STEVE SANDFORD: My name
is Steve Sandford, some of you
may know me from last March, I
believe, when I came and spoke
and what we are going to do for
the next five weeks is a little
bit of a continuation of what
we started back then.
I came and spoke about the
history of the space program
with an emphasis on the
national benefits that we
accrued from undertaking that
great adventure, even going back
to 1917 in the beginning of
aeronautics in this country, at
least aeronautics research. And
so what we are going to do in
the next five weeks is give you
a much more detail about what's
going on now. What NASA is
planning and how we intend to
take the next steps into deep
space. Today we have got Pat
Troutman and Dan Mazanek here.
They are two of NASA's leading
space architects and have
been intimately involved in the
agency working with centers
across the country and planning
the best way to move into deep
space, building on what we have
done in the past and on
the capabilities of the
International Space Station that
we have up there now. I am going
to turn it over now to Dan and
Pat and let them take it away.
PAT TROUTMAN: Thanks Steve.
Sound check, can everyone can
hear me okay? 
DAN MAZANEK: And how about me?
AUDIENCE: Good.
DAN: All right. Welcome and
thank you for coming out this
morning. We appreciate you
coming. What we are going to do
is we are going to talk about a
future history of human space
settlement. Now this is a
history, this is we are going to
tell you how this might take
form, and what I am going to
first do, we are going to
talk about the first steps, the
Asteroid Redirect Mission and
the path to Mars, but before
that I am going to take you a
little bit farther into the
future. So, I want you to, and
first there is a disclaimer here
in that this presentation is
meant to educate and evoke
discussion, so at the end you
know hopefully you will have
some questions and we will be
able to answer those for you. It
doesn't entirely represent the
official position of NASA. There
is plenty of official
information, projects that we
are working on but certainly
this introduction is fictional.
And I want to take you, imagine
for a moment that you are in a
history class in the year 2776
and you are in a high school at
First Colony High School on
Planet Nova.
So, this is our history.
About 800 years ago our
ancestors here on Earth they had
the forethought the economic
fortitude and the know-how to
take the first steps in
spreading out from the Earth.
And this is our new home, Nova.
We have been here a 100 years.
It was originally discovered on
November 21st, 2012, now that's
in Earth years, and we have been
here 100 years since our first
settlers landed, that is about
eight Earth years. Soon after we
arrived all Earth transmission
ceased after we suspect because
of the transmissions, viruses
released from biological warfare
spread through the solar system.
Here is a picture of the sunset
on Nova and you can see it is a
triple star system. Nova orbits
Gliese 667C and it has two twin
stars. Nova as we called it is a
super Earth. It is about four
and half times the mass of the
earth. So the gravity is
little more substantial for the
colonists than we experience
here on Earth. It orbits, its
parent star will be 28 days,
so pretty much the orbit of the
Moon around the Earth. It is
located 22 light years away from
the earth. So, that's about
1.4 million astronomical units.
Astronomical units is the
distance between the Earth and
the Sun. So it is a little bit
of a haul to get out there. So,
how we got here? Three
generations traveled in 12
artificial space arks and
devoted their lives to the
journey to the Gliese system.
So you think about it, it is 22
light years away, it is even if
we can obtain a fraction 10th
the speed of light, which maybe
we can someday in the future, it
is a multigenerational trip. So
we had over 7000 colonists at
first departure, of course many
more were born and many passed
away during that time. More
importantly we housed all the
terrestrial life forms that
could be transported. So, it
wasn't just taking a colonist
and going to a strange new
world, we brought what we could
with us. It was constructed in
the Jovian System out of
materials process from asteroids
and the moons of Jupiter.
It utilized advanced fusion
propulsion using Helium 3 and
hydrogen extracted from the
Jupiter's atmosphere. And the
colonists left in the year 2560.
So, the journey took little over
200 years to make. So, I ask the
question that sets the stage,
why should humans explore space?
Certainly we live on a big
spaceship, we are constantly
going around the Sun every
365-1/4 days, we are on this
spaceship, and we are in a
single spaceship right now. We
have multitude of things that we
need to be concerned about, just
hazards in the solar system. One
of them is comets and asteroids
and I am sure most of you
probably are aware of this but
we live in, we kind of call it
cosmic shooting gallery, this is
just the leftovers from the
creation of the solar system and
it is not that these asteroids
or comets have any ill intent,
it is just they are orbiting
with us and every once in a
while they run into us, as a
matter of fact we had a very
close approach this last week
of a very small object, about 40
feet across that came by
2014CR, came just outside of our
geosynchronous satellite orbits,
but it is a constant reminder
that we have threats that come
in from outer space that we have
to worry about. So, we have to
worry about ourselves and what
we experience outside. This next
animation depicts what the final
state of our Sun would be, a
red giant, and how it will
eventually consume pretty much
out to the Martian orbit. Our
Sun is going to expand. Now
all estimates are this will be 4
billion years or so from now, so
we have nothing to worry about
from that standpoint, but
someday we will have to leave,
and you make, when we start
out we are talking about making
those baby steps to
begin that process.
PAT: Point here Dan is
yesterday there was a major
solar storm with a coronal mass
ejection, it is heading towards
earth, it is going to hit
tomorrow sometime. People as far
as south as Michigan might be
able to see the northern lights.
You might hear some stories that
it disrupted radio transmission
and power grid outages. That's
just a small sample of what
could happen. Back in 1869...
DAN: '65, the Carrington event.
PAT: The Carrington
event wiped out
what was the major telegraph
infrastructure of the United
States at that particular time.
So it is not just end-of-life
things we have to worry about.
We have to worry about the solar
system throwing things at us
constantly, and civilization is
a very fragile state sometimes.
It only takes a short little
push one way or another to get
us to the point where we cannot
actually sustain going into
space. It is not it wipes out
humanity, it removes our ability
to spread humanity's seed.
So, just a thought.
DAN: Yeah, and to
follow that up you know the
Carrington event they actually
were such a strong solar storm
that railroad tracks actually
ignited because they acted to
conduct the energy, the
particles that came in and of
course and the wood and the
tar and all the ignitable things
actually caught on fire. If we
had a similar circumstance like
that as Pat mentioned, you know
it would affect society. The
question is we have reached this
point in history of human kind
that we actually can contemplate
our place in the universe, and
we can actually go out, we have
proven that we can go to the
moon, I mean we know that we can
explore beyond the moon and Pat
and I are going to talk about
that. But what if the clock got
reset? What if we did have
something happen where we were
sent back to the Stone Age?
Would we ever be able to recover
back to the point we are. So it
is interesting to think, I like
saying to folks just to ponder
that the telescope and the
rocket and the final analysis
maybe the two most important
inventions in all of human
history because for example for
comets and asteroids first of
all we have to be able to see
them, we have to be able to know
where they are and of course we
have to get to them before
they get to us if we want to do
something about it. Similarly,
if we want to find an Earth like
planet in another solar system
and we are doing it right now,
we need telescopes, very
sensitive telescopes to be able
to see those, and of course, if
we want to get there we need a
rocket, it is going to be a
different rocket than we are
thinking of today but we need
the propulsion to be able to
span the gulf of interstellar
space. So, in some sense if we
as humans become compromised,
I will say extinct, because
species go extinct over the
periods of millions of years,
but if we don't have either the
extinction or the capability to
travel into space at some point
in the future we are kind of
stewards of all the life here on
earth. So to think about that,
we have that kind of that
responsibility and we have been
blessed with the tools to be
able to do something. So, with
that I am going to let Pat
takeover and kind of we will
pull you back to human history,
a more recent history of
space travel.
