 where? United States. Florida. Florida, north of Florida, in the farthest place 
 from the ocean that you can think. One may see it as crazy, i.e. to live
 in Florida, and so far away from the ocean. 
 However, this place is a college town. This is the place of the University of Florida. Therefore, it is far away from the ocean. 
 Do you know why? Hurricanes.
 When hurricanes arrive  - trust me - it's much better 
 to live in the farthest place from the ocean. I bet. As a dad of four children 
I would have suspected that they have 
 built the university far away from the ocean, so students could have not got distracted by going to the beach 
 and fool around. Instead the reason is definitely much more serious. Certainly. The biggest damage an hurricane 
 can cause, I had found out by living here. Namely, when an hurricane hits land, when 
 it hits land, it sucks up water and then it drains the water all at once. 
 and this phenomenon is called "surge": it rises like a backwash, a tide, 
 which, however, is driven by the power of the hurricane and it unloads 
 the whole water, which can realistically reach as far as - I don't know -
 3 meters. Unbelievable. It is unbelievable. And since I've started talking about 
 hurricanes, now I take this opportunity to say another thing.
 may I? Go for it. In the meantime, I want to 
 thank you. There are thousands of people connected 
 who want to greet you, and thank you. What a special guest! That said, I really want to
 thank you, because you might be overwhelmed by so many interviews. In this exact moment, I suppose 
 everybody is reaching you. Actually, I was wondering if even President Trump is contacting 
 you – "Ilaria we need you!" –, right? You have tight schedule. Actually, the mayor of New York contacted me.
 Really? And what did he say? "Help"? Someone was looking for me on his behalf 
 But I was not available – I was in the middle of something else – but I managed to give the input I wanted to give to 
 mayor of New York. Incredible. You could have said instead that 
 You were busy with Marco Montemagno. "Sorry, I don't have time for you." Lol. I was busy for real. Lol. 
 Well, going back to hurricanes, the most important thing 
 I want to tell you, during this – I would name it – 
 personal recount of what could be a slightly wider perspective of this issue,
 is that there are hurricanes in Florida. 
 I experienced the first Floridian hurricane in 2016" 
Irma. Irma hit Tampa area, where there was 
 A crazy surge which caused the evacuation of 5 million people. During
 hurricanes you can follow very precise government guidelines. 
 they tell you exactly in which hurricane zone you are in regard to evacuation: zone 1, zone 2,
 zone 3. They also tell you: you from zone 1 go here, you of zone 2 go here and there, 
 Evacuation happen during the window of time established by the government. They also manage the 
 traffic. Everything. All the logistics. You got  
 where I want to bring this reasoning. Now I would like to say something 
 that I'm really happy to be able to communicate to so many people. When Irma 
 happened, 5 million people evacuated - which is as if Sicily evacuated -
 do you know how many deaths there were in a category 5 hurricane? 
 21. Most of them – I don't remember how many -
 were elderly people in a nursing home, who were accidentally left without the 
 ventilation system and therefore it was very hot and there were 
 such fatalities. Out of 5 million people evacuated, 21 dead.
 In the same period I was informed that there was a downpour in Italy, 
 a tremendous water bomb somewhere I honestly don't remember 
 in Puglia. 10 people died flooded, in some cellars  
 Or something. My point is to show you what it means 
 To be ready. To have a plan for these disasters. Also, I got 
 the d.p.C.m. on my mobile phone - I actually receive it five times before the d.p.C.m. was 
 Even finalized. F.Y.I. d.p.C.m. is the decree of the 
 prime minister who declares the state of emergency. This decree was sent  
 Some hours before to my phone - do not remember exactly how much earlier -  
 And as a consequence there was a traffic jam, even in Milan train station, 
 et cetera et cetera. Many people left. 
 And it was a mess. Trust me: if you want to save 5 million people 
 during an hurricane you don't do these things you can't 
 allow them to happen. If a traffic jam happens
 everything falls through. Emergencies are real. We cannot joke around. 
 Thousands of people are dying, so - 
 Forgive me if I getting upset about it - it's quite easy to criticize what we are asked to do 
 "Shall or shall not I wear the face-mask?" when 
 smart and responsible people do not realize that their actions can 
 have a domino effect on thousands of other people, I find this 
 really unacceptable. Unacceptable. When people ask me what predictions I can 
 Give about Italy, I do not know what to say. How can we make predictions if there has 
 been an escape of people, as a consequence of a leak of information. I am not referring to some people specifically 
 I don't even remember what day happened I don't know 
 who these people were and what they where doing. Are you referring to the escape which took place 
 in Lombardy, namely the rush to the trains to reach the south 
 Well this was my opening to tell you that what we are living is 
 serious stuff. We need to take it seriously. 
 Right. Ilaria, first I would like to ask for some advice and then I would like 
 that you help us summarize the situation where we are 
 today. Maybe you can give us an overall picture from above, I mean 
 An overall view of this phenomenon and what is changing. However, the first thing
 I wanted to ask is about England, which brings us back to 
 what you were saying about being prepared. I was surprised to hear 
 a week ago the British government saying that "we don't stop"
 basically I am talking about the "herd immunity"
 "We will do the right thing at the right moment".
