Okay, let's get now to new polling. Um, that
really tells us a lot about what we need to
know about electorial strategy in 2020. There
are some very good numbers for Donald Trump.
We're going to get to bad numbers for Trump
a little bit later. In the show, but there
are some really good numbers from Donald Trump.
Uh, those numbers are that 62% of his supporters
say there is nothing he could do even hypothetically
that would cause them to abandon Donald Trump.
For years, I've been explaining that most
of the voting public is not convincible. Now
this is on the democratic side and on the
Republican side in the sense that there's
some portion of the electorate that will always
vote for the Democrat, there is some portion
of the electorate that will always vote for
the Republican.
So the focus becomes turnout of the people
that are already on your side. And also focusing
on the small portion of people who are actually
willing to see reason and arguments and maybe
change their minds about who they're going
to support. Now, likewise, it's not just about
party because party applies to the presidential
election, the Senate, local elections, whatever.
Any individual president also has some solid,
unwavering, unchanging, unflinching base of
support regardless of what they do. Partially
typically because of, um, uh, things that
go beyond just politics, right? It could be
a cult of personality. It could be ideological
in some way, um, that that is less directly
related to policy, whatever the case may be.
So when we look at a presidential approval
number, like 40%, the floor isn't zero. I've
estimated that it's probably somewhere between
22 and 28%. And similarly, I've said for Donald
Trump, when his approval rating waivers between
35 and 42% as it mostly has during his presidency,
uh, that is actually a pretty significant
swing because I don't believe it could ever
go lower than somewhere in the range of 22
to 28% no matter what Donald Trump does.
And there was a new poll from Monmouth university
which finds exactly that. It finds that 62%
of Trumpists can't think of anything. They
can't think of a single thing, even hypothetically,
that Donald Trump could do that would cause
them to reevaluate their support for him.
So let's do some simple math. Um, in this
same poll, Donald Trump's approval rating
is currently 43%, 43% of the entire public
approves of the job that Donald Trump is doing.
That's extraordinarily disturbing. And it's
absolutely an indictment of of uh, the, the
population of the U S but let's just deal
with the number. 43% of the total public approves
of the job that Donald Trump is doing. 62%
of that cohort is about 26%. This is exactly
in line of what I've been saying for a year.
62% of Trumpists works out to about 26 or
27% of the total population who will never
abandon Donald Trump.
This is why convincing Trump is to change
their minds is a losing strategy. So at the
big picture level, democratic candidates should
lay out a policy that will appeal to people,
to Americans, period. If you lay out a policy
that simply makes sense for Americans, you're
going to pick up some Trump voters and some
centrist in whatever the case may be. But
as a strategy in the nitty gritty, our goal
is to get the vote out from people who are
already on our side. Because remember, nearly
two thirds of the Trumpists will never change
their minds, even if it's Donald Trump likes
to say he starts shooting people on fifth
Avenue. So two things I want to say about
this. This is very relevant to impeachment.
What I mean by that is impeachment will only
remove Donald Trump more quickly than voting
him out in November of 2020 which is just
12 months away.
At this point, if Trump truly loses the support
of the Republican party and we're only 12
months away away, we're probably coming to
the end of that window as well. Because remember,
Republican senators are tools. They are worthless
bottom feeders who put their fingers to the
wind and they're not going to do what is right
for the country. They are going to do what
is politically expedient if the Republican
base turns against Trump. Okay, Republican
senators might also turn against Trump, but
62% of Republicans are telling us that they
will never, ever, no matter what Trump does,
turn against him. Nevermind, by the way, that
normal people already would have turned against
Trump for what he's already done. 62% of Trump
is say they will never turn against Trump.
That means no impeachment. Republican senators
are not going to jump on the bandwagon, so
to speak, even if deep down they think it's
the right thing to do.
If nearly two thirds of Trumpists never get
behind impeachment, so it's time to really
start thinking about legacy here in a sense,
whatever age group you are in next year, an
election year, whether it's millennials, whether
you'll be 18 and it'll be your first opportunity
to vote in a presidential election, whether
you're a baby boomer, everyone, what is the
legacy of your generation going to be with
regard to what you did about Trump? Did you
support him? Wow. Wow. Did you stand aside
and allow him to be elected still not good,
or are you actually going to be a part of
the solution because 2020 is a potential inflection
point. Okay. Everything that has been building
Democrats taking the house in 2018 Democrats
with some big wins yesterday in state elections
in Kentucky and in Virginia, and one of the
narrowest defeats for Democrats in Mississippi
in the gubernatorial election.
In a very long time. This is all building
to a possible inflection point in 2020 and
there's two ways that it could go. Either
we start to pull back the insanity and go
back to something that makes sense or a little
more sense. Or do we go completely off the
rails into a lame duck? Trump that will be
further uninhibited. That will be more corrupt.
That will be more bribery. Russ, I don't know
if that's really a word. I know which side
I'm going to be on a, I hope most of you will
be joining me on that right side of history.
We will have a poll about this on our Instagram
page at David Pakman show follow at David
Pakman show on Instagram. By the way, while
you're there, um, I ha we've been having a
problem at my place with people using our
trash cans and I, uh, decided to take action
and concoct a little flowchart to help people
figure out if they should be using a my trash
cans.
I posted it to my instagramPage@david.com
check it out. We'll take a quick break and
a lot more to discuss today.
