RAY KURTZWEIL:
Thanks for coming.
I got a good turnout,
standing room only.
I've known Jose for many
years and most notably
starting from the beginning,
which is about seven years ago,
we started organizing
Singularity University.
That was started
seven years ago.
Larry Page and Megan Smith
worked with Peter Diamandis,
and myself, and Jose to
start this university.
It's about a mile from here.
And it teaches
many of the things
that Jose will be
talking about today.
He has been on the
faculty and has helped
develop the concept
and the organization,
heads up our relationship
with Latin America.
And for that matter, I think
your sister-in-law heads up
Google Latin America, at
least the Spanish part of it.
Can you hear me?
Yup.
Jose has a Master of Science
in mechanical engineering
from MIT, Ph.D. from the
Universidad Simon Bolivar.
He's been a strategy consultant
with Booz-Allen, an adviser
to many leading corporations
in Latin America.
He's been an invited professor
at MIT and other leading
universities.
He's written more
than 10 books, which
I think is more
than I've written.
He has an opinion column
that appears regularly
in BBCC, CCN, "New York Times,"
and other media outlets.
He has filmed documentaries
with the Discovery
Channel and the History Channel.
Jose is going to share his
ideas on our exponential future.
His talk is titled "The
Future of Technology
and the Technology
of the Future."
So welcome to Jose.
[APPLAUSE]
JOSE CORDEIRO: Good
afternoon and it
is a pleasure for me to be
here to talk about the future.
I love the future
because we're going
to live the rest of our
lives in the future.
So I am in many
different organizations
around the planet,
traveling constantly.
One of the things
that I do the most
is working with The
Millennium Project, that
began as the futuristic part of
the United Nations University.
But now it's an independent NGO.
And every year, we
compile information
about the global grand
challenges of the planet.
And we publish it
in a yearly book,
which this is the latest
edition, "2013-- 2014, State
of the Future."
This is a copy for
you here in Google.
I hope you enjoy it.
This has an incredible wealth
of information about the future.
And also we just
published a book
about the future of
Latin America, that
has been recommended by four
presidents in Latin America,
from the president of
Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto,
to the former president of
Brazil, Fernando Henrique
Cardoso, and other people.
And we talk about four different
scenarios for Latin America.
One of those scenarios is the
singularity in Latin America.
So if you are
interested in that,
I also have a copy for
you here in Google,
in electronic format,
if you still use CDs,
so that you can read the
book and the four scenarios.
Number one, "Manana es hoy."
It's about the singularity
in Latin America.
I presented this at the
World Economic Forum, Davos,
for Latin America.
And then I was on a TV program
in CNN with Donald Trump.
So I'm very honored
to be talking
about the future of Latin
America and the singularity
in Latin America in the
next 20 to 30 years.
But the reason why
I'm also here is
to talk a little more about
exponential technologies.
And I have been involved
with Singularity University
since the first class.
And I just want to give you a
quick overview of the fantastic
things we believe
are going to be
happening in the next few years.
Many of you probably already
saw, a couple of years
ago, when Ray Kurtzweil is
featured in "TIME" magazine.
The whole article is about Ray.
And about the year
2045 and above
the technological singularity.
And if you look, the
beautiful subtitle
is "The Year Man
Becomes Immortal."
But for the ladies, you
will be immortal too.
OK, don't worry.
Both men and women
will become immortal.
But actually, Singularity
University is not a university.
And it is not about
the singularity.
So the name is
kind of interesting
because it really is about
a exponential technologies
to improve the
conditions of the world.
I am myself from the
developing world.
I grew up in Latin America.
So I have experienced
what poverty is
and how things can
change quickly.
So we are very happy
that among the founders
effectively is Larry Page.
But anyway, we have
many other companies
supporting Singularity
University.
The summer program basically
is structured in three parts.
The first part,
the participants--
we don't call them
the students--
the participants learn
about the technologies.
In the second part, we have
convergence and site visits.
And then the participants
begin working on film projects,
about how to use these
new technologies,
exponential technologies, to
improve the human condition.
How to improve health, energy,
security, water, environment,
all the problems of humanity
in the next few years.
In fact, the goal is that the
students, or participants,
have to finish with a project
to impact the world positively
in 10 years, at least
for 1 billion people.
So it is a big challenge, 1
billion people in 10 years.
Some of the start-ups
that have originated out
of Singularity University
are incredible companies
like-- actually, I just
want to name Made in Space,
because tomorrow history will be
written, and not just on Earth,
in space.
Made in Space is taking
3D printers tomorrow
to the International
Space Station.
This is the first
time humans will
print something outside
of our tiny planet.
This is the beginning
of colonization
of the world, the
universe, and beyond.
And it is done by Singularity
University students.
So we are really, really proud.
But we have many other
incredible companies,
Matternet.
Matternet right now
is working in Bhutan.
In Bhutan, using drones to
transport food and medicines
in a country that has almost
no roads or no infrastructure.
Or other companies,
like Modern Meadow,
that is working on
a cultured meat.
Some people like to
call it in vitro meat.
But we prefer cultured meat.
So what is a singularity?
Because I haven't told you
yet what is a singularity?
Well, the father
of the singularity
is right here, Ray Kurzweil.
And his famous book, "The
Singularity is Near,"
is recommended by Bill Gates
as the best book in the world.
Actually, I don't think
that that is right,
because the best book
in the world is--
[LAUGHTER]
"The State of the
Future," that we
published with The
Millennium Project.
But Bill Gates
hasn't read this yet.
Nonetheless, why
is "The Singularity
is Near" so important?
Because Ray wrote,
about 10 years ago,
about these incredible changes.
And forget about Moore's law.
Moore's law is only
one little part
of what Ray calls the law of
accelerating returns, which
was beyond, before,
and after Moore's law.
So we are living in
incredible times.
If these trends continues,
in the next 20 to 30 years
we will have computers that
have many more transistors
that our brains have neurons.
And I will talk a little
bit about that later.
You probably remember
these old technologies,
for some of you who
are old enough-- Ray.
The punch cards,
the IBM punch cards,
these were used
40 two years ago.
