 
ISLAMIC STATE: CAN IT BE DEFEATED?

Published by Bhaskar Sarkar, at Smashwords

Cover art: Sarita Sharma

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Copyright Author Bhaskar Sarkar 2015

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DEDICATION

The book is dedicated to the hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, mostly women and children

who have been killed, brutalized or traumatized by the Islamic State and other Salafi Jihadists,

and those innocents civilians, who have been killed, brutalized or traumatized

by the anti Islamic State forces in the name of collateral damage while fighting it.

PREFACE

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took the world by surprise when it captured Mosul in northern Iraq and most of Sunni dominated provinces of Iraq in June 2014. On 29 June 2014, the group proclaimed itself to be an "Islamic State" (IS); a worldwide caliphate with Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi as its Caliph. (A Caliph is the successor of Prophet Muhammad as the political and temporal head of an Islamic empire ruled under Sharia laws). In June 2014, Islamic State published a document in which it claimed to have traced the lineage of its leader al-Baghdadi back to Muhammad. As caliphate, it claims religious, political and military authority over all Muslims worldwide. It questions the legality of all Muslim emirates, groups, states, and organizations and claims the caliphate's authority over their areas. It rejects the political divisions in the Middle East that were established by Western powers after collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of World War I based on the Sykes-Picot Agreement. By June 2014, IS had gained control over territory occupied by 8 to 10 million people in Iraq and Syria. Its affiliates control some territories in Libya, Sinai and Nigeria. The group also has affiliated Jihadi militant groups in other parts of the world including Europe, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The group is also known as DAESH which is the Arabic equivalent of "ISIL".

IS is a ruthless, barbaric group of Islamic fundamentalists which has no respect for human rights. It has carried out ethnic cleansing on a historic scale. The group has been designated as a terrorist organization by the UN, the EU, the UK, the US, India, Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Syria, Egypt, and Russia. Over 60 countries are directly or indirectly waging war against IS.

IS is well funded and known for its well managed web and social media propaganda. The propaganda material includes internet videos of execution and beheading of soldiers, civilians, journalists and aid workers, as well as the deliberate destruction of cultural heritage sites. The group gained prominence after it drove the Iraqi government forces out of key cities like Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit in Iraq. In Syria, it conducted attacks against both government forces and moderate US or Saudi Arabia backed rebel factions in the Syrian Civil War. IS's territorial gains in Iraq almost caused a collapse of the Iraqi government and prompted renewal of US military action in Iraq.

IS is a serious threat to Shia and other non Sunni branches of Islam, moderate Muslim States, Christians and followers of other religions and entire human values of modern day world. Sadly, it is still treated as a minor threat to world peace by the US, Europe, Sunni Arab countries and rest of the world except perhaps Russia.

Author

colbhaskarsarkar@yahoo.co.uk

Contents

Preface

Chapter 1: Birth and Rise of IS

Chapter 2: Understanding IS

Chapter 3: Battle Lines as in July 2015

Chapter 4: Reasons for Lack of Success

Chapter 5: Options before US Led Coalition

Chapter 6: Future Gazing

Prologue

Bibliography

Chapter 1: Birth and Rise Of IS

Birth of IS

IS originated as a group of fundamentalist Sunni militants in Iraq by the name of Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999. The main aim of the group was to kill Shias and other non Sunni Muslims. Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party was then in power in Iraq. From 1999 to 2003, it mainly targeted Shia institutions and pilgrims visiting the various Shia Shrines in Iraq with suicide bombings.

The US and its allies invaded Iraq in March 2003 and overthrew the Saddam Regime. The group participated in the Iraqi Insurgency which followed. It carried out many suicide attacks on Shia mosques, Shia civilians, Iraqi government institutions and soldiers who were a part of the US led multinational force. The group officially pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda network in Iraq in October 2004. It carried out attacks on Iraqi Government institutions and security forces, foreign diplomats and soldiers even after withdrawal of US forces in 2011.

Multi party elections were held in Iraq for the first time in 2005. Sunnis boycotted the elections. Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia, became the prime minister in 2006 and remained so till 2014. He purged Sunni and Kurdish officers from the new Iraqi Army. The Maliki government enacted policies favouring Shias and alienated the country's Sunni minority. This led to worsening sectarian tensions.

In January 2006, the group joined hands with several smaller Iraqi insurgent groups under an umbrella organization called the Muslim Mujahideen Shura Council. On 12 October 2006, the Council united with three smaller groups and six Sunni Islamic tribes to form the "Mutayibeen Coalition". It swore by Allah to rid Sunnis from the oppression of the Shias. It also promised to risk their lives to restore rights of Sunni Muslims. It vowed to make Allah's word supreme in the world and to restore the glory of Islam. A day later, Mutayibeen Coalition declared the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). ISI comprised Iraq's six mostly Sunni Arab provinces with Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its Emir. A ten member cabinet was formed to conduct the war and other operations.

The US troop surge of 2007 provided the US military with additional manpower for operations against Iraqi insurgents. US operations in Anbar Province resulted in killing or capture of many senior ISI members. Between July and October 2007, al-Qaeda in Iraq lost its secure military bases in Anbar Province and Baghdad. During 2008, a series of US and Iraqi offensives managed to drive out ISI militant from their safe havens in the Diyalia and Anbar provinces. This led to a temporary decline of the group. In a press conference in June 2010, commander of US forces in Iraq claimed that 80 per cent of the ISI's top 42 leaders had been killed or captured. The claim cannot be authenticated. But it could have led to complacency amongst US and Iraqi leaders.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the head of ISI, was killed in 2010. Abu Bakar al-Bagdadi was chosen the new leader of ISI. Al-Baghdadi strengthened the group's leadership by appointing former Ba'athist military officers who had served during Saddam Hussein's rule as military commanders. Most of them had been imprisoned by the U.S. military. They played a major part in the growth of ISI.

Arab Spring protests in Syria against the government of President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011. The Assad Government cracked down on the protestors. Violence between demonstrators and security forces led to a gradual militarization of the conflict. US and some European countries supported the rebels in the hope of getting rid of Assad who was a Russian and Iranian ally. They recognized a government in exile. Turkey opened its gates to Syrian refugees and provided sanctuary to the Syrian rebels. It also acted as a conduit for financial and military aid to the rebels. Saudi Arabia and Qatar began to provide financial and military aid to the rebels in the hope of getting rid of a Shia regime and establishing Sunni rule in Syria.

In August 2011, al-Baghdadi saw his opportunity and sent ISI fighters to Syria. Their task was to establish an ISI organization inside the country. This group began to recruit fighters and establish cells throughout Syria. On January 2012, the group announced its association with other Islamic rebels to form the al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front grew rapidly into a capable fighting force. ISI thus established a large presence in Sunni majority areas of Syria, in the districts of Ar-Raqqah, Idlib, Dier ez-Zor and Alleppo.

Tension between Free Syrian Army (FSA) and ISI surfaced in September 2013 when ISI captured two border towns from FSA forces. In January 2014, the FSA and the Islamic Front launched an offensive against ISI in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. They even managed to take Ar-Raqqah but could not hold it against ISI counter attack. By February 2014, the Al-Nusra Front joined the battle in support of FSA and other Islamic Front rebel forces against ISI. Together they expelled ISI from the Deir ez-Zor and Idlib Provinces. By March, the ISI forces had retreated from the Idlib Province and even evacuated some towns they had captured from FSA. They choose to concentrate around Ar-Raqqah to defend it. Al-Qaeda cut all ties with ISI on 3 February 2014. ISI established its headquarters at Ar-Raqqah and soon annexed territories from FSA and the Islamic Front. It came to control large tracts of Syrian territory up to Syria-Iraq border.

Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) is Formed

The last US troops withdrew from Iraq in 2011. Al-Maliki now intensified his anti Sunni policies. He excluded Sunnis from government jobs. Next he turned against Sunni politicians, first his vice president Tareq al-Hashem and then Finance minister Rafei al-Issawi. This led to peaceful Sunni protests in many towns. Al-Maliki adopted a tough posture. There was firing on demonstrators at Hawija killing about 50 Sunni demonstrators. The alienation of Sunnis was now complete. Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) seemed to be the only hope for honourable life for Sunnis. Having gained ground in and established itself in Syria, ISI became more active in Iraq.

In July 2012, al-Baghdadi declared the start of a new offensive in Iraq called "Breaking the Walls". It aimed at freeing members of ISI and Saddam's army personnel held in Iraqi prisons. Car bombs and suicide attacks in Iraq increased. By July 2013, monthly fatalities in Iraq exceeded 1,000 for the first time since April 2008. The ISI campaign to free imprisoned ISI members culminated in July 2013, with the group carrying out simultaneous raids on Taji and Abu Gharib prisons. More than 500 prisoners, many of them veterans of the Iraqi insurgency, were freed.

Anbar Province of Iraq adjoins Syria and is mostly populated by Sunni Tribes and Sunni Muslims. These elements were disenchanted by the Shia dominated Nouri al Maliki led Iraqi Government and felt that they were being denied legitimate share in the government and the army. Large elements of Saddam Hussein's army that had been disbanded by the Americans after their victory were from this region. These elements were frustrated and sympathetic to ISI. The Iraqi Shiite government forces started to arrest suspected Sunni militants in Anbar Province after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011. Many Sunnis were killed. Sunni tribal leaders held anti-government rallies and demonstrations in Fallujah and Ramadi for one year from 21 December 2012 to 29 December 2013 demanding release of Sunni detainees and withdrawal of Iraqi Army from the cities in Anbar Province. Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki cracked down on them. This led the Sunni tribes to revolt. ISI took advantage of the situation and took over the insurgency. Iraqi forces were targeted all over Anbar Province.

ISI established its presence in the region by 2013. Clashes involving Sunni tribal militias and the ISI on one side and the Iraqi Army on the other broke out all over western Iraq in December 2013. By early January 2014, ISI militants successfully took control of the important towns of Fallujah and Ramadi, and brought much of Anbar Province under their control. ISI now became the Islamic State of Syria and the Levant (ISIL).

ISIL Captures Anbar Province

ISIL launched their offensive in Anbar Province in January 2014. ISIL militants took over several police stations in Fallujah on 3 January. They also entered Ramadi and deployed snipers. Iraqi Army attempted to re-enter Fallujah but failed. By 4 January, Fallujah was firmly in ISIL hands. Iraqi security forces along with some tribal fighters regained control of the centre of Ramadi on 6 January. However, clashes continued. By 8 January, ISIL had taken control of the Anbar cities of Fallujah, Karmah, Hit, Khaldiyah, Haditha, Qaim, Abu Gharib and parts of Ramadi. On 9 January, Iraqi security forces, backed by tanks, engaged in heavy fighting with ISIL militants in the Albubali area between Ramadi and Fallujah. Heavy fighting continued in Ramadi with localities changing hands. On 16 January, the Iraqi army, backed by Sunni tribesmen, managed to retake the city of Saqlawiyah in a counterattack against ISIL. Iraq used its air force in an attempt to retake Ramadi. The Iraqi army and police, with the support of pro-government militias, launched another unsuccessful offensive against ISIL in Ramadi and Fallujah on 1st February 2014. Iraqi Security Forces recaptured Ramadi and parts of Fallujah on 16 March after heavy fighting. On 13 April, pro-government tribal fighters took control of the Fallujah Dam. ISIL regained full control of Fallujah by April end. On 9 May, the Iraqi forces launched another offensive and by 18 May, they regained control of the international expressway east of Fallujah and captured 16 villages and towns around the city.

The Iraqi Army began an offensive against the ISIL in Anbar Province in March 2014 with the stated goal of bringing the region under government control. Samarra and Ramadi were recaptured by Iraqi forces by 4 June 2014. Heavy shelling on Fallujah weakened the ISIL forces there. However, the ISI brought in reinforcements from Syria and retained their hold on much of the province. In mid June 2014, ISIL captured the Trabil crossing on the Jordan-Iraq border, the only border crossing between the two countries.

ISIL went on the offensive in June 2014. An Iraqi Border Patrol battalion was decimated. On 15 June, ISIL recaptured Saqlawiyah. On 19 June, they captured Saddam Hussein's Chemical Weapons Facility near Lake Tharthar roughly 60 km northwest of Baghdad and Al Qaim on Iraq Syria border. Two days later they captured the towns of Rawa, Ana and Huseiba. The Iraqi army's regional command headquarters near Rawa and Ana had been surrounded and much of Ramadi was reported to be under ISIL control. An entire Iraqi brigade was reportedly destroyed in the Al-Qaim area. On 25 June, ISIL forces advanced towards the Haditha Dam, the second-largest in Iraq, and reached Burwana, on the eastern side of Haditha. Government forces engaged them in an attempt to halt their advance. By the end of June, most of Anbar Province was firmly in ISIL hands.

Capture of Mosul and Tikrit

In early June, 2014, ISIL began advancing into central and northern parts of Iraq. The military chief of ISIL was killed during the advance near Mosul. But the advance continued. On June 4, 2014, ISIL convoys of pickup trucks (each truck having four fighters) entered Mosul. The outer defences of Mosul were supposed to be manned by 2,500 soldiers. In reality there were only about 500. It seems that all the operational tanks had been shifted to Anbar Province for its recapture. So there was no armour left in the city to fight ISIL. The attackers hanged, shot, set ablaze and crucified some of the Iraqi soldiers that surrendered to them. On 6 June, ISIL entered the city and attacked its north western part. The ISIL force was of about 1,500 soldiers. They were outnumbered by their Iraqi counterpart by 15 to 1. Yet they prevailed. ISIL used suicide bombers and car bombs to cause casualties to the Iraqi forces. On 8th June, about a hundred vehicles carrying at least four hundred men entered the city. Sleeper cells which were hidden in the city were activated and according to police, many Sunni citizens rallied to them.

On 9 June, ISIL and Sunni militants launched another attacked Mosul. There was some heavy fighting overnight. Iraqi Army soldiers then abandoned their positions and fled the city. By midday on 10 June much of Mosul was under ISIL control. The militants seized numerous facilities, including the Mosul International Airport, which had served as a hub for the U.S. military in the region. Militants captured the helicopters present at the airport, and a military base in south Saladin Province. The Iraqi army, though far larger in strength, crumbled in the face of the ISIL assault. This is evident from the fact that the soldiers left their weapons and dressed in civilian clothes to blend with the ordinary people. The city finally fell to the ISIL on 10 June 2014 after four days of battle. The collapse of the Iraqi Army at Mosul astonished many. It establishes once again that the size of an army or its advanced weaponry does not ensure victory. The quality of leadership and will to fight are most important ingredients for victory on the battle field. Iraqi Army was Shia dominated, poorly led by corrupt officers, inexperienced, incompetent and lacked motivation to fight. The residents of Mosul detested them and called them "Maliki's sons", Safavids and the "Army of Iran".

ISIL members seized the Turkish consulate in Mosul and kidnapped 49 Turkish employees, including the Consul General, three children, and several members of the Turkish Special Forces. Reports suggested that the abducted were taken to a nearby militant base and were unharmed. An unnamed Turkish official confirmed that the Turkish government was in contact with the insurgents. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held an emergency meeting with members of the National Intelligence Agency to discuss the situation. The daring assault came a day after 28 Turkish truck drivers were abducted by militants while delivering fuel to a power plant in Mosul. ISIL soon released all Turkish prisoners unharmed. This largesse on part of ISIL points to a secret understanding between Turkey and ISIL.

On 9 June, ISIL attacked Tikrit. It executed members of security forces who were captured in Tikrit. By that time, only one battalion of Iraqi Army was fighting the attackers. The rest of the Iraqi forces had either run away or joined the opposition. ISIL insurgents took full control of the city of Tikrit, the hometown of former president Saddam Hussein on the evening of June 11. It was the second provincial capital to fall in two days. Local officials reported that checkpoints had been set up around the city, while at least 300 inmates had been freed from the city's prisons. Many of them were members of ISIL or Saddam Hussein's army who were serving sentences under terrorism charges.

ISIL captured Mosul by 10 June, 2014 and seized large swathes of territory in Iraq. They also captured a compound containing huge quantities of US origin heavy weapons, ammunition and equipment. They brought some of the captured weapons and equipment into Syria and fresh recruits and launched a fresh offensive against FSA, Islamic Front, Al-Nusra and Assad's forces.

Battle of Baiji

On June 11, ISIL insurgents advanced into the oil refinery town of Baiji. The militants, who were travelling in a group of around 60 vehicles, took control of the Baiji prison and freed all the inmates. Militants retreated from Baiji after reinforcements from the Iraqi Army's Fourth Armoured Division arrived in the city. However, the Iraqi Army was not able to evict ISIL forces from Baiji City and Refinery. The ISIL was firmly in control of the town and refinery at the end of June, 2014.

ISIL Becomes Islamic State (IS)

On 29 June 2014, ISIL which now controlled a large swathe of territory in Iraq and Syria proclaimed itself to be a Worldwide Caliphate. Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi was named its Caliph. The group renamed itself the "Islamic State" (IS). As a "Caliphate", it claims religious, political and military authority over all Muslims worldwide. The concept of a Caliphate and the name "Islamic State" has been rejected by governments and Muslim leaders worldwide. However, many Islamic Salafist militant groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria, Abu Sayyaf in Philippines and Ansar Bait al-Maqdis of Sinai, Egypt recognized the Caliphate and swore allegiance to it. Thousands of foreign fighters from US, Europe, Russia, Australia and many Muslim nations joined IS in Syria and Iraq. In September 2014, the group began kidnapping people for ransoming.

World's Response

The fall of Mosul and Tikrit and the total collapse of the Iraqi Armed Forces stunned the world. The Iraqi Government itself was in crisis. Elections had been held in 2014 but a new government was yet to be formed. Nouri al-Maliki wanted a third term as prime minister. He asked his parliament to declare a state of emergency that would give him additional powers. Parliament refused. He turned to the US for help. But the US called for his sacking as the Iraqi prime minister, formation of a new inclusive government with Sunni and Kurd participation and drastic reforms in the armed forces. Iraqi government hesitated and even bought a few Sukhoi jet fighters from Russia. But when the fall of Baghdad became a real possibility, Maliki capitulated. Preconditions laid down by the US were accepted. Al-Maliki stepped down. Consensus candidate Haider al-Abadi took over as new prime minister in August 2014. President Obama authorized the return of US Forces to Iraq in an effort to halt the advance of IS, but only in the form of aerial support and some trainers.

IS Consolidates in Iraq

IS Forces beheaded an American journalist, James Foley in August 2014. Despite US bombings and breakthroughs on the political front, Iraq remained in chaos. Sectarian violence continued unabated. IS took control of strategic crossing points with Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Jordan and Saudi Arabia moved troops to their borders with Iraq.

Northern Iraq

On 5 June 2014, IS forces attacked and captured parts of the city of Samarra. The insurgents had reached to within 2 km from the Al-Ashkari Mosque which was defended by Iraqi forces, Shia militia and some elements of Iranian Qods forces. Government reinforcements were sent from Baghdad and managed to regain control of the city. Samarra remained surrounded by IS forces. On 8 June, IS forces attacked and captured the Kurdish town of Jalula. At the same time, they advanced to areas east of Mosul and captured Hawija, Zab, Riyadh and Abbasi areas west of the city of Kirkuk and Rashad and Yankaja to its south. There was no resistance from the Iraqi forces.

On 13 June, Iraqi government forces abandoned the town of Kirkuk. Kurdish Pashmerga forces advanced and took over the city of Kirkuk before IS could capture it. Ten tanks and dozens of Humvee vehicles that had been abandoned by the Iraqi Army were taken over by Kurdish forces. On 13 June Kurdish forces recaptured Jalula from IS forces.

On 23 June, IS forces captured the Tal Afar airport and town in northern Iraq. The offensive resulted in 100,000 Iraqi Christians being driven from their homes. They also captured Sinjar city and surrounding villages. The Yazdis, a Shia sect living around Sinjar suffered inhuman atrocities. Over 200,000 Yazidi civilians were driven from their homes. 5,000 Yazidi men were massacred and over 5,000 Yazidi women enslaved. 50,000 of Sinjar's Yazidis had taken refuge in the adjacent Sinjar Mountains where they lacked food, water and other basic necessities. 35,000 to 45,000 of them could be evacuated within weeks with the help of US Special Forces and Kurdish PKK and Peshmerga forces. A subsequent Kurdish and Iraqi Special forces counter attack supported by US air strikes recaptured the Mosul Dam and several other towns by 18 August.

Baghdad and Diyalia

On 12 June, IS forces continued their advance towards Baghdad. Most of the Iraqi troops left their positions and withdrew towards the town of Khalis in Diyala Province. On 15 June, Islamic State advanced further into Diyala Province. By 18 June, IS fighters seized Saadiyah and Jalawla in Diyala Province, after Iraqi security forces abandoned their posts.

In October 2014, IS dispatched 10,000 militants from Syria and Mosul to capture Baghdad. Iraqi Army and Anbar tribesmen put up only token resistance and fled. By 13 October, IS fighters had advanced to within 25 km of Baghdad Airport. They were prevented from making further gains by a combined force of Iraqi Army and Shia militias with air support from the US led coalition. However, Islamic State continues car bomb and suicide attacks in Baghdad directed at killing Shia civilians.

Anbar Province

In late September and early October 2014, IS launched an offensive aimed at fully occupying Anbar province. Between 14 and 22 September, they successfully captured Saqlawiyah. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers were captured and executed. On 4 October, IS seized the town of Kubaysah and Hit. On 23 October, IS forces seized the village of Albu Nimr after overcoming weeks of fierce resistance by its Sunni tribe. Between 28 October and 10 November, the IS forces killed over 1000 members of the Sunni tribes who opposed it and fought on the side of the Iraqi government.

