.
MARK: HELLO AMERICA, I'M MARK
LEVIN.
THIS IS "LIFE, LIBERTY &
LEVIN."
WE HAVE A GREAT GUEST, GEORGE
GILDER, HOW ARE YOU?
>> GREAT TO SEE YOU, MARK.
MARK: I'VE READ YOU FOR YEARS,
MARK, WE'VE NEVER MET.
YOU ATTENDED HARVARD AND YOU
STILL ARE SUCCESSFUL.
THAT'S A GOOD THING.
>> I WASN'T SUCCESSFUL AT
HARVARD.
MARK: YEAH, YOU PIONEERED THE
FORMULATION OF SUPPLY SIDE
ECONOMICS WHEN YOU SERVED AS
CHAIRMAN OF THE INSTITUTE'S
ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE.
PROGRAM DIRECTOR FOR THE
MANHATTAN INSTITUTE, YOU'RE THE
AUTHOR OF MEN IN MARRIAGE.
VISIBLE MAN.
WEALTH AND POVERTY, WHICH WAS A
BIG BOOK THAT HAD A BIG
INFLUENCE ON ME.
THE SPIRIT OF ENTERPRISE.
MICROCOSM.
TELECOSM.
AND THE SILICON EYE.
AND NOW YOUR NEWEST BECOME,
LIFE AFTER GOOGLE, THE FALL OF
BIG DATA AND THE RISE OF THE
BLOCKCHAIN ECONOMY.
A LOT TO UNRAVEL HERE.
LET'S GET STARTED THIS WAY.
CAPITALISM VERSUS SOCIALISM.
EXPLAIN.
>> WELL, CAPITALISM IS --
DERIVES FROM THE LATIN WORD FOR
HEAD, KAPUT, AND CAPITALISM IS
THE MIND-BASED SYSTEM AND THE
KEY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE HUMAN
MIND IS THAT WE'RE CREATIVE,
AND AS ALBERT HIRSCHMAN, THE
PRINCETON ECONOMIST ONCE PUT
IT, OF CREATIVITY ALWAYS COMES
AS A SURPRISE TO US, AND IF IT
DIDN'T, PLANNING WOULD PREVAIL
AND SOCIALISM WOULD WORK.
CREATIVITY IS THE FOUNDATION OF
CAPITALISM.
AND THIS IS -- AND SOCIALISM IS
BASED ON PLANNING.
IT'S BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT WE'D ALREADY KNOW ALL WE
NEED TO KNOW IN ORDER TO PLAN
OUR FUTURE, AND SO IT LEADS TO
TYRANNY, AND THAT'S REALLY THE
DIFFERENCE.
LIBERTY VERSUS TYRANNY AS
SOMEONE ONCE PUT IT.
MARK: ISN'T THIS THE GENERAL
PROBLEM WITH PROGRESSIVISM,
ACROSS THE BOARD.
THAT IS THEY THINK THEY KNOW
ALL THEY NEED TO KNOW, AND NOW
IT'S JUST A MATTER OF
REDISTRIBUTING IDEAS,
REDISTRIBUTING WEALTH,
REDISTRIBUTING.
ISN'T THAT PART OF THE PROBLEM,
THAT'S EASY FOR PEOPLE TO
UNDERSTAND WHERE THE FUTURE IS
DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO
UNDERSTAND.
>> THE FUTURE IS UNPREDICTABLE
AND IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH IT
SUCCESSFULLY, YOU'LL HAVE TO
LEARN, AND LEARNING HAS A LOT
OF CONSTRAINTS.
ECONOMIC GROWTH IS THE INCREASE
OF KNOWLEDGE AND THE INCREASE
OF KNOWLEDGE IS LEARNING, AND
THE MOST WIDELY DOCUMENTED
PHENOMENON IN ALL BUSINESS IS
CALLED THE LEARNING CURVE, WITH
EVERY DOUBLING OF TOTAL SALES,
YOU GET A 20-30% DROP IN PRICES
OR IN COSTS.
AND THIS DROP IN COSTS IS
EVIDENT ACROSS ALL INDUSTRIES.
