
English: 
We've all had enough of this.
Getting the Brexit election done.
Argh!
Too much?
No?
I'm losing my voice.
Right, so Robert, you've got
a festive frog in your throat.
So I'm going to let you
offload the talking.
And you can have light
felt pen duties today
because you're unwell.
But anyway, here we
are, results day.
And a new blue dawn
has broken, has it not?
It has.
Tories have got
a majority of 80.
It's a bigger win than I
think either of us expected.
I think, as we showed at
the end of the last talk,
we both sort of thought the
Tories were going to make it.
But I certainly
didn't think you were
going to be anything
like as big as that.
No.
So how did we get here?
Have we got any prediction?
We have.
In fact, I happen to
know that people refer
to this backdrop as the shed.
So I'm going to root
around in the shed, where

English: 
We've all had enough of this.
Getting a Brexit election done.
Argh!
Too much?
No?
I'm losing my voice.
Right, so Robert, you've got
a festive frog in your throat.
So I'm going to let you
offload the talking.
And you can have light
felt pen duties today
because you're unwell.
But anyway, here we
are, results day.
And a new blue dawn
has broken, has it not?
It has.
Tories have got
a majority of 80.
It's a bigger win than I
think either of us expected.
I think, as we showed at
the end of the last talk,
we both sort of thought the
Tories were going to make it.
But I certainly
didn't think you were
going to be anything
like as big as that.
No.
So how did we get here?
Have we got any prediction?
We have.
In fact, I happen to
know that people refer
to this backdrop as the shed.
So I'm going to root
around in the shed, where

English: 
I have some of our old artwork.
People have also criticised
us for using paper,
saying we should be recycling.
So I hope they notice
that we are recycling...
Reusing.
...our drawings.
So essentially, everything
the Tories tried to do worked.
And everything the other
sides tried to do to stop them
failed.
It's really quite
as simple as that.
So the Tories managed to break
through this so-called red wall
of Labour heartland seats, not
just right across the north
of England but into Wales, where
large chunks of Wales are now
Tory.
It's true that the Labour party
hung on in a lot of London,
which stays red, and
in other urban seats.
But the Tories also held
on in the south of England
against the Lib Dems.
The Tories' biggest losses
were in Scotland, where they
lost seven of their 13 seats.
Other than that, I think
they lost about four seats
in the rest of the country.
The Liberals took
Richmond Park in London.

English: 
I have some of our old artwork.
People have also criticised
us for using paper,
saying we should be recycling.
So I hope they notice
that we are recycling...
Reusing.
...our drawings.
So essentially, everything
the Tories tried to do worked.
And everything the other
sides tried to do to stop them
failed.
It's really quite
as simple as that.
So the Tories managed to break
through this so-called red wall
of Labour heartland seats, not
just right across the north
of England but into Wales, where
large chunks of Wales are now
Tory.
It's true that the Labour party
hung on in a lot of London,
which stays red, and
in other urban seats.
But the Tories also held
on in the south of England
against the Lib Dems.
The Tories' biggest losses
were in Scotland, where they
lost seven of their 13 seats.
Other than that, I think
they lost about four seats
in the rest of the country.
The Liberals took
Richmond Park in London.

English: 
But a lot of their big
targets they didn't make.
And they didn't unseat.
No seats off them.
No.
And the Lib Dems didn't
manage their scalp
of the night, which was supposed
to be the foreign secretary
Dominic Raab in Esher.
But instead of Dominic Raab
being the Portillo moment,
the Portillo moment was
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem
leader in Dunbartonshire,
decapitated by the SNP.
Very sad end.
And Nicola Sturgeon barely
able to contain her joy.
Did you see the video there?
It's been a tough fight
between the Lib Dems
and the SNP in that seat for
the last three elections.
It's been an awful election
for the Liberal Democrats
and for poor old Jo
Swinson in particular.
Right.
Let's draw a results map then.
Look, I'm going to do
one of my absolutely
wonderful geographical messes.
Maybe a bit simpler
than last time.
Here we go.
And here's Northern Ireland.
That's the Isle of Wight.
How's that?
Is that Okay?
That looks like something I
put on my dresser, I think.
Okay, Okay, so
the SNP is just so
dominant north of
the border, no.
And actually, that's
really interesting,

English: 
But a lot of their big
targets they didn't make.
And they didn't unseat.
No seats off them.
No.
And the Lib Dems didn't
manage their scalp
of the night, which was supposed
to be the foreign secretary
Dominic Raab in Esher.
But instead of Dominic Raab
being the Portillo moment,
the Portillo moment was
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem
leader in Dunbartonshire,
decapitated by the SNP.
Very sad end.
And Nicola Sturgeon barely
able to contain her joy.
Did you see the video there?
It's been a tough fight
between the Lib Dems
and the SNP in that seat for
the last three elections.
It's been an awful election
for the Liberal Democrats
and for poor old Jo
Swinson in particular.
Right.
Let's draw a results map then.
Look, I'm going to do
one of my absolutely
wonderful geographical messes.
Maybe a bit simpler
than last time.
Here we go.
And here's Northern Ireland.
That's the Isle of Wight.
How's that?
Is that Okay?
That looks like something I
put on my dresser, I think.
Okay, Okay, so
the SNP is just so
dominant north of
the border, no.
And actually, that's
really interesting,

