Hey welcome everyone!
Hey this is my craziest video yet. I am
going to go through
3 different models showing you how insane
tesla's share price could be - How crazy
amazing Tesla could change the world,
accelerate the transition to sustainable energy,
make ridiculous profits and drive the
share price to
levels you would not believe. Unbelievable!
I don't believe it. I think i'm probably crazy.
But the models make sense to me. I'm sure
there are flaws in these models so
please go through this video and pick it apart.
Yell me in the comments why you think I'm wrong.
Get me back to numbers that are
realistic. Because i am going to tell you
right now I believe the Tesla share
price in 2030 will be more
than 100 000 a share. I
know it's crazy, but check out these
models and tell me what you think. Ready? Let's go!
I'm going to look at this three different ways.
The first way is how a lot of Wall Street
and retail investors are looking at Tesla.
Looking at vehicle production. Looking at
gross margins. This is what we see
from particularly from Hyperchange. I'm
a huge fan of Hyperchange.
It's going to be epic! So much to cover anyway.
Let's just get into it.
Welcome to the world of Hypercharts.
Here we are with vehicle deliveries ...
I think the Wall Street - I think he
too closely mimics
the Wall Street analysis approach. 
I love his channel. I love his analysis.
And as much of an optimist I think he is,
I think he's understating the Tesla case.
But you see it from a lot of Wall
Streeters. This is how many vehicles
they're going to produce. This is what
their margins are.
I think that misses the Tesla story. That
misses where this is going.
So the second way I'm going to talk
about it is the way I've been talking
about it before. But i'm going to
extrapolate those numbers out to 2025
and 2030.
I'm going to give you some hard numbers.
I did my own spreadsheet.
This is the Robotaxi model. This is how
many Robotaxis Tesla will produce by year.
How many Robotaxis they will own.
On the theory that Tesla will own its
own Robotaxis. How much profit
they will make per Robotaxi.
How much that adds up to, and what that
means for market cap and share price. 
And the third approach
is something novel that I'm just working
on now myself. I'm trying to work this through.
It's dollars per kilowatt hour. This is
the idea that Tesla is really at its core a battery
company and that everything else springs off
battery production. That Tesla is battery constrained so
they are limited in how much money they
can make,
and how much they can accelerate the
transition to sustainable energy.
They are limited by battery production,
so battery production is the ultimate
driver of Tesla's profits, and of our
society's move off of fossil fuels,
onto more sustainable forms of energy. So
I'm going to look at it in terms of
dollars per kilowatt hour. This goes
toward my thesis that the long run Tesla Robotaxi
will be smaller and will use smaller
battery packs. But i'm going to get into
this again. First we're just going to talk
about vehicle production and profit per vehicle
What I consider a
more simplistic Wall Wtreet type analysis.
And we're going to go to the Robotaxi
model and last we're going to talk about
the battery model.
Release the Titan!
So let's start with the standard Wall Street
type analysis. Let's look at how many
vehicles Tesla is going to produce
and how much money they'll make per
vehicle if they just sell the vehicles.
And then what does that mean in terms of
profit per year, and what does that mean
in terms of market cap and share price.
I'm going to start with the assumption -
this is a big assumption, and it's an aggressive assumption - remember this is the bull case -
that Tesla's growth will be 50 percent a
year out into 2030. That Tesla will continue
producing more and more vehicles.
"Elon has mentioned a 50% compound annual
growth target for Tesla in the past. Is this
still in line with Tesla's ambitions for
the next five to ten years?
I think 50% is is the the likely number.
It's possible that is 40%.
I would be very shocked if it's less than 40%.
Even with force majeure, short of World War 3.
This is an aggressive case and the
numbers I'm going to come up with
are going to be even bigger than what where
you think I might be going.
