This map represents the real backbone of the world’s economy.
This is one of the most important enclaves
on the planet: the strait of HORMUZ.
Maybe this is the first time you’ve heard
of this place.
Nevertheless, 1 out of 5 oil barrels bought
across the globe departs from here.
Most of the Gulf’s production comes from
this port.
As you can see, we have three countries here:
The United Arab Emirates, Oman and… the
Islamic Republic of IRAN.
So this place could become the battlefield
for a war between America and Iran.
And, believe me, this scenario is pretty likely.
In fact, the only reason there is no war between
these two countries now is because of a last-minute
decision taken by Donald Trump himself.
By the end of this video, you’ll understand
what’s going on in this very important region.
Let’s be clear here: oil is the lifeblood
of Today’s economy.
Maybe one day this will change.
But nowadays, whether we like it or not, we
need dinosaur juice for, virtually, everything.
And most of this crude is carried on tankers.
This explains why news like this is so worrisome.
Oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
requires an ‘international response,’
US envoy to Iran says
At the time this video was made, 6 oil tankers
have been attacked.
Somebody put limpet mines on the ship hulls.
Limpet mines are not very powerful explosives.
But they are destructive enough to make a
hole in the hull so the ship can’t set sail.
And now you might be wondering…
Who did planted those limpet mines?
At this moment, nobody knows for sure.
But Donald Trump believes this was Iran’s
doing.
Think about it, with the nuclear sanctions,
Iran can hardly sell its oil to anybody.
This is why, the White House believes, since
they can’t export crude, they decided to
close the strait of HORMUZ.
Add to this the fact that America hates Iran.
And Saudi Arabia hates Iran even more.
And Saudi Arabia is America’s best friend,
especially under Trump’s administration.
So… in other words, Washington doesn’t
need many excuses to attack Teheran.
And Iran is making it even easier for them.
In fact, in response to those attacks on the
tankers, America sent a drone to the Iranian
coast.
This drone was knocked down by a missile sent
by Iran.
The situation was extremely tense.
But it could get even worse.
Just think about it: so far we’re talking
about holes in ships and a knocked down drone
but… no human losses.
This is where Trump had to make a decision.
Should he answer the attack on the drone or
not?
An airstrike on the region would surely mean
the deaths of Iranian people.
And if America killed Iranians, Iran would
want to kill Americans.
And in that situation, a dead American soldier
would be more than enough for Donald Trump
to start a war against Iran.
That’s exactly when EURASIA GROUP, a consultancy,
said that there was a 40% chance that the
airstrike would start a war.
And then, against the odds, Donald Trump made
a sensible last-minute decision:
On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone
flying in International Waters.
We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last
night on 3 different sights when I asked,
how many will die.
150 people, sir, was the answer from a General.
10 minutes before the strike I stopped it.
--Donad Trump on twitter
So now the question is…
How did we get here?
Is a war between America and Iran really that
probable?
How responsible would Donald Trump be for
it?
And most important of all…
Who is attacking these tankers?
Today we are going to answer all of these
questions but, before we do, let’s take
a look back at the history.
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
On VisualPolitik, we have a series of videos
devoted to Iran sanctions.
If you want to understand all of this in depth,
you should check it out.
But I’ll make a quick summary for everyone
new to the channel.
For years, Iran was isolated from international
trade as a punishment for its nuclear program.
In the year 2015, Obama made a deal with Teheran.
Basically, the United States would lift most
of the trade embargo in exchange for Iran
stopping its manufacturing of nukes.
All of a sudden, Iran could restart its oil
exports.
But a year later, Trump came to office.
One of his first policies was to break that
nuclear deal with Iran.
According to him, Iran never stopped its nuclear
program despite what anybody said.
So, from one day to the next, America went
back to the embargo.
But Trump didn’t stop here!
His goal was to make the ENTIRE WORLD stop
trading with Iran, not only American companies.
This is where one debate started…
Why would a European company obey what Washington
said?
