Peter Robinson: … http://twitter.com/uncknowledge;
http://twitter.com/uncknowledge. A classicist
and military historian, Victor Davis Hanson
is a Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.
He is the author of many books including recently
A War Like No Other – How the Athenians
and Spartans fought the Peloponnesian War.
Robert Baer spent 20 years in the Central
Intelligence Agency as a field officer covering
the Middle East. Mr. Baer is now a journalist
and author. His latest book The Devil We Know
 – Dealing With the New Iranian Super Power.
Victor – Bob, thank you for joining us.
Segment one – will Iran or won’t it? An
October report by the International Atomic
Energy Agency “Iran has sufficient information
to design and produce a workable implosion
nuclear device”. Do you buy that? Iran is
now capable of producing nuclear weapons?
Robert Baer: I think absolutely.
Peter Robinson: Without any doubt?
Robert Baer: Oh without any doubt, I think
they are very close, they could move very
quickly on this. We have not even seen the
beginning of their programs, their covert
capacity. Picks stuff up in Eastern Europe,
in Russia, they could move very quickly if
they wanted to.
Peter Robinson: Victor do you buy that as
well?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah, I think the key
word was a nuclear weapon because I do not
know how much in enriched uranium and what
quality it is would allow them to produce
a series of weapons. Remember the United States
after the Nagasaki bomb really did not have
an arsenal atomic weapons for six months.
So I do not know they might get one or they
might get perhaps two, but I think that is
why it is so important that we watch these
deals where they are offering to have other
outside people, France or Russia, enriched
uranium. I think they are having a little
bit of problems to get a series of
Peter Robinson: Can I question. Who knows
what? You are a former CIA operative, you
are a military historian, how do you form
your opinions about what is actually going
on. You are doing more than reading the New
York Times.
Robert Baer: I think everybody
Peter Robinson: In other words can you form
really good opinions on what is publicly available
information?
Robert Baer: I think you can and I think you
can project I mean I had the advantage of
seeing classified reporting in Iran and frankly
it was not good. We have been out of the country
since 1979.
Peter Robinson: How recently did you see?
Robert Baer: Until December, 1997 when I left
the CIA. I followed it fairly closely from
the sidelines. It is not very good and the
Iranians are very good at procuring banned
materials very easily and they are very smart
people. They are capable of making bomb and
they have been going back to really the 1970’s.
What the important thing is they have chosen
not to and that is really one of the key questions.
Peter Robinson: Right. Let me quote you Bob.
You right in The Devil We Know “right now
the Iranians do not need a nuclear bomb. The
Iranians are too smart to risk the gains they
have made in Iraq and Lebanon by forcing the
issue.” So they have the ability to produce
a nuclear weapon, they can do so quickly,
but they will not?
Robert Baer: I think they are buying time.
They are trying to remain a radical revolutionary
power and yet get themselves at the international
negotiating table and the way to do this to
keep on letting information out about their
bomb, saying they are going to do it, backing
off and they are trying to work their way.
I do not think they are going to make it into
the G20 by this, by simply forcing our hands.
That is my opinion.
Peter Robinson: Victor what do you think they
are up to?
Victor Davis Hanson: Well I think it depends
on what Iran we look at. The present day Iran
I think that they feel that the Iraqi Democracy
did not implode like they thought it would
and because of
Peter Robinson: You mean after this recent
election?
Victor Davis Hanson: Exactly and
Peter Robinson: They thought they were about
to lose their regime, they thought it was
about to get returned?
Victor Davis Hanson: Well I think that the
idea that Iraq is next door and it actually
is working in somewhat stable fashion and
then you have a large dissident movement within
Iran, then Lebanon did not become just entirely
a Hezbollah enclave and that Lebanon still
survived as a quasi constitutional state.
Their way of looking, Manichean way of looking
at the world, we say well they are very powerful
and they won and Iraq empowered, but in their
way of thinking, I think they look at Lebanon,
they look at the Sunni States that are actually
more favorable to Israel stealthfully than
they are Iran, they look at what is going
on in Iraq and they think, my gosh, we are
in an unstable position and maybe this Russian
route and a bomb or two will allow us to do
what Pakistan has done. Give us some autonomy.
I do not think that they feel they are in
a very stable position. I do not think they
are either. I think their regime is shaky.
Peter Robinson: Give me, who actually runs
Iran? You have a population of about 70 million
people and a very, I was going to say a strange
form of government because it is so, at least
as far as I am aware, is dissimilar to certainly
has no parallel in the West and as far as
I am aware, it does not really have any parallel
elsewhere in the Muslim world. A strange Theocracy
 – you have an elected President, an elected
legislature elected from slates approved by
they always seem to have an enormous, how
has that?
Victor Davis Hanson: That changed on the 12th
of June. I think this is a bit of an exaggeration
but there was a military coup and the country
is being run by the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corp
Peter Robinson: Which is about 100,000 strong,
is that right?
