hello everybody the yeah that was
completely unintentional because I was
testing some live-streaming and I was
having to set up all of the software and
stuff like that I was just basically
getting it ready it's been quite a few
years since I last did a proper
livestream and and then suddenly I see
messages appearing on the side of the
screen so yeah it was quite funny it was
like oh it works um and but by the time
I'd realized that it actually worked
I'd actually sort of just turned off and
figured out that I've actually managed
to connect everything up and make it
work so sort of I've been trying
different devices this evening just to
see if it would work correctly and it
was quite amusing to see that it
actually did but so there seems to be a
problem with the way that it's
displaying on my main screen so there
was quite a lag probably about a minutes
worth of lag between when the the test
went up or what I thought was the test
and me actually being able to see stuff
on here so that explains why you
suddenly saw a live stream and then you
suddenly didn't because I didn't
actually know that I was live which is
quite amusing so yeah I can start to see
a few people in here asking a few
questions
and I can see a couple of questions
popping up and things like that so I
will the scene as some of you who are
very loyal II appeared and have asked a
few questions and stuff I thought maybe
I would just go live anyway and have a
little chat while we're here and see if
if there's a few questions anybody wants
to answer so yes like The Accidental I'm
afraid as are all the best things in
life or so my kids say but yeah
if anybody's got a question that they
want to ask then feel free and ping a
quick question over here and I will
endeavour to give you an answer it seems
to be taking a bit of it takes a bit of
a lag and I do have an alternative
connection here that would probably be a
little bit faster but what I'm saying on
here and probably what you're seeing is
a little bit different to what so either
side of what we can see from here but
let's have a look somebody's asking a
question here I'm just gonna tip this
around slightly because I haven't really
set this up appropriately so it just
needs to make sure I've got a place
where I can actually see everything on
here
the first question was was this as a
shared your session no it wasn't I was
just testing stuff as you could tell but
what I will do is I will do a proper
session for you given a bit of time a
couple of people saying here are you
gonna do some master classes as you are
I'm actually sat in the board room at
the moment and we've just finished
getting this out with all of the
appropriate furniture and stuff so we
will invite some people over or probably
do a couple of little test events before
we do it properly and so yeah you know
we'll we'll put up a competition or
something on Twitter and invite some
people over just so that you can come
and experience it and we can make sure
that everything works the way they
should do and then we'll probably start
running some more courses again and
somebody's asking here for your football
ratings do you look at home form or only
teams playing at home or both if you
look at the way that I do football it's
very different from everything that you
see out there I generally don't look at
stats I'm trying to model and forecast
what I think will happen in the game and
then I compare that to a game that is
taking what happens during the game so I
if you look I sort of sometimes try and
explain this but I don't seem to do it
very well in some of the videos but I'm
not working to a specific system I'm
basically trying to understand what goes
on within the match how that's going to
influence things and take positions from
there but I will model that before the
match and as the match gets underway I
will see if my assumptions are correct
from the person with the unpronounceable
nickname and thank you very much for
your comments that you make on the
videos did you manage to get anything
out the wind winks market I did but not
much typically when something's that
short you tend to find it comes in a
little bit more so I didn't do much and
I think was about 40 or 50 quid so yeah
I did get a little bit out for the winks
market but not a great deal how much
money is needed to start trading you
could start with quite small amounts but
I started with about a thousand but I
suggest any time that you attempt
trading what you really need to do is
get a bank split it in half and accept
that you're going to lose half of it and
then by the time you've lost half of it
you've learned some valuable lessons and
you'll be able to progress a bit further
from there so yeah whatever bank you've
got divide it into and be prepared to
lose half of it online courses are we
going to do some more courses this year
there's loads planned we've been busy
because we're in the quieter period now
I mean relatively speaking we can devote
a bit more time to doing new educational
stuff so there's tons that we've
produced we uploaded to the bet angel
trader course this week which is about
three hours worth of tuition but that's
just on the product there's no
additional stuff available within there
in terms of trading strategies but that
was an important thing that we needed to
do and we've uploaded that this week but
there's plenty more to follow from there
it's several people James has said do
you do a meet a meet-up of any so we I
haven't done little things but it's
generally based around trade shows or
events that are organized by the
exchanges and I think it's a good idea
we probably should do some and I think
that if we did that it would be quite
interesting for people
gets together and share information but
also I think you get a different
impression of people when you meet them
one of the things this is why you know
we're gonna we're going to do a few more
events here because the the issue that I
had while I say it wasn't an issue had
an office just up the road previously
here but I always ended up getting into
arguments with the landlords about how
much it cost and all sorts of other
things and I was there a lot hours and
it was getting a complete pain so I knew
I wanted to get rid of the office at
