It’s National Nursing Day in the White House
— a moment to honour the people on the front
lines of the pandemic.
Donald Trump is here to say thank you — and
sign a declaration while the nurses look on.
As he turns to the press, a reporter asks
a question about the economy. In his answer,
Trump turns his fire on China. Framing the
spread of the coronavirus like a military
attack.
“This is really the worst attack we’ve
ever had. This is worse than Pearl Harbor.
This is worse than the World Trade Center.
There’s never been an attack like this.
And it should have never happened. It could
have been stopped at the source. It could
have been stopped in China. It should have
been stopped right at the source, and it wasn’t.”
We’re all used to Donald Trump mouthing
off. That’s his trademark. But this is important.
It matters to all of us — here in Europe
and all over the world. The two most powerful
countries on earth are descending deeper and
deeper into a profound form of conflict. Some
are even calling it a new Cold War. And just
like the coronavirus itself, this is going
to define our age.
From the military to technology, the economy
to political influence, the rivalry between
the US and China is intensifying in just about
every realm of human existence. Now the outbreak
of the Coronavirus in China and its spread
around the world has taken tensions to a new
extreme.
“Well, I think that China U.S. relation
is probably at historic lows. I mean, since
China and the US has established diplomatic
ties in the last four decades.”
“The current state is very serious, and
that's it's very dire. I think we're at a
point where tensions, bilateral tensions are
really, really high.”
“I think it's going to be a very dangerous
year.”
And the world is going to have to face up
to some very big choices.
“Our European friends need to decide what
they stand for.”
“We are allies with America. But that does
not imply that we just follow the lead of
an incapable leader like President Trump,
like sheep.”
“It will be for all of us to to realize
where our heart is, you know, is it towards
business interest or is it towards values,
at some point we will have to make a choice.
I really believe so.”
Now one thing in this story that’s so important…
is that this clash between the US and China
isn’t just about the Coronavirus.
The pandemic we’re living through right
now can seem so all-pervasive. Almost as if
it’s a “reset” of human existence.
But these tensions between the US and China
have much deeper roots. So in this video we’re
not just going to ask what’s going on now.
We’re going to dig down and find out what
lies beneath. And finally we’re going to
ask… what comes next… Are we about to
enter a new Cold War?
January 2020. It’s just a few months ago
but it feels like another era. Donald Trump
went to the World Economic Forum at Davos
and hailed his relationship with his Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping.
"Our relationship with China right now has
probably never been better. We went through
a very rough patch, but it’s never, ever
been better. My relationship with President
Xi is an extraordinary one. He's for China,
I'm for the US but other than that, we love
each other."
Trump was buoyant after signing what was being
called a phase 1 trade deal with China. Easing
tensions amid a long-running trade war that
Trump had started.
Even as the Covid-19 outbreak spread in February,
Trump was flattering Xi Jinping.
"China is working very hard. Late last night,
I had a very good talk with President Xi,
and we talked about — mostly about the coronavirus.
They’re working really hard, and I think
they are doing a very professional job."
But soon the outbreak hit the US with full
force. New York became one of the worst hotspots
in the world. And the Trump administration
came under massive fire for failing in its
response.
At the same time, evidence was mounting that
China hadn’t been open about the early days
of the outbreak, losing crucial time that
could have saved lives.
And speculation even grew about whether a
special laboratory in Wuhan was the SOURCE
of the virus.
As the political pressure has mounted on the
Trump administration, Trump has seized on
China as the real villain of the Coronavirus
outbreak.
“China should be held responsible for what
they’ve done. They have hurt the world very,
very badly. They’ve hurt themselves also.
But they’ve hurt the world very, very badly.”
And with the election campaign looming, pro-Trump
groups have put out ads attacking China — and
linking it to his opponent Joe Biden. The
message: don’t blame us for what’s going
on — blame China.
The data suggest that it MIGHT be effective…
2/3 of Americans have a negative view of China…
a figure that’s risen higher and higher
in recent years.
All this is the backdrop to those comments
we heard Trump make when he met those nurses
in the White House.
