>>> U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
>>> U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
HAVE NOW SPENT EIGHT STRAIGHT
WEEKS IN THE MILLIONS.
NOW TOTALING UPWARD OF 36
MILLION.
THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THAT ANOTHER
NEARLY 3 MILLION PEOPLE APPLIED
FOR JOBLESS CLAIMS LAST WEEK.
STAGGERING.
THE AMOUNT OF CLAIMS HAS BEEN ON
STEADY DECLINE AS PART OF THE
COUNTRY STARTS TO REOPEN.
THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE RECEIVING
ONGOING BENEFITS IS STILL 22.8
MILLION.
JOINING US NOW, FORMER TREASURY
OFFICIAL, MORNING JOE ECONOMIC
ANALYST, STEVE RATTNER.
YOU’RE LOOKING AT SPECIFICS
HERE.
YOU HAVE SOME CHARTS ON THE
UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE AND WHO IS
GETTING HURT THE WORST.
TELL US ABOUT IT.
>> YES, MIKA.
AS YOU LED IN, THE UNEMPLOYMENT
NUMBERS ARE GETTING WORSE, AND
ECONOMISTS ARE ACCORDINGLY
TAKING DOWN THEIR FORECASTS.
SO YOU CAN TAKE A LOOK AT A
CHART THAT SHOWS YOU, FROM
GOLDMAN SACHS, WHAT THEY DID
EARLIER THIS WEEK.
THEY WERE PROJECTING, IF YOU
LOOK AT THE SECOND BAR TO THE
LEFT, AS RECENTLY AS A MONTH
AGO, A 13.3% UNEMPLOYMENT.
THAT’S THE TOP OF THE GRAY BAR.
THEY’RE NOW PROJECTING, IN THE
SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, 25%
UNEMPLOYMENT IN THIS QUARTER.
THEY’VE INCREASED THEIR
PROJECTION FOR THE THIRD QUARTER
TO 18.5%.
EVEN WHEN YOU GET TO THE FOURTH
QUARTER, WHICH, OF COURSE,
ELECTION DAY IS GOING TO OCCUR,
UNEMPLOYMENT IS LIKELY TO BE
AROUND 10%.
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS CHART,
YOU CAN SEE OVER THE COMING
THREE YEARS, MODEST DECLINES IN
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.
EVEN WHEN YOU GET TO THE 2023,
WE HAVE 6.6% UNEMPLOYMENT, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE THE 3.8% WE HAD
BEFORE THIS STARTED, AND WELL
ABOVE WHAT ECONOMISTS THINK OF
AS FULL EMPLOYMENT.
WE’RE LOOKING AT A SLOW RETURN
TO WORK FOR MOST PEOPLE AND HIGH
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES FOR A GOOD
WHILE.
LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW A
COUPLE OF -- HOW THIS BREAKS
DOWN AMONG A COUPLE GROUPS OF
PEOPLE.
IF YOU START WITH LOWER INCOME
WORKERS, YOU CAN SEE THAT THEY
ARE HURTING THE MOST.
39% OF ALL WORKERS WHO MAKE LESS
THAN $40,000 EITHER LOST THEIR
JOB OR WERE FURLOUGHED BACK IN
MARCH.
THAT’S OBVIOUSLY BEFORE EVEN
MUCH OF THIS HIT.
39% OF LOWER INCOME WORKERS LOST
THEIR JOBS.
ONLY 19% OF WORKERS WITH INCOMES
BETWEEN $40,000 AND $50,000, AND
ONLY 13% OF WORKERS WITH INCOMES
OVER $100,000.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, IN THESE LOWER
INCOME AREAS,
DISPROPORTIONATELY, MINORITIES
BEING HURT THE WORSE BY WHAT’S
HAPPENING ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT
SECTION.
NOW, YOU MENTIONED THE
SHE-CESSION, SO LET’S TALK ABOUT
WHAT’S HAPPENING TO WOMEN.
IF YOU START ACTUALLY ALL THE
WAY ON THE LEFT HERE, YOU CAN
SEE, NOT SURPRISINGLY, THAT
HISTORICALLY, MEN MADE UP MOST
OF THE LABOR FORCE.