some point and move into our own place
and that's what we've done gives us a
bit more flexibility in terms of what we
want to do and how we want to do it but
also if we invite people here just for
sort of casual events then things will
work out but it is quite small it's not
as big as a formal office but the
intention was that we didn't want to
burden ourselves with that sort of
overhead really so I imagine we'll
probably be doing a few different events
as we go through the year and typically
I can only really sort of do them early
in the week because I'm pretty quiet in
the early part of the week and towards
the end of the week it just gets too
busy to really spend much time doing
anything else there's lots of questions
actually probably more questions and
I'll reasonably be able to answer and my
wife will go mad which you realize this
time tokichi because I just said I was
going to nip upstairs for five minutes
because I'm officially supposed to not
be doing anything now just chilling
basically after a busy week and also I
was working overnight so I was up at I
can't remember was 3 a.m. or something
so I'm just gonna tweak in this and see
if I can actually get this box a little
bit bigger
here we go pop-out chat so yeah this may
be a little bit weird while I'm finding
my way around but the intention of
testing this tonight quickly was to just
make sure that I could get the
technology working it seems a bit slow
to me it's probably because I'm
streaming let's bring that down and over
here
yeah that worked well yeah I think it
was better not to do the pop-out chat I
think
they're quite a large number of
questions actually that sound I hadn't
anticipated but let's say I'm just going
to scroll these through these for a
second just see what questions we've got
that I can answer in a reasonable amount
of time
Daffy says I've been scouting for 18
months improving a little is it nearly
time to give up absolutely not because
you're about to come into the best
period of the year for doing that the
only thing I'd say about scalping is it
isn't suitable in all markets so you
need to be aware that you really need to
be choosy about which markets you want
to attempt to scalp because not all of
them are particularly suitable but when
we get to charm them and you get a big
competitive handicap you'll find those
markets are perfect for that sort of
activity so don't give up now at least
give yourself a shot man till after the
Aintree grand national meeting when you
would have had charm them and some very
competitive handicap suits Aintree to be
able to do that Phil says or Philip I
don't know should I call you Philip or
Phil says who's backing Saints to a
relegation that's the only reason that I
mentioned your name
so yeah they were unlucky against
Cardiff but obviously their form is
concerning
mark says how much bankroll do you
usually trade with on a daily basis it
really varies dramatically I think today
I mean if you look at if you look at the
market with winks that was at 450 this
morning that was trading at 109 110 and
that was an incredibly short price so I
had to use a lot of money just to get
anything reasonable out of that
particular market so I think there was
at one point one hundred and forty
thousand sat on one side of the book and
I think I stuck in a trade for about
15-20 thousand but if you look at what I
would do on a daily basis I'm trying to
think I don't know if top my head
without looking at the stats which I
haven't collected on the wall would be
the largest amount of money that I used
today but it would have been many tens
of thousands but I do tend to keep more
money in my account at this time of the
year because we're coming up to tell
them so I want to have a large amount of
money at each other the most I've ever
traded in one race is well over half a
million and that would have been at
somewhere like gentleman Darrin says
what impact do you think new regulations
on Fox you will have on the bookmaker
industry well I think it will squeeze
margins and they'll look to make up that
margin somewhere else so yeah you've got
the possibility that that could impact
us indirectly James says do you think
for learning how to read charts probably
a bit more in time I've got a bit there
are probably about five or six charting
videos but they're mainly around
designing charts rather than
interpreting them but I think that could
probably be an hour on its own in all
honesty
how do you remain disciplined while
trading this is John John's how do you
remain a discipline to our trading when
going red when do you know that you
always have enough money to replace your
bank I think it's probably slightly
different from me because I'm always
confident that I will be up at the end
of the day even if I go through a rough
spell but you tend to find especially on
racing when you start you get you often
get a sort of a bit of a a wobbly start
and then you sort of build into some of
the feature races and then it sort of
tails off a bit towards the end of the
day so if you haven't done well by the
middle of the afternoon then you're
probably not going to do well on the day
but as a consequence you learn to flex
in and out of the markets I'm usually a
little bit more cautious when things
start then I build up a head of steam
and a lot of speed and really go for it
as we move through the afternoon and
then I start to relax a bit towards the
end of the afternoon but I would say
maintaining discipline over a day a week
a month or a year isn't too difficult
but because the more markets you do as
long as you have an expectant expectancy
positive strategy the more likely you
are to end up overall so as a
consequence it helps if you know that
and you and you do it frequently enough
because then you'll be fine
and your confidence will flow naturally
anyway the most difficult thing that you
have and like it happened to me once
today where I thought I knew what the
market was going to do it went spiraling
against me quite quickly but having seen
this many times before I just held my
nerve so I think that experience is a
good way of being able to make sure that
you've retained control of exactly what
you're doing and that comes with
experience really but I generally don't
panic I'll get frustrated and annoyed by
