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Ä Ä d ( D Ä Ä ( We’ve got a mess on
our hands. Just unbelievable. We ended up
in a situation, we got 600 billion dollars
invested in a war, 36 thousand killed and
wounded, and right now it looks as if we’ve
lost our strategic sense on what we’re doing.
And, fortunately, we’re in the middle of
a political campaign to select another administration
to bring into office three or four or five
hundred key people who actually will shape
foreign and defense policy going forward.
Iraq, we can talk about. Very tough situation.
The good news is Secretary Bob Gates has replaced
Rumsfeld. Gates is a reasonable man, very
experienced, he listens to people, he’s
got a sense of wisdom, he’s got a lifelong
association with Dr. Condi Rice, so now state
is back in power to begin dialogue, and we’re
starting to talk to the Iranians, the Turks,
the Saudis, and others and try and engage
some regional solution. The fellows we got
on the ground in Iraq are absolutely first
rate. This General Day Petraeus, who I’ve
known since he was 25, may be, possibly is,
the most talented person I ever met in my
life. He makes the army really uncomfortable,
“he’s not like us.” He looks like a
movie star, he can jump over high hedges in
a single bound, he has his Doctorate from
Princeton, he speaks multiple languages, he’s
charming, he likes being in the public eye,
remarkable leadership, and, by the way, the
ambassador is as good as he is, Ryan Crocker.
Much more quiet, much less visible leadership,
but fluent Arabic, 15 years in the region.
We’ve got good leadership in Iraq. The Armed
Forces have done, your men and women in uniform;
by the way, over half of them who served in
Iraq and Afghanistan are National Guard and
Reserves, without whom we would have unraveled
already. And they came to the colors and they’ve
done an unbelievable job. They are, in my
judgment, as a military historian, the most
courageous, competent battle force we ever
fielded bar none, but they are not going to
solve the problem of Iraq. It’s going to
be solved by the political dynamics and leadership
of the Iraqis. And it’s been a problem.
So going forward, you know, will we see provincial
elections in October, will there be a hydrocarbon
law, which assures the Sunni minority that
dominated cruelly this country for forty some
odd years, arguably for 200 years, will there
be some way of sharing the wealth, will they
build a federal government with strong, local
security elements of the national police?
The jury’s out. I would argue that America
is immensely safer today than it was pre-
9/11 in terms of domestic organization. We
created a Department of Homeland Security,
180 thousand people, 24 separate agencies
of government we tried to create a unified
federal law enforcement system on our boarders.
We put a decent amount of energy and resources
into it, 40 billion dollars a year. The aviation
system has gone from undefended completely
to reasonably well organized. We’ve made
some progress. Having said that, there is
no question in my mind that we remain acutely
vulnerable to terrorist strike and that they’re
out there, they’re implacable, and they
will clearly, when they see a vulnerability,
try and take advantage of it. One of the most
intractable short term problems clearly North
Korea. You and I look at a system where this
country murdered two million of they’re
own people, for God’s sake, a place run
by a sociopath, and we’re not clear how
he thinks and how he arrives at decisions,
and the economy is imploding in place. And
you’ve got a million man army which is malnourished,
and nuclear weapons and chemical weapons,
biological agents and missile systems that
can threaten the Japanese, the South Koreans,
the Chinese, the Russians, the US Military
forces, it’s a very unstable and dangerous
situation. I just think one of the few areas
where policy has been pretty darn sound, mostly
we now have six power talks and engagement
with the North Koreans. Chinese economic support
in terms of fuel, US, North Korean, Japanese,
the Japanese have now of course cut off their
aid, trying to keep this from going unstable
in the coming years.
Then we got other things. Castro’s going
to die, I’m sure of it. It was an astonishing
statement. I went down and spent 12 hours
with Raul and Fidel Castro and came back and
tried to debrief. He’s locked in 1959, arguably
our policy is locked in 1961, and so when
we goes we’re not going to have been engaged
with these 45 year olds. They say “people
have been telling us for years that he’s
going to die.” I think he’s going to die.
And I’ve been warning people that if we’re
not careful what will happen is we’re going
to end up with a half million refugees at
sea. And they won’t run for it just for
a boom box and a used car and Wendy’s; they’ll
run for freedom. Because they’ll say there’s
little likelihood of this system turning into
a law based democracy and opportunity for
me and my family, and I feel that lots of
them will run for it which will be a problem
for Cuba and the surrounding states. Mr. Chavez
we have no policy toward Venezuela except
don’t publicly be insulting to President
Chavez. I was sent down to deal with him during
the Clinton Administration. I said “you’re
a paratrooper, you go down and deal with the
guy.” He’s probably the first Venezuelan
politician that cared about the Venezuelan
people in a hundred years. He was elected
correctly by mass popular vote. The problem
is he doesn’t know what he’s doing. And
so he’s turned against the Columbian oil
industry, the Catholic Church, the Americans,
as he finds it impossible, he’s temporarily,
I would argue, buoyed up by the price of oil.
But if that fails and oil goes back to $85
a barrel, he’ll be in immediate jeopardy.
We got to sort out what to do with Mr. Chavez’s
Venezuela. And then there’s finally, we’ve
got this problem with the Iranians, which
is going to be a very troublesome one. They’re
going nuclear all this intel does or does
not say they’re going nuclear and it’s
not all that difficult to do. If you have
a second tier university physics lab, you
can do nuclear devices. The only hard part
about it is developing fissile material. If
somebody sells you or gives you 40 kg of HEU,
you can probably do it in a year or so. But
at some point we should expect the Iranians
are going to be a nuclear power and that will
be coming in five years, let’s say. And
the problem is they won’t be safer because
of it and they think they will be.
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