 
NAVIGATE: A PROSPECTION OF NIGERIA'S FUTURE TO 2030

Praise for Navigate: A Prospection Of Nigeria's Future To 2030

Exciting panorama of Nigeria's past; how we got here and "where the rain started to beat us". ... Written with patriotic zest and intellectual candor, Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria's Future to 2030 gives me joy that our youth are not sleeping after all. - Tunde Fagbenle, Author, And That's Saying It The Way It Is and Nigeria: This Is My Country, Damn It!

Olumayowa Okediran, through this book, is adhering to the well-defined aphorism of the elders that hindsight is the lens through which we view the future. By digging deep into Nigeria's political and economic past, which doesn't often make for pretty reading, Okediran tempers the science of futurism with the many peculiarities of the Nigerian state. Many questions arise from this seminal contribution: "Is there indeed a future in which the various nations within the geographic entity called Nigeria are able to coexist peacefully and advance a common economic agenda?" "Is there a future for Nigeria post-oil?" "Are the agitations of secessionist groups within the country symptomatic of economic discomfort or vestiges of colonial machinations?" Above all else, "What role will the current generation of Nigerian youth play in defining the country's future over the next decade?" The time is ticking for Nigeria to get it right.

Okediran points out, and rightly so, that Nigeria's economic progress on a continent that has not always been blessed with economic giants stands us in good stead for the future, but all that progress can be swatted away with further instability and market interference by the political class. At best, one can choose to be cautiously optimistic about Nigeria's future, but our history is replete with many false starts; we must not be naïve about what it will take to lead us forward from here. The great Maya Angelou once said: "I have great respect for the past. If you don't know where you've come from, you don't know where you're going. I have respect for the past, but I'm a person of the moment. I'm here, and I do my best to be completely centred at the place I'm at, then I go forward to the next place". Thankfully, we have Olumayowa Okediran's book to help us understand how we got to where we are and how to maximize this moment, so that we may then approach the future with clarity.

May future generations reflect on our era more with gratitude, and less with permutations of what could have been. That is now entirely up to us. - Faith Abiodun, Executive Director, Future Africa

Anyone interested in Nigeria's future, especially policy makers and indeed every stakeholder in the Nigerian reality must study Olumayowa Okediran's book, - Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria's Future to 2030. No one can safely predict the future but one can make out some of it from today's realities. Mayowa has applied his expertise and experience with some of the world's top scenario planning organizations to deliver what is certain to be one of the most realistic projections of Nigeria to 2030. The future at times often looks pretty far away but it comes soon enough, one day at a time. Nigeria, in this book, has got a peek into what could come and what can be stopped from happening even before the year 2030.

\- Japheth Omojuwa, Chief Strategist, Alpha Reach

There is no better time in the history of Nigeria to bring up the need for better foresight, scenarios analysis and forward thinking into the discourses and analyses of the multifarious problems confronting the country—plus their possible solutions—than now. Perpetually stuck in its past divisions and its ever-present identity crisis with its attendant lack of direction, Nigeria needs a critical mass of foresighted leaders and followers to break out of its current rut.

What Olumayowa has done with this book is to ignite the flame of that vital discourse, of the search for solutions that will explore the alternative future pathways for Nigeria, and will eventually zero in on the most desirable future(s) and work towards getting to such future(s). To make it accessible to a wider audience, Mayowa had rightly eschewed the most tedious parts of foresight methodologies and focused more on scenarios analyses and narratives of plausible futures, that is more readily comprehensible to the newcomer to foresight analysis. I hope those with interests in Nigerian governance can read this book—especially young and middle aged Nigerians who are already coming into their own in the political arena. \- Oluwabunmi Ajilore, Foresight Advisor, Global Forum on Agricultural Research (GFAR), Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations

One of the hallmarks of developed countries is their ability to envision a future and galvanise the various sectoral wheels of their countries to march on to that future with clarity, conviction, and discipline. Indeed, in the immediate post-independence years, we also experimented with such approaches as exemplified by the various National Development Plans. Sadly, this practice has not been sustained. Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria's Future to 2030, is, therefore, a welcome effort in redirecting Nigeria's path to structured planning and forecasting of the future it desires. Hopefully, current and future leaders will embrace the value of planning and the diligence to sustain progress for the benefit of the citizens. \- Ibrahim Sanusi, Deputy Head, Africa Governance Architecture Secretariat, African Union Commission

NAVIGATE: A PROSPECTION OF

NIGERIA'S FUTURE TO 2030

Olumayowa Okediran

Published by

The War Room Associates

Lagos, Nigeria

www.wra.com.ng

Navigate: A Prospection Of Nigeria's Future To 2030

By © Olumayowa Okediran, 2018

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this book shall be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,

or transmitted in any form by any means electronic, magnetic, otherwise, without written permission from the publishers.

ISBN:978 978 51622 7 1

Distribution by Metamorphic Books and Consulting Services.

Cover design by Wale Calfos

Dedication

For Aridunnu

Contents

Dedication vii

Foreword xi

Introduction xv

Chapter 1 -The Cautious Bliss of the Fourth Republic 1

Chapter 2 -Anticipating Our Future 23

Chapter 3 -An Economic or Social Dilemma 39

Chapter 4 -It All Hinges on Oil 51

Chapter 5 -A Country at Discomfort with Itself: Balkanization, Confederacy or Reallocation? 91

Chapter 6 -A United Political Class 109

Chapter 7 -The Highways to Our Future 125

Chapter 8 -Full Course 143

Chapter 9 -The Buffet 163

Chapter 10 -Empty Dish 179

Chapter 11 -Broken China 193

Chapter 12 -To Our Future and Beyond 203

Notes 215

Acknowledgements 237

Index 239

Foreword

I am an African bull and have little doubt that long-term trends across the African continent are firmly enough established to sustain the argument that Africa will force itself onto the global geo-strategic agenda with increasing sway. The very long-term trends on Africa's development—whether in the arenas of urbanisation, trade vs aid flows, consumer spending power, and years of education received by a young person—are all encouraging. Amongst other things Africa will in all likelihood emerge as one of the world's last untapped consumer markets, a solution to the global protein crisis, and an ever more influential terrain in the drift of the global balance of power from West to East.

What we do not know enough of is how that evolution will play itself out, where its epicentres will be, and how firms and governments should now be positioning themselves to take advantage of Africa and the opportunities it will offer.

Data sets are invariably dated, incomplete, and often quite inaccurate. The analyst community is sparse and, as a rule, uninformed, relying more on clichés and media reports than on real insight. There is a lot of stumbling around in the dark. Some of the trouble relates to Africa still being read by analysts through the lens of its past—something that will prove to be a significant strategic miscalculation.

One of the epicentres around which Africa's trajectory will pivot is Nigeria and its rivalry with South Africa as Africa's dominant economy—a rivalry that is edging in Nigeria's favour. Yet, relative to South Africa, there has been a dearth of informed Nigerian analysis entering the analyst community and almost nothing that has taken a broad multi-sectoral view on how that country's future may unfold. The challenge of doing such work on Nigeria is particularly complicated by its incredible size and diversity.

Into that environment has now emerged the very promising Nigerian analyst, Olumayowa Okediran, and his first book, Navigate: A Prospection of Nigeria's Future to 2030. It is an early attempt to put observers' feet firmly on the ground and give them an informed sense of what to expect of Nigeria over the next decade and a bit. Considering, again, the scale of the challenge, Okediran introduces the reader to a very useful series of indicators and trends that will certainly provide those not intimately briefed on the country with some of the hard data and information necessary to start developing an informed view.

But, more than analysis of the present, the brief of the book is to look to the future and to explain how political, economic, and social conditions in Nigeria will change between now and 2030.

Wisely, no attempt is made to project a single point in future space and time. The global forecasting industry has a very weak track record, especially when it comes to non-Western jurisdictions. Encouragingly, the book moves away from traditional forecasting orthodoxy and leans heavily on scenario-planning methods, given their inherent ability to embrace, rather than reject, uncertainty as an analytical tool.

In doing so, Okediran takes a bold, and very welcome step towards developing Nigeria's scenario-planning capability, and sets out four alternative futures for the country. The first is Full Course, under which a future Nigeria administration undertakes an authoritarian growth path that positions the country as Africa's dominant economic power. The second is The Buffet, under which rising living standards trigger an increasingly stable federal state and one in which civil liberties come more clearly to the fore. In the Empty Dish outcome, a repressive state persists with statist policy interventions that gradually undermine Nigeria's global competitiveness, triggering a further erosion of civil liberties. Under Broken China, ethnic tensions and secessionist pressures splinter the country into eventually autonomous regional units.

As must be the case, all four remain plausible for the country, underpinning again the uncertainty that attaches itself to how Africa's next decades will unfold. What does stand out, though, is just how spectacularly successful Nigeria might become if the correct policy mix is adopted in an enabling global economic climate. It would be a bold analyst, however, who made a hard call at this point as to where Nigeria will be in 2030, and dealing with such uncertainty is something that African strategists, and those invested in the continent, are going to become very good at dealing with. But in order to become good they need better data and analysis and better methods of building long term strategy. Mr Okediran's first book takes useful steps towards each of these objectives. Hopefully it will spawn a number of other homegrown African scenario-planning efforts and help to build the capacity of the African analyst community.

FRANS CRONJE

Introduction

Since the 1970s, individuals, governments and organizations like the Royal Dutch Shell and the American Military have implemented scenario planning within their strategic planning processes. Scenario planning, largely adapted from the American military intelligence practices helps anyone interested in the future take a peek at plausible futures. Unfortunately, Nigeria has so far played catch up.

So, what will you give to see what could happen to Nigeria by 2030? Perhaps, it can help you begin to review some of the decisions you are making today, so they may lead to your desired outcomes. One of man's challenges is that he cannot see so far ahead to let him enjoy opportunities of the future while escaping the dangers that reside therein.

Imagine that you could actually anticipate the economic recession that hit Nigeria in 2016. Most especially the downfall of the naira against other currencies. Perhaps, you would have protected your financial interests and kept your money in more stable deposits that will enable you ride the wave of the economic crisis without your financial situation worsening. Perhaps you would have delayed some of your transactions, while hastening others. To make this clearer, let us assume this is January 1965, just few years after Nigeria gained independence and a year before the country descended into a bloody ethnic war. Let us assume you, an Igbo man, were deciding whether to open a new branch of your booming company in northern Nigeria and in another eastern state. You considered numerous factors, but you clearly could not see the war coming. Because of this, situating your new branch in a new region looked very lucrative as you could claim the opportunities in a new market. Only a few months later, you began to see signs that a conflict might be brewing. However, at this time, you had already made significant investment that meant running home would amount to counting your losses.

There are many reasons we all want to see how our future unfold. Sometimes it is to pre-empt it, other times to prepare for it. Navigate ... is scenario planning action taken on the world's most populous black nation, it is an attempt at presenting a clearer view of how Nigeria's future unfolds from now till 2030.

What this book is not is a forecast. Forecast tend to assume the future as a trajectory of the present. Forecasts develop a single certain future around which a strategy must be built. There is not much early warning that the forecast may be wrong. Scenario planning instead understands that there are several possibilities of how the future may play out. Thus, scenario planners usually develop multiple plausible futures. A strategy is built around those futures. This process also reveals flags that show which future is playing out, thus helping you adjust their sails as you go.

One of the first things this book does is explain the difference between forecasts and scenario planning. Then it explains the process of creating scenarios. The process usually starts by asking ourselves what question we wish to answer. What future do we wish to see? For us, we want to know how Nigeria's state structure will look like in 2030. One of the most challenging questions people have nowadays is whether Nigeria's centre will continue to hold despite numerous threats that come in form of demands for restructuring or secession. How impactful are our socio-economic situations in the stability of our state? What trends do we need to look out for to help us decide if Nigeria is headed for a breakup or something entirely different, an anarchy? Our single most important question thus is: Will Nigeria continue to function as a single indivisible entity?

For us to be able to view Nigeria's future and answer the questions we set out to ask, we review and analyze the trends occurring in Nigeria—in the political, social and economic spheres. We dedicate a chapter to each of these trends. From these, we highlighted some of the most uncertain and highly impactful drivers of Nigeria's future. Then, we use these to develop our scenarios. Navigate presents four plausible futures that Nigerians would have encountered by 2030.

OLUMAYOWA OKEDIRAN

Springdale, Maryland

May, 2018

Chapter One

The Cautious Bliss Of The Fourth Republic

Everything created by God has its destiny, and it is the destiny of all of us to see this day. Twelve months ago, no-one could have predicted the series of stunning events that made it possible for democratic elections to be held at the local government level, the state level, and culminating in the National Assembly elections. Thereafter, you the good people of Nigeria elected me, a man who had walked through the valley of the shadow of death, as your president to head the democratic civilian administration. I believe that this is what God Almighty has ordained for me and for my beloved country, Nigeria, and its people.

-Olusegun Obasanjo, Inauguration Speech 1999.1

On May 29, 1999, when Olusegun Obasanjo delivered his inauguration speech to the thunderous applause of Nigerians and guests from other parts of the world seated at the Eagles Square, Nigeria was at the threshold of another beginning. The retired general and one time military head-of-state of the country could not have envisaged that he would be alive at that period to run for presidency, let alone become Nigeria's first president of the Fourth Republic.

Nigerians had anticipated and fought for the return of democracy, but General Sani Abacha's firm grip on power, his youthfulness and brutal reprisal on any person who sought to disrupt his government, repeatedly doused the hope of Nigerians. In April 1998, when Abacha made a supposed attempt at returning the country to civilian rule, he was the only nominated candidate for the presidency. However, a quick turn of events that started with the death of Abacha hastened a future that had hitherto looked far-fetched. A seemingly endless democratic process began to take shape under General Abdulsalami Abubakar who succeeded the dead dictator, Sani Abacha on June 9, 1998.

Only a few months before the 1999 presidential elections, Obasanjo was one of the many political prisoners held by Sani Abacha. Along with his friend, Rt. Major General Shehu Musa Yar'adua, Obasanjo had been accused by Abacha's government of attempting to overthrow the sitting government. He had been sentenced to life imprisonment.2 Shehu Musa Yar'adua did not make it out of prison alive. On June 17, 1998, Obasanjo along with nine other political prisoners were released by General Abubakar as the country marched towards democracy and sought to appease the international community. Others include democratic leader, Beko Ransome-Kuti, former governor, Bola Ige, trade unionists, Frank Kokori and Milton Dabibi, and journalist, Christine Anyanwu.3 Nigeria's most prominent political vanguard, Moshood Abiola was, however, left out of the list.4 He later died in detention on July 8, 1998.5

The death of Sani Abacha marked the turning point for Nigeria, both locally and in the international community. Nigeria had a Robert Mugabe in Sani Abacha, perhaps worse. First, Sani Abacha disrupted Nigeria's return to civilian rule when he overthrew Ernest Shonekan, the President of the Interim National Government of Nigeria that was meant to oversee Nigeria's return to democracy; and then he promised to return Nigeria to democratic rule. Second, he suspended the constitution and dismantled all elected institutions; he dismissed all state and national assemblies and placed an embargo on political activities and even restricted press freedom. By 1998, he had succeeded in getting Nigeria banned from the Commonwealth and isolated from the international community. He went as far as getting the country sanctioned by football federations, Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) and Confederation of African Football (CAF).6

Abacha remains the most cruel dictator Nigeria has ever had and he oversaw the most brutal regime Nigerians have ever experienced. Born and bred in Kano, Abacha attended the Mons Defence Officers Cadet Training College in Aldershot, England. He was subsequently commissioned second lieutenant in 1963 and became an active driver in the military's disruption of power since 1966. When he ultimately became a military general, Abacha was the first head of state who did not skip a rank on his way to becoming a full star general.7

Abacha's regime witnessed several high profile deaths and political persecutions.8 These include the assassination of Kudirat Abiola, hanging of Ken Saro Wiwa and several other Ogoni chiefs and the suspicious death of Shehu Musa Yar'adua while in confinement. Abacha also executed or imprisoned several people who were convicted of trying to overthrow his government. Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka had to flee the country when accused of treason by the dictator.

Without Abacha's death, Nigeria's exit from autocratic rule would have been later rather than sooner. Perhaps, he would have stayed for as long as he wanted. Unwilling to relinquish power, when Abacha decided to conduct elections, he was the only candidate to emerge after being nominated by four political parties. This would have become the fashion every election year, as he would have continued to hold on to power for as long as his life permitted him. At 54, he certainly did seem to have a lot of life in him.

The 1999 elections marked another attempt by Nigeria at democratic governance. The country was on the verge of accomplishing a feat that she had struggled to attain for the previous 15 years of military rule. So far, the Fourth Republic has enjoyed more success than previous democratic eras as Nigeria approaches its sixth consecutive general elections for the first time since independence.

Obasanjo's emergence as a democratically elected president represented the end of the military forces' tinkering with Nigeria's foremost political office. The army had had no problem ousting governments and many of the speeches given by past military heads-of-state tended to suggest that successful coup planners had only swung in because the country was in desperate need of a savior, without whom it would have fallen into unimaginable ruin.9

Thus, the present democratic progress in Nigeria cannot be taken for granted. The military had hitherto ridiculed civilians to the point of conducting elections and then annulling it before the country's electoral bodies (now known as the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC) could announce the results.

One of the most memorable elections in Nigeria's history was held in 1993. Prior to the elections, General Ibrahim Babangida, the sitting head-of-state, had approved the formation of two political parties—National Republican Convention (NRC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1989. Nigerians may have suspected that Babangida was unwilling to hand over power to a civilian government when all primaries held at local levels were cancelled in the name of widespread irregularities.10 When the primary elections finally resumed, Moshood Abiola emerged the presidential candidate for SDP while Bashir Tofa led the NRC to the presidential polls. On June 12, 1993, the presidential elections took place to the elation of Nigerians who had begun to give up hope on the military's promise of a return to democratic rule. However, to the dismay of Nigerians, Babangida annulled the elections before the results were announced. Widespread protests ensued afterwards. These protests included actions by Campaign for Democracy (CD) which contained several civil rights groups, motions moved by country senators, and sanctions by foreign countries. All amounted to nothing. By August 1993, the government had begun to clamp down on activists around the country.11 General Babangida became famously known as "Maradona" for dummying the Nigerian masses on several occasions.

General Babangida had only carried on a trend that was characteristic of all past military governments in Nigeria. All of them promised to return Nigeria to democratic rule. Only General Olusegun Obasanjo and General Abdulsalami Abubakar fulfilled that promise. Shehu Shagari emerged as president from the presidential elections conducted during General Olusegun Obasanjo's military regime while Obasanjo returned to power in civilian garb when General Abubakar fulfilled his democracy promise in 1999. Nigeria has since remained under civilian rule.

Since 1999, Nigerians have enjoyed a certain political stability that had been uncharacteristic of the country before then. This provides us with several reasons to celebrate our development as a democratic institution. It also reinforces in our minds, however subtly, the belief that we can achieve some of the many goals that we have as a country. Going by the agonies of political wars, minimal military tyranny, religious and ethnic crisis which Nigeria, a continuously volatile country of disparate cultures and communities, has suffered in the Fourth Republic, we can say the country is making remarkable progress.

But as we approach the 2019 elections, which would be taking place exactly two decades into the Fourth Republic, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the country. Rebel groups have risen and resorted to mass killing and kidnapping; a new secessionist group is gaining international recognition, poverty levels continue to rise, youth employment percentages plummets, inflation rates hit its highest in over a decade and the country is struggling to exit a crippling economic recession. The political stability the country has enjoyed since 1999 is now under threat. Power plays build up in the Nigerian Senate and different ethnic groups are calling for a restructuring of the country as the only viable way to move forward. This and many more has led to the question: what does the future hold for Nigeria?

Understanding the direction the country is headed could help us better prepare for the future, circumvent any potential tragic incidents and take advantage of possible positive developments. How may we do this?

Studying the trajectory of incidents that predate and dominate Nigeria's current political and socioeconomic society helps us uncover vital trends. The trends, when analyzed, can provide the necessary insights to give us a clearer view of the future. This book envisages what may happen to our country in the coming years. For us to be able to extend our sight into Nigeria's future, we need to take a careful look at how we got to this point, examine the realities that we currently face and what decisions they might stimulate.

The events that have occurred in Nigeria since the country's re-attainment of democracy in 1999 are herein closely scrutinized. Some of the incidents that influenced or set unique precedents for activities in the Fourth Republic are also examined. We need to find the balance between our progress and our challenges and discuss in detail what they meant for us in the past, and what they signify for our future.

There are several ways we can measure Nigeria's progress. Even though political, economic and social progress serves as valuable yardsticks for measurement, they only provide a general outlook. Nigeria is faced with its own peculiar indicators and this is put into consideration in this book.

We have experienced remarkable progress as a democratic government since 1999. Events that occurred before 1999 help us better appreciate the bliss we enjoy now. Nigeria's growth as a democratic country over the past two decades instills citizens with so much hope that memories of political interruptions by the military are fast fading away. In 2019, some voters will go to the polls without having experienced any of the cruel years of military rule. As Nigeria approached that threshold in 1999, political leaders and statesmen realized that the country was approaching a very critical point in its history; one which, if managed poorly, would have sunk the country into irresolvable chaos.

In 1998, despite the government's plan to return Nigeria to civilian rule and General Abdulsalami Abubakar's commitment to doing so, political tensions began to rise towards the elections. As the return of democracy loomed, it also began to brew a serious crisis that could destroy the unity and leadership of the country. First was the sudden death of M. K. O. Abiola. The riots that took place in Southwestern Nigeria following Abiola's death claimed more than 100 lives.12 While the country made rapid progress towards May 1999, the Ogonis and many other ethnic minorities continued to press for equity; the Westerners rioted, and the Northerners intensified efforts to maintain their hold on political power. Above all, Nigeria went into the general elections without a constitution.

Olusegun Obasanjo's rise to become the presidential candidate of the People's Democratic Party was heavily backed by former Head-of-State, Ibrahim Babangida. Perhaps it was an attempt to appease the Westerners for the annulment of the 1993 election which he later admitted was 'unfortunate'.13 Babanginda's choice of Obasanjo was not without meditation. According to him, he saw Olusegun Obasanjo as that person who could lead the country through the disturbing deserts of transition. In an interview with Liberty FM, Babangida said that the country needed a person who was already familiar with governing the country and who was patriotic enough to keep the country together.14 According to him, Obasanjo embodied the true Nigerian.

The Ogun State born retired General was not known to articulate his allegiance with the Yoruba ethnic group. This was further reflected in the elections, when Obasanjo lost in all southwestern states.15 Obasanjo had previously opposed Moshood Abiola's presidential aspirations, which alienated him from the political statesmen of the Yoruba ethnic group. In addition, the South-Westerners felt Obasanjo was a stooge for the northern agenda. In 1976, Obasanjo had proceeded to hand over power to a northern civilian president, after deciding not to pursue personal or ethnic interests of retaining power by succeeding the late Murtala Muhammad, another northern ruler of the country. However, Obasanjo's southern origin played perhaps the most significant role in his choice as the presidential candidate for People's Democratic Party (PDP). Olu Falae, the flag bearer for the opposition party, Alliance for Democracy (AD), was also a southerner. The third candidate, Ogbonnaya Onu of All People's Party (another southerner) was later dropped as APP and AD eventually pursued a joint ticket for presidency.

The overwhelming support for a president of southern descent originated from a multitude of reasons. The country's unity was dangerously threatened. While Nigerians (particularly southerners) had not forgotten the annulment of the 1993 elections by a northerner, the 1999 presidential election was also coming immediately after Abiola's death at a time when he was set to be released as a political prisoner. Making matters worse was the prevalent belief that government was responsible for the death of Abiola. All indicators pointed at an agenda to keep power in the North.

Northerners had dominated military rule and events that played out during those periods ensured that people were hostile to another northern leadership. Northerners were in a moral dilemma to once again field candidates for presidency. Notwithstanding, the northerners still ensured both vice presidents to the presidential flag bearers were from their region.

Thus, prior to the elections, one of General Abubakar's mandates—and that of the new president—was to unite the various conflicting ethnic groups. The government was also saddled with the responsibility of building the trust of the people in the transition process due to precedents of failed transitions. INEC's first significant step at preventing the rise of ethnocentric political parties was to mandate political parties to have a presence in at least 24 states. In addition, political parties that would qualify to field a presidential candidate must win at least 5 per cent of the votes during local government elections in at least 24 states. Out of the nine registered political parties, only PDP, AD and APP qualified. AD and APP then formed an alliance to field a single candidate for the presidential polls.16

After the conclusion of voting exercise on February 27, 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) won the election with 18 million votes while Chief Olu Falae of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), All Peoples Party (APP) (AD-APP) coalition polled 11 million votes. Obasanjo had polled the majority votes in 27 states out of the 36 states in the country.17

Nigeria continues on its longest and most stable democratic dispensation since independence. Admirably, the armed forces have stayed within the boundaries of their responsibilities and have so far left the constitution of the country to prevail as far as governing the country is concerned. We have witnessed the emergence of presidents from at least three geopolitical zones in only five elections. Olusegun Obasanjo was from the South-West, Umaru Yar'adua and Muhammadu Buhari from the North-West and Goodluck Jonathan from the South-South. Perhaps the most significant victory for Nigeria was Goodluck Jonathan's victory at the presidential polls. It showed promise in the possibility of ethnic minorities holding key political offices in Nigeria.

Nigeria's democracy has grown stronger over the past two decades. Although it has seen two previous military rulers return as civilian presidents, each election shows that if the nation continues in this trajectory, we would build a formidable democratic government. In sixteen years, the military has not made any major attempt to unseat the government. Nigerians are able to decide who leads them at elections. The 2015 presidential elections was the first time an opposition party unseated a sitting government. It was also the first presidential election result that was not contested by at least one of the losing candidates. In 1999, Olu Falae contested Obasanjo's victory at the polls. Buhari contested all the electoral victories of PDP candidates since 2003. Goodluck Jonathan, at the announcement of the 2015 presidential election results, called Buhari to concede defeat and congratulated the retired general on his victory at the polls. That act received widespread international acclaim.18

Asides from our political stability, there have been other big wins for Nigeria.

In 2015, Nigeria completed the rebasing exercise of its economy, which reflected the contribution of other sectors of the economy to the GDP more accurately. The rebased economy helped Nigeria climb to the summit of Africa's economic ladder and the country was proclaimed the largest economy in Africa, ahead of South Africa and Egypt.19 The rebasing exercise also helped shed light on our progress in developing other non-oil sectors of the economy.

Nigeria has institutionalized its fight against corruption through the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Commission (ICPC). Although there are still questions on the effectiveness of these agencies, the two represent a general approach by the government to curb corruption in the country. In addition to this, the whistle-blower policy and whistle-blower protection policy were both implemented so as to enable citizens uncover acts of corruption around them.

Another big win for the government was seen in how it clawed its way out of recession. It is easy to blame the government for the sudden crash of the economy, but Nigeria has always maintained a highly volatile and highly susceptible economy. Nigeria's recession was fuelled by the drop in crude oil prices. Our dependence on petroleum imports ensures we suffer as a result of such price drops, especially in the sales of crude oil and procurement of crude oil products. Although there are four public refineries in Nigeria—Port Harcourt (2), Warri (1) and Kaduna (1)—none of them is working at full capacity. The refineries, when functional, are able to refine a combined 445,000 barrels of crude oil per day, which would have gone a long way to attend to local demands.20 According to ThisDay, a Nigerian newspaper, Nigeria spends 28 billion dollars annually on fuel importation.21 The prolonged importation of crude oil places pressure on Nigeria's currency as too much Forex is used in purchasing refined crude oil. This pressure was instrumental in the shrinking of Nigeria's economy for three consecutive quarters which eventually led to the beginning of the recession.

The recession dealt heavily with Nigerian businesses and caused several foreign investors to divest. Etisalat, one of the largest telecommunications network in Nigeria with 21 million subscribers commenced operations in Nigeria in 2008. Nine years after, due to the recession and subsequently the company's inability to redeem the 1.2 billion dollars loan it acquired from several Nigerian banks, the Arab investors exited the country.22 The value of the naira depreciated from 198 Naira/USD to 321 Naira/USD in just two years.23 Several businesses went moribund due to the financial crisis. The crisis led to massive retrenchments of workers.

Ominously, eighteen years into the Fourth Republic, our harmony as a nation comes under a lot of significant threats. Our cohesion (or its facade) as an indivisible country continues to wear under intense pressure. We have been threatened by significant political, economic and social tensions. How we have managed to stay together till this point remains a political miracle.

Two major problems are responsible for the dislodgment of Nigeria from the progress path she started out on as a nation upon independence: tribalism and corruption.

Let us examine Nigeria's long battle with tribalism. The Vanguard reports that Nigeria has 371 different tribes.24 This makes Nigeria one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world. While many countries battle differing racial identities, ethnic relations among the myriad tribes in Nigeria remain a significant subject of concern. Nigeria is defined by the unity or disunity of its constituent ethnic groups, including the "magnificent trio" of Hausa/Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba.

Ethnicity, as I would continue to highlight in subsequent discussions in the book, rests on the borderline of Nigeria's political, social and economic discourse. Its influence on the country's policies cannot be overemphasized. Till date, Nigerians struggle to find a balance between ethnic and national consciousness. A report by Washington Post paints a gloomy picture. According to the report, ethnic diversity in a country correlates with conflict, low GDP per capita and weak democracy. However, the article noted that correlation should not be confused with causation.25

What brought these disparate ethnic groups together in the first place? This is a convenient point to discuss Nigeria's amalgamation. Nigeria's journey to statehood started when the British government managed to unite all Northern ethnic groups into the Northern Protectorate and made Lord Lugard its first high commissioner. In 1906, the Colony of Lagos was united with the rest of Southern Nigeria to become the Colony and Protectorate of Southern Nigeria. Then on January 1, 1914, Lugard completed the amalgamation of the two protectorates into one administrative unit. All these were efforts of the British government to coalesce its administrative efforts in the Niger Area. The colonists had overlooked the differing cultures and identities of the people they governed and this oversight continues to create cracks in the string that holds together the world's most populous black nation.

Europeans, who constituted majority of the colonial forces that dominated Africa and the rest of the world, are largely homogenous. This background may have formed the assumptions on which they founded the political structures implemented in their colonial territories. Mali, Niger, Sudan, Chad, Rwanda, and Burundi are only some of the countries that have suffered brutally from conflicts arising from the disrespect of the lines that run across African ethnic groups when Europeans jumbled them together into single nations.26 Wars in these regions have claimed millions of lives and displaced tens of millions more.27 Some of these include the Tuareg rebellion,28 South Sudanese Civil War,29 Burundian Civil War,30 Rwandan Genocide,31 and Congo Wars.32 Nigeria also lost about 1 million people to the Nigerian Civil War when the Igbos sought to become an independent state.33

Founding fathers of Nigeria, political activists, political commentators as well as researchers have expressed worries over the potential problems of such ethnic mergers and the 1914 move that conjoined one of the most ethnically diverse people in the world still raises lots of questions. According to several political commentators such as Tunde Fagbenle, "Nigeria is a jumbled forced grouping of disparate peoples with widely differing developmental visions, life views, social inclinations and moral values."34

In Obafemi Awolowo's book, Path to Nigerian Freedom, he wrote:

Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical expression. There are no 'Nigerians' in the same sense as there are 'English,' 'Welsh,' or 'French.' The word 'Nigerian' is merely a distinctive appellation to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who do not.35

First indigenous governor general of Nigeria, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, was reported to have commented that he supported the views of Justice Salmon Portland Chase, former Chief Justice of the United States, that most nations grow out of common origin, mutual sympathies, kindred principles, similar interest and geo-political relations, and of these factors, only geo-political relations apply to Nigeria.36

Tafawa Balewa, Nigeria's first prime minister, said at the Legislative Council in 1948:

Since 1914 the British Government has been trying to make Nigeria into one country, but the Nigerian people themselves are historically different in their backgrounds, in their religious beliefs and customs and do not show themselves any sign of willingness to unite... Nigerian unity is only a British intention for the country."37

Nigerian leaders may claim to forge a united government, yet the division of Nigeria into three regions was as a result of the difficulties of managing these diverse groups of people under a single government. Nigeria was partitioned into the Eastern, Northern and Western Regions, which was a representation of the apparent divide in the country. When military leaders took the steps of breaking the regions into states, it was in order to put an end to the rising forces of ethnicity, which was fuelling a rebellion against the united government. INEC's move to deregionalize political parties in 1999 was another attempt to patch the cracks that threatened Nigeria's unity.38

The creation of states and other constitutional approaches like the federal character principle are some of the tools that have been used by the government to strengthen the relationships among the ethnic groups, develop a sense of patriotism among citizens, quench secessionist agendas, and build a formidable country unit. This has so far been successful as Nigeria celebrated the centenary of its amalgamation in January 2014 and has remained an indivisible political unit for more than 60 years. Notwithstanding, Nigeria's unity has been under sustained threat, and one wonders if and for how long the union will last. Thus, the delicateness of ethnicity means Nigeria's nationhood is constantly under threat.

Apart from tribalism, corruption is another concern that has continued to disrupt Nigeria's fortunes and represents one of the reasons the country has struggled to achieve stability. The rise of these two cankerworms in modern Nigeria has now placed a noticeable strain on the bliss Nigeria currently enjoys as a progressive nation. How disastrous can these be for a nation?

We examine two pre-1999 periods that witnessed the disruption of civilian governments and how ethnicity and corruption at different points in time were enough reasons for the military forces to overthrow the sitting governments.

In the early hours of January 15, 1966, a young Igbo soldier lodged bullets in the body of the Northern Premier and Sardauna of Sokoto, Ahmadu Bello. His name was Major Patrick Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu. At that time, he was the chief instructor of Nigerian Military Training College in Kaduna. He, along with several soldiers had stormed the residence of the Northern Region Premier to kickstart what would be the first coup d'état in Nigeria.

At the same time, similar attacks were carried out in Lagos and Ibadan. By the end of the coup, the Prime Minister, Tafawa Balewa, Premier of Northern Nigeria, Ahmadu Bello, Premier of Western Nigeria, Samuel Ladoke Akintola, a Federal Minister, Chief Festus Okotie-Eboh and a number of top army officers had been brutally executed.

The coup, spearheaded by Emmanuel Ifeajuna and Kaduna Nzeogwu, was carried out by mostly soldiers of Igbo descent. Incidentally, the Igbo president of the country, Nnamdi Azikiwe, the Premier of the Eastern Region, Dr Mike Okpara and the Igbo Army Chief, Aguiyi Ironsi were spared.39

Why did the soldiers strike? Upon independence, Nigeria adopted the Westminster style of parliamentary government. During this process, the Northern Region had significantly more seats than all the other regions. The Ahmadu Bello led Northern People's Congress claimed 134 seats out of the 312 seats in the Parliament. Obafemi Awolowo led Action Group (AG) got 73 seats while Nnamdi Azikiwe led National Council of Nigeria and Cameroon (NCNC) elected 89 members.40

This meant no decision could be made at the house without the endorsement of the northerners. Even if a constitutional amendment had been mooted, it would still have required the acceptance of the northerners. Violence became the alternative option for the southerners to loosen the control of the northerners. The future of Nigeria had become uncertain as it became obvious that one or two of the partners of the northern-southern Nigeria union may eternally be unsatisfied. Even worse, the political and regional divide among the three major ethnic groups pit them against one another. The Westerners and the Easterners became friends of circumstance. Both could neither independently nor collectively rule the country without the permission of the Northerners.

In the west, Obafemi Awolowo was incarcerated by the federal government and Samuel Akintola, whose party, Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), was a close ally of the leadership of the Northern People's Congress (NPC), was installed as the Western Premier. During this period, the west degenerated into mindless conflict. All these represented a shaky start to Nigeria's political journey. Mainly because of tribalism, the military ended Nigeria's first breath of democracy.

Although the soldiers denounced that the coup had ethnic connotations, the events that ensued afterwards proved differently. On July 29, 1966, soldiers of mostly northern descent launched a counter coup. It was led by Lt. Colonel Murtala Muhammad.

Ruth First described the incidence in her book, The Barrel of a Gun: The Politics of Coups d'Etat in Africa: "Within three days of the July outbreak, every Igbo soldier serving in the army outside the East was dead, imprisoned or fleeing eastward for his life."41

It was acknowledged as the bloodiest coup in Nigeria. Yet, what was to come represented the darkest patch in Nigeria's history. The Nigerian Civil War was the grand finale of the series of ethnic conflicts that rocked Nigeria in its first decade as an independent country. Over one million people lost their lives.

These events help us paint a clearer picture of the dangers that an ethnically volatile country is exposed to. It also assists us to better comprehend the dangers Nigeria might face with its current handling of the secession calls of the Igbos, amidst other less vocal groups.

In the second stint of Nigerian democracy, the second evil, corruption, revealed just how damaging it could be. In 1979, Obasanjo fulfilled his promise of returning Nigeria to civilian rule when he handed over power to Shehu Shagari who had won at the presidential polls. A new constitution had instituted the beginning of the Second Republic in 1978 and lifted the ban on political activities. The constitution also changed our system of government from the Westminster parliamentary government to the American presidential system.42

While ethnic problems still resurfaced at the birth of the Second Republic, the major problems of the Second Republic began with the oil boom. The price of oil skyrocketed from 3 dollars to 12 dollars per barrel due to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, which multiplied Nigeria's revenue.43 Rather than use these monies solely for extensive national development, public money began to find its way into private pockets. There was widespread corruption in the public and private sector. Between 1979 and 1983, there was massive capital flight estimated at 14 billion US Dollars.44 Public office holders siphoned money through inflated contracts, importation licenses, inflated salaries and allowances, reckless government funded travels as well as shady deals with London based Johnson Matthey Bankers (JMB) which specialized in the smuggling of massive sums out of Nigeria under the guise of bogus imports.45

By 1981, when oil prices dropped, the country suffered an economic recession. Nigeria's foreign debt rose to ₦14.7 billion in 1982 from ₦3.3 billion in 1978. By 1983, the nineteen (19) state governments had run up a combined debt of ₦13.3 billion. Yet, government spending continued to accelerate.46

When Shehu Shagari won his re-election at the polls in 1983, it was pervaded by widespread rigging and electoral fraud. Unsurprisingly, Shagari's government was cut short by a military coup which brought General Muhammadu Buhari into power. Buhari gave widespread corruption and mismanagement of funds as some of the reasons the previous government had to be toppled.

In his inauguration speech, Major General Muhammadu Buhari stated:

While corruption and indiscipline have been associated with our state of under-development, these two evils in our body politic have attained unprecedented height in the past few years. The corrupt, inept and insensitive leadership in the last four years has been the source of immorality and impropriety in our society. Since what happens in any society is largely a reflection of the leadership of that society, we deplore corruption in all its facets. This government will not tolerate kick-backs, inflation of contracts and over-invoicing of imports etc. Nor will it condone forgery, fraud, embezzlement, misuse and abuse of office and illegal dealings in foreign exchange and smuggling.47

The two evils that cut short Nigeria's first two experiences of civilian government now rear their ugly heads in the Fourth Republic. We should note that the army did not see anything wrong in ousting governments. Many of the speeches given by newly installed military heads-of-state tend to reiterate that successful coup planners had only swung in because the country was in desperate need of a savior and would have fallen into unimaginable ruins. Tribalism and Corruption were two reasons why the military toppled the democratic governments in 1966 and 1983 respectively.

The widespread corruption and ethnic tensions being experienced in Nigeria today leave one to question the sustainability of our nationhood and democracy. How long before some infuriated group of people take to the streets, hatch a government toppling plan and push the country into chaos?

Worryingly, corruption and tribalism are only two of the many problems beleaguering the country. The government's handling of insurgency has been less than desirable. Thrice, the government has put the country on the brink of war and total collapse as a result of the way it handled groups that rebelled against its existence.

The first of these was in the Niger-Delta. We should recall how Nigeria got the international community infuriated and got suspended from the Commonwealth when Sani Abacha executed Ken Saro-Wiwa and other Ogoni chiefs who protested the deplorable conditions in which oil companies had left their communities. Tension had begun to rise again in the local oil communities in the Niger Delta. Local militia groups started to sabotage the exploration of oil in the area. On November 20, 1999, the government empowered the military force to sack a whole community, Odi, in the Niger Delta. The army razed every building in the community to the ground and killed both civilians and members of the local militia in the community of over 2,000 people.48 This massacre came only six months after the inauguration of Olusegun Obasanjo as the first civilian president of the Fourth Republic.

It was not until 2013 that a Federal High Court returned justice to the community when it ordered that the government should pay the people of Odi a compensation of ₦37.6 billion. Justice Akin Lambi had described the massacre as a "brazen violation of the fundamental human rights of the victims".49

Prior to that judgment, militancy had become widespread in the Niger-Delta. There were several high profile kidnappings of expatriates and relatives of notable personalities. The militants had repeatedly exchanged gunfire with members of the police force and the Nigerian Army, which resulted in several deaths. One of the groups, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), also claimed responsibility for several bombings, including oil pipelines, the government house, as well as the October 2010 Abuja car bombings. Nigeria was gradually caving in to the pressure from the militant action in that region. For a country whose revenue was largely dependent on the oil, its fortunes were quickly dwindling. Apart from the economic threat that the activities of the militants posed, the militants' attacks on the public meant they were also a significant security threat; one that, if not curtailed, could spark a full blown regional conflict.

The Amnesty Programme introduced by the government of late Umar Musa Yar'adua, former president of Nigeria, was designed to help curtail militancy in the Niger Delta. This program significantly curbed the activities of the militants. Five years after the Amnesty Programme for Niger Delta ex-militants was instituted in 2009, the government had spent 243 billion naira on the programme. The Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta Affairs in 2014, Mr. Kingsley Kuku, defended the amount spent and stated that the government was making about 14 billion naira per day from the region.50 In 2017, the government budgeted 65 billion naira51 for the program and later added another 35 billion naira.52

Jamā'atu Ahli is-Sunnah lid-Da'wati wal-Jihād, better known as Boko Haram, took the limelight off MEND. This started with the extrajudicial killing of the leader of the Islamic group in North-Eastern Nigeria. The police summarily executed Mohammad Yusuf while he was in their custody. The group had proclaimed war against Western education, corruption and the concentration of wealth in small circles of political elites. While the group had conducted its affairs privately since it was founded in 2002, the arrest of Muhammad Yusuf brought them into limelight.

After Yusuf was eventually killed, Abubakar Shekau assumed the leadership position of the group, restructuring the group into a more lethal organization. Reprisal attacks on the government led to a full-scale conflict that has now displaced over two million people and led to the death of over 20,000 people. The terrorist group, acclaimed in 2015 as the deadliest in the world,53 carried out several suicide bombings that included attacks on police headquarters, the army barracks, churches, mosques, markets and the UN headquarters in Abuja. In addition to the bombings, the group kidnapped 276 girls from a local secondary school in Chibok and kept them in custody for two years. Although the Nigerian army made some progress in curtailing the terrorist group, there are no indications that the group has been wiped out. Boko Haram still carries out attacks of varying degrees in some parts of North Eastern Nigeria. On July 27, 2017, 48 people, including five university staff, were brutally murdered by the deadly group in an ambush.54

While Nigerians are yet to heal from the catastrophes caused by Boko Haram, the Nigerian government is mishandling another potential cause of unrest in the country. A certain Nnamdi Kanu surfaced as the leader of an emerging secessionist group known as Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and started heating up the polity while garnering approval of different Igbo groups. At the World Igbo Day in Los Angeles in October 2015, Nnamdi Kanu had called on fellow Igbos:

You must come out to support what we are doing. We need guns, and we need bullets... To kill somebody is very difficult for us, so to ask a gathering of Igbo people that we need guns and bullets, and weapons would be very very difficult to address, but without it, Hausa people will barrage us.55

The government ordered the arrest of Nnamdi Kanu on 14 October 2015. Kanu was kept in detention until April 2017 when he was released on bail. Before his release, members of the organization, loyalists of the Biafran movement, as well as sympathizers joined in protests across the federation demanding the release of Kanu. Tens of thousands of people flooded the streets carrying placards proclaiming their loyalties to Kanu, his movement and demanded the secession of Biafra from Nigeria. This singular act of arrest by the government generated public support for Nnamdi Kanu such that he soon began to wield heavy political influence in South Eastern Nigeria upon his eventual release from jail.

The indicators that led to the Nigerian Civil War in 1967 which resulted in the death of over a million citizens are becoming rife. Some of these include the perceived marginalization of Igbos in top government positions56 and infrastructural development.57 Till date, Igbos have found it difficult to produce a president or vice president, yet power has returned to the north twice. On June 6, 2017, we were reminded of the Igbo-targeted pogroms of 1966 as northern youths gave the Igbos a three month notice to quit Northern Nigeria.58

Leaders of the Igbo community continue to warn the government to take action and protect its people. However, some secessionist groups have instead gone ahead to launch campaigns towards the secession of Biafra from Nigeria. Some of these campaigns translated into organized protests. Sadly, the Nigerian Army, at the behest of the government, has resorted to handling such protests with violence by shooting and killing pro-Biafra protesters during such marches. Amnesty International reports that security forces have killed at least 150 people since the start of the secessionist campaigns in 2015.59

In addition to the vocal Igbo demands for secession, there have been calls from different parts of the country for its restructuring.60 Several statesmen are coming to the conclusion that the current structure of the country needs to be reexamined for any progress to be made. Some Igbo leaders, such as leaders of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo group, have expressed their preference for restructuring too, rather than secession. Yet, a pan-Yoruba group, Oodua Nationalist Coalition, ONAC has called on Yoruba people to prepare for the creation of Oduduwa Republic, should the country break up.61

These are only some of the threats to Nigeria's unity and existence as a whole. It is difficult to trivialize any of these events and their potential to lead to the disintegration of Nigeria. Corruption is even more widespread. Although the Buhari administration has yet to resolve any major corruption case, we have been hinted on the height of corruption that currently pervades the Nigerian government and other political circles. According to Oby Ezekwesili, a former Nigerian minister of education and vice president of the World Bank's Africa division, Nigeria has lost 400 billion dollars to corruption in the oil sector alone since independence. In 2015, about 32 billion dollars was lost to misappropriation of funds by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).62

Millions in foreign currencies have been found stashed away in apartments and underground vaults.63 Despite the implementation of the Bank Verification Number (BVN), public office holders continue to find new ways to siphon government funds. You only begin to understand properly the impact of corruption in Nigeria when you realize that about 112 million out of an estimated 167 million Nigerians live below poverty level.64 Youth unemployment also hit 42 per cent in May 2016.65 We do not need any soothsayer to tell us that a country where there is such level of poverty is sitting on a time bomb. A hungry man is a loaded gun.

Citizens and investors have low confidence in the government. This is reflected in the negative migration rate recorded by the country. Nigeria's migration rate has doubled from -0.16 migrants per thousand population in 2000 to -0.35 migrants per thousand population in 2015.66 The deplorable state of the health, education and justice systems, increased cost of living, tribalism and nepotism, poor infrastructural development, unequal distribution of wealth, lack of transparency in government, non-payment of salaries and inflation are some of the challenges facing Nigeria. In addition, Nigeria has suffered a steady decline in GDP growth over the past 10 years, bar 2016 when it began to pick up again. The economy eventually slumped into recession as the GDP annual growth rate shrank from 8 per cent in 2010 to 2.34 per cent in 2016. According to finance minister, Kemi Adeosun, our non-oil revenue is unacceptably low at 2.98 trillion naira67 while the oil revenue has dropped significantly due to fallen oil price (from 110 dollars per barrel to below 50 dollars per barrel)68 and pipeline vandalization by Niger-Delta militants.

With the future of the country increasingly uncertain due to the aggravated issues, there is no better time to attempt to portend the future. Will the country be able to withstand the increasing internal pressure—seeking both restructuring and secession—or the external pressure of the changing markets? How has Nigeria handled the same situations in the past and what decisions did the government make? Where did these decisions lead?

Nigerians had reasons to celebrate the victory of the APC in 2015. The election and the victory of the opposition party helped people realize they have the power to change their government and successfully oust ineffective political parties from government. After the elections in 2015, Aisha Musa, a housewife in Kano told The Economist: "If things are not better with Buhari, we will get rid of him in four years' time."69

This is an important step for our democracy. It has built the confidence of the citizens in the power they hold in determining the fortunes of the country.

We are approaching that point again where the yearning for a new political and economic direction heightens. We have experienced steep inflation rates since the start of the current government. Nigeria recorded a record high 16.1 per cent inflation rate, the highest in about 10 years and food prices have continued to surge. Cost pressures, unavailability of Forex and scarcity of important commodities contribute to this inflation spiral.70 Other significant factors include the rising fuel prices, depreciation of the naira, erratic power supply and food scarcity. Amidst all these, the corruption cankerworm continues to eat deep into the fabric of the nation.

This book examines some of these issues and it has been realized that citizens are again in search of new directions for the country. Will APC be able to hold on to power come 2019? What will that mean for Nigeria? Will PDP return to power as the only significant opposition to the current government or will Nigerians support a relatively new party led by a new leader? How free and fair are Nigeria's elections to allow a displacement of the two prominent political parties? Will Kanu's secessionist campaign get any remote success? Will the government yield to calls for restructuring? How will restructuring Nigeria affect the fortunes of the country?

Nigeria finds itself at a fragile point where the polity is filled with a lot of uncertainties. Thus, this presents us an opportunity to examine what may eventually become of the country in a few years' time. In this book, I will use scenario analysis to postulate the paths the country may eventually take.

In chapter two, the book discusses scenario planning in detail. I will expatiate on why I have chosen this method to help clarify some of the uncertainties about Nigeria's future. With scenario planning, we can take a long shot at the paths the country may eventually take in the coming years. It is difficult to predict accurately a singular direction that the country will take. There are just too many possibilities to allow for such convenient assertions. Instead, we would study the trends which have played out in the country. Subsequently, we will extrapolate this data to postulate about the different scenarios the nation might arrive at.

In chapters three through to six, we train our lenses on the political, social and economic indices of Nigeria. What trends do we need to take note of that will determine our future as a country? What are our challenges? How far have we progressed? What recourse is available to help us keep the country in the right trajectory over the next few years? These chapters provide us with the information on which we base our analysis and build our scenarios.

In chapter seven, we take a final look at all the trends we have built in the previous chapters and discuss how they are instrumental to our future. We go into the scenario planning and postulate the scenarios than can play out in the near future based on the trajectories of the past and present events.

In chapters eight through eleven, we examine each of the scenarios that we have postulated. We discuss the ramifications of each of these scenarios and discuss what they mean for the country.

We conclude with chapter twelve, where we discuss some of the flags observers can look out for, to help determine what direction the country is tending to, concerning the postulated scenarios. I believe that these flags can help anyone interested in Nigeria's future preempt it and prepare for whichever paths the country finally ends up taking.

Chapter Two

Anticipating Our Future

It is impossible to forecast the future, and it is foolish to try to do so.

-Pierre Wack, Scenario Planning Expert

Perhaps, one of the biggest shortcomings of human consciousness is that we know that the future will happen, but we do not know what will happen in it. Not knowing what is going to happen in future amplifies our anxiety, especially when what will happen in the future is directly linked to our present decisions. Uncertainty makes humans feel vulnerable. It is a threat to life. It is jumping down a cliff and not knowing whether to develop wings or fins. While many psychology blogs continue to dole out methods to overcome the anxiety that comes with uncertainty, business leaders, political analysts, economic analysts and policymakers cannot go about oblivious of the future of their businesses or states.

Our quest for order forces us to seek to regain control wherever we meet uncertainty. The human brain craves certainty just as it craves food. When the brain can envisage a future, it can properly prepare for it. That is why a man might find it less distressful knowing about an imminent danger than not knowing anything about his fate at all. To the brain, uncertainty is like pain that must be managed and, like a burning fire, must be quickly extinguished.

There are many questions that trouble the mind of the average Nigerian. Questions like: what is the fate of Nigeria's unity? Will the centre continue to hold? Are we prepared to prevent a future economic recession?

This book seeks to reduce the anxiety that clouds the minds of Nigerians and others who may be concerned about the future of the country. We create scenarios of the likely paths that the country might venture into over the next decade. Although this does not eliminate the undeducible nature of the future, it acquaints us with the different directions of possible events that may define our future.

Nigeria is currently the seventh largest country in the world in terms of population. It is also the most populous black country in the world. Even more, Nigeria is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world with over 300 distinct ethnic groups. Due to the myriads of cultures, traditions, beliefs, and interests of the Nigerian people, the society contains interwoven and interdependent interacting agents, the sorts which characterize complex systems.

