“I pledged the word of Great Britain that
should the United States become involved in
the war with Japan, a British declaration
would follow within the hour.”
After learning of the Japanese attack on Pearl
Harbor, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill
rushed to fulfill his promise to declare war
(a,424).
But his promise was quickly superseded by
news that 25,000 Japanese had landed north
of Hong Kong- his stretched colonial forces
were now engaged in the Pacific theater.
Curiously, between learning of Pearl Harbor
and the attack at Hong Kong- in this culmanitive
moment after years of courting the USA towards
engagement in World War 2, Churchill decided
to telegraph none other than the Irish Prime
Minister Éamon de Valera (b,c).
“Now or never,” Churchill wrote.
“‘A nation once again.’”
Churchill was making an offer to the de facto
independent and neutral Irish state.
Join the war effort against the axis powers.
We’ll make divided Ireland whole.
The message contained something potentially
compelling: for de Valera.
He had opposed the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty
which allowed for the North to remain aligned
to Great Britain while the rest formed an
independent state (d,223).
But the price of potentially reuniting Ireland:
the use of Irish ports for the war effort
(a).
And de Valera’s answer was...no answer.
He never wrote Churchill back.
Ireland had been neutral; it remained neutral.
Despite this, it’s estimated around 43,000
Irish citizens served with the British military
in World War 2 (e).
As far as any government was concerned, no
conscription, and no participation in things
like the Royal Observer Corps, tasked with
spotting German air raids over the night sky.
Such was the fragility of the relationship
between Westminster, Belfast, and Dublin.
Over a decade after the end of the war, as
the threat of Nazi invasion of the British
Isles converted to fear of a Soviet nuclear
strike at the height of the cold war, things
were different, at least for Northern Ireland.
The United Kingdom’s Royal Observer Corps
had changed its mission from German plane
detection to nuclear strike detection.
They had instruments not only identify to
a nuclear strike, but to estimate its fallout
and strength.
The ROC had 31 so-called “operation rooms”
spread across the UK, prepared to alert the
nation within minutes should a nuclear strike
occur (1).
And ROC group 31 of 31 was located under Thiepval
Barracks in the town of Lisburn, Northern
Ireland (2,3,4).
Today, if you visit the Barracks in Lisburn,
you’ll find a plaque commemorating that
time.
It reads: “To monitor the nuclear threat
during the cold war...forewarned is forearmed”.
Leaving Lisburn and Northern Ireland on the
A3, heading towards Carrick-On-Shannon in
the Republic of Ireland, you’ll encounter
a peculiarity.
About a third of the way, you’ll cross the
border between Northern Ireland (part of the
United Kingdom) and the Republic of Ireland.
So far so good.
But not long after you cross the border, you’ll
cross again, back in N. Ireland and the UK.
2 miles later, another international border,
back in Republic of Ireland.
2 miles later- again, Northern Ireland.
Once more for good measure, you’re finally
in Republic of Ireland for good.
In all, you’ve crossed an international
border 5 times, four of which happened in
the space of 6 miles.
That’s no problem today, as both Northern
Ireland as part of the UK and the Republic
of Ireland are in the European Union, and
all 28 member states enjoy freedom of movement
within, which means no border checkpoints.
If you actually drove the route you probably
wouldn’t even notice the international crossings,
as the only real difference is the occasional
sign indicating the speed limit changing from
miles per hour in Northern Ireland to kilometers
per hour in the Republic of Ireland.
But that simplicity is threatened as the United
Kingdom transitions out of the EU.
The stability of Ireland depends on how the
UK and EU negotiate a future trading relationship.
Let’s go deeper with this topic.
When the UK voted to leave the European Union
in June of 2016, for better or worse, they
also signed on to a whole lot of complication:
divorce bill, EU migration, common fisheries
policy, financial services, the overall trading
relationship…
But perhaps none with larger historical complication
as that of Northern Ireland and the Republic
of Ireland.
Northern Ireland has been officially partitioned
from the rest of the island since a series
of acts and treaties made it so in the early
1920’s.
1968-1998 were 30 years of intense violence
in the North, mainly between those who wanted
to be part of the UK, and those who wanted
a united Ireland.
Through the Good Friday Agreement of 1998,
Northern Ireland’s status as a country within
the United Kingdom was mostly settled-
“The two Prime Ministers emerged just before
six this evening to inaugurate what the historic
agreement they hope will usher in a new era
for the island”
and the Republic of Ireland amended its constitution
to take out any right to reclaim the North.
And for 20 years that agreement has held,
in part because the movement of people, goods,
and services are seamless over the border.
