Well I was spending time with the Air Force
because I was interested in writing about
the future of warfare in space.
And most people don’t realize but we have
an Air Force Space Command and we have a United
States Space Command.
This sounds like something out of science
fiction but we have them and we have them
because someday we’re planning to use laser
beams and directed energy weapons in space
to attack enemy satellites.
So I was spending time with the Air Force
Space Command visiting bases, looking at all
this new high tech weaponry and the guys who
I was hanging out with started telling me
stories of the Cold War.
Many of them had served as launch officers
in intercontinental ballistic missile control
centers during the Cold War.
And it was a natural career path.
If you knew a lot about missiles to go into
the Space Command, and they told me some extraordinary
stories about accidents involving our nuclear
weapons that I just had never heard before.
And one of the stories that they told really
stuck in my mind and it was the story of an
accident in Damascus, Arkansas in September
of 1980.
And it just so happens that, you know, we’re
doing this interview on September 18 and it
was on September 18, 1980 that this accident
happened.
There were workers working in a missile silo
doing routine maintenance, the kind of thing
that, you know, they did all the time without
thinking about it.
And the missile in the silo was a Titan II
missile, the biggest intercontinental ballistic
missile the United States ever built.
It was taller than a ten story building.
And while they were doing this routine maintenance
they were standing on a steel work platform
near the top of the missile.
And one of the guys reached over with a wrench
handle with a socket on it to unscrew a pressure
cap on the missile and as he reached over
the socket fell off of the wrench handle and
the socket fell in between this narrow gap
between the missile and the steel work platform
and it dropped about 80 feet, it hit the side
of the silo, ricocheted and then hit the missile.
And when it hit the missile it tore a hole
in the missile’s metal skin and suddenly
thousands of gallons of highly flammable,
highly explosive rocket fuel were filling
the silo.
And the Air Force literally had no idea what
to do.
No accident like this had ever happened before
and they had to figure out what to do very
quickly because on top of this missile was
the most powerful nuclear warhead that the
United States ever built.
This one warhead on this one missile had more
than three times the explosive force of all
the bombs used by all the armies in the Second
World War combined including both atomic bombs.
So I was told this story by this Air Force
officer and I just – I became obsessed with
it.
I couldn’t believe that I’d never heard
about this before.
I couldn’t believe how close we came to
a major nuclear catastrophe that would have
consumed much of the state of Arkansas in
firestorms.
So I started researching this one accident
and I thought I’d write a fairly short book,
a minute by minute retelling of this one nuclear
accident.
The more I learned, the more amazed I was
by how many other accidents there had been
and how many times the United States came
close to losing our own cities as a result
of accidents with our own nuclear weapons.
So that led me to interview bomber crew members,
missile crew members, nuclear weapon designers,
nuclear weapon repairmen and to do a lot of
searches through the Freedom of Information
Act for top secret documents about these nuclear
accidents and about safety problems with our
weapons.
And I got thousands of pages of documents
through the Freedom of Information Act and
I was sort of amazed by what some of them
said.
One of the reasons that I’d never heard
about and most people had never heard about
this extraordinary accident in Damascus, Arkansas,
is there was incredible secrecy about our
nuclear weapons program and there was every
effort made to cover up accidents and near
disasters.
In the case of the Damascus accident the Air
Force and the Pentagon claimed there was no
possibility that this warhead could have detonated
if the missile exploded.
And I found that was just pure and simply
a lie.
There had been a top secret study done just
a few years before the accident in Damascus
that had pointed out that this specific warhead
had safety problems and was liable to detonate
during an accident.
So there was this effort to keep away from
the American people the truth about the dangers
and the risks of our nuclear arsenal because
there was a concern that if the American people
really understood some of the risks they wouldn’t
support our nuclear weapons policies.
If you look at the official Pentagon list
of how many serious nuclear weapons accidents
we’ve had, the Pentagon refers to them as
broken arrows.
That list includes I think 33 serious accidents.
And when you look carefully at the list in
some of those broken arrows there was no possibility
of the weapon fully detonating because it
wasn’t fully assembled.
And yet I got a document through the Freedom
of Information Act that listed more than a
thousand nuclear weapons accidents just from
1950 to 1968 and many of those were far more
serious and far more dangerous than some of
the ones on the Pentagon’s official list.
So we don’t really know – and I don’t
know that we’ll ever know the actual number
of nuclear weapons accidents.
But I feel confident in saying it’s a lot
larger number than 33 and that we were very,
very lucky to make it out of the Cold War
without one of our weapons detonating either
in the United States or in Europe and destroying
a major city or destroying much of an entire
state.
All manmade things are fallible and they’re
going to be fallible because we’re fallible.
It’s impossible for human beings to create
anything that’s perfect and that will never
go wrong.
So the question is how much risk are you willing
to accept.
And those decisions weren’t made by the
American people debating well how much risk
are we willing to accept.
They were made by Pentagon policy makers acting
largely in secret, a small number of people.
Eventually they came to the conclusion that
the risk of an accidental detonation from
a nuclear weapon during an accident should
be one in a million.
And that’s what they decided was an acceptable
risk.
Now one in a million sounds like a very unlikely
occurrence but one in a million things happen
all the time.
People who buy lottery tickets and win the
lottery are defying odds much greater than
one in a million.
And one of the problems with probability with
all these odds – and this is just inherent
in what probability is – is that if the
odds of something happening are greater than
zero it means it’s going to happen.
It’s going to happen at some point.
It could be in a million years or it could
be next Thursday afternoon at 4 p.m.
So all of these technologies, complex technological
systems that we create have risks and when
you talk about nuclear weapons you’re talking
about the most dangerous technology, the most
dangerous machines we’ve ever invented.
And one of the aims of my book is to shed
light on this technology and involve the public
in this discussion and in these issues because
the consequences of a nuclear detonation would
just be unimaginably high, incredibly, worse
than any natural disaster the United States
has ever experienced.
So I think time for this sort of strict secrecy
is now long past over and we need to know
and we need to be involved in the decision
making about these most deadly machines.
When nuclear weapons were first being invented
this was such a new technology and such a
new science they really had no idea what some
of the safety implications would be.
And one of the themes of my book is that this
technology has always from the very beginning
been on the verge of slipping out of control.
When they were about to test the first nuclear
device in July of 1945 in the desert of New
Mexico, they weren’t sure what would happen
when it detonated.
And a lot of the Manhattan Project scientists
were worried that when the detonated this
first nuclear device it would set the atmosphere
on fire and all living things on Earth would
be killed.
Now they did calculations for about a year
to determine if the detonation of a nuclear
device would set the atmosphere on fire and
they felt fairly confident it wouldn’t.
The physicist Enrico Fermi put the odds at
about one in ten.
And no one was sure if he was kidding or not.
But up until the detonation of that first
device no one could be positive.
And one of the physicists who did the calculations
on whether the atmosphere would catch on fire
was standing ten miles away from the detonation
when it occurred at five thirty in the morning.
His name was Victor Weisskopf.
And he saw this enormous fireball from a distance
of ten miles and he felt the heat getting
hotter and hotter on his face.
And in that moment he was convinced the atmosphere
had caught on fire and that all life on Earth
was about to be extinguished.
Now he was wrong thankfully but that sense
of not quite being sure about this technology
has never gone away.
And in the year 2014 there are still all kinds
of uncertainties about our ability to control
this technology and to be able to prevent
catastrophic mistakes and accidents if something
goes wrong.
