 
WORLD ON cbcnews.ca.
WE WILL OF COURSE BRING YOU TO 
THE PRIME MINISTER'S DAILY 
BRIEFING.
TODAY HE IS EXPECTED TO TALK 
ABOUT SOME OF THE MOST 
VULNERABLE CANADIANS IN THE 
MIDST OF THIS PANDEMIC.
SPECIFICALLY WE ARE HOPING TO 
HEAR MORE ABOUT HELP TO FOOD 
BANKS AND OTHER GROUPS.
SO THAT'S STILL TO COME AT 
AROUND 11:15.
THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE 
GOVERNMENT IS UNDER SOME GROWING
PRESSURE TO RELEASE MODELLING 
DATA ON HOW MANY COULD GET SICK 
AND DIE FROM COVID-19.
THE PRIME MINISTER SAID SOME OF 
THOSE NUMBERS WILL BE COMING OUT
SOON, THAT THEY'RE WORKING ON 
THE ANALYSIS OF THE RAW DATA 
WHICH IS READILY AVAILABLE, BUT 
WE'LL HEAR SOME OF THOSE NUMBERS
NEXT HOUR FROM PUBLIC HEALTH 
OFFICIALS IN ONTARIO.
PREMIER DOUG FORD SAID THE 
PROJECTIONS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO 
HEAR.
HE CALLS THEM GRIM.
CBC NEWS HAS OBTAINED SOME OF 
THE INFORMATION THAT WE WILL 
START TO HEAR NEXT HOUR.
CBC'S MIKE CRAWLEY JOINS US.
>> Reporter: WHAT I'VE LEARNED 
FROM MY SOURCES IS THAT THE 
MEASURES THAT ONTARIO HAS TAKEN 
SO FOR, THESE PROJECTIONS ARE 
GOING TO SHOW THAT, IN FACT, THE
PHYSICAL DISTANCING, THE STATE 
OF EMERGENCY, THE CLOSURE OF ALL
OF THESE BUSINESSES HAS 
PREVENTED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS 
OF CASES OF COVID-19 OVER THE 
COURSE OF THE COMING MONTHS AND 
BY DOING THAT HAS ALSO PREVENTED
THOUSANDS OF DEATHS.
THESE PROJECTIONS ARE ALSO GOING
TO SHOW IN THE COMING WEEKS IF 
ONTARIO DOES NOT TAKE STRICTER 
MEASURES RIGHT AWAY, A COUPLE 
THOUSAND MORE PEOPLE COULD STILL
DIE.
SO, IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU LOOK 
AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT, IF 
ONTARIO DOES IMPOSE EVEN 
STRICTER MEASURES TODAY, 
IMMEDIATELY, THE PROJECTIONS 
WOULD SUGGEST THAT HUNDREDS MORE
LIVES COULD ACTUALLY BE SAVED.
>> Rosemary: WE ARE EXPECTING AN
EXPLANATION AROUND THE MODELLING
AT NOON.
WE'RE GOING TO TALK A DOCTOR 
SHORTLY BECAUSE THESE ARE 
PROJECTIONS.
IT DOESN'T MEAN THIS IS THE WAY 
THE OUTCOME HAS TO HAPPEN.
THERE ARE IDEAS HOW THEY THINK 
IT WILL HAPPEN.
JUST TO COUCH ALL OF THOSE 
THINGS, MIKE, CAN YOU TELL US 
ANYTHING WHY THERE HAS BEEN THIS
SHIFT IN THE PREMIER'S THINKING 
AROUND RELEASING THE DATA?
THERE WAS A POINT EARLIER THIS 
WEEK WHERE HE WASN'T SURE HE 
WANTED TO, AND YESTERDAY HE WAS 
DEFINITIVE ABOUT IT?
>> Reporter: IT'S BEEN 
EPIDEMIOLOGISTS, THE PEOPLE WHO 
STUDY THE PATTERN OF HOW THE 
DISEASE SPREADS, WHO HAVE BEEN 
PUSHING THE PROVINCE TO GIVE 
MORE RAW DATA.
THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN MAKE THESE
PROJECTIONS IS BY SEEING 
DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT HOW 
MANY PEOPLE ARE CONTRACTING THE 
VIRUS, WHEN DID THEY CONTRACT 
IT, HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE BEING 
ADMITTED TO HOSPITAL.
IT'S BEEN A LITTLE BIT LIKE 
PULLING TEETH TO GET THAT 
INFORMATION FROM THE ONTARIO 
HEALTH MINISTRY.
BECAUSE ONTARIO'S TESTING REGIME
WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT 
COULD HAVE BEEN AND ALSO BECAUSE
OF SO MANY DELAYS IN THE TESTS, 
THE DATA WASN'T VERY GOOD, SO 
THE EPIDEMIOLOGISTS COULDN'T 
COME UP WITH THESE PROJECTIONS.
PREMIER DOUG FORD IS TALKING 
ABOUT THIS AS THE PROVINCE'S 
PROJECTIONS.
THAT WORK IS BEING DONE BY 
EXPERTS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 
EXPERTS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY WHO WORK
IN SOME OF THE INSTITUTIONS THAT
ARE BEHIND ME, THE UNIVERSITY OF
TORONTO, THERE'S A SCHOOL OF 
PUBLIC HEALTH AFFILIATED WITH 
THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO THAT'S
JUST BEHIND ME HERE IN TORONTO.
THEY HAVE BEEN WANTING TO CRUNCH
THESE NUMBERS.
THE INFORMATION THAT IS GOING TO
GET RELEASED BY THE PROVINCE IS 
THE WORK OF EPIDEMIOLOGISTS 
BASED ON THIS PROVINCIAL DATA.
NOW, I BELIEVE THAT THE DATA HAS
NOW BEEN MORE FULLY SHARED WITH 
THE SCIENTISTS, BUT THERE'S 
STILL A DESIRE TO HAVE MORE 
ACCURATE AND UP-TO-DATE 
INFORMATION TO COME UP WITH 
THESE PROJECTIONS. 
>> Rosemary: MIKE CRAWLEY, WE'LL
COME BACK TO YOU.
THANK YOU.
WE APPRECIATE IT.
CBC'S QUEEN'S PARK REPORTER MIKE
CRAWLEY IN TORONTO.
WE ARE AWAITING THE BRIEFING 
FROM PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS AT 
NOON.
WE ARE GOING TO BRING YOU THAT 
BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
NUMBERS TO THE AUDIENCE.
B.C. HAS ALREADY DONE THIS AND 
WE DID GIVE YOU A FULL COVERAGE 
OF THAT.
INSTEAD OF GOING TO CABINET 
MINISTERS FEDERALLY HERE TODAY, 
WE WILL GO TO ONTARIO.
DOUG FORD, THE PREMIER, WILL 
SPEAK AT 1:30.
FIRST LET ME GO TO ISAAC BOGOCH.
HE IS A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR TO 
CBC NEWS.
DOCTOR, I'LL GET YOU TO REACT TO
WHAT MIKE TOLD US THERE.
IT IS NOT OBVIOUSLY SPECIFIC 
NUMBERS.
IT IS TRENDS THAT SEEM TO 
SUGGEST THAT, ONE, WHAT ONTARIO 
IS DOING HAS BEEN WORKING BUT 
MORE NEEDS TO BE DONE.
WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO THAT?
>> Isaac Bogoch: I THINK 
HOPEFULLY THAT'S THE MESSAGE 
FROM PREMIER FORD.
I MEAN, WE'VE HEARD HIM SPEAK 
YESTERDAY TALKING ABOUT RADICAL 
TRANSPARENCY WITH THE DATA, 
FIGURES, AND THE PROJECTION, BUT
THAT'S THE RIGHT APPROACH.
THERE'S NO SENSE SUGAR COATING 
IT.
THE CITIZENS NEED TO KNOW WHAT 
WE'RE IN FOR.
HE USED WORDS LIKE THERE ARE 
STARK FIGURES AND IT WILL BE A 
SOBERING DISCUSSION.
THAT'S COMPLETELY FAIR.
WE NEED TO KNOW WHAT WE'RE UP 
AGAINST, HOW WE'RE DOING, AND 
WHAT WE NEED TO IMPROVE TO 
REALLY PROTECT PEOPLE IN THIS 
PROVINCE. 
>> Rosemary: TELL US THE 
DISADVANTAGES OF EPIDEMIOLOGY 
MODELLING.
WHAT THE THINGS THAT IT CAN'T 
DO?
>> Isaac Bogoch: WELL, MODELS 
ARE REALLY -- OF COURSE THERE 
ARE GOING TO BE STRENGTHS AND 
WEAKNESSES WITH THE MODELS AND 
CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS, FOR 
EXAMPLE, THAT YOU MAKE WITH 
MODELS.
SO THERE MIGHT BE SOME DEGREES 
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MANY OF 
THESE PROJECTIONS.
THAT'S OKAY.
THAT'S EXPECTED.
THIS IS NOT A CRYSTAL BALL, BUT 
IT DOES TELL YOU WITHIN SOME 
RANGE OF CERTAINTY WHERE YOU'RE 
GOING TO LAND.
YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S EXTREMELY
IMPORTANT THAT WE KNOW WHAT THAT
IS.
THIS IS THE KIND OF SITUATION 
WHERE I THINK MORE INFORMATION 
IS BETTER, BUT OF COURSE IT'S 
NOT JUST MORE INFORMATION.
IT'S MORE INFORMATION PLACED IN 
THE APPROPRIATE CONTEXT.
SO LET'S NOT JUST DISCUSS WHAT 
THE NUMBERS ARE, LET'S NOT JUST 
DISCUSS WHAT THE MODELS PROJECT.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE STRENGTHS 
AND WEAKNESSES OF THE MODEL AND 
HOW WE INTERPRET THAT DATA IN 
OUR DAY-TO-DAY LIVES.
ARE WE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH 
PHYSICAL DISTANCING.
DO WE NEED TO DO MORE OR TAKE 
ADDITIONAL MEASURES TO PREVENT 
TRANSMISSION IN COMMUNITY 
SETTINGS.
THESE ARE THE QUESTIONS THAT 
WILL BE ADDRESSED AT THE 
MEETING.
I LOOK FORWARD TO IT.
I DON'T THINK ANYONE WOULD BE 
OPPOSED TO RADICAL TRANSPARENCY 
AT TIMES LIKE THIS.
>> Rosemary: YOU GET NO ARGUMENT
FROM A JOURNALIST AT A TIME LIKE
THIS.
DR. ISAAC BOGOCH, WE'LL LEAVE 
YOU THERE.
HE IS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE 
SPECIALIST.
I WANT TO BRING IN "POWER & 
POLITICS" HOST VASSY KAPELOS AND
CATHARINE CULLEN.
I SHOULD POINT OUT THAT THE 
INFORMATION IS RELIANT ON THE 
PROVINCE'S INFORMATION.
THERE IS A DEPENDENCY ON HOW 
MUCH THEY CAN GIVE, BUT THERE 
ARE CALLS FOR THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT TO DO MORE.
>> Vassy: THERE HAVE BEEN CALLS 
ALL WEEK AND THE PRIME MINISTER 
RESPONDED YESTERDAY BY SAYING 
THE ANALYSIS OF THAT RAW DATA, 
AS YOU POINTED OUT, WOULD BE 
READILY AVAILABLE AND COMING 
SOON.
HE WOULD NOT QUALIFY WHAT SOON 
MEANS.
WE DON'T KNOW HOW QUICKLY THAT 
WILL COME OUT, BUT IT IS 
MIRRORING WHAT WE'RE SEEING FROM
ONTARIO.
THEY'RE GETTING THE SAME 
QUESTIONS THAT PREMIER FORD WAS 
EARLIER THIS WEEK.
AND THAT WAS CAN YOU PROVIDE FOR
US THE RAW DATA, WHAT DOES THE 
MODELLING SHOW.
THE PRIME MINISTER CONTINUES TO 
POINT OUT THAT THOSE SCENARIOS 
WILL DEFINITELY BE IMPACTED ON 
THE BEHAVIOURS THAT WE EXHIBIT 
AND FOLLOW THE RULES OF PHYSICAL
DISTANCING.
THE PRESSURE IS ON THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT TO RELEASE THOSE 
NUMBERS.
I WOULD POINT OUT, AS YOU SAID, 
THAT A LOT OF THAT ANALYSIS 
DEPENDS ON THE RAW DATA THAT 
THEY GET FROM VARIOUS PROVINCES.
SOME PROVINCES LIKE ONTARIO HAVE
THAT DATA TO PRODUCE OR THE 
ANALYSIS OF IT TODAY.
I SPOKE WITH BLAINE HIGGS, THE 
PREMIER OF NEW BRUNSWICK LAST 
NIGHT, AND HE WON'T HAVE ENOUGH 
CASES IN HIS PROVINCE UNTIL NEXT
WEEK TO PROVIDE TO THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT.
THAT GIVES US A SENSE WHEN THE 
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE 
TO PROVIDE THE MODEL.
IF THEY DON'T HAVE NUMBERS FROM 
NEW BRUNSWICK, IT MAY BE HARD TO
PAINT A COUNTRY-WIDE PICTURE.
TIMELINES ARE AN ISSUE FOR THE 
PRIME MINISTER.
I GUESS BASED ON THE MODELLING 
WE'RE GOING TO HEAR FROM PREMIER
FORD, THERE WILL BE MORE 
QUESTIONS FOR THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT AS FAR AS THAT IS 
CONCERNED.
>> Rosemary: WE KNOW THAT IT 
CAME UP ON THE CALL THE PRIME 
MINISTER HAD WITH THE PREMIERS.
I WANT TO TALK ABOUT ANOTHER 
ISSUE AROUND PERSONAL PROTECTIVE
EQUIPMENT IN RELATION TO 
SOMETHING THAT THE WHITE HOUSE 
IS TRYING TO DO WITH A PRIVATE 
COMPANY 3M WHO IS PROBABLY THE 
BIGGEST PRODUCER OF N95 MASKS, 
THOSE HIGH-GRADE MEDICAL 
FILTERING MASKS THAT ARE USED IN
HOSPITALS THAT ARE SO CRITICAL 
DURING A PANDEMIC.
FOR THAT, I WILL GO TO CATHARINE
CULLEN.
THIS IS AN ODD STORY, BUT ONE 
THAT THE PRIME MINISTER WILL GET
ASKED ABOUT.
>> 3M IN THE UNITED STATES 
PUTTING OUT A STATEMENT THAT IT 
IS SOUNDING THE ALARM WHAT IS 
HAPPENING WITH THE MASKS.
IT SAYS THE DEFENCE PRODUCTION 
ACT HAS BEEN INVOKED AND THEY 
ARE GOING TO REQUIRE 3M TO 
PRIORITIZE SENDING THOSE TO 
FEMA.
IN THE STATEMENT 3M GOES ON TO 
SAY THE ADMINISTRATION HAS ALSO 
REQUESTED, I THINK REQUESTED 
RATHER THAN REQUIRED IS 
IMPORTANT, THE ADMINISTRATION 
HAS REQUESTED THAT 3M CEASE 
EXPORTING THOSE MASKS THAT THEY 
CURRENTLY MANUFACTURE IN THE 
UNITED STATES TO CANADA AND 
LATIN AMERICA.
3M THINKS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
HUMANITARIAN IMPLICATION OF 
THAT.
THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF THESE 
MASKS IN CANADA AND IN LATIN 
AMERICA.
IF 3M STOPS EXPORTING, THEY FEEL
OTHER COUNTRIES COULD RETALIATE.
THIS IS ALL PART OF A BIGGER 
PICTURE, ROSEMARY.
THERE IS ALSO A STORY OUT OF THE
"ASSOCIATED PRESS" TO DO WITH 
MASKS.
A GERMAN OFFICIAL SAYING THE 
U.S. ARE EMPLOYING WILD WEST 
METHODS.
THERE WERE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS
OF MASKS DESTINED FOR BERLIN 
POLICE AND THE U.S. MANAGED TO 
REROUTE THEM.
WE KNOW THERE'S BEEN AN ONGOING 
DISCUSSION ABOUT PROVINCES THAT 
ARE PARTICULARLY IN NEED HAVING 
ENOUGH PERSONAL PROTECTIVE 
EQUIPMENT.
WE KNOW FROM OUR PROVINCIAL 
SOURCES THAT THE CONVERSATION 
LAST NIGHT WITH THE PRIME 
MINISTER AND THE PREMIERS, THAT 
ALL THE PROVINCES AGREED THAT 
THE PROVINCES THAT ARE MOST IN 
NEED RIGHT NOW SHOULD HAVE 
PRIORITY ACCESS TO FEDERAL 
SUPPLIES.
IF THERE ARE PROVINCES, AND WE 
KNOW THAT THERE ARE, TALKING 
ABOUT PERHAPS ONLY HAVING A FEW 
DAYS' WORTH OF SUPPLIES LEFT, 
THEY WOULD BE AT THE FRONT OF 
THE QUEUE.
BUT CERTAINLY THE PRIME MINISTER
WILL FACE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT 
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE OF MOVES 
LIKE THIS AND WHAT CANADA CAN DO
TO CONVINCE THE U.S. TO FRANKLY 
SHARE.
>> Rosemary: I GUESS THERE'S 
SOME QUESTIONS AROUND WHETHER 
THE DEFENCE ACT THAT THE 
UNITED STATES IS USING AROUND 
PROCUREMENT IN THAT COUNTRY 
COULD FORCE THE HAND OF 3M IN 
THE UNITED STATES.
THERE IS A STATEMENT FROM 3M 
CANADA IN RELATION TO THIS, 
SAYING THEY ARE AWARE OF THE 
MEMO FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE 
UNITED STATES AND SAYING "OUR 
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE 
SAFETY OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS AND
FIRST RESPONDERS DURING THIS 
CRISIS.
THEY ARE LOOKING AT MEETING THE 
DOMESTIC NEEDS."
THERE IS A 3M CANADA.
THEY ARE LOOKING AT THIS MOVE 
FROM THE UNITED STATES.
I'M SURE THE PRIME MINISTER WILL
GET QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT.
SOME OTHER SAD NEWS, THERE ARE 
FOUR MORE PEOPLE WHO HAVE DIED 
IN BOBCAYGEON IN THE PINECREST 
LONG-TERM CARE CENTRE.
THAT IS A TOTAL NOW OF 20 
RESIDENTS WHO HAVE DIED IN THE 
PINECREST NURSING HOME AND I 
BELIEVE ONE VOLUNTEER.
WE TALKED TO ONE OF THE DOCTORS 
WHO WAS AN ATTENDING PHYSICIAN 
THERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
THIS IS WHAT HE FEARED THAT THIS
WOULD CONTINUE AND IT WAS THE 
FEAR OF PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS 
THAT ONCE THIS GETS INSIDE THESE
FACILITIES WITH LIMITED CAPACITY
FOR ISOLATING PEOPLE THAT IT'S 
HARD TO PREVENT FATALITIES.
FOUR MORE DEAD AT THE PINECREST 
LONG-TERM NURSING HOME IN 
BOBCAYGEON, ONTARIO.
VASSY, I'LL GO BACK TO YOU AND 
THIS EQUIPMENT ISSUE WITH THE 
UNITED STATES.
>> Vassy: THIS IS A TOUGH ONE, 
ROSIE.
AS CATHARINE POINTS OUT, THERE 
WAS ALREADY A BACKDROP AGAINST 
WHICH THIS WAS HAPPENING AND THE
NEED FOR SUPPLIES IN THIS 
COUNTRY.
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HOW 
VARIOUS PROVINCES HAVE VARIOUS 
NEEDS AND SOME, INCLUDING QUÉBEC
WHO HAS A HUGE NEED, IS SAY 
ISSING THERE IS ONLY DAYS LEFT 
UNTIL THEY RUN OUT OF SOME OF 
THESE CRUCIAL SUPPLIES.
THIS FURTHER COMPLICATES THINGS.
WE HAD BEEN HEARING ABOUT 
INCREASED COMPETITION AROUND THE
WORLD.
THE REPORT ABOUT SUPPLIES BEING 
CUT OFF TO BE SHIPPED TO THE 
UNITED STATES IS AN ADDITIONAL 
LAYER.
EVEN WHEN YOU BRING IN 3M, THE 
STATEMENT YOU READ OUT, THERE IS
SOME WILL THERE OBVIOUSLY.
BUT I THINK THE QUESTION IS HOW 
ARE THEY ABLE TO CONTINUE 
DISTRIBUTING, FOR EXAMPLE, N95 
MASKS IN CANADA IN THE FACE OF 
THE PRESIDENT INVOKING THIS ACT.
IT SOUNDS LIKE THEY'RE NOT SURE 
HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT.
THEY RAISED THE ISSUE OF THE 
HUMANITARIAN QUESTIONS THAT IT 
RAISES IF THEY STOP DISTRIBUTING
THINGS LIKE THAT IN CANADA.
THE LAW WAS CREATED IN 1950.
IT'S A WAR TIME LAW.
HOW DOES IT APPLY IN THIS 
CONTEXT AND WHAT IMPLICATIONS 
DOES IT HAVE.
I KNOW IN CONVERSATIONS WITH 
THOSE THAT WORK FOR THE PRIME 
MINISTER, THEY ARE SEIZED WITH 
THIS ISSUE AND CONCERNED ABOUT 
THE POSSIBLE IMPACT.
>> Rosemary: HERE IS THE PRIME 
MINISTER OF CANADA.
>> Prime Minister Justin 
Trudeau: BEFORE WE GET INTO 
THINGS, I HAVE TWO PIECES OF 
NEWS TO SHARE WITH EVERYONE.
THE FIRST ONE IS THE 
DISTRIBUTION OF CRITICAL 
EQUIPMENT TO PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES.
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, OUR 
GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN WORKING 
CLOSELY WITH INDUSTRY TO PRODUCE
THE SUPPLIES OUR HEALTHCARE 
WORKERS NEED, LIKE MASKS, FACE 
SHIELDS, GOWNS, VENTILATORS, AND
TEST KITS.
TODAY I CAN ANNOUNCE THAT OUR 
GOVERNMENT HAS SIGNED AN 
AGREEMENT WITH AMAZON CANADA TO 
MANAGE THE DISTRIBUTION OF THIS 
EQUIPMENT TO THE PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] 
[SPEAKING FRENCH] 
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] -- SO I CAN CONFIRM
THAT THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES 
WILL BE THERE FOR -- A FEW WEEKS
NOW COVID-19 
[ Indiscernible ] -- THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF COVID-19, BUT 
SOME FAMILIES ARE HAVING AN EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT TIME.
IF YOU LOST YOUR JOB, IF YOU'RE 
NO LONGER RECEIVING A PAYCHEQUE,
YOU'RE WONDERING NOT ONLY HOW 
YOU CAN PAY YOUR BILLS AT THE 
END OF THE MONTH, BUT HOW YOU 
CAN BUY GROCERY STORES THE NEXT 
DAY.
[End of Translation] THERE ARE 
FOOD BANKS THAT CAN HELP.
LIKE MOST ORGANIZATIONS, FOOD 
BANKS ARE FACING NEW CHALLENGES 
BECAUSE OF THIS PANDEMIC.
WITH EVERYONE STAYING HOME, THEY
HAVE FEWER VOLUNTEERS.
A DIFFICULT ECONOMIC CLIMATE 
MEANS THEY ARE RECEIVING FEWER 
DONATION THAN THEY NORMALLY 
WOULD WHILE DEMAND RISES.
THE STAFF AT THE NEIGHBOUR TO 
NEIGHBOUR FOOD BANK IN HAMILTON 
TOLD US THEY ARE GETTING MORE 
AND MORE CALLS AND IT IS 
OVERWHELMING FOR THE VOLUNTEERS 
SPREAD THIN AND WORKING OVERTIME
TO HELP THEIR COMMUNITY.
THE WORK BEING DONE BY THEIR 
FOOD BANKS AND THEIR VOLUNTEERS 
IS ESSENTIAL, SO THERE'S NO 
QUESTION THAT THEY NEED MORE 
SUPPORT DURING THIS CRISIS.
IF YOU HAVE THE TIME AND ABILITY
TO HELP, REACH OUT TO YOUR LOCAL
FOOD BANK AND ASK THEM HOW YOU 
CAN HELP THEM.
AT THE SAME TIME, I'M ANNOUNCING
THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL PROVIDE
$100 MILLION TO MEET THE URGENT 
FOOD NEEDS OF VULNERABLE 
CANADIANS, INCLUDING THOSE 
LIVING IN INDIGENOUS AND 
NORTHERN COMMUNITIES.
THIS MONEY WILL ENSURE THAT 
ORGANIZATIONS WITH BUY AND 
DELIVER FOOD TO THOSE WHO NEED 
IT THE MOST.
IT WILL HELP SUPPORT 
ORGANIZATIONS THAT YOU MAY 
ALREADY KNOW, LIKE FOOD BANKS 
CANADA, BREAKFAST CLUB, THE 
SALVATION ARMY, AND MANY MORE.
ON THAT NOTE, I DO WANT TO TAKE 
A MOMENT TO THANK ALL VOLUNTEERS
AND ORGANIZERS.
THANK YOU FOR FEEDING OUR 
COMMUNITIES.
WE SEE YOU AND WE ARE GRATEFUL 
FOR THE INCREDIBLE, TIRELESS 
WORK YOU DO EVEN IN THESE 
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT 
CIRCUMSTANCES, ESPECIALLY IN 
THESE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT 
CIRCUMSTANCES.
YOU ARE DOING ESSENTIAL WORK FOR
OUR MOST VULNERABLE.
YOU ARE SHOWING WHAT IT MEANS TO
BE CANADIAN, TO BE THERE FOR 
EACH OTHER IN TIMES OF 
DIFFICULTY.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] TODAY I AM 
ANNOUNCING THAT THE GOVERNMENT 
WILL INVEST $100 MILLION TO MEET
THE URGENT FOOD NEEDS OF THE 
MOST VULNERABLE, INCLUDING THOSE
LIVING IN NORTHERN AND 
INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES.
