
English: 
President Donald Trump and former Vice President
Joe Biden will be facing off in the 2020 presidential
election.
US presidents are, of course, voted into power
by the electoral college: a body of 538 electors,
pledged to vote on behalf of their state or
district.
Generally speaking, the plurality of a statewide
vote determines which candidate that state's
electors will vote for.
Although, in Maine and Nebraska, while two
electors are chosen this way, both states
also allocate one elector for each of its
congressional districts: Maine has two, Nebraska
has three.
To win the presidency, a candidate must secure
an absolute majority of at least 270 electoral
college votes.
In this video, I'm going to produce a few
different electoral college map projections
for the 2020 election.
I'll build a map based on the most recent
head-to-head statewide polling and fill in
the gaps with solid historical trends.
I'll also use this data to project a path
of least resistance for both major presidential
candidates.

Spanish: 
El presidente Donald Trump y el ex vicepresidente Joe Biden se enfrentaran en la campaña
electoral
Los presidentes son, obviamente, votados por el poder del colegio electoral; son 538 electores
que tienen que votar respecto a su estado o districto
Generalmente, la pluralidad de el voto nacional derermina que candidato de ese estado
sera votado por los cotantes
Aunque, en Maine y Nebraska, aunque haya 2 elegidos de esta forma, los dos estados
tambien colocan un elector para cada uno de sus districtos congresionales: Maine tiene dos, Nebraska
tiene tres
Para ganar la presidencia, un candidato tiene que asegurar una mayoria absoluta de al menos 270
votos electorales
En este video, voy a producir varias proyecciones del mapa electoral
para las elecciones de 2020
 
 
 
 

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
I'll also compare 2016 polling data against
actual election results to show the level
of reliability that polling, this far out,
has in determining presidential elections.
In the end, while I think it's too early to
draw firm conclusions, I hope my analysis
will help to answer some of the questions,
surrounding the question:
Who will win?
In order to produce our electoral college
map, let's begin by identifying the safe states:
states that aren't really likely to swing
from one party to the other.
On the Democratic side, states like California,
Washington, New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts
have a strong recent history of voting consistently
Democratic, and there is some polling data
for all of these states here indicating that
they're once again a lock for Joe Biden.
Adding all of these states to the map gives
the Democrats 141 electoral college points.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
Next we do the same for Republicans, adding
historical Republican strong holds, where
we also have at least some polling data to
support the precedent.
This gives Republicans a starting point of
97 electoral college points.
Of course, there are some states that are
almost inarguably safe states based on historical
precedent alone.
These are states where there isn't really
any good polling data, for the most part,
because no one's bothered to poll the states.
These are, generally speaking, smaller states
with a consistent presidential voting record.
Each has voted for the same party in at least
five out of the last five presidential elections.
For Republicans, this includes Idaho, Wyoming,
South Dakota, Arkansas and Louisiana.
It also includes the 2 electoral college points
that Nebraska as a state assigns, as well
as the state's first and third congressional
districts, each with one elector.
For Democrats, we're adding in Vermont, Oregon,
Rhode Island, DC, Illinois, Hawaii, and Maine's
1st congressional district.
Now, many of the states left are probably
not accurately described as toss ups or swing
states.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
There's probably not a strong chance that
New Hampshire or Nevada will vote for Trump.
Texas and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
are not likely to go to Biden.
But I hope we can agree that the states currently
coloured red or blue are not liable to change
party allegiance in the 2020 presidential
election, whereas both parties have at least
some chance of taking each of the states left
brown.
We do have polling data for each of these
brown states, which will allow us to determine
whether polls are currently favouring Biden
or Trump for a general election win.
But before we do that, there are a couple
of oddities to sort out.
First, there's the districts.
There's no presidential polling data available
for the individual districts within Nebraska
and Maine, which each cast their own electoral
college votes.
And, the 2nd congressional district of each
state has an inconsistent presidential voting
record.
In the case of Nebraska's 2nd congressional
district, it's voted Republican in four out
of the five last presidential elections.
The exception was in 2008, when, fearing a
potential electoral college tie, Barack Obama

English: 
heavily targeted the district with ads, and
managed to win it over.
Theoretically, Biden could do the same.
But, given that the district only went blue
under pretty unusual circumstances, I'd say
the district is likely to go Republican again
in 2020.
Next, there's Maine's 2nd congressional district,
which has voted for Democrats in four out
of the last five presidential elections.
This district is more complicated, because
the Republican to win it, was, of course,
Donald Trump in 2016.
You could argue that Maine's 2nd congressional
district constitutes a part of overall changes
to the electoral college battlegrounds brought
about in the Trump era.
There are larger trends where Rust Belt states
and Florida appear more Republican than ever
before, as the South West and Georgia have
generally moved toward the Democrats.
So, there's an argument that Trump is likely
to win the district again, but there's also
at least one good reason to suspect that the
Dems will take the district back: in 2018,

