THANK YOU, SIR. GOOD TO SEE YOU AND I’M SURE
GOOD TO SEE YOU AND I’M SURE WE’LL BE CHECKING IN AS THAT
WE’LL BE CHECKING IN AS THAT SENATE RACE WITH MR. McCONNELL
SENATE RACE WITH MR. McCONNELL HEATS UP.
HEATS UP. JOINING ME NOW, LARRY DIRECTOR
JOINING ME NOW, LARRY DIRECTOR OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS.
CENTER FOR POLITICS. AND DAVE WASSERMAN AND NBC NEWS
AND DAVE WASSERMAN AND NBC NEWS CONTRIBUTOR.
CONTRIBUTOR. DAVE, YOU JUST HEARD FROM
DAVE, YOU JUST HEARD FROM PHILLIP BAILIE THERE IT WAS A
PHILLIP BAILIE THERE IT WAS A VERY -- PUT IT THIS WAY -- THE
VERY -- PUT IT THIS WAY -- THE DNC’S NOT SENDING AROUND THOSE
DNC’S NOT SENDING AROUND THOSE TALKING POINTS, ARE THEY?
TALKING POINTS, ARE THEY? BASICALLY SAYING, WEIRDLY ENOUGH
BASICALLY SAYING, WEIRDLY ENOUGH REPUBLICANS ARE SECRETLY HAPPY
REPUBLICANS ARE SECRETLY HAPPY ABOUT THIS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
ABOUT THIS ALMOST AS MUCH AS DEMOCRATS ARE.
DEMOCRATS ARE. INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE.
INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE. >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. AND IT WAS REALLY NORTHERN
AND IT WAS REALLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY IN THOSE SUBURBS THAT
KENTUCKY IN THOSE SUBURBS THAT WHERE WE SAW THE BIGGEST EROSION
WHERE WE SAW THE BIGGEST EROSION FOR MATT BEVIN VERSUS 2015.
FOR MATT BEVIN VERSUS 2015. WE SAW DEMOCRATS ADVANCE FURTHER
WE SAW DEMOCRATS ADVANCE FURTHER IN THE SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA.
IN THE SUBURBS IN VIRGINIA. IN 2020, THERE WON’T BE A SINGLE
IN 2020, THERE WON’T BE A SINGLE STATE OR FEDERAL OFFICE HOLDER
STATE OR FEDERAL OFFICE HOLDER REPRESENTING FAIRFAX COUNTY
REPRESENTING FAIRFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA IN RICHMOND OR
VIRGINIA IN RICHMOND OR WASHINGTON.
WASHINGTON. SO THAT SUBURBAN ADVANCE FOR
SO THAT SUBURBAN ADVANCE FOR DEMOCRATS CONTINUES ON.
DEMOCRATS CONTINUES ON. >> LARRY, THIS FEELS AS IF THIS
>> LARRY, THIS FEELS AS IF THIS WAS AN ELECTION NIGHT THAT JUST
WAS AN ELECTION NIGHT THAT JUST REINFORCED PRE-EXISTING NOTIONS
REINFORCED PRE-EXISTING NOTIONS THAT WE ALL HAD.
THAT WE ALL HAD. AND ALL OF THE RESULTS SORT OF,
AND ALL OF THE RESULTS SORT OF, OH, YEP.
OH, YEP. TRUMP’S STILL GOT SUBURBAN
TRUMP’S STILL GOT SUBURBAN PROBLEMS.
PROBLEMS. YEP.
YEP. STILL A RURAL URBAN DIVIDE.
STILL A RURAL URBAN DIVIDE. YEP.
YEP. YOU KNOW, CERTAIN -- OH, OBAMA
YOU KNOW, CERTAIN -- OH, OBAMA CARE CAN PLAY IN EVERY CORNER IN
CARE CAN PLAY IN EVERY CORNER IN THIS COUNTRY.
THIS COUNTRY. IT FEELS AS IF EVERYTHING
IT FEELS AS IF EVERYTHING REINFORCED WHAT WE ALREADY KNEW.
REINFORCED WHAT WE ALREADY KNEW. OR AT LEAST WE THINK.
OR AT LEAST WE THINK. >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. NO.
NO. I THINK THAT’S TRUE.