generally don't panic when it trades
starts to go wrong Matthew says what was
your best trade can you talk us through
I did make an offer on Twitter earlier
on some of the races that I document
at the beginning of the session that I
would do a video on the next week you
don't seem to talk much about in running
racing no the funny thing is I can
actually read a race really really well
because I've watched so many of them I
get a real deep understanding of the way
that a race is being run but I sort of
did that by accident so I can't do it
it's just that especially when there are
small gaps between races I don't have
the time to do it
I do have an in running bot that I
deploy but of course you can't really
talk about that because it just does
what it does and there's not much to say
about it but if you wanted me to talk
you through or talk about race reading
once you begin to do it you become quite
natural at beginning to identify horses
that are likely to end up winning a race
and some of the clues are quite simple
but if you listen to the commentators
the commentators are generally very good
at race reading and will give you a
massive hint and if you listen to them
frequently enough during a race you'll
begin to understand how to read a race
but I'm happy to do a video on that if
you want
Elvie says I still not understanding
your response around football trading I
heard you mentioned the Dixons coal
model previously
yeah the it's it's funny actually in
football because when you look at the
way the people interpret football not
many people try and model the matches
frequently enough and I think that
that's the key because really if you
look at all football trading in any
market what you're trying to say is is
there going to be a goal or isn't there
going to be a goal and if there is or
isn't when is that goal going to occur
so that's essentially what you're trying
to look at the Dixons cold stuff is very
old now so a lot of the models that I
see and have worked with in recent years
are very well removed from from a
Dickson's Cold's model but it is worth
understanding or looking at a variety of
different methods of modeling but
essentially what you're trying to do in
a football match and this is what it
boils down to in essence is when one of
the goal is going to be scored and over
what time period
I think it's a spelling mistake here it
says have you considered doing a live
pooping chat if that is not something
that I have considered very interesting
comments there can you do better edge
off on a mobile you can but only via a
VPS very unusual questions coming
through here from dick emo I think
that's a bit of a whiner let's scroll
some of these questions back here a
little bit what what are the easiest and
most difficult sports to trade on I like
racing but I wouldn't necessarily say
that it's the easiest the reason that I
like racing is simply because it's
driven purely by opinion there's nothing
else that is necessarily required to to
think about there okay there are a few
things but because it's driven by
opinion I think that that's the purest
type of market if you look at tennis or
football you're waiting or reliant upon
an outcome at some point so necessarily
those are much harder because they're
not subjective and you need to preempt
things that you can't possibly
particularly understand at some point in
time but because of the high variability
and things like football and tennis and
cricket they tend to produce quite large
payoffs and therefore are very appealing
to people but of course the large payoff
can flip the other way as well what do
you suggest learning to help with
automation and automation and automating
trading is essentially a problem-solving
thing so I suggest rather than learning
anything in particular you work on
problem solving skills trying to
identify situations that
could occur and trying to solve the
problems that surround them walk
information is important to log and I
can't quite read the bottom out got a
scroll down and it's flowing straight
off the top so one that's a little bit
annoying it seems to be very chunky the
the chat window I'm gonna have to work
on that so apologies have have just
missed that question clean off I
apologize for that do you ever have days
where you lose money overall throughout
the day inevitably you will at some
point although it's deceptive for me
because I've been doing this for so long
it's very I say very rare it's not
impossible but it's unlikely that I will
have a losing day simply because if you
do then if you have an edge and you do
loads and loads and loads and loads of
markets in one particular day then the
chance of you ending up is actually
quite high but if you just do one market
a day then the chance of you owning up
or down you know is sort of not 50/50
but it's gonna be much much higher
however if you've got a tiny edge and
you replicate it many many many times
over the course of the day and the
chance of you ending up down on the day
is actually quite low so if you've got a
definable edge then you replicate and
repeat as many times as you can so yeah
I do have down days I'm trying to think
when the last damn day was and it would
have probably been early in the week at
some point when I was just doing a small
number of markets and messing around but
typically I try my hardest not to lose
on a day and if the day is relatively
weak then I just do less markets and
things that are more certain off so yeah
I manage it that way
there's this is a common question we get
actually answered which is John saying
can you add a live video window with
inside Bettinger one of the reasons we
can it's certainly possible to do that
I'm just going to scroll back up here
because the number of questions are
running around the bottom here so yeah
if one of the reasons we don't put the
live video window directly into the
application is that we've tested this
and we've looked at the impact that
doing that has on the underlying
application not just an our product on
other products and we realized
especially when using things like
automation that you run into problems of
the live video stressing the underlying
system so we prefer that you spawn it on
a browser that is custom-made to stream
video and not within the app itself so