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
that very same district ousted a Republican
incumbent congressman in favor of a Democrat.
So, maybe the district will swing back, maybe
it will stay loyal to Trump.
I personally think of it as a total toss up,
but I'm going to mark it as Leans Republican,
just so we have a decision made on it for
the time being.
Another oddity is the state of Georgia.
Currently, the polling average is an even
split between Biden and Trump, so the polls
aren't indicating a lean in either direction.
This forces us to rely on historical trends.
While Georgia is clearly becoming a more Democratic
state, the last time it went blue in a presidential
election was in 1992.
With decades of reliable Republican voting,
to me, it makes sense to project that the
state leans Republican—even if the polls
aren't currently pushing in that direction.
But with all the states that now remain brown,
polling does give us some indication about
who the state will go for.
Let's begin by identifying the states that
lean most heavily in the Democratic direction.
Colorado is leaning heavily in the Democratic
direction, with a polling average of +16.67
percent for Biden.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
Minnesota has a slightly lighter Biden lean,
with +12%.
Next, New Mexico, plus 10.5% for Biden.
Virginia, +9.67.
Maine, plus 9.3.
Michigan plus 7.
Arizona, plus 5.67.
Nevada, plus 5.
Now, let's add some states with Republican
leans.
Iowa favours Trump by 4.67 percentage points.
Ohio gives Trump a 2 point advantage.
And, Texas leans Trump by about two thirds
of a percentage point.
Now, the next most Democratic state that has
yet to be added is Pennsylvania, which currently
leans toward Biden by 4.3 points in the polling
averages.
As you can see, that's enough to win the election
for Joe Biden.
He also leads slightly in the polling averages
in Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and
New Hampshire, all by less than four percentage
points.
Winning all of these would give Biden 333
electoral college points.

English: 
To win the presidency, the Republican's path
of least resistance, according to current
polling, would be to win all of these states,
including PA, giving Trump a final electoral
college count of 283.
To accomplish this, the incumbent would have
to win all states where Biden's polling advantage
is 4.33 percentage points or less.
Now is that actually possible?
Well, yes.
Obviously, the polling can change significantly
between now and November, and opinion polling
isn't everything.
To demonstrate just how much the polls from
around late May of an election year can vary
from actual election results, let's look at
swing states during the 2016 presidential
election.
Here is a chart comparing the election results
on the far right, to the polling averages
around this time of year in 2016.
For Colorado, polling averages were tied at
this point in the election cycle, but on voting
day, the state went to Hilary Clinton by a
healthy margin.
She got 4.91 more percent of the state's vote
than Donald Trump.
On down the line, though, you can see that
much of the shifts were not favorable for
Democrats.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
While Democrats enjoyed a healthy lead of
about 10% in the Michigan polls, Trump won
the state by less than a percentage point.
Even in states where Dems held on, much ground
was lost.
For instance, in Maine, Dems were leading
in the polls by nearly 15%--but Trump managed
to shrink that lead down to a less than 3
percentage point difference.
At this time of the year, Wisconsin, Florida,
North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa were
showing promise for Democrats in opinion polls.
But, by November, those leads were all lost:
every one of those states went to Donald Trump.
So, let's look at all of these states on one
chart.
The shift column here indicates the difference
between polling around this time of the year
and the final election results in 2016.
As you can see, while the overwhelming majority
of states shifted toward Trump, marked with
an R for Republican, some states did net gains
for his Democratic challenger: Nevada, New
Mexico, Colorado all shifted more Democratic
than predicted in the polling averages.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

English: 
So, what would happen if the results of the
2020 election shifted in exactly the same
ways from current opinion polling between
Biden and Trump?
Well, if we experienced the exact same polling
average to election day shift as we did last
cycle, Democrats would still hold on to Nevada,
Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota,
Virginia and, believe or not, Florida.
Trump would scoop up Texas, Georgia, North
Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
This is an interesting result, because it
means that the single-electoral college point
districts in Nebraska and Maine, that have
some chances of being up for grabs, could
actually play a serious role in the election.
If both go Republican, it would just barely
give Trump the 270 he needs to win.
Ditto with Biden.
If Nebraska's 2nd district remains Republican,
and Maine's 2nd goes Democratic, we'd end
up with a tied electoral college.

English: 
Even though we have not seen the electoral
college fail to produce a president since
the 19th century, it's not a totally impossible
situation.
A tied electoral college could also come about
through this distribution, as well, for example
which is not based on polling.
It's just a map I built from my gut before
I consulted the polls.
Even without an exact tie, the electoral college
can fail to produce an outcome, if you factor
in faithless electors.
In 2016, a total of 7 electors voted against
the party they were pledged to vote for.
In a tight race, that can make all the the
difference.
Even if a candidate win more electors than
all others, they still need an absolute majority—270--to
actually win the presidency through the electoral
college system.
If neither Biden nor Trump succeeds in securing
270, the election gets settled in a procedure
called a contingent election.
Basically, the House of Representatives would
elect the President, and the Senate would
elect the Vice President.

Spanish: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Spanish: 
 
 
 

English: 
This would probably result in a President
Biden and Vice President Mike Pence.
Strange to think that there's an actual possibility
that congress could decide...
Who will win?