Victor Davis Hanson: It is a little bit more
than that. But you have the besiege which
is their reserves that came out in the street.
The problem with that
Peter Robinson: The reserves are several million?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah, they could be several
million; they could put 2 million people in
a uniform very quickly. But the besiege are
volunteers and they are being integrated into
the Revolutionary Guard – fully integrated.
But the point is, the Commanders, and especially
in the Defense Minister came through what
is called the Kutz Force which has a long
history of shedding blood, particularly American
blood. The Kutz Force was responsible for
the two bombings in Argentina; it was responsible
for blowing up the Marines in Beirut in 1983
and on and on. Now that these people are fully
in control, and if made Rav Sanjani back down
as well as Karube Ranfer. Elections this time
and Musave is what are these people going
to do? Are they reformed revolutionaries or
are the still radicals? That we do not know
yet so far.
Peter Robinson: Okay. Segment two what does
Tehran think it is doing? We have actually
touched on this. Iran slightly bigger than
the State of Alaska, population about 70 million,
religion Shi’a Muslim, resources vast deposits
of oil and natural gas. Robert Baer in The
Devil We Know “what is critical to understand
is that Iran today has an unshakable belief
in its right to Empire. It means to achieve
this through proxy warfare and control over
oil supplies”. That is two sentences and
two assertions, let us take them one at a
time. An unshakable belief and a right to
Empire.
Robert Baer: Do you want me to say it politically
incorrect?
Peter Robinson: Yeah, please.
Robert Baer: They think they are superior;
the Iranians do, to the Arabs.
Peter Robinson: So there is an ethnic overlay?
Robert Baer: It is huge. Look at the ethnic
Beaudoin as backward and they look at their
civilization as more advanced than even the
West. They will go through their old empires,
they will go through any number of things
and they think they are a superior culture.
We are talking about a people and there is
a certain amount of exaggeration, and they
also look at the chaos around them on Sunday.
There was a bombing that killed 41 insist
on Province that was done by suicide bomber
and they look at the mess in Pakistan, in
Afghanistan and they look at Iraq at the suicide
bombings there and they see the barbarians
at the gate. And they do not intend to let
those barbarians cross the border. And if
they have to become aggressive to stop the
barbarians, which they look, again this is
an exaggeration, as Sunni Muslims they will.
And they will do it through proxies; they
will do it through irregular warfare, asymmetric
warfare if you like.
Peter Robinson: The Persian proportion of
the population of Iran itself
Robert Baer: Fifty-one percent.
Peter Robinson: Is 51%, and it is remarkable
how fragmented the remaining 49% is. You have
about 24% Azureus as I recall and everybody
is in single digits. There are a dozen other
ethnic groups that are in single digits.
Robert Baer: They are sitting on a volcano.
Peter Robinson: So the 51% Persians say to
themselves, we can control these people in
our own borders, why shouldn’t we control
them in a wider Empire too. Is that what you
are saying?
Robert Baer: Oh absolutely,
Peter Robinson: We know how to control this.
Robert Baer: When it comes to the Arabs, they
can, when is the last time the Arabs in the
Gulf fought a war? Never in modern history
because they are not organized to do it?
Peter Robinson: Victor you accept all this?
Victor Davis Hanson: More or less. I think
that the problem with Iran is that it is an
imploding society, it has its minority problems,
it has its rivalries, it has now a Constitutional
System emerging in Iraq, it has this problem
in Lebanon, it is not liked by the Arab countries,
it has the Europeans in this Orwellian situation
where they are on the right side of us now.
Sarcose pushing us. I never thought in my
lifetime I would see an Iranian President
lecture and American President.
Peter Robinson: French President.
Victor Davis Hanson: Excuse me, French President,
but I think what the problem is for us that
we got this regime in there that wants to
tell the Muslim world that the Shi’a and
the Persians who had been the minority and
less distinguished are the real inheritors
of Muslim supremacy and that they are the
people who will deal with the Zionist entity
and that their willingness Rav Sanjani said
years ago to lose a sizable number of their
population, but to us we think this is crazy,
this is surreal. I think it is, I do not think
they are serious but 65 years after the Holocaust,
you cannot expect a small Jewish state, I
have never found the documentation of that
statement that widely quoted one bomb state
is what Iranians are supposedly said about
Israel that it was a one bomb State.
Peter Robinson: Meaning it would take one
bomb to
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah, I do not think
that is quite true myself, a 20 kiloton bomb
would not destroy all of Israel, but nevertheless,
65 years after the Holocaust you cannot expect
the State here to sit there and then just
say to themselves Ahmadinejad, Rav Sanjani,
all these people are just trying to just thump
because the Shi’a and they are Persian and
they want to tell the Arab world they are
the real tough Muslim. That is what the problem
is because in nuclear poker, lunacy is an
advantage. That is what they are trying to
convey and we think it is lunacy but we do
not know.