OK, this was 1 k memory, 1 k.
This is 10 times
100, 1,000, 1 k.
But these memories,
once you wrote on them,
you couldn't erase.
So electromagnetic
magnetic were invented.
This is 8 inches
and it is also 1 k.
But this 1 k is
better than this 1 k
because this you could erase.
You could change.
In Spanish, we say 1 k and 1 k.
How much is 1 k plus 1 k?
It is 1 kk, 1 kk.
40 years ago, we
had 1 kk of memory.
And then, obviously,
we moved to this.
Some of you might
remember this, 512 kks.
Then we moved to this, 1.4 mega.
And I just came
back from Asia and I
bought this beautiful thing.
This has 128 gigabytes, $20--
128 gigabytes, $20 in China.
So imagine what has
happened for 10 years?
We went from kk
to 128 gigabytes.
What do you think is going to
happen in the next 30 years?
You are going to remember
me, here, 30 years.
And you will remember kk.
But this will be kk.
We are going to
have devices that
have more transistors that we
have neurons in our brains,
in the next few years.
But anyway, I just wanted
to remind you of the history
that we have gone through.
This is happening
in all technologies,
including biotechnology.
At Singularity University,
the participants
in the summer programs get
their genome sequenced.
There are maybe
devices like this.
This is a gene chip
to sequence a genome.
And it allows you
to know what you
are made of, what
diseases you will have.
For example, what
is the probability
that I will psoriasis,
diabetes, prostate cancer,
and many other things I don't
want to show-- Alzheimer's,
Parkinson, and so on?
One of my personal traits-- the
color of my eyes-- all of this
is written in our genes.
So soon-- I guess many of
you have already done this
because this has existed for
about almost 10 years, some
of these technologies.
But soon, all of
us will have this.
And we'll understand
this because we don't yet
understand the genome.
And soon you will know what
is the color of your eyes,
if you didn't know it.
And what you will die of--
so that you do not die of it.
OK.
Because the beautiful is
that medicine will change.
Medicine now is about art.
And soon it will
be a good science.
Another thing you
will discover, if you
have done the 23andMe or other
similar mechanism like this,
is, for example, where
do you come from?
Where did your
ancestors come from?
And this is my parents,
my father 500 years ago.
You can see he comes from
Spain, all the way to Asia,
to Mongolia.
And you will see famous
people related to my father,
like Genghis Khan.
[LAUGHTER]
Now, I will show you my maternal
line, also 500 years ago.
And so she comes also from
Spain, all the way to Siberia.
And famous people related to
my mother, Marie Antoinette.
So I come from a very
aristocratic family,
between Genghis Khan
and Marie Antoinette.
With this, you will be able to
construct your geological tree.
And you would know
for the first time
if your father is
really your father.
But more interesting
than looking
backwards is looking forwards.
And in the future, we
will design our children.
This is an experiment
that I did with one
of my students, Sharon James.
This is a theoretical
experiment, OK,
to find out how our
children could be.
What is the probability
for different conditions,
different traits,
different diseases?
And then pick those that you
want or that you do not want.
Obviously, this was incredibly
expensive at the beginning.
The first genome began
to be sequenced in 1990.
The Human Genome
Project began in 1990
and it finished in 2003.
It took 13 years.
And it cost the US
government $1 billion,
plus $2 other billion from other
governments, Europe, Japan,
and so on.
$3 billion, 13
years, one genome.
Today, you can sequence
the full genome
for slightly over $1,000 today.
And if you do the partial
sequence, like 23andMe,
it is $99.
We expect that by 2025, at
the latest, it will cost $10.
And it will take only
one minute to do.
If you remember
this, remember kk?
Well, what is happening
in biotechnology
is more incredible, from $1
billion to $10; from 13 years,
to one minute.
This is incredible.
And this is happening
in all technologies.
Also, even in economics.
If we look at how
development is changing,
countries are growing
faster and faster.
The first nation that
doubled its income per capita
was the United Kingdom, during
the Industrial Revolution.
And it took the UK
between 1780 and 1838.
That is 58 years to be the
first nation in human history
that doubled its
income per capita.
Today, China is doing
that every seven years.
This is absolutely incredible.
If you look at this
throughout the centuries,
the last millennium,
humanity didn't really
grow until the beginning of
the Industrial Revolution,
late in the 18th century.
By the 19th century,
the GDP per capita,
cumulative of the planet,
grew 100% in the century.
Last century, in the 20th
century, it grew almost 400%.
If this rate continues,
and I believe it will,
we'll probably grow 2000%,
3000%, 4000% this century.
We have seen nothing yet
of what is going to happen.
Additionally, the population is
finally becoming more stable,
if we look long term,
from the 18th century.
And look, that this
is a linear scale.
Now, I want to show you the
same change for GDP per capita.
Because the GDP, the income,
is growing exponentially.
From the 18th century, when
humanity had a relatively low
income-- all of humanity was
around $1,000 per capita,
per year, that was until
the Industrial Revolution--
it began growing.
And then it reached $10,000.
Soon it will reach $100,000.
And look that there is
the catching up affect
of the poorer countries
growing faster.
So we are truly living
in incredible times.
So things are changing
exponentially faster, becoming
smaller, cheaper, and better.
This is an example that Peter
Diamandis, the co-founder
of Singularity University,
likes to talk about--
and Ray-- about comparing
linear and exponential steps.
If you give 30 linear steps, you
advanced 30 meters, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7.
If you take exponential
steps, after 30 steps,
you go around the
planet 26 times.
And this is something
that we cannot comprehend.
Our brains cannot understand
easily exponential change.
But technology is
changing exponentially.
So to talk about the future, we
have a very famous philosopher
in Latin America, Mafalda.
"Malfalda" is very well known
as the most popular cartoon.
And then she was asked
once, what is the future?
And she said,
well, the future is
no longer what it used to be.
[LAUGHTER]
So we need to add
value to everything.
In Latin America, for example,
some countries produce coffee.
Does anyone know who this is?
AUDIENCE: Juan Valdez.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Juan
Valdez, exactly.
Juan Valdez.
