on the international stage there hasn't
been many things much more embarrassing
than the UK's process of leaving the EU
the British voted in a tight referendum
to leave the Union the initial results
were a shock to Europe and the world and
to this day the consequences of this
decision still continue the process is
separate from the EU is not easy it has
never been done in its history so when
the UK activated article 50 of the
Treaty of the European Union to withdraw
from the Union they triggered a two-year
countdown the two years passed and
Teresa Mae's government managed to weld
an agreement with Brussels though a very
controversial one the agreement itself
consists of more than 500 pages to
forget about a summary but in general
the agreement left the UK in a legal
limbo it would be outside of the Union
in many aspects but still kind of tied
to it in others especially regarding the
immigration issue in Northern Ireland
the British always had a love-hate
relationship with the European Union the
United Kingdom had always refrained from
being too integrated within the Union
here is a map of the population that
says they feel European between 1995 and
2015 the British never adopted the euro
and it was never part of the Schengen
treaty and the most conservative British
politicians intended to end the free
movement of immigrants especially of the
Romanians and other Eastern Europeans
within the UK but in the EU this free
movement is implicit the dream of the
most radical conservatives of the
Parliament is to end this free movement
and this was indeed one of the points in
Mays agreements in their separation from
the Union the problem is with the UK
borders Ireland though this creates a
new border between Ireland which belongs
to the EU and Northern Ireland belonging
to the UK but to raise a physical border
between the two Ireland's would put the
peace in this region into jeopardy if
you don't understand much of what's
happening don't worry neither the
British themselves or their politicians
know what's happening either today we
will try to explain brexit which is
certain to happen at any moment and what
this could mean for the future it must
be stated since brexit is something
affected by the vote many changes can
occur so without further introduction
let's begin
March 29 the day of Independence of the
UK from the EU was marked on a calendar
for years as the day that London would
cut their ties with Brussels but it
didn't happen
the British government ie may managed to
seal an accord with Brussels an
agreement of more than 500 pages but
like any divorce nothing is easy and
it's even worse if there are children
involved in this case we can consider
Ireland as the son of the marriage
between the European Union and the
United Kingdom one of the most critical
points of maize agreements is the Irish
border for many years Northern Ireland
and Ireland were in a civil conflict
that claimed hundreds of lives and
spawned a wave of violence decades ago
with the peace negotiated and
subsequently the membership of the UK
and Northern Ireland into the EU allowed
the free movement of the Irish and the
north through the whole island without
limitations the Irish border is the most
critical point of the negotiations it is
precisely the issue of the Irish border
within the agreement that has blocked
the British Parliament from approving
Mays agreement so how can the UK leave
the customs union and free movement
within Europe without reestablishing a
physical border and customs control
between Ireland and Northern Ireland the
matter has confused the heads of London
and Brussels since this would be the
main border of the EU and the UK but at
the same time separating the two islands
would have a massive issue for the
entire island the United Kingdom had
initially proposed a technological
solution such as an advanced customs and
transport control system but the
proposal was rejected by EU officials
and Ireland for being too unachievable
initially the EU proposed that North
Ireland should remain in the single
market and customs union which triggered
a furious response from London because
if this happens Northern Ireland would
still technically be in the EU within
their policy however the rest of Britain
would still be outside of the policies
and this would put a border control
between Great Britain and Northern
Ireland isolating it from the rest of
the UK the EU then moved its position
that would be activated if future trade
negotiations fail to avoid a hard border
on the island of Ireland supporters have
brexit detest this for fear that it
leaves the United Kingdom chained to EU
standards some EU countries criticize
the plan that allows one part of the UK
to remain in the single market and for
the rest leave as you can see it's a
complicated legal limbo which neither
the British Parliament nor Brussels have
any idea of how it will develop
but it was one of the most disputed
points in the agreement when the 27
countries of the EU Parliament approved
the agreement only lacking the approval
of the British Parliament to proceed an
orderly exit guess what the British
Parliament did not reject it once not
twice but three times in a row what
occurs may seem complicated but in
summary the most radical and eurosceptic
faction of the Conservative Party will
not accept that the UK can remain in the
customs union or worse leave Northern
Ireland and the unique market and the
future incident might cause the
unification of the two islands in the
case of a political conflict between
Dublin and London so for the first time
that the agreement was voted on more
than 400 legislators rejected it
who worse the feet of any major
government and power and the last few
decades afterwards there was an attempt
to politically overthrow Maine as party
leader and she even suffered defections
within her own party the UK government
seems to be continuously imploding the
Labour Party the opposition of the
Conservative Party which favors the
permanence of the UK in the EU which is
a center-left party led by Jeremy Corbyn
has become a stone in the shoe of the
Parliament opposing to support the
agreement only to see London suffer in
anarchy and chaos and that is because
the agreement is as close to the EU as
the Labour Party could accept and so
breaks it without an agreement is not
something that neither the Labour Party
nor the majority of the Conservatives
one in many legal aspects that are
impossible to treat within this one
video the May agreement leaves the UK
with one foot still in the door of the
Union this is seen as something negative
