>>Malcom Gladwell: It's a real pleasure to
be here.
I was -- I'm acutely conscious to the fact
as I listened both to our previous speaker
and also the ones before that everyone has
been speaking about very consequential and
high-minded things this morning, and I'm not
going to do that at all.
In fact, I intend to give what I am sure will
be the most solipsistic talk ever at a Google
Zeitgeist.
I simply want to talk about why on earth I
decided to say yes and come here.
Here's the situation.
I'm a writer.
Part of what I do to make my living is I go
and give speeches at conferences like this.
And I get paid, right, as one would, and it's
that money that I use to make my living.
So how much is Google paying me for this?
Zero.
It is a company with, what, $50 billion in
the bank, and they don't have a dime for poor
little old Malcolm.
Now, we could talk at length about what this
says about Google, but that's not what interests
me.
What interests me is what that says about
me.
Why on earth would I say yes under such a
circumstance?
Why -- you know, I'm busy.
My time is really valuable.
Why did I fly all the way out here, across
the country, to give away my intellectual
property for free?
In fact, it wasn't even free.
I had to print out my speech this morning
in the business center.
And -- this is the bill -- it cost me $9.87.
It is costing me to be here.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: Now, you can say that I
came here because there is all kinds of interesting
people here, which is true.
I don't mean to cast any aspersions on any
of you, but my life is lousy with interesting
people.
I got more interesting people than I know
what to -- So you could say maybe I should
have come here -- I should come here because
I can make contacts that will help me, you
know, in the business world.
I'm not in the business world.
I don't need to meet a V.C.
I work out of my apartment.
If I want to renovate my kitchen, I will just
go to the bank for a loan.
There's no -- it doesn't make any sense, in
other words, for me to be here.
So why did I say yes?
Well, the answer is that this conference is
run by Google, one of the most prestigious
and successful companies in the world.
I would not have agreed to speak for free
at a Yahoo! conference, would I?
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: In other words, my decision
to do something that is not in my best interest
was caused by my association with an elite
institution.
And this is what I want to talk about today.
It is an argument that I make in my new book,
"David and Goliath," which in further proof
of how baffling my decision was to come here
is not available for sale at this conference.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: I like to call this problem
elite institution cognitive disorder, or EICD.
And it is simply that elite institutions screw
us up in all kinds of ways that we're not
always conscious of.
And since the theme of this morning's session
is "Imagine a Better World," I want to try
and imagine what the world would look like
if we freed ourself of the scourge of EICD.
So I am going to give you a couple of examples
of EICD in action.
Let me start with the very thorny question
of science and math education in this country.
STEM as we call it.
We have a problem in turning out enough science
and math graduates, right, in this country.
And it is not for lack of interest, by the
way, among high school seniors.
Lots and lots and lots of high school seniors
want to get science and math degrees, but
approximately half of them drop out by the
end of their second year.
So we have a persistence problem in science
and math education in this country.
So the question is why?
Why do so many kids drop out?
Well, the obvious answer is that science and
math are really hard and you need to have
a certain level of cognitive ability to master
those subjects and we don't have enough smart
kids, right?
So if that's true, if science and math education
is a function of -- we should be able to see
in the statistics that persistence is a function
of your cognitive ability.
So let's take a look.
By the way, this is the first time in my life
I have ever used PowerPoint.
This is like a fantastic moment for me.
I feel like I have finally joined the 20th
century.
It is really kind of amazing.
Oh, wow.
Okay.
So this is -- I've just chosen Hartwick College
as a proxy for American colleges for totally
random colleges.
Hartwick is a small liberal arts college in
upstate New York.
What we have a distribution of math S.A.T.
scores by -- among the people who are intending
to major in science and math.
What you can see is that there is quite a
wide range of native math ability among the
kids entering the freshmen STEM programs at
Hartwick, right?
So what do we see when we look at the -- who
ends up graduating with a STEM degree?
What we see is that at Hartwick College, the
kids in the top third, the top third S.A.T.
scores, end up getting well over half of the
STEM degrees and the kids with the bottom
scores end up getting very few of the STEM
degrees.
Those kids over there are dropping out like
flies.
This would seem to suggest that our original
hypothesis that persistence is a function
of cognitive ability is true.
And this would also -- we can also go further.
We can say if this hypothesis is true, as
we go to more and more selective institutions,
we should see a very different pattern of
persistence.
We should see less kids dropping out because
the kids are all smarter, right?
So let's go to Harvard.
These numbers are a few years old.
But at Harvard, you can see that the bottom
third of math S.A.T. scores among kids doing
science and math are equal to the top third
at Hartwick.