Herbert Simon describes complex systems as systems that can be analyzed into many components having relatively many relations among them, so that the behaviour of each component depends on the behaviour of others.1

The behaviors of all these groups of Nigerians direct feedbacks—whether positive or negative—to the system. These feedbacks either seek to change or maintain the status quo of the system. Take for example, the Occupy Nigeria nationwide protests in 2012. Nigerians went on rampage after President Goodluck Jonathan announced the removal of subsidy on New Year's Day. These protesters had sought to maintain the status quo while government and its forces had struggled to change it.

Nigeria's complexities have been to its advantage in some cases and to its disadvantage in others. Diversity splashes a rainbow of brilliance on the culture of a community of people. However, heterogeneous communities usually have to overcome diverging interests, thus they struggle to achieve commonality. When a system is complex, it becomes more difficult to bring all drivers that may trigger future events into view. There are just too many players. Perhaps, we can put some of these drivers in groups that contain similar patterns. However, the uniqueness of certain events can be bound by their causes rather than their results. For instance, a Yoruba man might seek secession for a totally different reason from which an Ijaw man would. Solving the problem faced by the Yoruba man might not provide any clue to solving the problems of the Ijaw man. In such cases, solutions are not transferable.

Small triggers can lead to drastic changes in complex systems. Such triggers usually lead to chains of events that soon get out of hand. This phenomenon where small changes cause great effects in dynamic systems is called the Butterfly Effect. The butterfly effect describes that situation where a butterfly that flutters its wings in Brazil can cause a hurricane in China. In Nigeria, there are many butterflies sitting around waiting to cause a hurricane that rocks the country to its bottom. Such examples are not farfetched. When the Nigerian Police decided to take into custody, Muhammad Yusuf, a relatively unknown religious activist in North Eastern Nigeria, eventually killing him, they did not envisage that it would lead to over 20,000 deaths, and the displacement of more than two million people. This also resulted in the kidnapping of 276 girls from a college in Chibok.2 The government's inability to properly manage these incidents ensured that the Boko Haram insurgency eventually spilled out of the borders of the country into neighboring Cameroon and Chad. It also contributed significantly to the ousting of President Goodluck Jonathan, in what would be the first democratic transition in the presidency from one party to another since the inception of Nigeria. Before then, Buhari had unsuccessfully contested three times in the presidential elections, including a defeat against Goodluck Jonathan. The randomness at which small changes in complex systems can cause unexpected results is called the Chaos Theory.3 Even though such complex system follow recognizable patterns, little changes might leave the system unrecognizable. Chaos Theory teaches us to expect the unexpected.

While some may revolt that the killing of Muhammad Yusuf should not be reduced to the flap of the wings of a butterfly, nobody could have envisaged that his death would have triggered the chain of events that followed. The conflict in the North East still rages almost a decade after his death.

Incidences like this, and the volatility of the country makes it quite important for us to visualize our future and anticipate it appropriately. How well can we manage changes in the structure of our society? What likely events can be triggered by the socioeconomic and political trends currently apparent within the country? How well are we prepared to mitigate some of the terrible effects of these changes? What, even, are the likely changes that may occur?

The complexity of the country makes it very difficult to rush into predictions of events that might happen. Our oversight during such predictions will leave us blind to possible drivers that can change the course of this nation forever. Complex systems are characterized by unpredictability. This is because we cannot give a detailed account of all the initial conditions that make up that system, thus we cannot predict the ultimate fate of that system. Slight inaccuracies in the measurement of the state of the system will cause such predictions to become futile. A clearer way to describe the status quo of Nigeria is the US Army coined term 'VUCA'. VUCA is an acronym for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.4

When Goodluck Jonathan increased the pump price of PMS in January 2012, there was a nationwide protest that cost the country two trillion naira in just six days.5 Nigeria's complexity is a reflection of its poorly managed diversity. Our future is uncertain, and the absence of precedents in some future events amplifies this ambiguity.

The emergent property of complex systems postulates that interactions among the different agents in a complex system is greater than the mere sum of its parts.6 This is why forecasting is impractical in determining long-term future incidents. When we create images of the future, we often assume it as a trajectory of today's events. This makes us believe that tomorrow will be very much like today, or only slightly different. However, the emergent property of complex systems makes it highly likely that certain events, which may or may not have been earlier experienced or foreseen can lead to significant changes in a system, thus rendering forecasts inaccurate. Since companies or economies are likely to build strategies around such forecasts, the effect can be quite disastrous as they struggle to align their strategies to the new developments.

Forecasts are usually done by using sets of powerful analytical tools to predict the future of a company/state/organization enough to define a clear strategic direction for it. This approach can be completely dangerous. This is because it underestimates uncertainty, which leads to strategies that can neither take advantage of opportunities in the future nor defend against threats. Asides this, strategists who use forecasting will be ridden with bandwagon effects, optimism bias, confirmation bias, implicit favoritism or cognitive heuristics. All these often lead strategists to overlook the effect of uncertainty.

Professor of International Business and Strategy, Hugh Courtney, describes the levels of uncertainties in a four-part framework that is important to developing strategies for the future.7 According to him, uncertainties occur in varying folds. He went further to categorize them into four stages and advices on the things to take into consideration when developing strategies for those futures.

The first of these is a Clear Enough Future. This is the first level of uncertainty. Here, there is a clear single view of the future. The future is not expected to change very much from the present. Strategists can make use of standard analytical tools to help create strategies that determine the direction to be pursued.

The second stage is the Alternative Futures. At this level, the future is less certain, but there is a finite number of possible outcomes. Thus, strategists know the range of plans they have to make for the future. Strategists are certain one of those outcomes will occur.

The level of uncertainty increases in the third stage. Hugh Courtney calls this the Range of Futures. At this level, there are ranges of possible outcomes but strategists cannot clearly identify which will occur. Instead, they can only monitor triggers that lead to any of those possible outcomes to monitor how the future develops. At level four, it becomes impossible to determine the possible outcomes. This level is known as the True Ambiguity. Strategists have no knowledge of how the future will play out and have very little definite hints. There are limitless possible outcomes and strategists have limited knowledge on these plausible futures.

Hugh went ahead to state that most strategists usually approach the future at levels one and two. When the levels of uncertainties abound, however, they should look at the future from levels three and four. As uncertainty rises, strategists would move up these uncertainty ladders, and the clearer their view of the future, the more they drop down the ladder to level one; when the future becomes clear, they can make distinct and clear strategic directions.

When we are faced with such uncertainties about the future, scenario planning is the tool that strategists employ to determine the mould of their strategic directions.

Forecasting typically builds on historical data and current trends and conditions, and proposes singular most likely incidences. Predictions based on extrapolations of the past can be misrepresentative. Scenario planning builds on the impossibility of knowing precisely how the future will play out. Rather than pinpoint future events, scenario planning helps identify the forces driving the orientation of our future events. It helps us arrive at better decisions by making the driving forces more visible so we can anticipate the future suitably. It is the most viable tool to utilize in systems where random events can create significant departures from probable futures.

Sometimes these random events are high impact events such as earthquakes and assassinations, which are not usually included in forecasting processes but play a major role in the effectiveness of strategies. For example, none could have predicted that Olusegun Obasanjo, a political prisoner in 1998 would rise to become the nation's president less than a year after his release from prison. Yet, the sudden need for the country to be led through a phase of threatening disunity thrust in Olusegun Obasanjo's hands the mantle of leadership. Thus, forecasting is a limited tool which can put an organization or state at a limbo when unexpected things happen. And unexpected things almost always happen.

To understand the interdependencies within systems and learn how systems work and change, systems thinking becomes an important tool in one's scenario planning arsenal.

Scenario planning as a tool for preparing for the future was popularized by oil company, Royal Dutch Shell.8 Before the emergence of scenario planning in the corporate world, the art of examining present and past events to portend possible futures was reported in the 16th Century when Luis de Molina, a Spanish Jesuit scholar and theologian introduced the Conditional Future Contingents also known as "Futuribilia". He described it as the explanation for freewill, foreknowledge and predestination.9

In mid-19th Century, French futurists Gaston Berger and Bertrand de Jouvenel were among several French and American authors who contributed to the development of scenario thinking as a tool for describing the future. During this period, Herman Kahn, through his work at the US Military and the RAND Corporation developed techniques that attempted to give a clearer view of the future. He did this by creating stories based on plausible futures, what we would later know as scenarios, which the military used in strategizing and anticipating enemy moves. Due to his contributions, the military strategist and system theorist became widely regarded as the father of scenario planning. Scenario planning, as an important tool for anticipating the future, would become established in several institutions in the 1970s as new organizations that provided support in the field began to sprout. These included the Hudson Foundation, the Stanford Research Institute, and the SEMA Metra Consulting Group. It has thus gradually found its way into corporate planning.10

It was, however, not until oil establishment, Royal Dutch Shell, used the process to anticipate its future, at a time the oil industry still enjoyed relative stability, that scenario planning gained recognition as an essential corporate tool. It started with Pierre Wack, the company's head of corporate planning for Shell Francais, collaborating with Jimmy Davidson, Shell's overall head of planning, to hint the company's senior executives of possible directions of the company's business through developed long-term outlooks in the form of alternative futures. Wack had focused on creating stories about plausible futures of the oil industry. One of the scenarios had postulated that, due to certain events such as the destruction of oil pipelines in Saudi Arabia, OPEC would increase price of oil without a corresponding increase in supply. Astonishingly, in 1973, the oil price multiplied in four folds from US$3 per barrel to nearly $12 globally.11 Shell, having carefully anticipated this possibility rode on the wave of the oil shock from being the eighth largest oil company in the world to become the second largest oil company in the world in only two years.

This was the beginning of a tradition of scenario planning at Shell. After the incredible insights that Wack and Davidson's team provided the company, Peter Schwartz used the scenario planning to envisage the fall of communism in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) otherwise known as the Soviet Union. How important was this for Shell?

In the early 1980s, the Soviet Union had begun plans to extend their natural gas pipelines to Europe. This would have put Shell's natural gas business on the verge of extinction. Compared to Shell's natural gas, the Soviet Union's was quite cheap. Shell owned a multibillion-dollar underwater natural gas platform in Norway, which ensured its gas cost four times that of the Soviet Union.

Schwartz and his team, after studying energy data of the Soviet Union among other indicators, developed a plausible future where communism collapsed in the Soviet Union. They also provided flags that the company directors needed to look out for to determine if the scenario did develop. Much to the disbelief of the company, the Soviet Union collapsed. Having anticipated that future, Shell was the first major Western company to align its exploration strategies to benefit from the collapse.13

In the space of two decades, Shell benefited immensely from its investment in scenario planning. The corporation became the pacesetter for scenario planning in the corporate world. According to a United States government report in 1999, the Royal Dutch Shell process now serves as the template for which many scenario studies are carried out.14 Shell's use of scenario planning has now spanned over 45 years. It remains an important part of Shell's operations and continues to shape the company's global thinking and business directions. However, Shell is not the only company to successfully take advantage of this tool.

Renowned technology company, Apple enjoyed a number of successes from its use of scenario planning.15 Before Apple ventured into the smartphone market, it had entered into a partnership with Motorola to create mobile phone synchronizations with its iTunes. However, Motorola could not build a successful product from the partnership. The company continued to struggle to hold onto a share of the mobile phone market. Apple went on to create and release its first smartphone in 2007 after creating scenarios of the mobile phone market's future. Today, Apple has overtaken Motorola in the mobile market with a more valuable market-share. Apple's success with scenario planning has helped it grow from bankruptcy in year 2000 to become one of the world's most valuable companies.

The rise, fall and rise of AT&T indicates that being able to create scenarios is not enough, one should also be able to anticipate it with suitable strategies. When execution goes wrong, the advantage of correctly pre-empting the future becomes useless. In 1993, AT&T had published a commercial that correctly predicted the direction of digital technology.16 Funnily, the only major thing AT&T got wrong was that it would be the company to bring such technologies to the world. In 2000, AT&T eventually sold out and missed-out on the new technologies that would come to dominate modern communication; technologies it had correctly predicted almost a decade before.17 Perhaps AT&T's crash becomes more understandable when it is realized that the company had engineered the transistor, which serves as the backbone of telecommunication today. AT&T's missteps in the implementation of the cell phone were what eventually led to its early demise.

IBM's inability to make the right decision about the PC market is another example of companies that portended the future but did not take proper advantage of it. The company had underestimated the PC market. Although IBM pioneered that PC market, it eventually lost out to newer competitors before selling off its PC business to Chinese company, Lenovo. According to David Bradley, one of the team of 12 that produced the PC at IBM:

At the time, we didn't think it was going to be a revolutionary change," he said. "We knew we were working on an exciting project and we certainly hoped it was going to be successful, but we never imagined it was going to take over the world the way it did".18

If the company had done a proper scenario analysis and viewed more clearly plausible futures for the computing market, it might have been able to develop a scenario where more people owned their own computers. This would have helped the company protect its PC business, which it clearly did not do when it left the control of its software to young Bill Gates.

The Shell-type scenario planning is not about predicting the future. Rather, it guides companies or organizations to take informed decisions based on the possible routes its future might take. Thus, scenario planning is an attempt at creating plausible futures. It makes decision makers more open to unimaginable developments and provides vital links to the company's strategies. These strategies may make or mar the growth of the company.

South Africa has had a long history with scenario planning. In the early eighties, Clem Sunter, a former Chairman and CEO of Anglo American Corporation of South Africa, came up with a presentation titled "The World and South Africa in the 1990s". In the presentation, which he would later present to both Nelson Mandela and FW de Klerk, Clem developed two scenarios about the immediate future of South Africa. He called them the High Road and the Low Road. These became very popular in the mid-1980s.19

The High Road Scenario portended a future of political negotiation and settlement while the Low Road Scenario postulated South Africa would descend into a civil war. Eventually, South Africa took the High Road as Nelson Mandela took over the country's leadership baton from FW de Klerk to become the first black president in South Africa.

A senior colleague of mine, scenario planner and CEO of the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR), Frans Cronje, is in the middle of a trilogy where he shares scenarios of South Africa's immediate future. In 2014, he released the first of the series which he titled A Time Traveller's Guide to Our Next Ten Years. In the book, he developed four scenarios which he tagged "The Wide Road", "The Narrow Road", "The Rocky Road" and "The Toll Road". By the time Frans was writing the second book, some of the scenarios in the first book about South Africa had materialized.20 As he had envisaged in the fourth scenario, tagged the Toll Road, ANC begun to lose support in urban areas of South Africa and failed to introduce economic reforms as the economy suffered crushing blows. There were also nationwide protests and South Africa entered a new era of coalition politics.

In his second book, Frans published a new set of scenarios that puts into view South Africa in 2030. He titled this book A Time Traveller's Guide to South Africa in 2030. Frans named the new four scenarios "Rise of the Right", "Tyranny of the Left", "The Break Up", and "The Rise of the Rainbow". In this book, he envisages the future of South Africa one year after the 2029 elections, his scenarios have provided decision makers advance guide towards unexpected economic and political shifts so they may prepare adequately to take advantage of positive events and circumvent negative ones.21 The value that Frans' work brings to understanding South Africa's future has motivated me to write this book.

In 2015, as the Nigerian general elections approached, Statfor Enterprises did a short scenario analysis on the outcomes of the election.22 It weighed the extremes of the emergence of the two most likely winners of the election in Nigeria—Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari. The organization postulated four scenarios which were: A Disputed Jonathan Victory, An Uncontested Jonathan Election, A Disputed Buhari Victory and An Uncontested Buhari Victory. It was portended that should Buhari emerge as the uncontested president of the country, he would appoint Rotimi Amaechi into his cabinet, curtail unaccounted spending by Nigerian government, concentrate on reining in Boko Haram and implementing spending discipline. The publication also highlighted that the economy and security would be top priorities for Buhari's government. We all know which of these scenarios have played out.

The stories we tell, after going through a thorough scenario planning process, create important pictures for decision makers to design their strategies. These stories are the lens through which they now see what the future holds and the stories also inspire the mould of their decisions. Companies, states, and organizations want to be fully prepared for future occurrences, no matter how vague the future appears. When they seek that much certainty, scenario planning is the best compass to navigate these dark trenches.

Scenarios are built from understanding driving forces, which point the future in certain directions. The driving forces of the future fall into two categories—the predetermined elements and the critical uncertainties. The predetermined elements are the predictable part of the future, which are vital to decision making. They constitute the foreseeable future. When we base our perceptions of the future on just predetermined elements, we are simply forecasting. This is because critical uncertainties, which constitute the other category, disrupt our perception of the future. We must acknowledge that the future is based on known knowns, known unknowns as well as unknown unknowns. When we base our predictions of the future on only the known knowns (predetermined elements), we are leaving out two critical drivers of our future, making our predictions futile.

Scenario planning helps us bring these driving forces into perspective. It is dangerous to let things unfold on their own while we scramble to adapt to them. We just might be a little too late.

Scenario planning is a thorough exercise that requires heavy analysis of data relevant to the problem we are trying to solve or the future we are trying to visualize. What steps do we take during a scenario planning process? Shell's process, as Peter Schwartz documents in his book The Art of the Long View, provides us with a reliable template.23

The first step of scenario planning involves asking why the scenario planning is being carried out at all. What question are we asking about the future? Are we trying to figure out the fate of supermarkets in a world of e-commerce? Are we looking out for the influence of cryptocurrency in a country's financial system within five years? Are we seeking what businesses to invest in ten years from now? What are we trying to explore? What problem are we trying to solve?

In this book, we try to figure out what Nigeria's future will be like. How will our political and socioeconomic setup develop? What is the fate of Nigeria in the face of the current challenges in coming years? We will need to set a timeframe for which of our scenarios are plausible. For this book, we have set a timeframe that ends in 2030, which is just about a decade from now. Whatever future(s) we envisage must drive strategies that fit within this period.

After defining our goals and objectives, we identify the datasets that are relevant to the future we seek to visualize. While doing this, we must open ourselves to expect the unexpected or think the unthinkable. We cannot choose to ignore certain data trends as they will affect the efficacy of our vision about the future. In this book, we will focus on the political, social and economic trends of the country, which will be discussed in the subsequent chapters. We will explore dozens of indicators in each of these categories.

Our goal will be to harmonize some of these trends into related groups. This is the third step. In our search for data, we will be exposed to an incredible amount of information, some seemingly contradictory (which is fine as we are in a complex system). We need to sift through these items of information and select the ones that are most relevant to our decision process. Some of these trends will have similar effects on how we view the future. We will group such trends together.

The next step is to recognize the driving forces in these trends and rank them according to their impact on the scenarios we are trying to create. Generally, trends range between predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. Some of the trends are closer to certainty than other trends. Some also have more impact on our scenario building process than others. We will input these drivers on a graph of uncertainty/importance plot. Scenario planning is a tool used to visualize an uncertain future. Thus, entertaining drivers with low importance and low uncertainty makes the process gratuitous. This step will help us determine the most important drivers so we can arrive at a clearer view of the changes that might occur in the future. It may also reshape our questions about the future and help us arrive at better questions. When we ask the right questions, we can arrive at the right answers. Below is a graph plotting trends of Uncertainty along the y-axis against trends of Importance along the x-axis. The range for both x-axis and y-axis is between low and high. Trends will rank according to their importance and uncertainty. This is shown in Diagram 2.1 below.

From the graph, we identify the trends that are the most uncertain and have the highest impacts on our decisions. These driving forces have the capability to change the world we are trying to view dramatically.

For each of the drivers we derive from the fourth step, we will take the most uncertain and most impactful and plot them in a matrix of four quadrants to perform extreme outcomes analysis. This means we select the attributes that serve as the polar directions in which the drivers can go in the future. We review the extremes that these drivers may travel. Using the four-quadrant method as shown in Diagram 2.2 below helps us arrive at four highly differentiated plausible scenarios across these two highly uncertain highly impactful drivers. Any of these four scenarios can happen but we cannot point out which one. We can create catchy names for the four of them as we go through the next steps.

When we have derived these scenarios, we develop a narrative around each of them. These are stories that describe each of these futures succinctly. We may seek the trends that we studied earlier and determine which of them leads to the stories that we have created. We must be careful not to state any assumptions in our stories clearly.

When observers read our story about the future, they will also want to understand how they may recognize these futures very early. If we point to one particular future, then we might as well be forecasting. Our quest for certainty at this point must be managed to only allow us seek flags that can guide our path to the future. Since any of these futures can play out, we need to set indicators to know which of them is unfolding so we might align our strategies towards them.

To do this, we look at the components for assessing the transformations that these scenarios may drive. We list out the indicators within these components and create markers that can help strategists know when any of these futures are unfolding. Notably, these futures may interchange as they develop. Strategists must be armed with enough tools to help them create plans that encompass all scenarios.

While developing these scenarios, we must put some golden rules at the back of our minds. According to Roland Kupers and Angela Wilkinson of the Royal Dutch Shell, some of these golden rules include the following.24

  * Scenarios should be plausible, not probable
  * Stories should be memorable, yet disposable
  * Entertain disagreements in scenario analysis
  * Seek quantifiable data in scenario analysis and planning
  * Ensure scenarios develop a recognizable pathway
  * Ensure scenarios are relevant to the strategic management

The process of understanding what the future holds for Nigeria is germane to helping business owners, citizens, and policymakers make better decisions going forward. In Clem Sunter's book, The Mind of A Fox, he made several distinctions between a hedgehog and a fox.

Hedgehogs are unprepared for uncertainties. They believe that life revolves around one big idea, one ultimate truth and that if we can get at that idea, everything else will be right. On the other hand, foxes embrace the dynamism and unpredictability of life. They believe that it is a waste of time trying to create one exact path into the future. Rather, they embrace life's multiple crossroads, where they negotiate turnings according to requirements at that time. Highly adaptable, they are sensitive to their surroundings and quickly manoeuvre their ways around new situations. Hedgehogs blame their surroundings for their failures, while foxes look to understand every new situation and make spontaneous decisions. It does not mean that foxes do not have plans. Instead, they know that plans can change and holding on to one ultimate plan is usually eventually futile. The best plan is the plan that embraces the possibilities of sudden changes.

This book is for foxes, people who embrace the complexity of life and are seeking to understand more about the present. They are nimble and are on the lookout for signs of changes or developments that arise. This will help them quickly make critical decisions and become less of victims in the future. Sometimes there are small changes, other times there are big changes. In the end, the most successful are those who can adapt to the variety of changes in life.

Scenario planning presents plausible futures instead of approaching the world as though there were just a single path into the future.

Chapter Three

An Economic Or Social Dilemma

The rise of Nigeria, despite our myriads of problems, to become one of the most important African countries by both economy and population gives credence to our viability as a nation. The country survived about three decades of military coups, a civil war, several economic depressions, ethnic conflicts, epidemics and even more. We continue to forge ahead as one country, even when the country's own citizens perpetually doubt its sustainability. Nigeria has continued to withstand the test of fire and after each test shows no sign of withering. This is not to say that things will remain constant, that we will always withstand every threat or that we will always come out stronger. In fact, we understand that several threats will leave us weaker, and we do not know the stroke that will break our camel's back. One thing we can comfortably entertain is that Nigerians are resilient and sometimes docile. While there are several outliers who will take to the streets to question government decisions, create blockades and line the front of state and national houses of assemblies, many will not. Perhaps, this is the reason the late renowned musician, Fela Anikulapo Kuti, describes the citizens' situation as "suffering and smiling" in his song "Shuffering and Shmiling". An excerpt from the song goes thus:

Every day—for house

Every day—for road

Every day—for bus

Every day—for work

My people... my people... my people...

Every day my people dey inside bus

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Forty-nine sitting, ninety-nine standing

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go pack themselves in like sardine

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them dey faint, them dey wake like cock

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go reach house water no dey

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go reach bed power no dey

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go reach road go-slow go come

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go reach road police go slap

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go reach road army go whip

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Them go look pocket money no dey

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

Every day na the same thing

CHORUS: Suffering and smiling

In this famous song, Fela described several of the things Nigerians face daily: police brutality, poverty, poor road networks and water supply, inadequate power supply amidst several other things. Shockingly, these represent only few of the threats to the existence of the country. Yet, Nigeria is ranked 6th in Africa and 95th in the world in the 2017 World Happiness Report, which ranks 155 countries by their happiness levels.1 Similarly, Nigerians are very optimistic.

Although we continue to enjoy some progress in the midst of these problems, we believe that this will not go on forever. That, somehow, things will change along the line. However, we do not know what key decisions will eventually throw Nigeria off balance, or set it on the path of incredible growth and stability. We have asked ourselves: Where will this change come from? Will setting our economic affairs straight cause everything to fall in place or will it be the social affairs? Will putting an end to ethnic conflicts reduce the rate of poverty or will ending poverty reduce the rate of ethnic conflicts?

Before we can duly examine our future as a country, we need to outline those important trends that characterize our nationhood. This book takes a deeper look into our economic, social and political trends. In this chapter, we take an overview of some of the threats to our progress as a country and compare our fortunes with those of other countries who have achieved similar prosperity as Nigeria.

Restructuring

The biggest talking point in Nigeria is "restructuring the country". Our economic growth seems to be a poor reflection of our development as a nation. Surprisingly, the rise of our democracy also points in a different direction—of how well Nigerians are living together. Different regions of Nigeria still believe that if they have enough incentive to leave the country, they will. However, Nigeria's constitutional structure and the tedious process of getting the National Assembly to amend the constitution remains a major obstacle.

The rise of pro-Biafran agitators for the second time in Nigeria's history, especially after a bloody civil war, points to the cracks in ethnic relations within the country. Many of the politicians in the east have publicly denounced Biafra. This denouncement is a plus for Nigeria's political unity. It might also be an indication that pro-Biafran agitators might not get enough political power to reach their goal of secession. Unlike the 1966 agitation where political leaders in the east were at the forefront of the fight for secession, Nnamdi Kanu's cohorts seem to be lacking in support of the same degree.

Nigerians who support the statehood of Nigeria do not necessarily believe that the country is in a healthy state. In fact, when you ask the average Nigerian, they will most likely point out more of the failures of the country than its successes. Nevertheless, when asked if they support secession, more often than not, the answer is in support of Nigeria's unity. Nigerians will rather point out leadership and corruption as the country's biggest problems.

In part, the country's leaders have taken action against corruption with the establishment of anti-corruption agencies—the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), and the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC). These organizations have led anti-corruption campaigns against people who were believed to be involved in one corrupt practice or the other. While the agencies may have made some progress in combating internet fraud and advance fee fraud, their fight against the political class has been largely futile. Nuhu Ribadu, EFCC's first chairman, was accused of being a political stooge during his time at the office. Despite the common belief that corruption is pervasive among Nigerian politicians, the two anti-corruption agencies have convicted an insignificant amount of politicians. However, the progress of these two agencies in battling corruption has ensured that Nigeria exited the top ten most corrupt countries in the world and continues to move closer to the cleaner end of the index by Transparency International, which ranks 159 countries.2

We can celebrate our gradual exodus from the league of corrupt nations. If you fully grasp the spate of corruption in Nigeria, you will celebrate every progress in the war against corruption too. The high level of corruption in Nigeria brings about low quality services. Costs of obtaining basic services are also high, also mostly due to corruption. Yet, corruption is not the only threat to Nigeria's existence.

When Nigeria kicked off its Vision 20:2020 program in 2010, the country outlined several obstacles to its growth.3 Some of them are decaying and poor infrastructure, epileptic power supply, weak fiscal and monetary policies, high population growth, insecurity of lives and properties, weak institutions amidst others. In 2015, the country moved closer to its dream and was only two (2) places away from entering the bracket of the top 20 economies in the world. Rather than move into this elite group, today Nigeria has slipped further away from the bracket and now sits at number 28 largest economy in the world in 20174 (no thanks to the recession). With 2020 less than three years away, it will take drastic policies—or the falling apart of other economies—to enable the country achieve this economic goal by 2020.

Investment bankers, Goldman Sachs, matched Nigeria with ten other economies in 2005. This group was called the Next 11 and consisted of Nigeria, Mexico, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. The Next 11 was a replacement of the BRIC, which consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Goldman Sachs also mooted this group in 2003.5 The economies of the countries listed in BRIC grew rapidly since 2003. Just like the BRIC, the Next 11 share similar characteristics of a significant industrial capacity or potential as well as rapidly growing populations. Growing population contributes to a rising consumer market. These countries are also characterized by similar long-term risk of slowing oil production for the oil exporters and rising levels of political instability.

We will now proceed to examine how Nigeria has fared in comparison with some of the countries in this group. The Next 11 are divided into two sub-groups; the developing economies and the newly industrialized. The developing economies include the following countries; Nigeria, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam. The newly industrialized, heavily reliant on its primary exports with a proven potential for increased industrial growth, include Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, Turkey and Mexico. Only South Korea represents a developed economy. The second group has a greater industrial capacity than the former.

Since 2005, these economies have grown in different proportions. Of the 11, Indonesia has been the highest climber, moving from being 24th largest economy in 2005 to 15th in the world in 2017. Nigeria still ranks below all the countries classified in the newly industrialized group, excluding Egypt.6 Yet, it continues to do much better than other countries in its sub-group of emerging economies.

To put the situation of Nigeria in context, we compare four countries in the next eleven with similar GDPs. It is erroneous to make comparisons with countries that are more prosperous and assume that things are going very badly for Nigeria. It is also poor comparison to pitch Nigeria against less prosperous countries and assume we are making giant leaps. Thus, we compare Nigeria's fortunes with Egypt, the Philippines and the Republic of Iran with 304.9 billion dollars, 336.3 billion dollars and 393.4 billion dollars respectively.7

Nigeria is the seventh largest country in the world. With an estimated 186 million people, it is also the most populous black nation in the world. The three other countries have just about half the population of Nigeria each. Egypt has a population of 95.69 million people. Iran is lowest of the four at 80.28 million people while the Philippines is a distant second at 103.3 million people. Yet, Iran is one of the most populous countries in the Middle East.8 With these populations reeled out before us, Nigeria's GDP does not look so good anymore when its sheer population is factored in, especially in comparison with the other countries with similar GDPs.

According to World Bank's statistics, the GDP per capita of the sample countries are as follows: 4,957.58 USD (Iran), 3,514.49 USD (Egypt), 2,951.07 USD (The Philippines) and 2,177.99 USD (Nigeria). The country with the lowest population easily scored more GDP per capita for its citizens.9 However, the gap between the country with the highest GDP (Iran) and the lowest (Nigeria) is just about 2,000 USD. This keeps our comparison relatively healthy.

When you look at the population growth rate of Nigeria, compared to the rest, we realize that the gap between Nigeria and the rest of these countries may continue to widen. Nigeria's growth rate is 2.6 per cent, which is more than double that of Iran (1.2 %) and much higher than the Philippines (1.6%) and Egypt (2.0%).10 This implies that if GDP growth rate remain steady, Nigeria will become poorer than the rest of the three in few years.

Perhaps, it was due to this foresight that the country inaugurated the much publicized family planning campaign. In 2012, after the London Summit on Family Planning, the country joined the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) project to control the country's fertility rate. The campaign aimed to reduce unplanned births, cater to infant and maternal mortality rate and ensure couples have family sizes they can cater for. In 2016, 1,628,000 women in Nigeria were using one form of contraceptive or the other. Through this, 1,450,000 unplanned births were to be averted. In 2014, Nigeria committed to spend US $8.35 million annually (currently US $3 million) for the procurement of reproductive health commodities. In 2017, the federal government made another commitment to spend 4 million US dollars on contraceptives annually.11 The federal government's effort may have an effect on our growth rate eventually.

While we may be committing a lot to family planning, the state of the nation's healthcare is quite worrisome. With only 51 points, Nigeria ranked at 140th position on the Health Care Access and Quality Index.12 The ranking quantifies personal access to healthcare and the quality of the healthcare available in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015.

The Sun Newspaper in the same report revealed that about 15,000 medical doctors have left the country to work in American and European countries. In 2015, about 715 doctors left the country. This was only a continuation of a trend that witnesses the exodus of more than 500 doctors yearly. This leaves the country with less than sixty thousand doctors available for about 180 million people. This means the average doctor/patient ratio in Nigeria sits at 1:4250, which is quite appalling when compared with the recommendation of 1:600 by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Most Nigerians have no basic healthcare coverage. When the National Health Insurance Scheme was introduced in 1999, the government could not have predicted its unprecedented failure. According to the health minister, the government had spent 351 billion naira without any proportionate result.13 After twelve years, the scheme has only covered 1.5 per cent of the whole population. Health Management Organizations (HMOs) are riddled with corruption and this only represents a small part of a failing healthcare system. Hospitals are ill-equipped, diagnostic machines and equipment are inadequate, and many citizens die from avoidable death.14 These have caused several Nigerians to seek medical care outside the country. Those who are unable to finance such adventures are left at the mercy of the deteriorating service within the country.

About 100 million people still lack access to basic sanitation facilities and more than 60 million lack access to clean water. According to UNICEF, Nigeria has consistently failed to implement policies aimed at increasing access to sanitation facilities and clean water. The country failed to meet the Millennium Development Goals of ensuring 75 per cent of the citizens have access to clean water.15 By 2017, access to clean water improved to 67 per cent. This bettered the 46.07 per cent recorded in 2000. People without access to basic sanitation facilities made up 36.46 per cent of the population too in 2000 but deteriorated to 32.60 in 2015. More people now have access to basic sanitation facilities. About 60,000 children under the age of five die yearly from diseases related to the poor development in access to water, sanitation and hygiene. All these contribute to Nigeria's low human development index.16 Life expectancy in Nigeria is only a little above 54 years. At this mark, Nigeria ranks 16th in Africa and 216 in the world. Remarkably, life expectancy in Nigeria has been slowly improving.17

Nigeria (0.527) ranked worse than all three other countries in Human Development Index (HDI). HDI for Egypt is 0.69, while Iran (0.77) and Philippines (0.68) also recorded much higher indices. With regards to access to water and sanitation facilities, Egypt boasts 98 per cent access to water supply and 93 per cent access to basic sanitation facilities. Iran provides 95 per cent access to water to its citizens and ensures 88.29 per cent of its population have access to basic sanitation facilities. Philippines has registered 90 per cent access to water supply and 75 per cent access basic sanitation.18

In terms of healthcare, compared to Nigeria, more than 90 per cent of Iranians have healthcare insurance.19 Life expectancy in Iran stands at 75.59 years. However, Iran is the only country out of the four that has its healthcare sorted. Although Philippines Health Insurance Coverage caters to approximately 91 per cent of the country, the country is still struggling to provide equal access to quality healthcare across the country.20 There are medical personnel shortages. Only 70,000 out of the 130,000 licensed doctors are available to cater to about 100 million people who reside in the country. About 10,000 doctors have also left the country to work as nurses. The rest have either retired or also emigrated as doctors.21 Out-of-pocket spending remains high at 57 per cent of total expenditure on health.22 Since many of the citizens, especially the poor, cannot afford good medication, the hospitals feel the heat with returning patients. Life expectancy in the Philippines is 68.41 years.

Egypt also boasts a high life expectancy at 71.32 years but things are dicey with its healthcare system. The Health Insurance Organization covers more than half of the country.23 Public Healthcare in Egypt does not strike much confidence among Egyptians. This is why about 70 per cent of the country's healthcare needs are provided by the private healthcare system. Households, in out-of-pocket health expenditures, take up approximately 72 per cent of the country's healthcare expenditure. What is evident in this is that pharmaceuticals take the higher share of those expenditures. This is because, pharmaceutical drugs and medicine, highly priced in Egypt, are causing a strain in the pockets of households. For the government to make healthcare more accessible to the general populace, the Egyptian government will need to spend more on its healthcare system, engineer lower prices for drugs, and ensure efficient management of the country's healthcare facilities.

Thus, we may infer that Nigeria is facing similar problems that countries with similar fortunes face. However, the success of Iran means that proper implementation of healthcare policies can help the country achieve better healthcare. In terms of access to water supply and sanitation facilities, Nigeria is doing very poorly among its counterparts. This is also true concerning the Human Development Index. We should be better than we currently are. However, this is expected to improve over the next decade, especially due to improving healthcare across the world.

Access to power supply is another important factor for consideration. Only recently, the World Bank reported that as much as 75 million Nigerians do not have access to electricity. That 2017 World Bank report ranked Nigeria second worst in the world, only behind India, on electricity access deficit. Nigeria's economy runs on an epileptic energy system. The country's over 180 million people have to share the 6,000 MW generated by the nation's power plants. Although Nigeria has the capacity to generate 12,000 MW, inefficiencies in its operations means we can only enjoy half of that.24

Compared to Nigeria, 99 per cent of Egyptians have access to electricity. Iran ranks 19th largest producer and 20th largest consumer of electricity in the world and provides access to power supply to 99.44 per cent of its population. Eighty-nine per cent of Filipinos have access to electricity.25 In Nigeria, only about half of the population (57 per cent) are connected to the grid. These remaining three countries, especially Egypt and Iran have been ruthless in ensuring stable power supply for their citizens. Egypt may have been experiencing power cuts more often than before, but the government continues to work assiduously to ensure this ends. The country is able to supply 24,700 MW to its 90 million citizens.26

The poor electricity supply has increased the cost of doing business in Nigeria, and sometimes led businesses to become unsustainable. In spite of this, Nigeria has risen to become one of the largest economies in Africa and the world. If this growth is to be boosted, local businesses must have access to stable power supply.

Another important indicator to check across these countries is poverty rate. A nation may appear prosperous in terms of GDP, but when most of its citizens have barely enough to eat, then such prosperity cannot be said to be real. Nigeria's staggering wealth is undermined by the fact that about 70 per cent of its people live below poverty line. This is worsened by inadequate access to healthcare, water supply, electricity supply, and other infrastructure.

Poverty rate in Iran hovers around 30 per cent to 40 per cent. Unemployment rate is around 25 per cent to 30 per cent. The system of government in Iran ensures that people are heavily restricted from participating in economic activities, which translates into falling standard of living. Some citizens even sell their organs in desperation for survival.

An Iranian sociologist, Majid Mohammadi, describes life in Iran:

Systematic mishandling of national resources, widespread corruption, allocation of billions of dollars for military conflicts abroad and low foreign investment due to the anti-Western policies of the regime, are among the reasons Iran has become increasingly poorer over the past four decades.27

We find a correlation with Nigeria during the military regime where the prosperity of Nigeria was barely felt among the populace. This led to several periods of unrest and the continuous call for democratic governance. Iran's current Supreme Leader has been in power since 1989 and serves as the overall head of the Iranian government.

In Egypt, 2011 marked the end of a repressive military regime that lasted 30 years. In what started as a protest against police brutality, something that is also commonplace in Nigeria, Egyptians joined the sweeping Arab Spring that led to the end of several governments in the Arab region. When the protests hit full capacity, protesters had listed many other causes asides police brutality. These included corruption, freedom of speech, lack of free elections, high unemployment, food price inflation, and low wages.28

The unemployment rate in the Philippines is 6 per cent and the poverty rate hovers around 21.6 per cent.29 These are better statistics than Nigeria has managed in a while.

Another thing to notice among these four countries is the heavy presence of rebel groups.

In the Philippines, the new government is trying to quell rebel groups disrupting the peace of the country and killing citizens. After initially declaring a ceasefire, President Rodrigo Duterte declared war on the rebel groups.30 The Maute armed group in the southern city of Marawi remains one of the president's biggest headaches. The group, also known as Islamic State of Lanao, has doubted links with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS). The group is responsible for several attacks on the country's soldiers, civilians and properties. It has carried out a number of bomb attacks. One of the strategies used by the group is the recruitment of children who they convert to child soldiers. The Maute group is just one of the rebel groups around Mindanao threatening the peace of the Philippines.

Before now, Southwestern Philippines suffered deadly violence for several decades and around 120,000 people lost their lives in what is now known as the Mindanao conflict.31

Jundallah, also known as People's Resistance Movement of Iran (PRMI) holds forte in Iran. The group, based in South Eastern Iran, claims to represent the interest of Sunni Muslims. The group's leader, Abdolmalek Rigi, was captured and executed in December 2010. That did not stop the growth of the organization, which now boasts more than 700 fighters.32 The group has been involved in several terrorist campaigns, including bombings and an attack on the president's motorcade.

In Egypt, the Arab Spring brought with it a new wave of terrorism, which has left more than five hundred people killed in different bombing incidents. Many of these terrorist organizations are fallouts from the 2011 Egyptian revolution. However, there had been several rebel groups before then, including al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya.33

Nigeria shares a similar fate with its war against Boko Haram. When the country tried to negotiate a ceasefire and settle the discords amicably, leaders of Boko Haram were not compliant. Soon afterwards, the government threw the army at the group and North Eastern Nigeria remains a zone in conflict as the Nigerian army continues to push back the insurgents.

Thus, we find several similarities between Nigeria and these countries with similar GDPs. Their growth continues to be undermined by the spate of terrorism within their states. When these governments try to make peace with the rebel groups, soon afterwards they go back on their plans by reverting to military force. Insecurity remains a huge obstacle to all these governments and all of them have found it difficult to contain this problem. Insecurity may be as a result of failure on the part of the government, but it is not common to only Nigeria. This does not mean that we should condone the continuous threat on lives and properties. Nigeria's Boko Haram has had a far more damaging effect than the other groups in the past decade.

Asides insecurity, we also find that Nigeria is doing poorly compared to its counterparts in several socioeconomic indicators. The presence of widespread corruption, mismanagement and insecurity is common among all four countries. However, the effects are more damaging on the Nigerian populace.

Remarkably, Nigeria is moving forward despite the odds. Our rise to the summit of Africa's economic ladder and the stability of our democracy provide silver linings in our dark clouds. Our success in containing the deadly Ebola epidemic also points to our capabilities at managing threats to our existence as a people. These are only some of the positives enjoyed since the turn of the millennium.

This book is neither a chronicle of Nigeria's failures nor a hackneyed essay about the problems of the country. As we progress, we will pay more attention to several other indicators that are relevant to our study of Nigeria. The most important thing is to discover trends across the indicators; how they connect together and the stories they subsequently tell.

Through the next few chapters, we will examine economic, social and political trends. These trends will help us understand some of the most critical changes that might happen to the country over the next few decades.

Chapter Four

It All Hinges On Oil

Nigeria's inherent dependence on oil revenue to drive the economy puts it in a very delicate position. The country operates an intensely volatile and unstable economy that is only as strong as the price of oil in the world market. The simple implication is that when the price of oil drops, Nigeria struggles to maintain its fiscal strength. Despite this obvious knowledge, the country has found it difficult to diversify from the oil wells and strengthen the markets for its other contributors to the GDP.

If we examine Nigerian government's revenue since 2010 with oil prices during the same period as shown in the graphs below, we find a correlation. Drops in oil prices translated to a relative drop in government revenue. Graph 4.1 shows government revenue in billion naira between 2010 and 2016. Graph 4.2 reflects the changes in oil price since 2008.

When Nigeria slipped into recession in 2016, it was its biggest economic highlight since the turn of the century. This was the worst economic downturn experienced since 1987. A recession is usually characterized by worsened unemployment rates, declining gross domestic product (GDP), falling real income and hyperinflation. The economy had shrunk by -0.36 per cent when compared to the previous year and -0.15 per cent in 2016.1 Inflation rates rose above 17 per cent and unemployment rates continued to skyrocket. About two million people lost their jobs during this period, adding to the two million that were rendered jobless the previous year.2 Capital inflow had also dropped by 46.8 per cent to $5.12 billion at the end of 2016 compared to $9.64 billion that came into Nigeria through Foreign Direct Investments, Foreign Portfolio Investments and other investments in 2015.3

There might have been many causes for the economic recession, but principal among them was that Nigeria's economic success was hinged on the volatile oil market. While oil price dropped from about 112 dollars per barrel in 2014 to less than 50 dollars per barrel in 2016, we were not prepared for the revenue shortfall. More than 70 per cent of Nigeria's revenue comes from oil trade. More than 90 per cent of Nigeria's export revenue is accrued from crude oil.4 The reserves were mostly depleted and non-oil revenue could barely cater to the imbalance created by the low oil revenue turnover. While Nigeria's non-oil sector is on a steady but impressive growth, it is driven by revenue from the oil sector. When the oil industry booms, the non-oil industry enjoys similar growth. Thus, it rarely happens that the non-oil sector comes to the country's rescue in such difficult times.

In addition to the revenue shortfall, Nigeria's oil production output was not at its optimum due to militant activities in the Niger Delta. Production had dropped from 2.11 million barrels a day in the first quarter to 1.69 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2016.5 Militancy in the Niger Delta is one of Nigeria's headaches that has refused to go away. The existence of that threat means that Nigeria will continue to be at the mercy of a few aggrieved youths and overlords.

The Oil Industry and the Interbank Market

At the height of the recession, the value of the naira suffered huge blows. The naira depreciated to an incredibly low 365 naira to 1 dollar in the interbank market while it went as low as 423 naira to 1 dollar in the parallel market. The direction that the government took in the face of worsening foreign exchange rates was rather alarming. While there was increased pressure on the naira, the government refused to devalue the currency. No one likes a weak currency.

When the apex bank continues to peg the naira at a certain value much wider than the rates at the parallel market, they directly widen the gap between the poor and the rich. Rich influential people get to buy the usually scarce foreign currency at the stronger rate and then sell to the parallel market at the weaker rate, thus taking advantage of the stubbornness of the government.

In 2016, while the naira stood at 465 naira to a dollar in the parallel market, the CBN continued to hold onto the official rate of 200 naira per dollar. This created an opportunity for politicians and other highly influential citizens to buy the dollar at 200 naira from the Central Bank of Nigeria and then go ahead to sell same, for about 465 naira in the parallel market. This opportunity paved the way for inappropriate gains borne out of more suffering to low-end buyers in the market.

Parallel markets, when allowed to thrive in a country, wrestle control of the economy from the government. This is aggravated when people have little access to foreign exchange at bank rates and must therefore conduct their businesses at rates higher than the regulated level. Restrained access to foreign exchange had severe repercussions on the economy. Companies that relied heavily on importation, especially for raw materials, suffered economic losses and soon had to lay off workers.

Recessions are very tricky situations. People's reactions to a recession tend to worsen the economy. When there is an economic downturn, companies are quick to lay off workers they deem disposable so as to cut down their wage bills and, subsequently, their running costs. During this period, real income stagnates or declines. People react by shrinking their spending so their savings can cater to their needs for a longer period. The lesser the trade activity in a country, the slower the movement of money between needing parties. Although this might eventually trigger a drop in price, since supply now outweighs demand, it rarely happens. Inflation however sets in as each seller is trying to gain as much return as possible in order to guarantee the sustainability of the business as well as cater for his or her family during the difficult period. Thus, you have a problem that may only be solved by an external injection of vitality into the economy, perhaps foreign assistance or radical policies.

The Rise of Renewables

The country might not need to worry so much if it still has tons of undrilled oil in its vast lands. Nevertheless, that will only be good news if just the availability of crude oil is enough to guarantee Nigeria's petroleum revenue windfall. Most times when oil revenue drops, it soon picks up again. Therefore, we just have to endure till the oil price shoots up to such a price that bodes well for our economy. However, when we examine the future of fossil fuel as the key driver of industrialization and transportation, we begin to reevaluate our position on oil revenue.

In 2008, a new American company reached giant strides by producing the first modern, fully electricity-run car. It was called the Roadster by the American billionaire, Elon Musk, who owned Tesla. About ten years after the release of the Roadster, the company has released three subsequent cars, each more affordable than the former. The goal of Elon Musk and the Tesla Company is to move the world from dependency on fossil fuel to renewable energy.

Elon Musk, whose private company was also the first to send a shuttle to space, land a used rocket and reuse a used rocket, is quite resolute in his ambitions. The American billionaire is known to attempt big aspirations and accomplish set out goals. Tesla does not just produce electric cars; it is gradually building an ecosystem that depends fully on renewable energy.

In 2013, Tesla merged with SolarCity, a company also owned by Elon Musk, that builds rooftop solar systems. When houses change their roofing sheets to Elon's panels, they can generate enough electricity to last them through each day. Then came the power wall. Storage had always been a major limitation to using renewable energy. However, Elon, together with some university professors, reengineered the common battery to produce the lithium ion battery, which is much more efficient and cheaper than the former ones. He then built a gigafactory to scale the production of these batteries. According to Elon, to turn the needle on the fossil fuel market, his company needs to build a 100 more of those factories and he estimated that his company would accomplish it in about 10-15 years.6

Perhaps we can underrate the effect of just one company competing with 150 years and trillions of dollars spent on gasoline cars. In June 2014, Elon announced that the company would allow its technology patents to be used by anyone in good faith.7 This, according to him, will accelerate the mass market for sustainable transport and energy usage. At this rate, countries that are entirely dependent on sales of fossil fuel will need to watch their backs. The more successful Elon Musk and his company, Tesla, are in the coming years, the higher the amplitude of their impact. This is because both old and emerging companies have joined in the making of renewable energy powered cars. Soon, countries that are major buyers of Nigeria's oil will start to cut down on their demand.

The 2013 Paris Agreement is perhaps the biggest political supporter of the movement towards renewable energy. Countries who signed the agreement are looking to cut down their greenhouse gas emission in the near future. Nigeria is among the 160 countries that have ratified the framework. All Nigeria's export partners have also agreed to implement the framework, which ensures they will work to reduce their usage of fossil fuel and turn as quickly as they can towards renewable energy.8 All, except the United States. United States is one of the largest buyers of Nigerian oil. While American President, Donald Trump, requested to pull out of the Paris Agreement, the country remains a capitalist state. With the rise of electric cars and the subsequent drop in the cost of using an electric vehicle compared to gasoline powered engines, Nigeria may eventually feel the heat.

Britain, also one of Nigeria's biggest oil buyers,9 has promised to ban sales10 of all diesel and petrol engines by 2040. This came on the heels of France's announcement to do the same. Car companies are seeking to phase out gasoline-powered cars11 from their production lines in a few years' time. Another country that has committed to joining this train is Nigeria's biggest oil buyer, India. These three hold as much as a combined 30 per cent share of the Nigerian oil export market.12 If other European countries follow suit, and market forces force the hands of the others, Nigeria may need to find a new product for its foreign trade relations.

In addition to the threat of a diminishing oil market, Nigeria agreed to commence plans towards reduction of greenhouse emission in June 2017. Ironically, the Economic Recovery Growth Plan of Nigeria, an economic policy framework by Nigeria introduced by the government in 2017, projected that the country will up its oil production from 2.2 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2020.13 Nigeria is not stopping in its bid to increase the capacity of its oil export. Are our export partners willing to continue business at the same scale? If the demand for oil drops drastically, what are Nigeria's options?

Comparing the revenue generated from oil export with that generated from other commodities, it is apparent that Nigeria's oil driven economy may crash if oil revenue experiences a 50 per cent drop. The 2016 recession confirms this. Oil currently dominates Nigeria's exports in terms of revenue. Although the sector accounts for just 10 per cent of GDP, it represented 94 per cent of export earnings and 62 per cent of government revenues (federal and state) in 2011-2015.14 The below, of Nigeria's top ten exports, shows the share of each product category in the total export from Nigeria in 2016.15

S/N | Export Product | Revenue | Percentage of Total Exports

---|---|---|---

1 | Mineral fuels including oil | US$31.9 billion | 91.6%

2 | Cocoa  | $899.1 million | 2.6%

3 | Wood | $279.4 million | 0.8%

4 | Oil seeds | $279.2 million | 0.8%

5 | Raw hides, skins (other than furskins), leather | $216.7 million | 0.6%

6 | Ores, slag, ash | $169 million | 0.5%

7 | Aluminium | $134.9 million | 0.4%

8 | Copper | $109.8 million | 0.3%

9 | Fish | $107.2 million | 0.3%

10 | Fruits, nuts | $65.6 million | 0.2%

If Nigeria continues its over-reliance on the petroleum industry to drive its economy and experiences no significant shift in its revenue structure in the coming decade, the economy may suffer huge shocks and remain very volatile.

The Income Imbalance

Contrary to what may be perceived by many Nigerians, Nigerians are actually getting richer. If we study Graph 4.3 below, we find that in the past two decades, Nigeria's per capita income has multiplied by eight folds from about 299 dollars per person to 2640 dollars per person. Although this is undermined by the rising inflation, which diminishes the value of the increased wealth, Nigerians are still better off than they were in 1999 or at any point before then. This is notwithstanding Nigeria's rising population that is at 2.6 per cent per annum—which is double the world's population growth rate.

