NARRATOR: The answer to poverty
did not come from an Ivy League
college or a Washington
think tank.
It came from Bangladesh.
In 1976 Muhammad Yunus, a
young economics professor,
encountered a group of women
who appeared to be running
profitable cottage industries.
Yet, they and their
children were starving.
Village loan sharks charged
them so much interest that
the women could barely
scratch out a living.
Dr. Yunus leant the women
small amounts of money
out of his own pocket.
The women flourished, and
Grameen Bank was born.
Grameen Bank has grown
into a powerful force
for social change.
It has leant more than $4
billion, and now serves
more than three million
borrowers; 95% are women.
A 1998 World Bank study found
that Grameen families were
emerging from poverty at the
rate of 10,000 per month.
Other research indicates that
almost half of Grameen bank
members have escaped poverty.
For perhaps the first time in
history, an effective
anti-poverty strategy exists
that can create an impact that
lasts well beyond the
original investment.
CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Hi,
I'm Chrystia Freeland.
I'm the U.S. managing editor
of the Financial Times.
And I will be moderating
this pre-lunch session.
Sorry that we're starting
a little bit late.
That may cut down on
our Q&As before lunch.
And thank you for
your patience.
I did say to the Google people
that the slot just before
lunch on a Monday is
rather unforgiving.
But we do have a very eclectic
international group of really
inspiring renaissance people
to talk about this subject.
Which I think in many ways is
the most interesting one,
and probably wrongly named.
Because it's not really the
other half of the world, it's
most of the world that I hope
we'll be talking about for
the next hour and a half.
Just a few notes on how
we're going to do it.
We will have the full
gamut of speaking forms.
We're going to have one 20
minute talk, then a
conversation between me and our
next presenter, and then two 20
minute conversations with me
and two people each.
I hope at the end of that we'll
have time for a few questions
and answers from the audience.
Our first speaker is an
intimidating renaissance man,
Professor Hans Rosling.
He began as a doctor in
Mozambique, actually
discovered a disease.
He's the founder of Sweden's
Medecins Sans Frontieres.
So I guess that means in Europe
nowadays that you become
foreign minister eventually
of your country.
And we'll be looking
forward to that.
And he also is, with his son
and daughter-in-law, founder
of a very creative internet
application designed to
make dry statistics
absolutely fascinating.
He's going to talk about
that now, and other things.
And if he doesn't tell you
enough about Gapminder, I urge
you to read the Financial Times
because my colleague, Simon
Bristow, is interviewing
him this morning.
So you'll get the
full story there.
Professor Rosling, please.
[APPLAUSE]
PROFESSOR HANS ROSLING: When I
talk with my students about
their world, they tell me
they cannot live like us.
This is the single most common
expression about the world that
I hear from the undergraduate
students in Sweden.
And I got very interested
about how do they think.
How do they think?
I decided to put
them at a test.
I asked them a number of
questions about the world
when they came to my
course in global health.
And this question lead to a
major scientific discovery.
I asked them which is the
child mortality highs?
In which of these two
countries in each pair?
And it happens to be that
Turkey has twice the child
mortality of Sri Lanka, Poland
twice of South Korea, Russia
higher than Malaysia,
Pakistan higher there, South
Africa higher there.
And these are the results of
the Swedish students, 1.8
correct answers out of five
possible, a wonderful
result for a professor.
It's like a market
survey for you.
Is ignorance out there?
I can teach, you know.
But the main discovery
came that evening when
I wrote the report.
I suddenly realized that I had
proven, with the confidence
interval of plus, minus 0.4,
that top students is Sweden
with the highest grade you can
get in the college system know
statistically significantly
less about the world
than the chimpanzee.
[LAUGHTER]
Because a chimp given two
bananas, one South Africa
one Thailand, and
they would choose.
They would pick 50%
correct answer.
Why do my students know
less than random?
Why would they score better
hadn't they seen the question?
It means that when I teach
about stem cells, I
have the white sheet of
paper in front of me.
When I teach about the world,
the head is filled with
preconceived ideas.
It's much tougher to come
with facts about the world,
because we already think
we know about the world.
I ask the students how do
you think about the world.
Well it's we and in
them, they said.
What do you mean
with we and them?
Well it's western world and
third world, they said.
We learned it in school.
