Hello investors, my name is Sagar and in this video, I will try to answer your questions
this video will be longer than usual because I want to take as many questions as I can and I will include some from Instagram
I didn´t try to value future retail and I think it´s pretty clear that Reliance simply wants to dominate and increase market share
when I made a video on Reliance, they announced their first deal with Facebook and I didn´t think it was something so important
but they kept making more deals and acquisitions and I think my conclusion was wrong
and I don´t mind admitting it
when I made that video, the share price was around 1500 Rs and now it´s around 2100 Rs but my conclusion is not based on the share price
I think it´s obvious how they are changing their strategy
even though the bulk of their profits come from oil, nobody cares about it because everyone wants to invest in Jio and retail
and as I see this happening, my conclusion was wrong
When this company was growing 30 - 40 % , it seemed bit expensive to me
but as it fell more than 60 % in March,
I made a video on Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank because HDFC Bank fell more than 40 %
and I mentioned that if you think the company can still grow 30 - 40 %, it seems cheap and it can give good returns
I never recommend anything on my channel but I do share what I´m doing
and I also mentioned that I was investing in a retail bank
in HDFC Bank , I mentioned that I told my family to invest because the price was good and I mentioned this as disclosure
but if you check the comment section of these videos, you will realise that I have several negative comments
mainly because these stocks were falling nearly 50 %
as the stock keeps falling, it seems cheap to me but people don´t think the same way
everyone was interested in pharma and chemicals only
so when they were cheap, I made a video on it and I clearly told it but at this price, there is still some risk involved
but it seemed like in March and April, people thought these companies would go bankrupt
I made a  video explaining the customer profile of Bajaj finance and their track record
but everyone thought they would go bankrupt and that´s why it was cheap
so I already have exposure in financials because they were cheap
the moratorium effect is not as bad as people thought in the beginning
these players will grow rapidly and the growth rate will be higher than before
in USA, all the transactions that took place online in the last 10 years have been surpassed in the last 4 months
and this will grow even more in future because now we know how convenient this is
and your second question : how will small retailers survive ?
I do think they need to be online and I´m betting on it
this shift is happening in India and Jiomart will help but in USA, many of them are online as they want to compete with Amazon
because if everyone is at home, you need to be online and it´s really easy to set up
you can set up your store in less than a day with shopify plus you don´t need a physical store
you just need good online presence and payment gateway
and as these companies come online, I will benefit from this because I have invested in these trends
and once they come online, they will have to advertise so I will benefit from there as well
I did share that I was using webull but I have started using Trading212
I don´t have any link and I don´t get paid to say this but they allow you to invest in USA from India
in the case of Webull ,you had to pay some fees to send and withdraw money and people weren´t comfortable with this
and in trading212 , there is no such fees
but as you are sending money internationally, you local bank will charge you a small fee but Trading212 won´t charge
and you asked if they will grow and yes they will grow because they are gaining more market share
Apple is not show growth in devices although the average revenue per device has increased
but everyone is focusing on services because there are growing at 20 - 30 %
Microsoft is in a different segment with cloud but it´s growing rapidly
and facebook and google are focusing on advertising
and in March, I mentioned that if everyone is at home, these companies will still make money just like Amazon
since March, Nasdaq has given more than 60 % returns
and my portfolio clients know that more than 30 % of my portfolio is tech and once company has already doubled
so I do like the tech sector
I don´t know much about this company but if you want, I can make a video on it
but if you would like a video on it, just comment below, I can make a video on it
and also click the like button so if  I see many likes, I will understand that people want a video on it
I don´t think you will have only one players because several players can exist in the same market
Netflix has many users in USA because the average revenue per user is higher in USA
In India, they can´t charge the same price because competitors are offering a similar product for a lower price and this isn´t good for them
Netflix is one of the biggest investors in this segment and they invest a lot in content
Amazon´s main business is e-commerce and cloud and the bulk of their cash flows are coming from cloud
so they have a profitable business and then they have content business but netflix only provides content
so their position is not the best because they also compete with Apple in USA and Apple has a lot of money to burn
Netflix doesn´t have good free cash flows because they need to keep investing
and I´m scared of these players because Amazon has a lot of money to burn and they wouldn't mind
so that´s why I personally don´t like Netflix
You can start with numbers but you shouldn´t finish with them
numbers don´t tell you the real story and you have to change your approach according to difference sectors
I use Tijorifinance to check numbers but I don´t finish there
but you also need to understand what the numbers are trying to tell you
Let´s take Divi´s as example as I just made a video on it. Also please check the comment section in my videos because I write extra points that I forget
Divi´s had more than 1000 crores in SBI mutual funds but it changed due to current situation
but for a very long time, they always had investments in SBI mutual funds
now what does that tell you ?
