Thursday, December 28th, 2017, the year is
about to end and the world gets ready to welcome
2018.
Like every year, newsrooms are practically
paused and news only talk about 3 basic topics:
reviews on 2017, reviews on what 2018 may
bring and news about how the arrival of the
new year will be celebrated in every corner
of the world.
However, my friends, on Thursday, December
28th, when the year seemed to have ended,
this news came out:
Numerous protests and demonstrations began
to emerge throughout Iran.
It all began in the city of Mashad, a historic
Shiite pilgrimage place, the hometown of the
supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and considered
one of the bastions of the regime.
Well, surprisingly, it was here, in this kind
of Islamic revolution sanctuary, that the
first anti-government protests emerged.
Some demonstrations spread quickly throughout
the country and resulted in more than 20 deaths
and more than 1,000 detainees.
At that time, my friends, when everything
was beginning, many people wondered if we
were facing the beginning of a new kind of
"Persian spring".
The president of the United States, Donald
Trump, seemed to suggest that:
(Iran is failing at every level despite the
terrible deal made with them by the Obama
Administration.
The great Iranian people have been repressed
for many years.
They are hungry for food & for freedom.
Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran
is being looted.
TIME FOR CHANGE!)
But... just a moment, have we really witnessed
an incipient Persian spring?
Have we really seen the powerful ayatollah
regime wobble?
Well, my friends...
No we haven’t.
Not at least imminently.
You will soon see what I mean.
However, not being at the beginning of a Persian
spring doesn’t mean that Iran isn’t undergoing
things that are very important for the country’s
future... and by extension for the entire
Middle East.
So, friends of VisualPolitik.. we have 3 key
questions.
First, why did these protests occur?
What were its causes?
Second, who lit this entire movement’s spark?
And third, what can we expect?
Will these events have any effect on Iran?
Well, let's answer these three questions and
see why all these movements show us how the
Islamic revolution in Iran, the totalitarian
regime that now controls the country, is facing
a rapid erosion process.
Let's see.
(THE FIRE CAUSES)
As we’ve seen in previous videos, here in
VisualPolitik, Iran is one of the countries
with more natural riches in the entire planet.
It has the fourth largest oil reserves; the
second largest natural gas reserves and their
Copper, Iron, Zinc, Uranium or Silver deposits,
among many other resources, are also among
the largest in the world.
And that's not all, if that weren’t enough,
it has a relatively young and well-educated
population.
For example, every year, almost 5 million
young people attend university.
In principle, it seems like this country has
an easy task ahead, to get things to go well
without much difficulty.
However, despite this, its economy it’s
a… disaster.
There’s a pressing unemployment in Iran,
especially for the youngest, who suffer unemployment
rates of 40%; inflation is in the double digits,
the currency has suffered an important depreciation
and the government has been forced to cut
several social benefits.
And this all clashes head-on with the huge
expectations generated from the 2015 nuclear
agreement.
See, there was a widespread idea that this
agreement would be a turning point for the
country’s economy:
investments would begin to arrive and world
markets would reopen to do business with Iran.
President Rouhani himself supported this thesis...
and truth is, since the agreement was signed,
things have improved.
Since many of the sanctions were lifted in
2016, not all of them because the United States
maintains several of them, oil production
has increased by 20%, public accounts have
improved and the growth rate soared to almost
7%.
However, these changes haven’t been enough,
among other things because the Iranian economy
has more holes than a Gruyere cheese.
See, corruption is very widespread, a good
section of the economy is in the hands of
corporations that are linked to politicians,
religious foundations and the powerful Revolutionary
Guard, and of course receive all kinds of
privileges.
( “It isn’t fair that a lot of Iranians
suffer while a large part of the budget is
allocated to Islamic organizations, whose
functions we don’t know that well.
Poverty takes over everything, even people’s
religion” Musa, retired and protest rallies
participant in Tehran.)
In fact, it is estimated that a bit more than
20% of the economy belongs to what we might
consider as the purely "private" sector.
Yes, only 20%.
See, doing business in this country is very,
very complicated:
See, the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking,
which measures how easy it is to do business,
ranked Iran in position 124; and if we take
a look at their economic freedom index, the
result is even worse, occupying the 155th
place.
And well, Iran isn’t even a World Trade
Organization member and maintains average
tariffs of approximately 25%.
And if that weren’t enough, the government
spends huge resources abroad, for example,
in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen, which in
addition to spending a lot of their scarce
money, these operations that fuel the investment
community’s panic.
Think about it for a moment.
Who is willing to invest their savings in
a country like Iran?
Don’t tell me it isn’t a bit... scary.
(“The main problem comes from the Revolution's
export ideology and from supporting the Shiite
groups from Lebanon to Yemen.
The system spends money on these campaigns
without taking the needs of the people into
account” Faramarz, law student and activist.)
Of course, the result of all this disastrous
model falls on the shoulders of Iran’s citizens,
especially its youngest.