THIS MONEY WILL HELP FOOD BANKS 
TO BUY AND DELIVER PROVISIONS TO
THOSE WHO NEED THEM.
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE 
PANDEMIC, FOOD BANKS HAVE BEEN 
FACING SPECIFIC CHALLENGES.
FOR EXAMPLE, MOST OF THEIR 
VOLUNTEERS ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE 
RETIREES AND WHO ARE MORE AT 
RISK OF BEING INFECTED.
THAT MEANS FEWER PEOPLE TO SERVE
A LARGER CLIENTELE.
FOOD BANKS AND CHARITIES ARE 
DOING AN INCREDIBLE JOB IN OUR 
COMMUNITIES.
AND THEY DO SO ALL YEAR LONG.
I'M THINKING OF THE TOWN OF 
VILIER THAT I'M FAMILIAR WITH 
WHERE PEOPLE ARE WORKING HARD TO
HELP THEIR NEIGHBOURS IN MY 
RIDING OF PAPINEAU.
IF YOU ARE ABLE TO HELP, I 
INVITE YOU TO GET IN TOUCH WITH 
THESE ORGANIZATIONS IN YOUR 
NEIGHBOURHOOD.
THEY NEED YOUR HELP.
WITH TODAY'S ANNOUNCEMENT, WE 
ARE SUPPORTING A NUMBER OF 
ORGANIZATIONS YOU MAY ALREADY 
KNOW, THE BREAKFAST CLUB AND THE
SALVATION ARMY.
IN FACT, I WANT TO TAKE THIS 
OPPORTUNITY TO THANK ALL THE 
VOLUNTEERS AND ORGANIZATIONS FOR
THEIR EXCELLENT WORK.
YOU ARE FEEDING OUR COMMUNITIES 
AND WE VERY MUCH APPRECIATE 
EVERYTHING YOU ARE DOING.
IT'S NOT EASY.
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF DEMAND.
YOU'RE LIMITED IN TERMS OF YOUR 
RESOURCES, BUT I KNOW YOU WILL 
CONTINUE TO HELP YOUR NEIGHBOURS
AND TO HELP PEOPLE WHO NEED 
HELP.
THAT'S WHAT WE DO AT DIFFICULT 
TIMES.
WE'RE THERE FOR EACH OTHER AND 
WE WILL BE THERE FOR YOU.
I KNOW THERE ARE MANY OF YOU WHO
ARE GOING THROUGH DIFFICULT 
TIMES.
THE PANDEMIC IS CREATING A LOT 
OF UNCERTAINTY AND YOU'RE 
WORRIED.
BUT I WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT YOUR
GOVERNMENT WILL NOT ABANDON YOU.
WE ARE INVESTING IN FOOD BANKS 
SO YOU CAN MEET THE URGENT NEEDS
OF YOUR FAMILY DURING THIS 
CRISIS.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE 
OFFERING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO
PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS 
OR PAYCHEQUES BECAUSE OF 
COVID-19.
WE ARE INTRODUCING THE CANADA 
EMERGENCY RESPONSE BENEFIT THAT 
WILL GIVE YOU $2,000 A MONTH.
OUR GOVERNMENT WILL ALSO 
INCREASE THE G.S.T. CREDIT TO 
HELP THOSE WHOSE INCOME IS LOW 
OR MODEST.
WE SAID THAT ADULTS WHO ARE 
ELIGIBLE WOULD RECEIVE UP TO 
$300 OR $150 PER CHILD STARTING 
IN MAY.
I CAN NOW CONFIRM THEY WILL 
RECEIVE THAT HELP THIS MONTH IN 
APRIL.
[End of Translation] OUR 
GOVERNMENT IS SUPPLEMENTING THE 
G.S.T. CREDIT TO HELP LOW-INCOME
PEOPLE.
WE SAID IN MAY EVERY QUALIFYING 
ADULT WOULD RECEIVE UP TO $300 
WITH $150 FOR EACH CHILD.
BUT I CAN NOW CONFIRM THAT HELP 
IS COMING SOONER, THIS MONTH, 
APRIL, INSTEAD.
OUR GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN WORKING 
WITH MAJOR BANKS TO DELIVER 
BENEFITS, INCLUDING THE CERB, 
THROUGH DIRECT DEPOSIT.
EFFECTIVE TODAY PEOPLE SHOULD 
VISIT THEIR BANK'S WEBSITE FOR 
INFORMATION ON HOW TO ENROLL FOR
DIRECT DEPOSIT IF THEY HAVEN'T 
ALREADY.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] I KNOW MANY OF YOU 
WOULD LIKE TO KNOW HOW MUCH TIME
THIS WILL LIST.
YOU WANT TO KNOW WHEN YOU CAN 
SEE YOUR FRIENDS, HUG YOUR 
GRANDPARENTS, OR HAVE PEOPLE 
OVER FOR DINNER.
LAST NIGHT I HAD A DISCUSSION 
WITH THE PREMIERS OF THE 
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES AND WE
TALKED ABOUT DATA SHARING AND 
PROJECTIONS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MANY MORE 
PEOPLE ARE BEING TESTED AND 
EXPERTS HAVE NEW DATA TO 
ANALYZE.
THE PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES 
ARE UPDATING THEIR INFORMATION 
AND WILL BE PUBLISHING THE 
LATEST DATA VERY SOON.
ON OUR SIDE, WE'RE WORKING HARD 
TO VERIFY THE LATEST FIGURES SO 
WE CAN PUT THEM ONLINE.
YOU CAN CONSULT 
canada.ca/coronavirus TO GET THE
BEST UPDATED INFORMATION ABOUT 
THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS.
I'D LIKE TO BE ABLE TO TELL YOU 
EXACTLY WHEN ALL OF THIS WILL BE
OVER.
I OFTEN TALK ABOUT WEEKS AND 
EVEN MONTHS, BUT THE REALITY IS 
THAT IT WILL DEPEND ON EACH OF 
US.
THE BEST WAY TO MINIMIZE THE 
IMPACT OF COVID-19 IS TO 
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PUBLIC HEALTH
DIRECTIVES.
YOU KNOW THEM.
STAY HOME AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
LIMIT YOUR MOVEMENTS.
IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST LEAVE 
HOME, KEEP A DISTANCE OF 2 
METRES FROM OTHER PEOPLE.
CONTINUE TO DO YOUR PART AND I 
PROMISE YOU, WE'LL COME THROUGH 
THIS.
I WOULD LIKE TO CLOSE TODAY WITH
A MESSAGE FOR YOUNG PEOPLE AND 
CHILDREN.
ON SUNDAY I WILL BE HOLDING A 
VIDEO CONFERENCE ONLINE WITH 
DR. TAM.
YOU CAN SEND ME YOUR QUESTIONS 
TODAY AT THE RADIO-CANADA 
WEBSITE AND I WILL BE LOOKING 
FORWARD TO ANSWERING YOUR 
QUESTIONS ON SUNDAY.
[End of Translation] ON SUNDAY, 
I'LL BE HOLDING A VIDEO 
CONFERENCE FOCUSED ON YOU WITH 
DR. TAM.
SO SEND ME YOUR QUESTIONS 
THROUGH CBC KIDS WEBSITE BY THE 
END OF THE DAY AND I LOOK 
FORWARD TO ANSWERING YOU THIS 
WEEKEND.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] THANK YOU ALL VERY 
MUCH.
[End of Translation]. 
>> THANK YOU, PRIME MINISTER.
WE'LL GO TO THE PHONE LINES FOR 
ONE QUESTION AND A FOLLOW UP.
>> Question: HELLO, PRIME 
MINISTER.
I HAVE A QUESTION REGARDING 
[ Indiscernible ] -- 
>> Answer: I'M SORRY, KATE, YOUR
LINE IS CUTTING OUT A LITTLE 
BIT.
CAN YOU TRY AND SPEAK CLOSER TO 
THE PHONE AND A LITTLE MORE 
CLEARLY.
>> Question: YES, NO PROBLEM.
CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?
>> Answer: THAT'S BETTER.
>> Question: MY QUESTION IS 
REGARDING THE OPEC MEETING ON 
MONDAY.
IS CANADA PLANNING TO MEET WITH 
[ Indiscernible ] -- OPEC 
[ Indiscernible ] -- ACCORDING 
TO THE OUTPUT LEVELS AND WHAT 
[ Indiscernible ] LOOK LIKE.
>> Answer: I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT
WE HAVE BEEN COORDINATING 
CLOSELY WITH THE UNITED STATES 
AND OTHER ALLIES IN LOOKING AT 
THE CHALLENGES FACED BY OPEC 
RIGHT NOW.
WE RECOGNIZE THAT THESE 
CATASTROPHICALLY LOW OIL PRICES 
ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON MANY 
PEOPLE'S ECONOMIES AND, INDEED, 
ON CANADIAN OIL SECTORS.
WE'RE TRYING TO COORDINATE TO 
MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE NOT FACING
THE KINDS OF CHALLENGES IN OUR 
ECONOMY.
WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WORKERS 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK 
INTERNATIONALLY TO TRY TO IMPACT
ON THE DIFFICULT DECISIONS MADE 
BY OPEC OVER THE PAST WEEKS.
WE WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ON THAT.
>> Question: AND WHAT IS 
HAPPENING WITH THE SUPPORT 
PACKAGE FOR THE OIL SECTOR WE'VE
BEEN HEARING ABOUT?
>> Answer: WE'RE CONTINUING TO 
WORK WITH PROVINCES, WITH 
PARTICULARLY THE PROVINCE OF 
ALBERTA, TO ENSURE THAT WE'RE 
GIVING SUPPORT TO WORKERS WHO 
ARE IN PARTICULARLY DISTRESSED 
INDUSTRIES.
THE WAGE SUBSIDY AND THE CANADA 
EMERGENCY RESPONSE BENEFIT WILL 
BE OF HELP TO PEOPLE RIGHT 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING IN
THE OIL SECTOR, BUT WE RECOGNIZE
THAT CERTAIN INDUSTRIES ARE 
FACING MUCH GREATER STRESSES 
THAN OTHERS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH 
THAT WITH THE PROVINCES.
I CAN HIGHLIGHT THAT IN OUR 
CONVERSATION LAST NIGHT, THE 
PREMIERS AND I DID DISCUSS THIS.
I HEARD DIRECTLY FROM PREMIER 
KENNEY AND OTHERS ON THE 
IMPORTANCE OF SUPPORT TO THE OIL
SECTOR AND WE'RE GOING TO 
CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THEM.
>> THANK YOU.
NEXT QUESTION.
>> Question: [Speaking French] 
[Voice of Interpreter] GOOD 
MORNING, MR. TRUDEAU.
WE ARE HEARING THAT THE U.S. 
ADMINISTRATION HAS ASKED 3M TO 
STOP EXPORTING N95 MASKS TO 
CANADA.
CAN YOU GIVE US MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT WHAT YOU KNOW.
WERE YOU AWARE OF THAT DECISION?
AND HOW WILL CANADA RESPOND TO 
IT?
>> Answer: WELL, WE ARE WORKING 
VERY CLOSELY WITH THE 
UNITED STATES AT THIS TIME SO 
THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT WE ALREADY 
KNOW VERY WELL, WHICH IS THAT 
TRADE BETWEEN CANADA AND THE 
U.S. GOES IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, 
PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO 
ESSENTIAL GOODS AND MEDICAL 
PERSONNEL.
THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF NURSES IN
WINDSOR WHO WORK IN DETROIT 
EVERY SINGLE DAY.
AMERICANS DEPEND ON THEM.
THERE ARE MEDICAL PRODUCTS AND 
OTHER ESSENTIAL GOODS THAT MOVE 
ACROSS THE BORDER IN BOTH 
DIRECTIONS.
IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE FOR BOTH 
OF OUR COUNTRIES TO LIMIT 
ACCESS -- EITHER ONE'S ACCESS TO
GOODS AND ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL.
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT WE'RE 
POINTING OUT TO THE U.S. 
ADMINISTRATION, AND WE WILL 
CONTINUE TO WORK TO ENSURE THAT 
WHAT WE NEED WILL ARRIVE.
[End of Translation] WE'VE BEEN 
WORKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE 
AMERICANS TO HIGHLIGHT WHAT 
CANADIANS KNOW VERY, VERY WELL, 
THAT THE LEVEL OF INTEGRATION 
BETWEEN OUR ECONOMIES GOES BOTH 
WAYS ACROSS THE BORDER, THAT WE 
ARE RECEIVING ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES
FROM THE UNITED STATES, BUT THE 
UNITED STATES ALSO RECEIVES 
ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES AND PRODUCTS 
AND, INDEED, HEALTHCARE 
PROFESSIONALS FROM CANADA EVERY 
SINGLE DAY.
I THINK OF THE THOUSANDS OF 
NURSES, FOR EXAMPLE, WHO CROSS 
THE BRIDGE IN WINDSOR TO WORK IN
THE DETROIT MEDICAL SYSTEM EVERY
SINGLE DAY.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT AMERICANS 
RELY ON AND IT WOULD BE A 
MISTAKE TO CREATE BLOCKAGES OR 
TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF BACK AND
FORTH TRADE OF GOODS AND 
ESSENTIAL SERVICES, INCLUDING 
MEDICAL GOODS, ACROSS THE 
BORDER.
THAT IS THE POINT WE'RE MAKING 
VERY CLEARLY TO THE AMERICAN 
ADMINISTRATION RIGHT NOW.
>> Question: [Speaking French] 
[Voice of Interpreter] YOU WERE 
SUPPOSED TO FOLLOW UP WITH 
WASHINGTON WITH RESPECT TO THE 
FACT THAT MASKS ARE BEING 
DIVERTED.
I JUST WANT TO COME BACK TO 
WHETHER CANADA WILL RESPOND TO 
THE UNITED STATES.
>> Answer: I CAN TELL YOU THAT 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TRADE 
OPEN WITH THE UNITED STATES.
BOTH OF OUR COUNTRIES DEPEND OF 
THAT TRADE OF ESSENTIAL GOODS 
AND SERVICES ON BOTH SIDES OF 
THE BORDER.
WE WILL MAKE SURE THAT CONTINUES
TO FLOW AND ENCOURAGE IT IN 
THESE TIMES OF DIFFICULTY.
OF COURSE WE WILL BE FOLLOWING 
UP ON CONCERNS ABOUT SHIPMENTS 
THAT HAVE BEEN DIVERTED, BUT AT 
THE SAME TIME WE CONTINUE TO 
RECEIVE WHAT WE NEED.
[End of Translation]. 
>> THANK YOU.
NEXT QUESTION, OPERATOR.
>> NEXT QUESTION FROM THE 
"TORONTO STAR."
LINE OPEN.
>> Answer: YOU MIGHT BE ON MUTE.
>> Question: YEAH, I AM.
SORRY.
THANKS FOR TAKING THE QUESTION.
CAN YOU CLARIFY.
LAST NIGHT THE ORDER CAME FROM 
TRUMP TO 3M COMPANY TO CEASE 
THEIR EXPORTS TO CANADA AND 
YOU'VE SPOKEN ABOUT HOW VALUABLE
IT IS.
HAVE YOU SINCE THEN PUT IN A 
CALL TO THE PRESIDENT?
DO YOU HAVE ONE PLANNED TODAY?
YOU SAID IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE, 
BUT IT IS A DONE DEAL, IS IT 
NOT?
>> Answer: 3M HAS INDICATED IT 
UNDERSTANDS HOW IMPORTANT IT IS 
TO CONTINUE DELIVERING ON ORDERS
TO PLACES LIKE CANADA BECAUSE 
THERE IS MUCH TRADE THAT GOES 
BACK AND FORTH IN ESSENTIAL 
SERVICES AND IT COULD END UP 
HURTING AMERICANS AS MUCH AS IT 
HURTS ANYBODY ELSE.
THAT IS THE POINT WE ARE MAKING 
DIRECTLY AND HAVE BEEN MAKING 
FOR MANY DAYS TO VARIOUS LEVELS 
OF THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION 
AND THAT MESSAGE IS GETTING 
THROUGH.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] 3M HAS SAID THAT IT
WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO LIMIT 
TRADE IN ESSENTIAL MATERIALS 
BECAUSE ALL COUNTRIES NEED TO 
RECEIVE THOSE SUPPLIES FROM 
BEYOND THEIR BORDERS.
IT WOULD NOT BE ADVANTAGEOUS FOR
THE UNITED STATES OR AMERICANS 
IF SUPPLIES FROM CANADA AND 
ELSEWHERE COULD NOT COME IN.
SO THIS IS SOMETHING WE'RE 
POINTING OUT FORCEFULLY WITH THE
U.S. ADMINISTRATION RIGHT NOW, 
INCLUDING THIS MORNING.
[End of Translation]. 
>> Question: AS A FOLLOW-UP, YOU
DIDN'T INDICATE WHETHER YOU HAVE
OR WILL SPEAK TO THE PRESIDENT 
TODAY, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO 
UNDERSTAND FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE
JUST HOW BIG A GAP THIS LEAVES 
CANADA'S SUPPLIES OF THESE 
CRUCIAL MEDICAL MASKS.
>> Answer: WE CONTINUE TO BE 
CONFIDENT AT A WE'RE GOING TO 
RECEIVE THE NECESSARY EQUIPMENT.
WE UNDERSTAND THAT THERE ARE 
PRESSURES ACROSS OUR HEALTHCARE 
SYSTEMS IN VARIOUS REGIONS ON 
THE DWINDLING SUPPLIED.
THAT'S WHY WE ARE WORKING SO 
HARD TO MAKE SURE WE GET THE 
RIGHT SUPPLIES TO THEM IN THE 
RIGHT TIME.
WE HAVE SEEN A NUMBER OF 
CANADIAN COMPANIES STEPPING UP 
THEIR PRODUCTIONS WHICH WILL BE 
FLOWING SOON.
WE ARE RECEIVING MORE SHIPMENTS 
FROM PLACES AROUND THE WORLD.
WE WILL DO EVERYTHING WE CAN TO 
MAKE SURE NO PART OF CANADA GOES
WITHOUT ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES IN 
FACING THIS PANDEMIC.
>> THANK YOU.
ONE MORE QUESTION ON THE PHONE.
>> Question: HI THERE, PRIME 
MINISTER.
YOU'VE BEEN IMPLORING PEOPLE TO 
STAY HOME IF THEY CAN.
YOU'VE BEEN ASKING PEOPLE NOT TO
GO TO WORK.
GIVEN THAT, WHY ARE YOU STILL 
SENDING CIVIL SERVANTS TO RUN 
IMMIGRATION DETENTION 
FACILITIES, WHEN THAT COULD 
INCREASE THE RISK TO THOSE NOT 
ONLY DETAINED AT THE FACILITIES 
BUT ALSO THE WORKERS WHO HAVE TO
RETURN TO THEIR FAMILIES.
DO YOU CONSIDER THAT AN 
ESSENTIAL SERVICE?
>> Answer: WE RECOGNIZE THERE 
ARE MANY ESSENTIAL SERVICES THAT
CONTINUE TO BE DELIVERED.
WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO 
ENSURE THAT ESSENTIAL SERVICES 
GET DONE.
WHEREVER POSSIBLE, CIVIL 
SERVANTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO WORK 
REMOTELY AND FROM HOME.
WE KNOW THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT 
THINGS THAT NEED TO BE WORKED ON
TO DELIVER FOR CANADIANS TO KEEP
CANADIANS SAFE AT THIS 
PARTICULAR TIME.
I WANT TO TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY 
AGAIN TO THANK THE PUBLIC 
SERVICE FOR ALL IT DOES IN THESE
DIFFICULT TIMES TO KEEP 
CANADIANS SAFE AND SECURE.
>> Question: IT'S NOT REALLY A 
QUESTION OF SAFETY WHEN YOU'RE 
LOCKING UP THOSE WHO MAY HAVE 
OVERSTAYED A VISA.
YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS CONTINUOUSLY
SAID YOU'RE LOOKING ON IT BUT 
NOTHING HAS HAPPENED YET.
WHY ARE YOU DRAGGING YOUR FEET?
>> Answer: I CAN INFORM YOU THAT
ACTION HAS BEEN TAKEN.
WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH 
CORRECTIONS CANADA AND DETENTION
FACILITIES OF ALL TYPES TO 
REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY TO THE 
SPREAD OF COVID-19 TO ENSURE 
THAT MEASURES ARE IN PLACE TO 
KEEP CANADIANS SAFE.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OTHER 
MEASURES THAT CAN BE TAKEN.
WE WILL TAKE THOSE MEASURES IN 
DUE COURSE.
>> Question: PRIME MINISTER, ON 
THE ISSUE OF 3M YOU'RE SAYING IF
THE U.S. GOES AHEAD OF THIS, IT 
COULD HURT AMERICANS ALSO 
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW OF SUPPLIES 
ACROSS THE BORDER.
ARE YOU CONSIDERING ANY 
RETALIATORY MEASURES AGAINST THE
UNITED STATES?
>> Answer: WE ARE DISCUSSING THE
IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING THE FLOW 
OF ESSENTIAL GOODS AND SERVICES 
FOR BOTH OF OUR COUNTRIES.
I AM CONFIDENT THE CLOSE AND 
DEEP RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CANADA
AND THE U.S. WILL HOLD STRONG 
AND WE WILL NOT HAVE TO SEE 
INTERRUPTIONS IN THE SUPPLY 
CHAIN IN EITHER DIRECTION.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] WE WILL CONTINUE TO
POINT OUT TO THE AMERICANS THAT 
IT IS IN THE INTEREST OF OUR TWO
COUNTRIES TO CONTINUE TO SHARE 
ESSENTIAL GOODS AND SERVICES.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR ALL 
OF US, AND THAT'S WHY I AM 
CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE 
TO CONTINUE TO RELY ON EACH 
OTHER IN THE MIDST OF THIS 
SIGNIFICANT CRISIS.
[End of Translation]. 
>> Question: WITHIN THE HOUR 
ONTARIO OFFICIALS ARE GOING TO 
REVEAL THEIR PROJECTIONS ON THE 
NUMBER OF CASES AND NUMBER OF 
FATALITIES YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN 
THE PROVINCE.
DR. TAM SAID THE FEDERAL 
EQUIVALENT OF THOSE MODELS ARE 
BEING USED TO INFORM YOUR POLICY
DECISIONS, REQUIRING CANADIANS 
TO DRAMATICALLY ALTER THEIR WAY 
OF LIFE.
DON'T YOU HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO 
FOLLOW PREMIER FORD'S LEAD AND 
RELEASE PROJECTIONS ON THE 
WORST-CASE AND BEST-CASE 
SCENARIOS ABOUT HOW MANY OF US 
MIGHT DIE?
>> Answer: WE HAVE BEEN 
RELEASING INFORMATION EVERY 
SINGLE DAY ON DATA RECEIVED FROM
THE PROVINCES, UPDATING IT 
REGULARLY ON WEBSITES SO 
CANADIANS CAN SEE THE LATEST 
NUMBERS AND LOOK AT VARIOUS 
MODELS, USE THOSE NUMBERS TO 
MAKE VARIOUS PROJECTIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED TO 
MAKE SURE THAT THE PROJECTIONS 
WE WILL BE RELEASING ARE BASED 
ON THE MOST ACCURATE, THE 
DEEPEST, THE MOST PROPERLY 
COLLATED INFORMATION OUT THERE.
WE ARE WORKING WITH THE 
PROVINCES TO BE ABLE TO BUILD A 
ROBUST MODEL TO GIVE THE 
PROJECTIONS THAT PEOPLE WANT TO 
SEE.
PEOPLE ARE WONDERING HOW MUCH 
LONGER IS THIS GOING TO LAST?
HOW MANY CANADIANS ARE GOING TO 
BE SEVERELY AFFECTED?
THESE ARE THINGS WE WILL BE 
SHARING WITH CANADIANS, BUT WE 
WANT TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE A 
BETTER GRASP ON THE ACCURACY OF 
THE DATA BEFORE WE PUT 
PROJECTIONS OUT THERE.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] WE KNOW THAT 
CANADIANS WANT TO KNOW HOW LONG 
IT WILL TAKE AND HOW LONG WE'LL 
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO 
SELF-ISOLATE, HOW MANY CANADIANS
WILL BE AFFECTED, HOW MANY 
PEOPLE WILL DIE, AND WE WILL BE 
SHARING THAT INFORMATION.
BUT BEFORE WE CAN DO THAT, WE 
HAVE TO BASE OURSELVES ON 
VARIOUS SPECIFIC DATA, PRECISE 
DATA, AND BETTER DATA THAN WE 
HAVE NOW.
THAT'S WHY WE'RE WORKING WITH 
THE PROVINCES TO LOOK MORE 
CLOSELY AT THAT DATA AND ANALYZE
IT SO WE CAN DELIVER A MODEL 
THAT IS MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON 
REALITY.
[End of Translation]. 
>> Question: CAN YOU CLARIFY, IS
CANADA AT THE TABLE AT MONDAY'S 
MEETING WITH OPEC OR ARE YOU 
DEALING WITH THE U.S. AND THEY 
ARE DEALING WITH OPEC?
>> Answer: WE ARE CONTINUING OUR
CONVERSATIONS WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, 
INCLUDING OPEC.
THERE HAVE BEEN COMMUNICATIONS 
BETWEEN OPEC AND CANADA.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT 
WE NEED TO WORK TOGETHER AS A 
WORLD TO GET THROUGH THIS 
ECONOMIC CRISIS AS WELL AS A 
HEALTH CRISIS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO INSIST ON 
THAT.
>> Question: CAN YOU PLEASE 
CLARIFY IF THAT MEANS CANADA 
WILL ACTUALLY BE AT THE TABLE.
AND ALSO I'D LIKE TO GET YOUR 
THOUGHTS ON WHETHER CANADIAN 
PRODUCERS SHOULD ACTUALLY BEEN 
CUTTING THEIR PRODUCTION 
FURTHER.
THEY'VE ALREADY HAD TO DO THIS.
MORE IS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF 
SUPPLY CHALLENGES.
IS IT WISE FOR CANADA TO 
COORDINATOR WITH A PRICE-SETTING
CARTEL THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE 
OIL INDUSTRY?
