- New month, same story.
Canada real estate
prices are up once again,
but looking through the data,
there's more that can be learned.
We're seeing inventory levels
in some areas start to add up
and with mortgage
deferrals ending this fall
are we going to finally
see some downward pressure
on prices in Canada?
I'm gonna go over all that.
We're gonna break down
all the major Canadian
real estate markets,
because this is your September, 2020
Canada real estate market update.
(soft music)
Hey everyone. Welcome back
to Bald Park Real Estate.
My name is Matthew Pfeiffer.
I'm a real estate agent,
in Regina, Saskatchewan
but I'd like to be known
as your favorite realtor on YouTube.
So if you like education
real estate content
or these market updates,
which I'm gonna guess,
you might like I'm seeing as
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all about the Canada real estate market,
might as well go ahead,
hit the Subscribe button right now,
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of these market updates
plus the rest of my fantastic
educational content,
all focused on the Canadian
real estate market.
So first thing I always
do on all my videos
is a bad dad joke.
And this one might be my favorite so far,
and that is why don't
crabs give to charity?
It's because they're shellfish.
(comedy rimshot)
Now, before we get into
breaking down all the stats,
let's talk about what has happened so far
this year really quickly,
'cause we need to put this into context.
So the numbers make a little more sense
and that is the spring
market never really happened.
Well, it just got pushed back actually
is what ended up happening.
So normally March,
April and May are some of your
busiest months of the year.
Those sales that would
have happened March,
April, May ended up happening
in June, July and now August.
So now the question becomes
how much pent up demand
is left from that spring
market that got pushed back,
how much will low interest
rates continue to drive buyers
to buy more homes?
And of course the big unknown
that a lot of people are
talking about right now
is the mortgage deferral cliff.
And that is because mortgage deferrals
are ending in September and October.
We're going to start to
see inventory levels add up
if homeowners cannot pay the mortgages
and are forced to put them up for sale
or even be foreclosed on
and many Canadian cities
and you'll see it in the stats
are very low in inventory levels.
That's, what's kept this
a strong seller's market,
but as inventory starts to build up,
you're gonna see the shift
from a sellers market to a buyers market.
And when that happens,
prices will start to decline with it.
But enough of the chitchat,
let's go through each one of these cities
start in Regina, Saskatchewan.
Well, we didn't make it
back-to-back-to-back sales records
in city of Regina, but
we still had a big month,
347 homes were sold last month in Regina.
That means that June,
July and August of 2020
are three of the five
biggest months for sales
we've ever had in this city.
The big months we've had
has meant that the city
of Regina home sales
were up 6% where they
first is where they were
in 2019, 2019 we sold
more homes then 2018.
So we're seeing sales
numbers continue to increase.
How about listings?
489 listings came on the
market in the month of August.
That's obviously up versus August, 2019,
but the total number of homes
that have come up for
sale in 2020 versus 2019
is down about 9% in 2019,
so less listings come
on the market than 2018.
There's about 1,150 houses on the market
to start the month of September.
And that's been oddly
consistent all year long.
We've had about 1,150 to
1200 houses on the market.
So essentially a hundred
houses will come on
and a hundred houses will sell.
The increasing numbers of sales
and the decrease number
available houses on the market
has meant that prices have
started to climb in Regina.
Since January, 2020, our benchmark price,
which was around $240,000
has been continued to
increase every month.
It's now what $275,000
so it's up about 10% from
when we started the year.
Much of this is being driven
by single-family homes.
Those continue to be very
hot commodities in Regina.
We're seeing bidding wars,
multiple offers that type of thing,
which we haven't seen him
for a long time in Regina.
The townhouse market
is also fairly strong.
Condos appear to have stabilized,
but we're not seeing price
increases in the condo market.
So for Regina,
where we had a number of
years of declining prices,
it's kind of nice to
see increasing prices,
increasing sales, decreasing inventory,
kind of making more of a balanced
to slightly shifting to
a bit of a sellers market
in the state of Regina.
Okay, let's start off in Vancouver
where 3047 homes were sold last month.
That's up 26.6% from the year before,
but down 2.6% from the month before.
Listings are up 55% versus last year,
but they're down 2.1%
from the month before,
there was about 12,800 listings
on the market right now in Vancouver.
And we are starting to see
the number of apartment-style condos.
The levels of inventory are increasing.
Their benchmark price was $1,038,700.
That's up 5.3% from last year
and it's up 0.7% last month.
