now will president Trump win a second
term in the White House or will there be
a new face in the Oval Office and what
can we expect with the 2020 US
presidential election exactly one year
away to find out Arirang TV spoke with
an expert who has an unrivaled ability
to forecast the winner for his analysis
on what promises to be a truly
blockbuster race
eun-jung min with the details with the
u.s. presidential election just one year
away key factors for predicting the next
president are based on the strength and
performance of their party that's
according to Professor Allan Lichtman
from American University who has
predicted the lost nine u.s.
presidential elections from 1984 through
2012
Lichtman says his predictions are based
on 13 factors including the economy
foreign policy social unrest and a third
party when asked about the latest
impeachment inquiry against President
Donald Trump the professor says it could
be a factor that affects the upcoming
election particularly if things go badly
in a Senate trial so while I'm not ready
to make a final prediction by finally
doing what is right morally
constitutionally and indeed politically
the Democrats have at least put
themselves in a much better position to
win next year Lichtman says there's not
much to predict from the ideology or
experience of the candidates but the
public needs to pay attention to the
performance of the administration
including foreign policy however he says
there has not been much success on
foreign policy for the Trump
administration so far the killing of
al-baghdadi was hardly noticed in the
United States most Americans didn't know
who he was
and on the other hand I would say the
policy in Syria which was denounced even
by Republicans than with jarl the
handing over of Syria in effect to Iran
al-assad and the Russians could well be
a foreign policy failure the professor
went on to say the election also depends
on the success or failure of the economy
and whether the Democrats emerge with a
charismatic figure who can attract
voters you know me
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