  From my perspective, on one side there is Boris Johnson, on the other side Italy where everything is closed 
 A complete disaster. Now the attitude of the British government has already changed: 
 tomorrow school will close, public events have practically been suspended, pubs etc. 
 so they immediately accelerated and they changed their mind. However, it is really difficult 
 for people who are not experts - I am myself not a scientist, I don't know 
 anything about viruses or healthcare or how to manage such situations. I 
 empathize with the politicians who have to manage such a crisis 
 for the very first time. I was wondering anyhow
 how much you think these different lines of action make sense, 
 or all countries should have a common line, namely 
 we all stay home, differently than what we saw in the government shift 
 In England. Well, I have a clear position in this regard, 
 Italy was 
 the first Western country to have this infection and, as you said, 
 beyond who made the decisions I challenge anyone to be in the shoes of any politician nowadays.
 Let's be honest here. Let's thing of those people who are now beyond our decisions
 No matter which politician you favor. 
 I challenge anyone to be in such a situation, dealing with a virus that is 
 unknown and as far as you know - as non expert - you could think that it could kill 50 
 per cent of humanity - which is not true, because this is not one of those viruses. 
 This virus doesn't have that engine, it doesn't have that chassis, it's not a virus of that type 
 but you do not know at the very beginning of a crisis. Therefore Italy did what it had to do 
 - do not take my words to literally because I live 
 on the other side of the world... Italy put in place 
 restrictive measures which were then followed and continued by others. 
 what are restrictive measures for? 
 They to reduce, to flatten the curve, that is 
 so that fewer people get sick all at once and therefore we choose to  
 Slow the spread to prevent overtaxing the finite resources, therefore 
 To avoid the total collapse. Because if we all get sick at once  
 The system collapses. it's a - let's say - a controlled management. this is what we are 
 trying to do. It is clear that in order to do such, we had to 
 put a brake on the economy. From Italian citizens' perspective 
 I challenge anyone to repeat 
 who Boris Johnson said. Boris Johnson said: "Dear British fellows, 
 thousands of us will die and our loved ones 
 if thousands of loved ones die, they will die. 
 He was very direct about it. Therefore, if any of ours 
 politicians would have come up with something like this, he/she would immediately have
 lost all the support. We are a catholic country, 
 we live in a country that protects life, and I am talking about our 
 cultural heritage here. Therefore, we take care of everyone for everything. For example, 
 my mom is someone who has had a 
 series of health accidents. She is now 82 years, more or less,
 I wish to be like at 82. However, my mom had two or three 
 health accidents. In other parts of the world, there is not so much care for the 
 elder population. For example in the United States,
 Aging problem is a something that concerns - let's say - more 
 the wealth more than the needed. The last ones do not have often the possibility to age well. 
 Anyway, that said, what did Boris Johnson 
 said? More or less, he said "let mother nature take her course 
 I am willing not to put in place extraordinary measures for the 
 containment of this infection, mitigation of this infection and therefore 
 I am willing not to put all the measures in place that I have for flattening the curve." 
 because if I put all the measures in place that I have for this, the market could crash. 
 - I think - he said "I am willing to take twice, 
 three times, four times more higher, - we don't really know yet - 
 the number of deaths in other countries, however
 I will not keep country at home. His reasoning 
 is from a theoretical point of view. It is also standing from 
 a practical view. There are indeed some perplexities. At the base of this reasoning is that 
 if we let the virus circulating freely within the 
 population, considering that two thirds of the cases, at least, are asymptomatic, 
 We produce antibodies, as if they were the red traffic lights that stop the virus. 
 That is, every person who is infected, even with symptoms, and who has 
 antibodies (the so-called herd immunity: I produce antibodies,
 you produce antibodies, he/she produces antibodies) and we carry on a "wall of 
 people," who have a shield in front of us ("the antibody shield"). However, sometimes in some diseases such a 
 shield is made of plastic, is useless. 
 We don't know this yet, because it is the first time for this type of antibodies . 
 - Got it. - In short, it seems risky, but it looks like (in England)
 they have already changed the approach as for now, they are quickly 
 closing here and there. That said, Ilaria, something that might turn useful is 
 on the one hand the repetition - I know is exhausting for you since you keep on 
 talking only about these topics -, however, people, in my opinion, always struggle 
 to really understand these issues, and then it would be useful, step by step, to 
 summarize the situation, to give a picture up-to-date, let's say - wait, I am not sure 
 what day we are, I lost my count - on March 19, 2020: "coronavirus". Here is where we are at right now. 
 Let's understand where we are at, and in which direction we are going
 So, I would like to invite all the people who are connected - how many are you? 
 - we have 7 thousand people connected at the moment. Also greeting to you all 7.000. - So, 
 follow me, I will bring you on a star, 
 come with me, sit on a star, outside of planet earth - you don't have anything to loose 
 you're home, I am at the center of the tour - again, you are stuck 
inside the house. So close your eyes, and come with me on a star and 
 let's watch, let's look at planet earth and zoom and... 
 we arrive at a forest in Asia. During daytime it doesn't happen 
 much, at night we begin to see bats that 
 come out. Bats that usually live their life, in the middle of the
 forest, those kinds of forests that if you want to access, it is a insane endeavor 
 - forests, forests, forests, namely places that are segregated, 
 that are segregated, virgins, uncontaminated.
