This was a recent
birthday celebration
in North Korea's
capital, Pyongyang.
It was held in honor of
the country's founder,
Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994.
The festivities may
have appeared routine.
But something,
someone, was missing.
Kim Jong-un, North
Korea's ruler.
Here he is at that same
celebration in past years.
Kim's absence has led to
questions about his health
and whereabouts.
But details from the secretive
regime are hard to come by.
"They have such control
over information.
They are so good at
restricting access."
So how do North
Korea watchers try
to discern what's happening
during moments like this?
We spoke to several
experts to understand
some of the main techniques
that they rely on.
Satellite images
are a key tool.
Analysts use them to look
for changes or patterns that
can help explain what might
be happening in the country
and to track Kim
Jong-un's movements.
Take the Central Party
Complex, for example,
the regime's headquarters.
"The Central Party
Complex is located
right next to where they
have the military parades.
In Pyongyang, it is called
North Korea's Forbidden City,
because you cannot go there
without showing your ID.
You've got to go through
four lines of security
before you go in to
the actual building.
But it is where all of
North Korea's top officials
have residences."
But from above, there are
ways around the secrecy.
"You could tell
if Kim Jong-un is
in the office based on
the guard deployments
around the buildings.
It's like when the president's
in the White House.
You can see it.
There's a state
security presence
by the Secret Service."
The complex also
includes Kim's
reported personal
medical clinic.
But in April, we
detected a change.
The clinic had just been
demolished, making way
for a much larger structure.
It's the kind of visual
clue that analysts
tend to keep a close eye on.
If Kim Jong-un does
have health issues,
there are other places experts
look to for indicators,
like North Korea's most
elite hospital where the Kim
family has its own wing.
Analysts might look for
certain vehicles outside.
Here's what a motorcade looks
like near one of Kim's homes.
If this appears
near the hospital,
it may mean he's there.
"We would look at vehicles parked
outside of the hospital —
outside of the entrance.
They would, of course,
be parked very orderly.
It would be very clean and neat.
And anywhere from six to 10 Mercedes Benz
sedans.
And then after that,
we would probably
start to see what are
called ACVs, armored combat
vehicles, and any other
deployment of Kim Jong-un's
body guard units."
Another area that
observers look at
is this train
station in Wonsan,
near one of Kim's
favorite homes.
Recently, what is likely
his personal train
was spotted parked nearby.
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If Kim's health was
of serious concern,
or if the regime felt
its very survival was
in immediate
danger, analysts may
look to a compound
and surrounding
area in the country's north.
"This is where the Kim's and
the North Korean officials
would travel and issue
commands and instructions.
It is geographically isolated.
It is a special district where
Kim Jong-un has his panic
room and has a command
and control facility where
he would be able to command
North Korea's armed forces
in the event of an
invasion or in the event
of an insurrection
against his leadership.
And it also has the
value-added benefit of being
so close to the North Korea-
China border that he
could drive into China
if they felt that the
emergency was that bad."
If Kim were recovering
from an ailment,
he might do it at this
residential compound.
It's where Kim's
father, Kim Jong-il,
made his first public
appearance at a soccer game
after having a stroke in 2008.
"It is located about
20 to 30 minutes
from central Pyongyang.
So that would allow him
to recover in privacy,
and quietly.
But if he needed
to go to Pyongyang
to exercise his
authority or show
his face at a political
meeting, it's a short drive."
But satellite imagery
doesn't always
provide a clear answer.
"We also need to be
mindful of the fact
that North Korea is very aware
that we are watching them
from above.
And so I have seen in the
past that North Korea uses
that satellite imagery to
conceal what they're doing
and to deflect what
they're doing."
"Sometimes when
he's gone abroad,
they will put the
guard deployments
up there to make it
look like he's in there.
He's not in there."
Another area North
Korea watchers look to
for clues about the regime
is state-run news outlets.
Although the media treats
North Korean leaders
as godlike figures,
experts say
there are ways to tell
if Kim is in trouble.
"If there's a major
crisis today, tomorrow,
within a few days,
what we will see
are very long
editorials or very long
essays published in North
Korea's newspapers, which
will talk about the virtues
of Kim family leadership.
They won't refer directly
to Kim Jong-un necessarily.
But they will
talk about virtues
and trace those virtues back
to all three of the Kims."
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The presence or absence of
the ruler during major media
spectacles may also
be a worrying sign,
like in 2008 when Kim
Jong-un's father and then
leader was due at a
major military parade
to celebrate the
country's founding.
"We're expecting then
leader Kim Jong-il
to come out and wave,
salute the troops.
So it was my
first day of work.
I was watching this.
And lo and behold, as the
camera scanned to the viewing
platform, he wasn't there.
And I cannot tell you,
that just sent shivers down
my spine.
We finally got intel
sources in Washington, D.C.,
to confirm that they believed
that Kim Jong-il had suffered
a stroke several weeks earlier
in August and was in a coma."
State television didn't
cover Kim Jong-il's ailments.
"All they showed on state TV
was old documentary footage
but no new images that have
been moving for months.
North Korea never
acknowledged his illness —
never."
Finally, there is the tracking
of commercial and private
flights.
This website
shows flights over
a typical 48-hour period.
Notice how empty it
is over North Korea.
Only about half a dozen
commercial airliners
land in Pyongyang's
airport each day.
So any unscheduled
flight should stand out.
If Kim Jong-un
was severely ill,
analysts may watch for
a specific type of flight
arriving in Pyongyang.
"I would look for
charter flights
because if it was a
major medical procedure,
there's a very high
chance that they
would have retained
foreign physicians
to do the procedure."
North Korea watchers
have used flight tracking
in the past for clues about
the ruler's intentions.
In 2018, unscheduled
cargo plane flights
were quickly spotted
leaving Pyongyang bound
for Vladivostok, Russia.
Both were believed to have
been involved in sanctions
violations by the regime.
None of these techniques
alone can provide
a full picture of Kim's life.
Analysts also heavily rely
on human and intelligence
sources.
And despite modern
technology and expertise,
the regime still
manages to keep
most of its internal affairs
away from prying eyes.
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