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PROFESSOR: OK, so
welcome back everyone.
This is going to be the
first class we're actually
talking about poker strategy, so
this should be pretty exciting.
So the first thing we're going
to learn about is position,
and this is only
three slides long.
So positions have
different names.
They're put in two
different groups,
and a lot of how
we describe what's
going in a particular
hand is going
to be relevant to where
people are sitting.
Why?
Because people in
a late position
get to act after people
in an early position.
And in general, the
positions are broken
into four different groups.
There are the blinds,
who pay the blinds
and are first act on every
street after a pre-flop.
There's early position,
middle position,
and late position, where all
these positions have names,
except middle position.
Starting in the big blind,
we call it under the gun,
under the gun plus 1,
under the gun plus 2.
You could also describe
these as seat 1, 2, 3, 4
all the way to 9 or 10,
although I don't really
like that because I they all
have pretty unique names,
and they're descriptive
enough to just use those.
So middle position is labeled
one, two, and three, and then
around the button you
describe their relation
to the button, where
either you are the button
or you are cutting
off the button.
And then some people get a
little crazy by calling this
the hijack, but I
tend to not do that,
and then as we
eliminate people, we
get rid of the least
interesting positions
to only keep the
ones with real names.
So the reason that I'm
telling you this now
is we're going to be
going through hands
where I talk about
players by their position.
The individual person
doesn't matter,
but it's much to
understand what's
going on when I refer to them
as a cut off, or the button,
or whatever.
But in general,
the later position
is better because you
get more information.
You get to see people
acting before you.
And as a result, the
money flows, in general,
to the late positions.
The hand that you're
the button, you're
going to make the
most amount of money,
and you can see that
in poker tracker.
And if you're losing
money on the button,
you should seriously
reevaluate how
you're playing that,
because that's when you
make the most amount of money.
Big blinds are an
interesting situation
because they get to see
the flop for a discount,
because they're compelled
to pay some sort of bet.
So you might think the
blinds are in a good position
because they get a free
flop, but they're actually
in a terrible position because
when position matters post flop
they are the first to act
in every single situation.
So even though you
might think that you're
getting a discount for
being in the blinds,
you're getting a
discount and entry
into a hand where you're
almost certainly going
to be at a major
informational disadvantage.
However, interestingly,
in short stack situations,
early position is
actually better
because you have the
opportunity to go
all in before the
other person does,
and you maintain the equity from
aggression, the fold equity,
which we'll talk about later.
It's sort of like a
game of chicken where--
so chicken is a game where
two people drive at each other
until one person turns, where
it's like the an infinitely bad
return if they both don't turn,
and then one wins if one turns
and one doesn't.
So the proper
strategy in chicken
is to throw your steering
wheel out the window
so the other person
knows he only
has one option if he doesn't
want an infinitely big loss.
So with position, it works
very similar to that,
where if you're in a tournament
where neither person wants
to see a showdown,
neither person wants
to deal with a coin flip
for their tournament life,
if you're in early position,
you have the opportunity
to be the aggressor
and go all in.
So you get to discourage
the other person
from entering into it.
So let's move on to
some basic concepts.
So a lot of these things
are based on odds.
So poker is a statistical
game, and we're
going to be talking about
applications of math to poker.
So why does drawing matter?
So drawing means you're
trying to make a hand.
More cards that will
come out will give you
a really good hand, whereas
you don't necessarily
have a good hand right now.
In a really common
situation, there's
one guy that has an
OK hand, and there's
one guy that has nothing
but the potential
to have a really good hand.
Most of the decision
points come down
to whether the guy with
nothing has equity,
has an interest in
making his real hand.
So really common
examples of these
are one person has
a pair or two pair,
and one guy has a
straight or a flush draw.
If we're talking pre-flop,
someone has a pocket pair,
and someone else has
literally anything else,
and they're trying to make
anything more than whatever
that guy's pairs is.
So what the drawer
has to to-- the guy
without a real hand-- is
to decide whether the bet
he is facing or whatever
has to pay to see more cards
to find out if he makes
his hand is worth the cost,
is worth what the
aggressor is making him pay
to see that additional card.
And the person who has a
hand already wants to make it
so that the drawer cannot see
his card for a positive equity.
He wants to bet so much that
a call is bad, because that's
where his equity comes from.
So he can either bet enough so
that he folds-- the other guy
folds-- or bet enough that he'll
call and make a huge mistake.
Both are equally good.
Actually the second
is probably better.
AUDIENCE: You're
saying [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: So I'm saying
a drawer is someone
who has a flush draw
or a straight draw,
or basically has no
real hand at showdown,
but has a reasonable chance
of, as more cards come out,
making a monster hand, like
making a hand which will almost
certainly win that showdown.
OK, so let's go
through a scenario.
OK, so this seems
pretty straightforward.
There's some sort
of bet pre-flop.
I called, and it was heads up.
It came with four to a flush,
four hearts, and this guy bet
into me.
And the question
is, what do we do?
That's a big question.
And I'm going to be
using this format a lot
because it's easier
to-- at least for me,
it's easier to see, and then
hopefully it's something
you guys will pick up on.
I'm only going to include
relevant information,
and the cases are
going to be written
this format where we have
the relevant stacks up here.
Here are the blinds.
This means that small blind
is $20, big blind is $40,
and there's a $10 ante.
This is a pot before
anyone does anything.
This is a pot as of a flop.
These are my cards.
The hero is whoever
we care about.
The villain is the other guy.
And this just shows the
order of what happens.
So here he raised
to $120 pre-flop.
Three big blinds.
I call.
The flop comes eight of
hearts, three of hearts,
something that doesn't matter.
He bets $370, all in.
So my decision is,
what can I do here?
And this is a really
common scenario.
And what we can do
is develop the tools
that we need to make
this-- to figure out
what we want to do here.
And rather than
should we call, we
can come up with a much
more resilient answer.
What's the biggest
bet that we can call?
And we're going to
end up with a solution
set of this, of this area here.
That's what we
want to figure out.
But first we need
to develop something
called expected value.
So expected value is the same
in poker as it is in math.
It's just a probability
weighted average
of all possible results.
So it's win percentage
times win amount minus
lose percentage
times lose amount.
So in our scenario, we're going
to add some variables into it.
We're facing about
into a pot of 380.
Our EV is going to
be whatever chance
we have to win times a pot of
380 plus whatever the be is,
x, minus our lose percentage,
which is 1 minus win percentage
times that same variable x.
And our threshold for
call is when EV equals 0.
So pot odds is generally
what we call the relationship
between the size of
the bet you're facing
and the pot that you would
win if you call that bet
and then win the hand.
So this is going
to be the equation.
So it's plus EV.
It's positive expectation if
the chance you have of winning
is greater than the call amount
divided by the size of the pot
after the call.
So say that we're
seeing a bet of $100.
We were seeing a bet a little
bit bigger than that, but just
for example purposes,
we'll use $100.
