BIG NEWS OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE
THIS MORNING.
>> Sandra: THE NEW MONTHLY JOBS
REPORT IS IN AND IT DID BEAT
EXPECTATIONS WITH MORE THAN A
MILLION JOBS ADDED LAST MONTH.
LOWERING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
TO 8.4%.
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRY ALL
AVERAGE, HOWEVER, IS
SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN THIS MORNING.
A 500-POINT DROP.
THE ACTING CHAIRMAN OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS,
TYLER GOODSPEED.
THE DROP IN THE DOW.
IS THIS PRESIDENT SAYING
ANYTHING ABOUT THIS THIS
MORNING?
IT HAS BEEN A WILD WEEK FOR
MARKETS AND SEEMS THAT THE
TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES, AMERICAN
TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES ARE LOSING
A LOT OF STEAM AFTER A RECORD
RUN-UP.
>> THANK YOU, SANDRA.
WE’RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
EQUITY MARKETS AND WE’RE
DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS OF
WHERE THERE IS WEAKNESS.
AND THESE THINGS HAPPEN IN
EQUITY MARKETS.
WHAT WE’RE FOCUSED ON AT THE
MOMENT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING IN
THE REAL ECONOMY AND AS YOU
SAID IN THE AUGUST JOBS REPORT
WE SAW IN ADDITION TO GAINS OF
1.4 MILLION EMPLOYEES IN THE
BUSINESS SURVEY, WE ALSO SAW A
DECLINE OF 1.8% IN THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VASTLY
EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS, WHICH
WAS FOR A MORE MODEST DECLINE
FROM 10.2 PERCENT.
WE SAW A DECLINE TO 8.4
PERCENT, MORE PEOPLE ACTIVELY
LOOKING FOR WORK.
WE WOULD HAVE EXPECTED TO BUMP
UP THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.
JUST TO PUT IT IN PERSPECTIVE,
ONLY A FEW MONTHS AGO THE
NONPARTISAN CONGRESSIONAL
BUDGET OFFICE WAS FORECASTING
AN AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
DURING THE THREE MONTHS OF
JULY, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER OF
14.1%.
INSTEAD WE’VE SMASHED THROUGH
THAT AND THE NONPARTISAN CBO
WAS PREDICTING AN END OF YEAR
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 10.5%.
A VLASIM PROVEMENT ON
EXPECTATIONS AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE PRE-COVID LABOR MARKET
AND IMPRESSED WITH THE U.S.
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE.
>> Sandra: THERE ARE QUESTIONS
HOW LONG THIS RECOVERY CAN
LAST, HOW STRONG IT CAN
CONTINUE TO RECOVER.
WE WERE TALKING TO A FORMER
OBAMA ECONOMIC ADVISOR IN THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE SHOW THIS
MORNING JASON FUHRMAN WHO GAVE
CREDIT TO THE REBOUND WE’RE
SEEING IN THE ECONOMY.
HE SAID HOWEVER FOR THIS TO
LAST IT IS GOING TO TAKE MORE
STIMULUS BECAUSE THE MARKETS
HAVE BEEN GOING UP WITH AN
UNPRECEDENTED AMOUNT OF HELP.
HOW DEPENDENT IS THE MARKET AND
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY ON MORE
STIMULUS?
>> THERE IS NO DOUBT WE HAVE
VASTLY EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
AND ALREADY CLAWED BACK 50% OF
THE JOBS LOST IN MARCH AND
APRIL AND NOW THE CHALLENGE IS
REGAINING THE REMAINING 50%.
THAT IS WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP
REMAINS COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING
BIPARTISAN LEGISLATION THAT CAN
PASS BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS
AND HE CAN SIGN INTO LAW THAT
INCLUDES THINGS LIKE A RELOAD
OF THE PAYCHECK PROTECTION
PROGRAM AND INCLUDES INCENTIVES
FOR EMPLOYEE RETENTION AND
HIRING AND THAT INCLUDES
CONTINUED ENHANCED UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE BENEFITS TO INSURE
HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS STABILIZED.
WE HAVE ACHIEVED REMARKABLE
GAINS THUS FAR AND FOCUSED ON
MAKING SURE WE GET BACK TO THE
STATE OF AFFAIRS THAT PREVAILED
ON THE EVE OF THIS PANDEMIC.
WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MUCH MORE
WILLINGNESS TO COMPROMISE ON
THE PART OF COUNTERPARTS ON THE
HILL.
WE HAVE UPPED OUR OFFER ON
STATE AND LOCAL AID AND UPPED
OUR OFFER ON NUTRITIONAL
ASSISTANCE AND UPPED OUR OFFER
ON THE POST OFFICE.
WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LOT MORE
ENGAGEMENT ON WHAT NEEDS TO BE
DONE TO ACHIEVE FULL RECOVERY
IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET.
>> Sandra: YOU ALWAYS HAVE ON
YOUR ECONOMIST HAT.
HOW ABOUT YOUR POLITICAL HAT?
THERE IS A LOT OF GUESSING
GOING ON WHERE THE ECONOMY WILL
BE EARLY NOVEMBER.
WHERE -- WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS
AND PROJECTIONS?
>> WHEN WE LOOK AT THE REAL
DATA, WE LOOK AT THE ADVANCED
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS NUMBERS
THAT CAME OUT LAST WEEK.
IT IMPLIES A REAL EQUIPMENT
INVESTMENT GROWTH NORTH OF 20%.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE RETAIL
SALES NUMBER AND PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES LAST
MONTH IT IMPLIES GOOD GROWTH OF
35%.
ALMOST 70% OF THE ECONOMY RIGHT
THERE.
ALSO THE HOUSING MARKET HAS
BEEN A PARTICULAR SOURCE OF
STRENGTH.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE INCREASE IN
BUILDING PERMITS, ADDRESS
DENTIONAL CONSTRUCTION WE’RE
LOOKING AT ANALYZED GROWTH
NORTH OF 20% IN CONSTRUCTION.
>> Sandra: YOU ARE PUTTING OUT
A LOT OF POSITIVE DATA POINTS.
THOSE ARE ESSENTIAL TO POINT
OUT.
WHERE ARE YOU MOST CONCERNED?
WHERE IS THE ECONOMY HAVING A
HARD TIME COMING BACK?
>> WELL, I THINK WHAT WE ARE
FOCUSED ON IS MAKING SURE THAT
WE ACHIEVE -- WE CLOSE THAT GAP
IN TERMS OF THE REMAINING
EMPLOYMENT LOSSES TO BE
RECOUPED SINCE APRIL.
>> Sandra: ARE SOME OF THOSE
JOBS NOT COMING BACK?
>> I THINK THAT WE’RE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WE’LL REATTAIN THE
LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT WE
OBSERVED IN FEBRUARY.
AND WE’RE WORKING VERY HARD TO
MAKE SURE THAT POLICY CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THAT RECOVERY
BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
WE LEARNED IN THE AFTERMATH OF
2008 AND 2009 IS WHEN YOU ALLOW
THESE LABOR MARKET DISRUPTIONS
TO PERSIST IT CAN BE A LONG
TIME BEFORE YOU GET FULL LABOR
MARKET RECOVERY.
BACK IN 2009 THE UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE PEAKED AT 10% IN OCTOBER
2009.
IT WAS 27 MONTHS BEFORE WE SAW
AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 8.4%.
WE’RE VERY ENCOURAGED TO SEE
8.4% IN JUST ONE MONTH.
>> Sandra: WE’LL HAVE YOU BACK