Well… months later, we can say that Trump
won that fight.
Most of the world has stopped investmenting
in Iran.
This includes Renault factories and French
oil rigs.
As you can imagine, this has had terrible
consequences for Iran’s economy.
Iran's Latest Inflation Figure Tops 50 Percent
- Food Prices Jump 85 Percent
Yes, you heard that right.
Despite Iran having the World’s fourth largest
oil reserves, nobody dares to buy from them.
So the country is on the edge of collapse.
And on top of that are all of the protests
against the government.
At this point, I know what many of you might
be thinking: is this the end of the Ayatollah
regime?
In fact, the opposite is true.
What is happening is what we predicted months
ago here, at VisualPolitik.
By the way… this is a good moment to remind
you that we publish brand new videos every
week, so you should subscribe to this channel
aaaaand hit that bell button!
When you hit the bell button, you receive
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the World’s politics.
So, as we said on that video months ago, in
Iranian politics, there are three main factions:
reformists, moderates and radicals.
Iran’s current president, HASSAN ROUHANI
is a moderate.
This is why he was willing to reach that nuclear
deal with America.
But after the conversations failed, his political
capital fell to its lowest point.
And who wins in this scenario?
Exactly!
The radicals.
Those who wanted to keep the nuclear program
at any cost and never wanted to talk with
the White House.
So, among these radicals, we have a very important
group, the ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard is an elite
group created in order to maintain the values
of the Ayatollah revolution.
They have state of the art weapons and world-class
training.
And, believe me, they have never been as powerful
as they are now.
Iran’s Elite Defense Force Finds New Funding
Sources as Tension Rises With U.S.
As you know, Iran plays its role as a regional
power and it participates in foreign Wars.
The group that trains the pro-Iranian warriors
in countries like Siria, Lebanon and Yemen
is this Revolutionary Guard.
In recent years, the troops trained by them
have increased by 20%.
For example, Hezbollah or the Houthi rebels
are so deadly because of this training.
And how does the Revolutionary Guard get its
funding?
With state monopolies.
A good share of Iran’s economy is in their
hands.
For example, the Iranian telecom company is
owned by them.
And in the past few years, many other businesses
are falling under their control.
Here’s another example: TOTAL is a French
oil company.
With the Trump sanctions, they had to abandon
all of their oil rigs.
So guess who’s taking them now?
Exactly!
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS DRILL INTO IRAN'S GAS
POTENTIAL
In other words, Iran’s economy is like a
cake.
Now the cake is getting smaller and smaller.
But the Revolutionary Guard is having a bigger
and bigger share of it.
At this moment, we can say they are more powerful
than the president himself.
And this explains news like this.
Iran nuclear deal: Enriched uranium limit
will be breached on 27 June
In other words: officially, Iran is restarting
its nuclear program.
If Trump thought that sanctions would push
the Ayatollah into the corner… his plan
has just backfired.
But wait a minute now!
If you thought the situation couldn’t get
any worse… pay attention to this next chapter.
THE FORGOTTEN WAR
War in Yemen has sort of become the Arab Vietnam.
Yemen is the only poor country in the Arabian
peninsula.
And this is the battlefield on which the Saudis
and the Iranians fight their proxy war.
Initially, this was meant to be a quick war.
At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia has the
third most expensive army on the planet, with
top-notch weaponry, American support and tons
of money.
But, as we explained in this video, Money
can buy good weapons but not a good strategy.
This is why those Houthi rebels are causing
such a big headache for the Saudis.
And… this is a hell of a problem!
Despite losing the war, the Saudis have enough
money to keep fighting without surrendering.
As long as America and the UK keep sending
weapons, Saudi Arabia will keep bombing.
And as long as Iran keeps supporting the Houthis,
the war in Yemen won’t budge.
Nowadays, the violence in this region is so
insane that it’s reached beyond Yemeni borders.
Yemen's Houthi rebels strike Saudi airport
This year, in 2019, the Houthi rebels attacked
a power plant and an oil pipe in Saudi territory.
