Hi everybody.
Ian Bremmer here with the latest edition of
The Red Pen.
And today we’re taking our red pen
to an op-ed entitled
“Can Taiwan Survive a Second Trump Term?”
It’s written by global affairs columnist Frida Ghitis.
As you know, there’s been a lot of
international attention on Hong Kong
as Beijing continues to take steps
to erode democracy there.
They’ve implemented a new national security law
that basically ends the
“One State, Two Systems” agreement, they had there.
But Taiwan is very different.
An island off China’s coast
that has its own government.
Beijing would very much like full control there.
Ghitis is arguing that as the United States
continues to retreat on the global stage
in the Trump presidency, Taiwan will become
increasingly vulnerable.
And she draws the conclusion that overall
a Biden presidency would be much better for Taiwan.
Now, is that true?
Well, not to sound like your Facebook
relationship status,
but it’s complicated.
Let’s look at the points she makes to
support the argument.
First, Ghitis writes that Trump has a
long track record of lavishing praise
on President Xi, calling him a
“friend of mine” and an “incredible guy.”
And paying little attention to matters other than trade.
Actually, Trump has said all those things,
but the Trump administration has ramped up
defense of non-Chinese claims in the
South China Sea and they’ve taken fairly serious
economic steps to punish China
for their actions in Hong Kong.
So, while Trump has praised Xi Jinping personally,
he’s also driven the most anti-China-US policy
in decades.
And directly, the Trump administration has
flooded Taiwan with arms to defend itself,
much more than what we saw
under the Obama administration.
So, leading international opposition to Chinese
policies has arguably been the most successful
and most widely supported part
of Trump’s foreign policy.
Next, Ghitis writes that since China is
“increasingly willing to flout international views” on
issues ranging from Hong Kong to Xinjiang
(where a million ethnic Uighurs, a Muslim
minority in China, are being held in essentially
concentration camps, they call them
“re-education camps”),
it might just make a move on Taiwan.
Now these, in my view, really aren’t
accurate comparisons.
China is aggressive, yes.
Reckless?
No.
Hong Kong and Xinjiang are already part of China.
The US has a 40+ year commitment
to defending Taiwan.
Really hard to make that comparison.
Finally, the punchline:
“Biden looks like a safer bet than Trump
for the survival of Taiwan’s independence.”
Maybe.
But the truth is, no US president
would be eager for a war in China,
even to defend Taiwan.
If anything, Biden is more likely to ease up
the pressure a bit on China and take a
less militaristic approach to foreign policy.
There is no indication that Biden is changing
the US’s fundamental approach of strategic
ambiguity that has guided US foreign policy
on this issue. In other words,
“Defending Taiwan at all costs”
is not going to be one of Biden’s
talking points.
So, I mean, I understand that a lot of people
are really angry at President Trump for a
lot of mistakes in domestic and foreign policy,
but saying that suddenly
"Biden is your guy, Taiwan,"
that doesn't make an awful lot of sense here.
That's your Red Pen for this week.
See you again soon.
In the meantime, stay safe and avoid people.
Be good.
