The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential
election in November has a significant impact
on the Korean Peninsula. For South Korea,
which is sandwiched between powerful countries
such as China, Russia, and Japan, the U.S.
policy on North Korea and foreign affairs,
which will depend on who wins the election
between U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden,
is more important than anything else. This
week Korea Now will look into the impact of
the U.S. presidential election on the Korean
Peninsula.
If Trump succeeds in re-election, he is expected
to further enhance his "America First" policy,
which had been driven regardless of any alliance.
As a result, pressure on South Korea to increase
its share of defense costs is expected to
continue. Trump's recent emphasis on the return
of U.S. troops stationed overseas and the
fair cost-sharing of the alliance also adds
weight to this outlook. Some even cite the
possibility of a reduction or withdrawal of
U.S. troops from Korea. Meanwhile, it is highly
likely that the "top-down" approach to North
Korea, which is based on his personal ties
with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, will
be maintained for now. Trump also insists
his relationship with Kim was what had prevented
what he claimed to be an imminent war under
former President Barack Obama.
On the other hand, if former Vice President
Joe Biden is elected, he is likely to return
to his Obama-style "strategic patience" on
North Korea. Strategic patience is a strategy
that waits until North Korea succumbs while
continuing military and economic pressure.
Trump's top-down diplomacy between the leaders
of North Korea and the U.S. is expected to
be avoided. Upon taking office, Biden is also
expected to restore the U.S.-South Korea alliance,
which had been undermined by Trump’s America
First policy. In fact, Biden said in his recent
nomination acceptance speech, "I'll be a president
who stands with our allies and friends, and
make it clear to our adversaries that days
of cozying up to dictators is over." Biden
has been firmly opposed to the withdrawal
of U.S. troops from South Korea.
At the moment, Biden leads Trump in various
polls. However, many analysts say that it
is difficult to predict the outcome easily
under the current circumstances. This is because
Trump's approval rating has been on the rise
recently. Some even predict that the "Hillary's
Nightmare" in 2016 could be repeated. What
are your thoughts on this? Please let me know
in the comments below and thank you for watching
Korea Now.