We're going to have to tamper that with
the reality that at some point there
probably will be some limitation on
where we're going
i'm going to start with the assumption
that 2021
involves 1 million vehicles produced
i think this is actually an
understatement of how many vehicles the
tesla will produce
i expect they will produce 500 000
vehicles out of fremont alone
they will be in the ballpark of maybe
500 000 vehicles produced in shanghai
berlin is going to produce a lot of
vehicles it may approach 500 000 but
let's say 200
000 texas will produce vehicles
i think we're going to see tesla produce
1.5 million vehicles
in 2021 but i'm stating it as a million
and i understand that's aggressive
because
a lot of projections are for 750 000
vehicles
in 2021. i don't think it matters a
whole lot when you go down the road
but i want to give some sense of where i
think this is going let's start with the
assumption
that tesla produces a million vehicles
in 2021
that they make a profit of five thousand
dollars per vehicle
maybe it's a thousand maybe it's six
thousand i'm just trying to work with a
number here
i believe that they're getting margins
up they're getting costs down
looking at the ballpark of a 20 margin
on a 40 000
vehicle that's more than 5 000 profit
for a vehicle so
let's go with 5 000. the thing that's
really going to have a profound effect
on our financials is high volume
and high margin that high margin part
comes from autonomy do people buy the
the full self driving package or not
as we get close to full stop driving
that's just gonna become more and more
compelling for a financial standpoint
that's the real
mind-blowing situation is high volume
high margin
because of autonomy at five thousand
dollars profit per vehicle
and a million vehicles produced that's
five billion dollars in profit
for market cap you would look at the
price earnings ratio
you'd say okay they made five billion
dollars
keep in mind i don't think in the short
run tesla will actually earn five
billion dollars in profit
i think tesla is suppressing their
profits in order to
increase growth twenty percent margins
forty five thousand fifty thousand
dollar vehicle be a ten thousand dollar
property per vehicle
i don't think it's crazy to talk about
five thousand dollars for vehicle profit
but the price earnings ratio is what
matters here when you're trying to
determine market cap how much is the
company
worth when you have a company that's
stable that's not growing particularly
you might see a price earnings ratio of
10.
when you have a company that's growing
well you're looking at a price earnings
ratio of 20.
when you get to companies that are
growing very fast you can see very high
price earnings ratios of 30 or more
that is the price of the company over
the earnings the ratio there
so i don't think 30 is an unreasonable
price earnings ratio for a fast growing
company
so if we assume a price earnings ratio
of 30 and 5 billion dollars of profit
we get to a market cap for a tesla of
150 billion dollars which is actually
less
than the current market cap at that
valuation
tesla is worth 750 a share in 2021.
now you could say wait a minute they're
making more than five thousand dollars a
vehicle they're making ten thousand
dollars a vehicle if you did that you'd
have 10 billion dollars in profit
you'd have a 300 billion dollar market
cap which is about where we are now
and a share price of around 1500 the
share price is assuming there are 200
million shares
i think there's 180 million right now
but we're expecting some dilution some
additional shares to be
created so i'm using 200 just as a
shorthand this is a simplified analysis
going forward the key here is we're
looking at 50
growth year over year so in 2022 tesla
produces 1.5 million vehicles in 2023
it's 2.25 million vehicles
in 2025 that's five million vehicles
produced if you're only making five
thousand dollars in profit per vehicle
and you produce five million vehicles
you get
25 billion dollars in profit with a
price earnings ratio of 30
and 25 billion dollars of profit you're
looking at a 750 billion dollar market
cap
approaching a trillion dollar market cap
and the tesla share price
is around thirty eight hundred dollars a
share in 2025.
if you say we're making 10 million
dollars a vehicle that shoots up to a
1.5 trillion dollar market cap
and 7 500 share price again this
is using what i consider to be the
conservative wall street approach
to how tesla's profits you know pricing
profits per vehicle translate to profits
overall
market cap and share price you continue
on this path of 50 increase in vehicle
production
you get to 7.5 million vehicles in 2026
you get to 11 million vehicles in 2027.