DOCUMENTED BY -- OF THE BAIN
AND COMPANY AND THE BOSTON
CONSULTING GROUP AND ALL THESE
LEARNING CURVE-BASE
CONSULTANCIES.
LEARNING IS THE HEART OF
CAPITALISM.
LEARNING IS FINDING OUT THINGS
YOU DON'T ALREADY KNOW.
AND THAT DEPENDS ON OPENNESS TO
CREATIVITY, TO SURPRISE, AND
SURPRISE IS REALLY CRUCIAL TO
CAPITALISM.
YOU CAN'T PREDICT PRODUCTS OF A
REALLY CREATIVE PROCESS.
MARK: SO WHEN THE GOVERNMENT
GETS IN THE BUSINESS OF
REGULATING THAT, OF
REDISTRIBUTING WEALTH, OF
PUNISHING SOME BUSINESSES,
SUBSIDIZING OTHER BUSINESSES,
AM I CORRECT IN HEARING WHAT
YOU'RE SAYING IS IT'S AN ATTACK
ON MANY THINGS BUT ESPECIALLY
KNOWLEDGE.
>> IF YOU -- A GOVERNMENT
GUARANTEE PROHIBITS LEARNING
AND THUS PROHIBITS ECONOMIC
GROWTH.
ALL ECONOMIC GROWTH IS
FUNDAMENTALLY LEARNING.
ALL WEALTH IS FUNDAMENTALLY
KNOWLEDGE, AS THOMAS SOLE
OBSERVED, THE NEANDERTHAL IN
HIS CAVE HAD ALL THE PHYSICAL
RESOURCES WE HAVE TODAY.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUR AGE
AND THE STONE AGE IS ENTIRELY
THE GROWTH OF KNOWLEDGE, AND
THE GROWTH OF KNOWLEDGE IS
LEARNING, AND THAT MEANS
ECONOMIC GROWTH IS PRIMARILY
LEARNING, AND LEARNING CAN'T BE
GUARANTEED.
LEARNING IS FINDING OUT THINGS
YOU DON'T ALREADY KNOW.
SO ANY GUARANTEE PROHIBITS
LEARNING, AND THUS PROHIBITS
GROWTH.
MARK: IS NOT THE GRAND IRONY,
THEN, THAT THE PROGRESSIVE
MIND-SET CLAIMS THAT THEIR
DECISIONS ARE BASED ON SCIENCE
AND KNOWLEDGE, WHEN, IN FACT,
IT'S NOT BASED ON SCIENCE OR
KNOWLEDGE, IT'S BASED ON
IDEOLOGY?
>> DEFINITELY BASED ON
DOCTRINE, AND DOGMA.
IT'S REALLY -- IN MY NEW BOOK
LIFE AFTER GOOGLE, I DO A
CRITICISM OF WHAT I CALL GOOGLE
MARXISM.
MARK: WHAT IS GOOGLE MARXISM.
>> MARX, HIS GREAT ERROR, REAL
MISTAKE, WAS TO IMAGINE THAT
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION OF
THE 19th CENTURY, ALL THOSE
RAILWAYS AND DARK SATANIC MILLS
AND TURBINES AND THE BEGINNING
OF ELECTRICITY REPRESENTED THE
FINAL HUMAN ACHIEVEMENT IN
PRODUCTIVITY.
SO IN THE FUTURE, WHAT WOULD
MATTER IS NOT THE CREATION OF
WEALTH BUT THE REDISTRIBUTION
OF WEALTH.
GOOGLE COMES BACK TODAY AND
SAYS THAT IT'S SEARCH ENGINES,
IT'S MACHINE LEARNING, IT'S
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, IT'S
ROBOTICS, IT'S BIOTECH.
IT'S THE ULTIMATE HUMAN
ATTAINMENT, AND IN THE FUTURE,
MOST OF US WILL BE ABLE TO
RETIRE, TO BEACHES WHILE SERGEI
BRYNN AND LARRY PAGE OF GOOGLE
FLY OFF TO REMOTE PLANETS WITH
ELON MUSK IN A WINNER-TAKE-ALL
UNIVERSE.
