Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Hey,
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
everybody,
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
and welcome
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
to Business
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Casual, the
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
podcast from
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Morning
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Brew,
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
answering
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
your biggest
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
questions in
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
business.
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
I'm your
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
host and
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Brew
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
business
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
editor,
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Kinsey
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
Grant. And
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
now, let's
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
get into it.
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
[sound of a
Kinsey Grant, Morning Brew business editor and podcast host:
ding]
Kinsey: The last several months have
Kinsey: forced us to face some
Kinsey: uncomfortable truths.
Kinsey: COVID-19 taught us that we
Kinsey: are not invincible. A broad
Kinsey: economic downturn taught us
Kinsey: that all good things come to
Kinsey: an end, and also that we are
Kinsey: not invincible.
Kinsey: But for being the world's
Kinsey: largest economy, there are
Kinsey: still a lot of things that
Kinsey: we here in the U.S.
Kinsey: don't know.
Kinsey: Some of those many unknowns:
Kinsey: We don't know when the labor
Kinsey: market will fully heal.
Kinsey: We don't know the extent to
Kinsey: which minority groups are
Kinsey: losing jobs faster than
Kinsey: their other racial
Kinsey: counterparts.
Kinsey: We don't know what comes
Kinsey: next for people relying on
Kinsey: government relief packages
Kinsey: once those packages run out.
Kinsey: And many of us don't know
Kinsey: how to put a nearly 15%
Kinsey: unemployment rate in context
Kinsey: after a decade of job
Kinsey: growth.
Kinsey: There's a common theme there
Kinsey: that we're going to tackle
Kinsey: today.
Kinsey: The labor market.
Kinsey: Since mid-March, more than
Kinsey: 40 million people have filed
Kinsey: jobless claims in the U.S.
Kinsey: And yet, we still have a lot
Kinsey: of questions about the labor
Kinsey: market.
Kinsey: And I don't know about you,
Kinsey: but I prefer knowing to not
Kinsey: knowing. So that's why
Kinsey: today, we are going to dig
Kinsey: deep into the U.S.
Kinsey: workforce: What it means for
Kinsey: the broader economy, how
Kinsey: it's changed during this
Kinsey: pandemic and this economic
Kinsey: crisis, and we are doing it
Kinsey: with the wonderful and
Kinsey: highly qualified [laughs]
Kinsey: Karin Kimbrough, the chief
Kinsey: economist at LinkedIn.
Kinsey: Karin, thank you so much for
Kinsey: coming on Business Casual.
Karin Kimbrough, chief economist at LinkedIn:
Thanks for having me.
Kinsey: I'm excited to talk to you
Kinsey: today. I want to run through
Kinsey: a couple of the accolades
Kinsey: and your previous CV
Kinsey: in the spirit of LinkedIn
Kinsey: [laughs] here. You were also
Kinsey: the assistant treasurer at
Kinsey: Google, managing director
Kinsey: and head of macro-economic
Kinsey: policy at Bank of America.
Kinsey: You've also served as vice
Kinsey: president in the markets
Kinsey: group of the Federal Reserve
Kinsey: Bank of New York during the
Kinsey: financial crisis.
Kinsey: And just [laughs] for good
measure,
Kinsey: I'll throw this in: You hold
Kinsey: a doctorate in economics
Kinsey: from Oxford, a master in
Kinsey: public policy from the
Kinsey: Harvard Kennedy School, and
Kinsey: an undergraduate degree in
Kinsey: economics from Stanford.
Kinsey: Is that all of your degrees?
Kinsey: Am I missing any?
Karin: You've got it all.
Karin: [laughs]
Kinsey: OK. So you are definitely
Kinsey: well-studied to talk about
Kinsey: the labor market.
Kinsey: And I just want to also
Kinsey: point out, a few years back,
Kinsey: you were recognized by Black
Kinsey: Enterprise as one of the
Kinsey: most powerful black women in
Kinsey: business.
Kinsey: And to me, it is very
Kinsey: obvious why. You know your
Kinsey: stuff. I'm excited to talk
Kinsey: to you today about the labor
Kinsey: market.
Kinsey: And our goal is to understand
Kinsey: today's employment situation,
Kinsey: what these numbers are, what
Kinsey: they mean in context, what
Kinsey: they tell us, where we go
Kinsey: from here.
Kinsey: And it's perfect timing
Kinsey: because we're recording this
Kinsey: actually just [laughs] a
couple
Kinsey: days before the Labor
Kinsey: Department releases the May
Kinsey: jobs report.
Kinsey: And just in time to talk
Kinsey: about a new report from
Kinsey: LinkedIn about the
Kinsey: workforce. So timeliness we
Kinsey: have definitely nailed.
Kinsey: And I'm excited to get
started.
Kinsey: Should we get going?
Karin: Let's go.
Kinsey: All right.
Kinsey: So I think just to kind of
Kinsey: begin here, it would be
Kinsey: useful to explain
Kinsey: what you and your team at
Kinsey: LinkedIn are doing when it
Kinsey: comes to understanding,
Kinsey: collecting, aggregating
Kinsey: economic statistics and how
Kinsey: the statistics that you and
Kinsey: your team are working on
Kinsey: vary from the kind of
Kinsey: numbers that we get out of,
Kinsey: say, the jobs report every
Kinsey: month from the Labor
Kinsey: Department.
Karin: Sure.
Karin: Well, first of all, thanks for
having
Karin: me again. It's a pleasure to
Karin: be here and share insights
Karin: about the labor market.
Karin: It's something that I and my
Karin: team look at nonstop.
Karin: And just to say a bit more
Karin: about us, we're a group
Karin: of folks inside of LinkedIn
Karin: looking at all of the data
Karin: that we have, and we call it
Karin: the economic graph.
Karin: Basically, it's a
Karin: constellation of
Karin: data that updates second
Karin: by second, millisecond, in
Karin: fact, by millisecond,
Karin: around our members,
Karin: the employers who are posting
Karin: jobs at LinkedIn,
Karin: various sizes of
Karin: companies that are involved,
Karin: the skills that the members
Karin: have, and even things
Karin: so much as the policymakers
Karin: in the regions where our
Karin: members and our
Karin: customer companies reside.
Karin: Those policymakers
Karin: are also interested in the
Karin: data.
Karin: Obviously with the privacy
Karin: lens over it. But just
Karin: generally to understand where
Karin: the jobs are, what skills are
Karin: most in demand.
Karin: So we spend a lot of time
Karin: really trying to understand
Karin: the labor market, the supply
Karin: side, the demand side,
Karin: and everything in between.
Kinsey: OK.
Kinsey: So why do you think that all
Kinsey: of these are so important?
Kinsey: This entire concept of
Kinsey: understanding the labor
Kinsey: market, the supply side, the
Kinsey: demand side—why is
Kinsey: this important in the broader
Kinsey: scope of the U.S.
Kinsey: economy? Can you provide a
Kinsey: little color and context on
Kinsey: that?
Karin: Absolutely.
Karin: So let's go back to us just
Karin: being human beings.
Karin: You know, we are entities
Karin: related to our community.
Karin: We have our own sense of
Karin: identity.
Karin: And that identity
Karin: is influenced by
Karin: only a couple of things.
Karin: One is where we live and who
Karin: we live with, so our
Karin: neighbors and our family
Karin: members.
