>> Sreenivasan: THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA HAS BECOME A DANGEROUS
STRATEGIC FLASHPOINT.
THE BUSY WATERWAY IS HOME TO
MAJOR SHIPPING LANES AND
FISHERIES THAT ACCOUNT FOR MORE
THAN A TENTH OF ALL THE FISH
CAUGHT IN THE WORLD.
GREG POLING IS THE DIRECTOR OF
THE ASIAN MARITIME TRANSPARENCY
INITIATIVE AT THE CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES.
WE SPOKE RECENTLY ABOUT THE
ECOLOGICAL TOLL THE DISPUTES IN
THE REGION ARE TAKING ON FOOD
SUPPLIES AND THE LIVELIHOODS OF
MANY.
>> WELL, ECOLOGICALLY SPEAKING,
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS ARGUABLY
THE MOST PRODUCTIVE FISHING ZONE
ON THE PLANET.
IT ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 12% OF
TOTAL FISH CATCH AND EMPLOYEES
OVER HALF THE FISHING VESSELS IN
THE WORLD.
AND AMID THIS DECADES-LONG
SERIES OF MARITIME DISPUTES
BETWEEN CHINA AND ITS NEIGHBORS,
THOSE FISH STOCKS ARE NOW ON THE
VERGE OF COLLAPSE.
>> Sreenivasan: SO, WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN THOSE FISH STOCKS
INEVITABLY COLLAPSE AT THE RATE
THAT WE'RE FISHING THEM?
>> WELL, THE FIRST THING IS,
SOUTHEAST ASIAN COMMUNITIES WILL
BE DEVASTATED.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE THAT RELY
ON FISHING OR FISHING-RELATED
INDUSTRIES, AND MILLIONS OF MORE
THAT RELY ON THIS FISH AND OTHER
MARINE LIFE FOR FOOD SECURITY.
SO, IT DOESN'T MATTER NEARLY AS
MUCH IN CHINA AS IT DOES IN THE
PHILIPPINES OR VIETNAM OR
INDONESIA.
AND IT'S ALSO GOING TO
ACCELERATE THE DISPUTES, RIGHT,
BECAUSE EVERYBODY IS GOING TO BE
IN A RACE TO PULL THE LAST FISH
FROM A DYING SEA.
>> Sreenivasan: OKAY.
AND WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT
"DYING SEA," YOU'RE ALSO TALKING
ABOUT THE IMPACT THAT'S
HAPPENING TO THE CORAL REEFS,
THE NURSERIES RIGHT NOW, AS ALL
OF THESE FISHING VESSELS
CONVERGE AND TRY TO CATCH THOSE
FISH.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
SO, WE HAVE A SERIES OF
CATASTROPHES PILING ON TOP OF
ONE ANOTHER.
THE FIRST IS THE OVERFISHING
PROBLEM.
BECAUSE THERE ARE OUTSTANDING
MARITIME DISPUTES-- NOBODY CAN
AGREE ON WHOSE WATER THESE ARE--
THERE ARE INCENTIVES FOR ALL OF
THE COUNTRIES TO KEEP PUSHING
THEIR FISHERS OUT THERE AS
SIGNALS OF SOVEREIGNTY.
AND ON TOP OF THAT, IN RECENT
YEARS, YOU'VE HAD CHINA'S VERY
FAMOUS ISLAND-BUILDING CAMPAIGN
THAT'S DESTROYED THOUSANDS OF
ACRES OF REEFS; PLUS A SERIES OF
HARMFUL FISHING PRACTICES,
ESPECIALLY THE HARVESTING OF
GIANT CLAMS, WHICH, MAINLY FROM
THE CHINESE SIDE, DESTROYS THE
ENTIRE REEF.
AND THAT HAS DAMAGED OVER 50,000
ACRES OF REEF.
>> Sreenivasan: AND IT... JUST
TO PUT IN PERSPECTIVE, CORAL
REEFS DON'T GO BACK... COME BACK
OVERNIGHT.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
SOME OF THESE-- THE ONES THAT
YOU'VE PROBABLY SEEN PICTURES OF
CHINESE AIR BASES GOING ON TOP
OF-- THOSE ARE DEAD FOREVER.
A LOT OF THE OTHERS COULD COME
BACK, BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE
DECADES OF BEING LEFT ALONE.
AND RIGHT IN THERE, ABOUT NOW,
THERE'S VERY LITTLE CHANCE THAT
THEY'RE GOING TO BE LEFT ALONE.
>> Sreenivasan: GIVE US ALSO A
LIST OF THE COUNTRIES THAT ARE
ALL DISPUTING IT, BECAUSE WHEN
YOU LOOK AT DIFFERENT MAPS,
THERE'S DIFFERENT PEOPLE THAT
HAVE CLAIMS TO SIMILAR KIND OF
OVERLAPPING AREAS.
