DATA AND MODELLING TOOLS,
INCLUDING MODELS THAT WE USE TO
GENERATE A NUMBER OF FUTURE
SCENARIOS.
[SPEAKING FRENCH]
>> WE ARE USING DATA AND MODELS
TO GUIDE OUR DECISIONS, WILL
HELP TO GENERATE A NUMBER OF
FUTURE SCENARIOS.
>> SHARE WITH CANADIANS OUR DATA
AND MODELING AND HOW THEY GOT
OUR PLANNING IN ACTIONS TO
CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC AND READY
THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, WORKING
WITH PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES.
[SPEAKING FRENCH]
>> DURING THIS INFORMATION
SESSION, WE WILL BE SHARING WITH
CANADIANS OUR DATA AND 
MODELLING.
ARE BEING USED TO GUIDE OUR
PLANNING AND DECISIONS WITH
RESPECT TO MEASURES TO TAKE AND
CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC AND PROTECT
THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROVINCES
AND TERRITORIES.
>> WILL BE PROVIDED BY Dr.
THERESA TAM AND HOWARD NG, THE
CHIEF PUBLIC OFFICER AND DEPUTY
PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICER OF CANADA.
>> THE SESSION WILL BE PROVIDED
BY Dr. TAM AND Dr. HOWARD
NG, THE CHIEF PUBLIC HEALTH
OFFICER OF CANADA AND THE
DEPUTY.
>> IT WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
POSE QUESTIONS TO Dr.S TAM AND
NG SUPPORTED BY EXPERTS FROM THE
PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA.
Dr. NICHOLAS OGDEN, DIRECTOR
OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH RISK
SCIENCE DECISION, THE RESEARCH
AMERICA AND Dr. RACHEL,
SCIENCIVE DIRECTOR AND SENIOR
MEDICAL ADVISER.
FOLLOWING THE PRESENTATION,
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
ASK QUESTIONS TO Dr. TAM AND
NEW SUPPORTED PIE EXPERTS FROM
THE PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF
CANADA.
DEGREE NICHOLAS OGDEN -- Dr.
NICHOLAS OGDEN DIRECTOR OF
PUBLIC HALTERES OF COURSE
SCIENCES, RESEARCHER ON
MODELLING, AND Dr. ROCHELLE
RODAN, MAIN SCIENTIFIC ADVISER.
Dr. TAM, YOU HAVE THE FLOOR.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
GOOD MORNING:
[SPEAKING FRENCH]
SO WE ARE GOING TO TURN THE
SLIDE TWO.
WE ARE USING DATA AND MODELS TO
DIED OUR DECISIONS.
THESE MODELS HELP US GAIN AN
UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE WE ARE IN
THE EPIDEMIC AND WHERE WE MIGHT
BE HEADING.
WHILE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT, THEY
DO ALLOW US TO FORECAST
INFECTION AND ILLNESS RATES IN
THE SHORT-TERM AND EXPLORE THE
EFFECTIVES IN OF COMBINATIONS OF
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES FOR
CONTROLLING THE EPIDEMIC.
MODELS ARE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO
OUR ACTIONS.
DATA IN MODELS REQUEST HELP
CANADIANS SEE HOW A INDIVIDUAL
AND COLLECTIVE EFFORTS INCLUDING
STAYING HOME WHEN POSSIBLE,
MAINTAINING PHYSICAL DISTANCING,
SELF-ISOLATION, QUARANTINE, AND
PREVENTING THE IMPORTATION OF
INFECTION, CAN DETERMINE THE
TRAJECTORY OF CANADA'S COVID19
EPIDEMIC.
MODELS ESPECIALLY AT THE
PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL LEVELS CAN
HELP INFORM HEALTH SYSTEM
PREPAREDNESS.
[SPEAKING FRENCH]
>> Voice of Translator: DID ND,
GOOD MORNING.
WE ARE USING DATA AND MODELS TO
GUIDE OUR DECISIONS.
THESE MODELS HELP US TO GAIN AN
UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE WE ARE IN
THE EPIDEMIC AND WHERE WE MIGHT
BE HEADING.
WHILE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT, THEY
DO ALLOW US TO FORECAST
INFECTION AND ILLNESS RATES IN
THE SHORTT-TERM, AND EXPLORE THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF COMBINATIONS OF
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES FOR
CONTROLLING THE EPIDEMIC.
DATA AND MODELS CAN HELP
CANADIANS SEE HOW HOW OUR
INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE
EFFORTS ARE IMPORTANT FOR
CONTAINING COVID19 IN CANADA.
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE
MEASURES SUCH AS STAYING HOME,
PHYSICAL DISTANCING,
SELF-ISOLATION, QUARANTINE, AND
PREVENTING THE IMPORTATION OF
THE INFECTION FROM OTHER PLACES.
>> ILLUSTRATE A VERY IMPORTANT
CONCEPT.
OUR OBJECTIVE IS TO CONTROL THE
EPIDEMIC BY REDUCING ONWARD
TRANSMISSION THROUGH PUBLIC
HEALTH ACTIONS, TO PUSH THAT
BLUE CURVE DOWN.
WHILE WE BUILD UP HEALTH CARE
CAPACITY AT THE SAME TIME, TO
PUSH THAT DOTTED RED LINE UP.
WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS TO KEEP
THE BLUE CURVE BELOW THAT RED
LINE IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE
OVERALL TOTAL IMPACT OF THIS
EPIDEMIC AS FAST AS POSSIBLE.
>> Voice of Translator: DID
NGOO.
THIS SLIDE ILLUSTRATES A VERY
IMPORTANT CONCEPT.
OUR OBJECTIVE IS TO CONTROL THE
EPIDEMIC BY REDUCING UPON WARD
TRANSMISSION THROUGH PUBLIC
HEALTH MEASURES TO PUSH THE BLUE
CURVE DOWN.
WHILE WE BUILD UP HEALTH CARE
CAPACITY AT THE SAME TIME, TO
PUSH THE DOTTED RED LINE UP,
WHAT WE DO, WHAT WE WANT TO DO
IS TO KEEP THE BLUE CURVE BELOW
THE RED LINE.
>> SO HOW DO WE MAKE SURE THAT
EPIDEMIC DIES OUT?
BEFORE STRONG PUBLIC HEALTH
MEASURES WERE PUT IN PLACE IN
CANADA, WE ESTIMATED THAT EACH
INDIVIDUAL PASSED ON THE VIRUS
TO JUST OVER TWO ADDITIONAL
PEOPLE.
WE HAVE SINCE TAKEN A SERIES OF
CRITICAL PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS,
TESTING IN ISOLATION OF CASES,
CONTACT TRACING, QUARANTINE, AND
CANADIANS ARE PRACTICING
PHYSICAL DISTANCING.
THESE ACTIONS ARE HELPING TO
REDUCE THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE EACH CASE INFECTS BY
BREAKING THE CHAINS OF
TRANSMISSION TO THE POINT WHERE
EACH INFECTED INDIVIDUAL IS
TRANSMITTING THE VIRUS TO LESS
THAN ONE INDIVIDUAL ON AVERAGE,
THE EPIDEMIC WILL DIE OUT.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 4.
BEFORE PUP HEALTH MEASURES WERE
PUT IN PLACE IN CANADA, WE
ESTIMATED THAT EACH INDIVIDUAL
PASSED THE VIRUS ON TO JUST OVER
TWO ADDITIONAL PEOPLE.
SINCE WE'VE TAKEN A SERIES OF
CRITICAL PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS,
WE HAVE PUT IN PLACE A SERIES OF
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES THAT ARE
ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVE OUR
OBJECTIVE OF CONTAINING THE
EPIDEMIC.
FOR EXAMPLE, TESTING IN
ISOLATION OF CASES, CONTACT
TRACING, AND QUARANTINE,
INCLUDING RAISING PUBLIC
AWARENESS.
THESE MEASURES TOGETHER ARE
ESSENTIAL TO BREAK THE
TRANSMISSION CHAIN.
>> SLIGHT 5.
IN THE NEXT FEW SLIDES, WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE A LOOK AT WHERE WE
ARE WITH THIS PANDEMIC IN CANADA
RIGHT NOW.
NEXT SLIDE.
SLIDE 6.
SO THIS SLIDE SHOWS A SNAPSHOT
OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY AS IT
STANDS, AND IT IS ALWAYS
EVOLVING, SO THE NUMBER OF CASES
OR THE CASE RATES ARE DIFFERENT
ACROSS CANADA AND THEY ARE
CONSTANTLY EVOLVING.
THEIR EPIDEMIOLOGIC PICTURE
SHOWS THAT THERE ARE REGIONAL
DIFFERENCES, CERTAINLY WITH THE
BULK OF CASES IN FOUR PROVINCES,
BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA,
ONTARIO, AND QUEBEC.
ALL OUR PROVINCES AND
TERRITORIES, THOUGH, ARE
AFFECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NUNAVUT, THAT HAS NOT YET
REPORTED A CASE.
SO WE ARE ALSO TRACKING SEVERE
OUTCOMES INCLUDING DEATHS IN
LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES.
WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THESE
NUMBERS ARE BASED ON LABORATORY
CONFIRMED CASES, BUT WE KNOW
THAT IT PAINTS AN INCOMPLETE
PICTURE, AS MANY MORE CASES ARE
NOT FORMALLY DETECTED OR
REPORTED.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 5.
WE ARE NOW GOING TO LOOK AT THE
EPIDEMIOLOGY IN THE PANDEMIC
TODAY.
SLIDE 6.
THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PICTURE IN
CANADA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
THERE ARE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE BULK OF CASES BRITISH
COLUMBIA, ALBERTA, ONTARIO, AND
QUEBEC.
HOWEVER, ALL PROVINCES AND
TERRITORIES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NUNAVUT ARE RECORDING CASES.
THESE FIGURES ARE BASED ON
LABORATORY FIGURES AND WE KNOW
THAT IT PAINTS AN INCOMPLETE
PICTURE BECAUSE MANY MORE CASES
ARE NOT FORMAL REPORTED.
WE ALSO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF
DEATH IN LONG-TERM CARE
FACILITIES THAT WE ARE TRACKING.
>> SLIDE 7.
>> THE IMPACT OF THE VIRUS IS
LOCAL.
CANADA'S CUMULATIVE CASE CURVE,
WHICH IS IN THE PLAQUE SOLID
LINE IS AN AGGREGATE OF A SERIES
OF REGIONAL EPIDEMICS.
MANY FACTORS SUCH AS DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND PASSING OF
COMMUNITY SPREAD, FOR EXAMPLE,
THE TIMING OF MARCH BREAK, OR
CHANGES IN LABORATORY TESTS, AND
THE INTRODUCTION OF DIFFERENT
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES ON
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMELINES
REQUEST LEAD TO REGIONAL
DIFFERENCES.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 7.
HERE WE CAN SEE THAT THE IMPACT
OF THE VIRUS IS LOCAL.
THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PATTERN OF COMMUNITY SPREAD CAN
BE DUE DO MATTERS SUCH AS THE
TIMING OF MARCH BREAK AND THE
DIFFERENT PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMELINES
CAN LEAD TO REGIONAL
DIFFERENCES.
>> THIS SLIDE COMPARES HOW FAST
THE EPIDEMIC IS GROWING, IN THE
RANGE OF COUNTRIES.
FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES, EACH OF
THE COUNTRIES CURVE ARE LINED TO
DAY ZERO, THE DAY THE COUNTRY
REACHED 500 CASES.
CANADA'S EPIDEMIC, WHICH IS THE
RED CURVE, IS AN EARLIER STAGES.
THE LINE IS SHORTER THAN OTHERS.
THERE ARE THEN A SERIES OF
STRAIGHT DOTTED LINE WHICH SOME
OF YOU MAYBE ABLE TO MAKE OUT
WHICH SPEAK TO THE SLOPE AND
THEREFORE THE SPEED OF THE
INCREASE THIS CASES.
CANADA'S TOTAL CASE COUNT HAVE
BEEN INCREASING MORE SLOWLY THAN
MOST COUNTRIES.
WE CAN SEE THE NUMBER OF CASES
ARE DOUBLING EVERY THREE TO FIVE
DAYS, WHICH IS COMPARATIVELY A
POSITIVE TRAJECTORY.
PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE
LEARNING WE HAVE TAKEN FROM THE
EXPERIENCE OF OTHERS AND THE
APPROACHES THEY HAVE TAKEN.
THIS HAS ALLOWED CANADA TO ACT
EARLIER TO CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 8.
THIS SLIDE COMPARES HOW FAST THE
EPIDEMIC IS GROWING IN A VARIETY
OF COUNTRIES.
WE CAN SEE A CONSTANT
ACCUMULATION AND CHANGES AS
COUNTRIES PUT IN PLACE MEASURES
REFLECTING THE TRAGIC IN EACH
COUNTRY.
'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT THE
DOTTED LINE WHICH SHOWS THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE CASES
INCREASE.
WE CAN SEE IN CANADA THAT THE
NUMBER OF CASES IS DOUBLING
EVERY 3 TO 5 DAYS WHICH IS A
COMPARATIVELY POSITIVE
TRAJECTORY.
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN
CANADA HAS INCREASED MORE SLOWLY
THAN IN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES. 
THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE
LEARNING THAT WE HAVE DRAWN FROM
THE EXPERIENCE OF OTHERS AND THE
APPROACHES TAKEN.
THIS HAS ALLOWED CANADA TO ACT
EARLIER, TO CONTROL THE
EPIDEMIC.
>> I JUST WANT TO ADD ON THIS
SLIDE THAT THE CURVE -- THAT
CANADA'S LINE IS NOT A STRAIGHT
LINE OUTWARDS.
AS YOU CAN SEE, IT'S BEGINNING
TO BEND A LITTLE BIT, WHICH
MEANS THAT THE GROWTH RATE IS
SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE BIT.
SO IN THE NEXT SERIES OF SLIDES,
WE ARE LOOKING AT OUR MODELLING
SCENARIOS.
SLIDE 10.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT
MODELS ARE MOTTE A CRYSTAL BALL
AND CANNOT PREDICT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN.
MODELS HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT
COULD HAPPEN UNDER VARIES
SCENARIOS TO ALLOW US TO PREPARE
FOR THE WORST CASE AND DRIVE
PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS TO ENABLE
THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME.
MODELS ARE USED IN PUBLIC HEALTH
TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING ON
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURING AND TO
READY THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, TO
PLAN FOR AN EXPECTED NUMBER OF
COVID19 PATIENTS.
NATIONALLY, WE ARE ICING TWO
MODELLING APPROACHES.
FORECASTING AND DYNAMIC MODELS.
IN FORECASTING MODELS, WE USE
ACTUAL DATA ON THE CASES WE HAVE
SEEN IN CANADA TO ESTIMATE HOW
MANY NEW CASES WE MAY EXPECT IN
THE COMING WEEKS.
DYNAMIC MODELS ALLOW FOR A
LONGER TERM VIEW, USING OUR
KNOWLEDGE, WHICH IS EVOLVING, OF
HOW THE VIRUS BEHAVES.
IT HELPS US LOOK AT DIFFERENCE
QUESTIONS AND THE IMPACT OF
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES TAKEN
OVER TIME.