Government Counter Offensive in Iraq

Second Battle for Baiji

On 7 November, 2014, Iraqi forces launched an offensive to retake control of the strategic city Baiji from IS. A see saw battle ensued. On 21 December, IS recaptured the city of Baiji and managed to re-establish a siege of the Baiji Oil Refinery. On 23 December 2014, Iraqi forces and Shiite militia fighters launched an assault on the city of Baiji with air support and managed to retake parts of the city. In early March 2015, some Iraqi troops were withdrawn for capture of Tikrit. IS fighters took advantage of this withdrawal and launched a fresh offensive on Baiji and retook most of the city. Fighting and air attacks continued around Baiji throughout March and April. On 14 April, hundreds of IS reinforcements arrived from Ar-Raqqah and launched another offensive. The US led Coalition escalated its air strikes in the region to keep IS State forces in check. The see saw battle continued through out April, May and June. By the end of June, Iraqi Security Forces and Shia militia, with aid from US led Coalition air strikes had fully recaptured the city. However, the Baiji Oil Refinery remained contested. A small number of IS sleepers were still hiding inside Baiji city and its refinery, ambushing Iraqi fighters and hampering the cleanup process with guerrilla attacks and suicide bombings. As of July 2015, IS was in control of several parts of Baiji city and the refinery. Clashes between the Iraqi Security Force and IS were still going on.

First Battle of Tikrit

IS had captured Tikrit about the same time as Mosul. The first attempt by the Iraqi Army to retake Tikrit took place between 26 and 30 June 2014. The Iraqi forces launched an airborne assault on Tikrit. The commandos were flown into a stadium at the city's university. One of the helicopters was shot down and crash landed at the stadium. Another crash landed in enemy territory. Fierce fighting then ensued around the university compound. Iranian trained Shiite militiamen were dispatched to assist the commandos. Air attacks were carried out on the city every day. On 28 June, helicopter gun ships conducted dawn air strikes against IS forces who were attacking Iraqi troops at the university. An all out ground offensive was launched on 28 June in an attempt to capture the city. Heavy fighting continued to rage on the city outskirts during the night but Tikrit remained under IS control. On 30 June, government forces attempted to move out of Camp Speicher air base and link up with troops at the university but failed. The Iraqi Army's attempt to take back Tikrit had failed.

On 15 July, the military launched a new assault on Tikrit from Awja. Soldiers and militiamen quickly entered the city and seized the city's hospital against light opposition. Militants were reportedly retreating. However, IS militants sprung an ambush with suicide bombers. Government troops suffered heavy casualties and retreated from the city. On 17 July 2014, IS forces launched an assault on Camp Speicher air base, where an estimated 700 government soldiers and 150 Iraqi Shiite militiamen were besieged. The assault included snipers and suicide bombers. IS forces managed to reach the runway and over ran the final pockets of resistance. The air base fell to the IS forces. All of the government forces were ether killed or captured and executed.

Second Battle of Tikrit

Iraqi Forces began their second attempt to retake Tikrit on 2 March 2015. The attempt was preceded by months of preparation and intelligence gathering. The offensive was the largest operation undertaken by the Iraqi Armed forces to date. It involved some 30,000 Iraqi forces including about 20,000 Shia militias. An estimated 13,000 IS fighters were reported to be defending Tikrit. 90 per cent of the residents of the city had left it to escape the fighting. The final stage of the assault was conducted by some 4,000 Iraqi Security Forces in conjunction with approximately 10,000 Shia militias. Many Shia militias were withdrawn from the battle at the request of the Sunni Tribes on 27 March. Only the Badr Organization was allowed to participate in the final stages of the battle. US led coalition carried out carpet bombing of Islamic State targets in and around Tikrit for three days from 26 to 28 March. American led air strikes played a major role in softening up the enemy defences. The city was captured after about a month of heavy fighting on 4 April 2015. However, pockets of resistance remained. Combing operations continued till 17 April when the city was declared safe for residents to return. Cleaning up and defusing over 5000 booby traps and explosive devices continued for some more time. Some acts of vengeance were committed by some Shiite militias. IS forces had made thorough preparations for defending the city. They planted IEDs on all the streets, buildings, bridges and houses. It was house to house urban warfare. There were two tunnels connecting the Islamic State defences on the outskirts with the city centre. Casualties were heavy on both sides.

Tikrit is the only instance when Iraqi Security Forces was able to recapture a major town captured by IS. The real credit for this should go to the Shia militias and US led air strikes. However, the distrust between the Sunni population and tribes and the Shia militia was palpably visible during the battle.

Battle for Anbar Province

The US started arming the Iraqi Army with anti tank missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in 2015. Anti tank missiles were necessary to destroy car bombs. UAVs increased reconnaissance capabilities. Iran also offered support. After victory at Tikrit, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced the launch of an offensive to remove IS Forces from the Anbar Province on 8thApril. Iraqi Government forces, Iraqi Police, Shia militias and some Sunni tribal elements launched the Al-Karmah offensive in April 2015. The offensive began on 14 April 2015 and captured part of the Al-Karmah city. IS retaliated by attacking Ramadi and capturing three nearby villages on 15 April. They took control of the Tharthar Dam on 24 April.

On 14 May, 2015, IS forces launched an assault on the Ramadi city using armoured bulldozers. 10 suicide bombers burst through the main gate. They captured the police headquarters, government buildings and the Ramadi Great Mosque. They appeared unhindered by US led Coalition air strikes. Ramadi was in their hands by 15 May. The attack on Ramadi prompted 114,000 people to flee the region increasing the total number of refugees from Anbar since 2014 to over 400,000 people. The brunt of the fighting in Anbar has been done by Iraqi police forces backed by local wealthy Sunni tribes who have been reluctant to permit the Iraqi Security forces or the Shiite militia brigades to enter Ramadi because of the historical animosity between the Sunni and the Shia.

According to a report by current and former American officials, IS fighters used a sandstorm to help seize a critical military advantage in the early hours of the terrorist group's attack on Ramadi. The sandstorm prevented American warplanes from launching air strikes to help the Iraqi forces. Without air support Iraqi security forces fled. Once the storm subsided, IS and Iraqi forces were intermingled in heavy combat in many areas, making it difficult for allied pilots to distinguish between the two sides. A stalemate has been reached in Anbar. The Iraqi forces have failed to recapture Ramadi and Fallujah to date.

US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter has criticised the Iraqi forces saying that they showed no will to fight against IS militants. Iraqi Government blames the US for the state of affairs saying that US is not providing the Iraqi army with proper equipment, weapons and aerial support. The Iraqi government admitted that the fall of Ramadi was due to mismanagement and poor planning by some senior military commanders in charge. The US wants to support local Sunni self defence forces. They are training and equipping of local tribes and supporting a Sunni led operation to retake Ramadi. The US government has agreed to provide the Iraqi forces with 1,000 anti tank missile systems especially in order to be able combat against the massive suicide car bombings. All efforts by the Iraqi Government to recapture Ramadi and Faluja have been repelled by the IS with heavy casualties.

Islamic State Consolidates in Syria

IS is reported to have recruited more than 6,300 fighters in July 2014 alone. The Islamic State controlled a third of Syria in the summer of 2015. It established itself as the dominant force of Syrian opposition after defeating al-Nusra Front in Deir ez-Zor Province and establishing control over most of Syria's oil and gas production.

IS took control of the Shaar oil field in Syria in July 2014 and also captured a number of Syrian Army bases near Ar-Raqqah. In August 2014, IS took a number of towns and villages from FSA and Islamic Front rebels in Aleppo Province. Meanwhile, IS forces in Raqqah laid siege on Tabaq airbase of the Syrian Army and captured it with a few fighter aircrafts. Two of these fighters were later shot down by the Syrian air force. Another airbase of the Syrian Army in Aleppo Province was also attacked but it held off the attack. The Sunni Shaitat tribe revolted against IS south of Deir ez-Zor city in August 2014. Over 700 of them including women and children were captured and executed.

American jets began bombing IS in Syria in September 2014. Syrian air force also carried out a large number of attacks on IS targets. In October 2014 IS launched an attack on Kobane Town on the Turkish border and captured most of it. Kobane was bravely defended by Kurdish YPG militia with the aid of US air strikes and military and logistic support from the Syrian Army. After three months of bitter fighting, the Kurdish YPG forced IS forces in Kobane to retreat in January 2015. The recapture of Kobane is one of the rare victories against IS forces in Syria.

In May 2015, IS forces took control of Palmyra, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Syria, after eight days of fighting. They also captured a number of nearby towns as well as several oil fields. Following the capture of Palmyra, IS conducted mass executions in Palmyra area, killing an estimated 200 to 300 civilians and soldiers. IS has planted explosives and mines around the ancient city of Palmyra as a defensive measure. By early June, 2015, IS forces reached the town of Hassia, which lies on the main road from Damascus to Homs and Latakia. They launched a surprise attack on Kobane and killed 120 residents before they were forced out by Kurdish YPG fighters. They also targeted government held parts of Al-Hasakah city. The IS offensive on Al-Hasakah displaced over 60,000 people.

Government Counter Offensive in Syria

The Syrian government did not begin to fight IS until June 2014. The Syrian Government does not have the forces to carry out any major attack on the IS. It is hard pressed to hold on to the areas which they are in control of. All they have been able to do is to carry out occasional air attacks and provide fire support, logistic support and weapons to Kurdish YPK who is fighting to retake their lands from the IS. Russian intervention n support of the Syrian Government in October 2015 has changed to balance of power. But the government offensive is directed at consolidating their hold on Alllepo, Latakia, Homs, Hamma and Idlib Provinces.

Battle of Kobane

In September 2014, the IS Forces launched an offensive to try to capture the border town of Kobane (also known as Ayn al-Arab) in the Rojova or Western Kurdistan region. The Rojova region consists of three cantons or districts namely Kobane, Jazira and Afrin. By 2 October 2014, IS had succeeded in capturing over 350 Kurdish villages. By January 2015, a total of about 400,000 Kurds had fled into Turkey.

The Kurdish People's Protection Group (YPG) tried to defend the region with the US coalition providing air support. On 27 January 2015, the YPG defenders of the city along with FSA and Peshmerga reinforcements and supported by US led Coalition air strikes, were able to retake the city. However, most of the remaining villages in the Kobane district remained under IS control.

After recapturing Kobane, Kurdish YPG fighter assisted by air strikes recaptured over a 100 villages in rural Kobane after four months of fighting. By 2 February, IS forces had withdrawn 25 km from the city of Kobane. By late April 2015, IS had lost almost all of the villages it had captured in the Kobane Canton. But it held on to villages it had captured in the north western part of the Ar-Raqqah Province.

Battles in Hasakah Province

In February 2014, IS launched a major offensive into Jazira district of Hasakah Province in north east Syria. The area is a part of Syrian Kurdistan. By December, IS forces had captured all areas south of Al-Hasaka town and a large area to the east right up to Iraq border including Yarubiah-Rabia border crossing.Kurdish YPG forces aided by coalition air strikes started an offensive in February 2015 and recaptured Jazira district. The Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq shelled IS positions across the border, in coordination with the YPG. IS launched a massive counter attack with around 3,000 fighters and tanks. Bitter fighting continued with casualties on both sides. By end February, Kurdish fighters managed to capture 103 villages and the town of Tal Hamis and Tell Brak. In March fierce clashes between IS and the YPG erupted to the east of Al-Hasakah city. IS attempts to recapture Tell Tamer was repulsed. By 10 March Jazira district had been retaken. Attacks and counter attacks continued throughout March. Syrian government forces in Hasakah province launched their own offensive against IS forces and by 30 March, the National Defence Forces (NDF) reportedly captured a large number of villages in rural Al-Hasakah.

Islamic State in Libya

IS divides Libya into three historical provinces, claiming authority over Cyrenica in the east, Fezzan in the desert south, and Tripolitania, the area around Tripoli in the west. On 5 October 2014, the Shura Council of Islamic Youth and other Sunni militants in Libya joined IS and took over operations in the Cyrenaica Province. About 800 fighters are reported to be operating within Libya. The Libyan branch of IS has been the most active and successful out of all the IS branches outside of Iraq and Syria. They appear to be active mainly in the eastern urban centres of Derna and Benghazi. Derna became the first city outside Syria and Iraq to be a part of the "Islamic State Caliphate". On 4 January 2015, IS forces in Libya seized control of the eastern countryside of Sabha and executed 14 Libyan soldiers in the process. Later, an area encompassing the cities of Sirte, Nofolia, and military bases to the south of both cities came under IS control. On 16 February 2015, IS beheaded of 21 Egyptian Christians. This led to retaliatory air strikes by Egypt. By the end of that day, Egypt claimed to have killed 64 IS militants in Libya by the air strikes. However by early March, IS had captured additional Libyan territory, including a city to the west of Derna, additional areas near Sirte, a stretch of land in southern Libya, some areas around Benghazi, and an area to the east of Tripoli.

Libya does not have an effective government ever since NATO air campaign and military aid to rebels overthrew the government of Colonel Gaddafi. They have two governments one based at Benghazi and the other at Tripoli. The two were at war with each other. Better sense has prevailed. A cease fire is in place and a power sharing agreement is being worked out. Neither government is in a position to take on IS. Soon it may become too late. The whole of Libya may become a part of the Islamic Caliphate.

Boko Haram in Nigeria

Boko Haram's official name is "Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad", which in Arabic means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad". Locals of north east Nigerian state of Borno call it Boko Haram or "Western Education is forbidden". It promotes a version of Islam which forbids Muslims from taking part in any political or social activity associated with Western society including voting in elections, wearing shirts and trousers or receiving a secular education.

Boko Haram was founded in 2002. A violent internal power struggle between radical and moderates in 2009 ended in victory of the formers. It became active after a mass prison break in September 2010. It began to attack soft targets with raids and suicide attacks. The Nigerian government declared a state of emergency at the beginning of 2012 and extended it in the following year to cover the entire northeast of Nigeria. This resulted in an increase in both security force abuses and militant attacks. Boko Haram killed more than 13000 civilians between 2009 and 2015, including around 10,000 in 2014. Over 1.5 million people have been internally displaced by the violence. Corruption in the security forces and human rights abuses committed by them has hampered efforts to quell the unrest. Since 2009 Boko Haram have abducted more than 5000 men, women and children, including the kidnapping of 276 school girls from Chibok in April 2014.The Nigerian military have proved ineffective in countering the insurgency. Since mid 2014, Boko Haram has been in control of about 50,000 sq km of territory in and around their home state of Borno. Only its capital Maiduguri remains in Nigerian hands. In July 2014, Boko Haram recognized the Caliphate established by the IS and declared the territories held by it as a part of the Caliphate.

In 30 November 2014, a coalition force to fight Boko Haram was created. The force was to include 3,500 soldiers from Benin, Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. France and the UK, in coordination with the US, have sent trainers and material assistance to Nigeria to assist in the fight against Boko Haram. Israel, Canada and even China have pledged support. Joint military operations by Nigerian, Chadian and Cameroonian armed forces achieved some success. Boko Haram lost its capital Gwoza and some of its occupied territories. It is still in control of southern parts of Borno State and is carrying out suicide attacks at Abuja and other parts of Nigeria at will. They new Nigerian president sacked Nigerian Army and Air Force Chiefs for the poor performance of the Nigerian Armed Forces in July 2015. But the new dispensation has made little difference. As of date the terror attacks are continuing.

Islamic State in Yemen

In mid-January 2015, a Yemeni official said that IS had managed to recruit a number of members and suicide bombers in Yemen. In February 2015, it was reported that the majority of a group called Ansar al-Sharia had switched allegiance from al-Qaeda to Islamic State. These elements have carried out a number of suicide attacks on Shia Mosques and Houthi military check points. They have also carried out suicide attack in Aden on the Saudi backed Government of President Hadi and UAE army units deployed in Aden. But it is a long way from capturing and holding territory in Yemen.

Islamic State in Tunisia

IS has carried out two terrorist attacks on tourists in Tunisia. The first attack on the museum in Tunis killed 17. The second attack on a beach resort in June 2015 killed over 38 tourists and injured many more. The aim of the attacks seems to be to discourage foreign tourists from coming to Tunisia. Tunisia depends on tourism for earning foreign exchange and a hit on the tourist industry will hit the countries finances. This in turn will lead to economic and political instability. IS thrives on political instability as instability helps it to oust secular governments and bring in Islamic fundamentalists to power. A large number of Tunisians are fighting for IS in Iraq and Syria. So carrying out such attacks is not too much of a logistical problem for IS.

Islamic State in Egypt

The Sinai Peninsula of Egypt has long been known for its lawlessness. It served as a smuggling route for weapons and supplies into Gaza. Provisions in the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979 have limited the presence of Egyptian security forces in the area. This enables militants to operate freely. Islamist militants started the conflict in the Sinai Peninsula after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. The militants largely consisted of local Bedouin tribesmen. These tribesmen had suffered decades of neglect and were alienated from the Egyptian government. They exploited the chaotic situation in Egypt to launch a series of attacks on government forces in Sinai.

In November 2014, a militant group called Ansar Bait al-Maqdis took control of the insurgency. The group declared allegiance to the IS and proclaimed themselves as the "Sinai Province" of the Islamic Caliphate. Ansar Bait al-Maqdis is in control of about a third of the villages in Sinai, mainly in northern Sinai. Militants intensified their attacks on Egyptian security forces since the ouster of Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013. They appear to be retaliating against the present government's crackdown on Morsi's supporters and stopping smuggling into Gaza. Morsi supporters are members of Muslim Brotherhood and hence recognized Islamists. Radicals among them are prime targets for recruitment to fight for the IS. The attacks come in the form of car bombs, IEDs, suicide attacks and assaults on check posts, police stations and troops on the move. The group considers Egyptian troops infidels because they obey a "secular government". Egypt has increased its military presence in the Sinai in consultation with Israel, destroyed over 300 smuggling tunnels on Gaza border and created a km wide buffer zone along Gaza border. But they are unable to stop militant attacks.

The militants use four wheel drive vehicles and combinations of light and heavy weaponry. RPG-7 grenade launchers capable of penetrating armoured vehicles, brick walls and doors are used. Ansar Bait al-Maqdis has claimed downing a military helicopter with a surface-to-air missile and killing its entire crew in North Sinai, near the border with Gaza.On 16 February 2014, a bomb exploded under a tour bus of a South Korean church group in the Egyptian city of Taba which borders Israel in South Sinai. The bombing presents worrying new evidence that militants were broadening their campaign against civilians in Sinai. On 24 October 2014, 31 army and police personnel were killed in North Sinai. The attack was the largest ever since the start of the war on terror in Sinai. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi declared a state of emergency as a result of the attack. Members from the Al-Tarabin tribe in North Sinai are pro government and have attacked Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis positions in Rafah. On 16 May 2015, three Egyptian judges and their driver were killed when gunmen opened fire on their vehicle in North Sinai. The attack came hours after a Cairo court issued a preliminary death sentence against former president Mohamed Morsi and 105 other defendants on a range of charges, including murder. On 9 June 2015, militants fired rockets at the direction of an airport in Sinai used by the multinational peacekeeping forces. On 1 July 2015, IS affiliated militants launched one of the largest attacks ever on Egyptian army checkpoints in Sinai killing many soldiers. Militants have reportedly killed several civilians who refused to allow them onto their rooftops to target security forces. On 16 July 2015, IS affiliated militants attacked an Egyptian navy patrol ship near the border with Israel and the Gaza Strip. The patrol ship was hit by a guided missile. The attack is considered the first maritime attack by the IS and its allied militant groups. Almost daily clashes with militants in North Sinai are reported by the army. In October 2015, IS claimed to have shot down a Russian airliner over Sinai which crashed killing 225 passengers. Experts speculate that they had managed to smuggle in a bomb.

Ansar Bait al-Maqdis has also carried out a number of attacks in mainland Egypt. On 24 December 2013, sixteen people were killed and over a hundred people were injured in a huge bomb blast which hit the Daqahliya Security Directorate in Mansoura. On 5 August 2014, 5 policemen were killed in an attack on a police car on Matrouh road in Cairo. On 28 November 2014, two army personnel were killed in Cairo and Qaliubiya. On 1 December 2014, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis claimed responsibility for killing a United States citizen in Egypt's western desert. On 26 December 2014, two Ansar Bait al-Maqdis militants were killed in a gunfight in El-Salam City, on the eastern outskirts of Cairo. On 11 July 2015, a car bomb exploded near the Italian consulate in Cairo, killing one person and injuring nine others. The IS has claimed responsibility for the attack. The Egyptian pipeline carrying natural gas to Jordan has been attacked at least 15 times since the start of the uprising in early 2011. The el-Sisi Government of Egypt is indulging in ruthless repression of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Thus Muslim Brotherhood hardliners are likely to seek support from the IS to save them and help achieve their common goal of an Islamic Caliphate.

Islamic State in Afghanistan

In January 2015, Afghan officials confirmed that IS had a military presence in Afghanistan and had recruited many militants and suicide bombers. However, some of these militants were either captured or killed by the Taliban. IS aim in Afghanistan seems to be to widen sectarian divisions by targeting Shias, destabilizing the present government and replacing it with a fundamentalist Islamic one. They would also like to take possession of large stockpiles of weapons and ammunitions which the Americans have left behind for use by the Afghan Army and the lucrative opium trade. It has been reported that the Afghan warlord, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has joined IS in Afghanistan along with his followers. A power struggle between the Taliban and IS appears inevitable.