Karin: The other is what we do.
Karin: How do we spend our time
Karin: productively?
Karin: Whether it's paid or not
Karin: paid, we are spending our
Karin: time in some pursuit
Karin: that reflects our passion or
Karin: what we think is productive.
Karin: And it could be raising our
Karin: children.
Karin: It could be working in an
Karin: office. It could be working,
Karin: you know, at a national park,
Karin: which is one day where I plan
Karin: to work in my next place
Karin: [laughter]—be a park ranger
Karin: or something like that.
Karin: So working,
Karin: the labor market—all of
Karin: this helps define our
Karin: identity. It ties us to our
Karin: society.
Karin: It gives us a sense of
Karin: purpose.
Karin: So it's incredibly important
Karin: that that labor
Karin: market is better understood
Karin: to kind of help people feel
Karin: more fulfilled and find
Karin: opportunities.
Karin: And ultimately, at LinkedIn,
Karin: we're all about connecting
Karin: people to opportunities.
Karin: That's where we start
Karin: from. And that's our true,
Karin: you know, vision is to
Karin: connect every member of the
Karin: global workforce with
Karin: an opportunity like that.
Kinsey: Right. And I have to say,
Kinsey: Morning Brew first reached
Kinsey: out to me about a job on
Kinsey: LinkedIn. So [laughs] —.
Karin: Wonderful!
Kinsey: So I have benefited from
Kinsey: that connection
Kinsey: significantly [laughs].
Kinsey: My life would be very
Kinsey: different without LinkedIn
Kinsey: right now.
Kinsey: But you make a really
Kinsey: interesting point here—that
Kinsey: a lot of our personal
Kinsey: identity for so many people
Kinsey: is tied to how we spend,
Kinsey: I don't know, 80% of our
Kinsey: time, in some cases, our
Kinsey: waking hours, working.
Kinsey: So understanding why it
Kinsey: feels so visceral when we
Kinsey: get stats that are, you
Kinsey: know, 20% unemployment rate
Kinsey: or the worst job market
Kinsey: since the Great Depression,
Kinsey: that hits us in the gut.
Kinsey: It hits us hard and we feel
Kinsey: it.
Kinsey: And I think that it's worth
Kinsey: taking a moment to
Kinsey: understand why it does feel
Kinsey: that visceral.
Kinsey: This is our livelihood.
Kinsey: And for so many people, it's
Kinsey: not just a matter of going
Kinsey: on LinkedIn and finding a
Kinsey: new position. It's a lot
Kinsey: more difficult than that.
Kinsey: And I want to recognize
Kinsey: that.
Karin: You know, you make a really
Karin: good point, Kinsey.
Karin: We're at a very interesting
Karin: juncture right now,
Karin: where we're sitting, you and
Karin: me, this morning talking
Karin: in the U.S.
Karin: If you think about it,
Karin: many, many things have
Karin: occurred in the last couple
Karin: of months to create
Karin: uncertainty for people.
Karin: So imagine that,
Karin: you know, any human being
Karin: needs a couple of essential
Karin: things to feel good
Karin: about themselves, to feel
Karin: like they're able to survive.
Karin: And those are meeting their
Karin: basic needs with some kind
Karin: of income, meeting
Karin: their health, and
Karin: feeling safe.
Karin: So income, health,
Karin: safety—these are three
Karin: basic essentials that every
Karin: person wants and needs.
Karin: And right now, in the
Karin: environment of a pandemic
Karin: that doesn't yet have a
vaccine,
Karin: in the environment of the
Karin: massive amount of job losses
Karin: we've seen, and in
Karin: this, the current
Karin: environment, where people are
Karin: watching news headlines and
Karin: feeling anxious and scared
Karin: and depressed and all those
Karin: things, those three
Karin: basic essentials—income,
Karin: health and safety—are all
Karin: jeopardized.
Kinsey: Mm hmm.
Kinsey: Yeah. And it's a scary,
Kinsey: scary time.
Kinsey: And I want to talk more and
Kinsey: we'll get into some of the
Kinsey: more details in the numbers
Kinsey: about the exact employment
Kinsey: situation in the United
Kinsey: States right now. But first,
Kinsey: I want to hear a little bit
Kinsey: more about this workforce
Kinsey: report that you and your
Kinsey: team have been working on.
Kinsey: Do you have any insights you
Kinsey: can share from that report?
Karin: Absolutely.
Karin: So the workforce report is
Karin: one of the reports that we
Karin: put out on a regular basis
Karin: to try to explain
Karin: what we're seeing in
Karin: the world of work.
Karin: So it could be things like
Karin: what regions seem to
Karin: be evolving faster,
Karin: hiring more.
Karin: Where do we see migration
Karin: from one part of the country
Karin: to another?
Karin: People might be moving
Karin: because they're finishing
Karin: school. They might be moving
Karin: because there's a better job
Karin: opportunity.
Karin: And in the big picture,
Karin: you can start to see these
Karin: sort of pathways of people
Karin: moving around the country
Karin: over time for certain types
Karin: of jobs.
Karin: So what skills are sought
Karin: by employers in what
Karin: location?
Karin: So what skill that might be
Karin: looked for, and Detroit
Karin: might not be the same skill
Karin: in Dallas.
Karin: And so those are kinds of
Karin: things that we can look at.
Karin: The other thing that is
Karin: really, really interesting
Karin: for us, and it's really
Karin: been, I guess, the gold
Karin: mine right now in terms of
Karin: getting real-time data,
Karin: is looking at the hiring
Karin: rate. What companies are
Karin: hiring, what industries are
Karin: hiring, and at what rate
Karin: relative to last year?
Karin: Is it faster or slower?
Karin: And guess what?
Karin: It's slower.
Kinsey: Going to get slower
[laughter], yeah.
Kinsey: So what do you think is the
Kinsey: most compelling number out
Kinsey: of all of these? Or, I
Kinsey: guess, maybe a better
Kinsey: question is, what is the
Kinsey: most compelling takeaway for
Kinsey: you from all of this?
Kinsey: I believe it sounds like
Kinsey: more than just picking a
Kinsey: number and running with it.
Kinsey: It's understanding the sort
Kinsey: of broad strokes, trends at
Kinsey: play in the workforce, in
Kinsey: the economy at large.
Kinsey: What has piqued your
Kinsey: interest the most?
Karin: I think the thing that we're
Karin: most trying to figure out is
Karin: the freefall in job losses
Karin: that we've seen over the
Karin: last few months.
Karin: Is that stabilizing?
Karin: Is that actually
Karin: flattening out?
Karin: And are we seeing any
Karin: improvement?
Karin: And the data that we have
Karin: just received suggests
Karin: that things are still in the
Karin: stabilization mode.
Karin: I wouldn't say we're seeing
Karin: improvement.
Karin: And this is, by the way,
Karin: through May.
Karin: I wouldn't say we're seeing
improvement
Karin: in the hiring rate.
Karin: We're not seeing companies
Karin: come back and start hiring
Karin: at the same rates that they
Karin: were this time last year.
Karin: It is still well below
Karin: that rate.
Karin: And we're still seeing it
Karin: kind of in terms of a chart.
Karin: The line sort of bouncing
Karin: along the bottom.
Karin: It hasn't yet turned up.
Kinsey: OK. Is there any way of
Kinsey: understanding when that
Kinsey: stabilization might happen?
