>> GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO
"HERE & NOW'S" SPECIAL COVERAGE
OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND LABRADOR.
I'M CAROLYN STOKES AND WE'RE
STARTING EARLY TODAY AND WE'LL
STAY ON THE AIR UNTIL 7:00
NEWFOUNDLAND TIME.
THAT'S BECAUSE IN ABOUT HALF AN
HOUR, THE PROVINCE IS GOING TO
RELEASE ITS COVID-19 PROJECTIONS
FOR THIS PROVINCE.
HOW BAD THINGS COULD GET HERE
AND WHEN WE MIGHT COME OUT OF
THIS.
PETER COWAN HAS BEFORE AT EVERY
MEDICAL BRIEFING SINCE THIS
PANDEMIC START SOD WE'RE GOING
TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS LIVE AND
SEE IF WE CAN FIND OUT THE
ANSWERS.
YOU CAN ALSO WATCH US LIVE ON
Facebook OR E-MAIL YOUR
QUESTIONS TO THE WEBSITE.
IT'S INCREDIBLE TO SEE HOW MUCH
IS JUST THE PAST MONTHS AND THAT
TIME LAST MONTH WE HAVEN'T BEEN
SEEN OUR FIRST CASE OF
CORONAVIRUS IN THIS PROVINCE.
TODAY THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IS
232 AND THE VIRUS HAS KILLED TWO
PEOPLE IN THIS PROVINCE.
SO LET'S START BY TURNING BACK
THE CLOCK.
THE NEW YEAR BEGAN WITH AN EPIC
SNOW STORM, ONE THAT GAVE MUCH
OF THE POPULATION A TASTE OF
INDOOR LIVING DURING ITS STATE
OF EMERGENCY.
THAT RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALL ON
JANUARY 17TH, WAS NICKNAMED
SNOWMAGEDDEN.
ON THAT DAY COVID-19 MAKES MARK.
THE VIRUS IS SPREADING AND IT
HITS OUR DOORSTEP, CANADA SEES
ITS FIRST CASE IN TORONTO.
IN THIS PROVINCE, A NOW FAMILIAR
FACE DELIVERS REASSURING WORDS.
>> TELL US HOW WORRIED SHOULD
PEOPLE BE?
>> WELL, THE OVER ALL RISK FOR
CANADA AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR IS LOW FROM A
PUBLIC-HEALTH POINT OF VIEW.
WE WILL SOME CASES HERE IN
CANADA BUT OVER ALL, THE RISK IS
LOW.
>> Carolyn: BY JANUARY 30th,
THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
DECLARES A GLOBAL HEALTH
EMERGENCY AND THIS PROVINCE
BEGINS TO BRACE FOR THE
INEVITABLE.
>> I THINK IT'S ALMOST CERTAIN
WE WILL SEE CASES.
>> WE HAVE DETAILED PLANS WORKED
OUT WITH CANADIAN BORDER
SERVICES AND TO SCREEN ANYBODY
WHO HAS IDENTIFIED OR
SYMPTOMATIC, 114 COUNTRIES ARE
EFFECTED AND THE W.H.O. DECLARES
A PANDEMIC.
>> WE HAVE NO CASES HERE WE
ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE CASES
HERE PEOPLE ARE BEING TESTED
TOLD TO STAY INDOORS.
>> INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES AND
COVID-19 AND ARE REQUIRED TO
SELF-ISOLATE AND THEY'RE NOT
PERMITTED TO ATTEND WORKER
SCHOOL.
>> ON MARCH 14TH COMES
CONFIRMATION THE VIRUS HAS
LANDED ON OUR SHORES.
THE FIRST POSITIVE CASE IS
ANNOUNCED IN THE LABRADOR
GRENFELL AREA.
THE PERSON RETURNED FROM AWE
CROWS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
RESTRICTIONS BEGAN TA RAMP UP.
>> EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, WE'RE
SUSPENDING ALL IN-SCHOOL CLASS
INSTRUCTION THROUGHOUT PROVINCE
AND EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION,
AND DAYCARE CENTERS AND ALSO THE
COLLEGE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
>> Reporter: THE WORDS SOCIAL
DISTANCING BECOME COMMONPLACE
AND PEOPLE WITH UNDER LYING
HEALTH CONCERNS ARE TOLD TO BE
CAREFUL.
>> ANYONE WHO IS AT INCREASED
RISK FOR SEVERE DISEASE, WE
RECOMMEND THEY THREE TO SOCIAL
DISTANCE THEMSELVES MUCH AS
POSSIBLE.
STAY HOME AND AVOID LARGE CROWDS
AND BUSY TIMES OF THE
SUPERMARKET.
>> AS OF TODAY, TUESDAY
MARCH 17th, THERE ARE THREE
PRESUMPTIVE POSITIVE CASES OF
COVID-19 IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR.
>> Reporter: NEXT COMES A
MILESTONE.
A PUBLIC-HEALTH EMERGENCY IS
DECLARED IN THE PROVINCE.
BUSINESSES LIKE GYMS, BARS AND
MOVIE THEATERS ARE ORDERED
CLOSED, GATHERINGS OF 50 PEOPLE
ARE BANNED.
ANYONE RETURNING HOME FROM
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL IS ORDERED
TO SELF-ISOLATE FOR 14 DAYS.
>> AT LAST EVENING, WE LEARNED
OF OUR FOURTH CASE OF COVID-19
IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
>> WE ARE IN UNCHARTED WATERS
HERE.
>> Reporter: RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN, EACH NEW
DAY BRINGS NEW RULES.
>> TODAY, ANY INDIVIDUAL
RETURNING FROM OUT OF THE
PROVINCE WILL BE ABSOLUTELY
REQUIRED TO QUARANTINE FOR 14
DAYS.
WE MUST ACT NOW.
IF THIS SITUATION WASN'T
SERIOUS, WE WOULD NOT BE DOING
THIS.
>> Reporter: THEN WE START TO
SEE DRIVE-THRU TESTING
LOCATIONS, TRAFFIC ON THE
STREETS PARKING LOTS IS THINNING
OUT.
THE CASELOAD SOARS FROM NINE TO
24.
CAUL'S FUNERAL DISCLOSES PEOPLE
WHO ATTENDED VISITATIONS MAY
HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO AN INFECTED
PERSON.
WARNINGS WELCOME MORE SEVERE.
>> THE ONLY SAFE ASSUMPTION IS
YOUR NEXT DOOR NEIGHBOUR HAS
THIS VIRUS.
>> Reporter: MORE NON ESSENTIAL
BUSINESSES ARE ORDERED TO CLOSE.
VISITS TO LONG-TERM CARE HOMES
ARE NO LONGER ALLOWED UNLESS A
LOVED ONE IS DYING.
FUNERALS AND WEDDINGS ARE
LIMITED TO 10 PEOPLE.
CANADA POST IN ST. JOHN'S SHUTS
DOWN AFTER FIVE EMPLOYEES TEST
POSITIVE.
THE LIBERAL PARTY SPENDS ITS
LEADERSHIP RACE, A CONCERN ABOUT
THE MENTAL HEALTH OF PEOPLE IN
ISOLATION BECOMES PART OF THE
CONVERSATION.
>> WE'VE TALKED ABOUT SOCIAL
DISTANCING.
REALLY, I THINK IT MAY BE A BIT
OF AN INAPPROPRIATE WORD.
WE'VE TALKED ABOUT PHYSICAL
DISTANCING.
WE REALLY NEED PEOPLE TO REMAIN
SOCIALLY CONNECTED.
>> Reporter: THEN COMES
FRUSTRATION AS NEWS CIRCULATES
THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE BREAKING
THE RULES.
>> IT'S STILL BAFFLING ME WE'RE
HEARING STORIES OF PEOPLE
GETTING OFF PLANES AND NOT GOING
STRAIGHT HOME.
>> Reporter: MARCH 25th SEES
THE BIGGEST JUMP SO FAR WITH 32
NEW PRESUMPTIVE CASES IN 24
HOURS, BRINGING THE PROVINCE'S
TOTAL TO 67.
>> AT LEAST 44 ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAUL'S FUNERAL HOME.
>> SOME OF YOU ARE NOT TAKING
THIS SERIOUSLY.
ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES OR SOME
OF THE CONSEQUENCES THAT WE PUT
IN PLACE WOULD BE FINES.
IN ADDITION TO FINES, WE ARE
IMMEDIATELY TAKING AWAY YOUR
DRIVER'S LICENSE.
>> Reporter: THE REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS SETTING IN.
GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO WARN,
THIS IS NOT A SPRINT, IT'S A
MARATHON.
>> WHAT WE'RE SAYING IS, WHAT DO
WE NEED TO KEEP NOT LIFE GOING
AT A BASIC LEVEL OVER THREE
MONTHS.
THIS IS NOT THREE DAYS, IT'S NOT
TWO WEEKS, THIS IS AT LEAST
THREE MONTHS.
WE'RE ONLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK THROW.
>> Reporter: THE NUMBER OF
INFECTED JUMPS TO 120.
WE SEE COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION
FOR THE FIRST TIME.
ON MARCH 29th, THE FIRST
DEATH.
A 78-YEAR-OLD MAN IS KILLED BY
THE VIRUS.
>> SO WE ARE FACING ANOTHER
HEARTBREAKING DAY FOR OUR
PROVINCE.
>> TODAY, I AM DEEPLY SADDENED
TO REPORT THAT THERE HAS BEEN A
SECOND DEATH RELATED TO COVID-19
IN OUR PROVINCE.
>> Reporter: BUT HOW MANY MORE
DEATHS AND INFECTIONS COULD THIS
PROVINCE SEE OVER THE COURSE OF
THIS PANDEMIC?
TONIGHT, GOVERNMENT WILL GIVE US
A GLIMPSE INTO WHAT THE FUTURE
MAY HOLD.
>> POSSIBILITIES, THESE ARE
PROBABILITIES.
THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE
THROUGH A FUZZY TELESCOPE, A
FUZZY CRYSTAL BALL.
THEY ARE THINGS THAT WE NEED TO
DO BECAUSE WE NEED
ADMINISTRATORS AS CIVIL SERVANTS
TO TRY AND BE ABLE TO PLAN ON
YOUR BEHALF FOR THE WORST-CASE
SCENARIO, WHILE HOPING FOR THE
BEST.
>> Carolyn: IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES
OR SO, WE'LL GET THOSE
PROJECTIONS FROM THE PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT.
NOW, SOME OTHER PROVINCES HAVE
ALREADY RELEASED THEIR
PROJECTIONS ON HOW COVID-19
COULD AFFECT THEM.
THEY OUTLINED WORSE CASE AND
PROBABLE SCENARIOS, ALBERTA
RELEASED ITS MODELING NUMBERS
YESTERDAY FOR HOW COVID-19 COULD
HIT THAT PROVINCE.
LIKE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR,
ALBERTA IS FACING BOTH A HEALTH
CRISIS AND AN ECONOMIC CRISIS.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE
PROJECTIONS IN THAT PROVINCE.
IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO,
INFECTIONS WOULD PEAK AT THE
BEGINNING OF MAY WITH AS MANY AS
1 MILLION CASES AND BETWEEN
506,600 DEATHS.
UNDER THE PROBABLE SCENARIO,
ALBERTA COULD SEE BETWEEN #
HUNDRED AND 3,100 DEATHS BY THE
END OF SUMMER AND AS MANY AS
800,000 INFECTIONS.
THE INFECTION RATE IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN MID MAY.
>> I WANT ALBERTANS TO SEE THIS
AS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OF OUR
GENERATION.
HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE INFECTED,
HOW MANY DIED, AND WHETHER WE
OVERWHELM OUR HEALTH-CARE
SYSTEM, ALL OF THAT DEPENDS ON
US AND OUR CHOICES.
>> Carolyn: LIKE OUR PROVINCE,
ALBERTA IS BRACING FOR AN
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE BECAUSE OF OIL
PRICES.
>> NOW WESTERN CANADIAN OIL HAS
FALLEN AS LOW IN THE PAST WEEK,
AS $3 A BARREL.
THERE'S A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY
THAT AS GLOBAL INVENTORIES
OVERFLOW, OUR ENERGY WILL HIT
NEGATIVE PRICES.
WE'LL BE PAYING PEOPLE TO
TAKEAWAY OUR ENERGY.
I CANNOT OVER STATE HOW GRAVE
THE IMPLICATIONS THIS WILL BE
FOR JOBS, OUR ECONOMY, AND THE
FINANCIAL SECURITY OF ALBERTANS.
>> Carolyn: LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT
QUEBEC NOW.
HEALTH OFFICIALS WARN THAT
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE COULD I DO
IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS FROM
COVID-19.
THE PROVINCE RELEASED ITS
PROJECTIONS YESTERDAY OUTLINING
HOW THE PANDEMIC MIGHT UNFOLD.
QUEBEC HAS THE LARGEST NUMBER OF
CASES IN THE COUNTRY.
FOR QUEBEC'S WORST-CASE SCENARIO
THERE COULD BE 60,000 CASE AND
NEARLY 9,000 DEATHS BY THE END
OF THIS MONTH.
UNDER ITS OPTIMISTIC MODEL,
OFFICIALS EXPECT JUST UNDER
30,000 INFECTIONS WITH MORE THAN
1200 DEATHS BY THE END OF APRIL.
IT'S EXPECTING TO HIT THE PEAK
INFECTION RATE ON APRIL 18TH.
SO FAR, THERE HAVE BEEN 150
DEATHS IN QUEBEC FROM COVID-19.
RESIDENTS MUST KEEP UP PHYSICAL
DISTANCING AND FOLLOW ALL OF THE
RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE.
>> I WANT TO BE VERY CLEAR, THIS
DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN EASE OUR
EFFORTS.
WE CANNOT SPOIL ALL THAT WE'VE
ACCOMPLISHED TOGETHER IN THE
LAST FEW WEEKS.
>> Carolyn: SO, THOSE ARE JUST
TWO OF THE SEVERAL PROVINCES
THAT HAVE RELEASED COVID-19
PROJECTIONS AND I'M GOING TO
BRING IN PETER COWAN.
THIS IS THE DETAIL WE EXPECT TO
SEE HER IN THIS PROVINCE TONIGHT
AT 6:00 FROM THE GOVERNMENT.
>> Reporter: WORE GOING TO HEAR
FROM THE PREMIER.
