- Hi, everybody.
Ian Bremmer here.
I've got your World In
more than 60 Seconds.
As long as we're in crises mode,
I am doing more seconds.
It's the least I can do, right?
And I have your questions right here,
opened up and ready to go.
His name's Mustafa Adib,
and I had never heard of him.
I mean, he wasn't being
considered for Prime Minister
until, apparently, 24 hours ago.
He was Lebanon's Ambassador to Germany,
or is Lebanon's Ambassador to Germany,
and also a PhD in Political Science,
so, clearly, we must like him
and he can't be a bad guy.
Looks, basically, like a technocrat.
But in part it's because
Lebanon is impossible to govern
and can't agree
on any of the well-known
and outspoken figures.
And this is a massive economic challenge
that they're facing.
Their currency is falling apart.
Their budgets they can't fund.
They had that massive explosion
that's gonna cost billions
to rebuild Beirut,
just happened a couple of weeks ago.
They're also fighting coronavirus.
They have millions of
refugees on their territory
that they're paying for,
and they don't have as much
money from the Gulf States
that they had historically,
because they're facing their
own budgetary challenges,
on top of which it's really hard
to get an IMF deal done
when you don't have effective governance
and when Hezbollah is part
of your government structure.
So it's pretty ugly.
I wish this guy well.
I can't imagine we're
gonna be hearing from him
for very long,
but that is the situation in Lebanon.
Godspeed.
Well, a couple of reasons.
First, because, you know,
it's a very poor country,
and people are getting tired and angry
of a pretty significant
and severe lockdown
that Prime Minister Modi
had originally put in place.
Also, India is a relatively young country,
and so even if they have lots of cases,
not as many people are going
to need hospitalization,
and mortality rates are
comparatively much lower
than they are in the United
States or Western Europe.
That matters.
Also, you have so many people
that are prepared to live
with a threat of disease,
whether it's coronavirus or others,
if that means that they can work
and they can continue to
provide for their families,
'cause the alternative
with so many people at subsistence living
is much worse,
and that's particularly true
when you're not even testing many people,
so you don't really
understand the broad contours
of the crisis.
I mean, there were some recent tests
in this one slum that's
the largest in Mumbai,
over a million people live in it.
I've not gone into it,
but I've driven right
by it on many occasions.
And 50% of that population
was shown to have some kind
of antibodies for coronavirus,
I mean, just ripping through that area,
and yet you didn't see
big demonstrations or
riots about coronavirus,
where you will if the
lockdowns last for longer.
It's a lot easier to
engage in longer lockdown
and longer quarantine in
countries with a lot of money
and the ability to
provide continued support
for their populations,
like in Europe,
like, at least until
now, the United States,
though we'll see what happens
with the Phase Four stimulus deal.
In the US it's getting a lot tougher
for a lot of people too.
It's looking less likely.
The demonstrators are non-violent,
completely non-violent,
and in some cases hundreds of thousands,
certainly in most cases,
tens of thousands,
on the streets for a few weeks solid now,
in Minsk and in some other places.
But Lukashenko, the
President, the dictator,
who stole this election,
claiming 80% of the popular vote,
he clearly got nowhere close to that,
is now detaining and
arresting journalists.
He has taken away the accreditation
of all of the local journalists
for Western institutions,
so we're not getting the
same news on the ground
that we were just a couple of days ago.
They've also brought in special forces
and they've brought in tanks into Minsk,
certainly sending a
very disturbing message.
All of that happening
on the back of President Putin of Russia
saying that if certain
red lines were crossed,
that the Russians would come in
and provide direct support for Lukashenko.
Putin had been staying on
the sidelines for weeks.
He certainly does not
want to engage militarily,
that will undermine popularity
for Russia in Belarus.
But he's now providing nearly
a blank check for Lukashenko.
And at the end of the day
you have to believe that that
makes it much less likely
that the supporters of democracy
on the streets in Belarus
are going to succeed.
Horrible to say that,
horrible to see this,
but that is what it looks like right now.
Certainly, personally, continuing to stand
for those demonstrators,
and hope that they can
persist and prevail.
But, my god, very dangerous
and very courageous.
If I had a kid right now in Belarus,
I wouldn't want him or her to
be out there on the streets.
And that's what you also
have to watch out for, right?
I mean, the human dimension here.
It's very easy to say, "Stand for them,"
but in many of the industries,
for example, in Belarus,
you had seen demonstrations,
but they're not willing
to risk their jobs,
because otherwise how are
they gonna make a living.
And so they haven't persisted
with the kind of grass movement action
in shutting down the strike action,
and shutting down those places
that you've seen among the
population as a whole in Minsk
does look like it's
moving towards Lukashenko
and towards state power.
Well, you know, even in Germany,
where they've done an awful
lot to provide support
for the middle and working class,
and to ensure that people
continue to have the ability
to take care of themselves,
to meet their bills,
to not get evicted from their apartments,
all of that,
there is a significant level of impatience
with very tough lockdowns
and shutdowns across Germany.
There's been very wide support for Merkel,
there's been a federal system in Germany,
but much better alignment
among the federal leaders,
the regional leaders in Germany,
than you've seen among Red and Blue states
in the United States, for example.
Merkel's popularity remains very high
consistently through the pandemic,
but you also saw
thousands of the far right
actually demonstrating in Berlin,
opposed to social distancing,
opposed to mandatory lockdowns.
It is a tiny percentage of the population
compared to those sorts of sentiments
in other parts of Europe,
and certainly in the United States,
but something to watch out for,
particularly something to watch out for
in former Eastern Germany,
where that political sentiment
is by far the strongest,
but also a part that's
done comparatively well,
given the social and economic response
of the German government
since coronavirus has hit.
So I wouldn't worry too much about that,
but, clearly, something
that's worth the headlines,
especially as the US continues
to be dominated by Trump,
dominated by social, racial instability,
and, of course, our own pandemic,
so important to be looking at the news
happening around the world today,
especially because this
pandemic is truly global
and is affecting all of us together.
So that's it from me.
I'll see you all again next week.
Be good.