Islamic State in Europe

IS considers most European nations as enemies. Publication of cartoons on Prophet Mohammad and the support of European Governments for the action has angered Muslims all over the world. IS is no exception. Britain and France are taking part in the air campaign against IS and have sent contingents of their armed forces to train Iraqi government forces and militias. In late January 2015, it was revealed that IS members have infiltrated into EU and disguised themselves as civilian refugees who were emigrating from the war zones of Libya, Sudan, Iraq and the Syria. An IS representative boasted that IS had successfully smuggled 4,000 fighters into Europe and that the smuggled fighters were planning attacks in Europe in retaliation for the air strikes carried out against IS targets in Iraq and Syria. However, experts believe that the claim of 4,000 was exaggerated to boost their stature and spread fear. But they acknowledged that some Western countries were aware of the infiltration. The attacks in Paris on 13 November 2015 prove that IS has a presence in Europe.

Islamic State in Algeria

Members of the militant group Jund al-Khilafah swore allegiance to IS in September 2014. IS terrorists gained notoriety in Algeria when it beheaded French tourist Herve Gourdel in September 2014. But since then, the group has largely been silent. Reports suggest that its leader was killed by Algerian Security forces in December 2014. IS presence in Algeria is not significant as of now.

Islamic State in Saudi Arabia

IS claims to have some members in Saudi Arabia. In fact over 700 Saudi citizens are fighting for IS in Iraq and Syria. Saudi Arabia is the fountain head of Salafist (fundamentalist) Islamic ideology. It is also the only country in the world other than IS that follows barbaric Sharia laws. The enmity between the Saudi Royal family and IS does not stem from ideology but desire to be the Caliph of the Caliphate. IS elements have carried out suicide attacks on Shia mosques in some cities of Saudi Arabia in an attempt to create a sectarian problem in the country in the hope of destabilizing the rule of the House of Saud. Recently, Saudi Forces arrested about 250 Islamic State sympathizers and recovered a large cache of arms and ammunitions. Though a possible attack has been aborted, the incident indicates that IS is trying to get a toe hold into Saudi Arabia. If it succeeds in toppling the House of Saud, it would be a great setback for the Western Powers.

Ideology

IS follows an extreme interpretation of Islam. It promotes religious violence, and regards those who do not agree with its interpretations as infidels or apostates. IS's philosophy is represented by the symbolism in the Black Standard variation of the legendary battle flag of Muhammad that it has adopted. The flag shows the Seal of Muhammad within a white circle, with the phrase above it, "There is no God but Allah". Islamic State claims that it represents the restoration of the caliphate of early Islam, with all the political and religious ramifications that this would imply. The leaders of the IS are open about their almost exclusive commitment to the Salafist movement of Sunni Islam.

It is reported that all 12 of the judges who preside over court system in the IS capital of Ar-Raqqah are Saudis. Saudi Wahhabi practices followed by the group include the establishment of religious police to root out "vice" and enforce attendance at "salat" prayers, the widespread use of capital punishment, and the destruction or alternate use of any non Sunni religious buildings.

IS religious leaders aim to return to the early days of Islam, rejecting all changes in the Islamic religion made in the intervening centuries, which it believes corrupts its original spirit. It condemns later caliphates and the Ottoman Empire for deviating from what it calls pure Islam. It seeks to revive the original Wahhabi project of the restoration of the caliphate governed by strict Salafist doctrine. IS believes it will defeat the army of "Rome" at the battle for the town of Dabiq in fulfilment of prophecy. Dabiq is a town in northern Syria located northeast of Aleppo. The town is the site of the decisive battle of Marj Dabiq between the Ottoman Empire and the Mamluk Sultanate in 1516 which led to the establishment of the Ottoman Caliphate in 1517. In Islamic prophecy, it is believed that Dabiq is one of two possible locations for an epic battle between invading Christians and Muslims which will result in a Muslim victory and mark the beginning of the end of the world.

Leadership and Governance

IS is headed and run by the Caliph, with a cabinet of advisers. There are two deputy leaders, one each for Iraq and for Syria, and 12 local governors in Iraq and Syria. A third man is also believed to be the deputy leader of the group. Strangely, all three are believed to be ethnic Turks.

Beneath the leaders are councils on finance, leadership, military and legal matters. These councils take decisions on executions, recruitment of foreign fighters, security, intelligence and media. In addition, a Shura council has the task of ensuring that all decisions made by the governors and councils comply with the group's interpretation of Sharia Law. Majority of the IS's leadership is dominated by Iraqis. Many of them are former members of Saddam Hussein's government. It is considered that Iraqis and Syrians have been given greater precedence over other nationalities within IS due to the fact that the group depends on the loyalties of the local Sunni populations in both Syria and Iraq. Foreign fighters are given due importance and better pay and accommodation.

Ar-Raqqah in Syria is the headquarters of IS. Selection of Ar- Raqqah is puzzling because it is at a vulnerable corner of its empire in Syria and Iraq. Perhaps this is to coordinate and control the passage of foreign fighters, military and financial aid which passes through Turkey. Smuggled crude oil which finances a part of the IS activities also passes through Turkey. Ar-Raqqah has been under the total control of IS since September 2014. IS has built the structure of modern government in less than a year. Sunni former government servants from the Assad Government retained their jobs after pledging allegiance to IS. Institutions have been restored and restructured. They provided their respective services but as per IS policies. The Ar-Raqqah dam continues to provide electricity and water. Foreign expertise supplements Syrian officials in running civilian institutions. Only the police, and IS fighters are allotted confiscated accommodation previously owned by non-Sunnis and others who fled. Welfare services are provided, price controls established, and taxes imposed on the wealthy. IS runs soft power programs in the areas under its control in Iraq and Syria. These programs include social services like repairing roads, maintaining essential services and giving religious lectures. Despite being brutal in its dealings with offenders and non Sunnis, IS has become well entrenched among the population in areas they control.

Recruitment

It is astonishing that in spite of its brutal image, atrocities against captured enemies, women and non Sunnis, IS attracts followers from different parts of the world by promoting the image of holy war. All their recruits do not get combatant roles. There have been several cases of new recruits who expected to be Mujahedeen have returned from Syria and Iraq disappointed by the menial jobs like drawing water or cleaning toilets that had been assigned to them.

IS publishes material on the internet that is directed to women. Many Jihadists date women in UK, EU and US on the internet. Many women give up their comfortable lives and travel to Syria and Iraq to be a part of the holy war. It was reported on BBC that 43 British women travelled to Syria to join IS in June 2015. Although women are not allowed to take up arms, they are encouraged to play supportive roles within IS like providing first aid, cooking, nursing and sewing, and to become "good wives of jihad".

Conclusion

IS is a well organized, well led army of fanatical fighters ready to die for the glory of Islam. The only thing they are said to be afraid of is dying at the hands of Kurdish female fighters because it prevents them from going straight to heaven. IS has a clear aim of establishing an Islamic Caliphate in the traditional Arab heartland. It seems to be able to attract Salafist Jehadis from a large number of countries. It was initially funded by private sources in oil rich gulf countries. It got booty of 500 million dollars from banks in Mosul when it captured the city. Its other sources are revenues from oil smuggling, kidnapping foreigners for ransom, selling antiques they capture and taxing local businesses in areas under their control. It has support of Salafi Jihadists all around the world and sympathizers and sleeper cells almost all over the world. The US and other world powers have allowed it to grow to be a formidable force. US, its European allies along with Saudi money have created many militant organizations like Taliban in Afghanistan, FSA and Al Nusra Front in Syria. IS is also a product of the acts of omission and commission of US and its allies in Iraq and Syria. IS is poised to gain ground in Egypt and Libya, both parts of the earlier Islamic Caliphates. It is also likely to gain ground in Afghanistan and Libya. It will be interesting to see how the US and its allies can eliminate this Frankenstein they have created.

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Chapter 2: Understanding the Islamic State

On 29 June 2014, IS which controlled a large swathe of territory in Iraq and Syria proclaimed itself to be a Worldwide Caliphate. Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi was named its Caliph. To understand the full implications of this declaration, it is necessary for us to understand the terms "Islamic State" and "Caliphate".

An Islamic State is a type of government, in which the primary purpose of government is the enforcement of Sharia Law (Islamic law). Like the original caliphate, the IS is rooted in Islamic law. IS is modelled after the rule of Muhammad.

Caliphates of the Past

The term caliphate refers to the first system of government established by Muhammad in 622 CE under the Constitution of Medina. It represented the political unity of the Muslim nations. It did not always incorporate the entire religious community of Muslims. Khawarijites withdrew from Islam and Shias and Sufis were later excluded. After the death of Prophet Mohammad, the caliphate was led by Muhammad's disciples who were known as the Rightly Guided Caliphs (632-661 CE). The Arabian Empire significantly expanded under the Umayyad Caliphate (661-750) and the Abbasid Caliphate (750-1258). (MAP 1)After the third Caliph Uthman ibn Affan, a struggle for succession ensued between Caliph Ali and Muawiya, the governor of Syria and cousin of Uthman. The Khawarijites were with Ali at the Battle of Siffin (657) but mutinied against him. Ali defeated the remaining rebels in the Battle of Nahrawan (658). Some Khawarijites survived. One of them assassinated Caliph Ali at the Grand Mosque at Kufa. Kharijites, have survived into the present day. They form a significant part of the population of Oman and are found in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Zanzibar.

Map 1: Past Caliphates

The First or Rashidun Caliphate

The Rashidun Caliphate (‎632–661 CE) refers to the rule of the first four Caliphs. These Caliphs are called the "Rightly Guided" or Rashidun caliphs. The Caliphate was founded after Muhammad's death in 632. At its height, the Caliphate controlled a vast empire which included the Arabian Peninsula, Mesopotamia (Iraq), the Levant, the Caucasus region of Russia, Persia, Afghanistan and parts of North Africa from Egypt to present day Tunisia. It was the largest empire of its time. Religion of the Caliphate was Islam but other religions were tolerated. The Sunni-Shia split had not occurred at that stage. The capital was at Medina in Saudi Arabia from 632 to 656. It was shifted to Kufa in Iraq by the fourth Caliph and remained its capital from 656 to 661. Kufa is located about 170 km south of Baghdad close to Najaf.

The Second or Umayyad Caliphate

The Umayyad Caliphate was the second of the four major Islamic Caliphates. This caliphate was centred on the Umayyad dynasty hailing from Mecca. The Umayyad dynasty had first come to power under the third caliph, Uthman ibn Affan who ruled from 644 to 656. The Umayyad Caliphate was founded by Muawiya ibn Abi Sufyan, the long-time governor of Syria who prevailed in the power struggle that took place after the assassination of the fourth caliph, Ali. The Umayyads continued the Muslim conquests and expanded their empire to include the central Asian regions of modern day Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, southern Kyrgyzstan and southwest Kazakhstan, Maghreb (present day Algeria and Morocco) and the Iberian Peninsula (present day Spain and Portugal) into the Muslim world. At its greatest extent, the Umayyad Caliphate covered 15 million sq km making it the largest empire of its time. The religion of the Caliphate was Sunni Islam though other religions were tolerated. Christians held many important positions in the Caliphate. Damascus was the capital from 661 to 744 when the capital was shifted to Harran.

Third or Abbasid Caliphate

The Abbasid Caliphate was the third of the Islamic Caliphates. The Abbasid dynasty descended from Muhammad's youngest uncle, Abbas ibn Abd al-Muttalib. They came to power after wresting the authority of the Muslim empire from the Umayyads in 750 CE. The Abbasid caliphate first centred their government in Kufa, but in 762 the caliph Al-Mansur founded the city of Baghdad and shifted his capital there. The Abbasids were forced to cede authority over Maghreb and the Iberian Peninsula to the Umayyads, Morocco to the Idrisids, Tunisia to the Aghlabids and Egypt to the Shiite Caliphate of the Fatimids. The political power of the caliphate largely ended with the rise of the Buids and the Seljuq Turks. Although Abbasid leadership over the vast Islamic empire was gradually reduced to a ceremonial religious function, the dynasty retained control over its territories in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. The capital city of Baghdad became a center of science, culture, philosophy and invention during the Golden Age of Islam. The Caliphate ended in 1258 when Baghdad was sacked by the Mongols under Hulagu Khan and the Caliph was killed. State religion during the Abbasid Caliphate was Sunni Islam. The capital remained at Baghdad till 796 when it was shifted to Ar-Raqqah in Northern Syria (the present capital of IS). The capital returned to Baghdad in 809 and was shifted to Samara in 836. It returned to Baghdad in 892 and remained there till 1258.

The Fourth or Ottoman Caliphate

After 1258 there were two claimants for the title of Caliph, the head of remains of the Abbasid Empire and the Mamluk Sultanate of Cairo. The head of the Ottoman dynasty was just titled Sultan. Murad I was the first Ottoman Sultan to claim the title of Caliph in 1362. He claimed the title after conquering Edirne, a city and province of Turkey adjoining Greek and Bulgarian border. The city was later declared as the capital city of the Ottoman Empire. Subsequent Ottoman Sultans also claimed the title of Caliph. Salim I captured Mecca and Medina and defeated the Mamluk Sultanate of Cairo in the Battle of Dabiq in1517. He forced the contemporary Abbasid Caliph to surrender the title to him. The Ottoman Caliphs ruled over an empire that, at its peak, covered Greece, most of Middle East, Egypt and Libya, the Caucasus and the Balkan states of Eastern Europe.

European powers regrouped after the Peace of Westphalia and the Industrial Revolution and challenged Ottoman dominance. The Ottoman Empire could not prevent Europe's resurgence and gradually lost its position as the per-eminent power of its time. By the late nineteenth century, the problems of the Ottoman Caliphate had grown into crisis. The secular influence from the West weakened the influence of Islam over the society. Traditional Islamic laws were replaced with European laws. Territorial losses in conflicts such as the Russo-Turkish Wars substantially reduced Ottoman strength and influence. Caliph Abdul Hamid II tried to revive Islamic power but was thwarted in this by Western inclined military officers. By July 1906, the Ottoman Empire became a constitutional monarchy. Thus the Caliphate was stripped of its temporal authority. In 1911 Italy captured Libya from the Ottomans. In 1912 Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece formed an anti Ottoman alliance and launched a joint attack on the Ottoman Empire. The ensuing Balkan Wars forced the Ottomans out of Europe. In an effort to rebuild their fortunes, the Ottomans joined the Axis Powers in the World War I. The Axis Powers were defeated. Ottoman surrender was signed aboard a British warship on October 30, 1918. The Ottoman Empire was broken up into the present day Middle East countries. The Ottoman Caliphate was abolished under Mustafa Kemal Attaturk in 1924 as a part of his secular reforms.

Islamic Fundamentalists

Muslim Brotherhood

Muslim Brotherhood is a trans-national Islamic organization founded in Egypt by Islamic scholar Hassan al-Banna in 1928. Al-Banna believed the Qur'an and Sunnah lays down the perfect way of life of individuals, society and political organizations. He believed that Islamic governments must be based on this system and eventually unify as a caliphate. Born just four years after the abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate, the movement laid the foundation of the fifth Caliphate that IS has made a reality. The Brotherhood itself insists it is a peaceful, democratic organization and its leaders condemn violence. Al-Banna also urged Muslims all over the world to drive out British and other Western colonial influences and recreate a Caliphate stretching from Spain to Indonesia. The Brotherhood assures Muslims that Islam will bring social justice, eradicate poverty, corruption and sinful behaviour, and allow political freedom to the extent allowed under Islamic law. On the issue of women and gender equality, the Muslim Brotherhood calls for a conservative traditional dress code for women, modesty in public conduct, segregation of male and female students, a separate curriculum for women and prohibition of drinking, dancing and free mixing of sexes.

The organization gained supporters throughout the Muslim world with its model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work. The Muslim Brotherhood is not a political party. Its members have created political parties in several countries with sizable Muslim population, such as the Islamic Action Front in Jordan, Hamas in Palestine and Freedom and Justice Party in Egypt. It has produced many influential extremists and anti Semitic thinkers. Muslim Brotherhood has never attempted to create a branch for Shias. Some modern day extremists like Osama bin-Laden accuse it of betraying jihad.

The Brotherhood's goal is to in still the Qur'an and Sunnah in the conduct of the Muslim family, individual, community and state. The Qur'an is their Constitution. The Prophet is their leader. Jihad is their path to regain the glory of Islam and establish a caliphate. Its members are always ready to die for the glory Allah. It has been financed by Saudi Arabia for many years. Saudi Arabia and some other Muslim countries having monarchy or dictators are worried that the Brotherhood will try to replace them with elected governments. Hence they have declared members of Muslim Brotherhood to be terrorists. Many scholars consider Muslim Brotherhood as the fountain head of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism. It is considered a terrorist organization by the governments of Bahrain, Egypt, Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia and UAE. IS has accepted its vision of reviving the glory of Islam and establishing the Fifth Caliphate.

The Salafi Movement

The Salafi movement is an ultra-conservative movement within Sunni Islam. It originated in 855 CE with the teachings of Ahmad ibn-Hanbal. The doctrine of the movement is known as Salafism. Salafis want to emulate the Prophet Muhammad and his earliest followers in their daily life. They have a puritanical approach to Islam. (Christians also had their "Puritans" in Europe and America).They consider drinking smoking, dancing, singing, watching TV and free mixing of sexes to be sinful and against the tenets of Islam. They reject religious deviations and support the implementation of Sharia or Islamic law. The members of the movement can be divided into three categories: the "purists" who avoid politics; the "activists", who get involved in politics and the "Jihadists" who are always fighting non believers or enemies of Islam, particularly Shias, Christians and moderate Muslims. This group is growing all the time all over the world.

Non Muslims often think Salafism and Wahabisim as the same. But Salafis consider the Wahhabi ideology to be inferior to theirs. Salafis view their life style as an eternal model for all succeeding Muslim generations. They consider that their beliefs, method of worship, mannerisms, morality, piety and the Islam they practice is pure, and unadulterated. They are therefore, the ultimate authority for the interpretation of the Sunnah. Salafis believe that Muslim life should be guided by the Quran, the Hadith and the consensus of Ulama (acknowledged scholars of Islam). Salafis condemn certain practices such as the worship of or belief in multiple deities usually assembled into a pantheon of gods and goddesses, along with their own religions and rituals. They also condemn intercession with Allah by religious figures, venerating the graves of Islamic prophets and saints or using amulets to seek protection of God. These practices are common among Sufis and Shias.

Salafi jihadism is an extreme form of Sunni Islam that rejects democracy and Shia rule. The Salafi Jihadist group called the Caucasus Emirate believed that jihad is the only way to advance the cause of Allah on the earth. They took on the mighty Russian Government in Chechnya and Dagestan. Chechens are one of the largest groups of foreign fighters fighting for IS. Salafi jihad methodology includes killing of innocent civilians by indiscriminate shooting and by suicide attacks on Shia mosques or Christian churches. Some Muslim scholars considered suicide bombing to be against the tenants of Islam. Others support extremism and acts of violence. The concept of Salafi Jihadis fits IS perfectly.

Wahhabism

Wahhabis are members of a strictly orthodox Sunni Muslim sect founded by Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab (1703–92). Wahhabism advocates a return to the early Islam of the Koran and Sunnah. It rejects later innovations and dilution of Sharia laws or their replacement by Western laws. Al-Wahhab had an understanding with Muhammad al-Saud who founded the House of Saud (The ruling family of Saudi Arabia). Mohammed bin Abd al-Wahhab's teachings are the official form of Sunni Islam which is followed in Saudi Arabia today. Many Saudi leaders use their considerable financial resources to fund and promote Salafism/ Wahhabism all around the world. This help is extended to young and old, from Madrasas (religious schools which teach Qur'an and Hadith) to high level scholarships for studying at Islamic Centres. More than 1,500 mosques, 210 Islamic centres and dozens of Muslim academies and schools were built all around the world with Saudi funds over the last 50 years. This financial aid and Wahhabi teachings have radicalized many Muslims all around the world. Wahhabism is a subset of Salafism. All Wahhabis are Salafists, but not all Salafists are Wahhabis.

Islamic State Caliphate

On 29 June 2014, IS declared the formation of the Fifth Caliphate with Abu Bakhr al-Bagdadi as its Caliph with its capital as Ar-Raqqah in Syria. In doing so it has adhered to the traditions of the first three Caliphates. The IS holds parts of Iraq and Syria which is less than half of the heartland of the other Caliphates. It will be seen that the capital of the Caliphates have mostly been in Iraq at Kufa or Damascus or Samara or in Syria at Ar Raqqah and Harran. Ar Raqqah was the capital of the Abasyyid Caliphate from 769 to 803. This appears to be the reason for IS making it its capital. Most Salafist Jihadi groups around the world have vowed allegiance to the Caliphate.

What does Islamic State Want?

Being able to understand the enemy's intention is essential in planning its defeat. The author considers the IS's aims in two parts, short term and long term.

