JUDY WOODRUFF: As we have heard, today's jobs
report fills in a picture of devastating unemployment
nationwide not seen since the Great Depression.
Let's look at its findings and the challenges
of getting the economy up and running again.
Neel Kashkari is the president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He was assistant
secretary of the Treasury in 2008 and 2009,
where he oversaw a major part of the government's
efforts to stabilize the system during the
2008 financial crisis at that time.
Neel Kashkari, welcome to the "NewsHour."
What words can you use to describe what's
going on right now with our economy and what's
happened to people's livelihoods?
NEEL KASHKARI, President, Federal Reserve
Bank of Minneapolis: Well, it's devastating,
just as you said.
The official unemployment rate is about 14.7
percent, but if you dig below the numbers,
I think it's really around 22 percent or 23
percent, when you consider the tens of millions
who have lost their jobs.
And by the way, that data is now a couple
weeks' old. It's probably even higher than
that. A couple months ago, I was optimistic,
I was hopeful that maybe we'd have a V-shaped
recovery, shut things down, clamp down on
the virus, and then have a quick recovery.
What we have learned in the last couple months
is that the virus is continuing to spread.
Tragically, many people are getting it and
other people are dying. I think we're in for,
unfortunately, a slow, long recovery, rather
than an immediate bounce-back.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, I want to ask you why
you believe that, because, just this morning,
we heard President Trump say -- and I'm quoting
-- "Those jobs will all be back. They will
be back very soon, and, next year, we're going
to have a phenomenal year."
NEEL KASHKARI: Well, as your -- Governor Cuomo
mentioned in your reporting, that we look
around the world, and in other countries where
the virus is still spreading, when they relax
the controls, they relax the social distancing,
it tends to flare back up again.
Remember, this virus came to America when
one person had it, and we didn't know it,
and it ended up spreading through society.
So it can spread again.
When we study past pandemics around the world
and here at home, if you look at the flu pandemic
of 1918, it came in the spring. It created
a lot of havoc in the spring, and then it
went quiet over the summer. People thought
the worst was behind us, and then it flared
back up again, and the devastating damage
was done in the fall.
Obviously, we have to avoid that. We know
the end point of this is a vaccine or a therapy.
But the health experts say that's probably
a year or two away. So we have to learn how
to live with this virus, reopen in a smart
manner, while preserving health and safety.
But that means a muted, a more gradual recovery.
JUDY WOODRUFF: I read one economist said today
there is no safe place in the job market today,
no place that's safe from job cuts.
Do you think that's correct?
NEEL KASHKARI: I think that's correct.
But we know that these -- unfortunately, what's
so tragic about this crisis is, it's disproportionately
falling on service workers, lower-income,
lower-wage and lower-skilled service worker.
So women are being affected more than men
with the jobs cuts. Minorities are being affected
and the less educated are being more affected.
So the people who can least afford to have
them incomes get hammered are the ones who
are disproportionately being affected by this.
And that's what's tragic about this.
And the good news is, Congress is acting very
aggressively. The Federal Reserve is acting
very aggressively. I think the U.S. government
is fully going to stand behind our economy.
But, unfortunately, there's nothing they can
really do to speed this up. It's going to
take time.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And I want to ask you about
that.
But, just quickly, when you talk about the
unfairness of how this is hitting people at
the lower end of the economic scale, does
that mean it's going to be harder to come
out of this?
NEEL KASHKARI: It is.
In many cases, those workers were the last
ones to recover from the 2008 crisis. So we
were just -- after 10 years, we were just
beginning to finally rebuild our labor market
and put all Americans back to work. And the
lower-income workers were finally starting
to see wage gains. And here comes this virus
and just targets them, frankly, and hammers
them.
And that's what's so unfortunate about this
and why we really have to do everything we
can to get them the assistance that they need,
until the health care system can catch up
and get control of the virus.
Ultimately, solving the virus is what's going
to solve our economy.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And that's what I want to ask
you about, Neel Kashkari.
What is it going to take? I mean, how much
more money is it going to require the federal
government to provide for the American people
for them to get through this?
NEEL KASHKARI: Well, I -- first of all, we
have to spend whatever it takes to support
vaccine development and therapy development
and widespread testing.
Any dollar we spend there is going to more
than pay for itself in needing less money
to support the economy. So, that's the first
part.
The second part is, I think we need to start
reopening businesses where you can actually
socially distance, where you can wear masks.
Some businesses lend themselves to that. Other
businesses, like a movie theater, simply don't.
And then I think we start to focus the economic
assistance on those workers and those folks
that need to socially isolate indefinitely.
But we know that younger workers are at lower
risk than older workers and those with preexisting
conditions.
I think, if we start to shift towards targeting
the assistance to those who are most vulnerable,
I think we will be able to get into a place
where we can sustain this for a year or two,
because we're going to need to be able to
sustain it for a year or two.
JUDY WOODRUFF: But are you saying the government
basically has -- the government's pockets
are full -- are empty -- or don't have a bottom,
in so many words, so that the government can
do what's necessary for people who are going
to have no income or very little income for
a long time to come?
NEEL KASHKARI: I think our chairman of the
Federal Reserve talked about the great fiscal
power of the United States of America. I think
that's right.
I think the government has the resources to
support the economy through this period and
to get through it. And the more we can focus
it on those who need the most assistance,
the longer we will be able to do it. But then,
of course, we have to defeat the virus. And
that is in our health care system. That is
a vaccine. That is a therapy to get this behind
us and then to get the economy back on its
own two legs, so to speak.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Neel Kashkari, president of
the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, thank
you so much for joining us.
NEEL KASHKARI: Thank you for having me.
