WILLIAM BRANGHAM: As we mentioned earlier,
Iran declared that it is now surpassed the
low-enriched uranium limit that it agreed
to in the 2015 nuclear deal.
The White House responded by saying that it
would continue its maximum pressure campaign
on the regime until Tehran changes course.
This comes amid increasing tension with Iran,
after the Iranians shot down an American drone
two weeks ago and President Trump nearly launched
a retaliatory strike.
For more on what today's announcement means
for Iran, I'm joined by Karim Sadjadpour.
He's a senior fellow in the Middle East program
at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.
Welcome back.
KARIM SADJADPOUR, Carnegie Endowment For International
Peace: Great to be with you.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Help us explain the significance
of Iran blowing past this low-enriched uranium
threshold.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: So, I think just as the
United States builds leverage against Iran
with economic sanctions, Iran builds leverage
against the United States by either restarting,
reconstituting its nuclear activities or escalating
in the region.
And so I think it was predicted and predictable
that Iran would eventually start to increase
its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium.
It will start to reduce its cooperation with
international weapons inspectors.
I don't think this should be confused that
Iran is making a mad dash towards a nuclear
weapon.
This is a very calibrated escalation.
And, essentially, what Iran is trying to do
is to create international divisions, rather
than international unity.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: As you mentioned, this is
something of a two-pronged strategy, to both
sort of test the limits of the deal and how
far they can get away with that, but then,
also, if you believe U.S. intelligence, to
disrupt the flow of oil, as we saw the damage
to those tankers coming out of the Persian
Gulf.
Is your sense that these -- that this approach
is going to work for the Iranians?
Are they going to get their goal?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I think the Iranians are
probably going -- are trying to test President
Trump's resolve.
I mean, we have seen, in other contexts, for
example, Venezuela, President Trump, after
a while, started to question the wisdom of
some of his hard-line advisers, like John
Bolton.
And I think the Iranians feel that if they
continue to resist and they continue to show
the world that there are going to be costs
for America's pressure campaign against Iran,
that, at some point, Trump may start to question
the wisdom of his approach.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And the Iranians said, we
have to do this because the U.S. pulls out
of the deal and imposes these sanctions, and
that's really biting on the Iranian economy,
and we want the Europeans to step up and fill
the gap.
Do you think the Europeans are going to try
to fill that and help Iran out?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: It's very difficult for
Europeans, because, essentially, U.S. sanctions
force companies and countries around the world
to make a very simple choice: Do you want
to do business with America or do you want
to do business with Iran?
So even though the Europeans are sympathetic
to Iran, they believe that it is the Trump
administration which violated the nuclear
deal and is provoking Iran to escalate, for
major European companies, you know, their
business in Iran is minuscule compared to
their business in the United States.
And so I think the Europeans really have limited
ability to save the Iranian economy from its
downward spiral.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So how do you imagine -- you
touched on how the president might be getting
cold feet about further escalation, but play
it out.
How do you imagine that the U.S. will respond?
We heard the president say the Iranians are
playing with fire.
What do you imagine happens next?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: I think we're in a dangerous
situation, because President Trump has simultaneously
provoked escalatory cycle with Iran, while
also making it clear to the world that he
doesn't want conflict, that, you know, conflict
is not good for his reelection campaign in
the United States.
And so it could lead to an Iranian miscalculation,
Iran believing that they need to react to
U.S. pressure, they need to counterescalate,
and they may be able to get in a few free
punches because the United States doesn't
want war.
And so I think we're in a dangerous dynamic.
And it's really driven not by the difference
-- differing interests of two nation states,
America and Iran, but two very different leaders,
73-year-old Donald Trump and 80-year-old Iranian
supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: How does this play in Iranian
domestic politics?
What are they -- what constituency there are
they trying to satisfy?
What are the demands there?
KARIM SADJADPOUR: It's an important question.
And one of the things we haven't seen reported
much is the state of the Iranian economy and
popular frustration in Iran.
In fact, the Iranian government has been prohibiting
reporting from Iran, because I think there's
growing frustration.
There's tremendous economic discontent.
This is a country which has one of the world's
highest resources of oil.
They went from exporting 2.5 million barrels
per day of oil.
They're now down to 300,000, 400,000 barrels
per day.
So, I think, with the passage of time, especially
-- it's a hot summer now in Iran -- there's
going to be growing pressure on the regime
to simply do a deal, or at least negotiate
with the United States, especially when President
Trump is making it very clear he wants to
negotiate with Iran.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So, in that sense, the president's
strategy thus far may pay the dividends that
the president wants.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Well, that's assuming it
doesn't ensnare the United States into some
type of a conflict situation, which very few
people in the United States and very few people
in Iran want.
And so I think it's going to take tremendous
discipline.
And it's also going to require the United
States to send a clear signal to Iran about,
what is America's endgame?
Because, currently, you have a president,
Trump, who has consistently told the Iranians
he just wants a deal, he wants negotiations.
But you have a national security in John Bolton
who sent the opposite signal, who has advocated
for military streaks and regime change in
Iran.
And so the Iranian regime needs to be clear
about, you know, what is America's endgame?
You really have -- you know, you have a U.S.
president with no clear strategy, an Iranian
supreme leader with only one clear strategy,
which is resistance against America.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Karim Sadjadpour, as always,
thank you very much.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Thank you, William.