I GOT A CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON TO
SPEAK WITH SOME OF THE OFFICIALS
AND WOVE BEEN GIVEN A SNEAK PEEK
ON THOSE NUMBERS.
I'M NOT ALLOWED TO SHARE THEM
UNTIL THE PREMIER STARTS
SPEAKING AT 6:00.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GOT A CHANCE
TO QUESTION OFFICIALS.
THE ONE THING THAT IS IMPORTANT
TO KNOW HERE IS THAT BECAUSE WE
ARE A SMALLER PROVINCE, WE'VE
HAD FEWER CASES THAN THOSE TWO
PROVINCES THAT WE HEARD AND THE
PREMIER OR THE HEALTH MINISTER
HAS WARNED US THAT THAT'S WHY
OUR PROJECTIONS ARE COMING A
LITTLE BIT LATER BECAUSE THE
MORE DATA YOU HAVE TO FEED NO
THE MODEL THE MORE ACCURATE IT'S
GOING TO BE.
THERE ARE DEFINITELY A BUNCH OF
ASTERISKS, THIS IS NOT, THEY'RE
GOING TO GIVE US AN IDEA OF WHAT
COULD HAPPEN BASED ON A COUPLE
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
>> Carolyn: WHAT IF THIS HAPPENS
WHAT IF THAT HAPPENS?
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOCK AT
SOME QUESTIONS FROM PEOPLE
WE'VE BEEN DOING Facebook
LIVES WHERE WE TAKE QUESTIONS
FROM PEOPLE.
SO LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT ONE HERE
THAT WAS E-MAILED TO US.
IF I TEST POSITIVE BUT SHOW NO
SYMPTOMS, HOW LONG IS IT BEFORE
THE VIRUS LEAVES MY SYSTEM?
YOU ARE NOT A DOCTOR BUT YOU'VE
BEEN PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ALL OF THE BRIEFINGS THAT HAVE
BEEN HAPPENING SINCE THIS
STARTED.
WHAT INTEL DO YOU HAVE ON THAT?
DO YOU HAVE AN ANSWER?
>> Reporter: NO, THIS IS A
BRANDS NEW VIRUS.
EVEN THE FACT THAT THERE ARE
SOME PEOPLE WHO HAVE THIS
DISEASE AND NEVER SHOW SYMPTOMS
IS A BRAND NEW STATISTICS AND
THAT'S WHY WE'VE SEEN, FOR
EXAMPLE, THE CHANGE IN THE
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THERE'S NO
POINT IN WEARING MASKS TO THERE
MIGHT BE SOME BENEFIT TO WEARING
MASKS.
RIGHT NOW THEY KNOW THERE ARE
SOME PEOPLE, THEY DON'T KNOW HOW
MANY SO THEY HAVEN'T HAD A FULL
STUDY LOOKING AT HOW LONG
SOMEONE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE
SHOWING NO SYMPTOMS BUT STILL
SPREADING THE DISEASE.
IT'S A GOOD QUESTION BUT IT'S
NOT ONE THAT EVEN THE HEALTH
OFFICIALS ARE ABLE TO ANSWER
RIGHT NOW.
>> Carolyn: WHY DO WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE SECOND LOWEST
TESTING RATE PER-CAPITA?
IS IT BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF
TEST KITS OR LAB CAPACITY IN
THIS PROVINCE?
>> Reporter: WE'VE HEARD FROM
THE HEALTH MINISTER THAT THEY
WANT TO BE JUDICIOUS WITH THE
USE OF HOW MANY OF THESE
SUPPLIES?
EVERY TEST YOU NEED A SWAB AND
YOU NEED PERSONAL PROTECTIVE
EQUIPMENT FOR THE PERSON WHO IS
SWABBING YOU.
YOU NEED CAPACITY AT THE LAB,
YOU NEED SOMETHING CALLED
REAGENTS.
THEY USE EVERY TIME THEY DO
THESE TESTINGS.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IS WE WANT
TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE ONLY
DOING TESTING WHEN THERE'S SOLID
EVIDENCE THAT THERE'S A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS PERSON HAVE
COVID-19.
RIGHT NOW, IN ORDER TO GET A
TEST, THEY'RE USING HAVE YOU
TRAVELED, BEEN IN CONTACT WITH
SOMEONE WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR
SOMEONE WITH COVID-19 OR ARE YOU
A HEALTHCARE WORKERS OR SOMEONE
WHO WORKS WITH VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS THAT HAVE SYMPTOMS
FOR COVID-19.
THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT
HEALTHCARE WORKERS IS IF SOMEONE
BRINGS THAT INTO A HEALTH CARE
SETTING, YOU HAVE YOUR MOST
VULNERABLE, THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE
BEEN HIT HARDEST IN THE COUNTRY
FROM COVID-19.
>> Carolyn: THIS WEEKEND IS
EASTER PEOPLE WANT TO HAVE
DINNER AND SOCIALIZE.
THERE'S A CONCERN THAT THE
NUMBERS OF CASES COULD PICK UP
THIS WEEKEND.
WHAT WAS THE PREMIER SAYING TO
THE PUBLIC ABOUT TRAVEL THIS
WEEKEND?
>> Reporter: FIRST THE ALL, THE
ANSWER WAS ONLY ESSENTIAL
TRAVEL.
IF THE NOT ESSENTIAL.
IF YOU DO HAVE TO DID IT RIGHT
NOW, YOU SHOULDN'T BE OUT AND
ABOUT YOU SHOULDN'T BE GOING.
OFFICIALS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THIS
WEEKEND.
ALL IT TAKES, WE SAW FROM CAUL'S
FUNERAL HOME, IT TAKES ONE
INFECTED PERSON TO GO TO A
GATHERING AND IT CAN SPREAD.
IF SOMEONE SAYS IT'S ONLY MY
FAMILY I'LL HAVE NAN AND POP
OVER, I'LL HAVE MY COUSINS OVER.
WE'RE STILL GOING TO STAY INSIDE
THE HOUSE.
THAT'S WHERE YOU SEE ONE PERSON
CAN SPREAD THE DISEASE QUICKLY.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ALSO
WONDERING THE CABIN.
SHOULD I BE GOING OUT AROUND THE
BAY TO MY SUMMER HOME AND COULD
COVID-19 TIME IS NOT COTTAGE
TIME.
AND HE WAS A LOT MORE VAGUE.
>> I KNOW PEOPLE WANT TO GO TO
CABINS BUT THERE'S TOUCH POINTS
ALONG THE WAY.
YOU FUEL UP, YOU PICK UP EXTRA
GROCERIES.
YOU DO EXTRA THINGS.
SO, FOR ME PERSONALLY I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE PEOPLE STAY HOME.
AS THEY SAY STAY IN YOUR BUBBLE
AND STAY SAFE.
STAY AWAY FROM THOSE UP TO
POINTS.
REALISING THAT FOR THOSE THAT A
SYMPTOMATIC, THERE'S ALWAYS
SOMETIMES A NEED TO DO SOME
THINGS.
THE BIG THING IN ALL OF THIS IS
BE SPONGE FOR NON ESSENTIAL
TRAVEL.
>> Carolyn: WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
THE "WHAT IFS."
WHAT IF PEOPLE DON'T WITH THE
LOCKDOWN WE'VE SEEN IN PLACE
RIGHT NOW.
>> Carolyn: LET'S GET TO ANOTHER
QUESTION.
HOW DO WE KNOW THERE ISN'T MORE
COMMUNITY SPREAD IF AVERAGE
INDIVIDUALS IN THE COMMUNITY
DON'T QUALIFY FOR A TEST EVEN
WHEN THEY'RE ILL?
>> Reporter: THAT'S AN EXCELLENT
QUESTION.
IT'S ONE THAT I'VE ACTUALLY PUT
DURING THE BRIEFINGS.
AND THE ANSWER FROM THE CHIEF
MEDICAL OFFICER OF HEALTH IS,
ONE WAY THAT THEY DO SEE
COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION IS IF YOU
GO INTO THE HOSPITAL, BECAUSE
YOU ARE SYMPTOMS ARE SO SEVERE,
THEY WILL DO A TEST.
WE SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE GO INTO
HOSPITALS WITH INFLUENZA EVERY
YEAR AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
TEST.
IF THEY TEST YOU FOR IN THE FLU,
THEY'RE TEST YOU FOR COVID-19 AS
WELL.
PEOPLE DEVELOPED MORE SEVERE
SYMPTOMS BECAUSE OF THIS AND
THEY WOULD TEST AND SEE IT THEN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS, RIGHT NOW,
THEY'VE ONLY SEEN KIND OF THREE
OR FOUR CASES WHERE SOMEONE HAS
TESTED POSITIVE WHERE THEY
HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO TRACE IT
BACK TO EITHER TRAVEL, CONTACT
WITH ANOTHER INDIVIDUAL, OR THAT
CAUL'S FUNERAL HOME CLUSTER
WHERE WE'VE SEEN 150 CASES ALL
RELATED TO THAT ONE EVENT.
>> Carolyn: THAT WILL SEW THE
PROJECTIONS WE'RE GOING TO SEE
TODAY, RIGHT?
>> Reporter: THAT'S ONE OF THE
CONCERNS WE HEARD FROM THE
HEALTH MINISTER IS OUR SCENARIO
IS VERY DIFFERENT.
THIS IS THE LARGEST CLUSTER IN
THE PROVINCE AND 75% OF OUR
CASES ARE TIED TO THAT ONE
CLUSTER SO THAT MEANS WE ONLY
HAVE THAT 25 THAT ARE REALLY
INDICATIVE OF HOW THE VIRUS
MIGHT NORMALLY SPREAD THROUGH
THE POPULATION IN NEWFOUNDLAND
AND LABRADOR.
>> Carolyn: I HAVE A GOOD
QUESTION, I THINK, THAT I'M
CURIOUS ABOUT THE ANSWER.
LORI ASKS, CAN YOU WALK SOMEONE
ELSE'S DOG IF YOU DID NOT COME
IN CONTACT WITH THEIR OWNERS?
>> Reporter: WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
IS THE DISEASE DOES NOT SPREAD
THROUGH PETS.
A LOT OF PEOPLE MY DOG IS
LICKING MY FACE.
>> Carolyn: OR THEIR FUR?
CAN IT BE ON THEIR FUR?
>> Reporter: THERE'S A CHANCE IF
SOMEONE HAD THE DISEASE AND
COUGHED ON IT AND THE DROPLETS
AND YOU MIGHT HAVE WIPED THEIR
FUR BUT SO FAR WE HAVEN'T SEEN
ANY ADVICE FROM OFFICIALS IN
TERMS OF DON'T WALK OTHER
PEOPLE'S DOGS BECAUSE IT IS A
CONCERN.
THE CONCERN IS MOSTLY AROUND
PRONOUNCED CONTACT IN CLOSE
QUARTERS.
IF YOU GET CLOSER THAN TWO
METRES TO SOMEONE FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME, I KNOW IN
ONTARIO THEY'RE USING 15 MINUTES
IS KIND OF WHEN THEY'RE
SCREENING PEOPLE.
THAT IS WHERE THE BIG CONCERN IS
RATHER THAN, BECAUSE THE OTHER
THING IS THE DOGS OUTSIDE,
THEY'RE ROLLING AROUND AND IN
THE SNOW OR GRASS AND DRINKING
OUT OF A PUDDLE AND THERE MAY BE
LOTS OF OTHER WAYS THAT THEY
BRING SOMETHING BACK BUT, SO
FAR, THAT HASN'T BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED AS A CONCERN SO
RIGHT NOW THERE'S NO ADVICE
SAYING DON'T WALK SOMEONE ELSE'S
DOG.
>> JUST HEADING BACK TO THE
EASTER WEEKEND, THE PREMIER SAID
THAT STORES ARE ALLOW TO OPEN
DURING THE HOLIDAYS.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS
THERE AND WHY DID HE CHOSE TO DO
THAT?
>> WE'VE SEEN PEOPLE SAY HOLD
ON, DON'T WORKERS NEED A REST.
THEY'VE MADE IT CLEAR THAT IS
OPTIONAL SO NO WORKER CAN BE
FORCED TO WORK ON GOOD FRIDAY.
BUT THE CONCERN IS, IF STORES
ARE CLOSED FRIDAY, AND STORES
ARE CLOSED SUNDAY, THAT REDUCES
THE AMOUNT OF SHOPPING TIME.
THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD THE
ENCOURAGEMENT IS STORES OPEN FOR
LONG PERIODS OF TIME BECAUSE IT
HELPS WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING.
PEOPLE IN COSTCO THERE ARE BIG
LINEUPS OUTSIDE THE DOOR.
LINEUPS ARE WHAT THEY'RE TRYING
TO AVOID.
HERE IS HOW THE QUESTION OF WHY
THIS MOVE WAS MADE WAS ANSWERED
BY THE PREMIER.
>> THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE
BUSIEST WEEKENDS AHEAD OF US.
A WEEKEND THAT IS TYPICALLY
FILLED WITH FOOD AND EASTER
GIFTS.
CLOSING STORES WE'RE GIVING
GROCERY STORES THE OPTION OF
CLOSING JUST ONE DAY.
THE OPTION TO OPEN IS SIMPLE.
IT'S TO PROTECT YOU, THE
CUSTOMERS, AND THE EMPLOYEES.
THIS IS PROMOTING PHYSICAL
DISTANCING.
IT'S AN OPTION FOR BUSINESSES TO
CONSIDER THEY'RE NOT REQUIRED TO
OPEN IT'S PROVIDING FLEXIBILITY.
>> Reporter: SO THAT'S THE
ADVICE ABOUT STORES ALTHOUGH
IT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE
DOMINION SAID THEY WILL NOT OPEN
ON GOOD FRIDAY, CAROLINE.
OTHERWISE IT'S UP TO INDIVIDUAL
STORES TO DECIDE IF THEY HAVE
THE STAFF, DOES THEIR STAFF NEED
A BREAK BUT THE ENCOURAGEMENT
THE MORE AMOUNT OF TIME THE
STORES ARE OPEN, THE'S YEAR IT'S
GOING TO BE.
ALSO WORTH POINTING OUT THAT
WORKERS WHO WORK THEY GET PAID
DOUBLE TIME.
THEY GET PAID EXTRA FOR WORKING
ON THAT HOLIDAY.