Why then would Nigerians doubt that they now have more riches than they have ever had in history? The answer is not farfetched. Ironically, while the GDP per capita income has increased, showing Nigerians to be richer than ever before, the poverty level in the country has increased at similar pace. There are more poor Nigerians than there have been in recent history. In 1980, only 27.2 per cent of the total population was poor.16 In 1996, during the military dictatorship of General Sani Abacha, Nigeria's poverty rate had risen to an incredible 65.6 per cent. Nigeria's poverty rate had shown signs of improving in 2004 when it stood at 54.4 per cent. Sadly, by 2010, Nigeria's poverty rate was worse than it was under Sani Abacha's totalitarian rule. Unfortunately, Nigeria has successfully flipped the approximate ratio of poor people to non-poor from 30%:70% to 70%:30% in the space of three decades. By 2016, Nigeria's poverty rate stood at 68 per cent. Living on less than a dollar a day is the yardstick used in determining poverty.17

How do we explain that the foregoing has been able to show us that Nigeria is experiencing a period of the worst poverty rate in its history while the GDP per capita is saying that Nigerians have never been richer in its history than now? Let us examine government expenditure. Nigeria's recurrent expenditure has continued to increase. Our recurrent expenditure grew from 124 billion naira in 1996 to 4.178 trillion in 2016.18 During this same period, the cost of maintaining the government administration rose from 46 billion to 1.091 trillion naira. To put it into context, the amount spent on road and construction for the whole country was 98 billion naira in 2016. It had risen from 0.93 billion naira in 1996. If the government's recurrent expenditure is rising, it only makes sense that the national household incomes rises. Graph 4.4 below documents a rising consumer spending in the past decade.

This simply means that citizens now have more money to spend than they did in 2010. Thus, a rising poverty rate proves difficult to understand, except if money was concentrated amongst a few people rather than being used for the improvement of the lives of the masses.

Government expenditure is a key driver of the economy. It comprises recurrent expenditure and capital expenditure, along with debt servicing. Capital expenditure is the amount spent by the government on fixed assets whose useful life transcends the fiscal year. These include expenditures on buildings, equipment, roads and other infrastructure, whether tangible or intangible. On the other hand, recurrent expenditure refers to the payment for good, services, wages and subsidies. When a government is serious about development, it invests heavily in acquiring assets that can help it grow through capital expenditure.

Government expenditure has a direct influence on national income. Perhaps, an equitable distribution of income might bode well for the country. This is usually not the case. The uprisings of labor unions and persistent strike actions undermine the huge funds government allocates to paying salaries. If so much is spent on only wage bills, then persistent strikes based on non-payment of salaries should not be an occurrence. Capital and recurrent expenditure are meant to go hand-in-hand to improve the productivity of the economy. However, the increase in government spending has not led to a proportional improvement in the standard of living of the citizens.

Cost of Governance

Conceivably, one major reason recurrent expenditures continue to rise in Nigeria is the cost of governance. Cost of governance in Nigeria is easily one of the highest, when compared to cost of governance in other parts of the world. According to former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the House of Assembly, which consists less than 500 civil servants with 360 members of the House of Representatives and 109 members of Senate, enjoy 25 per cent of the government recurrent expenditure. Sanusi, speaking about the prospects for economic growth in the country, made the following remarks:

I have figures from the office of budget for the year 2010. Total government overhead is ₦536,268,049,280. Total overhead of the National Assembly is ₦136,259,768,112, which is exactly 25.1 per cent of federal government overhead. The overhead of the National Assembly as a percentage of the federal government budget in 2009 was 19.87 and in 2008 was 14.19.19

When questioned about his statement in a later interview, he said:

I think it was important for us to say what context that statement was made, I was giving a lecture on the growth prospect of the Nigerian economy, I talked about financial plans, economic policies, banking system and government finances and as the finance minister has mentioned, if you look at the structure of government financing especially in 2008 and 2009, we have had a rapid increase in recurrent expenditure and decline in capital expenditure. I was warning against this.20

When poverty rate continues to rise in a country where the citizens are perceived to be wealthy, there is a red flag. Nigeria must reduce its poverty rate amidst its rising per capita income in order to avert future agitations when citizens would begin to demand economic equity.

The Labour Market

While Nigeria has risen above its African counterparts in the size of its economies, several millions of its citizens are without jobs. Unemployment may have dropped since the sharp increase in 2010, but the numbers are beginning to go up again. This, together with underemployment, is a major contributor to Nigeria's poverty rate.

From Graph 4.5 above, we find that unemployment rose from 4 per cent in 2011 to 14 per cent in 2016. Nigeria's labor force stands at an estimated 60 million people. What this means is that, despite the boost in government expenditure over the years, jobs are not being created at any impressive rate. The private sector, in response to harsh economic times, has instead laid off 4.8 million workers between 2015 and 2017.21

While several organizations are simply unable to maintain their wage bills in the face of worsening economic climes, some have blamed the quality of the workforce. Companies believe many Nigerian graduates do not possess the right skills to bring value to their operations. When a company goes in search of new staff, it hopes that new staff can improve the quality and volume of work they do.

In a world where technology has transformed the way people conduct business in many spheres, companies seek graduates who have up-to-the-minute understanding of their jobs. Graduates are not all to blame, incessant strikes, outdated school curriculum, obsolete school facilities, poor funding and low exposure to professional practices are only some of the disadvantages the average undergraduate suffers throughout their stay in a typical Nigerian university. After such students leave school, they are ill-equipped to take on the responsibilities that come with the available jobs which, ordinarily, should require a minimum of tertiary education. Some companies go through the trouble of retraining new intakes, but several companies are not willing to spend more on individuals who are expected to immediately start adding value to them.

We thus find that the quality of the educational system has a direct impact on the quality of jobs that are available to Nigerian youths. If the government does not take significant steps towards revamping the educational sector, graduates will continue to find it difficult to fit into the labor market. They will eventually settle for jobs that are below their academic qualifications or pursue entirely different career paths that require less professional expertise. When a larger percentage of the labor force is under-skilled, the level of productivity of the labor force significantly drops and the economy barely reaches its full potential. Compared with US$19.68/hr in South Africa and US$29.34/hr in Turkey, the average productivity of a worker in Nigeria (US$3.24/hr) is very low.22 Nigeria needs to invest in quality education and skills acquisition training for undergraduates so as to increase the value they add to their new employers and to the economy at large. Available data from the World Bank reveals that Nigeria spends only 8 per cent of its expenditure on education, which is less than half of Iran's 19.4 per cent. Egypt spends 10.4 per cent of its expenditure on education while the Philippines expends 13 per cent of its budget on education.23 It is not surprising that Nigeria records the lowest literacy rate among the group. In 2015, Egypt had an adult literacy rate of 75 per cent, Iran recorded 87.2 per cent literacy, Philippines had 96.6 per cent literacy while Nigeria's literacy rate stood at 59.6 per cent.24

Quality education has the potential to drive people out of poverty and economically empower them—subsequently leading to growth and development of the nation's economy. The need for drastic changes to the educational sector becomes more urgent when we consider Nigeria's population growth rate (2.3 per cent) and the fact that Nigeria has the highest number of out-of-school children (OOSC) in the world.25

If the rising labor force is not equipped with the right skills to build a better economy, more people might fall below poverty lines. Focus must also be shifted from achieving mass education to attaining quality education. The government should seek to positively bridge the gap between the 'elite' schools and the public schools. Going into public-private partnerships might improve the status of public schools without jeopardizing the goal of providing low cost quality education. Job opportunities and wages people get are strongly a function of the schools people attend. Although attending a good school is not sufficient to improve wage structures, it contributes to it.

Tackling unemployment and subsequently poverty is hinged on providing a quality education system that prepares the labor force for the future world of work. However, another factor that is just as important is creating more places to employ this skilled labor force. Therefore, we look to our local production and manufacturing sector.

The Local Industries' Quagmires

Compared to Nigeria, the manufacturing sectors of other emerging economies contribute significantly to the GDP of their respective countries. Nigeria ranks the lowest when we compare the contribution of manufacturing to the GDP in the four countries being considered here. In Iran, manufacturing contributes 12.69 per cent of the GDP. In Egypt, the figure is 17.07 per cent, while 19.65 per cent obtains in the Philippines. Nigeria's manufacturing sector contributes only 8.76 per cent of the GDP.26

There are thirteen activities in Nigeria's Manufacturing sector as defined by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. The eleven activities publicly listed are: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and other manufacturing. All these provide opportunities for Nigeria to attain self-sufficiency in many areas of which export is a vital example. Even more, they can have a huge positive impact on the unemployment rate in the country.27

Nigeria's manufacturing industry is at the early stages of development. While the manufacturing industry had existed long before the independence of the country from the British, the industry is yet to fully develop. Nigeria's industrial production over the last ten years has tanked.

While we enjoyed a sharp improvement in 2011, the graph below shows that the growth rate is now below 2008 levels. This is a result of the recession which occurred in 2016.

Unfortunately, businesses in Nigeria do not enjoy the right facilities to enable their growth or protect them from oil price crash induced economic meltdowns. The cost of doing business in Nigeria is very high.28 Due to the lack of infrastructure, businesses have to provide for themselves amenities that ordinarily should be provided by the government. For example, a new business has to provide its own electricity, security, water and sometimes build its own road in order for it to thrive.

In 2016, several firms had to shut down their businesses.29 One of these firms is Erisco Foods Limited. The company shut down its ₦4 billion tomato paste processing plant in Lagos State. The company's President, Mr. Eric Umeofia, revealed that it closed down its 450,000 tonnes tomato plant and sacked 1,500 workers out of its 2,520 entire workforce and moved its operations to China.

Some other companies that left Nigeria, include Etisalat, Truworths, Sun International and Woolworths Holdings Ltd. Most of these companies had to leave due to the lack of the types of infrastructures that help businesses lower their cost structure and be more prepared for operation cost surprises, the type that is caused by fluctuating oil prices.30 When tyre companies, Dunlop and Michelin, left the shores of Nigeria about 10 years ago, it was because of Nigeria's collapsing infrastructure.31 How serious has the Nigerian government taken infrastructural development?

If we examine the budgeted capital expenditure of Nigeria in comparison with the recurrent expenditure, we will realize how well Nigerian leaders have approached the need for infrastructural development. Right at the start of the Fourth Republic, the gap between Nigeria's recurrent expenditure and capital expenditure started to widen. For a country that had a history of mismanagement, under utilization of resources and perennial underachievement, investing in infrastructure seemed the obvious direction towards building a sustainable and efficient economy. However, year after year, the government continued to allocate a higher chunk of money to paying wages.

Relative to Nigeria's capital investment, which is 15 per cent of the GDP, Iran has a capital investment of 36.54 per cent. The Philippines and Egypt have closer figures to Nigeria, pulling 24.38 per cent and 14.28 per cent respectively.32

Asides poor infrastructural development, there are many other ills besieging the Nigerian business environment, making it hostile to local production. One is the high interest rates. The graph above reflects how interest rates have been rising since 2008. Nigeria currently maintains a high interest rate, which makes businesses less willing to borrow. High interest rates and low interest rates are neither good nor bad. Both are tools used by the Central Bank to presumably stabilize the economy. When the apex bank maintains a high interest rate, it leads to slower economic growth but can help curtail inflation. On the other hand, low interest rates lead to faster economic growth but can have high inflationary impact. However, the lack of infrastructure to help businesses cut down on several production costs means that when interest rates are set high, it may have a contravening impact on the economy by both slowing down the economy and enhancing inflation. This is because it becomes a major burden for non-performing loans, especially for small enterprises. If the government is serious about its bid to improve local production, small enterprises should be able to access low interest credit facilities. If small enterprises find it difficult to produce at low cost, importation will increase which will have a drastic effect on our dire foreign reserve and strain the naira-to-dollar exchange rate. In addition to that, the economy suddenly becomes even more susceptible to oil price fluctuations.

When the cost of production is high, manufacturers end up passing that cost to consumers as well as borrowers. In the case where businesses spend more on any of these facilities, inflation sets in, as the cost of products automatically increase without a corresponding increase in value. Sometimes, when businesses decide not to increase prices, they reduce the size or quality of the product, thus infiltrating the market with inferior products. This is unsurprising as they must survive in a very harsh economy.

This is why when more risks are piled upon these aforementioned harsh conditions (e.g. a worsening currency), foreign investors who have the capacity to leave, quickly exit and find better places to thrive. In 2017, Etisalat Nigeria, one of Nigeria's foremost telecommunication companies exited the Nigerian market. Several other reputable companies had left in 2016 too as the Nigerian economy shrank.

The nature of rising inflation rate as shown in Graph 4.8 above made the response of the government seem antithetical to growth. While local enterprises still grappled with poor infrastructure, the drop in oil price was responsible for the fall of the price of the naira against the dollar, which automatically jacked up the cost of imported products.

The nation ranked at 169 out of 190 countries in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index in 2016.33 This means that it remains difficult to run a business in Nigeria because of the constraints that come with getting electricity, getting credit, registering a property, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency, and dealing with construction permits, to mention just a few. Added to these is the issue of an unresponsive and unreliable legal system, which is unable to protect businesses and their investors. Since the commencement of the index by the World Bank, Nigeria's Ease of Doing business has dropped by almost 50 places. The country ranked 120 in 2008 but has now slipped to 169 at the turn of the first decade of the 21st Century.34

When the cost of products continues to rise and businesses find it difficult to survive, the average citizen has fewer opportunities to thrive and must serve the big few who are able to manoeuvre their way in the economy because of their deep pockets or their ability to explore political connections. This may be taken for granted when there is steady growth in the economy. When there are economic shocks, it means a large portion of the country will be left unprotected and without the financial means to survive. This is when the repercussions will be felt. Agitations that might ensue during periods like this may throw the country into chaos. This played out in 2012 as the Occupy Nigeria protests ensued when the government removed subsidy from PMS and allowed prices to skyrocket without prior warning.

To build a sustainable economy, a country should enable local enterprises to thrive while also encouraging trade with other nations. We have discussed how government spending affects the local industries and we will discuss government policies later in this chapter. We have also looked at how infrastructural development may have significant impact on the development of an economy and the country's industries. Will any of these indicators change in the near future? Will government continue to focus on putting the private enterprise in charge of the economic affairs of the country without providing the right infrastructure for them to thrive? What happens if government cuts down on recurrent expenditure in the face of frequent strike actions where workers demand for higher salaries and allowances across different public sectors? What does the future hold for Nigeria's oil and import dependent economy? How well is the non-oil economy bracing up for an imminent transition?

Government Policies

One important thing to look out for when studying the economic trends of a government is government policies. At the turn of the millennium, new President, Olusegun Obasanjo, had the difficult task of reviving an economy that was on its way down. Per capita income in 1997, two years to the transition to civilian rule, was 240 dollars, which was below the 1960 value. Half of the population lived in extreme poverty, infant mortality rate stood at 84 deaths in 1,000 births and life expectancy was 52 years.

Coupled with the mismanagement of funds and corruption that characterized the military rule, the economy was over-regulated and there was a large fiscal deficit. The fiscal balance had depreciated to a deficit of ₦256 billion in 1998 from an overall surplus of ₦35 billion in 1997. There were fuel and power shortages, a robust yet inefficient civil service, and a rising economic debt that was more than US$28.8 billion in 1998. This situation was worsened by the sharp decline in oil prices, which ensured the oil revenue of the country declined by ₦123 billion (4 per cent of GDP). Subsequently, inflation rose to about 15 per cent by December 1998.35

The new government had to reverse the direction in which the economy was heading. The Obasanjo-led government instituted several policies to drive the reformation of the economy and create better standard of living for Nigerians. The government's program focused on private sector development as a key driver of economic growth. However, its policies were also strongly for social welfare reforms rather than capital reforms. This influenced the government's decision to initiate projects like Anti-Poverty Scheme, Family Economic Advancement, Vocational Skill Development, National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP) and the Rural Employment Promotion Programme. While doing this, the government cut back on government capital outlay and sought to increase interest rate from 13 per cent to 14.5 per cent. The government envisaged a rise in the oil revenue, which eventually happened. Oil price enjoyed a steady rise until the crash in 2016. The government's poor plan for capital expenditures ensured that the boom amounted to little sustainable development.

Government's focus on improving citizen welfare is laudable. However, on the back of massive privatization and deregulation, cutting back on capital expenditure and raising interest rates seemed antithetical. For a country that had a history of poor infrastructural development, the government was presented with an excellent opportunity to build the right foundations to help sustain the economy. While welfare interventions help bide the time, to build an economy that is absorbent of shocks, businesses need the right infrastructure to thrive. Obasanjo's second regime was not any different. The government's economic plan was called National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS).36 The goal of the framework was wealth creation, poverty alleviation and employment generation. While the government continued in its bid to privatize and deregulate as many public holdings as possible, infrastructural development was not gaining any significant momentum. Power supply remained erratic, the country still depended on fuel importation and several social infrastructures like hospitals, schools and roads did not enjoy major improvements.

Yet there were quick wins for the government in the first regime of the fourth republic. The GDP growth rate increased. We can connect this with the rise in oil prices, which continued steadily until 2016. If you compare the rise and fall in the GDP growth rate with the annual crude oil prices, you will notice they follow similar trends. A fall in oil price usually causes a subsequent drop in the GDP growth rate. Oil prices in the world market, a statistic which Nigeria has almost no control over, is very critical to our GDP growth performance.

In 1999, Nigeria enjoyed a paltry growth rate of 0.5 per cent. We reached a peak growth rate of 33.7 per cent in 2004, but things quickly stabilized afterwards and we maintained an average of 6 per cent growth rate. Overall, Nigeria's fortunes have improved since 1999.37

Despite the many hiccups that the nation's economy suffered, Nigerians have continued to get richer since 1999. When Obasanjo took to the podium to give his acceptance speech in 1999, the GDP per capita was 275 dollars. This had risen to 2,178 dollars in 2017, according to the World Bank.38 The U.S. dollar experienced an average inflation rate of 2.17% per year between 1999 and 2016.39 This means that 275 dollars when valued today will be an estimated 396 dollars. Thus, we can infer that prosperity of Nigerians has been on a steady growth. A Nigerian in 2017 is better off than one in 1999. This is a remarkable improvement when compared with the pre-1999 era. After the 1981 recession, Nigerians began to get poorer year after year. Starting at 874 dollars per capita in 1980, Nigerians ebbed at 153 dollars per capita in 1993.40 This was one of the lowest points in the economic history of Nigerians. Yet, the rise in the cost of living undermines this otherwise exciting statistic. A truly prosperous country keeps its cost of living low while enriching its citizens. Although Nigeria's GDP per capita growth is remarkable, it is not a proper representation of the personal income of the citizens. Thus, GDP per capita reflects the wealth of a country, but not its citizens. When compared, Nigeria's 2,178 dollars pales against the 15,800 dollars average GDP per capita of the world. There is still much work to be done, but there is a glimmer of hope that we are growing.

Another win for the government was the enactment of the Pension Act.41 Before 1999, retirement for many people, whether in the public or private sector, was death before death. It was a period of poverty awaiting workers. Workers feared to leave employment and this was understandable. Pensioners lived miserable lives. At the end of their careers, they found it difficult to enjoy any retirement benefits. Retirees were left to queue at state secretariats, hoping endlessly to be paid. Most were owed several months in arrears. Until 2003, when the Pension Act was enacted, pensioners had difficulty receiving their pension at the right time and this automatically heightened the poverty rate. The new policy stipulates that an employee and his/her employer will contribute a certain percentage of the employee's wages to a pension account managed by a commission consultant throughout the period the employee and employer remain in contract. This initiative helped retirees gain access to sustained income after their service years. Aside from its immediate effect of placating the suffering meted out on retirees, it went a long way in reducing pension-related corruption. Retirees can now age gracefully at the end of their demanding jobs.

The deregulation of the telecommunications sector is arguably one of Obasanjo's successful home runs. He did not try to hide the fact that his government pursued full deregulation and privatization. Before the privatization and deregulation of government owned enterprises, the government had invested more than 100 billion dollars in different commercial enterprises between 1973 and 1999. Sooner than later, these enterprises became hotbeds of inefficiency, corruption and mismanagement. Most were unproductive and the dwindling oil revenue meant that the government found it difficult to maintain all these enterprises effectively. The Bureau of Public Enterprises estimates that between 1992 and 1999, public enterprises consumed an average US$3 billion per year in direct and indirect subsidies. In addition to being financial sinkholes, public enterprises were unable to pay workers' wages and owed pension payments to the tune of 8.3 million dollars (1 trillion naira) in 2003.42

The telecommunication industry move was well executed. Before the coming of the new network providers, Nigerian telecommunications company (NITEL) had, over 50 years, been able to provide only 450,000 landlines by 1999. The National Communications Commission (NCC) was created and the government opened up digital mobile licenses for auction. MTN, Econet and MTEL became the first three major network providers and in only four years they had connected about 38 million people. By 2010, that number had climbed to 85 million users. The newly reformed industry created more than 5 million jobs, both directly and indirectly. When the government eventually put up NITEL for sale, both local and foreign investors were unable to revive it anymore.43

When Umaru Musa Yar'adua took over from Olusegun Obasanjo, he rolled out a 7-point agenda. The agenda focused on development in Food Security, Security, Education, Power and Energy, Transportation, Wealth Creation and Land Reforms. Yar'adua's tenure was short-lived as he died in office.44 Nonetheless, there was little progress made to improve the country's infrastructure or social amenities. Just a year after President Yar'adua became president, the world was hit by a global financial crisis that had originated from the crash of the United State Housing Market. Despite the reverberating shock that the economic crisis caused in several economies, Nigeria maintained a growth rate above 6 per cent, which was higher than the world average. This happened because the Nigerian economy was not quite integrated with the global financial market like many advanced countries; and, oil price was also on a steady rise during the period. The Nigerian economy witnessed an eventual crash due to the drop in oil price by the end of 2008.

The increase in oil price was a result of an ongoing in the Middle East. The raging Iraqi war that lasted between 2003 and 2011 ensured that the access to oil worldwide was limited. This meant that countries like Nigeria, the eighth largest producer of oil in the world, could enjoy higher prices as long as the war lasted and Iraq oil export remained low.45 Between 1999 and 2008, Nigeria's oil production increased four times to 2.5 million barrels per day.46 Thus, the economic crisis was initially buffered by the concurrent crisis in the Middle East. However, immediately the price of oil dropped, the Nigerian stock market crashed, taking along the banking sector. The Nigerian economy suffered during the 2008 global financial crisis, although to a lesser extent, compared to the European and Asian economies.

Trouble brewed when the oil price, which stood at $147 per barrel in July 2008, fell to $50 per barrel in November, a value which was below the $58 per barrel oil-price benchmark for the 2008 budget (See Graph 4.2). The difficulties that hit the Nigerian capital market, the spike in inflation rate from 6 to 15 per cent, and the blows suffered by Nigerian banks, were tied more to the fall in oil price than the global economic crisis. Had relative oil scarcity been maintained during this period, Nigeria would have rode on the high oil prices through the economic crisis. While Nigeria may be absorbent to such global economic shocks, its over-reliance on oil, a volatile market as the shock absorber, is too delicate.

Perhaps, Yar'adua's biggest contribution to the economy was that he ensured that Nigeria could continue to milk the cow of the Niger-Delta. His ingenious approach to solving the Niger-Delta crisis helped Nigeria maintain a respectable level of oil production and exportation. Notably, he kick-started important projects in the Nigerian railway sector: Abuja metro line, Abuja-Kaduna rail and the Abuja-Kano rail. Asides these, his seven point agenda barely took off and did not score any major impact before his demise. The amnesty program in the South South helped ensure Nigeria's crude oil production rate stabilized. However, militants still loomed in the Niger-Delta and they resumed attacks on oil pipelines in 2016, contributing to the worsening of the economy.

President Goodluck Jonathan's efforts were summarized in the Transformation Agenda. Jonathan had first succeeded the late Umaru Musa Yar'adua and then successfully won the following election in 2011. His Transformation Agenda was the first public framework that clearly identified infrastructure development as a key component for growth. Telecommunications wise, the cost of broadband experienced a 63 per cent drop and broadband speed was enhanced. The speed of broadband connection increased by over 680% between 2011 and 2014.47 The Jonathan administration also worked to build a healthy banking system through Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. However, when Sanusi began to question the financial integrity of the administration, he was relieved of his duties. The Jonathan administration advanced work on the railways and began rehabilitation of major roads. Yet, all these were a far cry from what Nigeria's economy needed to enhance the standard of living of the average citizen.

Buhari's government had barely started when it was saddled with the responsibility of taking Nigeria out of an economic recession, a task it successfully completed. However, by the time the recession ended and the economy stabilized, about 4 million people had lost their jobs and several companies had exited the Nigerian market.48

The effectiveness of the government in implementing its policies contributes to the economic development of the country. The graph below examines how effective Nigeria has been on a scale of -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong). The graph, on government effectiveness, clearly indicates that Nigeria needs to do more than formulate economic policies, but must work equally hard to implement them.

One consistent intention of all governments since 1999 has been to shift the economic development of the country unto the shoulders of the private sector, in addition to protecting the country's prized oil wells. This is the right approach. In fact, looking at how irresponsible the government has been in managing public enterprises, it is an excellent initiative for them to take their hands off commercial entities. However, a well-developed private sector-driven economy can only be fostered by putting in place appropriate and sustainable infrastructure and strong institutions. The government has failed to record key improvements in energy supply, power, transport, ease of doing business, education and technology. All of these are foundations and drivers of an advanced economy. The government's inability to provide these structures undermines its effort to boost the economy appreciably through privatization. The government's privatization moves only begin to yield positive results when it creates an enabling environment for businesses to thrive.

The Nigerian government is motivated to hands off as many public enterprises as possible. The removal of subsidy on oil and the privatization of electricity distribution companies also show that the government is more willing to allow the market determine prices and set service and product standards, with less government interference. If the government supports this initiative by providing the right amenities for growth, then the economy will become more stable, enjoy admirable growth and absorb a larger share of the labor force.

Contributions from the Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector provides more capacity to employ citizens than the oil sector. The effect of the non-oil sector on the GDP was eventually re-evaluated when the rebasing of the economy was done in 2013. Although this has very little to do with the economic situation of the country, it was important to estimate the real contribution of the non-oil sector to the GDP. After the re-benchmarking exercise, Nigeria rose to become the largest economy in Africa, upstaging Egypt and South Africa. It also became the 20th largest economy in the world. By 2013, Nigeria's GDP rose from about USD 270 billion to USD 510 billion.

Notably, the contribution of the non-oil sector rose. According to the projections of revenue generation in 2016, non-oil revenue is expected to provide about 50 per cent of the total revenue.49 It is important to appreciate how much the non-oil sector has grown to support the economy. The reason this contribution is undermined is that the country is still import dependent. This means that inflation will always be imported as soon as oil prices depreciate. Oil revenue contributes most to our foreign exchange. Thus, the effect of oil prices can only be diminished if non-oil products reduce the share of oil in our export net. To build a sustainable economy, Nigeria must aggressively pursue moves that improve the volume of non-oil export.

Nigeria's Agricultural Sector

We have discussed the local production sector earlier and what decisions we would need to make to determine its direction over the next decades. One particularly important sector is Agriculture. Agriculture contributes 26 per cent of Nigeria's GDP and is responsible for most of the remaining 10 per cent non-oil foreign revenue earnings. This sector used to employ the largest share of the labor force with most of its workers being under-educated.

The Nigerian agricultural sector, after several years of neglect and surface patronage by politicians, has begun to pick up again. The graph below studies the productivity of each worker in the agricultural sector over three decades. Productivity is measured as the value added per worker in the agricultural sector in Nigeria. A higher number means that the average employed person produces more output. The agricultural sector is now more productive than it has been in recent history. This is connected to government's resilience in bringing agriculture to the fore again. Although improvement has been slow, it is impressive nonetheless. Each government has introduced one agricultural program or the other. Some of them are: National Accelerated Food Production Programme (NAFPP) of 1972; Agricultural Development Projects (ADP) of 1974 and 1989; Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) of 1976; River Basin Development Authorities (RBDAs) of 1976; and, Green Revolution (GR) of 1980. Others include Directorate for Food Roads and Rural Infrastructure (DFRRI) of 1986; Better Life Programme (BLP) for rural women (1986); National Agricultural Land Development Authority (NALDA) of 1992; World Bank supported National Fadama Development Project (NFDP) of 1990s; and, Root and Tuber Expansion Programme (RTEP) of 2003 amidst others. Several governments have come up with one initiative or the other to foster crop and livestock farming in Nigeria. There is still a long a way for the country to go in order to produce enough food to sustain the country while having enough to export.

Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina's intervention added to the many projects that the government put in place to facilitate the agricultural sector. Dr. Adesina, who served under President Jonathan, worked to dissolve the bureaucratic bottlenecks in the process of getting agricultural input to farmers through the e-wallet for farmers. His reforms, while he served as the Minister of Agriculture, attracted 5.6 billion dollars in private sector investments towards food production, leading to an increase in food production by 21 million metric tonnes.50 The Nigerian government continues to pursue agricultural reforms with renewed optimism, creating more opportunities to thrive. However, the lack of continuity can hurt their good intentions. All governments have introduced new schemes to help the agricultural sector; barely any of these reforms was continued by succeeding administrations. While the agricultural sector continues to enjoy steady growth, as can be seen in the graphs below, if the government wants to harness this sector, then encouraging industries that can convert these agricultural produce into processed products becomes important.

The Rise of the ICT and Telecommunications Sector

Other non-oil sectors are gradually picking up. The emergence of the telecommunications and ICT sector, for example, are beginning to attract foreign direct investment. More people are being trained in computer programming skills with which they can serve both local and foreign clients. The ICT sector now contributes about 11 per cent of the GDP.51 The industry has the capacity to increase both its contribution to the GDP and government revenue.

One inspiring story is that of Andela which received a 24 million dollar funding from Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg. This has led to other multimillion-dollar investments in Nigerian tech companies since 2015.52 The community of tech enthusiasts continues to grow and the government has begun to create initiatives to support and foster the development of this sector. Other notable companies that have received funding from foreign investors include Paga, Hotels.ng, Iroko, Jobberman, BudgIT, and Flutterwave. A new crop of tech companies are launching and incubation hubs where young Nigerians can work on their tech projects are continuously proliferating all over the country. These hubs isolate young entrepreneurs and tech workers from their immediate communities by providing internet, workspace and power supply services at affordable rates. New events and communities have sprung up to support this growing trend. More young Nigerians now look in this direction for the future of their work. Even children, as young as 10, are now taught programming skills. If things continue at this rate, a large amount of young Nigerians will become experts in building tech programs in the near future. If we take a cue from California, home of Silicon Valley, and its unprecedented growth, then we can better understand the potentials that lie in the rising tech industry in Nigeria. California, built upon the tech industry and with a GDP of 2.5 trillion dollars, is the sixth largest economy in the world.53 It is bettered only by United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, China and the United States. While our current education system and poor infrastructural development will ensure our growth is stunted, we can still look out for a significant boost in the economy of the country over the next decade through this industry.

For this industry to thrive, the government has to be wary of putting in place stringent regulations that can impede its growth. Since Nigeria regulated drone technology in 2016, little progress has been made in that sector of the tech industry. Just like other sectors of the economy, the tech industry needs the government to fulfill its role of providing an enabling environment in order for it to reach its full potential. It also needs less government interference. Perhaps this is why the tech industry is currently concentrated in Lagos state, which provides relatively the best environment for the industry to thrive. The government can choose to burden this industry with regulations, as evident when it enforced regulations against the flying of drones, or pursue purposeful partnerships similar to Akwa Ibom government's partnership with Hotels.ng to foster technology development in the state.

Can our financial institutions support our economic growth? One of the most important pillars of a stable economy is a stable financial sector. Nigeria's weak financial institutions were laid bare when in 2008, the banking sector in America sparked a financial crisis that eventually led to a global recession. This crisis ricocheted into the Nigerian banking sector and the Nigerian stock market. The stock market declined by 70 per cent between 2008 and 2009 while the Central Bank of Nigeria had to replace the management of eight banks and inject 680 billion naira of liquidity to save the banks.

Before the crash, the banking sector was packed with poor corporate governance and weak financial structures. Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi in a speech titled "The Nigerian Banking Industry: what went wrong and the way forward" recounted what led to the banking sector collapse:

Banking sector activity closely mirrored the price of oil and its volatility. As amounts held in Nigerian deposits increased, banks were able to increase their lending. Consolidation in the domestic banking sector and along with abundant capital increased the speed of credit creation. Bank deposits and credit, tracking the price of oil, grew four-fold from 2004 to 2009 and banking assets grew on average at 76% per annum since consolidation. There was a belief that financialization would drive economic growth. However, the reality is more complex. While many developing countries have followed this path, Nigeria's financialization was far too rapid for the real economy to benefit. The economy was not able to absorb of the excess liquidity from oil revenues and foreign investments in productive sectors. This resulted in significant flows to non-priority sectors and to the capital markets, mostly in the form of margin loans and proprietary trading camouflaged as loans. As a result, market capitalisation of the NSE increased by 5.3 times between 2004 and its peak in 2007, and the market capitalisation of bank stocks increased by 9 times during the same period. This set the stage for a financial asset bubble particularly in bank stocks. The rapid rise in asset prices and the over concentration of bank shares in the stock market index were clear indications of an accident waiting to happen. Instead of raising concern among regulators, these developments were cheered by most, and voices of protest were waved aside with arrogance. In 2007, the Nigerian Stock Exchange was 'the best performing' bourse in the world even though there was no evidence to suggest a commensurate improvement in the fundamentals of real sector corporations.54

Despite warnings by staff of the NDIC and the CBN, no action was taken. The government uses the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which has the superior regulatory power, the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Company (NDIC), and external auditors (EA) to regulate and supervise the Banking sector. How did banks get themselves into the financial bubble? Governor Sanusi highlighted several reasons, but asides the dominance of oil on every part of the Nigerian economy, weak corporate governance appeared prime. Bank CEOs had overbearing control over the banks and used special purpose vehicles to siphon money by lending money to themselves for stock price manipulation or to acquire personal assets. Some converted their non-performing loans into commercial papers and bank acceptances and set up off-balance-sheet special purpose vehicles to hide losses. Banks colluded among themselves to enhance artificial financial positions and stock prices. Sanusi, later in his speech, named a familiar culprit that contributed to the non-standard banking practices—lack of infrastructure and poor business environment.

Weak legal systems ensured that banks were unable to prosecute defaulting borrowers within sensible time frame and since borrowers knew this, they abused the system. This led to higher rates of non-performing loans. The Nigerian legal system is critical to the growth of the Nigerian banking sector. Sadly, the legal system continues to be one of the worst run in the world. A survey on rule of law by World Justice Project in 2015 rated Nigeria 96th out of 102 countries.55

The CBN managed to stabilize the banking sector after purging it of its poisonous leaderships. This body, along with NDIC, is key in keeping banks healthy. Asides corporate governance and government policy, the performance of non-performing loans is a fundamental metric to watch.

The percentage of non-performing loans in Nigeria reflects the health of the banking system. When there is a higher per cent of non-performing loans, it means banks are finding it hard to collect principal and interest on their credits. When these become uncontrollable, the concerned banks record losses and are forced to close down. The banking crisis of 2009 is reflected in Graph 4.12 above on Nigeria's non-performing loans. What is worrisome is that the rates are beginning to rise again. If this trend continues, Nigeria should get set for another financial crisis in the banking sector. However, if this is quickly controlled, perhaps by lowering interest rates, improving the legal system or proper supervision of banks, the rates will stabilize and the banks will remain healthy. When banks are forced to close down, depositors and investors lose their monies at unprecedented rates. Although the NDIC will seek to compensate them, the compensations are most times much lower than what depositors lose.

Reporting from the Financial Stability Report (FSR) released by the Central Bank of Nigeria in early 2017, Daily Times has revealed that the banking industry's total credit by sector shows that oil & gas sector constituted 29.59 per cent of total banking industry credit. Others include manufacturing, general commerce, government and others, which constituted 13.41, 8.71, 6.25, 8.34 and 33.70 per cent respectively in 2016.56 When the oil sector is affected by global crash in oil prices, as it so often happens, it means borrowers will be unable to pay their debt, thus increasing the non-performing loans rate over time. This further buttresses the point on how much our economy is tied to the oil industry.

The non-performing loans ratio hit 14 per cent in 2016, much higher than the regulatory limit of 5 per cent. In real figures, banks were finding it difficult to retrieve more than 2 trillion naira from its debtors. It had risen from ₦649.63bn at end of December 2015, to ₦1.679tn by the end of June 2016.57 Nigeria needs to keep its banking sector healthy. A healthy banking sector has a direct effect in the economy as a provider of credit. Without bank loans, many businesses might find it difficult to survive. Therefore, to maintain responsible credit facilities, we need to ensure our banks remain healthy.

Policies of Taxation

One common way governments generate revenue is through taxation. An optimum taxation level means the government is getting the right amount of money to develop the country without impeding the growth of its contributors. Governments can also reduce their dependency on sale of natural resources if inhabitants of the country contribute to the development of the country.

Nigeria's tax net consists of Company Income Tax, Petroleum Profits Tax, Value Added Tax (VAT) Personal Income Tax (PIT), Withholding Tax (WHT), Education Tax (EDT) and Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Despite all these avenues to harness tax revenue, Nigeria has a low tax to GDP ratio. Taxes collected in Nigeria amount to about 7% of the GDP in comparison to an average of 20% common in emerging market economies.

According to Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun, only 20 per cent of the Nigerian labor force pays taxes. That is, 14 million out of 70 million economically active citizens pay their taxes.58 Many people instead settle for VAT, which is charged over products they buy. At 5%, Nigeria charges low VAT. Compare this with South Africa that operates 14 per cent, Namibia 15%, Mozambique 17% and finally Rwanda 18%. The International Monetary Fund even recommended that Nigeria should increase its VAT to 7.5% for the sake of its economy.59

The Nigerian government is saddled with the responsibility of increasing the tax base by ensuring all entities eligible to pay taxes pay. Without the guaranteed income from taxes, Nigeria continues to be susceptible to the fluctuations in the oil market. However, the Nigerian tax system is laced with many problems which include poor tax administration, lack of statistical data, multiplicity of taxes and increase in black economy.

Would we say Nigerians are unaware of their tax responsibilities? Definitely not. Many Nigerian companies pay their taxes and that of their employees. However, many others do not. Companies who are not in any immediate danger of losing their businesses if they do not pay taxes usually do not. This is due to the following: Nigerians do not trust the government to use their money judiciously; and, the Nigerian government has made it difficult to pay taxes and get clearances.

Nigerians generally have low confidence in the government. Therefore, when they have the chance, they withhold money from the government because they fear it will be mismanaged or stolen. Citizens believe that if the government makes judicious use of its current resources, then they can be entrusted with more. Why pay the government, when citizens finance most of the amenities they use?

On the other hand, tax administration in Nigeria is poor. Citizens generally find it difficult to remit their taxes due to the inefficient structure of revenue collecting agencies, both at the federal and state levels. However, the government has started taking taxation seriously and rolled out reforms. In 2008, tax reforms introduced the Tax Identification Number (TIN), which helps the government track individuals and their tax records. In 2017, the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) introduced six online solutions to facilitate tax payment. These solutions are: e-registration, payment of stamp duties, payment of taxes, receiving of electronic receipt after payment of taxes, filing tax returns online and online Tax Clearance Certificates (TCC) through electronic Tax Clearance Certificate.60 The government does not need to review tax rates, it only needs to improve tax compliance and it has started doing that gradually. Between 2000 and 2015, tax revenue collected by the FIRS increased from 455 billion naira in 2000 to over 3 trillion naira in 2015.61 It peaked at 5 trillion naira in 2012. This represents a growing trend in tax administration in Nigeria. With the innovations put in place to facilitate remittance of taxes, the government can achieve its aim of accruing 28 trillion naira in tax collection annually by 2025.62

If the government is also more efficient in spending and increases its public investment and infrastructural development, it will gain the confidence of the people. This will make them more confident while paying taxes.

How Viable Are the State Governments?

The dependence of most Nigerian states on the federal government to finance their budgets weighs the central government down. This slows down the progress of the country. Very few states generate enough money to cater to their needs and instead resort to borrowing. Nigerian states depend on the government to finance about 50 per cent of their budget or more. Most states can barely stand alone without the support of the Federal Government. Lagos leads other states by a significant margin. Its internally generated revenue in 2016 was approximately 301 billion naira. The state did better than 30 states combined. Economic Confidential, a financial magazine, released its Annual State Viability Index (ASVI) to examine the viability of each state. According to index, Lagos and Ogun are the only states that generate more than their allocations from the Federation Account by 169% and 127% respectively. The next state, Rivers State, comes at a distant 63% at 85 billion naira. About 20 state governments generate less than 10 billion naira in the whole year and 14 states were bound for insolvency without constant intervention from the federal government allocation.63

Since the start of Muhammadu Buhari's government, states have received 1.75 trillion naira in bailout funds.64 Many states had to borrow to pay the salaries of their workers. When some states received the bailout fund, they proceeded to use the money purposes entirely different from that which the funds were released. If the federal government is making progress, the same cannot be said of state governments and local governments. Only Lagos State has shown signs of being healthy. Few states have experienced a steady growth in revenue. Most keep fluctuating around the same levels. Perhaps a restructuring of the country to push states to be more independent, as it applies in the United States of America, can stimulate development in those states. The structure of Nigeria, which is centralized, supports state growth; but it can also make states so comfortable that they neglect their responsibility of seeking financial freedom.

Restructuring may include allowing state governments explore the mining industry. The mining industry is undermined by its centralized structure, a structure that ensures taxes and royalties accrue to the federal government. This discourages state governments from pursuing mining activities in their respective states. Different states contain different solid minerals and their respective governments may be in the best position to facilitate the mining of these minerals. If the federal government allows states to mine the solid minerals in their states and keep most of the revenue, it will contribute more to the internally generated revenue of each state and will reduce their dependence on the federal government. The current arrangement, where the federal government largely controls all mineral deposits beneath the soil, may be detrimental to the economic growth of the states. Decentralization will boost the activities in each of these economies and will force most states to move towards financial independence. However, as long as the government continues to spoon-feed these governments, growth will be limited, especially when the leaders leading such states are not motivated.

Due to the pressure on the government, the federal government may be tempted to borrow so as to sustain the economy. In 2016, 18 per cent, Nigeria's debt to GDP fared better than most, however in 2008, the debt to GDP ratio was at a record low of 7.30 per cent. Nigeria's debt level is still low, but it has begun to rise again. It must be kept low in order to avoid any strain on future fiscal plans. High debt levels have negative effects on the economy.

Despite being in a relative debt-safe zone, Nigeria's bond yield rates are rising (see Graph 4.13 below). This means that the country will borrow at high interest rates since lenders believe the country is a high-risk investment. This is not unconnected with the 2016 recession. Lenders who give money to the government at this point want high returns for their money due to the situation of the economy. Bond yields will continue to rise until the economy stabilizes over a long period. Falling bond rates is good for the government as it means the government can now borrow money cheaply for public investment. A favorable future will see the bond rates drop while Nigeria will take advantage of its low debt-to-GDP to borrow some money to boost the economy and build infrastructure.

Another thing to note is the increase in the foreign exchange reserve of Nigeria. Although this depleted below the 2009 level, it appreciated to 30 billion dollars in 2017. The highest since the economic recession in 2016. Nigeria's savings to GDP has declined. According to a 2016 International Monetary Fund Data, Nigeria's savings-to-GDP ratio stands in the region of 13.53%. This is lower than the ratio for Iran (37.45 per cent). Egypt ranks lower at 9.43% while the Philippines sits slightly above us at 23.79%.65 A rise in the savings ratio can have a very significant impact on economic activity. Higher savings can help countries finance higher levels of investment and boost productivity over long-term periods. Although very high rates of saving can also signify a recession as citizens are unwilling to spend and save instead.

The Bane of Corruption

I chose to discuss corruption separately because it transcends all parts of the Nigerian economy and continues to undermine our growth. Transparency International scores Nigeria 28/100 in perceived level of public sector corruption, where zero indicates "highly corrupt" and 100 indicates "very clean".66

When one considers that Nigeria had scored 6.5/100 (see Graph 4.14 above) about two decades ago, then we might begin to appreciate that Nigeria is slowly winning the war against corruption. Transparency International recently left the country out of the top ten most corrupt countries in the world and now ranks Nigeria 138 out of 175 countries in the Corruption Index. Nigeria had consistently been in the top ten for over a decade.67

However, corruption still thrives in Nigeria. Economists at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) projected that Nigeria can surpass annual GDP of 500 Billion dollars by 2030 if it combats corruption to a minimal level.68 In 2016, Nigeria's information minister announced that government funds to the tune of 6.8 billion dollars were stolen by public office holders between 2006 and 2013. The new government proclaimed its fight against corruption in 2015 at the commencement of the administration. Two anti-corruption agencies, ICPC and EFCC, were strengthened to combat corruption in both public and private sectors. In 2017, the government passed the whistle blower act to allow citizens uncover acts of corruption without victimization. The whistle-blower policy led to the recovery of over 151 million dollars 69 stashed away in different houses, including $9.8million recovered from ex-NNPC Group Managing Director, Andrew Yakubu.70. Such discoveries are a rarity within the country. The citizens are certain about their claims that politicians embezzle money, that corruption remains prevalent and that looters usually make away with their money. The recent discoveries do not mean that the country is winning its war in mitigating the menace of stolen funds, yet it is a ray of hope in the otherwise gloomy cloud of the future of accountability.

Nigeria needs to continue on this upward trajectory in combating corruption. A strong justice system, the absence of which continues to be the bane of Nigeria's progress, is required to speed up the fight against corruption. So far, despite myriad accusations and arrests, court processes have slowed down corruption cases. Justice delayed is justice denied. Very few high profile cases have been completed since 1999. Without strong legal institutions, anti-corruption agencies will continue to make a mockery of themselves and the fight against corruption will continue to hit brick walls.

Nigeria's economy continues to grow stronger with policies from governments since 1999. However, this is not reflected in the living standards of the people who continue to experience steep inflation, high interest rates and unemployment. For a favorable future, the Nigerian government must unhinge the nation's economy from the whims and caprices of the oil sector, efficiently diversify the economy to spread risks across different sectors, build a strong banking system, reduce corruption, increase its tax base and build strong institutions and infrastructure to support the growth it desires. Most of all, the Nigerian government must ensure that the wealth of the country reflects in the living standard of all citizens.

Chapter Five

A Country At Discomfort With Itself: Balkanization, Confederacy Or Reallocation?

All peoples shall have the right to existence. They shall have the unquestionable and inalienable right to self-determination. They shall freely determine their political status and shall pursue their economic and social development according to the policy they have freely chosen.

-Article 20, African Charter on Human and Peoples' Right1

There is a trend of growing dissent about the unity of Nigeria. Some pundits have called for the balkanization of Nigeria, some a confederacy, while others just want a restructuring that will pursue equality and a better standard of living for Nigerians. Amidst all these, the singular blockade to the country seeking a referendum is the preamble to the amended 1999 Constitution of Nigeria which declares: "We the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Having firmly and solemnly resolved, to live in unity and harmony as one indivisible and indissoluble sovereign nation under God..."

How binding this declaration is in the light of Article 20 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights quoted above is worth noting. However, equally important is a critical examination of how Nigerians have come to find themselves in this situation in the first place. It will take an inordinate amount of willpower to seek a change in the structure of Nigeria if those who are seeking to maintain the status quo enjoy the fruits of Nigerian unity. What is disturbing is that the call for Nigeria's restructuring is beginning to grow. There are several justifications for this, and how these are resolved or allowed to grow will play a significant role in Nigeria's future.

Nigeria's Ethnic Loyalty and Diversity

One of the biggest justifications for the call for Nigeria's restructuring is the reality of diverse ethnicities. The country is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the world. What is more substantial is that a number of ethnic groups believe, from the nation's independence, that they are capable of standing as sovereign societies. At the making of Nigeria's foundation, major ethnic groups believed they were coming together to form a country, like agreeing to a treaty. When this kind of notion is held among different groups in Nigeria, it becomes logical to exit such a treaty if things no longer work as envisaged. The endless campaigns in the Nigerian media, persuading people that we are one, seem a direct effort to ingrain a belief that has ultimately found difficulty taking root in the minds of Nigerians.

There is no doubt that millions of Nigerians remain patriotic or care a little about the form the state takes, as long as they are able to conduct their affairs the way they want it. However, major ethnic leaders and elder statesmen remain firmly loyal to their ethnic groups; and, when they take the forms of late General Odumegwu Ojukwu and Nnamdi Kanu, these loyalties manifest as calls for secession.

The first major test of Nigeria's unity came just a few years after independence, when the first military coup d'état led to the death of a number of ethnic and political leaders of the Nigerian government. This brought about a reprisal in what has been described as the bloodiest coup in Nigerian history, which eventually degenerated into the Nigerian Civil War. After three years of violence, more than a million people had lost their lives in a conflict that had its roots in the scourge of tribalism.2 This is the first and only full-scale war witnessed by Nigerians since independence. At the end, Nigeria was able to hold onto its unity. But for how long?

Among all groups that have questioned the benefits of Nigeria's unity, dissident Igbo groups have been the most vocal and proactive. Stumps from the fallen Biafra State had led to the regeneration of Igbo nationalist groups that continue to seek secession from the Nigerian state. Before Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), achieved nationwide popularity, several Igbo groups had successfully communicated their position on the Nigerian state. What is different this time around is that all these independent groups have now formed a coalition under the leadership of Nnamdi Kanu.3

If Nigeria's unity is to be effectively threatened, then unity must exist among those who seek to divide the country. When you look at the unwillingness of the Nigerian government to pursue restructuring or referendum or anything that seek to upset its unity, you realize that nationalist groups will only achieve their aim either through forceful exit or voting into power a government more favorable to the idea of secession or restructuring.

Our unity is now under the biggest threat since the civil war. The rise and rise of agitators seeking secession has mounted pressure on Nigeria. It is only a matter of time before a full-fledged conflict is triggered as evidenced by the rising number of casualties among the agitators, especially during public protests. According to Amnesty International, at least 150 people have been killed and hundreds more injured since August 2015, during pro-Biafra activities. The report by Amnesty International documents killings of two people in August 2015 and this grew to 150 in less than two years, including the 60 people killed during the Remembrance Day rally in May 2016. Almost all of these killings have happened in the South East, home of pro-Biafra agitators.4

Pro-Biafran resistance continues to rise despite the repression. This resistance is quickly growing to have an identity. On September 10, 2017, the Nigerian military was reported to have invaded the residence of Nnamdi Kanu. In response, Kanu proclaimed that the military was provoking retaliation from his group and instigating them to take up arms to protect themselves. If the military continues to mount pressure on Nnamdi Kanu and his cohorts, through extrajudicial killings, arrests and invasions, Nigeria might begin another journey to a civil war.

The support for Biafra may be divided even among Igbos, but what we cannot ignore is the abuse of human rights, a crime which the Nigerian military continues to commit. If this is unchecked, Kanu will win more support from the public and will have more justifications to pursue his ambition to lead pro-Biafran supporters to exit the Nigerian nationality. How the Nigerian government plays its cards in this game will eventually determine whether the secession happens and, if it happens, whether it would be bloody or not. Another thing to note is that the Nigerian military has always been successful in mitigating uprisings that threaten the country. First was the Biafran War, the OPC insurrection, the Niger Delta militancy and Boko Haram insurgency. All these have happened with widespread allegations of human rights abuse against the military.

What has led a somewhat docile movement to take the front page of national newspapers and become a national concern? When asked in an interview with Al Jazeera, Nnamdi Kanu stated reasons he is pursuing secession for Biafra:5 "Nothing seems to be working in Nigeria. There is pain and hardship everywhere. What we're fighting [for] is not self-determination for the sake of it. It's because Nigeria is not functioning and can never function."

He later added that marginalization of Igbos was also top among his concerns. According to him, Igbos are prevented from assuming top political positions like the Presidency, Chief of Staff or Inspector General of Police, among others.

