LIZ: ALL RIGHT.
LIZ: ALL RIGHT.
SO WALK-DOWNS ARE VERY MUCH A
PART OF TODAY’S NEWS.
ARE THEY GOING TO BE REIMPOSED.
DURING THE FIRST ROUND OF
STATE-IMPOSED LOCKDOWNS, NO CAR
COMPANY LAUNCHED A MORE PUBLIC
FIGHT TO REOPEN THAN TESLA.
NOW, WHILE AS YOU CAN SEE THE
STOCK HAS NOW RECOVERED AND IS
UP ABOUT 75% SINCE THE FIRST
CONFIRMED U.S. COVID CASE BACK
IN JANUARY, CEO ELON MUSK WAS SO
FRUSTRATED THAT HE THREATENED TO
MOVE HIS ELECTRIC VEHICLE PLANT
OUT OF CALIFORNIA, BECAUSE
CALIFORNIA WAS DRAGGING ITS FEET
ON LETTING HIM REOPEN.
WELL, WE NOW HAVE VISUALS OF THE
DRAMATIC PRODUCTION FREEZE THAT
TESLA ENDURED.
RS METRICS IS A COMPANY THAT
TAKES SATELLITE AND DRONE
IMAGERY TO HELP INSTITUTIONAL
INVESTORS SEE HOW BUSY A
COMPANY’S OPERATIONS ARE.
WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT ON THE
LEFT IS JANUARY 14th, THIS IS
THE EMPLOYEE PARKING LOT AT
TESLA’S FREMONT PLANT.
SEE ALL THE RED?
THOSE ARE EMPLOYEES CARS.
NEARLY 3700 CARS CAPTURED
PRE-OUTBREAK.
IN MARCH, THAT’S THE MIDDLE ONE,
IT DROPS TO 799 CARS.
BUT BY APRIL, THAT’S THE FAR
RIGHT ONE, DOWN TO JUST 480
CARS.
BUT IMAGES OF TESLA’S FINISHED
CAR LOT, WHERE THEY PUT ALL THE
NEW CARS, ARE EVEN MORE
STUNNING.
MID-JANUARY, A BOOMING, THIS IS
ON THE LEFT, A BOOMING 779 NEW
CARS WERE READY TO GO.
THAT NUMBER FELL TO, BY MARCH,
ABOUT 250 CARS AND BY APRIL, A
STUNNING PLUMMET TO JUST 159 NEW
TESLAS IN THAT LOT.
TOM DIAMOND IS PRESIDENT OF RS
METRICS, THE COMPANY BEHIND
THOSE IMAGES, AND BEHIND SOME
NEW ALARMING ONES FROM WUHAN,
WHICH APPEAR TO SHOW THE VIRUS
OUTBREAK STARTED KIND OF WELL
BEFORE CHINA SAID IT DID.
TOM, LET’S START WITH THE WUHAN
IMAGES.
WE WILL GET TO TESLA IN A
SECOND.
WHAT HAVE YOUR IMAGES TURNED UP
AND WHAT ARE YOU DEDUCING FROM
THOSE IMAGES NOW?
>> WELL, WE MEASURE HOSPITAL
TRAFFIC FOR ALMOST TEN YEARS.
A LOT OF IT IS FOR HEDGE FUNDS
LOOKING AT TENET IN THE U.S. TO
FORECAST PRICE, WE ALSO DO
HOSPITAL TRAFFIC FOR
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND VIROLOGY AND
STUDIES IN LATIN AMERICA,
ARGENTINA, CHILE, TO SEE
HOSPITAL TRENDS RISE RIGHT
BEFORE OUTBREAKS.
IN WUHAN WE SAW SOMETHING
SIMILAR USING THE SAME GLOBAL
METHODOLOGY THAT WE USE.
WE LOOK AT HOSPITALS ALL OVER
THE WORLD AND HAVE FOR A LONG
LONG TIME.
IN WUHAN, IT WASN’T A SURPRISE,
JUST BEFORE, YOU KNOW, THE
PUBLIC REALLY KNEW OR RELEASED
THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS, HOSPITALS
WERE ALREADY FILLING UP AND WE
SEE THAT EVERYWHERE.
IF YOU LOOK, ONE OF THE IMAGES I
THINK YOU ARE SHOWING IS OCTOBER
2018, YOU KNOW, THE HOSPITALS,
AND YOU CAN FLIP TO THE NEXT
ONE, YOU CAN SEE AN INCREASE IN
CARS THERE.
