Hardline forces in Iran have
succeeded at the ballot box
for the first time
in seven years,
partly by capitalising on Donald
Trump's hostility and maximum
pressure strategy.
The parliamentary
elections weaken
president Hassan Rouhani, who
is in his second and final term.
And it further crushes
reformers' hopes
that the country could open
up to the outside world.
It also sets the tone for
presidential elections
next year, with
analysts predicting
another hardline victory.
But a low turnout also
reflects the disillusionment
many Iranians feel
towards their leaders
across the political spectrum.
At this polling
station in Tehran
people turned out
in decent numbers.
But at others there
was just a trickle.
I met one 25-year old who
voted for Rouhani in 2017.
Back then, he hoped
the nuclear deal
Iran signed with world
powers would usher
in a new period of prosperity.
Now, he says he was brainwashed.
He didn't vote this time, saying
all politicians are the same.
Such grim emotions are common in
a country of 80m people facing
increasing economic hardship.
Trump's sanctions have strangled
the government's ability
to export oil and pushed the
country into a deep recession.
The Iranian regime must abandon
its pursuit of nuclear weapons,
stop spreading terror,
death, and destruction,
and start working for the
good of its own people.
Mr Rouhani said in December that
Iran had lost more than $200bn
in revenue and investment
as a result of Mr Trump's
maximum pressure strategy.
Prices soared as inflation
rocket up to about 40 per cent.
And the Iranian rial lost
more than half its value
over the past two years.
The government is struggling
for foreign currency, cut off
from the global banking network.
But shops are
still well stocked.
Years of isolation
in four decades,
since the 1979
Islamic Revolution,
forced the republic to
develop a diversified economy.
Iranian companies produce
much of the country's food,
pharmaceuticals, steel,
and cement needs.
And some factories manufacturing
household appliances
and textiles are expanding.
This is all part of the
government being forced to push
import substitution policies.
The car industry, which employs
more than 500,000 people,
is a prime example.
After Peugeot and Renault
pulled out of joint ventures
in the country because
of US sanctions,
the government is desperate
for local production
to fill the gap
and for the sector
to remain an important
part of the economy.
And here at the
Iran Khodro facility
where the company is
ramping up production.
In September, it was
producing just 900 cars a day.
But now it's 2,000,
and the company
plans to go to more than 2,500
or about 2,500 in a few months.
The reason for the increase
is partly due to government
support, help from the
Ministry of Defence,
which is helping produce some
of the more technical components
you need to produce
these cars, and also
because of the localisation
of spare parts.
Before, the company was
relying more on imports.
Now, it's relying more
on local production
because of sanctions.
It's an example of how
Iranian companies are trying
to get around the US
regime of maximum pressure
to ensure they maintain output.
But this cannot mask the
intense pressure on the economy.
Iran's oil exports are vital
for foreign currency earnings.
Analysts estimate they've
plummeted to a few 100,000
barrels a day because
of US sanctions.
The IMF forecasts
zero growth this year.
Most foreign companies
have pulled out.
Virtually no western
bank will do business
with an Iranian entity.
And that's despite the fact
that most of the world,
including European
and Asian governments,
oppose Mr Trump's decision to
pull out of the nuclear deal
and impose sanctions.
Iranian businessmen
are forced to import
goods using trans-shipment hubs
in Iraq, Turkey, the United
Arab Emirates, and
Afghanistan, as they struggle
to keep their companies going.
Iran's crisis began in May
2018, when Mr Trump unilaterally
withdrew the US from the
nuclear deal, which Iran
had signed three years earlier.
Under the accord,
Tehran had agreed
to limit its nuclear
activity in return
for the lifting of
many western sanctions.
Iranians were beginning to feel
the benefits as the republic's
oil exports soared.
Western companies, including
Peugeot and Renault,
returned, keen to tap
into the country's
vast natural resources
and large consumer
market with a youthful
aspirant population.
But after pulling out
of the nuclear deal,
Washington imposed wave
after wave of sanctions,
and Iran responded by
increasing its nuclear activity.
The US blamed Tehran
for a September attack
that struck at the heart of
Saudi Arabia's oil industry.
As well as sabotage
attacks on tankers
in the Gulf in May and June.
The US and Iran came to
the brink of full-blown war
in January, after Mr Trump
authorised the assassination
of General Kassim
Soleimani, Iran's most
powerful and revered commander.
Iran retaliated by firing
more than a dozen missiles
at Iraqi military bases
hosting US troops.
Iranian officials appear
resigned to the fact
that Mr Trump could now secure
another four years at the White
House.
A few days ago we took
bold and decisive action.
Brigardier-General Hossein
Dehghan, a military adviser
to Ayatollah Ali Khomeini,
Iran's supreme leader,
told me that Iran
did not want war.
But he said Tehran continues to
support its regional proxies,
and to develop its
ballistic missile programme.
The result is that
the economic pressures
on all ordinary Iranians
is only likely to increase.
Tensions will remain high
throughout the region,
the lingering fear
that they could erupt.
Hardliners will be in the
ascendancy at the centre
of the Islamic Republic's
power structures.
Public disgruntlement has
exploded onto the streets
in recent months.
In November, several
hundred people
were killed as security
forces put down
protests triggered by
massive hikes to fuel prices.
Anti-regime protests
erupted again in January,
after the government admitted
mistakenly shooting down
a Ukrainian airliner killing
all 176 people on board.
The January protests
were notable
for the brazen verbal attacks
against the elite Revolutionary
Guards and the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
Perhaps the biggest challenge
facing Iran's leaders
is managing the country's
depleted resources
while maintaining
social stability.