 therefore this bat is doing his own business in the middle of the
 forest and, at some point, he hears a noise out the bush and someone comes out, 
 someone with a net that catches the aforementioned bat and all his family, and then this person 
 brings them home, and he sleeps with the bats, then such a person brings the bat 
 in the city, and he sells it in a market; in this market the 
 bat, which was doing his own business with the virus, that is,
 the bat had a virus within him, but these are bat problems, at a certain point, 
 in this mess of bats like him, who come from 
 another part of the jungle, or from another, animals of 
 all types, ranging from frogs to snakes, 
 they are all captured in water bowls,
 insects, birds, skunks, and then there is also the pangolin - you know what a
 pangolin is - well, I hear talking continuously about it, but tell us - the preparation with the pangolin 
 then the pangolin is an endangered animal - poor pangolin - 
 it is an animal that can be considered like a dinosaur, actually it is a mammal, but it is all 
 covered in scales, so according to mother nature, the pangolin was supposed to 
 have hair, but hair became scales, evidently because
 It needs it - who knows why? Maybe because it lives in a certain climate where it has to protect himself, 
 and it's made of metal, it doesn't move as much - this poor pangolin 
 is an animal as big as a cat, more 
 the less, people hunt it, the pangolin live in africa they hunt it, and it is a delicacy 
 In some cultures, including the Chinese one, and 
 then they use it for another purpose, they take the pangolin scales and use them in the 
200
00:20:18,260 --> 00:20:22,540It is true and it is not funny.  
 they seized 10 tons of pangolin scales a year ago, 
 - the illegal pangolin traffic. - I am not kidding. Ten tons. Do you know how many 
 pangolins have been speculated? - So, let's start with the bat, and in this regard 
 I have to stop you for a second, because there are billions of us, commenting
 asking if the story is true, the bat story, how do we really 
 know that the virus doesn't come from the lab, from goldrake, how do we know 
 that the virus comes from a bat? Because there is a genetic code, like a barcode 
 Viruses have a barcode, and like a barcode,  
 when you put it on the scanner, it tells you this is equal, equal, the same to this 
 one, or it tells you that it is almost the same, but not exactly the same, 
 And then you make genealogical trees, so this virus is a 
 virus that looks like a whole bunch of viruses that are in the bats 
 Of a certain geographical area. - Got it. - Look, it be nice that 
 we did not dwell on this specific thing because of the conspiracy theories 
 - but maybe we talk about it after - sorry for the interruption, but it is clear. The bat. 
 The bat arrives and they put it in a cage together
 with the pangolin, and that's an Asian animal an African anima,  
 they cannot do such things, biologically, you are putting together 
 realities that are separated by oceans, by thousands and thousands of miles, 
 and the virus from the bat got into the pangolin, some Chinese has pulled 
 - I am simplifying obviously, and I applying down here - 
 imagine a market operator found the pangolin to sell 
 The pangolin pooped on his face, 
 The operator sold to the pangolin and the virus came out of the pangolin poop. 
 Or from the bat poop, from the stink skunk, it doesn't really matter though. 
 However, from one of these animals that got infected within the live animal market, 
 where very poor people who have nothing live
 a group of people got infected, within the market. These people are poor, 
 poor people, that is, those who do the cleaning within the market, they live 
 inside the market, are people who live in inhuman conditions. 
 Those who live in such bad conditions, usually do not have access to medical treatment, and 
 so what they did after the pangolin poop 
 the sneeze of the pangolin into their face, they did not really pay attention to it. 
 They cleaned up but then they start having a cough and a fever 
 after a week, and what do they do? If you, Marco, were a Chinese gentleman who lives in 
 a very extreme and poor condition and you sneeze 
 at the beginning of December in China, what would you do?
 Either I will have honeycomb I refer to Chinese medicine, I go to see a family doctor...
 But just for a sneeze?? - no no for a sneeze no. I will resist. 
 It will pass. - Sure, it will pass. But then, you start to see everyone sneezing, 
 Everyone sick, and you think: "wait let's go to the doctor." They look for a 
 doctor and what do you think the doctor would tell them? 
 "Go home, it is just a cold, it is the flue. 
 I mean, it is mid-December, in China, a group of people with some respiratory symptoms,
 By the way, did you get vaccinated for the flu? - Nope. "So you got the flu." 
 And they are sent home again. Then ten, hundred, thousand, each time more, 
 The doctor sent them home, the infection gets bigger, the wave of the infection comes 
 to the attention the Chinese health authorities.
 what do Chinese health authorities do? 
 they look for what they know, so they say "flu?" "no wait" 
 "parainfluenza?" "no" "is it a bacterial pneumonia?" 
 "no" this no, this no, so they went to look for the causative agent 
is certainly not an easy thing, I mean 
 they had no tools to go and find this virus they had to go and 
 explore, perform discovery techniques to understand what happened 
 because this coronavirus was inside the bat until one 
 month before, so they took a bit of 
 time, when they realized it was a coronavirus, coronaviruses do not 
 usually cause a very serious symptomatology, it was believed it could be 
 contained. We had SARS, we had MERS, the other two emergencies 
 in short, however, when they realized that they did not get it, they locked 
 down. What happened in the meantime? We are always on our 
 star, however, since stars can sometimes tell you about the past 
 let's make a quick rewind to 8 thousand 
 years ago, 8 thousand years ago man 
 domesticated bovines and in the process of domesticating the bovine, which 
 means man drinks milk and that man gets dirty with the blood of the bovine 
 it means contact with the bovine, so another of these phenomena occurs. 