you get out to 2030 and it's
38 million vehicles produced and if
you're only making
five thousand dollars a vehicle at 38
million vehicles
you're talking about nearly 200 billion
dollars in profit
for tesla at a price earning earnings
ratio
of 30 that's a nearly six trillion
dollar market cap and a share price of
28 000
a share more than 28 000 a share
if you assume that tesla's improved
their efficiencies and their they've
managed to turn into
a ten thousand dollar profit per vehicle
it's a market cap
of over 11 trillion and a share price of
nearly sixty thousand dollars a share
these are really aggressive numbers i
know but
i think they actually understate the
tesla bull case of where this is going
i should talk for a second there are
things that are going to limit
tesla's growth in theory competition
will arise
i don't see it yet i see tesla being in
the lead
volkswagen just said tesla is 10 years
ahead
i think that other car companies are
going to collapse
i think tesla is going to be one of the
few remaining car companies
and the other car companies will be
supplying the internal combustion engine
market which will be shrinking
it is the electric vehicle market and
tesla is dominating it and no one is
coming along so far who is close
to adopting tesla's model which is the
machine that builds the machine no one
is talking about
people are talking about making electric
vehicles tesla's talking about making
the machine that builds the machine
i've given you the rough wall street
style bull case
for where this would go tesla rapidly
increases production
makes a certain reasonable profit per
vehicle and they get to a share price of
somewhere between
twenty five thousand and sixty thousand
dollars a share
by twenty thirty that's a pretty good
bull case
but it understates it so let's talk
about the robo-taxi model i made videos
about this before
this is a somewhat radical theory elon
has hinted that this is where we're
going
a tesla will stop selling cars that
tesla will produce
its own robo taxis it will keep them
itself and it will operate its own robo
taxi network
with its own vehicles any locations
where there's not enough supply for
sharing
uh tesla will just make its own cars and
add them to the network in that place
that is where i think this is going and
that is the model i'm about to go over
with you
we'll go with the same assumptions about
vehicle production
that vehicle production will increase at
50 percent a year
the battery model i'm going to talk
about later is going to go with some
different assumptions but let's just go
with this now
50 a year increase in production
starting with a million vehicles
produced
in 2021. i don't believe tesla is going
to stop selling cars in 2021.
i think the stopping the sale of cars is
going to happen
2022 2023 somewhere like that the tesla
will begin
rat once fsd goes live once the robo
taxi network goes live
the price of a tesla vehicle goes to two
or three hundred thousand dollars a
vehicle
and very few people will buy them tesla
will keep them
yes we'll operate them as robo taxis
this is the plan
i understand you may think it's crazy
check out my earlier videos tesla will
stop selling cars
i think it explains it i think it makes
perfect sense and elon has
hinted at least that that's where
they're going
same projections a million robo taxis
produced in 2021
2023 it's 2.25 million vehicles produced
2025 it's 5 million vehicles produced
and 20 30 it's 38 million vehicles
produced
now this assumption is off a little bit
that i'm going to make right now
that tesla keeps every vehicle it
produces so
instead of basing this on the vehicles
produced that year it's based on the
accumulated production
and really to make this analysis fair
and i didn't
do my numbers this way you would
probably deduct all the vehicles from
2021 from this analysis
and a lot of the vehicles from 2022 but
because the
vehicle production is growing at 50
percent a year exponentially
that's a small portion of the vehicles
and it's a trivial impact
on the ultimate analysis let's go with
it it's an assumption it's a model i
know it's not perfect
elon stated at autonomy day a projection
that the robo taxi that each robo taxi
would produce
thirty thousand dollars a day a year in
profit you say what would be the
probable gross profit from a single robo
taxi
we think probably something on the order
of 30 000 dollars per year
and we're designing the cars for a
million mile life as well a nominal
dollars that would be a little over 300
000 over the course of 11 years
might be higher i think these
consumptions are actually relatively
conservative
elon said at autonomy day that a typical
robo taxi would produce 30 000
a year in profit some complicated
analysis to that
uh it's not really that complicated i
think it's actually going to be higher
than that at least at the beginning
but i'm going with for this particular
approach right now
a 30 000 year profit per vehicle so