Peter Robinson: Daniel Pipes “Iran today
is reminiscent of the Soviet Union in the
1970’s. The regime is brutal, and aggressive,
but hollow.” Bob?
Robert Baer: I do not think it is hollow.
I mean it is not hollow in the sense that
it is going to collapse like the Soviet Union.
We should not liken
Peter Robinson: We have Putin, as far as we
can tell because now Russia is free and if
people get in there and conduct public opinion
polls, we view Putin as a very difficult disagreeable
character. But there is no doubt he commands
the support of well over half the population
of Russia. Does the regime in Iran command
the support of a significant portion of the
population?
Victor Davis Hanson: We are not in a pre-revolutionary
state in Iran. There are no signs. I think
we are seeing tuck theory Sunni Fundamentalism
on the edges I think we are seeing a threat
coming in from Pakistan. There are going to
be a lot more bombs going off. But there is
no sign there is going to be revolution or
insurgence by the Azureus would be key for
instance. The state is too powerful, too brutal
and too capable of controlling Iran right
now.
Peter Robinson: I have a question here that
was submitted by Twitter from somebody who
calls himself UK manchild. Strange name but
a good question. Should the United States
have supported the protestors, the dissidents
in the after effects of the current Iranian
revolution? You are suggesting not.
Victor Davis Hanson: Can I answer that?
Peter Robinson: Yes, please. It sounds as
though you are suggesting Obama got it about
right. This was a long time
Victor Davis Hanson: Karube and Musave
Peter Robinson: Give us a sentence on each
of them.
Robert Baer: Were directly involved in blowing
up the Marines in the US Embassy in 1983.
They have blood on their hands; these are
not people that we can in any way trust. They
have made it appear they have transformed
themselves into some sort of green revolution,
but they have not. There is no alternative
in Iran that we can identify that should come
to power to replace coming in Rav Sanjani
that I can identify.
Victor Davis Hanson: Well I think the question
is where all the million people behind Musave.
I think it was more like people who went out
in the streets in 1979 and said they were
for Komanyi, but they were for Bane Sauder
or they were for socialist type European state.
So what I am suggesting is maybe it would
have been counterproductive for George Bush
to do it, but this is part to support the
people in the street in Tehran, it would have
been tarred them with the Bush brush. Fifty-three
percent of the Americans voted for Barack
Obama because he was the promised transcending
candidate that appealed over the heads of
governments and political leaders. So it seemed
to me that he was in a very unique position
of not supporting Musave, but saying to the
Iranian people, we support your legitimate
concerns over Constitutional Government and
do a lot more rather than wait, wait, wait.
He ended up resembling was an old style Jim
Baker realist that was saying, let us see
who wins. Whoever wins, it is Tiananmen Square
again, we do not want to be on the side of
the losers. It did not look good. It sort
of bothered our Sunni allies as well and it
bothered a lot of people in the world and
people like Barack Obama who talk about human
rights and idealism and make fun of the old
ideological blinkers that we had, they should
not be on the wrong side of history. I agree
with Robert, Musave is a thug but the people
who are in the streets, who said that they
were supporting him, were not thugs.
Peter Robinson: So what do we make of the
polls, frankly I Googled around, I could not
find any polls, but I remember this is the
kind of accepted fact, correct it if it is
wrong that among the population, the United
States is much more warmly regarded in Iran
than in any of the Arab neighbors. Is that
right?
Robert Baer: It is, and they are very pro
American. You go to Tehran, I was there three
years ago, it is a very westernized people
and they carry on these conversations, they
are on the internet.
Peter Robinson: So the structure of the problem
runs as follows: We have no problem with the
people, they have just not like the Germans,
kept running up to the Second World War who
actually supported Hitler in significant numbers.
We do not have that kind of problem. We have
the problem with the regime which is some
tens of thousands, with a military which is
a hard core of a hundred thousand and more
and expandable to a couple million. The particular
operative problem is even if you leaned against
it, even if you could find leverage to use
to bring it down, there is nothing to replace
it. Is that a correct formulation?
Robert Baer: I cannot identify and replace
it, but again we are not dealing with Iranian
Nationalism because you can have the average
Iranian be pro-American and still want to
bomb. But if you are Israel do you want any
Iranians to have a bomb? And their answer
would be no.
Peter Robinson: Let me set up segment three
what is to be done? What is to be done by
the United States? Give me
Victor Davis Hanson: We have a big problem
we have not discussed and that is Russia.
Because in Russia’s way of thinking it is
a win/win/win situation to encourage Iran
to get the bomb. And we do not want to confront
that. We have this embarrassing situation
with a quid pro quo of selling out the Poles
and the Czechs for this non-existent help
by Russia. Russia
Peter Robinson: Better back up and explain
that. The Bush Administration said we are
going to put missile defenses in Poland and
the Czech Republic, the Obama Administration
said no we are not.
