On February 8, just one day before the start
of the Olympic Winter Games in South Korea
- North Korea held a military parade showing
off their latest rockets.
And based on the timing of this, it is clear
that this is meant to send a message to the
outside world.
Nonetheless, the country also is gaining more
knowledge every year and is making rapid progress
in their missile development.
"So between 1994 and 2007 North korea did
16 missile tests and 1 nuclear test.
From January 2008 to September of 2016 they
did 80 missile tests and 4 nuclear tests.
And at the rate they are going in 4 years
of Trump they're gonna be well over 100."
Even though North Korea was not part of the
eastern bloc and it’s collective defense
treaty knows as the warsaw pact.
As a socialist state, China and the Soviet
Union naturally have always been it’s strongest
allies.
In the 1950s, the North Koreans asked them
for help in developing their own nuclear weapons,
but both countries refused.
The soviets did however help the North Koreans
in building their first nuclear research reactor.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the
alliance became almost worthless at a stroke
and the North Koreans saw the threat of their
country being absolutely powerless against
the outside.
They then used the reactor to reprocess plutonium
to create nuclear weapons.
And they announced to leave the Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons Treaty that allowed international
observers to inspect the countries reactors.
Ever since, there have been 4 different US
presidents in power and all of them tried
different approaches in keeping North Korea
from developing nuclear weapons.
In Order to keep the North Koreans from leaving
the Treaty on Non-Proliferation, Bill Clinton
offered to in return suspend some of the military
exercises done by the US army together with
South Korea.
The North Koreans accepted to negotiate, and
both countries worked out an Agreed Framework.
The main ingredient of this deal was for the
North Koreans to shut down their Yongbon reactor.
Which they officially used as an energy reactor,
but was not connected to the power grid and
was suspected to be used to create Plutonium.
According to the Framework, the reactor should
be replaced by two light-water reactors and
as a compensation for the theoretical loss
in shutting down the Yongbon reactor, the
Koreans were promised 500 thousand tons of
heavy fuel-oil each year.
And the Clinton administration was open to
accepting and recognizing North Korea in case
of implementation of the full framework.
"The united states and international inspectors
will carefully monitor North Korea to make
sure it keeps its commitments.
Only as it does so will North Korea fully
join the community of Nations."
But Implementation of the Agreement was slow.
Intelligence findings revealed that North
Korea had violated the deal and started working
on another method of developing nuclear material
through uranium enrichment.
The new incoming President was opposed to
the Agreement reached by his successor.
When George Bush became President he went
for a much harder course.
In his first State of the Union Adress in
January 2000, he put North Korea on the Axis
of Evil, rendering them as an enemy of the
US.
"States like these and their terrorist allies
constitute an Axis of Evil arming to threaten
the peace of the world."
His administration terminated the supply of
fuel-oil and the North Koreans responded by
kicking out International Observers and resuming
their weapon programs.
And they left the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty in 2003, which freed them from any
foreign controls on their nuclear sites.
The bush administration was under pressure
to react and started to negotiate again with
the Six-Party-Talks.
Many of the things that were essential to
Clintons Agreed Framework of 1994 were now
re-negotiated.
The talks didn’t lead to results - and the
US made heavy concessions in order to convince
the North Koreans to stop their nuclear tests.
So when Barack Obama came into office he wanted
to turn around that policy.
His approach was quickly dubbed Strategic
Patience.
In the hope of reducing tension, the administration
waited out North Korea.
Neither threatening as aggressively as Bush
did, nor engaging in talks and negotiations.
"The fact that before I came into office you
had a pattern in which North Korea would engage
in some provocative action.
Countries would then try to placate them by
giving humanitarian aid or providing other
concessions or engaging in dialog."
However Obamas approach didn’t stop the
North Koreans from further improving their
missiles.
And when Donald Trump came into office, the
US foreign approach in dealing with North
Korea was once again turned around completely.
"I will not repeat the mistakes of past administrations
that got us into this very dangerous position."
Trump wants to completely isolate North Korea
and he is engaging in a sort of war or words,
tweeting out threats to Kim Jong Un.
Because of its smallness and economic weakness
- North Korea sees its nuclear program as
the only way to secure lasting independence.
The regime knows that despite their troop
strength it’s militarily is inferior to
that of it’s neighbors
Dr. Victor Cha, who wa the Head of the american
delegation at the Six Party Talks, said that
the North Koreans themself explained this
to him during the negotiations.
"And he said this without even blinking he
said: You attacked Iraq because they didn't
have nuclear weapons.
You attacked Afghanistan because they didn't
have nuclear weapons.
You will never attack Iran.
And you will never attack us."
Now North Korean testing is more than just
a show for the outside.
They have been able to steadily increase the
range of their missiles in the last few decades.
It is unclear how reliable these missiles
really are.
While one challenge is to increase the missiles
range and accuracy in hitting targets - they
also have to be able to withstand re-entry
into the atmosphere.
And they have to carry the weight and size
of a nuclear warhead.
So there are a lot of unclear variables that
make it hard to form an accurate judgement
on what North Korea is currently capable of
doing.
Yet, North Korea is already trying to change
the situation with what we know they can do.
"They want to decouple the Security of South
Korea from the United States and Japan.
By being able to reach the continent of the
United States the North Koreans want to instill
doubt in the minds of South Koreans, Americans
and Japanese that the United States and Japan
are not willing to risk Tokyo or Los Angeles
or Chicago in order to defend Seoul."
Interestingly though, while North Korea's
relationship with the United States is even
more tense than before, North Korea and South
Korea have recently come closer again.
At the Olympic Winter Games in South Korea,
the two countries walked in together at the
opening ceremony and have put together one
combined Korean ice hockey team.
And along the games, South Korean President
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un's sister met for
a diplomatic meeting.
There she invited the President to a meeting
with Kim Jong Un in North Koreas capital Pyongyang.
We will have to see whether a future dialogue
will this time bring real disarmament and
demilitarization, or whether the talks will
not lead to results like in the previous attempts.
It is clear though that we are in a deciding
decade for North Korea and that the coming
developments will have a big impact on the
peninsula - one way, or the other.