Short term goal of IS is to hold on to the captured territories in Iraq and Syria and draw the Western and Muslim nations that are arrayed against it into a battle of attrition. At the same time it will try to weaken these nations psychologically, economically and militarily by indiscriminate and brutal acts of terror like beheadings, suicide bombings, car bombings and indiscriminate shooting of civilians outside Iraq and Syria. Take the example of its attack on tourists at a beach resort in Tunisia. A lone gunman on shooting spree kills over 38 and wounds many more before he is killed by security forces. The result is an exodus of foreign tourists leading to loss of revenue, increased deployment of security forces to patrol beaches leading to increased defence spending in Tunisia. Britain has been forced to consider increasing its deployment in Syria and Iraq, increasing security in UK and increasing defence budget.

The long term aim of IS is to increase the extent of its Caliphate and Islamic rule over the entire world or at least much of Africa, Middle East, Central, South and East Asia.

Islamic State Armed Forces and Tactics

Armed Forces

It is difficult to estimate the size of the armed forces of IS. Estimates differ from tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand. IS's armed forces grew quickly during 2014 when they succeeded in capturing Mosul and a military base holding enormous quantities of American arms and ammunition. Many of Saddam Hussein's generals and soldiers who had been dismissed or imprisoned by the US authorities in Iraq have joined their ranks.

It is also not clear as to whether they have a hierarchical organizational like battalions and brigades. Their military is based on mobile units using light vehicles such as pickup trucks with machine guns or anti aircraft guns mounted on them. They also use motorbikes and buses for speedy advances. They use artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles captured from the Iraqi and Syrian Armies. They have a wide variety of anti tank and anti aircraft weapons captured from Syrian and Iraqi forces. They do not have an air force. They may have deployed some chemical weapons in Iraq and Syrian Kurdistan. Their terror tactics include genocide, mass executions, beheadings, and forcing non Sunni young women they capture into sexual slavery. A significant number of IS fighters are from outside Iraq and Syria. IS fighters are highly skilled in urban guerrilla warfare.

Islamic State Combat Tactics

Little is known about the military command structure of IS. According to battle reports, IS often operates in small mobile fighting units. The group also operates outside areas it largely controls using a cell structure. They communicate through the internet. IS has a long history of using truck and car bombs, suicide bombers and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). Truck and car bombs are used against enemy check posts to cause casualties and open routes for follow up assault forces. Truck and car bombs are also used against enemy defences in built up areas before an attack to soften them up. They are also used to kill Shias and other non Sunni civilians in Baghdad and other cities. Suicide bombers are used to attack enemy military commanders and political leaders. They are also used to target Shia mosques at Friday prayers and political gatherings, Christian churches, markets, restaurants to kill and wound civilians, cause mayhem and instil fear in the population. They also use suicide bombers to target enemy soldiers when defending urban areas to cause casualties and lower morale.

IEDs are used as defensive weapons to delay enemy advance and cause casualties. IS booby traps towns and buildings which they are forced to vacate. Opposition forces are forced to waste time and effort in clearing IEDs and booby traps. IS uses heavy earth moving machinery for digging km of trenches for its fighters around villages and towns which they defend. The trenches provide protection from air attacks and artillery fire as also from observation. Some of these trenches are provided with overhead cover or protection.

Troops in Iraq and Syria

In June 2014, IS had at least 4,000 fighters in Iraq. The number had increased as per CIA estimates to 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria by the end of 2014. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that the force numbers around 80,000 to 100,000 (up to 50,000 in Syria and 30,000 in Iraq). Some Syrian rebel factions of FSA or Islamic Front have defected to Islamic State. This includes the 1,000 soldier strong Dawud Brigade which defected in July 2014. IS is known for forcing other rebel groups into joining them. They also conscript individuals in the areas they control. Troops and equipment are moved between various parts of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon as per tactical needs.

Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria

There are many foreign fighters in IS ranks. The numbers will keep changing based on the tide of battle. Over a thousand are estimated to be from Chechnya. About 1000 to 3000 are from France, Britain and elsewhere in Europe. Around 1,000 Turks, 2000 to 3000 Tunisians, 7000 Saudis, 1000 to 2000 Jordanians, 1000 to 2000 Moroccans, 1000 Lebanese and 500 Libyans have joined IS forces. According to a UN report, an estimated 15,000 fighters from nearly 70 countries have travelled to Iraq and Syria to join militant groups, including IS. The recruits from developed countries are especially useful in training soldiers in the use of captured weapons and in the fields of technology and communication.

Conventional Weapons

The most weapons used against US and other Coalition forces during the Iraq insurgency were those taken from Saddam Hussein's weapon stockpiles around the country. These included Russian origin assault rifles, machine guns and RPGs. IS has been able to strengthen its military capability by capturing large quantities and varieties of weaponry during the Syrian Civil War. IS seized a huge quantity when it captured Mosul and a military base in Saladin Provinces. These included SA-7 and Stinger surface to air missiles, M79 Osa, HJ-8 and AT-4 Spigot anti tank weapons, Type 59 field guns, M198 howitzers, over 2000 Humvee armoured vehicles, T54/55/72 and M1 Abraham main battle tanks, M1117 armoured cars, truck mounted DSHK guns, ZU-23-2 anti aircraft guns, BM 21 Grad multi-barrel rockets etc. IS shot down an Iraqi helicopter in October 2014, and claims to have shot down "several other" helicopters in 2014. Observers fear that they have "advanced surface-to-air missile systems" such as the Chinese made FN-6, which are thought to have been provided to Syrian rebels by Qatar and or Saudi Arabia, and purchased or captured by IS.

Aircraft

When IS captured Mosul Airport in June 2014, it seized a number of UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters and some cargo planes that were stationed there. However, as of now, they lack trained pilots to operate them effectively. IS has captured fighter aircraft in Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported in October 2014 that former Iraqi pilots were training IS militants to fly captured Syrian jets. The US Central Command said it was not aware of flights by IS operated aircraft in Syria or elsewhere. On 21 October, the Syrian Air Force claimed that it had shot down two of these aircraft over al-Jarrah air base while they were landing.

Non Conventional Weapons

IS captured some nuclear materials from Mosul University in July 2014. Nuclear experts regarded the threat from the materials captured as insignificant. International Atomic Energy Agency spokeswoman said that the seized materials were low grade and would not present a significant safety, security or nuclear proliferation risk. Reports suggest that IS captured some Saddam era chemical weapons from an Iraqi military base and has deployed chlorine gas based chemical weapons against Iraqi Government forces, Syrian Government and Syrian Opposition Forces. Unidentified chemical weapons are reported to have been used against Kurds in Kobane, northern Syria.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths of Islamic State

The cause espoused by Islamic State is to re-establish the glory of Allah and Islam by replacing the decadent, secular life style and democratic governments in world. This they plan to achieve by establishing a Caliphate and ensuring Sharia laws prevail. The cause IS has adopted is popular with Salafists, Wahabists and all fundamentalist Muslims all around the world.

The greatest strength of IS is the motivation of its members. Every member seems to be willing to die for the glory of Allah and Islam. They have no dearth of volunteers for carrying out suicide attacks.

Ruthless barbarism of IS terrifies the enemy and reduces their will to fight. This seems to be affecting the Iraqi Army the most.

IS is flush with funds. Apart from getting about half a billion dollars in cash by capturing Mosul, it gets donations from non state actors in Muslim countries. It produces and sells crude oil and electricity, abducts foreigners for ransom, sells antiques on the black market and taxes traders and businesses operating in their territory.

Mastery in Psychological Warfare is another of their forte. They are able to recruit foreign fighters from both developing and developed nations. They are even able to recruit women from developed countries to be Jehadi brides or as support staff like doctors, nurses etc. They are masters at using social media for propaganda and conducting recruitment and operations. Their attempts to increase sectarian tensions in countries have been largely successful.

IS has effective political and military leadership. There is clarity of goals. There are no hidden agenda that hold back total commitment of its units. Their military leaders have displayed good understanding of strategy and tactic in battle and have consistently defeated larger Iraqi forces. They have tenaciously held on to captured territory.

IS has almost worldwide presence. It has sleeper cells in many developed and developing countries. These can be used at will to create chaos and widen sectarian divides in target countries.

Weaknesses of Islamic State

IS does not produces weapons, ammunition and spares. They have captured a lot of equipment, weapons and ammunition from government forces in Iraq and Syria. But these cannot be sufficient for a long drawn war. They have to get weapons, ammunition and spares to fight on. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are the most likely sources. Arms smugglers could be another source.

They do not have air power. Their enemies have air superiority.

They do not have any overtly friendly nation on its borders who can facilitate movement of foreign fighters, military and financial aid. This weakness is over come to some extent by covert support from Lebanon, Turkey and possibly Saudi Arabia.

Opportunities

Civil wars in Syria, Libya, Yemen and the turmoil in Egypt, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Afghanistan and Pakistan enable IS to strengthen their organizations in these countries.

The growing animosity between Saudi Arabia and Iran can also be exploited by IS to weaken the coalition that is opposing it in Iraq and Syria. Saudis are against the Iraqi Government or the US seeking Iranian assistance in the fight against IS. This reduces the fighting capability of Iraqi forces.

The US has a lame duck president. No major change in US strategy is possible till a new president moves into the White House. That is about two years away and two years is a long time in today's fast changing world. US have announced that it is going to reduce its sanctioned troop strength by 40,000. That is excellent news for the IS.

The crackdown by the present Egyptian Government on members of Muslim Brotherhood and killing of their leaders and protesters by Egyptian Security forces may encourage the radical among them to start an armed insurgency against the Government. This rebellion could then be taken over by IS in the same fashion as they have done in Anbar region of Iraq. Egypt could be the next major target of IS.

European and American penchant for insulting Prophet Muhammad and inability or unwillingness of western government to reign in these elements will further alienate the substantial Muslim population in these countries and make it easier for IS to recruit sympathizers and fighters. On 16 July 2015, a young Muslim American shot and killed four US marines and seriously injured a policeman and a woman in the US State of Tennessee. Who knows when another Muslim American or European will turn a gun on his countrymen for the glory of Islam and to avenge insults to Prophet Muhammad?

Threats

Over confidence can be dangerous for IS. The recent rocket attacks on Israel from Sinai could force the Israeli army to operate against its forces in support of Egyptian Army. That could be suicidal for its forces in Sinai.

Kurds both Syrian and Iraqi have proved to be tough fighters who are capable of defeating IS with US air support. If they are provided with adequate heavy weapons and tanks, they could be a serious threat to IS. The decision of the US president to send US Special Forces and advisors to northern Syria is an indication of things to come.

Russian intervention in Syria on the side of the government of Bashar al-Assad and use of its air power on IS targets will make it difficult for IS to expand in Syria.

All Sunnis in Iraq are not happy with IS's barbarity. US is trying to exploit their grievances by providing with training and some arms to Sunni tribes and groups ready to defend themselves and their villages. If these elements could be given adequate financial and military aid, they could be a serious threat to IS in Anbar Province.

If a peace deal is reached between the Assad Government and the rebels and the West supports Assad, it will be difficult for IS to hold on to its gains in Syria.

Internal strife is common to all Muslim regimes including caliphates. At least two of the first four caliphs were assassinated. There are unverified reports that there was an attempted coup against Abu Bakhr al- Baghdadi in June 1915 which led to the execution of a number of military commanders. Internal strife or a power struggle between foreign fighters and local fighters could finish off IS.

Conclusion

IS is a formidable enemy. It is the flag bearer of Salafi Jihadists who are present all around the world and enjoys their support. They are no pushovers. Iraqi Army is no match for them in terms of fighting capabilities. Under estimating the threat posed by them has enabled them to grow from a tiny anti Shia Salafi Jihadi militant group to a caliphate ruling 8 to 10 million people in a short span of 24 years from 1991 to 2015. Most of their growth has been after 2011 when US troops pulled out of Iraq. Sectarianism took over in Iraq and resulted in a Sunni revolt in Anbar Province which IS exploited. It was also in 2011 that Western and Sunni Arab States backed a rebellion in Syria against the Assad regime and plunged Syria into civil war and chaos. The sooner the Western powers realize the magnitude of the threat from the IS and take effective action to clip its wings, the better will it be for the modern world. Otherwise the Fifth Caliphate could become an unpleasant reality.

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Chapter 3: Battle Lines as In August 2015

Taking Stock of the Situation (Map 2)

Situations keep changing on the battle field. It took the IS just about ten days to capture Mosul, wake the world up to the danger IS poses to the world and the Middle East. Magazines can keep updating their stories. A book has to be based on the situation on a particular date. The cut off date for this book is 31 October 2015.

The war on the IS is perhaps the most confused one. Countries who are supposed to be fighting the IS are actually aiding it. Partners in the coalition fighting IS are acting against each other. Before we can examine the reasons for lack of success against the Islamic State, it is necessary to recapitulate the present situation.

MAP 2 : SITUATION AS ON 31 OCTOBER 2015

Battle Lines in Iraq

In sectarian terms, Iraq can be divided into three regions, the Shia dominated south, the Sunni dominated middle and the Kurd dominated north. The current fighting is mostly concentrated in the Sunni dominated middle consisting of the Anbar, Slalahuddin, Ninev and Diyala Provinces.

Mosul

The Iraqi Government has been planning to retake Mosul, the capital of Nineveh Province ever since it fell to ISIL forces on 10 June 2014. On 21 January 2015, 5,000 Kurdish Peshmerga soldiers liberated a number of villages around Mosul. They also disrupted supply routes between Mosul, Tell Afar and north eastern Syria. But they did not have resources to retake Mosul. Coalition air strikes have continued around Mosul and destroyed numerous IS targets. IS is well entrenched in Mosul. If the resistance offered by IS at Tikrit is anything to go by, taking the city will be a long and bitter struggle. Iraqi Army does not seem to be ready for it.

Baiji

Baiji City and refinery were captured by IS forces in June 2014. The Iraqi forces launched a counter attack in November 2014 and captured parts of the city and refinery. On 7 June 2015, Iraqi Security Forces and Shia militia with support from US air strikes captured the downtown area of Baiji. On 29 June 2015, Iraqi forces recaptured the Baiji Oil Refinery. IS Forces counter attacked on 5 July and retook some parts of the city. Clashes between the Iraqi Security Force and IS Forces are still going on inside of Baiji city and refinery with neither side able to claim a decisive victory.

Kurdish Region

Iraqi Kurdistan extends from Syria to Iran along Turkish border. The current front line between IS and Kurdish forces runs close to the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan from Tal Afar to Kirkuk. Peshmerga along with other Kurdish forces like the PKK are defending this front line. Peshmerga are the armed forces of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi army is forbidden by law from entering Iraqi Kurdistan. Hence Peshmerga and its ally the PKK are responsible for defending the Kurdish Region. Peshmerga and PKK have prevented IS forces from over running Iraqi Kurdistan. They have emerged as a key ally and boots on ground for the US efforts to defeat the IS. In August 2014, the US reversed its policy of banning the direct transfer of arms to the Iraqi Kurds and allowed supply of arms and ammunition to the Peshmerga. Military advisers from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and others have been training Peshmerga forces. The US led coalition has been carrying out air strikes in support of the Peshmerga forces. Milan anti tank missiles supplied by Germany have enabled Peshmerga to blow up IS car bombs before they can get close enough to cause damage.

The Peshmerga forces have pushed IS forces out of more than 100 sq km south and west of Kirkuk. They have helped Iraqi forces recapture and defend Mosul Dam. They have also launched military operation in north western Iraq towards the IS stronghold of Tal Afar. The offensive aims cut vital supply lines from the IS strongholds in Syria into Iraq. They have recaptured Sinjar town.

The Kurdistan Workers' Party commonly referred to as PKK is a Kurdish militant organization based in Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan. It waged an armed struggle against the Turkish State from 1984 to 2013 for autonomy of Turkish Kurdistan. Kurds comprise about 20 percent of the Turkish population. The group was founded in 1978 by a group of Kurdish students led by Abdullah Ocalan. In 2013, the PKK declared a cease fire with the Turkish government who promised to address their legitimate political and social aspirations. They also withdrew their fighters from Turkey into Iraqi Kurdistan. The PKK along with Kurdish Peshmerga forces captured Kirkuk which was abandoned by Iraqi forces in the face of attacks by IS forces.

In August 2014, the PKK forces engaged IS in northern Iraq and helped thousands of Yazidis escape from Mount Sinjar. In September 2014, the PKK assisted Kurdish YPG defend Kobane in Syria from attack by IS forces. Turkish Kurds carried out street protests, demanding that the government in Ankara take more forceful action to combat IS and to allow Kurdish militants to move freely across the border and resupply their comrades in Syria. Clashes between police and protesters killed at least 31 people. The Turkish government continued to restrict PKK and YPG fighters' movement across its borders. In July 2015, after the suicide bombing at Suruc, Turkey started air raids on IS targets in Iraq. They also bombed PKK targets in northern Iraq after PKK assassinated two Turkish police officers accused of having links with IS. PKK also claims that its positions in northern Iraq were being shelled by Turkish artillery. In revenge, PKK has attacked Turkish security forces within Turkey with car bombings. PKK has been fighting IS in Iraq and Syria. Turkish attacks on them can only help IS.

The front line in northern Iraq is stable. IS forces are concentrating on holding their positions in Mosul, Baiji and Tal Afar. The Peshmerga and other Kurdish forces with assistance from Iraqi forces and US air support have proved to be able to hold their defence from Mosul Dam to Kirkuk.

Salahuddin Province

This province lies to the north of Baghdad. The cities of Baiji and Tikrit (Saddam Hussein's birthplace and stronghold) fell to ISIL in June 2014. They even reached the city of Samarra, the capital of the Province but could not wrest control of it due to the resistance from Iraqi security forces and Shi'ite militias. US with air strikes and Iran with military advisers intervened in order to stem the tide. They were successful in the breaking of the Siege of Amirli. Salahuddin is a front line state in the battle against IS and remains vulnerable.

Diyalia Province

Diyaliya province is north east of Bagdad and had been captured by IS forces in June 2014. It borders Iran. The provincial capital is Baquba. The Iraqi military recaptured the last contested area, the district of Muqdadiya on 29 January 2015. Shia militia have been accused of kidnapping and killing scores of Sunni civilians after driving out the IS forces. Prime Minister Abadi has pledged to rein in the militia. The Province is under Iraqi government control. However, IS forces continue to launch surprise attacks like the ambush north of Muqdadiya and the car bomb attack on a village market that killed 86 innocent civilians.

Anbar Province

IS forces captured Ramadi and the entire Anbar Province in May 2014. The Iraqi Prime Minister criticized his troops for making an unauthorized withdrawal from the city. On 26 May 2015, pro-government forces formally launched an operation to drive IS out of Anbar province. The Iraqi army backed by the Shia and Sunni pro-government militias launched an assault on several fronts on 13 July 2015. The attacks were repelled by IS forces. On July 23, Iraqi government announced that it had deployed US trained Sunni Iraqi militia for the first time to retake Ramadi. Iraqi forces have been able to retake some portions of Anbar Province. But IS forces have been able to thwart the Iraqi Government's attempts to retake Ramadi and Fallujah. With the restriction on the use of Shia militia, it is unlikely that the Iraqi government will have adequate boots on ground to retake Anbar Province.

Saudi Border

Saudi Arabia is a member of the US coalition against IS. It has a long border with Iraq. Most of the territory on the Iraqi side is now controlled by IS. The capture of Saudi Arabia, the home to the holy mosques of Mecca and Medina, by IS is key to legitimizing its Caliphate. To protect itself, the Saudis are building a 900 km long "Great Wall" from Turaif on the Jordan-Saudi border to Hafar al-Batin on Saudi-Kuwait border all along its border with Iraq. The work began in September 2014. There are bases for border guards, watch towers, night vision cameras and radars. About 30,000 extra troops with tanks, armoured cars and helicopters have been sent to the area. However, history tells us that all defensive walls have been breached. Tunnels are in fashion. Hamas and IS have both used them. They can be dug under the fence. 30,000 border guards mean nothing unless they are determined and dedicated fighters. Saudi army is not exactly renowned for its fighting prowess. This has been repeatedly exposed while fighting the Houtis in Yemen. 30,000 strong Iraqi army was routed by 1500 IS fighters in Mosul. Are they ready to die for their country? If IS can topple the Saudi monarchy and seize power, they will not only have the two holy sites of Islam but also one of the most lethal arsenal of weapons and equipment available with any country along with unlimited funds. If IS captures Saudi Arabia, nothing can stop them from establishing a large Caliphate.

A suicide squad from the IS attacked a Saudi border post in January 2015. Three border guards including a general in charge were killed. Over 7000 Saudi nationals have joined IS forces in Iraq and Syria. Saudi security forces have detained over 500 suspected members of the IS and seized arms and ammunition. IS has claimed responsibility for attacks on Shia mosques in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. The oil producing eastern province has a significant Shia population. IS and Al Qaeda are trying to provoke the Shias to revolt against the Sunni regime and cause chaos. The House of Saud may consider Iran and Syria to be bigger threats than IS and pay for their folly. The way to defeat IS is not to build fences but to attack them in their strongholds and destroy them.

Jordanian Border

Jordan is a member of the US coalition against IS and has been taking part in air strikes. One of its pilots was captured and burnt alive by IS fighters after his jet crashed. King Abdullah has managed to negotiate an increase in security aid from the US from $660 million to $1 billion for 2015-2017. Jordan has a long border with both Iraq and Syria. Unlike its rich neighbour Saudi Arabia, Jordan does not have the resources to fence its border and deploy tens of thousands of border guards. According to a poll in September 2014 by the Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, only 62 percent of Jordanians consider IS to be a terrorist organization. Around 2,000 to 2,500 Jordanians are known to have joined the IS forces. This is the third largest foreign Arab contingent after Saudi Arabia and Tunisia. Many of them can return to the country and organize sleeper cells. Many Jordanians seeing joining the IS as a chance to move out of poverty. Jordan houses more than 700,000 refugees from Iraq and Syria. Some of them could be IS sympathizers.

