Mr. Wang Weiluo, thank you so much for accepting
this interview with Zooming In.
Today, we’d like to talk about flooding
in China and the safety of the Three Gorges
Dam.
I just saw the Chinese media report that the
Yangtze River basin has just experienced a
fifth flood, and that the Three Gorges Dam
has experienced the largest flood inflow since
the dam was built.
Does this mean that the most dangerous period
of flooding in the Yangtze River is over?
And is the Three Gorges Dam safe now?
So far we can say that this year's big floods
may be over, but the weather is fickle now,
and historically it has been that way too.
The floods usually occur in July, August,
and September, but they also occur in October.
So we can never say it is impossible.
Any time is possible.
For example, in 2008, when the water level
of the Three Gorges Dam first approached its
standard water level of 175 meters, there
was a sudden autumn flood, so they had no
choice but to give up on reaching that water
level and declare a failure.
So, there is a difference between the floods
in autumn and the floods between summer and
autumn.
It’s only that for the floods in autumn
and winter, people are less prepared, so sometimes
there will be great losses.
Well, that means the present danger has not
fully passed.
How much damage do you estimate has already
been done, and that’s saying, especially
to the agriculture in the Yangtze River basin?
Everyone is wondering, will this flood result
in a grain shortage for China in the future?
What do you think of this problem?
This year's flooding disaster is far more
serious than that of 1998.
I mean the loss.
There have been more losses than in 1998,
and one big issue in this year is that the
Chinese government has no money for disaster
relief.
In 1998, the central government spent a lot
of money on disaster relief.
In the Wenchuan earthquake, it also spent
a lot of money on relief.
At that time, people all over the country
donated money.
Hong Kong, Taiwan, overseas Chinese all donated
money to China.
There is no money this year.
For example, in Anhui Province, you can see
that the farmers in Anhui whose houses were
washed away can receive 20 thousand yuan from
the government for each family.
That’s for people whose houses were washed
away.
If the house is only flooded, it’ll be two
thousand yuan.
Therefore, the Chinese government's disaster
relief funds this year are very, very small.
This is one of the biggest features of the
year.
Ok.
For agriculture, since the water has soaked
the farmland, do you think there will be a
grain shortage in China because of this?
China's food shortage lies in its shrinking
farmland, and the Chinese government is constantly
falsifying data about its farmlands.
As you all know, Wen Jiabao's favorite phrase
is 1.8 billion acres of farmland.
1.8 billion acres is his red line.
The acreage has fallen to 1.8 billion on two
occasions already.
The statistics have dropped to this level,
and then it has been pushed up again twice
through the so-called farmland census.
Now they've changed the concept.
They’ve renamed it as basic farmland, saying
there are only 1.5 billion acres of farmland.
They changed the farm land concept to replace
the previous 1.8 billion-acre statistic.
So there does exist a grain shortage in China.
It's important to explain this concept of
food scarcity, because as these shortages
go, international agriculture organizations
are constantly changing this concept.
(A nation) should have the ability to provide
enough food for anyone in any area at any
time.
To deviate from this condition is regarded
as a food shortage.
So the grain shortage in China, which has
gone on in recent years, is nothing more than…
Since China has foreign exchange, and because
it has a lot of money, [it has] through the
import of grain from foreign countries, especially
the import of soybeans, made up for China's
grain shortage.
Many people don’t understand why China imports
soybeans and produces rice by itself.
It’s because China’s rice yield can exceed
6500 pounds per acre (6680 lbs/acre), while
soybeans just surpass 650 pounds per acre.
So in the statistics, the final reported statistics,
650 pounds of soybeans plus 6500 pounds of
rice is just over 3-and-a-half tons.
But you can produce 6500 pounds of rice per
acre and only 650 pounds of soybeans, so China
would rather use the same land to grow rice
over soybeans, which are thenimported from
abroad.
If China were to shut off trade and start
growing its own soybeans, and it would from
once again start growing soybeans on its own,
it would have to crowd out and use a lot of
land to grow soybeans, and then China's food
problem would be even more severe.
But China's food problem… would only be
considered a food crisis for some people.
For others, there will never be a food crisis.
You said that some people will suffer from
a food crisis.
Which group of people will encounter a food
crisis and which group will not?
For those with lower incomes.
For the person with a low income.
When the price of food goes up, he won’t
be able to afford it.
It's a very simple idea, right?
During the so-called three years of hardship,
or the Great Chinese Famine, the only people
who went hungry were those with relatively
low incomes, the disadvantaged.
And what about those cadres?
They never went hungry.
They don't know what it means to be hungry.
Do you think that due to the floods this year,
large groups of people in China will not be
able to afford food?