So with immigration being down,
the tourism market being down,
we're going to see how much of an impact
it's going to have on that
specifically apartment style
condo market in Vancouver,
where we are seeing
inventory start to stack up,
but single family homes
have continued to sell well
in Vancouver, moving on out to Calgary.
1,573 homes were sold
in the month of August.
That's down about a half
a percent versus last year
and it's down 15% versus last month.
Sales year to date in
Calgary are down about 13%.
Of course, Calgary is being hit
with the double whammy
of low commodity prices
and of course the overall
economic downturn.
252 new homes came on
the market last month
now that's up 8.6% versus last year,
but it is down 15% versus
the previous month.
There's just shy 6,500 houses
on the market right now
to start in Calgary.
Now that's down,
totally inventory is down
about 10% versus last year,
but it's up 9% versus the previous month.
Their month's worth of
inventory is right around 4%,
which is down just shy 10%
where they were last year.
And it's up though 12%
versus the previous month.
So Calgary saw kind of
a lower month in sales,
but their overall inventory
is still at about 4%,
which is right around that
balanced kind of market.
Their benchmark price is $420,800,
which is down about 0.6% from last year,
but it is up 1% from the month before.
Out in Edmonton, now I've got the entire
Edmonton Metropolitan
Area in our stats here
and they have 1,181 homes that were sold,
that's up 20% versus last year,
but it is down 13% versus last month.
There were 2,863 new
listings that were put up.
That's down just shy
of 4% versus last year.
And it's down 10% almost
from the month before.
There's about 7,500 active listings
in the entire Edmonton area.
Their total inventory though
is down 14 and a half percent
from last year and down almost
6% from the month before.
The average price is about $374,000.
That's up 2% from last year
and up just over 1% from the month before.
How about Saskatoon?
One of my favorite cities in
Canada, 461 homes were sold.
Now that's up 31% versus 2019,
but it's down 17% from the month before,
780 new listings came in the market,
that's up seven and a half
percent roughly versus 2019
and down 5% versus last month.
There's just shy of 1500
listings on the market right now.
So their inventory is down
about 30% from last year,
they've looked 3.3 months
worth of inventory,
but it has started to creep
up a couple of months ago,
they're around two and a half
months worth of inventory.
The benchmark price is
up 2% year over year,
just over $300,000.
And it's up 2% from the month before.
The single family home market
is very strong in Saskatoon,
especially in that 250
to $400,000 price point.
But interestingly enough,
apartment-style condos have actually seen
the most price appreciation
since the start of the year.
Continuing out East where
we're in Winnipeg now.
And of course the Blue Bombers
had to get the entire CFL
season canceled so they
could continue to say
they were Grey Cup Champions,
but they did have 1,945 homes sold
that's up 28.2% versus 2019
and that's up about 3% versus last month.
Just shy of 2,400 houses were
put on the market last month.
That's down about 1% from last year
and down 2% from the month before,
they've got about 4,200 active listings.
Now that's down 29
almost 30% from last year
and down 8% from the month before
their benchmark price is $336,000,500,
which is up 1% from last month.
And prices have been rising
when it peaks since January,
they've got very limited supply
and those low interest
rates continue to fuel
a fairly hot market in
the city of Winnipeg.
Out in Toronto, Canada's
biggest real estate market,
sales were up 40.3% versus August, 2019,
but they were down 3% versus last month,
about 10,700 homes that were sold,
listings were up 56.8%
versus August, 2019.
And they've got about 16,600
active listings right now
to start them month, that's
up to 5% from last year.
Year to date sales are
still down 4% versus 2019,
but listings year to date are
down 10% versus last year.
The benchmark price in
Toronto is up about 11%.
So it's about $890,700.
Now that is up about 1.2% from last month.
Interesting when I was
going through average sales
to asking price, it's still
around a hundred to 101%.
So essentially what sellers are asking
is what they are getting.
We are seeing strength
in the single family home
and townhouse market,
but apartment style condos
are showing signs of weakness,
we are seeing months of
inventory in that category.
Start to add up a little bit.
Overall though, across all
types of residential property
for sale, the months of
inventory is actually down
they're about 1.8% months of inventory
versus 1.7 months of
inventory from last month.
Like I said, the condo market
is starting to add up inventory
a little bit right now.
In the nation's capital,
2017 homes were sold that's
up 17% versus last year.
Just over 2,500 new listings
were added in August.
Now they have less than 2000 listings
on the market right now.
So they only have about one
month's worth of inventory.
Their average price is $550,000,
and that's up a staggering
19% versus last year.