52% COMPARED TO THE 48% IN 2000.
IN THE 2008/2009 RECESSION, THAT
WAS A MAN RECESSION.
THE SHARE OF JOBS THAT WENT TO
MEN, THE BLUE LINE, DROPS
PRECIPITOUSLY.
THE SHARE GOING TO WOMEN
INCREASED.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR
HISTORY, WOMEN HAD MORE JOBS
THAN MEN COMING OUT OF THE
’08/’09 RECESSION.
THEN WE WENT BACK TO A MORE
TRADITIONAL PATTERN.
ON THE RIGHT, YOU CAN SEE WHAT’S
HAPPENED, LITERALLY, IN JUST ONE
MONTH, WHICH IS FAR MORE WOMEN
LOST THEIR JOBS THAN MEN WHO
LOST THEIR JOBS.
THE SHARE OF THE LABOR FORCE
GOING TO MEN HAS GONE UP.
WHY IS THAT?
THAT’S BECAUSE THIS IS A VERY
DIFFERENT RECESSION THAN THE
LAST ONE.
THE LAST ONE WAS MOSTLY ABOUT
MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION,
JOBS PREDOMINANTLY DONE BY MEN.
THIS RECESSION, A PANDEMIC
RECESSION, IS ABOUT, SO FAR
ANYWAY, LEISURE, HOSPITALITY,
EDUCATION, AND EVEN IN SOME
PARTS OF HEALTH CARE, WOMEN
REPRESENT A MAJORITY OF THE
LABOR FORCE, SO THEY ARE BEING
HURT THE WORST THIS TIME AROUND.
>> YEAH.
>> IT IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF A
RECESSION, AND ONE THAT,
UNFORTUNATELY, IS HITTING SOME
OF THE PEOPLE WE LEAST WANT TO
HAVE HURT, PEOPLE AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE INCOME SCALE, MINORITYIES
AND WOMEN, DISPROPORTIONATELY.
AS WE START TO GET NUMBERS FROM
LATER IN THE DOWNTURN, APRIL
NUMBERS AND THE MAY NUMBERS AND
SO FORTH, YOU SHOULD EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF THE SAME.
>> STEVE, JUST ON THE POINT
WHERE WOMEN, THE FEMALE LABOR
FORCE IS BEING IMPACTED SO
GREATLY, I’VE BEEN LOOKING AT
THIS A LOT, AT KNOW YOUR VALUE.
IN FACT, KNOW YOUR VALUE IS
TAKING HITS.
THE FIGHT FOR EQUAL PAY, ALL
THESE THINGS WHICH SEEMED SO
IMPORTANT BEFORE THE PANDEMIC
HIT, DON’T SEEM ESSENTIAL.
YOU GET A SENSE THAT COMPANIES
ARE HANGING BY A THREAD.
A LOT OF THESE ISSUES THAT ARE
IMPORTANT, IN TERMS OF EVENING
OUT THE WORKS FORCE, IS NOW NOT
SEEMED AS AN ESSENTIAL
CONVERSATION.
EVERYBODY IS JUST TRYING TO HANG
ON.
IN TERMS OF JOBS THAT ARE
PREDOMINANTLY HELD BY WOMEN,
YOU’RE ALSO SAYING THAT THEY ARE
BEING HIT FAR MORE THAN MALE
JOBS.
>> YEAH.
SO THIS IS, AGAIN, SIMPLY THE
CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS DOWNTURN.
THAT THE INDUSTRIES THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY PEOPLE STAYING HOME,
BY PEOPLE NOT TRAVELING, BY
PEOPLE NOT GOING TO RESTAURANTS,
ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY WOMEN.
AS YOU SUGGESTED, IN THE CONTEXT
OF A PANDEMIC AND 25%
UNEMPLOYMENT, WE’RE NOT REALLY
IN A POSITION TO TURN THE FOCUS
ON GROUPS LIKE WOMEN, WHO HAVE
BEEN ADVERSELY AFFECTED.