Karin: Ah, the recovery
Karin: [laughter].
Kinsey: And maybe I'm jumping the
Kinsey: gun here a little bit,
Kinsey: getting into the recovery?
Karin: No, no, let's go for it.
Kinsey: I'm curious, do you have any
Kinsey: indication?
Karin: So we've been thinking about
Karin: that.
Karin: And I'll tell you where we
Karin: are.
Karin: The recovery is probably
Karin: going to start as soon
Karin: as you get off the bottom.
Karin: Right. So we're at the
Karin: bottom. And I think the
Karin: recovery could start pretty
Karin: soon.
Kinsey: OK.
Karin: But—here's the big but—it
Karin: could be very long and very
Karin: fitful.
Karin: And by that, I mean it could
Karin: take three steps forward,
Karin: one step back in.
Karin: We could have disappointments
Karin: along the way.
Karin: If, for example, there's a
Karin: second wave of infection
Karin: or if, for example, the
Karin: current events going on
Karin: in Minneapolis and other
Karin: cities just start to
Karin: overwhelm any confidence
Karin: that employers and job
Karin: seekers have.
Karin: And as a result, you don't
Karin: get as many
Karin: jobs opened and taken,
Karin: even though maybe the economy
Karin: is ready to come back.
Karin: So there's a long
Karin: path for this recovery.
Karin: And what I would say—maybe
Karin: this is interesting to
Karin: listeners—is when you
Karin: think about a recovery, you
Karin: can define it in different
Karin: ways. So I can define a
Karin: recovery by saying as soon
Karin: as the growth rate gets back
Karin: to above trend levels,
Karin: I know we're back. And
Karin: historically, that can happen
Karin: in just a couple of months.
Karin: In six months, we could
Karin: be at growth rates that are
Karin: higher than we've seen in a
Karin: long time, that feel
Karin: gangbusters, really strong.
Karin: But that's only one aspect of
Karin: the recovery.
Karin: That's like saying the stock
Karin: market is going well, but GDP
Karin: is still not thriving.
Karin: Probably a more useful
Karin: measure of the recovery is
Karin: unemployment, because that's
Karin: where it hits people.
Karin: Are they working? Are they
Karin: earning money?
Karin: Do they feel like they're
engaged
Karin: in productive pursuits?
Karin: And historically, what
Karin: we're seeing is that those
Karin: kinds of recoveries, as
Karin: measured by getting back to
Karin: what's called a good
unemployment
Karin: rate that can take years.
Karin: That can take five years,
Karin: seven years, even longer.
Kinsey: Yeah.
Karin: So the recovery could be
Karin: quite long.
Karin: And I think we'll feel good
Karin: in certain parts of the data
Karin: fairly quickly, maybe in
Karin: five or six months, it will
Karin: start to feel really
Karin: different.
Karin: But I think the long tail
Karin: is pulling all of the people
Karin: back into the labor market
Karin: that lost their job so
Karin: abruptly.
Kinsey: Right. And two points here
Kinsey: that I want to draw attention
Kinsey: to. Number one, that as an
Kinsey: economist, you are tasked
Kinsey: not only with understanding
Kinsey: all of these numbers, but
Kinsey: also with predicting the
Kinsey: future, which [laughs] is a
Kinsey: really difficult task, and I
Kinsey: think that too often I ask
Kinsey: economists like yourself,
Kinsey: what can we expect out of
Kinsey: the future?
Kinsey: We just don't know. There are
Kinsey: a lot of factors at play
Kinsey: here. Obviously, at any
Kinsey: given moment in the United
Kinsey: States, there are. But I
Kinsey: think especially in 2020,
Kinsey: everything has felt like
Kinsey: it's just one unexpected
Kinsey: crisis after another.
Kinsey: And that is important.
Kinsey: The second point is that
Kinsey: unemployment is a useful
Kinsey: measure of everything in the
Kinsey: economy. Like you were
Kinsey: saying, this is understanding
Kinsey: our people bringing in money
Kinsey: to support their families,
Kinsey: to support themselves.
Kinsey: That's the engine of the
Kinsey: economy. That spending, when
Kinsey: they feel comfortable enough
Kinsey: that they are making enough
Kinsey: money to then go back out
Kinsey: and spend that money at
Kinsey: other businesses.
Kinsey: That's how we kick-start an
Kinsey: economy.
Kinsey: And I want to just
Kinsey: understand a little better
Kinsey: how bad unemployment has
Kinsey: been.
Kinsey: We, for so long at Morning
Kinsey: Brew, have covered jobs
Kinsey: reports.
Kinsey: I wrote it a million times,
Kinsey: it feels like.
Kinsey: Historically low
Kinsey: unemployment, 3.5%
Kinsey: unemployment generation,
generation-low
Kinsey: unemployment.
Kinsey: And then suddenly, it was up
Kinsey: to 14.7%
Kinsey: in April, which was
Kinsey: expected to be the worst
Kinsey: month for the job market in
Kinsey: this coronavirus situation.
Kinsey: But can you provide any
Kinsey: context for what that 14.7%
Kinsey: means?
Karin: Yeah, absolutely.
Karin: You're absolutely right. We
were
Karin: sitting at unemployment rates
Karin: of 50-year lows.
Karin: As you said, they were in the
Karin: 3% range and
Karin: it felt great.
Karin: Even groups that
Karin: traditionally had higher
Karin: levels of unemployment were
Karin: starting to see their
Karin: rates go up, their
Karin: unemployment rates go down.
Karin: So we were in this sort of
Karin: sweet spot.
Karin: The question was always, how
Karin: long can this last, how good
Karin: can it get? And I guess we
Karin: got our answer.
Karin: We are now in a position
Karin: where we are at
Karin: a 90-year high
Karin: in unemployment.
Karin: So we went, in the span of
Karin: two months, from a 50-year
Karin: low to a 90-year
Karin: high in unemployment.
Karin: And let me just give you some
Karin: context for how
Karin: painful and abrupt
Karin: that is.
Karin: We lost tens
Karin: of millions of jobs.
Karin: Think about this: We lost
Karin: approximately 21 million
Karin: jobs across March in April
Karin: alone.
Karin: And we will get the May data
Karin: officially on Friday.
Karin: That's the same number of
Karin: jobs that we
Karin: added to the economy
Karin: since 2011.
Karin: So if I took every single
Karin: job, every single non-farm
Karin: payrolls report of 100,000,
Karin: 200,000,
Karin: and I added them up since
Karin: 2011, all those
Karin: jobs added were wiped out in
Karin: two months.
Kinsey: It's astounding.
Karin: It is astounding.
Karin: Here's another way to think
Karin: about it, Kinsey.
Karin: In 10,
Karin: 12 weeks, we racked
Karin: up as much unemployment,
Karin: or more, as in the last
Karin: recession, which took
Karin: 78 weeks to see
Karin: the same amount of
Karin: unemployment.
Karin: So this was incredibly fast.
Kinsey: Yeah.
Kinsey: And I think it's sometimes
Kinsey: difficult in this reality,
Kinsey: that doesn't feel real for
Kinsey: so many people, to wrap your
Kinsey: head around these numbers.
That
Kinsey: this is an absolutely
Kinsey: expedited downturn.