from the point of view of both parties
but especially for the Conservatives
where a good part of them would prefer
that the UK will leave without an
agreement with the EU in other words the
British executive branch has reached an
agreement with Europe but the British
legislature does not want to accept the
agreement therefore the British
executive and legislative branch
struggled to achieve a quick solution
thus the European Union is simply
watching London bicker as the executive
and legislative power comes to a
conclusion many believe that the Labour
Party led by Corbin rather than trying
to find a good agreement is only trying
to cause a constitutional crisis in
London and forcefully impose the
resignation of the British prime
minister leading to a call to election
elections where the Labour Party may
rise to power or the Conservatives could
remain in power with someone even more
radical leading it so seeing this
disaster they opted to extend a deadline
of the agreement from the 29th of March
to the 12th of April but
April 10 the European Union determined
that the deadline would be extended
until October 31st of 2019 Halloween
night
this prolongation caused the UK to
participate in the European elections in
May and therefore the British will be
called to the polls if the British
Parliament fails to approve Maine's
agreement and if no other agreement is
found France has already stated that the
UK will then have to leave without any
agreement by November so what if the
United Kingdom exits without an
agreement at first glance this seems
like a very likely scenario but remember
that the British Parliament voted
against this option although this isn't
legally binding in fact nothing is
binding not even the 2016 referendum the
UK could stop breaks it tomorrow and no
law would have been broken only the will
of the ones who voted to leave threesome
a had stated because UK will not go
without an agreement stating that if the
existing agreement is not approved then
it will be renegotiated it's either
leave with an agreement or break say is
cancelled in the event that all
negotiations fail and patience of
Brussels Paris and Berlin runs out there
would be no other option than to leave
without any agreements so what are the
consequences no one really knows for
sure but many economists and political
scientists have made multiple models
according to the Bank of England the UK
would enter a recession with a decrease
of up to 3% of the British GDP right
after the exit the con Starling would
depreciate enough that it could even be
equal to the euro which would cause an
intense increase in inflation in Britain
and would increase poverty levels the
British crisis would be equal to or
worse than the American subprime crisis
of 2008 a heartbreak that would greatly
impact Belgium Netherlands France
Germany and Luxembourg and to a lesser
extent Spain Italy and Poland depending
on the immediate impact of a heartbreak
sit in the eurozone the Euro would
depreciate against the dollar
aggravating the Italian recession all
import from the UK would be subject to
heavy taxes at customs this is
especially worrisome than more than 70
percent of what the British eat comes
from the rest of the EU worst case
scenario the country can last for weeks
without basic products which has led
people to collect canned foods and other
basic necessities there's even a rumor
going around of a secret plan to
evacuate the Queen in case of escalated
protests in London a British recession
could drag the rest of the European
countries into an
the recession as well although this
hasn't been a topic that is widely
studied in short the UK's currency the
pound sterling would depreciate and
therefore everything would become more
expensive for the British even if their
exports become cheaper without any
agreement all their products that go
into Europe will be charged with tariffs
unlike the date where there are no
tariffs in place multiple Airlines would
have to stop operating in Europe if a
part of the capital stock is not
controlled in a majority by European
Union capital thousands of flights could
be cancelled leaving millions of
passengers stranded including thousands
of new students in the UK or vice versa
the question of what would happen to EU
citizens currently residing in the UK is
also a subject of controversy London has
said that even in the case of a hard
breakfast they will respect the rights
of the EU citizens still residing within
the country but to what extent will this
be true we still don't know for the rest
of European countries it will depend on
each government but deportations cannot
be ruled out although this would be very
unlikely and if it does happen
the tension between London and Brussels
will only further escalate
another issue is Gibraltar as this would
become another border between the EU and
Great Britain so with so many negative
effects does anyone really win with the
hard brexit well yes several countries
in fact but mostly non European
countries one of the great beneficiaries
will be the u.s. sense the product of a
traumatic rupture between England and
Europe believe it no choice but to try
and replace European imports with
American imports the same case would
happen with China which could supply the
UK with technology replacing German and
French imports the United Kingdom could
negotiate different trade agreements
with different economic powers which in
the first instance would benefit
countries such as the US China and Japan
while the British economy struggles with
its recession the way in which brexit is
conducted will also impact how the union
will be seen if brussels acts very
docile and other members will think that
there is not much consequence and
leaving the union but if they act tough
then other countries would think less
about trying to leave the union
obviously a heart or soft breaks it has
its own advantages and disadvantages it
is not a simple issue especially with
the still very polarized opinion of the
British people who are still divided in
the case of a heart breaks it this could
even imply the separation of Scotland
from the UK ending the current state of
the kingdom but that is already a
subject for a follow-up video in any
case this will not be the last video
about brexit as there will be more news
to come in the coming months or even
years so what do you think about
bracelet do you think that the European
Union is acting too docile or too tough
on London how do you think the circus
will end I hope you liked this video
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