As part of the EU Single Market and Customs
Union, any Irish national can go to Northern
Ireland, and any Teddy Bear assembled in Northern
Ireland can be imported and sold in the Republic
of Ireland.
But if the UK leaves the Single Market and
Customs Union, UK product regulations might
shift; different regulatory standards mean
the need for border checks.
Products might also be subject to customs
duties or tariffs, meaning a need for border
checks.
The freedom of movement of people might also
end, meaning a need for immigration border
checks.
In short, leaving the EU creates a significant
challenge for Northern Ireland, which unlike
the mainland, shares a land border with an
EU nation.
Here’s the implication: after Brexit, the
open border might be repartitioned with barriers
and checks, back to the day when travel between
Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland
meant disruptions, smugglers, and violence.
And though Ireland seemed to take a back seat
to other issues during the referendum campaign,
it’s not as though politicians didn’t
realize this might be a problem (5).
Phase one of the negotiations last year included
a dialogue on the Ireland/Northern Ireland
border led by the chief negotiators themselves
(6).
In her Mansion House Speech earlier this year,
Theresa May made two things clear.
One, that the UK is leaving the single market:
“We are leaving the single market.
Life is going to be different.
In certain ways, our access to each other's
markets will be less than it is now.”
And two, just a few sentences prior: “As
prime minister of the whole United Kingdom,
I am not going to let our departure from the
European Union do anything to set back the
historic progress that we have made in Northern
Ireland - nor will I allow anything that would
damage the integrity of our precious Union.”
“We also want as frictionless a border as
possible between us and the EU - so that we
don't damage the integrated supply chains
our industries depend on and don't have a
hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.”
(7)
This begs the question: how?
How could borders be enforced, tariffs applied,
immigration papers checked- all without a
hard border?
Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has
suggested a “permanent customs union”
after Brexit to avoid a hard border in Ireland
(8).
“No one should be willing to sacrifice the
Good Friday Agreement...So Labour would seek
to negotiate a new comprehensive UK-EU customs
union to ensure there are no tariffs with
Europe, and to help avoid any need whatsoever
for a hard border in Northern Ireland.”
And in February of 2018, the EU released a
“draft Withdrawal Agreement, offering a
backup plan that if nothing else was agreed,
Northern Ireland would remain a part of the
EU customs union, separate from the rest of
the UK (9).
But Prime Minister Theresa May has rejected
both these options: the permanent customs
union on grounds it doesn’t realign the
UK away from Europe sufficiently; the second
being that if Northern Ireland stays in the
single market and customs union it’s effectively
cut it off from the rest of the United Kingdom.
And unfortunately an UK-EU Brexit transition
agreement in March failed to find an agreeable
solution to this problem (10).
The UK is kind of stuck.
On the one hand, they could stay aligned with
the EU, maintain an open border, but then
lose the exit part of brexit.
On the other hand, they could realign away
from the Europe, but potentially cut off Northern
Ireland in the process.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson acknowledged
as much in a leaked letter to the Prime Minister.
Reading from the article:
“...he tried to play down the ‘exaggerated
impression’ of ‘how important checks are’
at EU external borders,” while also admitting
that border issue was one of the most important
challenges to the whole process (11).
Third way solutions have been offered, but
not substantiated.
Some have offered that countries like Switzerland
enjoy free trade arrangements with the EU,
but the Swiss accept free movement of people,
unacceptable to most Brexiteers (12).
Even an arrangement like that between Canada
and the EU would require border checks to
ensure that third-party countries goods weren’t
given preferential treatment (13,14).
Brexit Secretary and chief negotiator David
Davis asserted that technology might be able
to solve the issues through a so-called ‘smart
border’, but critics argue that technology
simply can’t achieve a perfectly frictionless
Irish border (15).
Adding to the practical complications is a
political one (16).
Theresa May gambled on a general election
in 2017 and actually lost her governing majority
in Parliament.
9 seats short, she was forced to form a minority
government with the help of none other than
10 members of the Northern Irish Democratic
Unionist Party, supportive of Brexit, but
opposed to a Brexit arrangement with a hard
Irish border, and opposed to a Brexit arrangement
with Northern Ireland partitioned off from
the rest of the UK (17, 18, 19).
In fact, they saw the backstop option to maintain
regulatory alignment on the island as an assault
on UK sovereignty.
On any close Brexit vote in Parliament, it
is exactly these 10 members on which a majority
will hinge.
The Irish border of today, cutting through
homes, businesses, roadways, and ocean boundaries
is the most challenging issue Brexit negotiators
face.
It is a place where the bureaucratic machinations
of a future trade arrangement meet the realities
of an imperfect peace agreement.
The centuries-long complicated relationship
between the governments of Ireland and Westminster
is fragile once more.