IT SIMPLY IS IMPORTANT TO
RECOGNIZE THAT ALL MODELS HAVE
LIMITATIONS.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 9.
SLIDE 10.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE
THAT MODELS ARE NOT A CRYSTAL
BALL AND CANNOT PREDICT WHAT
WILL HAPPEN.
MODELS PROVIDE A PREDICTION OF
WHAT COULD HAPPEN UNDER VARIOUS
QUESTIONS.
THAT ALLOWS US TO PREPARE FOR
THE WORST CASE AND TO DRIVE
PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION TO ENABLE A
BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME.
MODELS ARE USED IN PUBLIC HEALTH
TO SUPPORT DECISION-MAKING ON
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES AND TO
RAIDDY THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM TO
PLAN FOR AN EXPECTED NUMBER OF
COVID19 PATIENTS.
NATIONALLY, WE'RE USING TWO
MODELLING APPROACHES.
FORECASTING AND DYNAMIC MODELS.
FORECASTING MODELS IS ACTUAL
DATA ON THE CASES WE HAVE SEEN
IN CANADA TO ESTIMATE HOW MANY
NEW CASES WE MAY IN FACT EXPECT
IN THE COMING WEEK.
DYNAMIC MODELS, ALLOW FOR A
LONGER TERM VIEW USING OUR
KNOWLEDGE OF HOW THE VIRUS
BEHAVES.
HELPING US TO LOOK AT DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS AND IMPACTS OF
MEASURES TAKEN OVER TIME.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT
MODELS HAVE LIMITATIONS.
>> SO SLIDE 11.
SO THIS IS OUR FORECASTING MODEL
TO LOOK AT THE SHORT-TERM
EPIDEMIC TRAJECTORY.
THE SLIDE ILLUSTRATES THREE
POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES JEPP RATED
BY THIS MODEL, RECALLING THAT
THIS KIND OF MODEL IS BASED ON
REPORTED CANADIAN CASE DATA.
OUR FORECAST PREDICTS THAT WE
WILL SEE FROM ABOUT 22,580 TO 3
ABOUT 1,850 CASES PIE APRIL THE
16th.
PACED ON THE CASE FATALITIES
RATES TO DATE, THIS COULD MEAN
WE REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700
TOTAL DEATHS IN CANADA BY NEXT
WEEK.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 11.
THIS SLIDE ILLUSTRATES THREE
POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES, GENERATED
BY A FORECASTING MODEL AND
RECALL THAT THE FORECASTING
MONDALE IS BASED ON REPORTED
CANADIAN CASE DATA.
OUR FORECAST PREDICTS THAT WE
WILL SEE ABOUT 22,580 TO ABOUT
31,850 CASES BY APRIL 16th,
BASED ON THE CASE FATALITIES
RATE TO DATE, THIS COULD MEAN WE
REACH BETWEEN 500 AND 700 TOTAL
DEATHS IN CANADA BY NEXT WEEK.
>> SLIDE 12.
SO THIS SHOWS THE KIND OF METHOD
USE BID DYNAMIC MODELS.
DYNAMIC MODELS SIMULATE THE
EXPERIENCE OF INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE,
SO THIS IS A NOVEL VIRUS.
ALL PEOPLE ARE SUSCEPTIBLE.
SOME WILL BE EXPOSED AND THOSE
EXPOSED MAY BECOME INFECTED.
THESE MODELS ALSO INCLUDE
DIFFERENT STAGES OF THE DISEASE
FROM GETTING EXPOSED, THEN
INFECTED, BECOMING SYMPTOMATIC
AND THEN MAYBE HOSPITALIZED AND
THEN THE PATIENT RECOVERS OF
COURSE IS ALSO SOME SERIOUS
HEALTH OUTCOMES INCLUDING DEATH.
AND MODELERS WILL USE AS MUCH OF
THE SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION AS
POSSIBLE, WHICH CHANGES OVER
TIME, TO POPULATE THE PARAMETERS
FOR EACH OF THESE STAGES OF
DISEASE.
SO THE CONSIDERATION OF ALL OF
THESE FACTORS PRODUCES THE
MODELLING SCENARIOS, AND THE
DIFFERENT MODELLING SCENARIOS
PRODUCE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.
WE CAN ALSO INPUT MEASURES THAT
REDUCE THE SPREAD OF INFECTION
WHAT WE CALL MITIGATING FACTORS
AND OTHERS THAT COULD INCREASE
SPREAD.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 12.
DYNAMIC MODELS OF THIS STEP
NARROW.
DYNAMIC MODELS STIMULATE THE
EXPERIENCE OF INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE.
ALL PEOPLE START AS SUSCEPTIBLE.
SOME WILL BE EXPOSED, AND THOSE
EXPOSED MAY BECOME INFECTED.
MODELS ALSO INCLUDE THE
DIFFERENT STAGES OF THE DISEASE
FROM GETTING EXPOSED, INFECTED,
BECOMING SYMPTOMATIC,
HOSPITALIZATION, RECOVERY, OR
DEATH.
BUT CONSIDERATION OF ALL THESE
FACTORS PRODUCES MODELLING
SCENARIOS.
DIFFERENT MODELLING SCENARIOS
PRODUCE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.
>> SO SLIDE 13.
SO THIS IS AN IMPORTANT SLIDE,
AS IT APPLIES THE KIND OF
MEASURE THAT IS WE HAVE BEEN
PUTTING IN PLACE TO DATE TO SEE
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE MODELS.
A SERIES OF MODEL WERE
SYNTHESIZED TO GENERATE A NUMBER
OF SCENARIOS INCLUDING NO
CONTROL, SOME CONTROLS TO DELAY
AND REDUCE THE PEAK, AND
STRONGER EPIDEMIC CONTROL
MEASURES.
SO FROM THIS, WE CAN DISCERN A
RANGE OF THE POPULATION
INFECTED, WHAT WE CALL THE
ATTACK RATE, AND THE POTENTIAL
DURINGATION OF THE EPIDEMIC.
SO STRONGER EPIDEMIC CONTROL
MODELS THAT YOU SEE AT THE
BOTTOM HERE ON THE GREEN BOX IN
THE GREEN BOX, THESE STRONGER
EPIDEMIC CONTROL MODELS INCLUDE
A HIGH DEGREE OF PHYSICAL
DISTANCING, A HIGH PROPORTION OF
OCCASIONS IDENTIFIED AND A HIGH
PROPORTION OF CONTACT TRACE AND
QUARANTINED.
>> Dr. NJOO SLIDE 13.
THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT SLIDE.
AS IT APPLIES TO THE MEASURES
THAT WE HAVE BEEN PUTTING IN
PLACE TO DATE.
A SERIES OF MODELS WERE
SYNTHESIZE TODAY GENERATE A
NUMBER OF SCENARIOS, INCLUDING
NO CONTROL, SOME CONTROLS TO
DELAY AND REDUCE THE PEAK, AND
STRONGER EPIDEMIC CONTROL.
FROM THIS, WE CAN DISCERN THE
RANGE OF THE POPULATION INFECTED
AND THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF
THE EPIDEMIC.
>> SLIDE 14.
THIS SLIDE ILLUSTRATES THE THREE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT WE JUST
TALKED ABOUT.
THE RED CURVE WITH A VERY HIGH
PEAK OVER RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME IS A NO CONTROL
QUESTION OR THE WORST-CASE
SCENARIO WHERE THE MAJORITY OF
THE POPULATION COULD BE INFECT
GO AHEAD.
THE BLUELINE SHOWS A SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER CONTROLS, LEADING TO
THE DELAY AND REDUCTION IN THE
PEAK.
THE GREEN SMALLER CURVE IS THE
BEST CASE SCENARIO IN WHICH WE
REACH OUT OUR OBJECTIVE OF
EPIDEMIC CONTROL.
SO THIS IS THE SCENARIO WE'RE
WORKING TOWARDS, WHERE EACH
INFECTED PERCH ONLY TRANSMITS TO
LESS THAN ONE PERSON.
WE CAN STAY ON THE GREEN CURVE
BY ACHIEVING HIGH AND SUSTAINED
DEGREE OF PHYSICAL DISTANCING
AND AT THE SAME TIME A HIGHER
RATE OF CASE DETECTION AND
SELF-ISOLATION AND CONTACT
TRACING AND QUARANTINE.
>> Dr. NJO, SLIDE 14.
SHSLIDE ILLUSTRATES THE THREE
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS WE JUST
TALKED ABOUT.
THE RED CURVE WITH THE HIGH PEAK
FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME IS THE NO CONTROL.
THE BLUELINE SHOWS A SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER CONTROLS TO DELAY
AND REDUCE THE PEAK AND THE
GREEN CURVE IS THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO WHICH IS WE REACH OUT
CARB REACH OUR OBJECTIVE
EPIDEMIC CONTROL.
IN THE SCENARIO, WE'RE WORKING
TOWARDS A SITUATION WHERE EACH
INFECTED PERSON ONLY TRANSMITS
TO LESS THAN ONE OTHER PERSON.
WE CAN STAY ON THIS GREEN CURVE
ONLY BY ACHIEVING A HIGH DEGREE
OF PHYSICAL DISTANCING AND AT
THE SAME TIME A HIGH RATE OF
CASE DETECTION AND
SELF-ISOLATION.
>> SLIDE 15.
THE SLIDE SHOWS THE CUMULATIVE
SEVERE OUTCOMES, CRITICAL
ILLNESS RESULTING IN DEATH, FOR
THE THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
SO IN A GREEN BOX, THAT'S THE
GREEN SMALL CURVE, THAT IS THE
EPIDEMIC CONTROL SCENARIO, THE
BLUE BOX SHOWS THE WEAKER
CONTROLS AND THE RED BAR SHOW
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU HAVE NO
CONTROL, AND AT THE EXACT -- YOU
HAVE THE PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION INFECTED AND ON THE Y
AXIS THE NUMBER OF DEATHS.
SO THESE STARK NUMBERS TELL US
THAT WE MUST DO EVERYTHING THAT
WE EXAMINE NOW TO REMAIN IN THAT
BEST CASE SCENARIO, TO STAY IN
THE LOWER RANGE OF THE GREEN
BOW, WITH STRONG EPIDEMIC
CONTROL.
OUR COLLECTIVE EFFORTS, DESPITE
ALL OF THE HARDSHIPS AND THE
COST ASK CRITICAL, AS WE MUST
MINIMIZE THE POPULATION
INFECTED, THAT'S THE -- ON THE X
AXIS, IN ORDER TO KEEP DEATH,
ICU ADMISSIONS AND
HOSPITALIZATIONS AS LOW AS
POSSIBLE.
THE RESULT IN THE LEVEL OF
EFFORTS OF ALL CANADIANS FROM
OUR HEALTH CARE WORKERS ON THE
FRONTLINE TO PUBLIC HEALTH
AUTHORITIES TO ALL CANADIANS WHO
ARE PRACTICING PHYSICAL
DISTANCING, WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE WHETHER WE CAN REMAIN
IN THIS BEST CASE SCENARIO AND
ENSURE THAT OUR HEALTH SYSTEM
CAN COPE.
WE CANNOT PREVENT EVERY DEATH,
BUT WE MUST PREVENT EVERY DEATH
THAT WE CAN.
>> Dr. NJO, SLIDE 15.
THIS SLIDE SHOWS THE CUMULATIVE
SEVERE OUTCOMES, CRITICAL
ILLNESS RESULTING IN DEATH FOR
THE THREE SCENARIOS.
IN THE PREVIOUS SLIDES.
BARS IN PLAQUE SHOW NO MEASURES
PUT IN PLACE.
THE BARS IN BLUE AND THE BEST
CASE SCENARIO ARE IN GREEN.
OUR OBJECTIVE IS TO REMAIN ON
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO LINE IN
ORDER TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF
DEATHS WE MUST MINIMIZE THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE
AFFECTED AND HOSPITALIZED.
THIS WILL KEEP DEATHS AS LOW AS
POSSIBLE.
THE RESOLVE, THE LEVEL OF EXPERT
OF ALL CANADIANS FROM OUR HEALTH
CARE WORKERS ON THE FRONTLINE TO
PUBLIC HEALTH AUTHORITIES, SHOW
THAT IF WE PRACTICE PHYSICAL
DISTANCING, WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REMAIN IN THE BEST CASE
QUESTION.
WE CANNOT PREVENT EVER DEATH,
BUT WE MUST PREVENT EVERY DEATH
WE CAN.
>> SO BAR 16.
THIS SHOWS OUR COLLECTIVE
AMBITION ACROSS CANADA, WHICH IS
TO ACHIEVE EPIDEMIC CONTROL, TO
NOT ONLY MINIMIZE THE CASES AND
THE SEVERITY OF IMPACTS, BUT TO
MINIMIZE THE DURATION OF THAT
FIRST WAVE.
I JUST WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT
EVEN ONCE WE ARE PAST THE PEAK
OF THIS FIRST WAVE, AND ON THE
DOWN WARD TREND ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE CURVE, IT WILL BE
EQUALLY CRITICAL TO KEEP UP WITH
OUR CONTROL MEASURES.
IF WE LET UP NEW CHAINS OF
TRANSMISSION WILL TAKE OFF IN
OUR HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE
POPULATION, AND THE EPIDEMIC
WILL REIGNITE.
IF WE ARE TO NOT LOSE OUR HARD
WON PRODEPRESS, WE MUST STAY THE
COURSE UNTIL WE HAVE REACHED A
VERY LOW NUMBER OF CASES, AT THE
BOTTOM OF THAT FIRST WAVE.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH EPIDEMIC
CONTROL, WE ANTICIPATE THAT SOME
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES WILL NEED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO PREVENT
THE GROWTH OF FUTURE SMALLER
WAVES.
>> THERE NJOO, SLIDE 16.
OUR COLLECTIVE AMBITION IS TO
ACHIEVE EPIDEMIC CONTROL.
IT IS ESSENTIAL TO QUICKLY
CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC DURING THIS
FIRST WAVE.
HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THESE
MEASURES IN PLACE, WE EXPECT
THAT SOME PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES
WILL HAVE TO TAKE -- REMAIN IN
PLACE TO PREVENT FUTURE WAVES IF
WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE OUR
HARD-WON PRODEPRESS, WE WILL
HAVE TO STAY THE COURSE UNTIL WE
HAVE REACHED A VERY LOW NUMBER
OF CASES.
ONCE WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK OF
THE FIRST WAVE AND ARE ON THE
DOWNWARD TRENDING SIDE OF THE
CURVE, IT WILL BE EQUALLY
CRITICAL TO KEEP UP OUR CONTROL
MEASURES.
IF WE DO LET UP, NEW
TRANSMISSION CHAINS WILL TAKE
OFF IN OUR HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE
POPULATION AND THE EPIDEMIC WILL
REIGNITE.
>> SO ON SLIDE 17, SO WHAT DO WE
NEED TO DO NOW TO DETERMINE OUR
FUTURE?
NEXT SLIDE.
SLIDE 18.
SO TO KEEP ON THAT GREEN CURVE,
WE HAVE TO KIN TO IMPLEMENT THE
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES WE HAVE
PUT IN PLACE.
