On September first 1939, A million and a half
men strong German force started its invasion
of Poland.
Weeks later, the Soviet union joined in from
the other side.
Even though the Polish army achieved the size
of a million troops strong as the war went
on, it eventually caved in.
This video asks - could a much smaller, but
much, MUCH better equipped army from the future
change history?
Could modern day Polish military fight off
the Germans?
Let’s go back to our time travellin’ Poles.
In the real timeline, the german attack was
swift as their advantage in firepower, technology
and training was considerable.
The Manpower difference was also always there,
as Poland started proper mobilization very
late.
On september 1st, when the Germans already
started the battle - Poland had half a million
reservists mobilized.
Even worse, just a quarter of a million were
actually equipped and on their positions.
Germany attacked from two main directions.
Group Army North had a bit fewer troops than
Group army south, but altogether they still
had a million and a half equipped and ready
troops.
Of which over a million crossed into Poland.
Poland did, over the coming days, mobilize
another half a million men, but never managed
to organize them properly in time.
It never managed to mobilize its entire theoretical
pool of reservists.
So how would modern day Poland fare?
First, let's lay down some ground rules.
1939 Polish borders remain.
The Entire modern day Polish armed forces,
with their personnel, equipment, buildings
and other infrastructure are magically transported
through time and space.
Since the borders of modern day Poland don’t
overlap, some of those assets are placed in
new areas, shifting to the east, to match
the different borders.
To make it more fair, there’d be no surprise
for the germans.
The attackers know their opponent suddenly
got weapons from the future, but there are
less of them.
The Psychological and sociological effects
are all hand waved, as usual in such time
travelling scenarios.
Everyone is bent on carrying on their world
war 2 role.
The Germans and soviets still want to conquer.
The Poles still want to defend their homeland.
The soviet invasion will be covered in a second
video, though.
The Polish army of today is much, much smaller
in numbers, compared to its 1939 counterpart.
It has a core of active army force made up
of full time professional soldiers.
And a territorial army, a reserve force.
The poles from the future appear on August
29th, magically replacing the existing Polish
armed forces.
That means old Polish weapons, active and
reserve army personnel disappear.
But polish civilians can still be mobilized
and factories can still produce weapons.
On August 29th the polish mobilization began,
but was quickly stopped on request of allied
powers, which were back then still trying
to appease germany.
The territorial army and most of the reservists
would likely be able to mobilize by the day
of the invasion.
Knowing they severely lack numbers for a long
front, the modern polish forces would likely
get pulled from the borders and consolidate
closer to the center of the country, defending
a shorter frontline, behind rivers where possible.
Germany, as shown, attacked from several sides.
Their northern territories of Danzig and East
Prussia made it possible to surround Poland.
In the real timeline, german forces advanced
a few dozen miles during the first few days.
But those had to battle their way through.
Here the initial organised resistance near
the border would be minimal.
Would the modern polish air force slow down
those advances?
If so, first it’d need to survive the german
luftwaffe onslaught.
An F-16 winning a battle in the air against
a Messerschmitt 109 isn’t even a question.
The Polish plane would fly much higher and
would deal with the threats from far away,
by missiles.
But protecting the force on the ground would
be MUCH harder.
German air forces going into Poland in 1939
were quite numerous.
Polish air forces were quickly dispersed before
the war, which the modern day polish air forces
would mimic.
Though, modern day fighter jets do require
more support than world war two planes, so
overall effectiveness of such dispersed units
would likely produce less sorties per day
than it would otherwise be capable of.
Modern Poland gets to use the airbases it
has now, as that piece of infrastructure travels
through time.
But it does make the air force less capable
of dispersing.
In the real timeline, the polish air force
actually managed to hold a similar kill to
loss ratio over the first few days, performing
surprise missions from hidden bases.
Until it ran out of supplies, as their bases
were overran on the ground.
The Last remaining 100 or so polish planes
fled to Romania.
The Germans attacked with a force of 300 dive
bombers and nearly 800 medium bombers.
They usually had some 250 fighters to escort
them and another 400 fighters held back to
intercept possible polish attacks.
Another 600 fighters and 400 medium bombers
were not used in the polish campaign, they
were guarding western and central germany
or were simply under maintenance.
The initial German air attack would be tracked
by radars from afar.
And come under massive counterattack.
Some confusion would also be experienced due
to new targets and new locations.
And definitely due to polish missiles.
In addition to the air force, the ground radar
network and the sam systems would take down
german planes by the dozens.
While modern day poland’s air defense systems
are cold war era stuff, in 1939 they would
be devastating.
They would track the large formations of dozens
of german planes and unleash missiles onto
the enemy.
