>> Sreenivasan: JOINING US NOW
VIA SKYPE IS NPR'S LONDON
CORRESPONDENT, FRANK LANGFITT.
FRANK, YOU WERE OUT THERE ON THE
STREETS YESTERDAY WHEN PEOPLE
WERE OUT THERE ON THIS MOMENTOUS
OCCASION.
WHAT WERE THEY SAYING?
>> WELL, IT REALLY DEPENDED ON
WHO YOU TALKED TO AND WHERE YOU
WENT.
I WAS DOWN AT PARLIAMENT SQUARE
LAST NIGHT RIGHT IN FRONT OF BIG
BEN, WHERE THERE WAS THOUSANDS
OF PEOPLE.
SOME OF THEM WERE WEARING UNION
JACKS AS CAPES AROUND THEIR
SHOULDERS.
THEY WERE THRILLED BY THIS.
THEY FELT THAT THIS WAS THEIR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
OTHER PLACES YOU WENT, THERE
WERE CANDLELIGHT VIGILS OF
PEOPLE, I THINK, SAD, BUT
ACCEPTING THIS, KNOWING THAT
REMAINING IN THE E.U. IS NOT
GOING TO HAPPEN.
AND EVEN A FEW CLASHES I SAW
BETWEEN REMAINDERS AND LEAVERS.
SO, THERE'S STILL... YOU COULD
REALLY SEE A LOT OF THE
DIVISIONS STILL IN THIS COUNTRY.
>> Sreenivasan: OKAY, SO HERE
YOU ARE WAKING UP IN THIS
POST-E.U. BRITAIN, AND, IF 
YOU'RE A LEAVER, WELL, THE ROSES
HAVEN'T STARTED TO BLOOM; AND IF
YOU'RE A REMAINER, THE EARTH
HASN'T OPENED UP AND SWALLOWED
THE ENTIRE ISLAND.
SO, WHAT IS THE ACTUAL IMPACT ON
A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS?
>> RIGHT NOW, ALMOST NOTHING.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED THIS
MORNING.
AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS THE
LAST THING THAT THE UNITED
KINGDOM OR THE E.U. WOULD NEED
IS SOME SORT OF ABRUPT, YOU
KNOW, SEVERING OF THE
RELATIONSHIP.
THEY NOW HAVE 11 MONTHS IN A
TRANSITION PERIOD TO TRY TO WORK
OUT A NEW FREE TRADE ARRANGEMENT
BETWEEN THE BOTH SIDES.
AND THAT'S GOING TO BE VERY
DIFFICULT-- IN FACT, MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT, IF YOU CAN IMAGINE
IT-- THAN THE LAST THREE AND A
HALF YEARS THAT LED TO PARALYSIS
IN THE GOVERNMENT HERE.
THE EUROPEAN UNION WOULD LIKE A
MUCH CLOSER RELATIONSHIP.
THE UNITED KINGDOM, THEY WANT
INDEPENDENCE, AND THAT MEANS
THEY'LL PROBABLY HAVE TO PAY FOR
IT WITH TAXES AND TRADE
BARRIERS.
>> Sreenivasan: AND THAT MEANS
THAT ALSO WHEN YOU SAY
RENEGOTIATE, THAT MEANS WITH
EACH MEMBER NATION?
>> NO, THEY'LL BE DOING IT
ENTIRELY WITH THE E.U.
BUT WHAT'S REALLY IMPORTANT
HERE, HARI, THAT'S IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER, IS THE E.U. WILL NOW
BE 460... 450 MILLION CONSUMERS
AND ABOUT 60-SOME HERE.
SO, THIS IS A VERY IMBALANCED
RELATIONSHIP.
THE E.U. HAS A LOT OF LEVERAGE.
ALSO, THERE'S THIS SHORT WINDOW
TO DO THIS.
SO, THAT'S A LOT OF PRESSURE ON
THE UNITED KINGDOM IF THEY DON'T
WANT EVENTUALLY CRASH OUT AT THE
END OF THIS YEAR.
>> Sreenivasan: RIGHT.
AND THEN, WHAT ABOUT SCOTLAND IN
THE MIDDLE OF ALL THIS?
>> THIS IS ABSOLUTELY
FASCINATING.
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH SCOTLAND
RIGHT NOW IS, AS YOU HAVE THE
BREXITEERS CHEERING, YOU KNOW,
IN PARLIAMENT SQUARE, YOU HAVE
PEOPLE UP IN SCOTLAND SAYING,
"WE NEVER VOTED FOR BREXIT.
WE DON'T WANT TO LEAVE THE E.U.
WE WANT INDEPENDENCE.
WE WANT A REFERENDUM AS SOON AS
WE CAN GET ONE."
BORIS JOHNSON HAS SAID THE PRIME
MINISTER WILL NOT DO THAT
ANYTIME SOON.