AND THIS IS A BELIEF THAT BILL
BUCKLEY USED TO CALL
IMMINENTIZING THE ESKATON,
FINAL THINGS, FINAL DAYS, AND
EACH GENERATION OF TECHNOLOGIES
IMAGINE THEIR TECHNOLOGICAL
VISION, WHETHER IT'S RAILROADS
OR SPACEFLIGHT OR ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE IS THE FINAL
ATTAINMENT, AND THIS IS REALLY
WHAT SOCIALISM IS ABOUT.
IT'S ABOUT SAYING THAT WHAT WE
HAVE NOW IS ALL WE'RE GOING TO
GET, THAT WE KNOW AS MUCH AS WE
NEED TO KNOW TO PLAN THE ENTIRE
FUTURE, AND THAT IS
FUNDAMENTALLY HOSTILE TO HUMAN
CREATIVITY.
MARK: THIS MIND-SET, THIS
GOOGLE MARXISM, IT CUTS ACROSS
ALL THESE PLATFORMS OR DOES IT?
FACEBOOK, TWITTER, HOW ABOUT
THE SILICON VALLEY?
YOU'VE REFERENCED THAT IN THE
PAST AS, I THINK, SILICON
VALLEY MARXISM, ISN'T THAT
RIGHT?
>> THERE ARE A LOT OF
PHILOSOPHERS AND PHILOSOPHER
KINGS IN SILICON VALLEY.
AND WHEN THEY PRONOUNCE ON
PUBLIC ISSUES, THEY IMAGINE
THAT THEIR TECHNOLOGY IS AN
ESCATTON, AN ULTIMATE THING AND
USURPS HUMAN MINDS.
MY FRIEND RAY KERSWHILE
INTRODUCED THE CONCEPT OF
SINGULARITY, THE MOMENT WHEN
OUR COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WOULD
EXCEED HUMAN MINDS ON ALL
DIMENSIONS, AND AT THAT POINT,
THE TECHNOLOGY WOULD PRODUCE
NEW MACHINES IN A CASCADE OF
INVENTIONS THAT LEAVE HUMANS
FAR BEHIND.
MARK: IS THAT POSSIBLE?
>> NO.
MARK: WHY?
>> BECAUSE THIS ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE IS A MACHINE.
AND REMEMBER, I STRESSED
SURPRISE.
MACHINES, IF MACHINES SURPRISED
YOU, THEY PROBABLY BREAKING
DOWN.
MACHINES ARE REALLY
DETERMINISTIC ALMOST BY
DEFINITION, AND DETERMINISM IN
INFORMATION THEORY, WHICH
UNDERLIES ALL OF SILICON
VALLEY, INFORMATION IS WHAT'S
NOT DETERMINED BY THE MACHINE.
INFORMATION IS THE CREATIVITY
OF CAPITALISM.
MARK: SO MACHINES HAVE MASTERS
CALLED HUMAN BEINGS.
>> MACHINES HAVE MASTERS.
CURT GIRDLE PROVED IN 1951 THAT
ANY LOGICAL SCHEME, INCLUDING A
COMPUTER, ANYTHING, IS
NECESSARILY DEPENDENT UPON
AXIOMS OUTSIDE THE BOX.
WHAT'S INSIDE THE BOX IS THE
MACHINE, BUT ANY MACHINE IS
NECESSARILY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
ALAN TURIN CALLED AN ORACLE.
A SOURCE OF CREATIVITY,
SURPRISE, OUTSIDE THE BOX.
MARK: CAN MACHINES HAVE
JUDGMENT?
>> NO, NOT REALLY.
THEY CAN REPEAT OR IMITATE
PROCESSES OF JUDGMENT SUPPLIED
TO THEM BY HUMAN BEINGS, BUT
EVERY SYMBOL THAT'S EMPLOYED IN
THE MACHINE HAS TO BE DEFINED
BY A HUMAN INTERPRETER, AND SO,
SO THE WHOLE IDEA THAT THESE
MACHINES SHUFFLING SYMBOLS
ACTUALLY HAVE MEANING WITHOUT
HUMAN PROVIDERS IS ITSELF
DELUSIONAL, AND I THINK IT'S
REALLY IRONIC THAT ALL THESE
BRILLIANT COMPUTER SCIENTISTS
OF SILICON VALLEY HAVE LOST
TRAFFIC THE VERY ESSENCE OF
THEIR SCIENCE.