The polish navy also operates two Perry class
frigates for which they’ve procured SM-1
missiles from the US
German planes would have no way of knowing
they’re even under attack until the missiles
detonate.
Old missiles are possibly not that reliable,
though, so more would be likely to miss than
hit.
But even if just one quarter of those missiles
achieve a hit, the germans might lose upward
of 150 aircraft, mostly bombers to medium
altitude SAMs before the Poles run out of
missiles.
Shorter range shoulder launched sams are much
more plentiful in Poland as a domestic missile,
the Grom, based on the Soviet Igla design,
is being produced.
Some 24 hundred missiles have been produced.
Such small sams and computer aided anti aircraft
artillery, of which Poland does have some,
might over time inflict serious losses to
German dive bombers which have to dive low
and directly over targets.
The polish air forces would have been ready
and alerted, thanks to radar.
And initially most of the polish planes would
be ready for action.
The Primary platforms for fighter missions
would be F16s and Mig29s.
Their stocks of air to air missiles are fair
enough that the Poles could down several german
planes per sortie, for several sorties each,
before having to resort to guns.
Older missiles might malfunction more but
still, against unalerted targets, the modern
missiles should enjoy at least 50 percent
if not 90 percent hit rates.
It’s likely the first day of the air war
would see polish jets down upward of 200 german
planes, mostly bombers.
Though, within a day or so, the poles might
mostly be out of missiles.
Of course, by then the germans would likely
lose upward of 500 combat planes, or more
than a third of the total it attacked with.
The Luftwaffe might stop using large formations,
as those would offer the poles target rich
areas.
Some smaller german groups, attacking the
known airbases, might eventually fight through,
as the poles would not have enough planes
to keep some in the air all the time.
Nor enough air defense missiles to continuously
protect those air bases.
The Polish air force might be able to upkeep
close to two dozen interceptors in the air
for the first few days, then have those figures
halved for the rest of the first week.
Small german groups would have a harder time
inflicting a lot of damage to polish planes
dispersed in air bases.
Then again, with such low numbers even a few
planes lost per attack could be very costly.
The luftwaffe would have to back off, though,
as it couldn’t possibly sustain such losses.
As the Luftwaffe threat subsides, the Poles
would use more of what’s left of their air
force offensively, attacking those large german
army formations.
Possibly some of the f-16s would also be spared
for that role as the first week progresses.
Poland would use F-16s to do recon work, in
addition to using drones.
The Scaneagles can loiter for up to 20 hours,
while the smaller Orbiter and FlyEye drones
can fly for a few hours per mission.
As all are launched from catapults, not needing
runways, they’d provide the poles with ample
warning time on most fronts.
The german divisions would not be able to
come unnoticed.
Their F-16s would also use guided munitions,
though part of those would be less useful,
due to no GPS signal.
Still, entire formations of tanks and groups
of german artillery could be attacked with
fair precision and virtually no threat to
the Poles, inflicting heavy losses.
The Soviet Su-22s and M 346 jet trainers would
likely suffer somewhat heavier casualties,
though those too utilize some stand off guided
weapons.
But the biggest push against the german formations
would likely come in the form of Polish armored
formations.
With decent situational awareness, the polish
armor would maximize their effectiveness.
It’s not just about guns, missiles or armor.
The poles would enjoy modern sensors, much
greater engagement ranges, computer aided
aiming and much better data sharing.
The Germans mostly relied on very short range
radios, enabling some tactical communication.
While jamming of german radios might single
handedly have the biggest effect on their
war effort, the modern polish army is severely
lacking in such platforms.
It is likely only a fairly small number of
german divisions would have their radios jammed.
So Poland would use the brute force route.
In fact, poland today has more armored vehicles
than poland had in 1939.
Even the fairly poor soviet era BMP-1 armored
fighting vehicle would in 1939 be a grave
threat to the best German tanks with their
73 millimeter guns.
Even those Patria APCs with semi open machine
gun nests, or the lightly armored BRDMs would
be quite a match for the german Panzer I tankette.
Which was the most numerous german tank back
then.
And modern polish tanks would easily reign
on the battlefield.
Achieving precision hits from a few miles
away on stationary german targets, and even
from a mile away on targets in between of
fire.
Back then german tanks had to stop to fire.
The german armored force would mostly be at
the mercy of the poles.
Perhaps the Panzer 3 or 4 tanks, not very
plentiful back then, could enjoy some success
against the infantry fighting vehicles.
Germany had some 3 and a half thousand tanks
back then, sending most of them into Poland.
But the Panzer one was basically two machine
guns on a lightly armored tracked platform.
The Panzer two was only slightly better with
its small gun.
Both sides would also have some very basic
armored cars with machine guns.