The dumb students at Harvard are as smart
as the smart students at Hartwick.
So you would think everybody at Harvard should
be getting a math and science degree, right?
Why would they drop out?
Everyone is so smart.
What do we see?
Oh, dear.
What we see is the exact same pattern at Harvard
that we saw at Hartwick.
The smart kids -- the top kids are getting
all the degrees.
The kids at the bottom aren't getting any
degrees.
They are dropping out like flies, right?
Even though these kids are brilliant.
Right?
So what's happening?
Well, clearly what we're seeing here is that
persistence in science and math is not simply
a function of your cognitive ability.
It's a function of your relative standing
in your class.
It is a function of your class rank, right?
Those kids who are really, really brilliant
don't get their math degree not because -- not
as a function of their IQ but as a function
of where they are in their class.
And, by the way, if you look at any college
you want, you will always see, regardless
of the level of cognitive ability among the
students, you will always see the same pattern.
The kids who get the science and math degrees
are the ones in the top of their class.
And the kids in the bottom of their class
never do.
Look over at that bottom third -- the bottom
third chart over there.
So the name given for this phenomenon amongst
psychologists is relative deprivation theory.
And it describes this exceedingly robust phenomenon
which says that as human beings we do not
form our self-assessments based on our standing
in the world.
We form our self-assessments based on our
standing in the -- in our immediate circle,
on those in the same boat as ourselves, right?
So a classic example of relative deprivation
theory is which kind of country -- which countries
have the highest suicide rates?
Happy countries or unhappy countries?
And the answer is happy countries.
If you are morbidly depressed in a country
where everyone else is really unhappy, you
don't feel that unhappy.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: Right?
You are not comparing yourself to the universe
-- the whole universe of people out there.
No.
You are comparing yourself to your neighbors
and the kids at school and they are unhappy,
too, so you are sort of fine.
But if you are morbidly depressed in a country
where everyone is jumping up and down for
joy, you are really depressed, right?
That is a very, very, very profoundly serious
place to be and so as a result, you get that
sad outcome more often.
So what's happening at Harvard then?
The kid in the bottom third of his class at
Harvard does not say rationally: I'm in the
99.99th percentile of all students in the
world when it comes to native math ability,
even though that's true.
What that kid says is: That kid over there,
Johnny over there, is getting all the answers
right and I'm not.
I feel like I'm really stupid and I can't
handle math so I will drop out, get a fine
arts degree, move to Brooklyn, work, make
$15,000 a year and break my parents' heart,
right?
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: So what is the implication
of this?
The implication of this is that if you want
to get a science and math degree, don't go
to Harvard, right?
In fact, we can run the numbers on this.
Mitchell Chang at UCLA recently did the numbers
and he says as a rule of thumb, your odds
of graduating -- successfully getting a science
and math degree fall by two percentage points
for every ten-point increase in the average
S.A.T. score of your peers.
So if you are a kid and you have a choice
between -- if you get into Harvard and University
of Maryland is your safety, University of
Maryland has 150 -- on average S.A.T. scores
are 150 points lower at Maryland.
That means your chance of graduating with
a STEM degree from Maryland is 30% higher
than it would be at Harvard.
Right?
Now -- so if you choose to go to Harvard and
not Maryland, you are taking an enormous gamble.
You are essentially saying this STEM degree
-- by the way, the most valuable commodity
any college graduate could have in today's
economy, I am going to take a 30% gamble in
my chances of getting that degree just so
I can put Harvard on my resume'.
Is that worth it?
I don't think so.
Right?
But how many kids given a choice between Harvard
and Maryland choose Maryland?
Not that many.
Why?
EICD.
Now, why does EICD persist if it is so plainly
irrational?
Well, I think it is because as human beings,
we dramatically underestimate the costs of
being at the bottom of a hierarchy.
Let me give you another really remarkable
example of this.
This is from a paper that was -- just came
out from a guy named -- two economists John
Connelly and Allie Sundy -- Allie Under, rather.
They looked at graduates of Ph.D. programs,
economics Ph.D. programs at American universities.
And what they were interested in was what
is the publication record of these graduates
in the six years after they took an academic
position?
So as you know, the principal way by which
we evaluate economists is how often and how
well do they publish.
So what these guys did is they did a little
algorithm, took the top economics journals,
and rated them according to their level of
prestige, and came up with a number of how
many -- your score after six years of graduation.
So we get this chart here.
What you can see, first of all, look at the
99th percentile.