“This is worse than Pearl Harbor. This is
worse than the World Trade Center. There’s
never been an attack like this…”
China, for its part, has been firing back.
“What China opposes is the U.S. and other
countries trying to politicize the origin
of the coronavirus.”
It’s turning into a bitter blame game played
by both sides.
“One thing that I do think is interesting
between in this whole blame China strategy
is that the Chinese also has a blame the US
strategy.
Melissa Chan reported from China for Al Jazeera
for several years before her credentials were
revoked. She now works for a number of outlets
including DW New Asia.
“Some of their diplomats have come out to
say and blame the United States as being the
ones who created this virus during a military
game, international military games that was
held in China. They are accusing the Americans
of having brought the virus to China to Wuhan.
And so you have this geopolitical spat where
both sides are are arguing sometimes based
on what appears to be unsubstantiated conspiracy
theory.”
We’ve been speaking to analysts in both
China and the United States — and as you’d
expect, they have very different perspectives.
But there’s one thing they do agree on.
Relations have never been so bad.
“Well, I think that China U.S. relations
is probably at historic lows. I mean, since
China and the US has established diplomatic
ties in the last four decades…”
Wang Huiyao heads the Centre for China and
Globalisation think tank in Beijing and has
close ties to the Chinese government.
“There is a wide consensus actually among
government officials here in China and among
the elite, among the business community, that
somehow the US is turning its back on China.”
“The current state is very serious, and
that's it's very dire. I think we're at a
point where tensions, bilateral tensions are
really, really high.”
Nadège Rolland views US-China relations from
a transatlantic perspective. She spent 20
years as a China expert at the French Ministry
of Defence. Now she’s based at a US think
tank. She points out…
“…that the coronavirus crisis isn’t
just putting the Trump administration under
political pressure… but Beijing too … and
that adds to the danger.”
“If there's a prospect of recession in the
next few months, then there's always the possibility
that the regime will want to deflect the pressure,
the internal pressure on something else. And
the possibility of conflict is not to be dismissed,
unfortunately. That would be, of course, very
escalatory and the risks will be enormous.”
All this tension already goes way beyond angry
statements and tweets. There are real consequences,
right now. Things that could matter in the
fight against the coronavirus.
The US pulled funding from the World Health
Organization, accusing it of being too cozy
with Beijing. It was a dramatic move and an
example of how the Trump administration has
broken with America’s traditional global
approach to crises like this.
“The last pandemic that we had was Ebola
in Africa. And at that time, the United States
took a leading role internationally to coordinate
efforts to push back and to fight against
Ebola.”
Reinhard Bütikofer is a veteran German member
of the European parliament and leads the parliament’s
delegation on relations with China.
“Today there’s not even an attempt to
show leadership on the part of the United
States. China sees that. Everybody sees it,
and China tries to exploit that.”
Meanwhile the pandemic has exposed America’s
dependence on China for essential medical
supplies. This has fuelled talk of a major
rethink — a “decoupling” of America’s
economy from its deep ties with China.
And Donald Trump has egged this on… In one
of his most striking comments so far, Trump
has raised the prospect of a total detachment
from the Chinese economy.
In an interview with the Fox Business Channel,
he said “We could cut off the whole relationship.
Now if you did, what would happen? We’d
save $500 billion!”
Trump made no explanation of that figure.
But even by his standards, it’s a radical
thing to suggest. Could the US really cut
all ties with China? We’ll get to that later
in the video. First, let’s dig down to the
roots of the current crisis…
The story begins 40 years ago with this man.
Deng Xiaoping. He took power in Beijing after
the death of Mao Zedong in the late 1970s,
and began to develop an economy crippled by
decades of Communist experiments. Throughout,
Deng stuck to a modest approach to China’s
role in the world outside. Effectively: don’t
stick your neck out.
“I think Deng Xiaoping will be recorded
in history as one of the extraordinary figures
of the history of the 20th century.”
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
remembers that time. He worked at the Australian
Embassy in Beijing in the 1980s.
