Earth 2100 is a television program that was
presented by the American Broadcasting Company
(ABC) network on June 2, 2009 and was aired
on the History Channel in January 2010 and
was shown through the year.
Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the
two-hour special explored what "a worst-case"
future might look like if humans do not take
action on current or impending problems that
could threaten civilization.
The problems addressed in the program include
current climate change, overpopulation, and
misuse of energy resources.The events following
the life of a fictitious storyteller, "Lucy"
(told through the use of motion comics, or
limited animation), as she describes how the
events affect her life.
The program included predictions of a dystopian
Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085,
and 2100 by scientists, historians, social
anthropologists, and economists, including
Jared Diamond, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Peter Gleick,
James Howard Kunstler, Heidi Cullen, Alex
Steffen and Joseph Tainter.
It ended with a quote from writer Alex Steffen,
saying "Kids born today will see us navigate
past the first greatest test of humanity,
which is: can we actually be smart enough
to live on a planet without destroying it?"According
to Executive Producer Michael Bicks, "this
program was developed to show the worst-case
scenario for human civilization.
Again, we are not saying that these events
will happen — rather, that if we fail to
seriously address the complex problems of
climate change, resource depletion and overpopulation,
they are much more likely to happen."
== Plot ==
Lucy is born on June 2, 2009 (changed to January
1, 2009 in subsequent airings), in the suburbs
of Miami and is still alive in the year 2100.
In 2015, negotiations on climate change action
breaks down between the West and India/China
as the former is unwilling to transfer clean
technology to the latter, while Lucy's family
moves out of the suburbs and into an apartment
in Miami after chronic gas shortages.
A few months later a powerful hurricane named
Linda hits and levels much of Miami, killing
thousands of people.
She and her parents move to San Diego.
She becomes an EMT and meets her husband,
Josh, an engineer, during a protest against
high water prices of California desalinated
seawater in 2030 (Las Vegas had run dry).
In 2050, they and their nineteen-year-old
daughter Molly move to New York City by car,
passing desperate Texans begging for rides
north, which is refused by the trio.
One pulls a gun on Molly, but others in the
car/truck convoy point automatic weapons on
the desperate man, who is forced to back off.
While the others in the convoy make it to
Canada, New York City is a marvel of clean
power, clean transit, and community gardening.
Josh sets to work building a flood barrier
to hold back the ocean, but the CO2 warming
unleashes trapped methane in the Arctic, which
causes even faster, non-linear warming.
An attempt to use sulfur dioxide as a last
resort to cool the planet is called off when
it is found to destroy the ozone layer.
Lucy finds and helps quarantine and neutralize
a strange new disease, and Molly moves upstate
to an agricultural community.
During a storm at high tide in 2075, Josh
is killed while trying to fix a stuck gate,
and New York City is flooded.
Lucy
refuses Molly's offer to live with her, her
husband and son.
Starving people among the rotting flood damage
set the stage for the return of the disease
Lucy saw, now called "Caspian Fever."
Caspian Fever soon becomes a pandemic and
kills so many people on Earth that population
growth starts shrinking, international trade
stops and basic services begin to break down.
Eventually the grid fails, modern technology
stops working, and unrest follows (a plot
contradiction as it was stated earlier that
all technology in New York were self-sustaining),
it dawns on Lucy and every American that there
is no Federal response, no National Guard,
no soldiers to keep order.
Democracy and civilization at the national
level have died in America.
Lucy leaves the city with some friends and
a dog in the 2080s, and eventually finds her
daughter, now a widow like herself, and her
grandson.
Initially there is no communication with the
outside world, until someone set up a two-way
radio discovering former cities have become
relatively advanced walled enclaves, while
surrounded by masses of poverty.
In 2100, Lucy ponders what strange advice
to pass along to her grandson, now denied
the education she took for granted, as she
is the oldest person in the world.
== Development ==
According to early ABC press releases, Earth
2100 was meant to be an "unprecedented television
and Internet event."
The initial phase of the project was an online
"crowdsourcing" project where viewers were
encouraged to submit homemade videos imagining
life in 2015, 2050, and 2100 in locations
in Africa, Australia, United States, Europe,
India, South America, and China.
During the summer and fall of 2008, users
began to post their submissions on the Earth
2100 website, and these videos were cobbled
together into a Web-based narrative showing
the worldwide consequences of population growth,
resource depletion, and climate change.
Multiple delays changed the scope of the project.
Originally, Earth 2100 was set to air in September
2008.
Then, partly due to personal reasons on the
part of producer Michael Bicks, the program
was rescheduled for Spring 2009.
The final product was innovative in its use
of the "motion comics" element and the "Lucy"
story, but used very little user-generated
footage.
The Earth 2100 website, however, does feature
selections of user-created videos representing
the crisis points of 2015, 2050, and 2100.
=== Motion comic ===
Lucy's story was created with a limited animation
technique using the talents of comic book
creators, including Josh Neufeld, Sari Wilson,
Joe Infurnari, George O'Connor, Tim Hamilton,
and Leland Purvis.
Their story was brought to "life" by the visual
effects company Guerilla FX and lead animator
John Bair.
== Reception ==
The Earth 2100 premiere garnered an audience
of nearly 3.7 million viewers, according to
Nielsen Media Research.Response to the broadcast
was mostly confined to online comment boards,
which soon buzzed with debates about the validity
of Earth 2100's predictions, and the show's
overall effectiveness.
Many commenters were annoyed by the show's
apocalyptic, dystopian tone, accusing ABC
of far-fetched fear-mongering.
Thomas Fuller, writing for Examiner.com, accused
ABC of portraying "science fiction" as fact,
and stating that:
. . . when people realize (as they are realizing
now) that temperatures are not going to climb
every year, they are not going to remember
what sober scientists say.
They are going to think of Earth 2100 and
other scare stories about catastrophe, and
realize that they were lies.
They will then completely tune out science
and it will be impossible to even do the sensible
things we can and should do.
ABC made sure to post annotated transcripts
on the Earth 2100 website, outlining the scientific
sources for the program's various predictions,
scenarios, and statements.
Some commenters found the Lucy/motion comic
storyline a very effective way of depicting
the various predictions.
Posts also congratulated ABC for devoting
a two-hour, prime-time spot to the issue,
and asked when the program would be re-aired,
made available on DVD, or posted online.
== See also ==
Ecological economics
Global warming
Malthusian catastrophe
Peak oil, Peak gas, Peak uranium
Planetary boundaries
Societal collapse
Survivalism
Water crisis