But what is the criteria
of the western world?
And then the started to
think what criteria was.
Well we learned that it's long
life and small families.
And third world is short
life and large family
And I'm happy because these
are sharp criterion.
So we develop the Trendalyzer
software where we could
display the world.
You can see I put
fertility rate here.
The size of family from one
child to eight children, the
length of life here, 30
years up to 80 years.
And where is it human
beings want to leave?
Where would you like to live?
I had to have a ladder
to be able to show you.
Human beings obviously
want to live up here.
Don't you?
That's where you want to
live, two children, three
children 80 years old.
We want to replace the funerals
of the young with the
funerals of the old.
This is what.
And that's very few countries
that live up there.
Look there.
It's problematic because these
are the western countries.
Ever bubble is a country.
The color here, there's
are the Americas.
This is Africa, all Africa.
Can you see that, large
families, short lives.
but I I'm compass all the
bring green there large
family a short life.
Europe, almost all Europe up
there, with the exception
of Turkey down there.
And this is Asia.
And the ones up here in Pacific
is of course Australia,
New Zealand, and Japan.
So the students are right.
The world consists of one group
of countries down here which
has third world large families
and short life, and western
world small families.
This is 1950 when I
was two years old.
So the students know something
which was long ago.
So what has happened
with the world?
What is the world today?
If I would show you the
world, how has that changed?
What out, here we go.
You can see now, 1952, '53,
health is getting back here.
China's improving health there.
Latin American countries here.
They decreased the family
sizes going this way.
You can see Bangladesh
is down here.
This in India.
China is very successful
with family planning.
Latin America moves.
Now the Arabic countries
start with family planning.
The African countries
is moving on.
But the HIV epidemic is coming.
It's taking down the
life expectancy.
It's falling.
South Africa is
falling down there.
The rest of the
world is moving up.
And when we come into the modem
time, we have a completely new
world, more or less like this.
This is the prognosis
some few years forward.
But the lost actually
[? meshed ?]
the date like this.
Did you have this world view?
Did you know that the average
in all countries is two to
three children per woman?
That the length of life
is 65 to 75 years old?
There is no limitation between
the third world and the
western world any longer.
Mesh it as this.
The students I asked,
bloody wrong.
And I can show you the
enormous development of
some countries here.
Let me peak here Bangladesh.
It was in the first movie here.
And I look here at
United States, 1958.
And then I moved forward.
Here we go.
Wow, family planning.
Not only credit, also
government investment
in family planning, in
primary healthcare, aid.
A lot of things means that
Bangladesh today is almost
like United States 1965.
And these are solely date.
The family size we know
very well, it's easy.
You make a survey, you knock
the door, door open, the kids
come out, you count them,
one, two, three, four, five.
It's very easy.
This is more difficult.
An income is more difficult.
But I had to show you
also the distribution
of income of the world.
How does that look?
It looks like this.
This is the best available
data, dollar per day in
purchasing power adding
together the household surveys,
90% below the poverty line.
And there's no gap between
the rich and the poor.
There is a hump.
You can see the hump there.
So you can see that there's
some sort of western countries,
developing countries, but
they are merging together.
And where are the
different continents?
That's Africa south of Sahara.
These all the OECD countries,
the country club of
the United Nations.
This is Latin America,
every income in the world.
This is East Europe,
former Soviet Empire.
This is East and
Southeast Asia.
And this is South Asia,
with India mainly.
And if we go back in time, the
time when I was a student, I
studied public health
in Bangalore in 1972.
And I was amazed about the
rural poverty I could see just
outside Bangalore in 1972.
And now we shall see
what has happened.
Population has grown.
And hundreds of millions in
Asia get out of the poverty.
And East Europe slips
back into poverty.
And the best prospects,
prognosis we have, is
that this will happen.
Now these people are not so
happy yet because they are
just one step out of poverty.
I came back to Bangalore, went
out to the same health center.
Reality completely transformed.
Two to three child families,
a booming economy which was
making an impact in
the rural areas.
But people still didn't
have health insurance.
They still didn't have
access to health service.
They still had a very,
very tough life.
But they were away from famine.
And they were on their way
into the modern world.
Now I can show you
this in another way.
Let me be very, very concrete.
Let me show you dollar street.
This is the street where
everyone lives on.