WE ARE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
TRAJECTORY, TO SEE IF INCREASED
MEASURES ARE NEEDED SO THAT WE
CAN CONTINUE TO AIM FOR THE
LOWEST POSSIBLE INFECTION RATE
TO BOTH MINIMIZE ILLNESS AND
DEATH AND TO SHORTEN THE
DURATION OF THE EPIDEMIC.
WE HAVE TO PREPARE OUR HEALTH
SYSTEMS, EXPAND OUR HEALTH
SYSTEM CAPACITY.
RECOGNIZING THAT EVEN IF
SUCCESSFUL, SOME PUBLIC HEALTH
MEASURES NEED TO BE SUSTAINED TO
REDUCE BOTH IMPORTATION AND
DOMESTIC TRANSMISSION.
THE EPIDEMIC IS NOT THE SAME IN
ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
SO THE CONTROL MEASURES WILL
HAVE TO BE READJUSTED AND
DEPENDING ALSO ON THE LOCAL
EPIDEMIC SITUATION.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW
CLOSE WE ARE TO THE PEAK FROM A
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE, HOWEVER,
WE ARE DISCUSSING WITH ALL CHIEF
MEDICAL OFFICERS OF HEALTH WHAT
MORE SHOULD BE DONE TO KEEP US
ON THE PATH OF EPIDEMIC CONTROL.
ONCE WE HAVE OBSERVED
SIGNIFICANT PRODEPRESS IN
GETTING THE EPIDEMIC UNDER
CONTROL, WE WILL STILL NEED TO
HAVE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TESTING IN
ORDER TO ALERT US TO ANY NEW
CASES OCCURRING SO THAT WE CAN
TRACE AND STAMP OUT ANY CHAINS
OF TRANSMISSION QUICKLY.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 17.
WHAT DOES OUR STRATEGY LOOK
LIKE?
SLIDE 18.
WE ARE TIPPING TO IMPLEMENT THE
MEASURES WE HAVE PUT IN PLACE
AND KEEP -- WE ARE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE TRAJECTORY TO SEE IF
IT INCREASES THE MEASURES ARE
REQUIRED SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE
TO AIM FOR THE LOWEST POSSIBLE
INFECTION RATE AND TO SHORTEN
THE DURATION OF THE EPIDEMIC.
RECOGNIZING THAT EVEN A
SUCCESSFUL, SOME PUBLIC HEALTH
MEASURES NEED TO BE SUSTAINED TO
REDUCE BOTH IMPORTATION AND
DOMESTIC TRANSMISSION.
THE EPIDEMIC IS NOT THE SAME IN
ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, AS A
RESULT, WHEN CONTROL MEASURES
CAN'T BE ADJUSTED, DECISIONS
WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCAL
EPIDEMIC SITUATION.
SOME REGIONS MAY BE ABLE TO
RELAX SOME MEASURES, WHILE OTHER
AREAS OF CANADA CANNOT.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW
HOW CLOSE WE ARE TO THE PEAK,
FROM A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE,
HOWEVER, WE ARE DISCUSSING WITH
ALL MEDICAL HEALTH OFFICERS WHAT
MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN TO KEEP
US ON THE PATH OF EPIDEMIC
CONTROL.
ONCE WE HAVE OBSERVED
SIGNIFICANT PRODEPRESS IN
GETTING THE EPIDEMIC UNDER
CONTROL, WE WILL STILL NEED TO
HAVE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TESTING,
AND THAT WILL BE IN ORDER TO
ALERT US TO NEW CASES OCCURRING
SO THAT WE CAN TRACE AND STAMP
OUT ANY CHANGE ALSO OF
TRANSMISSION QUICKLY.
WE WILL BE PACK IN THE COMING
WEEKS TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON
OUR PROGRESS AS THE IMPACT MUCH
OUR MEASURES BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT.
>> SLIDE 19.
SO IN CONCLUSION, WHILE SOME OF
THE NUMBERS RELEASED TODAY MAY
SEEM STARK, CANADA'S MODELLING
DEMONSTRATES THAT THE COUNTRY
STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC AND SAVE
LIVES.
WE CANNOT PREVENT EVERY DEATH,
BUT WE MUST PREVENT ALL THE
DEATHS THAT WE CAN.
WE ALL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE
FUTURE WILL HOLD FOR CANADA'S
COVID19 TRAJECTORY, WE MUST
CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE EPIDEMIC
USING TRIED AND TRUE PUBLIC
HEALTH MEASURES, INCLUDING
ASKING EVERY CANADIAN TO STAY AT
HOME WHENEVER POSSIBLE, MAINTAIN
PHYSICAL DISTANCING, METICULOUS
HAND WASHING AND COVER OUR
COSTS.
WHAT WE DO TOGETHER NOW TO STOP
THE SPREAD OF COVID19 WILL
REDUCE IMPACT OF THE EPIDEMIC
AND DETERMINE HOW SOON WE CAN
READJUST OUR PUBLIC HEALTH
MEASURES.
WHAT WE DO TOGETHER NOW WILL BUY
US MORE TIME TO FURTHER
UNDERSTAND THE VIRUS AND TO
DEVELOPMENT TREATMENTS AND
ADVANTAGES SEEPS.
VACCINES.
TOGETHER WE CAN PLANK THE
EPIDEMIC CURVE.
>> Dr. NJOO, SLIDE 19.
WHILE SOME OF THE NUMBERS
RELEASED TODAY MAY SEEM STARK,
CANADA'S MODELLING DEMONSTRATES
THAT THE COUNTRY STILL HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CONTROL THE
EPIDEMIC AND SAVE LIVES.
WE CANNOT PREVENT EVERY DEATH,
BUT WE MUST PREVENT ALL DEATHS
WE CAN.
WE ALL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE
FUTURE WILL HOLD FOR CAP'S
COVID19 TRAJECTORY.
WE MUST CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE
EPIDEMIC USING TRIED AND TRUE
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES SUCH AS
ASKING EVERY CANADIAN TO STAY AT
HOME WHEREVER POSSIBLE, TO
MAINTAIN PHYSICAL DISTANCING, TO
METICULOUSLY WASH THEIR HANDS
AND TO COVER THEIR COUGHS.
WHAT WE DO TOGETHER NOW TO STOP
THE SPREAD OF COVID19 WILL
REDUCE THE IMPACT OF THE
PANDEMIC AND DETERMINE JUST HOW
SOON WE CAN READJUST OUR PUBLIC
HEALTH MEASURES TO A NEW NORMAL.
WHAT WE DO NOW WILL BUY US MORE
TIME TO FURTHER UNDERSTAND THE
VIRUS AND TO DEVELOP TREATMENTS
AND VACCINES.
WE ARE THE AUTHORS OF OUR FATE.
TOGETHER, WE CAN PLANK THE
EPIDEMIC CURVE.
>> THANK YOU, DOCTORS.
WE WILL NOW OPEN THAT TELEPHONE
LINE AND THE FLOOR TO QUESTIONS.
WE ASK THAT YOU -- WE ASK THAT
YOU LIMIT YOURSELF TO ONE
QUESTION AND ONLY WIN FOLLOW-UP.
WILL TAKE 3 QUESTIONS FROM THE
PHONE, FOR THOSE ASKING
QUESTIONS IN THE ROOM, WE ALSO
ASK THAT YOU MAKE YOUR WAY OVER
TO THE FREE STANDING MICS OVER
TO YOU, OPERATOR.
[SPEAKING FRENCH]
THERE WILL BE A SHORT PAUSE
WHILE THE PARTICIPANTS REGISTER.
>> THERE WILL BE A SHORT PAUSE
AS PARTICIPANTS REGISTER.
>> THE FIRST QUESTION IS FROM
MARIEKE WALSH FROM THE GLOBE AND
MAIL.
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
>> HI THERE, THANK YOU.
Dr. TAM, I'M WONDERING IF YOU
CAN JUST ARTICULATE FOR US
SPECIFICALLY IF WE NEED TO BE
DOING MORE THAN WHAT IS ALREADY
IN PLACE PUBLICLY TO GET TO THIS
SORT OF GREEN AREA WHERE BETWEEN
11,000 AND 22,000 ARE PREDICTED
TO DIE OR IF WE ARE ALREADY
DOING EVERYTHING THAT NEEDS TO
BE DONE?
>> WELL, I THINK IN THE LAST
WEEK, A LOT HAS BEEN BEEN DONE
AND WE WILL WILL NEED TO MONITOR
EVERY SINGLE DAY THE EVOLUTION
OF THE OUTBREAK AND THE
TRAJECTORY SO THAT WE CAN
RECALIBRATE US AS NEEDED.
SO DEPENDING ON WHERE THAT CURVE
IS BENDING DOWNWARDS OR IF WE
NEED TO DO MORE IN ORDER TO
ENSURE THAT THAT IS WHAT'S
HAPPENING, SO IT IS A PRETTY
DYNAMIC PROCESS.
HOWEVER, WE ARE TRYING TO
IMPROVE ON OF AS SPECT OF OUR
RESPONSE AS WE SPEAK.
FOR EXAMPLE, WE ARE DOING A
NUMBER OF EFFORTS, DIFFERENT --
DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO EPP HANS
OUR TESTING, LAB TESTING
CAPACITY, FOR EXAMPLE, RIGHT
NOW.
BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT A KEY PART
OF OUR STAYING ON COURSE FOR
THAT GREEN ZONE ASK TO ENSURE
THAT WE ARE DETECTING CASES AND
WE ARE MANAGING CONTACTS.
SO WE ARE LEARNING FROM ACROSS
THE COUNTRY HOW BEST TO DO
CONTACT TRACING, TO TRY AND
ENFORCE THE HUMAN RESOURCES THAT
MIGHT BE NEEDED TO DO THAT,
LOOKING AT WHETHER TECHNOLOGY
CAN HELP WITH CONTACT TRACING.
THESE ARE ALL HAPPENING RIGHT
NOW, AND SUPPORTING PEOPLE IN
SELF-ISOLATION.
AND SO -- SO THE SHORT QUESTION
IS, YES, WE WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
THESE FRONTS TO JUST MAKE SURE
THAT WE STAY ON COURSE, BUT WE
REALLY HAVE GOT TO LOOK AT THE
DYNAMIC SITUATION EVERY SINGLE
DAY AS WE SPEAK.
>> AND IF I COULD HAVE A -- JUST
WANTED TO.
TO [TECHNICALDIFFICULTIES]
>> MISS WALSH, WE CANNOT HEAR
YOU.
>> YOU ARE CUTTING OFF, MARIEKE,
CAN YOU JUST REPEAT YOUR
QUESTION, PLEASE?
>> CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?
>> YEAH.
>> I'M WONDERING, FOR EXAMPLE,
WITH ONTARIO, DO YOU SEE ONTARIO
DOING THESE REALLY STRONG
MEASURES THAT YOU ARE TALK
APPROXIMATING AS BEING NEEDED,
GIVEN THAT THEY HAVE THE LOW
RISK TESTING, FOR EXAMPLE?
>> WELL, I THINK AS YOU HAVE
SEEN, A WHOLE SERIES OF
BRIEFINGS FROM ONTARIO, STACKING
UP ALL OF THEIR MEASURES, AND SO
I THINK WE ARE HERE TO SUPPORT
OUR NATIONAL MICROBIOLOGY LAB
AND THE AGENCY HEALTH CANADA,
OTHER DEPARTMENTS, ACTUALLY, ARE
RAMPING UP TO MAKE SURE WE CAN
ESCALATE OUR LABORATORY CAPACITY
IN THIS COUNTRY AS A WHOLE.
SO WE WILL BE SUPPORTING ONTARIO
WHENEVER THE NEED ARISES.
>> NEXT QUESTION, OPERATOR?
>> THANK YOU.
>> Voice of Translator: THE NEXT
QUESTION IS FROM Le Devoir.
>> I WOULD LIKE TO GO BACK TO
SLIDE 15.
FIRST OF ALL, I WOULD LIKE TO --
FOR YOU TO CLARIFY THE TIMEFRAME
FOR THOSE TESTS.
ARE WE TALKING ABOUT UNTIL THE
END OF APRIL OR UNTIL THE END OF
2021?
AND ALSO, I WOULD LIKE YOU TO
RECONCILE THOSE NUMBERS BECAUSE
WE KNOW THAT QUEBEC IS THE
PROVINCE WHERE THERE ARE MOST
CASES, AND YET WHEN QUEBEC
RELEASES ITS OWN NUMBERS, ITS
OWN PROJECTION LAST WEEK, IT'S
BEST CASE SCENARIO WAS 1200
DEATHS AND NOW YOU ARE TALKING
ABOUT 11,000.
SO I HAVE A HARD TIME
RECONCILING BOTH.
>> YES.
SO OF COURSE EACH JURISDICTION
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF
DIFFERENT MODELLING FOR THEIR
OWN PLANNING PURPOSES SHE AND AS
I SAID, THESE ARE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS SO THEY MAY BE USING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PARAMETERS
FOR THEIR NUMBERS AS WELL.
BUT OF COURSE AS I SAID, AT THE
NATIONAL LEVEL, WE ARE REALLY AN
AGGREGATE AND COMPOSITE PICTURE
OF ALL OF THE DIFFERENT REGIONAL
AND PROVINCIAL OUTBREAKS.
SO CERTAINLY QUEBEC WILL USE
THEIR REALTIME INFORMATION TO
ADJUST THEIR MODELING AS NEEDED
AS WELL.
SO IN TERMS OF THE TIMEFRAMES,
SO THE HEADING OF THIS SLIDE IS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PANDEMIC.
BUT IF YOU SORT OF LOOK BACK ONE
SLIDE PORTFOLIO THAT, WHICH IS
SLIDE 14, YOU CAN SEE THAT THE
DURATION OF THE COURSE OF THAT
WAVE IS TO ACTUALLY A BITER
CONTROLS, YOU CAN SEE THAT YOU
GET A LOWER ATTACK RATE, BUT
IT'S SPREAD OVER A LONGER PERIOD
OF TIME.
SO THE TIMEFRAME IS OVER THE
COURSE OF THAT WAVE.
>> AND AS A FOLLOW-UP, I THINK R
PRESENTATION, BUT WHEN DO YOU
EXPECT THE PEAK TO HAPPEN?
CAN WE TALK ABOUT IT NATIONALLY?
BECAUSE I KNOW IN QUEBEC, THEY
TALKED ABOUT 18th OF APRIL,
IN ALBERTA I THINK THEY TALKED
ABOUT MID MAY.
IS THERE A PEAK?
IS THERE SUCH A THING AS A PEAK
DATE FOR CANADA?
>> WELL, CANADA AS I SAID, THE
EPIDEMIC CURVE IS A COMPOSITE
THEN OF ALL OF THE DIFFERENT
CURVES IN THE DIFFERENT
JURISDICTIONS, SO FOR SURE WE
NEED TO LOOK VERY CAREFULLY AT
EACH OF THE PROVINCIAL
TRAJECTORIES ON TOP OF THE
CANADA AGGREGATE.
SO I ACTUALLY THINK THAT THE
AGGREGATE CANADIAN CURVE REALLY
DOESN'T TELL THE COMPLETE STORY.
YOU DO HAVE TO BREAK IT DOWN
INTO THE DIFFERENT PROVINCES AND
TERRITORIES.