PAT: Yes, now you are in
Ancient Human History 101.
Since I am the oldest
I get to preach that.
Dan and I were actually
talking about do you remember
the Apollo Lunar Landing? Well
he was 2-1/2, he actually
remembers it when it happened. I
was 8, I actually remembered
when it happened and it both
involves a grainy black and
white TV sitting in some place.
And so it is, you go back,
that's the dawn of human
expanding their seed. And Apollo
is special in so many reasons.
First was because the tremendous
amount of capabilities we
developed in the leaps in
engineering and technology that
were accomplished in that time
frame, just phenomenal. We had
never duplicated that since.
There are reasons for that. Now
everybody says well it is
because we are in a race with
the Russians or we had infinite
money, there are other things
too that allowed that to happen
and that is reflected very much
in things like SpaceX now, who
is building rockets and making
great progress and doing great
things, they have a very young
fresh workforce. And believe it
or not back in the Apollo days
NASA's workforce was young 20
something stewarded by some
senior folks and they worked
80-hour weeks, they lived, ate,
and breathed it and by the time
we landed on the moon we were
spent. The NASA divorce rate was
incredibly higher than everyone
else's. We were on a war footing
with that. We wanted to achieve
that was never been achieved
before. We wanted to beat the
Russians and we dedicated
everything we had to do it and
we ran the whole marathon at
full speed. When we go the end
of Apollo the country was a
little tired, been there, done
that, the workforce was just
expired and actually we didn't
actually know what we wanted to
do after we got to the moon. We
were running so fast, we forgot
about the rest of the journey.
So, Apollo taught us a lot of
things and of course at the dawn
of the Apollo era NASA was not
a bureaucracy. It was a young
agile organization that didn't
care about sustaining about
itself for long periods of time,
by the time it reached the end
of Apollo NASA was full of
bureaucracy and we still are
today. So, I am not making
excuses, I am just saying that's
the way it is because throughout
the history of space exploration
Apollo to 800 years in
the future, bureaucracy and
political momentum and budgets
all play a factor into how we
have to accommodate and how we
have to plan for the future. So,
it is not nice, I want to talk
about rockets and warp drive and
all this great stuff. That's
only half the problem. It is
getting people, stakeholders,
Congressmen to understand that
this is worth doing and to give
up something old in order to do
something new. So you will see
this repeatedly happen through
history. So, I am going to tell
you a little about that. So,
Apollo, great wonderful thing.
After Apollo we got there and as
I said what were we going to
do? Well we had some leftover
rockets. We just spent 10 years
beating the Russians. We said
well maybe we ought to start
making good with the Russians.
So you this idea of reusing what
we got, making it do something
else and doing in a way with
international partners to help
get that political stakeholders
that we don't have, with just
the mission alone. So, by
involving other countries who
also want to invest in their
space program and give it a
reason for being it just adds
another reason to go do it. So
you will see this theme where
we take hardware, we reinvented
little bit, applied something
else and then we go do it with
the internationals because hey
if their congress wants to do it
and our congress wants to do it
then we will get to do it. So
the Apollo-Soyuz program was
that it was bringing the module,
uniting the two programs,
instead of running against each
other we were shaking
hands. After that came the space
shuttle. And what was really
interesting was this space
shuttle was well now we are
going to completely change our
mindset, we are going to do a
total reusable system, we are
going to launch 100s of times
a year, we are going to enable
this whole industry in space and
take care of it self. That's how
shuttle was sold. It didn't
really turn out that way. It is
an amazing engineering fete,
in fact much more so than the
Saturn V rocket, because there
were miles of wires and circuits
and stuff and 10s of 1000s of
millions of parts on this thing
and they all worked. Yes, we had
some setback and some tragedies,
but the fact that this system
could go up, go to space for
weeks at a time, come back, be
refurbished and used, it really
was something. But then we
had Challenger, we have had
Columbia. And the role of space
shuttle was muddied a little
bit. It is a reusable stuff, it
takes satellites and everything
back and forth, but then we
didn't want to jeopardize
people's life in delivering
cargo. So we had a separation of
crew and cargo and space shuttle
was only to be used for human
missions. So we have to have a
lot of human missions to use the
space shuttle for. We looked
across the seas to our friend
the Russians and we said you got
a space station, we got a truck,
let's get together. And we
did, that was the Shuttle Mir
Program. So I was fortunate
actually to be on the beginning
part of that particular program.
We went over to Russians and we
negotiated and we setup a series
of protocols and sure enough
they had launched space station,
we are flying back and forth and
we are going to experience and
now everyone is happy that we
are working with our friends. It
was an international experience
and we were learning how to
operate in space on Mir. Then we
did that a bunch, it's like
what's next? Well, Mir was
coming to the end of its
lifetime and so we built the
International Space Station. So
I am going to talk about that a
little bit. So right now we
are at, the space shuttle has
retired, International Space
Station is operational, what are
the next steps that we are going
to do? What is our journey to
800 years...I forget the name
of the planet...
DAN: Nova.
PAT: Nova, Nova, okay
I can remember that, Nova.
Dan and I carpooled
everyday back and forth to
Williamsburg and so we discussed
this as we carpooled and our
offices across from each other
and then he goes to all his
meetings all days, I will go to
all mine, then we get back in
the carpool and we discuss it.
So, this is how we integrated
this thing together. So, as I
mentioned politics is an
important part. Every new
President that comes into office
says, "Well, NASA now works for
me, I am going to tell NASA
what to go do." And what's very
interesting is that sometimes
the presidents have different
implementations, but their
higher level themes are very
close. This happens to be a
statement by President Obama,
and the points I want to point
out here is "our goal is the
capacity for people to work
and learn and operate and live
safely beyond earth for extended
periods of time, ultimately in
ways that are more sustainable
and even indefinite." That is
the path for expanding human
presence. Now what's really
funny is that eight years
beforehand George Bush came out
with the vision for space
exploration and he said the
exact same thing. But then the
spin masters came in and they
took George Bush's thing and
said, oh that means we are going
to go to the moon. And then when
Obama came in, the spin masters
came in and said, why go to the
moon, let's go to an asteroid.