Victor Davis Hanson: It is not a question
of whether it was wise or not. At this late
point in the game you have Eastern Europe
go out on a limb, you should have supported
them. Russia was never going to help you because
any tension in the Gulf raises oil prices
for both Russia and Iran. If Iran gets the
bomb it is going to be pointed westward or
towards Israel, it is not going to be pointed
towards Russia. The Russians way of thinking
we are going to be the regional king maker
and if you have this rogue nation that is
nuclear and you want it to be contained we
are going to refashion the 1970’s/1960’s
Cold War role that we played in the Middle
East that you have to come to us to deal with
our client. Anything that causes us problems
as we know, whatever they are, Putin is for.
So this idea that we are going to ever cut
a deal, we have to deal with the fact that
Russia wants Iran to be nuclear and will go
at great lengths to make sure it is and it
will do the same thing to Israel and do the
same thing to us that North Korea does to
Japan. It is an irritant and it is good if
you are Putin. This idea that
Peter Robinson: The Russians are the new French.
They will define themselves against us.
Victor Davis Hanson: Much worse. The French
have been very positive in Iran.
Robert Baer: Victor is right. If you were
the Russians, wouldn’t you want it, one
drive up the price for oil?
Peter Robinson: Right.
Robert Baer: If you want to pull the Russian
economy out of this recession it is going
through, drive up the price of oil to $150
per barrel, they benefit from it and they
do not care what happens in the Gulf. They
are not addicted to oil like we are.
Peter Robinson: Two quotations. Former Vice
President Dick Cheney, October, 2007 “we
will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon”.
Retired General John Abase last year “there
are ways to live with a nuclear Iran”. Is
the attainment of a nuclear weapon by Iran
or should it be flatly unacceptable to the
United States? Is that where you begin with
American policy? Whatever else we do, we will
not let them get that.
Robert Baer: The question is what can we do
about it if they make a bomb? What the Iranians
have stated, they will do, and I believe that
they will, is if we attack their nuclear facilities,
they will take out Saudi Arabia’s major
oil facilities with surface to surface missiles.
That is pretty
Peter Robinson: They could do that?
Robert Baer: We are talking about 10 million
barrels instantly would be taken off markets,
world markets. Seventeen million barrels of
traded oil in the Gulf would be taken off
and we would be paying $400 to $500 for a
gallon of gasoline and are we as Americans,
I am talking about American people prepared
to go that far and I would say no.
Peter Robinson: Victor?
Victor Davis Hanson: Most people who say that
we can live with a nuclear Iran point to Pakistan,
but I think there are two problems with that.
Most of our problems in Afghanistan come from
Pakistan.
Peter Robinson: Right.
Victor Davis Hanson: And they otherwise would
not be there in some degree is Pakistan was
not nuclear. And two, there are a billion
person nuclear India that contains Pakistan.
We do not have a billion person nuclear rival
over Iran that can contain it within the region
so it is a bad and a worst choice, but there
are ways I think of preventing them from getting
a series of bombs through blockades, really
strengthen sanctions and we are not willing
to do that because apparently the United States
does not want to get in a situation which
oil prices increase, we offend Russia.
Peter Robinson: There are ways to prevent
them from getting a series of nuclear weapons.
Victor Davis Hanson: I think there are.
Peter Robinson: You think we need to prepare
ourselves to live with at least the kind of
North Korea
Victor Davis Hanson: No I do not.
Peter Robinson: Where they have four or five
or six weapons.
Victor Davis Hanson: No, no. I think
Peter Robinson: There is no way to prevent
them getting any?
Victor Davis Hanson: I think there is a way.
I think if you
Peter Robinson: To prevent them from getting
any at all?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah I think you could
get the Europeans, the Indians, to immediately
stop exporting gas that we find gasoline inside.
You could probably have some kind of blockade
of the Persian Gulf. We are talking about
very serious things that are Acts of War,
but they are not a physical Act of War, but
they would put enough pressure on Iran and
ostracize it.
Peter Robinson: If we blockaded the Gulf,
they would not take out the Saudi oil?
Victor Davis Hanson: I do not know, that would
be their call. We did it with Cuba and Russia
had to make that call. The Cubans, they backed
down. I would be very, if you had a ray of
American ships that blocked it, gasoline going
into Iran or you blocked the importation of
certain military things or export of oil,
it would be their call whether they wanted
to attack American ships.
Peter Robinson: Let me pursue the Abizaid
(00:20:48). There are ways to live with a
nuclear Iran. This is a pretty good question
from, Albert Fuchs by way of Face book. Mutually
assured destruction kept nuclear weapons from
being used during the Cold War, would Iran
be as sensitive to nuclear deterrents as was
the Soviet Union?