In Columbia, this is the
symbol of Colombian coffee.
Columbia usually sells, in
the best years, $2 billion
of coffee.
Does anyone know
how much Starbucks
sells-- over $10 billion.
So we have to add value in
Latin America and everywhere.
I'll give you another example.
Because I am a big, big
fan of Mickey Mouse.
If you don't believe
me, I'll show you.
I truly like Mickey Mouse.
And I'll tell you why.
We have to go from
manufacturing to mindfacturing.
This little Mickey
Mouse hat is made
of petroleum, Venezuelan
petroleum, the country where
I grew up.
Now, if you go to Disney World
and you buy a Mickey Mouse
hat, how many dollars do you
think that this hat is worth?
How many dollars?
AUDIENCE: $20.
JOSE CORDEIRO: $20.
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].
JOSE CORDEIRO: Actually,
it's about $10.
But I'll sell it to you for $20.
[LAUGHTER]
And it is totally
made of oil, OK.
Now, do you know much is a
barrel of oil today, about?
AUDIENCE: $100.
JOSE CORDEIRO: $100.
And how many Mickey
Mouse hats do you
think you can make
from a barrel of oil?
A thousand probably, or more.
So a thousand Mickey Mouse
hats, times $10 per hat,
makes $10,000 in hats.
And the barrel of oil is $100.
So what is the value?
The value is not in
the raw materials,
not even in the manufacturing.
It's in mindfracturing,
in the mindfacturing.
So this is very important
concept I believe,
"mindfacturing."
So we futurists, we
talk about four ways
to look into the future.
The worst one is to be
passive, like an ostrich, that
hides its head, doesn't want to
know what is going to happen.
The second way is
to be reactive, OK,
like a firefighter when
there is a problem.
The third way is
to be preactive.
When you buy
insurance, for example,
to be prepared for something.
But the best way
is to be proactive,
to create the future
that you want,
to build the future
that you want.
So I hope that you
are proactive here
and that there are
no ostriches here.
But if there are
ostriches, at least
they should be
technological ostriches.
[LAUGHTER]
A few years ago-- a few years
ago, six, seven years ago,
I went to visit Sir Arthur
C. Clarke, before he died,
in Sri Lanka.
And he's very famous
among futurists.
Sir Arthur C. Clarke,
he's very famous,
not just because of "A
Space Odyssey 2001."
He's very famous because of
the three laws of the future.
I'll read them to you.
The first law-- when a
distinguished, famous scientist
says that something is
possible, he's probably right.
But when he says
it is impossible,
he is probably wrong.
Second law of the future--
the only way of discovering
the limits of the
possible is to venture
pass the limits,
into the impossible.
And the third law--
any sufficiently
advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic.
So now I am going
to talk about magic.
Because the technologies of
the future have to be magical.
And if they don't
look like magic,
it's because they
are not advanced.
30 years ago, we just began
using personal computers.
Actually, I remember when I
did my master's thesis at MIT.
I actually used a prehistoric
technology called "typewriter"
for my first thesis at MIT.
Imagine a typewriter, that
prehistoric technology.
20 years ago, mobile telephone
were becoming popular.
10 years ago, Google was still
growing up, a small start-up.
So what is going to happen
in the next 10, 20, 30 years?
We are going to have
incredible technologies.
One of them is the
control of aging.
Actually, we have
some of the faculty
of Singularity University
that say that aging
is a disease, but
a curable disease.
And we will cure disease within
in the next 20 to 30 years.
In fact, I believe we are going
to see physical mortality soon,
what I call the death of death.
Actually to put
this into reference,
we already have cells
which are immortal,
which are the germinal cells.
Germinal cells do not age.
That doesn't mean that
they are actually immortal.
Because if someone
kills them, they die.
But they do not age.
The same as bacteria.
Bacteria do not age.
Again, they are not immortal.
You might kill the bacteria.
But they do not age, which
is the important concept.
And then we have
another type of cells
which are pretty bad, which
are the cancer cells, that also
discover how to become immortal,
or at least how not to age.
So we know this is
possible because we
have good cells that not age
and bad cells that do not age.
Now, there are many
companies and groups
working in this enterprise.
The Methuselah Foundation has
tried for the last 10 years
to try to extend the
longevity of mice.
And it's very
important and very easy
to do experiments with
mice because they only
live 1 year and 1/2.
You cannot do experiments
with humans because we die
in the middle of the road.
But with a little
mouse that only
lasts for a year and a half,
we can extend their lives
and see the results.
As of now, we have
some mice that
live three times their
expected lifetime.
That is mice that live
4 and 1/2 and 5 years.
We have Drosophila
melanogaster, the fruit
flies, that four times
their regular lifespans.
We have some worms
that actually live
six times their normal lifespan.
And this isn't crazy.
This has been done
in the last 10 years.
So imagine what we are going
to do in the next 10 years?
In fact, while the SENS Research
Foundation, by Aubrey de Grey,
is working extensively
in all of this, and so
is a Russia billionaire,
Dimitry Itskov.
He's working on the
2045 Avatar Project
about virtual mortality.
But many other companies,
including Google.
I imagine you all saw this.
And Calico announced last
week-- California Life Company,
from Goggle--
announced that they
are going to make an investment
of $1 and 1/2 billion.
That's a lot of money.
OK.
And I trust Google.
So I know they are doing
something interesting
and something right.
But not just Google,
other companies.
One of the co-founders of
Singularity University, Peter
Diamandis, is working with
Craig Venter and other people
in Human Longevity,
Inc. In fact, they
stole some people from Google
to work in this company, that
is also working towards
indefinite lifespans.
And just four days
ago, a new prize
was announced, the
Palo Alto Longevity
Prize for Immortality.
This is really just beginning.
All of these that I
showed you happened
in one year, all
these companies.
I have actually done
two TV programs, one
in Latin American, in Spanish;
one for History Channel;
and one for Discovery Channel,
about all these technologies
and what we are going to see.
But now let me tell
you about the four
technologies of the future.
This was a study done by the
National Science Foundation
10 years ago with the
Department of Commerce.