English: 
because even though the
Tories did way better than
we were all expecting
in England and Wales.
Actually, we'd begun to expect
that the Tories would hold
onto some seats in Scotland.
But the SNP really
did very well indeed.
They basically chased the
Labour party out of Scotland.
They played the grievances
of Scottish voters
at being forced into a
Brexit they didn't vote for.
And it has paid off for them
in, and it has paid off for them
in this election.
On top of which, Nicola
Sturgeon was easily
the most effective
political performer
on television in the debates.
This has obviously raised-...
what's going on down there?
I don't know.
I'm just adding the south-west.
Carry on, carry on.
This has obviously
raised questions
about a second
Scottish independence
referendum and a new push.
And the SNP certainly
are very emboldened.
And this will be something
that's weighing heavily
on Boris Johnson's mind.
But you think that this
unexpected majority of 80
actually means the story, as
it continues from this point,

English: 
because even though the
Tories did way better than
we were all expecting
in England and Wales.
Actually, we'd begun to expect
that the Tories would hold
onto some seats in Scotland.
But the SNP really
did very well indeed.
They basically chased the
Labour party out of Scotland.
They played the grievances
of Scottish voters
at being forced into a
Brexit they didn't vote for.
And it has paid off for them
in, and it has paid off for them
in this election.
On top of which, Nicola
Sturgeon was easily
the most effective
political performer
on television in the debates.
This has obviously raised-...
what's going on down there?
I don't know.
I'm just adding the south-west.
Carry on, carry on.
This has obviously
raised questions
about a second
Scottish independence
referendum and a new push.
And the SNP certainly
are very emboldened.
And this will be something
that's weighing heavily
on Boris Johnson's mind.
But you think that this
unexpected majority of 80
actually means the story, as
it continues from this point,

English: 
could be much more interesting
on Brexit and on the union,
right?
Because if Boris Johnson had
had a much slimmer majority
we may have got out of
the parliamentary deadlock
of the hung parliament.
But he, the prime minister,
would still have not properly
been in control
and possibly would
have been still under the
influence of the European
Research Group,
the arch-Brexiteers
in his own party.
The Brexit deadline coming up.
He had said he would get the
whole trade deal negotiated
by the end of 2020.
But actually now
that he's so powerful
and has had such
a convincing win,
he's got way more room to
do more interesting things
and to be more flexible, right?
And not only has he
got a big majority,
but the opposition is shattered.
The Labour party is down
to just over 200 seats.
It's going to be fighting
itself for the next six months.
The Liberal Democrats hammered.
Only the SNP are cohesive.
So not only has he
got a big majority,
but he's got it at the time when
the opposition is very weak.
Brexit is now going to happen.
Correct.
By the end of
January, the UK will
have left the European Union.
So that uncertainty is gone.

English: 
could be much more interesting
on Brexit and on the union,
right?
Because if Boris Johnson had
had a much slimmer majority
we may have got out of
the parliamentary deadlock
of the hung parliament.
But he, the prime minister,
would still have not properly
been in control
and possibly would
have been still under the
influence of the European
Research Group,
the arch-Brexiteers
in his own party.
The Brexit deadline coming up.
He had said he would get the
whole trade deal negotiated
by the end of 2020.
But actually now
that he's so powerful
and has had such
a convincing win,
he's got way more room to
do more interesting things
and to be more flexible, right?
And not only has he
got a big majority,
but the opposition is shattered.
The Labour party is down
to just over 200 seats.
It's going to be fighting
itself for the next six months.
The Liberal Democrats hammered.
Only the SNP are cohesive.
So not only has he
got a big majority,
but he's got it at the time when
the opposition is very weak.
Brexit is now going to happen.
Correct.
By the end of
January, the UK will
have left the European Union.
So that uncertainty is gone.

English: 
So that's happening, he has
more room for manoeuvre and also
just more authority.
He's just won a big election.
So that's the biggest
Conservative victory
since Margaret Thatcher in 1987.
So he's got all that authority.
We don't know the
extent to which he
wants to decouple from the ERG.
We know some of his advisers
have contempt for them.
But we're not sure.
But I think the point that
you're making and which I agree
with, is that...
what?
No, it's fine.
Do agree with the
point you think
I'm making, because it's
not the one I'm making.
You actually said it.
And I was going agree with you.
This is most unfair.
Because of the
threat of Scotland,
because of the new
seats that he has won,
it might change his approach
to the Brexit discussions.
He's now got to conduct
the next stage of talks,
the trade talks with a mind to
not doing anything that pushes
Scotland further away
and keeping happy
these new seats
that they have won,
the so-called red
wall, the manufacturing
heartlands, as were at least, in
the north and in the Midlands.
All these seats...
There are still
Labour seats there.
Yes, of course there are.
But I mean, it is quite
striking how much blue
there is there now.

English: 
So that's happening, he has
more room for manoeuvre and also
just more authority.
He's just won a big election.
So that's the biggest
Conservative victory
since Margaret Thatcher in 1987.
So he's got all that authority.
We don't know the
extent to which he
wants to decouple from the ERG.
We know some of his advisers
have contempt for them.
But we're not sure.
But I think the point that
you're making and which I agree
with, is that...
what?
No, it's fine.
Do agree with the
point you think
I'm making, because it's
not the one I'm making.
You actually said it.
And I was going agree with you.
This is most unfair.
Because of the
threat of Scotland,
because of the new
seats that he has won,
it might change his approach
to the Brexit discussions.
He's now got to conduct
the next stage of talks,
the trade talks with a mind to
not doing anything that pushes
Scotland further away
and keeping happy
these new seats
that they have won,
the so-called red
wall, the manufacturing
heartlands, as were at least, in
the north and in the Midlands.
All these seats...
There are still
Labour seats there.
Yes, of course there are.
But I mean, it is quite
striking how much blue
there is there now.

