Boris Johnson has been in
Downing Street just two weeks
and already the talk is
of a general election.
No ifs and buts,
says Mr Johnson,
Britain must be out of
the EU by October the 31.
So, Robert, is this
real, the election talk?
And how does it square
with the exit date?
Well, I think there are two
answers to that, of course.
My instinct is that he doesn't
want a general election
before Brexit for a number
of reasons, one of which
I think he's articulated, is
that the Conservatives need
to deliver on Brexit before
they go to the polls.
Also, I think for
a lot of people
who passionately
believe in Brexit,
and that's who the kind of
people he's surrounded himself
with, do you really want
to risk Brexit by giving
the voters a chance to stop it?
On the other hand,
he's also keenly
aware of the realities of
his parliamentary arithmetic.
Just one-vote
He's got an official
majority of just one,
it's fractionally larger
and that in reality.
But nonetheless, he could
be voted down at any time.
There's an awful lot of
talk of vote of confidence
to bring down the government.
And that's led by the Remainers
in chief, Dominic Grieve,
and one or two ex-disgruntled...
That's exactly right.
I mean, and the Labour, no...
there's all kinds of
conversations going on between
the Labour party and
Conservative Remainers about
how they can stop
a no-deal Brexit.
And Boris Johnson
and his advisers,
Dominic Cummings
who's effectively
his chief strategist
now, are looking at this
and they know there's
a real possibility
of a general election.
So their question is, A, how
do we get this over the line?
But also, the other message
they want to send out to people
is, we're not going to let
a general election stop us
from delivering Brexit
on the date we set.
So don't count on a
parliamentary cavalry coming
to your rescue.
Right.
A word on Dominic Cummings
- the Rasputin, Svengali,
any other nicknames for
this man who sees himself
as one of the great power
centres in this new government?
Yeah.
Well, I mean, Dominic
Cummings, who most notably was
the architect of the vote leave
victory in the 2016 referendum,
rewarded for this by being
played by Benedict Cumberbatch
in a TV serialisation.
You see, an actor who plays
Sherlock Holmes and Alan
Turing playing you it is not
good for controlling anyone's
ego.
But he is a serious
campaign strategist
and he is bringing
real discipline
to a government of
believers in Brexit.
And people are prepared
to go for a no-deal Brexit
if they have to.
And Cummings came back
with a memorable slogan
"take back control."
But here's an irony, he
talked about take back control
but parliament should
in Britain post Brexit.
But in fact, this
government wants
to disregard a
parliamentary vote.
There hasn't yet been
a parliamentary vote
to stop a no-deal Brexit.
We certainly think it's
possible there could be,
but the parliamentary
forces have
been erratic in their efforts
to resist Brexit so far.
They have managed
the odd success,
but there's not that
many opportunities
between now and October 31 and
there's not that many vehicles.
And any chance of this supposed
national unity government
involving Remainers and Labour
and Greens taking force instead
of the Johnson administration?
Well, I mean, look, this whole
process has had more twists
and shocks than any.
So it'd be foolish
to rule out anything.
I find it very difficult to see
how you get to that government
of national unity, for the
simple reason that it requires
Jeremy Corbyn, the leader
of the Labour party.
It would either require
Conservative Remainers
to be prepared to serve
under Jeremy Corbyn briefly
to stop Brexit.
Or, since I don't
think they would be,
it would require Jeremy Corbyn
to allow the Labour party
to serve under somebody
other than him.
And I think it's quite
difficult to make that work,
on top of which you do have
some Labour Brexit and other
independents who would
not support it anyway.
And finally, one figure
we haven't mentioned
is Nigel Farage.
Do you think there's any
circumstances under which Mr
Johnson would countenance
a tactical alliance
with the Brexit party
led by Mr Farage?
Well, again, you can't
rule anything out.
I think it's difficult
for a couple of reasons.
Obviously, it depends
on when the election is
- whether it is before
or after Brexit.
I think Nigel Farage
is essentially
running another shakedown
on the Conservatives
just like he did to get the
referendum in the first place.
Because he knows that
if he stands candidate
against the Conservatives in
an election before Brexit,
what he is guaranteeing is
that Remain minded parties win.
So he's got to be
careful at this
but he could
certainly scare them
into staying true to what he
considers an acceptable Brexit.
All thinks he's really
after in terms of a pact,
if he really thinks it's viable,
is the right to stand unopposed
by Tories in Labour seats.
I think if things got
desperate enough, it's possible
but it's not something I
think the Conservatives would
want to cede and they'll
resist it if they can.
Now I'm going to put you
on the spot as a closer,
not to ask about Queen's
Park Rangers, your team,
but what bet for an
election before Christmas?
Before Christmas, I think
there's a reasonable bet.
What's that?
60 per cent?
Yeah, 60 per fent or so.
But I think the real question is
whether it comes before Brexit.
There's no question
the Conservatives will
want to go early, but the
question for after Brexit
is, what is the immediate
Brexit moment like?
If it's quite smooth,
then a quick election
looks quite appealing.
If it's chaotic, well, that
may not look so clever.
Robert Shrimsley,
thanks very much.