They decided that the
four main technologies
that will change
humanity, and that
will change humans--
humans also--
are nano, bio, info, and cogno.
Let me show you quickly
these technologies.
This is a very interesting
way to the put the nano, that
studies atoms; bio, that studies
cells; info, that studies
bits and bytes; cogno, neurons.
If we look into these further,
the top two, nano and bio,
are the hardware of life.
And if we look below,
info and cogno,
are the software of life.
And now I will tell you
what is the complexity
of the human hardware and
of the human software.
So which complexity
level we have
to reach in order to have
immortality of the hardware
and immortality of the software?
Nanotechnology, again,
studying atoms, molecules.
And every time go smaller,
and smaller, and smaller.
Beginning actually
even with 3D printers.
I love 3D printers.
And also, again,
because tomorrow history
will be written,
when Made In Space
begins printing in the
International Space Station.
Anyway, this is s big printer.
Now, printers can do smaller,
and smaller, and smaller
things.
But again, we can also
go from the bottom up.
We can go atom,
by atom, by atom.
For example, this is an engine
made of different atoms.
Different colors are different
elements-- oxygen, sodium,
calcium, and so
on, and so forth.
And this is a design of the
smallest possible rotating
engine in this shape.
So with nanotechnology,
we will have
actually an
incredible world where
there will be no
waste, no waste.
In fact, "waste"
is a word that we
have to eliminate from language.
There is no waste.
There is only raw material, in
the wrong place-- raw material
in the wrong place.
And with nanotechnology, we
will reprocess all materials.
And we will have
incredible, clean cities
which are very advanced.
The second technology,
biotechnology.
Which I like to describe
as living nanotechnology--
nanotechnology, but alive.
Many experiments have been
done in the last few years.
10 years ago, a
Taiwanese company
began creating these
glowfish, which
are transgenic fish-- the zebra
fish with the fluorescent gene
of the Medusa from
the Caribbean.
And you can have these zebra
fish in five different colors,
really beautiful.
Actually last year-- or two
years ago-- one of our students
at Singularity
University created
this company, Glowing Plants.
Which is a plant that has also
the gene of bioluminescence
from the firefly.
He was looking for $65,000.
And at the end of the process,
he had $300,000, $400,000.
He almost got half
a million dollars
for these glowing plants.
OK.
Obviously, he advertised they
might be marijuana plants.
And some people like
growing marijuana.
But actually--
[LAUGHTER]
--actually, these
are tomato plants.
Some people like tomato too.
Anyway, this is incredible,
one of the students
of Singularity University
working on that.
Also, one of our faculty at
Singularity University, Stewart
Brand, he's working
on de-extinction,
to bring back the
species that have died,
that have disappeared.
One of the easiest cases
actually are the mammoth.
There are many frozen
mammoths in Siberia.
So many that the
Russian government
is working with
several scientists
from the USA, from
Japan, and Korea,
to bring them back to life.
And they even created
a Pleistocene park.
Not Jurassic Park,
but a Pleistocene park
in northern Siberia.
So probably we will have
mammoths back to life
in the next few
years, in Russia.
And cloning, cloning is
an important technology.
But not for reproduction.
For reproduction is
better the typical system.
Cloning will be used,
not for reproduction,
but for therapeutic reasons, to
create organs, to fix organs.
And this is a very
interesting technology.
That in Singapore, Lee Kuan
Yew, the father of Singapore,
created a city called
Biopolis, where
they are doing all
kinds of experiments
on biotechnology and cloning.
But many other countries
are doing that, like Russia.
And the problem with
Russia is you never
know what the
Russians are thinking.
[LAUGHTER]
So you have to be careful
about the Russians
and cloning in Russia.
But another incredible country
working on this is India.
And I love India.
I have been many times to India.
And if you know the Indian
gods, they are very strange.
They have gods that
have three heads, gods
that have eight arms.
However, think how useful it
could be to have three heads?
One head is working,
one head is having fun,
and the third head is
sleeping, all at the same time.
Or having eight arms--
wouldn't this be wonderful?
I know that you laugh.
But if you come from
India, this is normal
because your gods have
three heads and eight arms.
So I want you to come out
of your Western model,
for some of you, and to
think about other religions.
Because also in India,
they believe in rebirth.
They believe in reincarnation.
And what is the closest thing
in biology to reincarnation,
cloning.
OK, so India is advancing very
fast on cloning technologies.
And now let me tell you the
first of the two numbers
that I want you
to memorize, which
is the complexity of
the human hardware.
And later I will tell
you the complexity
of the human software.
Scientists, 10 years ago,
created an artificial virus.
But a virus is very
small, has very few genes,
and a small number of
base pairs of nucleotides.
If you remember biology, A
goes with T and C goes with--
AUDIENCE: G.
JOSE CORDEIRO: --G.
So basically, an artificial
virus was created 10 years ago.
Two years ago, another
scientist-- actually,
Craig Venter-- created
an artificial bacteria.
But bacteria are
obviously bigger.
And in order to prove that
he created the bacteria,
the scientists
even put the email
of the team that
created the bacteria.
But still, a bacteria is small.
However, how long will it take
until we can create something
like a human being?
And that is number one.
3 gigabytes, that
is the complexity
of the human
hardware, 3 gigabytes.
Even the most
complex people here
has no more than 3 gigabytes.
Even Ray has only 3 gigabytes.
[LAUGHTER]
Here, I have a pen drive--
RAY KURTZWEIL: There's
massive redundancy in that.
JOSE CORDEIRO: On top.
Thank you.
RAY KURTZWEIL: And like
ALUs are [INAUDIBLE],
like a thousand times.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Absolutely.
RAY KURTZWEIL:
The natural amount
of data, if you just
compress out the redundancy,
is about 50 million bytes.
JOSE CORDEIRO: So you
see how small we are?
And this pen drive
has 128 gigabytes.
So how many people
can I fit here?
Divide 128 gigabytes
by 3 gigabytes
and add the redundancy
factor that Ray mentioned.
And here you can fit 42
people and a little cat.
[LAUGHTER]
OK.