we are looking at a number of different
ways of doing that but that's typically
the way that we recommend doing it so I
know that some people just want to press
the button and to bring it up on a
window inside the app but we've figured
out that that has performance issues and
problems it creates within the app
itself so it's better that you do it
independently and that's that's what I
do I'll run a separate screen if I don't
have access to TV pitches and run it
that way it's just a much more sensible
way of doing it rare cockney governor
says what does dip in and out mean I'm
not sure in what context you mean there
you may be saying dip in and out of a
market or a day if you can clarify that
I'll answer that question for you I
think you may have asked that somewhere
before as well now let's have a quick
look
what's the strangest thing you've ever
seen in training that's a really good
question I just I've seen lots of
bizarre things but it depends upon the
context in which you want to measure it
because I've seen people do strange
things I've seen people go to
extraordinary lengths to try and make
money from a trading market and I've
seen really bizarre and strange things
happen within a trading market the every
now and again the market freaks out and
you're left with this situation where
you're thinking well this can't be real
because this is just such a great
opportunity that it doesn't make any
sense so I can't believe that you know
this opportunity is in front of me and
the first few times something like that
happens you very often just ignore it
because you'd you're dumbstruck with
what is in front of you but over time
you begin to learn to jump on those
opportunities so yeah I guess it depends
upon what you're looking to say when you
when you ask that question but there are
many weird and strange things I've seen
right across the industry from front
back from top to bottom somebody saying
look there's quite a few questions
actually probably more than I can answer
quite a few questions by the next
training class if you sign up to the
Academy
you know the mailing list we will email
you very shortly and like I said we will
get people in here and fairly shortly so
that you can test everything like the
coffee machine and all of the facilities
it should be a pleasant surprise for you
when you come here because I haven't
talked at all about what we've done here
and I think the first few people here
will be surprised by what they find
somebody's said here do you recommend a
layer to that cost rating is a viable
strategy every strategy is viable as
long as you put it in the right market
the thing I would say with back to
layered Laidback strategies is
effectively what you're looking for as a
winner of loser or a race so if you
focus on becoming a good price or of a
market and a goods get a good
understanding of the way that a race
will be run then your dad will put you
into a much better position than any
variation on that strategy itself so
when I was looking at dobbing and
various other strategies it turned out
that the more and more I pursued it the
more and more I ended up in a situation
where I was just trying to find out who
was going to win the race basically or
be in contention and of course it varies
dramatically by race distance so if
you're over five furlongs you can have a
very different profile to the where
trade would play out than if you're over
four and a half months those two races
are going to be run completely
differently and have totally different
characteristics Alec says is there a
different approach to trading erase if
you have one two favorites or three
favorites or is it not sure I completely
understand that question let me reread
it is there a different approach to
trading a race if you have one favorite
to fit because you can only have one
favorite I think what you're talking
about is a very short price is probably
what you're talking about or something
that's nearly a joint favorite so yeah
you would vary it quite dramatically
between different race types so if
there's a clear favorite it's very
different from having a race that has
two horses that are priced very similar
and that's radically different from a
that have three priced very similar in
fact I hate small fields and evenly
priced short priced favorites because
it's that probably the hardest type of
race to read what type of trading do you
do on horses there is no typical trade
every market is slightly different
I will generally categorize it into
doing a very short in and out trades to
something that's much longer term so you
would tend to look at a market and
decide which one of those ways you're
going to go is typically the way you're
trying to do but I always talk about
framing a trait when you turn up at a
market you're saying this is where it's
traded and that's where it is at the
moment and this is where I think it's
going and that's where it's going to
stop so you tend to frame your trade in
that manner so sometimes that range
would be quite large
sometimes it would be quite small so you
vary your trade according to where you
think that's going to be
red cockney governor has said the market
example horse race you dip in and out so
I think what you're trying to say here
is you go in and out of the market so
usually when I say dip in and out what
I'm talking about is I go into a market
I attempt to trade a market but I'll go
into it for a short period of time and
then I'll close the trade and and then
drop out again and then reassess things
so typically I'm going to be looking for
a move of some sort and when that move
is complete I'll just stop unless if I
can see a valid reason for going back in
and trying it again John says it's the
running automation throats are slower
than Guardian yes the automation with
inside Guardian is much much faster
because it can refresh at 20
milliseconds and it's quite lightweight
in Excel you have to go through another
layer effectively but obviously you've
got more flexibility in Excel so you
could swings and roundabouts there but
we've enhanced consistently the amount
of automation that you can do in
Guardian and there's another enhancement
coming up after charm and with the
intention of trying to replicate
everything that everybody needs to do so