assume tesla builds a million vehicles a
million robo taxis
and operates them itself a million
vehicles
making thirty thousand dollars in profit
a year that's 30
billion dollars a year in profit from
operating the robo taxi network with one
million vehicles
at a market cap based on a price
earnings ratio of 30
that is a 900 million dollar
market cap it is a 900 billion dollar
market cap
is a tesla share price of 4 500 a share
i want to stress again this is
accelerating the transition
to sustainable energy these million
vehicles are taking
five million or more internal combustion
engine vehicles off the road
eliminating that pollution it is
shifting
millions of tr of trips from
gasoline-powered or diesel-powered trips
to electric-powered trips that is making
our world a better place whether you
believe in climate or change or not
reducing pollution there's all kinds of
other pollution coming out of those
tailpipes
this is a great thing but that's only
the beginning
you go to 2022 it's a million and a half
vehicles produced
but you add that to the first million
vehicles so now you have two and a half
million robo taxis running
making thirty thousand dollars a year in
profit 75 billion dollars in profit for
tesla
price earnings ratio of 30. it's a 2.25
trillion dollar market cap and 11 000
share price
and we're only in 2022. i'm not talking
about tesla energy
i'm not talking about the money tesla
might make from selling
video game services or other services
inside the car
there's a lot of theories about how else
tesla might make money
from its robo-taxi network from its
vehicles that have this software enabled
i'm not talking about any of that
because i think that type of income is
trivial
compared to the robo taxi network the
tesla team elon
and zach said that in the conference
called yes there's other software
revenue potential
but the robo taxi revenue potential
outstrips everything
and right now by far by far fsd is
just overwhelmingly the most important
thing everything else is pretty small by
comparison
now when things do become full
self-driving so what are people going to
do in the car
well i guess we're probably going to do
productivity and entertainment of some
kind
you know watch movies play games and do
work
yeah fsd remains by far and away the
biggest opportunity in the near term
but we're putting the plumbing in place
to be ready to scale other areas
when the time is right so premium
connectivity subscription is something
that we put in place
and the ability to upgrade your vehicle
through the app for example on
acceleration boost
or upgrading a standard range model 3 to
a standard plus
adding rear heated seats so these are
things that
we have and we're continuing to get
feedback from the field and other things
that we can launch and we'll trickle
those in with time
yeah but they're all very tiny compared
with like
the like the step change to full self
driving depending upon
how you calculate it is probably worth
not you know at least a hundred thousand
dollars per car
so that's a lot of software you have to
sell yeah tesla energy
could be a lot of revenue and i didn't
factor that in if you follow some
people's
views that's going to be big too so i'm
being conservative by leaving out the
money from tesla energy
let's take this out to 2025. tesla
produces
five million vehicles in 2025. you add
that to all the robo taxis that were
produced in the
four preceding years and you get to 13
million
tesla robo taxis operating on the roads
if each tesla robo taxi is making 30 000
a year in profit now you're talking
about
395 billion dollars in profit
for that year from operating the robo
taxi network alone
nearly 400 billion dollars in profit
at a price earnings ratio of 30 that is
12 trillion dollar market cap
that is a 60 000 share price 12 trillion
dollar market cap
60 000 share price i want to get into
that limiting factor thing again
at some point i believe that tesla will
have to lower the price
of rides in its robo-taxi network but i
think that's a long ways away
currently it costs in the ballpark of
two to three dollars a mile
to use an uber these numbers are
predicated on tesla charging only
a dollar a mile for the rides which is a
big big drop
from what uber and lyft are charging and
i believe there's a lot of people
who are going to be thrilled to not have
to own a car and be able to ride around
at a dollar a mile it's going to save
20 of the population of the first world
of the united states and europe and
japan and australia
even places like south korea it's going
to save a lot of people so much money
that they're going to be happy
to jump into a robo taxi and not have to
worry about taking care of a car i don't
think this level of robo taxis 13
million robo taxis
which replaces about 65 million uh
internal combustion engine cars
or maybe 100 million that's not enough
to
hit the point where prices are going to
fall but i do think they will fall