I THINK THAT’S TRUE. WE DIDN’T HAVE TO LEARN ANY NEW
WE DIDN’T HAVE TO LEARN ANY NEW LESSONS AT LEAST NOT HERE IN
LESSONS AT LEAST NOT HERE IN VIRGINIA.
VIRGINIA. SO I’M HAPPY ABOUT THAT.
SO I’M HAPPY ABOUT THAT. >> NOT YET.
>> NOT YET. >> NOT YET.
>> NOT YET. NOT YET.
NOT YET. BUT WHAT YOU JUST SAID IS TRUE.
BUT WHAT YOU JUST SAID IS TRUE. THIS IS A 20-25 YEAR PROCESS.
THIS IS A 20-25 YEAR PROCESS. CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS THAT
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS THAT FRANKLY HAVE BEEN PUT ON
FRANKLY HAVE BEEN PUT ON STEROIDS BY DONALD TRUMP.
STEROIDS BY DONALD TRUMP. THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP.
THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP. THIS HAS PUSHED SO MANY
THIS HAS PUSHED SO MANY SUBURBANITES WHO HAD VOTED
SUBURBANITES WHO HAD VOTED REPUBLICAN, CHUCK, FOR DECADES
REPUBLICAN, CHUCK, FOR DECADES INTO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
INTO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. THEY NOW SHOW UP, VOTE
THEY NOW SHOW UP, VOTE DEMOCRATIC REGULARLY, AND
DEMOCRATIC REGULARLY, AND REMEMBER THIS IS THE
REMEMBER THIS IS THE CULMINATION.
CULMINATION. THIS WAS THE LAST PIECE OF THE
THIS WAS THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE THAT DEMOCRATS DIDN’T
PUZZLE THAT DEMOCRATS DIDN’T CONTROL.
CONTROL. NOW, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING IN
NOW, THEY HAVE EVERYTHING IN VIRGINIA.
VIRGINIA. THERE’S NOTHING LEFT.
THERE’S NOTHING LEFT. THERE ARE NO MORE WORLDS TO
THERE ARE NO MORE WORLDS TO CONQUER.
CONQUER. SO IF I WERE THE REPUBLICANS, I
SO IF I WERE THE REPUBLICANS, I WOULDN’T SPEND TEN CENTS IN
WOULDN’T SPEND TEN CENTS IN VIRGINIA AT LEAST UNTIL DONALD
VIRGINIA AT LEAST UNTIL DONALD TRUMP IS GONE.
TRUMP IS GONE. >> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY IT --
>> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY IT -- IT -- TRUMP IN THIS CASE IN
IT -- TRUMP IN THIS CASE IN VIRGINIA, LARRY, FELT AS YOU
VIRGINIA, LARRY, FELT AS YOU JUST PUT IT RIGHT, HE JUST
JUST PUT IT RIGHT, HE JUST PUT -- HE ACCELERATED A TREND.
PUT -- HE ACCELERATED A TREND. SO I MEAN, AT THIS POINT THERE
SO I MEAN, AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE REPUBLICAN
IS NO ALTERNATIVE REPUBLICAN PARTY LEFT?
PARTY LEFT? >> THERE’S -- THERE’S NOTHING.
>> THERE’S -- THERE’S NOTHING. IT’S REALLY AMAZING.
IT’S REALLY AMAZING. THE REPUBLICANS USED TO WIN
THE REPUBLICANS USED TO WIN BECAUSE THEY NOMINATED
BECAUSE THEY NOMINATED CENTER-RIGHT PEOPLE WHO ARE
CENTER-RIGHT PEOPLE WHO ARE ACCEPTABLE TO THE SUBURBANITES
ACCEPTABLE TO THE SUBURBANITES AND ACTUALLY WERE WELL-LIKED BY
AND ACTUALLY WERE WELL-LIKED BY THE SUBURBANITES.
THE SUBURBANITES. NOW, IT’S THE HARD CORE, HARSH
NOW, IT’S THE HARD CORE, HARSH REPUBLICANS WHO TEND TO WIN
REPUBLICANS WHO TEND TO WIN STATEWIDE NOMINATIONS AND A LOT
STATEWIDE NOMINATIONS AND A LOT OF LOCAL NOMINATIONS.
OF LOCAL NOMINATIONS. AND IT JUST DOESN’T SELL AND
AND IT JUST DOESN’T SELL AND THEY DON’T EVEN SEEM TO CARE.