“He took this Maoist wreck otherwise called
China in the Cultural Revolution and through
a internal party coup, took out the Maoist
ideologues and instead inserted what's known
as a pragmatic economic program domestically
and internationally, which turbo charged China's
economic growth.”
Economic development didn’t mean an end
to repression… The Tiananmen Square massacre
near the end of Deng’s time in 1989 brought
the condemnation of the world.
But under Deng’s successors, China’s economic
growth continued. And with the return of Hong
Kong from British rule in 1997 it gained a
significant new stepping stone into the world
economy.
And you could say the 21st century so far
has been the incredible story of China’s
rise to become a global power. And what’s
really striking is if you follow a timeline
of the last twenty years, there’s milestone
after milestone where China took a step forward,
and the US stumbled…
In December 2001 China joined the World Trade
Organisation… It was THE key moment in becoming
part of the world economy.
Joining the WTO provided a massive boost to
growth and investment, triggering a boom in
low-cost manufacturing, as firms from around
the world turned to China.
What was the US doing at the end of 2001?
It was reeling from the 9/11 attacks… and
launching into two decades of war that still
haven’t fully ended today.
Fast forward to August 2008 and China was
in the limelight as never before. The Beijing
Olympics were like a coming out party for
an ever more confident power.
Just three weeks later, Lehman Brothers went
bankrupt, intensifying the worst financial
crisis since the great depression. The world
economy took a huge hit. But the impact was
deepest in the West.
And for the first time, China’s economy
played a significant role in powering the
world back to recovery.
You could see these years after the financial
crisis as the time when the balance of power
between the US and China was shifting — quietly
but significantly.
The American economy was in deep trouble And
the federal government was borrowing massive
amounts of money to keep IT afloat. Here too,
China played a role.
Within three years of the Lehman crash, China
more than doubled its holdings of US federal
government debt, becoming the biggest foreign
lender to the United States at well over $1
trillion.
Even some of America’s success stories had
Chinese DNA… The iPod and iPhone, for instance,
were manufactured in China.
So things were looking pretty good for China
when this man became its new leader in 2013.
Xi Jinping. He rose to power just as China’s
economy was OVERTAKING America’s in the
key measure of purchasing power.
Xi Jinping is an absolutely pivotal figure
in this story. His accession to power marked
the moment that China truly switched up a
gear. From the primarily economic development
that began a generation earlier with Deng
Xiaoping. To something much more assertive
— and much more consequential for the rest
of the world.
In one of his first big speeches he even spoke
of a “Chinese Dream.”
“We must double our efforts and continue
with a firm will to push forward the cause
of socialism with Chinese characteristics,
and continue to realise the great renaissance
of the Chinese nation and the Chinese dream.”
This was a newfound confidence to say that
China’s success was no accident… It didn’t
become what it is DESPITE being an authoritarian
power, but because of it. Government advisor
Wang Huiyao says China’s track record against
its democratic neighbour India proves the
point.
“In the 1980s, China and India were at the
same level of economic development. Now China
is a five times ahead of India. So China's
doing well. China's doing fine. They just
want the world to know be a bit more accepting
on that, a bit more tolerant rather than see
China as different.”
And just a few months into Xi Jinping’s
time in office, there was another of those
moments where you could see America stumbling
as China marched ahead…
In the autumn of 2013, the US didn’t even
have a functioning government. American politics
had become so divided that Congress couldn’t
agree on how to fund basic services — so
they simply shut down. The American political
system was breaking under intense polarisation…
the fallout from a decade of war and financial
crisis.
Around the same time, Xi Jinping was in Jakarta,
where he announced China’s most ambitious
project ever. Its name: One Belt, One Road.
Evocatively named after the historic “Silk
Road” trading route.
Belt and Road was a monumental plan to connect
the infrastructure of China to the rest of
Asia and beyond to Europe and Africa. The
message: Look at what we’ve built in China.
Let’s bring that to you.