Victor Davis Hanson: You know that is a question
I would ask the Israelis because they are
really the key in this. You can be Netanyahu
live with a Defense Minister who really built
Hezbollah and was behind the rocketing of
Israel in 2006 in many ways. Can somebody
like my argument is they are more rationale
than they were in 1983 and 1984. Can they
live with that argument and count on the Iranians
not being suicidal. So I do not think it is
really the answer is in Washington, it is
in Tel Aviv, what they are going to do.
Peter Robinson: So, you just set up segment
four which is Israel. Israeli Defense Minister
Ephraim Snay in an October interview, this
month as we sit here taping this “if no
crippling sanctions are in place by Christmas,
Israel will strike. Israel will strike. If
we are left alone we will act alone”. Is
that somebody getting out ahead of his Prime
Minister? Is that the Israeli’s testing
the Western response. This was in an interview
with the Sunday Times in London. Or is that
a statement of Israeli policy? Have they already
answered the question?
Robert Baer: Snay is a friend of mine.
Peter Robinson: Is he a crazy person or is
this?
Robert Baer: He is not all crazy.
Peter Robinson: This is a man who knows what
he is doing.
Robert Baer: He knows what he is doing, he
knows Iran, he knows politics, he is labor,
he was labor and if he says that Israel will
attack, and he doubted that they would a couple
of years ago, they probably will.
Victor Davis Hanson: I think that when you
have a 2% approval rating of Obama inside
Israel according to some polls, this was sort
of what Israel did during the Bush Administration,
especially after that flawed 2006 estimate
that Iran was not really getting the bomb.
But now, I think when an Israeli high official
says that they are going to do something,
we have to take it serious. So I agree with
Bob. There is another thing to remember,
Peter Robinson: When you say your point about
Obama’s 2% approval rating in Israel, his
Administration has almost no diplomatic leverage
with Israel?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yes.
Peter Robinson: That is the point you are
making?
Victor Davis Hanson: And the second point,
they do not believe that the United States
is going to do anything and they were not
sure about Bush. Second is that I think
Peter Robinson: Do you buy both of those?
You do.
Victor Davis Hanson: I think it is right.
I think also, it is a little worrisome that
there are people in this Administration, I
will give you three examples, Samantha Power
appointment, the failed Charles Freeman nomination,
the pressure on the settlements, Dr. Zazynski
is very Orwellian statement that who was an
advisor to the Obama campaign, remember on
that National Security matters, that we should
shoot down.
Peter Robinson: Brzezinski?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yes, it was Brzezinski
that we should shoot down Israeli planes if
they fly over America occupied.
Peter Robinson: Zbig Brzezinski “in order
to strike Iran they the Israeli’s would
have to fly over our air space in Iraq. Are
we just going to sit there and watch? We have
to be serious about denying them that right.
That means you go up and confront them. No
one wishes for this but it could be a liberty
in reverse.” The liberty he is saying we
should be willing to shoot down
Victor Davis Hanson: I do not know if he is,
he did not speak for the US military, he does
not speak necessarily for the Obama Administration,
but what I am worried about is there is a
large number of people in the Obama Administration
who do not see a constitutional democracy
that is western and is very successful tolerant
diverse society like Israel as exceptional
in the region. It is just another nation no
different, no better no worse than Palestinians,
no different no worse than Syrians and their
way of thinking it is a win/win situation
if Israel takes out the Iranians, then we
say to the Israeli’s oh my gosh, we deplore
this preemptive unilateralism, we are no longer
a strong ally and we win out of it. I am really
worried because I see a Greek tragedy here
where the Israeli’s are going to have no
good points and they might feel that a second
Holocaust, he denied the first one and he
is bragging about the second one.
Peter Robinson: Ahmadinejad (00:25:01)
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah. They might think
this is the only thing we can do is try to
do some response and it will be messy, it
will be long, it will not necessarily be comprehensively
successful and then people in the United States
it will open Israel up to say you see this
an ally that is an albatross around our neck.
This Administration would like to
Peter Robinson: And the Administration wants
distance.
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah, I think they want
to make it; we want to be neutral in a way
that Europe is toward Israel. This is what
this Administration wants.
Peter Robinson: Question – technically,
militarily, what does Israel have the capacity
to do to the Iranian nuclear program?
Robert Baer: Limited. They have some bunker
busters, they could take out some sites underground,
they could set it back for years, they might
have to go back 10 years from now or five
years from now. I could understand, what they
believe is if they can degrade their program
it is going to buy them time; it will convince
the Iranians to back down. They think that
psychologically the Iranians will back down.
I do not have that reading. I think that the
Iranians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Core is a cult. I think that under attack
they will attack in places we cannot even
imagine. In Iraq, in Lebanon.
Peter Robinson: The ordinary western, the
middle class population in Tehran will take
Robert Baer: Will get sacrificed. Too bad.
They have stated, their deterrent doctrine
is to strike back every where they can. So
if Israel and I think it is almost inevitable,
50% chance will attack, we should expect the
worst.