THE ESSENCE OF THEIR SCIENCE
WAS BEGUN BY TURIN AND GERTEL
AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
REFUTED THESE ORIGINAL INSIGHTS
WHICH NECESSARILY MAKE
COMPUTERS DEPENDENT ON HUMAN
INPUTS.
MARK: SO IF WE UNDERSTAND
TECHNOLOGY, MACROTECHNOLOGY, WE
HAVE REALLY NOTHING TO FEAR, DO
WE?
>> NO, THIS IS JUST CONTINUED
EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMY.
IT'S NOT AS BIG A CHANGE AT ALL
AS BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND
FACTORIES IN THE 19th CENTURY.
THIS COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION OF
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WITH THE
FIRST MACHINES OF THE
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, EXCEEDED
IN IMPACT AND DRAMA THIS
INTRODUCTION OF ROBOTICS, WHICH
IS JUST KIND OF AN EXTENSION OF
ALL THE EXISTING ROBOTS THAT
ARE -- RUN OUR EXISTING
FACTORIES.
IT JUST -- AND -- BUT, ON THE
OTHER HAND, IT ISN'T -- IT IS
EXCITING, THESE NEW MACHINES
THAT ARE BEING GENERATED, AND
THEY WILL, LIKE ALL PREVIOUS
MACHINES INCREASE EMPLOYMENT.
HUMAN BEINGS ARE NOT EMPLOYED
BECAUSE THEY'RE UNPRODUCTIVE.
THEY'RE EMPLOYED BECAUSE THEY
ARE PRODUCTIVE.
AND SO MACHINES THAT RENDER
HUMAN BEINGS MORE PRODUCTIVE
RENDER THEM MORE EMPLOYABLE,
NOT LESS EMPLOYABLE.
THE FALLACY THAT THE A.I. IS
GOING TO DESTROY JOBS.
MARK: WHAT'S A.I.?
>> ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
MACHINE LEARNING, IS GOING TO
DESTROY JOBS.
EVERYBODY BELIEVES THAT.
IT'S NONSENSE.
ALL SUCH MACHINES ENHANCE HUMAN
CAPABILITIES, AND THUS, MAKE
HUMANS MORE EMPLOYABLE AND
BETTER JOBS AND MORE EXCITING
JOBS AND SAFER JOBS.
MARK: AND IMPROVE LIFESTYLES.
>> PARDON?
MARK: AND IMPROVE LIFESTYLES.
>> OF COURSE, IN A STEADY
EXPANSION IS OF KNOWLEDGE AND
WEALTH.
MARK: AND, OF COURSE, WHO
SERVICES THESE MACHINES?
YOU NEED ENGINEERS, YOU NEED
MECHANICS, YOU NEED WHATEVER,
YOU NEED PEOPLE WHO DEVELOP
SOFTWARE.
PEOPLE WHO DEVELOP HARDWARE AND
SO FORTH AND SO ON.
WHEN WE COME BACK, I WANT TO
ASK YOU SOMETHING ABOUT
CRYPTOCOSM.
THIS IS A BIG WORD THAT HAS A
LOT OF MEANING, AND YOU'RE
TELLING ME, BEFORE WE CAME ON
THE PROGRAM AND ABOUT WHAT
YOU'RE SAYING IN YOUR BOOK IS
GOOGLE WILL BE ONE DAY RATHER
PASSE, IN FACT, THERE'S GOING
TO BE TECHNOLOGY THAT LEAPFROGS
IT AND FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AND
THE REST OF THEM.
THIS IS FASCINATING.
>>> LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, DON'T
FORGET, ALMOST EVERY WEEK NIGHT
YOU CAN SIGN ME UP ON LEVIN TV,