Although there has not been any tribal group that has approached the level that the Igbos have reached in fighting repression, oppression or ethnic hostilities, a number of other tribes have achieved some fame in their response towards same. Let us start with the Oodua People's Congress (OPC).6 OPC is a Yoruba nationalist organization that was formed in 1993 in response to the annulment of 1993 presidential election. The group had been formed to actualize the mandate of M.K.O. Abiola's (who they believed won the presidential elections). Despite the failure of the group to get Abiola into power, they continued to exist and became a militant force in the South Western part of the country.7

In 1999, the Federal Government announced a ban on the OPC and gave the police orders to deal with the organization ruthlessly. Human Rights Watch gave an account of how the federal government treated the militant OPC force:

Instructions to the police to 'shoot on sight', combined with the OPC's defiance of the ban, provoked a heavy-handed and brutal response from the police. The police regularly raided and broke up OPC meetings; scores of OPC members were killed by the police and hundreds arrested. Few of the arrests have resulted in successful prosecution. In many cases, suspects were detained for a short period then released on bail; in others, they have remained in detention for prolonged periods awaiting trial.8

One thing to note is that the government's response to the rise of the nationalist groups is quite similar to how it responded to the pro-Biafra group. After agitations began to increase, the government arrested Frederick Fasheun, the founder of OPC. Homes of the Yoruba were illegally raided and soldiers led ethnically motivated attacks on Yoruba people. This was followed by the arrests, arbitrary detention, torture and extrajudicial killings of members of the OPC. At this time, the group was more of a militant group than a separatist organization. Nevertheless, its threat to national unity remained. By 2002, the government had successfully used the Nigerian military and the police force to subdue the militant group.

The organization continues to exist today as a civil group. Among the goals and objectives of the organization, as stated on their website, the OPC seeks to ensure maximum self-determination of the people of Oodua. In addition, it will seek to protect the interests of all Oodua people. The organization is currently docile in its nationalist drive and continues to be part of the Nigerian government. Yet, it will take only a sequence of perceptions of marginalization for it to begin to mull the possibility of a secessionist agenda.

Just like the Oodua People's Congress, the northerners formed the Arewa People's Congress in order to protect the interest of northerners, especially in defense against attacks by the members of the OPC.

The Arewa People's Congress was formed, in 1999, as a militant wing of the Arewa Consultative Forum (a socio-political and ethno-religious group) to protect the interests of the Hausa-Fulani in the North.9 However unlike OPC, the Arewa People's Congress never threatened the unity of the country to the point of national prominence. It appears that the Northerners are the biggest supporters of Nigeria's nationhood. We can connect this with the perception that northerners hold the largest share of political power in the country. Therefore, if there is any group that will fight to keep the country together, it will be the northerners. Yet, Boko Haram surfaced in 2009 as the biggest threat to Nigeria's unity when the group sought to create an Islamic State independent of Nigeria.

Boko Haram had been a relatively unknown group for about 7 years of its existence. Then in 2009, a joint military task force arrested its leader, Mohammed Yusuf, after launching an operation to investigate the group. This singular act elevated Yusuf to hero status (compare with the arrest of Nnamdi Kanu and Frederick Fasehun). When Yusuf was killed in detention, it led to reprisal attacks against the police in the North east, which eventually developed into a full-scale conflict. The Boko Haram insurgency has led to the death of tens of thousands of civilians and the displacement of more than two million people.

In the South South, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) emerged so as to bring an end the oppression of Niger Deltans in the country. Unlike, OPC and pro-Biafran agitators, MEND did not seek, at any point, to disrupt the unity of the country. However, the manner in which it made known its grudges against the government was similar to that of Boko Haram, and the OPC. MEND's activities included sabotage, theft, property destruction, guerrilla warfare, and kidnapping. MEND was also closely related to the rebel group Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF). Led by Asari Dokubo, NDPVF was a rebel group composed of mainly members of the Ijaw ethnic group. The group had frequently demanded a greater share of the oil wealth from both the state and federal government and had sometimes proposed independence for the Delta region. The Obasanjo government would later arrest Asari Dokubo and keep him in detention until he was released by President Yar'adua. Acclaimed leader of MEND, Henry Okah, was also arrested and released by the government.

The goal of these comparisons is not to assume that all these groups had the same motive for threatening the unity of Nigeria. What we are looking out for is to understand the reasons why nationalist groups surfaced in Nigeria across all regions and how the government of Nigeria fared against them. This will help us understand what the country will do to either end the emergence of nationalist groups or continue to witness their resurgence.

One thing we noticed was that all these groups were predominantly ethnic based. Thus, if future militant groups rise, they are likely to be ethnically homogenous and accuse the government of oppression and marginalization.

It makes sense for us to keep an eye on the scale of ethnic clashes in Nigeria. This helps us evaluate how much harm the heterogeneity of Nigeria is causing its citizens. There is a general belief that citizens of Nigeria are first loyal to their ethnic groups before that loyalty extends to the nation. This means that the average Nigerian will oblige to defend their ethnic group before defending the country. If they have to choose, they will easily stand with their ethnic group. This situation is what caused the country to introduce the Federal Character in the appointment of members of the federal cabinet. It also means that the togetherness of Nigerians only stands as far as an ethnic group or members of an ethnic group are not threatened.

Nigeria is a constantly boiling pot of ethnic conflicts. Some extend for several years while others start and end in a few days or months. According to Human Rights Watch, over 13,500 people have been killed in Nigeria in communal violence since 1999. Perhaps the most widely acknowledged ethnic conflict since 1999 is the Jos crisis.

Between 4,000 and 7,000 people have been killed during the Jos crisis in over a decade of ethnic violence.10 The causes of these conflicts range from political appointment disputes, to land disputes, allocation of resources and fear of religious domination. The conflict is usually between the Berom, one of the largest tribes in Jos, and the Hausa migrants, the largest group in Jos. This conflict started over indigenization rights and escalated into religious battles.

In Jos, only indigenes can contest for elections. This means that if the local government does not certify one as an indigene of the state, one cannot contest any post. Disputes over who should be an indigene lead to protracted conflicts that often claim hundreds of lives. The indigene–settler divide puts Jos on the brink of violence at almost every moment.

Asides elections, proportions of political appointments and disputes over land rights can trigger violence among the warring groups. Numerous small attacks, massacres and destruction of places of worship characterize the Jos crisis. The disputes in Jos exemplify perfectly the friction that often exists among ethnic groups in Nigeria.

Another notable ethnic conflict is the recurring clash between the Ijaw and Itsekiri in Warri, Delta State. The first major clash started in 1997 when the Federal Government located the headquarters of the Warri South-West Local Government Council in an Ijaw area. When the Itsekiris mounted pressure on the government, the headquarters was relocated to an Itsekiri area. This led to widespread violence between the two groups until the headquarters was relocated, once again, to an Ijaw area. The Urhobo, another ethnic group in Warri, then joined the two in contest over control of Warri. Warri is the largest metropolitan area in Delta State. Disputes over allocation of wards in the local governments also caused widespread violence in 2003 during local elections. Attacks and counter attacks ensued among the three groups that led to loss of lives, destruction of properties and breakdown in the operations of oil companies in the area.11

The most recent of these conflicts are those between Fulani herdsmen and local tribes in southern Nigeria and the Middle Belt. The local tribes include Tiv, Yoruba, Niger Deltans and Igbo. There were also reports of attacks in Southern Kaduna. The Fulani herdsmen are nomadic pastoralists who travel with their livestock, mostly cattle, across the country for grazing. The absence of reserved grazing areas across the country means that the herdsmen usually trespass on land belonging to natives of the terrains through which they wander. Sometimes, this includes invasion of farmlands. When locals resist the herdsmen, some of the herdsmen turn to violence to stake their claims. This has led to the death of thousands of people across the country.

A press release in 2017 by the Tiv Professionals Group (TPG) reported that the Fulani militia had claimed the lives of 1,878 men, women and children in cold blood, from twelve local government areas of Benue State. A total of 1,159 men, women and children also lost their lives to attacks by the Fulani men in Taraba State across seven local government areas during the same period.

The organization ended the press release with the statement:

Our willingness to stay in one united country should not be taken for granted by Fulani herdsmen. We can no longer tolerate their incessant attacks and the slaughter of our people in their sleep on their ancestral lands. The Fulani have crossed the line and for the sake of our country, they must be called to order.12

Leaders of the South South, South East, South West and Middle Belt called on the government to restrict the movement of the herdsman and domicile them in ranches. However, the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, speaking for the nomads, said the government could not restrict movements of cattle rearers.13

The foregoing constitutes only a number of the major ethnic conflicts in Nigeria. Unity remains an illusion when you consider that these disagreements are recurrent among different tribes in the country. The diversity of cultures has been both a blessing and a curse on the nationhood of Nigeria.

When we consider that nationalists groups have been based on ethnic formations and communal crisis have also been interethnic, we may infer that Nigeria's future is only as strong as its ability to keep the warring tribes together. Restructuring may seem one of the most important methods of keeping the country together.

The importance of restructuring has never been lost on the leaders of the country. Just before independence, minorities raised their concerns about marginalization through an unbalanced federal structure in the new country. When a constitutional conference was held in 1957, the 1958 Willinks Commission Report made recommendations to help build a federal structure that assuages the fears of the minorities. However, that report was not put into consideration in the 1960 Constitution. The call for restructuring continued into the early years of independence.

The closest Nigeria has been to a confederation was between 1960 and 1966 where Nigeria was divided into three regions, each with its own constitution, leadership and semi-independence. This did not last long as ethnic minorities continued to clamor for the reduction of the dominance of the three major tribes—Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo. This eventually led to the creation of new states.

Addressing Restructuring and Nigeria's Unity through National Dialogue

Before the creation of the new states, the then head-of-state, Yakubu Gowon, had instituted a National Dialogue to decide the future of the nation.14 When Yakubu Gowon assumed power, Aguiyi Ironsi had abolished the federal structure and turned the regional governments into groups of provinces. Gowon reverted to the federal structure but depended on the National Dialogue to determine how he would structure the country. Gowon was against a breakup and looked to prevent the disintegration of the country. Possible outcomes of the National Dialogue would have been: a federation with a strong central government; a federation with a weak central government; or, a confederation with no central government. Unfortunately, attacks and counterattacks between Igbos and Hausas disrupted the process and Gowon shifted focus to the brewing civil war. When the war ended, Gowon announced the restructuring of the country into twelve states with a stronger federal government.

What we find is that, despite efforts to make Nigeria stand as one, the country has been breaking up along ethnic lines since independence, disintegrating into more ethnically homogenous communities called states. Post-First Republic heads-of-state created more states and the federal government grew stronger. Calls for a national conference continued in the Fourth Republic at the commencement of Obasanjo's regime in 1999. Obasanjo dodged the call for restructuring by convening the National Political Reform Conference from February to July 2005. The conference was unpopular and had no significant impact on the structure of the country. Instead, the call of a sovereign national conference intensified.

A sovereign national conference is usually convened when there is a general agreement that the current structure of a country can no longer work. The outcome of a sovereign national conference will override the authority of the state and set the process for a regime change. Decisions made at such a conference would provide the new rules the country will operate by.

In March 2014, President Goodluck Jonathan convened a National Conference. This conference was meant to proffer appropriate solutions that will assist in moving the nation forward. The conference was headed by Idris Kutigi and had 492 delegates cherry-picked across the country. Although the conference produced a report with recommendations on the restructuring of the country, the country is yet to ratify the report.15

Thus, we discover a trend of a country at discomfort with itself. The sustained call for a sovereign national conference, the rise of nationalist groups, inter-ethnic conflicts and apathy to government processes mean that Nigeria must at one time or the other examine the structure of the country. However, this is not a given. The government may or may not accede to calls for restructuring; it may even quench the aggressions of nationalist groups with the military force, or assuage the unsettled ethnic groups and focus on improving the economic status of the country.

The country may seem to have a straightforward route to its survival. But, if we look again, we might come up with at least two arguments about Nigeria's situation and how best to approach it.

One argument supports that there exists a perpetual friction among neighboring ethnic groups in Nigeria. Unless these ethnic groups are separated or learn to live with one another, then it is only a matter of time before the country disintegrates into anarchy. A boost in economic activity, infrastructure development or security would not solve the ethnic hostilities. Thus, if more crises happen, and the roots continue to be tied to inability of ethnic groups to stay together, secession or restructuring along ethnic lines will eventually happen to save the country from anarchy. There are several ways to divide the country. One is the creation of more states, especially along ethnic lines, and increasing the autonomy of the states. This approach means the federal government is still strong, but states will be more homogenous and will make decisions regarding their futures and their relationships with other states locally. The states may even have their own local constitutions and have laws and regulations that are different from other states.

Another route to go is having a weakened federal structure while the states have more autonomy. It means the federal government will not be able to assert any major influence on the states. States will be largely independent and may even have their identities separate from the federal government; different tax systems, national sport teams and so on. Another route is to break the country into regions and have a structure similar to the pre-coup Nigeria. A fourth route will be to allow secession. This means the country will remain but will allow regions that decide to exit the country and establish their own sovereign states to do so. This will either shrink the size of the country or eventually lead to its extinction. So far, Nigeria's restructuring has towed only one path—the path of creating more states, especially along ethnic lines.

If the government seeks to retain the current structure or allow for only minor adjustments such as resource allocation, then education becomes its most powerful tool. Education is an important tool for human development and peaceful coexistence. It provides people with the tools to prevent conflict and build a peaceful society. The security and stability of the country largely depends on its ability to provide functional education to its citizens. Sadly, the education sector in Nigeria is one of the most deplorable in the world. UNICEF declared that about half (10.5 million) of the 20 million of the world's out-of-school children are from Nigeria alone. Nigeria's public spending on education is 8 per cent, which is less than the recommended 26 per cent by the United Nations.16 Tertiary institutions go on repeated prolonged strikes, some lasting as much as six months. The state of education in Nigeria is just as bad as the state of the nation itself. Unless the state of education in the country is improved, it will not be able to assume its role of driving peaceful coexistence and stability in the country.

Will Improving on Standard of Living and Social Inequality Foster Our Unity?

A second argument may infer that living conditions and social inequality cause these conflicts. If Nigeria's stability depends more on the living conditions, then it becomes important to examine the trends of such indicators to give us an understanding of our future. Poor living conditions, violence, and so on may inspire Nigerians to continually seek alternatives to living in the country.

When we examine human development index (HDI), we find that Nigeria has been experiencing a 1.11 per cent annual growth since 2000.17 This points out that, generally, the lives of Nigerians are improving, but maybe not at the pace citizens want. The human development index is measured using three indices—life expectancy, expected years of schooling (knowledge) and standard of living (gross national income-GNI). In the last ten years, Nigeria experienced a 13.1% increase in human development. Standing at number 152 out of 188 countries, Nigeria still ranks as Low Human Development (LHD) country and has low standard of living, yet it continues to enjoy improvements year on year.18

The Housing Deficits and Obstacles to Affordable Shelter

Housing is one of man's basic life needs, only second to food. Access to good and abundant housing reflects a quality standard of living for citizens. Since getting a good house requires a sizeable investment, the amount of houses owned by citizens is a good indicator for measuring household wealth.

The latest estimates of Nigeria's housing deficit puts it at 17 million units and this is expected to grow by 900,000 units annually. This is not helped by the 2.6 per cent population growth rate, which is double world's population growth rate (1.11% per year). The failure of past housing schemes does not give any respite to the current situation.19

Nearly 50 per cent of Nigeria's population lives in urban areas. This is an increase from the 10 per cent in 1952 and 38 per cent in 1993. Over 80 per cent of the population lives in informal settlements in the major urban areas or traditional villages.20

In order to mitigate the rising housing deficits, the government introduced the National Housing Fund (NHF). Employers are to put 2.5 per cent of an employee's salary into this fund. After 6 months, employees may access a maximum housing loan of 15 million naira, which they will pay back at an interest of 6 per cent for 30 years. It may also serve as a retirement security if the employee did not secure a loan. By March 2017, the NHF had financed the construction of about 25,606 housing units, with an additional 15,085 housing units pending. The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria also started unveiling plans to incorporate the informal sector, which largely comprises non-salaried workers, into the scheme. According to the bank, this made up 85 per cent of the entire workforce.21

While this is a commendable approach to cutting down on the housing deficit, the government will need to do much more in order to match the rising housing needs. With an annual housing need of about 1 million housing units, the NHF is yet to show it can cut down this figure significantly in the near future. This becomes more worrisome due to the country's population growth rate.

Inflation and high interest rates make other options of real estate high risk. Several banks operate at lending rates higher than 20 per cent.22 Since mortgage loans are generally long term, the accrued interest over the period of payment sometimes almost doubles the principal. Imagine you take a mortgage on a house of 25 million naira at an interest rate of 20 per cent for 30 years. You will have paid triple that principal in interest alone. This does not encourage borrowers, especially due to the volatility of the economy.

Previous housing development plans run by the country have proved ineffective in reducing the housing deficits, especially in response to rural urban migration and population growth.

The national development plan (1970-1974) constructed 10,500 housing units against the targeted 59,000 units. Out of a targeted 200,000 housing units in the National Development Plan (1975-80), only 32,000 units were completed. Subsequent national development plans were equally ineffective. The ineffectiveness led to the accumulation of housing deficits.23

When the private sector started to offer mortgage loans, it came with high interest rates. Together with the cost of building materials and the bureaucratic obstacles of acquiring lands, housing development suffered.

The Land Use Act Conundrum

Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles to overcoming the housing deficit is the Land Use Act. Olusegun Obasanjo introduced it as a decree in 1978 to make land more accessible and cheaper for acquirers. The reverse has been the case. Acquiring land is now much more difficult due to the act. The act vests the ownership of land to the head of government at the local, state and federal levels. This means land acquirers, after agreement of land transfer from initial owners, must approach the government for a Certificate of Occupancy. The process of acquiring the certificate is ridden with corruption and tedious bureaucratic processes that end up shooting up the cost of acquiring land.

Citizens have called on the government to repeal the act, but the act remains an integral part of Nigeria's statute books. Both Presidents Umaru Yar'adua and Goodluck Jonathan tried to amend the act, but both were unsuccessful. The government will need to amend the constitution before the act can be removed.24 The failure to remove the act, the rising inflation and interest rates only mean that housing deficits will continue to rise.

The uninspiring effort of NHS to cut down on housing needs pales in comparison with the incredible success of the Pension Act, another social welfare program introduced by Olusegun Obasanjo in 2004.

Health

In fact, many of other welfare schemes introduced by the government have been lackluster, short lived and underwhelming. One of these is the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). The social health insurance scheme was meant to provide universal health coverage for every Nigerian. It also worked based on the contributory scheme where the employer and employee contribute to the employee's health insurance. The performance of the scheme, since its introduction in 1999, can only be described as mediocre. In 2014, the scheme had covered only three per cent of Nigerians.25 This is uninspiring, especially when these statistics are juxtaposed with the plans of the scheme to have covered every Nigerian by 2015.

Access to healthcare in Nigeria is poor. Affluent Nigerians spend one billion dollars annually on medical treatments abroad due to the lack of confidence in the local healthcare system.26 The medical system is embattled by various crisis such as doctors going on recurring strikes. Their complaints range from the neglect of the healthcare system to the non-payment of salaries at the appropriate times.

Police Brutality

Piling upon the poor standard living is the lurking police brutality. Many citizens have lost confidence in the police to safeguard lives and property. Instead, they are trying to protect themselves from the police. This is in no small part a result of corruption, underfunding and incompetence of the police force in Nigeria. Investigation by The Point Newspaper revealed that the police have killed more than 1,000 people recklessly in the last 10 years.27 Between August 2015 and February 2016, the police killed over 155 Nigerians, while 500 others were either maimed or detained without trial. Many times, when this happens, the police officers who are culprits of such extrajudicial killings are usually let off the hook; whether through poorly managed court cases, hurried dismissals, transfer to other stations or outright leaving them with no charge at all.

Amnesty International reported in September 2016 that Nigerian police units set up to combat crime were instead torturing civilians and creating a toxic climate of fear and entrenching corrupt practices. The report documented a pattern of ruthless human rights violations where victims were arrested and tortured with methods including, beating, starvation and shooting. Victims end up either confessing to crimes they did not commit or paying bribes to the officers to secure their release. According to the organization, reports from lawyers, journalists, and human rights defenders show that police officers regularly demand bribes, steal and extort money from criminal suspects and their families.28

These and many more are some of the things that characterize the Nigerian society. People live in fear as much as they live in poverty. The discontent with the society reflects in the fact that more people are leaving the country than they are coming into the country. Whether to seek new opportunities or escape the severe conditions of living in Nigeria, citizens who are successful in their efforts to leave the country are joyous and are enveloped by a feeling of liberation. Those who are unable to leave the country continue to wish they could do so in the near future.

A good example of how socioeconomic developments may reduce conflicts is found in Lagos State. Lagos has the most advanced economy in the country. Can we connect the stability enjoyed by Lagos and a number of other surrounding states to the economic growth of these areas? By 2016, the Lagos State Government generated 301 billion naira, rising from about 202 billion naira in 2011. Unlike many other parts of the country, Lagos State Government has been consistent in accelerating the social and economic development of the state. This has made civil unrest largely uncommon in Lagos in recent times. We could only perform this correlation hypothesis for Lagos and could not map any improvement with rise in revenue generation for other states. This may also mean all these other states are yet to reach the threshold where their economic statuses have significant impact on their stability. Rivers, the second place state on the IGR ranking, had only 85 billion naira in revenue, a far cry from the numbers pulled by Lagos.29

In summary, we find that living in Nigeria is arduous and full of unnecessary challenges. The lack of working systems aggravates the pain of poverty. The sheer size of the country increases the amount of people who unify in the agitations for better standards of living. While the performance of the economy is generally on a rise, it is not translating to better standard of living for the citizens at the same rate. This is the reason many feel Nigeria is not working and the country aches for restructuring. Perhaps a new form of government will emerge with better thought put to resource allocation. Insecurity, corruption, lack of infrastructure and basic amenities are some of the reasons nationalist groups put forward for their secessionist or restructuring calls. It makes sense to re-examine the conditions of an agreement when it no longer bodes well for the entire populace. The ethnic groups represent collective interest that may only be propagated by such units of fundamental commonality. The only other unit that binds people together in such capacity in Nigeria is religion.

We find that due to the ethnic loyalties of citizens, groups will more likely seek to separate from a sinking Nigerian ship than take responsibility to keep it sailing. This is borne of the belief that the country has failed them, that the amalgamation of the country was an experimental failure and that groups have the liberty to exit the association of cultures called Nigeria. Aggravated socioeconomic issues may also contribute to ethnic violence. However, we do not also overlook the patriotic Nigerians who are very keen on keeping the country afloat and together.

Thus, just as we find a trend of ethnic conflicts across the country, we also see that the poor standard of living in Nigeria can as well be the major cause for agitations in the country. The Arab Spring, a response to the inadequacies of the governments in the Maghreb countries was kick-started when a frustrated young citizen set himself on fire in the open. However, if a Nigerian spring would happen, it will not come in the form of a young frustrated citizen setting himself on fire. It will likely come in the form of throngs of ethnic or religious agitations.

It can be inferred that how the current government and subsequent governments perform in providing social infrastructure to the citizens, especially in the face of rising agitations, will determine the unity of Nigeria. If things continue to deteriorate, new ethnic groups will threaten the unity of the country. The more the agitations increase, the faster Nigeria will approach balkanization or confederacy.

Chapter Six

A United Political Class

While we may celebrate the political stability we have enjoyed so far, we cannot take our eyes off the developments in our political sphere and how the polity is being shaped. In the early 1960s, only a few years after independence, Nigeria switched from the British parliamentary style to the American federal structure it runs now. On the back of democracy, for the first time since independence, Nigerians voted out a ruling party in favor of an opposition in 2015. The biggest victory scored during that transition was that there were no major agitations to contest the decisions of the electorate. Except for Godswill Orubebe's antics, the outgoing president's team conceded victory to the president elect in a fashion that rightly describes the progress of Nigerian democracy since 1999.

The cynicism that greeted the return of democracy in 1999 was forgivable; once bitten, twice shy. In just about two decades since the return of democracy, Nigerians continue to forge ahead, led by a democratic and stable government. Before now, we had marched to the polls thrice but the fruits of those elections were laid to waste twice by the military. Another reason the citizens were cynical about the return of democracy or its sustenance was that military governments had always promised a return to democracy but only two of these were able to fulfill that promise.

We have now held five general elections. Only Olusegun Obasanjo has served more than a single term as an elected president. Muhammadu Buhari became the first opposition candidate to defeat an incumbent president in 2015. All these mean progress. Yet, to understand how our political future will look like, we need to look closer into Nigeria's political trends. Are we truly progressing? In what fashion is our polity shaping?

Do Nigerians Trust the Democratic Process?

One of the trends that we train our eyes on is the voter turnout at elections. Low turnouts during election can indicate the poverty of democracy and high voter turnout will represent high confidence in the democratic process as well as governance. In 2003, voter turnout improved from 52.3 per cent in 1999 to 69 per cent.1 Unfortunately, that has since dropped and reached a low of 42.30 per cent in 2015. This is despite the fact that the 2015 election was regarded as one of the most expensive elections ever organized in Africa.2 It was another drop from the 57.5 per cent recorded in 2007 and 53.7 per cent in 2011. There is a trend of decreasing voter turnouts at elections. What this means is that, while the country's democracy continues to stabilize, people are losing trust in the electioneering processes.

Electioneering is fundamental to the stability of democracy. Scholars like Powell (1986)3 Wattenburg (2002)4 in different dissertations argue that low voter turnout decreases the legitimacy of democracy. The 2015 election was the fifth successful election held in Nigeria since the beginning of the Fourth Republic and the rising menace of voter apathy undermines the stability that Nigeria's democracy now enjoys. Democracy is government by the popular will of the citizens of a country. In the case where voters do not turn up to even vote, and things get as terrible as they were in 2015, when less than half of registered voters turned out for elections, the idea that we are still running a democracy becomes farfetched.

The margin between former president, Goodluck Jonathan, and incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari, was a few million votes, which could have been surmountable through improved voter turnout. With less than half of people voting, it only meant that the current president might not have been the popular will of the people. This questions the progress of democracy in the Nigerian society.

The electoral body had to shift registration dates severally to accommodate more voters in the registration process. The body generally struggled to reach desirable numbers. In 2015, INEC reported registering 68.8 million voters, which was an estimated 78 per cent of the total voting population.5 People who registered for the cards were also aware of other benefits that the voter's card would afford them, especially as the National Identity Card remains elusive. When the elections arrived, less than half of the registered voters turned out.

Can we conclude that Nigerians are not confident about democracy? Definitely not. A survey carried out by Vanguard newspapers revealed that there is a general acceptance of democracy as the system of government Nigeria should run.6 Many Nigerians are also aware that Nigeria's democracy is relatively nascent. Therefore, as much as they wish that they had begun to reap the benefits of a democracy, they are more aware that it might take some time to build strong institutions, especially considering the level of poor governance registered during the military regimes. Yet, Nigerians are also showing their dissatisfaction towards the current state of governance in Nigeria through the dying enthusiasm about electoral processes and the increasing lack of concern about electoral outcomes. Nigerians trust democracy but have little confidence in the current democratic process. There are several reasons for the indifference towards electoral processes in Nigeria.

Electoral irregularities characterize Nigerian elections. Although this is changing, experiences from precedents still inform the opinions of voters. People feel that their votes do not count and that winners of elections get chosen using backdoor tactics. Electoral violence and political threats are some of the other things people hope to avoid during elections.

The inordinate amount of money spent by political parties also tends to influence election results and diminishes the credibility of the voting process. The 2015 election cost Nigeria about one trillion naira ($2 billion) in expenses incurred by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),political parties and candidates.7 The expenses incurred by political parties almost doubled what they spent in the 2011 elections. The rising cost of elections can be related to the spate of corruption in the country. High unemployment and rising poverty rate contributes to this too. When politicians campaign, they also have to fill pockets with money and share welfare items, such as bags of rice and kegs of vegetable oil, among the masses.

One other reason for the perceived apathy is the tedious electoral process. People sometimes spend long hours trying to register for their cards or perform the actual voting exercise. INEC officers arrive late to venues and put voters through undue stress. Another reason may be the corruption that goes on in political parties.

Recently, Nigerian political parties were adjudged the most corrupt in the world. Transparency International, in a 2015 report, ranked the country ahead of Mexico and Cyprus.8 This raises the cost of contesting for political posts. Since citizens find attaining power far-fetched, they get solace in not participating in voting processes at all. This is common among those who often say they refuse to choose between 'two evils'. The corruption that pervades political parties ends up spilling into the government. There is a general claim that government officials are influenced to engage in corruption and money laundering due to the high cost of getting to serve in a political capacity. The money they lost to fellow politicians and other people who helped them get to the post are recouped during service. This is in addition to the cost of holding a political office where friends and families believe government officials have access to limitless wealth and they hope the officials can keep granting them favors during the time these officials spend in office.

However, chief among these is the non-fulfillment of electoral promises. Citizens are becoming numb to the promises of politicians as they barely fulfill them. If voters turnout will improve, policy makers must ensure electoral promises are fulfilled. Governments must deliver on good governance, housing, infrastructure, healthcare, education, rule of law and security. Citizens must be able to find a correlation between elections and improved standard of living and socioeconomic progress. Electoral and democracy stakeholders should worry at the trend of voters turnout. They need to track these developments and work on fostering citizen participation in democratic processes.

In 2015, when citizens went to the polls and voted Buhari, pundits believed this was only because citizens felt any change in government at all was necessary.9 Perhaps this is one of the victories of democracy; the ability of people to choose who they want.

We found out that Nigerians expressed satisfaction in the success of transitioning the government from one political party to another. This was an important threshold in the history of Nigeria and a victory for Nigerian democracy. You could hear Nigerians proudly say that they will continue to exercise such powers in subsequent elections. Before then, civilians had not successfully unseated a ruling party. PDP's sixteen year rule ultimately ended with a seeming narrow loss to APC whose candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, was contesting for the fourth consecutive time. Aged and weak from years of military activity and failed political campaigns, Buhari finally ascended Nigeria's number one political position as a civilian. This time around, he promised to secure victory over corruption. At that point, Nigerians did not care about his age or his qualifications. The desire to end corruption in Nigeria and welcome an alteration in governments was high in hearts of millions of voters. This choice to decide who occupies the nation's political offices, along with the freedom of expression, is one of the benefits citizens now enjoy.

The Occupy Nigeria protests in 2012 represent significant progress in Nigeria's history. On 2nd January, 2012, Nigerians hits the streets to protest the New Year announcement made by former president, Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan had increased the fuel price after announcing the removal of subsidy from petroleum products. The protest was characterized by civil disobedience, demonstrations, online activism and strike actions. On January 16, 2012, the government yielded and partially restored fuel subsidy, subsequently lowering fuel price.10

On March 30 2017, Nigerian youths started to protest over the Not Too Young To Run bill.11 If passed, the bill would lower the age required to run for political posts and promote youth inclusion in governance. Protesters coupled their demonstrations with online activities on social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook. On July 27, the Senate passed the bill in favor of the protesters.12

The Influence of Social Media on Nigeria's Polity

As we continue, it is important that we highlight the increasing role social media now plays in our polity. According to Facebook, about 16 million Nigerians use the platform monthly.13 Given that Facebook is the largest social media platform in the world, we assume that most other social media platforms have about the same number of Nigerians or less. WhatsApp, the instant messaging platform, is another tool Nigerians use to communicate with one another. However, as much as it might be more commonly used, there are limitations to information sharing due to limits in group sizes to allow concurrent conversations, and the limit of relevant networks people have. What interests us the most is that citizens now use these platforms more often. A popular mantra which was adapted from Gil Scott-Heron's "This Revolution Will Not Be Televised" goes thus: The revolution will not be televised, it will be tweeted.

When Boko Haram kidnapped the 276 girls from the secondary school in Chibok, some Nigerians started a campaign on social media tagged #BringBackOurGirls. This campaign attracted thousands of Nigerians online and quickly spread across the world. The impact was so intense that the first lady of the United States of America at the time, Michelle Obama, joined in the campaign. This campaign also resulted in several demonstrations in different parts of the country and the world, putting pressure on the government to act.14 There are hints that this campaign contributed to the ousting of President Goodluck Jonathan. There was a public outrage when the president's campaign team used the hashtag #BringBackGoodluck2015 in campaign materials for the president's reelection. Another noteworthy campaign was the #ChildNotBride campaign against child marriage and abuse.

The beauty of the social media is that it democratizes information. As much as false information may be shared, it also ensures that information that may be hidden by state owned media can be freely accessed without corruption. Not many Nigerians can afford cable TV. Several low-income families can only afford to watch a few local television stations that are free to air. Many of the freely accessed televisions are either state owned or owned by friends of the government, like AIT and Silverbird TV. What this means is that information which tends to influence public opinion heavily, especially in a way the government does not like, can be easily manipulated by the government. Government's efforts to control the use of social media have repeatedly failed. The most significant was the withdrawal of the anti-social media bill, known as Frivolous Petitions (Prohibition, etc.) Bill 2015, by the Senate after the bill was floated to control activities of Nigerians online.15

With the rise of social media, we find that people can now access information in its crude state. People may also reach one another and confirm news stories faster. This has placed immense power in the hands of the people.

Unfortunately, Nigerians that are online are not many, especially when compared with the average size of the voting population or, worse, the entire population of the country. The cost of Internet services influences people's accessibility to the social media. Although competition has led telecommunication companies to drop cost continuously, the cost remains relatively high and the bandwidth low. Due to the weak currency, prices of digital devices have doubled. This ensures that millions of Nigerians are still shut out of the benefits of social media, especially in helping them make informed decisions about the government.

The increasing importance of social media has led several influential politicians to open social media accounts. Governments now have special aides whose major role is to help the government maximize the use of social media.16 The federal government and many of the ministries and state governments also disseminate information through social media. Anticorruption agencies such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) are not left out. Both the government and the citizens understand how important these platforms are and they are trying to maximize their use to their benefit.

If more people get access to digital devices and internet, there will be more campaigns started online, translating to offline movements challenging decisions made by the government. Social media may also serve as the unifying platform that can upturn the political direction of the country. We envisage an increase in the use of social media to organize and foster civil demonstrations and discussions that directly affect outcomes of government decisions. The access to unsullied information may also play a huge role in uniting the country. Yet, just as education can be a powerful tool to promote peaceful coexistence amidst Nigeria's different ethnic groups, it may also foster conflict as people become more aware of the state of the country.

Thus, we recognize that it is now commonplace for citizens to entertain diverging opinions from the government and voice them out without fear of attack. In addition, the unbridled access to information may greatly influence the political course of Nigeria.

Africa's Progress against Authoritarianism

Asides Nigeria's commitment to running a democratic government, pressure from international bodies will prevent any other form of governance. On 19th September 2015, the African Union suspended Burkina Faso after military men usurped the interim government.17 When Yahyah Jammeh decided to cling onto power after losing the elections in The Gambia, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) rose against him and ensured he vacated the presidential seat for the rightful winner of the elections. Nigeria plays a huge political role in the African Union as well as ECOWAS.

The military has attempted coups over 200 times in Africa, with over 100 succeeding.18 However, this trend has reduced since the turn of the century. The last coup witnessed on the African soil was in 2015 in Burkina Faso. It took only six days before General Gilbert Diendéré's coup attempt was foiled.19 Other coup leaders who received stiff opposition from international organizations were Dadis Camara20 in Guinea in December 2008 and Moussa Sanogo21 of Mali in March 2012.

According to a publication by the African Development Bank, there were 99 coup attempts in Sub Saharan Africa between 1970 and 1989. This dropped to 67 between 1990 and 2010. The study also revealed a fall in autocratic governments in Africa and the rise of democratic governments between 1960 and 2010. By 2004, autocratic governments in Africa fell below democratic governments and the gap has continued to widen since then.22 In 2017, Angola's long time ruler, Jose Eduardo dos Santos stepped aside to allow the people elect a new president. The elections were organized on 23 August 2017 and João Lourenço of the ruling party won. On 26th September, 2017, João Lourenço was sworn in to end the reign of Africa's second longest serving president, dos Santos.23 Scholarly works reveal that hostile relations and reactions by international and domestic organizations have become a major barrier to usurpation of governments in Africa.

This clampdown on coup d'état and illegal withholding of power has not always been the case. This is the difference between the Fourth Republic and other periods of Nigeria's political history. Coup d'états were usually motivated by international bodies as well as domestic ones. This contributed to the demise of the Second Republic. Similarly, when Moshood Abiola's election was annulled in 1993, international organizations had instead pleaded with him to relinquish his mandate so that peace could reign in the country.24 The sustenance of democracy in Nigeria comes with the change in the approach to democratic governance by international and domestic organizations.

Nigerians are largely in agreement that democratic government is more favorable than other possible forms of government. However, the success of modern authoritarianism as experienced in countries like Russia and Rwanda may give the country new ideas. Rwanda has made remarkable progress under President Paul Kagame, rising from the throes of genocide to become one of the fastest growing economies in Africa.25

Yet, the divergent ethnic loyalties, the desire of ethnic groups to ascend the leadership of the country, and its influence on governance in Nigeria may make this impossible. Also, twice, two presidents of the Fourth Republic had tried to change the structure of the Nigerian government and failed woefully. Olusegun Obasanjo, in 2006, made an attempt to extend his tenure to a third term which would have required a constitutional change in the political structure of the country. The constitution review committee led by Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu declined to amend the constitution and ultimately ended Obasanjo's ambitions.26

In 2009, Goodluck Jonathan suggested another modification. He called for a single six year term for governors and presidents. This, he believed, would reduce the spate of violence that characterizes election periods and the rent seeking that comes with returning for a second term. Despite Jonathan proclaiming that he will not be a beneficiary of the amendment, the general public and participants at the National Conference met this attempt with stiff opposition and it never materialized.27 We can deduce that, no matter the intentions of the proponents of a restructuring, amending the constitution to redesign how the government runs will always meet stiff opposition and might possibly never materialize, except under an autocratic framework, as witnessed in the military era.

Thus the possibility of Nigeria entertaining a new form of government, as an alternative to democracy, is almost unrealistic. Citizens too are not seeking any different form of government. A popular opinion is that democracy has not failed the people; rather, Nigeria politicians are bedeviling the system of governance with their greed, ineptitude and corruption.

Nigeria's Political Party System

The continued growth of Nigeria's democracy seems more plausible in the near future. In this regard, we look at how political parties and political participation are developing.

In 2015, out of all 14 political parties that fielded candidates for the presidential elections, two parties attracted 98.92 per cent of the votes.28 In 2011, four political parties out of 20 shared 98.68 per cent of the votes.29 Five political parties shared 98.56 per cent of the votes in 2007.30 This is one lesser than the six political parties (out of 20) that shared 98.66 per cent of the votes in 2003.31 From this, we find Nigeria edging towards a two party system. Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)'s alliance with the most consistent opposition party, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), for the presidential elections, further corroborated the two party system. ACN had metamorphosed from Alliance for Democracy (AD) to Action Congress (AC) and finally Alliance for Progressive Change (APC) before the 2015 elections.

We also find that PDP's consistent victory at the polls was because it was the only political party with adequate presence in most Nigerian states. Asides from the two round voting system Nigeria runs, the spread helps the total numbers. In 1999, Alliance for Democracy, a South West based political party, formed a coalition for the election with the North based All People's Party to pose a significant opposition. When the coalition split, soon after the end of the elections, no political party posed any serious challenge to PDP for 16 years. It was not until another coalition between Northern and Southern political parties that PDP lost at the polls.

The Not too Young to Run bill which was passed in 2017 will allow candidates run without political parties. Due to the desperate demand for good governance, Nigerians may be inspired to seek new alternatives to current public office holders or familiar politicians. Nonetheless, trends reveal that political parties built around single personalities often fail at the presidential polls. A good indication of this is Muhammadu Buhari's consistent failure at the presidential polls, as well as others like him who banked on their personal influence rather than the structure of political parties. The former military general would have lost the 2015 elections if he did not join forces with the new alliance, APC.

In addition, despite the seeming public displeasure at Jonathan's administration, the former president garnered 12 million votes, only approximately 2.5 million votes lesser than General Muhammadu Buhari's total votes. Therefore, we attributed Buhari's victory in 2015, not only to the political alliance, but also to the factionalism that befell PDP just before the elections. The movement of PDP loyalists to APC towards the election may be said to be the deciding factor that played in favor of the former military general and against the former university professor, Goodluck Jonathan.

The Nigerian political sphere is built around personalities rather than ideologies. This is why it is easy for politicians to switch across political parties and have their followers throng after them. This causes most political parties to have no identities asides what their foremost candidates give them. Party identities can change at any time. To be a Nigerian politician, one need not have sets of principles to be known by. One starts by winning people's followership through either philanthropy or service. When one decides to contest a post, these loyalists will help you spread your message and win more loyalists. Many times this costs money, lots of money. In small political parties, usually one or a few personalities have these followers behind them. In large parties, the numbers of these personalities are more. Therefore, in a party like PDP, you will have thousands of personalities who have groups of loyalists behind them. The more of those you have, the higher your chances of winning an election.

Thus, when APC formed their alliance, defeating PDP was still going to be a herculean task. However, disagreements within the ruling party, PDP, led to several of these personalities crossing to APC. This meant more personalities for APC. More personalities meant millions of followers had left the shade of PDP's umbrella and swung the brooms of APC. When the country went to the polls, APC won.

An example of the importance of such party structures could be found in Oyo State. While Abiola Ajimobi contested elections on other platforms, he did not win, until he joined the then ACN. This victory was possible due to both the death of political juggernaut, Lamidi Adedibu and the increasing influence of ACN in the South West. Likewise, when Rashidi Ladoja left the ruling party, his return to the summit of Oyo State politics with his newly found party, Accord Party, proved futile. Another example is the success of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in some states in Eastern Nigeria. APC's success in that part of the country (e.g. Imo State) was due to its merger with a faction of APGA. While this is not always the case, more often than not, Nigerian politics thread that path.

APC and PDP now represent the largest parties in Nigeria and most influential politicians, in the Nigerian sphere, belong to either of these parties. Thus, if any new party will disrupt these two, either the party will need personalities from these parties, or an unexpected and widespread epiphany hits the Nigerian electorate to turn them in support of the new party/individual. The latter is highly unlikely.

The only other thing that may cause Nigeria changing into multiparty system will be the rise of factions in the political parties. Due to the way the parties are formed, we cannot rule out this possibility. Also, due to the absence of a central ideology that binds parties together, Nigerian political parties are prone to dissolution based on minor disagreements between political juggernauts within the parties. A Nigerian politician can switch from one political party to another and return to the former political party again, all based on agreements and disagreements. One example is Rochas Okorocha. Since 1999, he has moved across almost all the major parties. In 1999, Rochas contested in the PDP primaries but lost. Then he moved to All Nigerians People's Party where he failed with his presidential aspirations. He returned to PDP, and then moved again to Action Alliance for another shot at the presidential seat. He returned to PDP again after the 2007 elections. Then, switching to APGA, he finally won the gubernatorial election in Imo State. In 2013, he won his reelection but on the platform of APC.

We have begun seeing these cracks again in PDP. In 2017, due to the crisis rocking the PDP, some members sought to register a new political party called the Advanced People's Democratic Party (APDP). The aggrieved PDP members had sent an application to INEC shortly after the court judgment that sacked Ahmed Makarfi's caretaker committee in favor of Senator Ali Modu Sheriff's faction of the same party.32

PDP has a long history of political in-fightings.33 Nevertheless, its position as Nigeria's foremost political party was unchanging until the grand alliance that led to the creation of APC. Although still struggling to maintain its new house, APC is just as likely to have political in-fightings as PDP. After winning the elections in 2015, several in-fightings arose within the ranks of APC. In Enugu, the APC chapter broke into two factions with the two factions announcing the suspensions of each other. Some of the party chieftains also voiced their concerns and dissociated from some of Buhari's policies.34

We identify that, although Nigeria appears to have narrow electoral competition between the two political parties, the parties are just as likely to break up to form new parties at the slightest provocations of influential party members. We are also open to the slight chance that more people will have access to the Internet and join other Nigerians online. Nigerians may use online platforms to unite in the demands for change, which may instruct the formation of new parties and the rise of new political vanguards.

One would think that due to the ethnic diversity of the country and the recurring ethnic conflicts, Nigerian politics would be torn along ethnic lines. This is not the case. Nigerian politicians are generally united and ethnicity based parties fail on the national scene. When Odumegwu Ojukwu and Muhammadu Buhari contested on the platforms of ethnicity-based political parties in 2003, both lost against Olusegun Obasanjo. When Buhari contested against Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, he lost again. In 2007, Atiku Abubakar contested on the platform of Action Congress, which was based in the South West. Politicians in Nigeria generally see beyond ethnic differences when dealing with one another or their party followers.

This does not mean ethnic loyalties do not play any role in Nigerian politics. It just takes a different form. First, most political parties have ethnic foundations. However, the most successful ones have learnt to flatten the ethnic curve in their parties. What ethnic loyalists do instead is try to bring the whole party's support towards their ethnic group. In order to cater for the ethnic diversity, zoning was introduced by the country's top political parties. Zoning is a systematic rotation of political power across different ethnic regions in Nigeria. The fear of domination by one ethnic group over another is a threat to political stability in Nigeria. Therefore, political parties have tried to guard against this by using the zoning system. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was the first to introduce the zoning when it appointed public officials into key offices to reflect the geographical spread of the country. PDP, the first pan-Nigerian political party, carried on this system and several other political parties later joined in. Pundits have questioned this system due to its potential to lock out qualified candidates due to their ethnicities.

The rotation currently occurs between the North and the South. In 1999, political parties fielded candidates from South West. After Obasanjo ruled for eight years, he would relinquish power to a northerner. Yar'adua's death and Jonathan's ascension to the post of the president disrupted the flow and after Jonathan won his re-election, northerners were at it again, to assume the top position of the Nigerian government. Major political parties expect to field northern candidates in 2019. By 2030, unless political parties abandon the zoning system, Nigeria would have a president from southern Nigeria.

The success of the zoning system, coupled with the federal character, has abated ethnically influenced political disruption of the Nigerian government.35 Ethnic leaders believe the wheel will soon turn towards them. Although this has not stopped other ethnic groups from contesting primaries and elections against zoned candidates, the outcomes have always favored the zoned candidates. When Goodluck Jonathan became president in 2011, his incumbency and agitations in South South Nigeria may have played a huge role. Yet, we realized that in cases where there was a contest between candidates from different regions, citizens voted along ethnic lines. The 2011 elections painted a vivid picture of that division as Buhari won only in northern states while Jonathan's victory came from the south. The only outlier was Osun State, where Nuhu Ribadu won. In those cases, neutral ethnic groups decide the elections.

The rotational policy of allotting political nominations seems to have worked so far and kept multi-ethnic parties together. A systemic failure in zoning system might fuel ethnic conflicts in the country. It may also lead to the breakup of political parties.

Due to the lack of ideologies to ascribe to political parties in Nigeria, we find it difficult to envisage the kind of policies ruling parties will institute. The political vanguards of the parties determine the policy directions of their parties and the government, if they assume power. When these vanguards switch parties, their plans go with them and become the plans for the new party. For Buhari, his mantra to fight corruption and ensure transparency was unchanging as he switched from one party to another until his victory. His plan has led to resurgence of anti-corruption agencies. It also aided the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and the redesign of the ministerial structure of the country. The absence of loyalty to political parties ensures that the political direction of the country will be determined not by which party is ruling, but by which individual takes charge of the country's foremost positions.

Nigeria's growth will depend on the quality of its leadership. We cannot predict where future leadership will come from. However, such leaders may need to ride on the wings of the major political parties. Nigeria's demand for change can influence how quickly these leaders rise through the ranks of party politics. If voter turnout continues to worsen, the familiar politicians will continue to hang around. Poor implementation of electoral promises can follow two paths; citizens show more apathy and continue to conduct their affairs in spite of the system or frustrations will heighten, combined with the increasing connectivity of the world, civil demonstrations against the government will rise and citizens will try to force the change they want. These demonstrations may result in new reforms or inspire people to change their leadership during elections.

In conclusion, more citizens must march to the polls to influence the outcomes of elections. We envisage that this is possible in the near future with the rise in the use of social media (especially if coupled with voter education of the Nigerian masses). Nigerians have also shown that when pushed to the wall, they can turn their backs on the government. Thus, if Nigerians do not make attempts to change the course the country is currently travelling, they will do so when the state of the country becomes dire. At that point, as trends have revealed, one of two things is likely to happen: there will be an intense call for restructuring and perhaps ethnicity motivated secession; or, there will be a rise of new political vanguards who will make new promises.

Chapter Seven

The Highways To Our Future

The question we are trying to answer, and for which we have done the trend analysis in the past four chapters, remains: "Where do we see Nigeria in 2030?" We have chosen to focus on how economic, social and political trends will affect Nigeria's structure in the coming years. In the face of agitating secessionists, rising unemployment and poverty rates, and unending ethnic clashes, one of the most heated debates about Nigeria, revolves around how likely it is that the country can remain a single entity. Will Nigeria succumb to the pressure to restructure or will the country head towards balkanization? What activities will lead us to these events?

We have on our hands an understanding of the political, economic and social situations in Nigeria and we have carefully ploughed the data fields to acquaint ourselves with the important statistics of trends that are likely to shape our collective future.

In chapter two, we expounded upon the routes taken to arrive at our scenarios. After conducting a trend analysis, we select some of the most important trends to derive our driving points. Driving points are a way of thinning the numerous trends we derived in our Political, Economic and Social (PES) analysis. They also help us create a vivid picture by combining related trends together thereby allowing us make meaning out of them.

For example, if the GDP per capita continues to rise (economic trend), but we notice that the poverty rate is rising at the same rate (social trend), we may find the answer to our obvious debacle in the cost of governance (political trend) and the unabated corruption. We also noticed that Nigeria's population is growing at an alarming rate, which can either put the country's resources in danger by widening the poverty net, or create more hands that can drive the economy. Looking at the state of the education sector, we rationalize that the latter is less likely. Then we can infer that the high cost of governance is vastly reducing the amount of money accessible to the general populace. Since we also know that government spending is very important in driving the economy, we can make deductions that lowering the size and cost of government will have a positive impact on the standard of living of the citizens of the country. This will especially hold when education is made a priority and corruption is, simultaneously, slowly extinguished.

Therefore, when we bring out our driving points, they should be important points backed up by several trends. We can say driving points help us group related trends together to make sense out of the volume of similar and contrastive data we have.

With the driving points, which should be few, we can plot an Uncertainty-Importance graph to determine which two trends will form the axes of our quadrants.

So far, we have found that calls for restructuring still reverberate through Nigeria's political sphere. These demands for restructuring from respected nationalists as well as from everyday citizens. It was also included as a major recommendation at the 2014 National Conference. On one hand, Nigeria appears to be at the highest moment of fracture since the civil war while; paradoxically, on the other hand, the country has enjoyed political stability for such a prolonged period that some millennials have no memories of the explosiveness of the military era. We have also enjoyed peaceful transitions from one party to another at both state and federal levels. If the government refuses to accede to the idea of restructuring but provides better governance, the calls for restructuring may diminish. However, if the government continues to be heavily mismanaged, the political stability it has enjoyed so far may give way to increased calls for restructuring and public protests.

Despite the progress in political stability, voter turnout has dropped drastically. This may signify voter apathy caused by persistent electoral irregularities and non-fulfillment of promises by politicians. Yet, Nigerians would rather endure the growth in democracy than experience any other form of government. In addition to this, the world is more intolerant of autocratic governments. Fewer coups are successful in Africa and the continent is fast leaving the era of violent overthrow of governments. However, we cannot completely rule this out in any African country as our democracies are still in a relatively nascent state. Recently, an unprecedented event occurred in Zimbabwe. The military successfully unseated the long serving president, Robert Mugabe, and the international community, rather than intervene, merely spectated.1 However, rather than hold onto power, the military installed a new president and handed over power to him. Perhaps, this might be a new methodology for ending dictatorships.

INEC's success at curtailing election irregularities may improve voter interest in electoral processes. Politicians will also benefit from the successful implementation of electoral promises, as the trust citizens put in government will tremendously improve.