>> Carolyn: WITH THE PROJECTIONS
THAT ARE COMING UP IN ABOUT
EIGHT MINUTES OR SO, ONE OF THE
THINGS THEY'RE GOING TO TALK
ABOUT WILL BE HEALTHCARE
CAPACITY, ICU BEDS, THAT WHOLE
IDEA OF FLATTENING THE CURVE.
AUTHOR GREEN WANTS TO KNOW, HOW
MANY VENTILATORS DOES THE
GOVERNMENT OWN?
WHAT'S OUR CAPACITY FOR THAT?
>> RIGHT NOW, THEY HAVE 156
VENTILATORS, SPREAD OUT ACROSS
THE PROVINCE AND THEY HAVE
ORDERED 20 MORE VENTILATORS TO
UP OUR CAPACITY.
THE GOOD NEWS ON A PER-CAPITA
BASIS AND ONE OF THE BIGGER
ISSUES IT'S NOT AND WE'LL NEED
SOMEONE AND EXTRA HELP IS HE SO
YOU NEED THE VENTILATORS, ICU
BEDS AND STAFF AND THERE'S A LOT
OF PEACE AND YOU NEED THE
PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT
FOR THOSE STAFF IN ORDER FOR THE
SYSTEM TO HANDLE THIS SURGE.
THERE'S A LOT OF PIECES THAT
NEED TO BE IN PLACE.
>> Carolyn: FRED DOUGLAS SAID IS
THERE AN AGE BREAKDOWN OF THOSE
WHO HAVE RECOVERED?
>> THEY'VE GIVEN A BREAKDOWN IN
TERMS OF THE AGES OF THE PEOPLE
THAT CAUGHT THE DISEASE AND
TONIGHT I THINK WE MAY GET A
SENSE OF AN AGE, THAT THEY'RE
GOING TO LOOK AT SOME OF THE
AGES IN THE PROJECTIONS AS WELL
AND WE DO KNOW WHO IN FACT,
THERE'S IT'S WORTH POINTING OUT
WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE TOTAL
NUMBERS, THAT INCLUDES EVERYONE
WHO IS DIAGNOSED.
THEY DON'T SUBTRACT THE NUMBER
OF RECOVERED PEOPLE ON A DAILY
BASIS, THAT NUMBER OF CASES
WILL, THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO
FLAT SCIENCE AND YET AND THAT
NUMBER WON'T GO DOWN.
>> IT INCLUDES THE 79 PEOPLE WHO
HAVE RECOVERED.
>> Reporter: YOU WOULD HAVE TO
DO MATH AND SUBTRACT THE PEOPLE
WHO RECOVERED AND THE DEATHS
WE'VE SEEN IN THE PROVINCE.
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW MANY
PEOPLE HAVE THE DISEASE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
>> Carolyn: AMY CANNING WANTS TO
KNOW SHOULD PEOPLE GIVE AND
RECEIVE TREATS?
LIKE HOMEMADE FOOD AND GOODIES?
SHE SAYS SHE'S SEEN THIS ON
SOCIAL MEDIA A LOT AND A LOT OF
PEOPLE DOING THIS AND GIVING
PEOPLE HOMEMADE FOOD IN THE
STREETS AND STUFF.
>> WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT
ADDRESSED DIRECTLY BY HEALTH
OFFICIALS AND WHEN THEY TALKED
ABOUT GROCERIES, THEY HAVE SAID
WE KNOW THINGS LIKE CARDBOARD
AND CLOTHE DON'T CARRY THE VIRUS
VERY WELL.
IT DOESN'T SURVIVE VERY LONG ON
THERE.
THE ONE THING IS WASH YOUR
HANDS.
EVERY TIME YOU ARE HANDLING SOME
SOMETHING.
YOU HOPE IT MIGHT BE WRAPPED
WHEN IT COMES IN AND YOU WANT TO
WASH YOUR HANDS AFTER YOU
HANDLED IT JUST IN CASE THERE IS
ANYTHING, FOR EXAMPLE, ON THE
OUTSIDE OF THE PACKAGE.
SO, THE ADVICE, WASH YOUR HANDS
AND IT MAY BE SIMPLE BUT
OFFICIALS KEEP GOING BACK TRYING
TO MAKE SURE YOU DON'T END UP
PICKING UP THIS VIRUS.
>> Carolyn: THERE HAVE BEEN
MULTIPLE PARADES AROUND THE
PROVINCE FOR ESSENTIAL WORKERS
THANKING THEM, SHOWING THEIR
APPRECIATION GOING IN A
MOTORCADE, HONKING THEIR HORNS
WHICH IS LOVELY TO SEE BUT, THE
GOVERNMENT DID ADDRESS THIS.
WHAT DID THEY HAVE TO SAY ABOUT
THAT?
>> THEY'VE SHUT IT DOWN.
IT'S NOT JUST THANKING ESSENTIAL
WORKERS WE'VE SEEN IT FOR
BIRTHDAYS, KIDS WHO WERE
SUPPOSED TO HAVE A BIRTHDAY
PARTY AND INSTEAD YOU CAN EITHER
HAVE STRANGERS COMING BY AND
HONKING OR SOME OF YOUR FRIENDS
AND FAMILY DRIVING BY AND WAVING
THROUGH THE WINDOW AND THINGS
LIKE THAT.
WHAT WE SAW FROM THE DEPARTMENT
OF MUNICIPAL AFFAIRS HAS PUT OUT
A NOTICE TO ALL FIRE DEPARTMENTS
AND MUNICIPALITIES SAYING
PLEASE, DON'T DO THESE.
DR. JOHN HAGGIE, THE MINISTER OF
HEALTH ADDRESSED THAT IN THE
BRIEFING AND HERE IS WHY HE SAYS
THERE'S A HEALTH HAZARD, EVEN
THOUGH PEOPLE ARE IN THEIR CARS.
>> THESE MOTOR KIDS ORIGINATE
SOMETHING AND THEN SOMEWHERE AND
THOSE BEGINNING AND END POINTS
AGAIN YOU'VE GOT THE KIND OF
PARKING PHENOMENON I'VE ALLUDED
TO WITH OTHER THINGS, TEENS,
ADULTS IN COFFEE SHOP PARKING
LOTS WHERE SOCIAL DISTANCING,
PHYSICAL DISTANCING IS BREACHED
AND NOT OBSERVED AND AGAIN THAT
IS A CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT, IS
THE KIND OF PLACE WHERE
TRANSMISSION OF THE VIRUS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN.
>> Reporter: WE SAW JOHN HAGGIE
GO BACK TO THIS ISSUE OF PEOPLE
IN CARS GETTING TOGETHER, AND
THEY THINK OH I'M IN MY CAR SO
I'M OK.
IF YOU ROLL DOWN THE WINDOW WITH
ANOTHER CAR PARKED NEXT TO YOU
AND YOU ARE ONLY A METRE AWAY,
THAT'S STILL NOT THE PHYSICAL
DISTANCING THAT THEY SAY THAT
WE'RE GOING TO DO.
AND THAT WILL BE THE INTERESTING
THING WHEN WE LOOK AT THESE
PROJECTIONS, IS THE QUESTION S.
YOU KNOW, THESE HARDSHIPS THAT
WE'RE TAKING RIGHT NOW.
IT IS HARD TO BE DISTANCE FROM
PEOPLE YOU WANT TO GET TOGETHER
WITH AT EASTER.
IT IS HARD WHEN YOU CAN'T GO OUT
TO A STORE AND BUY THE THINGS
YOU WANT TO BUY.
WHAT IS THAT PAYOFF AND WHAT ARE
WE GETTING IN RETURN FOR TAKING
ALL THESE SACRIFICES INCLUDING
YOU CAN'T GET YOUR HAIRCUT, AND
WHAT IS THE PAYOFF IN TERMS OF
HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL WE KEEP OUT
OF HOSPITAL?
TRYING TO KEEP THOSE NUMBERS
DOWN AND MOSTLY SO THE
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM DOESN'T END
UP LOOKING LIKE IT DOES IN ITALY
OR MORE RECENTLY IN NEW YORK
WHERE YOU SEE A BIG SURGE OF
CASES ALL AT ONCE AND WE DON'T
HAVE THE STAFF, THE EQUIPMENT,
THE BEDS, TO BE ABLE TO LOOK
AFTER PEOPLE.
I THINK THAT'S ONE OF THE
REASONS WHY THEY WANTED TO
RELEASE THIS BEFORE THE EASTER
WEEKEND.
THEY WANT TO GIVE PEOPLE AN IDEA
OF, IF YOU DO WHAT YOU ARE
SUPPOSED TO THIS WEEKEND, THESE
ARE WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE GOING
TO LOOK LIKE.
IF YOU DESERVE A TREAT BECAUSE
I'VE BEEN GOOD AND I DESERVE TO
GET TOGETHER, THIS IS THE OTHER
PATH THAT WE COULD GO DOWN, THE
ONE THAT WE DON'T WANT TO GO
DOWN.
>> Carolyn: THIS COULD BE A
MOTIVATOR FOR PEOPLE TO KEEP
DOING WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND NOT
GET COMPLACENT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.
WE ARE SEEING FEWER NUMBERS,
FEWER CASES EACH DAY AS OPPOSED
TO THE BIG JUMPS.
>> Reporter: IT'S IMPORTANT TO
NOTE, DR. FITZGERALD, THE CHIEF
MEDICAL OFFICER HEALTH, DID
POINT OUT, WE SHOULDN'T READ
INTO THE FACT THAT YESTERDAY WE
HAD TWO NEW CASES, TODAY WE WERE
LOOKING AT FOUR NEW CASES, LIKE
THOSE ARE DEFINITELY LOW NUMBERS
BUT SHE SAID THAT DOESN'T TELL
US ANYTHING.
IT'S THE LONG-TERM TRENDS WE
NEED TO CARE ABOUT.
IT TELLS US WE HAD TWO CASES
YESTERDAY.
THAT'S THE ONLY THING WE SHOULD
READ INTO IT.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER
OR NOT THAT IS GOING TO BE A
LONGER TERM TREND OR IF THAT'S
JUST A BLIP WE SEE OVER A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
>> IF YOU ARE JUST JOINING US
WE'RE WAITING TO HEAR FROM THE
PROVINCE, WE'RE GOING TO GIVE US
SOME PROJECTIONS AND SOME
MODELING AND SOME WORST-CASE
SCENARIOS, A BEST-CASE SCENARIO
AND IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE STARTING
AT 6:00.
UNTIL WE GET TO THAT LIVE NEWS
CONFERENCE, I HAVE ANOTHER
QUESTION HERE FROM TRACY STRIDE
ON Facebook.
SHE WANTS TO KNOW IF THERE'S AN
UPDATED LOCATION MAP OF TODAY'S
CASES?
>> Reporter: SO, THE GOVERNMENT
HAS BEEN PUTTING OUT A TABLE
WITH WARE THOSE CASES HAVE BEEN
IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THEY'VE BEEN UPDATING THAT
EVERYDAY.
THE MAP RIGHT NOW IS STILL, LAST
TIME I CHECKED, IT WAS ABOUT TWO
HOURS AGO, THE MAP WAS STILL
BASED ON THE HEALTH AUTHORITY
AREAS.
THERE'S A TABLE.
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW IN ST.
JOHN'S, HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE THE
DISEASE RIGHT NOW, OR ON THE
BONAVISTA PEN SAUL OR IN
CLARRENVILLE AND THESE AREAS ARE
BROKEN DOWN AND WE SAW THIS WEEK
THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE -- IT DRIVE
HOME FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE AS THE
HEALTH MINISTER SAID IT'S NOT A
TOWNY DISEASE, IT'S IN A LOT OF
COMMUNITIES ALREADY RIGHT NOW
ACROSS THE PROVINCE.
>> Carolyn: EXCELLENT
INFORMATION, PETER.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
AND THANK YOU TO EVERYONE FOR
SENDING IN YOUR QUESTIONS.
THIS IS A SPECIAL SHOW, A
SPECIAL COVERAGE OF THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR.
THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT IS SET
TO RELEASE ITS PROJECTIONS OF
THE IMPACT OF THE ILLNESS OVER
THE NEXT 45 MINUTES OR SO, YOU
WILL HEAR FROM THE PREMIER, THE
HEALTH MINISTER AND THE
PROVINCE'S CHIEF MEDICAL
OFFICER.
YOU WILL HEAR FROM DR. PROTON
RAMEN A CLINICAL SCIENTIST WITH
EASTERN HEALTH AND PROFESSOR AT
MEMORIAL UNIVERSITY.
THEY'RE LOOKING AT WHAT COULD
HAPPEN HERE BECAUSE OF COVID-19.
WHILE WE WAIT FOR THIS TO GET
UNDERWAY, LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT
THE SITUATION IN THE PROVINCE
RIGHT NOW.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY 232 CASES OF
COVID-19.
>> THIS IS A FIRST BIG
OPPORTUNITY SINCE CHRISTMAS
WHERE WE USUALLY GATHER A LOT A
CHURCH OR AROUND OUR SUPPER
TABLE WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS.
WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THIS YEAR,
IT'S DIFFERENT.
WHAT HAS BEEN NORMAL HAS
CHANGED.
TO PUT IT BLUNTLY, YOUR ACTIONS
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND
DETERMINES OUR FUTURE.
WHAT YOU DO THIS WEEKEND WILL
MAKE IT OR BREAK IT.
JOINING ME THIS EVENING IS
MINISTER HAGGIE AND
DR. FITZGERALD, AND DR. RAMEN, I
WANT TO INTRODUCE DR. RAMEN AS
HE IS A NEW FACE TO MANY OF YOU.
HE IS A CLINICIAN, SCIENTIST AT
THE EASTERN HEALTH AND PROFESSOR
OF MEDICINE AT MEMORIAL
UNIVERSITY.
WE'VE ASKED THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR CENTRE FOR HEALTH
INFORMATION TO BRING TOGETHER A
TEAM.
WE'VE ASKED THEM TO CONSIDER
VARIOUS MODELING SCENARIOS TO
HELP INFORM OUR HEALTH SYSTEM
PLANNING FOR THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC IN OUR PROVINCE.
IT'S A FACT, SOME OF YOU WILL
REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION.
SO THIS TEAM WILL HELP US PLAN
AND PREPARE FOR YOUR HEALTHCARE
NEEDS.
WITH EXPERTS FROM VARIOUS AREAS,
A REGIONAL HEALTH AUTHORITIES,
THE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND
COMMUNITY SERVICES AND MEMORIAL
UNIVERSITY.
