Hello everyone and welcome to today's virtual program at the commonwealth club, my name is quentin hardy
I'm the head of editorial google cloud and i'll be moderating today's program
This program is part of the commonwealth's club virtual series and we like to thank our members donors and supporters for making this
And all our programs possible, we're grateful for their support and hope others will follow their example and support the club during these uncertain times
Today i'm excited to be talking with david frum senior editor at the atlantic and author of the new book
Trumpocalypse restoring american democracy. I think you'll agree the state of our nation could not be a more timely topic
David comes to it with a well-defined point of view as a former speechwriter for george
W bush and a popular political commentator. He has been one of the leading anti-tribe
trump voices on the right
in trump apocalypse
He looks at many of the structural issues that undergird our present political impasse and offers a path forward in a post-donald trump. America
Huge swaths of the country voted for donald trump and david argues that a post-trump country
Will have to find a way either to reconcile these people to democracy
Or protect democracy from them
If you're watching along with us and have a question, you'd like me to ask david
Please put it in the text chat on youtube and i'll be asking them later in the program. Excuse me on zoom
David thank you for joining us the other day
I was looking at the calendar and I realized the republican convention is about 12 weeks away
Then I looked 12 weeks back and saw that the u.s. Unemployment rate back then was 4
And there had been 26 deaths from covet 19 12 weeks ago
I realized I couldn't really confidently imagine the world 12 weeks from now
Which brings me to my first question?
What's it like to publish a book where everything's changing so quickly?
Well, this has been an issue all through the trump years, um that
we're like people moving through a wind tunnel with chairs and stools and
Bar, um doors flying at our heads
and that has been it's been a constant problem when I i've now written two of these books one at the beginning one at
I expect the end of the trump presidency and in both cases, there were things at the very last minute
so the challenge when you write it is
To be current but also to talk about something
deeper because
You're going to publish the book at some time. And then there will be some astonishing event that will happen after publication date
no matter what that is and although there was time in tranpocalypse to talk about the
very severe onset of
um the coronavirus and the and the lockdowns, of course, it was written before this spasm of
Civil turmoil that we've had after the killing of uh in minneapolis of george floyd
so
You try and focus I think and what makes the book durable to me and successful overall. Is it focuses on various structural?
and political weaknesses and also cultural weaknesses or a kind of cultural impasse we've reached
And there's an awareness of the interplay between the politics and the culture
That evolved to create this moment. I want to get into both of those but
Let me begin by asking you what are the key elements that you explain the election of donald trump?
In the first place back in 2016. right?
I think that it's not hard to explain his election
what is hard is to explain his nomination donald trump won election because of
The unrepresentative quality of the american electoral system. Um, he got
A little over 46 percent of the vote less than al gore less than john. Kerry less than mitt romney
He got barely more than john mccain barely more than michael dukakis
About 54 of the american public voted against donald trump and in any other democracy, that would have been enough to um condemn his chances
He eked it out in the united states because of a series of of flukes
Lucky breaks for him. Um, the fbi the russians things like that
The thing that really has to be explained is the whole america the elaborate american political system the party system the primaries
All of it is designed
precisely to screen people like donald trump from getting close enough that it could be that they could benefit from the
uh, unrepresentativeness of the american political system
And so you have to ask what happened? What went wrong and the argument and I laid this out in a previous book
trumpocracy is that
basically
After the and the bush presidency, um, that was it iraq was a trauma for the republican party
the financial crisis was a trauma for the republican party and it responded to those things by veering off in an ideological direction not
reconnecting with not using the time in opposition to reconnect with the country which is what a successful political party does but
Chasing off after an ever more extreme ideology the tea party
that
pulled republican leaders not only away from the country but away from even their own voters and I wrote i've written
a lot about this I wrote a lot about this in 2014 2015
That republican voters also were suffering loss of health insurance after the financial catastrophe. They were also feeling the stresses of
mass immigration too much too fast
They were also worried that too much wealth was concentrating at the very top and not enough was reaching the middle class
And their party ignored all of those things. I had this joke and that the republican base was signaling
We want more health care less immigration and no more bushes and the party offered them
Less less health care more immigration and one more bush
and donald trump stepped into that gap and then once he was the nominee of the republican party, of course the the
Unfairness of the american electoral system and the russians and the fbi they put him over the top
right, so in a sense
You're portraying
A world where it's a failure of cultural elites in a sense that what you call
Trump's delusions of grandeur and his fantasies of revenge
are enabled by the
deficit-happy
Short-term-minded media addicted culture that rewards the most privileging
Privileged people in society while asking very little of them and chooses solipsistic yelling over thoughtful discourse
Is that a fair diagnosis?
You're putting your finger on something very important. And um
Something i'm going to need to confess and not everyone's going to like what i'm about to say
but my view of politics is it is very much driven by elites that it always has been and always will be
And we need to understand what it means to to be a member of an elite
It's not a question of moral superiority nor is it entirely a question of wealth that there are people who?
Are positioned in ways that they have more?
Clout in their society than others do and that is just inherent in the nature of human society and the test of a system
Celebrities out nowadays. I mean there is a hierarchy of attention. Yes, right. It's just the way it is
um, and uh
Some people pay more attention to things and some people pay less some some more cultural power
And in every kind of society that will always be true
What has defined? Um?
american society has made american society successful and and
healthy has been first that uh
American elites are close closer to most people than elites are in other kinds of societies. They are not a
Hereditary aristocracy. They didn't used to have enormously more wealth than other people
Um, they had uh, they uh, they knew that their children and grandchildren would not enjoy a permanently advantaged position
uh that we rotated people in and out of that elite, um, you know,
The great grandchildren of the founding fathers were not themselves. Um,
Ruling the country in the 1850s and 1860s
Uh, and and that and the other test was this was supposed to be public spirited and this was really true in the years after
world war ii institutions like the commonwealth club itself reflect this the sense of you know,
You had had some success in business and politics and the arts you owed something you had to give something back
You couldn't just look out for yourself. Um
And we lost uh, we developed an increasingly
plutocratic
hereditary out of touch
Irresponsible and selfish elite and a lot of what has happened
donald trump is sort of the punishment that our society got because of the failure of of those elites to
Be more attentive to the country that benefited them so much
Now as someone who wrote a book about the 70s, would you lay this on the boomers?