English: 
Those seats have
different priorities
to the wealthy south.
Quite.
And they've got
MPs who are going
to have to be mindful
of those things
if they want to keep their
seats this next election,
because as Boris Johnson said,
they've been lent these votes.
They haven't got them in
the bag yet for keeps.
So it's manufacturing areas,
areas where the export
industries are important.
So for that, you need close
trading relationships.
So that means
you're going to have
to go for a softer Brexit,
maybe a very soft Brexit.
We might be getting
our hopes up.
I think if he sticks
to his deadline,
it's only him forcing this
deadline of 2020 on himself,
the only type of
trade you can get
is a very thin one,
basically tariffs and quotas.
The big sticking point is the
issue of regulatory alignment.
That's the thing that makes
frictionless trade possible.
That's going to be what a lot
of these places want to see.
Having talked up the
benefits of freedom
from regulatory
alignment, he's going
to have to think about
if he really wants that.
He's going to have
to think about how
he prioritises a European trade
deal ahead of a US trade deal.

English: 
Those seats have
different priorities
to the wealthy south.
Quite.
And they've got
MPs who are going
to have to be mindful
of those things
if they want to keep their
seats this next election,
because as Boris Johnson said,
they've been lent these votes.
They haven't got them in
the bag yet for keeps.
So it's manufacturing areas,
areas where the export
industries are important.
So for that, you need close
trading relationships.
So that means
you're going to have
to go for a softer Brexit,
maybe a very soft Brexit.
We might be getting
our hopes up.
I think if he sticks
to his deadline,
it's only him forcing this
deadline of 2020 on himself,
the only type of
trade you can get
is a very thin one,
basically tariffs and quotas.
The big sticking point is the
issue of regulatory alignment.
That's the thing that makes
frictionless trade possible.
That's going to be what a lot
of these places want to see.
Having talked up the
benefits of freedom
from regulatory
alignment, he's going
to have to think about
if he really wants that.
He's going to have
to think about how
he prioritises a European trade
deal ahead of a US trade deal.

English: 
US trade deal is the big
political prize of Brexit.
Economically, it's worth
nothing like as much.
It's not even comparable
to a European deal.
Let's talk a bit about Northern
Ireland, because the DUP,
the Democratic Unionists,
who had been in coalition
with Theresa May, had
then been key allies
until Boris Johnson put together
his oven-ready exit deal.
But actually, in the
election, the DUP
has done really badly
in Northern Ireland.
So they're sort of
disempowered as the voice
of Northern Ireland.
It's gone from sort
of orange to green.
But of course, in Boris
Johnson's current withdrawal
agreement there is the erection
of a border in the Irish Sea.
What happens with that?
That's still going to cause
some problems, isn't it?
My deeply cynical view of this
is that Boris Johnson really
just doesn't care very much
about Northern Ireland.
You know, he worked... it
was hard when he was trying
to become leader.
And although he would not seek
the reunification of Ireland,
I don't think he would think
of it in the way he thinks
about the loss of Scotland.
Oh, my goodness.
And the unionist
MPs, as you were

English: 
US trade deal is the big
political prize of Brexit.
Economically, it's worth
nothing like as much.
It's not even comparable
to a European deal.
Let's talk a bit about Northern
Ireland, because the DUP,
the Democratic Unionists,
who had been in coalition
with Theresa May, had
then been key allies
until Boris Johnson put together
his oven-ready exit deal.
But actually, in the
election, the DUP
has done really badly
in Northern Ireland.
So they're sort of
disempowered as the voice
of Northern Ireland.
It's gone from sort
of orange to green.
But of course, in Boris
Johnson's current withdrawal
agreement there is the erection
of a border in the Irish Sea.
What happens with that?
That's still going to cause
some problems, isn't it?
My deeply cynical view of this
is that Boris Johnson really
just doesn't care very much
about Northern Ireland.
You know, he worked... it
was hard when he was trying
to become leader.
And although he would not seek
the reunification of Ireland,
I don't think he would think
of it in the way he thinks
about the loss of Scotland.
Oh, my goodness.
And the unionist
MPs, as you were

English: 
saying, for the
first time, they're
in a minority of elected
MPs from the province.
That's an extraordinary thing.
It has to be possible
that a border poll is
coming in the next decade.
A border poll being
a referendum on which
the whole island
of Ireland votes
as to whether to become
the republic or not the UK.
It's in play.
And these border checks, I
don't think they necessarily
force Northern Ireland into
the hands of the Republic,
because it's actually got
quite a preferential deal
in this Brexit deal.
But it does mean that
Northern Ireland has
to look towards
the European Union
as much as it looks towards
the UK for its economic policy
and future.
So it's kind of basically
two huge existential
topics continuing to be in
play, the future of the UK
as a union, and also
Brexit and the relationship
with our closest allies and
former fellow member states.
But of course, the reason
that the Tory party
has won this
stonking majority is
by saying, we'll just get
Brexit out of the way,

