Surprise! Don't know if you guys are
aware but you have two brains and if you
want to make better decisions I suggest
this book "Thinking Fast and Slow" by
Daniel Kahneman, I am Nick Knightsbridge
and let's get into our review, summary! Ok
so section one starts - soft talking
about the two brain systems that we
apparently have, according to the author
and the first one we have, just called system
one, is an impulsive non conscious kind
of side of your brain so, it's basically
the autopilot, so when we really don't
need to think us deliberately about
something it's just it's always on and
most of the days we you know we kind of
cruise on this so to speak. And the other
side is system two, and this is the
methodical deliberate side of the brain
that kind of is better with
decision-making and it's obviously a
little bit slower but much more aware,
aware of things around and so it's
basically not cruise control. Next
section talks about how, most of the time
because system one is working or we're
thinking with system one, that it doesn't
it doesn't bring in system two, if
it's not necessary, because system two is
a little bit taxing on on on kind of our
minds, and if anything our brains and
our bodies are developed to kind of save
on calories and uses least effort as
possible so system two is not employed
and this creates a problem according to
the author, and leads to mistakes and
example he used in the book was the bat
and ball problem that said, if a bat and
ball cost a dollar ten and the
bat's a dollar, how much is the ball
most people go, immediately think that
hey must be ten cents but if you do the
math, it's actually five cents because
it's it's a dollar more; but anyway just
an example of how we make problems a lot
simpler than they might be, because we
don't want to employ, kind of the taxing
system to of our minds so this obviously
leads the mistakes. Next section talks
about priming, and and that's basically
how we put things or, you could kind of
call it stereotype, but yeah well not
really,
you basically we put words into
categories and I guess it's like the the
mind's filing system to make things
easier for us again, probably to save
energy;
and an example he used in the book was
if I gave you four letters so S P and
then excuse me, it was one dash, so you the
mystery letter S O, then underscore
P wouldn't mean much to you right? But if
I added eat before that, word your mind
would immediately see "soup" it would see
a U in that place. Now if I said bath or
a shower, you probably would imagine an A,
turning that into A "soap" so basically
this is this is what priming is, it's
about it's about using the kind of
cultural, social, and let's say
environmental conditions to to think
about words or put yourself yeah, make a
certain word selection available so a
certain vocabulary available and yeah
these these these triggers so priming is
really happening to us all the time
every day and we we have to be wary of
it, because we're kind of
more likely to make mistakes because
because our minds just kind of put stuff
into pools of words, and events etc and,
yeah, so and according to according to a
sociologist Vaughn, Voss excuse me II
that was mentioned the book there's a
priming kind of could move us away from
altruism and altruism, I'm sure you guys
know but if not it just means basically
mutualism, like benefiting of others as
well as ourselves.
All right, next section is snap judgments
and so so this is basically sometimes
called the 'halo effect' and how that
works is, if you meet someone who's nice
let's say you're you know dinner party
whatever and half an hour ago you meet
someone who's nice and then you know you
stop talking you move on to another
crowd or another group and you're mingling,
someone asks you if you know someone
that, we would be good for a particular
job or something like something like
that, you might recommend the person you
met half an hour ago just basically
because he was nice and you guys got
along. So this is a 'halo effect'. Now
you know you don't you don't know
anything about the person more than
probably, pleasantries some basics, you
don't have enough data to say whether
he'd be good for a particular position
job etc, or even as a date or whatnot, but
we we kind of because we go along with
them and they were nice we remember them
better and we also seem to think that
they'd be good at other stuff or or you
know maybe suited for a position that
you kind of have no idea whether they
are actually suited to or for. So, that's
that.
Another form of snap judgment
is is a 'confirmation bias' so it this is
really based on how you ask a question
for example and if you for example ask
is James friendly? Because you implied
that he's friendly the answer I mean
because because there's no evidence to
the contrary people, are more likely to
say yes they're not yes. But if you if
you ask for example the same question:
how is the demeanor of James? James'
demeanor you might get a lot of
different answers,
friendly might be one of them, but if
you implied that he might be friendly,
you're more likely to get that answer. So,
basically the mind confirms the
suggestion; that's important to remember,
and there are always, according to the author,
there's always kind of different
cognitive phenomena that are happening
that are affecting our choices, our
judgments, our actions and we have to be
wary of that! Okay next section is
heuristics I'm still not sure how to
pronounce that but heuristics, or
heuristics, heuristics yeah. So, these are
basically shortcuts; and what do I mean
by that you might ask.
And so the two kinds that he's alluded to
in the book, and one of them is
substitution heuristics, and this is
basically when we simplify a question,
example, is is this lady sheriff and you
and you kind of give a name or whatever,
and a picture,
suited for her job, as as will, she be a
successful sheriff let's say. And and
people might simplify and and what
substitution heuristic is that they kind of
shortcut this question and change it
into something much simpler than it is.