No, I I wouldn't make such a genuine. I mean I think things happened in the 70s
The the that that made it possible the thesis of my book on the 70s
was that um
I I was born in 1960 that
the years from
1917 to
About 1980 were a period where because of two world wars a cold war and a great depression. American society became
developed a stronger state
Greater equality and a stronger sense of nationhood than it had ever had before
And that we could see from the point. I wrote that book in the 1990s and 2000s
For and that it would have later that we sort of un we undid all this so the changes came. Um,
I think because of basically because of peace because of the end the the uh,
the end of the great wars the end of the cold war the end of uh,
Tending toward the end of the cold war
Um the end of the great depression and so we got this incredible concentration of wealth
We got a return to greater diversity in the country
We saw a weakening of the central state and that was both a good thing and a bad thing
I don't think anybody wants to go back to the world of
1965 with one phone company and the government regulating checking accounts
But we also lost something and the challenge and this is the thesis of trapocalypse is to find some way
To restore that sense of nationhood and cohesion and mutual responsibility
While still benefiting from having more than one phone company
This is funny because it well not funny. It's
Deeply resonant. Um
But it's odd because while reading this I said to myself
This sounds like the story of a great power that has grown so weak and uncertain about itself
That the only thing it can believe in is its own power?
right, but that the
Trouble is and the danger is and this is one of the reasons the trump
Presidency is so harmful is america's power in relative terms is fading
That's just that's just a fact when I worked
Um in the bush administration and that wasn't so long ago not even quite two decades ago
The american economy was then approximately three times the size of the chinese economy and russia of course was no kind of major power
And india was still barely beginning to get its act together as a great power great economy
Today china is if it hasn't yet caught up to the united states
Very soon it will uh india will probably do so soon after um, and russia is back in a mischief making way
The united states cannot impose itself on the world the way it could after the cold war
And I think donald trump's presidency is a little bit of a scream of rage against that donald trump's whole idea. I
Talk you
listen
I give orders you all obey but he's doing this in a climate in which the united states needs friends needs partners more than ever
before
And he's alienated
yes, and when you only believe in your own power, um
You have a tendency to nostalgia and how great that power was make america great again project power
It's not really
projecting an ideology other countries can understand or
Attach themselves to I have a section in trump apocalypse where I talk about. Um
Donald trump's fourth of july speech that he delivered at the lincoln memorial. Uh, latin just last last summer. Um,
He'd wanted a military parade and the military as is quite good at
Finding ways to evade things that donald trump wanted it to do
Um, he wanted to have a giant military parade down pennsylvania avenue like they have in paris
The military didn't want to do it for a lot of reasons
Expense, uh, it's burdensome on the troops. These are
Well-paid professionals they have real work to do
Um, this is sort of the equivalent of gary cohen taking memos off his desk only with tanks
Right, right well and so, in fact, they ended up having two park tanks on either side of him and you know
We were promised a parade
We got two park tanks and then a fly past
But the thing that was striking with that speech and I talked about it a lot in apocalypse
Is it was a speech which donald trump talked about the america the power?
Of the american military all the wars. It had won and never once referred to any of the ideals for which the united states
had fought power worshiped power for its own sake and that has never
Never been the american way the whole point
Even america always justifies sometimes untruthfully
By the way to be we have to face that but often enough truthfully that there is something more at stake here than just
being bigger and stronger I mean
the united united states
Has fought wars to seize land and seize wealth from other people that's part of american history. But at least in the 20th century
And and in the civil war it fought wars for something more and that's part of the story and he just couldn't
reckon with that and it was
the kind of imperial boasting that could fit in the mouth of any
Warlord
It was un-american and that's what he's doing. He's making this country on america
and you know, I have my share of grievances with certain american wars, but
it must also be put in the balance that the us military is possibly the world's largest humanitarian organization in terms of
infrastructure building coming to the aid of certain people
Um without the violence just as a certain ruling institution and none of that is in this this vision of american power
No, there isn't there is little important message here. It is a a culture of fear
just as you say and of course the uh, the fear comes from trump himself that I I talk I
Try in both the two books not to get too much into donald trump's head. Um, I do a little bit
Um, but i'm i'm interested
These are books. I want to remain relevant after donald trump personally is gone
But it is important to understand that as a person that donald trump
Um is driven by fear and hate I say in trump apocalypse. He loves nobody and nobody loves him
and
I say in trump apocalypse and this is very relevant
I think what we see in the streets of our cities now that the only the only thing he feels is
Pain, and so the only thing he can give is pain. He cannot give comfort because he has not and
uh, it is his um, it is his lack of those kinds of essentials that make him such a
strange president every one of his predecessors everyone
Had something outside of himself and someday herself to lean on
Often the love of a wife often the love of their children. Um
Uh many much of the time of faith in god, um certainly a sense of history and connection to the past
maybe even the love of
internalizing reversals
Yes, or or even the love of a pet a dog or a horse or even a cat they had something you the idea of
This completely solitary person. No one loves him and he loves nobody
It's very transactional. It's
Well, it's a man who's educated by roy cohen, i'll put it that way
Yeah
and look it's and even the transactions, you know, one of the things that transactional people learn especially when they get to be
you know older than
teenagers
is that um
your the transactions have a long lifetime if you ever acquire if you
gain, an advantage in a transaction by lying to the other person or by
Um cheating them
They'll remember it and they'll tell other people about it and that will inhibit your ability to do future transactions
I mean when we say honesty is the best policy
Honesty is also a policy
It's a good way to behave yourself because it's valuable to have that relation that reputation and so it is for countries
and one of the things that you see and I talk about this a lot in trump apocalypse is one of the reasons
That the united states finds itself now in such a dangerous position in the world
is because he has given the united states a reputation for bad faith, you know, I think and I offer paths and trump into
apocalypse
Much of the harm that trump has done at home can with time and with money be repaired
But the damage that trump has done to the united states in the world that will be much harder because america's friends partners enemies
um and the skeptical world
They know if you did this once they know it's now added in the list of things that are possible
Things that people thought were impossible are now possible and if something is possible once it is possible twice
well
One of the
Logical
Truths of this is the rest of the world will look at us as a country that can elect a donald trump, right?