This Chinese grain reduction, this year's
grain reduction has in fact already taken
shape, but you’ll never see it on the figures
of China’s Bureau of Statistics.
Since it won’t show up, (China) will make
up for it by buying a lot of grain.
If the Chinese government has enough foreign
currency, it will use this method to make
up for its food shortage.
That is to say, as long as China still has
foreign currency reserves, it won’t run
into a large scale grain shortage, because
it can import enough grain.
Right, there will not be a large grain shortage
in China.
But if the Chinese government runs into a
situation similar to the Great Chinese Famine,
and does not spend money on grain, and instead
spends money on things like equipment, or
cement and steel for the Sanmenxia Dam on
the Yellow River, then some people in China
will go hungry.
Or they’ll call it “rationing food".
Well.
Let's go back to the Three Gorges Dam, because
this time, although the largest floods have
passed, which means the greatest danger has
also passed, the potential danger of the Three
Gorges Dam still remains.
Since you are an expert in this field, could
you explain to us the potential dangers of
the Three Gorges Dam?
When we talk about the risks of the Three
Gorges Dam, especially the risks of the dam
collapsing, we'll discuss five main points.
The first is that in the event of a military
conflict, the Three Gorges Dam would collapse.
The second is the safety of the Three Gorges
Dam in the event of a terrorist attack.
Not necessarily terrorist groups, but also
individual actors, which China calls "lone
wolves"; The third is the risk of a collapse
in the event of natural disasters, such as
heavy rain, earthquakes, debris flow, rockfalls
and surging waves.
It’s the situation where there are multiple
natural disasters.
The fourth is the problem caused by the construction
quality of the Three Gorges Dam project.
That includes the construction quality of
this project and the mistakes in its design.
That's the fourth.
The fifth aspect is the risk of a dam break
caused by errors in the operation of the Three
Gorges Reservoir, especially from joint operation.
So let's talk about the problems from these
five points.
So most of the talk was about the risk of
dam failure during wartime conditions.
In 1992, when the National People's Congress
passed the Motion on the Three Gorges Project,
Vice Premier Zou Jiahua made a speech explaining
the civil air defense safety of the Three
Gorges Dam.
He also said at the time that the dam would
certainly be a target of an enemy attack.
In terms of civil air defense security, the
main supporters and opponents of the Three
Gorges Project have a great deal of consensus.
For example, the Three Gorges Dam will certainly
be the enemy’s first target.
There is little debate between the two sides
on this point.
Second, there is no disagreement that the
failure of the Three Gorges Dam will be most
severe.
What is the difference then?
The difference is, and this was put forward
during the three Gorges project demonstration,
that [the beginning of a] modern war has telltale
signs that can be observed.
[It would take] the Three Gorges Dam 14 days,
or later reduced to 10 days, then reduced
to seven days.
It was said it would take this long to discharge
145 meters, 130 meters of water from the Three
Gorges reservoir, or even to discharge all
the water.
So, by then, the Three Gorges Dam will be
safe.
He was taking the idea that we could see when
the war was going to happen, and we'd discharge
the water then.
The opponents of the Three Gorges Project
said that the claim was not well established,
because modern war has surprise attacks, [it
can be] a sudden war.
You won't know when the enemy will attack
you.
So with the Three Gorges Dam, even if you
know somebody is going to attack you, or you
are going to attack others, you have to discharge
all the water first, by which you’ll give
your enemy a signal.
So there was a military critic named Yang
Lang who wrote an article called "The Sword
of Damocles".
The article said, after building the three
Gorges Dam, it’s just like we are playing
a game of chess.
We have lost the element of surprise.
During his recent inspection tour in Anhui
province, Xi Jinping said that we should use
this element of surprise, but the Three Gorges
Dam project has deprived the Chinese army
of any surprise in its military strategy.
So recently, China has been clamouring to
reunite Taiwan by force, and Hu Xijin has
said that China could take Taiwan in just
one day.
Just one day to take Taiwan.
I don't know if what Hu Xijin said about taking
Taiwan in one day refers to an attack launched
by China, or that China will tell Taiwan in
advance that they will strike, and to please
make preparations, and they will strike on
some day, giving Taiwan a time to prepare.
I’ll tell everyone that Zou Jiahua's report
on civil air defense safety of the Three Gorges
Project at the National People's Congress
on March 21, 1992 has now been revised, just
like the Sino-British Joint Declaration.
In fact, Zou Jiahua’s report in 1992 has
already become a history file, a historical
document.
It is revised now.
Now, after the revision, that paragraph of
"War has signs", "We have time to get ready
to discharge the water" has been deleted.
That paragraph is not on the Internet anymore.
You can see why the National People's Congress
of China changed a report, a historical document
written almost 30 years ago.