The scantily guarded border between Syria and Jordan is an open invitation to incursions by IS. The IS has captured the Syrian city of Palmyra which is about 150 km from the border. Its forces are moving south towards the Jordanian border and have taken control of the Al-Waheed border crossing with Iraq which is very close to the Jordanian border. IS is also in control of the Anbar Province of Iraq and thus entire Jordanian border with Iraq.

IS forces is likely to try to expand their territory southwards from Syria and Iraq by attacking Jordan. Jordan is a comparatively weak state. It has little to offer to IS in terms of funds but a large arsenal of weapons. An attack may not be imminent. But capture of Jordan will give IS access to Israeli occupied West Bank and the Red Sea. It will also give IS an option to attack Saudi Arabia from Jordan and out flank the fence Saudi Arabia has created. Jordan is preparing for invasions by IS forces by arming Bedouins and Druze community in Syria and Iraq close to its border. This is a dangerous strategy as the Bedouins may well join IS as the Bedouins of Sinai have joined IS affiliates. It is also worth remembering that many Sunni Tribes in Iraq have also joined IS.

Iranian Border

Iran is not a member of the US coalition against IS. As a Shia nation it is the natural enemy of IS. It has launched air strikes against IS positions, provided combat troops and technical advisers to the Iraqi government, Shia militias, and Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iranian Qods force along with Iran's Lebanese ally the Hezbollah, are equipping, training, advising, and directing the Iraqi Shia militias such as Khata'ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization and Asa'ib Ahal al-Haq in the fight against IS. These militias are more effective than the Iraqi security forces as they are more motivated and better led. Iran has sent a large number of military advisers to Iraq. It has conducted occasional air strikes and spent more than $1 billion on military aid to Iraq and the Kurds. Iran has attempted to limit its overt military involvement in Iraq to avoid the polarization of Iraq's Sunni minority and deepening sectarian tensions.

IS troops are reported to have attacked two Iranian border guards posts near Iran's border city of Qasre Shirin on 19 June 2014. This is the only attack by IS forces on Iranian soil. US believe that Iran has established a control centre at Al-Rasheed Air Base in Baghdad and was flying a small fleet of Ababil drones over Iraq. An Iranian signals intelligence unit had reportedly been deployed at the airfield to intercept electronic communications between IS fighters and commanders. Iran has been the first country to provide weapons and ammunition to the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces.

Kurdish sources claim that hundreds of Iranian soldiers helped Peshmerga forces to recapture Jalawla from IS on 22 August 2014. Iran has denied any involvement. However, Iran has acknowledged that a number of its officers have been killed or wounded while fighting with Iraqi Army or Shia militias against IS forces. The US denies cooperating with Iran in its war with IS. However it accepts that Iran is an important neighbour o Iraq and cooperation between the two is natural and beneficial to the Iraqi government and Iraqi Kurds.

Iran could be an important player in defeating the IS. However, it will not get involved in a big way in the war on IS unless the US invites it to participate or till IS launches an attack on Iranian soil. Till then it will continue to provide military advisers, military supplies, logistic and intelligence support to the Iraqi government, Shia militia and Iraqi Kurds and ensure that these forces are not defeated.

Battle Lines in Syria

IS now controls almost 50 percent of Syrian territory. They currently have presence in nine out 14 Syrian provinces and control many significant oil and gas fields. As per the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, least 8,000 IS fighters have been killed in clashes with Syrian rebels like FSA, Islamic Front and YPG Kurdish forces, and in US led air strikes that started in September 2014.

Turkey Border: Idlib/Alleppo

The Idlib Province borders the two key largely government controlled provinces of Latakia and Hama. Only a few areas of the province remain under government control. These are an airport on the eastern outskirts of Idlib, the two northern villages of Fua and Qariat and a couple of army checkpoints. Russian intervention has changed the balance of power here. Government forces were regrouping for a counter-offensive.

Alleppo is the second Syrian province on the Turkish-Syrian border. Fierce battles raged here between IS and other fighters like the Al-Nusra Front in August 2015 after the IS seized villages near the Turkish border. IS also advanced to within 30 miles of Bab al-Salam (also known as Oncopinar), one of the main border crossings for Jihadists between Syria and Turkey.

Al-Nusra Front kidnapped the fighters of a US trained rebel faction called Division 30 Infantry group. It is considered to be a major blow for the Pentagon's "train-and-equip" program for moderate Syrian opposition. The program is now defunct. The kidnapping prompted the US to launch air strikes on Al-Nusra positions. This was not the first time the Nusra Front had targeted US supported rebel groups. Al-Nusra had earlier targeted the Hazm Movement and seized the group's supply of US made TOW anti-tank weapons and other equipment.

The Turkey-Syrian border is vital for Islamic Front rebels including the Al-Nusra Front who get most of their fighters, military and logistic aid through Turkey. This area will be fought for by the Syrian Government, Islamic Front and IS. Turkey wants a buffer zone across parts of the 750 km Syrian-Turkish border. Obama has despatched some Special Forces and military aid to Kurdish YPG in October 2015. Turkey is bombing YPG. Thus northern Syria could be a battle zone where allies are fighting allies. Russian intervention has made the situation more complex.

Syrian Kurdistan

Kurdish YPG forces recaptured Kobane after four months of fierce fighting with ISIL by 27 January 2015. They had retaken most of the villages in the Kobane district by April 2015. On 25 June 2015, IS launched a surprise attack on Kobane. Over 164 people were killed and 200 injured. Kurdish forces claimed that the vehicles carrying IS militants had entered the city from across the Turkish border. Turkey denies it. Kurdish forces have since cleared the entire Kobane district. They have also taken Tell Abyad and linked with Western Jazira district of Hasakah Province. Fighting is in progress for the al-Hasakah city. 70 percent of the city is under Kurdish control, 10 percent is held by Syrian Government forces and 20 percent by IS. The Kurds and Syrian government forces now control all road links between ar-Raqqah and Turkey. US have decided to deploy Special Forces in support of YPG and are providing them military aid. IS seems to be on the defensive. The front line is about 50 km north of ar-Raqqah.

IS began its assault on Hasakah city on June 25, 2014 and seized several neighbourhoods. But Kurdish YPG and Syrian government forces and supporting Christian militias fought back and made considerable gains. The Kurdish YPG launched an offensive towards Tell Abyad, a border town controlling a highway from Turkey to ar-Raqqah in May 2015. It was a part of Kurdish attempts to retake the western part of al-Hasakah Province and link Kobane and Jazira Cantons. About the same time, YPG forces from the Jazira Canton advanced to the villages neighbouring the town of Suluk. By 12 June, YPG and allied forces captured the eastern part of Suluk but could not hold it against IS counter attack. YPG and allied forces continued their advance to the southeast and southwest of Tell Abyad and captured a number of villages. of Jazira Canton. Tell Abyad town and border crossing was captured on 16 June. On 23 June Kurdish forces and allied fighters were in complete control of Ayn Issa and the surrounding region. The front was now only 50 km from Ar-Raqqah city. On 6 July, IS recaptured Ayn Issa, following a massive counterattack. On 8 July, the YPG recaptured Ayn Issa. On 9 July, IS launched another counterattack at Ayn Issa, but this assault was repelled by 10 July. Kurdish YPG is on the offensive in the region.

Eastern Syria: Dier-ez- Zor/Palmyra

The Syrian rebels had taken control of most areas of the province by mid 2013. On 10 April 2014, IS launched an assault on rebel positions near the border town of Al-Bukamal. By 5 June, they had gained control of the entire western countryside of Deir ez-Zor. By 14 July, they had expelled Al-Nusra and other rebel groups from Deir ez-Zor city. By this stage, IS controlled about 95 percent of Deir ez-Zor province. On 3 December 2014, IS attempted to capture the Syrian Government military airbase but failed. The Syrian Army launched intensive air strikes on their strongholds on the outskirts of the villages of al-Jafra, al-Hawija and Marihiyak. On 14 December some members of the Shaatat tribe joined to Army at the military air base to fight against IS. In February, IS forces stopped attacking the air base. By March, the Syrian army made more gains. But much of the Province and the oil fields and facilities remained in IS hands.

The IS stormed the ancient Roman city and UNESCO's world Heritage site of Palmyra in May 2015 and destroyed many monuments. This prompted a Syrian army to wage a counter-offensive. They gained some ground on the western part of the city. Sporadic fighting continues around the city.

Golan Heights/Dera

The border between Israeli occupied Golan Heights and Syria had been mostly controlled by moderate Sunni rebels. IS has been expanding in this direction. Three Syrian rebel groups operating in the region consider the IS to be the future of Islam and have joined them. This could make the situation worse for Israel. The main group, the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade has hundreds of fighters. The brigade took some of the United Nations peacekeepers hostage in March 2015. This forced the UN to withdraw the 40 year old peace keeping mission. That means there is no longer a buffer zone between the Jewish state and Jihadi groups who are ideologically required to destroy it. Even so, Israel reportedly allowed the brigade to have its wounded fighters treated in Israeli hospitals. Israel has even supplied weapons to Syrian rebels and killed an Iranian general and a Hezbollah leader. Israel has recently boosted its defences in the Golan Heights.

Lebanon Border

Lebanon is not a part of the US coalition against IS. Lebanon's radical Sunni Muslim population, which is largely concentrated in the northern town of Tripoli are supporters of Syrian opposition, particularly Al-Nusra Front and the IS and actively help in movement of fighters and military aid to Syrian rebels. The other three sects in Lebanon Shia, Druze, and Christian are standing united in their desire to prevent IS from gaining a foothold in Lebanon. Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite militia has been fighting the IS and Al-Nusra Front fighters along the rugged Syrian-Lebanese border in the Qalamun mountains in support of the Syrian government.

Ras Baalbek and a part of the neighbouring town of Arsal on the Lebanon-Syria border are now in IS and Al Nusra hands. The militant groups hold the outskirts of Arsal and some of the nearby hills. They have a heavy underground presence in the town. They now control about 300 square km of Lebanese territory. IS is reported to have established an Islamic Sharia court in Arsal.

The Lebanese army and Hezbollah, are battling IS forces alongside each other. On 9 June 2015, IS forces launched an attack on Hezbollah positions just outside of Ras Baalbek in an attempt to gain control of the hills between the villages but were repelled. The route into Syria through Tripoli in Lebanon is important to both IS and Al-Nusra. They are not fighting each other over it. But IS is under pressure from US and NATO backed Syrian Kurds and US coalition air attacks. It is unlikely that they can spare adequate forces for a decisive battle with Hezbollah and the Lebanese army in Lebanon. At best it may be able to engineer a large scale sectarian conflict by using sleeper cells to target non Sunni groups by suicide and car bombs. IS fighters are seeking support from Al Nusra and the Islamic Front to extend the group's influence in Lebanon. The United States recently furnished more than $25 million worth of military aid to Lebanon's army in order to help it meet the growing extremist threat in the country.

Turkey

Turkey's role is crucial in the battle against IS. It is not a part of the US led coalition against IS. Till 15 July 2015, it was accused of aiding the IS and allowing it s fighter to use its territory to attack Kurdish positions in Northern Syria. All that may have changed when at least 31 people were killed and about 100 others injured, in a suicide bomb attack in the Turkish border town of Suruc north of the Kurdish town of Kobane in Northern Syria in July 2015. The attack was carried out by a Turkish female student suicide bomber. IS claimed responsibility for the attack. Most of those killed or wounded were Kurdish volunteers heading to Kobane to help rebuild it. This was followed up by an attack in which one Turkish soldier was killed.

Till July 2015, Turkey appeared to be immune from the IS threat. That seems to be changing. IS seems to be concerned that Turkey is moving away from it. It is concerned that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are forming a coalition in order to fight Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the IS. It is also concerned that Ankara has altered its military cooperation policy with the US and allowed the US Air Force to use Turkish air bases for attacks on IS. IS attacks on Turkish soil towards the end of July appeared to be trying warn Turkish government, citizens and particularly Kurds, to desist from assisting in the reconstruction of Kobane or acting against the IS.

Turkey is concerned about the strengthening of the Kurdish military capability through US and NATO military and economic aid. This increases the danger that the Kurds could set up an independent Kurdish enclave on the Syrian side of the border. The latest attacks by IS and the Kurdish PKK on its soil has forced Turkey to change its stance towards them. On 24 July 2015, Turkish air force launched attacks on four IS targets in Iraq. Its security forces launched search operations all over Turkey and arrested over 500 suspected IS and PKK militants. The Turkish prime minister announced that Turkey will allow United States air force to use its air base near the Syrian border for air attacks on Islamic State targets in Syria and Iraq. However, it is worth noting that Turkey has launched very few air strikes on IS targets and concentrated its attacks on PKK in northern Iraq. PKK was fighting IS in Iraq. Attacks against PKK will only help IS forces in northern Iraq. It is likely that Turkey is trying to deceive the world that it is acting against IS when it is actually trying to weaken its traditional enemies, the Assad regime and PKK.

Israel

Israel is not a part of the US led coalition against IS. However, it is inimical to Syrian regime and Hezbollah and would like to do anything including help in anti Assad forces including IS to defeat them.

Islamic State should be ideologically inimical to Israel. But it has not attempted to attack Israel in any way. On 6July 2015, Israeli security forces arrested 6 persons suspected to be agents of the IS.

Israel's Security Cabinet has adopted a proposal to build an approximately 30 km long fence along Israel's eastern border with Jordan. The 5m high barrier is intended to prevent Islamist extremists and migrants from entering the country. It will stretch from the southern port city of Eilat to Timna. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the fence as vital to national security. The local IS franchise in Sinai, Wilayat Sinai (formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis), has mounted a large-scale, coordinated attacks against multiple Egyptian military targets in northern Sinai. Wilayat Sinai also launched three rockets into the Negev region of Israel. The troops of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi launched a bloody and successful counterattack, but that engagement was just the beginning of what could be a new theatre of conquest for the Caliphate.

Israel isn't IS' target as yet. That may change if IS succeeds in capturing Jordan and/or Sinai. It is worth remembering that when Ansar Beit al-Maqdis was affiliated with Al-Qaida rather than IS, it attempted several attacks inside Israel. These included one near Eilat in 2011 that succeeded, and another near Kerem Shalom in 2012 that failed. It also fired some 10 rockets at Israel. But Israel cannot attack IS without outraging the GCC. If it attacks Syria and Hezbollah, it will assist IS in taking over Syria and Lebanon. If it tries to take over Syria and Lebanon, it will draw adverse reaction from Iran and Russia and perhaps even from the UN.

Russia

Russia does not have any common border with Syria or IS. But it is a key player in the region. It has got a naval base at the port city of Tartous in Latakia Province which is strategically important to it. Russia has been propping President Assad ever since the civil war started with weapons and funds. As the Assad forces weaken, Russia has inducted more military equipment and some Russian troops to fight alongside Syrian Government forces. Russian aircraft are targeting Syrian rebel and IS targets. Russia cannot allow the Assad regime to fall as then it will lose its naval base. It also cannot let the IS win because Russian Chechens and Central Asian Khorasans are an important element in IS forces and if IS prospers, it could create problems for Russia in Chechnya and Central Asia.

Conclusion

The fight against IS in Iraq and Syria seems to have stalled for the present. Skirmishes are going on at the battle fronts. Air strikes are killing people and destroying targets. Car bombs and suicide attacks are playing havoc. Soldiers and civilians are dying. Innocents are being forced away from their homes into refugee camps, camps of despair. But neither side is making any decisive gains. The countries that surround the battle zone are playing games and trying to address their national interests and concerns. There is no consensus on the way forward. Reports say that King Abdullah of Jordan is concerned over the fact that even after over 6,000 bombing raids by the US and its allies over one year. IS has not been beaten. It only seems to get stronger. Bombing raids did not win wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq or Yemen to name a few. Why should it be any different in the fight against IS?

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Chapter 4: Reasons For Lack Of Success

Saudi Arabia - Iran Divide

The US invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew the Saddam Hussein Regime. The Iraqi Army was disbanded. All senior civil and military officers serving in Saddam Hussein's government and the Ba'ath Party were either charged with crimes against humanity or dismissed. An interim governing council was formed by the Americans. The installation of the al-Maliki Government after the 2005 elections changed the balance of power between the Sunnis and Shias in Iraq. Sunnis were the dominating sect when Saddam Hussein was in power. After the fall of Saddam, Shias by the virtue of their numbers became the dominating power. This led to increased Iranian influence in Iraq. Iran has been supporting the Assad regime in Syria. Iran is seen as supporting the Houthis in Yemen and the opposition in Bahrin. Iran denies any involvement in Bahrin and Yemen.

Iranian involvement is resented by Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies in the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, the largest Sunni power in the region is extremely unhappy with the increasing influence of Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (through Hezbollah) and now in Yemen through the Houthis. Sunni Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are unwilling partners in Western coalition against IS. They are afraid that if the IS is defeated, it will end the Sunni domination of Arab lands. Hence they do not want IS to be defeated. Only the fear that IS will destroy their dynasties and rule over their countries prevents them from openly supporting IS. The Sunni nations would like the fighting in Iraq to continue for ever. Non state players in Sunni nations could well be supporting IS with money, recruits and arms which reach their beneficiaries through Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi border and Turkey.

Sunni nations in GCC openly support the Syrian rebels in their fight against the Assad regime. However, the Free Syrian Army is defunct and the Al Nusra Front has limited local support. Syrian rebels have not made adequate military gains to topple the Syrian regime and their task has been made more difficult by the Russian intervention in Syria on Assad's side. The fight for territory and influence between these groups and IS helps the Assad Regime in holding on to the territory they control. With Russia and Iran staunchly supporting the Assad Regime with heavy weapons and funds and the Hezbollah, Kurdish YPG and Christian militias providing additional boots on ground, the battle for Syria is far from over. American reluctance to arm the Free Syrian Army and Al Nusra Front for fear that these will fall into IS hands leave them out gunned by Assad's forces. American effort to create and arm a new moderate force to fight the Assad regime called "Division 30" is yet to take off and has been abandoned. IS also lacks heavy weaponry, effective air defence and is over stretched. It has to fight the Kurds in the north, Free Syrian Army and Al Nusra Front and its allies in South and West and Syrian Government forces and Hezbollah. The stalemate will continue till injection of significant additional resources to one of the groups or battle fatigue in Syrian government forces will pave the way to break the stalemate.

Saudi Arabia does not seem to realize that the Fifth Caliphate of the IS is incomplete without ruling over Mecca and Medina, the fountain head of Islam. Sooner or later they will replace the House of Saud with their own Emir and rule the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies do not want IS to be defeated either in Iraq or Syria. They feel that if IS is defeated, Iran and its Shia allies in Iraq and Syria will dominate Sunni Arabs in the Sunni heartland. Saudi Arabia and its allies are US allies and the largest purchasers of US arms (reportedly worth about $64 billion). How does the US ignore their sentiments and support the Shia regimes in Syria and Iraq to victory. US is running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. They have done it in Afghanistan for over 24 years and achieved nothing. Unless they change their policy and go after IS with all their massive military and economic power, IS cannot be defeated.

Sectarian Divide in Iraq

Shia-Sunni Divide in Iraq

Iraq became an independent Kingdom in 1932 when Britain handed over power to the Sunni Hashemite dynasty. Sunni sectarian domination in Iraq started with the Hashemites. The domination was resisted by the Kurds, Assyrians, Yazidis and Shias. The Shia tribes were under represented in the Sunni dominated Iraqi government. Prominent Shia sheiks were not allowed to contest the Iraqi parliament election in 1934. As a result unrest broke out in the Najaf and Diwaniyya regions in January 1935. The rebellion was pacified within a week. Uprisings erupted again when an important Shia cleric was arrested. Unrest spread in the Najaf, and Shia majority southern regions. Martial law was declared in Diwaniyya and the full power of the Iraqi air force and army was deployed against the Shia tribesmen. The Shias were defeated and hundreds of them were killed. Iraq troops destroyed homes, imprisoned civilians and conducting public hangings. Another revolt in 1937 was also brutally crushed.

World War II diverted the attention of all from sectarian issues. The Hashemite monarchy was over thrown in 1958 in an Army coup. The new government continued with anti Shia policies. The government of the new Republic was again overthrown by the Ba'ath Party which ruled Iraq till it was overthrown in 2003 by the Americans. Ba'ath Party was Sunni dominated. The Shia majority was suppressed under Saddam's rule.

Saddam Hussein launched an attack on Iran in 1980 with American encouragement. Americans were unhappy with the Iranian revolution which over threw the American puppet, Shah of Iran. Americans thus had a score to settle. After initial losses, Iran went on the offensive in 1982 and regained all lost territory. They even occupied some Iraqi territory by 1988 when the war ended. To secure the loyalty of the Shia population during the war, Saddam allowed more Shias into the Ba'ath Party and the government and improved Shia living standards. He had the government pay for restoring Imam Ali's tomb. The Iraqi regime made generous contributions to Shia "waqaf" (religious endowments). Welfare services in Shia areas were expanded.