Kinsey: When we think about how bad
Kinsey: it was the last time, it's
Kinsey: at hyper-speed right now.
Kinsey: And we don't know how fast
Kinsey: the recovery will happen.
Kinsey: But it just is
Kinsey: worth taking the time to
Kinsey: really let those stats sink
Kinsey: in. So I want to let our
Kinsey: listeners do that. While
Kinsey: they think a little bit more
Kinsey: about that, we're going to
take
Kinsey: a short break to hear from
Kinsey: our sponsor.
Kinsey: —
Kinsey: And now back to the
conversation
Kinsey: with Karin Kimbrough from
Kinsey: LinkedIn. So, Karin, we're
Kinsey: just talking about
Kinsey: understanding the
Kinsey: unemployment rate, how
Kinsey: we can understand it in
Kinsey: context, what it means when
Kinsey: contrasted to previous
Kinsey: downturns.
Kinsey: I now want to talk a little
Kinsey: bit more about the specific
Kinsey: groups of people.
Kinsey: Who do you think has been
Kinsey: hardest hit as
Kinsey: this unemployment situation
Kinsey: has escalated fast-forward
Kinsey: times a million.
Karin: Yeah, that's the right
question
Karin: to ask.
Karin: One of the things—let me
Karin: answer your question by
Karin: telling you another little
Karin: story.
Karin: So one of the things we noted
Karin: in the most recent
Karin: jobs report was
Karin: that real hourly wages
Karin: went up in April, almost 8%.
Karin: So that's pretty weird,
Karin: right?
Karin: Why are wages going up in the
Karin: middle of a pandemic?
Karin: You might think, oh, it's
Karin: because healthcare workers
Karin: are being sought and they're
being
Karin: paid more.
Karin: No. What happened is because
Karin: all the low wage jobs
Karin: evaporated.
Karin: So all that was left
Karin: were the higher paying,
Karin: higher wage, maybe more
Karin: stable jobs, and that
Karin: somehow perversely
Karin: influenced the average hourly
Karin: rate of wages in April
Karin: in the U.S., and it rose
Karin: to 8%. So
Karin: I'm telling you this story
Karin: because what it meant was so
Karin: many low wage and
Karin: less-skilled jobs just
Karin: really disappeared.
Karin: And when you ask who's
Karin: affected, it's the right
Karin: question to ask.
Karin: Whatever the future looks
Karin: like, and I hope that we get
Karin: to the point where we're
Karin: talking about, either today
Karin: or in another session,
Karin: what does the future look
Karin: like?
Karin: We think about what it means
Karin: to have a fair,
Karin: equitable outcome so that
Karin: the burden of this
Karin: pandemic in terms of health
Karin: and the burden of this
Karin: recession in terms of jobs
Karin: loss doesn't fall squarely on
Karin: one set of people.
Karin: What we're seeing right now
Karin: is that it looks like it has.
Karin: If you look at unemployment
Karin: rates by race,
Karin: obviously it's showing
Karin: up that black
Karin: and Latino unemployment is
Karin: much higher
Karin: than white and Asian
Karin: unemployment.
Karin: We're seeing that among
Karin: frontline workers—so
Karin: these are people who are still
Karin: working—17%
Karin: of them, for example, are
Karin: black, which means they're
Karin: overrepresented as a share of
Karin: society.
Karin: Blacks are usually about 12%
Karin: of society or of
Karin: the workforce.
Karin: And so these are people who
Karin: are working, but they have to
Karin: leave their home.
Karin: They can't be
Karin: using video conferencing
Karin: to continue working.
Karin: They have to maybe take
Karin: public transportation.
Karin: They have to go and be in the
Karin: front line and maybe face
Karin: multiple people a day and
Karin: therefore risk their health.
Karin: So those are just the people
Karin: who are working.
Karin: Now, let's talk about the
people
Karin: who aren't.
Karin: There are many people who
Karin: lost their job right away.
Karin: Most of them were
Karin: sitting in the categories
Karin: where they did very unskilled
Karin: work.
Karin: They may have been
Karin: cleaning office buildings
Karin: that got closed or selling
Karin: food or
Karin: small retail items in a shop
Karin: that was closed as a result
Karin: of the pandemic.
Karin: And so what we're seeing is a
Karin: lot of people overnight
Karin: just became unemployed or
Karin: at least were sent home.
Karin: And if I look at a category
Karin: of who lost their job
Karin: between February and April,
Karin: about 18% of black workers
Karin: lost their job.
Karin: About 16% of white
Karin: workers lost their job.
Karin: For Hispanic
Karin: women, it was one in five
Karin: that became unemployed.
Karin: So that's 20%.
Karin: So each group felt
Karin: this acutely.
Karin: Nobody was spared.
Karin: But certain groups felt it
Karin: more acutely.
Karin: And that's really where
Karin: I think we need to pay
Karin: attention.
Karin: You know, Latinos really,
Karin: really felt it. Blacks, anyone
Karin: who was essentially, I'll
Karin: call it lower-skilled, and if
Karin: I look at a proxy
Karin: for skill, which is just your
Karin: level of education,
Karin: anybody who had less than
Karin: a college degree saw their
Karin: unemployment jump up to 21%.
Karin: So unemployment is already at
Karin: 21% on average
Karin: across the U.S.
Karin: if you don't have a college
Karin: degree.
Kinsey: That's a lot.
Karin: That's a lot.
Karin: And that's a lot of
insecurity.
Karin: There's a lot of income
Karin: insecurity and maybe food
Karin: insecurity that goes behind
Karin: those numbers that I'm just
Karin: rolling off and rattling off.
Karin: It really means families that
Karin: might not be eating or paying
Karin: all their bills or feeling
Karin: sure about their housing.
Kinsey: Right.
Karin: So it's a big toll.
Kinsey: And, you know, we talk a lot
Kinsey: about numbers in this
Kinsey: conversation. But you make
Kinsey: an incredible point. These
Kinsey: are people, these are
Kinsey: families who can't provide
Kinsey: for their families. These
Kinsey: are people who are scared
Kinsey: for their livelihoods.
Kinsey: And I think that in a lot
Kinsey: of ways, this has
Kinsey: contributed to some of what
Kinsey: we're seeing across the
Kinsey: United States today with
Kinsey: protests. One protester told
Kinsey: The New York Times that,
Kinsey: quote, unemployment is
Kinsey: gasoline and then abuse of
Kinsey: power is the match.
Kinsey: Can you help explain
Kinsey: a little bit more how
Kinsey: unemployment is playing into
Kinsey: the unrest happening all
Kinsey: around the United States
Kinsey: today?
Karin: Well, I think people feel
Karin: that they're being failed by
Karin: the institutions
Karin: that kind of
Karin: stand up our society and
Karin: the leaders that,
Karin: you know, running or at least
Karin: administering those
institutions,
Karin: maybe aren't hearing them.
Karin: And that's been a theme that
Karin: was the theme of the last
Karin: election as well.
Karin: But I think here you're
Karin: seeing people feel like they
Karin: went overnight from
Karin: feeling like they had a lot
Karin: of promise and opportunity
Karin: to having nothing.
Karin: And it is not
Karin: enough to say,
Karin: well, maybe the jobs will
Karin: come back.
Karin: I mean, the sense of loss
Karin: people have when something
Karin: comes overnight and snatches
Karin: away their sense of safety.
