.
MARK: HELLO, AMERICA.
I'M MARK LEVIN.
THIS IS "LIFE, LIBERTY &
LEVIN."
WELCOME.
>> NICE TO SEE YOU.
>> IT'S A GREAT HONOR TO SEE
YOU, PATRICK MICHAELS.
DOCTOR.
EXPERT ON ALL THINGS CLIMATE
AND ENVIRONMENT AS FAR AS I'M
CONCERNED.
LITTLE BIT OF YOUR BACKGROUND.
DIRECTOR OF THE STUDY OF
SCIENCE AT THE CATO INSTITUTE.
YOU HOLD AN AB IN SM, YOU HOLD
THOSE DEGREES IN BIOLOGY,
SCIENCES AND PLANT ECOLOGY FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO.
PRETTY GOOD SCHOOL.
Ph.D. IN ECOLOGICAL CLIMATOLOGY
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN IN MADISON, 1979.
PRESIDENT OF THE STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS, PROGRAM
CHAIRMAN FOR THE CITY OF
APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY OF THE
AMERICAN METEORLOGICAL SOCIETY.
SAY THAT FAST FIVE TIMES.
RESEARCH PROFESSOR AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA FOR 30
YEARS, AND GIVING EXPANSIVE
BACKGROUND THAT YOU HAVE,
GIVING THAT TO THE PUBLIC SO
THEY THAT YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT.
YOU'RE A CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR
AND REVIEWER OF THE UNITED
NATIONS INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL
PANEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
WE'VE HEARD IT ALL.
WHAT'S GOING ON OUT THERE?
>> WELL, SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
THE PLANET IS WARMER THAN IT
WAS 100 YEARS AGO ABOUT.
9/10th OF A DEGREE CELSIUS.
MARK: 9/10th DEGREE OF CELSIUS
IS THAT A LOT?
>> NO.
COULD NOT HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY
HUMAN BEINGS, WE HAVEN'T PUT
ENOUGH CO2 IN THE AIR, AND ONE
IN THE LATER PART OF THE 20th
CENTURY THAT SLOWS DOWN OR
DEPENDS WHOSE DATA YOU USE ONLY
TO RESUME WITH THE BIG EL NINO
THAT COVERED THE NEWS THE LAST
COUPLE OF YEARS.
THAT MEANS THAT PROBABLY HALF,
MAYBE HALF OF THAT NINE-TENTHS
OF THE DEGREE MIGHT BE CAUSED
BY GREENHOUSE GASES.
WHEN THE PLANET WARMED
BEGINNING 1976, THE TEMPERATURE
OF THE STRATOSPHERE STARTED TO
STOP, THAT'S THE PREDICTION OF
GREENHOUSE THEORY THAT'S NOT
INTUITIVE.
THE GREAT PHILOSOPHER OF
SCIENCE CARL POPPER SAID IF YOU
CAN MEET A DIFFICULT PREDICTION
WITH YOUR THEORY, YOU CAN
CONTINUE TO ENTERTAIN YOUR
THEORY.
SO THE THEORY IS RIGHT, BUT THE
APPLICATION OF IT IS WRONG.
IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AS WARM AS
IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE MAKING
SYSTEMATIC, DRAMATIC ERRORS
OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICS WHICH
IS 40% OF THE EARTH, AND IT'S
WHERE ALL OUR MOISTURE COMES
FROM.
ALMOST ALL OF IT.
MARK: LET ME STOP YOU THERE.
WHO DOES THESE COMPUTER MODELS?
>> GOVERNMENTS.
THERE ARE 32 FAMILIES OF
COMPUTER MODELS THAT ARE USED
BY THE UNITED NATIONS.
EACH GOVERNMENT SPONSORED.
AND ALL OF THEM ARE PREDICTING
FAR, FAR TOO MUCH WARMING.
THE DISPARITY BETWEEN WHAT'S
BEEN PREDICTED TO HAPPEN, WHICH
LOOKS LIKE SDMSHGS WHAT IS
HAPPENING CONTINUES TO GROW.
MARK: WE KNOW THAT FOR A FACT?
>> YEAH, YOU COULD JUST LOOK AT
THE WEATHER BALLOON
TEMPERATURES.
YOU CAN LOOK AT THE SATELLITE
TEMPERATURES.
YOU CAN LOOK AT SOMETHING
CALLED THE REANALYSIS DATA.
THEY BEHAVE IN CONCERT.
THEY'RE SHOWING THE SAME THING,
AND THE SAME THING IS A LOT
DIFFERENT THAN THIS THING.
HOWEVER, WE NEED TO CALL THE
SPECIAL COUNSEL.