But if you thought that was bad enough, here’s
news that has shaken the World’s economic
backbone.
Two oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman
At the time this video was made, 6 oil tankers
have been attacked.
Who orchestrated these attacks?
We still don’t know.
America thinks Iran is behind this.
And… it seems reasonable that Houthi rebels
did this.
These rebels have Iranian training but they
might be acting on their own behalf.
Not only that!
Remember that the ones who are training this
group are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
And those boys don’t need Teheran permission
to do anything.
In other words: perhaps Rouhani doesn’t
want to attack oil tankers.
But even if it was him… he might not be
able to control the Houthi rebels.
Anyway, this is just speculation.
The truth is, at the time we made this video,
nobody has claimed responsibility for these
attacks.
Meanwhile, America has sent 1500 troops to
the area.
This means that, so far, Uncle Sam can secure
the Strait of Hormuz.
But there are still big risks.
You see, no matter how much military presence
you have, there can always be somebody putting
a mine on one of those tankers.
OK, this doesn’t have to be a big attack.
Nobody dies.
But this mine is big enough to blast a hole
in the hull and stop the tanker from sailing.
What does this all mean?
That the companies that insure those tankers
might raise their premiums.
And this would have a direct effect on oil
prices worldwide.
All of this means that, whatever military
presence they send, America needs a diplomatic
solution.
But…
Iranians don’t trust Donald Trump anymore!
After all, he is the one who broke a previously
signed deal.
So who can do this job?
Let’s have a look, shall we?
OUR MAN IN TOKYO
Do you remember Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime
minister?
Anytime we talk about him on VisualPolitik
it’s because we’re talking about economics,
a crisis, or the Olympic games.
The truth is…
Japan has never been big on diplomacy… til
now.
In June 2019, Shinzo Abe travelled to Tehran
to hold negotiations on behalf of Donald Trump.
At the end of the day…
Who wouldn’t trust the Japanese?
Huh?
Just… look at his eyes!
Wouldn’t you have a beer with him?
Wouldn’t you add him on Facebook if he sent
you a friend request?
It’s uncle Shinzo, your cool Japanese friend!
So… did this plan work?
Well… the answer is a clear NO.
Two Japan-Bound Tankers Reportedly Attacked
Near Strait of Hormuz
That’s what I call not receiving somebody
with open arms…
So, in conclusion, Shinzo Abe returned home
really sad and Donad Trump started to do his
thing.
After the attack on those tankers, America
sent a drone to spy on the Iranian coast.
And what do you think happened?
Well, I told you before!
The Iranian army knocked it down.
And right at this moment, the tension was
higher than ever.
At this very moment, the consultancy, EURASIA
GROUP, raised the chance of war from 30% to
40%.
And it could get even worse.
What could Donald Trump have done after his
drone had been knocked down?
On one hand, he could make an air strike.
But this would probably end with the loss
of human lives.
And if, then, Iran answered with another air
strike, some American soldiers might have
died.
And, my dear viewers, if an American died
during this conflict… Trump would be almost
forced to start a war.
And now you might be wondering…
Does America really want a war here?
It would make no sense whatsoever.
First of all, as we’ve seen, Iran has a
really big and well trained army.
We’re talking about a country of 80M people.
This is twice as much as the population of
Iraq.
But not only that!
Do you really think anybody wants to have
a war at the Strait of Hormuz?
In this case, America and the rest of the
World has much more to lose than Iran.
At the end of the day, Iran cannot export
most of their oil.
And nobody wants such a big spike in the oil
market price.
So now the questions go to all of you…
Do you think that, despite everything, we’ll
end up witnessing a war between America and
Iran?
Do you think the Iran nuclear sanctions were
a good idea?
How would you solve this problem?
Please, leave your answer in the comment section
below.
Also, visit reconsider media.com, the podcast
that provided the vocals in this episode that
were not mine.
Don’t forget that we publish brand new videos
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I’ll see you next time.