THEY DON’T EVEN SEEM TO CARE. >> LET’S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT
>> LET’S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT IN 2020 A BIT HERE.
IN 2020 A BIT HERE. DAVE, WHAT’S AMAZING TO ME IS
DAVE, WHAT’S AMAZING TO ME IS ACTUALLY NOT HOW ONLY THIS
ACTUALLY NOT HOW ONLY THIS RESULT WAS REINFORCING.
RESULT WAS REINFORCING. IT WAS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT
IT WAS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT WE SAW IN 2018.
WE SAW IN 2018. A DEMOCRAT WHO FIT THE DISTRICT
A DEMOCRAT WHO FIT THE DISTRICT OR STATE, ANDY BESHEAR, RUNS ON
OR STATE, ANDY BESHEAR, RUNS ON PROTECTING SOMETHING THAT IS
PROTECTING SOMETHING THAT IS GROWING MORE POPULAR BY THE DAY,
GROWING MORE POPULAR BY THE DAY, OBAMA CARE, AND SOMEHOW IS ABLE
OBAMA CARE, AND SOMEHOW IS ABLE TO WIN IN SOME RED AREAS.
TO WIN IN SOME RED AREAS. AND OH BY THE WAY, IS HE A
AND OH BY THE WAY, IS HE A MILLENNIAL TECHNICALLY?
MILLENNIAL TECHNICALLY? I THINK HE MAY HAVE EVEN CHECKED
I THINK HE MAY HAVE EVEN CHECKED THAT BOX.
THAT BOX. RIGHT?
RIGHT? THERE IS A PATTERN HERE.
THERE IS A PATTERN HERE. WHAT IS THE LESSON DEMOCRATS
WHAT IS THE LESSON DEMOCRATS SHOULD TAKE FROM THIS?
SHOULD TAKE FROM THIS? >> WELL, COUPLE THINGS FROM LAST
>> WELL, COUPLE THINGS FROM LAST NIGHT.
NIGHT. FIRST OF ALL, THIS SUBURBAN
FIRST OF ALL, THIS SUBURBAN PIPELINE AWAY FROM REPUBLICANS
PIPELINE AWAY FROM REPUBLICANS AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT
AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT LARRY WAS TALKING ABOUT, IT’S
LARRY WAS TALKING ABOUT, IT’S ABSOLUTELY AFFECTING
ABSOLUTELY AFFECTING PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS BECAUSE
PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS BECAUSE THERE IS A NEW NAME FOR THOSE
THERE IS A NEW NAME FOR THOSE SUBURBAN REPUBLICANS WHO DON’T
SUBURBAN REPUBLICANS WHO DON’T LIKE TRUMP AND IT’S CALLED
LIKE TRUMP AND IT’S CALLED DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. VIRGINIA DOESN’T HAVE PARTY
VIRGINIA DOESN’T HAVE PARTY REGISTRATION SO YOU CAN VOTE IN
REGISTRATION SO YOU CAN VOTE IN WHOEVER’S PRIMARY FOR PRESIDENT.
WHOEVER’S PRIMARY FOR PRESIDENT. THOSE VOTERS ARE NOT
THOSE VOTERS ARE NOT WARREN-CRATS.
WARREN-CRATS. THEY’RE NOT BERNIE-CRATS.
THEY’RE NOT BERNIE-CRATS. WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR SOMEONE
WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR SOMEONE LIKE JOE BIDEN.
LIKE JOE BIDEN. BUT ALSO, THE RESULT OUT OF
BUT ALSO, THE RESULT OUT OF MISSISSIPPI, WE SHOULD TALK
MISSISSIPPI, WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT THAT TOO BECAUSE THAT WAS
ABOUT THAT TOO BECAUSE THAT WAS NOT A SPARKLING -- A -- A RESULT
NOT A SPARKLING -- A -- A RESULT FOR DEMOCRATS.
FOR DEMOCRATS. AFRICAN-AMERICANS THERE DID NOT
AFRICAN-AMERICANS THERE DID NOT TURN OUT AT THE LEVELS THAT JIM
TURN OUT AT THE LEVELS THAT JIM HOOD AND DEMOCRATS WERE HOPING.
HOOD AND DEMOCRATS WERE HOPING. I THINK THAT IS A CAVEAT TO LAST
I THINK THAT IS A CAVEAT TO LAST NIGHT’S RESULTS.