Indirectly, the company is telling you that they don´t know what to do with that money
they could have invested in assets or they could have acquired other companies
indirectly, they are telling you that if we invest this back into the business, the returns won´t be so good
or they don´t know how to invest in other segments
so you need to understand what numbers are trying to tell you
you can check this with balance sheet and cash flow statement because income statement is easy to understand
but you can see many signs in company´s balance sheet and cash flow statement
I teach this in my course with several examples and I explain what the company is indirectly telling you
in cash flows, sometimes they are taking huge debt and giving dividend at the same time
I share these points in my course and if you would like to know more, I will leave the link in the description
If you don´t know, you are basically looking for companies with a good track record
decent size
you are looking for 10 % compounded revenue growth
and 15 % ROCE
I do think it´s a good strategy but I would like to mention some points
they don´t talk about valuation but I like to have a general idea about valuation
I don´t use P/E for valuation because I use free cash flows and I made a playlist on this topic
but I wouldn´t pay a 200 P/E for example and they don´t talk about this in coffee can investing
and the second point is more important. You can follow different strategies and you don´t need to stick to only one
many people make money with cyclicals or when the company is going from a loss making entity to a profitable one
these companies won´t have a good track record but this doesn´t mean you can´t make money with them
so you can check different strategies and mix them if you want
as it´s a tech company, they are still reporting great numbers and many people want to advertise online as everyone is at home
it won´t make sense to use billboards because everyone is at home
and everyone wants to invest in companies that have good earnings now like pharma
so if you find a company that can do well in 2 - 3 years, you will see that it´s cheap
I have already invested in this sector so I won´t invest in Affle
Affle is in the data business but there are international players that are growing rapidly and at cheaper valuation
Why is Unilever or Dmart so expensive ? Even in March , they didn´t fall so much.
This is simply because their investors know that in future, these companies will still do well
HDFC companies like Life and AMC trade at a premium because investors know they will do well
paper stocks go in cycles because there are many factors that affect them including raw material
I made a video on JK Paper and I talk about all the external factors
I do like HDFC AMC and I mentioned this in the past as well
when we talked about Netflix, I mentioned that they have good revenue but they need to keep investing everything back into the business
but HDFC AMC has good free cash flows because the core business is good. This is not a recommendation
but they barely need to invest money back into the business because the fixed costs are very low
so let´s say they can grow their revenue by 20 % , profit will grow by 25 % as fixed costs won´t be so high
this is all the opposite of Netflix
I like tech but I also like the gaming sector . This was doing well in the past and it´s doing even better now.
but I specifically like the streaming service and I do have some exposure here
I´m sure you have seen big youtubers open their own gaming channel
where they play in front of you for hours
but they are getting a lot of views and I think it will do well in the future
I think both of them will do well as banks are a necessity, especially if want the economy to grow
so I actually see tech and banks together. In several tech segments, banks are their biggest clients
and I know this because my brother is in the tech segment and his biggest clients are banks
I´m happy you asked. In my video, at the end, I mentioned that I have invested in this company
this was an old video so it´s nothing new and I was still getting good views on it
because if I put "My portfolio" in title, it always gets more views
but in my last video I explained that I sold this stock
but even after that, many people bought this stock and I have always said that I don´t recommend anything
I just mention it as disclosure
but I started getting many emails because the stock fell a bit
so people were asking what they should do now .
I could have kept the video and answered each email but this is not possible now because subscribers are growing rapidly
as you might have seen in the comment section, I always answer your comments
but it´s getting hard now and once the video is on youtube, I can´t change anything
that´s why I deleted the video but now I get less views and it affects the channel but at least people know that I don´t own it now
Mainly you need to check the market share and you can do this on several metrics. Let me show you one example.