>> Answer: CONVERSATIONS ARE 
ONGOING WITH THE UNITED STATES 
HOW WE CAN WORK TOGETHER TO MAKE
SURE WE ARE COUNTERING SOME OF 
THE MEASURES BROUGHT IN BY OPEC.
>> Question: [Speaking French] 
[Voice of Interpreter] WILL THEY
BE THE RANGERS IN NORTHERN 
QUÉBEC?
CAN YOU PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON 
THAT?
>> Answer: WE KNOW THAT THE 
CANADIAN RANGERS ARE ALWAYS 
PRESENT IN THE NORTH TO HELP 
COMMUNITIES THERE AND TO SERVE.
WHAT I UNDERSTAND IS THE RANGERS
WILL BE IN INUVIK TO HELP THEM 
INSTALL TENTS AND OTHER MEDICAL 
INFRASTRUCTURE AND WE'LL HAVE 
MORE INFORMATION ON NUMBERS IN 
THE COMING HOURS.
>> Question: NOW, PHARMACISTS 
ARE THINKING THAT THEY MAY HAVE 
A SHORTAGE OF CERTAIN CRITICAL 
MEDICINES, SUCH AS MORPHINE.
HOW CAN YOU ASSURE THAT SUPPLIES
WILL BE THERE FOR THE HOSPITALS?
>> Answer: WE HAVE A VERY GOOD 
PHARMACEUTICAL SYSTEM HERE.
THE COMPANIES HAVE BEEN TOLD TO 
PRODUCE MORE MATERIAL AND 
MEDICINES THAT WE WILL NEED 
DURING THIS CRISIS.
WE WANT TO ENSURE THERE WON'T BE
A SHORTAGE IN HOSPITALS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE 
LEVEL OF RESOURCES AVAILABLE SO 
THAT NO HOSPITAL AND NO CANADIAN
IS LACKING THE NECESSARY 
MEDICATION.
[End of Translation]. 
>> Question: I IMAGINE YOU HAVE 
SEEN THE PROJECTIONS FROM 
ONTARIO AND QUÉBEC THAT WILL BE 
RELEASED SHORTLY.
CAN YOU TELL US WHAT YOUR 
REACTION IS TO THOSE NUMBERS AND
HOW THIS WILL CHANGE THE FEDERAL
APPROACH?
>> Answer: I'M GOING TO PRE-EMPT
THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT PREMIER 
FORD WILL BE MAKING SHORTLY.
WE HAVE SEEN THE NUMBERS.
WE CONTINUE TO WORK VERY, VERY 
CLOSELY WITH THE PROVINCES.
WE ARE VERY MUCH LOOKING TO 
SHARE NATIONAL PROJECTIONS WITH 
CANADIANS IN THE COMING DAYS.
I CAN TELL YOU THAT WE KNOW THAT
THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT 
SITUATION FOR CANADIANS.
THERE ARE SOME VERY CHALLENGING 
PROJECTIONS OUT THERE THAT WILL 
EMPHASIZE HOW IMPORTANT IT IS 
FOR ALL OF US TO DO OUR PART, TO
STAY HOME, TO KEEP OURSELVES AND
OUR LOVED ONES SAFE TO GET 
THROUGH THIS AS BEST AS WE 
POSSIBLY CAN. 
>> Question: HOW DO THESE 
NUMBERS CHANGE THE FEDERAL 
APPROACH?
>> Answer: OUR FEDERAL APPROACH 
CONTINUES TO BE TO DO EVERYTHING
WE CAN BASED ON THE SCIENTIFIC 
ADVICE TO KEEP CANADIANS SAFE 
AND TO MAKE SURE OUR ECONOMY 
BOUNCES BACK STRONGLY AFTER THIS
IS ALL THROUGH.
THE MEASURES THAT WE'RE 
ENCOURAGING AND ASKING CANADIANS
TO TAKE, WHETHER IT'S AROUND 
SELF-ISOLATION OR SOCIAL 
DISTANCING, WHICH MEANS KEEPING 
2 METRES APART, WHETHER IT'S 
AROUND ENSURING PEOPLE ARE 
WASHING THEIR HANDS REGULARLY 
AND FOR 20 SECONDS.
THESE ARE THE THINGS THAT ARE 
GOING TO HELP KEEP CANADIANS 
SAFE.
AS MUCH AS WE CAN DO AT THE 
FEDERAL LEVEL.
AS MUCH AS WE CAN SUPPORT.
AS MUCH AS WE CAN BRING IN 
QUARANTINES AND DECREES, 
ULTIMATELY IT IS CANADIANS' OWN 
BEHAVIOUR THAT WILL MAKE THE 
DIFFERENCE IN THIS.
HOW WE GET THROUGH THIS DEPENDS 
ON HOW.
THAT'S WHY I'M SO CONFIDENT THAT
WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS BECAUSE
CANADIANS ARE ALWAYS THERE FOR 
EACH OTHER.
WE'RE LOOKING TO DO THE RIGHT 
THING.
WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS 
TOGETHER.
MERCI.
>> Rosemary: THAT IS THE PRIME 
MINISTER OF CANADA SPEAKING TO 
CANADIANS FOR HIS DAILY BRIEFING
ON THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19, 
BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND FROM A 
PUBLIC HEALTH PERSPECTIVE.
JUST AN UPDATE ON THE 
INFORMATION WE ARE EXPECTING 
FROM ONTARIO TODAY AROUND SOME 
OF THE PROJECTIONS AND MODELLING
THAT THEY HAVE DONE.
THAT PRESS CONFERENCE HAS BEEN 
PUSHED BACK TO 12:30 EASTERN.
WE WILL BRING IT TO YOU LIVE.
WE WILL ALSO NOW BRING YOU PART 
OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S 
BRIEFING STARTING AT NOON.
BEFORE WE DO THAT, LET ME GO TO 
MY COLLEAGUES VASSY KAPELOS AND 
CATHARINE CULLEN WHO HAVE BEEN 
LISTENING IN.
IT IS THE CONTENT OF THE ANSWERS
I WANT YOU TO TALK ABOUT.
THE ANNOUNCEMENT CONFIRMING 
AMAZON CANADA WILL BE HELPING 
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GET 
SUPPLIES OUT TO PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES.
AND SECONDLY CONFIRMING WHAT WE 
HAD BEEN REPORTING, THE RANGERS,
PART OF THE MILITARY, WILL BE 
GOING UP INTO NORTHERN QUÉBEC TO
HELP OUT AFTER A REQUEST FROM 
THAT PROVINCE.
OKAY.
LET'S GET TO THE MEATIER STUFF.
AND THE FOOD BANKS.
$100 MILLION.
HOW QUICKLY I FORGET.
$100 MILLION FOR FOOD BANKS 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND REMOTE 
INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MONEY TO
TRY TO BOLSTER SUPPLIES FOR 
CANADIANS WHO MAY BE USING THE 
FOOD BANKS THERE.
VASSY, I'LL START WITH YOU.
THERE WAS A LOT OF STUFF IN THE 
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS.
PERHAPS WE'LL START WITH THE 33 
SUPPLY ISSUE.
>> Vassy: I THINK THAT'S THE 
BIGGEST HEADLINE AND STORY TODAY
AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AT 
THIS MOMENT.
THE BACK STORY IS THAT 3M WHICH 
MANUFACTURERS N95 MASKS WHICH 
ARE THE MASKS THAT HEALTHCARE 
PROFESSIONALS NEED TO PROTECT 
THEMSELVES AGAINST THE VIRUS 
WHEN THEY'RE DEALING WITH THOSE 
WITH THE VIRUS, THE DEFENCE 
PRODUCTION ACT IN THE 
UNITED STATES, THE PRESIDENT HAS
INVOKED IT TO MAKE SURE THAT 3M 
FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE ONLY 
PRODUCES THOSE MASKS AND SHIPS 
THEM TO THE UNITED STATES.
AND, IN FACT, HAS SPECIFIED THAT
THEY NOT GO TO CANADA ANYMORE.
WE DON'T KNOW THE EXACT DETAILS 
ON HOW MANY MASKS WE ARE 
IMPORTING FROM THEM OR WHERE 
THEY'RE COMING FROM.
MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT NONE 
ARE MADE.
THERE IS AN EARLIER STATEMENT 
FROM 3M THAT WE WORK WITH FOUND 
FOR US THAT THE MASKS ARE NOT 
PRODUCED HERE IN CANADA, BUT 
THEY HAVE DOUBLED IN THE AMOUNT 
OF N95 MASKS BROUGHT INTO CANADA
IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 
2020.
IT SOUNDS LIKE THIS WOULD AFFECT
OUR SUPPLY IN SOME SORT OF 
SIGNIFICANT WAY.
THE PRIME MINISTER WAS ASKED, 
WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT IT?
ARE YOU TALKING TO PRESIDENT 
TRUMP?
WHAT ARE THE CONVERSATIONS LIKE?
HE SAID -- HE DIDN'T SPECIFY 
THAT THE CONVERSATIONS HAD BEEN 
HAD WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP, BUT HE
DID SAY -- NOT AN EXPLICIT 
THREAT, BUT HE HIGHLIGHTED A FEW
THINGS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP 
BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CANADA THAT
ALMOST IMPLIED A BIT OF A 
THREAT.
I USE THE WORD THREAT NOT IN A 
SPECIFIC WAY.
HE SAID TRADE GOES IN BOTH 
DIRECTIONS.
HE HIGHLIGHTED THE FACT THAT A 
THOUSAND NURSES IN WINDSOR WORK 
IN DETROIT EVERY DAY AND 
AMERICANS DEPEND ON THOSE 
NURSES.
HE SAID IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO
LIMIT GOODS AND ESSENTIAL 
PERSONNEL.
AND THAT'S WHAT HE'S POINTING 
OUT TO THE AMERICAN 
ADMINISTRATION.
WE DON'T HAVE ANY CONCRETE 
ANSWERS OF WHAT WILL COME FROM 
THOSE CONVERSATIONS OR IF THE 
U.S. WILL PULL BACK, BUT IT 
SOUNDS LIKE THE CONVERSATIONS 
ARE BEING HAD.
THE PRIME MINISTER OR OTHERS ARE
POINTING OUT THE INTERDEPENDENCE
OF THE RELATIONSHIP WHEN IT 
COMES TO ESSENTIAL GOODS AND 
HEALTHCARE WORKERS.
>> Rosemary: IT'S SO INTERESTING
TO SEE THE CONSTANT STRAIN THIS 
RELATIONSHIP SEEMS TO BE UNDER 
IN THE MIDST OF THIS PANDEMIC, 
WHETHER THE THREAT FROM LAST 
WEEK BRINGING THE MILITARY 
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, 
WHICH SEEMS NOW TO HAVE DIED 
OFF, TO CLOSING THE BORDER AND 
FINDING A WAY TO DO THAT IN 
TERMS OF NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL.
DEALING WITH AN AMERICAN 
PRESIDENT WHO IS CERTAINLY 
PROTECTIONIST AND HAS BEEN EVEN 
THOUGH THEY MANAGED TO SIGN AN 
AGREEMENT ON NAFTA.
I WILL SHOW A TWEET FROM DOUG 
FORD WHO WILL BE SPEAKING 
SHORTLY, BUT HE HAS ALSO 
OBVIOUSLY BEEN CONCERNED WITH 
THIS.
HE REACHED OUT TO THE TRADE 
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE 
UNITED STATES, ROBERT 
LEITHEISER, I DON'T KNOW IF IT 
WILL COME UP.
>> I'VE GOT IT RIGHT HERE, 
ROSIE.
HE SAYS, I JUST GOT OFF THE 
PHONE WITH THE AMBASSADOR 
REGARDING THE U.S. GOVERNMENT'S 
NEW ORDER.
THE HEALTH AND WELL-BEING 
DEPENDS ON THESE ESSENTIAL 
MEDICAL ITEMS AND NOW MORE THAN 
EVER OUR COUNTRIES NEED TO WORK 
TOGETHER TO COMBAT COVID-19.
THAT MESSAGE OF WORKING TOGETHER
WHICH IS WHAT WE HEARD JUSTIN 
TRUDEAU SAYING, BUT THE OTHER 
PART OF IT THAT VASSY 
ACKNOWLEDGED, IS IT A POLITE 
THREAT, AN IMPLICIT THREAT, IS 
"THREAT" THE RIGHT WORD.
THAT'S UP TO THE AUDIENCE TO 
JUDGE.
HE SAID CLEARLY THESE ARE THINGS
AMERICANS RELY ON.
IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO CREATE 
BLOCKAGES.
IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
BECAUSE THAT WOULD RAISE 
CONCERNS.
THE PRIME MINISTER DID SAY WE 
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE WHAT WE 
NEED.
HE POINTED TO THE LANGUAGE IN 
THE 3M RELEASE WHICH ESSENTIALLY
SUGGESTS THAT 3M IS PUSHING BACK
SOMEWHAT.
THAT RELEASE SAYS THAT 3M IS 
BEING REQUIRED TO PRIORITIZE 
AMERICAN NEEDS.
TO WHAT POINT THAT HAS TO BE 
DONE TO THE ABSOLUTE EXCLUSION 
OF OTHER COUNTRIES IS THE 
CRUCIAL QUESTION I THINK IN ALL 
OF THIS.
YOU POINT OUT THAT THEY HAVE 
BEEN NEGOTIATING FOR THE 
AMERICANS FOR SOME PEOPLE EVEN 
RECENTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THIS
PANDEMIC.
YOU'VE SEEN THAT TWEET FROM DOUG
FORD.
I WAS FOLLOWING UP ON THAT STORY
ABOUT TROOPS AT THE BORDER AND 
CHRYSTIA FREELAND WAS HAVING 
CONVERSATIONS AND BILL BLAIR, 
HARJIT SAJJAN.
WE CAN BE CERTAIN THAT THOSE 
CONVERSATIONS ARE ONGOING.
I THINK THE PRIME MINISTER 
REFERENCED THAT THESE 
DISCUSSIONS HAD BEEN GOING ON 
FOR A FEW DAYS AND THE QUESTION 
IS THE OUTCOME.
>> Rosemary: THE 3M STATEMENT 
ITSELF WAS FAIRLY EXPLICIT IN 
WHAT THE PRIME MINISTER FOR ALL 
SORTS OF POLITICAL REASONS 
COULDN'T SAY, AND THAT IS 3M 
SAYING IF THEY WERE TO DO THIS, 
IT WOULD CAUSE OTHER COUNTRIES 
TO RETALIATE.
3M ABLE TO SAY THINGS MORE 
CLEARLY THAN THE PRIME MINISTER 
WHO IS DOING A DELICATE DANCE.
I WILL GO BACK TO THE ISSUE OF 
MODELLING BECAUSE WE ARE GOING 
TO GET TO THAT SHORTLY IN 
ONTARIO.
THEY ARE POSTED MORE INFORMATION
JUST I THINK YESTERDAY, END OF 
DAY.
I TRY TO LOOK EVERY DAY, BUT IT 
SEEMS YESTERDAY THERE'S BEEN AN 
UPDATE TO THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT'S REPORTING ON DATA, 
WHICH IS FAIRLY COMPREHENSIVE.
BUT STILL I GUESS THERE IS A 
DESIRE TO GET MORE AND THE PRIME
MINISTER SAYING THEY ARE 
COMMITTED TO DOING THAT, VASSY.
>> Vassy: YEAH, THE DIFFERENCE 
BETWEEN THE DATA WE HAVE 
AVAILABLE TO US NOW AND WHAT THE
ASK IS, BASICALLY WE HAVE THE 
RAW DATA, YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY 
RIGHT, ON THE PUBLIC HEALTH 
WEBSITE.
YOU CAN FIND OUT, FOR EXAMPLE, 
HOW MANY CASES, HOW MANY 
HOSPITALIZATIONS, IT'S BROKEN 
DOWN BY DEMOGRAPHIC.
WHAT WE DON'T HAVE IS ANY 
PROJECTION, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
THOSE PROJECTIONS ARE NOT A 
CRYSTAL BALL, AS MANY DOCTORS 
HAVE OUTLINED, BUT A GAUGE FOR 
CANADIANS WHO ARE EXTREMELY 
ANXIOUS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 
HOW LONG OR BASICALLY WONDERING 
HOW LONG THIS IS GOING TO GO ON.
THERE'S NO WAY TO KNOW FOR 
CERTAIN.
IT'S GOING TO BE IMPACTED BY OUR
BEHAVIOURS.
BUT THERE ARE A RANGE OF 
SCENARIOS THAT VARIOUS 
GOVERNMENTS ARE DEALING WITH.
THAT RANGE WE ARE EXPECTING TO 
HEAR FROM THE PREMIER OF 
ONTARIO.
OTHER PREMIERS HAVE PROMISED TO 
RELEASE THAT DATA AS WELL.
MUCH OF IT HAS BEEN RELEASED IN 
ALBERTA AND B.C.
THE ASK OF THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT IS TO PROVIDE THE 
SAME AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, 
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CAVEAT THAT 
IT NOT JUST DEPENDS ON OUR 
BEHAVIOURS, BUT THEY HAVE TO 
ASSIMILATE AND ANALYZE THE DATA.
SOME PROVINCES DON'T EVEN HAVE 
ENOUGH DATA TO PRODUCE TO 
ANALYZE.
THEY LIKELY WILL NEXT WEEK, BUT 
AT THIS POINT THEY DON'T.
THE PRIME MINISTER WOULD NOT PUT
A TIMELINE ON THE RELEASE OF 
THAT DATA.
HE ECHOED HIS UNDERSTANDING THAT
HE SPOKE OF YESTERDAY, THAT 
CANADIANS WANT THE ANALYSIS, 
THEY WANT TO SEE THE VARIOUS 
MODELS BEFORE THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT, BUT MORE OF THE SAME
IN THE PROMISING.
IT WILL COME BUT NO TIMELINE 
ATTACHED TO THAT.
HE HAS SEEN THE NUMBERS FROM 
ONTARIO AND SEEN THE DATA THAT 
WE'RE TO HEAR FROM PREMIER FORD 
IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES, BUT HE 
DIDN'T WANT TO PRE-EMPT THE 
PREMIER BEFORE THE RELEASE.
>> Rosemary: WE'RE NOT ALL 
SCIENTISTS, BUT THERE IS A 
FAIRLY GOOD GRAPH THERE ON THE 
FEDERAL WEBSITE, THE PUBLIC 
HEALTH WEBSITE, THAT GIVES YOU 
THE WAY CANADA IS COMPARING TO 
OTHER COUNTRIES.
WHAT NO ONE HAS DONE IS 
ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE PRESIDENT 
OF THE U.S. DID, WHICH IS IF WE 
DON'T DO THIS, THIS MANY PEOPLE 
WILL DIE.
NO ONE HAS DONE THAT IN THIS 
COUNTRY.
IT SOUNDS LIKE ONTARIO MIGHT DO 
SOME OF THAT TODAY, BASED ON 
SOME OF WHAT MIKE CRAWLEY HAS 
BEEN REPORTING.
I WANT TO GET TO A DOCTOR BEFORE
I LET YOU GO -- YOU'RE NOT GOING
TO GO, BUT STAY HERE.
LET'S PUT THESE QUESTIONS TO 
DR. RUSS UPSHIRE WHO WILL HELP 
US UNDERSTAND THINGS MORE FOR 
PEOPLE WHO AREN'T SCIENTISTS.
WHAT I GUESS WE ARE EXPECTING 
FROM ONTARIO IS SOME SORT OF 
PROJECTION OF HOW BAD THINGS 
COULD GET, AND THAT COULD 
INCLUDE HOSPITALIZATIONS, 
I.C.U., AND POTENTIALLY DEATHS.
IS THAT WHAT YOUR UNDERSTANDING 
IS FROM WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT?
>> Interview: YEAH, I'M NOT 
ENTIRELY SURE WHAT TO EXPECT 
BECAUSE I HAVEN'T SEEN THE 
RESULTS OF THE MODELS AND DATA.
MEANWHILE, GOOD AFTERNOON.
IT'S NICE TO HEAR YOUR VOICE AND
I HOPE YOU'RE WELL AND SAFE.
>> Rosemary: I AM.
AND I APPRECIATE THAT AND THE 
SAME FOR YOU.
WHAT ARE THE LIMITATIONS OF 
THESE KINDS OF PROJECTIONS AND 
MODELLING.
I POINT TO THE EXAMPLE IN THE 
UNITED STATES WHICH WAS DONE FOR
LARGELY POLITICAL REASONS, TO BE
FRANK, BUT WHAT ARE THE 
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES IN 
THIS INFORMATION?
>> Interview: SO I LIKE WHAT YOU
SAID EARLIER THAT MANY OF US ARE
NOT SCIENTISTS.
THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY WHILE ON 
LOCKDOWN TO INCREASE OUR SOURCES
OF SCIENCE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS A 
MODEL?
MODELS ARE MATHEMATICAL 
REPRESENTATIONS THAT ARE USED TO
ACTUALLY HELP US GAIN 
UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEX 
WORLD THAT WE LIVE IN.
SO THERE'S A FAMOUS STATISTICIAN
THAT SAID THAT ALL MODELS ARE 
WRONG OR LIE, BUT SOME LIE MORE 
USEFULLY THAN OTHERS.
MODELS ARE CRITICALLY DEPENDANT 
ON THE DATA THAT WE HAVE IN 
ORDER TO MAKE THEM WORK.
SOME MODELS ARE PURELY 
EXPLANATORY.
THEY JUST DESCRIBE THINGS.
SOME THINGS ARE PROJECTIONS, SO 
THEY'RE FORECASTING.
WE ALL KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING 
MODELS BECAUSE WE WATCH THE 
WEATHER AND WE FOLLOW THE 
ECONOMY.
WHAT WE'RE GOING TO FIND IS THAT
MODELS GIVE US A RANGE OF 
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF WHAT MAY 
OR MAY NOT HAPPEN IN THE NEAR 
FUTURE.
TWO THINGS TO REMEMBER.
MODELS ARE ONLY AS GOOD AS THE 
DATA THAT INFORMS US.
IF WE'RE NOT HAPPY WITH THE DATA
THAT WE HAVE, WE NEED TO ASK 
OURSELVES QUESTIONS ABOUT WHY WE
HAVEN'T SUPPORTED PUBLIC HEALTH 
IN THE WAY THAT WE NEED TO AND 
FUND IT SO THAT WE HAVE 
SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS AND SYSTEMS
OF DATA THAT ARE ACTUALLY ABLE 
TO BE INTEGRATED AND ANALYZED IN
A TIMELY FASHION.
WE CAN COME BACK TO THAT LATER.
SECONDLY, THE MODELS WILL GIVE 
US SOME NEAR-TERM PROJECTIONS, 
PERHAPS, MAY THEY TELL US THINGS
THAT HAVE HAPPENED ALREADY.
WE'RE ALWAYS WORKING WITH LAGGED
DATA.
IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT WE'RE 
SEEING IN THE DATA TODAY 
REFLECTS WHAT HAPPENED A COUPLE 
OF WEEKS AGO, WHICH MEANS WE 
HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS OF
THEIR INTERPRETATION, MINDFUL OF
THEIR LIMITATIONS.
WE MOST IMPORTANTLY NEED NOT GET
FIXATED ON A PARTICULAR TIME OR 
DATE OR NUMBER BECAUSE ALL 
MODELS ARE EQUALLY PROVISIONAL, 
THEY HOLD FOR THE TIME THE DATA 
SUPPORT THEIR VERACITY.
THEY NEED TO BE UPDATED IN TERMS
OF NEW INFORMATION THAT COMES 
IN.
WE'RE LEARNING A LOT FROM OTHER 
JURISDICTIONS.
THAT INFORMATION -- THE REALLY 
IMPORTANT IMPORTANT THING IS 
THERE'S BEEN HUGE AMOUNT OF 
INFORMATION SHARING GLOBALLY.
CLINICIANS AND GLOBAL HEALTH 
PROFESSIONALS ARE LEARNING FROM 
THE EXPERIENCES OF COLLEAGUES IN
NEW YORK, ITALY, CHINA.
EVERYONE IS AS QUICKLY AS 
POSSIBLE TRYING TO GET THEIR 
HEADS AND MINDS AROUND THIS 
EVOLVING DIFFICULT SITUATION.
>> Rosemary: THAT'S A SUPER 
GREAT EXPLANATION.
THANK YOU FOR THAT.
WHAT IS THE BENEFIT TO THE 
PUBLIC OF SEEING NOT JUST 
MODELS, BUT PROJECTIONS?
BECAUSE I DON'T THINK WE HAVE 
SEEN STRICT PROJECTIONS ON 
THINGS LIKE THE MORTALITY RATE.
WE'VE SEEN WHAT IT'S AT NOW.
IN TERMS OF IF WE CONTINUE DOWN 
THIS ROAD, THIS WILL HAPPEN.
WHAT WILL BE THE BENEFIT TO THE 
PUBLIC IN KNOWING THAT?
>> Interview: THERE ARE CERTAIN 
THINGS THAT FLOW DIRECTLY FROM 
SEEING PROJECTIONS.
ONE IS THAT WE HAVE VERY FEW 
MEDICAL COUNTER MEASURES AT OUR 
DISPOSAL RIGHT NOW.
OUR BEST WEAPON, SO TO SPEAK, 
THOUGH I DON'T LIKE TO USE THAT 
LANGUAGE, OUR BEST RESPONSE TO 
THE CHALLENGES POSED BY 
CORONAVIRUS IS TO DO EXACTLY 
WHAT THE PRIME MINISTER WAS 
SAYING BEFORE HE CONCLUDED HIS 
BRIEFING.
WE NEED TO STAY RESOLVED FOR 
SOCIAL DISTANCING, FOR PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING, FOR THE MEASURES 
THAT ARE IN PLACE.
I KNOW IT'S IMPOSING SACRIFICES 
ON ABSOLUTELY EVERYONE.