So your pot odds
would be $100 divided
by $580, where $580 is
whatever was in the pot
before plus his
bet plus your call.
You'll win $580 if
you win this hand.
So your call is
contributing 17% of the pot.
And just so you
guys know, people
use pot odds in a different way.
They talk about 1 to 4 and
use a different notation
for referring to your
chance of winning.
I always thought this
was very intuitive,
so that's what I'm going
to be teaching you guys.
It's a percentage of the
pot that you can contribute.
So if your win percentage
is more than 17%,
this is a plus EV call,
and this should be fairly
easy to wrap your head around.
And your win percentage
can just be calculated
based on what cards will
make you win divided by what
cards are left in the deck.
And those are called outs.
Cards that result in a win for
you based on your best estimate
are called an out.
So when you're going for a
flush-- so there are 13 hearts.
You already know
about four of them.
They're either in your
hand or on the board.
There are nine
hearts left that you
could hit to make your
flush and presumably win.
So your win percentage--
this is calculating it out
exactly-- is just 1 minus your
chance of hitting the flush
on either one of those cards.
So it's 40 out of
49 times 39 out
of 48, which is
about equal to 34%.
So since this 34%, our chance
of winning, is more than 17%,
the proportion of a call
that we're contributing,
this makes it a good call.
And the fact that this is
really big compared to this
makes it a really good call.
So this is how I think of it
in terms of visualizing it.
So this whole pie
is the $580 pot
that it would be if you called.
This chunk is your 34% pot odds.
Now, this chunk can be
comprised of the size
of the bet you're
calling and your expected
value from calling.
So here, the size of the chunk
is $197, which was 34% of $580.
We can contribute
up to that amount.
If we get to
contribute less of it,
that means that any
additional chunk is EV.
We are making $97
for making this call.
Similarly, if we make
a call that's too big,
we end up with a negative
chunk of that pie.
So I'm teaching you a
quick rule for calculating
your chance of winning any
hand, and the quick rule
I'm going to use
is by Phil Gordon.
So let's talk about Phil Gordon.
So Phil Gordon got-- he
seems like an OK guy.
He got fourth place
in the main event.
He won a World Poker tour.
He won two British
championships.
He's the head referee
of the World Series
of rock, paper, scissors.
These guys get into
really interesting things
when they're not playing
poker, and he's the author Phil
Gordon's Little Green Book.
So Phil Gordon invented
this thing which
caught on called Gordon's
rule of two and four,
which basically just
says each of your outs
is worth 2% for
each additional card
you get to see for
that side of the bet.
And it should be fairly
obvious where 2% comes from.
It's just 1 divided
by 50, and it's
a rough estimate of what each
out is worth over 49, or 48,
or however many cards are left.
If you get to see both the
turn and the river, you use 4%,
and that's the whole role.
I'm sure someone
figured it out before,
but he was nice enough
to coin it and write
in his book, which is why
I'm giving him credit for it.
So some examples of these
are if you have a low pair
and you're trying to
get three of a kind
by the turn or the
river, you have two outs.
And if you're
trying to figure out
your chance of making that
three of a kind on the turn,
you do two outs times 2% for a
total of 4% to make your hand.
Simple enough.
Other common examples
are flush draw,
which should be nine outs
to give you odds of 9
divided by 47, or about 18%.
An inside straight
draw is four outs
to give you odds 4
out of 47, or 8%.
And you can see this is
the exact calculation,
but it's really very close
to just multiplying by 2.
So back to pot odds.
Your break even is when EV is 0.
That's a common theme that
we're going to be talking about.
So the bet is x
into a pot of $380.
Your chance of hitting the
flush is 9 times 4%, or 36%-ish.
we're assuming that we
get to see both cards.
Why do I think we're going
to get to see both cards?
Because he's all in, and
he can't bet anymore.
So win percentage is 36%.
Our exact win rate
is 34%, showing
that this is pretty close.
We didn't actually need
to do any heavy math
to get a good ballpark number.
So the question here is,
we're facing a bet of $370.
The pot before we
face that bet is $380.
And the question
is, should we call?
Because you're not going--
you can solve the threshold
conceptually just to
get a resilient solution
set, especially when
you're doing things
before or after the
fact, but in real time,
we're going to want a rule
for how to figure this out.
So let's talk through
this one, and then we'll
go through the solution
on the next side.
So we have to figure out
whether to call this.
So what are we drawing to?
So we're drawing to a flush.
So how many cards will
result in a flush here?
Nine, right.
So there are nine remaining
hearts in the deck,
and then we get to
see one or two cards.
AUDIENCE: Two cards.
PROFESSOR: Yep, I agree.
So we get to see two
cards because he's all in.
So our chance of winning is
4% times 9, so 9%, 18%, 36%.
So we can call up to 36%.
We can contribute up to
36% of the final pot.
So we would contribute $370 into
the final pot of 2 times this
plus 1 times this.
And just offhand,
you can calculate--
you can figure out
that's around 1/3,
because the pot is about
equal to the size of his bet.
So we're contributing a
little bit less than 33%,
so we know that this is
going to be a good call.
And that's how you would
do this in real time.
You'd say you're 36% to win.
You're contributing 33% of the
pot, so you decide to call.
And that's how you would
make this decision.
So let's do a couple
more examples.
These are all
different situations
where this type of
thing might come up.
So here's a situation where
we have asymmetrical stacks,
although the blinds
are the same.
So we have six,
seven of diamonds.
I'm using the four color deck
just to make it easier to see.
Something happens pre-flop
that doesn't really matter.
On the flop, there'
$320 in the pot.
He bets $150.
So what we do here?
So what are we drawing to?
We're drawing to a straight.
So how many outs do we have?
How many cards will
hit that straight?
AUDIENCE: Eight.
PROFESSOR: Eight, yeah.
So we got four nines
and then four fours--
will make us hit that straight.
So eight outs total.
So what's our chance of
winning this hand based
on what we're calling here?
AUDIENCE: 32%.
PROFESSOR: Yeah, 8%, 16%, 32%.
Yep, I agree with that.
So based on that,
what do we have
to contribute to
stay in this hand?
What percentage
of the future pot?
AUDIENCE: Less than 1/3.
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
something less than 1/3,
because if he get exactly
$320, that would be 1/3.
So we know this is
way less than 1/3,
and since we're 32% to
win, this is probably
going to be a good call.
So going through the
questions-- so we
have an open ended
straight draw, meaning we
have eight outs because
two different cards
would result in the straight.
Our outs are any
nine and any four.
We have a 33% chance
of hitting it,
and what's the correct play?
Call, because $150 out of $620,
where $620 is the pot plus $300
is 24%.
OK, so that wasn't bad.
So those are two common draws.
One was a flush draw, and
one was a straight draw.
So let's go to something
a little bit different.
So we have five
five on the button.
He raises into us.
I call, and the flop comes
three clubs, five, ace, six.
He bets $200.
OK, cool.
