So in the last friday episodes we talked about how we could modify starship in a straightforward
way to make our future flights to mars safer and to reduce health risks for our future mars settlers.
But today we want to start to think about how exactly SpaceX actually wants to colonize mars.
What exactly is Elon's plan to build the first
settlements on mars?
How will the timeline look?
Where will the first base be built?
And how exactly will the first base be built
and how will it actually look?
Well I would say, let's find out!
This is the first video of a four part
series which we do in collaboration
with our good friend, the angry astronaut.
We are really happy to do this collaboration
and you can watch the second video on his channel next week, his video will discuss
Mars colonization efforts apart from SpaceX and Elon Musk, especially NASA's Mars projects and plans
So be sure to check out his channel after you've watched this video here
And yes he is not a fan of PC culture either, which is a strong motivation for this
collaboration in the first place.
Anyways, so how exactly does Elon want to
make Mars settlement a reality?
Well, we all know that Starship will be the
vehicle which will allow us to live on other worlds.
Starship is the only vehicle in development
which has the necessary payload capability,
namely 100 metric tons to the surface of mars, per trip.
In order to get there, we know that Starship
is currently being built and tested at Boca Chica
That's right, what we see here are really
the first steps towards the colonization of Mars
The first extremely important milestone for
Starship will be to demonstrate an uncrewed
orbital flight, hopefully later this year
or in early 2021.
Then, we think Elon will test Starship on
an uncrewed rountrip around the moon, possibly
by late 2021, or early 2022, depending of
course on when the Super Heavy Booster will
be ready.
In 2023 we might see a first uncrewed landing
of Starship on the moon, as a demonstration
mission to secure further funding from NASA
for their Artemis program.
We also will see the dear moon mission with Yusaku Maezawa around the moon in 2023.
Make no mistake
Because all these moon missions will test crucial systems of starship for mars.
Orbital refueling for instance, will also
be needed for moon landings, so it is crucial
that this technology is available before the
first mars missions.
we think that orbital refueling will be tested
around 2022.
It remains to be seen if that will happen in time
to send two uncrewed cargo Starships to mars
still in the 2022 launch window, as Elon planned it initially.
We try to remain realistic here, so we think
no.
Elon also planned the first human missions to Mars in 2024, which we could probably all agree on,
is absolutely out of the question.
The chance of that happening is below 0.1% in our opinion.
We can be very happy if Starship can land
the first humans on the moon in 2024, something
which Elon by the way basically also confirmed in a tweet.
The moon will be the testing ground for future Starship mars missions
We think that orbital refueling and the lessons learned from the first moon
missions will allow Starship to carry out the first
cargo missions to mars in 2024.
The first two cargo starships might already also take payloads with them for the future mars base, however,
it could happen that these two Starships will just carry some dummy payloads, in order to test the system in
2024 so we don't risk losing any valuable payloads in the very first attempt of Starship landing on the red planet.
Because let's be realistic, there is quite a
high likelihood that the first attempt
of Starship landing on mars wouldn't be successful, something somehow nobody wants to talk about,
but you know us, we like to say inconvenient stuff sometimes.
So after Starship has successfully demonstrated
that it can safely aerobrake in the martian
atmosphere and can safely land, then we think
we'll see the first real cargo missions to Mars.
The next launch window will be in early 2027.
We assume that by that time we will see the launch of more than 2 Starships, because SpaceX
will be aware that everything took a few more years than initially planned.
So in order to make up for this, in 2027 we might see more than two Starships
depart for Mars, maybe even 4 or more.
By that time, more lessons learned from the moon missions will be applied to the mars
Starships, and Starlink will be producing huge revenues for SpaceX, enabling
them to start to build giant fleets of Starships.
Currently, the Erebus Montes region is the
favored site for our first future mars base.
It is ideal for several reasons.
First of all, it has a very low elevation, so it's very low lying therefore the atmospheric pressure is higher,
which provides better protection from cosmic rays, thus reducing the radiation exposure.
The radiation exposure difference on mars
can actually vary dramatically, as we can see on this
radiation map here.
Erebus Montes lies here, so the radiation
dose equivalent would be around 13 rems per
year, which corresponds to 0.13 Sievert per year.
So 7.7 years outside staytime on mars would correspond to a dosage of 1 Sievert,
which is regarded as the maximum lifetime safety limit.
This can of course be further reduced to negligible levels by living in habitats, which
are surrounded by 3d printed regolith domes,
a method which we currently favor, as this
would really reduce cosmic radiation exposure
to absolutely zero.
Now another reason why the Erebus Montes site is so excellent, is that this water map here shows that there
are giant subsurface water ice reserves in
that area.
And water ice is, as we know, essential for
a mars base but also for a moon base.
Not only to provide drinking water and water for the hydroponic farms, but also to generate oxygen
for breathing and hydrogen for propellant
production.
