hey guys get on here they're very
welcome to the channel I just watched a
video of Elon Musk speaking at the world
a a conference in Shanghai about just
how close Tesla are to achieving full self driving and as a shareholder this
gets me super excited here's the clip I'm
extremely confident that's level five or
essentially complete autonomy will be
with what will happen and I think will
happen very quickly I think at Tesla
with I feel like we're very close to
level five before tomorrow me do I think
I guess I spy remain confident that we
will have the functionality for the
basic functionality below five what's
one of me I complete this year and I've
been following the advances in this base
for some time and we were blessed
because while there's at least a dozen
companies working hard trying to solve
the problem of self-driving there's at
least four million youtubers working
just as hard to solve even bigger
problem of who's going to reach level
five full autonomy first so there is a
great amount of information available on
YouTube about this subject now I'll say
while I am a self-confessed Tesla fanboy
I'm an investor first and foremost and I
want to invest in the winner in the race
to fully self-driving because I think
whoever wins this is going to change the
world and ultimately have a gigantic
market cap so I've always tried to be
the non biased as I can when it comes to
researching this stuff and in case
you're new to this subject by the way
there's essentially five different
levels of autonomy the levels range from
level zero all the way up to level 5
level zero basically means zero autonomy
and the human driver is in full control
of the car at all times the level of
autonomy then increases with each level
all the way up to level five where the
car can drive anywhere by itself without
the need of a human occupant now when
you look at all the different players in
the game you essentially realize that
there's two different strategies at play
here for trying to solve this complex
problem you have Tesla, Coma AI, Mobile Eye and a couple of others that are
essentially using cameras and deep
learning and they are currently at level
two and trying to slowly incrementally
get to level five the idea behind the
strategy stems from the fact that our
driving infrastructure is built for
vision and as humans we can drive pretty
well which is two eyes to perceive the
world and a brain to make decisions
these companies thus use cameras to see
the world and they're developing complex
machine learning systems to be able to
perceive and react to what they see
they're currently at level two autonomy
and they're slowly trying to
incrementally increase the way up to
level four
as they're machine learning algorithms
improve over time on the other side of
the fence then you've order players such
as whey mo Cruz and uber who are
essentially using cameras with lidar
which is essentially laser shooting
sensors they are trying to go straight
to level four where by they are fully
autonomous but within the confines of a
geo-fenced area once they get there and
they want to scale out geographically
now there are a couple of distinguishing
factors between these two groups the
first one and the obvious one is do we
need lidar, yes or no, the second one
then is which is a better strategy
incrementally going from level two to
level five are going straight to level
four and then scaling geographically the
third factor that distinguishes these
groups is data collection now we can
argue all day over one and two Tesla's
and other companies using just vision
are adamant that loiter is not required
and that scaling from level two to level
four it was the only true way to ever
really reach level five autonomy way
more and other companies taking a
lighter approach argue the officers they
feel that lidar is required if we're to
ever truly reach full self driving
safely one thing we can argue over
though is the data collection mechanisms
and the level of data these companies
have because the NOI mind teza has a
crazy advantage in this area they have
over 800,000 cars driving around
collecting data and in total they have
about three billion miles of data
collected to put this in context way
more only has about thirty million miles
collected
nobody has ordered on a car company
which the integrated self-driving
Hardware could possibly take this
approach and Tesla are the only company
with the required hardware and the
software even Google could not afford to
do this I mean could you imagine if you
actually had to pay for this level of
data to be connected it would cost you
tens of billions and it would take you
in years and years to complete and trust
me on this because I've done the
calculations and to put some context on
this right we know that GM bought cruise
automation
thousand and sixteen for 500 million and
we know from a lawsuit we're way more
sued uber for stealing trade secrets
that way more spent roughly 1.1 billion
on their projects from 2009 to 2015 we
also know that Zoox's raised roughly 1
billion to fund their project and is now
being bought by Amazon for roughly 1 by
a 1 billion so clearly nobody is in a
position to spend 10 billion plus on
data collection now way more counter
this argument by saying that they're
running simulation words and while I'm
sure this does provide value I just
can't imagine that is going to account
for all the edge cases all the really
really weird situations that happen in
real life that are just unpredictable
and cannot be predicted by a simulation
yes humans are able to perceive these
things and react to them in a safe
manner I think that this race the
self-driving is like a game of chess
that's been played out over the last
decade each player is making their moves
hoping to get a checkmate first I
believe though that this game was won
very early on when Tesla made the
strategic decision to equip all their
cars with full self-driving hardware and
over-the-air updates in this moved
Heslin kicked off the strategy that was
much more effective than all the other
companies and because they're actually a
car company they could actually do this
they have an insurmountable advantage
over all these other companies that are
just standalone self-driving companies I
honestly don't believe that these other
companies realize the strategic
advantage that Tesla had early on and
they just went about executing their
original strategy by the time they
realized that their original strategy
wasn't gonna win it was already too late
too many moves had been made too much
time had been lost too much money had
been raised and too much money had been
spent the winning player had made too
much ground to ever be caught most
executives in the auto industry are
still betting against Tesla they don't
think Tesla can do what they say it
again they all see autonomy arriving
slowly in geo-fenced areas using
ugly and expensive equipment not fair
now consumer cars if they're right and
Waymo's R&D makes
good sense and all the miles that
Tesla has driven won't matter because
they won't have been driven using the
right equipment and we would have to
wait on to 2030 to see autonomy in
consumer cars but if as I suspect Tesla
can deliver autonomy in the next couple
of years
reasonably and so inexpensively that
it's actually available in consumer cars
then holy shit this is a game over
and not just for Waymo but also for
Nikola and snake oil salesmen Trevor
Milton I mean when Teslas semi is fully
autonomous and Nikola's isn't then they
dont even have a chance and guys this is
just one of the reasons one of the many
reasons that Tesla is the most valuable
or her company in the world because when
Wall Street hasn't copped onto it yet
us consumer investors see the
potential for this company to absolutely
change the world guys I hope you enjoyed
this video if you did then please give
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also let me know in the comments below
if you think Telsa is gonna win the race
the full set drive and if not let me
know why I'm very curious to hear your
thoughts okay so that's it thanks very
much for watching have a lovely day and
I'll see you in the next video