Karin: That's incredibly powerful.
Karin: It's scary.
Karin: And I think we have to
Karin: understand how scary it is
Karin: for people to feel that
Karin: this weird pandemic
Karin: that you can't see, that you
Karin: couldn't even imagine at the
Karin: beginning of the year,
Karin: suddenly has come and shut
Karin: down our entire economy.
Karin: It's caused all these job
Karin: losses. It's caused all these
Karin: health losses.
Karin: I didn't even mention that.
Karin: But the, you know, 100,000
Karin: people that have died
Karin: officially from COVID-19.
Karin: So people are feeling very
Karin: insecure.
Karin: And one of the things,
actually,
Karin: Kinsey, you didn't ask this,
Karin: but I bet you were going to
get
Karin: here, so I'm going to jump
Karin: there anyway, is
Karin: the fact that schools
Karin: are closed is also having
Karin: a disparate effect on women,
Karin: we think. We're seeing
Karin: unemployment rates for women
Karin: go higher,
Karin: as you would expect.
Karin: And unfortunately, they're
Karin: going higher than for men.
Karin: But what we think is playing
Karin: a part of this is that with
Karin: kids not in school, many
Karin: women who have young children
Karin: are playing the role of
Karin: caregiver and they can't go
Karin: look for work.
Karin: So everything is sort of tied
Karin: to one another. Until the
Karin: education system can figure
Karin: itself out, how do we educate
Karin: children who are either, you
Karin: know, first graders or
Karin: freshmen [laughs] and going
Karin: to college for the first
Karin: time, until we know how that
Karin: works, a lot of people
Karin: are sort of trying to
Karin: take care of kids that are
Karin: younger and figure out how to
Karin: run households
Karin: before they can send
Karin: themselves back to work, if
Karin: that makes any sense.
Karin: And one of the things that
we're
Karin: seeing in our own data that
Karin: I wanted to share with you is
Karin: that there is a differential
Karin: in women getting hired
Karin: now.
Karin: So we have this LinkedIn
Karin: hiring data and
Karin: it showed, at the beginning
Karin: of the pandemic, that women
Karin: were losing their jobs, as
Karin: were men.
Karin: And then what we started to
Karin: see was that hiring
Karin: rates for men
Karin: started to sort of stabilize
Karin: and actually weren't
Karin: increasing, especially
Karin: for millennial men,
Karin: but for women, they were
Karin: continuing to decrease.
Karin: So we looked also
Karin: at job applications
Karin: and we saw that millennial
Karin: women were actually applying
Karin: to jobs less during
Karin: this pandemic, which suggests
Karin: they're probably opting to
Karin: stay home for other reasons.
Karin: Maybe they have children they
Karin: need to care for.
Karin: Maybe they have parents that
Karin: they're trying to protect and
Karin: not go out and get a job.
Karin: So what we're seeing is the
Karin: education system is also tied
Karin: up into unemployment and we
Karin: need to fix all of that in
Karin: order to let people get back
Karin: to work.
Kinsey: Yeah. It's almost like
Kinsey: the entire economy feels
Kinsey: like [laughs] a supply chain
Kinsey: and that employment is one
Kinsey: notch of this very long
Kinsey: chain. You know, if people
Kinsey: get the education they need,
Kinsey: they can then get a better,
Kinsey: higher paying job.
Kinsey: But at the same time, the
Kinsey: education system is facing
Kinsey: the same challenges that any
Kinsey: business is today, and
Kinsey: it's disproportionately
Kinsey: affecting other parts of the
Kinsey: supply chain, being women
Kinsey: or minorities.
Kinsey: It's very interesting to try
Kinsey: and piece together all of
Kinsey: these very different jigsaw
Kinsey: puzzle pieces.
Kinsey: But I also want, you know,
Kinsey: we talked about race.
Kinsey: We've now talked about
gender.
Kinsey: I'm interested in the
Kinsey: geography aspect of the
Kinsey: unemployment situation
Kinsey: today. Have you noticed any
Kinsey: differences between the
Kinsey: people who are searching for
Kinsey: jobs or the labor markets in
Kinsey: general in rural areas
Kinsey: versus urban areas?
Karin: Yeah, we are seeing some
Karin: differences.
Karin: And I want to be cautious
Karin: about drawing
Karin: too many inferences so early
Karin: on. But I can tell you what
Karin: we're seeing and
Karin: maybe let you think about
Karin: what [laughs] what explains
Karin: all of it.
Karin: But what we're seeing is
Karin: two things.
Karin: One is we do see a difference
Karin: between some,
Karin: we'll call it coastal areas
Karin: and inland areas.
Karin: So in terms of confidence,
Karin: something I haven't mentioned,
Karin: but we actually conduct a
Karin: study which we call the
Karin: Workforce Confidence Index,
Karin: and we survey about 5,000
Karin: people across America every
Karin: couple of weeks and we ask
Karin: them, how are you doing?
Karin: How do you feel about your
Karin: future prospects to find a
Karin: job? How do you feel about
Karin: the industry, if you're
Karin: currently working now, how do
Karin: you feel about that industry?
Karin: Do you feel like you can work
Karin: effectively from home?
Karin: And what we see is that
Karin: people on the coasts during
Karin: the pandemic were a little
Karin: bit more pessimistic
Karin: than people, say, in the
Karin: Southeast that were inland
Karin: or in the Plains area
Karin: or in the Southwest.
Karin: So the coasts, maybe because
Karin: they were hit harder and
Karin: they're larger cities with
Karin: more urban density, they
Karin: were much more pessimistic in
Karin: the last couple of months.
Karin: And there was a little bit—I
Karin: wouldn't call it optimism,
Karin: but a little bit more of a
Karin: sanguine approach—in
Karin: other areas.
Karin: So there's a confidence
Karin: aspect.
Karin: We're also seeing
Karin: just the rate at which people
Karin: are being hired.
Karin: So not how you feel.
Karin: Totally different set of data.
Karin: This is just like our
Karin: employers hiring at the same
Karin: rate as they were last year
Karin: at this time.
Karin: And we're seeing that city
Karin: by city, some
Karin: cities, through the end of
Karin: May, really look like they've
Karin: stabilized.
Karin: It doesn't seem to be
Karin: worsening. In other
Karin: cities, it does look
Karin: like it's continuing
Karin: to get a little bit worse.
Karin: Not in freefall, but
Karin: it hasn't stopped getting
Karin: worse.
Karin: And, you know, some of the
Karin: cities, just to answer your
Karin: question, that are,
Karin: I would say the same, you
Karin: know, San Francisco and
Karin: Seattle, [indistinct] the
Karin: West Coast cities, they
Karin: seemed like they were, if
Karin: I can say this, the hiring
Karin: rates were less affected.
Karin: It may be because they're
Karin: dominated by industries
Karin: that were more resilient so
Karin: far, like tech.
Karin: We're also seeing Houston,
Karin: Chicago,
Karin: Denver, Dallas, Nashville.
Karin: These are cities that had
Karin: that free fall in hiring
Karin: but are now stable, and
Karin: haven't gotten worse through
Karin: May.
Karin: So maybe we've hit a bottom.
Karin: On the other hand, there are
Karin: a couple of cities that
Karin: through May, appeared to get
Karin: worse.