Peter Robinson: And the worst is? Give me
three or four sentences on what happens the
day after Israel attacks. Begins it attacks.
Robert Baer: Dubai gets hit, our supply lines
in Iraq will be hit and they can hit them,
they can get across that border and there
are Iraqi’s that will do their bidding,
we will see a war in Lebanon, we are close
to one now anyhow and you will see this Chaosistan
as McChrystal called it recently come into
being.
Victor Davis Hanson: I think there is also
something that is going on that is very; I
have not seen it in my lifetime is the status
of the Europeans. They were always the good
pal, we were the bad cop. We were always
Peter Robinson: Toward the Arabs?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah, we were going to
take care of business in the world and they
were going to sort of say we should have done
soft power with the understanding that we
were always there. Now we are not there. This
is why you have in the elite, or not with
the people in Europe, they are worried about
Obama and this is why Sarcose keeps lecturing,
he keeps saying the centrifuges are spinning
because if they get a two or three stage rocket,
Sydney is like Frankfurt, and now you are
going to have a very bizarre situation like
you do with North Korea and Japan. So a country
like Germany for example, they could build
nuclear weapons like it does Mercedes and
they would work 4,000 probably in a year.
They are going to sit there within missile
range of a lunatic regime that says things
like we want a trade, we want this. Then the
Europeans are going to be saying to us you
were supposed to under, unspoken accords,
make sure the Western system that emerged
out of the Cold War was stable. And you did
that during the Cold War and now what are
you going to do about this problem? I think
that is going to be a narrative you are going
to hear more and more from the British, the
French, the Italians and the Germans that
they cannot really stand on the sidelines
and say Bush did it or you guys are a bunch
of cowboys because they got somebody for the
first in their memory who is markedly to the
left of them.
Peter Robinson: A winner of the Nobel Peace
Prize.
Victor Davis Hanson: Exactly. And he is a
committed United Nations Internationalist
and has brought appeal to their own publics
in a pacifistic utopian way. These people
who are so, we make fun of the Europeans,
but they are very sober, judicious, real politic
players. They understand.
Peter Robinson: They know their own interest.
Victor Davis Hanson: They know their own interest
and they know they do not want to be held
up by a third rate revolutionary theocracy
on this matter of nuclear weapons. Same thing
with Japan and North Korea. So either somebody
takes care of North Korea or we are going
to have otherwise stable players and we have
to look to our own security and that will
be a nightmare because we are going to have
people going nuclear, we are going to have
people, redefine our relationship with the
United States. Obama does not quite understand
that whether he knew it or not, whether he
gets the Nobel Prize, whether he wants to
praise the United Nations Human Rights, he
had a historic role to protect countries to
act like utopians with the expectations that
they did not have to get their hands dirty
and contain somebody, not that far away from
them.
Peter Robinson: Segment five, let us just,
well let us call this segment the nightmare.
Intel question – it is my understanding
as a layman that all of this business of enriching
uranium with spinning centrifuges, this is
very skilled work. Wherever it is going on
under the bunkers, around Iran, can we assume
that Israel has already done everything it
can to make being a physicist or a nuclear
technician in Iran one of the most dangerous
jobs in the world?
Robert Baer: They cannot solve this by covert
action.
Peter Robinson: They cannot?
Robert Baer: They cannot go kidnap scientists
or assassinate them. The program is too big.
They are getting too much help from Russia,
individual Russians of the very least. There
is this technology is easily for the Iranians
who are very skilled people, they have made
advances in nanotechnology and other fields
that have surprised us.
Peter Robinson: The scientific establishment
there is serious.
Robert Baer: Yes it is very good, these are
smart people. That is isolated attacks like
this is not going to do it. There is no easy
solution to Iran’s nuclear bomb. And we
also have not talked about the arms race in
the Gulf. If you Saudi Arabia that is the
huge divide in the Middle East the Shi’a
Sunni divide. I would want a bomb if they
get one. And what does that lead to?
Peter Robinson: And Mubarak has said he wants
a bomb or at least made noises about it.
Robert Baer: I spent too much time in the
Middle East to trust all these people with
nuclear bombs. I do not say from a prejudice,
but the region is volatile and nuclearized
is fair
Victor Davis Hanson: I think another thing
we do not talk about we talk about the bomb,
but we do not, the bomb is not the problem,
the bomb is an expression of a particular
world view. We sleep tonight with Britain
with a bomb, with France with a bomb and to
be frank with Israel, it is a constitutional
state with the bomb. We do not sleep very
well with China. We sleep much better with
India with a bomb than Pakistan. So it is
the type of government and when you have a
non-constitutional, non-consensual, non-democratic
government, now they can change, but I would
not worry about Japan that much with a bomb.
I worry about China, I worry about North Korea
and the problem in the Middle East is there
is not many people there that you, as Bob
said, you would want to have a bomb.
Peter Robinson: Israel is it.