 The rinderpest virus, which is a virus which also was eradicated  
 one of the big successes of veterinary public health. The 
 rinderpest virus makes the leap from infected species to humans and you know what it becomes?
 check if anyone knows it 
 -let's see, let's wait, there is always
 a 20 second delay between your message 
 - I will take a break in the meantime 
 - let's see, I don't know, wait some said a pangolin 
 measles, some say measles, the plague, smallpox 
 - who was it?
 - many said it, Gabriele, Isa 
 - so the rinderpest virus has become the measles 
 virus with homo sapiens that moved step by step 
 in the man hunter prairies, as the gatherer he is
 Measles virus has gone around the world on foot together with homo 
 sapiens 'trucks trucks trucks' he went all around. Now I give you another 
 thing to tell at dinner tonight. Measles was not so present in the 
 peoples in south america, the indigenous peoples, when the conquistadores 
 arrived, they died far more from measles than from the war, the Indians, 
 the locals, the aztecs 
 also maybe even north american indians, now i don't remember this 
 so well, for sure, it wasn't there in South America and therefore measles has 
 found all the green traffic lights again because they entered a new continent 
 - and it infected everything, okay
- then why did I do this reasoning, because
 this happened 8 thousand years ago 
 and now let's rewind a little closer: 100 year old Spanish flu 
 the Spanish flu is a very serious influenza that has occurred around 
 1920 and the end of the First World War, a virus with a lot of teeth, 
 very aggressive that has caused between 20 and 40 million deaths and has gone around the 
 world in two years. I mean, homo sapiens with measles took 5,000 years, Spanish 
 flu took two years, the coronavirus took eight hours then. 
 Back to China, we came to understand that in middle 
 December this virus was already circulating 
 significantly in china, the authotitis, authority, authorities 
 - you are tired Ilaria I know, I applause for the resistance 
 your resilience, 8 hours and coronavirus is in china 
 Chinese authorities have tried to contain it etc. etc. 
 So flights remained open so imagine that there are in china 
 the great-grandparents of the viruses that we have now, the great-grandfather has made three sons in china 
 he sent one south to japan a bit there, he sent 
 one to korea, one to australia. A line, that's what viruses do
 a viral swarm, are you understanding? Has gone down, a viral swarm has come towards 
 Europe and a viral swarm made the rounds on the Pacific 
 because the most affected area of ​​the united states is the east coast, I mean 
 the west coast, california, where there is a lot of chinese movement 
 so in the month before the lock down people moved
 I don't know how many because we should see the data of the 
 passengers and honestly I have no idea, however in a month do you think that not 
 at least a thousand infected Chinese have moved? 
- we do not know the numbers but 
 certainly a lot of people going around, like always 
 - no? and therefore the virus began to circulate 
 the virus began to circulate in Italy probably in the beginning 
 of January and I believe there is also evidence that this virus was 
 mistaken for a slightly more difficult flu 
 no, because when I talk to hospital doctors many people tell me 
 "look, we thought was a particularly serious flu 
 this year, so it is likely that it has been around for a long time 
 however, let's go back to the star 
 - I'm here, I'm calm on 
 my star
- from my position 
 observing the phenomenon, something that should turn out to be 
 very clear is that we have altered a system first of all by invading 
 the spaces that were not ours, now everyone is mad at the 
 bat, but sorry it was us who went to bother 
 the bat, not the bat that came to bother us 
 point number one, point number two, we created a second risk factor that 
 is to not only to bring animals out and invade spaces but also to make
 It happens inside megacities, megacities are explosive 
 because in the megalopolis there is poor hygiene, poverty, inequalities 
 etc. etc. etc. Not only have, we also have taken some 
 large syringe and boarded planes, unknowingly 
 obviously, with a whole series of people on these planes who have these syringes 
 of virus, which spread to thousands of people. The virus, poor thing, already he just wanted to be 
 quiet inside bat, already we sent him inside a pangolin, where it did not 
 want to go, it pissed the pangolin, the skunk 
 and all the market. Not only it didn't want to infect the people 
 and now it has to infect because it does what it has now 
 finds itself having to infect thousands hundreds of thousands perhaps millions of 
 people that he wasn't programmed to do, because he would have done it just 
 step by step
 - ok 
 - this is the story
 - so you're saying that 
 since you told this excursus, the first thing that comes to my 
 mind is that obviously this will be neither the first nor the last time because either 
 we take a step back as mankind and say ok let's not 
 bother bats and avoid going overboard, which is unlikely to happen 
 therefore it means that we will see other events of this type, right? 