if you've got a suggestion that you want
something to go into automation it's
worth putting up on the form because we
do read them all we may not comment on
all of them because you don't have set
false expectations and sometimes it's
difficult for us to do all of them even
though they look quite simple we have to
line them up so all goes in line with
everything else that we're trying to do
there's a good question here which says
is the bulk of your tennis and soccer
strike football trading strategies in in
play typically they are tennis prey off
accounts for a negligible amounts less
than 5% of total volume 19 95 percent of
it is in play football strokes soccer is
a bit different because you can trade
that quite actively pre off I don't
can't remember the number of top of my
head now it's probably 25 75 pre often
in play somewhere around that that level
so it is perfectly possible to do it and
the person asking that's from Australia
where they can't do that
and you have my sympathies because I
know that that is a big problem for you
somebody's RC do you ever trade
basketball funny enough I have if the if
I'm over in the US I've taken a real
interest in how the odds move on
basketball in the u.s. because I wanted
to understand if there was somebody in
that time zone trading it because if you
go to the US or North America I should
say then Betfair is legal in Mexico and
you can see that there's a lot of
activity on NBA NFL and NHL and stuff
like that so you can tell that there are
people actively trading out there so I
have looked at it but not traded it
seriously I have messed around a bit
there's somebody on the forum that's
been posting up a variety of bits on on
basketball and I have modeled basketball
actually but I haven't really done
anything seriously on it because of the
time difference by imagine somebody in a
different time zone would be able to do
quite well of that do I trade you as
horse-racing bits I have done it and you
can do it but the liquidity is low and
the start times are pretty random so I
generally don't put much focus on it the
Kentucky Derby stroke derby isn't listed
on that for any longer but it's
typically at least once a year I will do
the Breeders Cup so I can trade it and I
have traded it profitably but it's not a
major focus of mine I'm gonna scroll
down and get some more questions
I'm gonna have to fix this some pop-up
window when I do the next livestream
because it's so slow if you wanted to
make one pound per race for learning
which strategies scalping is the easiest
one to understand but most people get it
quite wrong because people cut out for
losses too frequently in the market
nowadays is very jiggly it does this all
of the time it's very annoying and you
have to overcome that sense of panic
when the market does that but if you put
an order in the market wait for it to
fill and then decide if it's safe to put
another one in the market that's quite a
nice way to learn how to trade initially
so but yeah you know don't get too hung
up on one strategy or another what race
do you find the easiest to read
competitive handicaps and very short
priced favourites they make money on
this till the cows come home what do you
think impact vos liquidity haven't been
found none based upon what I saw when I
went over there in October
most of the legislation I saw of being
filed was for sports books and nothing
to do with exchanges so unfortunately I
don't think immediately there's going to
be any real change there which is strike
rate on horses I have said this quite a
few times before I generally depending
upon the quality of the market and how
while I'm trading someone about 70 to 80
percent of races I will win on and if
you look on a day like today my average
winds were pretty large I try and
contain losses as much as possible what
part of that is by getting into a good
position and managing it well that's a
good question is saying I think I'm
trying to run before I can walk am I
better off getting adept at one type of
strategy and then moving on to another
and by answer simple answer to that yes
focus on one thing master it and then
move on that's exactly how I started I
started with one strategy figured out
the markets that it didn't work very
well in and then started adapt adapting
it and using other strategies to fill in
those gaps in those markets and then
gradually worked myself to the place
where I can just
do whatever market I like and I know
what strategy will apply to it I like I
like this question here do you think
financial technical and are such
candlesticks moving averages MACD and
support resistance there are some things
that work well and other things that
don't work so well so the time scales
are so compressed it's sort of like
trading a foreign exchange or an option
market
it's like trading foreign exchange on
steroids or an option market just before
expiry so if you're used to trading
those types of markets and you've got
indicators that you feel comfortable
with in those then you could probably
replicate it but quite often some of the
stuff that you see in financial markets
doesn't quite translate because in a
sports markets everything's a closed
loop effectively something goes up here
something's got to go down there whereas
in a financial market everything can
rise and fall at the same time even
though it's not logical
how long how would i aughtta motivating
strategy based on price change before
post time in horse racing I'm not sure I
totally understand that question
the automation I should make the point
here is 95% of automation comes after
you've created the strategy I know that
sounds weird but you come up with a
concept and then you test bug debug
refine it put it into the market bring
it out edit it redo it again make sure
it works properly and then you dis
strategy then deploys and runs on its
own so 95% of the work on automation
will be in that period but obviously
once you've got a bit of automation that
works then you can just let it loose and
it will run permanently for you and
that's the greatest feeling in the world
but you'll have to go in and tweak it
now and again we are it's always front
loaded all of the work they do on it is
front loaded and the design of the
strategy is relatively straight forward