The project let loose hundreds of billions
of dollars’ worth of Chinese investment
particularly in developing countries. It was
especially attractive to governments with
patchy records on governance and human rights
— with the message, funding would come without
political strings attached. Unlike some development
funding from Western countries.
This meant that China wasn’t just exporting
infrastructure. It was effectively exporting
its way of doing things, too.
“What they're saying, though, is, you know,
it worked for us. So you don't have to choose
a liberal democracy for your own countries
if you don't want to, because our own example
proves that you can you can be somehow like
us and be successful, too. And not only that,
but through the belt and road initiative,
we China are going to be able to help you
grow economically through the distribution
of loans or investments. And we're not going
to look at your political records or your
human right records or your transparency or
your anti-corruption levels in your own country.
We're not interested in that.”
And that message has found a huge number of
takers over the past seven years, with more
than 100 countries joining the initiative
in one way or another. It’s creating a growing
bloc of nations many of which have become
highly dependent on China for economic growth
and development. What you could call a global
sphere of influence.
“China wants to pool smaller and weaker
countries into its own orbit and create some
sort of Sino centric sphere of influence.
What China wants out of those countries is
a level of a level of respect, a level of
deference. But this deference and respect
is not just symbolic. I think it's it has
real concrete implications.”
Those implications can be onerous, as Sri
Lanka discovered. It’s been a hotspot of
Belt and Road investment, but as debts to
Beijing mounted, it ceded control of a key
sea port to China for 99 years.
There are fears that similar fates could await
governments in other parts of the world. And
what’s more, that sphere of influence doesn’t
just have financial implications… they’re
political too.
“Because of this enormous leverage, economic
leverage that China has over other countries,
none of these countries will or governments
will want to go against China's will. You
see, it's a it's it's not just a symbolic
deference. It's also a very it has a very
concrete application to how China is acting
and behaving and other countries are basically
paralyzed because they don't have any ways
to go against, to go against it.”
So Belt and Road is a potentially huge source
of power and influence for China around the
developing world. But let’s take a look
at that map again… Because it’s not JUST
developing countries that are joining in.
Just last year, in Europe Italy, Greece and
Portugal all signed up to the project.
Xi Jinping was received to great fanfare as
he toured his new partners’ capitals — places
still feeling the after-effects of the 2008
financial crisis. And now, the economic crash
caused by the pandemic has made them more
desperate than ever for sources of growth.
These countries are in the European Union.
They’re in NATO too. Core members of the
Western alliance… now forging closer ties
with China.
China’s forays into Europe don’t stop
there. As we saw in a recent video, it’s
made highly publicised deliveries of supplies
to many European countries during the coronavirus
crisis, seen as an attempt to patch up its
image after the outbreak began on its soil.
And in another initiative called 17+1, China
has created a platform for cooperation with
a swathe of central and European countries
from the Baltics to the Balkans… most of
them young democracies tempted by the prospect
of Chinese investment.
On the military front, China has been advancing
rapidly too. It’s been strengthening its
foothold in the strategically essential South
China Sea. Here, the United States has been
pushing back, frequently sending warships
through the region to assert its freedom to
use the waterways. But in every realm of military
power, China continues to advance.
“The fundamentals of China's economic power
have purchased for it now extraordinary military
reach in conventional military capabilities
and cyber capabilities which didn't have before.”
What about political development? Are there
any signs that China is opening up politically,
as it has done economically? Here the answer
is a very clear no.
Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong have only
seen Beijing tighten its grip on the territory,
raising concerns it won’t honour the agreements
signed when it regained control of the former
British colony.
And in the western region of Xinjiang, the
Muslim minority Uighur population is undergoing
repression on an epic scale. With as many
as a million people subjected to re-education
camps. DW has reported on systematic abuses
revealed in leaked documents.
Far from opening China’s politics up, Xi
Jinping has tightened its authoritarian system
and consolidated his own power, removing limits
so he could potentially rule for life.
“Since Xi Jinping has taken control of all
things Chinese in China on the mainland, China
has seen what could be described as amounting
to a kind of regime change. Collective leadership,
term limits for the top position. A certain
small level of, well, I don't want to say
liberty, but allowing civil society to find
niches in which it could play an active role.