And so we lose sight of the
long-term goal of extending our
seed and learning to work in
space by the short term goals of
well by the time my
administration is done we are
going to go do this, so I can
hang up on my wall and say I
allowed NASA to go to an
asteroid and go to the moon. You
need short-term deadlines in
order to focus. The problem is
that what you have to invest to
go to moon may not be the same
what you have to invest to go to
an asteroid, they are different
things. So, NASA does this game
where we sort of do the hula as
we are trying to adapt to the
current administration. So, our
strategy is something now called
the Evolving Mars Campaign where
we are focused on creating
infrastructure capabilities, a
logical path that it doesn't
matter if whatever the next
president it, doesn't matter it
is a red state or a blue state,
when he comes in 95% of that
work after we are done is not
going to have to get redirected
and refocused. So, our goal is
very much as the President has
said, doesn't matter whether it
is Bush or Obama, to find
the pioneering strategy for
extending human access and
operation capabilities in the
journey towards the Mars system.
So there is our horizon goal. So
we want to focus on going
towards Mars, because whether we
go to the moon, whether we go
to an asteroid, that's the next
hump, so it gets us across that
specifying certain things to go
to a certain destination. So we
are laying this foundation for
going to explore. So, it doesn't
really say that we are going to
land on Mars at this particular
time. You saw Mars vicinity in
the 2030s. Mars vicinity can
be interpreted as going to the
moons of mars, can mean to go to
the surface, can mean just
going in orbit. The President
did later come on and say after
he talked about extending human
presence, he said, well by the
way I want humans to go to an
asteroid in 2025. So he had to
have his own date. So that
immediately became Dan's
headache. So, we will talk about
that. So, my headache is Mars,
his headache is asteroids, and
we have to figure out how to
weave a thread between those two
because we don't want to invest
in one that doesn't enable the
other. So, we are all on the
same page no matter what we do.
These particular things are the
guiding philosophies. Bottom
line is it needs to make sense.
It needs to get to a point where
we are not dependent on Earth
and it has got to start off with
budgets and grow to something
based upon projected future NASA
budgets. So, this is not a plan,
this is a philosophy. So, it
sort of looks like this. On the
left is the International Space
Station, that's where we are at
today. It is complete for the
most part. 30-40 shuttle flights
to assemble and put that
together, nations across the
world including Russia who owns
half of the space station. They
have made some comments recently
about well, 2017 we are just
going to break our part off and
fly away, see you guys! There
are pros and cons to working
with the internationals because
relationships can change as we
are sort of seeing in the world
stage right now and we have to
adapt to that. So even though we
want to include an international
perspective in everything we do,
we still need a fallback plan if
key partners go away. So, that
is part of the strategy we are
putting in here. So, you see
these bubbles, the big bubbles,
International Space Station,
something here in the middle
of the chart called a proving
ground, that's the lower center
of the chart, and then bubbles
for the Mars moons, into the
surface of Mars. Each time we go
through those it is a large
capability investment. Billions
of Dollars to make the next step
happen. So, it sort of looks
like this. In lower at the orbit
space station is there, that
answers couple of questions. It
was initially put there to say
can international communities
work together to do a space
based engineering project of
the scale never seen before? The
answer was yes. We could figure
out and put together, take
everyone's parts they fit in
space and they all worked, much
more successful than a lot of
us thought. That was my first
project coming to NASA with
International Space Station.
Through 20 years it went from
notion to operation to being
finished. And now it is my job
to figure out what to do with it
afterwards. So, the first part
was engineering and operating.
The next part is how do we
use that as a test platform to
understand if people can survive
for years in space. And in space
there is no gravity, no one
can hear you scream and there is
radiation. So, we have to test
those things on space station,
so it is an ideal platform for
doing that. So, all this zero G
human factors, long duration
systems, highly reliable systems
at those space station to prove
that. The point is though as we
prove those out on space station
in order for us to go on to the
next destination, space station
should go away. Now what happens
with bureaucracies and
institutions? What is their main
goal in life? Survival, to
sustain themselves. So, we have
a space station, 10 years
we could be finished with
everything we need to do on
that. Nothing more. All the
research will be done and we can
move on to next target. Space
station doesn't want that.
The congressional delegation in
Texas and Alabama they don't
want that because their jobs now
that are running. So this is the
dilemma we face. We can't move
on to the next step unless
we can reduce investments in
current things. So it's a
challenge that we are always
fighting. But to get to that
next step, to get the on low
earth orbit you heard what Steve
talked about, investments in
major transportation functions,
that is the space launch system,
that is the Orion Space Capsule,
that is what Dan is going to
talk about solar electric
propulsion to get you into deep
space efficiently. Space station
was billions and billions of
dollars. Space launch system
Orion, high powering space
propulsion, billions and
billions of dollars, how do we
pay for these extra things? Now,
why don't we just decommission
space shuttle, so those funds in
the NASA budget use the pay for
space shuttle, now we are
reprogramming the pay for SLS
Orion and hopefully the asteroid
mission. So that's where that
box is being paid for. But if
space station doesn't go away
how do we get to this next box
on the right which the Phobos
and Deimos Mars orbit? This
is where we go from on space
station we are one day away from
the surface of earth. We just
hop in Soyuz, not an American
vehicle, a Russian vehicle,
because we had no American
vehicle that gets back and forth
space station now. We hop in the
Russian vehicle, get back to the
surface. When we are in the,
what we call the Cislunar space,
this area here, where SLS and
Orion will be able to take us
to, that's days to weeks away,
not bad. Our current systems on
space station are fully
sufficient to keep the crew
surviving. When you start
talking about years away from
earth and years away from coming
back which we were talking about
in the Mars system or going to
asteroids themselves in their
native orbits, we have a whole
new class of systems. So we are
on space station where we can
order up spare parts you know
every few months, they come up
on the Russian or the SpaceX or
the orbital delivery systems, we
can't do that in deep space. So
things have to be more reliable,
spars parts have to be common
and unique and we are not there
yet. Systems have to last long.
And then we have to get to
this next level of propulsion,
hundreds of kilowatts of power
pushing the spacecraft out to
deep space. So, it is like
a billion or so, couple of
billions, it is not 10s of
billions, its billions to get
out there. But we see going to
the Mars surface that is a huge
set of investment. As Steve said
we don't know how to get people
down there yet. These little
boxes you see on this page will
be hanging there for a while.
So, the next box will be hanging
will be this one here at
Cislunar space. Space station, I
just talked this whole chart
basically. We have to adjust
space station so we can answer
those questions about how people
survived long duration flights.
We need to increase the duration
of crew going to space station.
Right now they go 180 days, they
come down. That way all
the astronauts from all the
countries get to fly the space
station. That is not telling us
anymore the need about to go to
Mars. We need to have them up
there for one year, two
years, see what happens in this
environment. So again getting
the culture to accept the fact
that we need to go do that. As I
mentioned we can't go to space
station right now unless we buy
a Russian ticket. There is some
place in between that if this
geomagnetic storm that is coming
tomorrow could be a destination
of very much interest in this
geostationary orbit. Those
satellites up there, when I give
this lecture to teenagers it
horrifies them, I say one bad
solar storm it is going to knock
out your direct TV, your cell
phone, your GPS and your
texting. They go, my daughter is
going, oh no that's terrible. So
from a tax payer perspective we
need to guard and be able to in
geostationary orbit. Right now
it is not a destination because
it is seen as routine, but if we
are to lose one satellite
and it were to break apart in
geostation orbit it can ripple
and take out all the satellites.