English: 
saying, for the
first time, they're
in a minority of elected
MPs from the province.
That's an extraordinary thing.
It has to be possible
that a border poll is
coming in the next decade.
A border poll being
a referendum on which
the whole island
of Ireland votes
as to whether to become
the republic or not the UK.
It's in play.
And these border checks, I
don't think they necessarily
force Northern Ireland into
the hands of the Republic,
because it's actually got
quite a preferential deal
in this Brexit deal.
But it does mean that
Northern Ireland has
to look towards
the European Union
as much as it looks towards
the UK for its economic policy
and future.
So it's kind of basically
two huge existential
topics continuing to be in
play, the future of the UK
as a union, and also
Brexit and the relationship
with our closest allies and
former fellow member states.
But of course, the reason
that the Tory party
has won this
stonking majority is
by saying, we'll just get
Brexit out of the way,

English: 
because there's a
whole other agenda.
Let's just talk a bit about
what happened to Labour.
This is the worst set of results
for Labour in terms of seats
in the Commons since 1935.
It's catastrophic.
Think that actually,
after a few years
in which unanswerable
laws of politics
seem to have been suspended.
I think actually what happened
here is they returned.
The fact is, the Labour party
presented the country with
a manifesto that was so
far to the left of what
the country's ever shown itself
ready to accept that they
rejected it.
And they put at
their head a leader
who the country not only
thought was too left wing,
but actually thought was weak.
They thought, you've got
this extraordinary agenda.
And there's no way you
can deliver it anyway.
You're not good enough.
So it's interesting that thing
about weakness, because I think
you said you'd been speaking
to some pollsters who had said
the catastrophic thing about
Jeremy Corbyn's prevaricating
on Brexitv- was he
Leave, was he Remain?
This idea he'd remain
neutral in a referendum.
And also possibly his kind of
slightly shrugging attitude
to whether the SNP got their
precious second referendum
on Scottish independence.

English: 
because there's a
whole other agenda.
Let's just talk a bit about
what happened to Labour.
This is the worst set of results
for Labour in terms of seats
in the Commons since 1935.
It's catastrophic.
Think that actually,
after a few years
in which unanswerable
laws of politics
seem to have been suspended.
I think actually what happened
here is they returned.
The fact is, the Labour party
presented the country with
a manifesto that was so
far to the left of what
the country's ever shown itself
ready to accept that they
rejected it.
And they put at
their head a leader
who the country not only
thought was too left wing,
but actually thought was weak.
They thought, you've got
this extraordinary agenda.
And there's no way you
can deliver it anyway.
You're not good enough.
So it's interesting that thing
about weakness, because I think
you said you'd been speaking
to some pollsters who had said
the catastrophic thing about
Jeremy Corbyn's prevaricating
on Brexitv- was he
Leave, was he Remain?
This idea he'd remain
neutral in a referendum.
And also possibly his kind of
slightly shrugging attitude
to whether the SNP got their
precious second referendum
on Scottish independence.

English: 
It was as much whether that
made him look like a weak leader
as it was about the
issues themselves.
That's right.
I mean, I think...
It's really interesting that,
because you'd think people
would care so much, for
example, about keeping
the country together.
You would.
But I think they also
care more immediately
about the issues around
themselves and their own lives.
And constitutional issues
always seem more existential
until they're right upon you.
A bit abstract.
More abstract -
that too, that too.
Well, I should have
thought abstraction.
But I think it's going to be
very interesting how the Labour
party attempts to process this,
because it's very clear already
that all of the
Corbynites are working.
They had a script they
circulated on election night,
even before we knew
the results, to explain
why they'd done so badly.
And the whole structure
was blame it on Brexit.
So they've hung on, as we
had explained, in London.
They've also hung on in
sort of central Manchester
and other cities.
But they've done really,
really badly in smaller towns.
And these are the places where
people's job prospects are not
good, there's a lot of poverty.

English: 
It was as much whether that
made him look like a weak leader
as it was about the
issues themselves.
That's right.
I mean, I think...
It's really interesting that,
because you'd think people
would care so much, for
example, about keeping
the country together.
You would.
But I think they also
care more immediately
about the issues around
themselves and their own lives.
And constitutional issues
always seem more existential
until they're right upon you.
A bit abstract.
More abstract -
that too, that too.
Well, I should have
thought abstraction.
But I think it's going to be
very interesting how the Labour
party attempts to process this,
because it's very clear already
that all of the
Corbynites are working.
They had a script they
circulated on election night,
even before we knew
the results, to explain
why they'd done so badly.
And the whole structure
was blame it on Brexit.
So they've hung on, as we
had explained, in London.
They've also hung on in
sort of central Manchester
and other cities.
But they've done really,
really badly in smaller towns.
And these are the places where
people's job prospects are not
good, there's a lot of poverty.

English: 
But these have always been
absolutely staunch Labour
territory.
And now they've been
persuaded to vote Conservative
for the first time.
So it's a huge
redrawing of the map.
It really is.
Brexit is the lever that Boris
Johnson used to prise open
the Leavers, as it were.
And he...
Oh, dear.
I didn't even plan that one.
But it wasn't just about
Brexit for all of these people.
I think it was also about...
Could you just move your
glass for a second. .
I'm going to do my little...
I think it was also about the
factors that got them voting
for Brexit in the first place.
The working class vote
in a lot of these places
swung heavily to the Tories,
even in the Remain seats.
It wasn't just in
the Leave seats,
because I think this notion of
saying to people, you're poor,
you can't help
yourself, we the state
are going to provide
all the things for you,
take these free things, is
not actually that appealing
to a lot of people.
They want a sense of aspiration.
They want a path out.
They want a notion that
if you do this for me,
I can climb out myself,
of whatever hole I'm in.
I can improve my life.
I just need a bit of help.