 - in fact I have just written a piece that is looking for a home that you can 
 call "The Next New Normal" that is the next new normal because like 
 you rightly say, you can not go back 
 now, there is not only Wuhan, there are many megacities, we need to reverse this 
 trend and put in place immediate response mechanisms 
 there are some today, we have the technology, I am in florida, you are in london and 
 we have people who listen to us, today, that is, look, I tell you 
 one thing, we are still thinking in an old way because we are still 
 running behind it and today as we have injected a speed into this system 
 look this is something that is very complicated and perhaps subtle but this is 
 the real breaking point, the real breaking point is the speed that we have 
 injected into the system, a speed that is brought by technology 
 it is linked to technology, but which is not compatible with the system that hosts it 
 biology moves at its own rhythm, not at the rhythm of the stock exchange or of the 
 planes. Understand what I am saying? We also made a
 mess here, because luckily this is a coronavirus and it's not that 
 they are so smart usually, those are viruses that I have worked with 
  many years ago, these are viruses that are not particularly 
 Resistant, there are much worse viruses 
 let's say that from some points of view they are a bit dumb, a little fragile 
 - so in our bad luck we were also lucky to have caught a not-so-bad virus 
 - they have petals, if the petal falls like the one, what's it called, the beautiful and 
 the beast, and it only takes one petal 
 to fall and he is screwed 
- ok so I'm sorry you actually say 
 That today we have a technology that allows us 
 to be more predictive and play in advance compared to 
 the pandemics that will come next or next similar events or in fact if we 
 we continue like this, we will inevitably find ourselves from time to time having to 
 face the new mess with more or less tremendous viruses 
- in my opinion 
 we have to realize that we are part of the problem 
 just because we created this situation and we must make ourselves 
 account that this problem will not go away however this problem 
 is something crazy, because an inanimate microscopic being 
 really just a grain in the gear, this grain which is not even hard 
 But is soft, in the sense that it is not a diamond grain, has entered 
 in the gear and blew all the gear up. This brings us back 
 in my opinion as if we had shovels on our feet and brings us back to say "look 
 we are part of nature" therefore if a virus comes to us, the virus 
 takes us, we are not 
 immune
- of course 
 I think this is a very important signal so I think it will create a 
 different awareness and maybe there will be movements of awareness 
 for let's say limit some of the damages that have generated 
 I will start somewhere else to get to answer your question 
 certainly no one was prepared, neither us, nor in the governments because there wasn't 
 an organization at European level, there is no organization at the national 
 level, we were really walking in the dark 
 this can't be, it can't be, it can't be that cases are registered 
 in a way in one place, and in another way in another place. Therefore we need a plan 
 of pandemic preparation as God commands 
 we have to do it and we have to respect it and each of us has to do it 
 so that he can buy his masks in peacetime 
 - sure and then it should be something shared globally 
 and it's not that every country does whatever it wants no because that's the problem 
 that you see day, france acts one way, england in another, the US
 at the beginning says it's nothing, we put a wall, everyone has
 gone a bit on his own and it becomes difficult to manage a 
 situation that is global. I will jump onto an economic topic 
 I was talking with someone named Forchielli today 
 and rightly the reflection was in the moment in which Italy leaves 
 this story, because this problem gets solved 
 the problem is that maybe the united states are further behind and then American tourism 
 still can't travel because it's behind, and then it's up to 
 another country. Thus everything is on a checkerboard and so 
 the impact is enormous but from all points of view not only 
 economic, and therefore, Ilaria, what is done in this situation? 
 a good pandemic global preparation strategy is ok 
 I imagine there is one 
 - let's say it should be updated because it did not work very well
 - okok 
 - the criteria, the WHO that declared and didn't declare, declared and didn't declare. Why? Because the criteria are 
 obsolete, those things were written 10 years ago, 15 years ago and 
 now air traffic is another matter so it comes 
 to have a collective awareness that it takes effort in 
 this direction to make pre-pandemic plans here is where this should be done 
 but here you are talking about entrepreneurs, I tell you that first of all we 
 should develop a mechanism for us as a community 
 Italians or the European space agency 
 I'm talking about this type of efforts, we should prepare 
 laboratories that already exist and that compete on some things 
 there are five laboratories in the world, 10 that develop different production lines 
 of the vaccine, of the vaccine can be produced the recombinant vaccine, the 
 vaccine expressed in this way, the subunit vaccine, the live vaccine 
 attenuated, so it would be necessary in times of peace to already have 
 virtuous people who work on vaccines so that when the problem comes 
 they work not against each other but in synergy 
 - sorry for interrupting Ilaria, is it because in this 
 time for the development of this vaccine, which from what 
 I understand it is not that it arrives tomorrow but it will take at least a year if they find it, but
 everyone works on their own, every country every pharmaceutical company tries to 
 develop it and says "her I am, I am the first one, I have it" or is there a team work
 somewhere?
 - no, there are pharmaceutical companies more or less subsidized
 from governments that work on their own and I find this really stupid 
 without considering the diagnostics, we have not touched on the topic 
 of the numbers in this epidemic, the numbers are a mess 
 you know why? Because Chinese have developed 
 a diagnostic test, a molecular probe 
 that goes looking for a genome, without testing this probe on a certain number of 
 positive samples and a certain number of negative samples
 so it was validated in the field but has not been validated according to standards 
 this it is a crazy difference between a validated test and an invalidated test 
 - okay, this is the test made in China, and the other tests that are being done right now 
 are they validated tests or the same test everywhere? 
 - I haven't expressed myself well, these tests derive from a recipe
455
00:45:10,190 --> 00:45:17,010
 published in China then reviewed by the WHO, they give you a recipe but 
 it's not like anyone has tried to see if these tests work 
 You are given a recipe and they tell you "this is the recipe these are the 
 parameters" but those who work in the laboratory know that the laboratory conditions are 
 determinants, the tests must be run in the laboratory before using them and 
 we did not have time to do it, so i am very very skeptical about 
 the data and then there are all 
 the asymptomatic ones, we talk and go between groups of 
 patients without having any tool validated in that category 
 to test. We talked about antibodies before, now we begin to 
 see tests but they have not been validated and that is an emergency so it is 
 an emergency without having anything ready so I make an example, I have a dinner 
 with 10 businessman and I did not do grocery shopping, I have to come up 
 with something, they will eat plain rice
 - clear, so this
 means that in fact all the data that we see continuously 
 can have a noticeable variation delta based on how I'm going to prepare 
 the ingredients of that famous test recipe, but we take them
 for certain 
- now I will give you an example
- can you cook?