So this is a situation
which I'm sure a lot of you
may have run into recently.
So what hand are
we drawing to here?
Why do we think we're behind
if we have three fives here?
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]
two of clubs [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Yeah, he might
have a flush, certainly
to the point where I'm not super
comfortable with the set here
knowing that it's reasonably
likely for someone
to have a flush here, or even
if he doesn't have a flush
and we bet, he's only
going to call us really
if he has a flush
or a better hand.
So he has a flush--
what are we drawing to?
What beats a flush here?
AUDIENCE: Full house.
PROFESSOR: Full house, good.
What else?
AUDIENCE: Four fives.
PROFESSOR: Yep, four of a kind.
OK, so what are our outs here?
AUDIENCE: Seven.
PROFESSOR: Yep, I agree.
Seven outs.
What are they?
[INTERPOSING VOICES]
Yep.
So three aces, three
sixes, one five.
So we have seven outs total.
So what's our
chance of hitting--
do we count one
or two cards here?
AUDIENCE: One.
PROFESSOR: One.
Why?
Because he has a
lot of chips behind,
and there's no way, if he's
betting this on the flop,
he's giving us a free
card on the turn,
unless for some reason he
thinks we have a flash,
but we certainly
can't count on that.
OK, so what did we say?
Seven outs.
So we use 2% for the
next card, or 14%.
So we can call up to
14% of the future part.
The future pot is going
to be $2100, $2300,
so we can call 14% of that.
So what's a good
estimate of that?
It's going to be more than
my 280 because 14% of $2000
is $280, right?
So he's betting
materially less than that.
He's way under betting
whatever he has here.
If he has a flush,
he's not protecting it.
If he doesn't have a
flush, he's losing.
So this is a very common example
of a villain not protecting
his hand.
This is a situation where I
see a lot of newer players
screw up.
They're betting so little--
they're betting little
because they don't want
the other guy to fold,
but they're actually
losing value
because the other guy folding
here would be preferable.
They should bet enough that
he either folds or he makes
a wrong decision if he calls.
So we're drawing to full
house or four of a kind, which
you guys got right.
Our outs are three aces,
three sixes, and one five
for seven cards total.
Our chance of hitting the draw
is 14%, so the correct play is?
AUDIENCE: Call.
PROFESSOR: Yep, the
correct play is call,
because he's only asking us for
to contribute 9% of that pot.
Since we're 14% to win,
the chunk in that pie
is bigger than the 9% chunk
that we have to contribute,
and the result is this $122
free that he's giving us.
OK, so I think this
is my last example.
This one should be a
little bit more fun.
So this is it.
So why is this a draw
that we're looking at?
We're the first one to act.
Why does this matter?
Can anyone tell
what's going on here?
AUDIENCE: Big blind [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
so the villain here
is all in blind with that $200,
because that's the big blind.
So by calling here or by doing
anything, he is going all in.
So really it's like
he acted before us,
and now we're deciding
whether we want to act.
So what are we drawing to here?
What are we facing?
What does he have
in terms of a range?
AUDIENCE: Anything.
PROFESSOR: Any two cards.
And then so what
are we drawing to?
In general, we're drawing
to basically anything.
We're hoping that we win
some amount of the time,
and what percentage
do we have to win?
First let's start with
what's a reasonable estimate
for the amount we could win,
the percentage of the time?
So what are some hand versus
hand percentages that you know?
So what's aces versus anything?
AUDIENCE: 80%.
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
it's like 80% or 85%.
And then if he doesn't have a
pocket pair higher than both
of our cards, you're generally--
even if you're dominated,
you're like 70/30,
and then the majority
of random versus
random is between 60/40
in either direction.
So say that-- what
percentage of the time
do we have to win here for
this to be a good call?
So what's the size of the
bet that we're facing here
if we're the small blind?
$100, right?
So we're contributing
$100 here to win
a pot of $400, which is
going to be on big blind
from each of us.
So if we're more than 25% to win
here, this is a plus EV call.
And I see a lot of people
screw this up for some reason,
but you're virtually
always ahead of 25% here.
So what we're drawing
to here is anything,
and our chance of
hitting the draw
is we're actually about
40% versus his range.
And even the worst heads up
hand versus any two cards
is 32%, so we're really
calling blind there.
We are always
ahead of his range.
So the correct play is
certainly going to need a call,
and the EV is like $60.
So if we fold this, it's
worth about $60 chips.
So let's talk about
implied out odds.
So the solution to an
implied odds question
is the number of
chips that we have
to win after hitting our draw.
So I'm using that specific
language because for pot odds
the solution is whether
or not you can call,
or what's the maximum
bet you can call.
For implied odds,
it's different.
It's the number of chips
you have to win later
to make the call good.
It's the amount of
basically dead money
you need to add to the
pot after the fact.
So the way that we do that is
we take a look at our percentage
chance of winning--
say it's 20%--
and then we figure out what
size would the pot have to be
to make the bet we are currently
facing be 20% of that pot.
So here's an example, and
we're using easier numbers
here because we're
dividing by percentages.
So say we have a flush
draw and we're 18% to hit.
If the pot is $300 and we
have a bet of $180 into us,
our call is going to
be 27% of the pot.
So if we had a 27% chance of
winning that would be a break
even call, but we don't.
We have an 19%
chance of winning.
So by pot odds, it
says don't call.
But to figure out
what the amount is
that we want the
pot to be, we just
divide that $180 by
the 18% of our odds
to get this $1000 number.
So if the part were $1000,
we could make that call.
So the solution
here is this $340
difference, which
is the actual part
after we call-- the difference
between that and the pot
that we need to make
this call neutral.
That's where this
$340 comes from.
And it has to be in dead money.
It has to be money
that's added to the pot
after we already hit our flush.
So to visualize-- so we
need that bet of $180
from the example I just
gave to be 18% of the pot.
That's what makes it a good bet.
As of the time that
we make the decision,
our bet here represents
27% of that pot.
However, if we can
increase a pot by $340,
that bet would be
18% of that new pot.
So that gives us the right
implied odds to make this call.
And what we need to figure
out is whether this $340
number is realistic-- the
difference between this $1000
and that $660.
So are we following that?
Is that making it
easier to understand
what we're trying to figure out
when we're doing implied odds
question?
AUDIENCE: Yes.
PROFESSOR: OK, cool.
So I think I have two or
three examples here just
to walk through that idea.
So here's a hand.
So here's a decision
we're facing,
and we need to figure out
whether this is a good call.
So we have plenty
of chips behind.
We all started with
$1000, and then we're
probably not winning this hand
because we have middle pair.
So we're drawing to two
pair or three of a kind.
Our outs are these, which
are five outs total,
which gives us a chance of
hitting our draw of what?
So do we get to see
one or two cards?
AUDIENCE: One.
PROFESSOR: Right.
We get to see one card,
because presumably he's
going to bet again.
So we multiply by 2% to get a
10% chance of hitting the draw,
and then let's go back to this.