eventually so that's another thing
that's going to limit the numbers we're
going to head to
but let's skip forward 2027 tesla
produces 12 11 million vehicles there's
a total of 32 million robo taxis in
their stable by 2030
tesla producing 38 million robo taxis
tesla would have
over a hundred million robo taxis
operating on the roads
assuming they make thirty thousand
dollars in profit a year i'm going to
give you more conservative numbers in a
minute
but assuming they make 30 000 a year in
profit
per vehicle or robo taxi that's 3.4
trillion dollars in profit in 2030
that is a market cap of 100 trillion
dollars and a share price
of 500 000 going to that limiting factor
we were talking about
let's change the assumptions let's say
tesla only makes 20 000 a vehicle twenty
thousand dollars
prices have come down and tesla only
makes twenty thousand dollars a year in
profit
on its robo taxi network if you drop it
to twenty thousand dollars a year
then profit in 2025 is only 200 only
263 billion dollars
the market cap is only 8 trillion and
the share price is only 40 000
only in 2030 it's a 2.2
trillion dollar annual profit
a 68 trillion dollar market cap and a
share price of 340 thousand dollars
if you go further and you say you know
what there's gonna be so much
competition there's gonna be so much
pressure on tesla's pricing for its robo
taxi network
they're only going to make ten thousand
dollars a vehicle in 2030.
okay that's only an annual profit of 1.1
trillion dollars
it's only a market cap of 34 trillion
dollars and it's only a share price of a
hundred and seventy thousand dollars
if you buy into the robo taxi model
then a 170 000 share price
in 2030 is a conservative estimate
you're looking at a share price in 2025
of 20
000 that's assuming a lot of the
limiting factors come into play and
reduce tesla's profits
and ultimately reduce market cap and
share price and that's not even getting
into
the battery model that i'm going to talk
about next hang on hold on to your seats
it's coming it's not going to be that
much bigger than the robo taxi model i
described but it is going to be bigger
so the third model is something
completely different
this is something that i've been stewing
on for a while
i talked about it in a recent interview
i think the way we're thinking about
tesla misses where the company is really
going it's not a car
company it's not a robo taxi company
either
although that's the model i just used
which i found really compelling
but another way of looking at tesla is
as a battery
company the really big change the
software for self-driving is a huge
change that's a monstrous change
but tesla is producing a ridiculous
increase
in battery availability and there's the
battery productions going through the
roof
the number of lithium ion batteries the
kilowatt hours or megawatt hours or
gigawatt hours
of battery production in the world was
much smaller and
tesla is going to accelerate it
extremely rapidly
and elon has repeatedly mentioned and
not just elon the tesla team repeatedly
talks about
batteries as the constraint on the
things that tesla wants to do
to grow revenue to grow profit and to
accelerate the transition to sustainable
energy
does this shift from smaller pack
vehicles suggest that tesla is
not battery constrained as in the past
well i'd just like to reinforce
emphasize
you know any mining companies out there
please mine more nickel
okay wherever you are in the world
please mine more nickel
tesla will give you a giant contract for
a long period of time
hopefully this message goes out to all
mining companies please get nickel
so instead of thinking about tesla as a
car
company instead of thinking about tesla
as a software company or a robo taxi
company
let's think about tesla as a battery
company
that tesla is going to be producing
gigawatt hours of batteries
and that amount of gigawatt hours
produced is going to grow
and let's go with that 50 a year
increase in production
now i'm going to make an assumption
again so the question is
how does tesla maximize instead of
thinking about maximizing profit for a
vehicle
instead of thinking about making profits
in a dollars per mile
what if we thought about it in terms of
dollars per kilowatt hour
or dollars per megawatt hour of battery
production
and then the question is how does tesla
optimally distribute batteries
to the various applications it's
developing to maximize profit and to
maximize the acceleration
of our transition to sustainable energy
as i've said before multiple times i do
not believe that the long term
robo taxi will be as big as a model 3 or
model y
i believe that ultimately the ultimate
robocar the ultimate robo taxi
will be a single passenger podcar robo
taxi
why because it will be able to take
someone
from point a to point b using the
smallest battery pack
and if you have a i'm going to use 20
right now the typical tesla has let's
say a 60 kilowatt hour battery pack