At least addressing human rights issues. All
that has vanished.”
And as China’s global ambitions grow…
that commitment to its authoritarian model
has more and more implications for the rest
of the world.
“Xi Jinping doesn't only try to be a global
leader, he tries to be a global bully. This
leadership obviously finds that if they push
hard, they can establish a more China-centric
order than would have been conceivable ten,
fifteen, twenty years ago.”
So what was happening in the US since we last
checked in? Well, the political divisions
we saw forcing a government shutdown back
in 2013 got deeper and deeper.
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 brought
that to its logical conclusion. And while
so much attention has focussed on whether
Russia helped him to win…. You could argue
that actually, his victory was all about China.
I covered that 2016 election as one of DW’s
US correspondents. And I went to a lot of
Donald Trump rallies. And everywhere he went,
in every single speech — he never stopped
talking about China. They’re views that
are deeply held.
“Trump has been remarkably consistent about
China. For someone who's known for being fairly
inconsistent. If you look at his rhetoric
in the 1980s, it wasn't China that was the
bogey man. It was Japan. But it's clear that
he has a certain view on trade where he believes
that certain countries take advantage of the
United States and are takers, are exporters
to the United States and have really benefited
from American consumers. And what he's done
in terms of his rhetoric with China is essentially
transferred his point of view from the 1980s
when he was talking a bit about Japan and
made it a China issue. And you could see that
when he was on the campaign trail in 2016.
So he can point to the historical past and
say, I have been warning you guys about China
all along. We need to be tough on China.”
So little wonder Trump’s trade war with
China has been one of the defining features
of his presidency so far…
So let’s take stock for a moment… where
things stood when the Coronavirus hit.
In the last seven years under Xi Jinping China
has become an undisputed economic superpower.
And it’s rolled out a global sphere of economic
and political influence. Its military power
is rapidly growing. And far from backing down
on its belief in authoritarian government…
It thinks it’s been proven right — and
offers its success as a model to the world.
A model that says — you don’t need democracy
to get ahead.
Meanwhile in the US, years of war, financial
meltdown and political dysfunction have culminated
in the election of Donald Trump, a man who
has made it his mission to take the fight
to China.
“We've ended up with two leaders in the
United States and China, which are now distinctly
nationalist. President Trump make America
great again. And President Xi Jinping, who
has discarded Deng Xiaoping's cautionary advice
about hide your strength, bide your time.
So therefore, the dynamics of these two leaderships
has made the structural factors at work even
sharper.”
“If you look to some people in the Trump
administration, Secretary Pompeo for instance,
it's tending towards all out confrontation.”
So what now? Is this all pointing to a new
Cold War?
It’s November 2018. An attack is underway
in Karachi, Pakistan.
The target: the Chinese Consulate in the city.
Police blamed separatists from the state of
Balochistan….
There, down on the coast, China is developing
one of the most important projects in the
Belt and Road initiative — a giant port
complex at the city of Gwadar. The site itself
has been the target of attacks too.
Gwadar is an absolutely crucial piece of infrastructure
for China… A direct foothold in the Arabian
Sea, connected all the way to Kashgar in China’s
Xinjiang region.
Why are militant attacks in Pakistan even
relevant to our story? Well, think about it.
So far we’ve been talking about the Belt
and Road initiative as an economic and political
project. But the more assets China has out
in the world, the more it will want to keep
them safe. That’s where Belt and Road takes
on more of a military dimension. Nadège Rolland
explains.
“They're looking at different ways to deal
with the security risks. Some of it is, for
example, what happened in Pakistan, which
is subcontracting the Pakistani army, the
military, Pakistani military forces, specifically
to protect the China Pakistan economic corridor.
So you have several thousands of Pakistani
soldiers who are devoted to the protection
of the workers, the Chinese workers and the
projects along that corridor.”