UNTIL WE HAVE BETTER IDEAS OF 
HOW MUCH IS GOING ON IN THE 
COMMUNITY AND WE HAVE BETTER 
IDEAS FROM THE PEOPLE WHO ARE 
UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT 
THROUGH, PERHAPS, THE USE OF 
SEROLOGICAL TESTS AND OTHER 
MEASURES, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
USE WHAT IS AT OUR DISPOSAL, 
WHICH IS OURSELF.
WE'RE ALL RELIANT ON EACH OTHER 
AND OUR OWN BEHAVIOUR TO BRING 
THIS UNDER CONTROL.
>> Rosemary: I ONLY HAVE A 
MINUTE, DOCTOR.
I WISH I HAD MORE TIME.
YOU DID WORK IN PUBLIC HEALTH 
DURING THE SARS OUTBREAK.
>> Interview: YES.
>> Rosemary: HOW IMPORTANT WAS 
THE DATA, MODELLING, AND THE 
PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF SHAPING 
THE RESPONSE AT THAT TIME?
I KNOW WE'VE LEARNED A LOT OF 
LESSONS SINCE THEN.
>> Interview: SARS TAUGHT US -- 
YOU MIGHT RECALL THOSE OF US 
WORKING IN THE PUBLIC HEALTH 
SIDE OF THINGS DOING THE 
EPIDEMIOLOGY WERE TRYING TO WORK
WITH STICKIE NOTES.
THE FIRST LESSON FROM SARS WAS 
THAT WE NEEDED TO INVEST IN A 
PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE TO 
HAVE DATA SYSTEMS THAT PROVIDE 
US WITH REAL-TIME INFORMATION SO
WE CAN MAKE GOOD DECISIONS AND 
THAT'S STILL GOOD TODAY.
>> Rosemary: DOCTOR, I'VE GOT TO
LEAVE IT THERE.
I DO APPRECIATE IT.
I HOPE YOU'RE GOING TO COME 
BACK.
THAT'S DR. RUSS UPSHUR.
THANKS, DOCTOR.
WE ARE STANDING BY TO BRING YOU 
THAT UPDATE FROM TORONTO AT 
12:30 EASTERN, BUT WE WILL ALSO 
BRING YOU ON CBC NEWS NETWORK 
AND cbcnews.ca THE LATEST FROM 
THE CABINET MINISTERS AND THE 
PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS.
I'M ROSEMARY BARTON.
[♪♪♪] 
>> Rosemary: I'M ROSEMARY 
BARTON.
WELCOME ONCE AGAIN WHERE YOU 
MIGHT BE JOINING US ON CBC NEWS 
NETWORK OR STREAMING ON 
cbcnews.ca AND ON OUR APP.
WE HEARD FROM THE PRIME MINISTER
MOMENTS AGO THAT ME IS WORKING 
WITH THE PROVINCES TO RELEASE 
THE MOST UP-TO-DATE AND ACCURATE
INFORMATION ON THE DATA AND THE 
ANALYSIS OF DATA IN COVID-19.
WE ARE EXPECTING, THOUGH, TODAY 
FROM ONTARIO TO RELEASE SOME NEW
NUMBERS, SOME NEW PROJECTIONS, 
IF YOU WILL, THIS HOUR.
THESE ARE PROJECTIONS THAT THE 
PREMIER, DOUG FORD, SAY ARE 
STARK.
THERE IS A HOPE THAT THEY COULD 
SERVE AS A WAKE-UP CALL ABOUT 
THE SPREAD OF COVID-19, GIVEN IT
WILL GET INTO HOSPITALIZATIONS 
AND POTENTIAL FATALITIES OR 
FATALITIES THAT HAVE BEEN 
PREVENTED BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE
MEASURES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN 
PLACE OVER THE LAST NUMBER OF 
WEEKS.
THE PRIME MINISTER ALSO MADE AN 
ANNOUNCEMENT AROUND FOOD BANKS, 
$100 MILLION GOING TO SHOW UP 
FOOD BANKS TO PROTECT FOOD 
SECURITY FOR CANADA'S MOST 
VULNERABLE IN THIS COUNTRY, 
WHETHER IN URBAN AREAS OR MORE 
REMOTE OR INDIGENOUS 
COMMUNITIES.
THE PRIME MINISTER WAS ALSO 
ASKED ABOUT A DEVELOPING STORY 
AROUND 3M AND REPORTS THAT THE 
UNITED STATES IS TRYING TO 
RESTRICT WHERE THAT COMPANY CAN 
SEND MASKS AND EQUIPMENT.
JUSTIN TRUDEAU SAYS THAT WOULD 
BE A MISTAKE.
>> Prime Minister Justin 
Trudeau: WE'VE BEEN WORKING VERY
CLOSELY WITH THE AMERICANS TO 
HIGHLIGHT WHAT CANADIANS KNOW 
VERY, VERY WELL, THAT THE LEVEL 
OF INTEGRATION BETWEEN OUR 
ECONOMIES GOES BOTH WAYS ACROSS 
THE BORDER, THAT WE ARE 
RECEIVING ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES 
FROM THE UNITED STATES, BUT THE 
UNITED STATES ALSO RECEIVES 
ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES AND PRODUCTS 
AND, INDEED, HEALTHCARE 
PROFESSIONALS FROM CANADA EVERY 
SINGLE DAY.
I THINK OF THE THOUSANDS OF 
NURSES, FOR EXAMPLE, WHO CROSS 
THE BRIDGE IN WINDSOR TO WORK IN
THE DETROIT MEDICAL SYSTEM EVERY
SINGLE DAY.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT AMERICANS 
RELY ON.
IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO CREATE 
BLOCKAGES OR REDUCE THE AMOUNT 
OF BACK AND FORTH TRADE OF 
ESSENTIAL GOODS AND SERVICES, 
INCLUDING MEDICAL GOODS, ACROSS 
OUR BORDER.
THAT IS THE POINT WE'RE MAKING 
VERY CLEARLY TO THE AMERICAN 
ADMINISTRATION RIGHT NOW.
>> Rosemary: AS WE WAIT FOR 
FEDERAL CABINET MINISTERS AND 
PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS TO COME 
IN AND GIVE A BRIEFING, AS WE 
WAIT FOR TORONTO TO GIVE THEIR 
BRIEFING AT 12:30, LET'S GO BACK
TO MY COLLEAGUES, VASSY KAPELOS 
AND CATHARINE CULLEN.
IN THE MIDST OF THESE 
EXTRAORDINARY TIMES, 
EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES BEING 
TAKEN ON ALL SORTS OF FRONTS.
AND STILL THE SAME CHALLENGING 
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE 
UNITED STATES.
IT DOES SEEM WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO 
WALK THEM BACK THROUGH THIS 
PANDEMIC OR GET THEM TO WHERE 
CANADA WANTS THEM TO BE.
BUT HERE WE ARE IN THIS 
SITUATION, VASSY, AT A TIME YOU 
HOPE THE WORLD IS WORKING IN A 
MORE CO-OPERATIVE AND 
COLLABORATIVE WAY.
OBVIOUSLY THAT'S NOT ALWAYS THE 
CASE. 
>> Vassy: NO, IT'S NOT ALWAYS 
THE CASE WITH BE AND IT FEELS 
LIKE DEJA VU, WHERE YOU POINTED 
OUT LAST WEEK THAT WE WERE 
TALKING ABOUT THE THREAT FROM 
THE UNITED STATES TO MILITARIZE 
THE BORDER BETWEEN CANADA AND 
THE U.S.
IT'S THE LONGEST DEMILITARIZED 
BORDER IN THE WORLD.
THAT WAS ANOTHER ISSUE THEY HAD 
TO DEAL WITH, THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT HAD TO DEAL WITH, IN 
THE MIDDLE OF TRYING TO RESPOND 
TO THE CRISIS THAT WAS 
UNFOLDING.
THEY HAD TO DEAL WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF THE BORDER BEING 
ARMED.
FAST-FORWARD A WEEK, AND NOW THE
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 
WANTS TO USE A WAR TIME ACT TO 
CONJURE UP CAPACITY TO SUPPLY 
AMERICAN NEEDS.
IN THIS CASE, THOSE NEEDS ARE 
SHARED BY CANADIAN FIRST 
RESPONDERS AS WELL AS HEALTHCARE
PROFESSIONALS, THOSE N95 MASKS, 
SO CENTRAL TO THEIR ABILITY TO 
NOT THEMSELVES GET INFECTED WHEN
THEY ARE TREATING THE CANADIANS 
AND AMERICANS SOUTH OF THE 
BORDER, WHO HAVE BEEN INFECTED 
BY THIS VIRUS.
THE IDEA IS BEHIND THE 
LEGISLATIVE MEASURE THE 
PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO USE, TO 
DIRECT THAT PRODUCTION TO THE 
UNITED STATES.
3M, THE MAKER OF THOSE MASKS, 
HAS COME OUT SAYING, WELL, IT 
WON'T EXACTLY WORK THAT WAY.
THERE ARE HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS 
IF WE CUT OFF THE SUPPLY TO 
CANADA AND LATIN AMERICAN 
COUNTRIES.
WHAT WE ARE NOT CLEAR ON IS HOW 
MUCH OF CANADA'S SUPPLY WOULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE CUTTING OFF OF 
THOSE N95 MASKS.
HOW WILL THIS PLAY OUT.
DOES 3M HAVE THE ABILITY TO 
FIGHT BACK AGAINST THE 
LEGISLATIVE LEVERAGE THE 
PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO USE.
I'M UNCLEAR ON THE ANSWER TO 
THAT.
THE PRIME MINISTER WAS ASKED 
MULTIPLE TIMES ABOUT THIS AND HE
VERY MUCH CONTINUED TO POINT 
OUT -- IT'S FUNNILY TALKING 
ABOUT DEJA VU.
WE KEEP HEARING SIMILAR LINES 
FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND
THAT IS AN EMPHASIS ON THE 
INTERDEPENDENCE FROM BOTH OF OUR
COUNTRIES.
THE ECONOMY IS IN OVERLAP, BUT 
ALSO IN THIS CASE ESSENTIAL 
WORKERS.
THERE ARE A THOUSAND NURSES IN 
WINDSOR WHO WORK IN DETROIT.
THE PRIME MINISTER HIGHLIGHTED 
THAT AND TRIED TO UNDERLINE, 
SAYING AMERICANS DEPEND ON THEM.
IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO LIMIT 
ACCESS TO GOODS AND PERSONNEL.
SOMETIMES THE STUFF THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT POINTS OUT WORKS.
IT'S UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT 
WHETHER THAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME
IN THIS INCIDENT.
>> Rosemary: IT'S CHALLENGING TO
READ THE PRESIDENT WHO IS UNDER 
AN INTENSE AMOUNT OF POLITICAL 
PRESSURE HIMSELF DURING AN 
ELECTION YEAR TRYING TO MANAGE 
THIS AND CONVINCE AMERICANS THAT
MAYBE IT ISN'T AS BAD AS IT 
APPEARS IT IS.
IF HE'S HAVING TO SORT OF PULL 
OUT ALL THE STOPS TO PROTECT HIS
OWN CITIZENS, IT'S VERY 
CHALLENGING TO SEE HOW WE 
RESPOND TO THAT.
CATHARINE.
>> I WOULD LIKE A DISTINCTION 
BETWEEN WHAT WAS HAPPENING LAST 
WEEK AND THIS WEEK.
OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. OVER 
THE COURSE OF DONALD TRUMP'S 
PRESIDENCY AND ARE THERE HAVE 
BEEN MANY INCIDENTS.
LAST WEEK WHEN DONALD TRUMP WAS 
ASKED ABOUT THIS REQUEST AS A 
SUGGESTION THAT A THOUSAND 
SOLDIERS MIGHT BE BROUGHT TO THE
CANADA-U.S. BORDER, HE SEEMED TO
BE CAUGHT PUBLICLY UNAWARE.
HE SUGGESTED THERE WERE TROOPS 
AT THE BORDER, WHICH IS NOT THE 
CASE.
AS VASSY SAID, IT'S THE LONGEST 
UNDEFENDED BORDER IN THE WORLD.
THERE WAS A SENSE FROM WHAT WE 
SAW PUBLICLY WAS THAT HE DIDN'T 
NECESSARILY HAVE A STAKE IN THAT
ISSUE.
WE SAW A DOCUMENT PUT OUT THAT 
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HOMELAND 
SECURITY AND BORDER SERVICES WAS
INTERESTED IN, NOT THAT DONALD 
TRUMP WAS INVESTED IN.
WE HAVE A LOT OF QUESTIONS HOW 
ALL THIS IS GOING TO WORK, BUT 
IF THIS IS SOMETHING DONALD 
TRUMP BELIEVES IS IN THE 
UNITED STATES' BEST INTEREST, IT
BECOMES THAT MUCH MORE 
COMPLICATED TO TRY TO SWAY HIM 
TO CANADA'S POINT OF VIEW.
WE GOT A BIT OF A SENSE ABOUT 
HOW THAT MIGHT WORK FROM THE 
PRIME MINISTER.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO HEAR 
FROM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, THE 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER.
WE CAN SEE THAT DOUG FORD HAS 
ALREADY BEEN ENLISTED OR DECIDED
TO ACT.
I SUPPOSE WE DON'T KNOW.
HE'S BEEN SPEAKING WITH THE 
AMBASSADOR TRYING TO PERSUADE 
THE AMERICANS.
THIS WILL BE A FULL COURT PRESS.
>> Rosemary: THIS TENDENCY 
TOWARDS NATIONALISM, FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD, IN SOME WAYS 
MAKES SENSE.
FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, WE ARE 
TRYING TO CREATE DOMESTIC SUPPLY
LINES AND SWITCH INDUSTRIES OVER
FROM ONE THING TO PRODUCING 
MEDICAL EQUIPMENT.
WHAT IS DIFFERENT IN THIS CASE 
IS THE RESTRICTIONS THE 
UNITED STATES IS TRYING TO PLACE
ON A PRIVATE COMPANY TO DO ITS 
BUSINESS OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTRY 
AT A TIME WHEN THAT WOULD BE A 
CRITICAL SUPPLY CHAIN, VASSY.
BUT YOU CAN KIND OF SEE WHY 
COUNTRIES ARE MOVING IN THIS 
DIRECTION.
YOU HEARD DOUG FORD SAY IT TOO, 
HE PLANS TO DO EVERYTHING HE CAN
SO WE DON'T RUN INTO THIS.
SO WE ARE, AS CATHARINE'S BEEN 
TALKING ABOUT, OUT IN THE WORLD 
TRYING TO BARGAIN FOR PIECES OF 
EQUIPMENT.
>> Vassy: WE HEARD THAT FROM THE
PRIME MINISTER OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND MINISTER NAVDEEP BAINS,
THE WHOLE IDEA BEHIND THEIR 
EFFORTS TO RETOOL INDUSTRY IN 
THIS COUNTRY TO MAKE IT THAT WE 
ARE NOT AS DEPENDANT ON SUPPLY 
AND MANUFACTURING FROM OTHER 
COUNTRIES.
THE DIFFERENCE IS THEY HAVEN'T 
SAID WE'RE GOING TO CUT OFF 
SENDING THINGS TO OTHER PLACES.
HOWEVER, IF WE STEP BACK FROM 
OUR OWN INTERESTS AND CANADA'S 
INTERESTS, IT DOES MAKE SENSE ON
THE SURFACE, THE MESSAGING 
AROUND THE PROTECTIONIST MESSAGE
THAT THE PRESIDENT IS ESPOUSING 
NOW.
IT MAKES SENSE, BUT IT'S ALSO 
WORKED POLITICALLY FOR HIM IN 
THE PAST.
THE AMERICA-FIRST MESSAGE IS ONE
THAT RESONATED PARTICULARLY IN 
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WE 
KNOW VERY WELL, IN THE MIDWEST, 
FOR EXAMPLE.
AND THE MESSAGE RIGHT NOW IF 
PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES ARE 
CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR HEALTHCARE
PROFESSIONALS OR THEMSELVES 
BEING ABLE TO ACCESS THE 
SUPPLIES AND EQUIPMENT THEY 
NEED, I DON'T THINK HE'S GOING 
TO GET A HUGE FIGHT FROM WITHIN 
THE COUNTRY'S BORDERS.
OBVIOUSLY THE DISTINCTION IS, 
WE'VE SAID THE SAME THING.
SHORE UP DOMESTIC SUPPLY, NOT 
CUT OFF THE SUPPLIES TO OTHER 
COUNTRIES OR PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY 
TO NEXT DOOR WHO MIGHT NEED 
THEM.
>> Rosemary: WE HEARD OUT OF 
THAT CALL YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE 
PRIME MINISTER AND THE PREMIERS,
THE PREMIERS HAVE ALL AGREED IF 
SOMETHING HAPPENS, IF THERE IS A
SURGE IN ONE PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND THEY NEED SUPPLIES, EVERYONE
WILL COME TOGETHER AND MAKE THAT
HAPPEN.
I REALIZE THAT'S IN OUR OWN 
BORDERS, BUT THAT SORT OF 
COLLABORATION YOU WOULD HOPE TO 
SEE IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD 
AS WELL.
IT'S PART OF THE REASON WHY 
CANADA SENT EQUIPMENT TO CHINA 
IN EARLY DAYS, IN A BID TO 
CONTAIN THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
I SHOULD POINT OUT ON THE 
EQUIPMENT, THOUGH, THAT WE DID 
GET THAT UPDATE THAT REALLY 
MILLIONS OF MASKS HAVE ARRIVED 
THIS WEEK.
THERE WAS 10 MILLION EARLIER IN 
THE WEEK, A MILLION IN HAMILTON.
THERE WERE DONATIONS OF SOME 
MASKS THAT HAVE BEEN VERIFIED 
AND WILL BE SENT OUT TO THE 
PLACES THEY'RE NEEDED.
WE'VE TALKED A LOT IN OUR OWN 
NEWS MEETINGS WHAT HOSPITAL 
OFFICIALS CALLED THE BURN RATE.
THAT IS THE IDEA THAT THEY ARE 
GOING THROUGH I DIDN'T MEAN TO A
LOT FASTER THAN THEY HAVE 
BEFORE.
I'M NOT GOING TO LET YOU TALK, 
I'M SORRY.
THE MINISTERS ARE ARRIVING.
YOU CAN START WHEN WE ARE DONE.
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE PART OF THE
FEDERAL PRESS CONFERENCE AND 
WHEN THE ONTARIO BRIEFING BEGINS
AROUND 12:30 EASTERN, WE WILL GO
TO THAT LIVE BECAUSE OUR 
COLLEAGUE HAS DONE SOME 
REPORTING THAT THE MEASURES IN 
PLACE HAVE PRESENTED MANY MORE 
CASES OF COVID AND DEATHS, BUT 
THAT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE IN A 
STRICTER WAY.
HERE IS THE DEPUTY PRIME 
MINISTER OF CANADA.
>> [Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] THANK YOU FOR BEING
WITH US TODAY.
[End of Translation] CANADIANS 
MUST CONTINUE TO PRACTICE 
PHYSICAL DISTANCING.
WE ALL NEED TO STRAY STRONG AND 
STAY AT HOME.
I WOULD LIKE TO SAY SOMETHING 
THIS MORNING TO OUR ELDERS.
OUR AUNTS AND UNCLES, OUR 
MOTHERS AND FATHERS, OUR 
GRANDPARENTS.
I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT YOU A 
LOT.
YOU RAISED US.
YOU'VE BUILT OUR AMAZING 
Y
COUNTRY.
NOW YOU ARE STAYING INSIDE AND 
YOU ARE PHYSICALLY SEPARATED 
FROM YOUR LOVED ONES.
I KNOW THIS IS REALLY HARD AND I
WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT WE LOVE 
YOU VERY MUCH.
WE ARE DOING EVERYTHING IN OUR 
POWER TO KEEP YOU SAFE.
WHEN MY CHILDREN FIND THE 
PHYSICAL DISTANCING HARD, I 
REMIND THEM THAT THEY ARE DOING 
IT FOR THEMSELVES, FOR THE WHOLE
COUNTRY, AND ALSO FOR THE ELDERS
IN OUR FAMILY THEY LOVE VERY 
MUCH.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] CANADIANS MUST 
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING.
STAY STRONG AND STAY HOME.
THIS MORNING I WANT TO TALK TO 
OUR ELDERS, SENIORS, AUNTS AND 
UNCLES, MOTHERS AND FATHERS, AND
OUR GRANDPARENTS.
YOU HAVE RAISED US.
YOU'VE BUILT OUR WONDERFUL 
COUNTRY.
NOW YOU ARE INSIDE AND 
PHYSICALLY SEPARATED FROM YOUR 
LOVED ONES.
THIS IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WE WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT WE LOVE
YOU.
WE ARE DOING AND WILL CONTINUE 
TO DO EVERYTHING IN OUR POWER TO
PROTECT YOU.
[End of Translation] SO TODAY WE
WILL HEAR FROM OUR MINISTER OF 
HEALTH, PATTY HAJDU.
THEN WE WILL HEAR FROM CANADA'S 
CHIEF PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICER, 
DR. THERESA TAM.
THEN WE WILL HEAR VIA VIDEO 
CONFERENCE THE AGRI-FOOD 
MINISTER.
AND THEN AFTER THAT THE 
PRESIDENT OF THE TREASURY BOARD 
JEAN-YVES DUCLOS.
[End of Translation] AND 
DR. NJOO.
>> LET ME FIRST START BY SENDING
OUR DEEPEST CONDOLENCES TO THE 
FAMILIES WHO LOST THEIR LOVED 
ONCE DUE TO COVID-19.
OUR HEARTS ARE WITH YOU DURING 
THIS DIFFICULT TIME.
WE CONTINUE TO WORK WITH YOU 
THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT
TO DEFEAT THIS VIRUS.
WE WILL COME OUT STRONGER 
TOGETHER.
PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO DOWNLOAD 
THE CANADA COVID-19 APP.
WE'VE HAD 123,000 DOWNLOADS OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THIS IS A USEFUL TOOL AND IT 
WILL GIVE YOU UPDATED AND 
ACCURATE INFORMATION ABOUT 
CANADA'S FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19.
IT PROVIDES ACCURATE AND 
DETAILED DATA ABOUT WHAT IS 
HAPPENING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL PROVIDE YOU THE ABILITY 
TO CHECK YOUR SYMPTOMS IF YOU 
FEEL THAT YOU ARE UNWELL OR 
UNSURE.
WITH THAT, I'LL TURN TO DR. TAM.
>> HELLO, BONJOUR.
I WILL START WITH THE UPDATE ON 
OUR CASES IN CANADA.
THERE ARE NOW 11,747 CASES OF 
COVID-19, INCLUDING 152 DEATHS.
AGAIN, THIS REPRESENTS 
INFECTIONS FROM PREVIOUS 
EXPOSURES AND NOT WHAT IS 
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
SO AGAIN, OUR URGE IS THAT EVEN 
IF YOU'RE NOT HEARING ABOUT 
CASES IN YOUR COMMUNITY, IT 
DOESN'T MEAN THAT THERE IS NO 
RISK OF EXPOSURE.
WE MUST ALL CONSIDER THAT ANYONE
COULD BE INFECTED AND KEEP OUR 
2-METRE DISTANCE AS THE SAFEST 
APPROACH.
WE CONTINUE TO TEST AT A HIGH 
RATE IN CANADA, WITH TESTS 
COMPLETED FOR OVER 290,000 
PEOPLE IN CANADA.
AROUND 4% CONFIRMED AS POSITIVE 
AND 95% CONFIRMED AS NEGATIVE.
MAINTAINING OUR TESTING AROUND 
THIS 3% TO 4% POSITIVITY WILL 
KEEP US IN A GOOD RANGE TO 
ACCURATELY DETECT WHERE THE 
DISEASE IS CIRCULATING.
WE ARE, HOWEVER, CONTINUING TO 
INCREASE OUR LABORATORY CAPACITY
TO MAKE SURE WE MAINTAIN THIS 
LEVEL OF TRACKING COVID-19 
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THIS IS A FRUSTRATING TIME AS WE
CONTINUE WITH STRICT PUBLIC 
HEALTH MEASURES, WHILE WAITING 
FOR SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT.
SO FAR, THANKS TO ALL THE 
EFFORTS OF CANADIANS, THE HEALTH
SYSTEM IN CANADA IS COPING AND 
WE NEED TO KEEP IT THIS WAY.
THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE VIRUS 
HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE, LIKE 
VANCOUVER, TORONTO, AND 
MONTREAL, BUT THESE AREAS ARE 
MANAGING TOO.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] AS YOU ARE AWARE, 
COVID-19 CAN CAUSE SEVERE 
ILLNESS, BUT THE DISEASE COURSE 
CAN TAKE SEVERAL WEEKS.
HENCE, SEVERE OUTCOME INCLUDING 
DEATH, WILL NOT BE OCCURRING IN 
HIGH NUMBERS IN THE EARLY WEEKS.
BUT AS THE OUTBREAK PROGRESSES, 
FATALITIES WILL CONTINUE TO 
ACCRUE.
THIS COULD EXPLAIN WHY WE ARE 
SEEING A SHARP RISE IN DEATHS 
REPORTED IN RECENT DAYS.
THIS IS A SAD REMINDER TO US ALL
THAT WE MUST TAKE THIS DISEASE 
SERIOUSLY.
WE CAN DRAW HOPE FROM THE FACT 
THE COUNTRIES PARTICULARLY HARD 
HIT, LIKE ITALY, ARE NOW SHOWING
SIGNS THAT THE EPIDEMIC MAY HAVE
PEAKED.
[End of Translation] AS YOU ARE 
AWARE, COVID-19 CAN CAUSE SEVERE
ILLNESS, BUT THE DISEASE COURSE 
CAN TAKE SEVERAL WEEKS TO 
PROGRESS.
HENCE, SEVERE OUTCOMES, 
INCLUDING DEATH, WILL NOT BE 
OCCURRING IN HIGH NUMBERS IN THE
EARLY WEEKS, BUT AFTER OUTBREAK 
PROGRESSES, FATALITIES WILL 
CONTINUE TO ACCRUE.