WHAT I WILL SAY IS OF COURSE WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SIGNS OF THAT
BENDING, OF THAT CURVE, THE
SLOWING DOWN OF THAT GROWTH
RATE.
BUT BECAUSE OF -- AS I HAVE
MENTIONED ALWAYS, THE DELAY IN
WHEN SOMEONE GOT INFECTED TO THE
TIME THAT THEY ARE DIAGNOSED,
TESTED, AND REPORTED, THAT COULD
BE A SPACE OF AT LEAST TWO
WEEKS.
AND DURING THAT TIME, YOU HAVE
TO BE REALLY CAUTIOUS, YOU DON'T
ACTUALLY KNOW THE PEAK UNTIL
YOU'VE PASSED THE PEAK.
IT ALWAYS HAPPENS.
YOU CAN'T TELL WHETHER YOU'VE
REACHED THE PEAK UNTIL AFTER THE
PEAK HAD ACTUALLY BEEN REALIZED
AND SO I WOULD JUST TAKE IT A
DAY AT A TIME AND LOOK VERY
CAREFULLY IN THE COMING WEEKS.
I'VE SAID, IN SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY, THIS WEEK IS VERY
IMPORTANT AND NEXT WEEK HAVE
VERY IMPORTANT, THAT TIMING OF
WHEN THAT PEAK MIGHT OCCUR, CAN
OCCUR AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING
THE -- IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY.
AS I HAVE SAID, WHAT I REALLY
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT EVEN
IF YOU ARE SEEING SOME BEND IN
THAT PEAK -- RETROSPECTIVELY
OCCUR, 50% OF THE CASES, IF
THAT'S A SYMMETRIC CURVE OF
COURSES STILL OCCURS ON THAT
DOWN SIDE OF THE SLOPE.
YOU CANNOT LET GO OF THOSE
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES IF YOU
SEE THAT DOWN TURN.
(Please Stand By)
 >> (Question by Media): THANK 
YOU.
>> SO NOW WE'LL TURN TO THE 
ROOM.
WE'LL START WITH JULIA, THEN 
GLEN.
>> SORRY.
JULIE VAN DUSEN, CBC.
CAN YOU GIVE US A ROUGH IDEA 
FROM YOUR MODELLING, WE'VE ALL 
BEEN LIVING UNDER RESTRICTIONS 
FOR WEEKS.
WHEN DO YOU THINK THE TIGHTEST 
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED, AND
HOW CAN THAT EVEN HAPPEN UNLESS 
ALL CANADIANS ARE TESTED, 
BECAUSE MANY MIGHT BE WALKING 
AROUND WITH NO SYMPTOMS, 
INFECTING EACH OTHER, EVEN WHEN 
THE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED?
>> I THINK THAT IS THE QUESTION 
THAT MOST CANADIANS ARE PROBABLY
ASKING RIGHT NOW.
SO AGAIN, WE DON'T KNOW IF WE 
HAVE REACHED THE PEAK ANYWHERE 
IN CANADA AS YET.
SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL, AND 
WE'VE GOT TO REALLY LOOK VERY 
CAREFULLY DAY BY DAY AT WHERE 
THE TRAJECTORIES ARE GOING IN 
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
WE WILL NOT KNOW THAT WE'VE 
PASSED THE PEAK UNTIL 
RETROSPECIVELY WE WILL KNOW.
ON THE DOWNWARD SIDE ON THE 
CURVE, WE CANNOT LET GO OF ANY 
OF OUR PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES.
THE MOMENT YOU RELEASE ANYTHING,
THE CHANGE IN TRANSMISSION IS 
GOING TO IGNITE.
SO YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO GET 
THE INITIAL EPIDEMIC TO DIE OUT,
TO STAMP IT OUT.
SO AT THE END OF WHICH, THINGS 
HAVE TO BE RECALIBRATED.
AS I SAID, WE ARE GOING TO LOOK 
TOWARDS COUNTRY THAT HAVE GONE 
BEFORE US TO LEARN IF THEY ARE 
BEGINNING TO RELAX THEIR 
MEASURES, WHAT THEY MIGHT BE 
DOING AND LEARNING FROM THEIR 
EXPERIENCE.
AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK RIGHT 
NOW IS A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN, 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WE'RE COMING
TOGETHER TO SAY, WELL, WHAT -- 
HOW DO WE DETERMINE THE 
EFFECTIVENESS OF OUR PUBLIC 
HEALTH MEASURES?
HOW DO WE DETERMINE THE 
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES 
OF THE MEASURES THAT WE HAVE 
ALREADY TAKEN?
AND THEN HOW DO WE VERY 
CAUTIOUSLY POTENTIALLY LIFT SOME
OF THEM, DEPENDING ON OUR DATA 
AND WHAT SHOWS AT THAT TIME.
ALL I CAN SAY IS IT WILL BE A 
VERY CAUTIOUS APPROACH BECAUSE 
RIGHT NOW THE POPULATION IS 
SUSCEPTIBLE.
SO ANYTHING THAT WE DO MUST NOT 
REIGNITE ANOTHER CHAIN OF 
TRANSMISSION.
SO I CAN'T BE EXTREMELY PRECISE 
WITH THE TIMING OF THAT.
BUT AGAIN, EVERYTHING THAT WE DO
NOW WILL SHORTEN THAT PERIOD OF 
TIME.
>> (Question by Media): SO 
DOCTORS, YOUR MESSAGE HAS BEEN 
FOR DAYS NOW STAY IN YOUR 
BUBBLE, AND WE KNOW NOT 
EVERYBODY IS STAYING IN THEIR 
BUBBLE, INCLUDING ANECDOTALLY WE
HEAR OF BOYFRIENDS GOING TO SEE 
GIRLFRIENDS THAT LIVE AT 
DIFFERENT HOUSES AND SO ON.
THIS WEEK'S GOING TO BE A HUGE 
TEST.
WE'RE HEADING INTO A HOLIDAY 
WEEKEND.
DO YOU HAVE ANY ADVICE?
WHAT WILL YOU BE DOING?
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO WANT TO GET 
OUT OF THEIR BUBBLES AND GO INTO
OTHER PEOPLE'S BUBBLES.
>> IT IS DIFFICULT FOR EVERYONE 
LIVING IN CANADA.
WE'RE NOT USED TO SOME OF THESE 
BEHAVIOUR CHANGES WE'RE ASKING 
EVERY CANADIAN TO TAKE.
BUT I THINK IF YOU CAN PUT THAT 
IMAGE IN YOUR HEAD OF WHAT COULD
HAPPEN, THE REALLY SEVERE 
CONSEQUENCES THAT CAN HAPPEN IF 
WE DON'T ALL DO A LOT, SO 
STAYING AT HOME, ONLY HAVING 
DINNER AND RELIGIOUS 
OBSERVATIONS WITH YOUR IMMEDIATE
FAMILY MEMBERS, DON'T INVITE 
OTHER FAMILY OR FRIENDS OVER, IS
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.
WE ARE IN A VERY CRITICAL TIME 
PERIOD.
BUT JUST REMEMBER WHAT COULD 
HAPPEN IF WE DON'T TRY REALLY 
HARD AT THIS TIME.
AND I THINK PRACTICING PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING OUTSIDE AS THE 
WEATHER IMPROVES, PEOPLE WILL BE
WANTING TO GO OUT, BUT 
MAINTAINING THAT 2-METER 
DISTANCE.
WE OF COURSE -- I THINK THERE'S 
SOME INNOVATIONS.
THERE ARE DIFFERENT INNOVATORS 
WITH APPLICATIONS, FOR INSTANCE,
THAT TRIES TO NUDGE PEOPLE TO DO
THE RIGHT THING, FEEDBACK FROM A
NUMBER OF STUDIES, FOR EXAMPLE, 
EVEN THE GOOGLE STUDY THAT SHOWS
A REDUCTION IN MOBILIZATION 
MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE, I THINK 
SHOULD BE A GREAT SIMULATION TO 
SAY, LOOK, CANADA, CANADIANS, 
WE'VE DONE ACTUALLY PRETTY WELL.
WE'VE RESTRICTED MOVEMENT QUITE 
A BIT JUST BASED ON WHAT GOOGLE 
HAS BEEN TELLING US IN TERMS OF 
MOBILE PHONE MOVEMENT DATA, FOR 
EXAMPLE, BUT WE CAN DO BETTER.
AND SO STUDIES LIKE THOSE HELPS 
US SORT OF LOOK AT THEM AND GO, 
OKAY, WELL, WE CAN REDUCE OUR 
MOVEMENT AND STAY AT HOME AS 
MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
BUT IT IS A MATTER OF LIFE AND 
DEATH, REALLY.
AND WHEN I SAY, YOU KNOW, WE ARE
THE AUTHORS OF OUR FATE, THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT IS REALLY 
SERIOUS, AND EVERY CANADIAN 
SHOULD DO OUR UTMOST, AND WE 
KNOW WE CAN.
WE'RE RESILIENT GROUP OF PEOPLE.
WE WANT TO PROTECT OTHERS.
SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY 
WILL BE DOING THEIR BEST.
>> I'M JUST ADD TO THAT A 
PERSONAL EXAMPLE OF MYSELF.
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE AN A 
SIRCH -- VIRTUAL EASTER.
I HAVE THREE CHILDREN, ONE'S IN 
OTTAWA, SHE'S A UNIVERSITY 
STUDENT AND HASN'T BEEN LIVING 
AT HOME WITH US SINCE THIS 
BEGAN.
MY TWO BOYS ARE IN QUEBEC, IN 
MONTREAL, SO WE HAVE LOTS OF 
GREAT VIDEO CONFERENCES AND 
WE'LL PLAN TO HAVE A VIRTUAL 
EASTER OVER DINNER OVER WEB CAM.
PARDON ME?
OF COURSE IT'S HARD.
WE'RE USED TO HAVING FAMILY 
GATHERINGS.
IT'S A GREAT TRADITION THAT WE 
HAVE, AND I THINK LOTS OF PEOPLE
ACROSS CANADA, BUT WE KNOW THAT 
THESE ARE EXTRAORDINARY TIMES.
MY CHILDREN UNDERSTAND THAT.
MY PARTNER AND MYSELF, WE'RE IN 
OUR OWN BUBBLE AT HOME, AND THE 
KIDS, THEY RECOGNIZE THEY NEED 
TO BE IN THEIR BUBBLE.
>> THANK YOU.
GLEN?
>> (Question by Media): GLEN 
MCGREGOR, CTV NEWS.
ON CHART 15, IT SPECIFIES THE 
NUMBER OF DEATHS ONLY FOR 2 
SCENARIOS BETWEEN 2.5% INFECTION
RATE AND 5%.
I WONDER IF YOU THINK THAT'S THE
RANGE WE'RE IN NOW, SO THAT'S 
ARE BASED ON WHAT WE'RE DOING, 
THAT'S THE BEST AND WORSE 
SCENARIO IF WE KEEP DOING WHAT 
WE'RE DOING NOW?
AND SECONDARILY SO THAT, IN THE 
VERY BEST CASE SCENARIO OF 1% 
INFECTION RATE, IS THAT 
ATTAINABLE, AND IF SO, IF YOU 
USE THE SAME DEATH RATE, THAT 
WOULD STILL MEAN 4,000 DEATHS, 
BY MY CALCULATION.
IS THAT THE ABSOLUTE BEST 
SCENARIO?
>> AGAIN, ALL THESE SCENARIOS 
ARE SCENARIOS, AND THEY'RE VERY 
SENSITIVE TO THE ACTION THAT WE 
HAVE RIGHT NOW.
I THINK THE 2.5% IS THE SORT OF 
MID RANGE OF THAT BEST, 
STRONGEST EPIDEMIC CONTROL 
SCENARIO AS AN ILLUSTRATION OF 
THE KINDS OF NUMBERS YOU WOULD 
GET IF YOU PUT THESE SCENARIOS 
THROUGH THIS RANGE, AND I THINK,
YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT 2.5, 5%, 
THEY ARE JUST SCENARIOS, BUT I 
THINK LOOKING AT THOSE RANGES 
HELPS PLANNING FROM A HEALTH 
SYSTEM PERSPECTIVE.
I THINK THAT ATTACK RATES OR THE
PERCENTAGE OF POPULATIONS 
INFECTED BEYOND THOSE RANGES 
WILL MEAN THAT THE HEALTH SYSTEM
WILL FIND IT REALLY DIFFICULT TO
COPE.
SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS TO STAY
UNDER THAT KIND OF TRAJECTORY.
>> (Question by Media): THESE 
MODELS ARE BASED ON WHAT DEATH 
RATE EXACTLY?
THAT'S A GUESS BECAUSE YOU DON'T
KNOW THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE 
WHO ARE INFECTED.
SO I'M WONDERING IF YOU CAN TELL
US WHAT THAT IS BASED ON AND HOW
YOU CALCULATED THE DEATH RATE 
COMPARED TO PLACES WITHOUT AS 
GOOD INTENSIVE CARE SYSTEMS.
>> SO THE DYNAMIC MODEL THAT WE 
TALKED ABOUT WILL INPUT A 
VARIETY OF THOSE FACTORS, THE 
MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS, AND 
DIFFERENT RANGES OR SENSITIVITY 
AROUND EACH OF THESE NUMBERS.
AND EVEN OUR CASE FATALITY OR 
WHAT WE CALL THE SORT OF CRUDE 
CASE FACILITITY AT THIS TIME 
WILL VARY.
AND I HAVE TO POINT OUT THAT ON 
THE EPIDEMIOLOGY SLIDE, I DID 
SAY THAT A GREAT PROPORTION OF 
OUR DEATHS, UNFORTUNATELY, ARE 
LINKED TO LONG-TERM CARE 
FACILITIES.
SO UNDERSTANDING WHAT THIS 
DEATHS ARE TELLS US HOW TO 
IMPROVE OUR FINAL OUTCOMES.
SO WITH THAT POPULATION BEING 
QUITE SEVERELY IMPACTED, YOU'RE 
SEEING A CURRENT CASE FATALITY 
OF AROUND 2%, BUT THE MODELERS, 
SOME OF WHOM ARE ON THE PHONE, 
WILL HAVE PARAMETERS AND 
SENSITIVITY IN THE RANGE AND 
INPUT GIVEN TO SOME OF THOSE 
MEASURES.
>>>  SO IF YOU'RE SEEING 
CLUSTERS CONCENTRATED IN OLDER 
POPULATIONS, YOU'LL SEE A HIGHER
FATALITY.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE CANADIAN 
POPULATION IN A MORE HOMOGENOUS 
WAY, OF COURSE THAT MAY REDUCE 
THAT.
BUT THE MODELS WILL LOOK AT THE 
DYNAMICS OF TRANSMISSION AS 
WELL.
I DON'T KNOW IF DR. WALLEDEN 
WOULD LIKE TO ADD ANYTHING. 
>> I WOULD JUST MENTION THAT 
THOSE PARAMETERS ARE INFORM BY 
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AND WORK 
IN CANADA BY OUR MODELERS AT THE
PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY AND THE 
NETWORKS THEY WORK WITH ACROSS 
THE PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES 
AND ACADEMIA.
>> THANK YOU.
>> (Question by Media): I JUST 
WANTED TO GET BACK TO THIS 
QUESTION OF 11,000 TO 22,000 
DEATHS.