- I interviewed Davide Oldani today 
 a starry chef and I said I'm very bad, however, spaghetti with tomato sauce I can do 
 - okay you are very bad, the thing is irrelevant because in an emergency even if you are really bad you have to do it
 "here is the recipe for salmon soufflè, the one that must grow and 
 become like a cloud, do it" "what do you mean do it" "you have to do it" 
 okay so you take it, you do it but then you tell me "but sorry but which yeast 
 Do I have to put? The Bertolini yeast? Or in that other 
 I put the eggs? How big do they have to be? The flour?
 so then these are the laboratory conditions, the tests of 
 laboratory must be made their own in their own conditions and then there are 
COSTANZA
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 for example yeast a is not equal to yeast b and so as well 
 enzyme A is not the same as enzyme A that someone else sells. Therefore, there is the need to take moment to understand this. 
 The data, as far as I am concerned, must be taken in a completely  
 indicative manner, they can show trends, but OK, maybe there is someone listening 
 who knows and understands about statistics and mathematics 
we are comparing data orginating from different samples, I mean, what are we talking about? 
Certainly. The problem is that we citizens take them with certainty. When the New 
 York Times, the Corrierie, the Guardian say that today there are ten thousand infected cases  
 at that point you say "that is the data"
 For example, maybe the 10000 cases are all coming from the same place because there is a structure that is infected. We do not 
 have a picture of what is happening in Italy. We could have 
 the picture--How could we have the picture?-- Do we want to have the whole picture? you swab a representative sample 
 of the population. Not in the infected areas, 
 there is no need to do this in infected areas, we know it's there. We need to understand why in naples 
 you do not seen it in the hospitals, Milan and lombardy, Milan is it the outlier, that is,  
 the exception because there is something that aggravates the situation there or is the first of 
 a long series? if after milan falls paris falls london falls rome 
 falls palermo 
 for now we can only hope for the best for what will come
 reminds me of a story during the war 
 that there was this plane full of bullet holes and an expert is aked to
 say how we can we strengthen it. Everyone looked at the holes, where they were 
 and say we have to put more protection there instead, the experts 
 rightfully says, no you don't have to look where there are holes but where there are no holes 
 because those are non-fixable parts of the plane. Therefore, the method and analysis are important 
 but if you were to say, sorry for returning to the current situation, it is 
 clear that there is a preparedness problem, there is a data analysis problem, 
 and a lack of alignment on what are the 
 precise parameters and precise variables to analyze. 
 Given the current situation, what do you think will happen next
 now that this is our current big concern? We already know that we need to be better  
 prepared for the next round of viruses, but, now, which one you think is the best 
 way to go? what is the best strategy? -so, let's go back 
 to our star, OK? let's go back there for a moment 
 everyone to the star, everyone in the chat to the star
 our virus 
 we are the ones that placed it before this hoard of beings to be infected 
 so, if someone thinks that these type of infections can be controlled, 
 you should forget about it. The only thing we can do is 
 try to manage its spread. My projection is that this virus 
 could become the new human cold virus. There are currently 4-5 
 coronavirus circulating among humans, which are responsible for causing the cold  
 these viruses, where do they come from? I don't know 
 they probably derive from animals, no? animals host many coronaviruses, but if  
 they entered the human population a thousand years ago, how can we know? 
 therefore, I would like to think, even if with total uncertainty, given that we have no data, 
 I like to think that this virus could become the next virus causing the 
 human cold, and, therefore, there will not even be a need for a vaccine. 
 My concern however is, that the virus wanted to become the new virus causing
 human colds, however, at its own pace. We instead have powered it to turbo speed. 
 Therefore, I don't know if this goes well from an evolutionary point of view  
 or if it can originate scenarios difficult to control, it is possible that the virus will have some surprises in store. 
 That is, it is a virus that first had to infect a  
 small number of people before it exploded all over the world-- why do you say, 
 and I have already heard you saying this during another chat, saying that maybe there might not be 
 the need the of a vaccine. But why? because this virus 
 will at some point stop spreading, or will slow down?
 No, you might get it and be asymptomatic or it will make you sneeze
  excuse me, do you get a flu vaccine? 
 No-- No, okay, you should get vaccinated. Everyone, you should get vaccinated and then I will explain you why you should.
 So, you do not get vaccinated against the flu...If the coronavirus was a virus that... okay, you don't get vaccinated against the flu. 
 okay, would you get vaccinated against a cold? 
 No --No, then, why would you get vaccinated against the coronavirus if it manifests itself as a cold? that is, if it becomes the 
 next cold virus, the vaccine will not be needed. Why would you 
 get vaccinated against the cold if you do not even get vaccinated against the flu? first, get vaccinated against 
 the flu and then we can think about the cold. -- Absolutely, however, 
 to date the problem is that the harmfulness of this virus, 
 at least from what we can see, is that it is not like a normal cold 
 or the flu. The problem is that currently it has a different strength than 
 what it could have after circulating in the human population
 and becoming a normal cold, or I'm wrong? 