Karin: So April was terrible, and we
Karin: were hoping it would flatten
Karin: out, and they've
Karin: crept down a little bit more
Karin: in terms of hiring.
Karin: And those cities are Boston,
Karin: New York, Miami,
Karin: Philly, Detroit,
Karin: Atlanta.
Karin: Those all continued
Karin: to worsen.
Karin: So I feel like it's too soon
Karin: to call the turning point and
Karin: say maybe now the recovery is
Karin: starting.
Karin: I think maybe we need another
Karin: [indistinct] months of data.
Kinsey: I just wonder why it's those
Kinsey: cities that are worsening.
Karin: Yeah.
Kinsey: Is it because of the people
Kinsey: who call it those cities
Kinsey: home?
Karin: It could absolutely be a
Karin: number of things.
Karin: I'll tell you, it could be
Karin: the industries that dominate
Karin: those towns.
Karin: It's hard for me to be
Karin: completely scientific about
Karin: it, because if I tell you,
Karin: Boston is still worsening.
Karin: You know, Boston is dominated
Karin: by many things, one of which
Karin: is education.
Karin: So that makes sense because
Karin: education is going to be
Karin: transformed by this pandemic.
Karin: But the other one is
Karin: healthcare.
Karin: And that has been
Karin: a sector that traditionally
Karin: has been pretty resilient,
Karin: obviously, to this pandemic,
Karin: because that's the part of
Karin: the front line of response.
Karin: So in some cases, I would say
Karin: industry might explain it,
Karin: but not entirely.
Karin: The other thing may just be
Karin: how quickly
Karin: and densely people were
Karin: affected by the pandemic.
Karin: It may be the ability of the
Karin: people in those cities to
Karin: work remotely.
Karin: So it may be the case—I'm
Karin: making this up the way, I do
Karin: not know—if Detroit
Karin: residents typically can't
Karin: work remotely, they have
Karin: to show up.
Karin: And as a result, it may
Karin: be a heavier impact from the
Karin: shutdown than, say, San
Karin: Francisco, where a lot of
Karin: tech workers got sent home
Karin: at the beginning of March and
Karin: have just been working from
Karin: home with monitors and
Karin: screens and laptops.
Kinsey: And just think about, you
Kinsey: know, the experience of
Kinsey: living and working in New
Kinsey: York. I'm lucky enough to be
Kinsey: able to do my job from
Kinsey: wherever I need to do it, at
Kinsey: least for right now.
Kinsey: We've been recording
Kinsey: remotely. It's been fine
Kinsey: so far. But you think about
Kinsey: the ways that you stimulate
Kinsey: the economy, you being an
Kinsey: individual person.
Kinsey: The businesses that you
Kinsey: interact with most
Kinsey: frequently on a daily basis
Kinsey: are in-person businesses.
Kinsey: It's going down the street
Kinsey: to get a cup of coffee or
Kinsey: getting on the subway to
Kinsey: support the person who is
Kinsey: driving the train.
Kinsey: These are all things that
Kinsey: require people to be there
Kinsey: in person.
Kinsey: So when we stop doing all of
Kinsey: that, we are still working.
Kinsey: We're still recording this
Kinsey: podcast.
Kinsey: But those people are losing
Kinsey: the traffic coming in the
Kinsey: door and subsequently losing
Kinsey: their footing.
Kinsey: I want to take a short break
Kinsey: here to hear from our
Kinsey: sponsor.
Kinsey: And then when we come back,
Kinsey: Karin, we're going to talk a
Kinsey: little bit more about a few
Kinsey: hard-hitters in the labor
Kinsey: force and then have some fun
Kinsey: with the Business Casual
Kinsey: wheel.
Kinsey: — And now back to the
conversation
Kinsey: with Karin Kimbrough from
Kinsey: LinkedIn.
Kinsey: So, Karin, one of
Kinsey: the big questions that I
Kinsey: definitely want to hit on
Kinsey: with you is the role
Kinsey: of the government in all of
Kinsey: this. You know, obviously,
Kinsey: we have the statistics
Kinsey: coming out of the government
Kinsey: that are widely tracked,
Kinsey: closely watched.
Kinsey: But there's also the
Kinsey: opposite side of this here,
Kinsey: that the government is
Kinsey: playing an active role, that
Kinsey: we have had—and some
Kinsey: might call it a patchwork—but
Kinsey: we have had a series of
Kinsey: relief packages passed to
Kinsey: help people get back on
Kinsey: their feet during this
Kinsey: health crisis and economic
Kinsey: crisis.
Kinsey: So my question for you is,
Kinsey: once a person loses their
Kinsey: job, is what the government
Kinsey: did, in your view, you know,
Kinsey: expanding unemployment
Kinsey: benefits, sending most
Kinsey: Americans checks in the
Kinsey: mail—is that enough?
Karin: So I thought at
Karin: the very outset that the
Karin: stimulus packages weren't
Karin: enough.
Karin: I thought they were a great
Karin: start. I think I'm on record
Karin: as saying it's a great start,
Karin: but it's not enough.
Karin: And it was pretty big.
Karin: The U.S. was very heroic in
Karin: the size of the stimulus
Karin: package.
Karin: But I think as we
Karin: see the pandemic having
Karin: ever-longer impacts on the
Karin: labor market, and I think we
Karin: have to be realistic.
Karin: If you lose 20 million
Karin: jobs or 25 million jobs,
Karin: they are not going to all
Karin: come back because our society
Karin: is fundamentally going
Karin: to look different.
Karin: The new normal is not the old
Karin: normal.
Karin: And the most important thing
Karin: is for the policies that
Karin: our leaders and our
Karin: communities devise
Karin: be oriented towards what that
Karin: new normal is going to look
Karin: like. I think it's pointless
Karin: to set up policies that
Karin: try to just bridge us so we
Karin: can get back to the old
Karin: normal.
Karin: And by that I mean, how
Karin: many of you are paying cash
Karin: right now?
Karin: We went cashless pretty
Karin: quickly, right?
Karin: A lot of things changed
Karin: overnight.
Karin: All the businesses that had
Karin: online presences and were
Karin: able to transition their
Karin: business online or remotely
Karin: were probably able to
Karin: navigate this so far better
Karin: than those that hadn't yet
Karin: really invested in their
Karin: online presence.
Karin: So things have transformed
Karin: and I feel like the policies
Karin: of the government need to
Karin: set us up for that new
Karin: future.
Karin: That was a little bit of a
meta
Karin: answer [laughs] to a very
Karin: specific question.
Karin: But the answer to your
Karin: question specifically is that
Karin: I think more needs to be
Karin: done. And I think there's
Karin: some interesting questions
Karin: that economists are debating
Karin: right now.
Karin: One of which is comparing,
Karin: say, the European approach to
Karin: the pandemic and what I'll
Karin: call the North American
Karin: approach. And the North
Karin: American approach we know,
Karin: which is you may
Karin: get laid off by the flower
Karin: shop you work in and
Karin: you can apply for
Karin: unemployment benefits.
Karin: And the U.S.
Karin: government has ensured that
Karin: they are much more generous
Karin: and that they last longer
Karin: than they had in the past.
Karin: And that is a great way to
Karin: keep a labor market extremely
Karin: flexible.
Karin: The minute the economy comes
Karin: back, you've got a worker
Karin: who is possibly ready
Karin: to jump on that next
Karin: opportunity because they're
Karin: not employed.