if instead you develop vehicles that use
20 kilowatt hour packs
and you produce three times as many
vehicles you take
three times as many people from
destination a to destination b
and you displace three times as many
internal combustion engine vehicles
you reduce pollution three times as much
if you're able to accomplish the same
mission with a smaller battery pack
and this creates an interesting
challenge which i'm not going to address
in that video i think that's going to be
for a future video is
i know a lot of people are big on tesla
energy and i think tesla energy is an
important step to the future
but is the dollars per kilowatt hour
produced by tesla energy by grid storage
as much as the dollars per kilowatt hour
produced by transportation
and not just dollars per kilowatt hour
is the reduction
in use of fossil fuels greater
i believe that robo taxis are such a
revolutionary change in our society
absolutely insane how big this is going
to be
that that is going to accelerate our
transition to sustainable energy
even more radically more than tesla
energy
i think tesla energy is great i think
they should continue building it
but i think it's insane to devote
large numbers of batteries to tesla
energy
when those same batteries accomplish
more in robo taxis
so let's get to some numbers suppose
and i'm making up this number i don't
know what the number is i don't know if
it's 50 gigawatt hours or
100 gigawatt hours but let's say in 2021
tesla produces 50 gigawatt hours of
batteries
keep in mind i'm talking about tesla
producing batteries tesla is also buying
batteries from others
particularly catl and i think at least
one or two
other companies i'm using 50 because it
made the numbers work
i think it actually might be 100
gigawatt hours in 2021 or more
but let's start with 50 those are
conservative numbers those reduce
that reduces the profit numbers that i'm
going to come up with
so if tesla produces 50 gigawatt hours
of batteries in 2021
and its battery production increases 50
percent a year
and by 2030 tesla will be at the magic
two terawatt hours
of batteries produced that's the number
that elon has talked about
um in 2025 tesla will be producing 250
gigawatt hours of batteries and i think
we may see a step
change i think whatever tesla's doing in
their skunk works
uh whatever's happening in fremont
there's some new battery cell lines
being
uh developed there may be a big step
change and we might see a much larger
number of batteries produced soon
but let's go with these numbers because
they're conservative
so the question is if tesla's average
vehicle
has a 50 kilowatt hour pack and you
produce 50 gigawatt hours of batteries
that means you're able to produce 1
million vehicles million vehicles and
we're going to use my
wall street numbers if you produce a
million vehicles
and you make thirty thousand dollars a
vehicle
then you end up with profit of 30
billion dollars in 2021 you end up with
a market cap of 900 billion dollars and
tesla share price is 4 500
that's one way of looking at it if you
follow this approach with profit of 30
000
a vehicle 50 kilowatt hour packs you end
up in 2025
with 5 million vehicles produced and a
60 000 share price at a 12 trillion
dollar market cap
and in 2030 you've produced two terawatt
hours of batteries
38 million vehicles using those two
terawatt hours of batteries
3.4 trillion dollars in profit
and a share price of 500 000 if you
follow what i'm saying and you say you
know what
we can accelerate the transition to
sustainable energy
by going to 25 kilowatt hour packs
or produce twice as many vehicles we're
pretty work battery constrained
but we go to 25 kilowatt hour packs and
we go with vehicles that are hyper
efficient
smaller vehicles that weigh less that
enable you get 200 plus miles of range
out of a 25 kilowatt hour pack
then in 2021 you produce two million
vehicles instead of one million vehicles
i don't think we're going to make the
transition to this 25 kilowatt hour pack
approach yet i think that's going to
come in a few
years but for the simplicity of the
model that's the way i'm approaching it
two million vehicles make 40
billion dollars in profit at 20 000. now
you've reduced your profit to 20 000
a vehicle is the approach i'm taking
when you go to smaller packs
you're making less profit for vehicle i
think it's right
maybe you make more profit for a vehicle
but let's just go with this
so you get 40 billion dollars in profit
that year you have a market cap of 1.2
trillion and tesla is already worth six
thousand dollars a share
the next year you've produced three
million vehicles your total vehicles is
now
five million vehicles because you're
adding the two million from the previous
year to the three million
and you're making twenty thousand
dollars per robo taxi you make a hundred
billion dollars in profit
in 2022 market caps three trillion share
price is already 15
000. stretch that out the 2025.