but then making it work exactly the way
that you want it and adding a few
variations in and debugging it takes a
fair amount of time but once you've gone
through that pain then you'll get paid
back 100 fold over on automation with
second positional Champions League
winners market I probably it's generally
on the out right if you look at Cup
competitions you you get a tier of seeds
when you get seeded competitions you
tend to find it harder to do really
interesting trades because they tend to
focus on getting all of the top seeds
towards the end of the tournament so you
know it's a little bit harder in some of
those markets where things are seeded I
prefer markets where the participants
are completely random in Brooklyn in
terms of progression there's a question
here about Bitcoin crypto and sites I
don't use any of those and I'm not aware
of any that I could recommend I'll be
completely honest with you
my wife says you have a calming voice
well maybe you'd like to me to record
some calming words for you just if we
get to paired thank you for something
some sometimes the political markets and
stuff like that can be a bit odd but
generally where there's liquidity
there's nutrient opportunity so I'll
blunder into those markets and
especially where there's lack of
information you know special markets and
all of these celebrity TV shows and
stuff I'll often get involved in as well
so typically you'll find opportunities
popping out all over the place but I
don't actively search for them somebody
says something to me I read a newspaper
article or something and then suddenly
an idea clicked and I know what's do and
I just go into the market and start
working on it from there can I do
cricket trading better yep you can try
to everything you want and Aaron says I
think snuke would be good market but
liquidity is surprisingly yeah low and
and yeah I agree
anything that's to people where the
competition's going to be relatively
close you would think are perfect
trading markets and I haven't checked
out snooker for some time it's been a
long time since fluid to that but I have
been interested in darts for walkers the
liquidity and dancers growing do you
model horse-racing to estimate better
starting prices I don't but I can so I
have modeled horse-racing because I got
interested in how the handicapper works
because I wanted to see basically what I
think the true price is this is always a
criticism I'll have four pundits and
tipsters is that they don't what they
should be doing is giving you prices
that they're willing to back or lay out
or what they think the true price is
within a market and you very rarely see
that I would love a service that would
allow us to do that are the bigger fish
in the horse-racing markets than you
it's this funny question because I want
to go no but you know obviously can't
know every single participant in the
market but I do know a lot of them and I
know a lot of the data that sits behind
it within the markets so I don't believe
there are many people that are probably
as big as as I am within the market the
problem that I have nowadays
trying to get as much money through as I
can without influencing the price so
that's that's the battle that I have to
face on a daily basis how long did you
trade via the Betfair interface before
switching to software based trading
about two two years I used the bet fair
websites before switching to some sort
of trading aid apparently Simona Halep
lost at 102 today no I didn't trade that
unfortunately I'm hoping that you did
somebody's put in here what's your
favorite tennis trade I love it on
tennis when a player looks like he's
about to win because typically I'm
looking at that point for if a player is
sort of just drops his shoulders a bit
and gets a bit more relaxed and tries a
couple of crazy shots because it's
amazing in tennis how fast that can turn
around
so when players look as though they've
almost definitely won I'll very often
shovel a bit of money back in at very
short odds if I detect that they're
getting a little bit slack in terms of
closing out and a match
as an interesting question here says
professional traders must have
strategies to reduce or reverse traded
losses
you'll be surprised actually that you
know I wouldn't do that
my judgment on when I get involved in
the market is trying to minimize the
amount of loss that I've got through my
entry not through doing something crazy
to try and reduce the losses so I don't
play that sort of game really at all I
know some people try and reduce losses
by trading out of them one way or
another but it's not something that I
play desert orchid who said this message
is now in play I should have said that
and I will on the next live chat I'm
going to I'm gonna start with those
words because hopefully the next one
will be planned rather than unplanned
now why did you choose sports trading
over financial markets oh it's funny
actually because when I originally
looked at doing trading of any sort I
thought I was going to leave my job and
do financial markets so I'd already done
quite a bit of trading and I've done
some investing but one of the things
that changed my mind was when I picked
up the book about Warren Buffett I
realized that actually probably what I'd
be good at would be longer term
investing but the problem you've got
with that is you need money to invest it
to make the money to be able to invest
longer-term so it was a bit of a
catch-22 and I did try trading financial
markets short-term to start with but I
was hopeless that I was really rubbish
at it but the sports trading sort of
fitted in nicely with my philosophy of
doing longer-term investment so trading
on sports and then investing the money
sort of worked pretty well but because
of my ability and my knowledge has grown
significantly trading short-term on
sports I've been able to start picking
off a few opportunities short term on
financials but predominantly I find
sports trading relatively
straightforward and easy to encapsulate
and then the money hole invests
typically although I'm not adverse to
taking short term positions now
so yeah I'll try and do all if I can
what's the future for trading of the
next 10 years the if you have a Google
if I get that let's see if I get this