THE ONLY WAY AT THE MOMENT THAT
WE ARE GOING TO REVERSE THIS AND
GET WOMEN BACK THEIR JOBS IS TO
SIMPLY IMPROVE THE OVERALL
ECONOMY.
THAT WILL REVERSE ALL OF THESE
TRENDS THAT ARE GOING SO
NEGATIVELY FOR SO MANY GROUPS.
WE HAVE TO GET THE ECONOMY GOING
AGAIN.
THAT, OBVIOUSLY, AT THE MOMENT,
IS NOT HAPPENING.
>> SO, STEVE, ON THE QUESTION OF
GETTING THE ECONOMY GOING AGAIN,
THE HOUSE WILL VOTE TODAY ON A
$3 TRILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE,
ANOTHER $3 TRILLION.
THE SENATE SAYS IT IS DEAD ON
ARRIVAL.
THEY WON’T TAKE ANYTHING UP,
PROBABLY, UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL
DAY.
NOW, WE’RE LOOKING OUT TO JUNE.
GIVEN THE FACT WE ALREADY HAVE
$3 TRILLION WORTH OF STIMULUS
THAT’S BEEN APPROPRIATED,
APPROVED, AND SENT OUT THE DOOR,
ON ITS WAY OUT THE DOOR, SOME OF
IT, DOES $3 TRILLION BRING
NUMBERS DOWN IN THE GRAPH, OR IS
THIS PROBLEM TOO BIG FOR THIS
INJECTION OF MONEY COMING OUT OF
WASHINGTON?
>> WE HAVE TO KEEP AT IT,
WILLIE.
THERE’S NO SUBSTITUTE FOR THE
GOVERNMENT CONTINUING TO USE ITS
ARSENAL TO TRY TO COMBAT THIS.
IT’S NOT GOING TO GO AWAY BY
ITSELF.
WE NEED TO DO MORE.
WHAT’S SURPRISING TO ME AT THE
MOMENT IS THAT THE WHITE HOUSE
HAS BEEN POO-POOING THE IDEA OF
DOING MORE.
YOU HAVE THIS -- I WOULDN’T CALL
IT A BATTLE OF WORDS -- BUT
CHAIRMAN POWELL SAID EARLIER
THIS WEEK THE ECONOMY WAS IN
TOUGH SHAPE AND CONGRESS SHOULD
THINK ABOUT DOING MORE.
THE TREASURY SECRETARY
IMMEDIATELY CAME BACK AND SAID,
"WELL, LET’S KIND OF WAIT AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS."
MITCH McCONNELL HAS BEEN SAYING
THIS, TOO.
THE GOVERNMENT WAITS TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS, THEN WE DO SOMETHING
ABOUT IT.
WE KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND A DEEP
RECESSION WE’LL HAVE FOR A LONG
TIME, AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO
DO MORE.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE EXTRA
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS FROM THE
STIMULUS PACKAGE RUN OUT IN
EIGHT WEEKS.
PEOPLE WON’T BE BACK TO WORK IN
EIGHT WEEKS.
WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT THAT?
ONE LAST POINT, I THINK IT’S
DON’T LET THE PERFECT BE THE
ENEMY OF THE GOOD.
THAT HAPPENED WITH THE STIMULUS
PACKAGE
PACKAGE.
IT WAS DONE FAST, WHICH WAS
VALUABLE AND IMPORTANT, BUT NOW
WE NEED TO BE THOUGHTFUL.
AMONG THE THINGS WE NEED TO BE
THOUGHTFUL ABOUT IS WHAT I CALL
REBUILDING AMERICA.
WHEN THIS PASSES, NOT ALL THE
JOBS ARE GOING TO BE THERE.
SOME OF THESE JOBS HAVE BEEN
ELIMINATED FOREVER, FOR VARIOUS
REASONS WE CAN TALK ABOUT.
THIS IS THE TIME WE HAVE TO BE
MORE THOUGHTFUL.
THAT REQUIRES PLANNING AND
GETTING TO WORK NOW ON ANOTHER
PIECE OF CONGRESSIONAL
LEGISLATION, EVEN IF MITCH
McCONNELL WANTING TO WAIT 30
DAYS TO SEE HOW THE LAST ONE IS
WORKING.