English: 
But these have always been
absolutely staunch Labour
territory.
And now they've been
persuaded to vote Conservative
for the first time.
So it's a huge
redrawing of the map.
It really is.
Brexit is the lever that Boris
Johnson used to prise open
the Leavers, as it were.
And he...
Oh, dear.
I didn't even plan that one.
But it wasn't just about
Brexit for all of these people.
I think it was also about...
Could you just move your
glass for a second. .
I'm going to do my little...
I think it was also about the
factors that got them voting
for Brexit in the first place.
The working class vote
in a lot of these places
swung heavily to the Tories,
even in the Remain seats.
It wasn't just in
the Leave seats,
because I think this notion of
saying to people, you're poor,
you can't help
yourself, we the state
are going to provide
all the things for you,
take these free things, is
not actually that appealing
to a lot of people.
They want a sense of aspiration.
They want a path out.
They want a notion that
if you do this for me,
I can climb out myself,
of whatever hole I'm in.
I can improve my life.
I just need a bit of help.

English: 
And I think the Labour agenda
of lots and lots of public
provision, lots of free
stuff, didn't actually speak
to people's own sense of pride.
So when Ed Miliband was Labour
leader in the 2015 election,
their policy programme was
ridiculed by one of their US
Democrat advisers as vote
Labour, get a free microwave.
And there was a sense with
this Labour manifesto,
it was like get a whole new
fitted kitchen or whatever
else, your list of bribes.
And someone who'll cook for you.
And actually, interestingly,
the polling conducted by Lord
Ashcroft, I thought,
was so interesting,
because it showed that the
Labour leavers who rejected
the Labour party this time
and voted Conservative,
the sort of fear of a second
referendum and unpicking Brexit
was only their third concern
on their list of concerns.
Their number one
concern was they
worried about Jeremy Corbyn
in Number 10 Downing Street.
And their second concern
was this crazy list
of spending pledges.
Yeah, and the two are
linked, of course.
They didn't trust him
making all predictions.
I think that's absolutely right.
And of course, Labour supporters
will argue that this was all
down to a vilification campaign.

English: 
And I think the Labour agenda
of lots and lots of public
provision, lots of free
stuff, didn't actually speak
to people's own sense of pride.
So when Ed Miliband was Labour
leader in the 2015 election,
their policy programme was
ridiculed by one of their US
Democrat advisers as vote
Labour, get a free microwave.
And there was a sense with
this Labour manifesto,
it was like get a whole new
fitted kitchen or whatever
else, your list of bribes.
And someone who'll cook for you.
And actually, interestingly,
the polling conducted by Lord
Ashcroft, I thought,
was so interesting,
because it showed that the
Labour leavers who rejected
the Labour party this time
and voted Conservative,
the sort of fear of a second
referendum and unpicking Brexit
was only their third concern
on their list of concerns.
Their number one
concern was they
worried about Jeremy Corbyn
in Number 10 Downing Street.
And their second concern
was this crazy list
of spending pledges.
Yeah, and the two are
linked, of course.
They didn't trust him
making all predictions.
I think that's absolutely right.
And of course, Labour supporters
will argue that this was all
down to a vilification campaign.

English: 
And it is true that any Labour
leader, and him in particular,
has to weather a hostile
media environment.
But the truth is,
that's the weather.
And you have to be
able to deal with it.
And Jeremy Corbyn
showed no readiness
to deal with that agenda.
He thought after 2017 they'd
found a miracle way around it.
But the truth is, he didn't
go out and contest it.
He frequently was
absent in major points
in British politics,
particularly after Brexit.
And people looked at him and
just thought, you're not there.
So the other thing with the
Labour vote is it piles up
in places they don't
need it, right?
So even though it's
true that lots of people
registered to vote in the last
few weeks before the election,
even though there may have
been a slight increase
in young people turning out
to vote, which they don't do
in such great numbers as
older voters who tend to vote
Conservative,
those votes, again,
were in places they
didn't need them.
And Jeremy Corbyn going around
the country doing his election
rallies, he kept turning up
in safe Labour seats to rally
the faithful rather
than reaching out.
Although, some of these seats
the Tories took were safe

English: 
And it is true that any Labour
leader, and him in particular,
has to weather a hostile
media environment.
But the truth is,
that's the weather.
And you have to be
able to deal with it.
And Jeremy Corbyn
showed no readiness
to deal with that agenda.
He thought after 2017 they'd
found a miracle way around it.
But the truth is, he didn't
go out and contest it.
He frequently was
absent in major points
in British politics,
particularly after Brexit.
And people looked at him and
just thought, you're not there.
So the other thing with the
Labour vote is it piles up
in places they don't
need it, right?
So even though it's
true that lots of people
registered to vote in the last
few weeks before the election,
even though there may have
been a slight increase
in young people turning out
to vote, which they don't do
in such great numbers as
older voters who tend to vote
Conservative,
those votes, again,
were in places they
didn't need them.
And Jeremy Corbyn going around
the country doing his election
rallies, he kept turning up
in safe Labour seats to rally
the faithful rather
than reaching out.
Although, some of these seats
the Tories took were safe

English: 
Labour seats quite recently.
I was talking to our
data genius John Murdoch
about what are the
demographics showing.
And he hadn't got
all the data yet.
But what he said was he
thought that the really extreme
division of young and old
that characterised the last
election, where Labour
absolutely mopped up to about
40-something years
old, and the Tories,
the other side of that line.
He said he didn't think it
was quite as sharp this time.
And that actually, there
were younger voters voting
Conservative in
these kind of seats,
and that the divisions
we're seeing,
they were around social
class, wealth, and education.
The interesting question, or
one that is going to play out,
is whether Labour
lost all these seats,
because it tried to pander to
the Remain side, or whether,
had it failed to pander
to the Remain side,
it would have done worse.
Clearly, the
Corbynite narrative is
very much, we tried to pander
to Remain, that's why we lost.
I don't think it's
as clean as that,
because I think Labour
got a lot of seats.
And it saved itself
in a lot of places
by dint of being the
only Remainish party.
So the other party that
had a really bad night
was the poor old Lib Dems.
Look, here we are.