So what does the pot
have to be to make
this bet 10% of the future pot?
AUDIENCE: $1000.
AUDIENCE: $900.
PROFESSOR: Well, it
needs to be $1000,
because we're contributing
$100 of some pot
that we have 10% equity in.
So it needs to be
$1000, which means
how much additional money do we
need to add after we call that?
So after this call it's
going to be $100, $475, $575,
because we're calling $100, so
that's going to be in the pot,
too.
And then it's the delta
between that and $1000
that we care about.
So it's going to be
$1000 minus $575.
We need to draw $425
in addition at the end.
So I have a 10%
chance of hitting.
Our odds are 16%, meaning
we can't call it there.
However, if we can pull
out that $100 bet divided
by the 10% odds that we
need, it creates $1000 pot
with the difference of $575.
So we need $425 more on
that after we hit our draw
to make that a good call,
which in that situation
seems reasonable.
So he got $100
into a pot of $400.
Presumably he'll bet like
$200 or $300 next hand,
and then we can re-pop
him for anything.
Even if it's a min bet,
which he'll presumably
be obligated to call,
especially because this
is a very hidden draw, we'll be
able to make this a good call.
So I think this is reasonably
a good call based on I
think we could get $400,
$500 more at least.
So let's do another
one of these.
So I'm going to make these all
from the same position and all
the pre-flop actions
the same just
to make it simple to
see what's going on.
OK, so here let's go
through the same steps.
So what are we drawing to here?
AUDIENCE: Straight flush.
[INTERPOSING VOICES]
PROFESSOR: Yeah,
so several things.
So we're drawing to a straight.
We're drawing to a flush.
We're drawing to anything else.
[INTERPOSING VOICES]
So, I would agree we're
drawing to a royal flush also.
And I'm going to say the
over pair might not be good.
One pair I wouldn't
consider a great hand,
especially when we're--
what were blinds here?
$50, $100?
So we have an m of like $50?
Something like that.
So I think our m-- our top
pair is not that great here,
but I do think
the flush is good.
Probably like a king
high flush is good,
and then the straight
is good, too.
So how many outs
do we have here?
So how many outs to the flush?
AUDIENCE: Nine.
PROFESSOR: Right, so we have
nine other clubs in the deck.
And then how many
outs to the straight?
AUDIENCE: Eight.
PROFESSOR: Eight, right.
So we have 17 outs, and
then how many are overlaps?
AUDIENCE: Two.
PROFESSOR: Two, right.
So let me make sure
I got that right.
So 9 plus 8.
17 Minus 2.
Yep, 15.
So we have 15 outs here.
And then how many cards
are we going to see?
AUDIENCE: One.
PROFESSOR: We're
going to see one.
I really wouldn't
estimate that we're
going to see two cards, unless
someone is specifically all in.
So use one card here.
So we have 15 outs over
one card, so what's
our percent chance of
winning on that next card?
AUDIENCE: 30%.
PROFESSOR: 30%, good.
So what would the pot
have to be eventually
to make this a good call with
our 30% chance of winning
this hand?
AUDIENCE: $1800?
PROFESSOR: It would
be-- so I think it
would be $600 divided by 30%.
Right?
So what's that?
So $600 divided by 3/10.
No, I think it's going to be
more than that, because we're
going to multiply by 10/3.
So it's going to $6000
divided by 3, or $2000.
Would you agree with that?
So this pot has to
be $2000 by the end.
Now, what's it going to
be when we call here?
AUDIENCE: $1425.
PROFESSOR: Yeah, let's see.
So it's going to be $600--
his $600 plus our $600.
$1200 plus $275.
Yeah, $1475.
So how many additional
dollars do we need in the pot
after hitting one of our draws?
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Good, right.
So I think that's right.
So drawing to straight or flush.
Any ace, any nine,
seven other clubs
that aren't ace or
nine for 15 outs.
We are 30% to hit this.
So right now the pot odds are
40% because he's betting $600--
or we'd be contributing $600
into a total pot of $1475.
We need to win an
additional $525 after it
to make this a good call.
So that's it.
So that's how you
do implied odds.
Just make sure you understand
what the future pot has to be,
and then you can use
your own judgment
for whether that's a
realistic amount to win here.
I think here $500 is
totally reasonable,
because he already bet $600.
Even if a flush comes, he's
probably pretty obligated
to make at least
another a $500 bet
or at least a $500
call if he checks.
So I think that's good.
To make it a little
simpler for you guys,
I made explicit
all of the formulas
that we went over for drawing,
just to help with the case.
So our normal EV formula is
just-- so x is always going
to be what we're solving for.
Our EV is just is the either
benefit or cost of the decision
that we're facing.
It's just going to be the
combination of our win percent
and loss percent and the
win amount and loss amount.
How you determine pot odds
is just a decision rule.
Yes or no-- do you
make this call?
It's just your win percentage
of the hand-- the chance
you hitting your
draw, whether that's
greater than the call amount
divided by the pot plus 2 times
the call amount, because the
bet amount and the call amount
are the same thing.
If it is greater, then
you make the call.
If it's less than, you fold.
Implied odds, which we
just went over-- it's
going to be the
bet amount you're
facing divided by your chance of
winning the hand minus whatever
the pot is going to be
after you make that call.
I think that's it.
So these are all
the formulas you
need to make these decisions.
You can generally remember
them when you're at the table.
I think they're fairly
intuitive, and if not,
they seem fairly
easy to memorize.
Anyway, so let's do a
live example of this.
So this hand happened at
the World Series of Poker
last year when it
was 10 handed, which
means there's it was one hand
before the final table bubble,
where they get to-- how it works
in the World Series is they
play down to nine, and then
they have a break for three
months where they build
up the final table,
and they advertise it,
and they play it live.
So this is a situation that
was very tense for these guys,
and an interesting
had happened which
I think is a great example
of what we're trying to do.
Anyway, so let's watch.
[VIDEO PLAYBACK]
The very first year of
the World Series in 1970.
PROFESSOR: There we go.
No final table.
Champion determined by a
vote of all the players.
Johnny Moss was the winner.
Under the gun, Martin
Jacobson, ace, jack of clubs.
Very accomplished
tournament player.
Four World Series final tables.
Raise. $650,000.
The dealer announces
raise, but I
don't think Martin has the
right denominations out there.
Hold on, hold on, hold on.
Hold the action.
Hold the action.
Just call.
Just a call.
So they're making it
just a call for $300,000.
By the way, that was
World Series dealer
of the year, Andy Tillman.
Frankly, I think the
dealer of the year thing
has gone to his head.
He's dealing with a
lot more attitude now.
One of these players
will join the likes
of John Hewitt, Jordan
Smith, and Don Barton
as main event 10th
place finishers.
Action on to William Tonking.
Jack, nine in the small blind.
He wants to play.
He limps in.
In the big blind, Dan
Sindelar checks his option.
Three for a bargain.
And here is our flop.