WE KNOW IT’LL HELP A BIT.
ABSOLUTELY, IT HELPS.
IT’S NOT GOING TO KEEP
UNEMPLOYMENT OR GET UNEMPLOYMENT
BACK DOWN TO WHERE IT WAS BEFORE
WE STARTED THIS.
>> AS I SAID, THE HOUSE WILL
VOTE TODAY ON A NEW PIECE OF
STIMULUS
STIMULUS, BUT THE REPUBLICANS
SAYING IT’LL BE DEAD ON ARRIVAL
WHEN IT REACHES THE BODY.
JIM VANDEHEI, THE DEVASTATING
NUMBERS WE GET EVERY THURSDAY AT
8:30 A.M. EASTERN TIME, THE
REPORT WE GOT A WEEK AGO, THIS
MORNING, ABOUT THE JOBLESS
REPORT IN APRIL, PUT THE
PRESSURE ON THE PRESIDENT TO SAY
THE THINGS HE’S SAYING ABOUT
OPEN THE ECONOMY.
HE’S LOOKING AT ALL THOSE
NUMBERS, NOT FROM A PUBLIC
HEALTH PERSPECTIVE BUT FROM AN
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE AND IN
TERMS OF HIS OWN REOF -ELECTION,
SAYING, "WE CAN’T GO ON LOIK
THIS
LIKE THIS.
WE HAVE TO REOPEN."
>> HE’S NOT WRONG ABOUT THE
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PEOPLE
STAYING AT HOME.
STEVE MNUCHIN SAID OVER THE
WEEKEND UNEMPLOYMENT COULD GET
NEAR 25%.
KEVIN HASSETT, ECONOMIC ADVISER,
SAID IT’LL BE AT LEAST 20%.
SAFE TO ASSUME A QUARTER OF
AMERICA IS GOING TO BE OUT OF
WORK.
AS RATTNER WAS POINTING OUT, A
LOT OF THE PEOPLE AREN’T GOING
TO BE COMING BACK TO WORK.
WHEN THE PAYCHECKS STOP, WHEN
THE CHECKS FROM THE GOVERNMENT
STOP COMING, WHEN YOUR
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS RUN OUT,
THEY’LL NEESED MONEY.
THE QUESTION FOR REPUBLICANS IS
WILL THEY DO ANOTHER STIMULUS?
I DON’T THINK THEY WILL NOW,
OLKS
OBVIOUSLY.
IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS THAT
HIGH, AND PEOPLE ARE COMING BACK
AT A SLOWER PACE, THEY’LL DO
MORE STIMULUS.
THEY DIDN’T HESITATE THE LAST
COUPLE TIMES.
MY ASSUMPTION IS THEY’LL DO IT
AGAIN.
THE PRESIDENT IS LOOKING AT THE
NUMBERS, AND HE IS PANICKING.
WE DOESN’T WANT TO GO INTO AN
ELECTION WITH THE ECONOMY NOT
GROWING AND 25% OF PEOPLE
UNEMPLOYED.
IT’LL BE THE IGBIGGEST CHALLENGE
THE COUNTRY HAS FACED IN A LONG
TIME.
CAN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
START TO GO BACK TO WORK?
I GUESS ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
GOOD NEWS IS WE CAN LOOK AT
CHINA, LOOK AT ITALY, OTHER
PLACES THAT WERE HIT BEFORE US
AND START TO GET SOME GUIDE IN
TERMS OF HOW CAN YOU PULL IT
OFF.
ALMOST EVERY EMPLOYER WHO IS
GOING TO PULL IT OFF, THEY’RE
NOT GOING TO COME BACK AT FULL
EMPLOYMENT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING HERE
TALKING LIKE I RUN A COMPANY, WE
HAVE 200 PEOPLE, WE FROZE 50
SLOTS.
I’M NOT GOING TO BRING THE 50
SLOTS BACK UNTIL PROBABLY FOR
SIX TO NINE MONTHS, UNTIL I KNOW
THAT THE ECONOMY IS HEADED IN A
POSITIVE DIRECTION.
I THINK THAT’S TRUE FOR EVERY
