COUNTRIES INCLUDING SOMALIA,
HAITI, AFGHANISTAN AND
BANGLADESH.
FACEBOOK IS APOLOGIZING TO A
PRO-LIFE GROUP FOR TAKING DOWN
AN AD.
FACEBOOK SAYS THIS AD DOES NOT
VIOLATE POLICIES AND SHOULDN'T
HAVE BEEN REJECTED.
WE ARE SORRY FOR THE MISTAKE IN
THE AD HAS BEEN RESTORED AND
IT'S NOW RUNNING ON FACEBOOK
PICK IT AND THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE POLICIES THAT PROHIBIT
PRO-LIFE SPEECH.
BUT THIS IS AN B ANTHONY LIST
RUNNING THESE BLOOD GLASSES OUR
PRO-LIFE MESSAGE IS CONSTANTLY
UNDER THREAT BY FACEBOOK.
TALK ABOUT THE CONTROVERSY WITH
CHRIS STIREWALT.
WELCOME.
LET ME TELL YOU TONIGHT WE ARE
HEARING, AND THEY ARE RUNNING
PRO-LIFE ADS.
PLACES LIKE MONTANA, TENNESSEE
AND OTHER BIG RACES.
THEY SAY THEY ARE UP TO SIX OF
THEIR ADS IN SIX DIFFERENT RACES
THAT HAVE BEEN PULLED BY
FACEBOOK AND THEY ARE KIND OF
NOT BUYING THE EXPLANATION THAT
IT WAS A MISTAKE.
ADDING A LOT OF ATTENTION.
>> THAT'S IT.
IF YOU BUY A RELATIVELY CHEAP
ONLINE AD OR AN AD FOR
SOCIAL MEDIA, IF YOU CAN GET A
MULTIPLIER EFFECT, IF YOU
HAVEN'T CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING
IT.
YOU WANT TO REFLECT THIS, ON THE
LEFT AND THE RIGHT, PUSH THE
ENVELOPE.
THEY WANT TO TAKE IT SOMEPLACE
WHERE THERE MAY BE GOING TO GET
VIRAL SHARING GOING ON.
IN THIS CASE, IF THEY CAN SAY WE
WERE CENSORED.
WE WERE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF BY
FACEBOOK.
THEY ARE DOING THE WRONG THING.
THEN I'LL PUT IT THIS WAY.
OTHERWISE WE WOULDN'T BE TALKING
ABOUT IT.
THIS WOULD BE ONE OF A JILLION
RELATIVELY LOW DOLLAR ADS
RUNNING ON FACEBOOK BUT
BECAUSE FACEBOOK TOOK IT DOWN,
IT CREATES CONTROVERSY AND IT'S
A FORCE MULTIPLIER FOR THEM.
>> Shannon: THIS GROUP, THE
SUSAN B. ANTHONY LIST, THEY
SUPPORT PRO-LIFE CANDIDATES.
THEY SAY THEY ARE WONDERING
WHETHER PLANNED PARENTHOOD OR
OTHER GROUPS HAVE GOTTEN THE
SAME TREATMENT FROM FACEBOOK.
THERE ARE LOTS OF POLLS OUT
THERE AND YOU TOOK A LOOK BACK
AT HOW POLES ARE DONE OVER THE
LAST FEW YEARS AND YOU SAY
THEY'RE NOT AS BAD AS PEOPLE
WANT TO ARGUE THEY ARE.
WHAT DID YOU FIND?
>> THE POLES ARE PREDICTIVE.
BEING PREDICTIVE DOESN'T MEAN
BEING RIGHT.
I LOOK BACK TODAY AT THE LAST
THREE MIDTERM ELECTION CYCLES.
I LOOKED AT SENATE RACES.
31 SENATE RACES.
OUT OF THESE 31 SENATE RACES,
THERE WERE ONLY FOUR TIMES THAT
THE AVERAGE IN THE REAL CLEAR
POLITICS AVERAGE OF POLES IN THE
LAST THREE CYCLES DO NOT PREDICT
THE WINNER.
TWO OF THOSE CASES, WE CAN
DISCOUNT, ONE WASN'T CRAZY THREE
WAY RACE AND NO ONE COULD HAVE
POLLED IT.
AT THE OTHER WAS SO CLOSE IT
WASN'T REALLY A MISS.
THE INCUMBENT WAS UP BY
HALF POINT AND ANDY CHALLENGER
ONE BY A POINT.
THERE WERE ONLY TWO REAL MISSES.
YOU CAN BE CONFIDENT THAT THE
POLLS ARE PREDICTIVE.
THEY ARE PREDICTIVE BUT IT
DOESN'T MEAN THEY ARE RIGHT.
THERE WILL BE ERROR AND IT, WE
FOUND IN PREVIOUS YEARS
SOMETIMES YOU MISS A WAVE,
SOMETIMES YOU OVERSTATE A WAVE.
THEY WILL BE WRONG AND THEY WILL
MOSTLY BE WRONG IN THE SAME
DIRECTION.
THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC YEAR, HE DID THE
DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO BE
UNDERSTATED WHERE THEY'RE GOING
TO BE OVERSTATED.
IN THE PAST, IT'S BEEN BY AS
MUCH AS FOUR POINTS BUT THERE'S
GOING TO BE SOME DIRECTION THAT
THESE POLLS ARE GOING TO BREAK
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
IF ANYONE TELLS YOU THEY KNOW
WHICH WAY THEY ARE GOING TO
BREAK, THEY ARE LYING OR CRAZY
OR KIDDING THEMSELVES.
>> Shannon: OR THEY SHOULD BUY
A LOTTERY TICKET.
IN 2016, POLLSTERS TOLD MOST
PEOPLE WOULDN'T TALK TO THEM.
THEY KNEW THAT THERE WOULD BE
UNKNOWNS.
ALL RIGHT, WE WILL SEE YOU IN