So, the ability of sending
people and robots to geostation
orbit to repair spacecraft is a
very important thing. It is in
the back of our mind. So, when
you have seen NASA talking about
going to moon or the Mars are
also building systems to go
rescue our basic infrastructure
in geostationary orbit. It is
not glamorous and sexy but it is
very important. Next step along
the way, going towards Nova is
what we called lagrange points.
This is the place where the
space launch systems and Orion
can actually get to without
additional investments in
transportation, and these are
far side of the moon, lunar
orbit, places like this. And
this is where we get exposure to
the deep space environment, low
earth orbit we are protected by
the earth's magnetic shield
until the solar flux hits and we
are still protected, but not as
much. By having systems out in
deep space we will expose
them to radiation that Steve is
talking about and understand
the implication on human rated
systems for long durations. And
there are other activities that
we can do here like tele-
operating robots on the surface
of moon, laying the ground for
people to eventually go there.
Sample return where humans
actually bring back the samples.
Right now this is where we are
going to get to with our current
investments. This is that next
box we are talking about there.
So, we are talking about lot
of activities that go to this
position and Dan is going to
talk to about the asteroid
redirect mission that takes
advantage of this place too,
where it also comes together in
a reasonable place. The moon,
yes, we have been there
done that. Prior to the last
administration change that was
our destination as I mentioned
before and we worked very hard
with internationals to come with
integrated strategy, we are
all doing the same thing, we are
singing Kumbaya and we go off
to the moon and explore in a way
not that was like Apollo but in
a way that led the groundwork
for sustained presence, like we
are talking about with Mars and
Nova and these other places.
Again, next president came in
and they changed the destination
to an asteroid and this sort of
fell along the way, but going to
the moon would give us all that
experience with long duration,
low gravity systems and a dusty
surface. And if we don't do that
at the moon when we get to Mars
we will be trying it for first
time there. So the moon is still
very important in moving out
into the solar system.
♪[music]♪
Near earth asteroid.  So, this
is, I am not going to
be talking about this,
Dan is, because this is his
passion. He has been working
near earth asteroids, comet
asteroids, protection schemes
for his whole career, but it is
part of my job too in that they
represent a good segue between
what I am call the Cislunar
space and actually getting into
Mars. The problem with asteroids
is that each asteroid itself has
a predictable repeatable orbit
but we don't have opportunities
every two years like Mars, we
can't go every day of the week
like we can to the moon. So if
you miss a window for asteroid
you got to find another one.
So it is hard to plan human
missions decades out to an
unknown particular target.
Again, Dan is going to talk more
about that.
DAN: There's lot
of asteroids out there.
PAT: There's lots, they
are always coming along.
So the thing about
the asteroid mission is that
everything you need for an
asteroid mission you need just a
little bit more to do Mars, so
it is a great stepping stone but
it is only a one-year mission
at most compared to three-year
mission like we are talking for
the Mars. So a great next step
beyond Cislunar space.
Now, when the President
came out, last
President came out and said you
go to an asteroid, we said yes
sir, we are going to plan an
asteroid mission for you and he
didn't say I am going to give
you a budget increase to go do
this. So, we said, okay, what
would be an interesting target,
in the late 2020 timeframe,
and there is an asteroid called
Apophis that's on its way. So I
am going just going to let this
play, let you watch it and enjoy
it and I will tell you a little
about it later.
[video presentation]
PAT: So, we came up
with an asteroid mission,
then we costed it, 
now we can't
afford to do that. It is
very important why an asteroid
mission. You know of course we
talked about the whole planetary
defense nature and you now the
asteroids have shaped our past
and they will shape our future.
Asteroids offer a vast potential
of resources that allows
sustainably explore the solar
system. This particular one as
you say is going to come by very
close and then it is going
to pass through a gravitation
keyhole. And if it passes the
wrong way it could come closer.
Right now they don't think it is
going to hit. But you would want
to put a tracking device on
there. You would want to put
remote telemetry on there, you
want to put a science station on
there. You want to understand
your enemy, so intelligence is
very important. So if you had
to go to an asteroid, resources,
planetary defense a big reason
to go there. But the problem we
had is that back in 2009 when we
did that the budget wasn't there
to do that mission because we
had to bring all those systems
further in time until about
2028, we had to have both the
long duration habitats and year
in space, we are close but we
aren't right there. So, this
particular mode sent a crew to
the asteroid in this native
order. And one day Dan was at a
meeting out of JPL and they were
talking about, well what if we
just bring the asteroid back
to the humans and meet them
halfway. And hence was born
Dan's job and so he is going to
tell you about that now.
DAN: So, Pat said asteroids and
comets are my passion, I don't
know little passion of me has
rubbed off a little bit on Pat
here and all our carpooling.
Okay, so I am going to talk
about what I really think is the
key. We talked about what
motivates us to leave the earth,
and in simplest terms there is a
difference between exploration
and settlement or you can call
it colonization, some of you
would not like that word, but
staying. When we go out and
anything we do, you go explore
something, there is got to be a
reason to stay. You explore,
okay that's great, and you go
home. But if you go and there
is stuff there, there are things
that you can do, there is
economic potential that's when
you stay, and that's been the
history of mankind in terms of
exploration. So that is
really the key and part of the
motivation was the ability to
get to an asteroid and having
the funding and be able to
make those steps out into deeper
space. But another big part of
what I am going to talk about is
the potential for resources
and how those resources can be
harnessed to help us explore
space as well as potentially
return to terrestrial markets.
And I personally think that when
you start talking about economic
expansion, we were all driven by
that, whatever society we
are here on earth, we like our
stuff, we need stuff, we need
food, we need shelter, we need
clothing and we like all the
things that come along with
that, or come along as
entertainment and travel and all
that. But you have to have
an what I call an economic
backfill, if we go out in space
there has to be an import back
to the earth and export from
that location. So, I am going to
talk a little bit about NASA's
asteroid initiative and part of
it is to combine the aspects
of planetary defense and these
represent natural hazards just
like hurricanes or earthquakes,
but we actually can know about
them and actually do something
about them, and also the
asteroid redirect mission and I
will explain what that is in a
moment. But basically we have
adopted this grand challenge
within NASA to find all the
asteroid threats to human
populations and to know what to
do about them. And I think that
is actually pretty remarkable.
Like Pat said I have been
interested in working this
problem pretty much my entire
career at NASA. I started off
with the space station as
well and worked on some other
projects, but in my
undergraduate work at Virginia
Tech I became very interested
in process of impacts and mass
extinctions and the potential
for bad things to happen because
of stuff coming to us.
So, that's a huge jump, a
consciousness shift that I
think has happened within the
population because we understand
it and within NASA. So, I am
going to talk here about the
asteroid redirect mission and
there are basically three
components. There is an identify
component where we have to find
objects, characterize them and
know what they are all about and
as Pat mentioned they go around
the Sun just like the other
planets and sometimes they are
in good position, sometimes they
are not too in good positions.