Saddam changed his attitude towards Shias after Iranian offensive started in 1982. A major crackdown was launched on the leadership of the Shia community in 1983. Policies of repression against the Shias were implemented. The most notable act was the massacre of 148 Shias at the town of Dujail. Shias revolted in southern Iraq after the Americans defeated Saddam Hussein in Kuwait in 1991. Iraqi armed forces were largely composed of Shia conscripts. The spontaneous but disorganized revolts started in Basra and surrounding regions. Many Shias deserted the Iraqi Army and joined the revolt. Government buildings and prisons were attacked. There was a gun battle between army deserters and Saddam's security forces in Najaaf. Ba'ath Party officials fled the city or were killed. Prisoners were freed from jails. The uprising spread within days to all the Shia cities in southern Iraq. At the height of the revolution, the government lost effective control over 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces. Soon, regime loyalists regrouped and went on an offensive led by the Republican Guards. The outgunned rebels had very few heavy weapons or surface-to-air missiles. They were soon defeated. Thousands were killed.

There was another Shia unrest in Iraq in early 1999 following the killing of Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr. Al-Sadr was a popular Shia cleric based in the mainly Shia slum of Baghdad called Saddam City (now known as Sadr City). He joined politics and openly defied Saddam. He was assassinated along with his two sons while leaving a mosque in the Iraqi city of Najaf. The news of the killing led to violent protests in the heavily Shia dominated neighbourhoods of Baghdad as well as southern Shia majority cities such as Karbala, Nasiriyya, Kufa, Najaf and Basra. The Iraqi government then sealed off Saddam City, deployed the Republican Guard and put down the growing demonstrations. The unrest continued in the southern cities for three to four months. The government launched an all out effort to destroy all Shiite opposition groups. The worst violence of the uprising took place in Basra when large armed groups of the Shiite rebels attacked several police stations and offices of the Iraqi Ba'ath party. But their successes were short lived. The Iraqi government launched a brutal crackdown against potential opponents. Some claim that up to 500 Iraqi prisoners were executed in Basra alone.

The American Invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to the toppling of the Ba'ath Party government of Saddam Hussein. The human rights violations during the events of 1999 were investigated by the Supreme Iraqi Criminal Tribunal. Fourteen senior officers of Saddam's regime were tried. Three were sentenced to death. Seven others received prison sentences ranging from six years to life imprisonment.

Americans institutionalized the sectarian divide in Iraq when it set up the Iraqi Governing Council. This body had 13 Shias, 5 Sunnis and 5 Kurds. The Sunnis boycotted the 2005 elections. Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqi PM from 2006-2014, adopted a policy of marginalizing Sunnis. The Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki was Shia dominated. Every effort was made by the Government to marginalize the Sunnis and exact revenge for the years of marginalization and neglect. Sunnis tribes and political leaders do not want Iranian forces or Shia militias to be involved in recapturing towns, villages and lands in Sunni majority areas from IS as they fear reprisals for atrocities against Shias in the past.

Unfortunately Shia militias are more in numbers and more determined fighters than the regular army of Iraq. They are better led with military advisers from Qods Force of Iran and Hezbollah of Lebanon. They played a major role in the recapture of Tikrit, the only significant victory of Iraqi Government over IS forces. Without their active participation, IS cannot be defeated. Sunni leaders of Iraq and their GCC proxies will not allow it.

Arab-Kurd Divide in Iraq

The Kurdish region of the Ottoman Empire was carved up after its fall. Kurds were thus minorities in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Kurds in Iraq wanted an independent Kurdish State in Northern Iraq. The Iraqi government promised them regional autonomy in 1958. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) was recognized in 1960. However, the promise of regional autonomy was not fulfilled. As a result, the KDP began to agitate. Iraqi Government launched repeated offensives to subdue the Kurds but failed. The Ba'ath Party came to power in Iraq in a coup in 1968.The Ba'ath government restarted a campaign to end the Kurdish insurrection. The war ended in a stalemate in 1970. It caused between 75,000 and 100,000 casualties. A peace plan was announced in March 1970 and provided for broader Kurdish autonomy. The plan also gave Kurds representation in government bodies. The plan was to be implemented in four years. It never was.

Having failed to defeat the Kurds, the Iraqi government embarked on an Arabization program in the oil rich regions of Kirkuk and adjoining areas. They settled Sunni Iraqis in large numbers in these areas. This led to further protests. In response Iraqi Government launched another offensive against the Kurds. Unlike the previous guerrilla campaigns from 1961 to 1970, Kurds attempted positional warfare against the Iraqi Army with assistance from Iranians and Americans. This aid stopped after Iraq and Iran signed the Algiers Accord in 1975. Lacking heavy weaponry, the Kurds were defeated. The KDP was exiled. The war resulted in between 7,000 to 20,000 deaths from both sides.

Iraqi government now extended its control over Kurdistan and restarted its Arabization Program and repressive measures. Clashes between the Iraqi Army and Kurdish guerrillas started again in 1977. In 1978 and 1979, 600 Kurdish villages were burned down and around 200,000 Kurds were deported to the other parts of the country. Kurds took advantage of Iraq-Iran War of 1980 and restarted their revolt. The revolt was crushed by Saddam Hussein in a brutal campaign lasting from 1986 to1989 in which chemical weapons were used. An estimated 182,000 Kurds lost their lives in north Iraq and hundreds of thousands turned refugees. Most fled to neighbouring Iran. Kurds revolted again in 1991 after Saddam was defeated by the Americans in Kuwait. This revolt led to the establishment of the Kurdish Autonomous Region. Americans enforced a no fly zone over Kurdish areas and provided them with financial and military aid. Saddam Hussein was thus unable to carry out reprisals against the Kurds.

The fall of Saddam Hussein did not change the situation for Kurds. The Shia government of Nouri al-Maliki was bent on marginalizing the Kurds. Maliki did not allow American heavy weapons to be passed on to the Kurdish Forces. Some autonomy was given to the Kurds at the behest of the Americans.

Kurdish forces like the Shia militias are determined and skilled fighters. They have successfully defended their territory against assaults by IS forces with the help of US air support. IS cannot be defeated without their participation in the battle. But Iraq and Turkey are not willing to give the Kurds a larger military role for the fear that by the time the IS is defeated, the Kurds will become militarily strong enough to liberate their homelands from Turkish and Iraqi control. Turkey has already started launching air strikes on Kurdish PKK targets in Iraq in an effort to weaken them.

Effects of Sectarian Divide

There is deep distrust between Iraqi Shias, Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds. This distrust makes it impossible for the Iraqi Government to from a united front while fighting IS. The Kurdish Peshmerga Forces are the most determined and effective fighters. They have fought the Iraqi Army since 1932 and are battle hardened. They have stopped IS advance into their region in northern Iraq and defended Erbil and Kirkuk. They have helped Iraqi Government forces in the battle of Beiji Refinery and Mosul Dam. But they have not been provided with heavy artillery or tanks and armoured personnel carriers by the Iraqi Government. They have to rely on US air support or Iraqi artillery and armour support.

Sunnis tribes and political leaders do not trust the Shia dominated Iraqi Government. The Sunni presence in present day Iraqi Army is negligible. Most Sunnis are afraid that Shia militias will conduct reprisals against them for the years of repression and atrocities they have inflicted on the Shias. But Shia militias are the second most effective force fighting IS in Iraq. They have played a major part in the recapture of Tikrit and fighting IS in the Anbar province.

The sectarian divide makes it impossible for the Iraq Government and their American mentors to utilize the Kurdish and Shia militias to defeat IS forces. Unless this problem is solved, the Iraqi Government or the anti IS coalition will never be able to defeat the IS.

Sectarian Divide and Civil War in Syria

Syria became an independent republic in 1946. The Ba'ath Party usurped power in 1963. In 1971, General Hafez al-Assad, then defence minister seized power in a coup. He declared himself president and remained president till his death in 2000. He reigned over a secular single party government in Iraq. After him his son Bashar al-Assad became president. The government's hold on the population was almost total. The first call for democratic reforms was in the form of a civil disobedience campaign was quickly and brutally put down. The Assad family is from the Alawite sect which is an offshoot of Shia Islam. Alawites are about 12 per cent of the population. It has maintained tight control on Syria's security forces. Sunni Muslims make up about 75 percent of the population. They are poor and marginalized and naturally resent the domination by the Alawites. Syrian Khurds are mainly concentrated in north eastern Syria along the Turkish border. They also complain over ethnic discrimination and denial of their cultural and language rights. There is a fairly large Christian population in Syria. They form about 10 percent of the population and are reasonably prosperous. Socio-economic inequality in Syria is large and the Sunnis were the worst sufferers.

The country was under emergency rule from 1963 until 2011. Public gatherings were banned. Security forces had sweeping powers of arrest and detention. However, in spite of gross discrimination of Sunnis and other minorities, unlike Iraq, there were no major revolts in Syria. Syria remained peaceful, prosperous and secular. Inter marriage between sects was common. The Arab Spring which blew away the authoritarian Presidents of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt changed it all. Syrians, particularly the Sunnis, now wanted real democracy. Small protests started in January 2011. Mass protests erupted in March in Damascus and Aleppo and spread in the following days to more cities. Protests kept growing in size. On 18 March, the protests turned bloody. The agitators, as in Libya, were encouraged to revolt by Britain and France. President Assad claimed that conspirators and foreign powers sought to topple his government. The Syrian Army launched a series of large scale military attacks on rebellious towns, using tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery, leading to hundreds of civilian deaths. Thousands including students, political and human rights activists were detained. Some Sunni soldiers refused to fire on unarmed protestors and were executed. More soldiers defected to protect protesters. By the end of July 2011, around 1,600 civilians and 500 security forces were reported to have been killed and 13,000 arrested.

On 29 July 2011, defecting Syrian officers formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA). This force is composed of Sunni defectors from the Syrian Armed Forces. It aims to bring down the Assad Government and replace it with one with proportionate Sunni representation. In August 2011 a coalition of anti government groups called the Syrian National Council was formed. The group, based in Turkey, attempted to organize the opposition to the Assad Government. However, the opposition, including the FSA, and Islamist rebels remained a fractious collection of about a hundred self seeking political groups and armed militants, divided along geographical, ideological, ethnic or sectarian lines. Turkey allowed FSA to establish its headquarters in its Hatay Province close to Syria's borders. The FSA slowly gained control over many towns close to the Turkish border. By July, 2012 Iraqi officials reported that the FSA had gained control of all four border checkpoints between Syria and Iraq. In September, the rebels seized a border crossing between Syria and Turkey north of Ar-Raqqah enabling foreign fighters and aid to move in from Turkey.

FSA receives anti tank and other weapons from Israel through Golan Heights. Weapon transfers to FSA also take place through Turkey and Lebanon. FSA soldiers also received medical treatment inside Israel. Turkey turns a blind eye to movement of foreign fighters, financial and military aid that flows to FSA and other militant groups of Islamic Front and IS through its territory. The emergence of the better armed, ruthless IS on the battlefield in Syria in 2013 marked the beginning of the end for the opposition groups the US called the "moderate rebels." The moderate movement in Syria could be considered officially dead as of March 2015, when the last U.S. backed rebel faction, Harakat Hazzm, disbanded. Its members joined extremist groups such as the Nusra Front, the al Qaeda offshoot in the Syria. The Nusra Front, or Jabhat al-Nusra, has picked up thousands of men who once fought under the umbrella of the FSA from 2011 to 2014. It offers its soldiers hundreds of dollars a month in salary and food stuff. The soldiers in the FSA did not receive any monthly salary. When extremist groups such as the Nusra Front gained ground in Syria and received millions of dollars in cash and weapons from GCC, the moderate rebels had no option but to join either Al-Nusra or the IS. Both Al-Nusra and IS want an Islamic state in Syria where Sharia laws will prevail. Both are against the US which wants a secular government in Iraq run by moderate Sunni Muslims.

Christians in Syria are largely in favour of the Syrian government because they believe their survival is linked to Assad's largely secular government. Christian militias are fighting on the Syrian government's side. Thousands of Christians have joined the Syrian Army as well as militias which support the government such as National Defense Forces (NDF) and the Popular Committees. NDF is reported to have helped organize Christian units to protect their communities, particularly in north eastern Syria. A major militia called the Christian Resistance is said to be operating in the Homs province.

Shia Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon help the Syrian government in fighting rebels of all hues. Hezbollah's power in Lebanon comes from the military and economic aid it gets from Iran and the Assad regime. Hence survival of the Assad regime is vital for their very existence. Iran has expressed its support for the Syrian government since the start of the civil war and has provided it with financial, technical, and military support, including training and by some accounts some combat troops. Iran denies having sent combat troops. The Syrian government has also received arms from Russia and intelligence support directly from Russian Military Intelligence (GRU). Russia and China provide Syrian government political support at the UN. Russians intervened in Syria with air strikes and heavy weapons on the side of the Assad Government in October 2015. This has breathed new life into the exhausted Assad forces and stemmed the tide against them.

Islamic Front which is one of the groups fighting the Assad Government in Syria is a merger of seven Islamic rebel groups. They want a Sharia ruled state in Syria. However, they are not as ruthless or barbaric as the IS forces. This group is widely believed to be backed by the GCC. The FSA receives political, logistic and military support from the US, Turkey, Britain and France. Some Syrian rebels get training from the CIA at bases in Qatar, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. These bases have now closed down after US terminated its arming and training program for moderate Syrian rebels in September 2015. Turkey has been involved in some border incidents with Syria. It has also shot down some Syrian air craft and helicopters which they say intruded into Turkish air space. Qatar is reported to have funded the Syrian rebels by as much as $3 billion.

Syrian Kurds are mostly Sunni Muslims but moderate in ideology. They along with a small minority of Yezdis make up about 10 percent of the population of Syria. They suffered from decades of discrimination and neglect. When protests started against the Assad Government in 1991, Assad granted statehood to about 200,000 Kurds in an effort to win them over. Violence and state repression was thus less in Kurdish areas. Since the onset of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, the Kurds were divided on their support for the Assad Government. The Syrian Kurdish YPG first entered the Syrian Civil War in July 2012, by capturing the border town of Kobane from the Syrian government. The conflict between the Kurdish YPG and Islamic groups such as al-Nusra Front have escalated since a group of Kurds expelled Islamic Militants from the border town of Ras al-Ain. The major Syrian Kurdish opposition group, the YPG, is reported to get military, logistic and training support from US, NATO countries and Iraqi Kurdistan. They also get air support from the Americans and its allies in their fight against IS. Even Syrian Government Forces support the Kurds when they are battling the IS. Kurdish YPG has been able to recapture a lot of territory in Iraq Kurdistan from the IS including Kobane and Hasakah.

IS made rapid military gains in Northern Syria starting in April 2013. It has imposed strict Sharia law over land that it controls. The group has an estimated 7,000 to 30,000 fighters in Syria, including many non-Syrians. It has been praised as less corrupt than other militia groups and criticized for abusing human rights and for not tolerating non-Islamic militia groups, foreign journalists or aid workers. IS has expelled, imprisoned or executed these people.

Effect of the Sectarian Divide in Syria

Syrian Government forces and Hezbollah have been fighting the FSA, Islamic Front and IS for over four years on many fronts. They are exhausted and hard pressed to hold on to territories they control. Russian intervention in October 2015 and additional support from Iran have enabled them to launch an offensive on the IS near Allepo. But the boots on ground are not enough to recapture lost territories. Russians and Syrians control the air. Air support, barrel bombs and helicopter gun-ships give them an edge over their enemies during battles. But the advantage is not decisive.

FSA is almost defunct and on life support from the US, Britain and France. These Christian nations hope that FSA will prevail and establish a secular, pro West government in Syria. The Syrian National Council is a conglomerate of self seeking politicians who are enjoying five star luxuries while the people they represent are living and dying in miserable conditions. FSA is incapable of fighting and winning against Assad's forces, Islamic Front or IS. Their US and European supporters are well aware of that. They are the creation of Western Powers who do not know what to do with them without losing face.

The Islamic Front is a credible force. But it is a Sunni force as is IS. When they do fight for turf, they do so reluctantly at the bidding of their masters. They do not have any air force and only limited air defence capability. Assad and his forces rub their hands in glee when Islamic Front fights IS. Islamic Front can never defeat IS. Recently there was a call from leader of al-Qaeda to all Islamic Jihadists to unite against the West. IS will become stronger if that happens because they are the larger group and will take control.

The only credible force battling the IS in Syria is the Kurdish YPG. They have evicted IS forces from Kobane and also captured the town of Hasakah. They have thus made it difficult for IS to get aid and reinforcements through Turkey. They have retaken a number of Kurdish villages from IS and is trying to advance on ar-Raqqah. But Turkey is against American arming of the Syrian Kurds with adequate military aid and heavy weapons for the fear that a militarily strong Syrian Kurdistan, autonomous or independent, will act as a sanctuary for the Turkish Kurdish PKK militants and make it impossible for Turkey to defeat their political ambitions.

The sectarian divide in Syria makes it impossible for both Anti Assad and anti IS forces to come together and defeat their enemy. The GCC and Turkey want the Assad regime to be defeated on priority and Syria to become an Islamic state. The US and its western allies want both Assad regime and IS to be defeated. But they want Syria to remain a West leaning secular or moderate Islamic state. Russians and Iranians want Assad to stay and West to support Assad against IS. There is no common ground between US and its GCC allies on the future of Syria. The Assad regime is hard pressed to defend the territories it holds. It has no offensive capability to defeat the IS. It is obvious that the only threat if any to IS in Syria is from the Kurdish YPG. IS is in no danger of being defeated in Syria till the Assad government and FSA, the Russians and Iranian and the US coalition can come together and take on IS. That is unlikely to happen in near future.

Role of Turkey

Turkey has a long and porous border with Syria. Its policies and attitude towards the IS has a major bearing on the outcome of the fight against it.

President Erdogan has revived some Ottoman traditions. He greeted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas with an Ottoman style ceremony in the new presidential palace. While Prime Minister of Turkey, Erdogan had called his A K Party supporters 'grandsons of Ottomans'. Many critics have accused Erdogan of wanting to become an Ottoman sultan and make the Turkish Republic into an Islamic state.

President Erdogan voiced concerns to the US President during a bilateral meeting during a NATO conference in September 2014 that US aid to Kurdish fighters would enable PKK rebels to resume terrorist attacks against Turkey. In response to the US request to use a Turkish air base to conduct air strikes against Islamic State, Erdogan demanded that Syrian Government of Bashar al-Assad be removed from power first. On 12 September 2014, US Secretary of State John Kerry met Turkish leaders to secure their backing for US led action against IS, but Ankara showed reluctance to play a major or even active role. The US suspects Turkey of facilitating the passage of radical Islamist forces from Turkish territory into Syria. The Turkish governing AK Party lost it's majority in the 2015 elections The loss has slowed down Erdogan's ability to increase Islamic influence in his country. But his party has won the elections on 1Novemeber 2015. He has asked the world to respect the verdict and will certainly do what he pleases.

Turkey's relations with Syria had been friendly till 2011 when President Assad started his violent crackdown. Turkey trained defectors of the Syrian army on its territory. The FSA was created under the supervision of Turkish military intelligence. In October 2011, Turkey began sheltering the FSA and offering the group a safe base for launching operations into Syria. Together with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey has also provided Syrian rebels with arms and other military equipment. Tension between Syria and Turkey is real. During much of the Syrian Civil War, the Turkish government has allowed the IS forces to use a road network called "jihadi highway" just inside the Turkish side of the Syrian border for the movement of men and material into Syria. It is accepted by the US and its allies that there was a degree of collaboration between Turkish Intelligence services and IS. This co-operation included supplies of military hardware and spares, logistical support, financial support and provision of medical treatment. Turkey has been criticized for allowing individuals from outside the region to enter its territory and join IS forces in Syria. Turkish border patrol officers are reported to have deliberately overlooked those entering Syria upon the payment of a small bribe. An IS commander stated that "most of the fighters who joined us in the beginning of the war came via Turkey, and so did our equipment and supplies". He added that IS fighters received medical treatment in Turkish hospitals.

The relationship between Turkey and IS has not been entirely smooth. In May 2013, two car bombs exploded in the border town of Reyhanli killing 51 people injuring 140. There was another suicide attack in Istanbul carried out by a female Chechen suicide bomber apparently affiliated to IS in January 2015. In January 2015, the Turkish air force launched air strikes on Syrian territory, targeting an IS convoy inside Syria. The attack was in retaliation to IS fire on the Turkish army deployed along the Syrian border and attacks on ethnic Turkish communities in northern Syria. These attacks sparked an exodus of thousands of Syrians of Turkish origin into Turkey. During the June 2014 takeover of Mosul, IS captured the Turkish consulate and held its staff hostage. This three months long captivity of 49 people severely restricted Turkey's freedom of action. The hostages were freed in mid September 2014. It was later revealed that Turkish authorities had paid a certain amount of money to IS and the hostages were later exchanged for 180 militants who had been apprehended or undergoing medical treatment in Turkey. On 17 July, 2015, reports surfaced that kin of senior Turkish politicians ran a medical service responsible for treating injured IS fighters who reach Turkey for treatment. They have also been accused of being involved in smuggling oil produced by IS through maritime companies owned by them. Given Erdogan's desire to revive the Ottoman traditions and to degrade Kurdish YPG and PKK, his support for the IS is not very surprising.