And we're seeing increases
in prices in Ottawa
pretty much every single
month since started the year.
Ottawa is a very hot market in Canada.
So the Montreal Metro area,
which is one of Canada's hottest
real estate markets right now,
they have 4,800 homes that were sold.
That's up 39% versus 2019, it
is down 9% versus last month.
Their median price, sale
price for a single family home
was up 24% year over year
and up 2% from last month,
so it's $427,000 for the median price
for a single family home Montreal.
That 24% increase is the
largest year over year
increase ever in Montreal.
Part of that though is
because they had a huge push
in homes that sold that
were over a million dollars
and sideplated increase in
that medium price point.
There's 6,200 new listings
that were put on the market
in Montreal last month.
That's again is up 39% from last year,
it's up 5% from the month
before there's just shy
of 13,000 active listings
in Montreal area,
but that's down 21% from last year
up about 1% from last month.
Once again, supply is a
huge problem in Montreal,
especially in the single family market,
that's what's driving up prices.
In fact, Montreal would
probably sell more homes
if there was more inventory
to be available, to be sold.
Okay, let's finish things off in Halifax.
Now the Halifax market is
probably the hottest market
in Canada right now, 784 homes were sold.
That's up 20% from last year
and 6% from the month before,
there's only about 1500
active listings in Halifax
to start the month that's
down 46% versus last year,
there's less than three months
worth of inventory available at Halifax.
The average price is
up 9.4% year over year,
sitting about $343,000 in Halifax.
So did I miss a city that
you wanted to see covered?
Well, let me know in the comments below,
if I missed a city you want me to cover
in my next Canadian real
estate market update,
and I'll see if I can
get it added for you.
And a lot of people have asked
for a lot of the smaller
centers, don't worry.
I'm still working on that.
I'm trying to get a strong
data set to work from
so I can provide you continuous updates
on those smaller Canadian
real estate markets.
Looking back at the data from
the last couple of months,
there's three trends that
I see are very clear.
The first one is the pent up demand
from the spring market
that never happened.
Buyers that would have
bought March, April, and May,
decided to push that decision back
to June, July, and August.
And that's why we saw a huge
sales numbers in those months.
How much longer that pent
up demand can continue?
I'm not sure we are seeing
sales slow a little bit,
but that's also typical in the fall market
that sales will start to drop.
So I'm not sure if it's
pent up demand running out
or just the typical course of fall market,
starting to slow down.
We'll have more evidence to see
which way it's going in
the next month or two.
One area though of strength
is single family homes.
Those continue to sell exceptionally well
in virtually every market Canada,
buyers have decided to
move out of the city core
into the suburbs, buying
single family homes.
That of course means that downtown,
high-rise sell apartments
are a weakness in the market
a little bit right now.
We're seeing, especially
in Vancouver and Toronto
inventory levels start to
build up in those two areas.
And as inventory is build up,
you will see prices come down.
Now, are we going to
see more deferral cliff,
and also a whole bunch of
houses come up on for sale?
No, that's not gonna happen.
It's not like people are just
gonna put up their houses
for sale immediately
when their mortgage ends,
we are going to see inventory levels
probably start to build up though
when those mortgage deferrals end.
but interestingly, just
as I was sitting down
to record this, I was
reading some articles
and I'm going to put up our
quick little headline here,
so you can take a look at it.
But summary of the most recent news
that I've read is that
the number of homeowners
that had their mortgages on deferral
has continued to decline,
they've gone back to
paying their mortgages,
all of the big six banks,
except for Scotiabank for some reason.
So the number of mortgages
and deferral declines,
homeowners are going
back to paying mortgages,
but those mortgages are
coming through deferrals
are coming to an end
in September, October,
mainly some extent November and December,
but in the next 30 to 60 days,
we're gonna see very clearly
who needed mortgage deferral
or who just took them
because it was available.
And that's going to lead us to,
are we seeing higher levels of inventory
and declining prices
or waiting to see people going back
to paying their mortgages,
stabilizes the market.
Are you a first time home buyer?
And you got a bunch of
questions? Well, guess what?
I've got a home buyer series of videos.
I'm gonna put it up right here,
so you can take a look at it.
It's gonna answer all the questions
for you the first time home buyer.
But if you're just wanting to know more
about the real estate market,
maybe some tips on buying and selling.
Well, I've got great playlist for that.
I'm gonna put one of them up right here,
so you can check it out.
Thanks for watching guys.
That's your September, 2020,
Canada real estate market update.