But it is the same
characterization that helps us
find those that are a hazard
that might be a problem for the
earth. Then the second part
is what we call the robotic
redirect portion, and that's
where we use advanced propulsion
technology, in particular solar
electric propulsion and it is
kind of, it has a very high
specific impulse or ISP, you
might have heard that term, it's
basically the gas mileage that
you get out of your space
vehicle. So, it is very low
thrust but it can move for
every pound or every kilogram of
propellant that you bring
you can get a lot of momentum
transfers, you can move large
objects, albeit slowly kind of
like a tug, a tub boat. We have
got two options, one is to find,
characterize and capture an
entire small asteroid, kind of
on the level that kind of
came by somewhere around 4 to 10
meters, the one that came by
this past weekend. Something
that is not a threat to the
Earth. We actually have, you
know the Earth is really
cool, we have a couple of force
fields, first of all we have our
atmosphere that stops a lot of
stuff from coming in, and every
comet, every meteor shower that
you see during the year, you go
out and watch the shooting stars
that's our atmosphere stopping
these little pebble-sized,
pea-sized grains from coming in.
Sometimes we have bigger stuff,
the size of softballs or
footballs or even a car or house
every one in a while and they
burn up in the upper atmosphere.
So, we are talking about
bringing back an entire small
one or we have a second option,
that we call option B, of going
to a large asteroid and
capturing a boulder and bringing
it back off to surface, a
multi-ton boulder, and then
finally the third part is to
explore this return material and
we are going to bring it to a we
call it lunar distant retrograde
orbit, right now we are looking
about 70,000 kilometers from the
moon, the moon is about 400,000
kilometers away from the earth,
so it is on the moon side and it
is in a stable orbit so it will
stay there for 100s or 1000s of
years, but we are going to use
the SLS and Orion to send
crew members out to it to do the
first initial exploration. I
like to call it first contact
because we have the resources
and we expend the energy to
bring this material, this
asteroid material back and if we
bring the right kind of material
we can start looking at how we
can process it for resources
including water, metals,
radiation shielding to start to
look at some of these issues we
have in space. But I like to
call it first contact because we
are going to take that effort,
I hope there are a lot more
missions to this returned
asteroid material that we will
do. In a nutshell the objectives
of this mission are to prepare
for human exploration in Mars,
as Pat mentioned our horizon
destination, demonstrate
advanced solar propulsion,
enhance the detection, tracking
and characterization to defend
our home planet, so those are
the good things there. We are
also planning on demonstrating
basic planetary defense
techniques while we are at
the asteroid. And if we go to a
large asteroid then it is a very
relevant, it is on a relevant
size, something that could be
a threat, and if we go to a
smaller one we can see the
effects of that planetary
defense maneuver faster because
it is less massive and we can
extend that to larger asteroids
in the future potentially. And
then finally it is we have
adopted another objective that
we want to know more about
these celestial bodies for the
scientific knowledge and what
we can know about resources to
enable the mining of these
assets in the future. And there
are a couple of companies that
have setup in the United States,
Planetary Resources and Deep
Space Industries with the goal
of characterizing and mining and
one day returning materials to
the earth. This is a video...
[Start of video presentation]
FEMALE SPEAKER: NASA is
developing the first ever
mission to identify, capture,
and redirect a small asteroid or
a piece of a large asteroid
to orbit the moon, then send
astronauts to visit it and
collect samples in the 2020s.
Using telescopes in space
and on earth NASA and citizen
astronomers are studying the
thousands of near Earth objects
around us including good
candidates for the asteroid
redirect mission and hazardous
ones we want to track. The
robotic capture mission
will prove a number of the
capabilities humans will
need to reach Mars in the 2030s
including advanced solar
electric propulsion, an
efficient way to move larger
cargo payloads into deep space.
NASA is studying two robotic
concepts to capture an asteroid.
The first concept would fully
enclose a small asteroid in an
inflatable mechanism. The
second would use robotic arms to
retrieve a boulder from
the surface of a much larger
asteroid. Each concept also
provides opportunities to
demonstrate techniques to alter
the course of large objects in
deep space, a capability that
could help us defend earth from
impacts in the future. After
capturing an asteroid, the
robotic spacecraft will move
it to a stable orbit around the
moon where it could remain for
hundreds of years. The asteroid
will be so small that even if it
did approach the Earth it would
burn up in the atmosphere and
disintegrate before it could
reach the surface. In the
2020s astronauts aboard an Orion
spacecraft and space launch
system rocket will launch
towards lunar orbit gaining a
boost in speed from the moon's
gravity to rendezvous with the
asteroid. The journey will be
the farthest humans have ever
traveled into deep space. Orion
will dock with the
robotic spacecraft carrying the
asteroid. Astronauts will
conduct space walks to collect
samples of the asteroid that
could hold clues to the origins
of our solar system and life on
earth. The crew will return home
aboard Orion having ushered in
a new era of human space flight
and scientific research.
Groundbreaking work is underway
to prepare for these human
missions to deep space. This
year NASA will conduct the first
uncrewed flight test of Orion.
Aboard the International
Space Station, NASA and its
international partners are
learning how humans can live and
work in space for long periods.
Astronauts on earth are using
underwater environments to
test spacesuits, tools, and
techniques they will need to
explore an asteroid. The lessons
we learn and new technologies
will be proved through the
asteroid redirect mission
will put humans
one giant leap closer to Mars.
DAN: We can see that last image,
that is actually using
the asteroid
redirect vehicle to use the
technologies that we develop to
head to the Martian System. So I
think that animation--that video
does a nice job of pulling
everything together. She said a
lot of things I said, so she
repeated in there. But again
these are the two mission
concepts, capture a small
asteroid or a robotic boulder
capture, and again if we go to,
if we use Phobos and Deimos as a
gateway to the surface of Mars
they are either very large
captured asteroids that may have
come off of the Martian surface
from a collision. Their origin
is still being debated among
scientists. But one way or
another they are proxy for
asteroids. So, as we move out
and we understand how to
interact with asteroids, we send
humans to asteroids, if we use
the Martian moons we will gain a
lot of knowledge there and
information. I am going to kind
of skip this a little bit, but I
will say that we have currently
known candidates for both
options, several small objects,
and then we have objects that we
have sent, robotic precursors,
one asteroid Itokawa, this was a
3000 scale model of Itokawa, so
you are talking about four
or five football field in
dimensions. It is about 500
meters across. And Apophis that
you saw in that video is about
325 meters across, these are
very large bodies. We have also
got 2008 EV5 and Bennu,
this is a model 2008 EV5
to the same scale
and this is one of the
potential targets for
the option B and we have got
Cyrusrex and Hayabusa 2 both
traveling to large asteroids to
give us reconnaissance for that
mission. You can kind of see
here this gives you a relative
scale, there is Itokawa, there
is the asteroid redirect robotic
vehicle and in terms of how
much we can bring back, we
potentially can bring back with
option A up to 500-1000 tons of
material given the right
asteroid. We can do that with
option B as well but we have
to contend with pointed off the
surface, so right now we are
looking at something that's
probably about 50 tons. Well
if you compare that to what we
returned so far from
any location it is pretty
outstanding. It is just kind of
mind-boggling to think we might
be moving around even 25 tons
of material. It just so happens
those are the same types of
masses that we need to move
around like habitats and landers
and things like that. So there
is the applicability of using
the spacecraft, the ARV as a
space tug, and of course this
just makes the point that if you
go to a metallic asteroid versus
a stony asteroid or carbonaceous
target, the densities are
different, so the size relates
to a different mass. Styrofoam
ball versus a bowling ball, size
and density really matter.