Robert Baer: Come on the borders are still
drilled in since the Ottoman (00:31:40) times,
still disputed, they are still in this sectarian
violence which we do not begin to understand
and that is what scares me.
Peter Robinson: And that goes on all the time.
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah
Robert Baer: Yeah and we are going to be collateral
damage.
Victor Davis Hanson: Even enriched uranium
so they are enriching U235 and maybe it is
not the greatest weapons grade, maybe they
are sneaking out to Russia under some phony
program where Russia is going to use it and
enrich it in a different way, but it really
is helping them get a purity that they need
for two or three bombs.
Peter Robinson: You think it may be going
back and forth?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yeah I do, I really do.
I think we fell for that trap by saying that
we will let the Russians monitor it to make
sure it is for peaceful purposes when it may
be a way of getting not quite a good enough
enriched uranium but even better. But all
that being, you can make a dirty bomb, you
can get the enriched uranium, you can pack
it into a suicide bomber, he can walk into
Tel Aviv government office or even go into
Lebanon, you can go to the United States,
and go into the stock market, and it is not
going to do a lot of damage but psychologically,
it is going to say this is contaminated, this
is radioactive.
Peter Robinson: Let us close out the program
with the few minutes remaining by placing
ourselves in two situation rooms. First we
are in Israel and we are advising the Prime
Minister and your friend the Defense Minister.
They have listened to everything that has
been said so far and I will sum up as follows:
On the one hand if Iran gets a nuclear weapon,
it is an existential threat to the State of
Israel. We have said since Ben Gurion that
we will not permit that to happen. On the
other hand all we can do is buy ourselves
time and buy ourselves time for what? The
Administration of the United States would
use an attack by us on Iran to put distance
between us, the United States and Israel.
Iranian public opinion to the extent that
it matters at all would swing hard against
us. Every one of our neighboring regimes whatever
they said in private would feel required to
denounce us in public. The Europeans would
scarcely come to our aid and would not be
able to extend us any meaningful aid even
if they did, buy us time for what? What do
you advice Benjamin Netanyahu to do?
Victor Davis Hanson: If I am an Israeli and
I look at Iran’s record, used to be the
Palestinians and Lebanon and the leadership
that has come to power on 12, June, if I am
an Israeli, not as an American, I would say
we somehow have to knock Iran down a notch.
The Americans are not going to do it, we are
going to have to do it and I think that is
the
Peter Robinson: Not necessarily attacking
the nuclear program?
Robert Baer: Just in general. I mean
Peter Robinson: For morale?
Victor Davis Hanson: We are forgetting that
the Palestinian authority now is under attack
by Hamas which is the
Peter Robinson: A client of Iraq.
Victor Davis Hanson: Which is a client of
Iran and Hezbollah is a client of Iran and
they are getting stronger by the day and I
think you can make that argument very well.
We have to do something now or we are going
to be surrounded, what if Egypt falls next
in the succession with some pro-Iranian military
faction comes in. The numbers are against
Israel so they are looking at it differently.
Peter Robinson: Bob Baer advises the Prime
Minister of Israel you must act.
Robert Baer: Well he is going to have to
Peter Robinson: Do you agree?
Robert Baer: I agree with the question that
$64,000 question is at what point will the
point of no return come. But I think what
they are going to have to
Peter Robinson: You mean in the development
of the nuclear
Robert Baer: Yeah.
Peter Robinson: We are not there yet?
Robert Baer: Not quite. We are going to have
to
Peter Robinson: Six months?
Robert Baer: Six months, a year. But what
they have to do is and that is why you are
seeing Netanyahu go to weird places like Russia
and Europe. They are going to have to assume
that the United States is not the situation
where it was in the past as a strong protective
of paternal ally and they are going to have
to cut a deal, they are going to have to say
to the Russians, we are going to have to do
this, what are you going to do about it, they
are going to have to go outreach to the Saudi’s
to the Egyptians, they are going to have to
talk to the Europeans, the French and Germans
and they are not going to get a coalition,
but they are going to have to have a framework
of all of these parties and say to them this
is going to happen and what are you going
to do about it. Not that they are going and
I think they are going to find a very ambiguous
response. It is not going to say do not do
that, they are going to hear something liked
well we are not going to move on you, we are
not going to oppose you, but we are going
to criticize you in the media.
Peter Robinson: Last question. Now we are
in the situation room in the West Wing of
the White House. Everybody including President
Obama has heard everything we have said in
this program. Sum it up, the Israeli’s will
with a better than 50% probability strike.
What do you advice President Obama to do about
that?
Victor Davis Hanson: About the Israeli strike?
Peter Robinson: Well, what should he do about
Iran and what should he do about the Israeli
strike? Time, we need to keep
Victor Davis Hanson: I would have a graduated
response. First of all I would say
Peter Robinson: To Iran?