So already, you have China subcontracting
a special division of Pakistan’s army. Beyond
that, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin
Rudd foresees China’s own military playing
a more and more active role in defending the
Belt and Road — or BRI for short.
“I think one of the things we have to be
very careful in monitoring is what now happens
with BRI member states and the extent to which
China moves to militarize those relationships.
For example, both in Southeast Asia and across
the so-called string of pearls. That is maritime
bases in the in the Indian Ocean states, particularly
in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, but also in Pakistan
and now prospectively in Iran and already
in Djibouti, in the Red Sea, where China is
beginning to forward deploy naval and air
assets.”
And these are the sorts of assets where the
Belt and Road project could really turn into
a staging ground for Cold-War-style confrontation
with the United States.
“So under those circumstances, if we begin
to see an American pushback in those third
countries theaters, then it's not a large
gap between what we now have, which is an
emerging, as it were, a diplomatic chasm for
that to become a chasm of assuming more military
characteristics.”
It seems to have so many echoes of the Cold
War between the US and the Soviet Union. But
there is one fundamental difference between
then and now. The US and Russian economies
had barely any contact throughout the 20th-century
cold war. Whereas America and China do a huge
amount of business with each other.
“The characterisation I've given the US
China relationship and the future of the post-Covid
order is Cold War one point five. And the
reason I choose that term is because the one
differential between the previous Cold War
with the Soviet Union and the current estrangement
with the People's Republic of China is the
degree of economic interconnectedness between
China and the US.”
That interconnectedness, whether in iPhones
or almost any kinds goods and services, has
been a key economic story of the past two
decades. “Decoupling” - as the expression
goes - would involve massive disruption. On
both sides.
“There are 70,000 U.S. companies, set up
in China and January, some a hundred and a
hundred billion U.S. dollars in revenue a
year in China. For example, GM sells more
cars in China than the U.S. and China's Apple
largest market outside the U.S. So decoupling
is not that easy.”
But some decoupling IS already happening…
The US has banned American firms from working
with the Chinese 5G mobile networks giant
Huawei. And as the pandemic drags on, more
and more sectors might bring their supply
chains back home.
If finance gets hit by the decoupling trend
too… that could mean a much bigger break.
“That is starting to unravel not just in
trade or the trade wars, not just through
technology where the United States is taking
an increasingly restrictive approach and not
just in 5G, but prospectively in financial
markets as well. And if the economic ties
unbind and unravel, then you begin to look
at the characteristics of a Cold War we've
been through once before.”
And Donald Trump IS threatening to push down
that road of economic decoupling… remember
the interview with Fox Business that we flashed
up earlier…
“We could cut off the whole relationship.
Now if you did, what would happen? We’d
save $500 billion!”
You can just imagine that becoming a centrepiece
of Trump’s re-election campaign… bring
back all that business from China to America…
to rebuild the economy post-Coronavirus and
make America great again. As for China…
well, over in Beijing, Wang Huiyao says it’s
ready.
If U.S. is forcing decoupling, it's going
to first hurt U.S. companies. Secondly, going
to help China. It's going to help China to
thrive on its own. China will eventually develop
its own technology. And it's a system you
may slowing down sometime. But eventually
we will overcome.
This is what a new Cold War could look like.
With the US and China severing more and more
ties — economic and political — and retreating
into their own spheres of influence. The US
with its Western alliance on one side and
China with its Belt and Road on the other.
And just like the last Cold War — that means
the rest of the world having to decide — which
side are you on?
This is a nightmare scenario for Europe in
particular. Its economy has become even more
interlinked with China than America’s has.
“The level of economic involvement is just
huge. Germany alone exports more to China
than the U.K., France, Italy, Spain and the
Netherlands combined.”
To some on the outside, Europe has just been
coasting along…
“Our European friends need to decide what
they stand for. Europe's historical policy
with engagement with China has been periodically
complain about human rights, make as much
money as you can, and consign any security
policy concerns to the United States and its
Pacific allies.”
The EU has started to toughen its tone on
China. A year ago it came up with a new strategy
paper describing a three-part relationship
with China… One based on partnership, competition,
but also SYSTEMIC RIVALRY.