correct the kittens index because the
kittens index sort of gives you a good
guess time as to how long along
something will go so read up on that and
but basically to really paraphrase it
quickly it basically says if something's
been going for a long time now it
probably will continue for a long time
in the future so I think exchange and
sports betting and trading is going to
be around for a long period of time now
it's impossible to put it back in the
box as it were but I think it will
change because the the question here as
well as will automation take over I
think automation and automating some
element of what you're doing is a
natural progression of the trading
because when I started I was completely
manual and using the Betfair website but
obviously it's a lot more advanced now
so I think it's inevitable that it will
push a bit more in that direction I
think eSports somebody asked asked about
here yeah I've kept watching brief on
eSports a good friend of mine is
involved in that industry he's quite
senior within the gaming industry so
I've been leaning on him for a bit of
advice and knowledge in terms of what's
happening to these sports but it does
seem to be growing and it seems that
that will become a little bit more
dominant and you will probably find
people gambling on it almost certainly
any plans are making quickly to trade it
for bet angel I've I've done a lot of
work on cricket in the background
actually just out of sort of interest
really because I don't really have time
to trade cricket properly but I did
become quite fascinated with t20 and the
way that t20 matches play out so you
can't rule anything however
and Daniel has hit the nail right on the
head hair is put since awe-striking
markets are more volatile now but a few
years ago do you think the closing of
they're still efficient and the very
short answer is no I don't I think that
the market is tighter in terms of book
percentage than ever but I think that
the markets are not anywhere near as
efficient as they used to be the
volatility and the range in which prices
trade is way out of what you should
expect because if the markets accurately
discounting information you would not
see some of the moves that you see now
so there's a whiff of panic in a lot of
markets there for us I think that the
prices are more out of kilter now than
they've ever been the closing price is
probably reasonably efficient I did
actually measure when I went to leopard
stance to a talk recently somebody asked
me a similar question and Ike and I gave
a very specific answer to that I'll
speak to the guys and see if I can
release a clip of that so that you can
get a direct answer I have asked them
for some clips already but we're still
waiting for a response on that
somebody says are you an actor actuarial
scientists in a different life probably
is it possible to trade pretty much
football more than one hour before the
start of the match the I tend to get
involved about two hours out but
obviously that period around when the
team sheet is announced is critical and
that's when the liquidity floods in it's
the same in every sport when information
becomes accurate and available in the
market liquidity will grow significantly
and if you want to make money you have
to think about how can you preempt that
how can you be ahead of other people in
terms of anticipating what's likely to
happen and part of that will be acting
on something really quickly when new
information becomes available how far
away from the start of race can you
predict the and move in odds on the
horse well you can when you turn up in
the morning you can actually tell the
likely range of where the horse will
trade so as possible to do that you can
predict how much money is going to be
traded in the market where that money
will go and likely what influence that
will have on price the only problem that
you've got is the further away you are
the bigger the range of uncertainty so
as you get closer and closer to the
start of the race you can be get more
and more certain and as a consequence
liquidity Rises almost ties in with was
the with a prior question actually so
you can get a general feel for what
could happen but it's only as you get
nearer nearer to the race and more
information becomes available will you
actually be able to work out exactly
where the price is likely to go
somebody's asking if there is a way to
bet from the US and its heavily
restricted we're not even allowed to
develop software over there for the
exchange in the US it has to be you have
to be a New Jersey resident in New
Jersey and a verifiable New Jersey
address to be able even to be able to
use the exchange so any chance of trying
to do something clever there is not
possible the unconscious at I'm here
because I am going to be in trouble for
doing this so what I will do I promise I
will do this is all of it hopefully I'll
get a copy of the questions that are
coming in and I'll be able to answer a
few more of those but we'll do another
live session at some point somebody's
asked about pattern form here for
dobbing and I must admit I don't have
any particular experience in that so I
can't confirm whether that's true or not
somebody asking can you rank variables
in order of importance it's sort of
there probably may have with racing is
its there's so much that interacts is
that sometimes it's difficult to capture
all of those variables in one neat form
but there are certain things that
determine the outcome or the the way
that a race is likely to play outside
the pre off or in place so the and there
are certain repeating patterns as well
so you know a handicap a very
competitive handicap tends to exhibit
the same characteristics again in the
game because the concept of a handicap
is that they're a very competitive one
is that nobody really knows who's gonna
win the race so you would expect those
patterns to continually repeat so um
yeah you can begin to put all of those
variables together to identify
characteristics that occur within a race
and somebody saying can you use
automation with a small Bank would it be
effective yeah I think probably that's
where you want to start all all of the
automation I've ever started with
started on the absolutely tiny stakes
and then gradually built up words from