Nigeria's political structure has gravitated towards a two-party system from the multiparty system. These two parties, the PDP and the APC, are the only political parties that have a widespread reach across the country to challenge one another at the national level. In the last election, Nigerians showed that they could make choices between these two parties when they successfully ousted the ruling party in favor of the opposition. However, this change in government rested mostly on the candidate and the party support rather than the party values. We realized that Nigerian political parties are driven by political figures rather than ideologies. We could not find a solid ideological difference between the two major parties. Instead, we were able to reveal that the personal agenda of a politician eventually dictates the kind of reforms the government will institute when that politician gets into power. Such agenda may be carried from one political party to another. Due to the sameness of both political parties, we concluded that we should be more concerned about who emerges the leader of the country than which political party produces that candidate.

One thing we also noticed is that Nigeria's major political parties do not allow ethnic jingoism, a trait which is prevalent in Nigerian society. Although there is an acknowledgement of ethnic loyalty within these parties, the political interest of the group, overrides such loyalties. Parties use the zoning system to accommodate the ethnically diverse membership of their party structures. The success and respect for this zoning system within political parties will influence stability within these parties. Politicians who are resolute about seeking victory at the polls will pull out of political parties unable to provide them with a platform to run and they will join other parties.

We also found that political parties where ethnic loyalty prevails generally do not succeed in elections at the national level. Due to this, the government's intention to allow individuals contest without political parties may seem laudable but such individuals might find it difficult to succeed without the structure and support that the major political parties enjoy. At the other extreme, we cannot rule out that a single person can drum up enough support and ride on general frustration to defeat party candidates. While this is quite possible at the state level, it is more unlikely at the national level.

Trends also reveal that unity within these parties may be under threat and if agitations within the top political parties continue, we might be on our way to the multiparty system again. Factions are threatening the unity of political parties as political leaders try to stake their claims and authorities. It is a clash of egos. However, judging by the history of Nigerian politics, there are neither permanent enemies nor foes. Just as these political leaders can lead breakouts, they can also unite within minutes. If political leaders perceive that they are undermined in their party decisions, they will, most likely, seek to lead a breakout. If party leaders manage to keep their houses in order, we will have parties that are more formidable. Otherwise, we will have several political parties jostling for attention.

One of the most exciting discoveries in our economic trends is how deeply Nigeria's economic fortunes are hinged on the volatile oil market. Our research reveals that the rise and fall in oil prices lead to a corresponding rise and fall in government revenue. This makes Nigeria's economic strength too dependent on external forces. In one future, the Nigerian government will learn from previous recessions caused by drastic drops in oil price and become relentless in its pursuit of diversification. In the alternate future, the government continues to believe that oil will remain in demand and upsurges will complement shortfalls in oil price.

We can revel in the statistics showing the growth of the non-oil sector, which now generates as much revenue as the oil sector. However, our revelry becomes short-lived when we realize that this growth is highly dependent on the stability of the oil market. This is because we are still import dependent and require a regular supply of foreign exchange to run local businesses. If the government creates new export friendly policies to incentivize the exportation of local goods on a large scale, we can balance our dependency on oil revenue and become a less volatile economy. There is also the future where the government sustains the dependency on oil and overlooks the growth of the other sector. In this future, the government introduces policies that maximize its revenue but undermines the progress of exporting companies.

The noteworthy rise in the demand for renewable energy means Nigeria may suffer oil revenue blight in the future, as several countries shift their energy sources to renewable energy. Another trend revealed how the private companies, such as Tesla, are leading the switch to renewable energy. Despite these indications, Nigeria plans to increase its oil production as the federal government indicated in the ERGP. The Paris Agreement-inspired global action towards climate change has had several countries start journeys to end their fossil fuel consumption. Nigeria becomes vulnerable to the decisions of buyer countries and may suffer from prolonged shortage in demand for oil. In one future, the government successfully diversifies our revenue base, and the shift to the demand for new energy sources will not have a drastic effect on our economy. On the other hand, the country may remain slow in its diversification efforts and when demands drop, we will start to borrow in order to maintain a viable economy.

The rise of Nigeria to the summit of Africa's economic ladder provides us with some joy on our economic progress. The rebasing of the economy helped us realize the contribution of each sector to the GDP and shed more light on how much some of these sectors have grown since 1999. The rise of the ICT sector and the agricultural sector provides more avenues to further our economic growth in the coming years. We may continue to enjoy these events if the government reduces its interference in markets. On the other hand, if the government chooses to regulate new markets heavily as recent indications show, this will stifle growth. Such regulations may assert the government's control over commercial activities, but this will be at the expense of the development of new industries.

Another thing to notice is that in areas where the government allowed the private sector take charge, things have generally become better. Examples include the pension scheme and the telecommunications sector. The privatization of the Nigerian power sector is an example of privatization gone wrong. The absence of competition makes the whole process futile. Thus, when the government seeks to privatize sectors where it is administratively inefficient, the government must make several options available to the citizens.

The per capita income of the average Nigerian multiplied by almost ten folds since 1997. Generally, we could say Nigerians are better off than they were in 1999. The governments of the Fourth Republic have put Nigeria on an impressive trajectory for economic growth. Debts have been written off and the foreign reserve is rising again. Despite this growth, the Nigerian masses believe they were well off a decade ago than they are now. This is due to the rising unemployment and poverty rates. If cost of governance continues to skyrocket, civil servants will struggle to have their salaries paid. On the other hand, if Nigeria cuts down on the cost of governance, more money will be available for the large number of workers on its payroll. This will translate to a higher consumer spending and drop poverty rate.

Nigeria's ability to avoid another recession will depend on the country's success in its drive towards diversifying its revenue base and strengthening its financial institutions. What weakens financial institutions are rising non-performing loans which may be caused by poor corporate governance, harsh economic climes or a poor justice system that fails to keep borrowers accountable. If banks keep non-performing loans at bay, they will be able to help the country stay afloat. However, if the non-performing loans continue to rise as the trends indicate, we may be on the verge of another recession, especially if the justice system shows no sign of improvement in this regard.

The government's support of the private sector and entrepreneurship is laudable. Initiatives have been taken to improve the business environment of the country. This has resulted in Nigeria's leap on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index chart. If this growth continues, two possible outcomes could play out. In one, the government continues to introduce policies that favor investors and businesses. The barriers to entry in creating new businesses will be lowered and more people will start businesses. This will hasten the government's quest for diversification and employment rates will go up. In another possible outcome, the government continues to neglect infrastructural development and, due to this, business owners face high cost of doing business. If the economy experiences any shock, a lot of businesses will close down and wait for favorable times to resume their activities.

An important element to Nigeria's economic growth is education. The country scores poorly in providing quality education for its citizens. In one possible course of events, the government raises the budgetary allocation for education consistently in its yearly budgets, cracks down on mediocre operation in the public education system by cleansing it of unqualified teachers, outdated curriculums and inefficient facilities. With regards to education, the emphasis should be on quality delivery so that companies begin to look forward to more qualified job applicants, leading to increased productivity.

Twice we have highlighted how important the Nigerian justice system is to the growth of the country. Without a functional justice system, corruption will continue to thrive unabated, banks will crumble from inability to recover non-performing loans, and governance will suffer (as it will be difficult to uphold the rule of law). Alternatively, if the government strengthens the justice system, it will bring about faster progress in clamping down on corruption, in supporting the banking system and promoting good governance.

Due to the infrastructural decay in the country, the government will need a lot of investment to catch up with the demand for good infrastructure. We envisage that the government will continue to borrow heavily to meet the financial costs of the development, leading to rising debt levels. Interest rates for government bonds will drop as the economy continues to stabilize, so they serve as a channel for securing favorable funding. At the other extreme, the government is unable to meet infrastructure costs and it will have several projects abandoned or moving at snail's pace. This will be because of disagreements with international organizations on fiscal policies as well as the keenness of the government to avoid a debt trap. We may also tread the path of reduced borrowing if the government becomes resilient in its drive to raise internal revenue to meet capital investment costs. If this happens, government will make efforts to capture more people in its tax net and raise income generation from taxation.

Talking about taxation, efforts by the government to widen its tax net have been futile. However, new reforms are being introduced to make some improvements. If these are successful, the government can increase its revenue and carry out more projects. One thing we fear is that the government may overburden the citizenry with taxes and, consequently, citizens may start working out new ways to evade taxes altogether. In a bid to clamp down on tax evaders, the government may become more forceful in its approach. If the government does not take tax matters very seriously and depends, instead, on oil revenue and loans, we envisage more hiccups in the realm of infrastructural development.

We cannot overlook our growth in the agricultural sector. The government has done tremendously well in improving agricultural productivity. Yet, the country's fixation on producing several kinds of farm produces instead of focusing on our strengths may undermine our agricultural growth. On one extreme, we find Nigeria prioritizing local agricultural production so much it places sanctions on the importation of certain kinds of farm produces. In cases where the qualities of the local farm products are below the imported ones, importers will seek new ways to smuggle farm products into the country. On the other hand, the country focuses on a number of products where it holds a competitive advantage and supports the agricultural sector to produce enough for local consumption as well as exportation.

What is most worrying about the call for restructuring is the predicament of the state governments. Most state governments are fully dependent on the federal government to sustain the cost of their public service. If most states are not economically viable, we envisage that the federal government will continue to hold more power at the centre. Yet, the inability of states to adequately cater for their indigenes might heighten the tension and raise more calls for restructuring as the protesting populace will believe that if the states are in control of more resources, they will be able to cater to the needs of their constituencies. At the other extreme, states gradually become viable and the federal government becomes less involved in financially backing state government expenses. There will be fewer calls for restructuring as both the state governments and the federal government can now dedicate their resources to the improvement of the country.

Success in the fight against corruption will go a long way in improving the fortunes of the country. The approach the government chooses to take is of great importance. In one possible course of events, the government continues to pay lip service to the fight against corruption, the justice system remains inefficient, anti-corruption agencies sweep corruption cases under the carpet, while at other times cases are inconclusive leading looters to successfully make away with public funds. In another possible future, the government strengthens anti-corruption agencies and the justice system to create the right foundations to address corruption; the government dismisses and prosecutes corrupt officials; and, government puts in place extra measures to reduce corruption in the public service.

In the social environment, we noticed how fast the Nigerian population is growing. We also noticed how the poverty rate is fast rising. The country still struggles with providing healthcare cover to the citizens. More health professionals continue to leave the country. Although access to water and sanitation facilities has improved, there is still a lot to be done to achieve desirable ratios. For state governments, welfare programs are usually short-lived. Living standards are dropping as the government is unable to introduce and finance sustainable social welfare plans. The rising population leads us to envisage that things could become worse.

In another future, we see Nigeria perform tremendously well in key services delivery areas. The government becomes more financially capable to initiate improvements in healthcare, unemployment, poverty, housing and so on. This will occur as a result of an upward surge in the country's economy that leaves more finances at the disposal of the country to carry out important projects. One remarkable move the government can make is to delegate the delivery of these programs to the private sector.

How the government tackles the unemployment rate remains a big question. On one extreme, the government may start hiring unemployed youths. Although these youths will mostly be underemployed, at least they will be off the unemployment list. For some, these jobs may serve as the bridge to bigger positions while others may just settle in them. The government will eventually feel the burden of its new wage bill. If at that moment the government is unable to cater to its new employees, we envisage more strike actions. Otherwise, the government must seek alternatives to pay its employees as it entertains new budgetary policies. At the other extreme, the government continues to reduce its wage bill while creating an enabling environment for the private sector to employ the unemployed. This also includes fostering new businesses and enacting new policies that are less stringent on the purses of private businesses.

One of the key social amenities that government has failed to deliver is uninterrupted electricity supply. Access to electricity is a key indicator of standard of living and potential for economic growth. We envisage a future where the government optimizes its production and distribution as it works out new reforms to enable provision of stable power supply. These may include democratization of energy where households have access to affordable power generation facilities while the current distribution companies supply electricity only as backup during power shortages. Another alternative is the proper privatization of the power sector to allow for competition. On the other hand, the government relies on its existing infrastructure and continues to move very slowly towards the provision of uninterrupted power supply while allowing new private owners of the distribution companies run a monopoly. Cost of doing business will remain high and several businesses will close down as soon as they feel pressure from fuel price hikes.

Ethnic relations are currently at a delicate stage in Nigeria. As we found out, certain Igbo groups have risen severally to demand secession and the country is a boiling pot of ethnic clashes. Fatal clashes between members of ethnic groups in numerous regions within the country, many of whom do not even belong to any of the three largest ethnic tribes, have been reported. For Nigeria to remain united, such ethnic clashes need to be reduced to the barest minimum. Thus, we envisage that in one future, Nigeria's campaign on ethnic tolerance yields fruits after the right facilities, like the zoning system and quality education on peace and conflict resolution, are put in place to ensure cohesion in disagreeing ethnic regions. Politicians desist from stoking fires of ethnic discord while law enforcement agencies quickly clamp down on brewing conflicts. In another future, the country keeps on neglecting ethnic conflicts and only takes action when they snowball into large-scale conflicts. One of these conflicts will lead to spontaneous conflicts in other regions, which may eventually lead to the breakup of the country.

Akin to ethnic uprisings are attacks by rebel groups within the country. The most prevalent and most deadly rebel group since Nigeria's independence remains Boko Haram. Others include MEND, Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force and Oodua People's Congress. These groups have threatened the country's existence at one point or the other. In one extreme possibility, the Nigerian army remains resolute and superior against these groups, meets rebel groups with stiff opposition and renders them incapacitated after long deadly duels. As the strength of the army grows, they are able to nip rebel groups in the bud, before they become significant threats. At the other extreme, the Nigerian army records early successes against rebel groups but new groups surface with access to more powerful weapons. Some of these groups consolidate and become bigger threats. These new insurgents would gain larger territories in the country and threaten to form their own state(s). Nigeria thus becomes a hotbed for militia groups.

At the heart of ethnic uprisings and rebel attacks is the inability of the government to meet the expectations of the citizenry. Rebel and ethnic groups have similar requests of the federal government. Except in the case of Boko Haram, whose demands keep changing as the group evolves, the inability of the Nigerian government to properly cater to the needs of the masses, the widespread corruption, extravagant spending and misappropriation of government resources that exists in the government are the reasons advanced by most insurgent groups for their actions. In light of this, Nigeria's future hinges on the ability of the government to assuage such agitations by investing more in the welfare of citizens, translating economic growth into social development, implementing important economic reforms with the right immediacy and creating an accountable and transparent government. In one extreme, we envision that the government does just this and creates an enabling environment for the growth of the average Nigerian. At the other extreme, governments maintain their history of failed policies, corruption, and lack of accountability. Public offices remain inefficient and civil matters are treated with little urgency; citizens do not feel the effects of the economic growth or, worse, the country slumps into economic crises repeatedly.

At this point, if the government is oppressive, rebel groups will rise against it. Conflicts will emanate from different parts of the country. These developments will put Nigeria on the verge of war. If the government is weak, rebel groups will rise and the citizenry will entertain several options that will revolve around restructuring or balkanization.

Civil freedom will play a significant role in citizens' reactions to government actions, policy formulations and the general growth of the country. The rise in the use of social media has offered Nigerians a new lease of freedom to question government claims, actions and policies. The government has also tried to halt this freedom through legislative action, but the move proved futile. One thing we also recorded is that more offline protests are being kick-started online. Thus, a rise in the connectivity of Nigerians will give more power to the populace to demand good governance. Also, the government will have the options to either prune this power or let it flourish. In one future, the government allows the use of social media and civil societies flourish to enable healthy conversations between the government and the governed. This may also mean the government is open to the consequences of allowing such freedom. The government thus concentrates on ensuring good governance rather than attack the channels through which citizens can question it.

In the other future, the government takes a heavy stance on the use of social media and civil freedom in general. The government arrests and queries online personalities who make statements it considers offensive or deems to threaten national peace. Security operatives victimize the leaders of civil groups. Civil groups are also heavily regulated. New and old civil groups are required to make new commitments to the government and given new limitations. Civil unrests are sparse. However, when they eventually happen, they will be devastating.

In the last few paragraphs, we successfully compressed data got from chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6 to acquaint us with the important patterns relevant to our scenario planning. Our goal is to reduce these into a smaller number of driving forces. These driving points will be used to develop our scenarios and it is important we only have a handful of them. The driving forces will also help us group related trends together so we may form vivid pictures of the future.

First Driving Point: The Role and Stability of the State

The first driving point is related to the role and stability of the State. The ability of the Nigerian government to keep the country under its control and under the umbrella of the constitution is perhaps one of the biggest deciders of our future as a country. Is the government able to record any success against rebel and terrorist groups? How does the government address its worsening voter apathy? How much interference does the government have in the social and economic lives of Nigerians? Will the government continue to hold on to schemes that are better run by the private sector? Is the government able to direct public administration efficiently or will gaps continue to appear that make the people question the success of the federal structure? How well are state governments striving towards and achieving financial independence? Will the federal government continue to protect the state governments from insolvency? The government's ability to appoint political officers from a wider range of ethnic groups through the Federal Character will also play an important role in ensuring the stability of the country.

Second Driving Point: The State's Ability to Deliver on Key Services

The second driving point is related to the state's ability to deliver on key services. Citizens of the country have a series of demands they feel the government should meet. Can the government lower the unemployment rate? The steps the government takes in doing this will also matter and determine the long-term outcome of this expectation. The failed health and housing schemes need intervention, will the government continue to encourage state controlled approaches such as the NHIS or would this be within the purview of the private sector? Government's success or failure in tackling corruption will also sway public reaction. If the government fails in lowering unemployment rate, delivering stable power and water supply, creating a sustainable and efficient health and housing scheme, paying salaries, and mitigating corruption, citizens might increasingly see no need for the State.

The success of the pension scheme and internet connectivity was hinged on government taking a step back and setting up an enabling environment for the private sector to take charge. Will the government take a cue from this approach and allow the private sector become the major players in some of these social service areas?

Third Driving Point: The Future of Ethnic Relations

Perhaps one of the biggest questions of Nigeria's unity, our third driving point, is related to the future of our ethnic relations. With questions raised by founding fathers of the country and discussions around ethnic relations still heating up the polity in modern Nigeria, the state of ethnic relations in the country remains highly impactful on the future of Nigeria. The government's willingness to include more ethnic groups in governance will dictate the reaction of rebel groups from those ethnic regions. How the government manages rising secessionist groups is another critical decider of Nigeria's future. Can we experience lesser ethnic clashes or will things eventually spin out of hand? The ability of major political parties to keep the zoning system at play will have a huge effect on ethnic relations.

Fourth Driving Point: Domestic Economic Stability

The decisions the country's leaders make over oil dependence and how they follow through these decisions will be a major decider of whether we are at risk of another economic recession or whether we should expect growth. Since the non-oil sector is growing at an impressive rate, export diversification becomes an important instrument in absorbing oil shocks. In order to support the growth of the local market, the country will need to improve its education system to better the quality of labor available to drive local companies. If the government can maximize its tax base, it will have more funds to pay salaries and develop the country's infrastructure. Creating a diverse revenue base will put less strain on the financial sector. The type of trade policies the government makes, such as those affecting import and export, the stability and strength of the financial institutions, and judicial reforms play major roles in creating the right picture of how our future will look like.

Fifth Driving Point: Rule of Law and Civil Freedom

Nigeria's advancement in civil freedom is one of the remarkable progresses we have made since the start of the Fourth Republic. Although we still have a long way to go, it is a significant progress from what obtained during the military era. How the government manages people's access, use and reaction to information about the state is one thing that requires special attention. Directly related to this is whether the government will allow the rule of law to prevail in its relations. Will the government exert force in dealing with citizens with dissenting opinions? Will politicians continue to enjoy immunity against prosecution while the masses suffer long sentences for minor offences? How will the government react to the rising influence of social media?

Sixth Driving Point: The Global Economy

The 2008 global economic recession showed that Nigeria is susceptible to external economic shocks. Asides this, we need to consider our fortune if the world makes a complete shift to renewable energy. If the world's switch away from crude oil remains slow, Nigeria can sustain its current economic model for a longer period and be healthy. On the other hand, if the change is sudden, the country may be left without much support and struggle to find balance again. Nigeria is also subjected to oil prices fixed by OPEC and the organization's control of the supply of the world's biggest energy source. A global recession will also adversely affect Nigeria.

Therefore, we have the six important driving points relevant to our scenario planning. These six points have a defining influence over the future of our country. As we discussed in chapter 2, the next step is to plot these driving points on a graph to explore uncertainty and impact on the future of the country. The journey is straightforward from here.

The purpose of the graph is to help us find out the most uncertain and most important driving points. We need to pick two trends that will serve as the axes of our scenario matrix. These two represent the most impactful and most unpredictable trends.

From the analysis of our trends, we found that the most uncertain trend will be whether the state is able to deliver on social development. Most Nigerians, whichever region they come from, want a country that puts them at the centre of development. When such social expectations are not met, agitations take different forms. Sometimes, they morph into ethnic uprisings, other times they result in the formation of rebel groups, or even protests and strike actions. The rising population, the progress of democracy, the unpredictable local and global markets all play significant roles in whether the government—or even the people—will achieve social development at an acceptable level. The outcome of this will determine if the statehood of Nigeria will stand the test of time.

The most impactful trend rests on the kind of decisions the government takes over the next decade and whether (and how) it keeps the country together during this period. Will the government become overbearing in its bid to achieve its aims? The government may lose its power to influence the direction of the State, causing the citizens to seek a redesign of the federal structure.

We acknowledge that there might be dissenting opinions about our choice of the most impactful and most uncertain trends. What we know is that whatever other choice is made, results might take different routes but they will be similar. Meticulous care was taken to carry out a broad analysis of the indicators that formed our trends. Although we may have skipped a number of important trends, we have sufficiently covered what is required to make the significant deductions.

The trend with the greatest impact, the role and stability of the state, represents the horizontal axis. The state may succeed in keeping the country united while ensuring the polity is stable. Thus, we tagged the state a Formidable State. The formidable state may be heavily involved in good governance or become repressive to sustain its unpopular policies. We label the other extreme of the horizontal axis "A Weak State". We envisage that at that stage, citizens have begun to question the usefulness of the government, whether or not social policies are successful.

On the vertical axis, we have the trend with the greatest uncertainty, which is whether the State will deliver on key services. The ability of the state to deliver—and manner in which the state delivers—key services is critical. We are uncertain about whether economic growth will translate to better standard of living for the Nigerian people. According to our trend analysis, economic growth and quality standard of living are not transitive. One does not necessarily lead to the other.

The scenarios in the four quadrants represent the four likely futures of Nigeria. The design of the matrix helps us easily match different extremes of our most impactful and most uncertain trends together to help us figure out the scenarios in each quadrant of the matrix.

In one quadrant where we have the Formidable State matched with the State's ability to provide key services—that forms our first scenario. The second scenario envisages a weak state whose role is limited in the delivery of key services to the citizens. The third quadrant reveals our third scenario where we have a formidable state that fails to deliver key services to the citizens. The state manages to hold the country together under repressive rule. The fourth quadrant represents our fourth scenario where the state struggles to hold itself together as it continues to fail in ensuring good standard of living for the citizens.

This is the end of our trend analysis. The scenarios we derived here are a result of our close examination of social, economic and political indicators in the previous four chapters. In the next four chapters, we explore each scenario and discuss, in retrospect, how our future would be by 2030.

Chapter Eight

Full Course

It is October 1, 2030 and the Independence Day celebrations have begun. Nigerians are celebrating 70 years of independence with pomp and pageantry. The mood is even across most of the cities and towns in the country. Everyone can see and feel the need to engage in the festivity. For a while, Nigerians have believed that the country can work as one indivisible entity.

At the Eagles Square, soldiers line up to raise the national flag, decked in smart green uniforms. In attendance are several dignitaries and a number of representatives from other African countries. Between 2010 and 2013, the government had gone three years in a row without holding any celebrations at the Eagle Square. This was due to both a terrorist attack that took place in 2010 and the general atmosphere of insecurity in the country at that time. In order not to give new terrorist groups like the Boko Haram any opportunity to hit the country at its core, the government avoided large gatherings at the Eagle Square and moved celebrations to the Presidential Villa. These two sources of threat to public peace, Boko Haram and the general state of insecurity in the country, no longer exist. The government now has terrorism under its control and the country has made remarkable economic and social progress over the decade.

In his speech, the president reiterates the significance of Nigeria's unity in diversity and the firmness of the federal government in keeping the country united. Nigeria would remain indivisible and the country will continue to march forward as one nation. His speech underlines how much progress we have made, especially as one nation over the past decade. It also singles out how, despite continuous threats, we still have a country where we all embrace the ethnic and religious differences of one another and how people are actually working together to help the country reach new heights.

Nigerians have heard this kind of speech in different forms and across different regimes over the years. However, they are starting to believe that Nigeria could progress as one nation; and, even when the country hits an obstacle, the question of the statehood of Nigeria does not come up. In previous decades, many Nigerians disregarded such public announcement. Citizens could not see the effect of the country's economic progress in their everyday lives. Thus, when information such as Nigeria's rise to the summit of Africa's economic ladder hit the news headlines in 2015, the citizens rightly disregarded it. Analysts and political pundits made several comments on social media and in carefully written articles on major newspaper sites on how such progress was cosmetic.

This has changed. Citizens are greeting the president's address with so much optimism and they can easily relate with most of the developments the president describes. The government has made progress in uniting the country. More importantly, people can see the positive changes in their lives.

Starting with security, the government created several joint task forces that comprised the Nigerian Army and the Nigerian Police to clamp down on terrorist groups. Although this meant that the government sometimes infringed on the rights of civilians, the government was resolute in its resolve to rid the country of security threats in its approach to distilling the country of security threats. It was normal to read in the news that soldiers broke into a man's apartment on the suspicion that he was the ringleader of a rebel group that sought to divide the country. Sometimes, gatherings dispersed upon hearing information about advancing soldiers. People were sometimes randomly arrested and released only a few days later. Although the government tried to reduce wrong arrests and crackdowns, it was also not willing to lower the intensity of its crackdown on insurgency. In addition to the local task forces, the country had initiated coordinated military efforts with Cameroon, Chad and Niger to stifle terrorist camps on the borders. Spending on the military rose to over one per cent of the GDP as the government ensured soldiers had better equipment and intelligence to contain security threats. According to the government, it would not allow any threat to the nation's existence survive.

This approach met stiff opposition from human rights groups. These civil groups even published lists of such misadventures caused by the military online. Amnesty International decried the abuse and revealed that more than 2000 people had been wrongly detained and abused by government forces across the decade. Casualties took to social media and news agencies to report assaults by the military. Although civil groups could see the progress government was making in reducing security threats, they believed such approach was detrimental to fundamental human rights and had to be curbed.

In a bid to reduce the resistance to its approach, the government maintained a less than friendly relationship with civil groups. There were some efforts to infringe on people's freedom of expression but this eventually proved futile. Nigerians online fought every attempt by the government—whether initiated via the House of Assembly or through other political instruments—to inhibit their rights of expression. The government resorted to warning leaders of civil rights groups and online activists that it would take no prisoners in its effort to cancel out any threat to the country's nationhood.

The reason the government took this approach was not far-fetched. It was the only approach that had consistently produced results. Previously, the government left it till late before using the military to tackle insurgent activities. Despite this, the military managed to curb activities of rebel groups. The promise shown by the country when terrorism related deaths dropped by more than 80 per cent in 2016, according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 20171, was more like a justification for the use of this approach towards waging the war against terrorism. Therefore, whenever the government decided to be more proactive in its dealings with insurgent groups, it easily resorted to the method that had consistently shown favorable results. By 2030, Nigeria's GTI score had dropped to 3.0 from the 9.1 it had recorded in 2016, taking the country out of the list of the top 50 most terrorized countries in the world. This meant that, although there were still records of terrorist attacks, there were much fewer incidents and even lesser number of casualties.

Apart from the contributions of the military, this was also possible because of the police reforms the government had initiated. For the country to have a reliable law enforcement agency, the Nigerian Police had to be rid of corruption, inefficiency and public distrust. Thus, the government improved the salary structure of the police, dismissed corrupt and uncommitted officers, and provided the police force with state-of-the-art equipment to combat crime and civil disobedience. In addition to the upgraded funding for the police, the government created a trust fund to allow private companies contribute to crime fighting. The police force became a more honorable profession in Nigeria. The government, through the improved remuneration, succeeded in mitigating bribery and corruption within the police force. More police officers were also hired to increase the police-people ratio. In 2016, there were less than 400,000 policemen in the country.2 By 2030, Nigeria had about 600,000 well paid police officers. The country had succeeded in setting up a formidable military and an efficient police force to keep the country united and crime free.

The government also met secessionist groups with stiff opposition. At the borderline of this opposition were activists, virulent student and youth associations and leaders of civil groups. Unwarranted protests of any form were not condoned. Protest had to be peaceful and in line with government regulations. Such protests must not instigate the people against the government. The police must also be made aware of such protests so that they can be present to prevent them from spinning out of control.

In the face of calls for restructuring, the government remained resolute in its bid to kick out all threats to both its existence and its indivisibility. Secessionists were treated as threats to national peace. Security agencies randomly arrested or questioned people for their public statements, both online and offline. The government continued to justify its efforts by tagging such people instruments of political enemies who were bent on disrupting the progress of the country for their personal gains. What this also meant was that rebel groups did not enjoy the liberty of growing before government forces descended on them. The support and liberty that Nnamdi Kanu enjoyed in 2016 became unfathomable in these times and new rebel leaders were lucky to even successfully amass loyal followings.

Along with this forceful approach, the government launched several media campaigns that encouraged ethnic tolerance and celebrated the beauty in diversity. The government also engaged the entertainment industry; celebrities from different parts of the country were enlisted to preach government's message of unity. Political tools such as the Federal Character were religiously employed and appointments were fairly distributed across regions and ethnic groups. The government paid close attention to disadvantaged areas and provided special relief where needed.

The marked progress in security meant the country started to enjoyed relative stability. Citizens felt more comfortable carrying out their daily activities without apprehension, except, of course, when they are victims of repressions by the security operatives.

While the government clamped down on 'threats to national peace', there was a general atmosphere of freedom of expression. Through the National Bureau of Statistics, and private organizations like BudgIT, citizens had access to information about the performance and spending of the government. Pro-liberty groups gained prominence during this period. They represented a milder but resolute version of rebel groups. Using a much more civil approach, these groups created movements that effectively educated people about their rights and encouraged them to demand same. What was interesting about this government was that, while it did not condone perceived insurgent activities, it allowed freedom of expression. Pro-liberty groups, thus, used this tool to help propagate the liberties of citizens.

Citizens were free to call the government to order on matters of national interest. The increase in the number of citizens who used social media amplified the voice of the people as government agencies also had heavy presence on social media. Rather than gag the people, the government used healthy criticism and commendations to propel social service delivery. When the citizens called the government's attention to certain defective areas, the government provided responsible feedback. Even politicians meaningfully engaged the populace on political matters on social media. The rise in this kind of interactions meant politicians had to become more intellectually ready for public conversations. The nation's politics gradually moved from being ethnically and religiously driven, to become more ideological. Politicians needed a new set of beliefs, principles and values and also had to design systems they believed the country should run. However, politics still revolved around personalities rather than parties.

Because of this, the citizens felt more empowered to vote their favoured candidates at elections. The abundant information and the low security threat gave citizens a chance to direct the affairs of the country through informed decisions at the poll. This was reflected over the last three elections, in 2019, 2023 and 2027, where citizens voted for candidates who they believed had better plans for their communities. Many of these candidates had engaged in dialogues online and on television, so citizens were able to check their claims and decide whether they could be trusted with their fortunes. When incumbents did not perform well, they were voted out and replaced, irrespective of their parties. That majority of Nigerians were not loyal to any party meant it was easy to switch across parties during voting exercises. As against the voter apathy that was experienced in previous elections, voter participation started to rise again. Starting from the 2019 general elections, voter participation rose up to 60 per cent. Candidates who fell short of expectations had to take a bow, while new leaders assumed the seats of power.

Despite the government's approach at curbing insurgency and secessionist activities, citizens maintained a good perception about the government. This was not unrelated to the incredible progress the government had made in delivering social services to the people. The standard of living of the average Nigerian was relatively high and citizens felt they enjoyed the benefits of democracy. Poverty rates dropped below 30 per cent and more people had jobs than ever in the country's history. The government had succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate below 10 per cent. For a country whose citizens had repeatedly suffered poor governance, such progress created great satisfaction among the populace.

There was increased urbanization as the government extended provision of basic amenities to rural areas. The government had built new roads and dualized more roads to accommodate the increasing number of vehicles on the road. To increase the speed at which roads were constructed, the government entered into public–private partnerships with actual investment companies and not politicians or companies owned by politicians or friends of those in government that built roads and charged affordable tolls to cover the cost of building and maintaining the roads. This method became the go-to system for faster delivery of road projects. The government then set up the Nigerian Transport Infrastructure Agency (NTIA) to manage toll collection for companies in its PPP network. The NTIA introduced the interoperable toll e-tags which allowed vehicle owners use a single tag across all toll roads in the country. It also helped reduce toll booth traffic as people could get their tolls deducted from their accounts. In order to complement existing transportation services, more state governments introduced mass transit buses, making transportation easier, cheaper and faster. Although the government was yet to replace existing trains with the most modern versions, the railway system was back on its feet. The government had mooted the idea of replacing the trains with faster ones. Movement across cities was more efficient and there were fewer road accidents. The Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) and the police kept the roads safe. The government explored transportation via the waterways and this was instrumental for moving cargo across coastal areas. The government also established transportation infrastructure on inland waterways to decongest traffic on the roads.

In terms of housing, the government reengineered an earlier housing scheme to allow the private sector take full charge while it improved on regulating the scheme without undue interference. Following a similar model to the contributory pension scheme, workers could take loans to build houses while they contributed a percentage of their monthly salaries to the housing fund. In addition to this, the private investment company enjoyed new incentives from the government to deliver on mass housing. The government reviewed the land use act to ease land purchase and transfer. In just over a decade, the new scheme resulted in seven million new housing units. Although this was still not up to the housing deficit of over 15 million, more houses had become available than the government could have delivered on its own.

A commendable attribute of the government was its ability to understand what key services it should take on, and what key services it should leave to the private sector to undertake. The pension scheme had shown that the government could deliver on its promises while using the private sector as a key channel for delivery. One of the most important steps the government took was to convert tax sinks into tax taps by privatizing several government agencies whose objectives were better undertaken by private partners. An example was the waste collection department. Government licensed private waste collectors and allowed them take charge of waste collection and recycling. Another was the housing scheme. Different housing management funds offered competitive packages to workers. Eventually, the quality of life accessible to the middle class improved. The average worker could feed their family, get comfortable shelter, access necessities and a few luxuries.

One would be astonished at the progress made with healthcare if one visited any of the public hospitals. First, the government had revisited the health insurance scheme and revamped it in its entirety. Health management organizations still delivered health insurance, but there was more competition among them to provide better services to the people. The government also held the HMOs accountable for funds entrusted to them by the people. This mandate was given to anti-corruption agencies to ensure transparency and accountability of service across both the public and private health sectors. Due to their history of failure, the government put in place measures to monitor activities of the HMOs. This was also because the incumbency of the government could only be maintained if it continued to deliver on social services like healthcare. By 2029, as against 2016 figures, about 80 per cent of Nigerians were covered by the health insurance scheme.

If an improved health insurance scheme is met using poor health facilities, then the whole insurance scheme becomes a sham. Thus, public hospitals received more investment to upgrade their infrastructure while doctors got paid promptly. Doctors trained within the country had more reasons to stay as they were convinced they could reach the summit of their careers while working in local hospitals. You could also find some foreign trained doctors returning to the country to set up private practices or to offer other health related services such as working in medical centres set up by government. It was also not out of place to see foreign doctors in Nigerian hospitals. Private specialist medical centers sprung up to cater to peculiar surgeries as well as terminal ailments like cancer. There arose healthy competition among medical centers as they jostled to provide the best healthcare services to citizens. Although public hospitals were fully functional, private hospitals attended to more people. Due to the new developments, Nigeria rose higher on the Global Healthcare Access Index to sit at 70th position, a gradual yet significant jump from its previous 140th position. Infant mortality rates dropped to 50 deaths in 1000 live births and life expectancy increased to 70 years. Nigeria's medical tourism cost dropped significantly as more people now had access to quality healthcare within the country.

It did not take long for the government to turn its attention to education, especially when it viewed the sector as an important driver of the nation's economy. The government, in a surgical move, cleansed the hitherto inefficient system of unqualified teachers. More state governments tested their teachers properly to ensure they were qualified to teach students. These tests were even more vigorous than they were previously known to be, as the government sought to raise the standard of teaching and learning. Parents who sent their wards to public schools were no longer dissatisfied with the schooling system. In fact, some parents who struggled to pay expensive school fees in private schools started to consider public schools as viable options. In a bid to counter its bad reputation as the country with one of the highest percentages of out-of-school children, the government increased the capacity of schools to accommodate more students. This involved building new infrastructure and hiring more teachers. Although the volume of children required to be accommodated was overwhelming, the government had made great progress in its bid to ensure no child was left without basic education. Since most of out-of-school children were based in northern Nigeria, the government expanded the Almajiri school program introduced by President Goodluck Jonathan and built more schools. Some of these projects were also run by state governments as the country made a consolidated effort towards putting every child in school. By 2029, Nigeria's out-of-school children had dropped to less than 1 million from 10.5 million in 2017.

Furthermore, more students passed their certificate exams such as the West African Senior School Certificate Examination and had fair chances at the universities. At least 75 per cent of those who sat for the certificate exam passed their required courses. Teachers' salaries had risen far above minimum wage; they were under close supervision and immense pressure to deliver on student performance. In the event that students did not attend universities, they had alternatives in vocational training institutes, which could put them on track towards building profitable careers. The universities had received the much needed funds to provide better facilities for learning and research. While a total overhauling of the university system would have taken time, the government, first, identified the urgent requirements of the universities that would help them to deliver acceptable teaching. The National Universities Commission(NUC) was also leading a revamp of the curriculum to help bring universities up to date with modern demands. Asides this, the government closely monitored activities in the universities and local management boards lost the autonomy they once enjoyed. The standard of most federal universities rose within a few years. For example, the University of Ibadan rose into the top 200 on the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for 2029. More private universities sprung up to complement the country's tertiary education system. The universities in the country operated at a new standard required by the NUC. Students were nearly as comfortable pursuing their postgraduate degrees within the country as they were pursuing it outside it.

This improvement in schools set the country up for a more productive workforce. Companies spent less time and resources retraining new graduates. Graduates had better understanding of job demands and propelled the economy much faster with their expertise and commitment.

Several state governments launched new projects in order to meet the federal government's target to deliver potable water to at least 90 per cent of all Nigerian households within a decade. This meant water distribution networks were revisited, pipes were refurbished or replaced, and new water billing systems were installed. The government allowed private companies run the water distribution system.

The same was done with access to electricity. In 2017, about fifty per cent of Nigerians had access to electricity and almost no citizens enjoyed uninterrupted power supply for extended periods. The first step the government took was the re-examination of the privatization of the electric distribution and generation companies (discos and GenCos). When the government privatized those key areas of electricity supply, the move was greeted with so much optimism. However, by 2017, questions about the effectiveness and efficiency of the privatization were rife. According to the populace, they did not enjoy any appreciable supply of electricity. In addition to this, the discos had increased electricity fares about three times since their inception. Despite the incentives the federal government put in place for the new electricity companies, they struggled to improve Nigerians' access to electricity. Thus, when the government sought to bring change to the electricity supply framework, citizens were fully in support. It started with a close examination of the new companies. The absence of several options meant that the few available DisCos ran a monopoly. The first step the government took was to enable competition in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). One route it took was to provide the option for citizens to purchase power directly from generating companies. This meant that citizens could bypass distribution companies to buy their own electricity from a generation company of their choice. Although the distribution companies were still protected by the government, this helped to disrupt the power sector and allowed healthy competition in power supply.

Access to stable power supply increased. Generating companies now had more money to expand their capacities. The biggest beneficiaries of the new policy were private companies who now had control over their power supply. Although the discos grumbled at the new policy, the government tried to maintain their relevance in the system such as enabling distribution networks charge tariffs when consumers used their network to obtain electricity.

One of the biggest achievements of the government was the revamping of the public service sector. The government reiterated that it would no longer condone the 'business as usual' demeanor that pervaded the public sector. Initially, public service was known for its inefficiencies, corruption and poor service delivery. This had changed. Civil servants took their work very seriously and were diligent while at their work. Although cost of governance remained high, civil servants were promptly paid and those deserving of promotions and other benefits were promptly and adequately rewarded. Workers were punctual and they put in the same amount of effort they would, if the organization was theirs. The government modeled the public service after the private sector. Erring civil servants were suspended or sacked. The government was both notorious and famed for its ruthlessness in ensuring discipline and excellence in the civil service. However, citizens were happy about the new state of public services and commended the quick feedbacks they now received when they made queries at government parastatals.

Contracts became well scrutinized before and after they were awarded. Applications for government contracts became open and transparent and while political connections still helped, the government did not compromise on cost and quality. If the government would deliver on most of its objectives and policies, it had to cut down on wasteful spending as well as projects that were recycled by contractors and politicians. The government closely monitored all projects it granted and required contractors to give guarantees on the durability and life cycle of projects. Contractors who failed in their claims were prosecuted.

The steady supply of electricity, the political stability and improved delivery of social services paved way for an impressive business environment. After previously languishing at 169th position out of 190 countries in the world on the Ease of Doing Business Index for several months, Nigeria eventually appreciated to a higher rank of 145th.3 At this position, the country made a statement that it was resolute about making its environment comfortable for people to conduct businesses in the country. By 2029, Nigeria ranked amongst the top 50 countries on the Ease of Doing Business Index.

The government made paying taxes much easier through the introduction of electronic payment systems. In order to encourage new and old businesses, the government lowered taxes and gave periodic tax breaks. The processes involved in starting businesses were made more tractable. Entrepreneurs could register and kick off their businesses in just a few days. After the government introduced new reforms that made it easier for citizens to obtain electricity directly from the generating companies, citizens embraced the new options and explored it to their satisfaction. Several estates and industrial areas opted for this option as it guaranteed them more power supply.

The government supported local businesses through access to short-term low interest loans issued by the Central Bank through commercial banks. Government spending is a major instrument in driving the economy and one of the channels the government employed was making funds available for new business owners to kick-start their ventures. In addition to supporting local businesses through improved access to credit facilities, the government incentivized foreign investors to extend their enterprises to the country. Eventually, Nigeria became one of the world's top destinations for business investors and Africa's economic top dog.

Nigeria continued to maintain its position at the summit of Africa's economic ladder. The GDP growth was sustained at an average of six per cent per annum. With an experienced economic team, the government pursued full diversification from oil. Although the country still enjoyed the wealth from oil, it was less at risk of oil shocks. The wisest thing the economic team did was examine areas where we had comparative advantages and concentrate efforts on them. Some of these included agricultural products like cocoa, cassava, palm kernel oil, fish, wood, yam, and cashew nuts. The government gave special incentives to business owners who produced in line with the government's exportation and self-sufficiency priorities. It also raised import duties for only goods the country produced that were of international standard.

The country did not attempt to lower its oil production. Oil remained one of the biggest earners of foreign exchange as Nigerian found new markets in the developing world to purchases its oil. Due to the slow transition to renewable energy, Nigeria still held some of the old markets for a prolonged period. However, the country ensured that it shifted its weight unto other sectors. These other sectors, which included the manufacturing, agricultural and IT services sectors, provided the country with alternative reliable sources of foreign exchange.

In addition to maximizing our production level, government understood that offsetting the imbalance in our export range would eventually reduce the effect of oil price drops on the nation's economy. Thus, the government introduced an export promotion scheme, which made it easier for manufacturers and producers to ship products out of the country seamlessly. Asides offsetting the balance of the economy, the government also knew it had to widen its revenue base, especially to cover for the scale of infrastructure it aspired to build.

The two major options for the government to improve its revenue base were raising taxes and widening its export base. Upon close and thoughtful examination, the government decided that making non-oil exports competitive in the market again had two promising bottom lines. First, it would drastically reduce unemployment rate, and secondly, it was a more considerate revenue source as against overtaxing the country's enterprises.

There were three cadres to focus on for export; these were production of raw materials (mostly through agriculture and mining), manufacturing and services.

The government kicked off an export promotion reform that angled for the development of sectors that directly contributed to the export base.

The government continued on its trajectory of reforms that improved the productivity in the agricultural sector. Agricultural productivity continued on the upward trend it had enjoyed from the start of the Fourth Republic. While several crops were dedicated for exportation, the country was producing enough for itself. Due to the support the agricultural sector received, year-on-year food inflation rate dropped below ten per cent. Food processing plants started to spring out close to farm settlements as businessmen sought to transform farm produces into processed foods, both for local consumption and exportation. New private schemes were created where non-farmers could invest in farms and share proceeds during harvests. These investments were usually short term and only lasted the duration of a farming cycle. Through these private schemes, the farmers enjoyed considerable investments opportunities that helped them improve their output and consequently expand. Farmers also started to depend less on the government as private investment and partnerships took the forefront in the agricultural sector. Due to the heavy involvement of the private sector in agriculture, farmers were able to cut down on waste and optimize their production. New roads and railway networks were constructed to ease the movement of farm produce and agricultural products, especially to the country's ports. Packaging and processing companies doubled to complement efforts to export quality agricultural products. The agricultural sector enjoyed an unprecedented growth driven mostly by private enterprises who entered into public–private partnership agreements with government agencies.

The mining sector, another producer of raw materials for the international market, enjoyed a new inflow of capital. The government revived and liberalized the mining industry and made it open for private investment. This opened up a market the government had neglected for decades, especially since the oil boom. The effect of this was marvelous. While government focused on reducing the negative impact of mining on local communities, mining companies created efficient mining systems that eventually enriched both the local communities and the federal government. This led to rapid urbanization of several rural settlements and the opening up of the hinterlands.

Manufacturing also maintained the growth it had started to enjoy. More industries started opening up in new cities and more jobs were created. The manufacturing sector's contribution to the GDP stood at a respectable 20 per cent. More industrialists like Aliko Dangote sprung up to take advantage of the country's infrastructure to build industries for fabrication, production or assembly. Investors who pulled out of the country in 2016 returned to ride on the wave of the new boom. Investor confidence rose and this was reflected in the excellent rise in the country's foreign reserves. The government encouraged investors through tax breaks and worked very hard to provide conducive environment for businesses. The government removed the stringent regulations that hindered foreign investors from setting up new businesses in the country. Through these activities, the exchange rate of the naira against other currencies became more favorable.

It is important to note that in 2016, each of these sectors were enjoying impressive growth. However, beyond 2016, the government focused on translating the growth to successful export products that would tilt the balance where oil held as much as 92 per cent of export earnings. By 2029, the government had successfully dropped oil ratio to about 40 per cent of export earnings, while non-oil exports enjoyed the larger share. The non-oil sector increased its share of the GDP to over 70 per cent.

The growth of these new sectors boded well for employment rate in the country. Initially, the oil sector which took the center stage for several decades did not commensurate its revenue with employing capacity. The oil sector is capital intensive but not labor-intensive. Thus, no matter how much progress oil companies made, they did not employ a proportionate number of people.

Thus, when the manufacturing, agriculture and IT-services industries began to rise, unemployment rate started to drop. This also had a positive impact on poverty rate. Unemployment rate dropped to about 7 per cent while poverty rate hovered around 30 per cent.

In order to finance all its development plans, especially with the urgency to whittle down agitations for restructuring or secession, the government resorted to borrowing. The low debt to GDP ratio of the country gave room for more adventurous credit-seeking. Earnings from exportation increased as soon as more products were exported. In addition, the taxation system, although lenient, was efficient, simplified and even. The increased revenue helped the government support its development projects. The government effectively started to pay back its debts as it enjoyed more revenue from its new activities.

All these developments made the 2030 Independence Day celebrations worthwhile. The economy was doing incredibly well, the citizens felt the effect of that growth in their rising standard of living, and the country enjoyed political stability. Nigerians felt secure and peace was pervasive. Business owners were happy and enjoyed the liberty to grow their businesses. The people were dependent on the government to improve their welfare, but the government did not do this through unsustainable welfare programs. Rather, citizens were provided with conducive environment to live and work. The government created sustainable systems for each of the social services it was meant to deliver and used the private sector to drive many of these services.

As a volatile country, the political class was aware that the indivisibility of the country was crucial to maintain their wealth and status. If secessionists and rebels succeeded in their aim to divide the country, a new political class would emerge which may or may not include the current beneficiaries of the country's political system. The political class would end up counting their losses and be reduced to mere political spectators. As we stated earlier, political parties in Nigeria are just tools Nigerian politicians use to reach their political goals. Beyond this, there was generally low loyalty to any of these parties. As such, you may find a founding member of a major political party suddenly become the presidential flag bearer of the opposition party. There is no prolonged animosity, no value barriers, just politicians seeking the best method at the moment to achieve their political dreams. Thus, this was a battle between dominant political figures in the country and the rising political reformists in the form of rebels and secessionists.

Citizens just want their lives to be better. While they often clamored for change, citizens were generally comfortable with rehashing politicians that delivered on their promises. With the increase in the connectivity of Nigerians, citizens were more aware of what to expect from their leaders. They were also more aware of the liberties they now enjoyed. Therefore, the most important thing for Nigerians was that the country was conducive enough for them to make a living while they enjoyed basic amenities that a country of Nigeria's status should provide. They generally were not too concerned about which group was at the helm of affairs.

Thus, politicians soon realized that the best way to keep hold of their incumbency in government offices, especially after Nigerians had successfully voted out previous ruling parties, was to make extraordinary progress in both social and economic terms. The platform through which these politicians contested did not matter, what mattered was getting to office and delivering on their promises to the people. The collective but unwritten goal of the ruling class was to keep the country together for as long as they could, deliver on key social services and electoral promises so as to continue enjoying the privileges they had by holding so much political power. Breaking up the country would have meant having to start over again. Who knows what might have resulted if that happened?

When certain office holders failed in their duties, the political class joined the general populace in pointing fingers and calling them to order. They now understood that their actions had consequences and were not willing to jeopardize their ambitions for party loyalty. The need to keep the people's trust became very vital to incumbent leaders. The government also knew it had to control its comments about—and reactions to ideas bordering on—secession and restructuring. Thus, while encouraging freedom of expression, it paid careful attention to things as little as murmurs with motives to trigger the disintegration of the country.

Political office holders started to work very hard to impress the people. For all they knew, they would also gain from the economic progress of the country and would win more favors if they danced to the tune of the people. They also knew that implementing populist ideas, which eventually become counterproductive, would drop their ranks and make them more vulnerable to political knockouts. Office holders balanced important socio-economic reforms with socialist programs, but always placed the reforms that eventually led to sustainable growth over whatever socialist programs they felt would benefit the people.

Due to the excellent choices the country's leaders made, the country entered an era of unprecedented economic growth. The GDP growth rate averaged 6 per cent for an extended period. When oil price dropped, the effect was not too drastic as the country took refuge in its robust foreign reserve and other foreign exchange earners. People had access to affordable health-care, comfortable housing, good education, stable water and electricity supply, low interest credit facilities, good transportation system and little economic worries. The size of the middle class grew while unemployment rates dropped.

While citizens will support candidates who delivered on electoral promises, they will only have a favorable opinion about political officers if corruption is curbed. As a problem that is pervasive across the entire country and had caused the country so much havoc, the government needed more commitment and creativity in its fight against corruption. Politicians also needed to find new and legitimate ways to enrich themselves.

The government took a hard stance against corruption. First, the president promised to abide by the rule of law and promised that the government will not protect, or help to protect, any government official found wanting, especially in areas of corruption, mismanagement of funds, money laundering, and so on. It swung into action to empower courts to deliver judgments earnestly. Anti-corruption agencies got the freedom, financial support and the political backing to prosecute offenders. Soon, national dailies were agog with information about recovered stolen funds. This accompanied news about public prosecutions of former politicians and public office holders. The government also scrutinized its records to ensure all monies were accounted for and if anything was missing; the government let the law take its full course.

The success of the rule of law is bound to the effectiveness of law courts. What set Nigerian law courts backwards were their practices and procedures. The Nigerian justice system was slow and tedious and sometimes outright corrupt. This affected the efficacy of its justice delivery. The government understood that justice delayed is justice denied and led a re-examination of the country's justice system. Redundant processes, which only sought to delay court judgments, were taken out of the judicial process. The new judicial system was a hybrid of the American and British judicial systems.