We'll never get past that
Right. I I had this acute feeling early in the trump. I mean I think about this
A lot. I take this very much to heart. I remember on the night of the 2016 election. I was on
a television program and and I was just
You you there's nowhere where you know less about what is going on than when you're on tv you're sealed in a box
And you're talking and only you know, only in the commercial breaks and you look at your phone and find out anything
It's a quite a perverse way to to observe an election you're cut off from information while you're commenting on it
Um, anyway, i'm very very late
and um
When I finally was able to call home. My wife was asleep. Um
My older kids were at college. Um, but my I got my youngest girl on the phone, and I just I just
I was so I said we failed you. We just I i'm so ashamed i'm so sorry
I'm, so disappointed we we failed you and then soon after that we were on a trip to california
We we went to see the reagan library in the simi valley
And if you've ever done it, there's this winding drive up the hill and there are banners with images of all of the past presidents
and
Barack obama's image was there and you realized
My god in in just a few months
This is between election and august. Donald trump's image is going to be there. That's incredible
How is that? How do we
How do we fit this into our national story and of course we can't deny it because it's true
It is also part of who americans are
If we were to deny it, that would be part of the problem
That'll be part of the problem, you know surfacing
Unpleasant truths has been a major theme
in
On the streets right now
And with that in mind i'd actually like to turn to a question from our audience
What impact do you think the rioting and trump's response to it will have on the election in november
Will his law and order characterization gain him votes to win in this climate
Well, thank you for asking
This is a question much on on people's minds clinton and I were talking about it just before the podcast. Um
I
Have written in the atlantic. I I do not
Think the easy analogy to richard nixon in 1968
holds at all and for many many reasons, um
First the obvious one richard nixon in 1968 was the challenger. Not the incumbent
so if there was disorder that was the fault of the incumbent that richard nixon could say
Look, there's disorder everywhere fire the people who brought you the disorder hire somebody else
Donald trump is presiding over the disorder, but there's something there are more things that are going on than that next
Forget the richard nixon that you know
The richard nixon of watergate richard nixon of the tapes if you're an american voter in the summer of 1968
The way you knew richard nixon above all was as the former vice president of president
dwight eisenhower the most popular
living politician in the united states
Um, he's still alive in 1968 and a person whose two terms were synonymous with peace order tranquility stability
Nixon was in many ways in the joe biden position nixon's offer was
I'm, the eisenhower guy, you've had all this excitement and drama with john. F kennedy then all this turbulence and
War and rioting and civil commotion with lyndon. Johnson vote for me
I'm bringing back the eisenhower era of tranquility and calm and you know that war we're fighting in vietnam right now
Dwight eisenhower also inherited a war a frustrating war from his democratic president
His democratic predecessor and he ended it within six months
With honor, I think I can do the same thing and that seemed history speaking of history repeating itself to a voter
That seemed like applause. Yeah, well, we want eisenhower back last thing
We now
with um
Racial trauma so much on our mind when we think of riot. We think of disorder
We think of the phrase law order
we assume that nixon was talking entirely and exclusively about the urban riots of the 1960s watts in 65 and detroit in
67 and the other in newark and and so on
But when you look at richard nixon's ads, I i've got a link to them in the article. I
most wrote most recently there is not
an
a noticeably
African-american face anywhere that I maybe there's one lurking far in the background of one of the shots
But in all of his news footage everyone is non-black
And they are students
They are police and the ad is about student upheaval
And what is really striking about the ads is the students aren't always the villains
because in about half the frames what you see are clean-cut
Young typically young men, uh covered with blood having been clubbed by mayor daley's police. Remember mayor daley, of course was
A crucial political ally of both. John f kennedy and linda johnson
so what nixon's law and order message was not only will I bring back social peace, but
Look at this
Mayor daley, look at what he's doing. He's the he's of them. He's on their side
He's the one who clubbed your college student children, and I we don't like the radicals and hear pictures of them
But here are the pictures of these other and the police are shown in very unflattering ways
In the ad here, are these out of control police last thing?
One difference 1968 was a three-way race. Not a two-way race nixon was endlessly triangulating not only against
What he would portray as the excessive liberalism of hubert humphrey, but against the outspoken segregation
of george wallace and lin nixon's speeches about law and order always balanced the importance of
Order and the importance of justice he would say again. And again, he said it in his nomination acceptance. Speech
There's no there's no order without just there's no justice without order, but there's also no order without justice
We must respect the law
But if we want the law to be but to respect the law the law must be worthy of respect
He would say that over and over again contrasting himself with wallace. Trump is daily. Trump is wallace
Trump is the incumbent the riots are hurting him and we can see that in the polls already
okay, i'll take another question to the audience and
Tweak it a little bit
Uh, the question is will trump continue to be influential even if he does not win
which I think is a comment on you know, whether the character of donald trump and the trump family if they lose but also
Let me add to that. What do you think?
