AMNA NAWAZ: In three weeks' time, the United
Kingdom is supposed to leave the European
Union, and, still, there is no deal for that
so-called Brexit.
A major sticking point?
The fate of the border between Northern Ireland,
which is part of the U.K., and the Republic
of Ireland, an independent nation that will
remain part of the E.U.
How that border matter is resolved could also
have major implications for the peace forged
21 years ago that ended the deadly uprising
in Northern Ireland.
Special correspondent Jane Ferguson was born
and raised in Northern Ireland, and returned
there to examine these tense and fraught times.
JANE FERGUSON: As the sun rises over this
corner of Ireland, first light bathes an invisible
frontier.
It touches Carlingford Lough, just south of
the border, and reaches across to the hills
of South Armagh, in the north.
It's a peaceful place.
But this rugged, beautiful land straddling
two nations has a violent history.
It was here that the deadliest branch of the
Irish Republican Army, or IRA, battled British
rule for some 30 years, beginning in the late
1960s.
These fields and lanes became so dangerous
for British troops, they could only deploy
here safely by helicopter.
The Troubles, as they were called, transformed
this tranquil place into a war zone.
As a young girl, growing up just outside the
small village of Markethill in Northern Ireland,
I watched how the violence of that time affected
everyone.
It is amazing for me to think what was normal
life back then in Northern Ireland in the
1980s and 1990s.
When I was just a kid here in my local village,
the police station was attacked.
It's just that compound over there.
It was attacked by the IRA.
And while that attack was taking place, I
was in kindergarten in the local village school
here behind me.
Myself and my classmates were all evacuated.
But, back then, normal life involved the threat
of attacks and bombings and killings.
Protestant communities were mostly Unionist,
wanting Northern Ireland to remain a part
of the United Kingdom.
Catholic communities were Irish Nationalist
for the most part, wanting all of Ireland
to be unified, free from British rule.
More than 3,500 people died during the Troubles,
half of them civilians.
In 1998, armed groups and politicians agreed
to finally make peace, and signed an historic
treaty called the Good Friday Agreement that
effectively ended Northern Ireland's bloody
sectarian conflict.
Twenty years later, and that peace has brought
stability.
As long as both the Republic of Ireland and
Britain were members of the same European
Union, there was no need for a militarized
border, and sectarian tensions between Protestants
and Catholics eased.
Now the political fight over Brexit, Britain's
exit from the European Union, is threatening
that precious harmony.
That's because, if the U.K. slices away all
official ties to Europe, the Irish Republic
would remain inside the E.U., with a European
border running across the land separating
the Republic of Ireland from Northern Ireland,
which could mean new customs and security
checks.
It's something that would break the terms
of the Good Friday Agreement.
That's already reigniting old tensions.
MARGARET O'CALLAGHAN, Queen's University Belfast:
One of the things the '98 agreement did was,
it ended violence, obviously, but it also
made it possible to be British or to be Irish,
and not to be loyal or disloyal in Northern
Ireland.
JANE FERGUSON: Professor Margaret O'Callaghan
teaches Irish history at Queens University
in Belfast.
MARGARET O'CALLAGHAN: Nobody envisaged, when
the '98 agreement was put in place, that there
would be a situation in which Britain would
be outside the E.U. and Ireland would be in
the E.U.
So, this throws up all kinds of problems nobody
had anticipated.
JANE FERGUSON: During the Troubles in Northern
Ireland, British border posts were viewed
as provocative by Irish nationalists.
With identity politics, nearly everything
becomes political.
That's why peace only came after the border
was made less visible.
It's still here, but you would hardly know
it.
One potential solution to the border issue
is being called the Backstop.
That would mean leaving Northern Ireland inside
the E.U. economic zone, even though the rest
of Great Britain would be outside.
The customs border would be an invisible line
across the Irish Sea, giving Northern Ireland
an economic special status.
It's a solution that is rejected by Unionists.
ROBIN SWANN, Leader of Ulster Unionist Party:
It removed us from the United Kingdom.