 Of course, it has a different strength because there are no red traffic lights. First, there is no 
 herd immunity, second, it does have a different strength, but I won't 
 let you slip on the tragic mistake that you made. You should stop using  
 the two trivial words "simple flu" 
 the flu kills a lot of people every year 
 if this virus was as dangerous as the flu and would overlap 
 to the flu the number of dead would be many many more. 
 The influenza virus is a primary pathogen. The influenza virus causes 
 a cytokine storm, that is, the influenza virus is capable, as a 
 conductor, of making all the trumpets play, all the instruments of 
 that orchestra that send signals of destruction to all 
 the body tissues. The flu hurts. You feel very sick with flu because 
 the flu sends "poison" to all your
 organs. This is the reason why you feel bad for a week when you have the flu and then you take another 
 ten days to recover. So please, let's start a campaign to 
 raise awareness that the flu is not a "simple flu". This is like an influenza 
 and let's thank God that it is not like the Spanish flu nor as the Asian flu 
 nor like the Honk Kong flu from 1978. 
 In my opinion, when one says in the vernacular language tha one has a trivial flu 
 one thinks, a doctor thinks, okay, it is like a cold but with some fever  
 this is more or less the logic. But, I missed your point 
 when you were saying to get vaccinated against the flu but there might not be the 
 need of getting vaccincated against this virus because the moment we reach herd immunity we should be 
 fine. I'm confused, because then, Boris is right 
 Boris is right in his logic about herd immunity. 
 Do we reach it after we are vaccinated or can we reach it even before?  
 If you resist, if you survive, you reach it. -- Wait, let's pause for a minute-- Explain us.  
 Let's talk about the flu, okay? Why should you get vaccinated against  
 the flu? because it makes you stay in bed a week and that is already cumbersome 
 let's face it, then if your 
 son gets infected, that is, there are a whole host of other reasons, but if your grandfather gets infected, 
 he would probably pass away, along with someone else 
 that is, there are clinical presentations of the flu that severe. Okay, then  
 you could be inside a hospital, you could be one of 
 those who haven't gotten vaccinated and has been infected with the flu and then went 
 to the hospital, clogging the healthcare system and taking up essential services 
 that should be used only for those who came in with a pneumonia 
 that is, those who came in with a pneumonia that is difficult to control. 
 While you could have stopped the flu and you didn't stop it when you could. 
 First of all, you introduce a diagnostic doubt. Had you been 
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00:58:31,300 --> 00:58:36,100
 vaccinated, there would be no doubt, number one, --ok the field is already limited, okay. 
 Number one. Number two, if you get vaccinated and then 
 you get the coronavirus, you won't get the flu, therefore, you avoid a double 
 infection. It is possible that two viruses are worse than one. If you get the coronavirus, and on 
  top of that a flu infection 
 I guarantee you, plus you are a male and this virus hits males harder, 
 I guarantee you that next time you will think twice. 
 So, when the coronavirus situation exploded, I said that the only thing we can 
 do is get vaccinated againts the flu, because we lessen the risk, 
 In the meantime, there will be less people getting sick, in the meantime 
 there's less confusion in the diagnosis, and meanwhile we avoid people who could prevent a respiratory clinical picture 
 end up in the hospital.--It is clear.--Now the coronavirus vaccine, 
 Do you know how many are the  
 patients in Italy that have died only because of the coronavirus?
 No, I have no clue, also because I never understand who dies with the coronavirus 
 or because of the coronavirus.--Okay, now I wil explain you. But then I need to leave 
 because I'm really tired. It's from this morning at 
 6 that I am giving interviews. Okay, so, we were saying...--How many are the 
 patients that have died. --How many are the people who have an 
 acute viral pneumonia. Okay, this is the question, how many 
 are the people who have died only due to coronavirus, okay. Until
 yesterday, do you know how many there were? -- Two? ahh, Okay.
 Today, I think I have read that it is 17. All the other people who died,
 they had in average 3.4 comobordities, which means that they were either cardiopathic, 
 diabetic and obese or immunosuppressed. In a healthcare system that is  
 struggling, people with a fragile health who go to that hospital, are at risk 
 due to the overload, the fear of outbreaks occurring inside 
 the hospital, of getting infected with the coronavirus, but they die because they are 
 very sick people. So, what I mean to say and the great 
 difference between lombardy and the rest of the world, is that in lombardy there is 
 a number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus which is completely different 
 compared to the rest. So, there must be something in 
 Lombardy that renders the situation particularly serious, because in the others 
 regions of italy this is behaving, this is 
 manifesting like an influenza infection 
 that is, a flu infection with 10 percent fatality is really high, do you understand? 
 as what is happening in lombardy. There are flu infections, such as the Spanish flu that have 
 produced a very high mortality, and it took time and so on and so on, but in the rest of
 Italy is not like that, and, therefore, what is there? there is the need to understand it in my opinion, 
 understand it and it's not easy. Look, I really don't criticize anyone and if I have 
 used some slightly witty terms I do these to
 defuse the situation. But it is a very complicated situation, very  
 complex, where we only need 
 collective responsibility, that is what we need. Korea and China 
 they stopped, and Japan, they have stopped the number of infections because, because, they put in place 
 draconian measures that have been respected 
 which has not happened in Italy. After this, I'm getting ready to wrap up.  