And, this is important, because it is estimated
that around 50% of this country’s population
is less than 30 years old.
Now we know what sparked this protest.
Now, let’s see who’s behind all this,
who organized the first rallies.
Could it have been the United States as the
Tehran regime denounced?
Could it have been a well organized and prepared
political opposition?
Let's see.
And listen up, you may be surprised.
(THE INSTIGATOR.)
At first there were, as usual, several interpretations
about what was happening, one of them was,
precisely the theory that we could be at the
beginning of a popular revolution, a very
particular Persian spring.
However, dear viewer, soon some pieces seemed
not to fit at all:
See, on the one hand, protests exploded in
some of the most controlled and most talkative
cities in the country.
On the other hand, unlike for example the
so-called 2009 green revolution, this time
the main role did not fall on the middle classes,
which tend to be more secular and reformist,
but curiously on the humblest and conservative
classes.
And if that weren’t enough, the first protester
messages were aimed mainly at the president.
(It isn’t clear who has organized these
demonstrations, but most slogans were against
Rouhani” Palma Parhiz, Nazar’s editor-in-chief.)
See, even though elections are held in Iran
to elect the president, candidates are ultimately
chosen by the supreme leader, the Ayatollah
Khamenei, who of course, at the moment of
truth, has the last word: that’s why he’s
the leader supreme.
Well, the fact is that President Rohani is
the... let's say "reformist" and soft-sided
political leader – of course, as much of
a reformist and soft-sided politician as we
can expect in a regime like Iran’s – and
even though he may not have reached every
expectation, he did take some steps towards
a certain openness.
(Short pause)
( Under Mr. Rouhani, strict Islamic rules
have been somewhat relaxed.
Concerts have been allowed, and the morals
police are largely off the streets.
Illegal parties are usually no longer raided,
although there have been exceptions.
New York Times.)
So... if what you’re demanding are more
reforms and more freedom... attacking the
most reformist president would be at the very
least... curious.
Don’t you think?
Well... as you may imagine, this has an explanation.
Listen up.
The powerful Revolutionary Guard’s main
chief himself, Mohammad Ali Jafari, made it
very clear:
at first the instigators’ leader... was
no other than former president Ahmadinejad.
Just as you hear it.
Ultraconservative groups organized the first
protests to erode the reformists’ political
capital.
But of course, in a country where 50% of the
population is less than 30 years old, where
there is such a huge frustration and, above
all, smartphones and internet access are widespread...
let's say that contagion occurred very quickly...
within hours, the calls to protest spread
through social networks and communication
applications such as Telegram, the most popular
in the country.
Suddenly, spontaneous protests broke out all
over the country.
And of course, my friends, complaints about
the economic situation were soon joined by
demands for freedom.
Yes, we can say that all this got out of hand
for the ultraconservatives.
Of course the government didn’t take long
to react and use the force we can all imagine
a dictatorship like this has:
Detentions, considerable threats, even capital
punishment, due to rebellion, treason and
connection with foreign intelligence services.
(“As for the recent days’ developments
[in the country], enemies have been united
to create problems for the Islamic system
by using various means… including money,
weapons, politics and security apparatus,”
Ayatollah Khamenei)
The response was so big, that the government
has just announced a prohibition on teaching
English in primary schools, supposedly to
avoid cultural invasion.
As you can imagine, all this stopped the protests…
however, even though we aren’t facing a
“Persian spring”, the fact is that all
these events showed several of this totalitarian
regime’s weaknesses.
(THE WEAKNESS OF A FAILED REVOLUTION.)
Since the Islamic revolution took place in
1979, the Tehran government has made a lot
of effort to achieve a strong national identity
built on religion.
See, according to the Iranian News Agency,
there are more than one and a half million,
one and a half million!, clerics teaching
the Koran and promoting Islamic principles
in schools and in all kinds of educational
institutions.
However, despite all these efforts, the Iranian
society, which as we saw is very, very young,
is becoming increasingly secular and increasingly
dissatisfied with a country model that lies
far from their way of thinking.
As you can imagine, the Internet has played
a key role in all of this.
Well, if we add the regime’s inability to
generate opportunities for all these young
people to all this... it isn’t unreasonable
to think, my friends, that we will witness
a very fast erosion, wear and tear on this
country’s political pillars in the next
few years.
Mind you, this is harder to imagine in Saudi
Arabia... and even then we are beginning to
see it with the changes that Crown Prince
Mohammed Bin Salman is introducing, as we
saw here, in VISUALPOLITIK.
Well, Iranian society is much more open, much
more secular, independently of religion, and
better formed, so... we’ll just wait.
But now it’s your turn.
Do you think that the ayatollah regime will
be able to contain such changing force?
Will we begin to see changes in Iran?
Leave your answer in the comments as well
as in the survey.
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Also, don’t forget to check out our friends
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the vocals in this episode that were not mine!
And as always, thanks for watching!
