Actually, maybe I can do like a
one-minute on why I would invest in
SpaceX. So I think okay, $34
billion dollars - why do I want to buy
SpaceX stock at $34, let's call
it $40 billion dollars - because they're
doing 2 to 3 billion in launch
revenue now. That's paying all their
expenses, letting them develop a crazy
amount of technology. That's awesome but
I think they've de-risked a huge piece of
their business model. They've proven they
can relaunch rockets so I think this is
one of the most important technological
breakthroughs that like, has ever
happened. People don't know about it.
The news isn't reporting on it but it's
a critical building block of why we're
gonna be able to go to space - rockets are
reusable. Now, this is the technology. The
financials today are a lagging indicator
of the monetization potential of this
technology. StarLink is a perfect example
of that because now that you've
decreased that cost of that launch
technology, you can start launching up
other things. Now all of a sudden we have
a whole new multi 100 billion dollar
potential internet business that got
spun out of nowhere. Even the financials
only show $2 to $3 billion dollars
in launch revenue. And so I think SpaceX
- it's not really investing in the
business today, you're investing in the
technology they're developing and how
that can be monetized for the future and
I see decades and decades of runway of
honestly, unlimited runway of humans
continually expanding into space,
continuing expanding the market for this
new railroad infrastructure. And so, when
I think about what SpaceX is building,
the biggest companies which started
America, when we were exploring
historically. were all railroads. The
second you build that pipeline it just
unlocked an explosion of new commerce
and entrepreneurship which is like, so
good for society. You know, my motto of
investing the future you believe in - like
I just believe in this so hard. I think
this is exactly what we need to be doing
as humans so I'm so on board with that
and I just think that we want to set up
a colony of millions of people on Mars.
Like, that's gonna require billions of
dollars, tens of billions of dollars of
launches and that's all gonna go to
SpaceX, the company. So I think in that
way, they could make money there but I
think StarLink justifies the valuation
of 100 or 200 billion if they actually
do have a global internet service that
works, it's five or 10 times faster. I
mean, this is a super risky company. It's
rocket investing so I'm looking at this
as like venture capital style investing in
SpaceX. There's a huge chance that it goes
to zero which would be extremely sad but
I think as an investor, you want to put
that cap on. Like of course SpaceX could
fail but just as an exciting potential,
do I see 10 times upside from $40 billion
in the super long term? Totally. And so
that's why financially I get so excited
about this. And it's just like Tesla.
Like, you're investing,
you know - the battery technology that
they have, the autonomous driving
technology they have. Sure, they're
making a billion cash flow this year -
doing great. They're growing but I think
those are super lagging indicators of
the actual monetizable value and just
the true intrinsic value of the
technology they've developed. The exact
same thing is for SpaceX. You're
investing in the smartest engineer and
inventor of our time with the smartest
multi-thousand person team of engineers
in the world. All working together to get
this done. Tying back to why they
need to provide liquidity and do this to
get their smartest engineers liquidity
on their stock, which is going to make
them even more pumped and allow them to tell
their friends about it, get even smarter
engineers, continue to get that ball
rolling. But yeah it's really just - it
would be a tragedy if like we all watch
this amazing technology get
commercialized and never have access to it.
That's that's my two cents.