MARK: SPECIAL COUNSEL?
>> YES, BECAUSE ONE MODEL
WORKS.
YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS?
IT'S THE RUSSIAN MODEL.
MARK: LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT.
SO ALL THE GOVERNMENT MODELS
ARE LIKE THIS?
>> YEAH.
MARK: THE RUSSIAN MODEL LIKE
THIS.
>> YEAH.
THE RUSSIAN MODEL HAS THE LEAST
WARMING IN IT.
MARK: THE RUSSIAN MODEL HAS THE
LEAST WARMING AND PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWS REALITY.
WHAT'S BEEN TESTED OVER A FEW
DECADES.
>> YEAH, CORRECT.
IF WE WERE RATIONAL ABOUT THIS,
THINK ABOUT THE DAILY WEATHER
FORECAST.
YOU WATCH THE WEATHER CHANNEL,
THEY GO THIS MODEL SAYS THAT,
THAT MODEL SAYS THAT, WE THINK
THIS ONE IS WORKING THE BEST,
WE'RE GOING TO RELY ON THAT.
WELL, FOR CLIMATE FORECAST
SHOULD BE USING THE RUSSIAN
MODEL BUT WE'RE NOT.
WE USE THIS BIG SPATE OF ALL
THE OTHER MODELS THAT HAVE THE
WARMING THAT'S NOT OCCURRING.
MARK: WHY ARE THE OTHER MODELS,
31 OF THEM, WRONG.
AND WHY DO THEY ALL GO THE SAME
DIRECTION, UP?
>> BECAUSE, THEY WHAT ARE IS
CALLED PARAMETERIZED.
THEY'RE ALL PARAMETERIZED, CAN
I TRANSLATE PARAMETERIZED IN
ENGLISH?
FUDGE.
THEY DON'T GET THE RIGHT
ANSWER, DON'T KNOW THE RIGHT
ANSWER FOR CERTAIN PHENOMENA,
SO WE ESSENTIALLY PUT IN CODE
STEPS THAT GIVE US WHAT WE
THINK IT SHOULD BE.
AND SYSTEMATIC ERROR THAT WAS
MADE WAS THE MODELS WERE TUNED,
AS IT SAID.
TUNED.
TUNED TO SIMULATE THE WARMING
OF THE EARLY 20th CENTURY.
BEGAN IN 1910, ENDED IN 1945,
ABOUT .45 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MARK, THAT COULD NOT HAVE BEEN
CAUSED BY CARBON DIOXIDE.
MARK: BECAUSE THERE WASN'T
ENOUGH.
>> WE HAD TO PUT ENOUGH IN THAT
THE BACKGROUND CARBON DIOXIDE
CONCENTRATION IS 280 MILLION
PARTS PER MILLION.
WHEN THE FIRST WARMING STARTED,
208 PARTS PER MILLION.
IF IT IS THAT SENSITIVE TO
18PPM CHANGE IN CO2 WE WOULDN'T
BE TALKING ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW
AND WE'D BE SWEATING BULLETS.
>> SO WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS MAN
MADE CARBON DIOXIDE THE LAST
CENTURY COULD NOT HAVE PRODUCED
--
>> EARLY 20th CENTURY.
MARK: COULD NOT HAVE PRODUCED
THIS HEAT.
SO WHAT DID?
DO WE KNOW?
>> NO.
AND THREE MOST IMPORTANT WORDS
IN LIFE MAY NOT BE I LOVE YOU.
IT MAY BE I DON'T KNOW.
I DON'T THINK ANYBODY REALLY
KNOWS WHAT KICKED OFF THAT
WARMING.
THERE'S LOTS OF THEORIES.
ONE IS THAT IT WAS THE FINAL
ESCAPE FROM A GOLD PERIOD,
MULTICENTURY PERIOD KNOWN AS
THE LITTLE ICE AGE.
THAT'S THE PLAUSIBILITY, WHY
DID IT HAPPEN THEN.
BUT WE DON'T HAVE A GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THAT.
BECAUSE WE FORCED THE COMPUTER
MODELS TO SAY, HUMAN INFLUENCE,
CO2 AND OTHER STUFF.
WE MADE THE MODELS TOO
SENSITIVE, AND SO THAT'S WHY
WHEN YOU GET TO THE LATE 20th
CENTURY, ALL OF A SUDDEN
THEY'RE WARMING UP LIKE CRAZY
AND THE REALITY IS DOWN HERE.
IT WAS GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN.
THIS WAS REVEALED IN SCIENCE
MAGAZINE IN LATE 2016, AND
THERE WAS A PAPER PUBLISHED BY
A FRENCH CLIMATE MODELER CALLED
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CLIMATE
MODEL TUNING.
