Craig: Welcome to our Five on 5, we’re pleased
to welcome in RCC Political Science Instructor
Michael Torguson.
Michael good to see you again, how are you
today?
Michael: very good.
How are you?
Craig: I’m doing very well thank you.
Let’s talk about last night’s Super Tuesday.
Michael: Holy cow.
Craig: A lot of action to talk about.
Is thing over?
Is it gonna be Trump and Clinton?
Michael: It’s pretty much over for the democrats.
Unless Hilary gets inedited or stumbles huge.
She’s got a 70 30 margin over Bernie Sanders.
And going into the March 15th, she’s gonna
pick up a lot more.
She’s been picking up two to one delegates
all the time.
So, it’s looking like it’s gonna be Clinton
for the democrats.
On the republican side, Trump only got 25
more delegates than Cruz so Cruz has made
up a lot of room.
Rubio finally got his first win, he’s finally
thinking that he’s gonna get momentum but
it’s gonna be a horse race between the outsider
Trump and the true conservative Cruz.
Craig: Okay and we’re recording this in
the middle of the day and there’s talk of
Carson possibly getting out.
Michael: Yeah.
Craig: We don’t know what’s going to happen.
Michael: We don’t know.
Craig: We know right now, with 5 candidates
on the GOP side.
Nobody wants to give up their chance at challenging
Trump.
Everybody wants to be the one, the old guard
Is rallying behind.
Michael: Yeah.
..
Craig: How do they figure that out?
Michael: You’ve got Rubio who’s the establishment
candidate, he’s the one that says you know
we are the republicans of your parents’
generation.
We’re the republicans that you know and
trust.
Kasich is kind of playing chicken.
He knows he’s not gonna win but he’s staying
in it to keep delegates from Trump, to keep
voters from Trump and to eventually get concessions
or possibly a position in the upcoming administration.
Carson, we don’t know.
He’s not gonna be at the debate in Detroit.
He’s been running out of money, he’s been
running last in the polls, but he is first
in a recent roll on who would you like to
see as Vice President in a republican administration?
Craig: Interesting.
Okay so and when I mentioned the old guard,
there’s been talk of a third party run.
There’s been concern from some on the GOP
side that maybe Trump isn’t a true conservative.
We’ve been hearing that a lot, especially
from the Rubios and Cruzs, people of their
ilk, if you will.
Is a third party ruin, maybe, I mean, did
they stand any chance, against any democratic
candidate, if they’re splitting the vote?
Michael: No.
No, the last third party candidate that had
a real chance was Ross Pearl in 92 and he
split the republican vote.
He brought votes away from Bush senior and
let Clinton walk in.
I can’t see that Trump would be able to
run a good 3rd party vote.
Especially since he signed the pledge saying
that I would not go 3rd party.
The only 3rd party candidate that I could
see affecting the thing, is if New York Michael
Bloomberg gets in the race and that would
drain votes away from the democrats.
Craig: Okay, interesting We’re gonna take
a quick break.
We’ll have much more in a moment.
Stay with us.
Craig: Welcome back to our Five eon 5, again
we’re talking politics with the RCC Political
Science Instructor, Michael Torguson.
So Michael, we got 2 two weeks to go, a little
less than that until we get another big number
of states voting.
Ohio and Florida being the big ones.
What happens if Trump doesn’t get either
of those?
Michael: If Trump doesn’t get either of
those, then it really turns into a horse race.
Kasich is positioning his campaign on winning
Iowa.
But if it goes to Cruz or Rubio, that puts
a wrench in the works with Florida, again
if Rubio doesn’t carry his home state, that’s
a pretty strong message.
You know your own people don’t support you
you, why should the rest of the nation support
you?
If no candidate gets to the 1237 mark of committed
delegates, then it goes to the convention.
l That hasn’t happened since the 60’s
and that’s just gonna be a GOP food fight
because they take the first vote, they say
okay delegates raise your hands.
Then the dealing starts.
The wheeling and dealing, the compromisers,
the promises start.
Kasich might come out and say, I will let
my delegates vote for you if you promise to
enact these policies for me.
Craig: Okay and obviously one consideration
in that we reported yesterday is CNN ORC poll
saying that whether it’s Sanders or Clinton,
they each, according to this poll beat Trump
by near double digits.
Like 6-10 percent or 8 percent for one of
them.
Michael: Yeah.
Craig: So it’s pretty handily but obviously
we’re a long way from November but that
has to be a consideration if it goes to the
convention.
Michael: It is a consideration.
The pre-primaries, the early primaries.
We were all having fun.
We were enjoying ourselves.
We had 17 people in the pool and now it’s
the next morning, we’re waking up, we’re
saying we gotta get serious about this because
the fun is over.
We need to get down to the serious work, not
saying that Trump, Cruz, and Rubio aren’t
serious.
It’s that the voters now say okay, there’s
really a shot that Trump might get it.
Who can best beat the democratic nominee,
which it looks like it’s gonna be Hilary
Clinton, and who is going to have the best
policies, the best stated vision for the next
4 to 8 years.
Craig: Well on thing we 100 percent know,
it’s going to be interesting.
Michael: That it will.
Craig: Good to see you.
Thanks for coming by.
Michael: Thank you.
Craig: Appreciate it.
Stay with us, we’ll be right back.