I JUST WANT A BIT MORE CLARITY 
ABOUT HOW WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT 
THESE NUMBERS.
THESE ARE THE NUMBERS I'M GOING 
TO LATCH ON TO BECAUSE THESE ARE
THE NUMBERS WE ALL PROVIDED 
HERE.
HOW DO WE WRITE ABOUT THOSE?
ARE THOSE THE MOST LIKELY 
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT?
IS THAT THE MOST OPTIMISTIC 
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT?
WHY DID YOU PROVIDE THOSE 
FIGURES?
>> I THINK WE CAN CERTAINLY 
PROVIDE A WHOLE RANGE OF 
FIGURES.
THESE WERE SELECTED IN THE 
MIDDLE OF THE STRONG EPIDEMIC 
CONTROL RANGE, BUT ALSO TO 
ILLUSTRATE HOW SEVERE THE 
OUTCOME IS, COULD BE, IN THOSE 
SCENARIOS, EVEN IF WE OF COURSE 
PUT IN A LOT OF STRONG EPIDEMIC 
CONTROL MEASURES, AND WHERE WE 
END UP IN THAT RANGE WILL AGAIN 
DEPEND ON THE ACTIONS THAT ARE 
TAKEN.
SO THEY'RE WILL TO ILLUSTRATE 
WHAT THE OUTPUT IS FOR THE 2.5% 
ATTACK RATE OR THE PERCENTAGE 
POPULATION INFECTED AND THE 5% 
POPULATION INFECTED, AND AS I 
SAID THAT'S ACTUALLY OVER THE 
COURSE OF THE EPIDEMIC WAVE.
THE OTHER KIND OF MODELLING THAT
PARTICULARLY HAPPENS AT THE 
PROVINCIAL LEVEL IS TO MODEL THE
SHAPE OF THAT WAVE AND LOOK AT 
THAT VERY PEAK OF THAT CURVE.
BECAUSE YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE 
YOUR HEALTH SYSTEM AND/OR 
MEASURES BELOW THAT PEAK.
SO THAT'S HOW WE'RE INTERPRETED.
AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, IT'S NOT 
THAT DIFFICULT TO SORT OF 
PROJECT -- IN THE GRAPHS, YOU 
CAN'T REALLY READ VERY WELL, BUT
YOU DID GIVE THE WHOLE RANGE OF 
NUMBERS AS YOU MOVE UP THE CURVE
AND SLIDE YOURSELF ACROSS TO 
THAT Y AXIS.
BUT WE -- THERE'S ILLUSTRATION, 
AS I SAID, AROUND ABOUT THAT 
2.5% POPULATION INFECTION RATE, 
THE POINT OF WHICH THE HEALTH 
CARE SYSTEM COULD BE VERY 
PRECIOUS IN TERMS OF HIS 
RESPONSE.
SO LOOKING AT THAT RANGE IS 
ACTUALLY QUITE IMPORTANT.
>> (Question by Media): YOU ALSO
MENTION THE RATE OF GROWTH IS 
SLOWING.
DOES THAT MEAN WE ARE 
SUCCESSFULLY FLATTENING THE 
CURVE RIGHT NOW?
>> WELL, I THINK ALL CHIEF 
MEDICAL OFFICERS ARE TRYING TO 
BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE 
INTERPRETATION BECAUSE IT 
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH IF SOMEONE 
RELAXES OR DON'T PERFORM AS WELL
IN SOME OF THOSE PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES.
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE 
COMPOSITE CURVE OF ALL THE 
PROVINCES ADD TOGETHER, WE ARE 
SLOWING THEM IN A GROWTH.
WE ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE 
DOUBLING TIME OF EVERY THREE 
DAYS, EVERY FIVE DAYS, ACTUALLY 
VEERING TOWARDS THE DOUBLE TIME 
OF EVERY FIVE DAYS.
THAT IS WHAT WE'RE OBSERVING.
BUT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THAT
REALLY CLOSELY.
>> THANK YOU, DOCTOR.
LET'S GO BACK ON THE PHONE.
>> THANK YOU, MERCI.
>> Voice of Translator: THE NEXT
QUESTION.
[ End of Translation ]
>> (Question by Media): I'D LIKE
TO GO BACK TO NUMBERS AGAIN AND 
SLIDE 15, PLEASE.
CAN YOU GIVE ME THE NUMBERS THAT
STILL FOR THAT GREEN SCENARIO, 
THE 10%, THE NUMBER OF CASES, 
THE NUMBER OF HOSPITALIZATIONS, 
THE NUMBER OF INTENSIVE CARE, 
AND THE NUMBER OF DEATHS.
>> WE CAN CERTAINLY PROVIDE 
THOSE NUMBERS FOR THOSE 
EPIDEMIC -- STRONGER EPIDEMIC 
CONTROL SCENARIOS.
I WOULD JUST EMPHASIZE THAT, IN 
LOOKING AT THIS, IT'S IMPORTANT 
TO REMEMBER AS DR. TAM NOTED WE 
HAVE STRONG EPIDEMIC CONTROL 
MEASURES IN PLACE, THAT WE WANT 
TO STAY IN THE LOWER RANGE OF 
THE GREEN ZONE.
WITH THOSE STRONGER EPIDEMIC 
CONTROL MEASURES.
AND WE ARE THE AUTHORS OF OUR 
OWN FATE IN TERM OF TAKING 
COLLECTIVE ACTION TO ENSURE THAT
WE GUIDE THAT FUTURE TO THE BEST
POSSIBLE OUTCOME.
>> (Question by Media): SO CAN I
HAVE THE NUMBERS, PLEASE?
I'M STILL WAITING FOR THE 
NUMBERS.
CAN YOU GIVE THE NUMBERS, AND 
CAN YOU TELL ME IF YOU CONSIDER 
THAT NOW WE ARE IN THIS GREEN 
ZONE OF CONTROLLING THE 
EPIDEMIC?
SO CAN YOU GIVE ME THE NUMBERS 
FOR THE 10%?
BECAUSE I CAN CALCULATE THE 
PERCENTAGE OF CASES, BUT I 
CANNOT -- I CAN'T INFER THE 
HOSPITALIZATION NUMBERS OR THE 
INTENSIVE CARE NUMBERS OR THE 
DEATHS.
>> WE WILL CERTAINLY WORK TO 
PROVIDE THOSE -- THOSE NUMBERS 
IN A VERY SHORT TERM.
>> WE CAN FOLLOW UP WITH YOU 
AFTER, LEENA.
>> (Question by Media): I 
THOUGHT THIS WAS THE BRIEFING, 
THIS WAS WHAT THIS WAS SUPPOSED 
TO BE FOR. 
>> MAYBE I CAN ANSWER THAT, IS 
THAT CERTAINLY WITH OUR 
MODELERS, THERE'S A WIDE RANGE 
OF PARAMETERS THAT GO INTO THE 
MODELLING, AS YOU CAN 
APPRECIATE, THAT IT'S VERY 
SENSITIVE, DEPENDING ON WHAT 
KIND OF SORT OF PERCENTAGES YOU 
PUT IN.
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, WE'RE LOOKING 
AT ATTACK RATES.
SO OVER THE WHOLE COURSE OF THE 
EPIDEMIC, WE'RE ESTIMATING IN 
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IN A 1% 
OF THE CANADIAN POPULATION WILL 
BECOME INFECTED.
SO WE LOOK AT THE CANADIAN 
POPULATION OF 37 MILLION, 
OBVIOUSLY YOU SEE THE FIGURE 
THERE, WOULD BE ABOUT 376,000.
AND OF COURSE WE ESTIMATE THAT 
OVER QUITE A NUMBER OF MONTHS, 
NOT ALL AT ONCE.
SO THAT COULD BE OVER EVEN A 
YEAR OR SO, IF WE DO OUR BEST 
EFFORTS TO CONTINUE OUR PUBLIC 
HEALTH MEASURES LIKE PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING.
IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT 
HOSPITALIZATION, THERE'S QUITE A
WIDE RANGE.
I CAN GIVE YOU A FIGURE, IT'S A 
CERTAIN PERCENTAGE.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA WE HAVE 
TO DATE, IT'S QUITE A BIT LOWER.
CERTAINLY ABOUT 6, 7% OR SO, IS 
THE KIND OF ESTIMATES WE'VE SEEN
IN THE DATA THAT GIVES US A 
ROUGH IDEA OF WHAT WE CAN 
EXPECT.
THEN DATA FROM AROUND THE WORLD 
PLUS OUR OWN EXPERIENCE IN 
CANADA SHOWS US WHAT KIND OF 
PERCENTAGE OR WHAT THE NUMBER OF
PEOPLE THAT MIGHT END UP NEEDING
ICU BED AND OF COURSE IN THE 
WORST-CASE SCENARIO, A 
VENTILATOR.
BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT IN CANADA 
WE DON'T HAVE THAT MUCH DATA YET
THAT'S REPORTED UP TO THE 
NATIONAL LEVEL.
SO THE DATA'S VERY SENSITIVE.
AND THEREFORE NOT TO LET'S SAY 
GIVE YOU NUMBERS THAT COULD 
CHANGE THE NEXT DAY, AND ALSO 
ALARM PEOPLE UNDULY, WE'RE STILL
IN THE SENSE AT THIS POINT 
GETTING THE DATA FROM THE 
PROVINCES.
WE RECOGNIZE THERE'S BEEN DELAY.
AND MAYBE AT A FUTURE POINT 
WE'LL BE ABLE TO GIVE YOU MORE 
PRECISE FIGURES.
BUT THAT'S THE NATURE OF 
MODELLING. 
>> SO JUST TO HELP YOU DO 
SOME -- ALL OF US DO SOME SIMPLE
ARITHMETIC, IF YOU SEE THE 2.5 
TO 5%, YOU'RE MULTIPLIES THOSE 
NUMBERS BY TWO.
SO YOU CAN IMAGINE IF YOU WANT 
THE 10%, WHAT YOU DO -- FOR 
EXAMPLE, HOSPITALIZATION, THE 
10% SCENARIO,  YOU MULTIPLY 
146,000 BY TWO.
SO THAT WILL BE 292,000.
SO THAT IS HOW WE WOULD BE ABLE 
TO GIVE YOU THOSE NUMBERS.
DOES THAT HELP?
>> (Question by Media): YES.
THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU.
>> . 
[ Speaking French ]
>> Voice of Translator: THE NEXT
QUESTION, RADIO CANADA.
>> (Question by Media): GOOD 
MORNING, EVERYONE.
NOW, I UNDERSTAND THE SITUATION,
BUT CANADIANS WANT TO UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S GOING ON AS WELL.
WHAT IS YOUR BEST ASSESSMENT?
WHEN WILL THE PEAK OCCUR BASED 
ON THE VARIOUS MODELS?
WHAT IS YOUR BEST ESTIMATE OF 
THAT?
AND HOW LONG WILL PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING MEASURES BE REQUIRED?
THE GRAPH APPEARS TO INDICATE A 
YEAR.
COULD YOU GIVE US SOMETHING 
PRECISE FOR CANADIANS?
SO THE PEAK AND THE PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING TIME FRAME.
>> DR. NJOO.
THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION.
IT'S DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHEN 
THE PEAK WILL OCCUR.
WITH AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CURVE.
WE CAN ONLY KNOW WHEN WE'VE 
REACHED A PEAK ONCE WE START 
SEEING THE DOWNWARD TREND.
AFTER THE PEAK, WE CAN LOOK AND 
SAY, AH, I REALIZE IN FACT WE 
HAVE HIT THE PEAK AND ARE ON THE
DECLINING PART OF THE CURVE, SO 
IT'S DIFFICULT IN THAT REGARD.
BUT WE CAN PREDICT THAT IF WE DO
OUR BEST IN TERMS OF PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING, THE FIRST WAVE MAY 
END IN THE SUMMER.
SO THAT'S NUMBER ONE.
QUESTION NUMBER ONE.
WITH RESPECT TO THE DOWNWARD 
CURVE, 50% OF THE CASES CAN 
OCCUR AFTER THE PEAK.
SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN 
PLACE THE PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES, PHYSICAL DISTANCING, 
ET CETERA.
WE CAN'T GIVE UP AFTER THE PEAK.
WE CAN'T SAY OKAY WE'RE ON A 
DOWNWARD PART OF THE CURVE.
WE CAN START GETTING TOGETHER 
AGAIN.
NO.
THAT'S AN IMPORTANT POINT TO 
MENTION AGAIN.
WE ALSO SHOWED THAT AFTER THE 
FIRST WAVE WE EXPECT SOME 
SMALLER SUBSEQUENT WAVES AS 
WELL.
SO IT'S IN FACT IN THE EPIDEMIC 
IN CANADA ISN'T LIKE ONE BIG 
EPIDEMIC.
THERE ARE LOTS OF SMALLER, LOCAL
EPIDEMICS IN EACH PROVINCE.
SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT IT 
ALL DEPENDS ON WHAT'S HAPPENING 
IN THE PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES.
IN THE FUTURE, ONE PROBLEM, FOR 
EXAMPLE, MAY BE ABLE TO PUT IN 
PLACE MEASURES TO RELAX PUBLIC 
HEALTH CONTROLS WITH RESPECT TO 
PHYSICAL DISTANCING, PERHAPS A 
LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANOTHER 
PROVINCE OR TERRITORY.
BECAUSE THEY'RE AT A DIFFERENT 
POINT IN THEIR CURVE AS WELL.
>> (Question by Media): WELL, I 
UNDERSTAND, SO DEPENDING ON THE 
PROVINCE, THEN, IT MAY HAVE BEEN
THAT PHYSICAL DISTANCING MIGHT 
HAVE TO LAST UNTIL DECEMBER, FOR
EXAMPLE, THEN.
>> IF WE CONTINUE WITH OUR BEST 
EFFORTS, WE WANT TO -- WE WILL 
ATTEMPT TO BE PLANKING THE 
CURVE.
WE HOPE IN FACT THAT THE FIRST 
WAVE, I DON'T HAVE THE ACTUAL 
SLIDE OR PAGE IN FRONT OF ME, 
BUT WE SEE THAT FIRST WAVE 
LASTING UNTIL THE SUMMER.
THAT WON'T BE THE END OF THE 
EPIDEMIC.
WE EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SMALLER 
WAVES.
THAT'S WHY IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY
NATIONALLY ON SUCH AND SUCH A 
DATE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET 
ASIDE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES 
THAT WE PUT IN PLACE IN THE 
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES.
NATIONALLY SPEAKING, IT'S A 
COMPOSITE OF ALL OF THE 
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES.
SO IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 
QUEBEC, FOR EXAMPLE, WE HAVE TO 
ASK QUEBEC AUTHORITIES WHAT IS 
HAPPENING THERE.
WE'VE THEY'VE GIVEN US SOME 
PREDICTIONS.
BUT FOR THE PEOPLE OF QUEBEC, 
THEY NEED TO STAY THE COURSE AND
TO LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE 
WEEKS TO COME.
>> (Question by Media): SO THESE
PHYSICAL DISTANCING MEASURES MAY
LAST UNTIL DECEMBER THEN.
ANSWER BY DR. NJOO.