And of course the carbonaceous
objects they may have up to 20%
water contained in them locked
in hydrated minerals that you
can extract and process. This is
just a comparison of an ARV to
a human. To give you an idea of
the solar rays we are talking
about it is a 50 kilowatt SEP,
which in order of magnitude
larger than anything we have
commercially flying in
geostationary orbit, so we are
pushing the technologies there.
It is about half a football
field for this upper
configuration which we call the
ROSA Rays, the rollout solar
rays and the megaflex which are
king of a Chinese fan type
deployment is shown in the
bottom. It is a large spacecraft
when you put the solar rays out
fully extended. We are doing
solar ray technology work in
2014, there are examples of
both of those technologies with
humans in the scales, you can
see how large they are, and it
is big, it is not definitely as
large as space station, it is
still a large space craft.
Working on electric propulsion
and this is really the key. We
could not contemplate doing this
with chemical propulsion,
meaning like liquid hydrogen,
liquid oxygen rockets things
that power the space shuttle and
the Apollo. This is really a
new technology that has been
demonstrated. We actually have,
Dawn has visited Vesta, it is a
robotic spacecraft and it is on
its way to Sirius, which used to
be an asteroid, it is now a
dwarf planet like Pluto, so
Pluto got demoted and Sirius got
elevated. But there maybe an ice
sheet maybe 100 kilometers thick
on Sirius and someday it could
provide an oasis, literally an
oasis in the main asteroid belt
for exploration. We are also
doing a bunch of internal risk
reduction tasks for both
options. The deployable bag that
you saw in the animation and the
robotic system for option B. I
am running a little bit short on
time, so I will just say that we
have looked at different
operations and different
configurations for the option
B and I have been leading the
studies here at Langley in
that effort, here locally in
Virginia. I have got an
animation that shows the
process.
[video presentation]
For ARV we are trying to take
what we call a modular approach.
Just like a tractor trailer has
a cab and the trailer, to be
able to break it apart we want
to be able to have a spacecraft
that we can use for other
missions, like slow boating
material around the solar
system, so we have got this SEP
module and a mission module and
those form really a spacecraft
bus. You can do what you want
with it. You can do a scientific
mission. You can push a habitat
or a land around, push some
fuel somewhere, but we have this
capture module that we would put
on the front for either option
and then you have some sort of
common interface so you can put
other types of modules on it. So
one of the things talked about
was the ability to do planetary
defense demonstrations when we
are at the asteroid. And I think
this is really a very important
and key aspect of this mission
in addition to the exploration
value and the resources, we can
demonstrate, we are planning for
option B we demonstrate what
we call an Enhanced Gravity
Tractor. So, gravity tractor, it
uses Newton's Laws, and you kind
of saw in the video in the
animation, just go into a halo
orbit around and station
keep with the asteroid. You can
standoff or go into an orbit.
But as the asteroid is turning
the spacecraft is just there.
And the two actually attract
each other very, very minutely,
but it is enough that if you can
hold the spacecraft in one
position it literally is a
gravity tractor being that
will move the asteroid. Now the
bigger the asteroid the harder
it is to pull but of course you
can just like a team of horses
you could actually put multiple
spacecraft in that orbit and
just pull and provide more of a
force on the asteroid. And what
we are talking about doing in
option B is going down to the
surface and actually picking up
a boulder off of the surface
that is many times heavier than
the spacecraft. Now we have got
this massive spacecraft in orbit
and that amplifies that tractor
being effect to the point where
it may take, for a very large
asteroid called Itokawa it might
take 100 years or more for that
spacecraft to move it enough to
make it miss the earth with that
with a boulder or material you
could collect a boulder you
could scoop material in the
final planetary defense mission,
but if you could get about 250
to 300 tons of material off the
surface you could move that same
asteroid in about three or
four years. If you had multiple
spacecraft you can do it in just
couple of years. So there is a
lot of power in that ability to
go down to surface and get mass.
We can also use the ions
that actually come out of the
thrusters to actually hit the
asteroid and literally push it
with the exhaust and that is
another technique and the big
advantage of that is you don't
have to touch the asteroid, you
don't have to come anywhere near
it. Another technique that is
called a Kinetic Impactor. We
can also demonstrate with option
B, we don't have that in the
baseline program right now
because of the additional cost,
but basically the ARV would
watch as another spacecraft came
in and impacted the surface and
then we could measure and see
what the effect of that was.
This is probably the most viable
short-term technique in the
planetary defense system or set
of techniques that we could use.
Another one is surface ablation.
That uses a laser beam, kind of
like the ion thrust hitting it,
but now you focus a laser beam
on it, you burn off portions of
the asteroid and that causes a
momentum change. And I could
talk for an hour on all of
these. But we don't
have an hour.
PAT: Yes, you can. He does
it every night on the drive
home from work. 
DAN: So, I don't know
how to respond to that because
he is right. I am just going to
close with this and turn it back
over to Pat to finish up. There
is a distinct connection between
the threat that asteroids are,
the hazard, I only like to use
the word threat because that
kind of makes sound like an
enemy, they are just doing their
own thing, they are not trying
to hit us, we just happen to be
in the wrong place at the wrong
time, but the asteroid hazard is
also combined with what I talked
about, the economics of space.
They are a valuable resource,
they may have everything from
water which we need, to metals,
platinum metals that we may need
on earth some day, hopefully we
never have to import water from
space, that we can manage our
resources in that manner, but
there maybe materials on
asteroids that we have never
seen before because of the
conditions of the microgravity
and the conditions that they are
created. So there is a lot of
potential there and I will just
close with what I think is kind
of a key aspect is, right now we
talk about planetary defense, we
are talking about doing
techniques, but we don't have a
dedicated planetary defense
system. It is a very infrequent
hazard. It could happen tomorrow
but not that we know of.
We don't know that there is
anything on a collision course,
but for example comet 2012A1
sighting spring is going to make
a close pass by Mars in October
of this year, so close we are
taking NASA agency and other
international partners are
taking precautions for the
satellites that are in orbit
around Mars to make sure there
are no effects from the comet.