The number of your houses, how
many dollars you earn per day.
This is number one here.
I move up the street like this,
and you can see how houses
get better and better.
There are houses all the way.
We live in the
continuous world.
And let us visit them.
Let us visit the $1 house here.
Let us visit the dollar--
this one has how much?
I have to look up, $2 to
$5, tiles instead of mud,
and move it up here.
This is the first garden.
How much do you have to
earn to have a garden?
Five to $10 a day.
You have a garden.
There we are.
And the first
swimming pool here.
We have the first
swimming pool.
And if we put it down to here
and here, I think we can
squeeze in them to show you
the continue of the world.
And I want to show you the bed.
This is a mat on the floor.
These people that live on
the mat on the floor.
Here you have a bed, no
sheet, but a blanket.
Here it's even a cover.
It's a very nice bedroom.
I can show you the toilet.
I used to lecture for
the [UNINTELLIGIBLE].
They always shout, we
want to see the sofa.
Show us the sofa.
And even the poor family.
I worked a lot with people in
poverty, and I've never found
so much dignity, human dignity,
making the best possible
about your life situation.
Sunset we share, everyone,
and a little bench
outside the house.
Here it looks as if they're
quite well already.
But look it's the father
which is sitting there.
The whole family
is on the floor.
These are for visitors.
Here you'll find a
more modern life.
And here you'll find
a very nice sofa.
So how can we make
sense of this world?
How can we make
sense of the world?
One way of doing it is
looking like this.
Here I put money here,
gross domestic product.
Now it's national accounts,
national accounts.
And here, child survival.
How many percent of
children that survived?
And $500 $5,000 $50,000.
And this is Africa, South Asia,
East Asia, Arab state, East
Europe, Latin America.
And up the arrow with city,
it looks as if there
is a gap in the world.
But when I split Africa into
it's countries, you can see
that sub-Saharan Africa is
quite diverse, even on
average between countries.
Sierra Leone in crisis.
Mauritius got free trade.
They could sell their products
on the same situation as
the European farmers.
And in the middle here
you'll find Ghana.
If I split South Asia because
the big bubble is India,
Afghanistan goes down,
and Sri Lanka up there.
Grandmother can
read on Sri Lanka.
Public investments in
education was very early.
Arab states, they should
be the same, same
religion, same climate.
Don't think that you know Arab
states if you've been in one.
Yemen to Dubai is a one
hour flight, and it's
two ends of the world.
And East Asia is the same.
China is the big
bubble in the middle.
And down there goes Cambodia.
And up there Singapore.
That overruns.
We used to be so happy in
Sweden because we had the
healthiest kids in the world.
Then we used the braggers
around in the world.
But Singapore overtook
us three years ago.
And now they have the
healthiest children
in the world.
And here we have East Europe
and such a difference has
emerged from the Soviet Empire.
Tajikistan and Slovenia is
furious that they can't
remember although
[UNINTELLIGIBLE]
fast enough.
And Latin America, well the
difference there is mainly
within countries, not so
much between countries.
And very soon Chile would
overtake Cuba in health
of the children.
Chile is doing very
well socially also.
And they're are the
OECD countries.
And if you split OECD, it's
not so big difference.
But really, the whole
world is like this.
It's a continuous
variation in the world.
And I could also show
the split of the world.
Because it's very dangerous
to just show the average.
Look when I split South Africa.
The richest 20% of South Africa
there, the poorest are there.
And I split Uganda, the
richest are up there,
the poorest are there.
And Niger, West Africa,
great producers of cotton.
And they wonder why
should the U.S.
subsidize cotton farmers
with $4 billion to $5
billion U.S. a year.
If you just take away that.
You get those $4 billion to
$5 billion to hand over
to Ann Veneman at UNICEF.
And the West African
farmers can do on there.
Because it's not enough with
microcredits if you have been
deprived of your market
by unjust subsidies.
This is a very serious issue.
But look, you have the
whole Africa-- the whole
world, within three
countries in Africa.
The world is quite
complex like this.
And if you would see how it has
moved, it has moved like this.
We can see there
was China 1960.
And this is how they moved.
China got healthier with Mao
Tse-tung but not richer.
There he died, Mao Tse-tung,
Hsiao-peng made them rich,
but not so much healthier.
And they mainstreamed it.