THROUGHOUT THIS, THEY'VE HAD
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE
PUBLIC-HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA.
THEY ENGAGE WITH THE UNIVERSITY
OF TORONTO, UNIVERSITY OF
OXFORD, THE DEPARTMENT OF
MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND
COMPUTER SCIENCES AT MEMORIAL
UNIVERSITY.
DR. RAM AN'S TEAM AND HE IS HERE
THIS EVENING TO PRESENT THIS
TEAM'S WORK.
AS YOU WILL SOON SEE, 
DR. RAMEN'S PRESENTATION WE
CANNOT LET UP.
EVERY SINGLE MOVE YOU MAKE THIS
WEEKEND AND BEYOND WILL
DETERMINE OUR FUTURE.
IT'S YOUR CHOICE.
I EMPLOY YOU TO MAKE THE RIGHT
DECISION.
DR. RAMEN IS AN INTELLIGENT,
SOFT SPOKEN PERSON SO PAY
ATTENTION AS I HAND IT OVER TO
DR. RAMEN FOR HIS PRESENTATION.
>> THANK YOU, PREMIER.
I'M PREVENTING ON THE WORK DONE
IN OUR GROUP THE LAST 10 DAYS OR
SO.
THE MANDATE IS READY TO LOOK AT
THE TRENDS IN TERMS OF CASES
THAT WE'RE SEEING.
TO DETERMINE THE CLINICAL
CONSEQUENCES HAVING COVID-19 IN
THE POPULATION AND TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE FORECAST OF THE
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM.
THAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT IN TERMS
OF PATIENTS BEING ADMITTED TO
HOSPITAL, ICU, THE NEED FOR
VENTILATORS BUT IT GOES BEYOND
THAT IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT THE
NEEDS IN TERMS OF HUMAN
RESOURCES AND THE NEEDS IN TERMS
OF PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT
IS SUCH GREAT DEMAND.
ALSO IN TERMS OF TESTING WHICH
THERE'S A BIG DEMAND.
FOR TODAY, WHAT I WOULD REALLY
LIKE TO DO IS FOCUS THE
PRESENTATION ON TWO DIFFERENT
THINGS.
FIRST, LOOK AT THE CURRENT
SITUATION.
WHAT IS OUR CURRENT TRAJECTORY
OF COVID-19 AND HOW IT COMPARES
TO THE OTHER PROVINCES?
HOW ARE WE DOING WITH ON GOING
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES AND ARE
AGGRESSIVE AND I'LL SHOW YOU WHY
IT'S APPROPRIATE AND IT'S MADE A
HUGE IMPACT AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DISCUSS THE CHARTER IS I CAN ANF
WHAT IS INFECTED.
WE'LL LOOK FORWARD AND WE'RE
GOING TO TRY TO PROJECT IN TERMS
OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO
US?
THINKING FORWARD IS WORTHWHILE
BUT THERE'S A LOT OF CAVEATS
TOWARDS MODELING AND WE'RE
DISCUSS THE IMPORTANT
LIMITATIONS AND CHALLENGES IN
PROJECTING CASES AND WE'RE GOING
TO SHOW YOU SCENARIOS, SHORT
TERM AND ACUTE CRITICAL CARE BED
NEEDS AS WELL TWO POSSIBLE
LONG-TERM SCENARIOS.
THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY
MARRIED INTO THAT MUCH SCIENCE
AS OF NOW.
SO THE CURRENT SITUATION IN
TERMS OF COVID-19 IN
NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE FIRST THING YOU HAVE TO
ALWAYS REMEMBER AS
DR. FITZGERALD ANNOUNCES THE
CASES EVERYDAY, IS THAT WE'RE IN
TERMS OF POPULATION THE SECOND
LOWEST IN CANADA.
SO YOU TAKE THE NUMBERS AND THEN
YOU HAVE TO CORRECT IT FOR THE
POPULATION SIZE.
WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF GRAPHS
NOWADAYS AND A LOT OF THESE
THINGS WE SEE ARE BELL CURVES.
THE THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT THIS
PARTICULAR GRAPH IS THAT IT'S
THE CUMULATIVE NUMBER, IN OTHER
WORDS, IT DOESN'T COME DOWN AND
THE BEST RESPONSE THAT YOU CAN
HAVE IF THERE'S NO FURTHER
GROWTH IS THAT TURN ON THE CURVE
TURNS FLAT.
SO LET'S LOOK AT TRAJECTORY OF
WHAT HAPPENED.
AROUND THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH
IT WAS A RAPID INCREASE, ALMOST
LIKE THE COVID-19 SPRINTED OUT
OF THE GATE AND THERE WAS ALMOST
AN EXPOSITIONAL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE BEEN WORRISOME IF
IT CONTINUED AND YOU CAN LOOK AT
QUEBEC IN WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
REACH THAT GROWTH.
SO THIS COULD HAVE BEEN
CATASTROPHIC WITH LITTLE WARNING
TO HAVE SO MANY CASES.
BUT SOMETHING HAPPENED AND IF
YOU PROJECT FORWARDS OVER THE
LAST WEEK OF MARCH, YOU HAVE TO
ASK YOURSELF AND WHAT HAPPENED
IS PUBLIC-HEALTH INJURIES AND
THE IDENTIFIED THERE WAS AN
ISSUE IN TERMS OF THE RAPID
PROGRESSION IN TERMS OF NUMBER
OF CASES THAT WE'VE HAD AND JUST
THROUGH HARD WORK AND REALLY
ORGANIZED AND SWIFT RESPONSE
TEAM AND DID MANUAL CONTACT
TRACING AND THEY WERE ABLE TO
IDENTIFY THE CASE AND THEY DID
THAT IN PARALLEL WITH OTHER
MEASURES JUST AS PHYSICAL
DISTANCING AND IN TERMS OF NON
ESSENTIAL WORK.
AND THIS IS MADE THE IMPACT.
THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY FLATTENED
THE CURVE.
AND YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE IT.
AND THESE ARE REAL NUMBERS.
AND NOT MODELING.
SO EVERYTHING THAT WE'RE
ACTUALLY DOING, AS HARD AS IT
IS, MADE A HUGE IMPACT SO NOW SO
MUCH HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT WITH
B.C.
THEY FLATTENED THEIR CURVE.
IT DOESN'T LOOK THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT.
THEY'RE STILL HIGHER THAN B.C.
BUT VERY, VERY ENCOURAGING IN
TERMS OF WHAT IT'S BEEN DONE AND
THE ORGANIZED RESPONSE HAS
REALLY HELPED DIVERT A DISASTER.
LET'S LOOK AT A POPULATION A
LITTLE BIT QUICKER.
AND THERE'S A STORY BEHIND THESE
CURRENT SO IF YOU LOOK AT JUST
THE PROJECTORY FOR THE TOTAL
PATIENTS, IT DOESN'T TELL YOU
WHAT HAPPENED.
ONE PARTICULAR EVENT FOR ALL
SORTS OF GOOD REASONS BUT THE A
AT THE WRONG TIMING WITH A RAPID
INCREASE IN TERMS OF PROGRESSION
OF THE VIRUS.
AND THE TRAJECTORY IN TERMS OF
CASES FROM THE FUNERAL HOME, AS
YOU CAN SEE IT, IT LOOKS
DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IT IS IN OUR
COMMUNITY ELSEWHERE.
WHEN YOU SEE TWO GOING DIFFERENT
WAYS IT WILL BE HARD TO SOME
EXTENT TO MODEL.
THE MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THIS
STORY BEHIND THIS IS THAT IT
JUST STAKES ONE SMALL
INDISCRETION IN A LARGE SETTING
TO LOSE CONTROL IN A SMALL PLACE
IN TERMS OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN FOR
THE VIRUS SPREADING.
SO PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE,
FOLLOW THE SOCIAL DISTANCING
THAT ARE IN PLACE AND
DR. FITZGERALD AND MINISTER
HAGGIE TALK ABOUT.
SO NOW LOOK AT THE HEALTH
CONSEQUENCES OF HAVING COVID-19.
SO THIS IS A NOVEL CORONAVIRUS.
NOVEL MEANS YOU HAVEN'T SEEN IT
BEFORE.
NO ONE IS IMMUNE TO IT.
WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT ANYONE
CAN GET IT AND THOSE LESS THAN
FIVE HAVE GOTTEN IT IN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND MORE THAN 90
HAVE GOTTEN IT BUT IT SPANS ALL
AGE DISTRIBUTIONS.
SOME CAN ARGUE, WELL, THE YOUNG
INDIVIDUALS, MOST OF THEM DO
WELL, 90% WHICH IS EXCELLENT BUT
THE ISSUE OF THAT BEING WELL IS
YOU STILL CARRY AND SPREAD THE
VIRUS.
SO EVERYONE HAS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE IN TERMS OF NOT
TRYING TO TRANSMIT THE VIRUS AND
WHETHER YOU ARE THAT SYMPTOMATIC
OR JUST MILDLY SYMPTOMATIC.
YOU ARE A CARRIER AND YOU HAVE
TO UNDERSTAND THAT PARTICULAR
PRINCIPLE.
SO, THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT
IS WHO IS ACTUALLY GETTING SICK.
SICK DEFINED IF YOU HAVE
MODERATE TO SEVERE DISEASE, YOU
WILL COME INTO HOSPITAL IF YOU
DON'T DO AS WELL YOU GET INTO
THE I.C.U.
STATE AFTER STATE AND PROVINCE
AFTER PROVINCE PEOPLE THAT ARE
OLD ARE, THOSE OVER THE AGE OF
70 DON'T DO WELL.
WE DON'T SEE IT IN OUR DATA
BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE AS MANY
INDIVIDUALS IN THAT PARTICULAR
AGE GROUP BUT THEY SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY CAUTIOUS.
AND HERE YOU CAN SEE THAT 18% OF
THE INDIVIDUALS UNDER THE AGE OF
20 TO 44.
THESE ARE YOUNG PEOPLE THAT
THEY'RE HEALTHY AND THAT'S WHERE
THEY'VE ENDED UP.
SO PLEASE RESPECT THE VIRUS, IT
CAN MAKE YOU SHORT OF BREATH AND
LEAD YOU TO PLACES YOU DON'T
WANT TO GO.
IS THERE ANY OTHER PREDICTORS IN
TERMS OF WHO IS GOING TO HAVE
POOR OUTCOME?
IF YOU HAVE COEXISTING MEDICAL
CONDITIONS.
I THINK ABOUT CORONAVIRUS.
I THINK WHAT BRINGS YOU INTO
HOSPITAL IS YOUR BREATHLESS.
IF YOU HAVE AN UNDERLYING
RESPIRATORY DISEASE THAT YOU ARE
SHORT OF BREATH WHETHER IT'S
ASTHMA, COPD, HEART FAILURE, YOU
ARE AT RISK.
IF YOU HAVE HEART DISEASE YOU
ARE AT RISK.
THESE ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT'S BEEN
NOTED IN POPULATIONS BUT IT'S
IMPORTANT TO THINK ABOUT FOR
YOUR OWN HEALING.
THE THING WE HAVE NOTICED IS
THAT PEOPLE THAT ARE COMING IN,
TO THE I.C.U. OR COMING INTO
HOSPITALS, HAVE MANY MORE OF
THESE SO-CALLED CO MORBID
ILLNESSES OR ADDITIONAL MEDICAL
ILLNESSES THAN THOSE WHO HANDLE
THE VIRUS WELL.
IF YOU HAVE TWO OR THREE OF
THESE CONDITIONS, YOU HAVE TO BE
EXTRA VIGILANT IN TERMS OF WHAT
YOU ARE DOING.
ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE ARE TRYING
TO TELL YOU IS WE HAD A RAPID
INCREASE IN TERMS OF OUR
POPULATION.
THE PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES MADE
A HUGE IMPACT AND WAS REALLY THE
ONLY THING THAT ACTUALLY CHANGED
THE CURVE.
THERE'S NO TREATMENT FOR IT
RIGHT NOW.
NO VACCINE OR MEDICATION.
HOW DID THINGS HAPPEN IN
BENEFICIAL WAY?
IT WAS THROUGH THE PUBLIC-HEALTH
MEASURES THAT WERE IMPLEMENTED.
SO NOW WE'RE GOING TO MOVE INTO
LOOKING FORWARD.
NOT THE DATA THAT WE HAVE BUT
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE DATA
AND THEN PROJECT IT.
SOME MODELING HAS BEEN TALKED
ABOUT A FAIR BIT IN THE PRESS IS
HELPFUL.
IF YOU THINK ABOUT THESE WHAT IF
SCENARIOS IT WILL HELP YOU IN
TERMS OF PLANNING, HELP IN TERMS
OF PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES, IN
TERMS OF HEALTHCARE AND IT'S
HELPFUL TO THINK AHEAD AND SOME
OF THE CHANGES YOU WANT TO MAKE
ARE NOT EASY TO IMPLEMENT AND IT
TAKES TIME AS WELL.
THE ISSUE WITH MODELING,
HOWEVER, IS IT'S FREQUENTLY
WRONG.
IT CAN BE MISLEADING AND THAT IS
BECAUSE THERE'S NUMEROUS
UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS, EVEN IF
THE ASSUMPTIONS ARE GROUNDED IN
THE BEST EVIDENCE THAT WE HAVE.
THE ISSUES REGARDING THE
CORONAVIRUS ARE EVOLVING.
EVEN IF YOU STAY ABREAST OF WHAT
IS ACTUALLY ESTABLISHED, THERE'S
STILL GUESSING AT THE BEST OF
TIMES SO THE MODELS ARE
MISLEADING.
IT'S WORTHWHILE THINKING ABOUT
VARIOUS SCENARIOS THAT WE'LL
PRESENT TODAY.
THE UNIQUE CHALLENGES WE HAVE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND IS 75% OF OUR
PATIENTS ARE FROM THE FUNERAL
HOME COHORT AND THEIR DYNAMICS
IN TERMS OF VIRAL TRANSMISSION
DOES NOT FOLLOW THE NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION.
AND AS A RESULT, CLUSTERING IN
NEWFOUNDLAND IS ESPECIALLY HARD
BECAUSE OF THAT VARIANCE OF
WHERE THE PATIENTS COMING FROM.
CLUSTERING IS DONE WITH A LARGE
MUST BE OF PATIENTS.