The hydrogen reacts at 400°C and high pressure
with the CO2 from the martian atmosphere via
the famous Sabatier reaction and thus creates Methane fuel for Starship
Another reason which speaks for the Erebus Montes site is, that it's still not too far north, so the
sun is still powerful enough for large solar arrays.
And on top lava tubes are also nearby, which
could provide additional possibilities to
build subsurface bases and of course because
lava tubes are the most promising location
to find martian fossils or maybe even primitive
mars life such as bacteria, or with any luck maybe even a bit higher developed life.
So after the first cargo Starships have landed on mars in
2027, carrying many probably expandable
habitat modules with them, power generation in form
of solar arrays and radiothermal isotope generators,
propellant production machines, maybe even
a boring machine, then of course a couple of cybertrucks,
because come on people, we need a mars version of
cybertruck.
Then for sure also hydroponic modules, Kimbal will
certainly gladly provide some.
And also lots of 3d printers of course, because many parts will be manufactured on site using martian regolith.
For example the protection domes over the habitat modules could easily be printed by 3d printing robots.
All this is absolutely essential cargo to build our first mars base.
By the way, Elon mentioned mutliple times
that SpaceX will only get people to mars.
So the cargo carried by Starship probably won't be SpaceX's own equipment.
We think many companies will want to contribute
to the first mars base, as it would be a giant investment
opportunity for the future.
Of course synergies with Elon's other companies
such as the Boring Company or Tesla would be extremely likely.
The boring machines are just perfect for mars.
Then a mars rover version of the cybertruck and also Tesla solar arrays and Tesla batteries.
And maybe even Neuralink VR, in case someone might
miss earth a lot.
We think, and these are by the way just our estimations
based on more realistically sounding Elon time adjustments,
that 2029 will then be the year where the
first mars settlers will be sent to Mars in
a fleet of Starships.
How many is anyones guess, but we talked in
our previous mars Starship series of videos,
which you can watch right here, that a maximum
of 30 people per Starship would be advisable.
So let's say 10 crew Starships will launch
for mars in 2029, so a total of 300 people, and
of course a few additional cargo Starships.
They would arrive on mars the same year, hopefully
by the way enjoying artificial gravity and
radiation protection on the way, as we also suggested
in our videos, and then we would witness the
first footsteps of humans on mars in 2029.
This is still quite optimistic by the way,
so don't be sad if it will be 2031 or even 2033.
But this is still infinitely better than anything
we could have hoped for before Elon came along.
Anyways, so now the first settlers will immediately
get to work and build up the base.
They will land near the cargo Starships, which
will have landed in 2027, and unload the cargo
from those Starships, but also from the ones
which have landed together with them.
First, the regolith domes will have to be
built, or maybe there won't be regolith domes,
instead just very good shielded habitat shelters,
like this proposal here called Marsha from Ai Spacefactory.
We still would prefer domes for better cosmic
ray protection though, such as proposed for example
by Hassell, or this one here by Search+ and
Apis Cor.
These would completely eliminate the cosmic
radiation problem.
After setting up the habitat modules, power
generation would be paramount.
The solar arrays will be set up, together
with the radiothermal isotope generators.
Solar arrays alone won't suffice, because
you know, there are quite gigantic dust storms
on mars from time to time which can last for many months, completely darkening the sky
and also covering solar arrays with sand, so we will also additionally need radio isotope generators.
After power goes online, the hydroponic modules
will be attached to the base.
After that, water extraction machines will
be set up, followed by propellant production machines.
So after the first mars base has been set up and is running smoothly, the next wave of cargo starships
and settlers would arrive.
More and more Starships will be launched each
launch window about every 2 years.
Then at some point in the 2030s, we think the next generation Starship 2.0 will
enter production which will have 4 times the
interior volume of the 1st generation Starship,
and much higher payload capacity.
More and more mars settlers will thus arrive in
the late 2030s.
In 2029, 300 people will have arrived in
our scenario. In the late 2030s with Starship 2.0,
ten thousand people could arrive in each launch window.
And in 
the late 2040s, tens of thousands of people would arrive during each launch window.
Therefore, having over one hundred thousand people
living on mars by 2050 is achievable.
We think 1 million would be a bit over the
top, but 100,000 is certainly doable.
However by 2060 or 2070, 1 million people
might be achievable, and 10 million by 2100
is certainly within the realm of possibility.
After that, we can start to think about terraforming mars, but this will be the topic for another episode.
So do you 
think our mars colonization timeline is too optimistic or too pessimistic?
Or are you even a hardcore Elon believer and say that yes, we will send humans to mars in 2024?
And be sure to check out our friend's, the Angry Astronaut's channel for the 2nd video.
And if you have missed our Starship flaw fix series, where we talk about how to
how to overcome the radiation problem or the zero g problem on trips to mars,
you can watch the videos right here.
So thanks for watching and I'd say...on to the future!