AND IN IT, HE SPEAKS OF
PARAMETERIZING.
WE COULD SAY FUDGING, THE
MODELS TO GIVE, HIS WORDS, AN
ANTICIPATED ACCEPTABLE RANGE OF
RESULTS.
SO IT'S THE SCIENTIST, NOT THE
SCIENCE THAT'S DETERMINING HOW
MUCH IT'S GOING TO WARM.
LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THIS,
BUT IT HAPPENS TO BE TRUE, AND
YOU KNOW, WE COULD SPECULATE AS
TO WHY THAT PAPER WAS PUBLISHED
RIGHT BEFORE THE 2016 ELECTION?
I WOULDN'T WANT TO IMPUTE
CAUSATION, BUT GEE --
MARK: BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU
ABOUT CAUSATION.
>> SURE.
MARK: HAVE YOU 31 GOVERNMENTS.
>> THE 31 DIFFERENT MODELS.
>> 31 DIFFERENT MODELS.
MULTIPLE GOVERNMENTS.
>> RIGHT.
MARK: FUDGING THE NUMBERS?
>> NOT FUDGING THEM
PARAMETERIZING.
MARK: YOU USED THE WORD
FUDGING.
DOES OUR EPA DO THAT?
DOES NASA DO THAT?
WHO DOES THAT FOR US?
>> GOOD QUESTION, MARK, BECAUSE
THE EPA WAS TOLD BY THE SUPREME
COURT IN 2007 THAT IF IT FOUND
THE CARBON DIOXIDE ENDANGERED
HUMAN HEALTH AND WELFARE, THAT
IT HAD THE POWER TO REGULATE IT
UNDER THE CLEAN AIR ACT.
MARK: THIS IS THE
MASSACHUSETTS.
>> THE EPA.
WELL, THEY PRODUCED AN
ENDANGERMENT FINDING, 2009, AND
THE ENDANGERMENT FINDING FOR
PROSPECTIVE CLIMATE IS 100%, I
DIDN'T SAY 90%.
I SAID 100% BASED ON THOSE
MODELS.
SO IF YOU CAN DEMONSTRATE THAT
THOSE MODELS SYSTEMATICALLY ARE
NOT WORKING, YOU CAN TAKE DOWN
THE ENDANGERMENT FINDING, AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BASIS FOR ALL
THOSE POLICIES THAT CAME OUT OF
THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.
MARK: WHICH WOULD MEAN YOU
DON'T GET TO REGULATE --
>> ABSOLUTELY.
MARK: -- CARBON DIOXIDE.
>> ABSOLUTELY, THE ENDANGERMENT
FINDING IS THE HEART OF THE
MATTER.
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA HOW GUNG HO
THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WAS ON
THIS ISSUE.
IF YOU LISTEN TO HIS FIRST
INAUGURAL SPEECH, JANUARY 20,
2009, IT'S SECOND SUBSTANTIVE
PARAGRAPH OF THE SPEECH IS
ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, AFTER
HEALTH CARE.
90 DAYS AFTER HE FINISHED THAT
SPEECH, HIS EPA PRODUCED A
PRELIMINARY FINDING OF
ENDANGERMENT FROM CARBON
DIOXIDE.
THEY WERE WORKING ON THIS
BEFORE HE WAS PRESIDENT,
BUREAUCRATS CAN'T WORK THAT
FAST, AND THEN THE FINAL
FINDING WAS MADE IN DECEMBER
FOR THE CLIMATE CONFERENCE IN
COPENHAGEN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING.
MARK: SO YOU'RE TELLING US THAT
WE HAVE A MASSIVE BIT OF PUBLIC
POLICY THAT HAS ENORMOUS EFFECT
ON SOCIETY THAT'S BUILT ON --
I'LL USE MY WORDS, PHONY
MODELS.
>> BUILT ON A HOUSE OF CARDS.
MODELS REALLY DON'T WORK.
IF I COULD REALLY BE ARCANE, I
COULD EXPLAIN THE MECHANISM AS
TO WHY THEY DON'T WORK.
MARK: AS LONG AS I UNDERSTAND
IT.
>> THE MODELS SYSTEMATICALLY
PREDICT THAT AS YOU GO UP IN
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE TROPICS
WHICH ARE 40% OF THE EARTH THAT
THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD RISE
DRAMATICALLY AS YOU GO FURTHER
UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO WHEN YOU GET TO THE LEVEL OF
THE JET STREAM, THE COMPUTER
MODELS ARE PREDICTING SEVEN
TIMES.