LIZ: HOLD ON.
HOLD ON.
HOLD ON.
THAT’S 2018.
SO YOU CAN SEE IT’S KIND OF
SPARSE.
NOW PLEASE LET’S FLIP TO 2019 OF
THE EXACT SAME LOT AND THIS IS
WUHAN HOSPITAL, AND IT’S
STARTING TO FILL UP.
THIS IS OCTOBER.
>> YEAH.
AND YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK AT A
TIME SERIES CHART OF THAT
HOSPITAL AND OTHERS THERE, THE
SIX TOTAL WE LOOKED AT, THEY
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN.
IT’S SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN FOR
A LOT OF THE OTHER LOCATIONS WE
HAVE SEEN BEFORE.
SO AGAIN, IT WASN’T TOO
SURPRISING TO US, BUT YOU KNOW,
TO OTHERS THAT, YOU KNOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE IT DID START A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PEOPLE THOUGHT.
AND YOU KNOW, NOW THAT --
LIZ: LET ME JUST INTERRUPT YOU
HERE.
LET ME JUST SAY THAT CHINA HAD
INDICATED THAT IT BEGAN IN
DECEMBER, BUT YOU’VE GOT ANOTHER
HOSPITAL HERE, THE HOSPITAL AT
WUHAN UNIVERSITY, THAT’S SHOWING
THE SAME THING, 2018 AND THEN WE
CAN FLIP OVER TO THE HOSPITAL
FROM 2019 AND IT’S STARTING TO
FIP
FILL UP.
AGAIN, THIS IS OCTOBER.
SO THEY KIND OF MUST HAVE SEEN
SOMETHING, RIGHT?
>> YES.
AND JUST TO BE FAIR TO
EVERYBODY, EVEN IN THE U.S.,
WHERE THERE’S A LOT OF DATA,
SHARING OF INFORMATION, THERE
STILL IS A DELAY BEFORE HOSPITAL
TRAFFIC FILLS UP AND PEOPLE
REALIZE THERE’S SOME KIND OF
HEALTH ISSUE.
DOESN’T HAVE TO BE A VIRUS.
IT CAN BE ANYTHING.
THE REASON IS, YOU KNOW, THE
NUMBER OF CASES AT A HOSPITAL IS
DIFFERENT THAN THE NUMBER OF
CARS IN THE PARKING LOT.
CARS IN THE PARKING LOT IS
ACTIVITY.
THERE’S DOCTORS, NURSES,
EMERGENCY VEHICLES, PATIENTS,
AND THAT IS REALLY THE SIGNAL
AHEAD OF THESE OUTBREAKS.
LIZ: ALL RIGHT.
YOU ARE ALSO TRACKING SOME
MEDICAL CENTERS IN ARIZONA.
TELL US WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE
HERE WHEN IT COMES TO THE
ARIZONA HOSPITAL.
>> I THINK THE TWO EXAMPLES YOU
HAVE THERE ARE VALLEYWISE AND
BANNER THUNDERBIRD.
THEY ARE TWO BIGGER HOSPITALS IN
MARICOPA COUNTY WHICH HAS MOST
OF THE COVID CASES NOW.
IT’S ANOTHER EXAMPLE, EXACT SAME
METHODOLOGY, WE JUST TRACK THE
NUMBER OF VEHICLES AT THESE
HOSPITALS.
THE INCREASES YOU ARE SEEING
THERE, IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE
IMAGES WE ARE SHOWING HERE ARE
ALL FROM THIS YEAR.
IN ARIZONA, THE MOST RECENT
OUTBREAK REALLY HAPPENED AT THE
END OF MAY AND EARLY JUNE, AND I
THINK -- I DON’T SEE RIGHT NOW
BUT ONE OF THE IMAGES IS FROM
APRIL OF THIS YEAR AND THE OTHER
IS FROM JUNE THIS YEAR.
YOU CAN SEE IT’S ABOUT A 20%
INCREASE IN CARS.
LIZ: THIS IS JUNE.
>> YES.
LIZ: YEAH.
YEAH.
I SEE THAT.
>> YEAH.
THE OTHER ONE, BANNER
THUNDERBIRD, VERY SIMILAR.
WE SEE THE SAME THING AT THE
OTHER AREA HOSPITALS THERE.