7, 8, 10, 2 clubs.
Tonking with a
jack high straight.
He checks it to Sindelar,
middle pair with a gut shot.
And he's reaching for
chips, bets a half million.
Jacobson with flush
and straight draws.
If Jacobson raises under
the gun as he intended to,
Tonking likely
would have folded.
Instead, they're now on a
massive collision course that
could define the November nine.
Jacobson obviously
loves his hand
was straight and flush draws.
Unfortunately, he's
run into Tonking,
who flopped a straight,
but there is a raise
to a $1,750,000.
So the 2% hand bets, and the
second worst hand raises.
Lon, this is a game
I need to be in.
A dream scenario
for the short stack
that still could turn into a
nightmare for William Tonking.
All in.
And Tonking announces all in.
Sindelar folds.
[END PLAYBACK]
PROFESSOR: So let's figure out
what's going through his head
right now.
So here are all our players.
That's our hero with
ace, jack clubs.
It's a little hard to see
when they broadcast it on TV,
but he was under the gun.
He called.
Called around.
He bet.
He raises.
He check raises all
in, and now Jacobson
facing a decision here.
So clearly, what
is he drawing to?
Flush, and then if he hits
that flush is he going to win?
Probably.
And then what else
is he drawing to?
AUDIENCE: Straight.
PROFESSOR: Straight, right.
And then if he hits
that nine, he's
probably going to
win with a straight,
although not all
the time, because he
doesn't have the best straight.
If a nine comes
and then this guy
has queen, king-- or
sorry, jack, queen,
he's going to actually lose.
So the question is,
what does he do here?
This is what it looks like.
So our hero here raises $1750.
He re-raises $4525 more
to being all in for $6275.
So he's drawn to a flush
and possibly a straight.
So how many outs do we have?
So you can count partial outs.
You can say I'm going to win
half the time if I get this,
just to be conservative.
So you can say all
these clubs are
good because you have
the best possible flush,
and maybe this
nine will work, so
let's count it as half
a card, half an out.
We'll win half the
time if we do that.
So we have 10 and 1/2 outs.
So our chance of hitting the
draw-- how many cards do we
get to see?
AUDIENCE: Why 10 and
1/2? [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Because you can
just say, if we hit this nine,
we're going win half the time.
We're probably going
to win more than that,
but it's a situation where
if he has a jack we split,
and if he has jack
queen, we lose.
So I'm not really comfortable
calling those complete outs,
and in the end, you can see
it doesn't really matter.
But the more
conservative move is just
saying half the time
we'll win with those,
and with these nine outs we're
going to win all the time.
You can just count
them as half outs,
or you can count them as 2/3
outs, or something like that.
Anyway, so we get to see both
cards because he's all in.
You have a question?
AUDIENCE: This would
actually be a [INAUDIBLE]
this will always--
when it's half
[INAUDIBLE] that the
other person has a jack.
So under that
condition, [INAUDIBLE]
under all other conditions
of this [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: No.
We lose if he has jack, queen.
AUDIENCE: Right.
If he has a jack-- he
can have a jack, queen.
That's fine, but
if he has a jack,
then it's the 1/2, but
if he does not have
a jack, then any nine wins.
PROFESSOR: Yeah, that's right.
This is a conservative play.
AUDIENCE: This is
a really-- this
is the worst case scenario.
PROFESSOR: Yeah, I would agree.
If this says call, then
we're definitely calling.
It's a real pain to have
aggressive estimates,
and then it says
call, and you need
to wonder [? why their ?]
estimates are wrong.
So this gives us a
more clear example.
Anyway, so the correct play
is going to be to call here.
It's a little bit
difficult to see,
but we're going
to say that what's
in the pot are all
the bets that happened
before he was re-raised.
So that's the original
part of $1400,
that one guy that bet $500 for
some reason, and then this,
which would be our all in
call, which was the $6275 2,
because he bet that,
and we called that.
This was a small blind.
I don't know if you saw.
The small blind here
just called $500
and then folded when
he bet into him,
so that's dead money in the pot.
So the total amount
is $14,450, and we're
facing a bet of $4525, so 31%
of the pot we're contributing.
We're 42% to hit our
draws, meaning that this
is a pretty clear call.
And when we do the EV, even
with this conservative estimate,
it says we're making
about $1.5 million chips
for making this call.
So this should be pretty easy.
Let's see what happens, and
let's see if this works.
[VIDEO PLAYBACK]
Boo.
[END PLAYBACK]
PROFESSOR: Anyway, OK.
So he won that.
The guy, Jacobson,
I'm pretty sure
ended up winning the
World Series that year.
OK, so we have a
bunch of be carefuls.
Do not draw to a hand
that may not actually
win when you hit it,
which means if you're
drawing to a flush
that's not even that good
and maybe dominated
by another flush,
you probably shouldn't count
all those as full outs,
or the lower end of a straight
is really, really bad.
It's really common for
people to draw to that
and then just go
broke, because they
think they made their
hand, but as it turns out,
they made the second best hand.
In addition, don't draw
out to a worse made hand
than is already possible.
So people refer to
something called
a paired board, which means
two cards on the board
have the same number.
That means that four of a kind
or full house are possible.
So if you're drawn to a straight
or a flush, you might not even.
You might be-- drawing
dead, is what it's called.
You like you might be
0% to win that hand,
so be careful on drawing
on a paired board.
In addition, do not assume
you get to see both cards.
It's really common for
players to think that,
OK, there are two cards left.
He doesn't seem too aggressive.
I'll probably get to see
both cards for cheap,
and then find out that
their assumptions when
calling the flop ended up being
really bad and costing them EV.
So very rarely does
someone check the turn.
Unless the turn is
really scary, like you
hit your draw obviously,
or it looks like you did,
no one is was going to
give you that for free.
Another thing to
be careful about
is don't overestimate
how easy it
is to extract additional chips.
It's really, really obvious
when someone hits a flush draw,
because there aren't that
many reasons people are going
to call a bet on the flop
when there are two clubs on it
and then bet when another
club hits on the turn.
Flushes are really
obvious and everyone
is keeping an eye on that.
Straights are less
obvious because a lot
of different boards can have
a straight on it so they can't
really just assume
that you're going
to have a straight if there are
any like four cards that are
near each other by the turn.
And sets, like when
you have a pocket pair
and you hit a third of
that pair on the turn,
are basically invisible.
There's no way they
can put you on that.
So your implied odds
for sets are huge,
whereas your implied
odds on flush draws
are very, very small.
In addition, on the other
end, if you have a made hand,
don't bet so little to give them
the odds to reach their draw.
Basically, most of
your flop and turn bets
should be like 2/3
of the pot just
to punish them if they
want to chase their draw.
OK, so that's it
for implied odds.
So let's move on to fold equity.
So here's an example.
So where you guys following
what was going on in that hand?
Basically, I had position
pre-flop to make this call.
Then on the flop I had an
open ended straight draw.