Karin: Let's talk about the European
Karin: approach in Europe.
Karin: What they did is they wanted
Karin: to preserve the
Karin: employee-employer match.
Karin: They wanted to keep people
Karin: employed.
Karin: So the government
Karin: told employers we
Karin: will pay up to 80%
Karin: of your employee's salary
Karin: for you to keep that person
Karin: engaged, even if they're not
Karin: actively working for you.
Karin: And so many people in Europe
Karin: did not become unemployed.
Karin: They were just sent home and
Karin: earned a pretty large
Karin: fraction of their salary
Karin: on the government's dime.
Karin: So, when the recovery
Karin: begins, there
Karin: is somebody who is still
Karin: attached to their employer.
Karin: And if employer comes back,
Karin: that employee is ready to get
Karin: remobilized and probably
Karin: doesn't need much training
Karin: and there's not much search
Karin: costs for the employer to get
Karin: going because they already
have
Karin: their employee.
Karin: On the other hand, if society
Karin: fundamentally transforms
Karin: and we have new businesses
Karin: and new opportunities, it
Karin: is going to be harder to pull
Karin: that employee out of that job
Karin: into a new job.
Karin: And so the recovery could be
Karin: slower in Europe, but in
Karin: the meantime, it has probably
Karin: provided more security to the
Karin: individual.
Karin: So it's two different
approaches.
Kinsey: It sounds like
Kinsey: the guarantee that you're
Kinsey: going to get 80% of the
Kinsey: money that you typically
Kinsey: make is a little
Kinsey: more reliable, or maybe
Kinsey: stronger is the word, of a
Kinsey: promise than the paycheck
Kinsey: protection program, which
Kinsey: has been a nightmare
Kinsey: for many small businesses.
Kinsey: Getting the money.
Kinsey: Understanding who's giving
Kinsey: you the money.
Kinsey: Understanding what you have
Kinsey: to do if you do get the
Kinsey: loan.
Kinsey: And then understanding how
Kinsey: to get loan forgiveness has
Kinsey: been a huge headache for so
Kinsey: many small businesses across
Kinsey: America.
Kinsey: I think, also, we should
Kinsey: pay attention to the fact
Kinsey: that it's a lot easier for
Kinsey: a company that is
Kinsey: online-savvy, that has
Kinsey: people who can understand
Kinsey: all of this, maybe has a CFO
Kinsey: or someone who's in charge
Kinsey: of the finances, to get
Kinsey: access to these funds.
Kinsey: And it is for a small
Kinsey: mom-and-pop-type shop to
Kinsey: make sure that they are
Kinsey: getting the most out of
Kinsey: these relief packages that
Kinsey: have been passed.
Kinsey: I don't know. I don't know
what's
Kinsey: going to work better, but
Kinsey: [laughs] it's just —
Karin: I was going to say we're
Karin: absolutely seeing that in
Karin: how small and large-sized
Karin: companies are responding over
Karin: the last few months.
Karin: And what's interesting is
Karin: that before the pandemic hit,
Karin: small businesses were
Karin: hiring at gangbuster
Karin: rates, probably a faster rate
Karin: than large employees.
Karin: And by small, I mean
Karin: companies that have 200
Karin: employees or less,
Karin: and by large, I mean
Karin: companies with a
Karin: thousand-plus employees.
Karin: And we saw a big difference.
Karin: The small companies were
Karin: hiring really quickly.
Karin: Lots of confidence there
Karin: before the pandemic.
Karin: And the minute the pandemic
Karin: happened and of course, many
Karin: of them were probably forced
Karin: to shut down because they
Karin: weren't essential retail,
Karin: they just
Karin: hit the pause button and
Karin: retreated, and we saw their
Karin: hiring rates go down by like
Karin: 40%.
Karin: By contrast, big companies
Karin: weren't hiring as
Karin: aggressively in early
Karin: January, but they also didn't
Karin: hit the brakes as quickly in
Karin: March and April.
Karin: And their hiring rates were
Karin: down high
Karin: 20s, low 30%
Karin: range.
Karin: So big difference in how
Karin: large and small companies
Karin: have reacted.
Karin: And I think that's also
Karin: affected the workers.
Karin: Whether you work for a big,
Karin: white collar firm that does
Karin: professional services or you
Karin: work for a small retailer
Karin: that, I keep using the flower
Karin: shop example, I've no idea
Karin: why [laughs], but works for
Karin: flower shop.
Kinsey: Right. Do you think that
Kinsey: small business can come back
Kinsey: from this?
Karin: I think it's going to be
really
Karin: hard.
Karin: I think that
Karin: the longer you stay
Karin: shut, but
Karin: you are burning cash just
Karin: to kind of keep your fixed
Karin: expenses going.
Karin: So if you're paying your rent
Karin: or keeping your internet on,
Karin: even if there's nobody to use
Karin: it, the harder it is
Karin: once you're able to open up
Karin: and actually have enough
Karin: money to operate.
Karin: And this is what we've heard.
Karin: We're looking at Asian
Karin: experiences because they're a
Karin: little bit ahead of us in
Karin: terms of this pandemic and
Karin: navigating it.
Karin: And one of the things that
Karin: we've heard is that as
Karin: certain Asian economies open
Karin: up, some of the small
Karin: businesses have burned
Karin: through so much cash just to
Karin: stay alive, quote
Karin: unquote, during the shutdown,
Karin: that once they're finally
Karin: back in business, they
Karin: can't quite
Karin: make it.
Karin: They suddenly have to operate
Karin: at half capacity.
Karin: If you're a restaurant, you
Karin: have half the number of
tables,
Karin: for example.
Karin: And so your margins are
Karin: really tight.
Karin: And suddenly you've used up
Karin: all your cash in the prior
Karin: two months and you just don't
Karin: make it. So I think there's a
Karin: lot of risk of bankruptcy
Karin: in the future.
Karin: And I think the small
Karin: retailers are especially
Karin: vulnerable.
Kinsey: OK.
Kinsey: You know, Karin, we've
Kinsey: talked a lot in this
Kinsey: conversation about
Kinsey: the important forces at play
Kinsey: in the labor market and also
Kinsey: importantly, how those
Kinsey: forces are impacting
Kinsey: other parts of the economy
Kinsey: that aren't just
understanding
Kinsey: the workforce today.
Kinsey: I think one of the most
Kinsey: interesting takeaways that
Kinsey: I've gotten from this
conversation
Kinsey: is that so much
Kinsey: of the labor market isn't
Kinsey: just the labor market, quote
Kinsey: unquote. It is a
Kinsey: multifaceted beast
Kinsey: [laughs] that has a lot of
Kinsey: different factors at play
Kinsey: here.
Kinsey: And the experience of being
Kinsey: a participant in the labor
Kinsey: force today varies greatly
Kinsey: from person to person, from
Kinsey: industry to industry, from
Kinsey: geography to geography.
Kinsey: And I've really enjoyed
Kinsey: better understanding that.
Kinsey: I think, you know, I've
Kinsey: asked a lot of you in terms
Kinsey: of predicting the future.
Kinsey: So I will refrain from doing
Kinsey: any more of that.
Kinsey: So instead, we are going to
Kinsey: take out the Business Casual
Kinsey: wheel.