THE PHYSICAL DISTANCING MEASURES
ARE IN EFFECT IN EACH PROVINCE 
AND TERRITORY, AND IT'S UP TO 
EACH PROVINCE AND TERRITORY TO 
MONITOR THEIR EPIDEMICS VERY 
CLOSELY.
IF IT BECOMES CLEAR, THAT THEY 
ARE ON THE DOWNWARD SIDE OF THE 
CURVE, WE MAY BE ABLE TO RELAX 
SOME MEASURES, BUT IT SHOULD BE 
UP TO THE PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES AND THEIR HEALTH 
AUTHORITIES TO MAKE A 
DETERMINATION AS TO WHEN IT CAN 
OCCUR.
IT'S ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO HAVE
A MONITORING SYSTEM IN THE 
LABORATORY TO QUICKLY DETECT 
CASES.
NOW, IF THERE ARE DELAYS, WE 
WON'T HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO 
LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING AND TO 
MONITOR THE SITUATION.
AND WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN 
CASES.
>> QUESTION BY JULIE VAN DUSEN 
IN THE ROOM.
[ End of Translation ]
>> WE PUT OUR BEST FOOT FORWARD,
ALL THE PROVINCES AND 
TERRITORIES KEEP THAT RIGHT NOW.
THIS IS THE CRITICAL TIME, 
ESPECIALLY, AS YOU SAY, WITH THE
IMPORTANT HOLIDAYS COMING UP 
SUCH AS EASTER, PASSOVER, 
RAMADAN, AND SO ON, THAT 
EVERYONE RECOGNIZES THE 
IMPORTANCE THAT, EVEN THOUGH 
THEY'RE IMPORTANT TRADITIONS, 
THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO GET 
TOGETHER.
AS I MENTIONED PERSONALLY, I'M 
HAVING A PERSONAL EASTER WITH MY
FAMILY.
IF OUR BEST EFFORTS ARE 
SUCCESSFUL, THEN POSSIBLY 
HOPEFULLY THE FIRST WAVE WILL 
END BY THE SUMMER.
BUT IT'S NOT OVER.
CERTAINLY WITH THAT FIRST WAVE, 
AS I MENTION, YOU WON'T KNOW IF 
YOU'VE REACHED THE PEAK UNTIL 
ACTUALLY YOU'RE ON THE DOWNWARD 
CURVE BECAUSE HOW -- IT'S ALMOST
LIKE RETROSPECTIVELY YOU'LL BE 
ABLE TO SEE THAT YOU'RE ON THE 
DOWNWARD CURVE, AND AFTER THAT 
WE CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE THERE 
WILL BE SMALLER SECONDARY WAVES.
WE'VE TALKED ABOUT SECOND, 
THIRD, FOURTH WAVES.
THEREFORE IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO
KEEP AT IT.
ONE OF THE KEY THINGS THAT NEEDS
TO HAPPEN ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS 
THAT WE NEED TO MAINTAIN A 
STRONG SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM AND A
LABORATORY SYSTEM THAT'S ABLE TO
TEST, AS YOU PUT IT BEFORE, 
WIDELY IN THE POPULATION.
BECAUSE IF WE START -- AND THIS 
IS REALLY AT THE PROVINCIAL AND 
TERRITORIAL LEVEL -- LET'S SAY 
RELAXING, IF YOU CAN PUT IT THAT
WAY, IN TERMS OF CERTAIN 
MEASURES, IN TERMS OF PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING, BECAUSE THEY'RE ON 
THE DOWNWARD CURVE, YOU HAVE TO 
BE ABLE TO DETECT VERY RAPIDLY 
IF CASES THAT POP UP AGAIN, YOU 
KNOW, LITTLE OUTBREAKS AND SO 
ON, YOU MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST AS 
YOU GO ON, IT'S A VERY CAUTIOUS 
APPROACH BECAUSE EACH PROVINCE 
AND TERRITORY, EACH PROVINCE AS 
A WHOLE, INDIVIDUAL REGIONS, 
CITIES, SO ON, NEED TO LOOK AT 
THEIR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, LOOK 
AT WHAT MEASURES ARE IN PLACE, 
HOPEFULLY WE SAY AS A COUNTRY IN
EACH REGION AS THE EPIDEMIC 
CURVE LOOKS LIKE IT'S ON THE 
DOWNWARD TREND, HAVE THAT GOOD 
ANALYSIS TO SEE WHAT CAN WE DO 
TOO RELAX CERTAIN THINGS.
ONE OF THE THINGS WE MENTION IS 
IT'S CRITICAL, BESIDES A GOOD 
SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM AND 
LABORATORY CAPACITY, THAT WE 
NEED TO DO OUR BEST EFFORTS TO 
PROTECT OUR MOST VULNERABLE 
POPULATIONS.
WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING IN NURSING
HOMES AND SO ON, I'M CERTAINLY 
SEEING VERY STRICT MEASURES, IN 
PLACE IN NURSING HOMES, OTHER 
SETTINGS, CERTAINLY IF YOU ARE 
TO GET AN INTRODUCTION OR 
REINTRODUCTION OF THE VIRUS, IT 
COULD HAVE CATASTROPHIC RESULTS.
THOSE ARE SOME OF THE KEY 
ASPECTS.
>> I'M NOT GOING TO PUT -- 
SUMMER.
DEPEND ON WHEN PART OF THE 
COUNTRY.
BRITISH COLUMBIA, I THINK, WOULD
BE CONSIDERED PERPETUAL SUMMER 
COMPARED TO THE NORTH.
IT'S NOT FOR ME TO SAY.
I WOULD SAY THAT SOMETIME IN THE
SUMMER.
AND THAT IT MAY VARY BY SEVERAL 
WEEKS, DEPENDING ON WHAT PART OF
THE COUNTRY.
I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN CANADA 
KNOW THAT CERTAINLY FOR SUMMER 
VACATIONS, JULY AND AUGUST SEEM 
TO BE OUR PEAK MONTHS FOR SUMMER
IN TERMS OF TAKING A VACATION.
>> I'D LIKE TO JUST PROVIDE 
FURTHER ELABORATION ON THE 
INFORMATION ON SLIDE 15.
THESE SCENARIOS ARE MODELED ON 
THE BASIS OF UNDERSTANDING THE 
TRANSMISSION OF THE DISEASE.
THEY'RE NOT DRIVEN BY DATA BY 
RATHER BY UNDERSTANDING HOW THE 
DISEASE IS TRANSMITTED AND THE 
CONTROL MEASURES IN PLACE.
FROM THOSE WE CAN DETERMINE THE 
PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION 
INFECTED AS NOTED ON SLIDE 14.
WITH THAT, WE CAN MATHEMATICALLY
DETERMINE BASED ON INFORMATION 
OBTAINED INTERNATIONALLY AND IN 
CANADA, AS I NOTED, THE NUMBER 
OF HOSPITALIZATIONS, THE NUMBER 
OF POTENTIAL PEOPLE IN ICU, THE 
NUMBER OF DEATHS.
IN THAT REGARD, OVER THE 
ACCUMULATIVE SPAN OF THE 
PANDEMIC, THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT
8% OF THE CASES WOULD BE 
HOSPITALIZED.
2.4% OF THE CASES WOULD NEED 
CARE IN ICU, AND THE CASE 
FATALITY RATE IS 1.1%.
THE EARLIER COMMENT I MADE ABOUT
2.2% IS THE OBSERVED RATE OF 
FATALITY TODAY BASED ON THE 
NUMBER OF CASES.
I JUST WANTED TO CLARIFY THAT 
POINT.
AND BASED ON THE NUMBERS, THE 
RANGE OF DEATHS IS FROM 4400 AND
1% STRONG CONTROL MEASURE.
THAT'S WHERE WE WANT TO BE OR 
BETTER.
THROUGH TO 44,000 IN THE 10% 
SCENARIO.
AS I NOTED AND DR. TAM 
EMPHASIZED IN HER BRIEFING, WE 
HAVE STRONG CONTROL MEASURES IN 
PLACE RIGHT NOW.
WE WANT TO STAY IN THE LOWER 
RANGE OF THE GREEN ZONE, 
STRONGER CONTROL MEASURES.
THAT IS THE BEST POSSIBLE 
OUTCOME FOR CANADIANS.
AND INDEED, WE ARE THE AUTHORS 
OF OUR OWN FATE AND THE ACTIONS 
THAT WE WILL TAKE COLLECTIVELY 
WILL WORK TO HELP KEEP US IN THE
GREEN ZONE TO THE BEST POSSIBLE 
OUTCOME. 
>> ONE LAST QUESTION ON THE 
PHONE.
OPERATOR?
>> THANK YOU.
MERCI.
[ Speaking French ]
>> Voice of Translator: THE NEXT
QUESTION FROM "LA PRESSE."
PLEASE GO AHEAD.
[ End of Translation ]
>> (Question by Media): DR. TAM,
CAN YOU SPEAK TO THE QUEBEC 
CURVE, HOW IT SEEMS TO BE MUCH 
MORE PROBLEMATIC SITUATION OVER 
THERE?
HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN THAT TO 
THE -- THE NUMBERS ARE SO MUCH 
STARKER IN QUEBEC THAN IN THE 
REST OF THE COUNTRY?
>> YES.
SO I THINK YOU'RE SPEAKING TO 
SLIDE NUMBER 7.
IS THAT CORRECT?
>> (Question by Media): YES, I 
AM.
YES. 
>> SO IN TERMS OF QUEBEC, THERE 
MAY BE A RANGE OF FACTORS.
ONE IS THAT OF COURSE QUEBEC IS 
TESTING A LOT OF PEOPLE.
AT SOME POINT IN THIS 
Y
TRAJECTORY, WE CAN SEE THERE'S 
QUITE A SHARP INCREASE AS THE 
TESTING ALSO ACCELERATED.
WE KNOW ALBERTA AND QUEBEC ARE 
TESTING AT A VERY, VERY HIGH 
RATE, AND SO A NUMBER OF OTHER 
JURISDICTIONS AS WELL.
 BUT THEY ARE EXPERIENCING A 
DIFFERENT OUTBREAK TO OTHERS.
FOR EXAMPLE, THEY EXPERIENCED 
THE MARCH BREAK EARLIER TO THE 
REST OF THE POPULATION AT A TIME
WHEN PEOPLE WERE STILL TAKING 
VACATIONS OVERSEAS RIGHT NOW.
WE HAVE ADVISED AGAINST ALL 
NONESSENTIAL TRAVEL AND WITH A 
LOT OF OTHER TRAVEL MEASURES AND
ADVISORIES AND THE PREVENTION OF
FOREIGN NATIONALS, FOR EXAMPLE, 
IS COMING TO CANADA.
SO I BELIEVE THAT SOME OF THOSE 
DYNAMICS LIKE THE MARCH BREAK 
RETURNEES ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO 
QUEBEC'S UPWARD TRAJECTORY AT 
THAT TIME.
SO I THINK IT'S A COMBINATION OF
THE ACTUAL EPIDEMIOLOGY AND THE 
TRANSMISSION IN THAT PROVINCE 
TOGETHER WITH TESTING STRATEGIES
AND -- BUT THE KEY IS THAT WE 
CAN THEN OBSERVE ONE THING 
STABILIZED, YOU CAN OBSERVE THAT
CURVE AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO 
IT.
EACH INDIVIDUAL CURVE YOU CAN 
THEN FOLLOW.
AND SEE WHAT THAT SLOPE MIGHT 
LOOK LIKE OVER TIME.
[ Speaking French ]
>> Voice of Translator: DR. NJOO
REPLYING.
>>>  QUEBEC HAS DONE A GOOD JOB 
IT TEST ITS POPULATION.
WE KNOW WITH EPIDEMIOLOGICAL 
CURVES, THEY REFLECT TESTED 
CASES, CAUSES THAT HAVE BEEN 
IDENTIFIED, AND QUEBEC IS DONE A
VERY GOOD JOB.
IDENTIFYING CASES, TESTING, AS 
WAS POINTED OUT BY DR. TAM, 
THEIR MARCH BREAK WAS EARLIER 
THAN IT WAS IN OTHER PROVINCES 
AND TERRITORIES.
>> (Question by Media): 
DR. NJOO, I'D LIKE TO GO BACK TO
THE DURATION, IF YOU WILL, OF 
PHYSICAL DISTANCING.
 IT COULD LAST UNTIL DECEMBER, 
THEN, BASED ON MY UNDERSTANDING.
>> NOW, AS I SAID EARLIER, IF 
EVERYONE AND PEOPLE IN QUEBEC 
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING AND THE OTHER PUBLIC 
HEALTH MEASURES, IF THEY FOLLOW 
THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PUBLIC 
HEALTH IN CANADA, AND IN QUEBEC 
AS WELL AND THE PROVINCE, WE 
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO LAST 
UNTIL THE SUMMER.
BUT CLEARLY AT THAT POINT THE 
EPIDEMIC WILL NOT BE OVER.
WE EXPECT SOME SMALL WAVES TO 
FOLLOW THAT.
SO THIS IS A MATTER THAT THE 
AUTHORITIES WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOLLOWING THEIR EPIDEMICS VERY 
CLOSELY, MONITORING THE CHANGES,
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO RELAX SOME 
MEASURES AS THEY AWAIT THE 
SMALLER SUBSEQUENT WAVES, BUT IT
IS CRITICAL TO HAVE A GOOD 
TRACKING AND MONITORING SYSTEM 
AND A LAB SYSTEM TO QUICKLY 
IDENTIFY NEW OUTBREAKS IN THAT 
SCENARIO.
THAT COULD CAUSE ANOTHER WAVE OR
AN OUTBREAK.
SO THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED 
VERY CAREFULLY.
CLEARLY AS DR. TAM AND I HAVE 
SAID, WE AGREE WITH THE OTHER 
CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICERS IN THE 
PROVINCES.
WE NEED TO PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY 
BASED ON SCIENTIFIC DATA.
>> (Question by Media): THEN 
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE END OF 
THE SUMMER THEN?
>> WELL, YOU CAN SEE ON THE 
SLIDE THAT THE FIRST WAVE WITH 
OUR BEST EFFORTS MAINTAINED, WE 
HOPE THAT THE FIRST WAVE WILL 
END -- WE CAN SEE IT WILL LAST 
UNTIL THE SUMMER.
>> (Question by Media): 
(INAUDIBLE).
[ End of Translation ]
>> IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY BECAUSE
EVERY PROVINCE AND TERRITORY AS 
THEIR OWN EPIDEMIC.
SO DEPENDING WITHIN LET'S SAY, 
FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU WERE IN A 
COMMUNITY -- I'LL EXAGGERATE THE
POINT -- THAT HAS A VERY -- SAY,
A HIGH PROPORTION OF SENIORS, 
MAYBE QUITE A NUMBER OF NURSING 
HOMES, THE WAY YOU MIGHT GO 
FORWARD IN TERMS OF THE MEASURES
THAT YOU MIGHT EITHER KEEP IN 
PLACE OR SORT OF SLOWLY RELAX 
WOULD BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM, 
LET'S SAY, ANOTHER PART OF THE 
COUNTRY WHERE MAYBE THE 
COMMUNITIES ARE MORE SPREAD OUT.
MAYBE THE POPULATION DENSITY IS 
DIFFERENT.