THANKFULLY WE'VE HAD ONLY TWO
DEATHS AND OBVIOUSLY OUR HEART
GOES OUT TO THE FAMILY MEMBERS
OF THE INDIVIDUALS THAT HAVE
PASSED
THE LACK OF DEATHS ALSO MEANS
IT'S ACTUALLY HARD TO PROJECT
BASED ON THAT PARTICULAR
PARAMETER.
THERE'S ALSO ANOTHER TECHNICAL
ISSUES WHERE MODELING IS
DIFFICULT.
WHAT'S OUR APPROACH TO LOOK
AHEAD?
IT'S A REAL PRAGMATIC ONE.
LET'S GET THE DATA TO DRIVE THE
MODEL AND THINK THIS IS A WORK
IN PROGRESS.
WHAT ARE WE CONFIDENT ABOUT?
SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS.
THIS IS MUCH MORE VARIABILITY
THE FURTHER THAT YOU GO.
SO WE WOULD LIKE TO TELL THE
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM WHAT IS
HAPPENING NEXT WEEK, WHAT IS
HAPPENING NEXT MONTH AND THEN
LET'S JUST THINK ABOUT POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS BUT NOT REALLY HAVE
CERTAIN PARAMETERS BEYOND THAT.
WE WANT TO LOOK AT CONSISTENCY
WITH THE MODEL THAT WE HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WE'RE GOING TO
BRING IN A PARTNER IN THE
CANADIANS INSTITUTE OF HEALTH
INFORMATION TO SEE HOW THEIR
MODEL FITS WITH OURS AND WORE
GOING TO REACH OUT TO THE
UNIVERSITIES AS A PREMIER BALL
SAID, THE STATS, MATH AND
COMPUTER SCIENCES TO PANDEMIC
EXPERTS IN THE UNIVERSITY OF
TORONTO AS WELL AS TO SOME
VICTIMS IN OXFORD TO LOOK AT
THEIR MODELS AND LEARN FROM
THEM.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE TO DO AT SOME
POINT IN TIME IS MAYBE BUILD A
MODEL THAT ACTUALLY LOOKS AND
ACCOUNTS FOR THAT CLUSTER.
WE'RE GOING TO REFINE OUR MODEL
FREQUENTLY SO WHEN WE GET AN
UPDATED POINTS AND HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF WHERE WE'RE GOING, WE'RE
GOING TO RERUN IT AGAIN.
CONSTANTLY KEEPING AN EYE ON
WHAT IS HAPPENING AND
SUBSEQUENTLY REVISITING THE
NUMBER OF CASES THAT WE HAVE AND
SEE IF WE CAN REFINE OUR MODEL.
WITH ALL THOSE ASSUMPTIONS THAT
SHOW YOU A COUPLE OF GRAPHS, SO
THIS, YOU TALK ABOUT IN THE
PRESS ABOUT THE BEST IN THE
WORST-CASE SCENARIO.
I REALLY WOULD LIKE TO TALK
ABOUT THE CURRENT CASE AND THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO.
AND SO, AT THE PRESENT TIME, IF
THERE WAS MONTH SOCIAL MEASURES
IN PLACE, THE VIRUS WILL DO WHAT
IT DOES.
THAT'S SOMETHING CALLED
REPRODUCTION NUMBER OF 2.3.
SO IF WE REMOVE THE MEASURES
RIGHT NOW YOU CAN SEE THEY'RE A
SLOW EXPONENTIAL INCREASE AND
THIS IS BY NO MEANS A PEAK BUT
AT THE END OF APRIL, WE WILL
ALREADY HAVE 200 INDIVIDUALS
THAT ARE ADMITTED TO HOSPITAL.
IF ON THE OTHER HAND WE FOLLOW
CURRENT MEASURES, AND THIS IS
ACTUALLY THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES IS DRIVEN
THAT REPRODUCTION DOWN FROM 2.3
TO 1.5, YOU CAN SEE THE CASES
ARE MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE IN
TERMS OF HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM AND
WE CAN TAKE CARE OF OTHER
THINGS.
SO THAT IS GREAT.
SO, IF WE CONTINUE TO DO WHAT
WE'RE DOING, FOR THIS MONTH,
WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING WELL.
IN TERMS OF IF WE DON'T FOLLOW
THINGS, WE STILL HAVE THE
CAPACITY RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF
HOSPITALIZATION BEDS, BUT IT'S
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE IT
CATCHES UP TO US.
SO LET'S TAKE THE SAME MODEL AND
LOOK AT IT IN TERMS OF CRITICAL
CARE BEDS.
WHY CRITICAL CARE BEDS?
IT'S A REAL SCARCE RESOURCE
BECAUSE IT GETS SATURATED
QUICKLY AND IF YOU DON'T HAVE
ACCESS TO CIT CARE WHEN YOU NEED
IT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT
PASS INCREASES VERY, VERY
QUICKLY.
SO WHEN YOU NEED THE I.C.U. YOU
ACTUALLY HAVE TO HAVE A BED
AVAILABLE FOR YOU X SO WHEN YOU
ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE ICU
CAPACITY WITH THOSE SAME
PARAMETERS WE'LL RUN OUT AT THE
END OF THE MONTH BECAUSE OUR BED
CAPACITY IN TERMS OF WHAT IS THE
BEDS WE HAVE AVAILABLE AS OF
YESTERDAY WAS 57.
IF YOU CONTINUE WITH SOCIAL
DISTANCING MEASURES AND THE
THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN
PLACE BY THE BALL GOVERNMENT,
YOU ARE ACTUALLY FINE.
I SHUTTER TO SAY THAT AND THAT'S
BECAUSE THINGS CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY.
WE'RE ALREADY MADE AWARE THAT
THERE IS ONE INDIVIDUAL AND
LONG-TERM CARE HOME THAT HAS
COVID-19.
WHY IS THAT AN ISSUE?
WE ALL KNOW THAT PEOPLE THAT ARE
IN LONG-TERM CARE HOMES ARE
OLDER, HAVE MULTIPLE ILLNESSES
AND CLOSE QUARTERS AND IT'S AN
HOTBED IN TERMS OF TRANSMISSION.
SO IT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE VERY
MUCH TO CHANGE THE DYNAMICS AND
EVEN THOUGH WE'RE PROJECTING AND
WE'RE SAYING THIS IS A BEST-CASE
SCENARIO WITH THE PRESENT TIME
AND THINGS CAN EVOLVE VERY
QUICKLY AND ALL OF A SUDDEN WE
HAVE TO RETHINK AND RE ADJUST
WHAT WE'RE DOING.
AT THE PRESENT TIME, IF YOU LOCK
AT THE PROJECTIONS INITIALLY
IT'S IN GREEN IT'S THE ACTUAL
NUMBER OF BEDS AND IT'S ACTUALLY
STARTING TO GO DOWN A LITTLE BIT
AS COMPARED TO THE PROJECTIONS.
WHICH IS GREAT.
AND THE PROJECTIONS ARE OVER
ESTIMATING IT'S EVEN BETTER
NEWS.
THE NEXT TWO SLIDES ARE A LITTLE
BIT HARDER TO EXPLAIN.
AND THIS IS DONE WITH
PARTNERSHIP WITH THE CANADIAN
INSTITUTE OF HEALTH RESEARCH.
SO, THEY USED A COM PART MENTAL
MODEL WITH A MIXED HOMOGENEOUS
POPULATION.
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME THING WE
DID.
WE LOCKED AT OUR ONE MONTH
RESULT AND TO THE INDIVIDUALS
CASES WE ACTUALLY MATCHED
PERFECTLY.
WE LOOKED AT THE HOSPITAL'S
ADMISSIONS AND THE NUMBERS WERE
CLOSE.
SO WE'RE USING A SIMILAR MODEL
TO TRY TO TACKLE THIS ISSUE AND
WHAT THEY HAD WAS AN OUTLOOK OF
WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY HAPPEN.
SO IN THE SCENARIO FROM THE
CANADIAN INSTITUTE OF HEALTH
INFORMATION, THEIR ASSUMPTION IS
ASSUME THAT ONE-THIRD OF THE
NEWFOUNDLANDERS OVER A TWO-YEAR
PERIOD WILL GET CORONAVIRUS.
AND THIS WOULD BE A REASONABLE
NUMBER IF WE ACTUALLY MAINTAIN
OUR PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES AT
THE PRESENT TIME.
SO THE THIRD OF NEWFOUNDLANDERS
WERE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE
EXPOSED TO THE CORONAVIRUS, OK,
GIVEN OUR TOTAL BED CAPACITY, WE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THAT IN TERMS OF OUR HEALTH-CARE
SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE NUMBER OF PRESENT
VENTILATORS THAT WE HAVE, WE
BARELY MAKE IT BUT WE CAN
POTENTIALLY DO IT AND THERE'S
REALLY NO WIGGLE ROOM THERE.
BUT LET'S LOOK AT IT TERMS OF
OUR ICU CAPACITY.
THIS IS A MODEL.
WE'RE NOT SAYING IT'S GOING TO
HAPPEN.
WE'RE PROJECTING WELL BEYOND THE
TIMEFRAME THAT YOU HAVE MUCH
CERTAINTY ABOUT BUT IN THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL, IT'S SAYING
THE END OF JUNE YOU WILL REACH
CAPACITY SOME TIME IN OCTOBER
AND NOVEMBER YOU MADE NOWHERE
BEDS AND OUR SYSTEM HAS TO
ADJUST IF THAT'S THE CASE AND WE
HAVE TO BE MUCH MORE PRUDE IN
TERMS OF WHO IS TAKING UP THESE
BEDS AND WE HAVE TO FIND
RECOVERY ROOMS, OPERATING ROOMS
IN TERMS OF INCREASING OUR
CAPACITY AND MOST IMPORTANT
THING WE CAN ACTUALLY DO IF THIS
WERE TO BE THE CASE IS TO
ACTUALLY DOUBLE DOWN IN A
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES AND
FLATTEN THE CURVE MORE.
THE MORE YOU FLATTEN THE CURVE,
THE EASIER IT IS FOR THE
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEM TO
ACCOMMODATE THAT CHANGE.
GIVEN THE PRESENT MODEL WITH ALL
THE CAVEAT YARDING THE MODEL
WE'RE SHORT IN TERMS OF I.C.U.
BEDS AND IT REACHES CAPACITY
AROUND THE END OF JUNE OR JULY.
IF ON THE OTHER HAND, OK, YOU
ASSUME THAT 51% OF
NEWFOUNDLANDERS HAVE THE
COVID-19 VIRUS, THAT'S JUST
CATASTROPHIC, IT BRINGS US SO
THAT THE PEAK IS A LITTLE BIT
EARLIER, A HUGE NUMBER OF
PATIENTS COME NO HOSPITAL AND
OUR ICU WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
COPING AND WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH
VENTILATORS.
WE'RE HOPING WE NEVER GET THERE.
THE WAY TO DO IT IS TO BE REALLY
STRINGENT IN TERMS OF
SELF-DISCIPLINE REGARDING THE
MEASURES THAT THEY'RE PROMOTING
RIGHT NOW.
SO, IN SUMMARY, I DID NOT PUT
ANY SLIDES IN TERMS OF NUMBERS
BECAUSE IT'S NOT REALLY ABOUT
NUMBERS, IT'S NOT ABOUT
TREATMENTS.
THIS IS ABOUT NON
PHARMACOLOGICAL MEASURES, IN
OTHER WORDS, PUBLIC-HEALTH
MEASURES BECAUSE THIS IS WHAT IS
CLEARLY HELPED IN TERMS OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN FLATTENING
THE CURVE.
SO WE NEED TO CONTINUE THIS BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE HAVE TO
FURTHER IMPROVE OUR EFFORTS TO
ACHIEVE THE BEST POSSIBLE
OUTCOME.
THE FUTURE OUTCOME FOR COVID-19
IS HIGHLY DEPENNANT ON THE
COLLECTIVE EFFORTS -- THE
COLLECTIVE FACT OF OUR
INDIVIDUAL ACTION TO STOP ITS
SPREAD.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU, DR. RAMEN AND
THANK YOU FOR YOUR PROTECTIONS
AND THE WORK THAT YOU'VE PUT
INTO YOUR PRESENTATION TONIGHT.
IT'S CERTAINLY PAINTS A CLEAR
AREA AND STARK PICTURE OF WHY WE
MUST REMAIN VIGILANT.
WHAT WE DO THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL MAKE IT OR BREAK IT.
YOUR ACTIONS THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL DETERMINE THE
TURNING POINT OF THIS VIRUS.
WE KNOW THAT THERE'S NO
CERTAINTY IN PREDICTIONS, THE
INFORMATION WE HAVE IS BASED ON
DATA AND THAT CAN OF COURSE
CHANGE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN THAT EVERYONE IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COVID-19
VIRUS.
WE KNOW THAT EVERYONE CAN
TRANSMIT IT.
WE HAD A COUGH FEW WEEKS IN
NEWFOUNDLAND LABRADOR AND WE HAD
A CLUSTER AT THE FUNERAL HOME.
THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE GOT
INFECTED IN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME AND THANKFULLY WE WERE ABLE
TO CONTAIN IT BY CONTACT
TRACING.
AND IN SAYING THAT, WE LOST TWO
PEOPLE IN OUR PROVINCE DUE TO
COMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19.
WE HAVE TWO FAMILIES THAT ARE
GRIEVING.
TWO FAMILIES THAT HAVE LOST A
LOVED ONE.
AND THIS POINT IN TIME, THEY
CAN'T PROVIDE THEM WITH A WAY OR
A PROPER FUNERAL.
THEY CAN'T HUG OR CONSOLE EACH
OTHER WHEN THEY NEED IT THE
MOST.
IT'S DEVASTATING FOR THESE
FAMILIES.
WE DON'T WANT THAT FOR YOURS.
THE REALITY IS, IT COULD EASILY
BE YOU.
YOU COULD BE NEXT.
YOUR PARENTS COULD BE NEXT.
YOUR GRANDPARENTS COULD BE NEXT,
OR YOUR CHILD COULD BE NEXT.
WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT WHO IS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE, IT'S PEOPLE BETWEEN
THE AGES OF 55-64.
IT'S ME, IT'S SOME OF YOU.
WE ARE THOSE WHO END UP IN
I.C.U. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR
POPULATION, WELL, THAT'S WHERE
THERE'S MORE OF US THAN ANYONE
ELSE.