there so yeah I would actually recommend
you styled something small especially
when you're in the early stages because
one of the problems you have with
automation is every now and again it
does something unusually you're thinking
well why did it do that
so they're using a small stake to start
with in a small Bank is generally a
sensible way to go so there was a
strategy I started with minimum stakes
to pounds I'm trying to my born it was
2011 and over the years it just
gradually went up and up and up and up
and up and up and now it's on very very
large stakes but it still sits there
churning away doing stuff for me in the
background so yeah I think you have to
start somewhere and especially when
you're in that early stage of testing
something and he may not have captured
all of the possible outcomes it's worth
using small stakes but there shouldn't
be able to barrier to moving up to
bigger ones
and a good question here how many days
do work averaged out over a month
enormous amounts if you look at today I
went to bed last night about 11:30 ish
and then at about it must have been
about 3:30 I got back up again so I
didn't get that much sleep but as we get
towards the weekend I get busier and
busier because that's where all the
opportunist years but then on a Monday
or a Tuesday I revert to a normal
schedule and probably take a bit of time
off and sometimes I'm quite lazy really
but I will spend the time looking at
spreadsheets and messing around with
data and doing stuff like that but it's
it it's like it's like running a
business really which is unfortunate
because I also have to run the best
ain't your business so it's like running
to businesses and that puts a lot of
time pressure on it but thankfully you
know this is all my family of ever none
and they sort of know what the deal is
and also I've been very keen to build up
an environment around me here that
allows me to do all of that and you know
mix in all of the other things that I
need and wants to do as well so I feel
quite lucky from that perspective and
also you know the last job that I had I
was doing exactly the same thing I'd be
working on major projects that would
have my attention continuously and even
when I came over weekends the phone
would still be ringing because somebody
somewhere had a problem or there was a
factory somewhere that needed an answer
on something so it doesn't feel that
much different from me so it's it's the
only life I've ever really known to be
honest but I will say that I do enjoy it
I wouldn't do a job if I didn't enjoy it
so it's a pleasure for me too to mess
around with the spreadsheet and look at
something can get a little bit inspired
or something that I've discovered there
somebody said while you're doing on
Saturday night well it was completely
unintentional to be honest and usually
at Saturday evenings when the last race
finishes in the afternoon that's it I
think and in fact you can see I've got a
beer here so I had actually started
having a few beers and done usually have
a game of FIFA or something and just
totally chillax so
one of the things I wanted to try and do
was test the live-streaming and how I
would do live-streaming and then by
accident I went live so I thought I may
as well do one so completely
unintentional and I have to decide when
would be the best time to do a live
streaming I did ask that question on the
community a little while ago actually
another question here actually there's
two good good questions and these will
have to be the last ones because I
really must go and like watch a movie or
something and have another beer and and
do those things but it says dis
automation need constant joshing and and
that does automation need constant
adjusting and I would say yes it does it
needs constant tweaking I'm constantly
fiddling with it all of the time
sometimes you fiddle too far so you
start with something can you modify and
modify and modify and then it stops
working and then you have to start
rewinding it to the point where it
stopped working what wasn't so effective
so I date every single file that I ever
modify so I'll start with a base file
and then I'll modify something but the
previous file gets archived and dated so
that I can actually wind it backwards
and forts and if the new version of it
turns out to be not very effective then
I'll just rewind it and start from
another point because you'll learn on
those things as you go along but I'm a
constant fiddler I was doing it today
when I was trading I was modifying some
automation in the background because I
thought I felt I could make it just a
little bit better and one of the
questions on here says do you ever use
your bank to get out of trouble never
never never never never I take the view
that I make a decision and it's either
right or wrong and I'll take the
medicine there if I get it wrong and
hopefully I'll get it right more than I
get it wrong and that's where the profit
comes from I never attempt to try and
dig myself out of a hole never what I
will do is
probably rounded off here because it's
been an hour actually and my intention
wasn't to do this at all and I want to
get another beer in before Rome I head
up to to watch a movie with my wife or
something so I'll end it here but I will
do another one and the intention of
setting up the equipment in the room was
to actually just test it and make sure I
did have something that would work so
I'm going to have a look at the video
afterwards as well and I'll probably
publish it at some point maybe tomorrow
and I will do a proper formal session
and I'm a tidy up the room a bit before
I do it and get myself a little bit
better organized but thank you for
popping in because I didn't publicize
this and we've had a lot of people
coming in here and asking questions so
thank you for taking your time out this
evening to come in and ask a few
questions as well so I'm gonna sign off
here and say goodbye but hopefully
because I'm getting some good feedback
here I think it's probably time that I
did another one of these as well and
hopefully I can answer a few more
questions for you anyway take care have
a good one gotta figure out how to turn
off now
I'm sure to be around here somewhere
I'll edit this bit out when it goes live
here we go