THIS COULD EXPLAIN WHY WE ARE 
SEEING A SHARPER RISE OF DEATHS 
REPORTED IN RECENT DAYS.
THIS IS A SAD REMINDER TO US ALL
THAT WE MUST TAKE THIS DISEASE 
SERIOUSLY.
WE CAN DRAW HOPE FROM THE FACT 
THAT COUNTRIES PARTICULARLY HARD
HIT LIKE ITALY ARE NOW SHOWING 
SIGNS THAT THE EPIDEMIC MAY HAVE
PEAKED.
WE ARE HERE TO LEARN ABOUT THE 
LESSONS LEARNED AND PERSPECTIVES
OF ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES, AS WE
ADAPT OUR RESPONSES.
OUR KNOWLEDGE AND SCIENCE UNDER 
GOES EVOLUTION OVER TIME.
THIS IS A PANDEMIC THAT HAS NOT 
BEEN WITH US FOR VERY LONG, AND 
PUBLIC HEALTH COLLEAGUES, 
EXPERTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ARE 
NOW CONTINUING TO LEARN AND 
ADAPT OUR KNOWLEDGE AS THESE 
BECOME AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME.
SO OF COURSE WE OWE IT TO 
EVERYONE TO NOT PUT ANOTHER 
CANADIAN AT RISK AND TO DO ALL 
WE CAN TO STOP THE SPREAD OF 
COVID-19 RIGHT NOW.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU, DR. TAM.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] AND NOW I'LL GIVE 
THE FLOOR TO THE MINISTER OF 
AGRICULTURE, MARIE-CLAUDE 
BIBEAU.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> THANK YOU.
AS MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND 
AGRI-FOOD, MY MAIN CONCERN AT 
THIS MOMENT IS TO ENSURE THAT 
EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO A VARIETY
OF HEALTHY NUTRITIOUS FOOD.
AWS OF COVID-19, FOOD BANKS AND 
OTHER COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS 
CAN NO LONGER MEET THE DEMAND.
THEY HAVE LOST MANY VOLUNTEERS, 
OFTEN SENIORS.
THEY HAVE TO REORGANIZE THEIR 
FACILITIES TO PREVENT 
INTER-PERSONAL CONTACT.
SOME CLIENTS ARE ISOLATED AND 
THEY HAVE TO PROVIDE HOME 
DELIVERY.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHALLENGES.
THAT'S WHY TODAY PRIME MINISTER 
JUSTIN TRUDEAU ANNOUNCED $100 
MILLION TO SUPPORT FOOD BANKS 
AND LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS ON THE 
FRONTLINES.
THERE ARE FIVE LARGE FOOD 
DELIVERY NETWORKS THAT CAN MEET 
THE NEEDS OF THE VARIOUS CLIENTS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
FOOD BANKS CANADA WILL RECEIVE 
$50 MILLION, WHILE SECOND 
HARVEST, COMMUNITY FOOD CENTRES 
CANADA, BREAKFAST CLUB, AND THE 
SALVATION ARMY WILL SHARE $20 
MILLION.
EACH FOOD BANK FROM EACH REGION 
IN CANADA SHOULD BE ABLE TO VERY
QUICKLY CONNECT, DIRECTLY OR 
INDIRECTLY, TO ONE OF THESE FIVE
MAIN NETWORKS.
FOR EXAMPLE, IN QUÉBEC THE 
MOISON NETWORK IS A MEMBER OF 
FOOD BANKS CANADA.
THE REST OF THE $30 MILLION WILL
BE PROVIDED LATER, WHERE WE WILL
HAVE IDENTIFIED GAPS.
[End of Translation] ACCESS 
HEALTHY FOOD IS SOMETHING WE ALL
CARE ABOUT.
COVID-19 IS INCREASING THE 
NUMBER OF CANADIANS WHO STRUGGLE
TO ACCESS FOOD AND IS HAVING A 
MAJOR IMPACT ON THE OPERATIONS 
OF LOCAL FOOD ORGANIZATIONS.
FOOD BANKS OF ALL KINDS ARE 
BEING FORCED TO ADAPT.
TO FIND YOUNGER VOLUNTEERS, TO 
MINIMIZE INTERPERSONAL CONTACT, 
TO OFFER HOME DELIVERY.
THE CHALLENGES ARE GREAT.
TODAY PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU 
ANNOUNCED THAT $100 MILLION IN 
SUPPORT OF OUR ORGANIZATIONS WHO
ARE ON THE FRONTLINES, MAKING 
SURE PEOPLE GET ESSENTIAL FOOD 
SUPPORT IN THEIR TIME OF NEED.
FOOD BANKS CANADA WILL RECEIVE 
$50 MILLION, WHILE $20 MILLION 
HAS BEEN EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN 
SECOND HARVEST, COMMUNITY FOOD 
CENTRES CANADA, THE BREAKFAST 
CLUB OF CANADA, AND THE 
SALVATION ARMY.
THESE ORGANIZATIONS WILL WORK 
WITH LOCAL PARTNERS TO MEET 
URGENT AND INCREASED FOOD NEEDS,
INCLUDING THOSE IN INDIGENOUS 
AND NORTHERN POPULATIONS.
THE LAST $30 MILLION WILL BE 
ALLOCATED LATER TO FILL THE GAPS
AND RESPOND TO FURTHER NEEDS.
I INVITE ALL MY M.P. COLLEAGUES 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO REACH OUT 
TO THEIR LOCAL FOOD BANKS TO 
MAKE SURE THEY ARE CONNECTED TO 
ONE OF THE FIVE PARTNERS.
I WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY 
TO ALSO ANNOUNCE THAT THROUGH 
THE FOOD POLICY FOR CANADA -- 
THROUGH THE LOCAL FOOD 
INFRASTRUCTURE FUND, AS OF 
TODAY, 362 PROJECTS ACROSS THE 
NATION HAVE RECEIVED FUNDING FOR
A TOTAL OF $6.6 MILLION.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] AS PART OF THE 
LOCAL FOOD INFRASTRUCTURE FUND 
WHICH IS PART OF THE FOOD POLICY
FOR CANADA, I AM PROUD TO 
ANNOUNCE 362 PROJECTS HAVE 
RECEIVED UP TO $6.6 MILLION.
[End of Translation] ALL PARTS 
OF THOSE IN THE FOOD CHAIN ARE 
STEPPING UP DURING THIS 
EXTRAORDINARY TIME.
I INVITE THOSE WHO CAN, TO 
PLEASE CONSIDER SUPPORTING YOUR 
LOCAL FOOD BANK OR COMMUNITY 
ORGANIZATION.
FARMERS, THOSE WORKING IN FOOD 
PROCESSING PLANTS, TRUCKERS, 
CLERKS IN GROCERY STORES, AND 
OBVIOUSLY VOLUNTEERS IN FOOD 
BANKS ARE ALL PROUD MEMBERS OF A
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, THE 
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN.
IF YOU'RE HEALTHY AND AVAILABLE,
CONSIDER JOINING THEM.
[Speaking French] [Voice of 
Interpreter] I WOULD LIKE TO 
THANK OUR ESSENTIAL WORKERS WHO 
HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP ON OUR 
FARMS, GROCERY STORES, ON THE 
ROADS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY.
YESTERDAY THE LIST OF ESSENTIAL 
SERVICES HAS BEEN MADE PUBLIC 
AND IT COMES AS TO SURPRISE THAT
THE ENTIRE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN WAS
ON THAT LIST.
TAKE CARE OF YOURSELVES AND YOUR
FAMILY.
IF YOU'RE HEALTHY AND AVAILABLE,
CONSIDER PROVIDING YOUR SERVICES
TO THE SECTOR.
>> THANK YOU.
I'LL GIVE THE FLOOR TO THE 
PRESIDENT OF THE TREASURY BOARD,
JEAN-YVES DUCLOS.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> TODAY THE PRIME MINISTER'S 
MESSAGE IS ONE OF HELPING EACH 
OTHER OUT.
THE FIRST IMPORTANT ONE WE JUST 
HEARD FROM MINISTER BIBEAU, THE 
$100 MILLION FOR FOOD BANKS 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, IN 
PARTICULAR THE SALVATION ARMY 
AND OTHER PARTICULARLY ACTIVE 
ORGANIZATIONS.
THE SECOND MESSAGE THE G.S.T. 
TAX CREDIT IS BEING PROVIDED 
SOONER, IN APRIL.
THAT'S ON AVERAGE $400 WITH -- 
FOR ONE-PERSON FAMILIES AND $600
MORE FOR TWO PEOPLE -- FAMILIES 
OF TWO PEOPLE OR MORE.
IT'S ALSO A MESSAGE OF HELPING 
OTHERS OUT THROUGH THE 
INVOLVEMENT OF THE RANGERS FOR 
THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES IN THE
NORTHERN AND REMOTE REGIONS OF 
QUÉBEC.
WE KNOW THEY WILL PLAY AN 
IMPORTANT ROLE TO HELP PROTECT 
THESE COMMUNITIES THAT ARE OFTEN
VERY VULNERABLE.
THIS IS A MESSAGE OF STANDING 
TOGETHER SO WE CAN KEEP HOPE, 
KEEP TAKING CARE OF EACH OTHER 
TO GET THROUGH THIS CRISIS.
>> THANK YOU, JEAN-YVES.
NOW WE ARE READY TO TAKE YOUR 
QUESTIONS.
[End of Translation]. 
>> WE HAVE THREE QUESTIONS ON 
THE PHONE, ONE QUESTION AND ONE 
FOLLOW-UP.
OPERATOR. 
>> THANK YOU, MERCI.
PLEASE PRESS STAR 1 AT THIS TIME
IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION.
OUR FIRST QUESTION IS FROM 
MELANIE MARQUEE.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> Question: [Speaking French] 
[Voice of Interpreter] HELLO.
THANK YOU.
MY QUESTION IS FOR YOU, 
MS. FREELAND.
IF YOU COULD GIVE US A SUMMARY 
OF YOUR TALKS WITH THE AMERICANS
YESTERDAY REGARDING THE MEDICAL 
SUPPLIES THAT WERE TURNED AWAY 
FROM CANADA AND WHAT DO YOU 
THINK OF THE TRUMP 
ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION TO 
DEMAND THAT 3M STOP EXPORTING 
MASKS TO CANADA?
WHAT COULD THE IMPLICATIONS BE?
>> Answer: ALL RIGHT.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR QUESTION.
THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT 
QUESTION ON AN IMPORTANT ISSUE 
FOR CANADA.
OUR GOVERNMENT IS VERY ENGAGED 
ON THIS ISSUE.
THIS MORNING MINISTER -- ONE OF 
OUR MINISTERS HAD A VERY GOOD 
CONVERSATION WITH THE HEAD OF 3M
IN CANADA.
I WANT TO THANK THE COMPANY FOR 
WHAT IT STATED PUBLICLY 
REGARDING THEIR POSITION.
NOW, WITH REGARD TO THE U.S., 
OUR GOVERNMENT HAS BEGUN VERY 
STRONGLY EXPLAINING CANADA'S 
POSITION REGARDING THIS ISSUE.
IT'S TEAM-WORK FOR TEAM CANADA.
I WAS SPEAKING WITH AMBASSADOR 
HILLMAN JUST 20 MINUTES AGO 
BEFORE THIS PRESS CONFERENCE.
WE UNDERSTAND HOW IMPORTANT THIS
ISSUE IS AND ALL THE MINISTERS, 
THE PRIME MINISTER, MYSELF, OUR 
EMPHYSEMA IN THE U.S. EVEN, THE 
PREMIERS OF THE PROVINCES ARE 
COMMITTED AND ENGAGED.
WE ARE TRYING TO FIX THIS ISSUE.
WE HAVE STARTED SPEAKING WITH 
OUR PARTNERS AND NEIGHBOURS AND 
ALLIES IN THE U.S.
REGARDING THE LONGER TERM, OUR 
COOPERATION IN OUR FIGHT AGAINST
THIS VIRUS.
IT IS REALLY AN IMPORTANT ISSUE.
THE GOVERNMENT IS ENGAGED IN 
SOLVING THIS ISSUE AND WE WILL 
CONTINUE TO WORK ON THAT.
MAY I RESPOND IN ENGLISH?
[End of Translation] THANK YOU 
FOR THE QUESTION.
THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ISSUE AND 
OUR GOVERNMENT IS VERY 
ENERGYICALLY WORKING ON IT.
MINISTER ANITA ANAND, OUR 
MINISTER OF PROCUREMENT, HAD A 
GOOD CONVERSATION TODAY WITH THE
C.O. OF 3M CANADA.
I WOULD LIKE TO DRAW EVERYONE'S 
ATTENTION TO THE COMPANY'S VERY 
HELPFUL STATEMENT ISSUED EARLIER
TODAY.
WE ARE WORKING ENERGETICALLY 
WITH OUR U.S. COUNTERPARTS.
I WANT TO EMPHASIZE THIS IS A 
WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT EFFORT.
ALL MINISTERS ARE GOING TO BE 
AND ARE REACHING OUT TO THEIR 
U.S. COUNTERPARTS.
THE PRIME MINISTER IS VERY 
PERSONALLY INVOLVED, AS AM I.
JUST 20 MINUTES AGO I SPOKE TO 
AMBASSADOR HILLMAN ABOUT THE 
PLAN THAT WE HAVE PUT TOGETHER 
TO REALLY PRESS VERY HARD ON 
THIS.
WE'RE ALSO GETTING SOME OF THE 
PREMIERS INVOLVED TOO.
AN IMPORTANT ISSUE AND WE'RE 
GOING TO PULL OUT ALL THE STOPS 
ON THIS ONE.
>> Question: [Speaking French] 
[Voice of Interpreter] NOW IN 
THE SAME VEIN, MS. FREELAND.
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE 
CRISIS, WE KNOW THAT THE U.S. 
HAS HAD PROBLEMS MANAGING THE 
CRISIS.
THERE WERE THREATS TO DEPLOY THE
ARMY AND NOW THEY'RE ASKING THAT
MEDICAL EQUIPMENT NOT BE 
EXPORTED.
I MEAN, WHAT KIND OF IS THE U.S.
TURNING OUT TO BE AT THIS TIME 
IN YOUR OPINION?
>> Answer: THE U.S. IS OUR ONLY 
NEIGHBOUR REALLY.
THIS RELATIONSHIP IS A VERY 
IMPORTANT ONE FOR CANADA, AS ALL
CANADIANS UNDERSTAND.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF
THE ECONOMY, IN TERMS OF THE 
SOCIAL ASPECTS OF OUR LIVES, AND
ALSO MILITARILY.
AS CANADIANS UNDERSTOOD, IT IS A
RELATIONSHIP THAT'S VERY 
IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF HEALTH.
FOR EACH CANADIAN AND EVERY 
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT WORKING WITH
THE U.S. AND REPRESENTING AND 
DEFENDING THE NATIONAL INTEREST 
OF CANADA IN OUR RELATIONSHIP IS
A PRIORITY.
IT REMAINS A PRIORITY AND IT IS 
FOR THE GOVERNMENT.
I CANNOT TELL YOU IT'S ALWAYS AN
EASY JOB, BUT I CAN TELL YOU IT 
IS A PRIORITY FOR US AND I CAN 
ALSO TELL YOU THAT EVERY 
MINISTER, STARTING WITH THE 
PRIME MINISTER, HAS A GOOD 
RELATIONSHIP WITH THEIR U.S. 
COUNTERPART.
I COULD PERHAPS ADD JUST ONE 
MORE THING.
THE CORONAVIRUS IS A GLOBAL 
PANDEMIC.
IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT FACED 
WITH A WORLDWIDE PANDEMIC, ALL 
COUNTRIES ARE FINDING THEMSELVES
IN A CRISIS, IN AN EMERGENCY 
SITUATION.
DURING A GLOBAL CRISIS, IT'S 
NORMAL TO FIND THIS KIND OF 
ISSUE CROPPING UP BETWEEN 
COUNTRIES.
I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT CANADA 
WILL CONTINUE TO DEFEND ITSELF 
INTERESTS, AS WE DID TO SOLVE 
THE ISSUE OF MILITARY PERSONNEL 
AT THE BORDER.
[End of Translation] ALL 
CANADIANS UNDERSTAND THAT THE 
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CANADA AND 
THE UNITED STATES IS AN 
ESSENTIAL RELATIONSHIP FOR OUR 
COUNTRY.
THIS IS A RELATIONSHIP THAT IS 
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR THE 
CANADIAN ECONOMY.
IT'S A RELATIONSHIP THAT IS 
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WHEN IT 
COMES TO CANADA'S SECURITY IN 
THE WORLD.
I THINK WE'RE NOW UNDERSTANDING 
IT'S A RELATIONSHIP THAT IS VERY
IMPORTANT WHEN IT COMES TO 
MEETING OUR HEALTHCARE NEEDS.
IN TIMES OF CRISIS, LIKE THIS 
GLOBAL PANDEMIC, ALL 
RELATIONSHIPS AT EVERY LEVEL CAN
FACE CHALLENGES.
THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.
HAVING SAID THAT, WE HAVE BEEN 
WORKING EXTREMELY EFFECTIVELY 
WITH THE UNITED STATES 
THROUGHOUT THIS PANDEMIC.
THE RECIPROCAL AND COLLABORATIVE
WAY WE REDUCED TRAVEL BETWEEN 
OUR TWO COUNTRIES IS AN EXAMPLE 
OF THAT, ALSO THE WAY WE 
RESOLVED THE PLACING OF U.S. 
TROOPS AT OUR BORDER WHICH WE 
OPPOSED.
WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO FACE 
CHALLENGES IN THIS CRISIS THAT 
EVERY COUNTRY HAS.
WE'RE GOING TO WORK HARD TO 
RESOLVE THEM.
I WANT TO ASSURE CANADIANS THIS 
IS A HUGE PRIORITY FOR OUR 
GOVERNMENT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT EVERY 
MINISTER IN OUR GOVERNMENT, 
STARTING WITH THE PRIME 
MINISTER, HAS A VERY EFFECTIVE 
WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH HIS OR
HER COUNTERPART.
WE HAVE A GREAT -- 
>> Rosemary: OKAY.
WE'RE GOING TO PULL AWAY FROM 
THE FEDERAL BRIEFING.
MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE 3M 
MASKS SHIPMENT FROM THE 
UNITED STATES.
ONTARIO IS GOING TO GIVE A 
BETTER SENSE OF THE NUMBERS AND 
WHAT THEY COULD LOOK LIKE NOW 
AND TO THE OTHER SIDE.
>> FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF 
TORONTO.
ALL RIGHT.
I'LL LET THEM DELIVER THEIR 
REMARKS.
>> GOOD AFTERNOON, LADIES AND 
GENTLEMEN.
WE'LL DELIVER SOME REMARKS AND 
THEN WE'LL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR
QUESTIONS.
THE INFORMATION IN OUR 
PRESENTATION TODAY WAS DEVELOPED
BY SEVERAL EXPERTS IN PUBLIC 
HEALTH ONTARIO AND RESEARCHERS 
AT ONTARIO UNIVERSITIES.
ALL OF THIS LED BY THE COVID-19 
COMMAND TABLE.
OUR OBJECTIVE TODAY IS TO SHARE 
THE MODELLING AND PROJECTION 
TABLE THAT COMMAND TABLE HAS 
BEEN USING TO INFORM OUR WORK 
AND HAS BEEN USING TO ADVISE 
GOVERNMENT ON THEIR RESPONSE TO 
COVID-19.
WE FEEL IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE 
TRANSPARENT WITH THE PUBLIC 
ABOUT THE SCALE OF THE 
CHALLENGES WHICH TOGETHER WE ARE
FACING AND THE IMPORTANT WORK 
THAT WE ALL NEED TO DO TO HELP 
FLATTEN THE CURVE.
HOW THIS OUTBREAK UNFOLDS IS IN 
THE HANDS OF THE PUBLIC, IN 
EFFECT, IN ALL OF OUR HANDS.
WE CAN CHANGE THE OUTCOME FOR 
THE PROVINCE BY STAYING AT HOME 
AND PHYSICALLY DISTANCING 
OURSELVES FROM EACH OTHER.
NOW, RECOGNIZING THAT WE GET NEW
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS VIRUS AND
THIS OUTBREAK ON A DAILY BASIS, 
WE WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO 
REFINE OUR PROJECTIONS, OUR 
MODELS, AND OUR ADVICE.
EVERYBODY SHOULD TAKE 
REASSURANCE FROM THE FACT THAT 
OUR PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES SO 
FAR HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT 
DIFFERENCE.
WE NEED EVERYONE TO STAY FOCUSED
IN THE WEEKS AHEAD.
SO STAY HOME, STOP THE SPREAD, 
AND STAY SAFE.
FOR MEDIA FOLLOWING ALONG WITH 
THE SLIDES, I'M NOW TURNING TO 
SLIDE 4.
THERE HAVE BEEN 67 DEATHS IN 
ONTARIO.
I APPRECIATE THAT SOME PEOPLE 
MAY SEE DIFFERENT FIGURES FROM 
THAT, BUT THOSE ARE THE FIGURES 
THAT HAVE BEEN PROCESSED THROUGH
THE INTEGRATED PUBLIC HEALTH 
INFORMATION SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH I CAN FULLY UNDERSTAND 
IT MAY APPEAR CONFUSING OR 
FRUSTRATING FOR SOME MEMBERS OF 
THE PRESS, WHEN THEY HEAR ABOUT 
DEATHS REPORTED IN THE MEDIA 
LOCALLY, IT MUST BE FRUSTRATING 
WHEN THE DEATH COUNT DOES NOT 
QUITE TALLY.
BUT IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU 
UNDERSTAND THAT THE CORRECT WAY 
TO TRACK THIS OVER TIME IS 
THROUGH THE INTEGRATED PUBLIC 
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEM, 
IPHIS.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LAG AS 
HARD-PRESSED PUBLIC HEALTH UNITS
INSERT THE NECESSARY DETAILS.
THE THING THAT IS STRIKING FROM 
THE DATA THAT WE THUS FAR HAVE 
IN ONTARIO IS THE HIGH MORTALITY
RATE IN THOSE OVER THE AGE OF 
80.
THUS FAR, IT IS 16%.
THAT IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE LESS 
THAN GLOBAL EXPERIENCE, WHERE 
THE EVIDENCE FROM AROUND THE 
WORLD SUGGESTS THAT THE 
MORTALITY IN THOSE OVER THE AGE 
OF 80 IS ACTUALLY 20%.
THE MORTALITY IN THOSE OVER THE 
AGE OF 70 GLOBALLY IS ALSO 
SIGNIFICANT, AT AROUND 10%.
THESE ARE VERY IMPORTANT FIGURES
FOR US ALL TO BE FAMILIAR WITH, 
BECAUSE IT TELLS US WE MUST 
FOCUS ON PROTECTING THE ELDERLY.
ON THE NEXT SLIDE FOR THE MEDIA 
WHO ARE FOLLOWING ALONG, YOU 
WILL SEE COVID CASES IN ONTARIO 
TRACKED AGAINST THOSE IN OTHER 
COUNTRIES AND OTHER 
JURISDICTIONS.
THE THING THAT I MUST DRAW YOUR 
ATTENTION TO IS THE FACT THERE 
IS A ALGORITHMIC SCALE ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THIS GRAPH.
AND OF COURSE WHAT THAT MEANS IS
THAT A SMALL INCREASE IN THE 
GRAPH EQUATES WITH A VERY LARGE 
NUMBER INCREASES IN CASES.
NEVERTHELESS, IN AN EPIDEMIC 
SITUATION, THIS IS USUALLY THE 
MOST USEFUL WAY TO TRACK THE 
PROGRESS OF A DISEASE.
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THIS CURVE, 
WE ARE FOLLOWING A TRAJECTORY 
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 
UNITED STATES, NOT QUITE AS GOOD
CURRENTLY AS THAT IN 
BRITISH COLUMBIA.
BUT I WOULD HASTEN TO SAY THAT 
WHEN ONE TRACKS CASES, IT REALLY
IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO KNOW 
EXACTLY WHERE YOU STAND.
YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT EXTREMELY 
CAREFULLY BECAUSE IT IS RATHER 
DEPENDANT UPON WHO YOU TEST FOR 
THE DISEASE.
IF I TURN TO THE NEXT SLIDE, WE 
ARE TRACKING DEATHS.
NOW, SADLY, DEATHS AROUND THE 
WORLD ARE MOUNTING.
ONE OF THE THINGS ABOUT TRACKING
DEATHS, AS OPPOSED TO TRACKING 
CASES, THEY ARE NOT SUBJECT TO 
THE SAME COMPLICATIONS THAT ARE 
BROUGHT ABOUT BY DIFFERENCES IN 
TESTING STRATEGIES.
SO HERE AGAIN YOU CAN SEE THAT 
WE APPEAR IN ONTARIO TO BE 
ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE REST OF
CANADA AND TO BE ROUGHLY IN LINE
WITH THE UNITED STATES.
BUT OF COURSE, ONCE AGAIN, WE 
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS 
EXTREMELY CAREFULLY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE 
AT THIS POINT THAT A GREAT DEAL 
HAS ALREADY BEEN DONE IN THIS 
PROVINCE THAT WILL HELP LIMIT 
THE EVENTUAL DEATH TOLL FROM 
COVID.
IF, FOR EXAMPLE, WE GO BACK AS 
FAR AS MARCH 12, WE HAD THE 
CLOSURE OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS.
RAPIDLY AFTER THERE HAD BEEN A 
SERIES OF OTHER MEASURES.
FOR EXAMPLE, LIMITING 
VISITATIONS TO LONG-TERM CARE, 
LIMITING THOSE WHO ARE IN 
SHORT-TERM IN-AND-OUT 
ARRANGEMENTS WITH CORRECTIONAL 
FACILITIES WITH -- AND LIMITING 
GATHERINGS TO 250.
MY MARCH 15, PEOPLE WERE BEING 
TOLD TO PRACTICE SOCIAL 
DISTANCING AND TRAVELLERS FROM 
OUTSIDE CANADA WERE TOLD TO 
SELF-ISOLATE FOR 14 DAYS.
