LIVE IN
    FIRST ALERT CHIEF
METEOROLOGIST TOM
MESSENER...IS IN THE
PLATTSBURGH WEATHER
CENTER
    TOM IT'S STARTING TO FEEL
LIKE FALL OUT THERE WITH
THESE COOL MORNINGS.
    IS THAT GOING TO LAST?
 
 
 
 
------------------
GENERALLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WE
ARE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.
SOME SUBTLE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL
ENCOURAGE ISOLATED
SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND
DRIFTING JUST EAST OF
THERE. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
HAVE A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
THAT WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT
PREVAILING
WEST WIND, INCREASING AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
PUSH INTO THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO
BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE
NIGHT WITH STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES,
WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY
SUPPORTS UP TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN BY
DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY A
YOU GO SOUTH AND
WEST AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE
WITH PACIFIC OCEAN
ORIGINS WILL USHER IN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION
DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN
AND WE
WILL SEE THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH STEEPEN.
THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF OVER 12
KFT, PWATS APPROACHING
1.5" TO
1.75" AND A LOW LEVEL JET
ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS, WE
EXPECT TO SEE
SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE ONE
ASPECT TO THE FORECAST THAT
IS CURRENTLY GIVING US
TROUBLE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB
SATURATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
YIELDS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY WHILE THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND
BRINGS IN AROUND 500 J/KG OF
CAPE. BASED ON THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION IN OUR
OPINION.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, WE
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 1" AND
1.5" TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME
LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2
INCHES.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE DON'T
EXPECT ANY AREAL OR RIVER
FLOODING AT THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST 3 OR SO
MONTHS, WE COULD USE THIS
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, THE
RAINFALL RATES DON'T LOOK
TO BE EXTREME AS THIS 1" TO
1.5" OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED T
FALL OVER A 9-12 HOUR
WINDOW. HOWEVER, AREAS
IN WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY
WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED EARLIER
THIS WEEK MAY NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE GROUND
LIKELY CANNOT
HANDLE AS MUCH RAINFALL AS
OTHER LOCATIONS. RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS T