Now I will move into the
complexity of the processing
software.
For that, we wanted to-- well,
again, remember, we humans,
we are basically four
letters, A, T, C, G.
The third technology,
info technology.
According to the advances in
computers and the processing
power, we are basically
reaching the complexity
of a spider, a lizard.
And then in 20,
30, years, we will
reach the complexity of
a monkey, of a human.
And everything
will be connected,
just like in
telecommunications, becoming
smaller and more powerful.
And soon we will get
into the fifth generation
of telecommunications.
So much, that I was traveling
in Scandinavia a few months ago
and I saw this advertisement
about telecommunications,
where they say that the children
will actually be born already
with internet connected.
And the first thing they will
ask is for more bandwidth.
They need more bandwidth.
Because we are going to connect
everybody with everybody.
We will probably create a
global brain, a global network,
into what is called "the
internet of things."
Everything will be
connected with everything,
the internet of things.
And people, computers,
cars-- especially
if they drive themselves,
the self-driving cars.
Also BMW.
And now, that by 2025, all other
cars will be fully automatic,
fully self-driving cars.
They don't want humans.
We are very bad driving.
So they don't want
humans driving cars.
And we will connect
ourselves with internet
in different ways.
Google Glass is one
of those new ways.
Internet to our eyes and our
eyes to internet, for example.
But what I find
truly fascinating
was the announcement
made in April, last year,
by Eric Schmidt, about
connecting the whole planet
with free internet.
This is beautiful.
This will change the world.
It will change the world.
But then obviously,
other companies they
will stay behind.
And Mark Zuckerberg
announced a few months later
that Facebook had a
different program.
But also with the
objective, by 2020,
to connect the whole planet,
in the middle of the Sahara,
in the middle of the Pacific
Ocean, in the North Pole.
But later still, another group,
called Outernet, as opposed
to internet,
Outernet, because they
are working with
microsatellites.
I don't know if their
microsatellites,
or if the drones, or if
the balloons will win.
What I do know is
that before 2020, we
will have free internet
in the whole planet,
in the whole planet.
This is the most
incredible thing
to democratize knowledge,
to democratize access
to information.
And artificial intelligence
gave us some programs.
And you are all familiar with
IBM's Watson, that in 2011 beat
the two experts in the
game, Ken and Brad.
Actually, Ken was
normally so good
at playing Jeopardy
that he even wrote
a book about how to win
at the game Jeopardy.
And do you know what Watson did?
Watson read the book.
[LAUGHTER]
But Watson not only
read that book,
Watson was born with
Wikipedia in its head.
How many of you have
Wikipedia in your brains,
or even 1% of it?
And do you even remember
1% of what you have read?
Well, Watson remembers it all.
Now, obviously, it
was very expensive.
It was over $40 million
TO develop Watson.
Many scientists work during
four years, or a bit longer.
But, soon, it would
probably be free.
It will be a free application,
like it happened before
with Deep Blue, when in 1997,
beat the world chess champion,
Garry Kasparov.
That computer actually
was much more expensive.
That computer was
over $100 million.
And it took IBM over 10 years.
Obviously, we had bad
technology 20 years ago,
compared to what we have today.
Do you know how
much is that today?
You can buy the descendant
of Deep Blue for free.
You can get descendants of
Deep Blue free in internet.
And no human can
beat those programs.
So anyway, one of the
first applications,
as you probably know,
of IBM, is Dr. Watson.
In order to become a
good medical doctor
it will know all the
books of medicine,
all the journals of medicine.
All the personal histories of
the patients who allow that.
No human can have access or
process all that information.
So finally, medicine
will be good.
Instead of bad, as it is now,
it will be a good science.
And so we arrive at the
last and final technology,
which is the most
interesting-- cognitive
technology,
neuroscience, the brain.
The brain is very
important because it
is the most complex
organ in the human body.
And it is basically
the only organ
that we have not been able to
reproduce artificially yet.
We have been able to do almost
anything, artificial eyes,
artificial pancreas, artificial
lungs, artificial heart,
everything except for the brain.
Why?
Because the brain is
the most complex organ.
Not only that, it is the
most complex structure
in the known universe.
Maybe tomorrow, we have a
Martian, who has a bigger brain
that we humans.
But until that time,
there is nothing
that we know of more complex
than the human brain.
And you know what?
The brain is not that complex.
And in the next
few years, we are
going to decipher
the brain, which
is the final frontier
in terms of complexity.
But we will go beyond the brain.
For that, you have to read Ray's
book, "How to Create a Mind."
He explains a lot about that.
And now the book
is in Spanish, it
is in German, and in
many other languages.
And it is recommended
by my colleague
from Venezuela, who is the
president of MIT, Rafael Reif,
as one of the best
books there is
to understand how the
mind, the brain work.
And how did the brain evolve?
We understand today
that the brain
has been changing through ages.
In fact, in Japan, they have
the Riken Brain Institute,
where they have followed the
evolution, biological evolution
of the brain and how the
brain can continue evolving,
can continue changing.
So also in terms of the genome,
let me tell you once all of you
sequence your genome,
you will realize
that we are 99%
equal to a monkey.
We are very close to a monkey.
And we are about 90%
equal to a mouse.
So actually we are very similar.
So if we are only
1% above-- to put
it that way-- above a
monkey, or 10% above a mouse,
can you imagine 1% above a
human, or 10% above a human,
or 100% above a human?
So all these things,
we are going to see.
Anywhere, in Japan they are
working on this brain research
institute.
And they originally had
a plan for the year 2018
to create artificial brains.
Since that time actually--
they began in 1997-- now
they say they are running
between five and 10 years late.
By still, they are
moving forward.
They say between
2023 and 2028, they
will be able to recreate
artificial brains
equivalent to human brains.
In the USA, as you
know, a few years ago
the Human Connectome
project began.
And last year,
President Barack Obama
announced the Brain
Initiative, with $1 billion
for the next 10 years.
And just around the same
time, the European Union
gave 1 billion euros for
the Human Brain Project.
So I don't know if
the USA, if Europe,
or Japan is going to do it.
And China is coming up soon
with their own program.