And once you start to break those ties between
Northern Ireland and the rest of the United
Kingdom, it's the start of a process and then.
And it's a process that we don't want to be
part of.
JANE FERGUSON: In Northern Ireland, many people
earn a living through farming, like my family.
I grew up on this farm in County Armagh, and
I returned here just as the deadline for making
a deal with Europe grows near.
If trade agreements are severed with a hostile
Brexit, farmers here, like my father, will
find themselves subject to tariffs on their
goods being sold to Europe.
My father is also the president of the farmer's
union in Northern Ireland.
He says around half of all lamb meat from
Northern Ireland crosses the border into the
Republic of Ireland and ends up in France.
IVOR FERGUSON, President, Ulster Farmers Union:
Our lambs leaving Northern Ireland and going
to Southern Ireland would pay a tariff of
about 35 to 40 pounds sterling per lamb, and
that would mean that, well, farming just wouldn't
stand that.
JANE FERGUSON: Another fear is new imports
from other countries, like the U.S., free
from Europeans regulations on how animals
are raised and cared for.
Farmers here could find themselves undercut
in price by foreign goods.
IVOR FERGUSON: The E.U. has quite strict standards,
so they don't want American beef because it's
full of hormones.
The chicken is washed with chlorine.
So they don't want that.
They won't allow that in.
So, that's a thing we are concerned about
as well.
If the U.K. decided to drop the standards,
then that would be a major difficulty for
us.
JANE FERGUSON: Democratic Unionist Party campaigned
for Brexit.
They say, despite the March 29 deadline to
leave Europe, new trade agreements will eventually
emerge.
GORDON LYONS, Democratic Unionist Party: We
want to see a withdrawal agreement with the
European Union.
We want to make sure that there is the protection
and the certainty there for business, above
anything else.
JANE FERGUSON: For Unionists, however, there
is another concern.
To some of their rivals amongst Nationalists,
the discord over Brexit could signal an opportunity.
The Good Friday Agreement includes a clause
that calls for an eventual referendum, or
poll, on removing the Irish border entirely
and uniting Ireland.
When Northern Ireland was formed almost 100
years ago, there was a clear Protestant majority.
Over the years, that majority has eroded,
and is now almost gone.
So far, no one has wanted to risk the delicate
peace in Northern Ireland since the Good Friday
Agreement by calling for a unity referendum,
but the Brexit debate has changed everything
here.
MARY LOU MCDONALD, President, Sinn Fein: A
hard border on the island of Ireland cannot
happen, will not happen, and is not an option.
JANE FERGUSON: Mary Lou McDonald is the president
of Sinn Fein, traditionally seen as the political
wing of the IRA.
MARY LOU MCDONALD: If the British government
insists on a reckless course of action that
brings a difficulty to the Good Friday Agreement
and causes a hardening of the border, in those
circumstances, the only democratically correct
thing that they can do is put the issue of
the border itself to the people, allow the
people to have their say in a referendum,
in a border poll.
After all...
JANE FERGUSON: On a united Ireland?
MARY LOU MCDONALD: Absolutely.
JANE FERGUSON: A hard border in Northern Ireland
would almost certainly reignite anger, but,
for now, the likelihood of an outright insurgency
again is low.
There's been a lot said in the press about
how there's a risk of returning to the kind
of violence we saw here in the '70s, '80s
and '90s.
Is that realistic?
MARGARET O'CALLAGHAN: No, I don't think that
is realistic at all.
I don't see a return to that kind of violence.
Post-9/11, we live in a different kind of
world.
JANE FERGUSON: That doesn't mean sporadic
violence, less organized, wouldn't be possible.
MARY LOU MCDONALD: I think it would be a very
foolish and a very reckless person that would
gamble at all on stability, that would gamble
in any way, however small, would take any
chance with the peace that we have built.
JANE FERGUSON: The memories of violence and
loss, however, are still sharp, and Northern
Ireland's people know they have much at stake
in the coming months, hoping their hard-won
peace here can withstand the changing world
around them.
For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm Jane Ferguson
in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