The two sides have been preparing for a major
summit on investment between Europe and China
later this year… one where Europe wanted
to demand a more “level playing field”
for European companies doing business in China.
That summit has been thrown up in the air
by the pandemic… And there are questions
about just how tough on China Europe will
be.
On Huawei for example, the EU has not followed
America’s lead with a ban. It’s just recommended
that member states limit its access to the
most sensitive parts of the 5G network.
Individual European countries are free to
take a harder line. Prominent German MEP Reinhard
Bütikofer says Berlin should do so.
“Let's check whether on the basis of national
security concerns and technological dependency
concerns, it's a smart approach to allow Huawei
into the 5G network. And I have long come
to the conclusion that this would not be smart.”
But Huawei is now trying to sweeten the deal,
saying it will build a 5G equipment factory
in France.
And as Beijing continues to nurture relationships
with European states, there are doubts that
Europe will be able to unite around tough
decisions involving China.
“This is a way for Beijing to be able to
make sure that Europe is divided. And some
and because Europe I mean, the EU is based
on the need for consensus. Before you take
the decision at the EU level, you need just
one country not to agree on this consensus,
to be able to to discard or to disregard a
joint posture. In societies and and countries
where we still haven't fully emerged from
the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008,
2009, these economic opportunities that China
is putting on the table on the table can be
quite vital. And this is the next enormous
leverage that Beijing has on the decision
of these countries. So you don't want to get
too upset or to anger China out by voting
against or by voting for a measure that would
limit the Chinese investments in Europe.”
And here’s the thing… public opinion in
Europe is also pretty divided.
A new opinion poll in Germany shows that germans
are almost equally split between those who
want closer ties with America and those wanting
to put China first.
That’s an extraordinary result when you
think of the historic relationship between
the US and Germany. But it could even get
worse. Donald Trump has made repeated threats
to open up a new trade war with the European
Union.
So that’s where Europe finds itself right
now. Facing the possibility of a new Cold
War between a difficult America and an encroaching
China. What should it do?
“As Europeans, you know, we're I think we're
very interested in in free trade and we're
very interested in keeping all the lines open
and transparent. But how is that going to
be still possible in the years to come if
China continues to to go in the same direction
that he it has taken for the last five years?
Where you see an increasing closing down and
increasing repression and increased aggression.
So I don't know. It will be for all of us
to to realize where our heart is, you know,
is it towards business interests or is it
towards values? At some point we will have
to make a choice. I really believe so.”
“We are allies with America. But that does
not imply that we just follow the lead of
an incapable leader like President Trump,
like sheep.”
16:07
We don't believe in restructuring international
governance according to the age old concept
of big power confrontation. We insist, as
Europeans to face international relations
based on the rule of law, international rule
of law and multilateralism. So of course,
we give much more relevancy to solving international
challenges that would benefit a lot from Chinese
contributions. President Trump has never thought
about a Chinese contribution to the fight
against climate change because in his mind,
climate change is a Chinese hoax.”
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
says it’s time for like-minded nations to
get together… at least to limit the fallout
of whatever is to come.
“I would if I were the mainstream Europeans
team up with comparable countries of parallel
clout in the international system to support
financially and diplomatically these essential
institutional pieces of machinery of the system
of global governance. While the elephants
continue to rampage in the living room.”
This has partly started happening… the EU
led an online fundraising effort to coordinate
work to find a coronavirus vaccine. China
only sent a junior delegate, and the US didn’t
even take part. But Kevin Rudd says it’s
essential to keep multilateral cooperation
alive… or at least, on life support.
“…keeping the institutions of global governance
afloat and functioning to the greatest extent
possible until we re-achieve a form of either
strategic equilibrium with China, the United
States. Alternatively, a new era of detente
is arranged, which defines the areas in which
a Cold War will be conducted and not conducted.”
This is the new world appearing on the horizon.
A world remade not just by the Coronavirus…
but by a new kind of Cold War.