On 24 July 2015, there was a suicide attack at the border town of Suruc which killed 30 and wounded hundreds. The responsibility for the attack was claimed by the IS. Most of those killed and injured were Turkish Kurds who had assembled to go to Kobane in Syria to rebuild it. This led to protests by Turkish Kurds who complained that Turkey was not doing enough to stop IS fighters from using Turkish territory for their activities. The suicide attack prompted Turkey to announce a major change to its policy towards IS. It air force launched four attacks on IS targets in Syria. It announced that it was permitting US air force to use its base near the Syrian border for striking at IS targets in Syria and Iraq. Its security forces carried out raids at over 100 locations and arrested over 500 suspected IS militants and PKK activists. This change in Turkish policy, if real, will give a great boost in the fight against Islamic State. However, there have been no reports of Turkish air strikes against IS targets in Syria. It is more likely that Turkey is playing a devious game. Sporadic attacks on so called IS targets are designed to fool the world. The real goal is to use its air power and other resources to assist Syrian rebels defeat the Assad regime and destroy PKK and YPG who have called off the truce following the attacks. Turkey has always wanted to create a buffer zone in Syrian territory for use by anti Assad forces and Syrian refugees as a secure base for fighting the Assad regime. It is also repeatedly attacking Kurdish PKK bases in Northern Iraq in an attempt to weaken them. Both these would actually help IS.

It may not be inappropriate to say that Turkey's role in the war against IS will determine the final outcome. Pakistani support for the Taliban in Afghanistan made it impossible for the US to defeat the Taliban and pacify Afghanistan. If Turkey keeps supporting IS with all the resources at its command, defeating IS could well nigh be impossible. If it acts against IS and stops allowing its territory for movement of foreign fighters, military and economic aid to IS, it will be a great boost in the fight against IS.

Iraqi Army

The US disbanded the Iraqi armed forces after overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and raised a new army. The new Army was originally intended to comprise of 27 battalions in three divisions numbering about 40,000 soldiers. The requirement kept on increasing with the increasing insurgency in Iraq and draw down of coalition forces. The focus of the Iraqi Army was providing security for the Iraqi people from the threat posed by the Iraqi insurgency. The first battalion of the new Iraqi Army graduated on October 4, 2003. On April 5, 2004, several Iraqi battalions refused to fight the Iraqi insurgents in Anbar Province.

The US also raised a paramilitary force called the Iraqi National Guard. Coalition commanders formed these para military units separately in each province. There were several instances where they have refused to take military action against fellow Iraqis or allegedly aided the Iraqi resistance. The force was mostly drawn from the Shia majority in Southern Iraq or the Kurdish majority in northern Iraq. Very few were Sunnis. In September 2004, a general of the Iraqi National Guard (ING) was arrested on suspicion of having links with insurgent groups. On September 20, 2004 the provisional Fallujah Brigade (ING) consisting of mostly former Sunni insurgents deserted when sent to capture Fallujah. The Fallujah Brigade experiment of using former insurgents to secure a Sunni city was not repeated. The 40,000 strong ING was merged into the regular army January 6, 2005. After national elections in December 2005, the Iraqi insurgency shifted focus from a resistance against the occupation towards a sectarian conflict against Shia domination. The Iraqi Ground Forces Command (IGFC) was established in 2006. As time passed it became evident that the Iraqi Armed Forces were incapable of putting a lid on the sectarian violence and protecting the Iraqi people.

As of July 2009, the Iraqi Army had 14 divisions, containing 56 brigades and 185 combat battalions. By April 2010, the combat battalion total had risen to 197. It is a large force but its fighting ability is pathetic. In the summer 2014, divisions and brigades of the Iraqi army were repeatedly routed in the cities of northern Iraq like Mosul, Tikrit etc. by much smaller and less well equipped force from the IS. Generals left their commands and fled. Troops abandoned their posts, arms and weapons and fled in terror. But for the Shia militias in the south and Peshmerga in the north, IS would have taken over the whole of Iraq by now.

The Iraqi armed forces have been described as being "a vast system of patronage". It is reported to have 50,000 ghost soldiers (recruited on paper but not available for fighting). Corruption is endemic. Rations and equipment received or purchased from the US end up on the black market and in the hands of IS fighters. Other problems include infiltration by sympathizers of IS, poor leadership and insufficient US advisory effort. The present Iraqi Army is not battle worthy.

Boots on the Ground in Iraq

US defence secretary Mr. Ashton Carter has repeatedly said that IS cannot be defeated without more boots on the ground. Where will these boots come from? The Iraqi army is ill trained and ill led. It is not battle worthy. US have ruled out putting any American boots on ground except for small numbers in training or advisory roles. The Europeans have hardly any infantry units. Iran could contribute boots on the ground. But the GCC and the US will not accept Iranian involvement in Iraq or Syria. The GCC has some forces but their fighting capability is unknown. In any case these Sunni regimes will never deploy their forces in support of the Shia dominated Iraqi regime. That leaves only two sources for boots on the ground in Iraq; the Peshmerga and the Shia militias.

The Peshmerga are loyal to the Kurdishtan Regional Government. The force could muster about 200,000 fighters. These forces lack heavy weapons. They have exhibited excellent fighting capabilities while defending Kurdish territory in Kirkuk and Erbil provinces against IS attempts to capture these areas. They have assisted Iraqi forces in recapturing Mosul Dam, evacuating Yezdis from Sinjar Mountain and in the battle of Baiji. But they depend on US air strikes and Iraqi artillery and armor support. Iraqi government does not want the Peshmerga to be equipped with heavy weapons because they fear that the Iraqi Kurds will seek independence once the battle with IS is over. So Peshmerga cannot be used to defeat IS.

Shia militias refer to armed groups that fight on behalf of the Shia dominated Iraqi government. There are about 30 such organizations listed in Wikipedia article on the subject. The main Shia militias are Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah-Iraq. They are the backbone of the Popular Mobilization force which has been formed by the Iraqi government since June 2014 as the pro-government paramilitary forces to fight IS. These forces are funded, armed, trained and led by the Iranian Qods force and Hezbollah from Lebanon. They are often better armed and trained than the Iraqi army. They played a key role in the recapture of Tikrit and are at the forefront of fighting in Anbar Province. Lately thousands of Sunni Muslim tribesmen disturbed by the IS's brutality have joined the Shia militias which are fighting IS forces in the Sunni areas. These new Sunni battalions consisting of 250-600 fighters have been formed in the Sunni areas in Diyala province east of Baghdad and Anbar and Salahudeen Provinces. These battalions have linked to Badr, Kataib Hezbollah-Iraq, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and other Shia militias and are fighting shoulder to shoulder with them. The main reason for this new trend is that the Shhia militias unconditionally arm, equip and train them. However, GCC and the Sunni political leadership living in safe areas or abroad are not happy with the growing importance of the Shia militias and Sunni fighters joining them. They feel that this may lead to the population of Sunni dominated areas accepting Shia domination. This does not auger well for those politicians and outsiders who seek a Sunni revival in Iraq.

The opposition of the GCC and Sunni Iraqi leaders to the extensive use of Shia militias to fight IS forces in Iraq makes it impossible for the US to allow the Iraqi government to do so. With the Peshmerga and Shia militias out of reckoning, there are no additional boots on ground to be found. So the stalemate in the fight against IS will continue.

Boots on the Ground in Syria

Additional boots on ground are also required to defeat IS in Syria. Where will they come from? Syrian government forces, Hezbollah and pro government militias are exhausted by four years of round the clock fighting. Casualties have reduced their strength. They are hard pressed to hold territories which they control. They are simply incapable of launching any major offensive to defeat IS. Air strikes and barrel bombs may cause enemy casualties and degrade their fighting capabilities. But boots on ground are required to capture and hold territory.

Al-Nusra and other Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime are supported by GCC and Turkey. But their intention is to make Syria an Islamic state under Sharia law. This idea is not appealing to the Western Nations who want a pro West moderate regime to replace the Assad regime. The US and NATO will not provide weapons or support to these forces. In fact the US has launched air strike on Al-Nusra Front positions in Syria in response to its attack on a Division 30 detachment. Al-Nusra Front is an affiliate of Al Qaeda whose primary aim is to destroy the US. The fact that it has taken years for the US to act against Al-Nusra speaks volumes about the complexities of the conflict in Syria. In any case, the Al Nusra Front is not strong enough to fight on two fronts and defeat IS in Syria and the Assad regime.

The Kurdish YPG and PKK are the only force which has pushed back the IS in Syria. It has done so with the help of military and economic aid from the US and NATO countries and air strike by the US led coalition. But Turkey does not want a strong Kurdish force on its borders for the fear that Kurdish YPG will aid Kurdish PKK in its insurgency in Turkey. Turkey had been allowing IS forces to use its soil for launching attacks on YPG. It has expressed itself against the US providing heavy weapons to the Kurdish YPG. In spite of objections from Turkey, US are trying to use Kurds against IS.

It will thus be clear that limited additional boots are available to fight IS in Syria. There are some recent indications that Russia is willing to deploy its ground and air force elements to protect the Syrian Regime and in the process protect its naval base in Syria. There are also some indications that Iran is recruiting Shia Afghans from refugee on its soil and sending them to fight for the Syrian regime. But the numbers are small and not large enough to take on the IS or the Syrian rebels. It is amazing that not a single Christian volunteer from the three billion Christians of the world have volunteered to defend Christians in Syria against IS and Islamic Front. The author considers it to be a crying shame. IS is safe in Syria for the present and the stalemate will continue.

Absence of a clear US Strategy

It is clear to one and all that the US has no clear strategy to defeat the IS. It is not even clear that it wants to see the IS defeated in Iraq and Syria. It is quite possible that like the GCC, it would be satisfied with a stalemate in Iraq. A stalemate and continued fighting satisfies its goal of keeping the GCC and its own arms industry happy.

In Syria, the US would like to see the Assad regime replaced by a moderate Muslim regime. But there are no viable moderate Muslim rebels who can defeat the Assad regime or stand up to IS or even Al-Nusra. The US attempt to create one, the "Division 30" is a miserable failure. It wanted to raise a 5000 member force and succeeded in recruiting and training 60 at a cost of $500m. These have been attacked and destroyed by the Al-Nusra Front before they could launch their first mission against the IS.

The US is quite used to shedding crocodile tears for civilian casualties, persecution of Christian minorities by IS and Al-Nusra, misery of over 80 million refugees around the world and devastation of beautiful cities and world heritage sites. They are also used to throwing a few million dollars to alleviate the suffering of the refugees and the internally displaced, many of whom are undertaking a death defying journey to Europe to escape becoming the living dead.

The US has repeatedly admitted that the IS cannot be defeated by air strikes. It has to choose between defeating IS and keeping the GCC happy. If the IS survives and expands into Jordan and Saudi Arabia, it will swallow the GCC countries, control the Suez Canal and establish a substantial Caliphate. It may then be too late to defeat it without fighting a world war.

Inability to Cut Off Support to Islamic State

Isn't it amazing that powerful countries like the US and EU can impose economic sanctions and arms embargoes on large countries like Russia and Iran but are totally powerless to enforce arms embargoes on IS and other militant organizations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, Libya, Nigeria and many other countries? We have heard of famines affecting countries but have we ever heard of a terrorist organization being without adequate arms and ammunition? Argentina, Greece and Porto Rico may have defaulted on their debts but is there any militant organization in the world that does not have enough money to pay its messengers of death or buy arms, ammunition and communication equipment.

Cutting off Supply of Weapons, Ammunition, Equipments and Spares

One of the primary requirements for defeating IS is to make sure that they do not receive weapons, ammunition, equipment and spares. They have captured or bought large quantities of sophisticated military hardware like tanks, Humvees, vehicles, artillery, anti air craft guns and so on. But they do not have factories which manufacture the large variety of spares and ammunition that are required to keep their war machines in shape. So how are they able to fight pitched battles on multiple fronts for years? Just as the US supplied the Afghan militants during Soviet occupation, Pakistan supplies the Taliban, some of the GCC countries and Turkey are supplying or allowing supplies to pass through their countries to IS. Elements in the Iraqi army are also selling arms, ammunition and spares to the IS. Unless this can be reduced, IS cannot be defeated.

Cutting off Financial Support and Fund Raising

It is true that IS was initially receiving financial aid from non state actors in the GCC. It also got hold of half a billion dollar on capture of Mosul. But it costs a lot of money to maintain a large army, to pay for arms, ammunition and spares and bribe officials in countries through which supplies must pass. Part of this comes from smuggling crude oil produced in areas held by it in Iraq and Syria. But this smuggling is not possible without connivance of Turkey. IS makes money by capturing hostages and collecting ransom. The hostages may be captured in other countries like Croatian tourists in Egypt or foreign oil workers in Libya. Non state actors in GCC and other countries must be collecting money on their behalf and acting as their bankers. Unless this money supply can be cut off, it will be difficult to defeat IS.

Cutting off Inflow of Foreign Fighters

Foreign fighters like the Khorasan Brigade are very important fighting elements of IS. Many of them have fought in Afghanistan and Russia. They provide battle experience and leadership. European foreign fighters provide access to technology. There could be over 30,000 foreign fighters fighting for the IS. Whereas the Saudi, Turkish and Jordanian Jihadis can just walk across the border and join IS forces, foreign fighters from other countries have to come through either Turkey or Lebanon. The Sunni dominated Lebanon border is only 20 to 30 km wide and has only a limited infiltration potential. But the Turkey-Syria border is almost 1000 km long and some of it is in rebel hands. Turkey had been the main transit route for foreign fighters for IS and other rebel groups. Unless the inflow of foreign fighters can be stopped, it will be difficult to defeat IS. The onus is on Turkey. Will it change from a clandestine ally of the IS to its enemy and invite their wrath and car bomb and suicide attacks?

Conclusion

The world agrees that IS must be defeated. But opinions differ widely on how this should be achieved. Saudi Arabia, for example, believes that IS cannot be defeated unless Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is removed from power. Turkey also seconds this view. In addition Turkey has now convinced NATO that IS can only be defeated if Turkey's traditional Kurdish opponents, the PKK are neutralized first. Israel has declared that the only one way to defeat IS is to destroy Iran's nuclear program and clip its wings regionally.

America's strategy is difficult to comprehend. It has carried out the almost 6000 air strikes on IS targets in both Iraq and Syria over the past one year. It has also provided air support and US Special Forces to Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. Many NATO members have provided weapons including anti tank missiles to Iraqi and Kurdish forces. President Barack Obama wants to defeat IS without American boots on the ground. It also does not want to go against the wishes of its GCC allies even if it means that IS cannot be defeated. The absence of a clear policy seems to give credence to the view that the US is not interested in defeating the IS. It wants the fighting to continue. Fighting around the world is great for the American arms industry and the economy. So what if the total number of refugees in the world has increased to over 80 million and prosperous cities in more and more countries are being reduced to rubble. So what if hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria and Iraq are pouring into Europe.

It is also a fact that America has never won a war since World War II. Korean Conflict has been frozen. Americans got tired and withdrew from Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia, Lebanon and Afghanistan without achieving their strategic objectives. With the Atlantic Ocean to isolate it from potential threat from IS, it can afford to allow the war against IS to linger. Can Europe and the Middle East countries to do that without getting singed by the conflict?

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Chapter 5: Options before US Led Coalition

Starting in August 2014, the US assembled a global coalition of 60 countries to fight the IS. Prominent countries which are not a part of the coalition are Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Britain, France, Netherlands, Canada, Australia, Jordan and the GCC are the most active members of the Coalition. Some countries like UK, France, Australia, Jordan and the GCC have contributed aircraft for air strikes and/or provided military aid, military advisers and trainers to Syrian rebels, Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Other countries like Japan offered humanitarian effort to assist ethnic minorities in northern Iraq who had fled in the face of attacks by IS forces into Iraqi Kurdistan and other areas.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a political and economic union consisting of all Arab States bordering the Persian Gulf except Iraq. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are its members. It was set up in 1981. The main goals of the Council are economic. The council hopes to create a unified military command known as the Peninsular Protection Force. GCC members and Jordan are carrying out air strikes against IS in cooperation with the US. They are allowing the use of their airbases by other countries of the Coalition. The outcome of the fight against the IS will depend mainly on the actions taken by Saudi Arabia, GCC, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and the US. So let us examine the options available to these countries and the effect of their actions.

Options before Sunni Arab States

IS is a Sunni Salafist Jihadi group. So when Sunni Arab States fight the IS, it is a Sunni vs Sunni fight. This makes GCC reluctant members of the Coalition. Unfortunately the IS, by wanting to create a Caliphate, is threatening their very existence. That leaves them very few options. But the GCC do not seem to appreciate and acknowledge the threat the IS poses to them.

Options before Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the most important country in the GCC. It is the undisputed leader of Sunni Arab States. It is the largest and richest among them. It has the best equipped armed forces in the region. It houses the holy sites of Mecca and Medina. It is this that makes them especially vulnerable. All the earlier Caliphates controlled these holy sites. In fact, the Ottoman Sultan assumed the title of Caliph only after he wrested the control of the holy sites in 1517 from the Mamluk Sultanate. Saudi Arabia has four options.

First option is to stick to the present policy of supporting the Syrian rebels to overthrow the Assad regime while leaving it to the Iraqi government and the US led Coalition to contain IS in Iraq and Syria. This is the most likely option it will follow. However, it is unlikely that IS can allow the House of Saud to rule over the holy cities of Mecca and Medina and still claim to be the Fifth Caliphate. So the danger of following this option is that IS will go all out to depose the House of Saud.

The second option is to accept suzerainty of the IS in return for being declared the Emir of Saudi Arabia. This would be a bitter pill to swallow for the House of Saud. But it will ensure that they are not dethroned and forced into exile in the US.

The third option is to accept the Russian proposal to include the Assad regime into the US Coalition against IS in defeating it in Syria. This would be a great relief to the US and European countries who do not want one of the cradle of Christianity, Syria, turned into an Islamic country following Sharia law. It will also improve the chances of the IS being defeated in Syria.

The fourth option is to use the ground troops of the Peninsular Protection Force along with those of Jordan to launch an attack on the IS in the Anbar Province in Iraq and help the Iraqi government and the US coalition in defeating the IS State in Iraq. This in conjunction with option three is best for defeating the IS and ensuring the survival of the House of Saud and the GCC.

It is possible that the House of Saud is confident of its survival. In this context it may like to remember that ruling dynasties come and go. It it overthrew the Hashemite Emir of the Hejaz Kingdom (comprising the coastal area of Saudi Arabia including the holy cities of Mecca and Medina) in 1925 and established the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Sultan of Egypt, Faud II, was over thrown by an army coup in 1953.The Hashemite king of Iraq was deposed in a military coup in 1958. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi of Iran was deposed by the Iranian Revolution of 1979 in spite of enjoying full US support.

The Saudi Army has a strength of 75,000. The kingdom also has 24,500 paramilitary forces called the National Guard which is mainly a tribal based militia. The National Guard is an autonomous force under its own ministry and plays a role both in internal security and conventional defence. However, the fighting capability of the army is untested. The army has been chronically under strength. Some units are estimated to be at 30 to 50 percent strength. These shortages have been aggravated by a relaxed policy that permits considerable absenteeism. The fact that it sought help from Pakistan to protect its borders with Yemen is not very reassuring. But offence is the best defence. The only way the House of Saud can ensure its survival is by destroying the Islamic State by defeating it in Iraq and Syria.

Options before Gulf Cooperation Council

The other members of the GCC are small rich countries with very little fighting capability. If the IS manages to take over Saudi Arabia, they will take over the rest of GCC in a matter of days. The survival of GCC depends on the destruction of IS. They have two options. The first is to stick to the present policy of concentrating on helping Syrian rebels defeat the Assad regime in Syria and maintaining status quo in Iraq and risk being deposed by IS. The second is to do all it takes to destroy the IS.

Options before Jordan

Jordan is already a member of the US Coalition against IS and is taking part in air strikes. So it is an area for expansion of the IS. Capturing Marfaq region of Jordan will help IS to out flank the Saudi defences on the Saudi-Iraqi border and give them access to the Red Sea. Jordan is a poor country which survives on US military and economic aid. It has internal problems. Protests against the monarchy began in January 2011 as a part of Arab Spring. Its rural areas are dominated by Bedouin tribes. What if Jordanian Bedouins shift their loyalties to the IS? Over 2000 Jordanians are said to be fighting for the IS in Iraq and Syria. That indicates that IS has some support amongst the population. Jordan has a long and porous border with Syria and Iraq in the sparsely populated Marfaq Province. IS is advancing towards its borders in Syria. It is already in control in the adjoining Anbar province of Iraq. Jordan is providing weapons to the Druze community and Bedouins on its border as its first line of defence. Jordan has two options.

The first option is that it waits for the IS to attack it and hope that it never does. All indications are that this is the option that it has opted to take. But a defensive approach hands over the initiative to the enemy and allows him to select the place and time of attack. With a long border and limited availability of troops, this is a risky option.

The second option is to join forces with Iraq and attack IS in Anbar Province. A surprise attack on IS in Anbar Province could bring about its defeat and force it to pull out of Anbar Province. It will help if Saudi Arabia joins the offensive. Attack is the best defence.

The Jordanian army was reported to be 88,000 strong. The army is divided into four commands and a strategic reserve. All of the commands are under the King's control. The army is said to be well trained but it is untested in battle. It will find it difficult to recapture territory captured by IS. If the strategic reserve is used for the offensive, it could well tilt the balance against IS. Morale of troops is higher when they are on the offensive and lower when they are on the defensive in isolated penny packets.