Will be the enduring result of donald trump. This is not just a blip in judges alone
He's had a profound impact and we have a heavy deficit good and bad. What will be the legacy here?
so two questions
Yeah, the two questions are the two questions are very very different and I think the second question
is more exciting to me forgive me than than the first um
as to the personal and enduring consequence for donald trump, uh
I'm originally from canada and what um
I
attended college the united states and
A professor friend of mine who's explaining the difference from the american and canadian character to me once said a very memorable thing
So the thing to understand about the united states is americans love underdogs, but they hate losers
and if donald trump
Leaves he will be a loser and he's probably going to be quite a big loser
He probably will take down the senate with him
So I have pinned at the top of my twitter feed a slogan i've been using when this is all over
Nobody will admit to ever having been for it
So I think there will be people who will try to find some ways to rationalize donald trump
But he's going to fade real fast, and he's going to have enormous legal problems after he leaves the presidency both federal and state
And and his business is going to be a wreck
And he's not going to be able to direct public money toward it anymore
He's not going to be able to extract benefits from other foreign power. So he's going to be consumed with those problems
So I think his post-presidential future if that's what happens in 2020
Is going to be preoccupied and grim and no
Example but it is true that his legacy will be enduring and that we have um what he's shown us things about ourselves
Many of them dark, but this is the thing. I really want to
I really do believe this and this is the hopeful thing one of his legacies has been um,
a reactivation of the american conscience in a way that um seems once would have seemed extremely
unlikely, uh donald trump
Without donald trump. I don't think there would have been a metoo movement
because
What and I don't want to say just speak about that movement but there so much of life is
Is petty injustices
That seem very large to the people who suffer those injustices, but that are easily rationalized by people
on the other end
It is easy as a man to shrug off many of the complaints that you hear about me
You know rude remarks in the office or demeaning or not taking somebody seriously or you know?
Asking them out a few one too many times and not in a way they like I mean how big a deal is that?
Really and if you're a man, it's easy to say not such a big deal. Um or um,
Or the police abuses that have triggered these uprisings
I mean how many as you you know?
the the number of people unarmed people killed by police of any race in the united states in a year is really
Is is not that big I think it's a couple of dozen and it's oh and it's dramatically smaller than it used to be
So if you're someone who's in no danger of suffering that you can say, it doesn't seem like such a big problem
It doesn't seem and seems to be getting better
So why should we make such a fuss over the few cases that that haven't been resolved?
but donald trump and there's so many other examples I mean
casual
Attitudes of neglect or disrespect were the disabled. Um, donald trump took those things
And he put him on a jumbotron
Times a billion the president on his twitter feed every day
And he made it so big and so present and so assertive you couldn't not see it
And when you saw it you had to say, how do do you like it? How do you like it?
you can't let's close your eyes and
And people said many people said who'd never thought about it before I don't like it at all. I asked change
And I think
In a strange way, there's another dimension of that which is when it's on the drum jumbotron and you're experiencing
This noise machine
that the president appears to revel in um
You're getting a sense
of something that's at the heart of
both the metoo
and the racism uh, which is
It's not so much the particular case it's waking up
Every day inside that world as someone who might experience it. That's your american reality
And there's a broader sense of that now and that it's happening under trump may not be
entirely coincidental
Look, I think one of the secrets of trump's appeal
uh has been
that for some people
um
typically men, uh, typically
white men typically men about my age but not only but typically that group and typically those who are um, not
Super advantaged but who have rather more advantages than most there's something powerfully emancipating about donald trump
I mean he's being just the kind of jerk that you've always wanted to be
and maybe that you are but you feel inhibited socially inhibited before donald trump and he's given you permission and that I think
There are people find that
emancipating and exciting and thrilling and at last last someone is saying it like it is
Um, but when you say well, let's go back to the most really decadent thing. I've heard in this
Conversation don't don't, you know people like that. Well you live on the west coast
Maybe you don't I i'm sure I know people like that
But you know their mom has raised them not to do that stuff
I mean, it's a we all have the devil in us and that's as old as history, but
You know people
And i'm sure i'm sure many people watching us
will know people who
Like trump a lot and when you press them on what they like about him, that's what they like that. He's uninhibited
He says it like it is and
So the when you say what is the legacy the legacy is okay
Right. That's how
It is or has been
does it have to be that way and we are going to have
and I think what we have seen as a majority of american society and a pretty strong majority saying
If that's the way it is, it has to change and now that this has been brought so forcefully to our attention
I think
We are poised and this is the second half of trump apocalypse on the age of one of those periodic moments of american
Social moral cultural political reform. Um
I think that may be a big theme of the 2020s and I offer
In the book some paths as to what those reforms might look like
that is the hinge and let's turn to that for a moment because
You talk about some structural things that are very direct electoral college gerrymandering
Things you'd like to see changed in the system
Why don't you work through those for a couple of minutes and then we'll handicap their chances?