So some they'd they'd the the questions
really asking if they would be
well-suited for the job and but, our mind
might think that does she look good for
the job and so, that's the example of
that, Now another one would be
availability heuristic, so this is the
like the over estimation of the
probability of something that that's
likely to happen. For example, we hear
much more often about plane crashes, even
though there are very very few of them,
than car crashes but as most
statisticians will tell you, planes are a
lot safer to travel in than cars, but
most people would would would might
might have the contrary, you know the the
other idea that that driving is a lot
less dangerous, is safer because we don't
hear of as many traffic accidents, and if
we do of course they don't get the same
press coverage you know what I mean, as a
plane crash! Everyone still remembers, you
know, the Malaysia Airlines flight that
went down a few years ago and they still
haven't found that, so, the wreckage so
yeah that's example of that. Next section
status, excuse me statistics and how
they confuse people. So I guess I guess
most people don't really have a knack
for numbers, or at least statistics, and
the according to author base rate
neglect is very common; and what that
means is that, we we tend to forget if
we're given like a rate of something
occurring for example 80 to 20, like 80%
and
the example that was used was run is
seeing a yellow cab in New York City as
opposed to a red cab, 20 percent. So
because we send we people have a natural
tendency to focus on expectations and
not statistics, if we see like six or
seven yellow cabs pass by we tend to
think the next one is probably going to
be a red one, even though we know that 80
percent or at least I guess part of our
brain knows but they ignores the fact
that 80 percent of the cabs are yellow
so it's still below the base rate, so
we're so likely they see more yellow
cabs and so so yeah so we we said we
tend to forget statistics and just go on
expectation and yeah and because the
author highlights that everything has to
regress back to the mean, so it's gonna
go back to the average, even if we see
even if we see you, know what four or
five or six red cabs we might start to
question the statistic, that you know
that the base rate of 20 percent, and
think that it's actually higher maybe,
it's 50/50. But in the long run will,
still regress back to the mean so in the
end it's still 20 percent no matter what
happened. So yeah, people have a
hard time with that.
Okay, next section is an interesting one
it is about types of, types of
memory, and memories I mean in in the
criminal justice system it's well known
that memory, more and more evidence to
show that memory is kind of subjective
and not very objective, so so and
probably this explains why the first one
is that, there's two types of
memory one is the experience memory as
the author calls it and that's 'how am I
feeling right now?'
and the other type is is
remembering memory, so basically it's
formed after the fact after the event
and how so and this question, kind of
asks yourself how was the feeling
overall, and this one kind of takes
precedence so when we remember an event
we tend to fixate on what happened, after
the event, which isn't as a reliable
obviously because because, you know as
time passes our memory kind of fades and
and so, even if it's something, especially
if it's something kind of horrific or
life-changing, the the kind of the
hormones and the everything going all
the time and the nerves means that our
mind is not so concerned about our
memory at the time, that takes it kind of
a back burner to taking care of the
problem on hand but so when we do form
the memory it's kind of a, it's in the
past
and so it's it's not as accurate. So and
and and there's also another another
added kind of interesting phenomena to
that that, that people tend to remember
the peaks and the troughs and the ending
of an event much better. So if the peak
was very high the kind of violation was
very high even though the vast majority
of it was mundane we tend to remember
the peak and and and also the the trough,
so something was really really bad but
most of it was okay we tend to remember
that. Also that low point as well as how
it ended so towards the end also kind of
we're weighted more towards that so
obviously this is gonna have problems,
when we're trying to remember the whole
event or describe how the whole event
ensued or to place
yeah it's, I guess time especially is
relative in these situations. All right
so yeah that causes faulty memories
obviously lots of lots of,
you know repercussions not just when it
comes to the criminal justice system.
Alright next section is on focus and
it's talking about cognitive ease versus
cognitive strain, and so cognitive ease
was that you know when when basically
that first memory system is in charge,
while we're kind of cruising, you know
and we don't need to kind of make very
difficult decisions or learn something
new that's kind of taxing; and obviously
cognitive strain is is the contra it's,
when system number two is in mind and as
I mentioned as I mentioned, system two
isn't normally employed unless it's
needed to system one is normally kind of
running the show and you could kind of
consider system to a specialist you know
and they have a problem like you know
your pipes are leaking,
no pun intended, you you know you have
plumbing trouble at home and you need to
call a plumber,
that's system two number no system one
of course though there are there are
pros and cons to each system obviously,
system one is more creative and but but
at the same time it's less precise and
system two is the opposite so not very
creative very methodical but more
precisely likely to make mistakes. And
interesting thing that the author points
to is how a system one, if if we're
trying to get a message across if you
promote a sense of a kind of a sense of
cognitive ease or
yeah, if you promote cognitive ease in
people so basically a more relaxed
message when they don't need to think as
much, and it's repeated it's much more
likely that that we have a positive
response to it, and and as soon as I read
that I really thought about the 2016
presidential election that many many
people were saying that the reason why
why Trump won was because his messages
were very clear you know I mean some of
them mind you a little bit bigoted
obviously and now you could argue some
of them pretty prejudicial racist but
they were very clear and they were
repeated. They had a lot of advertising
money and so and and and because he made
things simple, um it promoted a sense of
cognitive ease you could argue so and
and according to the author that that is
more likely to risk you know kind of
instill a sense of ease, and and and have
a positive response to the kind of the
stimulus, so interesting way to think
about the last election. And obviously
when you need to employ a system to when
we have, when you're dealt when you're
dealing with complicated things, such as
you know, dealing with stats or new ideas,
conceptual thinking,
system to is required and yeah it just
basically put your mind into a kind of
an overdrive and it's working much
harder. All right next section is about
presentation and what I mean by that is
really offshoot to the previous section,
excuse me, a lot the previous session
this
the section on stats. So this it's all
about it's all about how we present
something, and and for example author use
the example if we if we say that 10% of
people who have offended in the past in
terms of, criminality convicted
let's just say, 10% of convicts okay
actually this scenario best way to put
it
scenario at hand was, you are on the
board of a parole board and you have to
decide whether a person should be paroled,
so let into the community or not
whether there's still a risk to society
and and it's better to keep them in
custody for longer basically to keep the
population safe. So they did they did a
study about this and if people were told
for example that 10 percent of of
convicted criminals would re-offend
they were more likely to approve, because
it's kind of an abstract thing but if
you told them one in 10 people will will
re-offend, they're much less likely to approve
the parole. So obviously that's exactly
it since the the same chances, the same
probability but we seem to have a much
more of a kind of a visceral response to
one in 10, it seems to resonate I guess
people can picture this one person in 10
re-offending.
But if we just say 10 percent of we're
not really imagining a certain specific
person there so again the same the same
with
other stats if we say point, 0.001
percent are more likely to commit murder
after they're released on parole of this
population of course, or one in 100,000
the latter is much more likely to get a
negative kind of response and and parole
is more likely to be denied. So
yeah presentation matters, and again it's
really based on how you how you present
information. Okay, next section is the
fact that we are not purely rational and
and what he means by that the author
Kahneman, what he means by that is that
we've moved away from the kind of
basically sociologists and psychologists
that believed in pure you know,
'utility theory 'well basically what was
that Milton Friedman was, I believe a
professor at University of Chicago and
he would he believed that basically
people are rational purely rational and
they base their decisions on that
rationality and their utility. So
whatever is most beneficial to them, they
will they will go with that option. But,
if I just give you an example here that
the book highlighted you might not agree
and this is why we're kind of moving
away from this from this type of
thinking. If you imagine if you have two
gamblers going to Las Vegas, "whales," big
big gamblers, one of them walks in with
nine million dollars loses four million
and has five million at the end of the
day; another one walks in with 1 million,
but
wins four million dollars and has 5
million at the end of the day. So both have
5
million dollars; now you don't need to be
a sociologist to figure out that
the second person is gonna be a lot
happier right? Because why they both have
five million dollars so it's not just
about utility obviously. All right so
next section is about yeah well actually
next section is much much much like the last
section is it's it's about how people
think and it's about emotional sway with
respect to things basically wins losses,
things like that. So another example, if
you if you have a thousand dollars and
you you you have to pay your you lose or
you spend or whatever you do, and you go,
and now you have nine hundred you're
probably a lot happier than the second
person who who has two hundred and then
somehow loses or spends one hundred, and
goes down to one hundred dollars. So so,
they but if you look at it you know
point-blank they both have spent or lost
one hundred dollars but the person that
still has nine hundred is probably a lot
happier than the one who looks, and lost
half of his fun so we went from two
hundred to one hundred. So if that makes
any sense you look at where you're
coming from
where you going to not purely on on the
numbers at hand. And the last section
talks about how images are built into
our minds to explain ideas and concepts
and we really rely on these images. Great
example of that in the book was
basically, if someone tells you to dress
for a summer's day, you might you know kind
of think t-shirt shorts and sun cream
where,
but somewhere a summers day is often not
very warm, and the last even the last
summer day like last summer may have
been pretty chilly, and we don't we don't
kind of think about that we go to this
image we have of a summers day and we
don't look at the stats we don't look at
the history we don't look at personal
previous experience, and think well it
might be pretty cold and I should take a
sweater! So yeah this this the reality
versus this image is often a problem
for people, and not least of which it
might lead you to catch a cold. Okay so
that's it that's my summary. Book again
is "Thinking Fast and Slow", really a great
insight into the human mind and making
better decisions. It's a kind of a hefty
book, but I definitely recommend it!
