Winter might be gone but Game of Thrones is
coming. So who will be next to die?
That was the question a computer science class
at the Technical University of Munich had
on their minds. So they wrote a computer program
to answer it.
Yes, a computer algorithm is making predictions
about who will be the next character to get
stabbed, burned, shot, crushed, poisoned,
eaten or otherwise eliminated.
The class mined the book series for as much
data about characters as possible, relying
heavily on a Game of Thrones themed wiki.
They identified 2,028 characters and recorded
data such as gender, age, social standing,
the House they belong to, their relationship
status and more.
In the process, the team made some observations.
For example, men outnumber women in the series
by a factor of two to one. Male characters
are also more likely to be members of the
nobility – and to meet a violent end.
The prime age for getting your life cut short
is between 21 and 40. If you make it to 70,
congratulations! You’re probably just going
to die of old age. Social status is a wash.
You might be a King or a little street sweeper,
but sooner or later you’ll dance with the reaper.
The students created a machine learning algorithm
to study all these points of data and note
which characters have already died. The algorithm
then relied on this information to make predictions
about future deaths. And that brings us to
the moment you’ve all been waiting for:
who is living on borrowed time?
According to the algorithm, the character
most likely to depart next is Tommen Baratheon
at 97%. Bummer. Tommen is the young lad currently
occupying the Iron Throne, so he’s definitely
a prime target. But the kid didn’t do nothin’
to nobody!
Right behind Tommen are Stannis Baratheon
at 96% and the Mother of Dragons herself,
Daenerys Targaryen at 95%. As for who appears
to be safe, that’d be Sansa Stark with a
tiny 3% chance of death. Then again, the algorithm
identified Jon Snow as a top survivor with
only an 11% chance of dying.
But remember: It’s a computer algorithm,
not George R.R. Martin telling us these things.
The program isn’t foolproof. In fact, it
has a 49% precision rating for predicting
dead characters. That’s a coin flip, people,
though I guess those characters could still
die before the series is over. The algorithm
does do better at predicting who will live,
with 85% precision.
So what do you think? Do you trust this algorithm,
or would you nickname it Jon Snow because
it knows nothing? Get in touch and let us
know, and don’t forget to check back at
now.howstuffworks.com every day to hear about
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