NIGHT’S RESULTS. A WARNING SIDE FOR DEMOCRATS IN
A WARNING SIDE FOR DEMOCRATS IN LOUISIANA’S RUN OFF.
LOUISIANA’S RUN OFF. BUT ALSO, IN FIVE OF THE SIX
BUT ALSO, IN FIVE OF THE SIX STATES THAT ARE GOING TO DECIDE
STATES THAT ARE GOING TO DECIDE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2020.
2020. THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE.
THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE. NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA,
NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA,
MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN.
WISCONSIN. >> LARRY, PARTICULARLY ON
>> LARRY, PARTICULARLY ON HEALTHCARE, WHAT -- IT -- IT --
HEALTHCARE, WHAT -- IT -- IT -- LOOK, IT LOOKS TO ME AS IF THE
LOOK, IT LOOKS TO ME AS IF THE DEMOCRATS COULD PLAY THE
DEMOCRATS COULD PLAY THE OBAMA -- YOU KNOW, KEEP,
OBAMA -- YOU KNOW, KEEP, PROTECT, EXPAND OBAMA CARE HAND
PROTECT, EXPAND OBAMA CARE HAND AND THEY CAN PLAY IN ANY STATE,
AND THEY CAN PLAY IN ANY STATE, ANY DISTRICT, ANY COUNTY IN THE
ANY DISTRICT, ANY COUNTY IN THE COUNTRY.
COUNTRY. >> THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT.
>> THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT. LOOK, MEDICARE FOR ALL PLAYS IN
LOOK, MEDICARE FOR ALL PLAYS IN DEEPLY BLUE STATES AND DISTRICTS
DEEPLY BLUE STATES AND DISTRICTS AND THAT’S TERRIFIC.
AND THAT’S TERRIFIC. BUT YOU HAVE TO WIN SOME OF THE
BUT YOU HAVE TO WIN SOME OF THE STATES YOU JUST MENTIONED AND
STATES YOU JUST MENTIONED AND DAVE HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
DAVE HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT. IF YOU CAN’T WIN THOSE, YOU’RE
IF YOU CAN’T WIN THOSE, YOU’RE NOT REQUESTINGGOING TO WIN THE P
NOT REQUESTINGGOING TO WIN THE P AND OBAMA CARE IS, FOR THE FIRST
AND OBAMA CARE IS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, TRULY REALLY POPULAR.
TIME, TRULY REALLY POPULAR. IT HAD SOME PERIODS OF
IT HAD SOME PERIODS OF POPULARITY.
POPULARITY. BUT IT’S -- IT’S REALLY UP THERE
BUT IT’S -- IT’S REALLY UP THERE NOW.
NOW. WHY NOT CAPITALIZE ON THAT?
WHY NOT CAPITALIZE ON THAT? >> WHAT ARE WE GOING TO SEE IN
>> WHAT ARE WE GOING TO SEE IN LOUISIANA?
LOUISIANA? MORE OF THE SAME?
MORE OF THE SAME? DAVID, IT LOOKS LIKE KENTUCKY
DAVID, IT LOOKS LIKE KENTUCKY AND IT WILL BE A COIN FLIP AT
AND IT WILL BE A COIN FLIP AT THE END BECAUSE IT’S BASICALLY
THE END BECAUSE IT’S BASICALLY THE SAME CONTEST.
THE SAME CONTEST. MAYBE YOU DON’T LIKE THE
MAYBE YOU DON’T LIKE THE POLICIES ONE’S PRESENTING BUT
POLICIES ONE’S PRESENTING BUT YOU DON’T LIKE THE CULTURAL
YOU DON’T LIKE THE CULTURAL CONNECTIONS WITH THE OTHER.
CONNECTIONS WITH THE OTHER. >> WELL, LOOK, JOHN BELL EDWARDS
>> WELL, LOOK, JOHN BELL EDWARDS HAS TO HANG ON TO MORE THAN A
HAS TO HANG ON TO MORE THAN A THIRD OF WHITE VOTERS IN
THIRD OF WHITE VOTERS IN LOUISIANA AND HE’S HOLDING ON
LOUISIANA AND HE’S HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE RIGHT NOW.