THOSE ARE NOT THE WORDS I WANT
TO SHARE WITH YOU TONIGHT.
THESE ARE THE WORDS THAT I HAVE
TO SHARE.
AS COVID-19 TAKES LIVES.
IT'S ONLY YOUR ACTIONS AND WE
WILL SAVE LIVES.
IT HAS NO BOUNDARIES AND AGE
DOESN'T MATTER, GENDER DOESN'T
MATTER, POSTAL CODES, WELL THEY
DON'T MATTER.
THIS VIRUS ISN'T BASED IN ST.
JOHN'S, IT'S NOT BASED ON THE
GREAT NORTHERN PENINSULA, IT'S
NOT BASED IN GANDER OR LABRADOR
OR EVEN IN MY OWN COMMUNITY OF
DEER LAKE, IT'S EVERYWHERE.
YOU HAVE TO ACT AS THOUGH THE
PERSON IN FRONT OF YOU HAS THE
VIRUS, BECAUSE THEY MIGHT.
YOU ARE ONLY ONE STEP AWAY FROM
THIS VIRUS.
A STEP AWAY FROM BRINGING INTO
YOUR COMMUNITY.
YOU ARE NOT INVINCIBLE.
WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN OUR
PROVINCE THAT WANT TO PUT SOME
POSITIVITY IN PEOPLE'S LIVES.
WELL I DO TOO.
I'VE HEARD STORIES OF PEOPLE
WANTING TO GO BACK TO CHURCH
SERVICES OR MOVIES, TO PARADES
TO WISH PEOPLE A HAPPY BIRTHDAY
OR CELEBRATE AN ANNIVERSARY.
THEY'RE ALL GREAT INTENTIONS.
HEARTS ARE IN THE RIGHT PLACE.
BUT YOU CAN'T.
SIMPLY NOT SAFE RIGHT NOW.
BY DOING THAT, YOU WOULD BE
INCREASING THE RISK OF SPREADING
THE VIRUS.
WE KNOW WHAT WE'RE ASKING OF
YOU.
DAY IN AND DAY OUT.
IT'S DIFFICULT.
THAT IS THE POINT WE'RE AT RIGHT
NOW.
WE PUT GUIDELINES IN PLACE AND
WE'RE ASKING YOU TO FOLLOW THEM.
ONLY GO ONCE A WEEK FOR
ESSENTIALS, TRAVEL ONLY WHEN
IT'S ESSENTIAL.
THE VIRUS ONLY MOVES WHEN YOU
MOVE.
THAT IS HIS GREATEST STRENGTH.
IT'S ALSO ITS GREATEST WEAKNESS
AND FOLLOW THE RULES?
WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO
AND I KNOW IT'S HARD.
IN ORDER FOR ANY OF US TO HAVE A
FUTURE, WE MUST REMAIN VIGILANT
AND NOT LET UP.
TOGETHER, LET'S TAKE A HOLD OF
THE VIRUS AND NOT LET IT TAKE
AHOLD OF US.
I WILL NOW TURN IT OVER TO
DR. FITZGERALD FOR HER COMMENTS.
>> THANK YOU, PREMIER.
GOOD EVENING, THANK YOU FOR
JOINING US TODAY.
THANK YOU, INTEREST RAMEN FOR
SHARING THIS INFORMATION WITH US
THIS EVENING AND WHILE IT
REMAINS EARLY IN THIS DISEASE,
TO MAKE PROJECTIONS YOUR
PRESENTATION HELPS US PUT THINGS
IN PERSPECTIVE.
EARLY DATA INDICATES THAT OUR
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES ARE
HAVING THE INTENDED EFFECT.
I WANT TO THANK EVERYONE FOR
YOUR EFFORTS.
BY STAYING IN YOUR BUBBLE,
PHYSICAL DISTANCING, WASHING
YOUR HANDS AND GOING OUT ONLY
WHEN NECESSARY, YOU ARE HELPING
TO CURVE THE SPREAD OF COVID-19
IN OUR PROVINCE.
WHILE THIS INFORMATION IS
ENCOURAGING, I NEED YOU ALL TO
UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS JUST THE
BEGINNING AND OUR WORK IS NOT
DONE.
WE MUST CONTINUE TO ABIDE BY THE
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES IN PLACE.
WE'RE IN THIS FOR A LONG TIME
YET AND AS DIFFICULT AS ITAS
BEEN, WE MUST KEEP THE PEDAL TO
THE FLOOR.
AS DR. RAMEN REFERENCED, NOW IS
NOT THE TIME TO BE COMPLACENT,
IT'S TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN.
IF WE EASE UP ON OUR EFFORTS,
TWO WEEKS FROM NOW IT WILL BE A
DIFFERENT PICTURE AND TWO MONTHS
FROM NOW CATASTROPHIC.
WE STILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
REDUCE THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS
IN OUR PROVINCE AND KEEP OUR
LOVED ONES AND OURSELVES SAFE.
HOW WELL WE ADHERE TO THESE
PUBLIC-HEALTH MEASURES THIS
EASTER WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE
HOW COVID-19 WILL LOOK IN THE
COMING WEEKS.
WE KNOW COVID-19 IS CONTAGIOUS
BEFORE A PERSON IS SYMPTOMATIC
AND WE HAVE ALWAYS KNOWN THAT
WHEN WE MOVE, THE VIRUS MOVES
WITH US.
WE HAVE SEEN FIRSTHAND RIGHT
HERE AT HOME, HOW QUICKLY AND
EASILY THE VIRUS CAN SPREAD.
AS HARD AS IT IS, THIS YEAR
CALLS FOR A DIFFERENT EASTER
TRADITION.
ONE THAT KEEPS US SAFE IN OUR
PROTECTIVE BUBBLE AND OUR
FAMILIES AND FRIENDS SAFE IN
THEIRS.
THE SACRIFICES WE MAKE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING US ALL CLOSER
TO A TIME WHEN WE CAN RESUME OUR
LIVES AND MOVE FORWARD.
DOING THE THINGS WE ENJOY WITH
THOSE WE LOVE MOST.
LEADERS OF OUR FACE COMMUNITY
ARE OFFERING SERVICES FOR
INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES WHO
WOULD HAVE ATTENDED CHURCH THIS
EASTER WEEKEND, YOU CAN JOIN IN
FROM THE SAFETY OF YOUR OWN HOME
TO EMBRACE YOUR FAITH AND
CELEBRATE WHAT EASTER MEANS TO
YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES.
I KNOW THAT WHAT WE'RE ASKING
YOU TO DO IS HARD.
I KNOW THAT THERE ARE PERSONAL
CONSEQUENCES FOR ALL OF YOU.
I ALSO KNOW THAT THESE MEASURES
ARE WHAT WILL WORK TO REDUCE THE
SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN OUR
PROVINCE.
THESE MEASURES WILL HELP KEEP
YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES SAFE.
TODAY, FOR A CHANGE, I'LL CLOSE,
WITH AN UPDATE ON CASES IN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR AND
SINCE THE MEDIA BRIEFING
YESTERDAY, WE HAVE FOUR NEW
POSITIVE CASES.
THESE CASES ARE WITHIN THE
EASTERN HEALTH AND CENTRAL
HEALTH REGION.
THE PUBLIC-HEALTH CONTACT
TRACING IS ON GOING AND EVERYONE
CONSIDERED CLOSE CONTACT WILL BE
ADVISED TO QUARANTINE.
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN OUR
PROVINCE IS NOW 232 AND BY
REGION WE HAVE 219 CASES IN
EASTERN HEALTH, SIX IN CENTRAL
HEALTH, ONE IN WESTERN HEALTH,
AND SIX IN LABRADOR GRAND FELL
HEALTH.
53 PERCENT OF CASES ARE FEMALE
AND 47% ARE MALE.
BY AGE, WE HAVE 20 PEOPLE UNDER
THE AGE OF 20, 34 BETWEEN 20-39,
33 BETWEEN 40-49, 51-59, 50
BETWEEN 60 AND 69, AND 44 WHO
ARE OVER 70.
SIX PEOPLE ARE IN HOSPITAL DUE
TO THE VIRUS AND OF THESE TWO
ARE IN INTENSIVE CARE.
74 PEOPLE HAVE NOW RECOVERED.
WE MUST MAKE A CONTINUED
COLLECTIVE EFFORT TO ADHERE TO
THE RULES OF PHYSICAL DISTANCING
TO STAY HOME EXCEPT FOR
ESSENTIALS, TO WASH OUR HANDS
FREQUENTLY AND WELL AND STAY
HOME IF YOU ARE FEELING SICK.
WE HAVE AT A PIVOTAL POINT RIGHT
NOW TO REDUCE THE SPREAD OF
COVID-19.
IT IS THAT SIMPLE.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME THIS
EVENING.
I HOPE YOU ALL TAKE CARE AND
STAY SAFE.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU, DR. FITZGERALD.
I ALSO WANT TO TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO THANK YOU FOR
YOUR OWN PERSONAL SACRIFICES AND
YOUR UNWAVERING SUPPORT TO THE
PEOPLE IN OUR PROVINCE.
I NOW TURN IT OVER TO DR. HAGGIE
AND I ALSO WOULD WANT TO COMMENT
AND SAY THIS MINISTER IS DOING A
REMARKABLE JOB IN LEADING OUR
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND
COMMUNITY SERVICES AND I WANT TO
THANK HIM AT THIS POINT FOR HIS
HARD WORK AND NOW I TURN IT OVER
TO HIM FOR A FEW COMMENTS.
>> THANK YOU, VERY MUCH,
PREMIER.
I THINK DR. RAMEN AND HIS TEAM
ARE TO BE CONGRATULATED ON WHAT
IS REALLY A MADE IN NEWFOUNDLAND
AND LABRADOR APPROACH.
I THINK THERE MAY HAVE BEEN
EXPECTATIONS THAT WE WOULD COME
OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
APPROACH HERE AROUND MODELS,
WHAT WE'VE DONE IS TRIED TO
DELAY FORECAST.
A DRAW A WEATHER ANALOGY.
EVERYBODY IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR LOOKS AT THE WEATHER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK AND
WE KNOW HOW VARIABLE IT IS.
FROM MY FLYING DAYS, I CAN TELL
YOU THAT WEATHER IS REALLY
IMPORTANT IN PLANNING.
YOU LOOK AT THE WEATHER AND YOU
GET VERY ACCURATE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THROUGH THE AVIATION
SERVICES AND YOU USE THAT TO
MAKE A PLAN.
KNOWING THAT A PLAN IS JUST THAT
AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND
YOU PUT ALTERNATE DESTINATION
AND WHAT WE'VE TRIED TO DO IS
MIRROR THAT APPROACH WITH A
HOMEGROWN SOLUTION.
JUST AS WE'RE THE WEATHER, WITH
ANY LEVEL OF FORECASTING.
THERE'S ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY TO
PREDICT IN THE FUTURE.
IT'S EASY TO POKE HOLES AND
STATISTICIANS SAID, ALL MODELS
ARE WRONG BUT SOME CAN BE
USEFUL.
AND I THINK THE INFORMATION
PRESENTED HERE TODAY IS USEFUL
FROM AVA RYE TEE OF
PERSPECTIVES.
AS UPDATED NUMBERS COME IN,
DR. RAMEN AND HIS TEAM WILL
REVISE THEIR PROJECTIONS AND RUN
THE NUMBERS AGAIN.
WHEN THOSE PROJECTIONS CHANGE,
AS THEY WILL, THIS GROUP WILL BE
IN A POSITION TO ADVISE US AND
HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATORS AS TO
HOW BEST TO RESPOND.
IT'S A GUIDE BUT IT'S A MADE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR GUIDE.
WE'VE DONE THAT BECAUSE WE DON'T
HAVE THE TYPES OF DATA AND THE
TYPES OF NUMBERS THAT YOU SEE IN
OTHER TERRITORIES AND PROVINCES.
WE HAVE THAT ONE BIG LOCALIZED
CLUSTER THAT WE KNOW SKEWED OUR
DATA.
THIS APPROACH, HOWEVER, DESPITE
BEING UNIQUE TO THIS PROVINCE IS
SOUND.
IT'S BEEN VALIDATED
INDEPENDENTLY BY THE CANADIAN
INSTITUTES OF HEALTH
INFORMATION.
IT'S AN IMPORTANT TOOL WE'LL USE
TODAY AND IN THE FUTURE FOR
PLANNING AND FOR PREPARATION.
BUT IT'S ALSO AN APPROACH WHICH
CAN PREDICT BETTER WHAT HAPPENS
OVER SHORTER TIME PERIODS.
PERIODS OF 30 TO 60 DAYS.
AND WE CAN USE THIS SORT OF VERY
GRANULAR LEVEL TO HELP THE
REGIONAL HEALTH AUTHORITY'S PLAN
TO GIVE THEM AS MUCH AND
POSSIBLE AND PRACTICAL AND
SAFEGUARD THE SYSTEM YET ALLOW
FOR CHANGE AS WELL.
THE INDIVIDUAL HEALTH
AUTHORITIES WILL BE PROVIDING
WITH INFORMATION THAT WILL BE
ENABLE TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF
WHAT THE PROJECTIONS ARE FOR
THEM IN THEIR OWN LOCATIONS TO
SEE WHAT CAPACITY THEY NEED.
ENABLE THEM, ALSO, TO SEE WHAT
THEY NEED TO DO DIFFERENTLY.
DR. RAMEN HAS A SHORTFALL, FOR
EXAMPLE, EVEN UNDER THE
BEST-CASE SCENARIO FOR IN TENSE
I HAVE CARE BEDS AND WE'RE
HAVING CONTINGENCY PLANS AS TO
HOW TO ADDRESS THAT.
WE MAY NEED TO FURTHER REFINE
THE LAYOUT AND THE ALLOCATION OF
FACILITIES AND RESOURCES WITHIN
HOSPITALS.
BUT AS THESE SLIDES INDICATE,
THESE PROJECTIONS ARE BASED OVER
A TWO-YEAR INFECTION RATE.
THIS CANNOT BE ABOUT WAITING OUT
THIS VIRUS.
IT'S ABOUT ADAPTING TO ITS
EXISTENCE AND CREATING OUR OWN
NEW NORMAL.
THIS IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY ANY
TIME SOON.
IT'S GOING TO ECHO THROUGH THE
REST OF THE YEAR IN SOME FORM OR
ANOTHER.
