The Corbett Report Presents:
Global Warming Minute
Why is the IPCC "95% Certain" that humanity is driving climate change?
In recent days you've probably heard ad nauseum that the UN's new IPCC report claims
that is 95% certain that human beings are causing climate change.
--95% certainty
--95% certainty
--95% chance
--95% sure
--are 95% certain
Ninety-five percent is a very specific number.
So where does it come from?
The IPCC uses a likelihood scale that assigns 'percentages' to various phrases.
Ranging from 'Exceptionally unlikely', 0-1% probability,
to 'Virtually certain', 99-100% probability.
This sounds like it is based on a precise scientific measurement
or well defined statistical process
but when it comes to deciding how likely it is that climate change is man-made,
this is in fact a subjective decision
that is made by the report's authors.
According to the IPCC:
"The approaches used in detection and attribution research
[...]cannot fully account for all uncertainties, and thus
ultimately expert judgement is required to give a
a calibrated assessment of whether a specific cause is responsible for a given climate change."
In other words,
The 95% probability that is making all of the headlines
is nothing more than an arbitrary number decided
on in closed door meetings between the report authors.
Still, it serves an important propaganda purpose in
giving a veneer of scientific credibility to the decision.
One that a media that never bothers to explain these decisions to you
thinks you will be too stupid to figure out for yourself.
--How sure are these scientists?
--They say about 95% certain
--and in science 95% is pretty darn certain.
So how reliable is the IPCC process in general?
That will be the subject of next week's report
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