And we go up this patent of the
world which we know it today,
which is a continue where
most of the countries
are in the middle.
This is a picture
of the same way.
I want to show it because
I you to show my family.
This is my great-great-grandma.
She was born 1830 when
Sweden was down here.
That's a position
in Sweden 1830.
And then Sweden progressed,
but not so fast.
And their great grandmother
was born when Sweden
was like Mozambique.
My grandma who took care of me
when I was a child was born
when Sweden was like Ghana.
Invest in Ghana.
They are a take-off.
Mother was born when
Sweden was like Egypt.
And I, I'm the Mexican
in the family.
And my daughter was born
when Sweden was like Chile.
And I had my first
granddaughter born when
Sweden was like Singapore.
But it's not we and them
We don't divide our
relatives in we and them.
We feel very strong
connections, and we see how
every generation has worked
hard and tried to improve
the situation for the next
generation to come.
I want to show that I'm
a studious professor.
So that's why I have these
bullet points powerpointed.
[APPLAUSE]
Development dimension.
Very often we want to measure
development in one dimension.
This is very wrong if we
read [?___Amartia___F
eny___Wenewa.___?]
Economic growth, governance
in education, health, human
rights, environment, are a very
important dimension of it.
Now, who are the drivers?
I would say that economic
growth I give three plus/ two
plus for governance and just
one for these good nice things.
Whereas these are not the
same thing as the goals.
I don't think economic
growth is a goal.
It may be the strongest mean
we have for development.
But is not a goal in itself
except for one little
subtype of persons which
are quite strange.
But the majority of
people money is a
mean, it's not an aim.
Governance in education, well
school isn't that fun, and
voting isn't that fun.
What's fun is health, human
rights, environments, culture,
doing what you want.
That the aim.
And this is how we have to see.
We have to see at the complex
world and see several
things at the same thing.
The poor people when they
live in poverty, under one
dollar, the just want deals.
They want their crop to grow.
They listen to the agronomists.
What should I plant?
Out of poverty they get
through technology.
The African farmers I spent 20
years in research in rural
Africa, the women said give us
a mill, we'll pay for the rest.
And they really need
the credit for that.
And then they need a market.
Otherwise they never
get away from poverty.
But market, she says,
I need school.
Otherwise I will be cheated.
I need a healthy kid,
otherwise I can't go.
I need infrastructure by the
government so I can go easy.
I need that microcredit
for my bicycle.
I need the information.
I need the room in right
to do what I want.
And I love free trade.
I hate agriculture
subsidies overseas.
So why can't we have a
fact-based world view?
If we make a technology,
we can websites with
search and interaction.
The statistics can be free.
The analysts can say aha.
We can make webcast stores
like this, like we show
the weather in TV.
We can reach the public and
even hit the TV so fast
as we say in Sweden.
This is what we want to happen.
The problem is World Bank
is still selling the
public statistic.
It's a very strange business.
That bank needs to revise
several things I would
say, several things.
I did a survey.
I went to Wall Street.
I'm coming up the tube station.
I have my American
Express card ready.
I think I have to pay
to walk the sidewalks.
But it's free.
The sidewalks are free.
Isn't it fantastic?
Some things shouldn't
be tax financed.
And I think it's time
that statistics become
intellectual sidewalks.
That we fact-based to
a much larger extent.
And we can achieve this.
Free data, Paul Cheung who is
the head of UN Statistics will
open UN statistic
databases free.
And it wasn't difficult
to convince Larry Page
and Sarah [? Gabrin ?]
that Google would be a great
company to invest in this.
And very happily we sold
our software to Google
two months ago.
And now we really think
that a change would come.
That will be technology free
for the world for statistics.
The public statistic is no
intellectual property problem.
It's already owned
by the public.
It's not like the books and the
journals and all these things.
This statistic is $20 billion
a year paid by the public.
It should be out there
understandable, free
and searchable.
And we think it will
happen very soon.
Thank you very much.
[APPLAUSE]
CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Well
thank you very much,
Professor Rosling.
You've set a wonderful baseline
for our subsequent discussions.
And I must say, if he would be
my professor, I would be much
better at statistics
then I am today.
Professor Rosling is also
a very active blogger.
So if you want to continue the
discussion with him after this
session, I urge you to ask him
and converse with him that Way.