The Germans would have their scout cars and
the poles would have armored humvees and various
other role armored vehicles which could take
a mounted a machine gun.
A single modern tank or infantry fighting
vehicle could very well neutralize up to two
dozen targets with its main gun before needing
to reload.
It’s likely the battles would be even more
lopsided than the example of the gulf war
tank battle of Easting 73, where US tanks
and IFVs at times fought the iraqis on their
own, going against T-55s through T-72s and
against BMP-1s.
Artillery played a large role in world war
2.
Here, the germans would not be able to use
their artillery edge and suppress the defenders.
A German infantry division had roughly twice
as many artillery guns than a polish one.
And today’s polish army has even fewer.
The Difference is, today’s polish artillery
is much more precise, with UAVs aiding in
aiming, as well as being much more mobile
and better protected.
Range wise, modern guns usually significantly
outrange the german guns for the same caliber.
The 120 millimeter mortar vehicle has a range
comparable to the german 75 and even 105 millimeter
field guns.
Basically, the large discrepancy in gun numbers
would over the first few days become insignificant.
Polish guns could reach farther without relocating.
When needing to relocate, they’d do it quicker.
And using their anti artillery radars, in
the few units that have them, they could aid
the air force in hunting german artillery
units.
Due to the overall mobility of the polish
forces and the inability of the Luftwaffe
to control the skies, the poles would likely
dictate the battle.
Attacking where they have superior numbers
and retreating where they happen to be outmatched.
Gradually nibbling away at the vast german
infantry numbers, as they destroy the german
heavy equipment.
Though, the poles might not afford being AS
mobile as they can be.
They’d have to conserve diesel fuel as 1939
Poland simply did not have a lot of diesel
fuel available.
Motorization of the 1939 timeline polish units
was quite poor.
And a lot of the vehicles they did have used
gasoline and not diesel, which today’s polish
army predominantly uses.
So modern day polish forces might have to
ease up on using their trucks and moving entire
brigades quickly so they could save their
fuel for combat vehicles.
Besides fuel, the poles would have the issue
of numbers.
Their army would simply be very low on numbers,
when it comes to infantry.
So the coverage on the frontline would be
quite sporadic.
And holding the original borders would not
be possible, as that’d mean spreading the
units and the vehicles, however potent they
are, too thin, instead of grouping them together
for added effectiveness.
The polish ground army might use the natural
obstacles of rivers, such as the Narew in
the north and the Warta in the west, and fall
behind those lines.
Using air and artillery attacks to soften
up their enemies before they reach the lines.
As well as using the armored formations to
try and deal with any possible breaches over
the rivers.
Another piece of technology that’d aid the
defenders would be the guided anti tank missile.
Here probably used against any sort of german
vehicle, not just tanks.
Poland does have over 3000 Spike Anti tank
guided missiles.
Attack helicopters could help as well, though
they’re of cold war vintage and might get
shot down occasionally as their fairly poor
sensors and missiles would sometimes mean
they’d have to get fairly close to the enemy.
During the first week, Poland might be able
to mobilize a few hundred thousand volunteers
into the army.
But still, such units would largely be just
decoys and cannon fodder, not to be used offensively.
That role would not be useless, though.
As germans would, when scouting, still see
potentially several times more soldiers on
the polish lines.
Slowing down their progress, as they decide
where to attack.
Devoid of much of their heavy and mobile weapons,
the germans would find it very hard to progress
beyond the rivers that the poles would protect.
The poles would likely not have enough forces
to push the germans back on all fronts.
But the one front they would likely attack
would be the north.
A large armored push might follow the eastern
bank of the vistula river, and sever the germans
on the east.
While the rest of the forces slowly encircle
them and push them against the sea.
By ultimately dealing with the northern front,
Poland might trade the original frontline,
220 miles long, for a 130 mile front along
Vista river, up to the sea.
And the initial armored push along the river
might help the polish navy survive.
Still, the navy would largely be inconsequential
to the greater war effort.
More about that in the next video.
During the second week of the war the germans
would likely be paralyzed.
They would have lost control of east prussia,
where perhaps large pockets of resistance
would be left.
Hundreds of thousands of german troops, but
with only basic firearms left and increasingly
short on food.
The attacks throughout the rest of the front
would usually result in bloody defeats.
Germany would be short on vehicles and sending
more in would likely be seen as wasteful.
So they’d likely stay put, using their numerical
advantage in infantry to protect their sides
of the rivers where most of the frontline
would lie.
And pondering their next move.
By the start of week three, The german invasion
would have stalled.
But would the poles be able to celebrate is
a different question.
History may have not been changed yet.
As the soviet union would have attacked the
exhausted poles from the other side.
More 
about that, though, in another video.
