>> NOT SINCE 2008, 2009, 
RICHARD, NO, WE HAVEN'T.
ARE WE GOING TO SEE A RECESSION?
AND I'LL ALLOW YOU TO DEFINE IT 
THIS WAY, THE UNITED STATES, THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY.
>> SO LET ME JUST SAY WE'RE 
GOING TO HAVE RECESSIONS IN MANY
COUNTRIES.
THAT INCLUDES GERMANY, ITALY, 
SINGAPORE, JAPAN AND THAT LIST 
IS GOING TO GET LONGER, KOREA.
THE UNITED STATES, IT'S STILL A 
50/50 SITUATION.
IF THE MARKET DISRUPTIONS 
CONTINUE AND IF THE CORONAVIRUS 
FEAR AMPLIFY, THEN, 
UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL.
>> BUT, TO THIS QUESTION, THE 
GLOBAL RECESSION, I REMEMBER 
DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND 
AFTER -- AND IN THE TIME AFTER, 
THERE WAS A LOT OF TALK, THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES THERE 
HAD BEEN A COORDINATED GLOBAL 
FINANCIAL -- GLOBAL RECESSION.
BECAUSE THERE WILL STILL BE 
GROWTH, WILL THAT OFFSET THOSE 
THAT ARE IN RECESSION?
>> NO.
AND YOU'VE GOT TO UNDERSTAND TWO
THINGS, ONE ABOUT THE ECONOMY 
AND THE OTHER ONE ABOUT THE 
MARKETS.
THE ECONOMY, WE'RE HAVING DEMAND
AND SUPPLY DESTRUCTION AT THE 
SAME TIME.
WHY?
BECAUSE THE CORONAVIRUS CREATES 
A SUDDEN STOP.
YOU AND I NO LONGER WANT TO 
TRAVEL, WE NO LONGER WANT TO GO 
ON A CRUISE.
YOU SIMULTANEOUSLY DESTROY 
DEMAND AND SUPPLY.
THAT HAPPENS IN FRAGILE STATES, 
NOT IN MODERN ECONOMIES.
INITIAL CONDITIONS MATTER.
REAL THE SIMPLE IMAGE I'VE 
SHARED WITH YOU OVER THE LAST 
FEW MONTHS, VALUATION IS UP 
HERE, FUNDAMENTALS DOWN HERE, 
AND THE DIFFERENCE, THIS 
DIFFERENCE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE 
CENTRAL BANK.
FUNDAMENTALS ARE MOVING DOWN, 
THE CONFIDENCE IN CENTRAL BANK 
IS DISAPPEARING, AND IN 
ADDITION, LIKE YOU MENTIONED, 
THE O