They completely changed the forecast from
that time.
That's the problem of war.
In China, on July 15, the People's Daily's
China Economic Weekly published an article
entitled "Three Questions for the Three Gorges".
There are many flashy claims in it, or what
China calls "golden words".
One of them is: the Three Gorges Dam is not
afraid of atomic bombing.
Even if an atomic bomb goes off, it would
only cause a few ruptures, as if several sluice
gates were openned.
However, studies on the feasibility of the
Three Gorges Project show that if an atomic
bomb hit the Three Gorges Dam, there would
be breaches 200, 400, 700, 1000 meters, or
even all the way to the foundation of the
dam.
Some time ago, we saw some videos online about
the [potential] flooding downstream in [the
city of] Yichang and even Wuhan after the
dam break of the dam.
What were the numbers, such as the flooding
after a dam break?
What were its assumptions?
That's all from the feasibility report by
the Three Gorges Project.
These Numbers are all credible.
[A report] was conducted by The Yangtze River
Water Resources Commission, which included
all the designs and reasoning for those design,
a series of more than ten books.
In the books, I’m sure, you’ll find the
modelling of the collapse of the dam.
For this collapse model, it was titled as
“Experimental Study of the Dam Collapse.”
The entire section was all about this one
topic, everything.
So, in that collapse video, its basic numbers
come from those figures in the report.
It doesn’t go without reasons, does it?
It is not a baseless claim.
So, those Chinese experts believed that the
risks of the dam collapsing are realistic.
That explains why they included them in the
study.
Is that so?
In your opinion, if the dangers were only
imaginary, or not so high, do you think they
would include them in the report?
At that time both the supporters and the opposition
acknowledged [the dangers].
If...In a wartime scenario, the dam is doomed
to collapse.
A body of researchers led by General Zhang
Aiping drew those conclusions after years
of research and studies on models.
Right?
These were the conclusions that they came
to.
The difference in this case was that their
preconditions were changed, they changed it
to the condition of assuming that the Three
Gorges Reservoir was without water, that it
was dry.
Then it would be meaningless to bomb a dry
reservoir, wouldn’t it?
Yeah.
The other day, I interviewed the former director
of intelligence at the United States Pacific
Fleet.
I asked him if the U.S. troops would treat
the Three Gorges Dam as a military target.
His answer was ‘Never,’ because millions
of lives downstream of the Yangtze River would
be in danger.
So, the U.S. military would never do that.
But, if, as you said, the water within it
were completely discharged, the downstream
area would not be much affected even if it
were destroyed.
Is that correct?
There wouldn’t be any affect if all the
accumulated water was discharged.
But remember the Yangtze River is a golden
waterway, right?
If it is cut off, ships could no longer travel
along it.
Then China would be without their golden waterway.
If, for example, the river is like a vein
[in the body], if you cut off the circulation
to the vein, and no blood is flowing, right?
How would you improve your economy?
This...this is what Xi Jinping relies on to
prop up the growth of the reaches of the Yangtze
River.
There is another thing.
In 1969, a military conflicts occurred between
China and the Soviet Union related to their
borders.
The soviets had planned to teach China a lesson,
using nuclear weapons.
Beijing’s Miyun Reservoir and Guanting Reservoir
were both targets of the Soviet Union military,
targets for nuclear weapons.
So the CCP leadership began departing in succession,
leaving Beijing.
It seemed only Zhou Enlai stayed at Beijing’s
West Mount.
Mao Zedong fled to Hunan province.
All of them hid themselves.
At that time, they discharged all of the water
from both of the reservoirs.
Now comes the problem which is of utmost importance:
China has always been shouting about unifying
Taiwan by force, right?
They want to unify Taiwan by force, and on
top of it, the time [they say] for reunifying
Taiwan is getting shorter and shorter, from
7 days, 3 days, 2 days, down to 1 day, as
Hu Xijin said he was prepared to drink coffee
at the Presidential Office when Taiwan is
taken over within one day, didn’t he?
So, if China wants to do this, it means China
will be the first to fire, to attack Taiwan.
Would any warning sign occur before the war?
Can we have a message for Taiwan: now we’re
going to discharge the reservoir water, so
make all of the necessary preparations?
That’s why military critic Yang Lang declared
in his article titled “The High Dam: A Sword
Overhead China” that China would, strategically,
be in a passive stance everywhere since the
Three Gorges project was done.
It means China has lost what Xi Jinping calls
the “first strike” advantage.
There is no more of that.
You mean because they wouldn’t let Taiwan
know their true intention if they really are
getting ready to attack Taiwan.
So they wouldn’t discharge the Three Gorges,
because any attempt like that indicates they
are preparing for Taiwan’s counter attack
that could see the three gorges dam as a target.