One thing that remained was the dependence of the state governments on the federal government. Political analysts believed the federal government used this as one of the tools to pull the country in the direction it wanted. However, the government was very cautious about this. If the state government depended too heavily on the federal government, the federal government would not have sufficient funds to pursue its infrastructure dreams. Similarly, the federal government cannot cater to every citizen sufficiently without the lower cadres of government playing some roles. Yet, if the state governments were too independent, then the power the federal government holds becomes superficial.

Thus, the federal government continued to withhold power from the states, but not too much. The progress of the states was important to keep the people happy. The federal government continues to hold onto the mining industry, which may have empowered some states to become more viable. The federal government continued to provide state allocations and when states got into trouble, bailouts were issued.

Nigerians, especially young Nigerians, started to find a future in the country and were less eager to leave the country. Those in diaspora started to find reasons to return home to pursue lifelong careers in the country. There was generally an assurance among the Nigerians that their futures were secure.

Ethnic clashes had taken a downward turn. This happened for two reasons. Firstly, the military and police forces were intolerant towards any violent uprisings. Instigators of ethnic conflicts got severe punishments for disrupting public peace. Ethnic organizations were also required to sign new agreements that demanded them to pursue ethnic advocacy within certain confines of new regulations. Such regulations required them to seek the permission of local authorities before carrying out protests. Secondly, welfare had generally improved and people were able to live their lives in ways they aspired to. The access to quality education also helped educate people on how to peacefully coexist. Public campaigns were backed by local support that quickly settled ethnic disputes. The success of the justice system and the efficacy of the law enforcement agencies meant that issues, when they arose, were easily resolved. Government had also backed its military/police force approach with events and campaigns that stressed the positives of the unity of Nigerians.

The force treated political rebels the same way it treated secessionists. No one was allowed to threaten the existence and unity of the country, whether mildly or intensely. However, what made people overlook this approach was their rising confidence in the incumbent political leaders. People could trust the government to deliver on policies it initiated. Largely, Nigerians were happy and they did not have much reasons to change that.

This is not to say that the government got it so right that people no longer saw their ethnic differences. In fact, they reveled in them. However, it was no longer a reason for separation but rather a reason to be proud. Nigerians were willing to live together as one nation.

Chapter Nine

The Buffet

It is October 2030, and the president of the country is on hand to perform one of his new ceremonial roles—delivering a speech on Independence Day. The Presidency no longer wielded the same power as it did 15 years ago. Things have changed dramatically. The 2019 elections had ushered in an era of pro-restructuring reformists and Nigeria as we knew it has changed forever.

Many things had changed about Nigeria. State governors had become the most powerful political office holders in the country and the Presidency mostly oversaw common services of national interest. Nigeria had completed a turnaround to the Federalism that most nationalists clamored for and proposed in all the national conferences that were held after the 1966 military coup.

The fortunes of the country had improved. Nigerians in diaspora returned home to help their states grow. While the president remained the country's number one political officer, the office dealt more with international diplomacy than it did with the citizens and residents of Nigeria. The constitution delegated few duties to the federal government such as the authority to print money, the postal system, international trade, regulation of interstate and international trades, managing the armed forces and so on. Asides those, the president had very little influence on state governments. Of course, the presidency still had a measure of influence on the fortunes of the country. Agencies and MDAs like the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian Customs Administration, the Nigerian Football Federation, Nigerian Communications Commission, Nigerian Copyright Commission and Nigerian Export Promotion Council were still under the control of the Presidency. Yet, unlike before, state governors now had more resources to effectively improve the standard of living of residents and indigenes of their states.

The result of the restructuring was favorable. State governments were able to deliver on key services. The GDP growth rate of Nigeria was maintained at six per cent. Nigeria made more progress than it had ever experienced in diversifying the economy. A rapid growth of local economies was kick-started due to the new resource control administration which meant that state governments focused on exploiting economic opportunities within their borders rather than depending on the federal government. Major seaports were busy with activities as coastal states serviced the hinterlands. Some local airports were upgraded to international standards. Several other states also built airports to make foreign trade easier.

Unemployment rate had dropped below 8 per cent and poverty rate sank below 30 per cent. Government debt to GDP ratio was at a record high, but this was matched by rapid development of infrastructure. Schools were fully functional, and private universities had sprung up and competed favorably with the best universities in Africa. About 70 per cent of the citizens were covered by health insurance. More specialist hospitals had opened and most were headed by medical professionals who had returned to the country to practice. Less people were leaving the country to seek greener pastures as opportunities became abundant.

Citizens contributed to the growth of their states, and the government allowed unrestrained freedom of expression. Civil and liberty groups ensured that citizens were neither marginalized nor suffered human rights abuse. The markets were open and entrepreneurs encountered little or no barriers to starting and running their businesses. Nigeria ranked 60 in the world on the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index. Although tax rates rose astronomically, citizens could see the progress made by the State in delivering on key social services. Tax to GDP ratio reached 20 per cent and more people were captured in the tax net.

Law enforcement agencies became localized and state governments ran police forces. Local governments also had small security units. The Nigerian Police was disbanded and the Criminal Investigation Department was used instead by federal courts during investigations.

How did we get to this point? Prior to the 2019 elections, the inefficiency of the governance system in Nigeria had become too apparent. The government had battled very hard to keep the country together, and even though it was registering significant success, the success was not translating to better welfare and improved standard of living at the rate the citizens wanted.

The size of the country and its diversity had become too big a problem for a unitary government to handle, especially a government with so many inadequacies. The government was lagging behind in delivering social services. Policies struggled to create the right impact on the citizens. The housing deficit is a good example. With a deficit of about 17 million housing units and the demand for at least 1 million housing units annually, the government was only able to start about 3,000 housing units in a year. Since most state governments were either near insolvent or struggling to keep up with expenses, no help came for the millions of Nigerians who were technically homeless.

Mining activities were taking too long to kick off. Different states had different natural resources, but only the federal government could issue mining licenses. Prioritizing the production of some natural resources would mean neglecting others. Yet, concentrating on all would undermine the productivity of country's mining sector. This meant several natural resources in the long tail were neither mined by the federal government nor by the state. While state governments continued to run helter-skelter to acquire funds to fulfill their social programs, income opportunities were lying in their backyards wasting away.

Another example was the inland waterways. The federal government was in charge of all the country's waters. So states like Lagos, were incapacitated from exploring water transportation without the permission of the federal government. What this meant was that, while citizens continued to suffer traffic congestion on the roads, the state government could not use its resources to alleviate that suffering. Citizens wasted a lot of productive hours on the road.

The same went for the railway service. Railways in Nigeria were operated by the Nigerian Railway Corporation, a federal agency. The railway system had suffered from years of neglect. It was not until late Umaru Yar'adua commenced plans to rebuild the railway system that the sector enjoyed any attention. However, development was slow and the government took several years to complete standard gauges. Several railway projects were abandoned due to lack of funds. One example was the 276km standard gauge rail line meant to link Warri to Ajaokuta. The rail line was meant to carry steel products and raw materials from Ajaokuta via Delta Steel Company to the ports in Warri. After 18 years, the project remained incomplete.1 There were several projects like that which the federal government had very little incentive or funds to complete. Since oil revenue continued to fill the government's pockets, the incentive to explore services that could generate new income for the government remained low.

The inability of state governments to create state police forces also meant the country had to rely on the inefficiently run Nigerian police force. Some states, such as Lagos State, found alternatives. Lagos state commissioned several task forces to maintain law and order on its streets and in the nooks and crannies of the state. Most other states still relied on the police force to do same. Not all the states had the wherewithal to create several task forces. Many were already struggling to pay salaries of civil servants; hence, employing new workers was illogical.

These problems were at the heart of citizens when pro-restructuring advocates started to rise. They had many arrows in their quiver to point out that the country needed to pull away from the unitary government it had operated for too long. One of the displeasing facts about the system of government was that the military government had introduced the unitary government. Prior to the first coup in 1966, Nigeria ran regional governments under a weak federal government. The regional governments led majority of the economic and social developments in the country. The federal government only waded in when matters arose beyond the powers of the regional government. An example of this was during the political discord between Chief Ladoke Akintola and Chief Obafemi Awolowo.2

Upon the start of the military regime, the government was unified under a single Commander-in-Chief who oversaw all activities in the country. A return to regional government model could have happened when power returned to the civilians but the regions had already been broken into states. Since then, one national conference after the other, there had been several complaints about the need for a restructuring of government and a return to true federalism.

The murmurs about restructuring had started to become very audible. As the 2019 elections approached, there were more calls for the nation's leaders to restructure the government. The calls became deafening as politicians across different political parties joined in. Even government officials used every opportunity they had to comment on restructuring. The polity was increasingly growing into two opposing sides—the pro-restructuring and pro-unitary government divides. However, the pro-restructuring army was drumming up hordes of support and their voices echoed across every political movement in the country.

Soon, the calls snowballed into a national debate. Show hosts on television stations knew that inviting politicians to talk about restructuring would draw a lot of viewership. Social media pages had conversations and campaigns about the need for restructuring and some of these involved politicians and government officials. Restructuring debates rented the radio stations and became major news headlines in national newspapers. The government started to feel the heat. Yet, restructuring could not occur unless the National House of Assembly sanctioned it.

Since politicians are cunning, and would do anything to get into political offices, restructuring became a buzzword. Most, based on the nature of their audience, pulled their weight behind the need to restructure the country. At that point, it became important to decide what restructuring truly meant. It could have been devolution of power to the states, resource control, regionalism or self-determination.

The pro-restructuring group had to consolidate what they meant by restructuring. The constitution could only be changed in one direction. Eventually, more and more politicians converged on devolving power to states.

At the 2019 elections, citizens supported pro-restructuring advocators in the National Assembly. When the electoral committee started to call out winners of the elections, pro-restructuring candidates dominated the results. It was only a matter of time, after being sworn in, that the government started the process to amend the constitution to accommodate the new structure.

As one would expect, several committees were inaugurated to define what restructuring meant for the country. The consensus was that more power needed to return to the state governments. The federal government's hold was inhibiting Nigeria's growth. Policy makers agreed without doubt that the federal government was making significant progress. However, it was far below the progress the country was capable of making. The restructuring process was concluded several months into the new administration.

The new structure gave states more powers over resources within their territories. State assemblies, with their new mandate, drafted new constitutions in relation to the new political structure. States also developed their emblems, flags and signs that distinguished them from other states. The revenue allocation system was reversed as states now contributed instead to the federal government. States could build their own revenues and put in place more structures to boost their income without permission from the federal government. The public service revolved around states. States that found it difficult to survive alone requested to merge with neighboring states.

Along with their new constitutions, states established their own codes of law. This came with new state supreme courts that presided using both federal and state laws. Individual state laws were not binding beyond the borders of their respective states. This influenced the decision of business owners on where to situate their businesses. The taxation system was reformed as the government needed to know which monies accrued to the federal government and which to the state governments. While states did not have the liberty to print their own currencies, they collected most of the taxes (including company tax). State governments ran their own policing systems, controlled the inland waterways, railway networks, and courts.

States knew the task before them. Some states like Lagos, Rivers and Ogun already had a head start as already viable states. Lagos had the highest advantage and it capitalized on the progress it had made. Some states were liberal in policies while others were conservative. Others straddled the middle of these two extremes. The federal government was prohibited from exercising any power not delegated to it by the state governments in their constitutions. The head of the state government remained the governor. The state houses of assembly remained full time. The state governments were modeled to be sovereign, however the federal government could challenge some of the state governments' decisions in federal courts. The local governments enjoyed a new lease of political power, as they were allowed to collect taxes and maintain law and order in their jurisdictions.

The federal government retained some of its powers; such as raising and supporting armies and other armed forces, creating and maintaining immigration and emigration policies, launching warfare, overseeing the central bank and printing of money, creating and running national agencies such as the sports federation, collecting certain levies and taxes and so on. There were also nationwide policies by the federal government in the areas education and health and so on. One of these was the health insurance scheme.

The electoral system remained the same. INEC was the sole administrator of elections. There was no need to change the voting system as there were no new political offices to fill from restructuring. Some political offices only had more power than they did before, while some had lost some of the power they previously wielded.

A wave of excitement cascaded through the streets due to the success of the exercise. As with every exercise, there were also prophets of doom who predicted that states would find it difficult to deliver under the new system and that many governments would soon go under. These prophets also predicted that the new system would collapse under the unabated corruption that was set to hold sway. This was because the corruption that existed when power was concentrated at the centre would multiply across states. According to them, restructuring will not change the attitudes of politicians towards governance.

Some of these predictions eventually held true for some states. These states struggled for a long time to move forward and cater to their citizens. They suffered both corruption within their ranks and their inability to ignite economic development. However, state governments that had visionary leaders had already set themselves for growth even before the restructuring.

By the time the restructuring was completed, governments had to come to terms with their new responsibilities. It is easy to guess that not all the states started on the same pedestal. Several state governments were used to queuing at the doors of the federal government to finance their budget for each fiscal year. These state governments barely had any initiatives to support running their public services. Although they now had new tools to make this change, the culture that existed prior to the restructuring was so ingrained in their systems that moving forward in a different direction proved quite difficult. Each state had a different cup of tea. Some states knew it meant starting afresh; setting up new agencies, signing new agreements. Restructuring did not come with a windfall. However, since the federal government had much fewer responsibilities than before, it sought to help some of the states that were struggling to start in the first few months through new rounds of bailouts.

For proactive state governments that patiently saw the restructuring process through, they had engaged permanent secretaries within the government to design plans that would enable them to exploit the new revenue streams that were now available to them. The state government's responsibilities generally did not change. Perhaps it gained a few more responsibilities with the power it wielded; it still had to deliver on social services for its residents. Since population was no longer important in getting allocations from the federal government, state governments conducted population censuses to ascertain the amount of people they had on their hands.

One thing that became prominent as the country grew was the apparent gap that had started to develop between states. Some states were doing extremely well, while a number of other states still found it difficult to move forward with the new structure. These included states whose leaders, instead of getting to work, became power drunk and sought to exploit the state's resources. These states imported the poor qualities of the unitary system of government and domiciled it in their states. Growth was stunted and many indigenes emigrated to other states. These states were regularly bankrupt and the federal government sometimes came to their assistance. Such states would continually remain stunted in their growths, until progressive and visionary governors presided over them.

A common occurrence in the first few years after restructuring was the rise in taxes. Taxes were levied by the federal, state and local governments. After a few years, taxes contributed as much as 20 per cent of the GDP. This was a massive jump from the 6 per cent the previous system of government generated. Governments sought avenues to finance their activities, and taxation provided a consistent approach to achieving this. Taxes collected by the government included corporate, property, personal income, sales, and import taxes. Custom duties accrued only to the federal government. The federal and state governments shared revenue from taxes with different ratios. Some states taxed their residents more heavily than others. Some even started a progressive tax regime that increased the taxes payable according to levels of income.

One new activity that kicked off upon the completion of the restructuring was interstate trade. Since state government acted almost as sovereign states, it meant goods and services gotten from another state could be classified as imports. Commerce was boosted by this new provision. State governments could now trade with one another based on the resources they had. One of the places this was important was the energy sector. Different states had different energy policies and resources. Since states became independent, the states where most of Nigeria's hydroelectric power came from could now sell power to other states. This was entirely new. State governments created their own electricity boards and then licensed electricity generation, distribution and transmission to private companies where necessary. This led to the sporadic development of the electricity sector, as companies and electricity boards could focus on small areas (states) and provide enough electricity to cater to their electricity consumption. New power generation stations sprung up in different states. While many of the states still imported electricity from states that had it in abundance, they also started developing their local electricity systems. Many states looked towards solar and thermal electricity to cater to their electricity demands. However, partnerships with private investment companies were crucial to meet the size and urgency of demand. Due to these developments, access to stable electricity increased to 75 per cent of the entire population.

Several state governments held congresses to determine the directions they wanted their states to go. This included examining the potential revenue sources for the state and how best to exploit them, especially to quickly assuage the growing demands on the new governments. The country had not been that excited in a long while. If a heat map were plotted for each of the states based on the activities by government officials and private companies looking to explore new opportunities, the whole map would be painted red. State houses of assembly were agog with activity and government offices received armies of visitors.

Mining companies that had started work based on contracts signed with the federal government had to stop and renew their licenses with the state governments. The federal government initiated a new revenue sharing formula for all mining activities in the country. When mining activities are carried out within the borders of a state, the state received 60 per cent of the accrued lease revenue. When mining is done offshore, states shared 25 per cent of income generated by the federal government. This applied to all mining activities, including oil and gas. What this meant was that governments scrambled to identify their key natural resources and find markets for them. The allure of the new sharing formula motivated state governments to take the initiative of creating enabling environments for companies to kick-start operations within their territories.

Since state governments were now in charge of businesses within their territories, it meant businesses had to register with the state governments instead of the federal government. Thus, the onus of 'Ease of Doing Business' laid with the states and the collective efforts of the states would tell on the country. Since governments sought new enterprises, barriers to starting businesses were lowered. This can be likened to the scenario of commercial banks that are trying to acquire new customers; they go to extreme lengths to open accounts for them. Processes that normally take days could take a few minutes at a bus stop with a bank's customer acquisition officer. That is exactly what happened in the new framework as state governments struggled to stabilize and stay at the forefront of revenue generation. Ease of starting business became impressive. While governments may later maximize their revenues from these new companies, they needed them to be well established before knocking on their doors again.

Not all states had abundant resources to mine but others found solace in agriculture. Agriculture presented another alternative for states to accrue revenue to support themselves. State agriculture boards worked with farmers to help their growth and maximize their productivity. Where necessary, governments provided help in form of input to aid the growth of farms around their respective states.

While the government eventually started leasing out several of its activities to the private sector to manage, the sudden need to maximize income meant that most states first created several state enterprises before handing them over to private companies in public private partnership agreements.

Manufacturing industries started to take off in more parts of the country. States granted licenses to private companies to build industries in their cities. These were both local and foreign investors. There was an influx of businesses and production outfits into the country. Manufacturing contributed 25 per cent of the GDP. Industries created products that ranged from textile materials to rubber products. Abia State, for example, became fully invested in supporting the Aba Shoe Industry. At this time, while the government taxed old companies, individuals who just started new companies enjoyed tax breaks. This was to drive the economy of the state as quickly as possible while having enough to provide important social services to citizens.

Needless to add, unemployment rates plummeted since new the companies that sprung up needed hands. States where many of such developments were going on attracted workers. Nigeria's unemployment rate had dropped to 8 per cent by 2029. If youths were not found on farms, they were found in new industries or found pounding on laptops in other online trade and services sectors. Nominal GDP per capita rose to 10,000 dollars.

Citizens, at first, felt the heat turned on them by the raised taxes and strictness of the government. However, they started to see the progress the country was making. Nigerians felt the country was finally living up to its potential as the most populous black nation in the world. The feeling that the nation was not maximizing its abundant resources petered out. The state government has the greatest influence over the lives of Nigerians. Social services were now more customized to the needs of the local people.

Crime rates dropped to a minimal level as state governments initiated state police forces. New police officers were recruited and trained to maintain law and order. The government also paid them respectable sums, well above minimum wage. Although members of the now defunct Nigerian Police Force reapplied to join the new state police forces, a new order was established. There was close monitoring of police activities and corruption and bribery were at a bare minimum. Officers carried out their duties with utmost integrity.

State governments had more resources to improve healthcare. Asides the federal government's health insurance scheme, state governments invested more in state hospitals. Local hospitals became so good that doctors now stayed back to work in the country rather than overseas. Private hospitals also complemented public hospitals. Due to the diligence of workers in the civil service, the quality of service delivery in public hospitals improved greatly. Government officials started to patronize local hospitals more often than they did in the past. Infant mortality rates dropped to 30 deaths in 1000 live births and the life expectancy of the average Nigerian was 75 years. Nigeria moved to 60th position on the Global Healthcare Access Index.

On housing, it was much easier for states to deliver on providing shelter for their indigenes. With about 17 million housing deficit in the country, it was a huge task trying to provide homes for all homeless people. When the state governments conducted their population census, each state was able to determine how many people were homeless within their constituencies. This helped the state governments to spread their provision of homes over a reasonable number of years. With several governments working on providing shelter, the country was fulfilling its goal much faster than it would have done unitarily. The model most states used was to allow real estate companies build homes and lease them to citizens. Citizens were allowed to spread their payment over a long period. Since most states had to rewrite their laws, laws like the Land Use Act, which hindered real estate development, was reviewed and repealed. Transfer of land was made easier and this meant more homes and offices to be built at lower costs and faster pace.

The new governments were threatened by corruption. The sheer amount of contracts made available by the restructuring ensured several people went the extra mile to secure contracts with the government. Since the federal government struggled to battle the menace before many of its duties were passed to the state governments, corruption remained unabated. Budgets for contracts were inflated and several government officials took kickbacks to grant contracts to private companies. This did not hinder the progress of state governments, except that it raised the costs of projects.

The progress that was highlighted above among state governments was not uniform across all 36 states. A number of states found it difficult to come to terms with their newly acquired independence. These states struggled and scrambled for stability. Their governments struggled to pay salaries and could not carry out any new projects as they had no systems in place to help. Their youths started to migrate to neighboring states where economic activities were booming. This gradually changed the distribution of citizens across the country. States with far less industrial activities became holiday destinations to break away from business of other states.

Relatively, the new structure of the government had a positive impact on economic progress. Without making extra efforts, the country started on a journey to full diversification. This was because most state governments had to find new revenue sources. The revenue allocation formula for leasing mining areas meant that states where oil was present enjoyed the larger share of oil revenue, while the other states only got leftovers of such income after the federal government had taken its share and decided to share some of the rest. In truth, the only reason other states got revenue from oil field lease was because some of those oil prospecting activities took place offshore. Necessity, however, is the mother of invention; state governments exploited new revenue sources and pursued them. This meant that about 30 in 36 states were generating revenue from non-oil sources. These governments also realized that with the new structure, and the rise of state agricultural boards, trade around agricultural products happened within the country and beyond it. Governments whose key agricultural produce were cash crops shipped them to the ports for export, while other governments whose key agricultural produce were instrumental for the country's food self-sufficiency traded their products across the country. It was normal for governments, through the agricultural boards, to buy food in bulk from farmers and engage in trade with governments of other states.

The ports were active again. For states that were in the coastal areas, it meant more business. Almost all the coastal states started to work on their ports. States that already had ports like Cross River, Lagos and Rivers upgraded their ports in readiness for exportation services. Although the Nigeria Customs Service was in charge of all activities at the port, business around those areas meant states directly benefited from the new buzz in their states.

While a state allowed local businesses to thrive, it was efficient with its own state-run enterprises. State enterprises had several partnerships with private investors to drive growth. Public–private partnership was a common tool used by almost all states since they were desperate to kick-off development but were largely incapacitated by lack of finances. The quality of civil service delivery was impeccable. State governments raised the level of discipline required for civil servants. Government workers were punctual to their places of work and gave their best during service. They were also well remunerated and paid promptly. Another reasonable thing most state governments did was to adjust the government expenditures on salaries and allowances of elected officials. They avoided the flaw for which people derided the federal government. Elected officials still enjoyed handsome salaries, but not at a level that was detrimental to the country.

Civil organizations played a huge role in keeping the states on their toes. Due to the pervasive freedom of expression that citizens enjoyed, which had also allowed civilians support the pro-restructuring reformists, they were able to contribute to the development of their states through commendation and constructive criticism. States that were slow to act had indigenes on their tails. After all, Nigerians generally held more loyalties to their states and tribes than they did to the country. Thus, this was an avenue to finally prove that they had what it takes to govern themselves. Another good thing about this was that states were more ethnically homogenous. Therefore, when they enjoyed more power over their local resources, there was less agitation against the government. For example, Niger/Delta militants had no one to face but their own leaders to demand judicious use of their local resources. There was less vitriol directed at the federal government since it became apparent that the federal government had little or no obligation to placate sufferings in the local regions. In addition to this, the threat of ethnic clashes spreading to other states became almost non-existent. Thus, ethnic clashes dropped significantly. There were a few issues of discord within families over land ownerships especially when receiving compensation for lands acquired by the state.

Although it took a while for some states to pick up fully, the state governments that were able to get on their feet quickly took to providing key social services to their indigenes and residents. The schools were the primary points of focus for many states. State governments had two major tasks which were to improve the quality of learning in their schools and to bring more students into school who had dropped out or were unable to attend school. Northern states had more work to do. Since the federal government had played a bigger role in reducing the number of out-of-school children than the state governments themselves, the new governments were generally slow in lowering the disappointing statistics. Yet, gradual progress was made as states put more resources into basic education while giving out licenses to private individuals to build universities.

Nigeria's debt profile rose during this period. By 2029, debt to GDP ratio had risen to 50 per cent as state governments went wild on borrowing to support their early development as well as deliver on social welfare. Interest rate dropped below 10 per cent and businesses had access to credit facilities that helped them move forward. It was a monumental stage in Nigeria's history. Due to the abundance of food in the market, food inflation dropped below 10 per cent. This accompanied a rise in consumer spending as more money was in circulation. With the new reshuffle, state governments were able to manage the cost of governance from the start.

Nigeria's fortunes had changed due to the new model the country ran. Nigerians in diaspora were eager to return home to help their states move forward. Doctors, engineers, and several other professionals and specialists, whose services were critical to improving the lives of indigenes, were again available. The country entered an era of unprecedented development and citizens had never experienced a more fulfilling period in the history of the country.

Chapter Ten

Empty Dish

It is 1st October 2030. The country is a madhouse. Nigerians have never had it worse. The president maintains the country will continue to grow as one nation and any threat to the unity of the country will be met with stiff opposition. The president's speech is fraught with a bias review of the progress of the country as well as empty promises of a better future. Nigerians give no credence to the president's claims and continue to seek avenues to survive in the draconian society.

Nigeria had become a dangerous place to live (much like Libya in 2013). It was a state on the brink of a civil war and protests increased. As the president was giving his Independence Day speech, several protests erupted again in different parts of the country. Some of these protests were about the infringement of the government on civil rights. Others were just demanding that the country be returned to a saner state, something closer to 2017 Nigeria, at worst.

Due to the harsh rules that the government continued to put in place, in addition to detrimental populist policies, there had been a rise in the number of prominent activists. These activists acted without fear of the government and used every opportunity and channel they had to speak against the impunity of government. Activists continued to amass followers among the citizens since they represented the interests of the people. A number of them had garnered international support. Since the government found them a threat to its existence, some of these activists were arrested and detained. However, others continued to taunt the government to do its worst. The government was facing increasing opposition among the people but instead of reassessing some of its activities, it remained obstinate. Citizens were constantly harassed by the police, especially during protests. Some of these citizens were tortured or eventually killed. The values of the democratic system had been gradually eroded.

The standard of living of citizens in the country was poor. The Human Development Index of Nigeria had dropped to 0.39. More than 70 per cent of the population lived below 2 dollars a day. Unemployment rate was at a high, at 30 per cent. Consumer spending was low as citizens had difficulty earning respectable incomes. The productivity level of the average Nigerian had sunk since people were weighed down by so much worry. A common phrase heard on the street was 'E go better', usually followed by a heavy sigh.

Small units of rebel groups had started to form again under new and old names. It was not difficult to get new loyalists as people sought alternatives to their predicaments. Since the unemployment rate had started to rise, youths were prominent in the new groups. It was not long before they started to acquire their own weapons. However, the country's police force was efficient at keeping many of them at bay. Although, there had been clashes between rebel groups and the police, there were no major threats to the peace of the country by these groups. Yet, it was only a matter of time before more of these groups surfaced and along with abused activists, led a revolution against the government, .

Unsurprisingly, corruption was pervasive and much higher than 2015 levels. Government officials openly exhibited their extravagant lifestyles. Government projects were inflated and recycled. Officials stole allocations for social welfare. Although many people were aware of the thefts from government coffers, no one had enough evidence to bring culprits to book. This was because anti-corruption agencies had become government pet dogs and the judicial system was broken. Public service effectiveness took a nosedive. Politicians saw political positions as get-rich-quick schemes and exploited them as such. The Presidency sometimes created new offices to reward friends. When government officials were caught outside the country and convicted for corruption, they returned to the country to pomp and pageantry. Political parties were filled with sycophants who barely challenged the activities of the government. Some even employed several online influencers to keep their images clean and praise government's activities.

The economy had slowed down. The continued interference of the government in commercial activities had a negative effect on GDP growth. Poorly executed policies had also translated to the exit of several businesses. The roads were dilapidated and most of the country's infrastructure suffered neglect. Foreign investors were finding more reasons to leave the country. Nigerians in the diaspora had stayed away from the country and when they could, they took their relatives out of the country as well.

Religious centers were fuller than ever as religious leaders continued to sell hope to the people. People had turned to God to placate their sufferings as the government was failing in its job to do so. More importantly, people were praying for an end to the anguish caused by the government in power.

It was easy to imagine why many people were leaving the country. Those who could afford to go overseas packed and left, while others who could only afford to leave for neighboring African countries where things are a bit more favorable did so. The level of patriotism had dropped. Most people no longer cared about the country and they only looked forward to their emigration. The rise in voter apathy was also unsurprising. Only 30 per cent of registered voters voted at the most recent gubernatorial election in a particular state. People no longer felt their votes mattered, thus their participation dwindled.

It was difficult to imagine how the country depreciated to this level. Democracy was beginning to show so much promise in 2017 that it was easy to forecast a favorable future for the country. Even by 2019, just before the elections, Nigeria's economic turnaround was complete and the country was less at a risk of diving into another recession; except, of course, if oil prices dipped again. However, by 2030, the country was in a political and economic mess. To put things more succinctly, it was on the brink of collapse.

The country's descent into political mess started when agitations for restructuring and secession began to rise again. Some political analysts felt the government would be better run if it was restructured, while some felt the union of the different ethnic groups within the country bore no fruits and the country was due for a break up. The latter's claims were supported by the incessant ethnic clashes. These positions had grown into public debates and rented the air on social media platforms. Some political leaders, especially those who had fallen out of favor with the ruling political class had also thrown their weight behind the debates. Some settled for restructuring, while others thought secession might be an option. The consensus was that the unitary government had tried so long to move the country forward. While it enjoyed success in some areas, the country was generally lagging behind other nations of similar resources and population.

The government would have none of these. It may have agreed that there was a lot that needed to improve about the country, but it did not feel breaking up the country will help nor did it feel restructuring it could change the fortunes of the country; the country would remain one indivisible nation. The government's bid to keep discussions on restructuring and secession at bay meant it had to clamp down on people who led such discussions, whether online or offline. Rebel and secessionist groups were met with fire. With the aid of the police and soldiers, the government led attacks against groups that were identified as threats to the country's unity. The government formed joint task forces to launch a full campaign against people who sought to divide the country. Such people were labeled the country's enemies and the president stated that the government was resolute and unrelenting about keeping the country safe from such enemies.

This proved largely successful at first. Rebel groups found it difficult to withstand attacks from government forces. Leaders of secessionist groups were arrested and detained. Some fled the country before they could be apprehended and never returned. Online activists were warned not to make statements that could upset the country's unity.

The precedents of the approach made it a favorite for the government. Since secessionist and rebel groups were unable to access enough firepower to match those of the government's forces, they lost on several fronts. However, their recurrence was worrying. As soon as one rebel group was conquered, another sprung up. Thus, while the government was winning battles against rebel groups, it was not winning the war. Deaths due to terrorism started to rise again after the improvement recorded in 2017.

When civil rights and pro-liberty groups rose against the methods the government used, the government started to crack down on them too. They were accused of aiding and abetting mutiny. The government then introduced new reforms that required civil groups to re-register with the government. During this process, the government set up new regulations to which registered groups must adhere.

The government was largely hostile to unions. This included interest groups, student organizations and other forms of alliances among professionals. According to the government, such groups barely contributed to the development of the country or the communities in which they were domiciled. Rather, they continually disrupted the country's peace and lowered productivity through strike actions and protests. All groups were eventually required to take permission from the police before they carried out open demonstration; else, the police would meet them with stiff opposition if they went ahead on their own. The message was clear; the government needed enough freedom to do its work of building a formidable and responsible state, and it would not condone any distractions from doing this. Although the government started to achieve formidability, it evolved into a repressive government. As a repressive government, the rule of law was gradually eroded and government decisions could not be challenged in public.

Nigeria's descent into economic crisis in 2029 started when the government started to entertain populist policies that first showed huge signs of promise but became detrimental to the growth of the country. One thing the government and the people agreed on was that, despite the growth of the economy, the standard of living of citizens was not changing. It did not escape the country's leaders that failing to improve the lives of citizens will make the citizens more hostile. Citizens had already exhibited their ability to unseat ruling parties and install new ones. In addition to this, due to the crooked system of democracy practiced in the country, elected officials also needed to please the political class to make it easy for them to secure re-election. The government's bid to please both the masses and the political class—especially to secure reelection—put it on the highway to eventual doom. This sort of dilemma left the government in an unenviable position.

Thus, the government started to introduce new policies it believed would not only improve the welfare of the people but also help win more support for the administration. As Nigeria struggled to escape recession, the presidency started to devise new ways to boost the economy. There was an economic recession just after the 2015 elections, meaning that the new government was unable to kick-start some of its promising policies. Instead, it was saddled with the task of placating the suffering of the people. The government had not prepared to start on this note. First, it had to abandon its programs, and work on new plans to bring the state out of the economic recession. The government also knew it had very little time. Citizens will not judge it by what it intended to do but by what it was able to achieve. With such pressure piling on it, the government had to deliver on returning the economy to stability while yet fulfilling its outlandish campaign promises.

Although it took some time, the country eventually successfully crept out of recession. Early GDP growth rate was still below 2 per cent after this period. However, people were getting impatient. First they blamed the government for the consequences of the recession. This included the rise in unemployment. Over 2 million people had lost their jobs. Poverty rates rose. Inflation reached 15 per cent. The naira dwindled against other currencies and to make matters worse, foreign investors left the country. Several businesses closed down and that piled more pressure on the government to intervene.

In an ill-advised move, the government assumed that creating programs and direct assistance to improve the wellbeing of the people would solve the problem it faced. Oil price had started to rise again. This increased revenue for the government. Then, the government had a low debt to GDP level at just 18 per cent. It was comfortable with borrowing to support its welfare campaign.

The government created a plan where it envisaged oil prices will remain steady while it increased its oil production to over 2.5 million barrels per day. Efforts at diversification were idly postponed as the government successfully maneuvered the economic recession. The government concentrated its efforts on maximizing oil production and export. The government understood that if the country maintained the size of its oil revenue, the government would find it easier to help citizens, especially in the short term. What the government needed to do was obvious. The Presidency felt the need to placate the people's suffering and the need to do so very quickly.

One of its first moves was to lower the unemployment rate. The government opened up a new scheme where it started to employ young people. The scheme, according to the government, solved two problems. First, it put good talent to use and secondly, it actually lowered unemployment. Youth employment in the country hovered around 24 per cent. This made the intervention important. Youths employed were paid minimum wage. According to the government, the new jobs will put youths in a position to get better jobs as they would have garnered on-field experience and training that most private employers sought.

The initiative got both positive and negative reviews from applicants. While some were excited about getting employed one way or another, some believed that the scheme was unsustainable and only provided temporary relief for a huge problem. The socialist tendencies of the government had begun to manifest and for a country with a developing economy, this could spell doom. Perhaps the government could have taken some warnings from some state governments, like Osun State, where welfare programs virtually drove the state's finances into the ground. The state became entangled with a heavy debt profile and struggled to deliver on infrastructure.

Employing hundreds of thousands of youths gave a false sign of improvement in the country's effort to battle unemployment. People became heavily underemployed and were paid meager sums. The government then launched other initiatives such as paying unemployed youths, feeding school children among others.

While the government embarked on youth employment programmes, it made little attempt to support business owners. Instead, the government entered into competition with private enterprises as it sought to maximize its income. An example could be found in the transportation sector. The government purchased new buses and hired new officials to work as drivers. Then, it lowered the cost of transportation by almost fifty per cent to allow more people its services at a lower cost. According to the government, it was making progress on citizen's welfare.

These were only some of the populist ideas that the government entertained and started to implement. An increased section of educated citizens could see the holes government was creating and started to raise alarm. For a country that borrowed heavily to support its wage bill, plowing into another wage mess seemed strange. The sensible thing to do was cut down on the wage bill by reducing the cost of governance, improving the wages of underpaid civil servants and laying off unneeded workers. Instead, top political officers continued to gulp the larger percentage of the country's recurrent expenditure while increasing the size of the lower cadre of civil servants who received meager salaries.

Instead of creating structures that helped lower the cost of living of the people, the government introduced welfare programs such as the "13th month" salary, seasonal jumbo packages and increased minimum wage of workers. While the government continued with its 'money and benefit sharing' initiatives, several of the key activities of the government remained financially starved.

Several agencies of the government were underfunded. One of these was the Nigerian Police. Calls for police reforms and state policing were ignored. The government did not attempt to restructure the police force. Police officers remained underpaid and used outdated tools in combating crime. Members of the police force were not incentivised to put in their best to protect the country under such poor working conditions. Calling the police during an emergency only to be told that the police were unable to fuel their vehicle became a frequent and unsurprising occurrence.

Perhaps it would have been manageable if the police stopped at being inefficient. However, things became worse. Police officers infringed on people's rights and openly extorted citizens. The police also capitalized on the government's clamp down on restructuring and secession calls, amidst others to openly assault citizens. When citizens rose to challenge this perceived injustice, they were arrested, detained and tortured. At one point, citizens did not need to confront the police before they were subject to police brutality. Police officers randomly stopped people on the streets, accused them of bogus crimes, bundled them into their waiting vans and zoomed off to remote areas or their police stations. Such people were tortured for several days in police detention. Some of these people died in custody while others were only lucky to leave after parting with exorbitant sums of money. The spate of this increased over the decade. As we discovered in our trends, police brutality was already common within the country. However as the government grew repressive, it used the police force and sometimes soldiers to keep the people under control. People were randomly accused of crimes and detained without fair hearing. The absence of due process, rule of law and the seeming impunity that existed in the police force further fuelled the problem.

During this time, corruption remained unabated. Although the government revived the anti-corruption agencies, it struggled to convict any major political offender successfully. News about corruption made the rounds in the media but citizens found it hard to lay hands on the progress the government was making asides throwing out periodic propaganda. When the government passed the Whistle Blower act in 2017, its primary goal was to support the fight against corruption by increasing exposure of financial crimes and rewarding whistle blowers. Whistle blowers were encouraged and offered protection from intimidation or harassment that may occur from their roles in uncovering financial crimes. The government hoped looted funds would be recovered by encouraging voluntary information from the public. The government pledged to reward whistle blowers with between 2.5 per cent and 5 per cent of the recovered loot, provided there was a voluntary return of such stolen funds or public asset because of the information provided.1 The act appeared to work at first, and then the government's habit of initiating policies and failing to implement them soon kicked in. Some whistle blowers who exposed certain financial crimes, as required by the government, found it hard to get their rewards. Some even had to sue the government to recover some of such rewards. Several times, the government paid the whistle blowers much lesser than the agreed percentage of the loot.

The government's attitude towards whistle blowers and its selective prosecution soon made it obvious that the government was only paying lip service to its bid to fight corruption. While several political office holders had initially tapered down on their zeal to make away with public funds, they soon began to re-emerge from hiding and corruption made its way back into the system at full force. The level of corruption that ensued was frightening. The government's attitude was aggravated by the poor justice system. Court cases, especially those involving prominent figures, were either swept under the carpet or took too many years to complete. Large amounts of money disappeared from the government's treasury. Some of these monies were stolen via inflated and recycled projects. Recovered loots were re-stolen. The eroded justice system was not only instrumental to increasing the spate of corruption, crime rates also skyrocketed. Since people no longer trusted the justice system, they took law into their own hands. Retaliation became the norm. It became a common thing to hear that people were assassinated overnight. The country gradually descended into chaos.

As the government continued to prioritize welfare policies, it failed to pay enough attention to the decaying infrastructure that could have supported the growth of the economy. The government took too long to complete infrastructural projects. The slow infrastructural development meant that private businesses found it hard to cope. Power supply remained erratic and roads were ridden with potholes. It took forever to complete railway projects. All these raised the cost of doing business within the country. Businesses spent heavily on fuelling their generators.

The government also created programs for other sectors too. The education, health and energy sectors were some of the areas that barely got the right kind of attention. However, the people in these sectors were beneficiaries of the government's benevolence. Things showed promise, until oil price started to fall again. The fall in oil prices could easily have been envisaged. This was because of the aggressiveness that became characteristic of countries that signed the Paris Agreement towards creating cities that depended mostly on renewable energy. India, Spain and other countries who were major buyers were either trying to move to renewable energy or creating smart cities that ran on renewable energy.

The country's diversification efforts had also failed. The government failed to identify the key agricultural produce that could serve as the key export products for the country. This meant it created agricultural programs that threw its focus across board but eventually gained nothing. Although farmers had benefited from steady distribution of free farm inputs such as fertilizer from the government, a better solution would have been to empower farmers enough so that they can purchase their own inputs and fertilizers. Similarly, setting up an enabling environment for businesses who offered agricultural services in rural areas would have changed the fortunes of farmers. Rather, farmers received handouts and were dependent on the government to thrive. To support the farmers, the government further created agricultural boards that provided post harvest services such as storage and off taking for farmers.

The government also held on tightly to the mining industry. With different mining opportunities littered around the country, the government sought to go after them all. However, the country's inefficient public service ensured the government spent several years trying to kick-start mining operations. While the government was willing to allow some partnerships in the mining industry, it was unwilling to deregulate it. Development in the mining industry was slow and the industry soon began to suffer fates similar to what it suffered before.

The manufacturing sector continued on its steady rise in productivity. However, the slow development of infrastructure and provision of social amenities ensured that manufacturers continued to produce under unfavorable conditions. The government also reclaimed some of the previously privatized companies like the Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited.

Electricity remained erratic. After the widely publicized privatization of the country's distribution and generation companies, the new private companies realized they enjoyed a new form of monopoly. As it were, the consumers could only use distribution companies in their areas and were unable to switch to other options. Soon the new companies raised the electricity tariffs. The government did not call them to order. Instead, the government distributed generators and solar lamps as welfare packages to citizens.

Healthcare improved at first. The government distributed free drugs and medical supplies to hospitals. It also created several schemes where patients could get treated or tested for one ailment or another for free. The National Health Insurance Scheme still struggled to attain widespread coverage. Instead, the government went on to build more health centers and employ new health professionals.

The government seemed to have a handle on the growth of the country. In addition to its welfare packages, the government had set up new public enterprises that directly competed with the private sector. Asides from oil, the government was borrowing heavily to support its welfare state. The debt to GDP ratio reached record high at 62 per cent. Although oil price dwindled, there was initially no sharp decrease in price. This ensured the government had a smooth ride for the first few years of its welfare policies.

These went on till things started to change. The world's economy had started to change dramatically and demand for oil suffered a sharp decrease. The country's debt to GDP ratio was so high the country was unwilling to take any more financial risks. The economy soon started to decline. GDP growth alternated between one per cent and two per cent throughout the latter part of the decade. Since the government maintained its heavy reliance on oil, whenever oil prices fell sharply, the country flirted with recession with negative GDP growth. The government's approach to diversification ensured it remained vulnerable to oil price drops.

As funding for the government's spending dwindled, citizens started to feel the hardship more intensely. When oil price took a nosedive, the economy shrank again. High inflation set in and people started to ration their food intake. More people dropped below the poverty line. The government struggled to pay salaries. Poverty rate reached 70 per cent while unemployment rate was pegged at 30 per cent.

Arguably one of the worst hit sectors was education. In schools, the government had declared free feeding for students. This was supported by other initiatives where the government gave out free exercise books and school uniforms amidst other things. Such moves were befuddling since the decay in the educational system of the country appeared to be obvious. Rather than provide schools with better facilities, remunerate teachers promptly and properly, the government resorted to student welfare programs. Such policies, resonated among the masses, but in the long run they became a burden to the government and its finances. School buildings were dilapidated, funds for feeding were eventually misappropriated, and teachers went on strike actions regularly. The performance of students in national examinations worsened. Universities around the country closed down periodically as students confronted authorities on the lack of power and water supply. This was in addition to the decaying facilities and outdated curriculums in the universities. Lecturers also boycotted classes as the government failed to pay their allowances and salaries. The state of public universities worsened. Parents who could afford it considered sending their wards to private universities instead. The exorbitant prices did not matter to them. Sometimes, students travelled to neighboring African countries like Ghana and Benin Republic for their tertiary education. People who attended the universities needed extra qualifications to apply for jobs. When employers are unable to employ foreign-trained workers, they had to spend more on retraining workers who schooled in the country's public universities. There was a general dearth of trust in the local education system and only those who had no other choice remained in those schools.

Housing programs by the government had shown early promise as well. The government went ahead to buy lands and built low cost homes to resettle families who had become homeless. The approach the government pursued in delivering homes to people was unsustainable, especially as the government's income tap was susceptible to economic risks. Some of the housing projects were eventually abandoned and those that were completed were not enough to address the country's housing deficits.

Due to the low investment in infrastructure, many private healthcare centers found it difficult to operate. First was the cost of real estate, which hindered doctors from setting up new practices. The failure of the National Health Insurance Scheme also meant such guaranteed revenues were eliminated. Since more people now lived in poverty, they could not afford the prices that private healthcare services considered as optimal. Medical equipment was quite expensive and the worsening naira value was not helping matters. Public hospitals did not have it any better. Most hospitals were short on medical supplies and staff. The government had supplied them at first but after a while allocations for such supplies were either embezzled or were just not enough to cater to the needs of the patients. Maternal and infant mortality rate rose once again. The World Health Organization recorded that Nigeria had the worst maternal and infant mortality rate in the world as 120 women died daily during childbirth. Under-five infant mortality ratio reached 150 per 1000 births. Life expectancy dropped below 50 years and the access to quality healthcare was poor and even poorer in the rural areas.

Key industries also suffered from the government's ill advised moves. Manufacturing companies had started to close shop. The cost of running production within the country had become so high it became economically better to import. Several workers were laid off as manufacturing companies changed the nature of their businesses in order to remain in business. As the government struggled to meet its budget requirements, it enforced new laws to generate more income. It raised taxes and then mandated citizens to patronize public enterprises for certain services. This created more hardship for citizens.

The weak justice system not only encouraged the repression of citizen's civil liberties, it had started having a direct effect on the banks. Non-performing loans were, again, on the rise. Another banking crisis loomed.

As living standards worsened, tension among the citizens grew. The support that the government enjoyed at first began to dwindle. In the streets were agitated youths who, at the slightest provocation, could cause uproar. Citizens took to social media to voice their opinions about the state of the country and how the government was destroying what was left of it. Rebel groups started to rise again. The uprisings became frequent. Public disobedience became widespread. Political activists formed coalitions and built their followership. Those who kept their ears close to the ground could hear a revolution looming. Citizens concluded that the government was their enemy and if the country was going to move forward, they had to take the ruling political class out.

Today, 1st October 2030, as the president delivers his Independence Day speech to Nigerians, the country is on the verge of a major coup. The coup plotters are the masses. The dish is now empty and a revolution looms.

Chapter Eleven

Broken China

It is October 2030. Nigeria has ceased to exist. The country has broken up along ethnic, cultural and religious fault lines. There are still conflicts going on at new borders. Although the breakup was anticipated, citizens still found it difficult to come to terms with their new realities. The new independent states look towards a new future.

Just about 20 years after Nigeria celebrated the centenary, the country had broken up into several independent states along ethnic fault lines. What resulted was a loose union of ethnically homogeneous states. Decades of poor decisions and corruption had resulted in an unsustainable system that ultimately led to the collapse of the world's most populous black nation. The most prominent nationalist leaders of each of the ethnic groups that formed the new states were automatically chosen as the leaders of their respective states. There were several ethnic clashes still going on at the borders and within the new states. The fact that many Nigerians had found home in neighboring states and thought themselves deeply rooted in those communities meant starting afresh in their new homes was traumatic and difficult. Several families lost their belongings and businesses in the conflicts that broke out during the split. Although the events were gradual and largely controlled, indigenes were keen on taking over properties of non-indigenes. The grapple was worse due to the scathing poverty.

While some of the regions had started to reorganize their political structure, other regions were still mired in conflict. The African Union had waded in and achieved a measure of progress with the peace talks. The presence of international relief organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) was still heavy in several suburbs of the former country. Many people had lost their lives.

A number of government facilities—say a few major airports—were still functioning. But beyond the airports, many parts of the country were embroiled in conflict. New powers were emerging, mostly dictated by both the old guard and new rebel leaders who had amassed large followings. There was a high level of insecurity and repression of human rights as might be expected of a country at war. Schools had closed down and some served as humanitarian camps. Some hospitals were filled with casualties from the raging conflicts. Not all parts of the country were at war. However, most people across the country were apprehensive. Many affluent families had left the country while those who were unable to leave had converged with their relatives. Many of them were uncertain about the future. Several businesses were still up and running but business owners were careful. The absence of law enforcement agencies meant that little disputes easily scaled into bloodshed. Rebel groups targeted other ethnic groups within their territories. Several families had paid transporters to help them move safely to their states of origin.

The country had broken up into five regions. There was the likelihood of even more breakups as ethnic groups continued to deliberate whether they could live together or not. The north remained the largest of the new states. There was relative peace in the Western Region but South-Southern Nigeria and Eastern Nigeria were still involved in heavy conflicts along their borders. The 2nd Niger Bridge continued to be under siege.

The youth who had participated heavily in the tumultuous breakup of the country were divided. The level of ruin that had occurred meant that many would have to start their lives all over again. Several state houses of assembly were filled with politicians seeking audiences to debate paths for their new countries.

How did we come to that point? We highlight five driving forces that were instrumental in the balkanization of Nigeria. While the government had good intentions, some of these plans that it had mismanaged eventually led to its downfall.

The first driving force was the economy. The inefficiency of the government in catering to the country had become apparent. The fact that, by 2017, more than 70 per cent of the states were by on the brink of economic collapse was a terrible sign. States have a more direct impact on the lives of citizens than the federal government. What this meant was that state governments struggled to improve the standard of living of indigenes and were incapable of providing facilities necessary for human development. Most of the states depended on government allocation to carry out major projects and to pay salaries. When such support was not forthcoming, these state governments remained stagnated and left their people struggling.

As things started to fall apart, when oil revenue started to dip again, economic analysts pointed out how fallible Nigeria's economic position was. Since most states remained dependent on the federal government's revenue, it immediately told on the citizens. Although Nigeria had grown to be the largest economy in Africa, the fact that more than half of its citizens wallowed in poverty undermined that achievement. Unemployment rate had risen so high and stood at 25 per cent. About 80 per cent of the citizens lived on less than 2 dollars a day.

GDP growth quickly slowed down to 1 per cent. Nigerians started getting poorer and consumer spending slowed down. More people began to save for the rainy day. This meant trade slowed down. Inflation set in and rose to 18 per cent as people struggled to access money to do business. With interest rate rising to 30 per cent for several banks, businesses found it difficult to borrow money. Non-performing loans also increased as debtors found it hard to pay their creditors. Diversification efforts took too long to materialize. The government had realized the need to shift attention to a few new sectors rather late. Although it had invested heavily in agriculture, its inability to focus on a few products for export meant that there was abundant food in the country but it had little effect on the nation's foreign reserves.

As government was unable to translate the effect of the growing economy to improved quality of life for the average citizen, people started to doubt the viability of the Nigerian government. While some rooted for restructuring, others chose the extreme route of secession.

The second driving force was the level of corruption in the country. The gulf between the ruling class and the ruled was one of the prominent causes of Nigeria's breakup. Corruption had continued unchecked in government circles and within the civil service. The spate of corruption was worrisome and several government officials no longer hid their involvement in corrupt deals. Anti-corruption agencies had become mere political tools and had done very little in curbing corruption among the political elite. To make matters worse, the justice system was broken and it took several years to prosecute a single corruption case.

In some cases, corrupt officials were granted state pardon and, once again, allowed to serve in the government. Huge amounts of public funds disappeared in broad daylight and many of such funds remained untraceable. While millions of Nigerians lived under a dollar a day, politicians flaunted their wealth on social media. In the middle of this decadence, the government failed to provide for the needs of the people. Hospitals lacked important equipment to treat patients. Funds allocated to provide key services to the citizens were misappropriated. In some cases, projects were started but not completed. At other times, substandard materials were used for government projects which resulted in the short life span of these projects. Many of the roads the government built were soon reduced to dust, almost immediately after they were commissioned. Such road projects then somehow found their ways back into the national budget for the following year.