FOR DEAR LIFE RIGHT NOW. WHAT WE SAW IN INITIAL ROUND OF
WHAT WE SAW IN INITIAL ROUND OF VOTING WAS THE WHITE SHARE OF
VOTING WAS THE WHITE SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE WAS HIGHER THAN
THE ELECTORATE WAS HIGHER THAN IN 2015.
IN 2015. PART BECAUSE TRUMP VISITED THE
PART BECAUSE TRUMP VISITED THE STATE.
STATE. HE’S GOING TO HAVE TO PUMP UP
HE’S GOING TO HAVE TO PUMP UP THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN TURNOUT.
THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN TURNOUT. THAT’S HARD FOR A CONSERVATIVE
THAT’S HARD FOR A CONSERVATIVE WHITE DEMOCRAT TO DO.
WHITE DEMOCRAT TO DO. BUT WE’LL SEE.
BUT WE’LL SEE. I THINK HE’S DONE PROBABLY JUST
I THINK HE’S DONE PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO LOCALIZE THE RACE, TO
ENOUGH TO LOCALIZE THE RACE, TO PERSONALIZE IT THAT HE CAN STILL
PERSONALIZE IT THAT HE CAN STILL WIN.
WIN. >> HEY, LARRY, IT IS AMAZING TO
>> HEY, LARRY, IT IS AMAZING TO ME DEMOCRATS DID SO WELL IN
ME DEMOCRATS DID SO WELL IN VIRGINIA WHEN THEIR TWO
VIRGINIA WHEN THEIR TWO TOP-ELECTED STATEWIDE OFFICIALS,
TOP-ELECTED STATEWIDE OFFICIALS, LET’S JUST SAY, WERE HAM STRUNG
LET’S JUST SAY, WERE HAM STRUNG BY SCANDAL.
BY SCANDAL. TO BE -- TO BE -- IN FACT, UP
TO BE -- TO BE -- IN FACT, UP HERE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA,
HERE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, LARRY, YOU COULDN’T TURN ON A
LARRY, YOU COULDN’T TURN ON A TELEVISION WITHOUT SEEING THE
TELEVISION WITHOUT SEEING THE JUSTIN FAIRFAX CONTROVERSY BEING
JUSTIN FAIRFAX CONTROVERSY BEING USED AND IT DIDN’T WORK.
USED AND IT DIDN’T WORK. WHAT MESSAGE DOES THAT SEND?
WHAT MESSAGE DOES THAT SEND? >> WELL, IT SENT A VERY
>> WELL, IT SENT A VERY PARTICULAR MESSAGE.
PARTICULAR MESSAGE. AND I DONE’T MEAN TO ALWAYS COME
AND I DONE’T MEAN TO ALWAYS COME BACK TO TRUMP BUT IT’S ANOTHER
BACK TO TRUMP BUT IT’S ANOTHER PART OF THE TRUMP EFFECT.
PART OF THE TRUMP EFFECT. HE CHURNS OUT CONTROVERSIES AND
HE CHURNS OUT CONTROVERSIES AND SCANDALS AT A RATE FASTER THAN
SCANDALS AT A RATE FASTER THAN ANY POLITICIAN IN AMERICAN
ANY POLITICIAN IN AMERICAN HISTORY.
HISTORY. SO WE MOVE ON SO QUICKLY FROM
SO WE MOVE ON SO QUICKLY FROM EVENT TO EVENT AND CONTROVERSY
EVENT TO EVENT AND CONTROVERSY TO CONTROVERSY.
TO CONTROVERSY. THAT WAS FEBRUARY.
THAT WAS FEBRUARY. THAT WAS LIKE FOUR YEARS AGO,
THAT WAS LIKE FOUR YEARS AGO, CHUCK.
CHUCK. >> I WAS THINKING ABOUT YOUR
>> I WAS THINKING ABOUT YOUR FIRST GREAT BOOK THAT MANY OF US
FIRST GREAT BOOK THAT MANY OF US READ AS STUDENTS.
READ AS STUDENTS. "FEEDING FRENZY."
"FEEDING FRENZY." THINKING WHAT THE HELL WOULD
THINKING WHAT THE HELL WOULD THAT BOOK LOOK LIKE TODAY?
THAT BOOK LOOK LIKE TODAY? >> IT’D BE TWICE AS LONG.
>> IT’D BE TWICE AS LONG. MAYBE TEN TIMES.
MAYBE TEN TIMES. >> IT WOULD BE NEVER-ENDING I