It would be impossible for China to take over
Taiwan by force if it doesn’t resort to
a surprise attack.
So, in its plan, as Hu Xijin said, China could
defeat Taiwan within an extremely short time
so that it would be too late for the U.S.
troops to come over to assist Taiwan.
That’s his idea.
Also 
he cited a strategy of “taking over the
island of Taiwan at the cost of all its people.”
That shows they only care about the territory
and not the Taiwan people, even if they’re
all slaughtered.
So if you think about it, just imagine how
the people of Taiwan would fight back!
About 30 miles away from my home [in Germany],
there’s a water reservoir.
During World War II, this water resevoir was
bombed out by the British army.
At that time our city was a hub for German
heavy industries, which made tanks and explosives.
The British army’s reason for destroying
this dam was that they intended to cut off
its water supply.
On the very night of the dam collapse, more
than 1,000 residents downstream were drowned.
So, while in wartime no one will put importance…
on guidelines or rules.
During the Korean War, China’s People’s
Liberation Army did a similar thing, releasing
water from a reservoir to flood U.S. troops,
leaving them no time to evacuate.
Of course, for the U.S. military officers
in today’s case, they will never proclaim:
“We’ll be the first to attack China’s
Three Gorges with our guided missiles.”
Never.
Besides, Mr. Yang explained in his article
why the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam is
an enormous threat to the Chinese military.
All the reserve forces of the PLA are located
both midstream and downstream of the Yangtze
River.
As an example, over 90% of the Chinese military’s
airborne division is concentrated within this
region.
If the Three Gorges Dam is bombed, and all
of that water comes rushing forth, the Chinese
military would have its reserve forces wiped
out.
There wouldn’t even be a war to fight.
You know, as I mentioned, the ex-director
of intelligence at the U.S. Pacific Fleet
said the U.S would never bomb out the Three
Gorges.
Right now I’m thinking, perhaps, there is
only one scenario in which the U.S. might
do otherwise.
That is: China will be the first to use nuclear
weapons.
Doesn’t China often threaten the world with
using them?
If they dare to do so, would the U.S. have
that as an alternative?
If you go so far as to use nuclear weapons,
why wouldn’t I destroy your Three Gorges
Dam?
Let’s turn around this question and speak
from another angle.
In the project feasibility study for the Three
Gorges Dam, we can consider discharging or
not discharging the water, or even consider
a 14-day period for the water.
Why did the pros, at this time, argue that
the dam is safe?
The theoretical basis behind this argument
is unrestricted warfare.
Their statements are made from a perspective
that is different from yours.
If, they say, anyone attacks our Three Gorges
Dam, he’ll meet with our utmost backlash.
Though the world power’s nuclear weapons
outnumber ours, say, the former can destroy
the world ten times over.
However, ours can destroy the world only once.
[Their logic is] the impact of destroying
the world once and destroying the world tens
times is all the same in the end.
Therefore, the enemy won’t attack the Three
Gorges dam.
That’s it.
That is what’s really behind the thought
process.
So, this online article from not long ago
said… if the dam is attacked, China will
renounce its promise not to be the first to
use nuclear weapons.
Ok.
Based on what the former intelligence officer
said, it is highly unlikely that the U.S.
military would actively strike the dam, especially
while it is still holding water.
The reason is: that directly means the loss
of many millions of lives downstream.
But, what would the U.S. military do if China
chooses to be the first to use nuclear weapons?
It’s hard to say.
Actually, we’ll take this question of military
confrontation onward to the second question.
We want to say the Three Gorges Dam is not
as some experts have claimed, to be so firm
that it can withstand the attack of a nuclear
bomb.
The Three Gorges project has two primary vulnerabilities,
and one other smaller vulnerability.
The fourth vulnerativility lies in its frail
structure.
These four points, and they are fatal.
The first is the ship lift.
The ship lift can be destroyed by a single
anti-tank rocket.
That’s why Premier Li Keqiang had to send
4,600 troops to protect the dam.
If you aren’t afraid of atomic bombs, you
completely won’t be afraid of your enemy,
or terrorists, who have no nuclear weapons.
Right?
So what are you so frightened about?
You’re just spending the money to have 4,600
troops go and protect the three gorgesdam,
isn’t that just wasting money?
Spending citizens money, spending taxes, all
to do something with no use.
That
is to say, the dam is far more vulnerable
than they have claimed it is.
It’s a very vulnerable thing because when
you look at the when the three Gorges Dam
releases water, there is a row of 23 water
sluices.
We’re not saying that the three gorges dam
is riddled with problems, but it has more
than 100 holes, it is certainly not a solid
body, it has many holes.