ALSO IN WASHINGTON STATE, WE
HAVE DATA ON THE VA PUGET SOUND
HOSPITAL WHICH IS ALSO SHOWING
AN INCREASE, KIND OF BEFORE
EVERYBODY KNEW THINGS WERE
HAPPENING IN WASHINGTON.
IT’S JUST THE POINT IS AT ONE
HOSPITAL, THIS IS MAYBE NOT SUCH
A SIGNAL BUT WHEN YOU START TO
SEE 20 HOSPITALS AROUND YOU ALL
SHOWING 15%, 20%, 30% GROWTH,
THAT IS AN OBVIOUS TREND.
LIZ: YEAH.
I WANT TO JUST GET TO TESLA
BEFORE WE GO.
THE TESLA NEW CARS, THAT LOT,
THOSE PICTURES WERE REALLY
STUNNING TO ME BECAUSE YOU START
TO SEE AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE
EMPTYING OUT BECAUSE THEY HAD
TRANSPORTED OUT THE NEW ONES AND
THERE WERE NO ASSEMBLY LINES
WORKING, SO WE CAN SHOW YOU
THOSE AND THEY BEGIN AS I HAVE
MY PAPERS HERE, WE START TO SEE
THE ACTUAL PRODUCTION IN JANUARY
WHERE IT WAS PRETTY JAM-PACKED
ON THE FAR LEFT.
THERE IT IS.
LOOK AT ALL THOSE YELLOW DOTS.
THOSE ARE BRAND NEW CARS.
THEN IT REALLY GOES DOWN FROM
779 NEW ONES TO 159.
WE HAD A DRONE THAT WENT OVER A
LOT IN TESLA -- LOT AT TESLA’S
IN THIS UNMARKED AREA IN LONG
ISLAND.
WHAT DO YOU GLEAN FROM A PARKING
LOT?
>> WELL, OUR METRICS IS
MEASURING TESLA’S FREMONT PLANT
SINCE 2014 OR ’15 WHEN IT FIRST
RAMPED UP AND TOOK OVER FROM
TOYOTA.
IN THE EARLY DAYS, THE QUESTION
ABOUT TESLA WAS NUMBER ONE, IS
THERE DEMAND AND NUMBER TWO, CAN
THEY MEET THE DEMAND WITH
PRODUCTION AND DELIVERIES.
THAT IS WHY WE DID A LOT OF WORK
AROUND TESLA FOR HEDGE FUNDS AND
OTHERS.
THAT SLOWED DOWN FOR US BECAUSE
LAST YEAR, TESLA STARTED DOING
BETTER WITH THEIR PRODUCTION,
THEY BEAT ESTIMATES FOURTH
QUARTER LAST YEAR, BUT COVID HAS
STARTED ALL UP AGAIN, AND NOW
THE ISSUE IS CAN THEY MEET THEIR
PRODUCTION TARGETS AGAIN AND
DELIVERIES.
YOU KNOW, A PARKING LOT, THE
IMAGES YOU SEE THERE, ALL THE
YELLOW CARS ARE MIXED TOGETHER
BUT WE ACTUALLY DIFFERENTIATE
THE MODEL S, X, 3, Y AND SHOW
THOSE INDIVIDUALLY AS WELL, AND
YOU CAN SEE --
LIZ: YOU CAN SEEN DO THAT.
>> YEAH.
WHAT YOU SEE IS -- ALL THE, YOU
KNOW, THE DATA THAT RS METRICS
PROVIDES, IT PROVIDES A SIGNAL.
YOU CAN USE IT TO TRY TO
FORECAST AN EXACT NUMBER BUT
IT’S MORE ABOUT A SIGNAL ABOUT
WHERE IT’S HEADED, SO YOU KNOW,
FOR A LONG TIME, THIS HAS BEEN A
BIG PIECE OF HOW PEOPLE LOOK AT
TESLA WHEN THEY ARE INVESTING.
YOU CAN JUST IMAGINE, YOU CAN
IMAGINE ELON MUSK SEEING HIS
FACTORY DROP DOWN LIKE THIS
AFTER WORKING SO HARD AND THAT
EXPLAINS SOME OF THE
FRUSTRATION.
LIZ: YEAH.
YEAH.
BUT QUITE A TOOL THAT RS METRICS
OFFERS FOR CERTAINLY
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND
