 WE
ARE SLIDING, IF THAT CONTINUES,
WE ARE IN RECESSION AND IT BEGAN
BACK IN DECEMBER.
>> IS IT POSSIBLE THAT WE NEVER
LEFT RECESSION?
>> YES.
IF THE ECONOMY KEEPS TURNING
DOWN AND KEEPS MOVING DOWN, IT
WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THAT THE
ECONOMY HAS DONE THAT WITHOUT
FIRST REGAINING THE PRE-
RECESSION PEAK.
>> WITH ME IS JOE BRUSUELAS.
JOE, A VERY KEY POINT THAT HE
MADE.
WE MAY NEVER HAVE COME OUT OF
RECESSION IN THE FIRST PLACE.
>> WHEN THEY REVISED THE G.D.P.
FORECAST LAST MONTH, THE
EXPANSION THAT WE THOUGHT HAD
TAKEN HOLD WAS REVISED AWAY.
IF WE DON'T GROW THIS QUARTER,
IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME IN
U.S. ECONOMIC HISTORY THAT WE
WILL NOT HAVE BOUNCED OUT OF
THE RECESSION AND SURPASSED THE
PREVIOUS NOMINAL PEAK.
IT IS GREAT THAT YOU BROUGHT
THAT UP BECAUSE IT IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY.
WE HAVE NEVER GOTTEN OUT OF THE
DITCH AND POLICY MAKERS HAVE
BEGUN TO GRAPPLE WITH THAT.
>> IT IS THE FIRST TIME IN
HISTORY THAT --
>> THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY COMING
OUT OF RECESSION WOULD NOT HAVE
SURPASSED THE NOMINAL PEAK IN
GDP.
>> OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME?
>> WHAT IT MEANS IS, WE ARE NOT
GOING INTO A DOUBLE-DIP
RECESSION.
IT WILL BECOME A LONG RECESSION
THAT PEOPLE WILL PROBABLY START
CALLING A DEPRESSION.
>> WHEN THE MONEY RAN OUT, SO
DID THE ARTIFICIAL GROWTH?
>> CASH FOR CLUNKERS, TAX
CREDIT, ALL OF THOSE POLICY
THINGS DID NOT WORK.
