It is no secret: Israel and Arabic countries
have never had a good relationship.
In fact, they have always had a pretty terrible
one…
3 wars, dozens of diplomatic conflicts, and
all kinds of accusations...
The Arab-israeli conflict was one of the “hottest”
in the second half of the 20th Century.
So, when you have problems with your neighbours,
you have a problem.
But if your neighbours are the largest oil
producers in the world…
Well then, you have a much bigger problem.
Especially when you consider that Israel has
always been considered something of an “energy
wasteland”... all attempts to find oil there
were unsuccessful.
It is true that, up until 1979, Israel had
a nice ally in the region...
Can you guess which country that was?
Well, you might be surprised to learn that
it was Iran…
Yep, thats right, in the times of the Shah
of Persia, Iran was a close ally of Israel.
After all they both had a common enemy: the
Arabic countries.
These countries had such a close relationship
that, in 1978, Israel offered the Shah of
Persia help building nuclear power plants.
Yes.
Really.
However, that all changed in 1979 with Khomeini's
revolution.
From that moment on, Israel and Iran went
from being good friends to being great enemies.
The thing is, that Israel has always had two
main weaknesses: the first is it’s bad relations
with the countries in the region, and the
second are the difficulties they’ve had
ensuring their oil supply... especially when
facing conflict.
The very Minister for Energy in Israel admitted
it in 2004:
"Israel's situation is complicated.
We don't have diplomatic relations with most
of the countries from which we import oil..."
Yosef Paritzky
However, it seems as if all that is about
to change…
GOD´S GIFT
“God´s gift”, that is the definition
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel´s Prime Minister,
gave to the latest discoveries made in the
Mediterranean Sea... discoveries which might
change forever the strategic reality of the
conflict region of the Middle East.
But, now you are probably wondering… what
might those discoveries be?
Pay attention to this map:
Each yellow piece represents a newly discovered
natural gas field.
And these are not small fields.
The last of them to be found, known as Leviathan,
is one of the largest reserves found in the
last few decades.
“If we were talking 10 years ago, 15 years
ago, and I said Israel would find a big amount
of energy and be almost totally independent
when it comes to energy, you would think that
I am crazy.
We were the country of milk and honey but
when it came to oil, we left it to our neighbors.”
Nati Birenboim, Tamuz Group.
However, everything started to change in the
year 2000 thanks to technology when a Texan
company, Noble Energy, found the first reserve
in the open sea known as Mari-B.
This first one was small, but it was a turning
point, because they knew: under the sea, on
the seabed, there were surprises waiting.
So Noble Energy kept exploring the bottom
of the sea and in 2009... they hit the jackpot…
They found the Tamar reserves, whose size
was significant.
In fact, this reserve provides Israel half
of their electricity requirements.
But a year later, in 2010, they didn’t just
hit the jackpot in a casino… they won the
lottery.
After spending “only” $100 million in
the exploration of the area, Noble Energy
hit Leviathan, an enormous field.
So, you’re probably starting to understand
what’s going on here a little better.
It is estimated that this reserve is larger
than all the ones found in countries like
Bolivia or Mexico.
And this is not the end of the story, because
most of the area is still unexplored.
In fact, geological studies have indicated
there is much more natural gas 5,000 meters
below the surface… oh, and there is also
oil.
Moreover, the government estimates the Mediterranean
could be holding a colossal wealth in natural
gas and oil, and that this falls within Israeli
waters.
In total, the government estimates there might
be more than 3 trillion cubic metres of gas
and 6 billion oil barrels.
Ok, but what exactly is “3 trillion cubic
metres”?
I mean, it’s not exactly easy to picture,
right?
Alright, so you can appreciate the size of
it, if these estimations are right, Israel,
a small country of around 8 million inhabitants,
could be one of the top 15 countries when
it comes to natural gas reserves, and in the
top 20 countries when it comes to oil.
And it is not just for Israel... exports have
already started.
At the end of 2016, Israeli companies reached
an agreement with the government of Jordan
to become its main supplier for the next 15
years.
It’s a contract worth more than $10 billion.
Between 50 and 60% of that money will go straight
to the coffers of the Israeli government.