So what this says is, the kids who are in
the 99th percentile of their Ph.D. program
at Harvard, M.I.T., Yale, Princeton, Columbia,
Stanford, Chicago, the 99th percentile, that's
what they publish.
The Harvard students publish 4.31 journal
articles in their first six years after graduation.
That's amazing.
Right?
Astounding number.
Same with M.I.T., 4.73.
All the way down the list.
What we see here is that the best students
at the very best schools are extraordinary,
and that comes as no surprise.
You just saw Larry Summers here.
I don't know where he went.
Larry Summers, that's Larry Summers, right?
Brilliant.
Genius.
We knew that.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: Let's look at the 85th
percentile.
Now, the 85th percentile at these schools,
these are schools that might take two dozen
Ph.D. students every year.
So if you're in the 85th percentile in the
M.I.T. economics program, you're the fifth
or sixth best student in your class.
That's really smart, okay?
The 85th percent student at M.I.T -- or at
Harvard, let's do Harvard, publishes basically
one paper in their first six years versus
4.31 in the top student.
So the gap between one and five is enormous,
right?
It is 5X.
Now, let's go down to the 55th percentile
at Harvard.
So the 55th percentile at Harvard is the -- let's
say, the 12th best person at the greatest
economics program in the world.
They could arguably say they are one of the
20-top Ph.D. economic students in the world,
right?
Look what their publication rate, .07.
Basically, they're not publishing at all.
By any standard by which we judge academic
economists, these people are complete failures,
right?
Now, I've picked lousy schools.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: And I've started with Toronto,
which is where I went to school.
So this is a little masochistic moment where
I basically confess to how paltry my academic
pedigree is.
I have also picked B.U. and then I have also
picked -- non-top 30 is simply all the schools
that are so terrible I can't bring myself
to name them.
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: We've aggregated them all
so these are schools that if your child -- anyone
in this room, if your child said they were
going to go to one of these schools, you would
weep, okay?
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: What do we see here?
What we see here is that the 99th percentile
at these lousy schools publish more than everyone
at the top schools except for the 99th percentile,
right?
Do you see that?
Look at Toronto, 3.13.
The only people who publish more than the
top student at Toronto are the top students
at those top seven schools.
The top student at Boston is publishing three
times more than the 80th percentile student
at Harvard.
What does this tell us?
Well, it tells us that -- oh, before I get
there.
The guys that did the study, having done the
study, were so stunned at what they were seeing
that they end their article with this whole
thing about what on earth is going on with
Harvard?
Here's a school which is collecting the most
brilliant, the most accomplished, probably
the best-looking graduate students in economics
--
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: I can't imagine the bar
is that high; but, nonetheless, it presumably
is a selection criteria.
They gather them all together and, yet, everyone
except for the very, very best students is
basically a flop.
And they say, I'm quoting them, why is it
that the majority of these successful applicants
who are winners and did all the right things
up to the time they applied to graduate school
became so unimpressive after they are trained?
Are we -- and this moment of genuine distress
on the part of these two economists: Are we
failing the students or are they failing us?
Right?
No one's failing anyone!
What you're just seeing is relative deprivation
in action, right?
When it comes to confidence and motivation
and self-efficacy, the things that really
matter when it comes to making your way in
the world, relative position matters more
than absolute position.
The 80th percentile student at Harvard looks
at those kids who are smarter than him and
says, "I can't do it."
The number one student at Missouri says, "Wow,
I'm lord of the manor.
I'm going to go out and conquer the world,"
right?
What does it mean?
Well, what it means, first of all, when it
comes to hiring, it means you should hire
on the basis of class rank.
And you should be completely indifferent to
the institution attended by the applicant.
In fact, we should have a don't ask, don't
tell policy for the name of your undergraduate
institution.
It's hurting us to know that.
Doesn't help us.
And when you hear some institution, some fabulous
Wall Street investment bank, some university
say, "We only hire from the top schools,"
you should say, "You moron!"
[ Laughter ]
>>Malcom Gladwell: That's what -- that's -- that's
the previous slide.
I don't know how to go backwards on slides.
No, you don't want to hire from only the best
schools.
You want to hire from the top students from
any school under the sun.
And it also means that when it comes -- if
you have kids going to college, when it comes
to choosing your undergraduate institution,
you should never go to the best institution
you get into, never.
Go to your second or your third choice.
Go to the place where you're guaranteed to
be in the top part of your class.
So why don't we do that?
Well, why did I come here when it was profoundly
in my self-interest not to, right?
Because when we have an opportunity to join
elite institutions, we are so enormously flattered
and pleased with ourselves that we do things
that are irrational.
Thank you.
[ Applause ]