He be small enough
that I should call.
Same thing on the turn.
I think he checked behind me
on the turn, and the river
he checks.
Why?
Why is he checking
the river here?
So he's checking
because he's worried.
He knows I'm drawing to
something because I flat
called, and look.
I could've been
drawing to a flush,
and he thinks I just hit it.
So this is a perfect
bluffing opportunity,
because we are basically
representing a flush.
So the question is,
how often does this
have to work to be a good
bet versus just checking
behind and losing nothing?
With bluffing, if
it's a bad bet,
we're just going to lose
money most of the time.
So we have to figure out,
what proportion of the time
does this have to win
to make it worth it?
And that's what we're going
to be looking at here.
The concept that will give us
the value of making this bet
is called fold equity.
So fold equity is
the value that you're
getting in a hand
from the likelihood
that the other player
is going to fold.
So with regard to
fold equity, I'm
saying your showdown value,
which is this acronym here,
is 0.
You can't win at showdown,
which is our situation there.
If he calls us, we
definitely, definitely lost.
So the formula for
this is-- at least
the EV formula is just-- so it's
a derivation of the normal EV
formula that we always see.
It's just the pot times your
chance of winning-- i.e.
his fold percentage--
minus the chance of losing.
And you lose that
bet if you lose,
but your risking the
bet to win the pot.
If we have the chance
to win after he calls,
we can add another
variable where
just, instead of us just losing
this bet for the amount he
calls of the time,
when he calls,
we're going to get some
amount of EV, which is still
presumably going to
be negative, but it's
going to be a less negative
than just losing the entire bet.
So that's the basic formula
for semi-bluffing here.
Some I'm defining
bluffing is a bet
where it has
positive expectation
because the fold
equity is more than 0.
Just this term,
just the proportion
of the pot that you
expect to win from him
folding is greater than
the weighted chance
of you losing that bet.
That's just going to be called
a bluff, an outright bluff.
And I differentiate
that from semi-bluffing,
where this is actually
negative, where
if you have a 0%
chance of winning,
it's actually a bad bet,
because he calls you more
times than makes that valuable.
But a semi-bluff
actually becomes
positive expectation because of
your showdown win percentage.
Your showdown win percentage is
sufficiently high to offset it,
and this is where
the value comes from,
because you have the
opportunity to steal pots,
but you also the opportunity
redraw to a winning hand.
And that's why in tournaments
this becomes something
that you're going to be doing
very often, because you're not
going to always have made
hands, but you're always
going to have something that
could become a made hand,
and that becomes good enough.
So how often does this have
to work to be profitable?
So I'm just going to
give you a formula here.
So we're betting $150
into a pot of $350 where
we have no chance of
winning if he calls.
Our EV, which is just
taking it from that formula,
is $350 times the chance we
fold minus $150, our bet,
times the chance he calls.
So we can solve
this for EV equals 0
and then solve for fold
to get this formula.
We get $150 divided by
the pot plus our bet.
So this is our bet,
because the idea
is that we are putting $150
into that pot for a chance
of winning that whole pot back.
He won't add that $150
to the pot if we win it,
so that's the idea there.
So it's our bet
divided by the pot
after we bet to give us our
neutral EV fold percentage.
So that's the chance
of him folding
that makes this a good bet.
So I think this is pretty cool.
You can use this to
determine what's a good bluff
and what's a bad
bluff by just saying,
is he going to call this
more than 1/3 of the time?
And just the EV
calculation, looking
at using this formula to prove
that we reach a neutral EV
is just 30% times this $350,
the pot minus 70%, him calling,
times our bet.
That equals 0.
And that's our quick-- I like
plugging this back into the EV
formula just to make
sure we messed around
with the variables properly.
So are we OK with this so far?
Because we're going to move on
to something a little bit more
complicated.
In this one, be bet
$75 like he did before,
but we are raising $150.
Why?
Why are we raising $150 here
rather than just calling?
Yeah, because we have an
open ended straight draw,
where even if he calls,
we still could win,
and that fundamentally
changes what we
need to make this profitable.
So here, our chance
of winning is 16%.
8 times 2.
We get to see just the river.
So it's $150 into a pot of $350
where our win percent is 16%.
This is still our chance of
taking now the pot uncontested,
and then the 1 minus f percent,
the chance that he calls,
is multiplied by our
marginal EV, this 16% times
winning the pot.
$500 is $150 $350--
$150 our bet,
$350, the pot--
minus $150, our bet.
I guess a $150 here
would be his bet,
but still we have a chance
to $500 or lose $150.
One of the reasons fold
equity is really hard
to teach is because there's
no real intuitive way
to memorize this formula.
So what I did here is I
just solved for EV equals
0 for our fold percentage.
So we could solve this--
I just plugged this
into Wolfram Alpha, and I
got the neutral fold percent
is just 12%, compared
to here we need
to win this bluff
30% of the time,
and here we need to
win 12% of the time.
That shows the value
of the semi-bluff here.
So to check with EV, you
win $350 12% of the time,
and 88% of the time you
have to deal with this.
So that shows, at
least intuitively,
what the value is
but let's see if we
can figure out exactly
how important this win
percentage is.
So we're going to have
to use calculus for this.
So when we graph this
formula, we see a clear trend,
and it would be intuitive.
When your showdown win
percentage goes up,
the amount you need
him to fold goes down.
If you win 0% of the time,
he needs to fold a lot,
but then if you win
some amount of the time,
he only needs to fold a
smaller amount of the time.
So that's what this
thing is saying.
And there are a couple
of interesting points
on this graph which
I want to point out.
So what's this point here?
It's our break even fold
percentage for having a 0 EV.
So the idea is, if he
folds, how you read this is,
if we have a 16%
chance of winning
if we're drawing to an open
ended straight for one card,
if he folds more than
12% percent of the time,
if we're in anywhere in
this area, it's positive EV
and for anywhere
down here it's not.
So that's how we're
reading this graph here.
So what about this point here?
It's a complete bluff because
we have 0% chance of winning,
and you recognize this 30%.
It's from all the way back here.
It's when we had a
0% chance of winning.
So that's that point
up there, which I think
is pretty interesting,
but it gets even cooler.
OK so that's what that is.
It's our $150 divided
by $150 plus $350, which
is our formula for determining
what our break even
fold percentage is
for a complete bluff.
That's our 30% here,
but check this out.
So what is this number?
It's our pot odds break even.
It's the size of the
bet that we could
call if he was betting
to make us neutral EV.
That's what this 23% is.
It's our $150 divided by
the pot after our call.
What that means is, if
he folds 0% of the time,
I, similarly, did he
just bet, and then we
have the option to call.
That makes a 0 EV.
So this graph connects all
of those variables for us,
and that lets us derive
something very interesting
with regard to implied odds.
We could just figure out
how implied odds impacts
our fold percentage by
looking at this secant line
and coming up with
a good estimate.
So let me work through
this graph, talk
through what we're
seeing here, because I
think this is really cool.
