The date is July, 2019, and rumors of a military
buildup of Chinese forces across the strait
from Taiwan begin to leak to the international
press.
As the fourth of July is celebrated here at
home, thousands of miles away Taiwan begins
to move their command and control functions
into hardened, nuclear-proof underground facilities.
F-16s and other strike aircraft are moved
into mountain bases, and dummy missile batteries
and anti-aircraft platforms are set up around
the island of Taiwan.
August rolls around and by now it's clear
to the world that China is indeed massing
what looks like an invasion force on its side
of the Taiwan strait, though the Chinese leader,
Xi Jinping, reassures the world that he is
only interested in a peaceful reunification
of Taiwan and the mainland.
The American military is put at DEFCON 3,
which signals the Air Force to be ready to
mobilize for a potential nuclear conflict
in just fifteen minutes.
As September comes, the Chinese military has
begun commandeering civilian ships in order
to help move its 1 million man strong invasion
force across the channel- the Chinese military
lacks the amphibious capability to move more
than a few thousand troops at a time, but
in order to face 100,000 Taiwanese defenders
and their 2 million reservists, the People's
Liberation Army will need every available
ship it can get its hands on, no matter how
big or small.
Across the strait Taiwan has begun littering
the only thirteen beaches that an invasion
force could be landed on with mines, razor
wire, and other horrific surprises.
The US Pacific Fleet is fully mobilized by
now, and the United States is at DEFCON 2.
All military leave is canceled and Marines
board transports as they head for bases in
Australia, Japan, and Guam.
PACCOM's carrier groups disperse a thousand
miles off shore from Taiwan, careful to make
sure that they do not stray too deep into
the net of ballistic missile coverage that
China uses to threaten American naval vessels.
There is no hiding China's intentions now,
an invasion of Taiwan is coming and the entire
world knows it.
Taiwanese troops, supplemented by a few thousand
rapid response American forces, dig in for
what will be the largest amphibious assault
in history.
The date is October 3rd, 2019.
The seas between Taiwan and China are finally
calm again, presenting a narrow 4-week opportunity
for an amphibious assault that only reoccurs
briefly one other time of the year, in May.
Chinese troops are rushed to waiting transports,
the lucky ones board military amphibious landing
craft, while the unlucky ones must make the
treacherous crossing on civilian boats with
little if any protection.
Overhead, hundreds of missiles fly out over
the strait, slamming into radar, communications,
and control nodes all over the island.
Air fields are cratered, civilian power plants
are destroyed.
Chinese jets scream overhead en route to strike
at Taiwanese tanks and artillery pieces, shortly
after followed by Chinese bombers.
Yet the Taiwanese Air Force has long been
redeployed to underground facilities, and
American-made F-16s flown by Taiwanese pilots
rise up to meet the incoming Chinese planes.
A thousand miles away, US carrier battle groups
are given the green light to advance to forward
positions just off the Taiwan coast.
Bringing a significant portion of America's
naval air power, they alone are more than
a match for the Chinese air force- yet as
they steam ahead a rain of ballistic missiles
falls upon the battle groups.
Anti-missile defense systems intercept many,
yet others manage to slip through and deal
devastating blows against American supercarriers.
In moments thousands of American sailors are
dead, and in the first five minutes of the
war more American servicemen have died than
in all conflicts combined since Vietnam.
By the end of the first month of fighting
American casualties will reach Vietnam-war
levels, with Chinese and Taiwanese casualties
many times that number.
By the end of 2019 the war will officially
be the bloodiest conflict since World War
II.
But could such a war really happen, and if
it did, could you actually be drafted to fight
in it?
The sad answer is yes, and in fact American
military planners consider the Taiwan-China
situation to be one of several flashpoints
that would lead directly to a third world
war.
China for its part has long claimed that it
seeks only a peaceful reunification with the
island nation, yet just in 2016 Xi Jinping
stated that, “We have the determination,
the ability, and the preparedness to deal
with Taiwanese independence, and if we do
not deal with it, we will be overthrown.”
China views Taiwan's continued independence
as more than the historical thorn in its side,
but now rather as a direct threat to the mainland's
continued Communist leadership.
This is because the island nation has only
grown more prosperous and economically powerful
over the decades, becoming the 19th largest
economy in the world.
