well I think the Arab Spring was one of
the most significant events of
contemporary history did it succeed? we
don't really know I think it's a
work-in-progress it if I take a look it
varied from country to country the first
active it actually began in Western
Sahara nobody talks about that but they
should
that's a country under, its kind of like
Palestine under foreign military
occupation violation of international
law was crushed very quickly by Morocco
that's a country under, its kind of like
Palestine under foreign military
occupation violation of international
law was crushed very quickly by Morocco
but first part of the Arab Spring that
kind of enters history was shortly after
in Tunisia, Tunisia is mainly under
French influence from the external side
and the French tried to crush it
they were supporting the dictator Ben
Ali even after well after the attempt
the fact even after he's been expelled
they continue to support him
they failed, it took roots and it's
had moderate success I mean i think
these improvements and it's a positive
has positive implications for the future
the next major case was Egypt the most
important country in the region and
their what happened I think was very
dramatic and quite exciting
it's not just what caught
media attention to Tahrir Square that was
very important that was also there's a
long background of the labor movement
activism in Egypt crushed by the regime
but significant infected i have to tell
you but April sixth was named after the
participation in a major strike in the
big industrial centers and that
continued and it's had some consequences
which maybe are lasting it seems to
have given a kind of an opening for the
first time to independent unions that
have been continuation of Labor actions
lot of them crushed by force force as
intended by any means
but that I think continued, it opens to
space for discussion which I think is
probably going to have a lasting effect
on the culture in the society the
important external forces in that case
we're primarily the United States
secondarily England typically they they
followed the usual procedure there's a
standard procedure when your favorite
dictator gets into trouble
followed all the time Somoza and Mauritius do
that a long list of cases support him as
long as possible when it becomes
impossible because maybe the Army is
turned against him or the business
classes have turned against him then
issue ringing declarations about your
love for democracy send your dictator
off somewhere in this case Sharm
El Sheikh and then try to re-institute the
same system as much as you can that
happens with such regularity that its
kind of astonishing that the
intellectual and scholarly world somehow
can't see it and that's what happened in
Egypt there was go through the details
but it was finally a reaction of military
coup it's driving Egypt into some it's
worse days maybe ever and it's a
supported by the United States
it happened like they don't say we love
you but they're supporting and if you go
to other countries the major countries
from the from the Western point of view
the most important countries are the
oil-producing dictatorships there the
first efforts set reform were just
crushed violently, I mean they were in
Saudi Arabia the most important that
were some attempts to do what was being
done elsewhere you know things happening
after the Friday prayers the police
response was so overwhelming that people
are afraid to go into the streets and
Riyadh, in one country, Bahrain, it did
make some progress in the city
saudi arabia send an army and depression
mainly out of concern for
the Shi'a areas and eastern Saudi Arabia
where most of the oil happens to be they
want to make sure they keep that
repressed and the same elsewhere just
couldn't get off the ground and the
dictator oil dictatorships. Syria the
early steps were met with a vicious
response by the Assad regime which long
after elicited violent uprising by now
the country it's practically destroyed
it may not survive a huge number of the
population is just fleying and
desperation it's led to a confrontation
between the brutal Assad regime on the
one hand and the murderous Jihadi
organizations which are more or less
similar an ideology that they're
fighting turf battles Isis on the front
Ahrar (al-Sham) you know so it's just a total
disaster will happen out of all of this
I think it's very hard to predict just
as nobody could have predicted the Arab
Spring but my guess is that when the
fragments sort of fall into place will
be a revival of the forces that led to
the arab spring in the first place and
it's not the first time after all
there's been effort after effort in the
Arab and Muslim worlds to move towards
democracy and development almost always
crushed by external force case after
case
Thanks for watching
Written by Islam Mansour
