now warning says signal an impending
global recession measured as two
consecutive quarters of contraction are
blaring around the world our business
correspondent Kim Assange has his report
on the signals to look out for and
reasons for this slowdown the US bond
market is sounding the alarm of a
possible recession the spread between
the two year Treasury yield and the
10-year yield inverted for the first
time since 2007 on August 14th an
inverted yield curve is a bellwether for
an economic recession long term bills
have higher risk premiums and therefore
lower yields but a higher 10-year yield
means investors believe they will make
more by holding a longer term Treasury
expecting the value of the short term
bills to plunge as the economy slows
according to credit Swiss the last five
inverted yield curves all led to
recessions that happen an average of 22
months following an inversion Britain
also saw an inverted yield curve and
Germany's Treasury bond yields are
heading further down into negative
territory the price of golds the go to
safe haven for many investors is at a
six-year high the real economy is also
losing steam China saw its second
quarter growth had its slowest pace in
near 30 years South Korea recorded
negative growth in the first quarter two
other expert powerhouses Germany and
Singapore also saw their economies
contract in the second quarter on
falling global demand while the u.s. is
still enjoying solid economic growth its
manufacturing office PMI fell below the
50 mark for the first time since 2009
indicating a near-term manufacturing
contraction the problem of low
productivity and the widening wealth gap
remains unsolved since the 2008 global
financial crisis interest rates are at
record lows yet supply is higher than
demand in addition new factors like the
us-china trade war are accelerating d
slowdown the us-china trade spat has not
only led to higher tariffs between the
world's two largest economies hurting
consumers and exports but also added
uncertainties to businesses driving down
investment a No Deal brexit
pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and
tensions between South Korea and Japan
also add to downside risks it remains to
be seen whether the warning signs will
lead to a recession but rising populist
sentiment and protectionism is making it
harder for world leaders to work in
unison to support the global economy he
met on arirang news