Corruption in the civil service escalated as well. Job applicants paid huge sums of money to be considered to interview for jobs. Clerks demanded bribes to fix meetings and forward files. Citizens paid bribes to access important public utilities. The lack of faith of the people in the willingness of the authorities to crackdown on corruption worsened the spate of corrupt practices in the country.

The police did not do much to mitigate crime and corruption. Rather, they became vanguards of the two. As against the widely publicized mantra, people paid heavy sums of money to get bail. Since the police found this lucrative, they soon resorted to arresting random people on the street and accusing them of bogus charges. These people were detained and the police usually refused to release them until their people came for them. Police added brutality to their corruption and terrified citizens.

Nigeria fell to 150th position on the Transparency International's Corruption Index. Corruption became institutionalized. As the people struggled to survive each day, the insane amount of corruption that had become pervasive in the government and the blatant misuse of power started to incite a high level of bitterness among them. When the secessionist groups hit the streets, it became apparent that the people did not only loathe the ruling class, they loathed the engine through which they exploited citizens.

Another thing that had become worrisome was the spate of ethnic violence that was rocking the country. Ethnic clashes constituted the third driving force. Earlier, the Nigerian military had achieved some success suppressing the terrorist groups in the north and south-south. However, not much attention was paid to the interethnic conflicts that were brewing. The conflicts between Fulani herdsmen and several of the tribes they met in the course of their nomadic adventure across the country fuelled new ethnic bitterness which the government continued to ignore. This led to thousands of deaths and the fact that a lot of these deaths did not reach the media meant that many people were unaware of the spate of violence going on in the country. Since majority of the people in government were Northerners and the victims of the Fulani attacks were mostly from other tribes, people thought that the government was intentionally ignoring the devilish acts. What further fuelled those sentiments was the government's crackdown on South-South and South Eastern Nigeria with the Nigerian Army while it did nothing to quell the violence that the Fulani herdsmen caused.

From the point of Nigeria's independence, it had been a tussle for power among the major ethnic groups. The minorities also sought representation, but not in the same way the major ethnic groups did. In addition to the ethnic divide, there was the religious divide. However, the ethnic disparities played a more important role in Nigeria's disintegration. The government's inability to douse tension arising between neighboring ethnic groups was instrumental to the downfall of the country.

After the 2019 elections, politicians who lost in keenly contested elections started to play the race card. There were, first, little clashes in different regions, which the government overlooked. The police took the reactionary approach to such conflicts and did little to mitigate them. Some of these clashes involved ethnic minorities while others, like clashes between Hausa and Igbos also occurred. Expectedly, it would take irresolvable conflict between the largest ethnic groups to threaten the country's unity. However, clashes among ethnic minorities played as much pivotal role. The unrelenting disputes among neighboring ethnic groups started to fuel the notion that the 'Nigerian experiment' had begun to fail. The funny thing about ethnic disputes in Nigeria is that many ethnic groups have the fear of being subjected to other ethnic groups' dominance. In several instances, each ethnic group is trying to make sure they are not being cheated out of opportunities they should normally enjoy. It was these conflicts, which caused secessionists groups to rise again and many ethnic groups started to accuse one another of conducting ethnic cleansings. Each group built a militia to fight its cause and went ahead to acquire weapons. The country gradually turned into a war zone.

The inefficient manner in which the government had tackled calls for secession in the past was one of the things that led to its downfall. The government had left trails of bitterness in the hearts of secessionist agitators who only sought the next opportunity to hit back. In 2017, the government had used its usual approach to suppress Nnamdi Kanu and his growing supporters. Member of the Nigerian Army had stormed the streets of Umuahia to intimidate the secessionist leaders and members of IPOB. The state government had to institute a curfew to reduce the tension that was brewing. A few days after the crackdown, the Biafra National Guard (BNG) had issued a warning to the Nigerian military that it would rise to defend Biafran agitators should the army continue. This did not deter the army from mounting pressure on the agitators until the secessionist group reported that Nnamdi Kanu was nowhere to be found.

As the government successfully suppressed the threats that pro-Biafra agitators posed at that time, it ignored the new structure that the groups had formed. Under Nnamdi Kanu's leadership, pro-Biafra agitators, who were formerly separate groups, had united. They had also enjoyed audience and support from several Igbo leaders. Whenever the government used force against the group or other agitators, these Igbo leaders started to speak against the government. In addition to becoming a single large entity, the Biafra National Guard (BNG) served as the group's militia. First armed with simple weapons like machetes, clubs and so on, the militia eventually acquired the right weapons to enable it defend itself against government forces. The group had then gone silent for a while until secessionist calls hit the country's airwaves again.

A number of countries had declared it unsafe for their citizens to travel to Nigeria. The country had degenerated into a hotbed of conflicts and ethnic groups sought to fight perceived oppression by one another. The relentless disputes led to the deaths of thousands of Nigerians.

The fourth driving force was the political structure of the country. The political structure of Nigeria had always been a thing of concern. One of the reasons is the revenue sharing formula. Since Nigeria gained independence, there had been several debates on the revenue sharing formula employed by the government. Different commissions such as the Professor Aboyade Commission (1978) and Okigbo Presidential Commission (1980) had come up with different formulae over the years. The revenue allocation formula used post-2010 was:1

Federal Government - 52.68%

State Government - 26.72%

Local Government - 20.60%

The structure of the Nigerian government made it difficult for the federal government to allocate larger share of revenue to the state governments. In some states, local governments also found it difficult to receive funds from the state government. There were times when state governments even refused to conduct local government elections on time so as to free up more funds for them from the money coming from the federal government's coffers.

Asides this, key areas in the country remained underdeveloped due to the structure of the country. Most of the development by the federal government was concentrated in the country's capital, Abuja. Railway services had enjoyed very little progress since the colonial era. The inland waterways were not utilized to ease public transportation. Federal highways were dilapidated and people spent double the time required on the road due to the humongous failure in road infrastructure. Although the power of trade unions had been minimized, government workers went on strike periodically to protest unpaid salaries. The housing deficit continued to pile. Government-backed housing schemes did not enjoy any significant progress. The National Health Insurance Scheme managed to cover less than ten per cent of the population in about two decades since its introduction.

Schools were largely underfunded. State governments did not earn enough to carry out major reforms to improve schools. Teachers were poorly paid and most times they were owed salaries for several months. Universities were constantly closed as students and staff always protested, demanding for one thing or the other. The universities lacked the required facilities to train the country's workforce adequately. Despite the obvious rot, the minister of education always claimed the government was doing its best. Nigeria continued to maintain its position as the country with the highest number of out-of-school children. Students who had the means quickly left the country to access better education. The number of Nigerian students who applied for scholarships to study abroad rose sporadically. Often, students even sought admission in neighboring countries whose universities were previously not as good as their Nigerian counterparts. Students who stayed and graduated were barely employable. University lecturers combined lecturing jobs in private universities with their careers in public universities.

The healthcare sector experienced much the same mishaps. Hospitals were lacking in facilities, patients had to travel to other countries to get adequate medical care, doctors went on strike intermittently. More doctors left the country to work in Europe or the Middle East, some even took job offers in other African countries. The ratio of doctors to patients dropped from 1: 6000 to 1: 10,000. People died of neglect in medical hospitals. Healthcare was generally on a decline and the government was struggling to help. With population growth at 2.1 per cent, Nigeria strained to cater to its expansive populace.

Had the government not been making huge efforts at providing several of these key services, Nigerians might have considered that electing better leaders would solve their problems. That was not the case. People felt that no matter how good the leaders were, the system had been designed to make even the most genuinely productive effect to amount to little. This system included the structure of the government which was designed for the military era, the country's history of forced amalgamation, and the perpetually warring tribes who juggled between tolerance and bitterness. The problems the country faced since independence remained the same—high poverty rate, high unemployment rate, corruption, nepotism, favoritism and poor delivery of key social services. In addition to these, the need to satisfy myriads of ethnic groups with limited government positions, especially when merit had to be forgone, started leading to regressive decisions being made by successive administrations. It appeared that the country had to change one way or another, for things to get better.

As the country continued to struggle to deliver key social services to the people, the agitation for restructuring had become thunderous again. This accompanied debates on national TV and social media by activists and pro-restructuring agitators alike about the way forward for the country. Government officials were not enthusiastic to comment on such debates. The Presidency continued to affirm that Nigerians would eventually conclude on the way forward. However, as these debates went on, secessionist groups had begun to rise to take advantage of the perceived weakness from the federal government. Political analysts predicted the possibility of a breakup as public dissent grew. According to them, Nigerians had tried several times to remodel the country and change its leaders but the results were all the same.

The federal government was hesitant about unleashing the Nigerian Army on its own citizens. What made it more difficult to do so was that the conflicts raged in multiple places across the country. These conflicts were not results of the activities of one or two rebel leaders. The country, which had always been at discomfort with itself, was finally giving way. There was little the government could do at this point. If the soldiers interfered, there was bound to be more casualties, and the agitations would not cease. Instead of adding to the casualties that the nation already suffered, the government sought new ways to calm the rising tension.

As it became certain that the country would give way, the country's leaders made last ditch efforts to salvage the situation. This included meeting with heads of secessionist groups to help ensure that the breakup did not result in more casualties. As things continued to unravel, people were more and more uncertain about the future of new states. They endured the fuzziness but were also excited about the possibilities a brilliant future. At this point, it all depended on the decisions the new leaders made. If secession was truly the right answer to the Nigerian question, they would find out in a few years.

Chapter Twelve

To Our Future and Beyond

Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. The present is theirs; the future, for which I have really worked, is mine.

-Nikola Tesla

The wisdom behind scenario planning is to enable us prepare for the future. The future is inevitable and our lives depend on how we respond to it, whatever form it takes. Our longing to know what will happen in the future remains inviolable, despite the fact that no one can accurately predict it. Nevertheless, the decisions we make will eventually affect the kind of future we have. What is peculiar to this case is that there are several players, both within and without, whose decisions will also affect our future. That is why this scenario planning process is important.

As humans, in the midst of uncertainty, we are constantly craving certainty, anyhow we could arrive at it. Therefore, it would not be surprising if readers start permuting which of the futures will materialize. That is not the purpose of this book. Think of this as a guide in a forest as you try to find your way out. You do not know the exit; perhaps there are many exits. Nevertheless, you would eventually follow only one. The decisions you make in the forest will lead you to only one of the eventualities that might occur. This book is not a map out of the forest. Instead, it lets you understand what might happen if you make certain decisions; since those decisions will be based on the time, place and events that occur at the time you make them, and you are yet to make them. You could only make those decisions at a point in your journey, sometime in the near future. The fact that you cannot know what decisions you will make in the near future, makes this more relatable. Thus, this book serves as a pointer to the future on the possible consequences of the decisions and actions of several entities in Nigeria as the country ushers in a new decade.

One thing we recognize is that decisions that affect the country's future will not be taken by a single class of entities. For example, the government may decide to be repressive, but the decision to start a secessionist group will come from another individual. Whether a policy is successful is determined by the effectiveness of the government in implementing that policy and the response of citizens. However, the government's ability to fund such policy-backed actions also plays an important role. In the case of Nigeria, a funding success would be affected by the price of oil at that time and perhaps the strength of financial institutions to support the major actors that will ensure those policies are well implemented. Thus, we have a web of actors whose decisions are quite important in determining our future. Some of these actors may be within our control while others may not. This situation is explained by the Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect elaborates that changes that disrupt an entire outcome can come from the most unexpected and perhaps most undermined places. This is why we had to pay attention to as much players as we were able to capture while trying to portend our future.

The process of deciding how our future will pan out using scenario planning started with understanding the important trends relating to our study. If we needed to view a different future for Nigeria, we would have studied a different set of trends. For this, we conducted a PES (political, economic and social) trend analysis to determine the political future of the country. One of the most important topics people are talking about is restructuring. While some people believe that our country needs to be redesigned to improve the standard of living in the country, others believe we just need better leaders who care about the people. Some are angling for secession, while others just want a proper and equitable use of the country's resources. Thus, we portend what events will lead to what future. How this helps analysts and citizens is that they can begin to track events that are occurring in the country. Then, they can plot those events on a map to reveal the direction the country is taking. Furthermore, they can begin to make important personal or business decisions based on an informed imagery.

As we completed the trend analysis, we went on to find out which were the most impactful and most uncertain trends. Our most important trend was whether the government would run a formidable and united state or a weak and divisible state. Our most uncertain trend was whether the government will be able to provide key services that improved the lives of citizens. With these, we designed our scenario matrix. The quadrant allowed us into the future of Nigeria through four scenarios. These four scenarios were named Full Course, The Buffet, Empty Dish and Broken China.

In this Chapter, we highlight some of the trends analysts should look out for to decide which of the futures is playing out.

In Full Course, the state becomes authoritarian and repressive of any bid whatsoever that threatens the unity of the country. The government is successful, using the combined military and police force, tackling insurgency as well as rebellions. As the government continues to ensure the no one can disrupt the peace of the country, it extends its forceful arm against citizens and civil right groups. Thus, it limits the freedom of expression among Nigerians. However, this government is sensitive to the plight of Nigerians and is willing to crush anything on its path towards providing a better life for citizens.

Thus,as freedom of expression becomes limited, the government ventures into designing a plan to deliver key services to the country. Understanding that taking up all that work on its own is writing an invite to abysmal failure, the government starts to form partnerships with the private sector. To make such partnerships effective, the government lowers inhibitions to doing business by improving access to credit and giving tax breaks, among others. Although government borrows large sums of money to finance some of its projects, the debt to GDP ratio remains under control. The government addresses diversification of the economy as one of its key agenda. It starts a major export promotion scheme. Focusing on the most important resources and products from the country, the government enjoys some success in adjusting the balance between oil and non-oil revenue. Power sector reforms are critical to the growth of the country. The government reviews the existing privatization of the DisCos and GenCos and creates a more competitive market for the sale, generation and distribution of electricity. The government also extends its firm control to the education sector. Launching new education policies, the government sacks incompetent teachers and monitors the administration of universities and other public schools. In addition to this, the government raises the budgetary allocation to the education sector and puts up an accountability process that ensures such money provides the required resources for learning. The deregulation of the mining industries to allow private companies drive growth in the sector as well as governmental efforts at reviving the manufacturing sector are some of the important steps the government takes to build a strong economy.

The results are that, although the freedom of speech and liberties of Nigerians are sometimes undermined, they enjoyed a boost in their standard of living. The economy experiences unprecedented growth as GDP growth rate steadies at 6 per cent. Unemployment rate drops below 10 per cent and more people leap out of poverty. The naira strengthens against the dollar. Nigerians live longer and healthier. They have more money to spend as well as access to good housing, good schools, and opportunities to start their own businesses.

To identify if this future is playing out, we have listed a number of flags to help. If these set of events occur, then we are tending towards this future.

FLAGS | REMARK

---|---

1. The government is unyielding to restructuring calls and becomes a repressive unitary government.

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2. The government launches assaults against rebel groups, secessionist groups and civil rights societies.

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3. Casualties from terrorism continue to drop over the decade.

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4. Government issues police reform and revamps the police force.

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5.Freedom of information and expression but government routinely assaults people it considers threats to national peace and unity.

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6. The economic growth rates rises and steadies at 6 per cent.

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7. Increase in public–private partnership to deliver key social services.

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8. Increase in budget spending on education and meticulous implementation of new education reforms.

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9. Government decentralizes power supply.

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10. Government becomes aggressive on export promotion schemes and increases net export product.

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11. Tax collection process is simplified and more efficient and number of taxpayers increases significantly.

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12. Voter confidence rises and more people partake in political activities.

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13. The naira appreciates against the dollar.

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14. Rise in foreign direct investment and entrepreneurial culture among citizens.

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15. Government reviews the Land Use Act.

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16. Low social welfare redistributionist programs as against high economic growth focused policies.

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17. Unemployment rate drops below 20 per cent.

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18. Government introduces new measures regulating the media and the civil society.

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19. Relative rise in capital expeniture and relative drop in recurrent expenditure.

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In the Second Scenario, The Buffet, the state starts to realize that despite its efforts to create important policies, it is repeatedly slow, uneven and sometimes unsuccessful in improving the lives of the average citizen. The government begins to entertain the ideas about restructuring. During this period, several political analysts, politicians and citizens are also calling for the government to restructure the government. They believe the country is underachieving and only through reviewing the country's structure will any progress be made. The government takes steps towards redesigning the state and after the process is complete, the government succeeds in its devolution of power to state governments.

This opens up a new era for the country. State governments now have more resources to implement their plans. States with visionary and effective leaders ignited series of discussions that will drive their state's growth. Many Nigerians in diaspora return to the country to support the growth of their states with their skills. The state governments institute state police forces, refurbish railway services, amidst other developmental moves that had been hampered under the previous government structure.

In this scenario, citizens enjoy improved state of living without foregoing their civil liberties. Although, they now pay more taxes to the government, they can see the growth of the economy and the state around them. Nigerians are more prosperous. The influx of jobs that came with decentralization helped to reduce unemployment rate. Citizens have access to quality healthcare and the quality of the civil service improves. Schools are properly funded. The private sector plays a huge role in helping these state governments experience rapid development. On the other hand, some states still find it difficult to move forward. A gap begins to grow among states. This informs population redistribution and state indigenes move from one state to another seeking better livelihoods.

The following are flags one should watch out for to determine if this scenario is playing out.

FLAGS | REMARKS

---|---

1. The government and political parties entertain restructuring plans.

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2. Unrestrained freedom of information and expression

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3. Government policies, even when properly executed, are largely ineffective.

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4. Economic growth rate rises but standard of living of citizens remains low.

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5. Effective transitioning from unitary government to true federalism.

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6. State governments implement new economic growth focused policies

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7. Revenue sharing system is reversed and states contribute to the federal government.

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8. Increase in public–private partnership in states.

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9. Remodeling of electric power supply and distribution.

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10. State governments run a more efficient and effective civil service after reforms.

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11. Protest levels decline and there is a reduction in civil disobedience.

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12. Casualties and frequency of ethnic clashes drop.

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13. State remains involved in economic activities but supports the private sector to thrive.

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14. Commencement of interstate trade among government trade boards.

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15. Nigerians in diaspora return to participate in local development.

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16. Government introduces investor protection agreements.

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17. Nigeria enjoys a huge jump in the Ease of Doing Business Index.

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18. Tax base expands significantly.

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19. Unemployment rate drops below 10 per cent.

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20. Rising level of corruption but also an improved judicial and law enforcement system.

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21. Inauguration of State Police.

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22. Capital expenditure rises while recurrent expenditure relatively drops.

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Empty Dish, our third scenario reveals a repressive government which starts to get many things wrong. Here, the government introduces several welfare programs in order to improve the lives of citizens directly. Due to limited resources, the government has to forgo several developmental projects that could support the growth of the economy. At first, citizens enjoy the new attention from the government, but things start to change when the government is unable to continue to dole out its periodic largesse. The economy winds down as soon as oil prices take another dip.

Activists, as well as rebel groups, start to rise in protest against the government's ineffectiveness. What makes the people even angrier is the spate of corruption in government. Government officials lived in affluence, either on the bill of the State or through looted funds. Anti-corruption agencies become toothless dogs. The government meets these rebelling groups with force. In the midst of this, the government clamps down on freedom of speech and the civil liberties of the citizens. As the lives of the people worsen, agitations become uncontrollable. Although the police force has been equipped to manage these kinds of events, public disobedience starts to spiral out of hand. Rebel groups and activist are vocal about the need to change the government and replace government officials with better leaders. As tension grows, the country moves closer to the start of a civil war.

Watch out for these flags to know if this scenario is playing out.

FLAGS  | REMARKS

---|---

1. The government has grown into a cruel and repressive authority.

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2. There is heavy control on access to state information.

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3. Freedom of expression and information are eroded.

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4. High level of corruption.

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5. Capital expenditure drops while recurrent expenditure continues to rise.

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6. Government maintains a high cost of governance.

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7. Continued reliance on oil revenue as diversification efforts fail.

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8. Government focuses on social welfare programs ahead of economic growth focused policies.

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9. The government leads in youth employment.

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10. Heavy regulation of the mining industry remains.

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11. Rise in government run enterprises that compete with the private sector.

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12. The economy dabbles between low growth rates and recession.

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13. Nigeria further drops on the Ease of Doing Business Index.

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14. Civil service remains inefficient and corrupt.

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15. Low tax rate and unexacting implementation.

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16. Police Brutality.

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17. Voter apathy rises and people are passive about political activities.

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18. Weak financial and judicial institutions.

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The fourth scenario, Broken China, is a future where the country breaks up into several parts. As the government struggles to deliver on key services to the people, secessionist groups rise to take advantage of the situation. This leads to widespread conflict as the country breaks along ethnic lines.

Prior to this, the economy had dwindled again and more than 80 per cent of the country slid into poverty. Unemployment rate approached 30 per cent. Many of the country's infrastructures were dilapidated. Schools were begging for attention and people died in hospitals for curable diseases. Two of the most impactful trends were the rising spate of corruption and the deaths from ethnic clashes. It had become apparent that ethnic groups found it difficult to live together in the country. Each group was constantly watching out for its own interest rather than the collective interest of the country. In addition to this, corruption was widespread. Large amounts of money disappeared from government coffers. The justice system was too broken to prosecute corrupt officials successfully. Some convicted corrupt officials even found their ways back into government. Affluent families soon relocated outside the country while those already outside the country further distanced themselves from the country. Nigeria descended into political and economic anarchy. As the government and the people seek new ways to get the country back to its feet, secessionist groups strike and plunge the nation into months of conflict.

If this future will happen, the following events constitute flags to watch out for.

FLAGS | REMARKS

---|---

1. The government entertains the idea of restructuring.

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2. Government policies are ineffective despite accurate implementation

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3. Rise in ethnic clashes and ethnic disputes continue to prove irresolvable

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4. State governments are on the brink of economic collapse.

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5. Economic progress does not translate to higher standard of living.

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6. High level of corruption and abuse of immunity in government.

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7. Rise in police brutality.

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8. Rise of secessionist groups in different parts of the country.

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9. A number of politicians show support for nationalists groups from their regions.

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10. Zoning system fails and politicians clash over appointments in government.

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11. Economy dabbles between recession and low growth levels.

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12. Freedom of information and expression is preserved.

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13. Government is unable to control polarizing public opinions on government structure.

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14. Nationalist groups rise to the forefront of the country's polity.

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All four futures are plausible and the decisions of leaders of the Nigerian government and people's reactions to these decisions will determine how Nigeria's future will play out. The current government has shown several attempts to infringe on freedom of speech among the Nigerian populace. So far, government has ignored calls for restructuring as well as recommendations from national conferences that have said the same.

Most state governments are finding it difficult to thrive. Yet, the government has no plans of delegating more power to them, especially to control some of the resources in their territories. Unemployment rate is high and, due to the economic crisis, the numbers are piling. The government's approach to reducing the unemployment rate has been to employ youths and pay them meager salaries.

As we will find out, not all the flags in a scenario will play out. We might experience a cross movement across different scenarios but one thing is certain; the government will tend more towards one of these futures than others.

One thing we must not forgo while examining each of these futures is that this scenario planning process has opened us to many possibilities as well as many threats. We are quite aware of where a certain chain of events may lead. As political leaders, this can further help in making informed decisions about the future of the country. Asides the uncertainties, many of the actions we take today will have a huge effect on the future of the country. Therefore, in areas where we can exercise control, this book points out the likely results of our decisions.

As we enter into another decade of our democracy, uncertainties about Nigeria's future continue to pile. We have managed to clear out some of the fog that will prevent us from responding with a semblance of clarity to the events of the coming decade. More importantly, we have brought to the fore many of the actors that are germane to the trajectory of the country. For citizens, who are at the sore end of realities in the country, this book is a friend. If you use it diligently, you can understand, beforehand, how the future of Nigeria will play out.

Notes

CHAPTER ONE

  1. Inaugural speech by His Excellency, President Olusegun Obasanjo, following his swearing-in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on May 29, 1999, published online by Nigeria World Publications http://nigeriaworld.com/feature/speech/inaugural.html
  2. "Obasanjo reveals 'saddest day' of his life." Premium Times, February 14, 2017, http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/223539-obasanjo-reveals-saddest-day-life.html
  3. "Keep The Pressure On" For Freedom: Africa Fund Statement on the Release of Nigerian Political Prisoners, June 18, 1998, http://www.africafocus.org/docs98/nig9806a.php
  4. "9 Prisoners To Be Freed By New Ruler Of Nigeria." New York Times, June 16, 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/06/16/world/9-prisoners-to-be-freed-by-new-ruler-of-nigeria.html
  5. "Jailed Nigerian Dies Amid Envoys' Visit." New York Times, July 8, 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/07/08/world/jailed-nigerian-dies-amid-envoys-visit.html
  6. "Factbox- Fifa Suspensions Caused By Political Interference." Reuters, November 23, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/myanmar-rohingya-malaysia-soccer-backgro-idUSL4N1DO3H0
  7. "20 things to remember about Abacha." The Cable, June 8, 2016, https://www.thecable.ng/20-things-to-remember-about-gen-sani-abacha
  8. "Transition or Travesty: Nigeria's Endless Process of Return to Civilian Rule." The Human Rights Watch, 1 October 1997, http://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6a8314.html
  9. Nigeria's Great Speeches published online by Max Siollun, https://maxsiollun.wordpress.com/great-speeches-in-nigerias-history/
  10. Africa South of the Sahara 2004, Europa Publications, 2004, p 821
  11. Nigeria Human Rights Practices 1993." U.S. Department of State, January 31, 1994, http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/democracy/1993_hrp_report/93hrp_report_africa/Nigeria.html
  12. Ibid.
  13. "Why I Annulled June 12 1993 Presidential Election—Babangida." Daily Post, June 12, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/06/12/annulled-june-12-1993-presidential-election-babangida/
  14. "Why We Picked Obasanjo in 1999—Babangida." Daily Trust, March 10, 2013, https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/general/why-we-picked-obasanjo-in-1999-babangida/95940.html
  15. Final Report: Observing The 1998-99 Nigeria Elections, The Carter Center And National Democratic Institute For International Affairs, 1999, https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1152.pdf
  16. Ibid.
  17. Final Report: Observing The 1998-99 Nigeria Elections, The Carter Center And National Democratic Institute For International Affairs, 1999, https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1152.pdf
  18. "Goodluck Jonathan Wins another International Award." YNaija, March 7, 2016, https://ynaija.com/goodluck-jonathan-wins-another-international-award-read/
  19. "Nigeria becomes Africa's Biggest Economy." BBC News, 6 April 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26913497
  20. "Again, FG Turns to Original Builders of Refineries for 100% Restoration Exercise." ThisDay, June 13, 2017, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/13/again-fg-turns-to-original-builders-of-refineries-for-100-restoration-exercise/
  21. "Kachikwu: Nigeria Spends $28bn Annually to Import Petrol." ThisDay, June 20, 2017, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/20/kachikwu-nigeria-spends-28bn-annually-to-import-petrol/
  22. "Etisalat Exits Nigeria, Wants Brand Name Phased Out After Three Weeks." Channels Television, July 10, 2017, http://www.channelstv.com/2017/07/10/etisalat-exits-nigeria-wants-brand-name-phased-three-weeks/
  23. "Nigeria: Naira depreciates drastically following scrapping of currency peg in June." Focus Economics, August 18, 2016, http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/nigeria/news/exchange-rate/naira-depreciates-drastically-following-scrapping-of-currency
  24. "Full List of All 371 Tribes In Nigeria, States Where They Originate." Vanguard, May 10, 2017, Http://Www.Vanguardngr.Com/2017/05/Full-List-Of-All-371-Tribes-In-Nigeria-States-Where-They-Originate/
  25. "A Revealing Map of the World's Most and Least Ethnically Diverse Countries." By Max Fisher, Washington Post, May 16, 2013,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/16/a-revealing-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-ethnically-diverse-countries/?utm_term=.6d015ec20d90
  26. "Mali, Sudan, and Ethnic Conflict in Northern Africa." By Mathew van Dyke, April 25, 2012, http://www.matthewvandyke.com/blog/mali-sudan-ethnic-conflict-north-africa/
  27. "Wars and Casualties of the 20th and 21st Centuries." Published online by Piero Scaruffi, 2009, http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/massacre.html
  28. "The Tuareg Rebellion in Mali." Mathew van Dyke, March 28, 2012, http://www.matthewvandyke.com/blog/tuareg-rebellion-mali/
  29. "After Years of Struggle, South Sudan Becomes a New Nation." The New York Times, July 9, 2011, Http://Www.Nytimes.Com/2011/07/10/World/Africa/10sudan.Html?_R=0
  30. "Burundi: Conflict Profile." Insight on Conflict, August 2009, https://www.insightonconflict.org/conflicts/burundi/conflict-profile/
  31. "Rwanda: How the Genocide Happened." BBC News, 17 May 2011, Http://Www.Bbc.Com/News/World-Africa-13431486
  32. "The World's Worst War." New York Times, December 15, 2012, http://Www.Nytimes.Com/2012/12/16/Sunday-Review/Congos-Never-Ending-War.Html
  33. "Biafra: Thirty Years on." BBC News, 13 January, 2000, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/596712.stm
  34. "Renegotiating Nigeria—Quotable Quotes." Published online by Ayo Turton, April 27, 2011, http://saharareporters.com/2011/04/27/renegotiating-nigeria-%E2%80%93quotable-quotes
  35. Obafemi Awolowo, Path to Nigerian Freedom (London: Faber Publications 1947) p 40-48
  36. "Our Uncompleted Decolonisation." Online Nigeria, 11/04/2010, http://news2.onlinenigeria.com/index.php?news=8021
  37. Ernest E. Uwazie, Inter-ethnic and Religious Conflict Resolution in Nigeria (Lanham [u.a.]: Lexington Books 1999), p 8
  38. Final Report: Observing The 1998-99 Nigeria Elections, The Carter Center And National Democratic Institute For International Affairs, 1999, https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1152.pdf
  39. July 29, 1966 Counter-Coup: Africa's Bloodiest Coup D'état, Vanguard, July 29, 2016 http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/07/july-291966-counter-coup-africas-bloodiest-coup-detat/
  40. "The Crisis That Truncated the First Republic" published online By Otunba Julius Olusegun Adeeko, February 28, 2015, http://community.vanguardngr.com/forum/topics/the-crisis-that-truncated-the-first-republic
  41. The Barrel of a Gun: The Politics of Coups D'etat in Africa [Allen Lane The Penguin Press, London, 1970,] p317
  42. "The Federal Republic of Nigeria." Published online by Ebere Osieke, http://www.thomasfleiner.ch/files/categories/IntensivkursII/Nigeriag3.pdf
  43. "Background: What caused the 1970s oil price shock?" The Guardian, 3 March 2011, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/03/1970s-oil-price-shock
  44. "Nigeria: The Second Republic, 1979-83." By The Library of Congress Country Studies, 1991, http://workmall.com/wfb2001/nigeria/nigeria_history_the_second_republic_1979_83.html
  45. "Banking: Wheeling and Dealing." India Today, January 15, 1986,http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/jmb-scandal-asian-millionaires-abdul-shamji-and-mahmud-sipra-dubbed-principal-characters/1/348086.html
  46. Ibid.
  47. "From the Archive: Buhari's First Speech as Nigeria's Military Head of State In December 1983." Premium Times, May 28, 2015, http://www.premiumtimesng.com/features-and-interviews/183847-from-the-archive-buharis-first-speech-as-nigerias-military-head-of-state-in-december-1983.html
  48. "How Soldiers Killed 2,483 persons in Odi Massacre." National Daily Newspaper, 25 February 2013, http://old.nationaldailyng.com/news/politics/7010-how-soldiers-killed-2483-persons-in-odi-massacre
  49. "Odi Massacre: Court orders Nigerian Government to Pay N37bn Damages to Residents." Premium Times, February 20, 2013, http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/121196-odi-massacre-court-orders-nigerian-government-to-pay-n37bn-damages-to-residents.html
  50. "FG spent N243bn on Amnesty in 5yrs—Kuku." The Vanguard, February 18, 2014, http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/02/fg-spent-n243bn-amnesty-5yrs-kuku/
  51. "Niger Delta: Govt Budgets N65bn for Amnesty Programme." Sweet Crude Reports, 16 December 2016, http://sweetcrudereports.com/2016/12/16/niger-delta-govt-budgets-n65bn-for-amnesty-programme/
  52. "Nigeria almost Triples Budget for Niger Delta Militants Amnesty." Africa News, 08 May, 2017, http://www.africanews.com/2017/05/08/nigeria-almost-triples-budget-for-niger-delta-militants-amnesty//
  53. Nigeria: Global Index Rates Boko Haram Deadliest Terrorist Group, CAJ News Agency, 5 January 2017, http://allafrica.com/stories/201701050587.html
  54. "Boko Haram Ambush: 48 Killed in Oil Exploration Team." ThisDay, July 27, 2017, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/07/27/boko-haram-ambush-48-killed-in-oil-exploration-team/
  55. Director Nnamdi Kanu's Speech at 2015 World Igbo Convention in Los Angeles, published online on Youtube, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fPQOPEH-0Y
  56. "Igbo group petitions Senate over 'appointment imbalance'." The Nation, October 28, 2016, http://thenationonlineng.net/igbo-group-petitions-senate-appointment-imbalance/
  57. "Igbo drag FG to court over alleged negligence, discrimination, demand N1trillion." Daily Post, April 22, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/04/22/igbo-drag-fg-court-alleged-negligence-discrimination-demand-n1trillion/
  58. "Igbos Are The Problem. Leave The North Or Be Killed"—Arewa, 247ureports, June 7, 2017 https://247ureports.com/2017/06/07/igbos-are-the-problem-leave-the-north-or-be-killed-arewa/
  59. Nigeria: Security Forces Must Avoid Repression of Biafra Day Protests, Amnesty International, 30 May 2017, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/05/nigeria-security-forces-must-avoid-repression-of-biafra-day-protests/
  60. "Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Others Welcome IBB's Call For Restructuring of Nigeria." The Vanguard, June 27, 2017, http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/06/afenifere-ohanaeze-ndigbo-others-welcome-ibbs-call-restructuring-nigeria/
  61. "Pan-Yoruba Group Calls for Oduduwa Republic." The Vanguard, June 12, 2017, http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/06/igbo-quit-notice-cant-incite-us-fight-war-igbo-tell-arewa-youths/
  62. Africa Loses a Whooping 148 Billion and More to Corruption —AU Report, published online by Answers Africa, https://answersafrica.com/africa-loses-a-whooping-148-billion-and-more-to-corruption-au-report.html
  63. "EFCC again uncovers $38m, N23m and £27,000 in Ikoyi." The Vanguard, April 12, 2017, http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/efcc-uncovered-another-38m-n23m-27000-ikoyi/
  64. "Poverty: 112m Nigerians live below poverty line." The Vanguard, October 18, 2016, http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/10/poverty-112m-nigerians-live-poverty-line/
  65. "NBS: Another 1.5m Nigerians became unemployed in 2016." The Cable, May 21, 2016, https://www.thecable.ng/nbs-another-1-5m-nigerians-become-unemployed-2016 
  66. Nigeria - Population - Net migration rate, Knoema, 2015 https://knoema.com/atlas/Nigeria/topics/Demographics/Population/Net-migration-rate
  67. Nigeria's Struggle To Collect Non-Oil Revenue, Proshare, May 03,2017,https://www.proshareng.com/news/Nigeria%20Economy/Nigeria%E2%80%99s-Struggle-To-Collect-Non-Oil-Revenue/34712
  68. Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? BBC News, 19 January 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29643612
  69. "Nigeria's election: Hail to democracy." The Economist, April 4, 2015, https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21647596-ousting-incumbent-president-ballot-box-africas-most-populous 
  70. "Economic recession spurs massive job cuts in Nigeria." Daily Trust, Nov 19 2016, https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/general/story/172358.html

CHAPTER TWO

  1. "The Architecture of Complexity" Herbert A. Simon, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 106, No. 6. (Dec. 12, 1962), pp. 467-482. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-049X%2819621212%29106%3A6%3C467%3ATAOC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1 
  2. "Boko Haram: Behind the Rise of Nigeria's Armed Group." Al Jazeera, 22 December 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/specialseries/2016/11/boko-haram-rise-nigeria-armed-group-161101145500150.html
  3. What is Chaos Theory? Fractal Foundation, http://fractalfoundation.org/resources/what-is-chaos-theory/
  4. "What VUCA Really Means for You." Havard Business Review, January 2014, https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you
  5. "Fuel or fraud subsidy war, Nigeria loses N2trn in six days." The Vanguard, Nigeria, January 14, 2012. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/01/fuel-or-fraud-subsidy-war-nigeria-loses-n2trn-in-six-days/
  6. "What is a Complex System?" by James Ladyman, James Lambert (Department of Philosophy, University of Bristol, U.K.) and Karoline Wiesner (Department of Mathematics and Centre for Complexity Sciences, University of Bristol, U.K.), March 8, 2012, http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/9044/4/LLWultimate.pdf
  7. "Strategy under Uncertainty." By Hugh G. Courtney, Jane Kirkland, and S. Patrick Viguerie, McKinsey Quaterly, June 2000, http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty
  8. "Scenario Planning.", The Economist, Sept 1st 2008, http://www.economist.com/node/12000755
  9. de Jouvenel, B. (1967) The Art of Conjecture. New York: Basic Books de Jouvenel, H. (2004) Invitation à la Prospective An Invitation to Foresight. Futuribles, Perspectives, Special Issue 88 pages. 
  10. Bishop, P. Hines, A & Collins, T. (2007) "The Current State of Scenario Development." Foresight Vol 9, No. 1, March 2007
  11. Willmore, J. (2001) Scenario Planning: Creating Strategy for Uncertain Times Information Outlook [online] 9.1.2001
  12. "Living in the Futures." Harvard Business Review, May 2013, https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures.
  13. Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics, Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, Brookings Institution Press, 2007 p. 96
  14. New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century, The United States Commission on National Security/21st Century, September 15, 1999 http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nssg/addendum.pdf
  15. "A Key To A Successful Business Plan." Adam Hartung, Forbes, Demember 7, 2009, https://www.forbes.com/2009/12/07/scenario-planning-strategy-leadership-managing-plan.html 
  16. "22 years ago, AT&T made scarily accurate predictions about modern technology." Business Insider, November 24, 2015, http://www.businessinsider.com/att-you-will-ads-predicted-the-future-in-1993-2015-11?IR=T
  17. "AT&T Out Of Business." Daily Reckoning, https://dailyreckoning.com/att-out-of-business-2/
  18. "How IBM misjudged the PC revolution." BBC News, 4 April, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4336253.stm
  19. Clem Sunter, http://www.clemsunter.co.za/
  20. Frans Cronje: A time traveller's guide to South Africa in 2030, Biz News, June 5, 2017, http://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/06/05/frans-cronje-south-africa-2030/
  21. Frans Conje, "Frans Cronje: A time traveller's guide to South Africa in 2030", Tafelberg, 2017.
  22. "Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election: Four Possible Scenarios." Statfor, March 23, 2015, https://worldview.stratfor.com/analysis/nigerias-2015-presidential-election-four-possible-scenarios 
  23. Peter Schwartz, "The Art of the Long View, Paths to Strategic Insight For You and Your Company," Double Bay 1991. 
  24. "Living in the Futures." Harvard Business Review, May 2013, https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

CHAPTER THREE

  1. World Happiness Report 2017: Nigeria Ranked 6th In Africa, March 20, 2017, published online by NTA News, http://www.nta.ng/news/20170320-world-happiness-report-2017-nigeria/
  2. "Nigeria out of top 10 most corrupt nations—[Full list]." July 27, 2017, published online by Daily Post, http://dailypost.ng/2017/07/27/nigeria-out-of-top-10-most-corrupt-nations-full-list/
  3. Nigeria Vision 20: 2020 Abridged Version, 12 December 2010, http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/Abridged_Version_of_Nigeria%20Vision%202020.pdf
  4. List of Countries by Projected GDP, International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (April-2017), April 2017, http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php
  5. Beyond the BRICS: A Look at the Next 11, April 2007, p 161, http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/archive/archive-pdfs/brics-book/brics-chap-13.pdf
  6. List of Countries by Projected GDP, International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (April-2017), April 2017, http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php
  7. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines GDP (current US$) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=NG-IR-PH-EG
  8. 8. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines Population,https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=NG-IR-EG-PH
  9. Ibid.7.
  10. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines GDP Growth (annual %) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=NG-IR-EG-PH
  11. Family Planning 2020: Nigeria, 2012, http://www.familyplanning2020.org/entities/61
  12. "Nigeria's Poor Healthcare Access Ranking." Published by The Sun, 1st June 2017, http://sunnewsonline.com/nigerias-poor-healthcare-access-ranking/
  13. Health insurance: FG calls for scrapping of HMOs, published online by The Vanguard, June 22, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/06/health-insurance-fg-calls-scrapping-hmos/
  14. "Health Insurance in Tatters: N60billion spent on paltry 450,000 Nigerians!" Published online by The Vanguard, July 9, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/07/health-insurance-tatters-n60billion-spent-paltry-450000-nigerians/
  15. "UNICEF Nigeria- Water Sanitation and Hygiene- The Situation." UNICEF, https://www.unicef.org/nigeria/wes.html
  16. "Nigeria ranked 152 of 188 countries in Human Development Index." Published online by Premium Times, April 19, 2017, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/229062-nigeria-ranked-152-188-countries-human-development-index.html
  17. "Average life expectancy increasing slowly in Nigeria." Published online by The Vanguard, February 28, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/02/average-life-expectancy-increasing-slowly-nigeria/
  18. The WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation (JMP), https://washdata.org/data
  19. Health System in Iran-International Medical Community, 2009, http://www.med.or.jp/english/pdf/2009_01/069_073.pdf
  20. Moving Forward Towards Health For All, Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) 2016 Annual Report, 2016, https://www.philhealth.gov.ph/about_us/annual_report/ar2016.pdf
  21. "Can You Trust the Philippines Healthcare System?" Investopedia, November 10, 2015, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/111015/can-you-trust-philippines-healthcare-system.asp#ixzz4vT2tpaPb
  22. "Health Care in the Philippines: Challenges and Ways Forward." Oscar Cetrángolo, Carmelo Mesa-Lago, Garry Lazaro, Shenna Kim B., 2013, http://www.fes.org.ph/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/1._FES_Healthcare_2013_Zeta_Final_LowRes3.pdf
  23. Healthcare In Egypt, InfoDynamics Consulting, January 3, 2016, https://www.infodynamicsconsulting.com/single-post/2016/1/3/Healthcare-In-Egypt 
  24. "Why poor electricity is still a problem in Nigeria—Power Minister." Fashola, Daily Post, May 28, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/05/28/poor-electricity-still-problem-nigeria-power-minister-fashola/
  25. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines Access to Electricity (% of population) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=NG-IR-EG-PH
  26. Power Market Structure: Revisiting Policy Options, Maria Vagliasindi and John Besant-Jones, 2013, p 161, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/795791468314701057/pdf/761790PUB0EPI00LIC00pubdate03014013.pdf
  27. "Iran's Freefall Into Poverty", Radio Farda, August 6, 2017, https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-population-sliding-into-more-poverty/28661812.html
  28. Egypt protests a ticking time bomb: Analysts, New Age, Jan 27 2011,https://web.archive.org/web/20110209104208/http:/www.thenewage.co.za/8894-1007-53-Egypt_protests_a_ticking_time_bomb_Analysts
  29. Farmers, Fishermen and Children consistently posted the highest poverty incidence among basic sectors - PSA, Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), June 30, 2017, https://psa.gov.ph/poverty-press-releases
  30. 'Be ready to fight': Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte scraps truce with communist rebels, Stuff, February 3 2017, http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/89092948/Be-ready-to-fight-Philippine-leader-Rodrigo-Duterte-scraps-truce-with-communist-rebels
  31. Why There's No End In Sight To Violence By Multiple Terrorist Groups In The Philippines, Forbes, May 30, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/05/30/violent-unrest-in-the-philippines/#647195bd3605
  32. Iran hangs Sunni militant leader Abdolmalek Rigi, BBC News, 20 June 2010, http://www.bbc.com/news/10359415 
  33. al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya,Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, http://ucdp.uu.se/#actor/341

CHAPTER FOUR

  1. "Nigeria Economy Contracts in 2016 for First Time in 25 Years." By David Malingha Doya, Bloomberg, February 28, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/nigeria-economy-contracts-in-2016-for-first-time-in-25-years
  2. "3.67 million Nigerians lost their jobs in one year—FG report." The Punch, March 5, 2017 http://punchng.com/3-67-million-nigerians-lost-their-jobs-in-one-year-nbs/
  3. "Nigeria's capital inflows drop by 46.8% in 2016." Ships & Ports, February 2, 2017 http://shipsandports.com.ng/nigerias-capital-inflows-drop-by-46-8-in-2016/
  4. Nigeria- Executive Summary, Export.Gov, July 13,2016 https://www.export.gov/apex/article2?id=Nigeria-Executive-Summary
  5. "Nigerian Economic Recession and Entrepreneurial Revolution." The Vanguard, September 26, 2016 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/09/nigerian-economic-recession-entrepreneurial-revolution/
  6. What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017, TED, April 28, 2017, https://blog.ted.com/what-will-the-future-look-like-elon-musk-speaks-at-ted2017/
  7. All Our Patent Are Belong To You- Elon Musk, Tesla, June 12, 2014,https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you 
  8. Paris Agreement- Status of Ratification, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015, http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php
  9. "Nigeria records first trade deficit with UK in seven years." Published online by The Punch, June 19, 2017 http://punchng.com/nigeria-records-first-trade-deficit-with-uk-in-seven-years/
  10. "Britain to ban sale of all diesel and petrol cars and vans from 2040." The Guardian UK, 25 July, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/25/britain-to-ban-sale-of-all-diesel-and-petrol-cars-and-vans-from-2040
  11. "Doom for Nigeria, Britain Moves to Ban Petrol, Diesel Cars by 2040." This Day, July 2017, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/07/27/doom-for-nigeria-britain-moves-to-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-by-2040/
  12. Nigeria Export Destinations- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015 http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/nga/
  13. Economic Recovery Growth Plan of Nigeria 2017-2020, Federal Government of Nigeria, 2017, https://estateintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Nigeria-Economic-Refom-Plan-2.pdf
  14. Ibid.
  15. Nigeria's Top 10 Exports- World's Top Exports. http://www.worldstopexports.com/nigerias-top-10-exports/
  16. Nigeria Poverty Profile 2010, National Bureau of Statistics, 2010, https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/Nigeria%20Poverty%20Profile%202010.pdf
  17. The Paradox of Poverty in Nigeria: What an Irony, by Ojeifo S. Aidelunuoghene (Ph.D) , ISSN 2222-1697 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2847 (Online) Vol.5, No.4, 2014. http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/RJFA/article/viewFile/11329/11648
  18. 2016 Statistical Bulletin: Financial Statistics, published by the Central Bank of Nigeria, 2016, http://www.cbn.gov.ng/Out/2017/SD/eCopy%20of%202016%20Statistical%20Bulletin_Financial%20Statistics_Final.xls
  19. N/Assembly expenditure: Sanusi insists, says he's ready to quit if..., The Vanguard, December 2, 2010 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/12/nassembly-expenditure-sanusi-insists-says-hes-ready-to-quit-if/
  20. "National Assembly Overhead: When Figures Don't Lie." The Vanguard, December 4, 2010, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/12/national-assembly-overhead-when-figures-don%E2%80%99t-lie/
  21. "4.58 million Nigerians have lost their jobs under president—NBS." The Pulse, August 31, 2016, http://www.pulse.ng/news/local/buhari-4-58-million-nigerians-have-lost-their-jobs-under-president-nbs-id5440745.html
  22. The Long View: How will the global economic order change by 2050? PriceWaterhouseCooper, February 2017, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-summary-report-feb-2017.pdf
  23. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines Expenditure on education as % of total government expenditure (%)https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GB.ZS?locations=NG-IR-PH-EG
  24. World Data Atlas, Literacy - Adult (15+) literacy rate (%), 2015, https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Education/Literacy/Adult-literacy-rate
  25. Financing Education in Nigeria Opportunities for Action - Education for Development, 2015, http://cap.africa-platform.org/sites/default/files/NigeriaOsloSummitpaper.pdf
  26. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.ZS?locations=IR-NG-EG-PH
  27. Nigeria Data Portal - Nigerian Manufacturing Sector, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, 2016, http://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/ubzmjfg/nigeria-manufacturing-sector
  28. "Why Cost of Doing Business is High - CBN." The Vanguard, March 13, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/03/cost-business-high-cbn/
  29. "2016 in Review: Manufacturing Sector Groans under Recession Weight." The Vanguard, January 2, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/01/2016-review-manufacturing-sector-groans-recession-weight/
  30. "Sun International to Exit Nigeria, Earnings Crash by 58%." The Punch, August 23, 2016, http://punchng.com/shttp://punchng.com/sun-international-exit-nigeria-earnings-crash-58/
  31. "Michelin, Dunlop Tyres Dumped Nigeria because of Epileptic Power Supply—Stakeholder." Daily Post, March 31, 2016, http://dailypost.ng/2016/03/31/michelin-dunlop-tyres-dumped-nigeria-because-of-epileptic-power-supply-stakeholder/
  32. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines on Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS?locations=IR-NG-PH-EG
  33. Doing Business in Nigeria- The World Bank, http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/nigeria
  34. Ease of Doing Business in Nigeria 2008-2017 | Data- Trading Economics,https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/ease-of-doing-business
  35. Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies of the Federal Government of Nigeria for 1999, published online by International Monetary Fund, February 22, 1999, https://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/1999/022299.htm 
  36. Nigeria: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy, published online by International Monetary Fund, December 2005, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/cr05433.pdf
  37. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, GDP Growth (annual %),https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=NG
  38. Nigeria Data Portal, GDP by Country | Statistics from the World Bank, 1960-2016, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, http://nigeria.opendataforafrica.org/mhrzolg/gdp-by-country-statistics-from-the-world-bank-1960-2016?country=Nigeria
  39. Inflation Calculator, 1999 dollars in 2016, http://www.in2013dollars.com/1999-dollars-in-2016?amount=275
  40. GDP per capita, (Current $US), World Bank Data, https://www.google.com.ng/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&idim=country:NGA:GHA:KEN&hl=en&dl=en
  41. Pension Reform Act 2004, Federal Government of Nigeria, 2004,https://www.pencom.gov.ng/docs/Nigeria_PensionReformAct2004.pdf 
  42. "Promoting Privatisation, Deregulation, and Liberalisation." by Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, The Vanguard, November 14, 2012, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/11/promoting-privatisation-deregulation-and-liberalisation-by-dr-ngozi-okonjo-iweala/
  43. Ibid.
  44. Yar'Adua's Seven Point Agenda: any hope for the Nigerian people? Published online by Marxist.com, 2009, https://www.marxist.com/yaraduas-seven-point-agenda-nigeria.htm
  45. Oil and Iraq Burning at both ends, The Economist, June 24, 2014, https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21604611-war-iraq-has-lifted-oil-price-little-its-long-term-impact-will-be
  46. The abyss facing Nigeria in the face of the growing world crisis of capitalism. Published online by Marxist.com, December 18, 2008, https://www.marxist.com/abyss-facing-nigeria-world-crisis-capitalism.htm
  47. Key Economic Achievements of President Goodluck Jonathan 2010-2014, 2014 http://www.oceap.gov.ng/uploads/docs/SOUTH%20WEST.pdf
  48. According To The Federal Government, 3.67 Million Nigerians Lost Their Jobs Between 2015 And 2016. Published online by Konbini.com, February 2016, http://www.konbini.com/ng/lifestyle/according-to-the-federal-government-36-7-million-nigerians-lost-their-jobs-between-2015-and-2016/
  49. Nigeria's 2016 Budget: Highlights of Revenue and Expenditure - PwC. Published online by Proshare, June 1, 2016, https://www.proshareng.com/news/Nigeria%20Economy/Nigeria%E2%80%99s-2016-Budget--Highlights-of-Revenue-and-Expenditure-PwC/31248
  50. Adesina's World Food Prize. Published online by The Sun, 29th June 2017, http://sunnewsonline.com/adesinas-world-food-prize/
  51. Nigeria's ICT contribution to GDP nears 11%. Published online by The Guardian Nigeria, September 30, 2015, https://guardian.ng/technology/nigerias-ict-contribution-to-gdp-nears-11/
  52. Andela Raises $24 Million From Mark Zuckerberg And Priscilla Chan's Fund To Train African Engineers. Published online by Forbes, June 16, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2016/06/16/andela-raises-24-million-from-zuckerberg-chan-initiative-and-gv/#ddfa60411e0a
  53. Here's how big California's economy really is. Published online by SiliconValley.com, February 10, 2017, http://www.siliconvalley.com/2017/02/10/heres-how-big-californias-economy-really-is/
  54. "The Nigerian Banking Industry: what went wrong and the way forward." By Sanusi Lamido Sanusi Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria. Published online by Proshare.com, February 26, 2010.https://www.proshareng.com/admin/upload/reports/the%20nigerian%20banking%20industry%20what%20went%20wrong%20and%20the%20way%20forward_final_260210.pdf
  55. Global ranking on corruption and justice aims to promote good governance, a survey by World Justice Project (WJP). Published online by The Guardian U.K., June 2, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/datablog/2015/jun/02/global-ranking-corruption-world-justice-project-aims-promote-good-governance 
  56. Banks non-performing loans hit 14% in 2016—CBN. Published online by Daily Times, April 5, 2017, https://dailytimes.ng/news/banks-non-performing-loans-hit-14-2016-cbn/
  57. Banks' Non-Performing Loans Hit N2tn—CBN. Published online by Investorsking.com, April 6, 2017, http://investorsking.com/banks-non-performing-loans-hit-n2tn-cbn/
  58. Adeosun: Only 20% of 69.9m Economically Active Nigerians Pay Tax. Published online by ThisDay, June 18, 2017, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/18/adeosun-only-20-of-69-9m-economically-active-nigerians-pay-tax/
  59. Reforming the Nigerian Tax System. By Mutiu Yekeen. Published online by Economic Confidential, February 12, 2017, https://economicconfidential.com/features/reforming-nigerian-tax-system/
  60. FIRS introduces 6 online tax solutions. Published online by The Vanguard, June 5, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/06/firs-introduces-6-online-tax-solutions/
  61. Tax Revenue Statistics 2000-2015. Published by Federal Inland Revenue Services, http://www.firs.gov.ng/Tax-Management/Pages/Tax-Revenue-Statistics.aspx
  62. Nigeria's tax revenue rises to N28.14trn in 10 years—FIRS. Published online by Daily Trust, October 16, 2015, https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/business/nigeria-s-tax-revenue-rises-to-n28-14trn-in-10-years-firs/115288.html
  63. 2016 Viability Index: Lagos Generates More IGR than 30 States Combined. A report by Economic Confidential, May 29, 2017, https://economicconfidential.com/financial/facts-a-figures/asvi-lagos-igr-30-states/
  64. FG has provided N1.75tn extra-statutory "bailout" fund to states—BudgIT. Published online by The Vanguard, April 26, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/fg-provided-n1-75tn-extra-statutory-bailout-fund-states-budgit/
  65. IMF World Economic Outlook - IDB Aggregates - 2017 http://data.isdb.org/boqmnyg/imf-world-economic-outlook-idb-aggregates-2017?tsId=1043670
  66. Corruptions Perception Index 2016, Transparency International, 2016 https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2016#table
  67. Nigeria out of top 10 most corrupt nations—[Full list]. Published online by Daily Post, July 27, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/07/27/nigeria-out-of-top-10-most-corrupt-nations-full-list/
  68. Corruption deprives Nigeria $500bn revenue—PwC. The Vanguard, February 08, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/02/corruption-deprives-nigeria-500bn-revenue-pwc
  69. Nigerian Govt recovers $151 million, N8 billion looted funds through whistleblowers—Minister. Published online by Premium Times, February 12, 2017, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/223254-nigerian-govt-recovers-151-million-n8-billion-looted-funds-whistleblowers-minister.html
  70. How EFCC Recovered $9.8million From Ex-NNPC GMD Andrew Yakubu. Published by Sahara Reporters, February 10, 2017, http://saharareporters.com/2017/02/10/how-efcc-recovered-98million-ex-nnpc-gmd-andrew-yakubu