THE PROHIBITIONS ON GATHERINGS 
WAS DROPPED TO 50.
PEOPLE WERE TOLD TO WORK 
VIRTUALLY WHEREVER POSSIBLE.
BY MARCH 17, WE HAD THE CLOSURE 
OF PUBLIC GATHERING PLACES AND 
ESTABLISHMENT BY MARCH 21.
REDEPLOYMENT FOR HEALTHCARE 
PROFESSIONALS.
THEN RAPIDLY IN SUCCESS ON THE 
23, 24, AND 25 OF MARCH, THE 
CLOSURE OF NON-ESSENTIAL 
WORKPLACES, WORK DEPLOYMENT FOR 
L.T.C. HOMES, AND THE 
PROHIBITION OF GATHERINGS OF 
MORE THAN GROUPS OF FIVE PEOPLE.
MOST RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN 
ENHANCED CAPACITY FOR CONTACT 
TRACING BEING RAPIDLY PUT IN 
PLACE.
WE HAVE SEEN THE CLOSURE OF 
PARKS AND OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL 
FACILITIES AND PEOPLE HAVE BEEN 
INSTRUCTED TO LIMIT OUTINGS TO 
ESSENTIAL NEEDS.
SELF-ISOLATION FOR INDIVIDUALS 
OVER 70 AND THOSE WHO HAVE 
UNDERLYING MEDICAL CONDITIONS OR
WHO ARE IMMUNOCOMPROMISED HAS 
BEEN VERY STRONGLY RECOMMENDED.
WE ALSO HAVE HAD EXTENDED SCHOOL
CLOSURES.
I'M NOW GOING TO PASS ACROSS TO 
STENIE BROWN.
>> THANK YOU.
I WANT TO JUST START ON SLIDE 9 
FOR THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING ON 
WITH SLIDES AND TALK A LITTLE 
BIT ABOUT SOME OF THE CAUTION 
WITH WHICH ANY MODELS NEED TO BE
INTERPRETED.
THIS IS TO HELP US PLAN WHAT 
COULD HAPPEN.
I SAY THIS WITH VERY GREAT 
SERIOUSNESS, THEY ARE AN 
ABSTRACTION OF WHAT WE'RE 
DEALING WITH AND THE FARTHER OUT
WE GO, THE MORE UNCERTAINTY 
THERE IS.
WE'VE USED ASSUMPTIONS BASED 
FROM OTHER OUTBREAKS OF COVID-19
AND WHAT WE CAN GATHER FROM DATA
AROUND CANADA TO INFORM THE 
MODEL.
THEN WE MODEL HOW IT SPREADS.
WE DO THIS ON STANDARD 
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS AND TRY 
TO MAKE ESTIMATES ABOUT HOW 
QUICKLY AND WIDELY THE DISEASE 
WILL SPREAD.
IT'S CRITICAL TO SAY WE WILL 
TALK ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAVE 
HAPPENED HAD WE DONE NOTHING.
WE WILL TALK ABOUT WHAT MAY 
HAPPEN NOW GIVEN THE PUBLIC 
HEALTH INTERVENTIONS IN PLACE.
WE'LL ALSO TALK ABOUT WHAT WOULD
HAPPEN IF WE HAD ENHANCED 
MEASURES TO TRY TO SUPPRESS THE 
DISEASE AS FAR AS WE CAN.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT 
THESE MEASURES ONLY WORK IF 
PEOPLE FOLLOW THEM.
THE ASSUMPTIONS IN PLACE HERE 
ARE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PEOPLE 
WORKING TO MAKE SURE THEY STAY 
SAFE AND KEEP THE PEOPLE AROUND 
THEM SAFE.
IT'S IMPORTANT IF THERE ARE 
PEOPLE WITH COVID-19 MOVING 
BETWEEN HEALTHCARE FACILITIES OR
OTHER PLACES WHERE THERE'S MANY 
PEOPLE LIVING AT THE SAME TIME, 
THERE COULD BE LARGER OUTBREAKS.
GOING ALONG TO THE NEXT SLIDE, 
WHICH IS SLIDE 10, YOU WILL SEE 
THE CURVES THAT LOOK AT THE 
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES THAT 
DR. DONNELLY HAS ALREADY TALKED 
TO.
I JUST WANT TO LAY OUT THAT THE 
ONTARIO CURVE IS SHORTER BECAUSE
OF A SHORTER EXPERIENCE WITH THE
DISEASE, BUT THAT POINT WAY ON 
THE FAR POINT THERE OF 
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DEATHS, 
ALMOST 100,000 DEATHS, IS AN 
ESTIMATE OF WHAT WE WOULD BE 
LOOKING AT IN 30 DAYS HAD WE NOT
TAKEN THE INITIAL MEASURES.
I TALK ABOUT WHAT THINGS WOULD 
BE LIKE IF WE DID NOT TAKE THE 
INITIAL MEASURES.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO PRESENT THE 
SERIOUSNESS OF THE THREAT OF 
COVID-19.
AND ALSO THE ISSUE IF WE WERE TO
RELAX OR ASSUME WE ARE IN SAFE 
TERRITORY NOW, THIS IS A DISEASE
THAT CAN REAR BACK VERY QUICKLY.
YOU CAN SEE HERE 100,000 CASES 
WITHIN 30 DAYS HAD WE NOT DONE 
ANYTHING.
IF YOU GO TO SLIDE 11, YOU'LL 
SEE A LITTLE MORE CLEAR 
REPRESENTATION OF THIS.
THE 300,000 CASES WITH A LOT OF 
GROWTH RIGHT THERE.
THE CURRENT INTERVENTION, WHAT 
WE MEAN THERE IN THE MIDDLE, IS 
THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL 
REDUCTION GIVEN YOUR PUBLIC 
HEALTH INTERVENTIONS IN PLACE, 
BUT STILL 80,000 CASES WE MIGHT 
SEE IF THE DISEASE CONTINUES TO 
GROW, AS IT DOES IN OTHER 
JURISDICTIONS.
LOOKING AT CASES HERE, 12,500 
ROUGHLY CASES WE WOULD EXPECT BY
THE END OF THE MONTH IF WE TAKE 
NEW, ENHANCED MEASURES TO 
SUPPRESS THE DISEASE.
IF YOU GO ON TO SLIDE 12, YOU'LL
SEE A SIMILAR PRESENTATION OF 
DEATHS HERE.
HAD WE TAKEN NO ACTION, AGAIN, 
EVEN IN THE SHORT 30-DAY PERIOD 
BETWEEN HERE AND NOW, YOU WOULD 
BE LOOKING AT UP TO 6,000 
DEATHS.
THANKFULLY THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 
ACTIONS TAKEN.
THIS LEADS US TO A CURRENT 
ESTIMATE OF 1,600 DEATHS.
A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN THE 
NUMBER OF DEATHS OVER THE MONTH 
OF APRIL.
WERE WE TO PUT IN -- I MISSPOKE.
1,600 DEATHS THAT WOULD HAVE 
OCCURRED FROM CASES THAT 
DEVELOPED DURING THE MONTH OF 
APRIL.
BUT WERE WE TO TAKE STRONG, 
STRONG ACTION NOW, THE NUMBER OF
DEATHS THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING 
AT FROM CASES THAT DEVELOPED 
DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL WOULD 
BE MUCH LOWER, AT AROUND 250 IN 
THE FUTURE INTERVENTION.
WITH THAT, I'LL TURN IT BACK 
OVER TO DR. DONNELLY.
>> THANK YOU, STEINN.
AS STEINN HAS CORRECTLY POINTED 
OUT, PROJECTIONS AND MODELLING 
OF A BRAND NEW VIRAL DISEASE ARE
VERY INEXACT.
BUT WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS THAT WE
USE THEM EARLY AND QUICKLY TO 
ADVISE US AS TO THE CORRECT 
MEASURES TO TAKE.
AND THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN
ONTARIO.
I WANT TO TURN NOW TO PERHAPS 
WHAT MIGHT BE THE MOST 
DISTURBING SLIDE IN THIS DECK 
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE THE DECK TO 
HAND.
THAT IS THE SLIDE WHICH IS ON 
PAGE 13.
I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE 
ALL ARE ROBUSTLY REALISTIC ABOUT
THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE THAT 
WE FACE.
AND WHAT THIS SLIDE SHOWS IS THE
PROJECTION BY PUBLIC HEALTH 
ONTARIO, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 
THAT OF OTHER HIGHLY CREDIBLE 
MODELERS THAT SAYS THAT OVER THE
FULL COURSE OF THIS PANDEMIC, 
WHICH MAY LAST FOR 18 MONTHS OR 
EVEN TWO YEARS BECAUSE WE MAY 
HAVE A SMALLER SECONDARY OR 
TERTIARY WAVE, OVER THE FULL 
TWO-YEAR COURSE OF THE PANDEMIC,
HAD WE DONE NOTHING, ONTARIO MAY
HAVE SUFFERED 100,000 DEATHS.
THANKFULLY, THAT IS NOT THE 
POSITION THAT WE ARE IN.
BECAUSE OF THE VERY DETAILED 
ACTIONS THAT I READ OUT TO YOU 
BEFORE WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN 
RESPONSE TO EMERGING SCIENCE, WE
BELIEVE THAT IF WE DO ALL THAT 
WE CAN, WE CAN GET A MUCH BETTER
END RESULT FOR THE PROVINCE.
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO BE EXACT 
ABOUT WHERE WE WILL END UP, BUT 
I THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO SAY 
THAT IF WE DO EVERYTHING THAT WE
CAN THINK OF, EVERYTHING THAT 
ALREADY HAS BEEN DONE STAYS IN 
PLACE, ALL OF THE OTHER MEASURES
WHICH ARE BEING CONSIDERED PUT 
IN PLACE, THAT I THINK WE COULD 
REDUCE THE DEATH TOLL IN ONTARIO
TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3,000 AND 
15,000.
THERE IS A RANGE BECAUSE WHERE 
WE END UP DEPENDS ON ALL OF US.
IF WE FOLLOW THE RULES, IF WE DO
OUR BEST TO SOCIALLY DISTANCE, 
IF WE LOOK AFTER THE ELDERLY AND
THE VULNERABLE IN OUR SOCIETY, 
WE CAN GET WITHIN THAT RANGE AND
WE CAN STRIVE TO GET AS LOW AS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THAT RANGE.
SO I APPRECIATE THAT TO MANY 
PEOPLE THESE WILL BE SHOCKING 
FIGURES, BUT THE IMPORTANT THING
TO STRESS AGAIN IS THAT 
EFFECTIVE ACTIONS HAVE BEEN PUT 
IN PLACE, REMAIN IN PLACE, AND 
FURTHER ACTIONS ARE BEING 
PROPOSED AND ARE BEING TAKEN.
NOW, WE NEED TO TURN AT THIS 
POINT TO THE IMPORTANT ISSUE OF 
ALL OF THE PREPAREDNESS WORK 
WHICH HAS BEEN GOING ON WITHIN 
ONTARIO HEALTH SERVICES.
SO I'M GOING TO TURN TO MATT 
ANDERSON FROM ONTARIO HEALTH.
>> THANK YOU, DR. DONNELLY.
GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYONE.
FOR THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING WITH
THE SLIDES, I HAVE ONE SLIDE, 
AND THIS IS THE SLIDE ON I.C.U. 
CAPACITY IN ONTARIO.
WE USE THIS SLIDE, AS I THINK WE
ALL KNOW, THERE ARE MANY 
DIFFERENT COMPONENTS TO OUR 
HEALTH SYSTEM.
IT IS A VERY BIG SYSTEM.
THIS IS A BELLWEATHER MEASURE 
FOR US, AS WE THINK ABOUT HOW DO
WE GET A SENSE OF OUR 
PREPAREDNESS AND READINESS FOR 
THIS PANDEMIC WITHIN OUR 
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.
SO THE I.C.U. CAPACITY IS A GOOD
MEASURE FOR US.
IF YOU DON'T HAVE THIS SLIDE, 
WHAT THIS DESCRIBES IS TWO 
CURVES, MUCH LIKE YOU SAW FROM 
DR. DONNELLY AND DR. BROWN.
THIS IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT 
DATASET BECAUSE WE SUP DATE THIS
EVERY DAY, TOMORROW'S NUMBERS 
WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN TODAY'S.
WE DO LOOK AT DO WE HAVE THE 
CAPACITY IN OUR SYSTEM TO BE 
ABLE TO SUPPORT THE PEOPLE WHO 
ARE GOING TO NEED OUR WONDERFUL 
HEALTHCARE SYSTEM?
RIGHT NOW AND WHAT YOU WOULD SEE
IF YOU HAVE THE SLIDE IS THERE 
ARE TWO LINES ON THERE.
ONE IS THE AMOUNT OF CAPACITY WE
HAVE IN OUR SYSTEM TODAY.
THE OTHER IS THE AMOUNT OF 
CAPACITY WE CAN SURGE TO TODAY.
WE CONTINUE TO TRY TO MOVE THAT 
SECOND LINE UP.
WE WANT TO GET AS MUCH CAPACITY 
IN OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM AS WE 
CAN DEVELOP IN A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD THAT WE'RE DISCUSSING.
THERE ARE TWO BAR CHARTS, 
HOWEVER, ON THIS SLIDE THAT ARE 
MOST TELLING.
THE FIRST ONE WHICH IS IN BLUE 
SHOWS THAT IS OUR BEST-CASE 
SCENARIO, GIVEN THE DATA THAT WE
HAVE AT THE MOMENT, GIVEN THE 
PROJECTIONS YOU'VE JUST HEARD 
FROM DR. DONNELLY AND DR. BROWN.
WHAT'S CORE IS THAT LINE BRUSHES
UP TO WHAT WE'RE ABLE TO EXPAND 
OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM TODAY AS 
IT RELATES TO CRITICAL CAPACITY.
THE OTHER BAR CHART IS WHAT 
HAPPENS IF WE DO NOT ADHERE TO 
OUR SOCIAL DISTANCING.
IF WE START DOWN THE PATHS THAT 
YOU'VE HEARD DESCRIBED BY 
DR. DONNELLY AND DR. BROWN IN 
NOT CONTAINING THIS DISEASE AND 
THIS DISEASE GROWING MORE 
RAPIDLY.
WHAT YOU CAN SEE FROM THE SLIDES
IS FAIRLY SOON IN THE APRIL TO 
EARLY MAY TIME FRAME, IT WILL 
PUSH BEYOND THE CAPACITY THAT WE
CAN BRING.
I WOULD SAY ON BOTH I.C.U. 
CAPACITY AND ON THE ENTIRE 
SYSTEM, YOUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM, 
ALL OF OUR WONDERFUL PEOPLE WHO 
WORK IN IT, WE ARE TRYING 
EVERYTHING WE CAN TO INCREASE 
THE CAPACITY THAT WE HAVE TO 
RESPOND TO THIS DISEASE.
HOWEVER, AS YOU'VE ALREADY 
HEARD, WE NEED EVERYONE TO PLAY 
THEIR PART.
WE HAVE TO TRY TO KEEP THE 
PREVALENCE OF THIS DISEASE TO A 
MINIMUM TO ALLOW OUR HEALTHCARE 
SYSTEM TO BE ABLE TO SUPPORT 
THOSE WHO NEED IT.
THANK YOU.
>> MATT, THANK YOU.
JUST TWO MORE SLIDES FROM ME AND
THEN WE'LL PAUSE AND TAKE YOUR 
QUESTIONS.
SO PEOPLE ASK HOW ONE SLOWS THE 
SPREAD.
I NEED TO INTRODUCE YOU TO WHAT 
SOUNDS LIKE A COMPLICATED 
CONCEPT BUT REALLY IS NOT.
IT'S THE SO-CALLED REPRODUCTIVE 
NUMBER OR THE EFFECTIVE 
REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER OF THIS 
VIRUS.
IT'S ACTUALLY A LOT SIMPLER THAN
IT SOUNDS, BUT IT'S WORTH 
THINKING ABOUT BECAUSE I THINK 
IT HELPS US ALL UNDERSTAND WHAT 
WE SHOULD DO.
SO IF I WAS SITTING HERE WITH 
COVID AND I MANAGED TO GIVE IT 
TO MY TWO COLLEAGUES, THAT WOULD
MEAN THAT I HAD CONTRIBUTED TO A
REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER OF TWO.
IF THEY THEN GAVE IT TO TWO 
COLLEAGUES AGAIN, YOU CAN VERY 
QUICKLY SEE HOW THE DISEASE 
CONTINUES TO GROW AT PACE.
IF, ON THE OTHER HAND, MY TWO 
COLLEAGUES BOTH HAD COVID, BUT 
THROUGH PROPER SOCIAL DISTANCING
AND PROPER HAND HYGIENE, 
ET CETERA, THEY MANAGED ONE OF 
THEM TO GIVE IT TO NOBODY AND 
ONE TO GIVE IT JUST TO ME, YOU 
CAN SEE THAT THE REPRODUCTIVE 
NUMBER THEN IS LESS THAN 1, IT'S
0.5.
OF COURSE WHAT HAPPENS THEN IS 
THAT THE DISEASE BEGINS TO PETER
OUT.
IT'S ABOUT BREAKING THE CHAIN OF
INFECTION.
IT'S VERY IMPORTANT THAT EVERY 
ONE OF US REALIZE THAT WE HAVE A
PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY AND A 
PERSONAL OPPORTUNITY TO DO THAT.
SO WE NEED PEOPLE TO STAY HOME, 
TO STAY FOCUSED, TO STOP THE 
SPREAD, AND TO STAY SAFE.
EVERYBODY NEEDS TO FULLY ADHERE 
TO THE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES 
THAT ARE PUT IN PLACE, BECAUSE 
WE WANT TO AVOID OVERWHELMING 
THE HEALTH SERVICE IN THE WAY 
THAT MATT HAS JUST DESCRIBED AND
THE WAY THAT, TRAGICALLY, YOU 
WILL SEE REPORTED ON THE NEWS 
MEDIA FROM AROUND THE WORLD.
SO BEARING DOWN HEAVILY ON THIS 
DISEASE NOW SAVES LIVES, ALLOWS 
OUR HEALTH SYSTEM TO COPE, AND 
ALSO HELPS THE ECONOMY.
THIS IS NOT WIDELY RECOGNIZED 
BUT IS IMPORTANT.
THERE IS CONVINCING RESEARCH 
THAT SUGGESTS THAT IF YOU BEAR 
DOWN HARD AT THIS POINT, IT 
ACTUALLY BRINGS THE DISEASE TO 
AN END MORE QUICKLY AND IT 
ALLOWS THE ECONOMY TO BOUNCE 
BACK.
SO THERE IS NO DILEMMA BETWEEN 
SAVING LIVES AND SAVING THE 
ECONOMY.
BEARING DOWN HARD NOW ACHIEVES 
BOTH THINGS.
FINALLY, I NEED TO RUN THROUGH A
NUMBER OF IMMEDIATE FOCUSED 
ADDITIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES AND ALSO FUTURE 
MEASURES WHICH ARE COMING.
SO THE FIRST THING THAT IS VERY 
MUCH BEING WORKED ON AS WE SPEAK
IS ENHANCED CAPACITY FOR CASE 
AND CONTACT TRACING.
IN JURISDICTIONS ELSEWHERE IN 
THE WORLD THAT HAVE DONE 
PARTICULARLY WELL, THIS HAS BEEN
VERY IMPORTANT.
IT'S ABOUT BREAKING THE CHAIN BY
ASSERTIVELY CHASING DOWN CASES 
AND THEIR CONTACTS.
THERE IS A SMALL ARMY OF FEDERAL
EMPLOYEES, MEDICAL STUDENTS, AND
OTHERS BEING ASSEMBLED TO 
ACTUALLY ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.
THEY WILL BE WORKING CLOSELY 
WITH PUBLIC HEALTH ONTARIO, WITH
THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH, WITH 
ONTARIO HEALTH, BUT PARTICULARLY
WITH THE PUBLIC HEALTH UNITS IN 
THE PROVINCE.
THE SECOND THING IS INCREASED 
TESTING DUE TO VERY IMPRESSIVE 
EFFORTS BY FRONTLINE LAB STAFF 
AND LAB LEADERSHIP, NOT JUST AT 
PUBLIC HEALTH ONTARIO, BUT 
ACROSS THE PROVINCE IN MANY OF 
OUR HOSPITALS.
WE HAVE NOW ELIMINATED THE 
BACKLOG OF TESTS.
THAT IS IMPORTANT, BECAUSE THAT 
NOW ALLOWS US TO USE TESTS IN A 
VERY FOCUSED AND STRATEGIC WAY.
FOR EXAMPLE, TESTING RESIDENTS 
OF LONG-TERM CARE HOMES AND 
THEIR CARERS NEEDS TO BE A 
PRIORITY.
AS WE HAVE TRAGICALLY SEEN, IF 
YOU GET EVEN ONE CASE IN A 
LONG-TERM CARE HOME, IT IS VERY 
EASY FOR IT TO SPREAD VERY 
QUICKLY AND TO BRING ABOUT MANY 
DEATHS.
[ PLEASE STAND BY ]
-- THOSE WHO WOULD CRY SIMPLY
SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN AND NEED TO
REMEMBER THAT WE NEED OUR NURSES
AND DOCTORS AND HEALTH CARE
WORKERS TO GET TO WORK.
WE NEED OUR LABORATORY WORKERS
TO GET TO THE LABS.
AND WE NEED TRANSPORT TO OPERATE
TO GET PEOPLE THERE.
THE PUBLIC NEED TO BE ABLE TO
GET GROCERIES, PHARMACY SUPPLIES
AND OTHER ESSENTIALS OF LIFE.
SO REDUCING THE NUMBER AND TYPES
OF ESSENTIAL WORKPLACES IS
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
CAREFULLY AND THOUGHTFULLY.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANSZED FOCUS
ON ENFORCEMENT AND FINES FOR
NON-COMPLIANCE.
PHYSICAL DISTANCING GUIDELINES
WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED,
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO
RETAIL SETTINGS.
IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT WE PROVIDE
ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR THE
ELDERLY, FOR THE HOMELESS, FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND FOR
COMMUNITIES.
THE CONCEPT OF A RING OF STEEL
AROUND LONG-TERM CARE HOMES IS
IMPORTANT.
I APPLAUD THOSE JURISDICTIONS
WHO HAVE PROACTIVELY MOVED TO
HOUSE THE HOMELESS IN
ACCOMMODATION WHICH MAY PROVE
LIFE SAVING.
MANY FIRST NATIONS COMMUNITIES
ARE LOOKING VERY CAREFULLY ABOUT
OVERCROWDING AND HOUSING AND,
AGAIN, I WELCOME THE APPROACH
THAT SOME PUBLIC HEALTH UNITS
HAVE TAKEN IN WORKING WITH FIRST
NATIONS TO REDUCE OVERCROWDING
AND, THEREFORE, TO REDUCE
VULNERABILITY.
SOME FIRST NATIONS ARE LOOKING
AT ENTRY RESTRICTIONS TO THEIR
TERRITORY.
HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IS
GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE
IMPORTANT.
WE HAVE TO PROTECT OUR HEALTH
CARE WORKERS.
WE HAVE TO ALLOW THEM TO LOOK
AFTER US.
WE'RE EXPLORING RAPIDLY THE USE
OF TECHNOLOGY TO REINFORCE
SELF-ISOLATION, INCLUDING, FOR
EXAMPLE, ALERTS.
AND ADDITIONAL PUBLIC EDUCATION
AND COMMUNICATION WILL BE
FORTHCOMING.
ONCE AGAIN IN SUMMARY, AND THEN
I WILL STOP FOR YOUR QUESTIONS
TO ANY OF THE THREE OF US, WE
NEED TO BEAR DOWN HEAVILY ON
THIS DISEASE NOW BECAUSE IT WILL
SAVE LIVES.
IT WILL ALLOW OUR HEALTH CARE
SYSTEM TO COPE, AND ULTIMATELY
IT WILL BE THE BEST WAY TO HELP
OUR ECONOMY BOUNCE BACK.
I'M HAPPY AT THAT POINT TO PAUSE
AND WE WILL DO OUR BEST TO
ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS THAT YOU
MIGHT HAVE.
>> OKAY, SO JUST A REMINDER FOR
EVERYONE ON THE LINES.
THE PREMIER'S PRESS CONFERENCE
IS PUSHED BACK TO 2:00 p.m.
NOW AND WE'RE GOING TO TAKE
QUESTIONS TO 1:45.
I'M GOING TO REMIND THE SPEAKERS
BEFORE YOU ANSWER A QUESTION,
PLEASE JUST SAY YOUR NAME.
AND NOW WE'RE GOING TO OPEN UP
THE LINES FOR THE FIRST CALLER.
>> YOUR FIRST QUESTION COMES
FROM MIKE CRAWLEY WITH CBC NEWS.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HI.
MY QUESTION IS FOR DR. DONNELLY.
DR. DONNELLY, I'VE HEARD FROM
LOTS OF DIFFERENT SOURCES THAT
THE REASON THAT THESE
PROJECTIONS WERE NOT MADE
EARLIER IS BECAUSE THE DATA
COMING FROM ONTARIO HAS BEEN
INCREDIBLY SLOW AND BECAUSE OF
ALL OF THE DELAYS IN THE TESTING
AND THE DELAYS IN GETTING TEST
RESULTS OUT THERE.
HOW DO YOU RESPOND TO PUBLIC
HEALTH ONTARIO'S OWN
RESPONSIBILITY IN THE
SHORTCOMINGS OF ONTARIO'S
TESTING REGIME AND THE
SHORTCOMINGS OF ONTARIO'S
TRANSPARENCY WITH THIS DATA?
>> MIKE, IT'S NOT TRUE THAT THE
PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF
MORTALITY WERE WRONG.
THE PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF
MORTALITY ARE NOT DEPENDENT ON
TESTING DATA IN THE FIRST
INSTANCE.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE -- AND
THIS IS WHAT WE DID -- TO MAKE
PROJECTIONS IN TERMS OF
MORTALITY BASED ON THE GLOBAL
EXPERIENCE THUS FAR OF COVID.