SO THERE'S SO MANY FACTORS IN 
PLAY THAT IT'S DIFFICULT TO SAY 
IN GENERAL, ESPECIALLY AT THE 
NATIONAL LEVEL, OH, YES, AT THIS
DATE, YOU KNOW, ALL OF QUEBEC OR
ALL OF ONTARIO OR WHATEVER 
PROVINCE, ALBERTA, ET CETERA, 
COULD LET GO OF MEASURES IN 
TOTALITY, BECAUSE YOU REALLY 
HAVE TO DO IT AT A VERY HIGH 
STATE.
GRANULAR OR LOCAL LEVEL.
>> THANK YOU.
THIS IS ALL THE TIME WE HAVE FOR
TODAY.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NEXT PRESS 
CONFERENCE AT NOON TODAY.
[ Speaking French ]
>> Voice of Translator: THE NEXT
PRESS CONFERENCE WILL TAKE PLACE
AT NOON TODAY.
THANK YOU.
[ End of Translation ]
>> ALL RIGHT.
AND THAT IS THE END OF THE 
FEDERAL BRIEFING ON MODELLING 
AND PROJECTIONS OF THE PANDEMIC 
IN THIS COUNTRY.
IT IS A REMINDER OUR FIRST 
NATIONAL PICTURE OF WHERE WE ARE
IN THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19 
AND WHERE WE MIGHT END UP, 
DEPENDING ON OUR BEHAVIOUR AND 
THE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES IN 
PLACE.
MAYBE I'LL JUST GIVE ONE OF THE 
HIGHLIGHTS THERE, WE HEARD AT 
THE END FROM DR. NJOO, THE 
DEPUTY PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICER TO 
DR. THERESA TAM, IS THAT THE 
FIRST WAVE OF THIS IS GOING TO 
LAST UNTIL THE SUMMER.
ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS, OF 
COURSE, EVERYONE HAS AT HOME 
WHEN YOU'RE STAYING AT HOME IS 
HOW LONG ARE WE IN THIS?
AND DR. NJOO SEEMS TO SUGGEST 
THAT, BASED ON WHAT THEY'RE 
SEEING SO FAR, THIS IS GOING TO 
LAST UNTIL THE SUMMER, BUT ALSO 
STRESSES THAT WON'T BE THE END 
OF THE EPIDEMIC AND THAT DOESN'T
MEAN THE STRICT PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES THAT ARE IN PLACE WILL 
BE LOOSENED ENTIRELY.
BECAUSE, WHILE THERE IS NO 
TREATMENT AND NO VACCINE, 
OBVIOUSLY CONTAINMENT IS THE 
ONLY WAY TO FIGHT OFF THE VIRUS.
I WILL GET TO MY COLLEAGUES IN 
JUST A MOMENT, BUT FIRST I WANT 
TO GO TO DR. IAN BOGOCH WHO HAS 
BEEN WITH US ABOUT MUCH OF OUR 
COVERAGED.
HE'S A LOT SMARTER THAN ME ON 
ALL THIS.
ISAAC.
SORRY.
DR. ISAAC BOGOCH.
LET'S START, DR. BOGOCH WITH 
WHETHER YOU THINK -- WHETHER YOU
HAVE A DIFFERENT SENSE OF THINGS
NOW BASED ON THE PICTURE WE GOT 
THERE FROM PUBLIC HEALTH 
OFFICIALS.
>> NO, I THOUGHT THIS WAS REALLY
ACCURATE.
I LIKE HOW THEY PROJECTED THE 
DIFFERENT APPROACHES OF WHERE 
WOULD WE BE IF WE DID NOTHING, 
WHERE ARE WE IN A -- YOU KNOW, 
IF WE DO A MODERATE JOB IN OUR 
PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES AND 
ADHERING TO THOSE MEASURES, AND 
WHERE WOULD WE BE IN IDEAL 
CIRCUMSTANCES?
AND I THINK THAT REALLY PORTRAYS
A VERY ACCURATE PICTURE.
I GET IT, THESE ARE MODELS, THIS
IS NOT A CRYSTAL BALL, THIS IS 
JUST TO HELP SHED LIGHT ON WHERE
WE MIGHT BE.
I THINK IT'S REALLY A VERY FAIR 
DESCRIPTION OF WHERE WE COULD 
POSSIBLY BE, AND I ALSO LIKE THE
APPROACH OF SHOWING -- YOU KNOW,
IF WE DID DO ANYTHING, THIS 
CLEARLY WOULD BE SADLY A LOT 
WORSE THAN WHAT IT IS NOW.
>> Rosemary: I WOULD AGREE.
I THOUGHT IT WAS WELL DONE, BUT 
THERE WERE SOME PIECES THAT WERE
MISSING, AND THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY 
FRUSTRATING FOR SOME 
JOURNALISTS.
THEY DID GIVE A SENSE OF THE 
DEATHS OVER THE PANDEMIC, IF 
2.5% OF THE POPULATION WERE 
INFECTED, 5% OF THE POPULATION 
WERE INFECTED, AND THEN THEY 
SAID IF THERE ARE NO CONTROLS 
PUT IN PLACE WHATSOEVER, 
OBVIOUSLY, THAT'S NOT A SCENARIO
WE'RE IN, YOU COULD SEE AS MANY 
AS 300,000 DEATHS.
BUT THEY DIDN'T REALLY GIVE THE 
INFORMATION IN BETWEEN.
FOR INSTANCE, IF WE GET ABOVE A 
PLACE WHERE 5% OF THE POPULATION
IS INFECTED, WE DON'T KNOW HOW 
MANY PEOPLE THAT MEANS WE MIGHT 
SEE IN HOSPITAL.
WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY HOW MANY 
DEATHS.
WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE 
WOULD END UP IN THE ICU.
DOES THAT -- IS THAT 
PROBLEMATIC?
OR SHOULD WE -- I IMAGINE WE 
SHOULD WANT THAT INFORMATION.
OR IS THAT BECAUSE THEY REALLY 
THINK THAT WE ARE UNTIL 
BEST-CASE SCENARIO RIGHT NOW?
>> I'M NOT SURE.
I'M NOT SURE WHY THEY -- YOU 
KNOW, THEY PARLAID WHAT THEY 
DID.
I DO THINK IT WAS HELPFUL, BUT 
AS YOU POINT OUT, MORE DATA 
WOULD HAVE BEEN NICER, AND IF WE
LOOK AT THE PROJECTIONS, I JUST 
TOOK SOME NOTES ON MY LITTLE 
STICKY PAD HERE, IF WE LOOK TO 
THE PROJECTIONS FROM THE 2.5% TO
THE 5%, THEY ESSENTIALLY JUST 
DOUBLED THEIR NUMBERS.
THEY JUST -- FOR EXAMPLE, 11,000
DEATHS IF 2.5% OF THE POPULATION
WAS AFFECTED VERSUS 22,000 IF 5%
WAS.
THEN THEY LOOKED AT THE, YOU 
KNOW, NUMBERS OF DEATHS IN, YOU 
KNOW, MUCH, MUCH HIGHER 
PROJECTIONS.
YOU KNOW, WHILE IT'S NOT 
ENTIRELY ACCURATE, WE SORT OF 
CAN DO BACK OF THE ENVELOPE 
CALCULATIONS TO GET A BETTER 
IDEA OF WHAT THIS MAY BE IN 
SITUATIONS WHERE THERE'S, YOU 
KNOW, 10 TO 20% OF THE 
POPULATION AFFECTED.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, IT IS 
NICE TO BE SPOON FED.
IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE 
GRAPHICS LOOKING AT ALL OF THE 
PROJECTIONS AS WELL. 
>> Rosemary: ONE OF THE THINGS 
THAT THEY SAID IS THAT -- THAT 
DR. TAM SAID, AND I THINK WE 
KNEW THIS -- CANADA IS OBVIOUSLY
IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE 
EPIDEMIC.
SHE ALSO SAID, THOUGH, THAT WE 
ARE SEEING A SLIGHT -- VERY 
SLIGHT -- BEND OF THE CURVE, 
BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF CASES 
DOUBLING IS NOW AT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOW DO YOU READ THAT?
HOW ENCOURAGING IS THAT FOR YOU?
>> FIRST OF ALL, IT'S SO 
EXCITING TO HEAR THAT, BUT I 
JUST HAVE TO BRING IT BACK DOWN 
TO PLANET EARTH AND REALLY 
TEMPER THIS RESPONSE.
WE'RE STARVING FOR GOOD NEWS.
WE'RE STARVING FOR A WIN HERE.
AND IF THERE IS EVIDENCE OF 
THAT, IT'S WONDERFUL, BUT I 
THINK IT'S STILL A BIT TOO SOON,
TO BE OPTIMISTIC THAT WE'RE 
HEADED IN THE RIGHT AWAY, WE 
MIGHT BE, I DON'T WANT TO CLOUD 
MY JUDGMENT OR ANYONE ELSE'S 
JUDGMENT TO LOOK AT THE DATA IN 
THE MOST OBJECTIVE WAY POSSIBLE.
THERE REALLY MIGHT BE EARLY 
SIGNS AND SMALL ARROWS POINTING 
IT IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WE'VE SEEN IT IN BC AND ALBERTA.
IS IT LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY BC
AND ALBERTA BUT PERHAPS NOT SO 
MUCH IN OTHER PLACES LIKE 
ONTARIO?
I DON'T KNOW.
I REALLY THINK IT'S EXTREMELY 
HELPFUL, BUT WHAT'S ALSO HELPFUL
IS LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL 
SNAPSHOTS FROM THE PROVINCES TO 
REALLY GET A MORE GRANULAR 
APPROACH HERE, AND HAVE A MUCH 
BETTER REFLECTION OF WHAT'S 
HAPPENING ON THE GROUND IN 
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, 
BECAUSE EVEN IF WE ARE UNDER 
THAT SAME UMBRELLA OF CANADA, 
THESE REALLY ARE SOME UNIQUE 
EPIDEMICS, AND WE DID START FROM
THE SAME PLACE AND WE'RE NOT 
GOING TO ALL THINK AT THE SAME 
TIME.
SO IT IS HELPFUL TO HAVE THE 
CANADIAN VIEW BUT ALSO TO HAVE 
THE PROVINCIAL VIEW AS WELL.
>> THAT'S SOMEONE THAT STOOD OUT
FOR ME, WHEN DR. TAM SAID AN 
AGGREGATE CURVE FOR CANADA 
DOESN'T TELL THE WHOLE STORY, WE
ARE REALLY DEALING WITH, AS YOU 
SUGGESTED, REGIONAL EPIDEMICS, 
DEPENDING ON DIFFERENT PARTS OF 
THE COUNTRY.
THE SUGGESTION FROM DR. NJOO 
THERE THAT WE ARE IN THE FIRST 
WAVE UNTIL SUMMER, BUT NOT 
REALLY -- WE DON'T REALLY KNOW 
WHAT THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF THE 
LOOSENING OF PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES.
WHAT -- HOW ACCURATE DO YOU 
THINK THAT IS?
HOW REALISTIC IS THAT?
>> I THINK IT IS PRETTY 
REALISTIC, AND I THINK THAT WHAT
THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY BUT MAYBE 
JUST DIDN'T SAY IT EXPLICITLY IS
OBVIOUSLY WE NEED TO DO BETTER, 
AND EVEN THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE 
EARLY EVIDENCE OF THESE CURVES 
FLATTENING OUT, WE NEED TO SEE A
LOT MORE THAN THAT BEFORE HE CAN
GET BACK TO NORMAL.
AND IN A PERFECT SETTING, WHAT 
WE WANT TO SEE IS NOT JUST 
FLATTENING OUT OF THE CURVE, BUT
WE ACTUALLY WANT TO SEE THIS 
REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF NEW 
CASES PER DAY, AND WE WANT TO 
SEE THAT SUSTAINED FOR PROBABLY 
A COUPLE WEEKS AT A MINIMUM.
AND IF WE LOOK AT THE TIMELINE 
OF WHAT THAT'S GOING TO BE IN A 
PERFECT WORLD, THAT'S PROBABLY 
GOING TO TAKE US TO THE LATE 
SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.
SO I THINK THAT'S -- THAT'S A 
PRETTY FAIR REFLECTION OF WHERE 
WE'RE AT AND, YOU KNOW, WHERE WE
MIGHT BE GOING IN THE NEXT MONTH
AND A HALF TO TWO MONTHS.
>> Rosemary: TO DR. TAM'S POINT 
TOO, WE DON'T REALLY KNOW WHERE 
WE ARE IN TERMS OF THE PEAK, BUT
A GOOD REMINDER I THOUGHT SHE 
MADE WAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF 
THE THAT PEAK IS STILL 50% OF 
THE CASES.
SO EVEN IF WE KNEW THE PEAK, IT 
DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE NEAR THE END 
OF THINGS.
>> YEAH.
ABSOLUTELY.
THAT'S A GREAT POINT.
AND I REALLY HOPE THAT THE 
MESSAGING FROM SENIOR HEALTH 
LEADERSHIP, LIKE WE HEARD TODAY,
BUT ALSO AT THE PROVINCIAL 
LEVEL, REALLY REFLECTS THAT.
BECAUSE I THINK SOME OF THE 
CONCERNS MANY OF US HAD WHO ARE 
FOLLOWING THIS CLOSELY OR 
OBVIOUSLY ON THE GROUND AND 
SEEING PATIENTS AND WATCHING 
THIS FROM A PUBLIC HEALTH OR A 
CLINICAL SIDE AND FROM A 
SCIENTIFIC SIDE, WE ARE LOOKING 
FOR WINS, AND WE ARE LOOKING FOR
EARLY SIGNS, AND WE SHOULD BE 
HAPPY, THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS OF 
SUCCESS, WE HAVE TO CONTINUE TO 
REMIND OURSELVES THAT THIS IS 
JUST AN EARLY SIGN OF SUCCESS 
AND BY NO MEANS IS THAT THE END 
OF THE GAME, AND THIS IS REALLY 
GOING TO BE A BIG PUSH FOR A 
LONG TIME, AND WHILE WE'RE IN 
THIS PREVACCINE ERA, THIS IS 
GOING TO BE SOMETHING THAT SADLY
WE'RE GOING TO BE LIVING WITH, 
AND EVEN WHEN THOSE PUBLIC 
HEALTH MEASURES WHEN YOU GET TO 
THE POINT OF PUBLIC HEALTH 
MEASURES ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO 
LIFT, WE WATCH PLACES EXPERIENCE
THIS OUTSIDE OF CANADA.
THERE IS THIS PERHAPS SECOND 
WAVE OF INFECTIONS.
WE HAVE TO DO THAT EXTREMELY 
CAREFULLY.
WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT ANOTHER 
TIME ABOUT HOW BEST TO PREPARE 
FOR THAT, BUT WE'RE NOT OUT OF 
THE WOODS YET. 
>> Rosemary: JUST ONE OF THE 
SCENARIOS WE GAVE WITH THE 2.5% 
OF THE POPULATION INFECTED, 
73,000 PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITAL 
UNDER THAT SCENARIO, 11,000 
DEATHS, I POINT TO THAT BECAUSE 
THERESA TAM ALSO SAID THAT WOULD
START TO BE THE PRESSURE POINT 
FOR THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM.
