Climate change is real.
It may seem far away - a problem you can’t
see or touch or feel every day.
But it is happening -- and it is global.
To get an idea about what’s at stake -- just
look at your plate.
Food is profoundly affected by climate change
-- from how it’s produced to what we can
grow in the first place.
Climate change will hit our food production
system in four ways: through temperature,
water, extreme weather and carbon dioxide.
Most of us will feel temperature first -- so
will crops.
Production of staples like corn, soybeans
and cotton are projected to increase at first,
then decrease sharply as the average growing
season temperature keeps getting warmer.
For corn alone, it could mean a decrease of
3% in yield – or more than 300 million bushels.
That’s enough corn to feed 40 million people.
It’s not just crops.
Livestock will suffer in the heat, too.
Heat related stress will mean fewer animal
pregnancies, less milk production, longer
times for livestock to reach market weight.
Does anyone benefit from the heat?
Yes -- pests.
The ones that live on our livestock.
That means more diseases spread by insects.
It’s already happened in Northern Europe.
As the region has warmed, “Bluetongue Virus”
has moved north, killing more of these animals.
Widespread disease could hit crops like corn,
too -- as heat-loving earworms spread north
to the upper Midwest and heat-tolerant viruses
like rusts and tobacco mosaic finish off weakened
plants.
Disease and heat will be even bigger problems
as climate change affects water.
A dry climate means less production and more
pests.
Water has a complicated relationship with
crops.
It’s all about the right amount at the right
time.
Too much early on for corn stunts growth;
too little later on does the same.
Irrigation systems keep the balance, but their
sources may dry up as droughts increase.
In the Mississippi Delta region, this could
put 75% of the rice crop at risk.
This rice will also confront another water
problem: saltier water -- as sea levels rise.
Droughts could be brought on by more erratic
rainfall -- part of the pattern of increasingly
extreme weather events.
And when extreme weather brings violent downpours,
there’s another issue: soil erosion and
runoff increase.
All these pieces of the climate puzzle – floods,
droughts and heat waves – can affect crops
and livestock at key moments in their development
-- turning even a productive season into a
disaster.
We’re already seeing a rise in extreme weather
events.
2011 was the most disastrous year on record,
with 16 extreme weather incidents that cost
over one billion dollars.
2012 was a close second and severe storms
continue to cost us billions.
All of these changes circle back to the key
driver of climate change: increased carbon
dioxide, which has its own direct effect on
agriculture.
Carbon dioxide helps plants grow.
More of it could actually help crops get bigger.
But CO2 helps weeds and invasive species grow
even more.
Crops that survive the weeds could be compromised,
with less nutritional value.
Wheat, for example, could have protein levels
drop by more than 10%.
This is complicated business because everything’s
connected.
It all boils down to this: Climate change
could leave us with less food.
And the food we end up with could be less
nutritious.
There are steps that can be taken to mitigate
and adapt to these changes,.
They’re the key to our food – and our
future .
What will be on your plate?