>> SO, IF WE JUST TALK ABOUT THE
WATERS, SET ASIDE THE ISLANDS
THEMSELVES, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
CHINA AND TAIWAN ON ONE HAND;
AND THEN, VIETNAM, THE
PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, INDONESIA
AND BRUNEI-- ALL WITH
OVERLAPPING CLAIMS TO THE WATERS
AND THE REEFS AND NO PATH
FORWARD AT THE MOMENT.
>> Sreenivasan: AND WHAT IS THE
U.S.' INTEREST IN ALL OF THIS?
WHERE DO WE STAND?
WHO DO WE SUPPORT, OR WHO ARE WE
ALLIED WITH?
>> THE U.S. IS INTERESTED
PRIMARILY ABOUT THE RULES,
RIGHT?
SO, WE DON'T REALLY CARE,
ULTIMATELY, WHO CONTROLS WHICH
ROCK OR WHO CONTROLS WHICH REEF.
THAT IS FOR THE STATES TO DECIDE
THEMSELVES.
WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THEY DO IT
ACCORDING TO THE RULES.
AND THE PROBLEM FROM THE U.S.'
PERSPECTIVE IS THAT CHINA'S
CLAIM AND TAIWAN'S CLAIM DOESN'T
FOLLOW THOSE RULES.
EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD,
UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW, GETS A
200-NAUTICAL MILE EXCLUSIVE
ECONOMIC ZONE IN WHICH ONLY THEY
CAN FISH.
CHINA CLAIMS 1,000 MILES, FIVE
TIMES THE LEGAL LIMIT, AND WE'RE
NOT PREPARED TO ACCEPT THAT.
>> Sreenivasan: AND WHAT ABOUT
THE SHIP TRAFFIC THAT GOES
THROUGH THIS AREA?
>> IT IS THE BUSIEST SHIPPING
AREA ON THE PLANET.
SO, THE... THE STRAIT OF
MALACCA, AT THE SOUTH SOUTHERN
END OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, SEES
MORE SHIPS FASTER THAN ANYWHERE
ELSE, ABOUT THREE TIMES THAT OF
THE PANAMA CANAL.
NO... NONE OF THE PARTIES HAVE
AN INTEREST IN STOPPING THAT
TRAFFIC.
THE CHINESE ARE JUST AS RELIANT
ON THAT TRADE WITH ANYBODY ELSE.
BUT INEVITABLY, IF THERE'S A
CONFLICT, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE
TRAFFIC HAVE TO DIVERT AROUND
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH A NOT
INCONSIDERABLE COST.
>> Sreenivasan: SO, IF CHINA
TAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE
TOWARDS, SAY, THE PHILIPPINES,
DOES THE UNITED STATES GET
INVOLVED THEN?
>> IF THE CHINESE USE FORCE, THE
PHILIPPINES ARE UNIQUE HERE AND
THAT THEY ARE A U.S. TREATY
ALLY.
THE UNITED STATES IS LEGALLY AND
MORALLY BOUND TO COME TO THE
DEFENSE OF THE PHILIPPINES IF
FILIPINO TROOPS OR PLANES OR
VESSELS ARE ATTACKED.
AND WHEN SECRETARY OF STATE MIKE
POMPEO VISITED MANILA AFTER THE
FAILED HANOI SUMMIT WITH NORTH
KOREA A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, HE
CLARIFIED EXACTLY THIS POINT,
THAT A CHINESE ATTACK ON
FILIPINO ASSETS IN DISPUTED
WATERS WOULD FALL UNDER THAT
OBLIGATION FOR THE U.S. TO
RESPOND.
>> Sreenivasan: AND AT THE SAME
TIME, FILIPINO LEADER DUTERTE IS
TRYING TO MAKE, I GUESS, CLOSER
TIES OR FORGE CLOSER TIES WITH
CHINA AT THE SAME TIME, RIGHT?
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
DUTERTE CAME INTO OFFICE IN 2016
PROMISING CLOSER TIES WITH
BEIJING, BELIEVING THAT THE
FORMER PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT HAD
GONE TOO FAR IN TRYING TO PUSH
ITS CLAIMS IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA.
AND DUTERTE FELT THAT IF HE JUST
SHELVED THESE CLAIMS, THE
CHINESE WOULD BEHAVE BETTER,
WOULD TREAT THE FILIPINOS MORE
NICELY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT HASN'T
HAPPENED.
THERE'S BEEN IN AN ENORMOUS
AMOUNT OF PLEDGED AID INVESTMENT
FROM CHINA, BUT NONE OF IT'S
SHOWN UP.
AND CHINESE SHIPS CONTINUE TO
HARASS FILIPINO VESSELS
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
THEY'RE TRYING TO CONTINUE TO
MILITARIZE THE REEFS AND ISLANDS
THAT THEY OCCUPY.
AND OVER THE LAST YEAR OR SO,
WE'VE SEEN A RETURN OF THIS
MASSIVE CLAM DIGGING THAT'S JUST
DEVASTATING FILIPINO FISHING
GROUNDS.
>> Sreenivasan: ALL RIGHT, GREG
POLING, THE DIRECTOR OF THE
ASIAN MARITIME TRANSPARENCY
INITIATIVE, THANKS SO MUCH.
>> THANK YOU.