okay, so
I am very focused on the achievable the deliverable the realistically doable. Um
I wrote the book assuming the democrats would probably win. Uh
The presidency in 2020 and very possibly win the senate in 2020
I also wrote the book and I don't exactly say this. But under the shadow, I believe that a recession was coming. This is before
Um coronavirus I thought it would be caused by trump's trade policies
um, and so
And the recent history that recessions when they come american
Recessions in recent years have tended to be very hard to they last a long time which it takes a long time
To get back to full employment. So
It occurred to me that 2022 might be a bad year for the democrats because the recession probably will still be with us 2022
So you've got 24 months use them wisely. What can you do? So I don't talk about the electoral college because that's not feasible
what I do talk but is
Reforming the senate by getting rid of the filibuster which can be done in half an hour. Um, it just takes
the willing to a senate majority that's because it's not
You don't even need the signature of the presidents. The filibuster is a rule of the senate. It's not a law
It's certainly not the constitution
And it's been tampered with before get rid of it. It's already been got rid of for judicial appointments get rid of it
um
And although you'll hear people say well what happens when our side is out of power
The fact is the only way senator has become so extremely lopsided
The only hope that the american majority has for ever being allowed to govern itself
Is say if you can get 50 senate seats, you get 51 you got to pass laws like it is in any other democratic body
Uh, then once having done that the next step is statehood for the district of columbia
Which takes a vote in the house a vote in the senate a signature by the president
and that adds two senators who are likely to be
urban, possibly democratic
and probably people of color because this this is a uh,
The district columbia will be have a slight majority of people of color over uh others
um, I talk about the importance of developing a new voting rights act to replace the voting rights act that was
Changed in 2013 the supreme court struck down not the whole of the voting rights act but important sections of it
for reasons that by the way weren't crazy the supreme court said
the sections of the voting right act that we are dealing with said
A jurisdiction gets special voting scrutiny. Um according to its voting practices in the years before 1965
The supreme court said how is that a basis for special scrutiny under the voting rights act hawaii gets special scrutiny and wisconsin does not
But why is a good actor uh, um in voting rules and wisconsin is the worst actor north the mason-dixon line
So how does it make sense to have wisconsin get away with everything scot-free?
So I talk about those in other
Reforms of the political system to open the way then to some more challenging social and economic reforms that are also necessary
If we are to as you said in the introduction either reconcile more of the country to democratic norms or minimize
The anti-democratic minorities ability to do harm to democratic norms
You're right to call me out you did not
talk about changing the electoral college, but you do see it as a problem that you say rural america is
disproportionately represented
Yes that a lasting problem for the country and the culture
um, it's a I I have a section in the book where I talk about the silent majority a phrase the president tweeted again this
Morning
and point out that
American majorities tend not to be the majority that that was a phrase
It was coined back when you could imagine that the suburbs and the small towns in rural
America were united against the cities and they were the majority
But the american majority today is urban
Lives on the coasts, um and it and it is the country is governed by a self-congratulatory
Minority I quote in in the book. Sarah palin's speech at the democrat. Sorry the republican convention in 2008 where she she had this
Very eloquent tribute to small town. America god bless them I said
Can you imagine a candidate at a democratic convention standing up and saying?
We raise good people on the upper west side of manhattan and on the streets of west hollywood
They're they're they're imaginative they're creative they're
The mind reels you could never say that it would be people would be astonished the people
of west hollywood and new york would be astonished like that's not how america talks but
University campus here in berkeley are good people exactly
And you know and and and look and we small town. America. We pay your bills. You're welcome
But
When you were speaking earlier
Um, let's talk more about the the social change that has to take place. You were speaking that eventually
um
No one will have supported trump
This is in in the future sort of the way. No one's granddad was in the clan, basically
um, it's gonna feel like that but
Is that really the case I mean today?
lindsey graham is
Investigating the russia investigation. We're looking forward to a summer of investigations of the bidens
Yesterday I think
20 or 30 senators were asked what they thought of trump's photo opportunity and they all were on their way to lunch couldn't comment
Do you really see people pulling away?
Or is this something?
of the
mystery and charisma of politics that when it goes away everyone disavows you
Let's just bookmark this and people can check
In two years three years, it'll take about that long whether I was right or wrong, but here's what will happen
um if trump loses and if he especially if he loses big
And if the republicans especially if they lose the senate and suffer losses at the state level
Uh, what you're going to hear is people saying look I was never for trump
I mean, obviously he was a big spender. He was very liberal on a lot of issues
I I never liked the deficits I was concerned I
Just thought the media was so biased I wasn't
For trump. I was against the I thought that people had trump derangement syndromes and were unfair by standing up against media bias
Um, they will never say they will never acknowledge that you know, I thought he did a great job with handling covet
I mean just notice in the past 10 days how quiet all of his normal supporters are um that the
um
The pro-trump the most noisy pro-trump talkers
Are happiest not when they're talking about trump
but when they're attacking the new york times or who or democratic or um or democratic women at that so
We're going to be in a position where two years from now. It's going to be great because trump will be gone
They don't have to defend the crazy things. He says and does and they can spend all their time
um explaining how
democratic
uh how this democratic woman is a socialist and this one is uh scheming to take away your guns and that one is going to
uh an antifa is going to come to your house and
Steal your underwear and socks, um, and that they'll be perfect. They'll be so happy. They can go on attack
uh
I think one of the things we've seen in the trump years is
Democrats like to govern and republicans like to complain and so we may be in
Two years in a situation where both sides get their wish
You're uh, you know, a lot of republicans in power. Um,
How do they explain this and their participation in it? And how do they react to your ideas in trunkpocalypse?
well
I I think um
I I have to tell the story carefully but um
a friend of mine, uh
Was put up for an important job by an important elected republican who was a political
Pa as was my friend's political patron
and uh
my my friend said as my sort of the political patron said to my friend, um, you know,
I'm putting you forward for this thing, and I think it's good for you
I I and I would benefit from having you in this important job. Um, so I really hope you'll keep it
take it my friend who was in the private life said well, i'm i'm honored and i'm excited but
You have to understand. I mean i'll be in trouble at home
But my wife just hates president trump and the power broker said your wife hates president trump
Like he's not I mean
there's a lot of
You know when he goes down there are a lot of people who will be happy that he goes down. Um
uh
but how do they rationalize it people right people rationalize it my
Atlanta colleague ann applebaum had a fantastic piece in the atlantic two days ago, but how do people rationalize it?