I DIDN'T SAY SEVEN-TENTHS OF A
DEGREE, I SAID SEVEN TIMES MORE
WARMING THAN BEING OBSERVED.
WHY AM I BORING YOU WITH THAT?
THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
TEMPERATURE DETERMINES
PRECIPITATION, AND GUESS WHAT?
ALMOST ALL THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THAT WE HAVE AROUND US
TODAY IN THE HUMID WASHINGTON,
D.C., THAT COMES FROM THE
TROPICS.
SO IF YOU GET THAT VERTICAL
MOTION WRONG, DOWN THERE, YOU
GET ALL THE SUBSEQUENT
VARIABLES WRONG.
IT'S A FANTASTIC SYSTEMATIC
ERROR, AND AGAIN, THAT ALONG
WITH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT'S BEING
OBSERVED, THAT'S SUFFICIENT TO
THE CHEMICAL FINDING.
MARK: TO THE AVERAGE PEDESTRIAN
LIKE ME, IF YOU GET THAT WRONG,
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
YOU GET THE WEATHER MODELS
WRONG?
>> THE SUBSEQUENT WEATHER
WRONG.
THAT'S WHY, IF YOU LOOK AT ALL
THESE FAMILIES OF MODELS, THEY
PREDICT RADICALLY DIFFERENT
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FROM
MODEL TO MODEL.
WELL, PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY GOT
THE PRECIPITATION
INITIALIZATION OUT OF TROPICS
WRONG.
PRECIPITATION IS IMPORTANT.
I OFFER YOU WILMINGTON, NORTH
CAROLINA, IF AN EXAMPLE
PRECIPITATION IS IMPORTANT
COMING FROM THE TROPICS, GET
THAT WRONG AND YOU GET THAT
THING.
>> IS WEATHER GETTING WORSE?
>> NO.
I LOVE THAT QUESTION BECAUSE
WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO LOOK
AT.
ROGER PILKE, JR., AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DOES.
THIS YES, THERE'S MORE DAMAGE
FROM WEATHER BECAUSE THERE'S
MORE STUFF AND PEOPLE AND
PROPERTY IN THE WAY OF WEATHER.
SO WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO LOOK
AT ARE WEATHER DAMAGES AS A
PERCENT OF GDP.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT THAT WAY,
THERE'S NOTHING WHATSOEVER.
I'M SURE HURRICANES ARE GETTING
WORSE.
I HEARD THAT ON EVERY LEGACY
NETWORK DURING FLORENCE AND
HARVEY AND ALL THAT STUFF.
WELL, FACT OF THE MATTER IS,
THERE'S A GUY BY THE NAME OF
RYAN MAUI, A HOT SHOT YOUNG
TROPICAL METEOROLOGIST, AND A
SCHOLAR AT THE CATO INSTITUTE.
HE TRACKS THE ENERGY IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONES.
SINCE WE GOT GLOBAL RECORDS
THAT BEGAN IN 1970, AND YOU
WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THAT
INTEGRATED ENERGY AND GLOBAL
WARMING AFTER ALL, IT'S ONLY
LOGICAL.
VICE PRESIDENT GORE SAYS THAT
MUST BE THE CASE.
IT'S NOT.
THERE'S NO RELATIONSHIP
WHATSOEVER BETWEEN THE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY AND
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE
EARTH.
IT'S JUST NOT THERE.
NOW, WHAT -- WAIT A MINUTE, J
DOES OUR GOVERNMENT SAY THIS?
THEY SAID IT IN THEIR LAST
REPORT CALLED GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED
STATES.
THEY SAID, OH, THERE'S BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
HURRICANE POWER IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 1970 TO 2009 OR
SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
1980 TO 2009.
WAIT A MINUTE.
WHY DID YOU STOP IN 2009.
IT'S 2014 REPORT.
BECAUSE IF YOU TAKE THE DATA
AFTER 2009, THE INCREASE GOES
BACK TO WHERE IT WAS.
WHY DID YOU START IN THE MID
1970s, BECAUSE WE HAVE RECORDS
THAT ARE REALLY GOOD BACK TO
1920.
IF YOU LOOK AT 1920 TO 1950,
YOU SEE AN INCREASE THAT IS
EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE ONE
THAT OCCURS.
MARK: SO THE INFORMATION
THEY'RE PROVIDING US --
>> IS SKEWED.
IT'S SKEWED.
THEY'RE CHERRY PICKING.
MARK: HERE WE RELY ON THE
CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THEY ARE
HYPERPOLITICAL.
TONIGHT GET BACK TO THAT AS
SOON AS WE RETURN.
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