BUT IT'S CONCEIVABLE WITHIN IN
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE YEARS,
THERE COULD BE AN INDEPENDENCE
REFERENDUM.
AND I THINK THE NIGHTMARE
SCENARIO FOR THE U.K. IS, YOU
KNOW, PEOPLE LIKE BORIS JOHNSON,
THE BREXITEERS, THEY GET BREXIT,
THEY LEAVE THE E.U. AND THEY
LOSE SCOTLAND IN THE PROCESS.
>> Sreenivasan: AND HOW
IMPORTANT IS SCOTLAND IN THIS,
AND WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
>> WELL, I'VE ALSO SPENT QUITE A
BIT OF TIME IN NORTHERN IRELAND.
THEY'RE WATCHING SCOTLAND.
THERE'S A MOVEMENT NOW, MORE...
MORE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY
REUNIFY WITH THE ISLAND OF
IRELAND.
SO, YOU CAN FEEL THINGS REALLY
STRAINING HERE UNDER BREXIT, AND
THERE COULD BE A DOMINO EFFECT.
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
>> Sreenivasan: ARE THERE
PARALLELS BETWEEN WHAT'S BEEN
HAPPENING IN THE U.K. IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF YEARS AND WHAT'S
PERHAPS HAPPENED IN THE UNITED
STATES QUITE SOME TIME AGO?
>> TONS OF COMPARISONS IN TERMS
OF 2016 ELECTION AND HERE.
I FIND OFTEN AS I TRAVEL--
PARTICULARLY, I SPENT A LOT OF
TIME IN THE NORTH OF ENGLAND--
THESE ARE POST-INDUSTRIAL
COMMUNITIES.
AND WHEN YOU HAVE CONVERSATIONS
WITH PEOPLE UP THERE, HARI, I
MEAN, THEY SAY THE SAME SORT OF
THINGS YOU WOULD HEAR IN
MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE IS A... A SENSE OF A
COUNTRY CHANGING TOO FAST,
SUFFERING FROM GLOBALIZATION.
THEY FEEL THAT THEY'VE BEEN LEFT
BEHIND BY ELITES IN LONDON.
IT'S ALL THE SAME KIND OF
LANGUAGE, BUT IT IS VERY
HEARTFELT.
AND WHAT BORIS JOHNSON WAS ABLE
TO DO IN DECEMBER WAS TO GO UP
THERE AND SPEAK TO PEOPLE,
PROMISE TO GET BREXIT DONE AND
THEN REINVEST IN THE NORTH.
AND THAT WAS THE WAY HE WAS ABLE
TO WIN A BIG ELECTION.
SO, WHAT HE DID UP THERE IS NOT
DISSIMILAR AT ALL TO WHAT DONALD
TRUMP DID IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN 2016.
>> Sreenivasan: SO, HERE HE IS
NOW, AT LEAST PART ONE OF
GETTING BREXIT DONE-- MAKING THE
OFFICIAL PAPERWORK, MAILING THAT
IN-- IS OVER.
BUT REALLY, YOU'RE SAYING THAT
THE NEXT 11 MONTHS COULD BE
HARDER THAN THE LAST THREE
YEARS.
>> MUCH MORE DIFFICULT.
NEGOTIATING OVER...
RENEGOTIATING ALL OF THESE
SECTORS, WHETHER IT'S
AGRICULTURE OR AUTOMOTIVE.
I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT.
AND... AND THE WORST PART ABOUT
IT IS, THERE'S SUCH A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
NORMALLY WITH THESE COMPLEX
TRADE DEALS, THEY TAKE YEARS AND
YEARS.
>> Sreenivasan: YEAH.
>> BORIS JOHNSON HAS SAID, "11
MONTHS, AND WE'RE OUT."
>> Sreenivasan: AND WHAT ARE THE
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
ARE THEY BEING FELT YET IN THE
U.K.?
>> THEY'VE ALREADY... YOU KNOW,
IN A SENSE, HARI, THE... THE
UNITED KINGDOM IS ALREADY
POORER.
RIGHT NOW, THE POUND IS STILL
10% BELOW THE HIGHS THAT IT HAD
JUST BEFORE THE BREXIT VOTE.
SO, PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY FELT
THAT.
I WILL SAY EMPLOYMENT IS VERY
GOOD.
UNEMPLOYMENT IS VERY LOW, BUT
GROWTH IS VERY LOW.
AND THERE ARE... ECONOMISTS THAT
I TALKED TO ARE CONCERNED SINCE
THERE'S STILL SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF
TRADE DEAL THAT THEY GET HERE
THAT THEY COULD SLIP INTO
RECESSION SOMETIME LATER THIS
YEAR.
>> Sreenivasan: NPR'S LONDON
CORRESPONDENT, FRANK LANGFITT,
JOINING US VIA SKYPE TONIGHT.
THANKS SO MUCH.
>> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME, HARI.