So to be clear, this blue line
is our neutral fold percentage,
and then this slope
is-- it's the derivative
of how much of a bonus
we get to fold percentage
for every 1% win rate.
So for each additional one
out, each additional 2%,
he needs the fold 3% less
for us to break even there.
That's what this is telling you.
When you have a 10%
chance of winning,
you just reduce
this amount by 15%.
You multiply it by the
one and a half slope.
Although it undershoots
it by a little bit,
it gives you a very,
very close estimate
to using these implied
odds in real time.
And then so I went
ahead and figured out,
OK, so that's for a
specific bet size.
How's it work if we look at
for a much bigger bet or a much
smaller bet?
I found something
really interesting.
When the bet becomes-- when
we go towards infinity,
the partial derivative is 2.
You only get as much of a bonus
as 2 times your win percentage.
So each additional out
gives you like 8% percent
reduced in break even
for fold percentage.
And then when your
bet approaches 0,
you only get a 1% decrease.
So these are our bounds.
For a pot size bet, it's
1.5% percent your bonus,
and regardless,
you know your bonus
is going to be between
1 and 2, at least
in terms of the average
across win percentages.
That's what we discovered here.
And what this is
letting us do is
it's less letting us
create a quick rule that
implements implied odds.
So to go over what
these rules exactly are,
let's back up to
a complete bluff.
So our fold needed
is just the bet
divided by the pot
and the bet combined.
If you want to bet the
exact size of the pot, which
isn't that bad for a bluff, you
only need to win half the time.
And then you can, if you want,
scale linearly down to 0.
You could just say, all
right, if I bet half the pot,
I have to win 25% of the time.
It's a little bit off.
It's like 33% of the time,
but it's not that bad.
So this gives you
a very easy way
to determine when you
should bluff or not,
and obviously there's
a bit of judgment
because you've got to
figure out whether this
is a reasonable number, but
it gives you idea of you
don't need to win that
bluff 80% of the time.
And then when you actually
have a chance to redraw to win,
it becomes even
more interesting.
So in general, when
you have a draw,
your value is higher
because you still
have a chance to win the hand.
And in general, you're going
to see very rarely will people
actually make complete bluffs,
because they would prefer--
the chance of you winning
the hand at the end
materially makes
your value better.
So a simple assumption
is just each 1%
your showdown increases you
decrease your fold percentage
by 1.5%.
And your fold percentage are
going to be much, much smaller.
They're going to be like
15% to 20-ish percent,
somewhere in that range.
So decreasing that
by 5% actually makes
you quite a bit more
likely to win, or at least
have a positive
expectation decision.
And when we talk
about pre-flop, which
is going to be nothing
but figuring out
semi-bluffing
opportunities, we're
going to be heavily
using this type of thing.
So let's do some examples.
OK, so what is going on here?
So just to watch
that again-- so it
looks like the villain
raised something pre-flop.
I had position, so I called.
And then he showed weakness
for three straights in a row,
I don't know what he has,
but it seems to be worth
taking a stab at it.
So then what
proportion of the time
does this step have to work
to make it a good bluff?
So is this going to be
bluff or a semi-bluff?
AUDIENCE: Bluff.
PROFESSOR: Bluff.
Why?
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Yeah, I
barely beat the board.
I think my 10 high plays,
but only very close.
So there's no way he can call
this with the worse hand.
So the question is,
how often does this
have to work to be valuable?
Which is a very common question
you might ask yourself.
So do you remember how
to figure this out?
So the formula is
going to be this.
It's just the bet divided
by the pot plus the bet.
So difference between this
and the pot odds formula
is one bet.
Pot odds formulas is pot
plus two bets, ours and his.
This formula is just
the pot plus our bet
only, because he
never adds his bet in.
So to figure out our
chance of winning here,
let's just go to this one.
We just do what?
We take this side of
our bet and divide it
by this plus this number.
So we add those
together, it's what?
$625.
So we'd just take $250 divided
by $625, which is what?
It's 40%.
So this needs to work 40%
of the time to be valuable.
So it's actually
not as interesting
as I would have guessed.
This needs to work a
pretty big amount of time.
And given that he's
shown so much weakness,
he's probably guessing that
we're probably buffing.
But anyway, if he
calls 25% of the time,
does that make that
a good bet or not?
Yes, because that
means he folds 75%
of the time, which
is more than our 40%.
So that makes that a good bet.
And just to plug into
the EV formula, what
is our value from this bluff
if our estimate is right here
that he calls 25% of the time?
It's $200, so the pot is what?
I think the pot is $400 here.
So that makes sense to
me that 75% of the time
we're going to take down that
pot, so it's worth about $200
to us.
So that's it.
Let's do another example.
OK, so what's going on?
Something happened
on the flop, and then
what are we doing here?
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: Exactly.
So we're betting $450
into a pot of $775.
So the question is,
is this a good bet?
Should we have done this?
And we're going to be
facing these decisions
all throughout the tournament.
So this one is going to be kind
of complicated, but not really.
Let's see what we can
piece together for now.
So what's our chance of
winning this one at showdown?
So we have 16%
chance of winning.
AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].
PROFESSOR: It's hard to--
I prefer not counting--
you can proportion partial
outs to whatever you think
your real chance of winning
if you hit that is-- say,
that's worth 1/3 of an out.
But in terms of being
conservative and making
this simple, we
could just say, let's
say we have to hit
the straight to win,
although you can consider
yourself having a little bit
more equity if
you just say maybe
I'll win if I hit
a 10 or something.
So we're betting for $450
into this pot of $775.
So we know we have a 16%
chance of winning this hand
if we are called.
If we have no percent
chance of winning the hand
if we are called, what
proportion of the time
do we need him to fold
to make this good?
$450 divided by $1225.
That $1225 is going
to be $450 plus $775.
Is that right?
What was the bet?
Yeah, $450 plus $775 $1225.
I think this is-- $11-- $1225.
I think that's right.
$1225?
OK, so we have a 37% chance
of-- that's our break
even if we have no
chance of winning,
but then we get a bonus for
the 16% chance of us winning,
and then a general estimate
is going to be 1.5 times,
because we're making
approximately a pot size bet.
We're making it a
little bit smaller
so maybe this is over
doing it by a little bit,
but this is at least
giving us an OK estimate.
This might be a little low.
It might be like 18%, but
we can't differentiate
between a margin that small.
So the 60% chance is related
to our chance of winning.
We get a bonus that's
proportional to that.
I'm saying 1.5, which seem
to be about in the ballpark,
to give me 13% chance break
even for that fold rate.
So even if he calls 80% of the
time, it makes it a good bet,
and 80% is a huge
amount considering--
I don't remember the situation.
He could potentially
have nothing here.
He definitely showed
some sort of weakness,
so it's totally reasonable that
he won't call more than 80%
of the time there.
So we calculate our equity just
based on the formula earlier,
which is our chance of taking
the pot down uncontested, 20%.