in 2025 tesla produces 10 million
vehicles with 25 kilowatt hour packs
the total number of vehicles is now 26
million robo taxis operating
they're making a profit of 500 billion
dollars a year
market cap is now 15 almost 16 trillion
dollars
and the share price is approaching 80
000 a share stretch it out to 2030.
in 2030 tesla produces 77 million
vehicles this is where you start to
reach that limit of is there a market
for that many vehicles
and they have a total of 226 million
robo taxis operating
that would get you to 4.5 trillion in
profit 136 trillion dollar market cap
and a share price of 680
000 now i'm not saying that's reasonable
i'm just saying that's a way of looking
at it keep in mind by doing what we're
doing here tesla is lowering the cost in
order to get that profit down to twenty
thousand dollars a vehicle
the price per mile is dropped you're not
getting a dollar a mile anymore you're
getting maybe 60 cents a mile
but your cost per mile on the vehicle is
down to 10 cents a mile or less
so you're still potentially making
substantial profits on that vehicle
let's take it a step further let's say
tesla goes hyper efficient and they go
with my podcar
and i'm not going to go with a 10
kilowatt hour pack let's say they go
with a 15 kilowatt hour pack
i think ultimately we may see podcar
robo taxis with 10 kilowatt hour packs
you can make five times as many vehicles
but let's go with 15 kilowatt hours
and you're dividing that 50 gigawatt
hours in the first year by 15 kilowatt
hours you get 3.3 million vehicles
produced
get a profit of 50 billion dollars in
that first year 2021
market caps 1.5 trillion and tesla's
worth 7 500
a share stretch that out to 2025.
tesla produces nearly 17 million
vehicles we're talking about podcar robo
taxis i know this is an oversimplified
model but
tesla produces 17 million vehicles and
has 44 million
robo taxis in the network on the road
serving people
you drop the profit to fifteen thousand
dollars a robo taxi
per year you could go down to ten
kilowatt hour packs and ten thousand
dollars profit you can play games with
this all you want but i'm just
doing some kind of modeling here you get
659
billion dollars in profit
get a market cap of 20 trillion dollars
and you get a share price of 99 000
that's in 2025. stretch this out 2030.
tesla produces 128 million single
passenger podcar robo taxis with 15
kilowatt hour packs
makes a profit of nearly 6 trillion
dollars
market cap is now 170 trillion dollars
and you've got a share price of 850 000
a share
that's the model models aren't perfect
you're always going to see
quirks with models and things that don't
make sense with models and i think it's
seems unlikely we're going to see a
market cap of 170 trillion dollars or
six trillion dollars in profit there
will be things that limit this
but gotta look at the other side of this
if tesla is able to
let's say tesla does shift this podcar
robo-taxi model
and they're able to get the cost per
mile down below a dollar a mile
down below 50 cents a mile let's say
they get the cost down to 25 cents a
mile
if tesla is able to get the cost down to
25 cents a mile
more people will take more trips
because you've cut the cost of travel in
the united states and i think in western
europe the average person pays about 60
cents a mile
for owning their own car and driving it
around
and they drive less because of that cost
per mile that it costs them
if you are able to get the cost of
transportation down to 25 cents a mile
if you are able to make transportation
more convenient
because the robo-taxi model is more
convenient you never have to take your
car for an oil change you never have to
fill the tank
you never have to replace tires you
don't have to worry about windshield
wipers
the robo taxi business takes care of all
of that at a lower cost per mile than
you would spend if you did it yourself
and this radically expands the freedom
people have to travel
you put screens in there and let people
play video games while they're traveling
you connect them to the internet with a
star link or however you you do it or a
5g connection
this could be the most radical change in
society and i'm predicting this
in 2030 our world will be so different
we can't even it's going to change more
in the next 10 years
and it changed in the last hundred it's
going to be mind-boggling
how our world is going to be we're going
to have people on mars we're going to
all be riding around a single passenger
podca robo taxis we're going to have
neuro links in our brains
we're going to be riding around in