Um, they rationalize it by saying it's so important that I be there i'm protecting the country from him
They rationalize it by saying well, the democrats are worse
That's that's the most common thing you hear is that you know, yeah, I don't like this thing
I don't like that thing. But you know, do you really want um nancy pelosi deciding on taxes? You know, that would be intolerable
Um, so there are series of coping mechanisms
Right well
Trillion dollar deficit that that now looks like that if we get the day we get back to a lousy trillion dollar deficit
That's going to be a huge win, I wouldn't I think we're on the way to a 300 million dollars
um
Now
In the other part of the republican establishment the lincoln project and the never trumpers
Do you think that is being effective this process of is it more trolling or are they really pursuing something?
Good and useful here
so the people these these groups are
in many cases friends of mine often very dear friends of mine and I really I salute their work and
their courage and many of them have um taken
real economic and personal, uh
blows in order to do this work
um
And it's uh, you know, the position of a george conway is obviously not an enviable one
My book is dedicated to the conservatives
Libertarians and republicans of of never trump and I quote about them the words of an old methodist hymn
When all were false I found the true, so I I salute them
It's true as you say that for the first two years of the trump presidency that pro-trump republicans derided
Anti-trump republicans and the joke that flourished in washington was uh, anti-trump never trump is not a political party. It's a dinner party
But here's what happened in the election of 2018. Republicans lost their majority in the house of representatives biggest democratic
uh congressional wins since watergate and the democrats won those seats not
Um in liberal places because they already had those seats and they didn't win back
Um some of the more hard scrabble, um parts of the party that had been democratic a generation ago
They didn't win back rural kentucky where they won was precisely in affluent republican leaning suburbs
They won districts like texas seven that was
That's the district in river oaks houston. That was george h.w bush's district
It was republican from 1966 to 2018 through watergate the iraq war everything saved republican. What democrat in 2018
The democrats in 2018 won what had been gingrich's district in affluent northwestern atlanta?
georgia
six, um had been republicans straight from 1978 to 2018 democrat won it eric cantor number two in the uh,
Republican the house of representatives under obama represented an affluent area just west and north of the city of richmond virginia that seat
Uh went democrat, um near where I live
on the south shore of the potomac river
There's a district, um, virginia 10 that has been republican for 60 of the past 66 years
Uh democrat won it and by the way in all four cases, the winning democrat was a woman often with business
orientation or national security credentials
Not an aoc type figure at all
and
That they demonstrate and they won those seats by flipping republican votes and especially republican women votes
So do anti-trump republicans matter they change the house and they are probably the seats in the senate
If the democrats win in arizona if they win in north carolina
Uh, both of which are possible they're going to win by moving
anti-but republican-leaving leaning women away from
Trump's party to a non-trump party
And um
One of our viewers wants to
Have you take out your scary crystal ball in the case of a loss in november? Do you think trump will cede powers?
Yeah, um
There are there are a series of important moments between
um a voting day
And inauguration day remember inauguration day is in the constitution. There has to be an inaugural on the 20th of january of 2021
I have to inaugurate somebody
um
the
people vote
on the first tuesday in november, and then there's a period
between the vote and
Uh the day that the electoral college meets in the middle of december. That's a formal day
There's an event where people gather in washington dc. Um, they're overseen by they'll be overseen by vice president mike pence
and
that
Moment will produce a certified winner of the election once we have a certified winner
I think the club it's all over. I mean if trump loses at that has lost at that point on january 20 noon
January 20th 2021. He just ceases to be president. Um, and it doesn't matter what he said he may
If and if he doesn't leave the white house then we have a squatter problem, but he's not president anymore
Um and the guy with the nuclear football the nuclear football just walks away. He's not there
Uh this no one does the military don't return his calls and he's just not the president
And at that I assume at that point, you know
The white house ushers pack up his things and throw them out on the sidewalk
But it won't come to that the crucial the dangerous moment is the period from voting day to certification day
Where trump may if the election is close
It'll be the tr. Uh what we saw in florida with bushwick, but just
With so much worse will um so much more rage and so much more dirty practice. Um, so let's hope it's not
Close do you realize you just had a long thorough good rational answer about whether there will be a peace peaceful
transfer of power in america
Yeah, well look, this is the thing I have often written before
On inauguration day every year every time there's an inauguration people. Um,
The commentators say this is the astonishing thing about american life the people peaceful transition of power
I assure you on the day that they
Pick a new prime minister in denmark
No, dane self congratulates on the peaceful transition of power in denmark. No one says that um, yeah
When justin trudeau is in a lot of political trouble in canada right now
He's likely lose power at the next next election and you know off he'll go
And when he goes no one in canada will say this is the miracle of the peaceful
Obviously, of course, we're democracies, um, the thing the the thing that makes america
so, um
It makes these things
So tense is we all understand the pos how close how many times in american life the transition to power has not been
peaceful and not just
1861 but
1877 there was nearly violence then and there have been other moments, too
Um politics in america is a fraught business and this is a highly this is a country whose institutions magnify divisions
And is a country crammed with private arms. So of course we're worried about it
Um
Let me set you to healing
you have been
a presidential
speechwriter at extremely fraught moments
Somebody calls you up in december and says david I need the inaugural speech
What would you write?
For who?