We are going to use Tijorifinance because they have launched a new feature
you can see sectors above and this is new
so let´s check banking and I will show you how to use this
initially ,you can see market share
and you can add any bank you want
and you can compare this with several metrics
so for example, let´s take bank advances
SBI is the leader but their market share is falling
HDFC Bank has been increasing their market share
so at least check the market share of the company
Tijorifinance helps you compare this with many metrics
so you will do well if you focus on top 2 players always
I have covered several books on my channel but the basics are Peter lynch, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett
and if you want to see books I´m reading currently
you can follow me on instagram and there is one section , books
and I share all the books I´m reading
movies are for entertainment so they won´t help you much
but there is one documentary about Warren Buffett and I think that´s in HBO
I don´t want to criticise anyone on my channel but I will answer this indirectly
Let´s imagine I ask you to guess the price of this pen. There are 2 possible answers
1. You can say it´s 10 Rs but what are the chances of you getting it right ?
If you tell a fixed price, your chances of failure are pretty high
but if it is 10 Rs , you will look like a genius but there is one more way to answer this
you can tell that the price of this pen is between 1 Rs and 1 crore Rs
you say 1 Cr Rs because the most expensive pen sells at that price and this pen can´t cost more than that
Why did I give this example ?
When you said 10 Rs, you chances of failure are very high
if you say between 1 Rs and 1 Cr Rs , you will play it safe and you can do the same in the stock market
so when I made my videos in March and April , I never said the market will go up or down
I just mentioned that I kept buying more and more so if the market goes up, I will make money
but this also means you will always have cash as you keep investing every time the market falls
and if the market calls, you have cash to buy more
you can see that I played it safe and I never said the market will go up or down because I simply didn´t know
now the market is up and I have some cash but I don´t mind it
in March, did anyone tell you exactly that the market will go up 100 % ? Nobody knew.
so if you aren´t sure 100 % then how can you invest there?
I didn´t know so I played it safe and I told you what I was doing
in my analysis videos , many people ask for targets and specific prices
if I don´t know the target price, how can I tell it to you ?
I do know that the share price of the companies I own will be higher after some years
but I never say all of them will do well so for example, Ambika is not doing well and I come and admit it
but then you see US stocks that are up by more than 100 % so it balances the portfolio
I´m telling you in advance that I will make mistakes and I think that´s why I get less views on my channel
because I don´t recommend anything but I have to be responsible as subscribers keep growing and I will just tell you what I´m doing
so I shared when I invested in banks
many people asked me this question
When I was studying medicine, they never talked about China and how API is made there
we didn´t know about the market share of a product
so if you think doctors know about pharma companies, it´s not true at all
we do learn about active ingredient and products but they don´t tell how it´s being made in China
and you asked about valuation using a screener
I use screener to check last 10 year performance
you can look free cash flows but it won´t help you with valuation because that is based on your conclusion
because when you value a company, you try to estimate their future free cash flows
let´s imagine you make pens and I decide to buy your company
let´s say you had revenue of 10 crores and before that it was 5 crores and 2 crores
so I perfectly know what happened in the past
but the next year, a competitor came and my business went to 0
so use a screener to check past performance but when you value a company , you need to understand future free cash flows
many people asked me about IDFC First bank and the reserve merger
this is just speculation and the management hasn´t confirmed anything so when it´s confirmed, I can make a video
but right now it doesn´t make sense
many people also asked that the economy is not doing well but the markets are so what is happening
many people think that if the earnings will be good then the stock will do well
Tesla was trading around 400 $ in March and now it´s at 2000 $
so does this mean their earnings increased ? That´s far from true.
In March, these stocks fell a lot, some of them fell more than 70 %
because when the economy is not doing well, nobody think of buying a car or house
that´s why real estate companies fell as well
and if the balance sheet is not good, it affects you even more and that´s why tata motors is planing to reduce debt
but as people become more positive, these stocks give amazing returns in a very short amount of time
so when people start thinking positively, these companies give great returns
and that´s what happened with this company and something similar happened with commodities
you may have realised that I didn´t mention anything about fundamental analysis
if we are talking about auto and commodities, you need to time these investments
car companies don´t give you returns for 15 years continuous
they work in cycles so they give you main returns for 4 - 5 years
many people want to buy these companies when earnings are good and then sell it later
but these stocks start doing well before and even now, they fell because people though earnings would be horrible
but as people realised it´s not so bad, they have good returns
in my portfolio, I bought auto company in March and we got 100 % returns in 2 months and we sold it
and if you would like to see the stocks in my portfolio or why I like them
or if you want many reports on several companies , you can join my portfolio service, where you will get everything
and I will leave the link in the description
and if you have reached till the end, don´t forget to click the like button
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