English: 
Labour seats quite recently.
I was talking to our
data genius John Murdoch
about what are the
demographics showing.
And he hadn't got
all the data yet.
But what he said was he
thought that the really extreme
division of young and old
that characterised the last
election, where Labour
absolutely mopped up to about
40-something years
old, and the Tories,
the other side of that line.
He said he didn't think it
was quite as sharp this time.
And that actually, there
were younger voters voting
Conservative in
these kind of seats,
and that the divisions
we're seeing,
they were around social
class, wealth, and education.
The interesting question, or
one that is going to play out,
is whether Labour
lost all these seats,
because it tried to pander to
the Remain side, or whether,
had it failed to pander
to the Remain side,
it would have done worse.
Clearly, the
Corbynite narrative is
very much, we tried to pander
to Remain, that's why we lost.
I don't think it's
as clean as that,
because I think Labour
got a lot of seats.
And it saved itself
in a lot of places
by dint of being the
only Remainish party.
So the other party that
had a really bad night
was the poor old Lib Dems.
Look, here we are.

English: 
And as we've said,
Jo Swinson actually
lost her seat by 100-odd
votes in East Dunbartonshire
in Scotland.
They picked up a few
seats from the Tories
but not a lot of the ones
that they'd hoped for.
Being the sort of outrageously
optimistic types, even
in near-death
experiences, they're
very chatty about the number
of second places they've
lost for another election.
But of course, with a
comfortable majority
now, there isn't going to be
another election as soon as we
possibly thought they
would be if there
were a hung parliament.
So they're going to
struggle, the Lib
Dems, to find any relevant
role, aren't they,
in this parliament?
Yeah, I mean, I've been
really rough on them.
If you think back to June,
talk of them getting back
to 50 or 60 seats did not
seem at all incredible.
It's been the most
brutal squeeze.
And it's happened in a very,
very short space of time.
They didn't have
a great campaign.
But I still think
most of it was down
to just the brutalities of the
first past the post system.
So I think they
had a bad campaign.
But I think there's a kind
of political law of physics,

English: 
And as we've said,
Jo Swinson actually
lost her seat by 100-odd
votes in East Dunbartonshire
in Scotland.
They picked up a few
seats from the Tories
but not a lot of the ones
that they'd hoped for.
Being the sort of outrageously
optimistic types, even
in near-death
experiences, they're
very chatty about the number
of second places they've
lost for another election.
But of course, with a
comfortable majority
now, there isn't going to be
another election as soon as we
possibly thought they
would be if there
were a hung parliament.
So they're going to
struggle, the Lib
Dems, to find any relevant
role, aren't they,
in this parliament?
Yeah, I mean, I've been
really rough on them.
If you think back to June,
talk of them getting back
to 50 or 60 seats did not
seem at all incredible.
It's been the most
brutal squeeze.
And it's happened in a very,
very short space of time.
They didn't have
a great campaign.
But I still think
most of it was down
to just the brutalities of the
first past the post system.
So I think they
had a bad campaign.
But I think there's a kind
of political law of physics,

English: 
which is that if the electorate
are quite happy to see
the Labour leader
in Downing Street,
they're comfortable
voting Lib Dem.
And that's in this
territory here.
If this territory here is
worried about the Labour party
in power, they
don't vote Lib Dem,
because they're worried
about letting Labour in.
Well, that's was absolutely
what we saw under Tony Blair.
I mean, the Lib Dems' greatest
recent period of success
was in the era of Tony
Blair and Gordon Brown.
That actually - mistakes just
didn't - if were a Tory voter,
losing didn't look
that big a risk.
And actually, I suspect for
some moderate Labour voters,
the same way.
Actually, it's only David
Cameron, what could he
do to the country?
So I think you're
completely right.
The more stark the
choice, the harder
it is for middle parties.
I mean, the Lib Dems' high
watermark was 2005 under
Charles Kennedy when...
You think in share of the
vote, it was 2010 or so.
Yeah, but in seats, it was 2005.
And I think that's really
interesting, because I think

English: 
which is that if the electorate
are quite happy to see
the Labour leader
in Downing Street,
they're comfortable
voting Lib Dem.
And that's in this
territory here.
If this territory here is
worried about the Labour party
in power, they
don't vote Lib Dem,
because they're worried
about letting Labour in.
Well, that's was absolutely
what we saw under Tony Blair.
I mean, the Lib Dems' greatest
recent period of success
was in the era of Tony
Blair and Gordon Brown.
That actually - mistakes just
didn't - if were a Tory voter,
losing didn't look
that big a risk.
And actually, I suspect for
some moderate Labour voters,
the same way.
Actually, it's only David
Cameron, what could he
do to the country?
So I think you're
completely right.
The more stark the
choice, the harder
it is for middle parties.
I mean, the Lib Dems' high
watermark was 2005 under
Charles Kennedy when...
You think in share of the
vote, it was 2010 or so.
Yeah, but in seats, it was 2005.
And I think that's really
interesting, because I think