CHAPTER FIVE

  1. African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, adopted June 27, 1981, OAU Doc. CAB/LEG/67/3 rev. 5, 21 I.L.M. 58 (1982), entered into force Oct. 21, 1986: http://www.volint.it/scuolevis/dirittiumani/african_chart.htm
  2. Biafra: Thirty years on, BBC News, 13 January 2000, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/596712.stm
  3. Pro-Biafra groups forge common force, make Nnamdi Kanu overall leader, The Vanguard, June 28, 2017 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/06/pro-biafra-groups-forge-common-force-make-nnamdi-kanu-overall-leader/
  4. Nigeria: 'Bullets Were Raining Everywhere' Deadly Repression of Pro-Biafra Activists, Amnesty International, 2016, https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/AFR4452112016ENGLISH.PDF
  5. 50 years on: Nigeria's Biafra secessionist movement, Al Jazeera, May 30, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/05/50-years-nigeria-biafra-secessionist-movement-170529151102396.html
  6. Official Website of Oodua People's Congress, http://www.ooduapeoplescongress.org/index.php?start=1
  7. Yoruba Militants Turn To Violence By Glenn McKenzie, AP, 30 March 1999, http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/34a/075.html
  8. The O'odua People's Congress (OPC): Fighting Violence with Violence, Human Rights Watch, February 28, 2003, https://www.hrw.org/report/2003/02/28/oodua-peoples-congress-opc/fighting-violence-violence
  9. Ethnic Conflicts in Nigeria by Alhaji Abdullahi Adamu, Sarkin Yakin Keffi, Executive Governor of Nasarawa State, 27 January 2002, http://www.abdullahiadamu.net/speeches/2ethnic.htm
  10. A Deadly Cycle: Ethno-Religious Conflict in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria, Jana Krause, Geneva Declaration Secretariat, June 2011, http://www.genevadeclaration.org/fileadmin/docs/regional-publications/GD-ES-deadly-cycle-Jos.pdf
  11. The Warri Crisis: Fuelling Violence- Violence in 2003, Human Rights Watch, 2003, https://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/nigeria1103/3.htm#_Toc56571908
  12. Fulani Herdsmen Have Crossed The Line, Tiv Group Says. Published online by Sahara Reporters, March 21, 2017, http://saharareporters.com/2017/03/21/fulani-herdsmen-have-crossed-line-tiv-group-says
  13. Yoruba, Igbo, N'Delta, Middle Belt leaders unite against Fulani herdsmen. Published online by Punch, July 16, 2017, http://punchng.com/yoruba-igbo-ndelta-middle-belt-leaders-unite-against-fulani-herdsmen/
  14. National Conference 2014, Final Draft of Conference Report, 2014 https://media.premiumtimesng.com/national-conference/wp-content/uploads/National-Conference-2014-Report-August-2014-Table-of-Contents-Chapters-1-7.pdf
  15. Jonathan's Speech At The Inauguration of National Conference. Published online by The Vanguard, March 17, 2014 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/president-jonathans-remarks-inauguration-national-conference/
  16. World Bank 2017 Data on Nigeria, Iran, Egypt and Philippines Expenditure on education as % of total government expenditure (%)https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.XPD.TOTL.GB.ZS?locations=NG-IR-PH-EG
  17. Human Development Report 2016 Human Development for Everyone, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2016 http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/es/NGA.pdf
  18. UNDP ranks Nigeria 152nd in Human Development Index 2016. Published online by Business Day, April 18, 2017, https://www.businessdayonline.com/undp-ranks-nigeria-152nd-human-development-index-2016/
  19. Nigeria's housing deficit is 17 million units—Adeosun. Published online by Nigerian Tribune, April 23, 2017, http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/nigerias-housing-deficit-17-million-units-adeosun/
  20. Nigeria: Financial System Strategy 2020, Housing Finance, Mark Boleat and Simon Walley, March 2008, https://www.boleat.com/materials/nigerian_financial_system_strategy_2020.pdf
  21. National Housing Fund Contributions Hit N192bn. Published online by Nigerian Real Estate Hub, May 3, 2016, http://nigeriarealestatehub.com/national-housing-fund-contributions-hit-n192bn.html/
  22. CBN Unveils Banks With Lowest, Highest Lending Rates. Published online by ThisDay, October 20, 2016, https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2016/10/20/cbn-unveils-banks-with-lowest-highest-lending-rates/
  23. Vision 20:2020 and the Challenges of Housing: Construction and Development in Nigeria, Emeka Eleh. Published online by Ubosi Eleh Estate Surveyors and Valuers, January 10, 2017,. https://ubosieleh.com/vision-202020-challenges-housing-construction-development-nigeria-emeka-d-eleh-msc-fnivs-mrics/
  24. Expunge Land Use Act From Constitution Now, Experts tell NASS. Published online by The Vanguard, August 2013, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/08/expunge-land-use-act-from-constitution-now-experts-tell-nass/
  25. Health Insurance in Nigeria by Dr. Lawumi Adekola, February 19, 2015, https://www.medicalworldnigeria.com/2015/02/health-insurance-in-nigeria-by-dr-lawumi-adekola#.WeyBCltSzIX
  26. Every year, Nigerians 'spend $1bn' on Medical Treatment Abroad. Published online by The Cable, April 14, 2017. https://www.thecable.ng/every-year-nigerians-spend-1bn-medical-treatment-abroad
  27. 1000 Nigerians killed recklessly by Police in 10 years—Investigation. By Owolola Adebola. Published online by The Point, January 6, 2017, http://www.thepointng.com/1000-nigerians-killed-recklessly-by-police-in-10-years-investigation/
  28. How Nigeria Police torture detainees, rob them—Amnesty International. Published online by Premium Times, September 21,2016,https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/210951-nigeria-police-torture-detainees-rob-amnesty-international.html
  29. 2016 Viability Index: Lagos Generates More IGR than 30 States Combined. A report by Economic Confidential, May 29, 2017, https://economicconfidential.com/financial/facts-a-figures/asvi-lagos-igr-30-states/

CHAPTER SIX

  1. African Elections Database, Elections in Nigeria, http://africanelections.tripod.com/ng.html 
  2. 2015 election cost N1 trillion—INEC, The Vanguard, February 1, 2016, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/02/2015-election-cost-n1-trillion-inec/
  3. Powell, G. B. (1986). American voter turnout in comparative perspective. American Political Science Review 80(1), 17-43.
  4. Wattenburg, M. P. (2002). Where have all the votes gone (Cambridge, M.A thesis). Harvard University Press.
  5. INEC registers 68.83 Million Voters—Jega, PM News, January 14, 2015, https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/01/14/inec-registers-68-83-million-voters-jega/
  6. SURVEY: 18 years after, Nigerians assess gains of democracy. Published online by The Vanguard, May 29, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/05/survey-18-years-nigerians-assess-gains-democracy/
  7. 2015 election cost N1 trillion—INEC. Published online by The Vanguard, February 1, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/02/2015-election-cost-n1-trillion-inec/
  8. Nigeria Political Parties Most Corrupt In The World—Transparency International. Published online by PM News, February 13, 2015, https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/02/13/nigeria-political-parties-most-corrupt-in-the-world-transparency-international/
  9. The 'politricks' of Nigeria's 2015 election. Published online by The Cable, January 22, 2015, https://www.thecable.ng/politricks-nigerias-2015-election 
  10. Nigeria restores fuel subsidy to quell nationwide protests. Published online by The Guardian U.K, January 16, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/16/nigeria-restores-fuel-subsidy-protests
  11. Official Website of the Not Too Young To Run Campaign http://www.nottooyoungtorun.org/about/
  12. Nigerian Senate passes 'Not Too Young To Run' bill. Published online by Daily Post, July 26, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/07/26/nigerian-senate-passes-not-young-run-bill/
  13. There Are 16 Million Nigerians On Facebook. Published online by Tech Cabal, February 5, 2016, http://techcabal.com/2016/02/05/there-are-16-million-nigerians-on-facebook/
  14. Did the #bringbackourgirls campaign make a difference in Nigeria? Published online by The Guardian, April 14, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/14/nigeria-bringbackourgirls-campaign-one-year-on 
  15. 15. Senate withdraws anti-social media Bill. Published online by The Vanguard, May 17, 2016, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/05/senate-withdraws-frivolous-petitions-bill/
  16. Buhari appoints Tolu Ogunlesi as Special Assistant on New Media. Published online by The Vanguard, February 18, 2016, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/02/buhari-appoints-tolu-ogunlesi-as-special-assistant-on-digitalnew-media/
  17. African Union suspends Burkina Faso after military coup. Published online by Al Jazeerah, September 19, 2015, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/09/african-union-suspends-burkina-faso-military-coup-150919073352770.html
  18. Silent Guns: Examining the Two-Year Absence of Coups in Africa By Rebecca Schiel and Jonathan Powell, 25 September 2017, https://isnblog.ethz.ch/security/62494
  19. Burkina Faso coup and violent protests, 22 September 2015, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/inpictures/2015/09/burkina-faso-coup-violent-protests-150922071204063.html
  20. Guinea aide admits shooting Moussa Dadis Camara. Published online by The Guardian U.K., 16 December, 2009, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/dec/16/guinea-aide-shoot-camara 
  21. Mali coup leader arrested on kidnapping charges. Published online by The Guardian UK, 27 November 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/27/mali-coup-leader-arrested-sanogo
  22. Economic Brief: Political Fragility in Africa: Are Military Coup Détat A Never Ending Phenomenon, Habiba Ben Barka & Mthuli Ncube. Published online by the African Development Bank (AfDB), September 2012, https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Economic%20Brief%20-%20Political%20Fragility%20in%20Africa%20Are%20Military%20Coups%20d%E2%80%99Etat%20a%20Never%20Ending%20Phenomenon.pdf
  23. New Angolan President Joao Lorenco Sworn In. Published online by Eyewitness News, September 2017, http://ewn.co.za/2017/09/26/new-angolan-president-joao-lourenco-sworn-in
  24. JUNE 12: My meetings with Annan, Anyaoku. Published online by The Vanguard, June 15, 2013, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/06/june-12-my-meetings-with-annan-anyaoku/
  25. Rwanda one of the fastest growing economies—Expert. The New Times, April 2011, http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/read/18961/
  26. How Obasanjo's third term agenda failed—Mantu. Published online by Naij.com, 2016, https://www.naij.com/762054-revealed-obasanjos-third-term-agenda-failed.html#762054
  27. Nigeria: Controversy Over Jonathan's Single-Term Concept. Published online by African Online Magazine, October 17, 2011,http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/uncategorised/controversy-over-jonathans-single-term-concept/
  28. Summary of Results, 2015 Presidential Election, Independent National Electoral Commission, March 28, 2015, http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/summary-of-results.pdf
  29. African Elections Database, Elections in Nigeria, http://africanelections.tripod.com/ng.html 
  30. 30. Ibid.
  31. Ibid.
  32. Crisis: Makarfi faction seeks registration of 'Advanced PDP'. Published online by Daily Trust, March 2, 2017, https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/politics/crisis-makarfi-faction-seeks-registration-of-advanced-pdp/187541.html
  33. How leadership crisis has become a major feature in PDP. Published online by Naij.com, 2016, https://www.naij.com/856300-leadership-crises-major-feature-pdps-history.html#856300
  34. Emmanuel Onwubiko: APC brings order from chaos. Daily Post, August 1, 2017, http://dailypost.ng/2017/08/01/emmanuel-onwubiko-apc-brings-order-chaos/
  35. The Principle Of Zoning And Its Consequences On Political Development In Nigeria. Katsina-Ala Multidisciplinary Journal (A TETFund—supported publication), July 24, 2014, http://kamjournal.org/2014/07/24/the-principle-of-zoning-and-its-consequences-on-political-development-in-nigeria/

CHAPTER SEVEN

1. Robert Mugabe: Is Zimbabwe's ex-president a hero or villain? Published online by BBC News, 21 November 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-23431534

CHAPTER EIGHT

  1. Harnessing Gains of 2017 Global Terrorism Index. Published online by The Cable Newspapers, November 20, 2017. https://www.thecable.ng/harnessing-gains-2017-global-terrorism-index
  2. 370,000 policemen to 170 million Nigerians grossly insufficient—Lawmaker. Published online by Daily Post, August 11, 2015, http://dailypost.ng/2015/08/11/370000-policemen-to-170-million-nigerians-grossly-insufficient-lawmaker/
  3. Nigeria moves up 24 points on World Bank Ease of Doing Business. Published online by The Vanguard Newspapers. October 31, 2017. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/10/nigeria-moves-24-points-world-bank-ease-business/

CHAPTER NINE

  1. FG moves to complete N40bn central rail line. Published online by The Vanguard Nigeria, August 15, 2017, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/08/fg-moves-complete-n40bn-central-rail-line/
  2. The Crisis in Western Nigeria- May 1962- Published online by Dawodu.com, https://dawodu.com/balewa2.htm

CHAPTER TEN

  1. Whistle Blowing Policy, Guidance & FAQ - Federal Government of Nigeria (FMF). Published online by Proshare, February 13, 2017, https://www.proshareng.com/news/Frauds%20&%20Scandals/Whistle-Blowing-Policy--Guidance---FAQ---Federal-Government-of-Nigeria--FMF-/33720

CHAPTER ELEVEN

  1. Victor I. Lukpata, (Ph.D.). "Revenue Allocation Formulae in Nigeria: A Continuous Search." International Journal of Public Administration and Management Research (IJPAMR), Volume 2, Number 1, October 2013

Acknowledgements

So many people made this book project possible. It is impossible to list everyone, I say a big thank you to the following people, Adeleke Okediran, Samuel Oyoto, Wale Calfos, Ibrahim Sanusi, Japheth Omojuwa, Tunde Fagbenle and Bolaji Oyekanmi who all helped with insights and recommendations. Habeeb Kolade's research expertise and Korede Ologun's insights came in very handy without which this project will never have been possible. Frans Cronje for leading me through his scenario planning process and access to his PhD thesis which provided a theoretical background for this work. Yetunde Anifowoshe my editor for doing a great job, and to my dad, Adetokunbo Okediran—for everything.

Index

A

Abacha, Sani 1-2, 16, 58

-briefs on 2-3

Abiola, Kudirat 3

Abiola, Moshood.K.O, 2-4, 6-7,

94, 117

Aboyade Commission, 1978

199

Abubakar, Abdulsalami 2, 4,

6-7

Abubakar, Atiku 121

Abuse of human rights, 93

Access to power supply, 47

Accord Party, 120

Accountability process, 206

Action

-Alliance, 120

-Congress of Nigeria (ACN)

118-121

-Group, 13

Adedibu, Lamidi 120

Adeosun, Kemi 20, 82

Adesina, Akinwunmi 76

Adult literacy rate, 62

Advance fee fraud, 42

Advanced People Democratic

Party (APDP), 120

Africa's Progress against

Authoritarianism, 116-118

African

-Charter on Human and

Peoples' Rights, 91

-Development Bank, 116

-ethnic groups, 11

-Union, 116, 194

Agricultural

-boards, 189

-programme, 76,188

-Development Projects (ADP),

76

-productivity, 156

-reforms, 77

Agriculture, 76,158, 173, 195

Aguiyi-Ironsi, 13, 99

AIT, 114

Ajaokuta Steel Company

Limited, 189

Ajimobi, Abiola 119

Akintola, Samuel Ladoke, 13-

14, 166

Al-Gama'a at- Islamiyya, 49

All

-Nigerian's People's Party, 120

-People's Party (APP), 7-8, 118

-Progressives Grand Alliance

(APGA), 120

Alliance for

-Democracy (AD), 7-8, 118

-Progressive Change (APC),

118-119

Allocation of resources, 97

Almajiri school program, 151

Alternative Futures, 27

Amaechi, Rotimi 33

Amalgamation, 201

-of the country, 107

American

-Federal Structure, 109

-Presidential system, 15

Amnesty

-International, 93,106,145

-program in the South-South,

73

-programme, 17

-reports, 19

ANC, 32

Anikulapo Kuti, Fela 39-40

Annulment of 1993 Presidential

election, 7, 94

Anti-corruption

-agencies,41-42,88, 115, 123,

133, 150, 160, 180, 187, 195,

210

-campaigns, 42

Anti-Poverty Scheme, 69

Anti-social media bill

-withdrawal of, 114

Anyanwu, Christine 2

Apex bank, 53, 66

Arab Spring, 48, 49, 107

Arewa

-Consultative Forum , 95

-People's Congress (APC) , 20-

21,95, 113, 121, 127

AT & T 30-31

Autocratic governments in

African, 116, 126

Awolowo, Obafemi 11,13-14,

166

Azikiwe, Nnamdi 11, 13

B

Babangida, Ibrahim 4, 6

Bailout funds, 84

Balewa, Tafawa 12-13

Balkanization, 125, 136

-of Nigeria, 91,194

-or confederacy, 107

Bane of Corruption, 87-89

Bank Verification Number

(BVN), 19

Banking

-crisis, 2009 81, 192

-sector, 79-80, 82

-system, 73, 81,88,131

Bello, Ahmadu 13

Berger, Gaston 28

Bertrand de Jouvenel 28

Better Life Programme (BLP) for

rural women, 76

Biafra

-National Guard (BNG), 198-

199

-states, 92

-movement, 18

-War, 94

Black economy, 83

Boko Haram, 18,33, 50,96,114

-insurgency, 25, 94, 96, 135,

143

-kidnapped 276 girls from

Chibok, 114

Bomb attacks,49

Bond yields, 86

Breadley, David 31

BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and

China, 43

#BringBack

-Goodluck 2015#, 114

-Our Girls#, 114

British parliamentary style, 109

Broken China, 205, 212

BudgIT, 147

Buffet, 205, 208-210

Buhari , Mohammadu 8, 15,

25, 33,84, 109, 110, 113, 112-

113, 118-119, 121,123

-administration, 19

-inauguration speech as

Military Head of State, 15-16

Bureau of Public Enterprises

(BPE), 71

Burundian Civil War, 11

Butterfly Effect, 25,204

C

Cable TV, 114

Camara, Dadis 116

Campaign for Democracy (CD),

4

Capital

-expenditure, 65, 69

-Gains Tax (CGT), 82

-reforms, 69

CBN, 53, 66, 79-81,155, 163

Certificate of Occupancy, 104

Chaos Theory, 25, 204

Chase, Salmon Portland (former

Chief Justice of the United

States), 12

Child

-marriage and abuse, 114

-soldiers, 49

-Not Bride Campaign≠, 114

Civil

-and liberty groups, 164

-freedom, 136, 139

-groups, 136, 145, 183

-Organizations, 176

-rights and pro-liberty groups,

183

-rights groups, 4, 145

-societies, 136

-unrest, 136

-war,39,41,93, 100, 126, 179,

210

Clear Enough Future, 27

Climate change, 129

Coalition politics, 32

Codes of law, 168

Colony

-and Protectorate of Southern

Nigeria, 11

-of Lagos, 10

Communal

-crisis, 99

-violence, 97

Company Income Tax, 82

Complex systems, 24-26

-definition of, 24

Computer programming skills,

77

Computing market, 31

Conditional Future Contigents -

Futuribilia, 28

Confederacy, 91

Confederation of African

Football (CAF), 2

Congo Wars. 11

Congress for Progressive

Change (CPC), 118

Constitution

-Review Committee, 117

-1960, 99

-1999, 91

Constitutional

-approaches, 12

-Conference, 99

-structure, 41

Consumer

-market, 43

-spending, 180

Contributions from the Non-oil

Sector, 75

Contributory

-pension scheme, 149

-scheme, 105

Corporate

-governance, 79- 80

-planning, 29

Corruption, 10, 14-16,19-20,41

42, 45, 49, 50, 68, 71, 88,104

105, 107, 111-112, 114,123

125-126,146, 131, 133,

135-138, 146, 160, 169,

174-175, 180-181, 187-

188, 193, 196-197, 201,

210, 212

\- bane of 87, 89

\- Index 87

Cost of Governance, 60-61,130

Counter coup, 14

Coup

\- d'etats, 116

\- planners, 3

Courtney, Hugh 27

Creation of

\- more states, 101

\- states, 12

Crime rates, 174

Criminal Investigation

Department, 165

Critical uncertainties, 33, 35

Cronje, Frans 32

Crop and livestock farming in

Nigeria, 76

Cryptocurrency

\- influence of, 34

Custom duties, 171

D

Dabibi, Milton 2

Dangote, Aliko 157

Davidson, Jimmy 29

De Klerk, F.W. 32

Decentralization, 85

Democratic

-governance, 48

-government, 16,116- 117

-process, 2, 110-113

-progress, 3

-rule, 4

-system, 180

-transition, 25

Democratization of energy, 134

Depreciation of the naira, 21

Deregulation of the , 69

-mining industries, 206

-Telecommunications sector,

71

Developing economics, 43

Devolution of power to the

States, 167

Diendere, Gilbert 116

Digital

-devices, 115

-mobile licenses 72

-Technology, 31

Directorate for Food Roads and

Rural Infrastructure (DFFRI),

76

DisCos ,206

-and Gencos, 153

Disputed

-Buhari Victory, 33

-Jonathan Victory, 33

Disputes of land rights, 97

Distribution

-companies, 153

-networks charge tariffs, 153

-of income, 59

Diverse ethnicities, 92

Dokubo, Asari 96

Domestic Economic Stability

\- Fourth driving point, 138-

139

Driving forces, 137, 194

\- of future

\- categories of, 33

Drone technology, 78

Duterte, Rodrigo 49

E

Ease of Doing Business, 172

-Index, 154

Ebola epidemic, 50

Econet, 72

Economic

-and Financial Crimes

Commission (EFCC), 9,42,88

115

-Community of West African

States (ECOWAS), 116

-crisis, 73, 183, 213

-depressions, 39

-downturn , 52,54

-meltdowns, 64

-policies, 74

-recession, 4,15,23,52,73,138,

184

-Recovery Growth Plan of

Nigeria, 56

-reforms, 32,135

Education

-policies, 206

-system, 78,138

-Tax (EDT), 82

Egyptian revolution, 2011, 47

Elder statesmen, 92

Electoral

-competition, 121

-irregularities, 126

-outcomes, 111

-process,. 112

-processes, 11

-system, 169

-violence, 111

Electricity boards, 171

Electioneering processes, 110

Electronic

\- payment systems, 154

-Tax Clearance Certificate, 83

Elite schools, 63

Employee's Health Insurance,

105

Employment

\- generation, 69

\- rate, 157

Empty Dish, 205, 210-211

e-registration, 83

ERGP, 129

Erratic power supply, 21

Ethnic

\- advocacy, 162

\- analysts, 181

\- and National consciousness,

10

\- clashes in Nigeria, 97, 177

\- clashes, 125,134, 138,161

181, 212, 193, 197

\- cleansings, 198

\- conflict , 14, 37,41,97,99,107

121-122, 135, 161

\- differences, 121, 162

\- disputes, 162, 198

\- diversity, 121

\- formations, 99

-groups in Nigeria,10,12,13,24

92, 97-98,101,107,115,117,

122,137-138,147,181, 193

194,197-198,212

-hostilities, 101

-jingoism, 127

-leaders, 92,122

-lines, 100, 121

-loyalties of citizens, 107,117,

121, 127

-mergers, 11

-minorities, 6, 99,198

-problems, 15

-relations within Nigeria,

41,134, 138

-tensions, 16

-tolerance, 134, 146

-uprising, 135, 140

-violence, 107, 197

Ethnocentric political parties,

7-8

Expected years of Schooling

(knowledge), 102

Export

-base

\- widening of, 156

-diversification, 138

-promotion reform, 156

-promotion scheme, 155, 205

Ezekwesili, Oby 19

F

Facebook, 114

Fagbenle, Tunde 11

Falae, Olu 7- 8

Family

-Economic Advancement, 69

-Planning 2020 (FP 2020)

project, 44

Farm settlements, 156

Fasheun, Frederick 95-96

Federal

-Character, 97,122, 137, 147

\- principle, 12

-Government allocation, 84

-highways, 199

-Inland Revenue Services

(FIRS), 83

-Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, 103

-Road Safety Corps (FRSC),

149

-structure, 99-101, 141

-Universities, 152

Federalism, 163

Federation

-Account, 84

-Internationale de Football

Association (FIFA), 2

Fight against corruption, 9, 88

Filing tax returns online, 83

Financial

-crisis, 79, 81

-freedom, 85

-independence, 85

-institutions, 79,130, 138

-Stability Report (FSR), 81

First coup d'etat in Nigeria, 13

Fiscal

-and monetary policies, 42

-policies, 132

Flags

-if scenario is working out,

210-211

-to help the future, 206-207

-to determine if scenario is

playing out, 208-210

-to watch out for, 212-214

Food

-inflation rate, 156

-price inflations, 49

-processing plants, 156

-scarcity, 21

Forecasting, 26-28, 33, 37

Foreign

-direct investment, 77

-exchange

-rates, 53

-reserve of Nigeria, 86

-investors, 181

-Portfolio Investments, 52

-trade relations, 56

Formidable state, 141-142

Founding Fathers of Nigeria, 11

Fourth Republic, 1,3-5,10, 16

65,70,100,110,116-117, 130

139, 156

Freedom of

-expression, 113, 145, 147, 159

164, 176,205- 206, 213

-Speech, 49

Frivolous Petitions (Prohibition,

etc) Bill 2015 , 114

Fulani

-Herdsmen, 197

\- and Local tribes in Southern

Nigeria and Middle Belt, 98

-militia, 98

Full Course, 205

Future Ethnic Relations – third driving point, 138

Futuribilia, 28

G

Gasoline-powered cars, 56

Gates, Bill 31

GenCos, 206

Geo-political relations, 12

Global

-Economic

-crisis, 73

\- recession, 139

\- sixth driving point, 139

-Financial

-crisis, 72

-market, 72

-Health care Access Index,

151, 174

-recession, 79

-Terrorism Index (GTI), 2017

145

Government

-backed housing schemes, 200

-bonds, 131

-expenditure, 59

-licensed private waste

collectors, 150

-Policies, 68-75

Gowon, Yakubu 99-100

Green Revolution (GR), 76

Greenhouse

-emission, 56

-gas emission, 55

H

Health, 105

-Care Access and Quality Index

44-45

-Insurance Organization , 46

-Insurance Scheme, 150,164

169, 174

-Management Organization

(HMO), 45, 150

Healthcare, 150, 189,200

-insurance, 46

-system, 105

High

-Road Scenario, 32

-unemployment, 49

Housing , 133

-Deficits, 165

-and Obstacles to Affordable Shelter, 103-104

-development plans, 104

-fund, 149

-programmes, 191

-scheme, 103,137-138,149-

150

Hudson Foundation, 29

Human

-Development Index of Nigeria, (HDI),46-47, 102 180

-rights

\- abuse, 94,164

\- groups, 145

\- violations, 106

\- Watch, 94, 97

I

IBM, 31

ICT, 77

Ifeajuna, Emmanuel 13

Igbo

-community, 19

-groups, 92,134

-nationalist groups, 92

Ige, Bola 2

IGR ranking, 106

Ijaw

-and Itsekiri in Warri, Delta State

\- clash between, 98

-ethnic group, 96

IMF Data, 2016, 87

Import

-dependent, 75,129

-duties, 155

Income Imbalance, 57-60

Independence Day , 163

-Celebration, 2030, 143, 158

-Speech, 179

Independent

-Corrupt Practices and other

Related Offences

Commission (ICPC),9,42

-groups, 93

-National Electoral Commission

(INEC), 3, 8, 12,110-112,120

127, 169

Indigenization rights, 97

Indigenous People of Biafra

(IPOB), 18, 93, 198

Infant mortality rate, 68, 151,

174

Inflation, 195

-rate, 21,52,67, 73

Informal settlements, 103

Infrastructural development,

65-66, 68-69,78,84,131- 132,

188

Inland waterways, 165, 168,

199

Insecurity, 50,107

Interbank market, 53

Interest

-groups, 183

-rate, 66, 69,81,86,88,177,

195, 131

Inter-ethnic conflicts, 100, 197

Interim

-government, 116

-National Government of

Nigeria, 2

Internal organizations, 131

Internally generated revenue,

84- 85

International

-bodies, 116

-Committee of the Red Cross

(ICRC), 194

-Community, 2, 16, 127

-diplomacy, 163

-market, 157

-Monetary Fund (IMF),82

-Organizations, 116-117

-Relief Organizations, 194

-trades, 163

Internet

-connectivity, 137

-fraud, 42

-services, 115

Interstate trade, 171

Iraqi war 72

Islamic State

-Independent of Nigeria, 96

-of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) (also

known as ISIS), 49

-of Lanao, 49

IT – services industries, 158

J

Jama'atu Alili is – Sunnah

lid – Da'wati wal-Jihad – Boko

Haram, 17

Jammeh, Yahyah 116

Job opportunities, 63

Johnson Mathley Bankers

(JMB), 15

Joint task forces, 144, 182

Jonathan, Goodluck 8,24-26,73

76,100,104, 110,113-114,117

119, 121,122, 151

\- crisis, 97

Jose Eduardo dos Santos, 116

Judicial

-reforms, 138

-system, 180

Jundallah a.k.a People's

Resistance Movement of Iran

(PRMI), 49

Justice system, 187-188, 192,

195, 212

K

Kagame, Paul 117

Kahn, Herman 29

Kanu, Nnamdi 18,41, 92-94,

96, 146, 198

Kanu's secessionist campaign,

21

Kidnap of 276 Chibok girls, 18

Kidnapping of, 96

-276 girl from a college in

Chibok, 25

-expatriates, 17

Kokori, Frank 2

Kuku, Kingsley 17

Kupers, Roland 37

Kutigi, Idris 100

L

Labour

-market, 61-63

-Unions, 59

Lack of

-Accountability, 136

-free elections, 49

-statistical data, 83

Ladoja, Rashidi 120

Lambi, Akin 16-17

Land

-disputes, 97

-Use Act Conundrum, 104-105

-Use Act, 174

-Enforcement agencies,146,162

164, 194

Leadership, 41

Lenovo, 31

Life Expectancy, 68,102, 151,

174, 191

\- in Egypt, 46

-in Iran, 46

-in Nigeria, 46

-in the Philippines, 46

Literacy rate, 62

Local

-Government elections, 8

-Industries Quagmires, 63-68

-militia groups, 16

Lourenco, Joas 116

Low

-Human Development Country

(LHD), 102

-road Scenario, 32

-wages, 49

Lugard, Lord 10-11

Luis de Molina, 28

M

Maghreb countries, 107

Makarfi, Ahamed 120

Mandela, Nelson 32

Mantu, Ibrahim, 117

Manufacturing , 156-157

-companies

-industries, 173

-sector, 206

Marginalization of Igbos, 19, 94,

99

Mass

-education, 63

-housing, 149

Maternal and Infant mortality

rate, 191

Maute

-armed group in Southern City

of Malawi, 49

-group, 49

Media

-campaigns, 146

-on Nigeria's Polity

-influence of, 113-115

Militant

-activities in the Niger Delta,

53

-group, 95- 96

Military

-coup d'etat 92

-coup, 1966 15, 39, 163

-era, 139

-government/rule/regime,

3-4,6-7,48, 109,111, 166

Militia groups, 135

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 45

Mindanao conflict, 49

Mining

-activities, 165

-companies, 172

-industry, 85,161, 189

-licenses, 165

-sector, 157

Mismanagement of funds, 68,

160

Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders

Association of Nigeria, 99

Mohammadi, Majid 48

Money laundering, 112, 160

Mortgage loans, 104

Movement for the Emancipation

of the Niger Delta (MEND)

17,96,135

MTEL, 72

MTN, 72

Mugabe, Robert 2, 127

Muhammad, Murtala 7, 14

Multiparty system, 127-128

Multiplicity of taxes, 83

Musk, Elon 54-55

N

Narrow Road, 32

National

-Accelerated Food Production

Programme (NAFPP), 76

-Agricultural Land Development

Authority (NALDA), 76

-Assembly ,42, 167

-Bureau of Statistics, 147

-Communication Commission

(NCC), 71

-Conference 2014, 100, 117,

126,167, 213

-Council of Nigeria and

Cameroons (NCNC), 13

-debate, 167

-Development Plan, 104

-Dialogue 99-100

-Economic Empowerment and

Development Strategy

(NEEDS), 69

-Health Insurance Scheme

(NHIS), 45,105,137, 189,191,

200

-House of Assembly, 167

-Household incomes, 59

-Housing Fund (NHF), 103

-Identity Card, 111

-Income, 59

-Party of Nigeria (NPN), 122

-Political Reform Conference,

100

-Poverty Eradication

Programme (NAPEP), 69

-Republican Convention (NRC),

4

-Universities Commission

(NUC), 152

Nationalist groups, 93, 95- 96,

99, 100-101, 107

NDIC, 81

Negative migration rate, 20

Network providers, 72

Newly industrialized, 43

Next 11

\- sub-groups, 42-43

Niger-Delta, 16- 17, 53

-crisis, 73

-militancy, 94

-militants, 20, 176

-People's Volunteer Force

(NDPVF), 96, 135

Nigeria

-Customs Services, 176

-suspension from the

Commonwealth, 16

Nigeria's

-Agricultural Sector, 76-77

-Boko Haram, 50

-Ease of Doing business, 67

-Ethnic Loyalty and Diversity,

92-99

-Manufacturing Sector

\- activities of, 63-64

-Political Party System, 118-

124

-political Unity, 41

-poverty rate, 61

-restructuring, 92

Nigerian

-Army 18-19, 50,135,197-

198, 144,201

-Bureau of Statistics, 63

-business environment, 66

-capital market, 73

-Civil War, 1967 11, 14, 19,

92

-democracy, 113

-economy, 80, 87

-Electricity Supply Industry

(NESI), 153

-households, 152

-justice system, 131

-market, 66, 74

-media, 92

-National Democratic Party

(NNDP), 14

-National Petroleum

Corporation (NNPC), 19

-nationality, 93

-Oil export market, 56

-Police, 25,144, 146,164, 186

\- Force , 166, 174

Nigerian

-Banking Sector, 79, 80

-Communications Commission,

163

-Copyright Commission, 164

-Customs Administration, 163

-Deposit Insurance

Company(NDIC),80

-Export Promotion Council,

164

-Football Federation , 163

-in Diaspora, 163

-Justice system, 161

-legal system, 80

-politicians, 158

-politics, 121

-Railway

\- Corporation, 165

\- sector, 73

-Senate, 4- 5

-stock

\- Exchange, 80

\- market, 72, 79

-Telecommunications

Company (NITEL), 71,73

-Transport Infrastructure

Agency (NTIA), 149

Nigerian's

\- bond yield rates, 86

\- political

\- history, 116

\- structure, 127

Non-oil

\- competitive, 156

\- economy, 68

\- exports, 157

\- foreign revenue earnings, 76

\- revenue, 53

\- sector, 75, 77, 128-129, 138,

157

\- sources, 175

Non-performing loans, 80-82,

130, 131, 192, 195

Nomadic pastoralists, 98

Northern

\- ethnic groups, 10

\- People's Congress (NPC), 13-

14

\- Protectorate, 10

Nzeogwu, Patrick Chukwuma

Kaduna 13

O

Obama, Michelle 114

Obasanjo, Olusegun 1-4, 6,8,14

16,28,68-72, 104-105, 109,117

121-122

\- government, 96

\- regime, 1999, 100

Occupy Nigeria, 113

\- Nationwide Protests, 2012,

24

-protests, 68

Oduduwa Republic, 19

Ogonis, 6

\- chiefs, 16

Ohanaeze Ndigbo group, 19

Oil

\- boom, 15

\- Industry and the Interbank

Market, 53-54

\- market, 52, 83

\- price, 190

\- in the world market, 70, 184

\- revenue, 51, 54, 71, 75,175

184,190,195

Ojukwu, Odukmegwu 92, 121

Okah, Henry 96

Okigbo Presidential

Commission, 1980 199

Okorocha, Rochas 120

Okotie-Eboh, Festus 13

Okpara, Mike 13

Online

\- activist, 145, 182

\- solutions to facilitate tax

payment, 83

\- Tax Clearance Certificates

(TCC), 83

Onu, Ogbonnaya 7

Oodua

\- Nationalist Coalition (ONAC)

\- pan-Yoruba group, 19

\- People's Congress (OPC) 94-

96, 135

\- insurrection, 94

OPEC, 29, 139

Operation Feed the Nation (OFN), 76

Organizations, 162

Orubebe, Godswill, 109

Out-of-

-Pocket health expenditures,

46

-School Children (OOSC), 63,

102, 151, 177

Oyo State politics, 120

P

Packaging and processing

companies, 156

Parallel markets, 53-54

Paris Agreement, 2013 55-56,

129, 188

Party

\- politics, 123

\- structures, 127

Payment of

\- stamp duties, 83

\- taxes, 83

PC Market, 31

Peace and conflict resolution,

134-135

Pension

\- Act, 2003 70 -71, 104

\- scheme, 130,137, 149

\- related corruption, 71

Peoples' Democratic Party(PDP)

6-8,121, 113,118-122,127

Per capita income, 68

Personal Income Tax (PIT), 82

PES (Political, Economic and

Social) trend analysis , 204

Petroleum Profits Tax, 82

Philippines Health Insurance

Coverage, 46

Pipeline vandalization by Niger

Delta militants, 20

Police

-Brutality, 48-49,105, 187

-reforms, 146, 186

Policies of Taxation, 82-84

Political

-activities, 2,11, 14, 192

-alliance, 119

-analysts, 201,208

\- appointments, 97

\- disputes, 97

\- campaigns, 113

\- class, 42, 158-159, 181, 183

\- commentators, 110

\- connections, 67,154

\- course of Nigeria, 115

\- discord, 166

\- Economic and Social (PES)

analysis, 125

\- elites, 17, 195

\- figures, 127, 159

\- future, 109, 204

\- goals, 158

\- instability, 43

\- interruptions, 6

\- leaders, 41, 128,160,181,214

\- and statesmen, 6

\- mess, 181

\- negotiation, 32

\- office, 169

-holders, 160,163, 187

\- participation, 118

\- parties 3-4,7- 8,12,21,111-

112, 118-123, 127-128,138,

158,167, 180

\- persecutions, 3

\- position, 113

\- posts, 112

\- power, 6, 41,95,159,169

\- prisoner, 2, 7, 28,

\- rebels, 162

\- reformists, 159

\- role, 11

\- spectators, 158

\- stability, 4-5,8, 109, 122,

126, 158

\- structure, 11, 168, 199

-of the country, 117

\- tensions, 6

\- threats, 111

\- tools, 147,195

\- trend, 125

\- vanguards, 124

\- wars, 4

Population growth, 104

Poverty

\- alleviation, 69

\- level, 58- rate, 59

\- rate, 48, 60, 71,111, 125,

130,148, 158, 164,184, 190,

201

\- in the Philippines, 49

Power sector reforms, 205

Predetermined elements, 33, 35

Presidential

\- election, 1993, 4, 25

\- election, 1999, 2, 7, 118

\- election, 2015 8

Press Freedom, 2

Price

\- of oil in the World market, 51

\- Waterhouse Coopers (PwC),

87

Private

\- healthcare centers, 191

\- healthcare system, 46

\- Organizations, 147

\- sector, 74, 158, 208

\- driven economy, 74

-investments towards food

production, 77

\- Universities, 152, 164, 191,

200

Privatization, 69, 71, 75, 153

\- of

\- Electricity distribution

companies, 75

\- Electric distribution and

generation companies, 152

-the Nigerian power sector,

130, 134

Pro-Biafra

-activities, 93

\- agitators, 41,93, 96

\- group 95

\- protesters, 19

\- resistance, 93

\- supporters, 93

Production of raw materials

(mostly agriculture and mining),

156

Pro

\- liberty groups, 147

\- restructuring agitators, 201

\- restructuring reformists, 163

Public

\- campaigns, 162

\- enterprises, 75, 190

\- healthcare in Egypt, 46

\- investment, 84

\- Private Partnership,63,148-

149, 176

\- agreements, 157,173

\- protests, 126

\- schools, 63

\- Universities, 191, 200

Q

Quality Education, 62, 131, 134

\- system, 63

R

Railway

\- service, 165, 199

\- system, 149

Range of Futures, 27

Ransome-Kuti, Beko 2

Rapid Urbanization of several

rural settlements, 157

Real Estate development, 174

Rebel

\- attacks, 135

\- groups,4,49-50, 135, 138,

140,145-147,180,182-183

183,192, 194,210

Receiving of Electronic receipt

after payment of taxes, 83

Recessions, 128

Recurrent expenditure, 59, 65,

68

Referendum, 93

Regional

\- conflict, 17

\- Governments, 99,166

Regionalism, 167

Registration process, 110

Religious

\- battles, 97

\- centers, 181

\- domination, 97

Removal of Subsidy on oil, 75

Renewable Energy, 129,139,

155,188

Repressive Government, 183

Reserved grazing areas, 98

Resource

\- allocation, 102, 107

\- control, 167

\- administration, 164

Restructuring,19, 21, 41, 85,91

93,99-101, 107,117,124, 126,

132, 146, 159,167-171, 174,

181-182,186, 201, 204,213

\- and Nigeria's Unity through

National Dialogue –

addressing of, 99-102

\- of the Country, 4

Retirement

\- benefits, 71

\- security, 103

Retrenchments of workers, 10

Return

\- of/to democracy, 6,109

Revenue

\- allocation

\- formula, 175, 199

\- system, 168

\- sharing formula, 172,199

Ribadu, Nuhu 42, 122

Rigging and electoral fraud, 15

Rights of expression, 145

Rigi, Abdulmalek, 49

Rise of Renewables, 54-57

Rise of the ICT and

Telecommunications Sector,

77-82

River Basin Development

Authorities (RBDAs), 76

Roadster, 54

Rocky Road, 32

Role and stability of the State –

First driving point, 137

Rooftop Solar Systems, 55

Root and Tuber Expansion

Programme (RTEP), 76

Rotation of political power, 122

Rotational policy, 122

Royal Dutch Shell 28-30, 37

Rule of Law, 161, 183

-and Civil Freedom –fifth

driving point, 139

Ruling class, 159, 195

Rural

-Employment Promotion

Programme, 69

-urban migration, 104

Rwandan Genocide, 11

S

7–Point agenda 72-73

Sachs, Goldman 42-43

Sanctions by football

federations, 2

Sanitation services, 45

Sanogo, Moussa 116

Sanusi, Lamido Sanusi 60, 73,

79-80

Saro Wiwa, Ken 3, 16

Saunter, Clem 32

Savings ratio, 87

Scenario

\- analysis, 31, 33

\- thinking, 29

\- planning 21,28-32-35, 38,

137, 139, 203-204

\- golden rules of, 37

\- process,33-34, 214

Schwartz, Peter 29-30, 34

Secession, 92,101,124,134,159

181-182, 195, 204

\- class, 186

\- of Biafra from Nigeria, 18

Secessionist

\- agenda, 95

\- campaigns, 19

Secessionists, 125, 158, 162

\- group, 4,18-19, 138, 146,

182, 201, 212

\- agitators, 198

Second republic, 14-15, 117

Security

\- agencies, 146

\- threats, 144-145

SEMA Metra Consulting Group,

29

Shagari, Shehu 4, 14-15

Shekau, Abubakar 17

Sheriff, Ali Modu 121

Shonekan, Ernest 2

Short-term low Interest loans,

155

Silverbird TV, 114

Social

\- amenities, 189

\- Democratic Party (SDP), 4

\- Development, 140

\- Health Insurance Scheme,

105

\- Infrastructure, 69,107

\- Media, 136, 139,144-145,

147, 167, 192, 201

\- platforms,113, 181

\- service , 150, 154, 159, 173,

201

-delivery, 147

\- welfare ,180

-reforms, 69

Socioeconomic indicators, 50

South Sudanese Civil War, 11

Sovereign

\- National Conference, 100

\- states, 101

Soyinka, Wole 3

Spate of terrorism, 50

Stability of the oil market, 129

Standard

\- analytical tools, 27

\- of living (gross National

Income GNI), 102

\- of Living and Social Inequality

Foster Our Unity

\- improvement on, 102

Stanford Research Institute, 29

State

\- Agriculture boards, 173, 175

\- enterprises, 176

Government, 132-133, 137,149

151-152, 161, 163-166,168-

177, 195, 198-200, 208, 213

\- how viable are they? 84-87

\- Police Forces, 174

\- policing, 186

States Ability to Deliver on Key

Services–Second driving point,

137-138

Stock

\- market index, 80

\- prices manipulation, 80

Strike actions and protests, 183

Student

\- organizations, 183

\- welfare programes, 190

Suicide bombings, 17

Sunni Muslims, 49

Sustainable system, 158

System

\- of government, 166

\- thinking, 28

T

Tax

\- administration in Nigeria, 83

\- Identification Number (TIN),

83

\- rates, 164

\- reforms, 83

\- revenue, 83

\- systems, 83,101

Taxation, 82,132,171

\- system, 158,168

Taxes

\- raising of, 156

Tech industry, 78

Telecommunications, 77

\- companies, 115

\- Industry, 71

\- sector, 130

Terrorism, 49

Terrorist

\- attacks, 143,145

\- campaigns, 49

\- groups, 17-18, 137,143-144

197

\- organizations, 49

Tertiary education 191

\- system, 152

Threats to

\- National Peace, 147

\- Nigerian Progress, 41

Times Higher Education World

University Rankings, 2029,

152

Tiv Professional Group (TPG),

98

Tofa, Bashir 4

Toll Road, 32

Trade

\- policies, 138

\- unions, 199

Transformation Agenda 73

Transition

\- process, 7-8

\- to civilian rules, 68

Transparency International,

42,87,112

\- Corruption Index, 197

Treasury Single Account (TSA),

123

Trend analysis, 204-205

Tribal group, 94

Tribalism, 10,12,14,16,20, 92

True

\- Ambiguity, 27

\- Federalism, 167

Trump, Donald 55

Tuareg rebellion 11

Two party system, 127

U

Umeofia, Eric, 64

Uncontested

\- Buhari Victory 33

\- Jonathan Election, 33

Underemployment, 61

Unemployment, 61,88,111,125

130,133-134

\- rate, 48,52,64,137,148,156

158,164,173,180,184-185,

190,195,201,212-213

\- in the Philippines, 49

UNICEF, 45,102

Uninterrupted

-electricity supply, 134

\- power supply, 152

Union of Soviet Scoialist

Repbulics (USSR) – Soviet

Union, 29-30

Unitary government, 166, 170

United

\- Nations High Commissioner

for Refugees (UNHCR), 194

\- State Housing Market, 72

Urbanization, 148

US Army coined term 'VUCA',

26

V

Value Added Tax (VAT), 82

Vision 20:2020, 42

Vocational

\- Skill Development, 69

\- training institutes, 152

Voters turnout, 110,112,126

Voting

\- exercises, 147

\- population, 115

\- system, 118,169

VUCA –Volatility, Uncertainty,

Complexity and Ambiguity, 26

W

Wack, Pierre 23, 29

Wage structures, 63

War against corruption, 42, 87

Waste collection department,

150

Water

\- distribution networks, 152

\- transportation, 165

Weak State, 141-142

Wealth creation, 69

Welfare

\- campaign, 184

\- packages, 190

\- programmes, 133,185-186

\- schemes, 105

\- state, 190

Western education, 17

Westminster style of

parliamentary government,

15,132

WhatsApp, 113

Whistle Blower Act., 2017 88,

187

\- policy, 9, 88

\- protection policy, 9

Wide Road, 32

Wilkinson, Angela 37

Willinks Commission Reports,

1958 99

Withholding Tax (WHT), 82

World

\- Bank, 67, 70

\- Ease of Doing Business

Index 2016, 67,130-131,

164

\- supported National Fadama Development Project (NFDP), 76

\- Happiness Report, 2017 40

\- Health Organization (WHO),

45,191

\- Igbo Day, Los Angeles, 2015

18

\- Justice Project, 2015 80

\- market, 51

Y

Yakubu, Andrew 88

Yar'Adua, Shehu Musa 2-3

Yar'Adua, Umaru Musa 8, 17,

72-73,96,104,122,166

Yom Kippur War 1973 15

Yoruba ethnic group, 6

Youth

\- associations, 146

\- employment, 185

\- unemployment, 20

Yusuf, Mohammad 17, 25, 96

Z

Zoning, 121

\- system, 122, 127-128, 134,

138

Zuckerberg, Mark 77