Victor Davis Hanson: Yes. He said in July
that by the time of the G20 Summit you are
going to face consequences, than the G20 Summit
and said you are going to face consequences
on October 1st when the direct talks. Then
the direct talks went then he said this is
the third time he said it, it does not do
any good. He is going to have to say to his
team, we are going to tell them we are going
to stop the gasoline import into Iran. Then
we are going to say we are going to have a
blockade or tough sanctions then blockade,
but they have to have deadlines and they are
not going to be deadlines like healthcare
is going to be passed by the August recess
or get out of Iraq by March.
Peter Robinson: The time for talking has passed.
The United States must act.
Victor Davis Hanson: So they have to establish
and I am not an expert, but they have to find
out what this graduated response is. Sanctions,
blockades, stopping export and the final redline
is up here at about a year and that is to
do something, then they are going to have
to discuss it and the problem is that we have
a President who likes to be liked, he is charismatic,
he has never been in a situation where when
he is confronted with a very bad choice, and
a worse choice and whatever choice he makes
people like us are going to criticize him
perhaps. He is not going to be like and whenever
that situation
Peter Robinson: Approval rating will drop.
Victor Davis Hanson: Exactly. And every time
he has been in that situation we are seeing
it now in Afghanistan, he votes present. That
is what worries me.
Peter Robinson: And with regard to Israel?
Briefly what should President Obama do?
Victor Davis Hanson: Well Obama should do
is he should in diplomatic channels help Israel
appeal to the self interest of people in the
region, the Russians, the Europeans and say
you know what we do not like what they are
doing if they are going to do it. If we did
what I just outline earlier, Israel would
not have to do it. After all this one last
statement.
Peter Robinson: Sure
Victor Davis Hanson: This is 65 years after
the Holocaust. My God, we are talking about
6 million people were executed while the world
watched and now we have a person who is promising
to do that again, and we are not doing, nobody
is talking about it. This is just insane.
Anybody who reads something like Martin Gilbert
The Second World War all he writes about is
how the world did not do anything while the
bear mark went in and they just killed 6 million
people. We have a guy who is saying this did
not happen, he would like it to happen again
if it did happen and we, this is insane, it
is absolutely insane.
Peter Robinson: Bob? What should President
Obama do about Iran? Same two questions to
you.
Robert Baer: I think he should open a back
channel right now to the real power, who is
Komanyi and his son and about five generals
and sit down at the table and we talk about
Jim Baker, pragmatist, sit down and see if
there is any chance of a grand bargain.
Peter Robinson: You send Holbrook over? You
send a serious deal maker?
Robert Baer: Jim Baker.
Peter Robinson: You send Jim Baker.
Robert Baer: Jim Baker
Victor Davis Hanson: What do you give up though
for them to quit?
Robert Baer: That would be the question. What
would they want I mean would it be Resolution
242, would it be something on Lebanon, would
it be something on Iraq. We have
Peter Robinson: You said that their interest,
at one level their interest is stability in
their own region. They see themselves surrounded
by lunatics and they want stability.
Robert Baer: And we could
Peter Robinson: We could cut that deal right?
Robert Baer: WE could cut that deal; we could
just turn over Afghanistan to the Taliban.
Who is going to suffer first is not us it
is going to be the Iranians. We do have and
it is not the embargo they need, they need
oil equipment, they need all sorts of things.
They have a population of 71 million, 30%
unemployment; they need a lot of things. We
can carry in this Cold War, we can strike
their nuclear facilities, hope nothing goes
on, but we really need to go in there and
open up an American President has to take
the risk of doing that and failing because
I think at the end of the day an embargo and
sanctions could bring Iran down, but it could
also create chaos or something that will look
like World War III.
Peter Robinson: And how do you advice President
Obama to behave toward Israel?
Robert Baer: We have to reassure the Israeli’s.
We are attached at the hip with the Israeli’s,
we simply cannot tell them hey look, let us
let things go on as they are and let us hope
for the best. That is not going to work with
the Israeli’s. We cannot stop their bombing
of Iran. What is a commander going to do in
Iraq, say I have seen 20 F16’s coming this
way, what should I do? We have four minutes
before they are crossing the border. You cannot
stop them. So, we need to get in the position
that the Israeli’s are not thinking they
are going to be destroyed.
Peter Robinson: Last question. You get about
six words a piece on this. Probability that
the Israeli’s do strike within the end of
the first quarter, by March of next year.
Robert Baer: Forty-nine percent.
Peter Robinson: Victor?
Victor Davis Hanson: I would say 50/50.
Peter Robinson: A fearless note on which to
end, but one worth pondering. Victor Davis
Hanson, Bob Baer, the author of The Devil
We Know, thank you very much.
Robert Baer: Thank you.
Victor Hanson Davis: Thank you
Peter Robinson: I am Peter Robinson for Uncommon
Knowledge and the Hoover Institution, thanks
for joining us.
VDH and Baer_Oct 20 2009
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