AND SO THE PRESENTATION TO THE
COMMAND OF WHAT WAS AT THAT TIME
THE BEST ESTIMATES OF WORST-CASE
SCENARIO MORE TAR THAT WILLITY
WHICH AT THAT TIME WAS 91,000.
I KNOW THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THAT
THIS IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.
BUT WE PREDICTED RIGHT BACK AT
THE BEGINNING OF MARCH THAT THE
MORTALITY COULD BE THAT HIGH
BASED ON GLOBAL EXPERIENCES AND
PRESENTING TO COMMAND IN THAT
WAY LED TO THE IMMEDIATE
DECISION TO BRING ABOUT SCHOOL
CLOSURES.
AND BEYOND THAT I HAVE
ARTICULATED ALL OF THE VARIOUS
MEASURES THAT HAVE BEEN TAKEN.
THESE HAVE ALL BEEN TAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO AN ASSESSMENT OF
WHERE THE PROVINCE WAS.
PUBLIC HEALTH ONTARIO HAS A ROLE
IN THIS SITUATION OF
COMMUNICATING SCIENCE RIGHT INTO
THE HEART OF THE DECISIONMAKING
PROCESS.
AND IT IS IMPORTANT FOR
EVERYBODY TO UNDERSTAND THAT
PUBLIC HEALTH ONTARIO HAS DONE
THAT FEARLESSLY, WILL CONTINUE
TO DO THAT FEARLESSLY, AND
WHAT'S MORE, THAT IS WHAT OUR
POLITICAL LEADERS WANT.
I HAVE PERSONALLY BRIEFED THE
PREMIER AND THE HEALTH MINISTER.
THEY LISTENED RESPECTFULLY.
THEY WERE VERY THOUGHTFUL.
THEY ARE UTTERLY COMMITTED TO
GETTING THIS RIGHT.
I PERSONALLY SIT ON BOTH THE
COMMAND TABLE AND THE EXECUTIVE
COMMAND TABLE AND SO I HAVE A
DIRECT ACCESS ON A DAILY BASIS
TO THE THREE CO-CHAIRS OF THAT
COMMAND TABLE.
HELEN ANGUS, THE DEPUTY MINISTER
AND MATT ANDERSEN, WHO IS
SITTING ON MY RIGHT, THE HEAD OF
ONTARIO HEALTH, AND DR. DAVID
WILLIAMS, THE CHIEF MEDICAL
OFFICER.
SO SCIENCE HAS BEEN TO THE
FORE IN INFORMING THE RESPONSE
OF THE COMMAND TABLE DURING THIS
EPIDEMIC.
>> OKAY, WE'LL JUST TAKE A VERY
BRIEF FOLLOW-UP.
>> Question: OKAY.
I DIDN'T HEAR AN ANSWER
RESPONDING TO THE QUESTION ABOUT
THE DELAYS IN TESTING.
AND MY UNDERSTANDING IS THAT THE
DATA WAS NOT ACTUALLY PROVIDED
TO THE PEOPLE DOING THE
MODELING, THE EPIDEMIOLOGISTS
DOING THE MODELING, UNTIL LATE
LAST NIGHT.
SO IF YOU COULD PLEASE RESPOND
DIRECTLY TO THOSE TWO SPECIFIC
THINGS -- THE DELAYS IN TESTING,
AND THE DELIVERY OF THE DATA
THAT THE EPIDEMIOLOGISTS NEEDED
TO DO ALL OF THIS MODELING.
>> SURE, HAPPY TO DO SO.
THE RELEASE OF DATA IS A THING
THAT ONLY THE MINISTRY CAN DO.
THE MINISTRY HAS DECIDED TO
RELEASE DATA TO ANYBODY WHO
WISHES TO MODEL THIS DISEASE.
I THINK THAT'S A VERY SENSIBLE
THING.
MODELING AS YOU MOVE THROUGH
THIS EPIDEMIC WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED.
AND WE WILL NEED TO DRAW ON THE
VERY BEST BRAINS, SO I THINK
THAT IT'S VERY WISE THAT ALL OF
THE DATA IS BEING MADE
AVAILABLE.
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE EARLY
PROJECTIONS OF MORTALITY WERE
MADE, WERE PROVIDED RIGHT INTO
THE HEART OF THIS PROCESS, AND
SO THEY DETERMINED THE POLICY
RESPONSE.
YOUR SECOND POINT ABOUT TESTING
IS ALSO IMPORTANT.
PUBLIC HEALTH ONTARIO AS A
REGIONAL REFERENCE LAB HAS
RAMPED UP ITS TESTING CAPACITY
CONSIDERABLY.
BUT THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED
SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE REQUIRED
EVERYONE TO BECOME INVOLVED.
AND THERE IS NOW A VERY STRONG
CROSS-PROVINCIAL APPROACH WHICH
MEANS THAT THE TESTING CAPACITY
IN THE PROVINCE IS GREATLY
ENHANCED.
AS I SAID, THAT MEANS THAT THE
BACKLOG HAS NOW BEEN ELIMINATED.
IT IS TRUE THAT THERE WERE
CHALLENGES EARLIER ON WITH
TESTING RELATED TO A GLOBAL
SHORTAGE OF SOME OF THE KEY
RE-AGENTS.
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDED TO
BE OVERCOME WITH HERCULEAN
EFFORTS BY MANY IN THE SYSTEM.
I THINK THAT IT VERY HEARTENING
TO SEE HOW ALL OF THE SYSTEM HAS
PULLED TOGETHER, HAS SECURED THE
NECESSARY MATERIALS TO DO THIS
TESTING.
AND IT'S GREAT THAT WE NOW HAVE
ELIMINATED OUR BACKLOG AND THAT
WE CAN TEST IN A STRATEGIC WAY.
>> OKAY, WE'LL MOVE ON TO THE
NEXT QUESTION.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION IS FROM
SHAWN JEFFARDS WITH THE CANADIAN
PRESS.
GO AHEAD.
>> Question: DR. DONNELLY, I'M
WONDERING IF YOU COULD WALK US
THROUGH THAT RANGE THERE OF
PROJECTIONS FOR DEATHS, 3,000 TO
15,000, IN A LITTLE BIT MORE
DETAIL.
OBVIOUSLY, YOU ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THIS IS A PRETTY WIDE RANGE BUT
I THINK THAT IS THE NUMBER THAT
MOST PEOPLE ARE GOING TO LOOK AT
HERE.
AND PROBABLY A BIT -- BE A BIT
CONCERNED, AFRAID ABOUT HOW
SPECIFICALLY CAN THE PROVINCE
PUSH THAT TO THE LOW END HERE OF
3,000?
>> YEAH, A VERY GOOD QUESTION, A
VERY GOOD CHALLENGE TO US ALL.
LET ME GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF
CONTEXT, BECAUSE I APPRECIATE
THAT PEOPLE WILL FEEL THAT EVEN
A RANGE OF 3,000 TO 15,000 MAY
SEEM NOT JUST SCARY AND
INTIMIDATING BUT TO MANY PEOPLE
UNLIKELY.
AND SO I JUST NEED EVERYONE AT
THIS POINT TO PAUSE AND TO
CONSIDER CAREFULLY THE 
FOLLOWING -- THAT EVERY YEAR IN
ONTARIO THAT WE LOSE ABOUT 1,350
INDIVIDUALS TO NORMAL SEASONAL
FLU.
SO IN A BAD YEAR, WE MAY WELL
LOSE 1,500 TO NORMAL SEASONAL
FLU.
NOW WHEN YOU THINK THAT THE
MORTALITY OF THIS DISEASE IS UP
TO 10 TIMES HIGHER, AND WHEN YOU
REMEMBER THAT WE HAVE NO
VACCINE, WE HAVE NO SPECIFIC
TREATMENT, AND THIS IS A DISEASE
WHICH IS ENTIRELY NEW TO THE
POPULATION, THEN SUDDENLY THE
FIGURE OF 15,000 BECOMES
ENTIRELY LOGICAL AND
INCOMPREHENSIBLE.
NOW THAT BEING SAID, WE HAVE IN
PLACE AS WE'VE JUST DISCUSSED A
LOT OF SOCIAL DISTANCING
MEASURES.
THAT, TAKEN ALONG WITH THE OTHER
PUBLIC HEALTH INITIATIVES THAT I
REFERRED TO, PUSHES BACK, IF YOU
LIKE, IN THE OTHER WAY.
SO THE BEST ANSWER THAT I CAN
GIVE YOU IN TERMS OF HOW WE GET
CLOSER TO 3,000 IS THAT WE NEED
TO BEAR DOWN, WE NEED TO DO ALL
OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE DOING
AND THESE ADDITIONAL THINGS THAT
I MENTIONED.
>> FOLLOW UP?
>> Question: ON THE -- ON THE
HIGH END THERE, THE 100,000
DEATHS THAT WERE POSSIBLE, I
GATHER THAT THIS MEANS IN
ABSENCE OF ANY MEASURES
WHATSOEVER TO ADDRESS THIS
ISSUE?
>> THAT IS CORRECT.
AND THANK YOU FOR POINTING THAT
OUT.
BECAUSE I DO APPRECIATE THAT
PEOPLE WILL FIND THAT FIGURE
UNDERSTANDABLY ALARMING.
SO LET ME USE YOUR QUESTION JUST
TO STATE AGAIN VERY CLEARLY THAT
THAT IS NOT WHERE WE ARE.
THAT IS NOT WHAT WE BELIEVE IS
GOING TO HAPPEN.
BUT THAT IS WHY WE NEEDED TO DO
ALL OF THE THINGS THAT WE HAVE
DONE THUS FAR AND IT'S WHY WE
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BEAR DOWN.
IF WE ALL DO A GOOD JOB, IF WE
ALL STICK TO THESE MEASURES, WE
CAN GET AN END RESULT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 3,000 AND 15,000.
THAT IS OUR CLOSEST ESTIMATE.
WE WILL, OF COURSE, WATCH
CAREFULLY FOR SOPHISTICATED
EMERGING MODELS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD WITH THIS EPIDEMIC.
>> OKAY, WE'LL MOVE TO THE NEXT
CALLER.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION IS COMING
FROM CYNTHIA MULLIGAN FROM CTV.
GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HI, DOCTOR.
COULD YOU SPELL OUT MORE WHAT
THE AVERAGE PERSON NEEDS TO DO.
AND DOES THERE NEED TO BE A
FULL-ON LOCKDOWN?
DO THE EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT
NEED TO BE PUT IN PLACE?
>> SO THE AVERAGE PERSON NEEDS
TO DO THE THINGS THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ASKED TO DO.
THEY NEED TO MAINTAIN PHYSICAL
DISTANCING FROM OTHERS.
THEY SHOULD STAY AT HOME UNLESS
THEY ARE AN ESSENTIAL WORKER OR
WHEN THEY NEED TO GO OUT FOR
ESSENTIAL TASKS.
AND THOSE ESSENTIAL TASKS NEED
TO BE VERY TIGHTLY DEFINED.
SO, IN OTHER WORDS, IT IS TO GET
FOOD, IT IS TO GET PHARMACY
SUPPLIES, IF THOSE OTHERWISE
CANNOT BE DELIVERED.
IF PEOPLE WISH TO GO OUT AND
EXERCISE -- AND I DO UNDERSTAND
WHY IN THIS SITUATION THAT
PEOPLE MIGHT WANT TO DO THAT --
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THEY DO
THAT ON THEIR OWN OR PERHAPS AS
A COUPLE OR VERY SMALL GROUP
WITH WHOM THEY ALREADY LIVE.
IT IS NOT APPROPRIATE IF ONE IS
OUT WALKING TO STOP IN THE
NORMAL WAY AND TO SPEAK TO
NEIGHBOURS OR STRANGERS BECAUSE
YOU NEED TO MAINTAIN SOCIAL
DISTANCING.
PEOPLE NEED TO MAINTAIN HAND
HYGIENE.
THEY NEED TO WASH THEIR HANDS
REGULARLY WITH SOAP AND WATER.
THEY NEED TO USE ALCOHOL-BASED
ANTI-BACTERIAL AGENTS WHEN SOAP
AND WATER ISN'T AVAILABLE.
THOSE ARE THE MOST BASIC
PERSONAL THINGS THAT PEOPLE CAN
DO.
>> I JUST WANT TO REMIND
EVERYONE ON THE LINE TO TRY TO
PLEASE KEEP YOUR QUESTIONS TO
WHAT'S ON THE SLIDES.
THE PREMIER AND THE MINISTER
WILL BE ABLE TO ANSWER FURTHER
QUESTIONS LATER.
CYNTHIA, A FOLLOW-UP?
>> Question: I'M SORRY, BUT MY
FOLLOW-UP IS, DOCTOR, ONTARIO
HAS PER POPULATION HAS THE TESTS
THAT QUÉBEC HAS.
DO WE HAVE AN ACCURATE FIGURE
HERE?
OR IS THERE AS MUCH INFORMATION
AS YOU NEED TO DO THESE
PROJECTIONS?
>> THAT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION.
AND WHAT THAT POINTS OUT AGAIN
IS THAT YOU SHOULDN'T SIMPLY DO
PROJECTIONS BASED ON TESTS
CONFIRMED CASES.
IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT
PROJECTIONS WHICH ARE BASED ON
OTHER THINGS.
SADLY, IN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE
FURTHER ON WITH THE EPIDEMIC,
THERE ARE A MOUNTING NUMBER OF
DEATHS.
AND IN THAT SITUATION WHAT YOU
TRACK OVER TIME IS DEATHS.
BECAUSE DEATHS ARE NOT SUBJECT
TO WHAT WOULD TECHNICALLY BE
CALLED TESTING BIAS.
IN OTHER WORDS, TO ANY
DISTORTION THAT MIGHT BE BROUGHT
TO THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF THE WAY
IN WHICH YOU TEST.
SO WE HAVE USED VARIOUS WAYS OF
LOOKING AT THIS, AND SO WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT THE OVERALL
MORTALITY THAT WE REFERRED TO
AND THE TARGET MORTALITY THAT
WE'RE NOW TRACKING TOWARDS, THAT
IS NOT AFFECTED BY THE NUMBER OF
TESTS OR THE WAY IN WHICH THE
TESTS ARE BEING DONE.
>> NEXT QUESTION.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM
ROB FERGUSON WITH THE "TORONTO
STAR."
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HELLO DR. DONNELLY.
JUST A QUICK QUESTION ON THE
MODEL.
I'M WONDERING ABOUT IT
BECAUSE -- AND I'M NOT
CHALLENGING IT -- I'M JUST
LOOKING FOR AN EXPLANATION.
WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE PROBABLY
HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS MORE
PEOPLE WHO HAVE COVID-19 THAT --
THEN THAT HAVE BEEN TESTED,
BECAUSE NOT EVERYBODY IS GETTING
TESTED.
SO HOW MANY PEOPLE DO YOU ASSUME
THAT HAS THIS BEYOND THOSE WHO
HAVE TESTED POSITIVE?
AND IS THERE A FACTOR THAT YOU
USE, LIKE, IS IT FIVE TIMES THE
TESTING NUMBER OR 10 TIMES
TESTING NUMBER?
>> Question: YEAH, AGAIN, THAT'S
A GREAT QUESTION.
THERE ARE SOME MODELS WHICH
ACTUALLY WORK ON THAT BASIS THAT
IF YOU LIKE THEY MAKE
ASSUMPTIONS.
ABOUT HOW MANY -- IF YOU COULD
CALL THEM UNKNOWN CASES.
LET'S BE HONEST AND FRANK.
THERE ARE CLEARLY ARE MANY CASES
IN THE PROVINCE THAT WE DON'T
KNOW ABOUT.
THAT MUST BE THE CASE.
BECAUSE THE EVIDENCE FROM AROUND
THE WORLD SUGGESTS THAT MANY
PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY YOUNGER
PEOPLE, CAN HAVE THIS DISEASE IN
A VERY MILD FORM.
THEY HARDLY REALIZE THAT THEY'VE
GOT IT.
AND, THEREFORE, THE DANGER IS
THAT THEY CAN SPREAD IT TO
SOMEONE ELSE QUITE INNOCENTLY.
BUT, AGAIN, THESE MODELS IN
TERMS OF THE WORST CASE
PROJECTION, AND IN TERMS OF
WHERE WE NOW THINK THAT WE ARE
HEADED, ARE NOT DEPENDENT UPON
THAT SORT OF DATA.
MODELING AND PROJECTING IS A
VERY INEXACT SCIENCE.
IN THE EARLY DAYS OF AN
EPIDEMIC, IT'S ALL ABOUT
PROVIDING AN IMPORTANT EARLY
STEER TO POLICYMAKERS ABOUT WHAT
THEY SHOULD BE DOING.
THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED IN ONTARIO
BECAUSE AS SOON AS COMMAND
TABLES SAW THE FIGURES THAT
SUGGESTED THAT THERE COULD BE AN
OVERALL MORTALITY OF BETWEEN
90,000 AND 100,000, THEY MOVED
VERY QUICKLY TO SHUT THE SCHOOLS
WHICH WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO.
CAN I JUST THROUGH OUR MODERATOR
JUST REMIND JOURNALISTS,
COLLEAGUES, THAT I DO HAVE
FELLOW PANELISTS WITH ME.
AND I THINK SINCE THE CAMERA IS
JUST FOCUSED ON ONE PERSON AT A
TIME, AND YOU MIGHT MISS THAT
THERE'S EXPERTS BOTH FROM THE
UNIVERSITY SIDE AND FROM THE
HEALTH SERVICE SIDE WHO YOU MAY
ALSO WISH TO ASK SOME QUESTIONS
OF.
>> OKAY, FOLLOW-UP?
>> Question: YES, THANKS FOR
THAT EXPLANATION, DOCTOR.
JUST QUICKLY, SO WHAT IS THE
FACTOR THAT YOU WOULD ESTIMATE?
YOU KNOW, WE HAVE ABOUT LOW
3,000s, 3,300, 3,400 CASES
CONFIRMED NOW.
WHAT WOULD YOU EXTRAPOLATE FROM
THAT TO THE NUMBER OF ACTUAL
CASES OUT THERE?
>> HONESTLY, I THINK THAT IS
VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY
BECAUSE THAT IS A PRODUCT OF
WHAT YOUR EXACT TESTING STRATEGY
IS AT ANY ONE TIME.
AND THERE'S ANOTHER FACTOR IN
ONTARIO WHICH IS IMPORTANT TO
MENTION -- AND I'M SURE THAT
YOU'RE AWARE OF -- BUT THAT IS
THAT RETURNING TRAVELLERS FROM
OVERSEAS.
SO IF I CAN USE PARTICULARLY THE
EXAMPLE OF THE SO-CALLED
SNOWBIRDS WHO -- MANY OF WHOM
OVER WINTER IN THE UNITED STATES
AND THEN TRAVEL BACK TO ONTARIO.
AND, OF COURSE, THAT IS A VERY
CHALLENGING PROBLEM FOR US AND
ONE THAT WE NEED HELP FROM THOSE
INDIVIDUALS WITH.
BECAUSE I THINK THAT IT'S VERY
CLEAR THAT IN MANY PARTS OF THE
UNITED STATES THAT THIS DISEASE
IS HIGHLY PREVALENT.
SO MANY OF THESE PEOPLE, AGAIN,
QUITE INNOCENTLY CAN TRAVEL BACK
FROM THE UNITED STATES AND
PERHAPS DON'T REALIZE THAT THEY
ARE CARRYING THE DISEASE.
AND THIS IS WHY THESE PEOPLE
MUST -- MUST -- STAY AT HOME FOR
TWO WEEKS.
THEY MUST GO DIRECTLY TO THEIR
HOME WHEN THEY COME FROM THE
AIRPORT OR OTHER PORT OF ENTRY.
THEY SHOULD NOT BE STOPPING TO
DO SHOPPING OR ANYTHING ELSE ON
THE WAY HOME.
WHILE THEY ARE AT HOME THEY MUST
ABSOLUTELY REDUCE TO AS CLOSE TO
ZERO AS POSSIBLE THEIR CONTACT
WITH OTHER INDIVIDUALS.
I'M SURE THAT YOU ALL SEE THE
IMPORTANCE OF THIS, WHICH IS
THAT OTHERWISE THESE INDIVIDUALS
COULD INADVERTENTLY FEED THIS
DISEASE ALL OVER ONTARIO.
SO IF YOU KNOW SNOWBIRDS, IF YOU
HAVE SNOWBIRDS AS NEIGHBOURS,
PLEASE HELP THEM OUT.
PLEASE DROP SHOPPING FOR THEM
AND DROP PHARMACY SUPPLIES FOR
THEM.
PLEASE HELP THEM TO DO WHAT I'M
SURE THEY WANT TO DO, WHICH IS
TO KEEP EVERYBODY ELSE SAFE.
>> NEXT QUESTION.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION IS FROM
JEFF GRAY WITH THE "GLOBE &
MAIL."
GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HI, DOCTOR.
I WANTED TO ASK ABOUT THAT
PROJECTION, THE 3,000 TO 15,000
PROJECTION.
I UNDERSTAND THAT THE RANGE
DEPENDS ON THE DISTANCE
MEASURES, WHAT WE BRING IN AND
HOW WELL WE ADHERE TO THEM.
BUT CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT
MORE ABOUT HOW YOU CAME UP WITH
THOSE BOUNDARIES AND WHAT LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE YOU HAVE IN THOSE
BOUNDARIES?
>> WELL, THOSE FIGURES RELATE TO
THE ENTIRE COURSE OF THE
DISEASE, WHICH MAY BE AS I SAY
OVER TWO YEARS.
WHAT PEOPLE DON'T NECESSARILY
REALIZE IS THAT WHEN THERE'S AN
EPIDEMIC LIKE THIS YOU CAN HAVE
A SECOND OR EVEN SOMETIMES A
SMALL THIRD WAVE.
AND SO IF YOU SEEING IFS WHICH
ARE LESS THAN THIS, A LOT LESS
THAN THIS, IT MAY BE BECAUSE
PEOPLE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT THE
FIRST WAVE OR IT MAY BE AS THEY
WERE EXPLAINING EARLIER ON THAT
THE PARTICULAR MODEL THAT HE WAS
SPEAKING TO IS A MODEL THAT IS
FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM.
ALL OF THESE MODELS WORK IN A
COMPLEMENTARY WAY.
THE SORT OF PROJECTIONS THAT I'M
TALKING ABOUT, THE HUNDREDS,
DOWN TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3,000
AND 15,000, THE PURPOSE OF THAT
IS TO DRIVE HIGH-LEVEL PUBLIC
HEALTH MEASURES.
THE PURPOSE OF THE SORT OF MODEL
THAT FINNY BROWN WAS TALKING
ABOUT IS TO INFORM THE WORK LIKE
MATT ANDERSEN AND HIS HOSPITAL
COLLEAGUES IN TERMS OF PREPARING
THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM.
SO I THINK THAT IT MIGHT BE
USEFUL AT THIS POINT FOR ME TO
THROW THIS ACROSS TO STEINNE TO
TALK ABOUT THE WAY THAT
SOPHISTICATED MODEL THAT HE WAS
REFERRING TO OPERATES AND IT
MIGHT BE THAT IT'S A
CONTRIBUTION THAT MATT WOULD
WANT TO MAKE ABOUT HOW MODELING
ACTUALLY ALLOWS US TO TAKE AN
INFORMED VIEW ON ISSUES SUCH AS
HOW MANY VENTILATORS WE MIGHT
NEED.
SO --
>> I'M NOT SURE THAT I CAN HELP
--
>> OKAY.
SO ANYTHING THAT YOU WANT TO
ADD, MATT, ON THE USE OF MODELS
TO INFORM HEALTH CARE
PREPAREDNESS AND PLANNING?
>> SURE.
AND I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S DIRECT
TO THE QUESTION, BUT AS
DR. DONNELLY HAS SAID, AS WE
THINK ABOUT HOW DO WE CREATE THE
CAPACITY THAT'S GOING TO BE
REQUIRED, WHILE WE APPRECIATE
THAT THE MODELS CAN MOVE -- AND
AS I MENTIONED IN MY TALK THAT
FIRST SLIDE -- THAT WE UPDATE
THAT DAILY TO TRY TO MAINTAIN A
VIEW AS TO WHERE DO WE NEED TO
GET TO TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM.
AS DR. DONNELLY HAS DESCRIBED,
THAT CAN MOVE AROUND QUITE A
BIT.
IT'S STILL HELPFUL FOR US AS WE
THINK ABOUT WHAT IS THE SCALE
THAT WE NEED TO MOVE TO TO MAKE
SURE THAT WE'RE CREATING A
SYSTEM THAT CAN SUPPORT -- AND,
OF COURSE, AS YOU HAVE HEARD AND
AS I THINK HAS BEEN A THEME
THROUGHOUT THIS MEETING, WHERE
THAT MODEL ULTIMATELY GOES.
WHAT THESE NUMBERS ULTIMATELY
COME BACK TO LARGELY COMES DOWN
TO HOW WELL DID WE DO AS
CITIZENS TO ADHERE TO THE SOCIAL
DISTANCING.
WE HAVE THAT POWER AND WE HAVE
TO EXECUTE THAT TO KEEP OUR
NUMBERS AS LOW AS POSSIBLE.
>> A QUICK FOLLOW-UP.
>> Question: AND JUST CONNECTED
TO THAT POINT THAT YOU'RE MAKING
THERE, THAT THE 18 MONTHS TO
TWO-YEAR HORIZON, DOES THE
MODELS ASSUME THE SAME LEVEL OF
DISTANCING MEASURES?
OR DOES IT ASSUME THAT OVER THAT
TIME AS WE GET FROM FIRST WAVE
TO SECOND WAVE THAT THESE
MEASURES ARE LIFTED IN SOME WAY?
>> YEAH, A GREAT QUESTION.
YOU'RE NOW GETTING INTO VERY
COMPLICATED FUTURE SCENARIOS
THAT TRULY WILL REQUIRE VERY
SOPHISTICATED MODELS AND A VERY
BEST SCIENTIFIC BRAINS TO LOOK
AT THIS.