Whoever wins if it is, not trump. Whoever we have it's true if if
A leader after trump. What is your speech today? Yeah, because if it's trump
I I don't want to say there's no fee, uh, because
I can think of some pretty big numbers, but you have to have boards you wanted to go there
Okay, I need the you know, I need like yeah new passport new identities for myself and my family
Give it. Let's go the other way. It's probably more productive for this conversation. Okay for a for president-elect biden, um
Uh
Biden it's going to be a very difficult problem because he is he is the candidate of two
biden won the democratic nomination because of
the support of two different groups as unlike each other as possible in america that he won both with the support of
um
Uh older african-americans who have really experienced in their own lifetimes the worst of american oppression
The violations of rights and the people who have the largest appetite for change
and the support of more affluent better educated suburban
Non-blacks, mostly white especially women the people in american life who are most satisfied with the status quo
and so he has to he will have to have a way of pivoting back and forth through the speech to meet the aspirations of
uh, the most discontented people in america who voted for him and also to reassure
The people who think there's nothing wrong with this country that getting rid of donald trump can't fix
and uh
and
the art of oratory
is being able to be present in both those moments to me and not in a glib way not you know, I I sometimes
Talk with a certain kind of politician where they talk and it's like, um certain kind of lawn sprinkler
Okay, not like
Talk this way talk that way, but actually to come up with a coherent message where you can situate. Um
The the need for certain changes to appeal to certain parts of the biden coalition with the deep anxiety
um that these it is these and I think that the message I think that you're reaching for is
These changes will make us more like ourselves. These are not changes to make us different
These are changes to make us more the way we think we are
and
oratory is
You state by
As if we're in the aftermath of something
We have been through something together and we are passing into something else right we have and we have to be different
but we have to um
Because there are things that are going to be different but we have to be but this is not a revolutionary experiment. Um and
uh
we and especially if
The aftermath of the election is as frightening as it could be and if we've lived through a period in which never mind
Even if donald trump accepts the defeat if he's pardoned a bunch of his criminal associates
if he's uh directed a whole bunch of money to his businesses at the last minute, I mean if he's behaved
Outrageously in the transition if he's pardoned himself, that's a possibility that he may try
um that we will we there may be all kinds of constitutional crises and
People will want to feel on that inauguration day. Not only hope and promise but also that
You can relax they call me sleepy joe for a reason you're going to be happy
You can sleep. It's not me who's going to be sleeping. It's you who's going to be sleeping. That's a problem for the american people
Yeah, turn down the noise machine yeah grown-ups back yeah, um
Another question from the audience. Do you think the republicans? Um will try hard to stop mail in voting?
Is this a real issue for the republicans?
I think it will be um, all kinds of voting shenanigans because uh, what the
I I think a lot of republicans
Will say you know
It's not the worst thing in the world
If donald trump loses a lot of republicans who could make their peace with that
The issue the election that is really going to frighten them is uh, what happens at this?
To state legislatures republicans between 2010 and 2020 enjoyed a control over state government
Unlike anything this country has seen since the republican hegemony of the 1920s
20 2020 is the census year 2021 is a redistricting year
the republican hold on states like wisconsin
On michigan on the le on the state legislature in michigan on north. Carolina even on georgia even in georgia
It depends to a great extent on the boundaries that are drawn if republicans have a bad 2020
Um and democrats do well in 2020 at the state level
Those boundaries through the 2020s for congress and state government may look very very different
That's I think the thing is going to be on people's on the minds of many republicans. So they're going to be as concerned about
Inhibiting about inhibiting voting at the state level as they are about saving donald trump
If they can hold on to the state governments, they might be willing to let him go
How long have you been in and around washington culture
I've lived in washington. Um since 1996
I've been involved in
political and active political discussion since I was a teenager, um
I knocked on doors for ronald reagan in 1980. Um, I was here in washington. I didn't yet live there on the night
that the republicans won their majority in 1994 and got to hang out with newt gingrich who was accompanied by
The mighty morphin power rangers in costume for some reason. I don't understand but there they were
Um, the reason I ask is there's a question from the audience that I find quite interesting the incentives for election to public office seem
to consist primarily of personal wealth and power
Do you think that's true and has it always felt that way for the people seeking the office has that become?
well first off do you accept the premise and has it become more so
I think it's comp. I think it's a very complicated question. Um
I think the subjective experience of most people in politics is that they do not feel powerful
and
um
the and while you can
acquire a certain amount of wealth, um in politics
It's not as much as you require through other
Activities, um, it takes a long time and uh, it it exposes you to risks that are much greater than you would have another
uh in other fields
Who became far richer just doing the corporate lawyer thing, right?
So I think people usually come to politics to spend more often come to politics to spend wealth than to acquire it. Um
But I I do think it is. It is the promise of wealth and power but I think
Look, I think there are a lot of people in politics for various forms of idealism
um and some forms
You might not recognize and people who go in to protect their vision of the second amendment are
Motivated by a spirit of idealism. It may not be
An ideal that you share but that it's real
Um, I think they think they can make people think they can make a difference. I think people are attracted by the promise of prominence
Um, I think many people are excited by the thrill of competition. It's it's um,
You know
Politics has sometimes been called. Um, uh, hope uh show business for homely people
But it might more accurately be called sports for uncoordinated people
Now, um, I want to pick up on something you just said about the second amendment because I think you've
Hit another really important theme in your book. I don't want to leave behind which is
the
Cognitive dissonance in the two parties and in people's minds in many cases where
You talk about uh, two parties in congress that can't really even agree on the same facts anymore
Yeah, and i'm sure many of our viewers right now are thinking well
Yes, that's true for the other people, but it's not true for me
Yeah, you know and similarly when you're talking about the environment you talk about. Um
Conservatives who fail to admit climate change is a problem
and
Liberals who feel that climate change is just a springboard to a sweeping
uh change across the world in how
economics works
Yeah, um
Is there any way and I think in what you say about healing and part of what you said about?