tunnels going 150 miles around town at
600 miles an hour
and these tunnels going from city to
city the airline industry's dead the car
industry's dead
commuter rail is dead all these
industries are shot
tesla has taken over the world and made
the world a better place for all of us
everyone tesla minibus i didn't even get
into how a tesla minibus
is going to use a reasonable size
battery pack to carry 10 people
and that cost per mile is going to be
even lower that's going to get the cost
per mile down to a nickel a mile or less
so poor people in india poor people in
africa poor people in other countries
poor people and homeless people in
america
a lot of people who currently are
mobility constricted
will have much greater mobility it is
going to make our lives so much better
the biggest limiting factor the biggest
thing that it can impair tesla's share
price
and at the same time impair the
transition to sustainable energy and at
the same time clean the air
so that people in china can breathe all
of these massive changes the biggest
threat is government
if you believe that big government is
going to make the world better then why
didn't they do this already
it is capitalism it is to innovation
that comes from
freedom that is making this innovation
we are seeing in front of our eyes
possible
and if you let government get in the way
they will jump at the opportunity
to seize the profits to seize control
and to impair
to protect old industries that pollute
that is what politicians do and we need
you
the people to say no we want tesla to
flourish
we want tesla to grow because it's
making our world a better place
this is about making the world a better
place and if you take away the incentive
for investors to invest
in companies that make the world a
better place there will be fewer
companies making the world a better
place
getting back to the point here i've laid
out for you
multiple ways three different models of
how tesla's share price is going to grow
how tesla's going to grow and how it's
going to accelerate the transition to
sustainable energy
i'm tired of people saying well i don't
want my people riding in my car i'm
going to keep it in the garage well
you're not accelerating the transition
to sustainable energy
if you buy an electric vehicle and you
keep it in the garage you're
accelerating the transition to
sustainable energy if you send the
vehicle out there
and it operates 10 times as much as it
would have if it was just you
if you use your vehicle to serve others
you will make money
and you will make the world a better
place robo taxi model is the future
you're probably not going to bother
buying one you're probably going to be
happy to ride around there's certain
businesses
like contractors who need their tools
with them i haven't figured out how that
model works are they just driving beat
up old
uh internal you know gasoline and diesel
trucks
are they gonna get cyber trucks i don't
know cyber trucks are gonna be so
valuable it's hard to imagine the
typical contractor using them
that's an interesting problem i don't
have an answer to it
it may be that you have a tray with all
your tools on it and when the cyber
truck comes and picks you up it has a
winch and it pulls the tools up into the
bed
and you rent the cyber truck for your
trip over and you call it again when
you're going to go back
i'm not sure how that's going to play
out on the plain and simple robo-taxi
model and i think this is a really
interesting question
if you think about tesla as a battery
company and you maximize
profit per kilowatt hour and using that
as a proxy for maximizing
our reduction in fossil fuel consumption
and our reduction in the pollution of
fossil fuels this is a really innovative
way of looking at it i'm going to do
another video on that down the road i'd
love to see your responses please
comment
tell me why you think i'm wrong tell me
how much you think i'm wrong
i am projecting a tesla share price in
20 30 of a hundred thousand dollars a
share
and that's conservative compared to the
numbers in my models
it's extremely conservative compared to
the numbers in my models
and i believe the numbers in my models
are probably wrong for some reason but i
haven't figured it out yet
so tell me you want to talk about rattle
radical change check out neuralink
this is amazing people love this video
so many other things to watch i just
created a patreon account i reduced the
number of ads in this video
and the patreon link is in the
description below
thank you so have a great evening and
enjoy the test drives