HOW BAD THOSE ECHOS ARE DEPEND
ON HOW WE BEHAVE.
NOW MAKES A DIFFERENCE.
IT'S NOT A TIME FOR COMPLACENCY.
SLIPPING NOW WILL PUSH US TO THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO THAT
DR. RAMEN AND HIS TEAM HAVE
PRESENTED.
WITH MORE NEWFOUNDLANDERS AND
LABRADORIANS BEING EXPOSED TO
AND GETTING THE VIRUS OVER THIS
NEXT TWO-YEAR PERIOD.
THESE FIGURES ALSO SHOW THAT
PEOPLE 55-64 ARE THOSE MUCH MORE
LIKELY TO RISK HOSPITALIZATION
AND MUCH MORE LIKELY TO END UP
IN INTENSIVE CARE UNITS.
THOSE WITH TWO CONDITIONS OR
MORE DO LESS WELL.
DIABETES AND HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE
ARE MENTIONED ON THOSE SLIDES.
WE KNOW THAT WE HAVE THOSE
CONDITIONS IN LARGE NUMBERS IN
THIS PROVINCE.
THEY'RE COMMON UNFORTUNATELY.
OUR GREATEST CHALLENGE THEREFORE
IS TO PRESENT THE SPREAD OF THE
VIRUS.
THE BETTER CASE SCENARIO, WHICH
IS STILL GOING TO BE A
CHALLENGE, BASED ON WHAT WE DO
NOW AND WHAT WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO
DO, RELIES ON US CONTINUING, AT
LEAST TO DO THAT AND TO IMPROVE
ON IT.
AND CERTAINLY THE DISCUSSIONS
THAT ARE GOING ON IN OUR
DEPARTMENT AT THE MOMENT AND
ACROSS GOVERNMENT ARE WHAT OTHER
ADVISE IS THERE FOR THINGS THAT
WE CAN DO IN ADDITION TO THOSE
THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY DOING.
BUT THE OTHER SCENARIO, WHERE
50% OR MORE OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND
LABRADOR ACQUIRE THIS VARIOUS
OVER TWO YEARS SHOWS US VERY
CLEARLY THE AWFUL PROSPECT IF WE
SLIP NOW IN ANYWAY, WE WILL
SIMPLY NOT BE ABLE TO COPE
WITHOUT DRASTIC CHANGES AND IT'S
UNLIKELY WE WILL BE SUCCESSFUL.
WHAT WE DO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
MATTERS.
WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK FROM
FAMILY HOLIDAYS.
WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK FROM
GOING TO THE CABIN.
YOUR NEXT CABIN PARTY WILL BE
OUR NEXT CALLS.
WE WILL NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO
DEAL WITH THAT OVER THE LONGER
TERM.
UNLESS YOU ARE AN ESSENTIAL
WORKER, THE ONLY REASON TO BE ON
THE ROAD THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
FOR YOUR OWN IMMEDIATE HEALTH
NEEDS.
ANYTHING ELSE IS RASH AND
FRANKLY IT ENDANGERERS EVERY ONE
OF US NOT JUST YOU.
THE VIRUS ONLY MOVES IF WE MOVE.
STAY SAFE, KEEP US ALL SAFE, BY
STAYING HOME THIS WEEKEND.
THANK YOU, PREMIER.
>> THANK YOU, MINISTER HAGGIE
AND THANK YOU DR. FITZGERALD.
IN CONCLUSION TONIGHT, I ALSO
WANT TO THANK DR. RAMEN FOR HIS
PROJECTIONS AND HIS REGULAR
UPDATES, WHICH HE IS COMMITTED
TO PROVIDE TO NEWFOUNDLANDERS
AND LABRADORIANS AND THE GREAT
SUPPORT HE HAS TO OUR TEAM.
SO IF THERE IS ONE MESSAGE THAT
I WANT YOU TO TAKEAWAY TONIGHT,
IT'S THIS -- THIS IS NOT A TEST
OF OUR SYSTEM, TO TEST OF YOU.
THE SYSTEM FAILS ONLY IF YOU
FAIL.
WHAT WE DO THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND, WILL MAKE IT OR BREAK
IT.
YOUR ACTIONS WILL DETERMINE IF
THE VIRUS GROWS OR IT DIES.
SO DON'T LET UP.
KEEP YOUR DISTANCE.
STAY SAFE.
WE WISH YOU A HAPPY EASTER
WEEKEND.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WILL NOT
SEE US TOMORROW, BUT FOR THOSE
OF YOU WHO WILL BE TUNING IN, IT
WILL BE A REGULAR BRIEFING AT
2:00 P.M. TOMORROW.
I THANK YOU.
>> Carolyn: THAT WAS THE
PREMIER, A LIVE PRESENTATION OF
THE PROVINCE'S PROJECTIONS, THE
MODELING.
THE FORECASTING FOR THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC IN THIS PROVINCE MANY
OF THE PREMIER SAYING IT IS MAKE
IT OR BREAK IT TIME FOR SURE.
A LOT OF INFORMATION TO DIGEST
FROM THAT PRESENTATION FROM
DR. RAMEN.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY SEEMS TO BE
THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO STAY ON
COURSE AND TO MAKE SURE THESE
PUBLIC MEASURES ARE FOLLOWED OR
ELSE THE CONSEQUENCES COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC.
PETER COWAN IS WITH ME NOW.
YOU WERE IN THE TECHNICAL
BRIEFING TODAY AND YOU JUST
LISTENED TO EVERYTHING THAT JUST
HAPPENED THERE.
ONE THING THAT WAS INTERESTING
IS THAT WE DIDN'T HEAR ANYTHING
ABOUT THE DEATHS.
WE SAW PROJECTIONS FROM ALBERTA
AND QUEBEC AND THEY OUTLINED THE
POSSIBILITIES WORST-CASE
SCENARIO FOR THE DEATHS IN THOSE
PROVINCES.
>> Reporter: THOSE ARE NORMALLY
THE SHOCKING NUMBERS WHEN YOU
SAY WOW, IF WE DON'T DO THIS, X
NUMBER OF PEOPLE WILL DIE.
DR. RAMEN WAS SAYING THAT WE
NEED FIVE DEATHS IN ORDER TO BE
ABLE TO PUT THIS INTO A MODEL
AND START TO GET RELIABLE
NUMBERS.
WE'VE ONLY HAD TWO DEATHS SO FAR
AND THAT DOESN'T GIVE THEM AN
UPDATE TO GIVE YOU ANYTHING VERY
ACCURATE AND THEY ARE GOING TO
BE RERUNNING THIS EVERY WEEK OR
EVERY TWO WEEKS SO WE SEE
UPDATED NUMBERS AND WE'LL SEE
SOME OF THOSE DEATH TOTALS.
>> Carolyn: WE SAW A COUPLE OF
SCENARIOS THERE THE WORSE CASE
AND PROBABLE AND THE PUBLIC
MEASURES, DON'T CHANGE.
WHAT WERE SOME OF THE BIG
TAKEAWAYS FOR YOU WATCHING ALL
OF THAT?
>> Reporter: ONE OF THE BIG
TAKEAWAYS IS EVEN ON THE
BEST-CASE SCENARIO, WORE GOING
TO RUN OUT OF ICU BEDS.
THE GOOD NEWS, IT'S NOT AN ISSUE
THAT'S GOING TO BE IN THE NEXCOM
OF WEEKS.
THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO BIT END
OF JUNE IT WILL BE GREATER THAN
THE NUMBER OF BEDS.
THE HEALTH MINISTER IS WORKING
ON CONTINGENCY PLANS.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO TO
CREATE MORE BEDS.
THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS THEY
CAN DO.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO START
WORKING ON THAT RIGHT NOW AND
THAT'S THE WHOLE IDEA BEHIND
IMPLEMENTING THESE MEASURES
MEANS IT'S GOING TO TAKE LONGER
IN ORDER TO BRING THIS OUT.
>> Carolyn: CAN YOU EXPLAIN
THESE SCENARIOS FOR US.
THE 32%.
>> Reporter: SO THIS IS LOOKING
AT THE LONG-TERM SCENARIO.
THOSE DONE AT THE NATIONAL
LEVEL.
WE GAVE THEM THE DATA AND THEY
RAN IT THROUGH THEIR MODEL SO IT
ASSUMES THAT OVER TWO YEARS, 30%
OF THE POPULATION WILL GET THIS
DISEASE.
THE HOPE IS IT DOES IT SLOWLY.
WHAT THAT SHOWS IS THEY'RE
LOOKING AT THE PEAK NUMBER OF
INFECTIONS.
EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW WHEN WE
WILL GET BETTER, IT SHOWS THAT
WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL NOVEMBER.
THIS COMES WITH SOME BIG AS
TRIX.
QUEBEC IS SAYING IT COULD BE THE
END OF APRIL AND WE'RE SEEING
ALBERTA SAYING MAY FOR THE PEAK,
THE ISSUE IS WE HAVEN'T SEEN A
BIG RUN UP IN CASES.
THOSE PROVINCES HAVE.
SO, THEY ARE WARNING THAT IF WE,
BECAUSE OF SAY A PARTY ON THE
WEEKEND, 20 PEOPLE GET IT AND
THEY SPREAD IT AND WE SEE A BIG
UPTICK IN CASES WE COULD SEE
THAT AND THAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY
CHANGE THE NUMBERS.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE
WORST-CASE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF
THE LONG-TERM.
SO THIS IS ASSUMING THAT 52% OF
THE PEOPLE GET INSPECT THOSE ARE
THE SCENARIO WE'RE TRYING TO
AVOID.
>> HOW MUCH STOCK TO WE PUT IN
THIS BECAUSE DR. RAMEN STRESSED
THE NUMBER OF TIMES THIS PROCESS
CAN BE FLAWED AND THESE MODELS
CAN BE WRONG AND THERE'S A LOT
DEPENDING ON IT AND A LOT CAN
CHANGE.
>> Reporter: I FEEL LIKE WE
SHOULD HAVE ASHLEY BRAUWEILER
JOINING US.
THAT'S WHY THE PROTECTIONS THEY
DID HERE ONLY WIND TO THE END OF
THE MONTH.
THE FATHER OUT YOU TWO, THE THE
LESS LIKELY THEY ARE.
THE REALITY IS WE HAVE TO TAKE
IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
THIS IS NOT SAYING THIS IS WHAT
WILL HAPPEN.
THE THOUGHT THE WEATHER FORECAST
AS A GREAT ANALOGY.
AS WE ALL KNOW ESPECIALLY IN
NEWFOUNDLAND, THINGS LOOK
DIFFERENT IN A WEEK.
THEY'RE USING THESE AND THEY'RE
SHARING THEM WITH THE PUBLIC IN
ORDER TO HAVE THAT
ACCOUNTABILITY SO AT LEAST WE
GET TO SEE THEIR NOTES.
WHAT ARE THEY WORKING FROM.
WHAT INFORMATION ARE THEY USING
AS THEY TRY AND PLAN FOR THE
FACILITIES THEY NEED AND THE
VENTILATORS AND THINGS LIKE
THAT.
>> CERTAINLY, A MOTIVATOR I
GUESS FOR PEOPLE AS WE HEAD INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
THAT WAS MENTIONED A NUMBER OF
TIMES.
HOW CAREFUL PEOPLE NEED TO BE
THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
THIS IS NOT A TIME TO SPEND IN
THE PRESENCE OF FAMILY.
IT SEEMS THAT THEY ARE CONCERNED
THAT IF THERE'S ANY SLIP UP IN
THAT, IT COULD REALLY CHANGE THE
DYNAMIC HERE, JUST LIKE WHAT
HAPPENED WITH CAUL'S WHICH MAKES
UP 75% OF THE CASES.
>> Reporter: TALKING ABOUT GOING
TO THE CABIN, THE CLIP FROM THE
PREMIER WE RAN EARLIER IN THE
SHOW IT WAS LIKE, YOU CAN GO IF
YOU WANT.
JOHN HAGGIE THE HEALTH MINISTER
SEEMED A LOT MORE CERTAIN ON NO,
DON'T GO TO THE CABIN.
IT'S NOT BECAUSE THE CABIN IN
AND OF ITSELF IS DANGEROUS IT'S
THE WHILE YOU ARE AT THE CABIN
AND THERE'S THE NEIGHBOURS YOU
HAVEN'T SEEN IN A LONG TIME, AND
MAYBE WE'LL JUST INVITE THEM
OVER FOR ONE QUICK DRINK.
THAT'S THE CONCERN I THINK WITH
THE CABIN IS IT'S A SOCIAL
PLACE.
PEOPLE GO BECAUSE THEY WANT TO
GET TOGETHER WITH FRIENDS AND
THAT IS WHAT THEY WANT TO AVOID
IS KEEPING EVERYONE IN THEIR OWN
BUBBLE AND NOT AS THEY SAY
BURSTING SOMEONE ELSE BECAUSE
THAT'S WHERE WE TRANSITION AND
RATHER THAN IT BEING ONE OR TWO
PEOPLE GET SICK IT'S 20 OR 30
PEOPLE.
>> Carolyn: HOW CONCERNED SHOULD
WE BE ABOUT VENTILATORS AND ICU
BEDS, HOW DO THEY PLAY OUT IN
TERMS OF WHAT WE HAVE AND IN
THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
>> HOSPITAL BEDS, WE'RE IN
PRETTY GO AHEAD SHAPE.
>> Carolyn: TAKE ANY GOOD NEWS
RIGHT NOW.
 [LAUGHTER]
>> Reporter: IT'S THE ICU BEDS
THAT ARE AN ISSUE AND
VENTILATORS, IT DEPENDS ON THE
SCENARIO.
UNDER THE SORT OF BEST CASE,
EVERYONE DOES THEIR PART WITH
THE PHYSICAL DISTANCING AND THE
HAPPENED WASHING AND EVERYTHING
WE'RE SUPPOSED TO BE DOING.
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH VENTILATORS
IF THE PROJECTIONS HOLD.
IT'S ICU BEDS.
THAT WILL BE THE KEY THING AND
THAT IS WHY WE'RE SEEING THE
PLANNING FOR THE HEALTH
DEPARTMENTS IN ORDER TO TRY AND
FIGURE OUT HOW TO CREATE MORE
ICU BEDS.
THERE ARE THINGS THAT THEY CAN
DO.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO START
DOING THEM NOW TO MEET THAT
SURGE.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING.
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THESE
NUMBERS.