WOULD THAT BE YOUR CONCERN AS 
WELL?
IF WE GET TO THAT POINT, 2.5% OF
THE POPULATION AFFECTED, WE ARE 
EDGING INTO A SPACE FOR THE 
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM THAT BECOMES 
VERY DIFFICULT 
>> ABSOLUTELY.
AND THERE ARE A FINITE NUMBER OF
HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS, HOSPITAL 
BEDS, INTENSIVE CARE UNIT BEDS 
WITH CAPACITY IN THE HEALTH CARE
SYSTEM IN GENERAL, AND OF COURSE
THEY'VE DONE EVERYTHING TO BOOST
CAPACITY, WE'VE HEARD ABOUT SOME
PLACES IN MISSISSAUGA, THEY'RE 
SETTING UP ADDITIONAL BEDS IN 
OFF-SITE PLACES IN THE HOSPITAL.
THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT 
THINGS.
WE'RE PRODUCING VENTILATORS 
LOCALLY.
THERE'S MEASURES TO LOOSEN SOME 
OF THE RESTRICTIONINGS LETTING 
INTERNATIONAL MEDICAL GRADUATES 
PRACTICE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE'S LOTS OF DIFFERENT 
MEASURES THAT ARE IN PLACE 
CURRENTLY AND IN THE NEAR FUTURE
THAT WILL FACILITATE STRETCHING 
OR BOOSTING OUR CAPACITY.
BUT, YOU KNOW, THAT IS AN 
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POINT, BUT 
THERE STILL IS CAPACITY.
THERE STILL IS A CEILING OF HOW 
MUCH THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM CAN 
MANAGE AT ANY POINT IN TIME, AND
THE WHOLE POINT OF THE PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING MEASURES IS SO THAT 
WE DON'T MEET OR EXCEED THAT 
CAPACITY.
AND YOU ONLY HAVE TO LOOK AS FAR
AS NEW YORK CITY OR ITALY OR 
IRAN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHERE 
YOU'RE STRETCHED BEYOND 
CAPACITY.
IT'S AWFUL FOR PATIENT CARE, AND
HAS HUGE PATIENT CARE 
IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF THE 
QUALITY OF CARE, AND ALSO FOR 
THE HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS AS 
WELL.
WE SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PEOPLE 
DON'T HAVE ENOUGH PERSONAL 
PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT.
WE'VE GOT TO DO IT.
WEAVE WE'VE GOT TO REALLY DO IT 
TO MAKE SURE WE FLATTEN THAT 
CURVE. 
>> Rosemary: LET ME JUST LEAVE 
YOU WITH THIS.
SO OBVIOUSLY IT TOOK US TIME TO 
GET THESE NUMBERS FOR THE 
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE, HOW 
VALUABLE DO YOU VIEW THEM IN 
TERMS OF HOW CANADIANS SHOULD 
ABSORB THEM.
>> EXTREMELY VALUABLE.
THERE'S A BIT OF A SOBERING 
MESSAGE THAT THEY HAD.
THEY'RE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE 
WORST-CASE SCENARIOS, ALSO WHERE
THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN, HAD THERE 
NOT BEEN MEASURES IN PLACE HAD 
THEY STARTED.
AND IT STILL WAS A WAKE-UP CALL.
MAYBE PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR 
THEY'RE DOING OKAY, BUT MAYBE 
THEY NEED TO KEEP DOING WHAT 
THEY'RE DOING, I THINK ONE OF 
THE MESSAGES I TOOK OUT OF THAT 
WAS, ALTHOUGH WE'RE DOING OKAY 
FOR NOW, THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR 
IMPROVEMENT.
AND WE SHOULD BE OVERCOMPETENT 
IN SOME OF THE EARLY SIGNS OF 
SUCCESS.
THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR 
IMPROVEMENT EVEN IN PLACES 
HAVING EARLY SIGNS OF SUCCESS, 
WE CAN ALL DO BETTER AND REALLY 
IT'S UP TO ALL OF USES TO PITCH 
IN TO GET THIS DONE.
>> Rosemary: DR. BOGOCH, ALWAYS 
GOOD TO SEE AND TALK WITH YOU 
BECAUSE WE'RE ALWAYS TRYING TO 
UNDERSTAND THIS AS QUUL  QUICKLY
AS WE CAN TOO.
DR. ISAAC BOGOCH, THANK YOU SO 
MUCH. 
>> HAVE A GREAT DAY. 
>> Rosemary: LET ME BRING IN MY 
COLLEAGUES, CBC'S CATHERINE 
CULLEN AND VASSY KAPELOS, THE 
HOST OF POWER AND POLITICS.
OF COURSE BOTH HERE IN OTTAWA.
BECAUSE OF COURSE AT THE TOP OF 
THE HOUR WE WILL HEAR -- WE WILL
WAIT, THEN, FOR THE PRIME 
MINISTER, WHO WILL COME OUT 
AROUND 11:15 EASTERN.
I KNOW YOU WERE BOTH LISTENING 
IN CLOSELY.
IT WAS GOOD -- I WANTED TO GO TO
THE DOCTOR FIRST TO GET SOME 
SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE ON WHAT 
WE HEARD THERE, IT TOOK US A 
WHILE TO GET THERE.
I HAVE TO SAY I PERSONALLY AS A 
JUST FOUND THE INFORMATION 
USEFUL, EVEN IF IT WASN'T 
ENTIRELY CONCLUSIVE, WE DON'T 
KNOW EXACTLY WHEN IT'S GOING TO 
END, YOU DON'T KNOW EXACTLY 
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.
WE CERTAINLY HAVE A BETTER 
PICTURE OF THINGS NATIONALLY. 
>> I THINK SO, ROSIE, AND I 
THINK WE HAVE BEEN GETTING IT IN
VARIOUS ITERATIONS FROM ALL THE 
PROVINCES THAT.
SO FAR RELEASED THEIR 
PROJECTIONS.
BUT IT'S BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRY 
TO GLEAN FROM THAT ONE CENTRAL 
MESSAGE, ESPECIALLY I THINK 
WHERE -- AND YOU CAN SEE MOST OF
THE QUESTIONS FROM JOURNALISTS 
WERE DIRECTED AT THIS POINT -- 
WHERE THESE PHYSICAL DISTANCING 
MEASURES AND THE WAY OF LIFE WE 
HAVE, WHERE THE TIMELINE IS 
CONCERNED.
I FEEL LIKE MORE MOST CANADIANS 
WHO ARE LISTENING THERE ARE OF 
COURSE CONCERNED ON THE HOSPITAL
SYSTEM IN THIS COUNTRY.
THEY ARE OF COURSE CONCERNED 
ABOUT HOW MANY OF US COULD BE 
INFECTED, AND HOW MANY PEOPLE 
COULD POSSIBLY DIE, AND IT WAS 
VERY BENEFICIAL TO SEE THE 
FRAMES OF THE REFERENCE AND THE 
NUMBERS PUT FORTH BY MEDICAL 
OFFICIALS.
I THINK ESPECIALLY FOR ME THE 
NEW INFORMATION THAT LEAVES FROM
MY PERSPECTIVE WAS MOSTLY AROUND
THE FIRST WAVE, HOW LONG THEY 
SEE THE EPIDEMIC LASTING AND THE
FACT THAT WE DON'T REALLY HAVE A
DEFINITE TIMELINE ON THAT.
BUT THAT, EVEN AFTER THE PEAK, 
AS YOU MENTIONED, AS YOU 
DISCUSSED WITH DR. BOGOCH, UP TO
50% OF THE CASES CAN STILL 
OCCUR.
SO NOW I FEEL LIKE EVEN JUST AS 
SOMEONE WATCHING -- NOT EVEN A 
JUST, BUT SOMEONE LISTENING -- 
I'M GOING TO HAVE TO LIVE THIS 
WAY MOST LIKELY UNTIL THE 
SUMMER.
AND EVEN AT THAT POINT, THEN 
IT'S REALLY GOING TO DEPEND 
WHERE I LIVE.
SO WHAT PROVINCE AM I IN, WHAT 
KIND OF TESTING CAPACITY AND 
TESTING SYSTEM IS IN PLACE, AND 
WHAT KIND OF SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM
IS IN PLACE.
BECAUSE WHAT DR. NJOO REALLY 
EMPHASIZED IS THAT WILL DEPEND 
ON EACH PROVINCE, AND THAT IS 
REALLY GOING TO INFORM THE 
DEGREE TO WHICH THESE PHYSICAL 
DISTANCING MEASURES CAN BE 
RELAXED.
SO THERE IS STILL A BIG QUESTION
MARK ON HOW THAT WILL HAPPEN, 
AND HOW THAT WILL UNFOLD, I 
THINK CERTAINLY FROM THE 
PERSPECTIVE OF THIS IS HOW WE 
HAVE TO LIVE, IF I OWN A 
BUSINESS, THIS IS WHAT I HAVE TO
TRY TO PLAN FOR, IF I HAVE TO 
TRY TO PAY THE RENT AND THE 
BILLS, THESE ARE THE TIME FRAMES
THAT I'M LOOKING AT, WITH THE 
GREAT CAVEAT THAT OF COURSE IT 
DEPENDS ON HOW WE ADHERE TO 
THESE MEASURES, TO WHAT DEGREE 
WE ADHERE TO THEM.
I THINK IT WAS INFORMATIVE IN 
THAT RESPECT, AND I THINK ALSO 
THE FACT THAT THEY EXPECT 
SMALLER SUBSEQUENT WAYS SHOULD 
ALSO INFORM OUR BEHAVIOUR AND 
CERTAINLY WILL INFORM THE 
DIRECTION EACH PROVINCE WILL 
TAKE IN ATTEMPTING TO RELAX 
THESE CONDITIONS.
>> I THINK THOSE ARE ALL REALLY 
GOOD POINTS, NOT ONLY IN TERMS 
OF HOW IT SHAPES OUR BEHAVIOUR 
WITH PUBLIC HEALTH, BUT YOU'RE 
QUITE RIGHT, ON A PERSONAL 
LEVEL, HOW YOU PLAN YOUR LIFE 
FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS IS 
IMPORTANT, AND MAYBE THIS GIVES 
US AS BETTER PICTURE.
I WANT TO THE RAISE ONE POINT OF
CONTEXT THAT MY PRODUCER WANTS 
US TO RAISE.
WE ARE CURRENTLY AT 28,000 CASES
IN CANADA SO FAR.
THE VERY BEST CASE THAT YOU 
MENTIONED TO US, 2.5% OF THE 
POPULATION INFECTED, THAT MEANS 
MORE THAN 900,000 CANADIANS.
THAT JUST REALLY GIVES YOU A 
PICTURE OF HOW EARLY ON WE MIGHT
BE IN THIS AS WELL.
SO WE HEARD THAT TIME AND AGAIN 
FROM DR. TAM IN THE EARLY DAYS 
OF THIS, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY NOT 
SEEM LIKE THAT OR FEEL LIKE IT, 
KNOWING WHEN THE PEAK IS IS A 
DIFFERENT MATTER, BUT THIS IS --
WE ARE IN THIS FOR SOME TIME.
CATHERINE?
ANYTHING THAT STOOD OUT FOR YOU 
AS VITALLY IMPORTANT THERE?
>> I THINK YOU MADE A REALLY 
IMPORTANT POINT THERE, SORT OF 
EMPHASIZING WHAT VASSY IS SAYING
WHEN IS THE TAKE AWAY FOR A LOT 
OF CANADIANS RIGHT NOW IS THAT 
THIS IS STILL EARLY DAYS 
REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER OF 
SCENARIOS WE LOOK AT.
I WOULD ALSO POINT OUT SOMETHING
THAT THERESA TAM SAID IN TERMS 
OF THE CAUTION THAT SHE IS 
SUGGESTING.
WHEN WE START THINKING ABOUT 
RELAXING THESE MEASURES.
AND IT'S CLEAR NOW THAT'S A TIME
OFF.
SHE SAID THE MOMENT YOU RELEASE 
ANYTHING, THE CHAIN OF 
TRANSMISSION COULD IGNITE.
RIGHT?
SO THE INCREDIBLE CAUTION THAT 
OFFICIALS NEED TO PROCEED WITH 
WHEN THEY START THINKING ABOUT 
LOOSENING THESE MEASURES, BUT 
IT'S CLEAR, ROSIE, THAT'S STILL 
SOME TIME AWAY.
>> Rosemary: YEAH.
AND UNTIL THERE'S, AS DR. BOGOCH
WAS SAYING, A VACCINE, 
TREATMENT, WHATEVER, THIS IS 
REALLY THE ONLY MEASURE WE HAVE 
TO PROTECT OURSELVES.
AS WE WAIT FOR THE PRIME 
MINISTER, I ONLY HAVE 5 MINUTES 
TO THE TOP OF THE HOUR, BUT I 
WANT TO HONE IN ON THE JOB 
NUMBERS AS WELL, I EXPECT THE 
PRIME MINISTER WILL BE ASKED 
ABOUT THOSE, 1 MILLION PEOPLE 
LOSING JOBS IN THE MONTH OF 
MARCH, WE ALL KNOW 5 MILLION 
CANADIANS HAVE APPLIED FOR THE 
CERB.
THEY ARE STAGGERING NUMBERS, 
VASSY, THEY ARE SORT OF HARD TO 
WRAP THE HEAD AROUND, I THINK 
IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THEY 
ARE EACH PEOPLE, INDIVIDUAL 
CANADIANS OUT THERE, THAT NO 
LONGER HAVE WORK AND AREN'T SURE
TO HAVE WORK AGAIN.
>> STAGGERING IS THE ONLY WORD, 
THEY POSTED A GRAPH THAT I THINK
CATHERINE CIRCULATE TO DO OUR 
NEWS ROOM THAT JUST SHOWED 
NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS IN 
EMPLOYMENT, AND THEN A COMPLETE 
DROP OFF IN THE MONTH OF MARCH, 
ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
DATA COLLECTED BETWEEN MARCH 
15th AND 24th, AND I THINK BACK 
TO THAT PERIOD OF TIME, WHAT'S 
WHEN THESE SOCIAL DISTANCING 
MEASURES BEGAN.
THAT'S WHEN IT STARTED TO CLOSE 
DOWN.
WE'RE NOW IN THE THICK OF IT AND
I CAN ONLY IMAGINE THINGS ARE 
EXACERBATED BY THAT POINT. 
>> Rosemary: WE SHOWED THE YOU 
CHART AS WE WERE TALKING.
I'M RUNNING OUT OF TIME BECAUSE 
I WANT TO TAKE A KICK BREAK, BUT
BOTH OF YOU WILL BE BACK IN THE 
11 O'CLOCK.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
CBC'S CATHERINE CULLEN AND VASSY
KAPELOS.
WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A SHORT 
BREAK HERE ON CBC NEWS NETWORK.
WHEN WE COME BACK AT THE TOP OF 
THE HOUR, 11 EASTERN, WE WILL 
BEGIN TO WAIT FOR THE PRIME 
MINISTER WHO WILL OF COURSE BE 
ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE 
MODELS AND THE STAGGERING 
EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WE JUST SAW 
THIS MORNING.
I'M ROSEMARY BARTON.
YOU CAN KEEP WATCHING.
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