That is right dear VisualPolitik friends,
in the next decades, the government of Israel
is going to get an income tens of billions
of dollars, and if estimations are confirmed,
we would be talking about hundreds of billions
of dollars.
And there is more...
It looks like Israel lacks continental oil,
but there could be massive quantities of shale
oil - the type of oil that can only be extracted
through fracking.
And they have already found the first reserves...
This means that not only is Israel going to
achieve energy independence, but it could
even become quite a new energy power.
Now you might know why Netanyahu has referred
to these fields as “God´s gift”.
A few years ago, Golda Meir, the ex-prime
minister, told this famous joke:
“Let me tell you something that we Israelis
have against Moses.
He took us 40 years through the desert in
order to bring us to the one spot in the Middle
East that has no oil!”
Golda Meir
Well, it looks like it is no longer the case.
Add to this discovery that Israel is one of
the most innovative countries in the world,
and it’s entirely possible it could soon
become one of the world’s wealthiest countries…
Oh, and it’s probably important that we
should also mention another player here…
Can you guess who were the first to have an
interest in these reserves?
The Russians.
Yes, Really.
Gazprom actually tried to buy them.
This all indicates that Israel could take
a part of the Russian gas market share in
Europe.
And you already know, energy means money…and
influence.
NEW ALLIES
The international situation of Israel has
always been controversial:
Wars, political conflicts, UN resolutions...
The Israeli Minister of Foreign Affair’s
has to work harder than Santa Claus on Christmas´
Eve.
Consider the last events in the UN:
“UN Security Council passes resolution demanding
end to Israeli settlements”
Well, despite all this, the truth is that
Israeli foreign policy is stronger than ever.
Israeli authorities are determined to put
an end to their dependence on the US.
And these recent gas and oil discoveries have
certainly helped.
For example, relations with their neighbouring
countries have improved quickly and by a great
amount:
In 2010, relations with Turkey broke down
almost completely when Israel approached the
“Freedom Flotilla”.
But now these relations are being healed.
This probably has a lot to do with the fact
that Erdogan´s country uses up massive quantities
of natural gas and their import agreements
with Russia will be over in just five years...
We already know how unstable relations are
lately between these two countries.
Things are also working out great with their
neighbours: Egypt and Jordan.
Israel hasn't just become Jordanian’s major
gas supplier, but the relations with Egypt
are working so well that Sameh Shoukry, the
Minister of foreign affairs, watched the footballs
European championship final in the residence
of the Israeli Prime Minister.
Further, the unimaginable could even be happening...
some are talking about reconciliation between
Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“Israel, Saudi Arabia Are Reportedly Negotiating
Economic Ties”
Israel is also bonding with Tsipras’ Greece,
which has surprisingly became a close ally.
In fact, the Israeli Air Forces train in Greece.
But the really major change has been from
the East…
And in this process India was key.
India has made Israel its second largest arms
supplier, behind Russia.
In the last decade, India has bought from
Israel more than $10 billion in military equipment.
Their relations are so good that, in 2015,
for the first time in history, the president
of India went to Israel on an official visit:
“Narendra Modi to become first Indian Prime
Minister to visit Israel”.
And just one more thing on this subject: up
until now, Greece and India had been very
critical of Israel as a consequence of the
situation with Palestine.
So you can imagine what a step this was for
the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
And India is not the only one.
Israel is also building a close relationship
with China and they are negotiating a free
trade agreement.
Besides, Chinese businessmen are making strong
investments in the country and they are even
building a port in the city of Ashdod as part
of their Silk Road Project.
Further, relationships are developing with
Vietnam, South Korea…
It seems that anywhere in Asia, Israel is
a total success.
And oh yes, we haven’t forgotten about Donald
Trump, who, for now, has committed to this:
Anyway, there is still a long way for Israel
to become an energy power, but if they do,
it will have a positive effect for the area’s
stability, which would be very good news indeed.
Israel is on its way to becoming a great country,
but there are still some issues to deal with,
like the conflict with Palestine.
Luckily, better relations with Arabic countries
could help a lot in that matter.
So, what do you think?
Will all this new energy wealth contribute
to the solution of the conflict?
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