NICK SCHIFRIN: North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un,
has announced he will no longer abide by a
moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile
tests, and he warned North Koreans of a -- quote
-- "long confrontation" with the U.S.
Meanwhile, direct talks with the Trump administration
are stalled.
For more on all of this, we turn to Naoko
Aoki, an adjunct political scientist from
the RAND Corporation and a former journalist
who has been to North Korea 18 times.
Thank you very much. Welcome to the "NewsHour."
NAOKO AOKI, RAND Corporation: Thank you.
NICK SCHIFRIN: What are your main takeaways
from Kim's statement?
NAOKO AOKI: So, I think this is a major policy
shift, from -- to an emphasis on weapons development,
strategic weapons development, and also an
emphasis on self-reliance, in terms of the
economy.
And this is because North Korea sees a prolonged
confrontation with the United States, and
it thinks that it's unlikely that sanctions
will be lifted soon.
NICK SCHIFRIN: So, let's take each of those
in turn.
The first one you talked about, strategic
weapon. That's the word that Kim used.
Let's take a listen to a newscaster reading
what Kim had to say about that.
WOMAN (through translator): He confirmed that
the world will witness a new strategic weapon
to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future.
He said that we will reliably put on constant
alert the powerful nuclear deterrent capable
of containing the nuclear threats from the
U.S. and guaranteeing our long-term security,
noting that the scope and depth of bolstering
our deterrent will be properly coordinated,
depending on the U.S. future attitude to the
DPRK.
NICK SCHIFRIN: So, there'S two points there.
One, what is a new strategic weapon, but also
that end phrase, depending on the U.S. attitude.
How important are those things?
NAOKO AOKI: Yes.
So, we don't know exactly what this new weapon
is going to be. But it is likely to be something
qualitatively new, some component of it, at
least, but we don't know what that is going
to be.
It could be something that would enhance the
survivability of North Korea's nuclear weapons.
And it's -- the conditional part is also important
as well. If you read the report carefully,
it's -- a lot of the things are conditional
on what the United States would do.
So there's a little bit of flexibility in
what the North Koreans may do.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Flexibility, an opening, so
that these talks maybe aren't dead?
NAOKO AOKI: Yes.
So, they didn't completely shut the door to
diplomacy. And I think that is important,
although things do not look very optimistic
right now.
NICK SCHIFRIN: At the top, you laid out the
two takeaways, the one strategic weapon, but,
two, also the message of resilience, the message
of a long confrontation with the United States.
And we have got some language from Kim himself
that I can read.
And let's -- let's just read that right now.
He said: "The present situation warning of
long confrontation with the U.S. urgently
requires us to make it a fait accompli that
we have to live under the sanctions by the
hostile forces in the future too, and strengthen
the internal power from all aspects."
So, cutting through the chase of that, you
have got two messages, one, the long confrontation,
and we have to be resilient, as you said,
right?
NAOKO AOKI: Yes, that's correct.
And so Kim Jong-un is preparing the public
for a prolonged confrontation with the United
States, which may involve, which is likely
to involve some form of sanctions for the
foreseeable future, and so lowering expectations
for the lifting of sanctions and preparing
the public for economic hardships ahead.
NICK SCHIFRIN: And what's the -- what's the
implication of that? Has he said that before?
And how will North Koreans receive that?
NAOKO AOKI: Well, it's a policy shift because,
in April 2018, he said that his policy of
pursuing both economic -- economic development
and nuclear arms development at the same time
has been accomplished, and he's going to shift
more emphasis on the economy.
Well, this is sort of going back to that point
where, well, the United States -- from the
North Korean point of view, the United States
is continuing with its anti-North Korea -- its
hostile policy toward North Korea, and, therefore,
we have to strengthen both.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Strengthen both, both the economy
and the nuclear weapons or the nuclear system.
NAOKO AOKI: The nuclear -- yes.
NICK SCHIFRIN: And hence the strategic, which
leads to the takeaway.
I mean, so if he's talking about a long confrontation,
if he's talking about new weapons, and the
U.S. is not budging, as far as we know, are
we going to go toward more confrontation and
more back to where we were in 2017, fire and
fury?
NAOKO AOKI: Well, that's certainly a possibility.
And tensions are likely to rise, but we don't
quite know yet by how much. And that will
depend on -- a lot on what both sides do.
NICK SCHIFRIN: So, meaning the United States
doesn't necessarily have to go down the path
of more confrontation, and nor will North
Korea go down that path itself?
NAOKO AOKI: That's the optimistic view, of
course.
(LAUGHTER)
NAOKO AOKI: And -- but we could certainly
see a return of what we saw in 2017.
But it could -- given the political U.S. presidential
elections, the political calendar and everything
else, it could mean that it could be somewhere
below that.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Meaning the United States and
the Trump administration right now, as you
see it, has no interest in ratcheting up tensions?
NAOKO AOKI: And, also, the -- North Korea
would may not want to antagonize China, for
example, by conducting ICBM tests, intercontinental
ballistic missile tests, or nuclear tests.
So that is also a factor that could play in
their calculation.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Naoko Aoki of RAND Corporation,
thank you very much.
NAOKO AOKI: Thank you.