THEY'RE GOING TO, AS THINGS
PROGRESS AS WE GET NEW DATA,
THEY'RE GOING TO UPDATE THOSE SO
EVERY WEEK OR TWO WE'LL SEE NEW
NUMBERS AND THE ONLY THING I CAN
GUARANTEE I'M SURE WE WILL START
TO SEE VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
PLAY OUT AS THEY GET BETTER DATA
AND THEY FEED IT INTO THESE
COMPUTER MODELS.
>> Carolyn: HOW WORRIED DO YOU
THINK PEOPLE SHOULD BE AFTER
WHAT THEY JUST SAW?
>> Reporter: THEY'RE WORRIED BET
PEOPLE GETTING COMPLACENT.
IT'S BEEN A MONTH SINCE WE'VE
SEEN THE FIRST RESTRICTIONS.
AND IT IS TIRING.
TO NOT BE ABLE TO SEE FRIENDS,
TO HAVE SMALL CHILDREN WHO HAVE
TONS OF ENERGY AND VERY LIMITED
WAYS TO BURN IT OFF.
PLAY WITH FRIENDS, YOU CAN'T
HAVE THEM DO THAT RIGHT NOW.
SO, IT CLEARLY FROM THEIR
FRIENDS, I THINK MY BIG TAKEAWAY
FROM THAT WAS THEY'RE WORRIED
THAT PEOPLE WILL JUST SORT OF
SAY, AH, MAYBE I'M JUST SO TIRED
OF DOING THIS.
I'LL TRY AND FIND A LOOPHOLE OR
TRY AND RELAX A LITTLE BIT.
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EASTER
WEEKEND WHERE WE TRADITIONALLY
DO GET TOGETHER AND THAT'S WHY
THEY REALLY DROVE THE MESSAGE
HOME AND THAT'S WHY THEY PICKED
6:00 AS THE TIME TO DO THIS
BRIEFING.
THEY WANTED TO ADDRESS THIS
WHOLE POPULATION.
WORTH NOTING OF COURSE, THEY
DIDN'T TAKE QUESTIONS FROM
REPORTERS TODAY AT THE BRIEFING.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE FIRST DAY
IN 28 DAYS I THINK THAT JANICE
FITZGERALD HASN'T BEEN AVAILABLE
TO ANSWER QUESTIONS FROM PESKY
REPORTERS SO THEY HAVE PROMISED
IT WILL BE BACK AT IT TOMORROW
AND WE'LL HAVE SOME OF THESE
FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS, NOW THAT WE
KNOW THE NUMBERS, WHAT ARE THEY
GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?
>> WE'LL SEE WHAT TOMORROW
BRINGS.
I'M SURE YOU WILL BE ASKING YOUR
QUESTIONS.
>> I WILL BE THERE.
>> FOR SURE.
THANK YOU SO MUCH, PETER FOR
GIVING US SOME CONTEXT AND
BREAKING IT DOWN FOR US.
SO NOW WE'RE GOING TO GO TO
ANOTHER EXPERT IN MODELING AND
FORECAST, HERE IS ASHLEY
BRAUWEILER WITH THE WEATHER.
>> Ashley: IT'S A NICE DAY.
SEASON A WE'RE SITTING AROUND 1º
AS OUR AFTERNOON HIGH AND CORNER
BROOK SAW A HIGH OF 4º AND ABOUT
2º WAS THE AFTERNOON HIGH IN
HAPPY VALLEY-GOOSE BAY.
SO WE STILL HAVE THAT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND WE'LL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WE'RE SEEING AREAS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SCOT RESIDENT FLURRIES
AND IT'S PRETTY MUCH THE STORY
TONIGHT EXCEPT WE WILL SEE SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY
AREAS IN ALONG THE WEST COAST IN
THOSE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WE'LL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE MINUS DOUBLE DIGITS AND
OVER ALL JUST DROPPING A COUPLE
DEGREES PRETTY MUCH FOR EASTERN
AREAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND UP
THROUGH LABRADOR, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH PRETTY MUCH AROUND NAIN,
FIVE CENTIMETRES BY THE TIME
TOMORROW MORNING ROLLS AROUND
WITH SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE BIG
LAND.
TOMORROW, THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THAT SO WE'RE NOT
GOING TO SEE MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES OR WHAT IS REALLY
GOING TO HAPPEN SO PROBABLY SOME
CLOUD COVER ON THE WEST COAST
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST AS
WELL AND EASTERN AREAS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND RATHER AND SOME
SCATTERED FLURRIES.
IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND THOSE WINDS WILL EASE A
LITTLE BIT AND 15 TO 20
KILOMETRES PER HOUR AND UP
THROUGH LABRADOR AS WELL LIGHT
WINDS WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR YOU AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE THE STORY.
SO, TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO
FRIDAY, THAT'S WHEN THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER, WINDS RAMP
UP NO SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND WE'LL SEE SNOW
START.
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST AND SNOWFALL AMOUNT FIVE TO
AS MUCH AS 10 CENTIMETRES SNOW
AND ENDING IS DRIZZLE AND
THROUGH AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST COAST AND EAST COAST,
EASTERN AREAS AND WE'LL SEE THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND
NORTHERN PENINSULA, SOUTHEASTERN
LABRADOR, PROBABLY CLOSE TO THE
10 CENTIMETRE MARK AND BLOWING
SNOW WE WILL WITH THE WINDS
REALLY RAMPING UP LIKE I SAID.
THIS WILL STAY AS A SNOW EVENT
FOR MOST OF LABRADOR AND THEN
IT'S GOING TO STAY PRETTY
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
NOW, ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND WARNING
FOR THE WRECK HOUSE AREA AND
GUESTS BETWEEN 1 OTHER TO AS
MUCH AS 160 km/h AND
ANTICIPATING WE'LL PROBABLY SEE
MORE WIND WARNINGS WITH THAT ONE
AS THE DAYS OR AT LEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW WHEN WE'LL PROBABLY SEE
THOSE WIND WARNINGS ISSUED.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEY WILL BUMP INTO THE 4º TO 5º
RANGE FOR MOST OF US, HENCE THAT
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
AND THEN STAYING AROUND A COUPLE
DEGREES WITHIN ZERO FOR THE BIG
HAND AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
LAST NIGHT, HOPEFULLY YOU GOT
OUT TO CHECK OUT THE SUPER PINK
MOON.
I WANTED TO SHARE THIS FROM
VANESSA MOONEY.
THANK YOU FOR SENDING THAT IN.
IF YOU HAVE ANY WEATHER VOTES TO
SHARE, SEND THEM IN.
>> Carolyn: THANK YOU SO MUCH,
ASHLEY.
NOW TO NATIONAL NEWS, THE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS MAKING
CHANGES TO ITS FINANCIAL HELP
PLAN FOR CANADIANS.
THAT INCLUDES ADJUSTING THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE WAGE
SUBSIDY PROGRAMME AND ADDING
MORE MONEY TO THE STUDENTS
SUMMER JOB PROGRAMME.
THE SUBSIDY PROGRAMME STILL
NEEDS TO BE PASSED BY PARLIAMENT
BEFORE IT CAN GO INTO EFFECTMENT
JULIE VAN DUSEN HAS THE DETAILS.
>> Reporter: BUSINESSES ARE
TRYING TO RIDE OUT COVID-19.
TRYING TO SURVIVE UNTIL THE
DEADLY PANDEMIC LISTS AND THAT
INCLUDES AIRLINES.
TODAY AIR CANADA ANNOUNCED IT
WOULD REHIGHER THE 16,500
EMPLOYEES IT LAID OFF LAST WEEK
BY TAPPING INTO THE GOVERNMENT'S
WAGE SUBSIDY PROGRAMME.
ONCE PARLIAMENT A PROVES IT.
>> IT'S GREAT NEWS TO SEE THE
FACT THAT AIR CANADA HAS
RETAINED THESE EMPLOYEES AND
THAT WAS THE EXACT INTENT OF THE
WAIT SUBSIDY.
>> Reporter: THE GOVERNMENT SAYS
IT WILL MAKE THE WAGE SUBSIDY
MORE FLEXIBLE.
THEY WILL QUALIFY WITH A LOWER
REVENUE DROP THAN THE ONE THAT
WAS FIRST ANNOUNCED.
THAT WILL MEAN MORE BUSINESSES
CAN BENEFIT AND MORE EMPLOYEES
WILL BE KEPT ON THE PAYROLL AND
THAT'S MORE CHANCES THE ECONOMY
WON'T TANK COMPLETELY.
>> THE OBJECTIVE IS TO MAKE SURE
THAT WE HAVE ALL THE TOOLS THAT
WE NEED TO PREVENT THAT
RECESSION FROM BECOMING A
DEPRESSION.
>> Reporter: THE OPPOSITION
SAYS, THE NEED IS URGENT.
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN
MUCH FASTER WITH ITS FINANCIAL
AID.
>> IF THESE BUSINESSES GO
BANKRUPT, YOU WILL SEE MILLIONS
OF PEOPLE FORCED TO GO TO FOOD
BANKS, MANY WILL BE HOMELESS,
THEY WILL BE AN ENORMOUS
INCREASE IN POVERTY.
>> Reporter: AS FOR THE MILLIONS
OF PLOY OWES WHO HAVE BEEN LAID
OFF SO FAR, THEY'RE RUSHING TO
TAP INTO BENEFITS THAT ARE NEWLY
AVAILABLE.
>> WE PROCESSED 3.87 MILLION
TOTAL PLANS.
THIS MEANS, SINCE MARCH 15TH,
MILLIONS OF CANADIANS WOULD HAVE
SEEN AND WILL SEE THEIR FIRST
CERB PAYMENT OF $2,000.
>> Reporter: ALSO TODAY, THE
GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED CHANGES TO
THE CANADA SUMMER JOBS
PROGRAMME.
IT WILL BOOST THE WAGE SUBSIDY
UP TO 100%.
IT WILL CREATE 70,000 JOBS FOR
YOUNG FEMALE IN ESSENTIAL
SERVICES.
THE ONLY JOBS THAT STILL EXIST
IN THIS PANDEMIC.
JULIE VAN DUSEN, CBC NEWS,
OTTAWA.
>> EXACTLY 100 DAYS OF THE FIRST
ALARM AFTER CORONAVIRUS WAS
SOUNDED IN WUHAN, THE LOCKDOWN
OF THE CITY IS OVER.
A LIGHT SHOW WAS HELD AT THE
STROKE OF MIDNIGHT TO CELEBRATE
THE LIFTING OF THE 76-DAYLONG
BAN ON ENTERING, LEAVING OR
MOVING AROUND IN THE CITY.
IT'S NOT A COMPLETE ALL CLEAR.
WUHAN'S 11 MILLION RESIDENTS
MUST STILL WEAR MASKS IN PUBLIC,
KEEP YOU WILL DISTANCING AND
STAY HOME AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
THE END OF THE LOCKDOWN
TRIGGERED A MASS EXODUS FROM THE
CITY AS NON RESIDENTS WHO WERE
TRAPPED IN THE CITY WHEN THE
LOCKDOWN WENT INTO EFFECT WERE
ABLE TO HEAD FOR HOME.
THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE A
CERTIFICATE AND A Q.R. CODE
PROVING THEY RECEIVED A CLEAN
BILL OF HEALTH.
ACCORDING TO THE CHINA RAILWAY
CORPORATION, 55,000 PEOPLE LEFT
WUHAN TODAY.
>>> AND THE GOOD WILL GESTURE
CAN GO A LONG WAY THESE DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT'S UNEXPECTED.
MANY PEOPLE IN COMMUNITIES IN
AND AROUND HAMILTON, ONTARIO
WERE SURPRISED TO FIND FLOWERS
ON THEIR DOOR STEPS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AND THE MYSTERY DELIVERY CAME
WITH A NOTE.
>> THE CARD SAID WE HAVE PLANTS
THAT CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE A HOME
AND WE'D LIKE TO SPREAD SOME
CHEER TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY.
I THOUGHT, ARE THEY GIVING
FLOWERS TO EVERYBODY IN DOWNTOWN
HAMILTON?
I WAS TRYING TO THINK THE LAST
TIME THAT I WAS GIVEN FLOWERS.
I USUALLY GIVE FLOWERS.
IT WAS LIKE THE EASTER BUNNY
LEFT FLOWERS FOR ME WHEN I GOT
HOME.
>> Carolyn: THEY ARE FROM THE
RAVENS FAMILY WHO OPERATE A
LARGE GREN HOUSE AND THEY CAN'T
OPEN THEIR STORE RIGHT NOW SO
THEY DECIDED TO SAVE THEIR
PLANTS FROM THE COMPOST AND AT
THE SAME TIME SPREAD A BIT OF
HOPE.
EARLY EASTER GIFT TO THOUSANDS
OF PEOPLE WHO CAN CERTAINLY USE
THE SMILE RIGHT NOW.
THIS PANDEMIC HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY HARD ON SENIORS,
MANY ARE ISOLATED IN THEIR HOMES
WITH LITTLE TO DO AND FEW IF ANY
OPPORTUNITIES TO INTERACT WITH
THE OUTSIDE WORLD.
ONE RETIREMENT RESIDENTS IN
QUEBEC CITY HAS FOUND A GREAT
WAY TO CONNECT, ACROSS, UP AND
DOWN OR CORNER TO CORNER.
>> YES, THEY ARE PLAYING BINGO
ON THEIR BALCONY OR TABLES
OUTSIDE.
ALL IN KEEPING WITH PHYSICAL
DISTANCING RULES.
A LOUD SPEAKER IS THE KEY OF
COURSE.
MAKING THIS PANDEMIC VERSION OF
THE GAME WORK.
BALCONY BINGO IS PLAYED THERE
TWICE A WOKE SO RESIDENTS ON
BOTH SIDE OF THE BUILDING CAN
TAKE PART.
>>> WELL THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
JOINING US ON THIS SPECIAL
EDITION OF "HERE & NOW."
WE WERE ON AIR FOR AN HOUR AND A
HALF WITH LIVE COVERAGE WITH THE
PREMIER AND HEALTH OFFICIALS
TALKING ABOUT THE PROJECTIONS IN
THIS PROVINCE AND TOMORROW WE'LL
HEAR MORE FOR SURE.
I'D LIKE TO THANK PETER COWAN
FOR BEING HERE WITH US TONIGHT.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT, EVERYON