 One last question that so at least the 8,600 connected people, which by the way have 
 increased instead of decreased, they usually go down slowly during the transmission, while this time they have increased 
 at the end of the night we will arrive to 60.000. No, the last 
 question is, looking at the end of the year, what do you think the situation will be 
 in which we will find ourselves at the end of the year? will be a situation where we tell Ilaria, 
 fantastic, do you remember when we last spoke and now we are doing fine and everyhting is in place
 blah blah blah, even if we still do not have a vaccine. What is the situation that  
 you picture at the end of the year? also to make people understand  
 what the future is holding for us. 
 I am perfectly aware of the devastating energy that this 
 grain of sand that ended up in the mechanism of the world brings to us. If we wil talk again  
 in December, we will be two completely different people because 
 this black swan will have turned our lives upside down. 
 For example, think of divorce, of how many people divorce. 
 the people that were locked inside the house, how many people will spli; 
 how many familiar explosions, that is, of quarrels, etc. etc. will occur. 
 This is a moment of great crisis in my opinion because so many situations  
 that are at tipping points, when there are shocks, 
 they are the first to tip over. There will be people who will suffer, there 
 will be people who will die, there will be companies that will close 
 there will be families that will implode, and, therefore, I am much more worried 
 honestly about this, and for this I want to make an appeal to all our 8,000 
 listeners, look that this is everyone's problem, we cannot 
 just play around. If it is not us, it will be the neighbor. Then what 
 we have to do and where I we should be, let's say, where would I like to be in December. I would like to
 be in December with a vaccine ready if needed 
 and in my opinion if it will be needed, it will be used only in at risk categories, 
 which makes sense because people like you,
 that is, if the risk of you getting sick with the coronavirus  
 is lower than with the flu, do you get vaccinated? 
 no, you don't get the flu shot so why would you get this one.  
 Therefore, healthy populations, especially women, because women seem to be less  
 vulnerable, in my opinion, for them, there will be no need for the vaccine. If 
 there will be, it will be used in certain categories or maybe 
 we will all use it, I don't know, we will have to see if the virus shows its teeth.
 I hope not for everyone. In December we will have antivirals, there 
 will be a therapy. But, in December, there will have been a great jolt of the institutions
 and moments of great tension  
 internationally. Africa, India, just a couple of words. Just two little words.
 Just like that, when we are about to close? you just mention  these "small" words. 
 how many Chinese, in your opinion,how many Chinese went from China to Africa 
 in a month? In Africa it is not possible to take a flight 
 that is full up to 1/3 of people from China. 
 So, my appeal is to be a little more understanding towards 
 people who are dealing with immense responsibilities. It is easy for me,
 here I am speaking, but I am not the one commanding and deciding. The things I say 
 do not have direct consequences. So, I'm luckily in a great position. 
 And I try to maintain an objectivity and a lucidity 
 from the outside because people who are inside, risk of loosing pieces of the puzzle 
 Therefore, I believe that 
 in December, this energy, the energy that this event contains, one 
 great energy that can be completely destructive. Instead, 
 I would like to see it transformed into constructive energy, that is, where there will be 
 some collapses that can be people's physical collapses, can be 
 collapses of companies, can be collapses of institutions, 
 I'd like for people to understand that this is the real, the real new 
 great challenge, and, therefore, we already start thinking of this new reality, for example, we say oh well, we should 
 diminish air traffic by 50 percent. 
 Okay, so an epochal change, I would say epochal compared to what 
 we are used to. --Now I ask you to pay in kind. 
 What should I send you? the apples from Brighton?-- you publish on your website, I don't know how it works, 
 the link to "beautiful science" --I've seen 
 the video, the one on the importance of science, with Giorgia and Bocelli 
 I've seen it. "Beautiful science" for the people who are listening go to 
 search on youtube, look for "Beautiful science, Giorgia, Bocelli" and the theme is the 
 importance of science and education. Also I will make this payment in kind, I will post it 
 You know why? Because that is an inspirational video on the importance of 
 science, done on the year of Leonardo's five hundred years with the 
 Italian song "I live for her", which is a very powerful music that says "I live for
 science" because science is done by people, not by 
 machines, it is made by women who have bang their heads 
 against computer algorithms, bioinformatics, the thermostats that
 break, the machines. We have to defend our 
 scientists, be proud of our scientists, don't shoot at them 
 and say that they are nerds of losers or geeks. 
 There are also those, but I mean, you can find them in other professions as well. 
 I would like it to be a pride of Italy, from Italy to 
 our science for our scientists and launched from the perspective of 
 a new world in which one must have include science in the debate 
 everyday use this, let's say this Italian teaser like a cry of 
 that is, we have a science, a research that is fighting tooth 
 and claw, we have a biomedical compartment that is 
 under great tension and we must be proud of them, 
 and of all the other Italian researchers. We want to generate one million views in one 
 year. If you give me a hand, you do me a courtesy, it was prepared for schools but 
 now that schools aren't there and it was also made for events, and 
 there are no events --online-- the pandemic has ruined my project. 
 Ilaria, thank you very much! we will keep in touch. Greetings to all 
 people who have been with us and thanks again! 