But you have got a fairly large
body coming in that we just
found 18 months ago or so. So,
there is the ability to have
kind of an integrated solution
and the analogy that I give is
bulldozers for snowplows. You
need snowplows to plow the roads
during a snowstorm, right? It is
a natural hazard that we have to
deal with. Problem is if you
try to sell snowplow to say the
Tallahassee Municipal
Government, they are going to go
we don't need those, we have
never had a snowstorm. Well, not
in the recent past but there
actually has been snowfall in
Tallahassee, climate changes,
we could have a change in the
weather. But you can't sell them
bulldozers. But you can't sell
them bulldozers. You can
do construction, you can be
productive and in a pinch you
can turn those bulldozers into
snowplows if you ever had this
blizzard come along. So, it's
that idea of leveraging the
capabilities that we have for
human exploration and for mining
the resources of asteroids that
could one day help us with
the planetary defense aspect as
well. So, there are
opportunities and
extensibilities for asteroid
mission in addition to planetary
defense, the science and the
extensibility. So, again the
Mars forward path and I am going
to turn it over to Pat is what
the asteroid redirect mission
helps us focus on in the near
term within the budgetary
constraints that we have at this
point. And with that I will give
it to Pat for the closeout.
PAT: You went longer than me.
DAN: I was supposed to
go longer than you.
PAT: All right, so we start
at Nova, we went back to low
earth orbit, we progress to geo
space, we have gone to Cislunar
space, we have gone to asteroid,
our next step along the path to
the future is Mars.
[video presentation]
Mars is a good candidate
for establishing the human
seed someplace else.
It has abundant resources
on its surface. It
has glaciers with
water, it has all the natural
materials in there. It might be
hazardous to human life, we are
not sure about that, that's why
we have to go check it out with
robotic missions. Huge problems
in getting there, Steve
mentioned, getting to the
surface. Mars atmosphere is
very, very thin. It is like
being at the top of Mount
Everest or something worse than
that. Its gravity is one-third
that of earth, so it is twice as
much as the moon. So parachutes
don't work well and if I am
using rocket engines like I
am doing on to get to the moon
because there is so much more
gravity, that doesn't work too
well either. So we are sort of
stuck somewhere in between. So
can give a big lecture on that.
So, it is hard to get to the
surface that requires a leap in
investment and capability, but
that leads other things. There
is the Mars system. Now, for the
sake of time I am going to skip
this entire section. Dan did an
excellent job of talking about
how we will use solar electric
propulsion to get there. So I
am going to summarize the next
three slides in this way. If you
look at this chart and you look
at the little things where the
thrust is coming out, those are
basically two of his vehicles
that he uses to go get an
asteroid. If you look at the
big solar rays on there they are
much bigger than his, because
Mars is farther and harder and
we are taking people there and
back and they are lot heavier to
get there, not heavier
coming back. So, there is a good
synergy as Dan mentioned,
because how we get people back
and forth the Mars and what we
are exploring with the asteroid
redirect mission. By the way
this vehicle is fully reusable.
You fill it up and Cislunar
space, it takes all the way to
Mars, everything comes back
gets refurbished and reused in
Cislunar space. We are not
throwing away things like we
used to do. This is not Apollo.
Because if we are going to go
beyond the solar system to Nova
you need spaceships that
last long time and are reusable.
So this is what we are trying to
infuse into our architecture.
So, another course we will talk
about this. But let's talk about
what to do while you are waiting
to get to the Mars surface. Does
everyone know that Mars has two
moons, Phobos and Deimos? Some
people think they are captured
asteroids. Some people think
they are part of the creation
process of Mars itself,
answer is we don't know. Almost
everything we know about
those moons is captured in these
pictures. We have got pictures.
We got some spectrometry. We
have never sent a probe there.
The Russians have tried to send
two probes there, each one
has failed. But they offer such
unique platform because you can
land on these, they are very,
very micro-G bodies, you can use
the bodies to protect you from
the galactic radiation that we
have in space, so we solve part
of the radiation problem by
actually going to these moons or
the surface of Mars, but these
again are lot easier to get to.
So, one cool thing about them is
that, as I said they are micro-G
bodies, so me with the spacesuit
on I would weigh 0.3 pounds on
the surface of Phobos. An entire
50,000-100,000 pounds in English
units weighs 63 pounds. 
So, moving around
these planets is
incredibly easy to do. So
basically if I were on the
surface and I did this
I could go six or
seven miles in one
leap and I do it slowly. In fact
if I did it well enough I would
go into orbit and I would leave
Phobos and go into Mars orbit,
but what that buys you is the
ability to navigate to explore
with very little energy, very
little propulsion, you just have
to be careful. So what you
see in the bottom here is an
engineering sim showing growing
going from there is a larger
crater called Stickney crater
and it is a big place, it looks
like someone took a shotgun to
it. There is a habitat in there
and they are doing a 30-minute
commute. The same time that Dan
and I go back and forth from
Williamsburg to Hampton they go
miles in this area. So they just
did a hop, basically a 4 meter
per second hop and they are
flying up, they are going over
from this side of the moon to
the other and they can fly those
crater. See little shadow down
here, they are just going to get
close the crater rim, as they
get to the crater rim they are
going to spin on by and you will
see the shadow fall away. These
are very daredevil type pilots.
Now here is another view, this
is the Hollywood view they call
it. There is the habitat down
the bottom of the crater, it
gives you a rough approximation
of scale. And there is the
vehicle, looks like a little
bug, all it does is it pushes
with its legs and does a little
thrusting. And there it is
shooting right over the rim of
the crater. And lo and behold
what is this thing you see here
coming up here? You guys heard
about the monolith on Phobos?
That is actually to scale. It is
about 100 meters tall and it is
a big rock thing sticking out
the surface. We don't know what
it is. It could just be a
rock that hit into the moon and
landed sort of funny. It could
be something from space 2001, we
just don't know. So there is
abundant science there on Phobos
and Deimos. In fact, impacts
on the surface of Mars from
asteroids throws up regolith,
so there are pieces of Mars on
Phobos. 50 million years from
now Phobos' orbit is going to
decay, it is going to breakup
or it is going to impact the
surface of Mars. Maybe we want
to know what is going to happen
to Mars, understanding Phobos is
doing to tell us that. So lots
of good reasons to go there.
Lots of cool ways to explore.
So, that's why the moons of Mars
will be our next step. We are
not going to go direct to the
surface, we are going to go to
the moons of the Mars, stage
ourselves and get ready to go to
the surface. Operate robots on
the surface of Mars while we are
in the moons of Mars. That's
the next step. So, Dan already
talked about this. He pointed
out there is the Mars, the
Phobos vehicle, there is the
asteroid vehicle. 
This is early 2020s,
this is mid 2030s.
They look about the
same. So, again
we are investing to
go multiple places.
Mars, the way you
want to do Mars
in a sustainable way. So,
we are rethinking Mars.
Before the last couple of
days we have been thinking Mars
missions, we will go down, we do
some science, we bring out some
rocks and then we never come
back to that site again and we
throw everything away. That's
not extending the human seed. So
we will take advantage of the
resources on Mars, go to the
same spot over and over again,
build infrastructure, extend our
presence, but that's child's
play because the next place you
want to go is the Jovian System.
AUDIENCE: Can I ask  a question?
PAT: Quickly, yes.
AUDIENCE: Continuing in this
scenario let's make believe I am
King Ferdinand and you are
Christopher Columbus.
You said before you
had a budget, so how
much money do you want?
PAT: You can't quote
me on this but I did
see some budget analysis
today that said if we were to
terminate space station before
2028 we would have enough budget
within the existing NASA
guidelines to go to Phobos in
the mid 2030s.