But in the next
10 years, we will
understand how the
brain works and we
will be able to replicate
artificial brains.
So this is the second number I
would like for you to remember.
And it's a very
simple schematic.
But a brain basically
has 100 billion neurons.
That is 10 to the 11 neurons.
That is all the neurons
we have in the brain.
We can have less.
But we don't have more.
So let's say 10 to the 11.
Each neuron has about 1,000
connections, 2,000 connections,
4,000 connections, maybe
a bit more, a bit less.
That gives about 10 to the
14 connections or synapses.
And those synapses are
the ones that compute.
The brain has basically six
main frequencies, alpha waves,
beta waves, delta
waves, mu waves,
which are actually
very, very slow.
The brain frequencies are 1
hertz, 10 hertz, 100 hertz.
A very fast brain, like
Ray's brain, is 1 kilohertz.
1 kilohertz.
My telephone has
achieved of 3 gigahertz.
So these telephone computes
a million times faster
than any human brain.
The difference obviously
is that I still
have more neurons than
this has transistors.
But this will change in
the next 10 to 20 years.
And we will have devices that
process a million times faster
than our brains and that have
as many transistors-equivalent
neurons as we do.
So the complexity of the human
software, to put it that way,
is 10 to the 17.
And this is a ballpark figure.
Some people say it is 10
to the 15, 10 to the 16.
Some people say it is 10
to the 18, 10 to the 20.
I do not care.
It is just a matter of time.
Due to the law of
accelerating returns,
it can be five years
earlier or five years later.
But it is a finite number.
That we know.
It's a finite number.
So if we don't talk about the
mind, the spirit, and the soul,
then a brain just computes 10
to the 17 operations per second.
And we are going to reach that
level in the next 20 years.
But there are a
smaller brains too.
No bigger brains yet.
[LAUGHTER]
But we can have smaller brains.
And we are going to
connect the brains
to computers and
to other devices,
with internal brain implants or
with external brain implants.
In fact, scientists
are beginning
to do also brain-to-brain
interfaces.
And they have been
able to transfer
from the brain of a mouse to
the brain of another mouse,
how to find cheese
in a labyrinth.
This is just beginning.
They are doing similar
experiments with monkeys.
And then we are going to
do this also with humans.
I have this technology,
which is already like three,
four years ago.
But I like it lot
because it lets
you do a few experiments
in terms of concentration,
meditation, targeting,
and playing other games.
This basically is an
electroencephalogram.
There is no magic here.
This is an
electroencephalogram that
reads what is happening in the
center part of my frontal lobe.
And then through a
Bluetooth connection,
sends it to my
computer and analyzes
what is happening in my brain.
Soon we will be able to do this
also from person to person.
And with more
electrodes, we will
be able to capture
more information.
There are companies like
Emotiv that have 14 electrodes.
Soon we would have
100 electrodes.
Then we will have
1,000 electrodes.
And then we want to stop using
this primitive technology
called talking.
Talking is a very
primitive technology,
with a very narrow bandwidth.
I have to say word
after word, after word.
And you have to be listen
to me, word after word,
after word, bad joke, another
word, and so on, and so forth.
In the future, we
will be able to send
the information from brain
to brain, like computers do.
Everything I wanted to
say here is in my brain.
But I cannot transfer it fast
enough because it is a narrow
bandwidth communication system.
Obviously, this was incredible,
because monkeys do not talk.
So between a non-talking
monkey and us,
there is a huge difference.
But imagine when we have
brain to brain communication?
It is not a dream.
Telepathy we will have
thanks to technology.
And we will do this
also with robots.
And I want to show you the
last 15 years of Asimo.
Look what Honda has done
in the last 15 years.
I ask you, can you
imagine what Honda
will do in the next 15 years?
They say that in 20 years,
they will win the World Cup.
It will be a robot team
winning the World Cup.
And robots will be fantastic,
with many degrees of motion,
that we don't have, humans.
And they will have feelings.
At MIT, in the MIT
Media Lab, they
are working on understanding
the feelings of robots.
And in South Korea, they
are working on a law
to give human rights to robots.
You heard it was human
rights to robots.
Because they believe
that in 10 to 15 years,
every human will have a robot.
And those robots
will not be stupid.
And robots will be
absolutely fantastic.
Imagine those robots.
And also for the
women, don't desperate.
You will have your
fantastic match of robots,
with the additional advantage
that they will never
get tired at night.
Unfortunately, we think
normally that robots are bad.
And that's because of the
former governor of California.
[LAUGHTER]
Who actually gave one
of the opening speeches
at the inauguration of
Singularity University in 2009.
And he said, fantastic that
you think about the future
because the science
fiction of today
is the science
reality of tomorrow.
But here, because of Hollywood,
we think robots are bad.
Even female robots are bad too.
Including, when they
have sex, they are bad.
But are robots good
or are robots bad?
And I could tell you it
depends where you're from.
It depends on your culture.
If you grow up in
Japan, robots are good.
In fact, robots are
better than humans.
When a human has a
problem, they expect
that a robot will help them.
And there are many books
now in Japan-- for example,
how to have sex with robots.
And I'm not joking.
The mentality of the Japanese,
and the Korean, and the Chinese
is totally different.
I will give you an
example that you
will understand, with dragons.
Dragons in China are good.
Dragons in Korea
and Japan are good.
But dragons in Europe are bad.
European dragons are bad.
They kill people.
They destroy cities.
They throw fire.
But in Asia, they are good.
The same with robots.
Robots in Asia are good.
And that is why
Japan and Korea are
the leaders in humanoid
robotics in the world today.
Because they are good.
And all companies in
Japan are doing robots.
At Honda, Toyota,
Fuji, all of them.
But again, this is
not human or robot.
This is human and machines.
This is the synergy, the fusion,
of humans and our creations.
We already saw that
in the London Olympics
with Blade Runner.
We saw this also at the
opening of the World Cup,
where a paraplegic person,
connected to an exoskeleton
with a device like this,
much more sophisticated,
stood up and gave the initial
kickoff of the World Cup
in Brazil.
We are going to see
more in two years.