English: 
people were happy to have
Blair in Downing Street,
but they wanted to give
him a kicking over Iraq.
Yes, but without that sort
of friendly factor towards
the Labour leader more
broadly, they just struggle.
And I think they've completely
lost touch with that idea.
I think both the
parties of the left,
the Lib Dems and
the Labour party,
because the Lib Dems still
are kind of centre left,
for all the Nick
Clegg coalition era,
they've just completely lost
touch with this sort of law
of British politics.
What can they do about it?
It's not a law they can affect.
No, there isn't.
So there's nothing
they could have...
I don't know...
Well, they can hang
on in there and build.
I mean, they're in government
in Wales as it happens.
A lot of the MPs who stood as
independents defied the whip,
they all lost their seats.
The MPs who defected from
Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
Gary Locke.
They all lost their
seats as well.
You know, some really brave and
good people, Luciana Berger,
Sam Gyimah, Anna
Soubry, David Gauke.
They're all gone.
So parliament has lost a
lot of these people who
stood up and were counted
on Brexit and other issues
during that campaign.

English: 
people were happy to have
Blair in Downing Street,
but they wanted to give
him a kicking over Iraq.
Yes, but without that sort
of friendly factor towards
the Labour leader more
broadly, they just struggle.
And I think they've completely
lost touch with that idea.
I think both the
parties of the left,
the Lib Dems and
the Labour party,
because the Lib Dems still
are kind of centre left,
for all the Nick
Clegg coalition era,
they've just completely lost
touch with this sort of law
of British politics.
What can they do about it?
It's not a law they can affect.
No, there isn't.
So there's nothing
they could have...
I don't know...
Well, they can hang
on in there and build.
I mean, they're in government
in Wales as it happens.
A lot of the MPs who stood as
independents defied the whip,
they all lost their seats.
The MPs who defected from
Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
Gary Locke.
They all lost their
seats as well.
You know, some really brave and
good people, Luciana Berger,
Sam Gyimah, Anna
Soubry, David Gauke.
They're all gone.
So parliament has lost a
lot of these people who
stood up and were counted
on Brexit and other issues
during that campaign.

English: 
And it's going to be a much
more monolithic parliament.
So what do you
think's going to be
the most significant
point of tension
then in the next few months?
I think that the SNP
is, to some extent,
talking the talk on
an early referendum.
I don't think they either
expect or necessarily want
that referendum in 2020.
The polls aren't yet
showing them a majority
that they would win.
So I think for the
moment, they want
to talk the talk about the
beastly English are not
letting us have our referendum.
Let the Brexit talks go on,
and see how that plays out.
If they win in 2021 in
the Holyrood Scottish
parliamentary
elections, they're going
to find it very difficult
not to demand a referendum.
And although Boris Johnson's
people were saying today,
well, we're simply not going
to have it, there's been one,
I think, what are they
going to do, turn Scotland
into Catalonia?
They're going to refuse
to allow a referendum?
I don't see how that works.
So I think we've got a
year of shadowboxing.
And then we'll see
where we are in a bit.
You know, when May took
over as prime minister,
she made a big deal of flying up
to Edinburgh on the first day,

English: 
And it's going to be a much
more monolithic parliament.
So what do you
think's going to be
the most significant
point of tension
then in the next few months?
I think that the SNP
is, to some extent,
talking the talk on
an early referendum.
I don't think they either
expect or necessarily want
that referendum in 2020.
The polls aren't yet
showing them a majority
that they would win.
So I think for the
moment, they want
to talk the talk about the
beastly English are not
letting us have our referendum.
Let the Brexit talks go on,
and see how that plays out.
If they win in 2021 in
the Holyrood Scottish
parliamentary
elections, they're going
to find it very difficult
not to demand a referendum.
And although Boris Johnson's
people were saying today,
well, we're simply not going
to have it, there's been one,
I think, what are they
going to do, turn Scotland
into Catalonia?
They're going to refuse
to allow a referendum?
I don't see how that works.
So I think we've got a
year of shadowboxing.
And then we'll see
where we are in a bit.
You know, when May took
over as prime minister,
she made a big deal of flying up
to Edinburgh on the first day,

English: 
shaking hands with Sturgeon,
and saying this is going
to be an inclusive process.
Of course, it wasn't at all.
But it would potentially
be possible to actually
then conduct the
trade negotiations,
work towards the
final Brexit deal
in a way that includes
Edinburgh and perhaps
a newly revived
Stormont Northern
Irish assembly and the Welsh.
Is there not a way
binding all together?
Because with the
DUP weakened, that's
a chance to revive
the Stormont assembly.
The problem with it is
conducting these talks
with the SNP.
If you're conducting
it with Holyrood,
you're conducting it
with the SNP there.
And they have no incentive to
be helpful in terms of what
Boris Johnson wants to achieve.
And it's win-win for them.
Either they get a
much softer Brexit
than he wants to
give them, or they
get to say their
Brexit strategy has
been denied by the brutish
English government.
So I don't know about that.
But I think he could include
more Scottish Conservatives
and try to use people
like Ruth Davidson,
for example, much more to
project a Scottish sense.
And I do think it could be
the cover for him showing