AUDIENCE: I'm King Ferdinand
and you are asking me for money.
You want to go someplace.
Give me a dollar amount.
PAT: The current NASA
budget is $8 billion a year,
that's the current NASA budget,
$8 billion a year, I was trying
to get there, that includes the
launch vehicle development and
everything else.
AUDIENCE: In how many years?
PAT: From now all the
way to the surface of Mars,
what is that, 20 years from now,
that is 20 x 8, $160 billion.
And if we don't go anywhere
it is still $160 billion because
of the political aspects of it.
So, we want to take that
$160 billion and do
something good with it. And so
now let's talk about 20 years
beyond the surface of Mars,
Jovian System. Dan showed a
video where the Sun turns into
a red giant. Eventually if that
ever happens it is actually
start getting warmer rather than
ice in the Jovian System, for a
time. Jovian System is full of
hydrogen, water, it has moons,
cleistogamy that are all made
out of ice and water. So what
you are seeing here is little
animation of mining ice and
using it as a way point to go to
future destinations in
combination with the asteroid
belt and other resources in
the solar system. Dan showed you
configurations where we had
kilowatts of power. We need
megawatts of power. Nuclear in
space power or some magic fusion
or something like that that
comes along to get to this point
where we could go back and forth
to Earth and power these large
solar system class spacecraft
that have rotating sections and
the crew buried in hydrogen
tanks to protect them from
radiation, you have to go to the
next step because the journeys
are long even with all that
power, but that's an interim
step to what we are talking
about here, which is other solar
systems. So, we start
smaller orbit, we progress our
capabilities, we get to the
point where we are going from
years to decades and centuries
and travel.
So, we want to end up where
we started that right now
as a civilization we are pretty
at our peak from a technology
perspective. We can
argue politics and social and
stuff like that. Technology
we are really, really good.
There is enough
financial means in the
world if applied properly to
begin doing this. We don't need
budget increase, we need budget
redirection, budget focus. But
as we all know this window
doesn't last forever. Crisis
happen, Ebola, whatever it is
and this is something as we have
shown takes decades and
generations to actually
accomplish. So if you say
well lets wait until the killer
asteroid comes or lets wait
until a million years for the
Sun goes red giant, it is going
to be too late by then because
maybe we will pass through this
opportunity we have right now.
So, one day we have to leave
the cradle, we can't stay in it
forever. So I think our point is
that this is how we would like
to proceed. This is our plan,
this is our strategy and with
that we have a few minutes for
questions. Yes sir?
AUDIENCE: How do
you life is going to
be more sustainable on
Nova or whatever it is?
PAT: We don't. And in fact
I pretty much say
that any natural disaster that
happens on Earth, Earth will
still be the most habitable
place that we know of, it still
will be, however, if there is
decay of civilization, Earth is
still habitable but civilization
might be at a better peak some
place else because of having the
cross pollination. So, you are
right Nova will be a, if we send
a probe out there we are not
going to know, but remember we
are going spaceships that keep
people alive for 200 years, so
if it is a bust you are just
orbiting Nova or extracting
resources to figure out another
plan. 
DAN: Yeah, let me just add.
We are finding more
and more planets every day.
I mean literally we
have got more
advanced telescopes. One of the
aspects is if we find the right
planet, okay, again Red Giant,
Sun stops sustaining light,
that's probably billions of
years, but orbiting a red dwarf
as actually Nova does it is a
much longer lived star, tens of
billions of years. So there are
different classes of stars that
have longer lifetimes. If you
find the planet what they call
in the 'goldilocks zone', right
place for liquid, water, and
right temperatures can exist, it
is finding it.
AUDIENCE: It is wrong for them
to use the word indefinite.
DAN: Well, yeah, technically
indefinite, there is
no such thing, you always have
to move from one solar system
to another in the big scheme.
AUDIENCE: You talk about it
takes a long time to get to the
outer space, but what is the
minimum age when you send them
up there?
PAT: This is why the pictures
that we showed here,
these are big self-sustaining,
these are generations that are
living, now the good news is
that the older you are the
better you are as a space
candidate because the bad
implications of radiation only
impact you 20-30 years after you
go, so statistically speaking
older people going have a less
chance of developing cancer
and bad things because they will
pass before they actually take.
So, we always say the ideal
astronaut candidates are
women from Nepal who are already
senior citizens, they are
perfect to send to space.
DAN: To add to that,
Pat is talking from
an astronaut standpoint. I
wanted to be an astronaut
at one point and that's
never going to happen.
I would like to see
space opened up to all of us,
and that's going to happen
through commercial endeavors,
etc., just as everything has
happened. I personally think one
day we will colonize the moon
and I would love to see, before
I retire or after I retire, I
would love to see a retirement
community on the moon. You know
you think about how you would
react in 1/6th gravity.
You know you wouldn't
have all of the issues.
You could go out and
play golf and play basketball.
PAT: Everyone hits a 500
yard drive easy. So space is
for everybody. We just have
to find the right way to get it.
PAT: We are at the explorer
stage, explorers
were the rough guys who
says they knew the
risk was really bad, we are
trying to get explorers to be
pioneers, and that's a different
mindset right now, that
actually, we want to get to
a point where everyone can
eventually get there going.
Right now we have six astronauts
in space that one out of billion
people in the world get to go to
space. We got to up that ratio
a little bit. 
AUDIENCE: Whether
you breathe the fact or go up...
DAN: Are there any
other questions?
Oh yeah, back there,
yes sir.
AUDIENCE: If you are
looking for another location
somewhere in the universe. What
is the likelihood that you find
something and it is actually
habitable. This is the goal
right, to find life forms? If
there aren't life forms,
there are these types?
DAN: Very possible.
Okay, so, again right
now we don't have any proof that
there is life beyond the Earth.
That's just the fact. We haven't
discovered it yet. My personal
opinion, the galaxy, the
universe is probably
teaming with life. So, you are
absolutely right, we kind of
avoided that question, probably
an entire philosophical
discussion to be had.
PAT: In fact about Mars.
DAN: Yeah, and Mars itself.
There could be microbial
life on Mars.
How do we deal with
that, okay? That's
a big question and we need to
start talking about that and
learning that now so that we are
ready. Typically what happens is
whoever is exploring and
colonizing adversely affects the
life forms that are there and
there can be vice versa.
PAT: As history has shown.
DAN: But when it comes
down to it, you know in
terms of survival and extension
of human and other species on
Earth you know that's
where there is a philosophical
discussion about it and
hopefully you can find a planet
that is not inhabited or that
you can share that planet that's
something to be talked about.
PAT: And frankly you probably
will not know until you get
there. That's the sad part.
DAN: I mean they are
already talking about
sending probes to planets
and other solar systems.
It is going to take a while
with our current technology
to actually get there but you
know eventually that's what
we would probably do.
Thank you all very much.
[Applause]
STEVE: Thank you guys.
That was great. I hope
everybody is now interested
in where we are going in deep
space. Next week will be Orion
and so hope to see you here.
[Applause] 
macaroni