Taiwan also directly employs many mainland
Chinese citizens, either on the island itself
or in off-site factories and offices run by
Taiwanese businesses.
The same cannot be said in large numbers of
China's influence on Taiwan.
Yet even more dangerous than Taiwan's prosperity
is what Xi Jingpin and Chinese leadership
fear the most- its liberal democracy.
Taiwan's liberal democratic values completely
undermine China's own hardline nationalistic
values.
While China enforces strict censorship, Taiwan
espouses the same liberal values that America
does- and mainland Chinese have begun to take
notice.
Pro-democracy demonstrations continue to grow
within China, and as Chinese citizens spend
more time abroad both in Taiwan and in Europe
and America, they are starting to bring democratic
values back home with them.
For China, Taiwan's continued independence
is a deathly threat that must one day be eliminated,
and increasingly it looks like plans to eliminate
Taiwan's independence are to do so by force.
Yet if China were to launch a war against
Taiwan, currently one of the likeliest conflicts
that the US actively prepares for, then America
would be treaty bound to defend the island
democracy.
This would pit the two largest economies and
military powers in the world against each
other, and while the US would inevitably come
out slightly ahead of China, casualties on
both sides would be staggering.
To this end, America would immediately need
to boost its active military forces.
The first step in bolstering American forces
would be an immediate call up of all reservists.
With 860,000 reservists, any draft notices
would likely not come for a while- yet depending
on the scale of the war and America's objectives,
a draft may be ultimately inevitable.
Currently America has two objectives to achieve
in any conflict with China, the first being
the complete destruction of its air and naval
forces, and the second being the toppling
of its Communist government.
The total destruction of all Chinese naval
and air forces are a non-negotiable objective,
meaning that no matter how the war went, unless
it somehow went extremely poorly for the US,
there would be no negotiations for a cease-fire
until this objective was met.
The US would direct all of its efforts and
resources at ensuring that no Chinese naval
or air forces survive the conflict, and the
reasoning is quite simple- China cannot hope
to fight a second war if its navy and air
force is destroyed, and a lengthy rearmament
period would take a decade or more, giving
ample opportunity for US and allies to rearm
themselves.
The removal of China's communist government
is an ancillary objective which would be carried
out via precision strikes, covert operations,
and psychological operations aimed at the
Chinese citizenry.
Given that a purely military removal of China's
government would require a full-scale land
invasion, the US is happy to wage a war and
not meet this objective, or leave it in the
hands of a civilian population riled up by
aggressive psychological operations.
In the first scenario it's unlikely that a
draft would be instigated by the US government,
given the US's advantages in naval and air
forces both.
Though both the American navy and air force
would suffer significant losses in the effort,
China would indubitably face the complete
annihilation of its own navy and air force
to the Americans and their allies.
In this case, reservists would likely be enough
to bring American combat strength back to
manageable levels, and a draft would be highly
unlikely.
Yet if the scope of the conflict expanded
for any reason, and a direct removal of China's
communist government was the only road to
peace, an American draft would be a necessity.
With over two million active duty forces in
the Chinese military, the US and its allies
would need to bolster their own numbers significantly
to even attempt an invasion of China.
All male American citizens and immigrant non-citizens
between the age of 18 and 25 are required
by law to register in the selective service
system.
In 2010 the SSS had over 16 million young
American men on file, yet the US has a total
fit-for-service manpower pool of over 111
million.
With an increasingly bloody conflict against
China, the SSS would without a doubt be activated,
and full-rate conscription would begin for
the first time since Vietnam.
War with China is not likely, and yet it is
considered the most realistic and probable
flashpoint for the world's next major war.
While the world has not seen major powers
go to war since the end of World War II, and
it will hopefully not see them do so ever
again, the reality is that several of any
possible diplomatic missteps in the South
China Sea and the Taiwan Strait could lead
straight to an unavoidable conflict between
the US and China.
And with the life of the Chinese communist
party likely dependent on forcing Taiwan back
into the fold and crushing the island's democratic
government, the US may be headed straight
for another military draft sooner than any
of us could have hoped for.
Would you willingly volunteer for the draft,
or would you try to dodge it?
Why or why not?
Let us know in the comments!
Also, be sure to check out our other video
Sinking Of The Unsinkable German WW2 Battleship
Bismarck.
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See you next time.