English: 
shaking hands with Sturgeon,
and saying this is going
to be an inclusive process.
Of course, it wasn't at all.
But it would potentially
be possible to actually
then conduct the
trade negotiations,
work towards the
final Brexit deal
in a way that includes
Edinburgh and perhaps
a newly revived
Stormont Northern
Irish assembly and the Welsh.
Is there not a way
binding all together?
Because with the
DUP weakened, that's
a chance to revive
the Stormont assembly.
The problem with it is
conducting these talks
with the SNP.
If you're conducting
it with Holyrood,
you're conducting it
with the SNP there.
And they have no incentive to
be helpful in terms of what
Boris Johnson wants to achieve.
And it's win-win for them.
Either they get a
much softer Brexit
than he wants to
give them, or they
get to say their
Brexit strategy has
been denied by the brutish
English government.
So I don't know about that.
But I think he could include
more Scottish Conservatives
and try to use people
like Ruth Davidson,
for example, much more to
project a Scottish sense.
And I do think it could be
the cover for him showing

English: 
much more flexibility in
the next year of trade talks
than we necessarily
were led to assume when
we looked at the manifesto.
Do you think we should talk
about the Brexit party?
Well, they just faded
away, didn't they,
having decided to stand down?
But then they potentially
took quite a lot of votes off
the Labour party and made it
easier for the Tories to win
those seats.
It does look like in quite a
few seats, they made a real...
We've lost our pale blue.
You've got the pale blue.
It made a real difference
to taking votes from Labour.
There were seats where
they split the vote.
And the Labour MPs like Dan
Jarvis in one of the Barnsley
seats survived, because the
Brexit party and Tory party
vote split.
By and large, they weren't
unhelpful to what Boris Johnson
was trying to achieve.
I still thought
in the last week,
it was quite hard to
understand what the Brexit
party were playing at.
Nigel Farage was saying he was
going to spoil his ballot paper
or then start a new party called
the Reform Party to campaign
for proportional
representation so that they
could have a permanent say.
Is what we're
concluding from all this
that he's, Boris Johnson
is so empowered now

English: 
much more flexibility in
the next year of trade talks
than we necessarily
were led to assume when
we looked at the manifesto.
Do you think we should talk
about the Brexit party?
Well, they just faded
away, didn't they,
having decided to stand down?
But then they potentially
took quite a lot of votes off
the Labour party and made it
easier for the Tories to win
those seats.
It does look like in quite a
few seats, they made a real...
We've lost our pale blue.
You've got the pale blue.
It made a real difference
to taking votes from Labour.
There were seats where
they split the vote.
And the Labour MPs like Dan
Jarvis in one of the Barnsley
seats survived, because the
Brexit party and Tory party
vote split.
By and large, they weren't
unhelpful to what Boris Johnson
was trying to achieve.
I still thought
in the last week,
it was quite hard to
understand what the Brexit
party were playing at.
Nigel Farage was saying he was
going to spoil his ballot paper
or then start a new party called
the Reform Party to campaign
for proportional
representation so that they
could have a permanent say.
Is what we're
concluding from all this
that he's, Boris Johnson
is so empowered now

English: 
by this majority of 80 that he
can be a kinder, gentler Boris?
Well, it's possible.
We ought to find out.
We'll need a little bit
more about the new MPs
and see what the composition of
the new Conservative party is.
I think you're right
that he is empowered.
For a while at least, he's going
to be able to do what he wants.
He'll reshape his cabinet.
Some of the people
who were less lovable
might find themselves out.
The Rees-Moggs?
I wasn't going to name names.
I'm going to name a name again.
The Rees-Moggs?
Anyway, he'll have a
bit of a honeymoon now.
He'll have the honeymoon
he didn't really
get when he won the
leadership before.
And he will be able to take
the Conservative party,
the government, and therefore
the country in the direction he
wants for a while.
The nature of the
trade negotiation
is, well, Britain
is still the weaker
partner in all of these talks.
And Scottish nationalism is a
force that he can't control.
So it's been a very, very
good week for Boris Johnson.
He's won.
He's been vindicated.
He's going to get a
period of political grace.
But I don't think
it'll last five years.

English: 
by this majority of 80 that he
can be a kinder, gentler Boris?
Well, it's possible.
We ought to find out.
We'll need a little bit
more about the new MPs
and see what the composition of
the new Conservative party is.
I think you're right
that he is empowered.
For a while at least, he's going
to be able to do what he wants.
He'll reshape his cabinet.
Some of the people
who were less lovable
might find themselves out.
The Rees-Moggs?
I wasn't going to name names.
I'm going to name a name again.
The Rees-Moggs?
Anyway, he'll have a
bit of a honeymoon now.
He'll have the honeymoon
he didn't really
get when he won the
leadership before.
And he will be able to take
the Conservative party,
the government, and therefore
the country in the direction he
wants for a while.
The nature of the
trade negotiation
is, well, Britain
is still the weaker
partner in all of these talks.
And Scottish nationalism is a
force that he can't control.
So it's been a very, very
good week for Boris Johnson.
He's won.
He's been vindicated.
He's going to get a
period of political grace.
But I don't think
it'll last five years.

English: 
So I would say that he
can do what he wants now.
It's just that we don't really
know what it is that he wants.
Do you think he knows?
No.
On that cheery thought.

English: 
So I would say that he
can do what he wants now.
It's just that we don't really
know what it is that he wants.
Do you think he knows?
No.
On that cheery thought.