the speech biden has to give
is about a kind of
rise of empathy or a willingness to understand difference
In a way, we haven't been able to and in a way that elevated mr. Trump quite a bit
to simply
Deny, the cognitive basis of others. How do we get back? That's a very hard problem right now
I think a big first step toward getting back is to put an end to voter disenfranchisement
The way democracy normally works is in most countries you have coalitions
even in uh
sometimes two sometimes three sometimes four and but in america you always had two great coalitions and each was
trying to steal the votes from the other they had a base and then they were they were taking
I always think of it as like a game where you have marbles in a bag and you're always reaching into your opponent's bag
And trying to take some of your opponent's marbles
and
that required the
um
So long as we competed that way the parties had to be always
opportunistically on the lookout for issues that could move people from one side to another
It was never because you needed so much of the vote. It was never enough to just huddle in your little
Issue ghetto you had to find some way to reach across and uh just for
competitive purposes
what has happened in the 21st century and especially since um
The tea party, uh, the strike down of the voting rights act in 2013
The redistrictings of 2011 is that republicans have said our strategy is to win power by shrinking the electorate
So we don't have to worry about moving voters from the other side to our side
We just shrink the electorate enough until our voters. However few we have are sufficient to deliver us power
Once you take away the option of shrinking the electorate as your strategy
Once republicans, you know, we're doing pretty well here with 42 percent of the country. Um, but that's not going to be enough
Uh, we have to find some way to add another six seven eight nine ten eleven percent then suddenly
You realize that six seven eight nine ten eleven percent
It doesn't feel about guns the way our 42 percent does um, you know, we still have to honor our 42 percent
We can't, you know jettison them, but we have to modify them
Um we have in the same way that um democrats in the 1990s when bill clinton was trying to grow the democratic party
I just we can't just be a party of labor unions anymore. You know, we have to understand that
There's got to be a place for private sector people in the democratic party. Uh
You know on we have to find some ways to make entrepreneurs of certain, you know, socially, you know more liberal entrepreneurs
But still entrepreneurs feel comfortable. Um, the republicans will need to do that with
suburban women um with uh, you know, non-white business owners, um with different um,
you know with with uh gay and lesbian people, I mean that there's you know,
Why should you know?
What why do they belong in the democratic coalition once their particular set of issues is now sort of absorbed into the national consensus
um
and
That only becomes possible when the alternative of winning with 42 is closed off. So that's just not going to work
It is I mean for people who believe in free markets you might think
The idea of a huge number of customers you could win over should be attractive
But instead we have a more expedient culture than that
Similarly, it seems in the book you do call on
a level of
magnaminity and forgiveness
and understanding by the democratic side, which you haven't spoken to but
That would seem to be necessary for us to get back as well
um
I I
I'm speaking a little bit to many of my friends here
So I know how mad people are especially after the events of the past three or four days
And they get mad not just at the president and his grasping family and not just at the worst of the political enablers
The lindsey grahams and not even just the typical
Cowardly republican senator the tom tillis, but they get mad at like their next-door neighbor who uh shares things on facebook
and
You can get rid of trump and ivanka, and you can probably get rid of lindsey graham and maybe even tom tillis
But you're not getting rid of your neighbor. Your neighbor's not moving
and
Even if you close each other's facebook accounts
You still have to find some way to live in the same street the same town the same country at least
So how do we do that? Um and
We we have seen
Trump work so much by making people frightened of each other. We've seen that, you know, he's trying to persuade
people like the people probably watch this video that
Black looters and antifa are going to come to their neighborhoods and attack their houses and that's why we have to have a police presence
On the streets of washington, it looks like something out of romania under the chowcheskus
um because you're in danger and
Once we understand you're not in danger
And even that the terrible scenes of looting of stores which are done by organized criminals
the people who have the criminal know-how
uh to rob a store are not interested in your used ten-year-old tv they want a new tv
right
And they haven't been able to do crime for a couple of months. There's a lot of pent up demand on their side
They've all been humble. It's true
um, and that is a phenomenon well,
uh, I
would like to end on a uh
a positive note here and
What do you think?
Would be the best outcome if I had you back a year from now
Yeah, where would you like the world to be?
I'd like to see us
Um through the worst through the worst of the pandemic through the worst of the joblessness in a growing economy
Um i'd like to see us with a moderate program of political reform and some economic and social reform
um i'd like to see us with some optimism and mutual forgiveness, but above all
I hope we'll be able to look back on and say
You know, there are some gifts of donald trump that those of us who lived through this experience came out of it wiser
more compassionate more understanding people
um, uh
more
Intolerant of abuse of power more intolerant of corruption, but but more tolerant of people who think differently from ourselves
You know and recognizing finally that
American democracy was in many ways in bad shape before donald trump
He showed us
Vulnerabilities and fortunately, he turned out to be too greedy too corrupt too lazy and too emotional
Uh to be able to use all the opportunities he discovered
He showed us where we have to lock the doors where we have to seal the holes
Where we have to strengthen the fabric, so this can never happen to us again
And so we can be a better country
Because it was attempt to make us a work his failed attempt to make us a worse country
Than we were before he ever entered public life
you know, I was going to say something about um
Education, but you're really speaking about attending to the angels of our better nature
Yeah
Well i'm going to read the inaugural, which would do me well
Right. Well, I I end the book by quoting. Um, a less famous speech of abraham
Lincoln's um, which I don't have quite by heart, but it was the night
He won re-election in 1864 where um and a group came to serenade him at the white house and you would think having won
Re-election in icd-4, you would give yourself a pat on the back and say not lincoln. Um,
he said
He went turned self-critical and philosophical he said in any future national trial
We shall find that human nature has not changed and we also find that the people of that time like the people of this
Will have wise and foolish
Good and bad, um brave brave and silly
And so therefore let us understand. Let us learn from the incidents of our times and look at them not as wrongs to be
Avenged but as philosophy to learn
You came really close that was good
On that hopeful note our thanks to david frum senior editor of the atlantic and author of the new book
Trump apocalypse for joining us today. We'd also like to thank our audience for watching and participating live. Thank you for the excellent questions
If you'd like to watch more programs or support the commonwealth club's efforts to make our virtual programming a success, please visit commonwealthclub.org
Online i'm quentin hardy. Thank you and stay safe everyone. Thank you. David. Thank you quinn
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