After the Olympic
games in Brazil,
there will be the first cyborg
Olympics in Zurich, Switzerland
for discapacitated people, with
no legs, with no eyes, enhanced
thanks to technology.
This is coming in
two years in Zurich.
This is the beginning
of these technologies
used to enhance humans.
All of this is
called transhumanism,
which is transcending
human limitations thanks
to science and technology.
We humans, we are not
the end of evolution.
We are just the beginning
of conscious evolution.
Just like we are trans-monkeys,
there will be transhumans.
But we have to do
this carefully.
Because we don't want
to finish like that.
[LAUGHTER]
Our species is called
Homo sapiens sapiens,
which is quite unique.
This means the human
that knows, that knows.
We are the first species that
is fully aware of its existence,
as far as we know.
But we are not the end.
We are just the
beginning of this path.
Life on this planet has
existed for about 3 and 1/2
billion years.
But the first 3 billion
years was only bacteria.
Let me remind you,
bacteria are immortal.
Or better, bacteria do not age.
Also they have
round chromosomes.
They have no telomeres because
they are completely round.
So a bacteria does not age.
It can die, if you kill it.
But it does not age.
Life appeared to be
alive, not to die.
And that is the
beginning with bacteria.
Anyway, humans we are very new.
Humans, in our
current shape, we have
existed for maybe 100,000 years.
But we are not the
end of evolution.
We are changing biologically.
And now, we are changing
technologically.
In the next few years, we are
going to cure all diseases.
There will be [INAUDIBLE]
paraplegics in 10 years.
We will not have these
horrible diseases.
No more Parkinson's.
No more Alzheimer's.
No more aging.
We are going to see the death
of death in the next few years.
But everything has ying and
yang, as the Chinese say.
And this is so complex that
even the ying/yang, inside
has little ying/yangs.
And in fact, more-- little,
little, little, ying/yangs.
So there is always the
dark side of the Force.
And I just went to
North Korea last year.
And let me show
you the two Koreas.
There are a good country
and a bad country.
So we have to
think about what is
going to happen with humanity.
The Chinese say it's better
not to blame darkness,
but to light up a candle.
So I just want to light
up a little candle
and that is why I went to
North Korea, the last country
in the world without
internet, while South Korea is
the most connected
country in the planet.
And they are the same or
they were the same country.
So we just have to think
about the world, which is one.
We have to meditate
about the world.
I do a lot of meditations with
the Hindus, with the Buddhists.
And I finish with
this Chinese word.
I lived three years in Japan.
So I learned some
Chinese characters.
At the beginning, I didn't
know how to write it well
and I wrote it upside
down or sideways.
Now, I know it is
written like that.
This is the word in Chinese,
and Japanese, and Korean,
and sometimes in Vietnamese,
that means "crisis."
Crisis has two
characters in Chinese.
The first one means danger.
But the second one means,
normally, opportunity.
So we are going
through the biggest
crisis in the
history of humanity.
But let's not only
look at the danger.
Let's look at the opportunity.
Thank you very much.
[APPLAUSE]
AUDIENCE: A question
about-- it's sort
of an ethical question.
So you say there's going
to be these technologies.
But technologies cost money.
And I'm wondering do you see it
as being available to everyone
or only the rich
people will become
immortal and all these things?
And then-- that's
basically the question.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Yeah.
The ethical issues
are fundamental.
And I myself come from
the developing world.
But I believe that
technology is actually
what will help us to
leapfrog from poverty.
If you look at the example
of mobile telephones,
in Africa there were
no phones 20 years ago.
Now, every African--
and I'm saying Africa
because it is the poorest
continent in the planet-- has
a mobile phone.
Why?
Because the first
technologies, when they come,
actually they are expensive, and
they are for the rich people,
and they do not work.
[LAUGHTER]
Then they go into
mass production.
They become cheap.
And they work.
And this is when the
poor people get them.
In terms of anti-aging
technologies,
obviously the first
immortal-- to put it
this way-- will be probably
people like Bill Gates
or someone like that.
But in a very short
time, everybody
will have access to
those technologies.
But I understand
the ethical issues.
In fact, at
Singularity University,
there is a special course
called Policy Law and Ethics,
because this is fundamental.
And I can tell you, as coming
from the developing world,
I'm concerned about that.
Yes?
RAY KURTZWEIL: Only
the wealthy will
access to these technologies at
a price where they don't work.
By the time they work
well, like cellphones,
we have today 1 to
2 billion of them.
And we'll have 5 to 6
billion within a few years.
And they get better and better.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Um-huh.
Yeah, those are smartphones.
Because in terms of
cheap mobile phones,
almost everybody
now could have one.
AUDIENCE: As you know, we've
seen accelerating change
in most technologies
in the world.
Why do you think
that kind of change
is not being seen in energy
and the use of fossil fuel?
JOSE CORDEIRO: You know,
this is so beautiful.
I actually went to give a talk
on that because that's my area.
I work on energy.
And people do not
see this coming.
In the next 20
years, we are going
to go through a solar
tsunami, a solar tsunami.
What is happening
in solar energy
is going to disrupt completely
the fossil fuel industry.
And they don't see it,
I was talking to
Vinod Khosla, one
of the co-founders
of Sun Microsystems.
And he said the same happened
30 years ago when they did not
see the mobile
phones, especially
people in the normal
telephone companies.
And now, everybody has
come a mobile phone.
What we are going to see in
solar energy and renewables
is incredible.
And this year is very especially
important because now we
have reached what is
called grid parity,
when renewables are
cheaper than fossil fuels.
And the trend continues cheaper
and cheaper and cheaper.
And now, there is mass
production of solar panels.
And solar panels use many
of the same technologies
as chips, semiconductor
chips, made
of silicon and
many other things.
Companies like Applied
Materials-- Applied Materials
made chips for computers
and chips for solar panels
We are going to see
a radical change.
And, in fact, Ray says-- and
also I believe in it strongly--
in 20 years, it will be
fully reliable, mostly solar.
RAY KURTZWEIL: Larry
Page and I did a study
for the National Academy of
Engineering a few years ago,
before he got this new job.