Options before Egypt

Egypt has traditionally been a part of the Islamic Caliphates. The IS is already active in Egypt through its franchise in Sinai region. It has carried out a number of car bomb and suicide attacks in main land Egypt. It has abducted foreign tourists for ransom. Elements of the Muslim Brotherhood who are being brutalized by the security forces could be preparing for revenge and can be counted upon to collaborate with IS forces if and when an opportunity presents itself. Can Egypt hope to avoid fighting IS? Egypt has two options.

The first option is to ignore the rise of IS and the danger it poses and try to defeat its elements in the Sinai. It is difficult to fight guerrilla warfare in the difficult terrain that the Sinai is. It is particularly so when the populations has been denied economic development and is hostile.

The second option it to offer the US Coalition a force of a few divisions to fight IS in Iraq as additional boots on the ground. The troops could be deployed through Saudi Arabia and Jordan and used in conjunction with troops from Jordan and Saudi Arabia to evict IS forces from Anbar Province of Iraq.

The Egyptian Army is the largest army in both the Middle East and Africa. It is estimated strength is around 450,000. It should be able to put at the disposal of the US coalition at least one corps consisting of over 50,000 troops with tanks, artillery and attack helicopters. This corps should be the core of the offensive force launched to defeat IS in Anbar Province and to recapture of Mosul. The fighting capability of the Egyptian army is unknown. They did not perform well in the Arab-Israel Wars and were routed by smaller Israeli forces. However, the IS has no air force. Such a force should be able to defeat the far less equipped forces which IS can muster in Anbar Province and at Mosul. If defeated in Iraq, IS has no chance to survive in Syria.

Options before Turkey

Turkey's attitude towards IS is an enigma. Its clandestine support has enabled the IS to be what it is today. This support is likely to increase after the victory of Islamists over secularist in the recent election. Turkey has supported the IS to get rid of Assad and subdue the Kurds. But the Caliphate visualized by IS will certainly include Turkey. Does Erdogan hope to revive the Ottoman Caliphate and be the Caliph in place of Baghdadi? Turkey has two options.

The first option is to continue its undeclared support for IS in the hope that it along with the other Syrian rebels will defeat the Assad regime and Kurds and make Syria a Sunni Arab State. If this option succeeds, it hopes it will be able to get rid of the Syrian refugees. But it may not be that simple. Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1990. Fighting between Government troops and Taliban still continues. Many of the Afghan refugees are still in Pakistan. A similar situation may develop in Syria, The fighting between Al-Nusra and other Syrian rebels and the IS may continue after Assad is ousted making it impossible for Syrian refugees to return to their country.

The second option is that Turkey honestly cuts off the movement of military aid, logistic support and movement of foreign fighters through its territory and seals off its border with Syria. This will be a great blow to the IS and make it difficult for it to sustain itself. But such a move may also affect the fighting capability of Syrian rebels as it may be difficult for Turkey to be sure to whom military aid and logistic support is going and which group the foreign fighters will join. This option will help Assad regime.

Options before United States

The US has assembled a coalition of over 60 partners with the goal of eliminating the threat posed by IS. The Coalition aims to providing military support to Iraqi government, Syrian rebels and Kurds with the aim of defeating the IS. The Coalition also aims to reduce the flow of foreign fighters; stopping financing and funding of the IS. It also aims to address the humanitarian crises in the region. The Coalition has carried out over 6000 air strikes on IS targets but with limited success. It has been able to push the IS out of Tikrit and Diyala Province in Iraq and Kobane and Hasakah areas in Syria. Russia has also assembled a coalition in support of Assad Regime. But by and large, the IS has been able to hold on to areas which it has captured and continues suicide attacks, car bombings, kidnappings in areas outside the territories it holds. The lack of success in evicting IS from Anbar Province and other areas have critics of the US strategy getting more and more vocal. The US has essentially three options.

The first option is to continue to do more of the same thing. This is unlikely to produce any tangible results. Status quo will enable the IS to consolidate its hold on areas it has captured, regroup and foray into Jordan and try to destabilize Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan and Libya.

The second option is to coax its Coalition into accepting the Russian proposal. Russia, has called for the US and its Coalition partners, particularly Europeans to switch policy and recognize Syrian regime of President Assad as a partner in the fight against IS. Peace in Syria or even a cease fire will reduce the refugee crisis which is swamping Greece and Italy and will affect Europe in the long run. The Assad regime will protect the minorities and Western values and culture. Islamic Syrian rebels like the Al-Nusra Front will make Syria an Islamic state under Sharia law. That in turn will force the remaining Christians and other minorities in Syria to seek refuge in Europe.

The third option is that the Coalition finds additional boots on ground by arming the Kurds and using them against the IS in the north and coaxing Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to come together and launch an attack on IS forces in Anbar province. The two forces can go for the recapture of Mosul after IS Forces are evicted from Anbar Province. US have already started assisting the Kurds.

It is unlikely that there will be unanimity in the Coalition on the second and third options. Can the US bulldoze its partners into accepting these options?

Conclusion

The options in front of the US led Coalition are simple. Do they want to continue to play games and nurture their own national agendas or are they willing to set aside their national priorities and come together to defeat IS by offensive action with additional boots on ground from the Kurdsish YPG, PKK and Peshmerga, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. What they will do will depend on how seriously they take the threat to their own monarchies from the IS.

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Chapter 6: Future Gazing

Future gazing is difficult in today's ever changing world. I never anticipated the precipitous fall in prices of crude oil and gold. I had never heard of ISIL before its forces routed the Iraqi army and captured Mosul in June 2014. I had never heard of the Houtis till they took over Sana in Yemen early 2014. But how can any individual or country prepare for the future without future gazing? So if the world is to defeat the IS, we must anticipate its moves to expand its Caliphate and defeat his designs.

Islamic State

IS forces have serious limitations. The first and most important limitation is that the sky belongs to the US led coalition and Russians. They have no means to stop the air strikes. This means that they would not be able to launch any major offensive. The battles of Kobane, Hasakah, Mosul Dam, Beiji and Tikrit have established that. The second limitation is boot on ground. They will keep trying to recruit fighter all around the world by their propaganda and offer of sex slaves and other luxuries. But it is unlikely that they will be able to infiltrate them into Syria or Iraq in large numbers. They may conscript fighters from the areas they control. But such conscripts will lack training and motivation and may not be very useful. The third limitation is to get adequate military hardware, equipment and spares to make up for the expenditure and provide surplus for offensive operations.

Islamic State Activities in Iraq

In Iraq, the IS will try to consolidate its hold on Mosul, Baiji and Nineveh and Anbar Provinces. It will continue to carry out suicide bombings using sleeper cells in Baghdad, Diyalia and Salahuddin Provinces.

Islamic State Activities in Syria

In Syria, IS will try to seize control of as many border crossings with Turkey and Lebanon as possible. For that it will have to fight a resurgent Syrian Government forces supported by Russia, Kurdish YPG and PKK supported by US coalition, Al-Nusra Front and other Syrian rebels. They are doing just that around Alleppo. Here also it is unlikely make major gains except towards the sparsely populated south.

Islamic State outside Iraq and Syria

With IS unable to expand much inside Iraq and Syria, it will try to expand elsewhere and gain strength. In trying to expand it would like to go for soft targets which will enable them to capture weapons and equipment, enrich their coffers and open up routes for movement of military aid and foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria. The likely areas of expansion are discussed in the succeeding paragraphs.

IS in Jordan

Jordan is likely to be the next target for expansion for IS forces. Its Mafraq province is located at the northeast corner of the country bordering Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and is the most suitable target. The Eastern Command of the Jordanian army is located at Mafraq for defending the Province. But IS forces may not try to capture Mafraq but the two remote but strategically important towns of Ruwaished and Azraq.

Ruwaished town is the farthest Jordanian settlement to the east about 160 km from Mafraq. The Karameh Border Crossing between Jordan and Iraq is in this district. Ruwaished district is sparsely populated. It is on the desert highway connecting Jordan to Iraq. There is also a military airport in Ruwaished. The town thus has strategic importance.

Azraq town is a small but important settlement. It lies about half way between Mafraq and Ruwaished towns. The town is the only permanent source of fresh water in approximately 12,000 square km of desert. There is a fort which over looks the town. It is also of great strategic importance.

Capture of Mafraq Province will enable IS to attack the three northern provinces of Saudi Arabia.

IS in Saudi Arabia

Northern Saudi Arabia bordering Jordan consists of three provinces; Northern Borders Province, Al Jawaf Province and Tabuk Province. This oil producing region with access to the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea will be definitely targeted by the IS. Northern Border Province (Capital Arar) borders both Iraq and Jordan. Arar serves as a significant logistic centre on the Saudi Arabian Highway 85. A security fence runs along the province's border with Iraq. Al Jawaf province borders Jordan. Its capital Sakaka is an oasis town. Saudi government has been pouring money to develop this economically backward region. of the kingdom. The province is isolated and Saudi forces will find it difficult to react to any attack on it. Tabuk Province borders Jordan, Israel, Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea. Its capital is Tabuk. It faces Egypt across the Red Sea. Capture of this district will open a second land route into areas held by IS in Iraq and Syria. Capture of the area will also facilitate IS expansion into Egypt.

IS cannot claim to have established a caliphate till it has captured Mecca and Medina. For that they have to dethrone the House of Saud. They need to capture the three northern provinces and destabilize the Saudi regime to do that. IS is carrying out bombings in Saudi Arabia. If it can capture the Northern Provinces, it will make it difficult for Saudi Arabia to fight IS in the north and Houthis in the south.

IS in Egypt

IS is already active in Sinai through its franchise. It has a few cells operating in mainland Egypt. These cells have carried out bombings, abduction of tourists and a beheading. Such small scale terrorist activities will continue in an effort to weaken the government. If the members of the Muslim Brotherhood start an insurgency in Egypt, IS will certainly assist them. But it is unlikely to launch a full scale attack on Egypt in near future. Egypt has always been a part of Islamic Caliphates. IS would love to rule over it and gain the use of its vast stockpile of weapons of war. They will find it easier to unseat President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi through popular revolt than military action.

IS in Libya

IS has taken advantage of the political instability in Libya and taken control of parts of the country including slain dictator Col Gaddafi's home town Sirte. The Libyan Government is unable to mount an offensive to recapture Sirte and has requested Saudi Arabia for air strike on IS targets. Resistance by local militias is being ruthlessly put down. However, IS forces have been forced out of the coastal city of Derna by local militias. This may be a temporary setback for IS. IS will try to take control of Libya and its oil wealth. Whether they will succeed or not remains to be seen.

IS and Turkey

Relations between IS and Turkey will depend largely on the actions of Turkey. Turkey has been helping the IS. This is likely to continue now that Islamist AKP has won the elections. If it continues to do so, the relations between the two will remain peaceful. But if Turkey tries to attack IS targets and stops allowing the use of its territories and services by IS forces, IS is likely to retaliate with car bombs and suicide attacks on civilian targets inside Turkey. However, Turkey is more likely to try to use IS to defeat the Kurdish PKK and YPG. With the US and the Western nations supporting the Kurds, the outcome of this strategy is unpredictable.

IS in Afghanistan

IS wants to take control of Afghanistan for a number of reasons. It calls it its "Khorasan" Project. Khorasan is the ancient name of present day central Asia. Its warriors have been renowned from ancient times for their fighting skills and ruthlessness. The region had been a part of the Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates. The US has left behind a huge and sophisticated stockpile of weapons with the Afghan army. If these fall into IS hands, it will substantially increase its fighting capabilities. IS may also be able to recruit additional fighters from amongst the hundreds of thousands of battle hardened Jihadists who are available in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is also one of world's largest producers of opium and consequently earns billions of dollars from sale of the drug. Control of this money will help IS fund its expansion. IS will therefore go all out in its efforts to take control of Afghanistan. It is reported that the powerful Afghan militant group Hezb e-Islami and its leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar are supporting IS in its efforts to take over Afghanistan. Afghan army is weak and low in morale after suffering huge casualties from car bomb and suicide attacks. This was demonstrated by its defeat at Kunduz. It is doubtful if it is capable of stopping the IS forces. A turf war between IS force and the combine of Taliban and al Qaeda is in progress and IS seems to be gaining ground. The US can do nothing but launch air strikes. Air strikes alone have never stopped IS forces. Pakistan is unable to control Pakistani Taliban in Waziristan and other tribal areas. They may not want to fight in Afghanistan. It is also unlikely that Afghan government will allow Pakistani army into Afghanistan. So who will stop the IS's march across Afghanistan?

Conclusion

IS has been contained in Iraq and Syria. But it has not been defeated. It is expanding in Afghanistan and Libya and will take control of these two war torn and politically unstable countries unless the US led coalition are able to defeat it. There is no serious effort or workable strategy to defeat it. Russia seems to have made up its mind to protect the Assad regime in Syria at all cost. To do that it will have to deploy large military resources and fight the Syrian rebels and IS. That could make life difficult for Syrian rebels and also IS and increase human misery.

It is also surprising that the Christian world has abandoned the Christians of Syria and Iraq. There is no appeal from Pope or the Greek Orthodox Church to Christians to save Christians in Syria or Iraq. In today's material world it is common for societies to abandon the aged. So why should the Christians worry about the fate of unknown Third World Christians. The endless influx of Syrian and other refugees into Europe may force the EU and NATO to cooperate with Russia, stop the fighting in Syria and get physically involved in fighting the Islamic State.

It is also expected that Islamic State will attack Jordan and Saudi Arabia in an effort to o pen another route for foreign fighters and military aid to flow. It will also try to overthrow the House of Saud and take control of Saudi Arabia. Will a caliphate which does not control the holy cities of Mecca and Medina be accepted by the Muslims of the world to be a caliphate? Saudi Arabia and the GCC are wasting their energies fighting the Houthis in Yemen and could soon find themselves too weak to fight the IS.

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Prologue

The Kurds believe the only way to defeat IS is to fight it with all resources at the world's disposal. It's a disappointingly simple strategy. The world would be a safer and better place if all the stake holders could agree with the Kurds. But can they? Given the divergence of views amongst the US led Coalition and with Russia on how to fight the IS, the Fifth Caliphate is here to stay.

In the end may I leave you to ponder if the fight against IS is a fight between godlessness and religious extremism? Most countries of the world are secular. 41 percent of the population of Western Europe are atheists. We live in a materialistic society. There is constant pressure on us to achieve and to acquire. Advertisements on the television, news papers and magazines goad us all the time to live an opulent lifestyle, to acquire more possessions, to look sexy and to have more sex. We want our possessions to be the source of our pride, social status and the cause of envy of our neighbours. All this requires large amounts of money. Acquiring more money often requires long hours of work accompanied by neglect of family, particularly children and sometimes shady, unethical or even criminal work practices. Premarital sex and post marital infidelity are in fashion. Internet sites are offering pornography and contacts for extra marital affairs as per ones sexual fantasies. Live in relations are on the way in and marriages except between same sex partners are on the way out. One third of the children born in the US, UK and Australia are born to single mothers. Population in non Muslim societies is shrinking because women do not want to have babies. Unemployment is high, particularly among the youth. Job security is lacking. Real incomes are falling. Income inequalities are increasing. Share markets are volatile. Unending competition, from kinder garden school to retirement, from the workplace to the bedroom, is killing.

The Old Testament laid down the Ten Commandments, which are recapitulated below:

You shall have no other gods before me.

You shall not make for yourself an idol.

You shall not misuse the name of the Lord your God.

Remember the Sabbath day by keeping it holy.

Honour your father and mother.

You shall not murder.

You shall not commit adultery.

You shall not steal.

You shall not give false testimony against your neighbour.

You shall not covet... anything that belongs to your neighbours.

The modern Western society has rejected all of them. Wealth is our God. Political leaders, terrorists, crooks, industrialists, sportsmen, actors, actresses, scantily clad models and DJ s are our idols. We misuse the name of God to gain political power or money. We do not keep Sabbath. We do not respect our elders or ancestors. We maim and kill for money, power and love. We have successfully destroyed peaceful and prosperous countries like Syria, Iraq, Libya and not so prosperous ones like Gaza, Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Somalia, etc by trying to impose our political ideology by military means. Millions of civilians, women and children have been killed in fighting and air strikes. Beautiful cities and ancient heritage sites have been reduced to rubble. Over 80 million people have fled their homes to escape war and become refugees in other countries. Many more millions are being daily internally displaced by sectarian conflict. Adultery is common and encouraged by the cosmetic industry. We steal whatever and whenever we safely can. We are ever ready use paid news and doctored statistics to convince people and justify what we do. And we covet all our neighbour's possessions. The Pope urges governments, multinational corporations and us to preserve nature; preserve the family; preserve moral values and care for the poor. Is anyone listening?

Compare this life with life in Ar-Raqah, the capital of the IS. Man can have four wives and sex slaves who are non Muslims. A woman has to be covered from head to toe when going out of the house and be accompanied by a male relative. A girl is married off at thirteen. Drinking, smoking, listening to music, seeing TV is banned and punished with lashing or beheading in public places. Adultery is punished by death by stoning. Praying and fasting have to be carried out as per Islamic practices and offenders are severely punished. Families live and eat together often from the same plate. The population is exploding. There is no individual freedom. The head of the family takes all decisions.

Can there be a meeting ground between the two? Can we learn to live and let live? Can we stop free flow of arms and ammunition to the battle grounds of the world and ensure free flow of food, shelter, healthcare and education to the needy? Can we stop air strikes from killing innocent women and children and destroying homes, schools and hospitals? Can we stop politicians who are living in exile in five star comforts from spreading misery on the men, women and children they claim to represent and from refusing compromises that can lead to peace?

Can peace and pragmatism win?

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Bibliography

Preface

Chapter 1: Birth and Rise of Islamic State

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic State _of_Iraq_and_the _Levant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabiq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baiji,_Iraq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//First_Battle_of_Tikrit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinai_insurgency

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Tikrit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boko_Haram

Who are Boko Haram Islamists? By Farouk Choutia, BBC Africa 4 May 2015

Chapter 2: Understanding Islamic State

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/rashidun_Caliphate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbasid_Caliphate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umayyad_Caliphate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Caliphate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SalafIslamic Statem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WahibIslamic Statem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood

Chapter 3: Battle Lines as in July 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//Iranian_intervention_in_Iraq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki// Dier_Ez-Zor_battle

"Revealed: Saudi Arabia's 'Great Wall' to keep out Isil" By Richard Spencer, Middle East Correpondent, The Telegraph UK 14 January 2015.

ww.rt.com/news/236837 and 232343

dailymail.co.uk/news/article3097093

 http://www.toledoblade.com/World/2015/07/18/Anger-in-Iraq-s-Diyala-province

www.haartez.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.667092

Chapter 4: Reasons for Lack of Success

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ 1935-36_Iraqi_Shia_Revolts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq-Iran_War

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Iraq-Kurd_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Iraq-Kurd_War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_uprising_in_Iraq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Shi_uprising_in_Iraq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

"House of Cards" article by Talmiz Ahmad, Frontline Magazine August 22, 2014

 ww.haartez.com/news/middle-east/.premium-1.667092

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip/Erdogan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War

https://middleeasteye/news/iraqi_sunnis_join_shia_militias /520291745

Chapter 5: Options before US led Coalition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Cooperation_Council

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabian_Army

defensenews.com/.../ Saudi-Arabia/ 70494532

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Army

Chapter 6: Future Gazing

Prologue

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Bhaskar Sarkar was born at Calcutta, India in 1940. He graduated in civil engineering in 1963 and joined the Corps of Engineers of the Indian Army and hung his boots after 28 years of distinguished service in the rank of Colonel. A keen student of military history, economics and international affairs, he has eleven published books and 5 e books. Other books by the Author are:

Pakistan Seeks Revenge and God Saves. India ISBN 81-85462-11-9. Fiction.

Tackling Insurgency and Terrorism. ISBN 81-7094-291-8. Non fiction.

Kargil War, Past Present and Future. ISBN, 1-897829-61-2. Non Fiction.

Outstanding Victories of the Indian Army. ISBN 1-897829-73-6 . Non Fiction.

Thirty Nine Steps to Happiness. Non Fiction. 81-248-0142-8

Practical Approach to Vaastu Shastra. (A Peacock Book)

Earthquakes, All we need to know about them. ISBN 978-81-248-0188-8. Non Fiction.

**Nationalism: Economic Strategy for Survival of Developing Countries. ISBN 978-81-269-1093-9.**

**An Introduction to Religions of the World. ISBN 978-81-269-1339-8. Non Fiction.**

**Who is Afraid of the Chinese Dragon? I am. Non Fiction. (A Peacock Book)**

**Tackling the Maoist Menace. ISBN 978-81-269-1636-8. Non Fiction.**

Bhaskar Sarkar's Author Profile on Smashwords is: <http://www.smashwords.com/profile/view/Bhaskarsarkar1940> . He has 6 published e books;

Fight Class War Now: http://smashwords.com/b/206829 .This book asks the American people to vote for President Obama and the Democrats.

Be A Rational Pessimist: http://smashwords.com/b/177158 . A Rational Pessimist hopes for the best but prepares for the worst.

Occupiers of Wall Street: Losers or Game Changers: <http://smashwords.com/b/175532> . The book is an analysis of the movement "Occupiers of Wall Street".

Homeopathy for Prevention of Diseases and Self Medication: http://smashwords.com/b/229505 . This book encourages the readers to try self medication with Homeopathy.

Growth and Decline of Economies of Europe and US: http://smashwords.com/b/231033 . This book analyses the economy of Europe and the US.

The President Takes Over: http://smashwords.com/b/238615 . The author fantasizes an Indian President declaring emergency and cleansing the corrupt Indian political system