Kinsey: Do a little bit of
rapid-fire, have
Kinsey: some fun with these questions
Kinsey: and see what happens. So I'm
Kinsey: taking out the app here.
Kinsey: I'll spin it for you since
Kinsey: we're remote.
Kinsey: But here we go. [sound of
wheel spinning]
Kinsey: [sound of a ding] OK. Landed
on Follow
Kinsey: for Follow.
Kinsey: So who is someone you
Kinsey: recommend that our listeners
Kinsey: follow on social media,
Kinsey: Twitter, Instagram, maybe
Kinsey: LinkedIn?
Karin: Um, guys, I got to tell you,
Karin: if you follow
Karin: Jeff Weiner, he's our
Karin: outgoing CEO of
Karin: LinkedIn, and he's
Karin: just phenomenal.
Karin: He's a big
Karin: thinker.
Karin: He's not just thinking about
Karin: running the company.
Karin: He's thinking about how do we
Karin: transform society.
Karin: How do we make it fairer,
Karin: greener,
Karin: and ensure more opportunity
Karin: and access to opportunity for
Karin: people? So he's asking those
Karin: big questions.
Karin: And so I would encourage you
Karin: all to follow him.
Kinsey: Yeah, we are big fans of
Kinsey: Jeff and also big fans of
Kinsey: asking big questions.
Kinsey: [laughs].
Karin: I can see that. [laughs]
Kinsey: Right. Taking another spin.
Kinsey: [sound of wheel spinning]
Kinsey: [sound of a ding] All right,
it landed on
Kinsey: Oh, Shit. So when's the
Kinsey: moment in your career that
Kinsey: made you say, oh shit> It
Kinsey: could [Karin laughs] either
be
Kinsey: messed up or it could be
Kinsey: that you were really excited
Kinsey: about something or that you
Kinsey: realized everything was
Kinsey: about to change. An oh, shit
Kinsey: moment.
Karin: Um, OK. So I worked for
Karin: almost 10 years at the New
Karin: York Fed
Karin: and a true story.
Karin: I actually left
Karin: a Wall Street banking job
Karin: to go to the New York Fed
Karin: because I was at that stage
Karin: where I needed to kind of
Karin: take it a little easier.
Karin: I had one little child.
Karin: I thought maybe there'll be
another
Karin: one coming.
Karin: And so I thought I needed a
Karin: job that was more 9 to 5.
Karin: And my oh, shit
Karin: moment was
Karin: in 2007
Karin: when I realized
Karin: that the [laughs] economy
Karin: was melting down.
Karin: And I called my boss from the
Karin: side of the road on vacation
Karin: in August of 2007.
Karin: I was like, do I need to come
Karin: back?
Karin: And she was like, oh, no,
Karin: this is going to last 10
Karin: years. This is a credit
Karin: crisis that's [Kinsey laughs]
going to
Karin: eat up the whole economy.
Karin: And you know what?
Karin: She was right.
Karin: Go enjoy your vacation and
Karin: [indistinct].
Karin: And she was right.
Karin: 2007, 2008,
Karin: 2009 were a disaster,
Karin: getting called in
Karin: on Sunday mornings to come
Karin: in. And the question in my
Karin: head was, which bank is
Karin: failing now?
Karin: That was my oh, shit moment.
Kinsey: Yeah. So much for that
Kinsey: easier 9 to 5 job, right?
Kinsey: [laughs] All right. One last
spin
Kinsey: around the wheel.
Kinsey: [sound of wheel spinning]
[sound of a ding] And it landed
Kinsey: on Call me Crazy.
Kinsey: So what is a hot take
Kinsey: that you have that you feel
Kinsey: like you're either in the
Kinsey: minority or, you know, this
Kinsey: could have happened and
Kinsey: already come true or
Kinsey: something that you believe
Kinsey: right now that people
Kinsey: would call you crazy for.
Karin: Well,
Karin: I feel like there's
Karin: a chance, I know that we're
Karin: all feeling extremely
Karin: down about the headlines.
Karin: The toll on health and safety
Karin: and civil rights.
Karin: Least I am.
Karin: I feel like maybe this is a
Karin: chance for us to transform
Karin: ourselves into people that
Karin: really, you know, stand
Karin: up and say what we need our
Karin: society to deliver for us.
Karin: No matter where you are in
Karin: the political spectrum, you
Karin: know, holding our
Karin: institutions accountable to
Karin: deliver the things
Karin: that we need to make our
Karin: society function.
Karin: And so there's a little piece
Karin: of me that's optimistic that
Karin: maybe a year or two from now,
Karin: we have kind of come through
Karin: it in the sense that
Karin: people are more engaged with
Karin: their civil society in a
Karin: peaceful, proactive way.
Kinsey: Yeah, and I genuinely
Kinsey: hope that you
Kinsey: are not crazy [Karin laughs]
Kinsey: for that take.
Karin: I hope so too.
Kinsey: I hope that it is a cold
take,
Kinsey: not a hot take.
Kinsey: I want you to be right.
Kinsey: And I think that
Kinsey: taking the opportunity to
Kinsey: all learn and grow from
Kinsey: what's going on in the world
Kinsey: around us right now is
Kinsey: incredibly important to find
Kinsey: resources, to educate
Kinsey: yourself, to talk to people
Kinsey: you've never spoken to
Kinsey: before, to reach out to
Kinsey: communities you've never
Kinsey: reached out to before.
Kinsey: And I implore everybody
Kinsey: listening to do the same,
Kinsey: to take your words, Karin,
Kinsey: to heart.
Kinsey: And thank you. I love ending
Kinsey: on a note of hopefully some
Kinsey: optimism.
Kinsey: So thank you so much for
Kinsey: coming on Business Casual.
Kinsey: I have genuinely enjoyed
Kinsey: this conversation very, very
Kinsey: much. So thank you for
Kinsey: taking the time.
Karin: Kinsey, it was my pleasure.
Karin: Thanks for having me.
Kinsey: Thank you so much for
Kinsey: listening to this episode of
Kinsey: Business Casual.
Kinsey: I have two things to talk to
Kinsey: you about right now. So
Kinsey: first of all, I know we
Kinsey: ended on something of an
Kinsey: optimistic note in that
Kinsey: conversation with Karin, but
Kinsey: a lot of what's going on
Kinsey: right now is making it hard
Kinsey: for people to find sources
Kinsey: of optimism.
Kinsey: Karin spoke at length about
Kinsey: the struggles that small
Kinsey: businesses are facing,
Kinsey: especially right now.
Kinsey: So my ask for you: Next time
Kinsey: you go to order something
Kinsey: online or order food, try to
Kinsey: do it from a local small
Kinsey: business. They need your
Kinsey: help more than ever right
Kinsey: now.
Kinsey: And the second thing, if you
Kinsey: or someone you know has
Kinsey: experienced unemployment
Kinsey: during this pandemic and
Kinsey: economic crisis, I want to
Kinsey: hear from you.
Kinsey: We talked a lot about
numbers,
Kinsey: but like Karin said, there
Kinsey: are people behind those
Kinsey: numbers. And we want to hear
Kinsey: your stories.
Kinsey: You can reach out to me on
Kinsey: my email,
Kinsey: Kinsey@morningbrew.com.
Kinsey: That's k i n s e y
Kinsey: @morningbrew.com. And I'll
see
Kinsey: you next time.