And then our 80% chance
of winning 60% of the time
and losing 84% of
the time, where
we're winning the pot plus his
bet, and we're losing our bet.
OK, so let's jump to
another live example.
[VIDEO PLAYBACK]
Junior world champion
bowling and horseshoes
for [INAUDIBLE],
Foosball, and maybe poker.
Sorry, what's your name?
Mark.
[INAUDIBLE]
Mark already plays this
final table [INAUDIBLE].
I've heard-- sorry.
I have no idea.
Listen, Billy is a world
champion in another sport.
PROFESSOR: That guy
is pretty cool, too.
What sport?
[INAUDIBLE] Foosball.
Yeah?
Yeah.
Well, that's pretty
awesome, as well, huh?
Yeah, that is awesome.
PROFESSOR: This is considered
very high quality banter
by poker standards.
[INAUDIBLE]
Secret is out.
Absolutely.
Jacobson, pocket sevens.
$650.
Confirming with [INAUDIBLE].
Yeah, that's $650,
and that's a raise.
Politano, 10 trey
suited. [INAUDIBLE]
to Pappas now with ace, queen.
I wonder if there are
different surfaces of Foosball,
like the French
open of Foosball,
the Wimbledon of Foosball.
And is there an ace,
queen in foosball?
Yeah, right.
PROFESSOR: The wort joke ever.
Several brands of
championship tables.
Billy's a tornado
guy, by the way.
Tornado.
Billy, with ace, queen re-raised
to $1 million $425,000.
The main event is a
grind, but Billy Pappas
says he doesn't get
tired here because he's
used to Foosball tournaments,
which are 14 hours a day
on your feet for several days.
[? And ?] [INAUDIBLE] folds.
The ace of hearts is exposed.
Back to Jacobson.
Jacobson trying to
become the first Swede
to make the main event
final tables since Chris
Bjorin in 1997.
Bjorin tied for sixth all time
in the World Series caches.
Bjorin and Jacobson
both born in Sweden.
Both moved to London.
Jacobson made the call.
We're heads up.
King, jack, trey.
Jacobson ahead so in the sevens.
Pappas picks up a Broadway draw.
Jacobson checks.
[END PLAYBACK]
PROFESSOR: So Let's
take a look at what
actually happened before
we got to where we paused.
So this guy's in position.
He's in the cut off position.
Jacobson raises.
He re-pops with ace,
queen in position.
Newhouse throws out an
ace for some reason.
So Jacobson checks,
and then he's
going to make the standard bet.
So the question is,
is this a good bet?
And then something we
can definitely figure out
is what percentage
of the time does
this have to be a fold
to make this a good bet.
If showdown win
percentage is 0, it's
going to be $1800 divided by the
pot plus $1800, his bet-- 33%.
But if he actually has
a chance of winning--
he has an inside straight draw.
He has a 10, and then he has
the best possible straight.
He gets up 8% of the time,
reducing his break even fold
percentage by approximately 8%.
So it's 8 times 1.5, 12.
So this minus 12 is at 21%.
And then this is
solving it out exactly.
I gave them half
outs for an ace.
Maybe ace wins 1/2 the time.
It turns out that 21%
is basically dead on.
So let's see what happened.
[VIDEO PLAYBACK]
King, jack, trey.
Jacobson ahead so
with the sevens.
Pappas picks up a Broadway draw.
Jacobson checks.
Of course Bruno Politano trying
to become the first Brazilian
to make main event final table.
[INAUDIBLE]
What happened to the Canadians?
Our record ten
[INAUDIBLE] since 2013.
Non grata Canadian.
I think they got too cocky.
And now Pappas comes out
with a draw for $1.8.
Pappas was rather aggressive
earlier in the main event,
again showing his
aggressive side right now.
Martin folds.
Pappas will drag the pot.
Now he's sits just
shy of $20 million.
A world champ in
two different games?
It just could very well be.
Billy Pappas makes good
use of that scary boarded
take down the pot.
[END PLAYBACK]
PROFESSOR: OK, so that's
a very common type of bet,
which we'll talk about later.
That's called a
continuation bet.
So he showed
aggression pre-flop.
It's checked him on the flop.
It's almost always going
to be the right move
to bet again on the flop,
because you're already
indicating that you
have a good hand,
and then two face cards show up.
It's reasonably
likely that you're
going to have at
least top pair there,
so it's uncommon
for the other guy
to try to push up against
you since presumably you
have at least a pair of kings
or jacks most of the time.
Let's do some be careful abouts.
This is a lot of stuff
I notice from the more
recent tournaments.
So don't bet too
little on a bluff.
That makes it very
obvious, and then
it's usually pretty
clear-- if you
bet 1/3 of the pot, which is
something that's generally not
common for normal
players, it kind of
screams that you're not
too attached to the hand.
And a 2/3 of the
pot bet only really
needs to win a small percentage
of time to be profitable.
I get the no one likes
to lose money on a bluff,
but 1/3 bet works much less
of the time than a 2/3,
and you actually get much
less value out of it.
So bet enough.
Bet like you had a normal hand.
Bet enough that, if someone
is drawing to something,
they don't have the
odds to make that call.
Alternatively, don't bet
too much on the bluff,
and I'm making pretty
wide ranges here so
don't think that I'm
contradicting myself here.
One of the biggest tells for a
bluff is someone betting more
than the pot, just because
it means they didn't actually
think through the
numbers, and they're just
like I want to bet a lot so
that makes the other guy fold.
But in general, don't bet
too much, and by too much
I mean more than the pot.
And in addition, if
you're short stacked,
don't bluff an amount
that, if he raised,
you'd have to call anyway.
In which case, you should
just bet all in there.
So don't be afraid of
getting caught bluffing.
So this is a reason
people don't bluff live.
It's because they're afraid
of showing down nothing.
Don't worry about that.
One of the best indications
to me of someone
being a good player is they'll
and show down a bad hand
and just be like, yep.
That's how you play poker,
and that'll be the end of it.
So don't worry
about-- what you have
when you bluff is
completely immaterial.
So just having a losing
hand that's really bad
is no different than having
a marginal losing hand.
So don't be afraid of being
bluffing, especially live.
People get embarrassed when
they get caught bluffing.
Don't worry about it.
So semi-bluffing
is great compared
to bluffing because you have
a chance of winning the hand,
but if you're in position,
sometimes it's better
just to take a free card.
If he shows weakness
and checks into you
when you have an open ended
straight drawn, in some cases
it's just going to be right to
check and get your free card.
You have to compare
your EV of checking
to your EV of bluffing.
And don't bluff calling
stations because a lot
of your value from these guys
will come from value betting.
The only way you'll
possibly lose to them
is if you try to bluff them.
You might be in
a situation where
you're ready to run
over calling stations,
but you don't have good
cards and bluffing is not
the way to go.
So don't do that.
Let's wrap it up there.
Thanks everyone.
[APPLAUSE]
