the markets are in turmoil everything is
shifting
and if you're not paying attention
you're gonna get wiped out
this is about the greatest bubble and
for those of you with a 401k
or hoping for retirement or planning on
uh playing golf for the rest of your
life you better pay attention
because i think and a lot of other
people think and our guests think
the biggest stock market crash
is on us now
when you look at demographics you can
see the future
so right now when you look at the future
the baby boomers are old guys
you know they've had these thou you know
they're the first generation i think to
have a 401k
because we came off what's called the
fine benefit pension plan
and went to a defined contribution which
is the 401k or ira or
steps so the baby boom is for the first
generation
to be hanging with their butt out in the
air right now
and if the market crashes they're gone
so the baby boomers you're screwed
listen to this program now and if you're
the kid or child or grandkid
of a baby boomer you better listen up
too because you don't want grandpa and
grandma moving in with you when they get
wiped out in this next crash
greater the bubble greater the burst
that's that's that's my number one
statement
from everything i've studied in
demographics and cycles
the greater the bubble the greater the
burst
when things go good people just think
oh it's okay it's not okay for you to be
sitting in your house going up
20 25 a year and the stock market going
up 20 30
a year while you do nothing that is
something for nothing that's what's
called a bubble so
we're in this bubble and the the key
thing
i have been looking now for two years
for the nasdaq the leading stock
bubble to get up above 11 000
that's what that that's that was my
target for the bubble to peak
and it has done that it has done that
more than that
and and it's it's been hitting that in
recent weeks
and of course at the same time i'm
looking for this
stan harley who is the best short-term
forecaster in markets says the same
thing like mid-august
is looking like a peak so i i think
people really need to wake up here
i know it's hard because the bubble
keeps going up and
it seems like it can do no wrong no
this bubble is peaking here for the
stocks to be going to new highs
in the greatest depression downturn with
the covet 19
in history okay wake up this is an alarm
get the hell out of the stock market
i've had the pleasure of i'm glad you
invited stan because
i have a tremendous respect for other
pilots and he flew the f4 f-14
and f-18 and i was a helicopter pilot so
we're kind of different breed of cat but
anyway we kind of see the world from the
same point of view
and i don't know if stan's ever crashed
but i've crashed three times
and so for those of you 401k it doesn't
feel good
the rush going down when you go you go
down
a lot faster then it comes up
unemployment reached about 3.4 percent
going from memory here but i believe it
hit a level of 3.4 which is
very low historically in the post-world
war ii era
um that occurred in february of this
year so
historically if we had five to seven
months to that february level that would
suggest
about now for a stock market peak plus a
minus
we we have a cycle that averages just
under
seven years and i know harry is familiar
with this as well i'm talking about it's
82 months
82.2 from a regression analysis
you call it seven years the market has a
propensity to make significant troughs
about every seven years robert the last
one occurred in
february of 2016. seven years prior to
that
march of 09 seven years prior to that
october of o2 and so on uh
going forward in time the analysis
points to
december 2022 for the next low in that
cycle and the standard deviation on
that's about four months
so we should be looking to the latter
part of december 2022
early part of 2023 for the next trough
in that seven year cycle
of course before you make a low you have
to make a high and the highs in that
cycle tend to occur
between two and three years prior to the
low
so back of the envelope math if we're
going to make a low in december 2022
back it up two to three years let's use
two and a half as
an easy average that points to right now
there's a bigger cycle which um stan and
i both agree on this is
rare for a short-term guy like stan
might and me to be
looking at a 90-year cycle if you look
at the stock market
since the stock exchanges were
established in the late
1700s back 250 years okay
the greatest cycle evident in the stock
market is
every 90 years you get a super bubble
peak like 1837
then the crash in the 1842 and then 1929
to 32
and now i was calling for late 2019
to late 2022 exactly what stan is saying
and for the bottom
this is the biggest cycle we will see in
our lifetimes
i've been saying this for decades
you have been you have been you've been
having warning you've warned a lot of
people about the 90-year cycle
so that's today this is not just a peak
in the stock market
it's the greatest peak of your lifetime
and the greatest crash i think we are
very close to rolling over here and
heading south
so here we are all right you guys you
guys
are watching these waves or cycles and
harry's been warning about this one for
a long time the 90-year cycle
so it was 1929 let's call it 19
30 19 90 years is 2020.
and so ladies and gentlemen the question
is how big
and what should we do
do
you