LOOK, WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO AT
THE MINUTE IS TO DRIVE DOWN AS I
EXPLAINED THE REPRODUCTIVE --
THE EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTIVE
NUMBER OF THE VIRUS TO BELOW
ONE.
SO THIS IS NOT SIMPLY NOW ABOUT
FLATTENING THE CURVE.
THIS IS ABOUT CHOPPING THE TOP
OFF THE CURVE.
THIS IS REALLY ABOUT TAKING
MEASURES THAT DRIVE DOWN THE
NUMBER OF DEATHS, THE PRESSURE
ON THE HEALTH SERVICE.
AND THE IDEA OF THAT IS THAT IT
NOT ONLY DOES THOSE TWO GOOD
THINGS BUT IT DOES ALLOW THE
POTENTIAL IF YOU ACTUALLY
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS THE DISEASE
TO LOOK VERY CAREFULLY AROUND
THE PROVINCE AND TO SEE WHETHER
THERE ARE PLACES WHERE IT MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE TO SELECTIVELY LIFT
SOME OF THE SOCIAL DISTANCING
MEASURES.
I NEED TO SAY THAT WE ARE SOME
WAY OFF BEFORE WE COULD DO THAT.
BUT THE TIME TO START THINKING
ABOUT THAT NOW IS NOW.
AND THE TIME TO THINKING -- TO
START THINKING ABOUT HOW
MODELING COULD INFORM THAT IS
NOW.
AND THERE ARE VARIOUS THINGS
THAT YOU CAN DO, INCLUDING
BACKGROUND TESTING.
THE ASSUMPTION THAT MOST OF THE
WORLD IS WORKING TO, AND WE HAVE
TO BELIEVE IS CORRECT, IS THAT
THIS IS A DISEASE THAT WE WILL
ONLY GET ONCE.
AND SO IF YOU DO BACKGROUND
TESTING, WHICH DOESN'T TELL YOU
ABOUT WHETHER YOU HAVE THE
DISEASE TODAY, BUT TELLS YOU
ABOUT WHETHER YOU'VE HAD IT IN
THE PRECEDING WEEKS AND MONTHS,
THAT CAN ACTUALLY BE VERY
HELPFUL.
BECAUSE IN A PLACE WHERE THERE'S
VERY LITTLE BACKGROUND EVIDENCE
OF INFECTION, YOU CLEARLY WOULD
NEED TO BE VERY, VERY CAREFUL
ABOUT LIFTING SOCIAL MEASURES.
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A LARGE
PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION WHO
ARE VULNERABLE.
WHEREAS IN A PLACE, PROBABLY
LIKE -- MORE LIKE THE G.T.A.
WHERE WE HAVE MOST OF OUR CASES,
AND, SADLY, MOST OF OUR DEATHS,
THEN IT MIGHT TURN OUT THAT WHEN
WE ACTUALLY LOOK AT THIS THAT
THERE'S A HIGHER LEVEL OF
BACKGROUND INFECTION.
AND IF ENOUGH PEOPLE HAVE GOT
THIS DISEASE AND ARE NOW IMMUNE
TO IT, YOU DO EFFECTIVELY MOVE
CLOSER TOWARDS THE SITUATION
WHERE YOU WOULD HAVE WHAT'S
CALLED HERD IMMUNITY.
WHAT THAT DOES IS THAT IT STOPS
THE CHAIN -- IT BREAKS THE CHAIN
-- BECAUSE WHEN YOU HAVE
SOMEBODY WHO IS INFECTED, MOST
OF THE PEOPLE WHO THEY COME UP
AGAINST HAVE THEMSELVES ALREADY
HAD THE DISEASE AND, THEREFORE,
ARE NOT GOING TO GET IT AGAIN.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THE WAY IN
WHICH YOU MIGHT LIFT SOCIAL
MEASURES, THE TIMING OF WHEN YOU
DID THAT, IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE
DRIVEN BY SOME VERY COMPLICATED
MODELING, SOME REALLY QUITE
COMPLICATED SCIENCE, AND IT'S
GOING TO HAVE TO BE DONE IN A
VERY THOUGHTFUL AND A
DISCIPLINED WAY.
>> OKAY, NEXT QUESTION.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION IS FROM
THE REPORTER WITH THE TORONTO
SUN.
GO AHEAD.
>> Question: THANK YOU, HELLO.
DOES ANY OF THE MODELING
CONSIDER THE GENERAL POPULATION
DONNING SOME KIND OF MASK?
>> THESE MODELS HAVE NOT.
IN GENERAL, THE ACCEPTED SCIENCE
IN TERMS OF MASKS HAS BEEN THAT
THEY REALLY ARE BEST PRESERVED
FOR FRONTLINE HEALTH CARE STAFF
AND FOR OTHER APPROPRIATE
FRONTLINE HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS.
I AM AWARE THAT IN SOME OTHER
PARTS OF THE WORLD, IT HAS
BECOME MORE AND MORE COMMON FOR
THE GENERAL PUBLIC TO WEAR
MASKS.
AND WE NEED TO KEEP WATCHING THE
EVIDENCE ON THIS AND WHAT OTHER
PLACES DO.
BUT IN GENERAL WITH MASKS, IT'S
NOT SO MUCH THAT IT PROTECTS THE
WEARER, OTHER THAN THAT IN A
FRONTLINE HEALTH CARE SETTING.
IT REALLY IS MORE ABOUT
PROTECTING OTHER PEOPLE FROM AN
INDIVIDUAL IF THAT INDIVIDUAL IS
THEMSELVES SYMPTOMATIC.
I MEAN, SIMPLISTICALLY IT STOPS
THEM FROM COUGHING OR SNEEZING
OVER SOMEONE.
BUT, OF COURSE, THE PERSON WHO
IS SYMPTOMATIC, THE PERSON WHO
IS COUGHING AND SNEEZING,
SHOULDN'T BE OUT ANYWAY.
THEY SHOULD BE SELF-ISOLATING.
THEY SHOULD BE AT HOME.
NOW THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IF
YOU SEE SOMEBODY WITH A MASK
THAT YOU SHOULD PANIC AND ASSUME
THAT THEY HAVE COVID.
THAT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT
BE THE CASE BECAUSE I THINK THAT
PEOPLE LARGELY ARE FOLLOWING,
THANKFULLY, THE INJUNCTION TO
STAY HOME IF THEY'RE UNWELL.
BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES.
NATIONAL, CULTURAL, IN TERMS OF
MASK WEARING.
I THINK THAT MASKS IN OUR
CURRENT SITUATION SHOULD BE
PRESERVED FOR THOSE WHO NEED IT
MOST -- OUR HIGHLY VALUABLE
FRONTLINE HEALTH CARE WORKERS
AND OTHER EMERGENCY WORKERS.
MATT, YOU HAVE BEEN VERY
INVOLVED IN THE P.P.E. ISSUE,
THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S ANYTHING
THAT YOU WOULD WANT TO ADD?
>> THANK YOU, PETER.
I THINK THAT I WOULD JUST ADD
THAT P.P.E. IS A SUPPLY CHAIN
AND THIS IS OUR BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IN OUR HEALTH CARE
SYSTEM RIGHT NOW AS WE LOOK TO
OUR PREPARATIONS.
WE HAVE A SORT OF A SIGNIFICANT
EFFORT GOING ON FEDERALLY,
PROVINCIALLY, WITHIN ALL OF OUR
AGENCIES TO SECURE MORE P.P.E.
WE'RE ALSO ENCOURAGING
CONSERVATION METHODOLOGISTS METS
ACROSS OUR SYSTEM.
AND GOING BACK TO DR. DONNELLY'S
POINT, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
IS THE SAFETY OF OUR HEALTH CARE
WORKERS AND THE PEOPLE THEY
SERVE AND OUR PATIENTS AND
FAMILIES AND WE MOVE EVERYTHING
IN THAT DIRECTION TO SUPPORT
THEM.
THANK YOU.
>> FOLLOW-UP?
>> Question: THANK YOU.
THE -- THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO,
THE SCARY NUMBER, THE 100,000
DEAD, THAT SEEMS TO BE AVOIDED
THROUGH A FULL SOCIAL DISTANCING
MEASURES FOR A LONG TIME.
I'M WONDERING, ARE YOU AWARE OF
ANY JURISDICTION THAT HAS
SUCCESSFULLY BEEN ABLE TO
SOCIALLY DISTANCE THEMSELVES FOR
MORE THAN A YEAR OR TWO YEARS?
>> IT'S ANOTHER GREAT QUESTION.
LOOK, I THINK THAT PEOPLE NEED
TO REALIZE THAT THESE ARE TRULY,
TRULY UNPRECEDENTED TIMES.
PEOPLE HAVE TRIED TO THINK ABOUT
HISTORICAL EXAMPLES WHEN SOCIAL
DISTANCING WAS REQUESTED AND
COMPLIED WITH.
AND SOME PEOPLE WILL POINT BACK
TO POLIO EPIDEMICS IN THE PAST.
BUT EVEN THEN IT WASN'T ON THE
SCALE THAT WE'RE NOW HAVING TO
APPLY.
AND SO WHEN PEOPLE REACH FOR
HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE HERE, THEY
ACTUALLY HAVE TO GO BACK OVER A
HUNDRED YEARS.
THEY HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE
GREAT INFLUENZA PANDEMIC OF
1918.
WHEN SOME PLACES DID UNDERTAKE
THE SORT OF SOCIAL DISTANCING
AND OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
TODAY.
THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THAT
IS THAT WHEN YOU READ THE
HISTORY PAPERS -- AND THERE'S A
VERY GOOD ONE JUST A FEW DAYS
AGO, ACTUALLY, BY -- NOT WRITTEN
BY PUBLIC HEALTH PEOPLE BUT
WRITTEN BY ECONOMISTS WHO LOOKED
AT THE EFFECT OF THOSE PLACES IN
THE UNITED STATES WHO HAD GONE
VERY RAPIDLY FOR VERY RIGOROUS
SOCIAL DISTANCING MEASURES.
SO, IN OTHER WORDS, THE PLACES
THAT HAD CLOSED THE SCHOOLS
EARLY AND TAKEN OTHER NECESSARY
STEPS.
AND THE INTERESTING THING -- IS
THAT THERE'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE
IF YOU THEN LOOK AT THE
MORTALITY IN THOSE STATES.
AND FASCINATINGLY, THERE'S A
DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE WAY
THAT THOSE STATES BOUNCED BACK
ECONOMICALLY.
IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS GENUINELY
NO DILEMMA BETWEEN SAVING LIVES
AND SAVING THE ECONOMY.
THE SMART SCIENCE-BASED THING TO
DO IS TO BEAR DOWN HEAVILY TO
PROTECT THE VULNERABLE AND,
THEREFORE, TO GET THROUGH THIS
MORE QUICKLY THAN YOU WOULD
OTHERWISE DO SO THAT THE ECONOMY
OF YOUR AREA CAN BOUNCE BACK.
>> NEXT QUESTION.
>> YOUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM
CHRISTINA TANALIA WITH CTV-24.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HI THERE, THANK YOU
SO MUCH FOR TAKING MY QUESTION.
DOCTORS, I'M WONDERING IF YOU
CAN PROVIDE SOME GUIDANCE ON
THIS.
WE CONSIDER THAT TORONTO IS THE
LARGEST CITY IN THE PROVINCE AND
YOU LOOK AT THE PROJECTED
NUMBERS IN TERMS OF -- THE
PROJECTED NUMBER OF DEATHS, CAN
YOU ATTRIBUTE THEM
GEOGRAPHICALLY AND ATTRIBUTE
THEM TO -- SAY, BECAUSE TORONTO
IS THE LARGEST CITY, FOR EXAMPLE
-- THAT PEOPLE IN THIS CITY
COULD PERHAPS EXPECT THE LARGEST
NUMBER OF POTENTIAL DEATHS IN
TORONTO?
>> SO YOU WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT,
OF COURSE, THAT THE LARGEST
NUMBER OF DEATHS TO HAPPEN IN
THE PLACES THAT HAVE THE LARGEST
POPULATION.
AND IT'S NOT SURPRISING,
THEREFORE, THAT THE LARGEST
NUMBER OF CASES WE HAVE AND THE
LARGEST NUMBER OF DEATHS FROM
THE OUTBREAKS IN NURSING HOMES
OUTSIDE THE G.T.A., THEY ARE
FOCUSED ON TORONTO AND THE
G.T.A.
BUT REALLY THE MEASURES THAT ONE
WOULD TAKE ARE THE SAME.
ONE BEARS DOWN HEAVILY, WHETHER
YOU'RE IN TORONTO OR WHETHER
YOU'RE IN A SMALLER ONTARIO
TOWN.
I DO THINK THAT THERE HAS BEEN A
VERY RESPONSIBLE ATTITUDE TAKEN
TO TRY AND TO ENSURE THAT
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, PROVINCIAL
GOVERNMENT, AND TORONTO CITY
GOVERNMENT, TRY AND TO KEEP VERY
TIGHTLY IN STEP BECAUSE CLEARLY
IF THAT WERE NOT TO BE THE CASE
I THINK THAT THE PUBLIC WOULD BE
CONFUSED IF THERE WERE DIFFERENT
RULES IN ONE PLACE THAN
SOMEWHERE ELSE.
AND I DO THINK THAT THE
POLITICIANS -- TO ALL OF THOSE
THREE LEVELS -- DRAWING ON THE
SCIENCE HAVE BEEN VERY CAREFUL
TO TRY AND TO STAY IN STEP TO
LIMIT THE NUMBER OF DEATHS
WHETHER THAT'S IN TORONTO OR THE
G.T.A. OR ELSEWHERE.
>> FOLLOW UP?
>> Question: THANK YOU, DOCTORS.
AS THE DOCTORS WHO, OF COURSE,
HAVE THE MOST INFORMATION ON
THIS MATTER, I AM ALREADY
HEARING AS YOU'RE SPEAKING
CONCERNS FROM DOCTORS ABOUT THE
NUMBER OF I.C.U. BEDS.
CAN YOU JUST BE CLEAR -- WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH I.C.U. BEDS BY
MONDAY HERE IN THIS PROVINCE?
AND HOW QUICKLY DO YOU THINK
THAT THE PROVINCE CAN RAMP UP
CAPACITY?
>> SO I'M GOING TO TURN TO NEW Y
RIGHT TO MATT ANDERSEN FROM
ONTARIO HEALTH.
HE AND HIS TEAM HAVE BEEN DOING
A LOT OF WORK IN TERMS OF
RAMPING UP CAPACITY.
>> GREAT, THANK YOU FOR THE
QUESTION.
AND SO AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN MY
OPENING REMARKS, WE RIGHT NOW
HAVE A LITTLE OVER 400 BEDS
DEDICATED AND OPEN FOR COVID
CASES.
WE ARE ABLE TO GROW THAT BY
ANOTHER 900.
THAT IS THE NUMBER THAT WE HAVE
TODAY.
AND IN TERMS OF -- ALSO I WOULD
ADD THAT OUR CURRENT CAPACITY
ACROSS THE PROVINCE IS AT A
LITTLE ABOVE 70% OF OUR TOTAL
I.C.U. CAPACITY.
THAT'S BEFORE WE ADD THE OTHER
ADDITIONAL BEDS.
WHAT WE SEE THOUGH IS THAT THAT
NUMBER, 70%, IS AVERAGED ACROSS
THE PROVINCE.
SO WE ARE -- WE DO HAVE TO LOOK
AT LOAD BALANCING.
MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE TIMES
WHEN WE WILL NEED TO MOVE
EQUIPMENT TO PLACES THAT NEED
MORE EQUIPMENT.
OCCASIONALLY WE ALSO NEED TO
MOVE PATIENTS FROM ONE PLACE TO
ANOTHER TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'VE
GOT THE CAPACITY REQUIRED.
IN TERMS OF YOUR SPECIFIC
QUESTION OF HAVING CAPACITY AT A
CERTAIN POINT IN TIME, IT AGAIN
GOES BACK TO THE POINTS THAT
HAVE BEEN RAISED BY DR. DONNELLY
AND DR. BROWN ON SOCIAL
DISTANCING AND MANAGING THE
DISEASE.
IF WE CAN KEEP THE PREVALENCE OF
THE DISEASE TO A LOWER LEVEL,
THE CAPACITY THAT WE HAVE
ONLINE, OR THAT WE COULD BRING
ONLINE, WOULD INDEED BE
SUFFICIENT.
BUT IF THE CAPACITY WAS TO SPIKE
OR THE NEED -- PARDON ME -- WERE
TO SPIKE, THAT BECOMES VERY
DIFFICULT TO PROJECT.
AND SO WHAT WE DO IN ADDITION TO
HAVING THE 900 ADDITIONAL
MACHINESES, VENTILATORS AND
I.C.U. BEDS, WE'RE ALSO LOOKING
TO SOURCE MORE AS THIS DISEASE
GOES ON AND AS THAT TRAJECTORY
IS STILL IN QUESTION.
SO WE CAN GET AS MUCH SUPPLY IN
AS POSSIBLE TO MEET THE DEMANDS
THAT ARE COMING OUR WAY.
>> OKAY, WE'RE GOING TO MOVE ON
BUT TO JUST NOTE THAT
UNFORTUNATELY WE'RE RUNNING
SHORT ON TIME SO THIS IS THE
LAST CALLER.
>> YOUR FINAL QUESTION COMES
FROM TRAVIS WITH GLOBAL NEWS,
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> Question: HI THERE.
AND ANY DOCTOR CAN TAKE THIS.
IT FOLLOWS UP ON CHRISTINA'S
QUESTION AND I'M LOOKING AT THE
SLIDES HERE FOR THE I.C.U.
CAPACITY FOR COVID-19.
AND THE GREEN BAR IS THE
CONFIRMED NUMBERS OF CASES AND
WE KNOW THAT IN THE PAST WHAT
HAS BEEN PROJECTED AND THE
REALITY OF THE SITUATION HAS NOT
ALIGNED.
AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM THAT NEXT WEEK WE MAY
RUN OUT OF I.C.U. BEDS.
SO WHAT IS BEING DONE TO -- IN
THE NEXT WEEK TO GET SOME OF
THESE BEDS ONLINE AND DO YOU
EXPECT SHORTAGES IN THE MEANTIME
AND HOW LONG WOULD YOU EXPECT
THE SHORTAGES FOR?
>> SO IT'S MATT ANDERSON AND I'M
HAPPY TO TAKE THAT QUESTION
AGAIN.
IN THE SLIDE THAT YOU REFER TO
THERE'S TWO LINES ON THERE.
AND THE FIRST LINE WHICH IS THE
CURRENT OPEN CAPACITY.
AND THE SECOND LINE IS THE
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY THAT WE CAN
SURGE UP TO IN VERY SHORT ORDER.
SO IF THIS CHART WERE TO BEAR
ITSELF OUT TO BE ABSOLUTELY
ACCURATE, WHICH I BELIEVE THAT
MY MODEL IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
CAUTION THAT IS NOT LIKELY THAT
IT WILL PLAY EXACTLY THIS WAY --
BUT IF IT DID, WE WOULD BE ABLE
TO BRING ENOUGH CAPACITY ONLINE.
AGAIN, THE CHALLENGE BECOMES
TWOFOLD.
ONE IS, DO WE RECEIVE -- DOES
THE DEMAND ACTUALLY FIT THIS
CURVE?
AND, CERTAINLY, IF IT'S THE BLUE
BARS, THAT WOULD BE A GOOD
THING.
IF IT IS THE ORANGE BARS, THAT
IS NOT A GOOD THING, THAT
BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR
US TO MEET.
AND THE SECOND IS WHAT IS THE
SLOPE.
WE'VE GOT THIS MODEL OUT THAT IT
COULD SPIKE FASTER WHICH IS
ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR US FOR
SURE.
AND THOUGH I SAID TWO, I SHOULD
SAY THAT THE THIRD ELEMENT ON
ALL OF THIS IS MATCHING WHERE
ARE THESE CASES HAPPENING VERSUS
WHERE DO WE HAVE THE CAPACITY IN
THE PROVINCE.
THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR US TO
MODEL.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE HAVE
DONE TO TRY TO OFFSET SOME OF
THE RISK ASSOCIATED TO THAT IS
THAT WE HAVE A PROVINCIAL
COMMAND TABLE THAT IS RUN BY
CRITICAL CARE DOCS AND OTHERS TO
MAKE SURE THAT WHEN AN AREA IN
THE PROVINCE, IF THEY FIND
THEMSELVES IN TROUBLE, THEY CAN
CALL THIS LINE AND WE CAN WORK
TOGETHER TO SEE AS I MENTIONED
IN THE LAST QUESTION, ARE THERE
EITHER EQUIPMENT THAT CAN BE
DEPLOYED TO THAT AREA OR PERHAPS
ARE THERE PATIENTS THAT CAN BE
MOVED TO ANOTHER NEARBY FACILITY
THAT HAS THE EQUIPMENT
NECESSARY.
SO MANY DIFFERENT THINGS THAT WE
HAVE TRIED TO DO TO MAKE SURE
THAT WE'VE GOT THE VENTILATOR
CAPACITY AND THE I.C.U. CAPACITY
IN THE PROVINCE.
AGAIN, GOING BACK TO THE EARLIER
COMMENTS FROM DR. DONNELLY AND
DR. BROWN, SO MUCH OF THIS COMES
DOWN TO WHAT IS THE RATE OF
DISEASE IN OUR PROVINCE.
ARE WE FOLLOWING THE SOCIAL
DISTANCING RULES.
AND ARE WE DOING EVERYTHING THAT
WE CAN TO CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING
THE PREVALENCE OF THIS DISEASE
AS LOW AS POSSIBLE.
>> THE LAST QUESTION.
>> Question: AND WE KNOW THAT
THERE'S AN ISSUE WITH
PROCUREMENT IN THE PAST AND WE
KNOW THAT A LOT OF HEALTH CARE
WORKERS HAVE TESTED POSITIVE.
AS YOU KNOW, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS
USING THE ACT TO STOP EXPORTING
MASKS TO CANADA.
WILL YOUR PROJECTIONS CHANGE IF
WE'RE NOT ABLE TO PROCURE SOME
OF THOSE N95 MASKS FROM THE
UNITED STATES?
>> I THINK THAT FROM A MODELING
PERSPECTIVE I'D HAVE TO HAND
THAT OVER TO PETER OR STEINNIE
TO PREDICT IF THAT CHANGES ON
THE MODEL.
>> SO, ANYTHING THAT CHANGES THE
SUPPLY THAT WE'RE ANTICIPATING,
OBVIOUSLY, REDUCES CAPACITY.
AND AS WE LOOK AT AN EPIDEMIC
GROWING, THAT BECOMES A VERY,
VERY, VERY TOUGH PLACE.
YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT THE KEY
ISSUE IS WHAT WE WERE TALKING
ABOUT WITH VENTILATORS OR
TALKING ABOUT BEDS AND THE
PEOPLE WHO ARE WORKING AND
PROVIDING CARE OR TALKING ABOUT
PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT,
THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING
THAT WE CAN DO RIGHT NOW IS TO
SLOW THE SPREAD OF THE DISEASE.
WHICH THEN LEADS TO FEWER CASES.
THAT'S THROUGH THE TYPES OF
MEASURES THAT WE HAVE TALKED
ABOUT ALREADY IN PLACE OR THE
OTHER THINGS THAT WE CAN DO IN
THE PROVINCE RIGHT NOW.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE REAL KEY AT
THIS POINT.
AND THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT
THING THAT WE CAN LOOK AT.
BUT AS YOU SAID, ANYTHING THAT
REDUCES THE SUPPLY AND THE
CAPACITY THAT WE HAVE HERE.
>> THAT'S ALL WE HAVE TIME FOR,
UNFORTUNATELY.
THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> Rosemary: THAT IS A
BRIEFING FROM PUBLIC HEALTH
OFFICIALS IN ONTARIO AND WE'RE
EXPECTING TO HEAR FROM PREMIER
FORD AT 2:00 EASTERN.
BUT HE HAD WARNED YESTERDAY THAT
SOME OF THESE PROJECTIONS AND
MODELING WOULD BE GRIM, IT WOULD
BE DIFFICULT TO HEAR.
INDEED, IT'S THE FIRST PROVINCE
IN THIS COUNTRY THAT HAS PUT AN
ESTIMATE OR A PROJECTION ON THE
TABLE WHEN IT COMES TO THE
NUMBER OF DEATHS.
THE ONTARIO DOCTORS THERE ALSO
WARNING THAT PROJECTING AND
MODELING IS AN INEXACT SCIENCE,
OBVIOUSLY, WHEN THEY'RE DEALING
WITH A LOT OF UNKNOWNS.
BUT THAT THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY,
CERTAINLY, THAT IF NO MEASURES
HAD BEEN PUT IN PLACE -- NONE
WHATSOEVER -- THAT POSSIBLY
100,000 PEOPLE IN THIS POLICE PE
COULD HAVE DIED.
WITH THE SOCIAL AND THE PHYSICAL
DISTANCING MEASURES AND THE
RESTRICTIONS ON MOVEMENT AND
TRAVEL THAT ARE IN PLACE NOW,
THE SHUTTING DOWN OF SCHOOLS AND
ESSENTIAL SERVICES,
NON-ESSENTIAL SERVICES, RATHER,
PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS NOW SAY
THAT IT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
3,000 TO 15,000.
AGAIN, A WIDE RANGE OF PROJECTED
FATALITIES DUE TO COVID-19.
BUT ANOTHER REASON THEY SAY TO
KEEP UP THESE IMPORTANT MEASURES
OF PHYSICAL DISTANCING TO LIMIT
THE SPREAD OF THIS DISEASE.
PREMIER FORD WILL BE ASKED MORE
QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS AT THE TOP
OF THE HOUR.
I'M ROSEMARY BARTON.
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING OUR
ONGOING COVERAGE.
ANDREW NICHOLS WILL PICK UP
AFTER THIS SHORT BREAK.
(♪♪♪)
