THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE
EXPECTING.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF WHAT IS
GOING ON IN THE BOND MARKET
YOU KNOW THE WORRY THIS
MORNING IS THAT THE 10-YEAR
YIELD DROPPED BELOW % AND A
GAP BETWEEN 10 YEAR AND TWO
YEAR HAS GOTTEN SHORTER, AND
THAT IS SUGGESTING THAT A
RECESSION IS ON THE HORIZON,
IN THE COMING COUPLE YEARS.
>> MARIA WE HAVE A BIG MARKET
ROOM DOWNSTAIRS AT THE
TREASURY WE MONITOR THESE
THINGS VERY CAREFULLY.
YOU KNOW IT DOESN'T IMPACT
WHAT WE DO.
AT TREASURY IN THE SHORT TERM
WE ARE FOCUSED ON OUR FUNDING
NEEDS OVER A LONGER TERM
BASIS.
BUT LET ME TELL YOU IN MY
PREVIOUS LIFE I MADE A CAREER
OF TRADING.
AND I'VE NEVER BELIEVED THAT
MARKETS ARE EFFICIENT, MARKETS
MOVE TOO FAR BOTH DIRECTIONS,
IT IS IMPORTANT TO TAKE THIS
INFORMATION IN, BUT I -- I
DON'T SEE THE MARKET BEING A
-- AN INDICATOR AS THE FUTURE
OF THE ECONOMY.
I SEE THE MARKET BEING AN
INDICATOR AS TO WHAT THEY
THINK IS GOING TO OCCUR ON
INTEREST RATES.
THERE IS ALSO VERY YOU KNOW
THERE'S TECHNICAL ISSUES AS TO
SUPPLY AND DEMAND ALL THESE
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE CURVE.
>> SO WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE
LOOKING AT SECRETARY, IN TERMS
OF OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
METRICS TO KEEP CHECKING ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE PLAN IS IN
PLACE, AND ROLLING AS YOU
WOULD EXPECT IN TERMS OF
GROWTH?
AS I SAID EARLIER ECONOMIC
GROWTH HAS BEEN AMONG YOUR
PRIORITIES, AS WELL AS JOB
CREATION.
WITH THESE WORRIES ON THE
HORIZON, ARE YOU GOING TO BE
FOCUSED ON BUSINESS SPENDING?
IS IT CONSUMER SPENDING?
WHERE ARE METRICS THAT WILL
GIVE YOU THE MOST IMPORTANT
WINDOW INTO WHETHER OR NOT WE
ARE SEEING THAT SLOWDOWN
MATERIALS.
>> TWO MOST IMPORTANT METRICS
GDP NUMBERS INFLATION NUMBERS
I THINK WE ARE FOCUSED ON IS
HAVING STRONG GROWTH WHILE WE
KEEP INFLATION IN CHECK, I
THINK THE FACT THAT THE OIL
PRICES HAVE COME DOWN
RECENTLY, I THINK THE FACT
THAT YOU SEE INFLATION
HOVERING BELOW 2%, SO BELOW
THE FED TARGET IS A GOOD THING
FOR GROWTH.
AND WE MONITOR ALL THESE
ISSUES MOST IMPORTANTLY, YOU
KNOW I SPEAK TO BUSINESS
EXECUTIVES EVERY SINGLE DAY,
BECAUSE THAT IS HOW I GET A
SENSE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON A
IN THE ECONOMY.
I ALSO SPEAK TO BANKS, BANKS
ARE VERY GOOD INDICATOR IN
TERMS OF WHAT THEY SEE IN
LENDING.
SO, AGAIN, FOR OUR HORIZON, ON
THE OVERALL ECONOMY WE SEE
STRENGTH.
YOU KNOW THERE ARE AREAS LIKE
HOUSING WHICH ARE SLOWING DOWN
A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT A BIG
PART OF THE ECONOMY, I THINK
WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT OF IT.
