Our first question, which we've already touched
on, is the fact that Bitcoin has been falling.
It fell below $10K just today, and some people
online have said that Bitcoin's price falling
has been connected to Donald Trump tweeting
negative things about Bitcoin.
But other people say that Trump tweeting about
bitcoin, negative or positive, is just in
general a great thing, because it brings more
attention, brings bitcoin just into the zeitgeist
more so to say.
So what do you think about that?
Yeah, I'm definitely in the second camp.
My initial reaction was:
this tweet is extremely bullish.
If Donald Trump loves Bitcoin or hates Bitcoin,
the fact that he's mentioning it, basically
highlighting the advantages of bitcoin to
the entire world.
So I thought that tweet was extremely bullish,
and within the first half hour of the tweet,
Bitcoin did rise about 2%, not a lot for bitcoin,
but if you're talking about initial reactions
I think that was pretty clear.
And, of course, that tweet came out on Friday.
And then we had some mainstream media this
morning trying to attribute the fall today
from the tweet last Friday.
Now this is a market that generates most of
the volumes over the weekend.
So it's very difficult for me to imagine that
tweet actually was responsible for Bitcoin falling.
Even though I don't think that this is what
happened, but if we want to look at how timing
works, the Fed was talking right over here
and that actually just after that last week
we saw the price of Bitcoin falling.
All of this is like really smoke and mirrors
though, a lot of people like to attribute
price action to a news event.
And a lot of us make our living that way,
so who can blame them.
But if you zoom out a little bit you'll see
that none of this really has had any real
noticeable impact on the price of bitcoin.
Here's the monster rally that we've been seeing
since mid-February.
We hit a peak late in June, a pullback, and
now we're in a range, the range is approximately
from $10K to $14K, the high of $13,800, if
we pass that on the upside we have a strong break out.
No doubt we'll see a lot more FOMO,
people buying in.
That'll pave the way for much higher levels,
even a test of the all-time high of $20,000.
On the bottom side things are not as clear.
Yes, we have that psychological
support line of $10K.
But as you mentioned it has been broken a
little bit, so it's not a strong support line
at this point, but we can see that $9K, the
exact psychological support.
And many different chartists will draw their
lines a bit differently.
You could probably name about a dozen support
lines below that, but if we do look, let's
say, just make a rising trend line from that
surge on April 2nd, I believe the surge on
April 2nd was really when things started kicking
off for this market.
You can see this kind of pattern holding here.
This is not like strong support resistance
line, but rather just looking at the trend overall.
And we can see that we've been above this
line, below this line, but overall, even if
we come down to $9K or even at $8,500 I would
say this this trend line still holds weight
we're in an upward trend overall.
So try not to confuse short-term price movements
with long-term trends.
So, my next question has to do with altcoins,
because they seem to be having even heavier
losses than Bitcoin.
For example, Ethereum lost around 17% of its
value in 24 hours.
So, why do you think that altcoins are having
much more significant losses than bitcoin right now?
That's an excellent question and it does kind
of fit in with what we've been seeing lately,
it's quite consistent that Bitcoin is the
leader of this rally.
So ever since April, second surge Bitcoin
has been firmly in the driver's seat.
And the reason for this is that mostly people
are gravitating towards Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is basically consolidating the entire
crypto market, we've seen Bitcoin's dominance rising.
That's because most of the excitement throughout
this rally has been specifically surrounding Bitcoin.
So some of the altcoins on the way up, so
when we're in that kind of dynamic, where
bitcoin is dominant and we're in a bull market,
I don't know if we can call it a bull market
just yet, but let's say we are in a bull run
at the moment.
So when the prices are moving up, bitcoin
is going to tend to outperform.
And then when we see the pullbacks then we'll
see that the altcoins are gonna get hit a
lot more than bitcoin would
as traders gravitate towards safety.
I'm moving on to just the general market again.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, CZ of
Binance said that he's been seeing about 60%
of the trading volume on Binance coming from
retail investors which is the same as last year,
as opposed to institutional investors.
So can this be considered a sign that the
space lacks maturity do you think?
Well, I think it's still early.
I mean we've been talking about these retail
investors coming into the market, it's pretty
much since the fall in the beginning of 2018.
I mean this has been kind of a market theme.
However, and as we've stated in the last few
videos that we've done, even though this entire
rally has been driven largely on the speculation
that institutional players are about to enter,
actually the institutional players don't have
any major gateways open at the moment.
All of the institutional players
that we've talked about,
mainly backed in Fidelity,
the Nasdaq and so on.
They haven't actually opened their doors yet.
I mean they're still on the verge, right.
Fidelity is just testing their first few clients,
Bakkt said that they're going to start testing very shortly.
However, if somebody on Wall Street wants
to buy bitcoin at the moment, the only real
option they have is the futures contracts
on the CME.
So, those futures contracts
as we know are cash settled.
So there's no actual Bitcoin
involved in those transactions.
So at the moment there isn't really any option
for those institutional players to buy bitcoin.
However, those options are very likely to
be opened up within the next few days even.
So CZ's comments they're apropos everything
that we've been seeing, all of this rally
has been driven largely by retail investors,
specifically retail investors who are already
familiar with the crypto market, who are getting
excited that the institutional players are
finally entering.
Now, this could be a situation of buy the
rumor and sell the news, right, the institutional
players finally get here and then they're
you know on the sell side instead of on the
buy side, it's happened before.
However, what we do know is that once those
gateways are open, those bridges are built,
it brings more liquidity into the market and
much larger cash flows.
And, generally speaking, overtime those cash
flows are more likely to have a positive impact
on the price especially on the level that
we're talking about here.
All right.
So my last question now goes back to a specific
cryptocurrency Litecoin, because that halving
is going to be taking place in August, which
is going to really reduce the block awards by 50%.
So, what do you think is going to happen to
the token after this event?
That's an excellent question.
I know that Litecoin is probably one of the
strongest cryptos out there.
I mean it's the first fork off of Bitcoin.
It has an incredibly strong community.
I think that it's going to really depend,
we've seen a lot of speculation based on this
halving event a lot of the time we know that
halving events have a tendency to be priced in
before they actually occur and even throughout
this rally I mean on February 11th, right,
we can see that pop was a lot bigger than
bitcoin's, litecoin was really arguably one
of the leaders in this entire rally that we're
seeing now.
However, we do see a massive pullback so far.
And I think that, you know, that's in line
with what we've been seeing through the rest
of the markets.
So, look, Litecoin has, even though it has
a very strong community it has a very strong
test in front of it.
And that's going to be about adoption.
So the more we see, you know, merchants accepting
litecoin and people paying with Litecoin that
will cause the price to rise long term, everything
else is going to be speculation.
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