And we noted a exponential
growth in the number of watts
for this plateau has
been doubling every two
years, for the last 30 years.
It's now only five doublings,
and two years each,
from 100% of the world's energy.
At which point, we'll be
using [INAUDIBLE] sunlight
[INAUDIBLE].
JOSE CORDEIRO: Absolutely.
This is so true.
We receive 10,000
times more solar energy
on the atmosphere of
the planet than we
consume-- 10,000 times more.
We just need 1% of 1%.
And this is growing really
exponentially, as Ray said.
And it's doubling
every two years.
So I do believe in 20 years,
fossil fuel will be fossil.
AUDIENCE: We're working on
sequencing the human genome,
understanding the human brain.
How we're doing all the
commensal organisms that
make up the walking
ecosystems that we actually
are, since our human cells
are outnumbered drastically
by all of the microflora
and fauna in our bodies?
JOSE CORDEIRO: Yes.
There are also many
people working on that.
As you said, we have
more foreign cells,
or non-human cells, than
human cells in our bodies.
But I don't particularly
think that that is a problem.
Because in order to
create artificial organs,
we don't have to go through
all the same messy procedures
that have created
us or that made us.
Like if you want to do
an artificial heart,
you don't copy a natural
heart completely.
Or if you create a plane,
you don't copy a bird.
So I think many of the things
we will do in the future
will not be totally biological
and will not necessarily
follow biology.
But anyway, that's not
my area of expertise.
AUDIENCE: When we see
the death of death,
will we also see
the death of birth?
AUDIENCE: Good question.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Well,
actually it might
happen because in fact the
population of the planet
is already stabilizing.
Today, we are over
7 billion people.
And in most developed countries,
except for the USA, and Canada,
and Australia, the
developed countries
have stabilized
or are going down.
I lived three years in Japan.
The population of Japan
declined 1 million people
in the three years
I was in Japan.
Russia is going through
a collapse in population.
China will see the most
incredible common suicide.
China is going to lose 200
million people between 2030
and 2050.
In any event, we are reaching
stabilization of population.
And what will happen in
the future, I do not know.
But we are beginning to
colonize the universe as well.
We need more people
to go to Mars.
We need volunteers.
Do you want to go to Mars?
Even if it is one
way, as-- Elon Musk,
Elon Musk said he wants to die
on Mars, but not on landing.
[LAUGHTER]
AUDIENCE: Kind of piggy-backing
off this question as well,
but assuming that we see at
least a slowdown in birth
rates, how would
that affect-- I mean
you saw how small a portion of
the whole evolutionary process
we are.
Would we just be
drawing a line there
And we'd have to manually tinker
with ourselves from then on?
Or like how do we continue to
evolve as a species as well?
Because I feel like we're
not exactly perfect.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Yeah.
I don't know.
Maybe Ray would like to
comment on that better than me.
But I think we are
going to see a Cambrian
explosion of new life forms.
RAY KURTZWEIL: Well, it
was actually surprising.
Scientists discovered that there
has been biological evolution
in humans in the
last thousand years.
But nonetheless,
it's insignificant
compared to our
technological evolution.
And that is expanding
exponentially.
And we're going to-- we are
enhancing ourselves already.
The kid who helped to
build the smartphone
has access to more
information than the president
of the United States
had 15 years ago.
And we're get closer and
closer to these technologies.
And that's the future
evolution of humanity,
into a human-technological
symbiosis.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Oh, here, here.
AUDIENCE: Is the timing
of these technologies
being planned at
all in the sense
that if we're going
to become immortal,
then maybe we should have
figured out all our resource
problems before then or
we should have figured out
a way off this planet
before that point?
Otherwise, we're going to
choke ourselves on this planet.
JOSE CORDEIRO:
Actually, we think
we have unlimited
resources on this planet.
Do you know how much are
you worth on raw material?
You're not worth even $100.
Or me-- don't take
it personally.
[LAUGHTER]
I mean we are 70% water.
And we are not Evian
or Perrier water.
We are tap water.
The other 30% that makes us
are very simple elements.
So they are calcium
and potassium.
We are very cheap to make.
We are so cheap to make that our
parents made us in one night.
So humans are very
cheap to make.
Now with nanotechnology, we
will be able to structure
matter the way we want it.
So actually I think we
have enough resources
on this planet.
We don't have a resource
scarcity problem.
And the game with
nanotechnology will radically
change many things.
And the universe is
full of mass anyway.
I mean we live in a tiny, tiny
planet, in a tiny solar system,
in a tiny galaxy.
I mean the universe is so big,
so huge, so full of resources.
And we are not even $100.
AUDIENCE: So when you speak of
these accelerating technologies
and nanotechnology,
obviously there
is incredible opportunity for
transhumanistic possibilities,
for things to go really well.
But when you speak of, I
guess, developing emotions
in robots and those sort
of artificial intelligence
systems, and I
think there's also
a possibility for
negative almost
volition of these systems.
Are you worried about that,
I guess in the future?
JOSE CORDEIRO: Of course, I'm
always worried about this.
But also I wanted to
emphasize different cultures.
That's why I said in Japan,
the Japanese love robots.
I mean they want to
have sex with robots.
They will probably do it
even better sometimes, huh?
Or they will not get tired.
But I am concerned, obviously.
I am concerned.
This is the Terminator
scenario or the Skynet.
Does anyone know
Google is the Skynet?
So this is a possibility.
But I think evolution has been
improving the human conditions
throughout the ages
and we will continue.
But it is true technology can
be used for good or bad things,
beginning with fire.
Fire was one of the first
inventions by humans
half a million years ago.
And fire, you can use it
for cooking or getting warm,
or for burning your enemy.
Or nuclear technology,
for electricity
or for nuclear weapons?
So technology has a dark side.
But I think the positive
side is much bigger.
And humanity, obviously,
in general, is good.
I believe most humans are good.
RAY KURTZWEIL: I
just wanted to thank
you, Jose, for an
inspiring presentation.
Thank you.
JOSE CORDEIRO: Thank you.
[APPLAUSE]
