David Pakman: Denis Campbell is with me, he
is Editor in Chief of "UK Progressive" Magazine,
and he has a new article out, "Prediction:
Obama and Dems Will Win Handily in 2012".
You actually go into detail, Denis, of why
you see a path to possibly 400, possibly even
500 electoral votes for Barack Obama, which
to many people would sound very unlikely.
So make the case, I'm very interested to hear
how you'll outline this.
Denis Campbell: Well, we're not smoking anything
funny over on this side of the pond.
You know, we're safely tucked away outside
of both the Washington and New York beltway
and conventional wisdom, and I have to tell
you that my track record four years ago was
I predicted 375 electoral votes, and I was
only messed up by Missouri, which Obama failed
to carry, President Obama failed to carry
by 2900 votes, so I came very, very close.
Basically, what I do is I sit and I take a
look at the races that were decided by 5%
or less in 2008, and I'm able to rather successfully
filter out a lot of the extraneous noise that
you hear over there between the various political
parties.
Right now, you've got the sound and fury of
the tax cuts and will we do the payroll tax,
will we do everything else; we're able to
pretty much stay out of most of that and just
sort of look at the raw, hard numbers which
came in in 2008.
And the simple fact of the matter is is that
Missouri was lost by 2900 votes, you have
Claire McCaskill running there for reelection,
so there's a very good chance that she could
come in very, very strongly and bring with
him.
And let's not underestimate the power of the
bad behavior we've seen of late of the GOP.
They seem intent upon snatching defeat from
the jaws of victory.
By every measure, they should have an outstanding
year, but they keep shooting themselves in
the foot, or perhaps even higher, with every
step they take.
David: OK, so let's just go step by step here.
Campbell: Sure.
David: So Missouri would be... essentially
would be 10 more votes for Obama, 10 less
for the Republicans, so that gets us to 375.
You're putting in possibly Montana, and of
course, they have a Democratic governor, I
think Brian Schweitzer is his name, that would
be a swing of six, then we're talking 378,
but it's still a long way to the 500 specifically,
and even to 425.
Campbell: Well, I've actually...
I've actually looked at those that were won
by 5% and those that were won by 10% over
the... over the last year, that were considered
competitive in terms of races.
And if you look at some of the internal dynamics
and some of the demographics that are going
on in the states right now, you have a very
large, very angry Hispanic voting population
that is only growing.
And if you look along the southern tier of
states that have traditionally gone Republican,
but for example, New Mexico went Democratic
in 2008, I think Arizona is poised to be switching
over to the Democratic side this year, despite
the crazy of their legislature, or actually
because of the crazy of their legislature
and Governor Jan Brewer, and the fact...
David: Yeah, I mean, people are angry with
Jan Brewer, we're doing on today's show this
Joe Arpaio story, the guy's completely out
of control.
Campbell: Exactly.
David: Whether that's enough to change Arizona
to go to Obama we'll see, but no, you're certainly
right that I think it's in play, there's no
question.
Campbell: Absolutely.
And don't underestimate the power of Georgia.
Georgia has a very large black population,
has a very metropolitan population around
the city of Atlanta, and they've enacted a
very harsh anti-immigration law which will
affect Hispanics, which will affect people
of all outside persuasions, and you're going
to find yourself looking at that very much
in play, I think, this year, even though it's
been solidly red.
It has gone Democratic in past presidential
elections.
And my one wild card is Texas, and most people
look at me and laugh when I say Texas.
David: Yeah, I'm laughing too.
I don't see it.
Campbell: [Laughs] Well, again, do not underestimate
the level of discomfort with favorite son
Rick Perry, do not underestimate the growth
of the Hispanic population between 2008 and
where we are today, do not underestimate the
fact that most of the companies that are out
there doing these tracking polls do not include
those who have not as yet voted.
So look at all the people that have turned
18 to 21, which is what I did when I looked
at the '08, which was one of the things that
I factored into my decisions when I was predicting
how he would do with young people, President
Obama, and look at where we are today.
You have a huge percentage of the young Hispanic
population that have turned 18 over the course
of the last three years that are very dissatisfied
with the very vitriolic rhetoric that comes
out of the GOP that is very anti-immigration,
very anti-Dream Act.
I think there's a very good chance that that
state could be put into play.
And whether it's enough to actually tip it,
I don't know, but I think...
David: Well, yeah, I mean, it's one of those
things where percentage-wise, it's not out
of control, but it's a high-population state,
so you still need a lot of people to swing.
I'm fascinated, though, by...
Campbell: You've got Austin.
You've got Austin, and you've got San Antonio,
which traditionally are very big Democratic
bastions in that state.
You know, yes, when you get up into Dallas
and Houston and oil country, it's blood red,
but I'm beginning to sense, you know, from
some of the informal sampling that I've been
doing over the years looking and talking to
people that those... that state could indeed
be in play.
But you've got all of the people that are
conducting these polls, they have a bias that
runs either Democratic or Republican, left
or right, and the methodology of a lot of
these polls is not particularly good.
Even Nate Silver in this one is throwing up
his hands and going, I have no idea how this
one is going to come out, because there are
so many wild cards this time.
David: Well, you know, I'm actually interested
in exploring the effect on elections of the
increasing Hispanic population as a percentage
of the country, but we just, I know we're
not going to get to the other stuff I want
to get to, so we'll save that for a different
day.
Campbell: OK, no problem.
David: One thing I do want to get to, though,
is we're not really taking into consideration
the possibility that Barack Obama could lose
some of the states he won in 2008, because
his approval rating quite frankly is not...
it is ticking up, but it's not great right
now.
You're not really... in your analysis, I don't
see you really considering that possibility.
Campbell: I am considering it in Iowa and
Indiana.
I think those are two states where they have
long been bastions of red and he was very
lucky to get those in the past.
I don't think Virginia's going to be in play.
I think Virginia will stay blue.
I think North Carolina will stay blue.
And I also think South Carolina, which came
very close, and again, we're talking, again,
a very unpopular Republican governor in Nikki
Haley, who could by the time we get around
to elections be under indictment.
There's a lot of things still to come down
the pike in terms of steps that I'm sure the
administration is likely to take.
When you look at things such as banking, you're
going to see, I think, the heads of some of
the major banks fall under indictment very
conveniently during some of these early primary
state races, and I think you're going to see
the rhetoric heat up.
You're going to see Sheriff Joe Arpaio under
indictment.
You're going to see a lot of movement, yes,
you can say it's politically-based, but it
will be timed very specifically to coincide
with all the events that are happening in
the U.S. with the election.
David: And then last question, and we are
short on time, so just a quick snippet: why
do you think Gingrich will give so much more
push to Obama?
Because in your theory, the Gingrich candidacy
is the one that could open up to 500 electoral
votes for Obama.
Campbell: Well, you know, I'm going to borrow
the quotation from a friend of mine here,
we were on a BBC shoot together and we were
talking just after the midterm elections about
the Tea Party, and he looked at me, and he
said, "They're a bunch of right-wing nutters."
And when we look at the history of Newt Gingrich
and the trail of carnage that he has left,
the fact that nobody in the GOP establishment
likes him, that would be the ultimate godsend
for them.
And let's not underestimate the power of the
Occupy movement.
I think you're going to see them become very,
very strong as a result of the campaigns that
are coming up in the spring.
David: All right, Denis Campbell, Editor in
Chief of "UK Progressive" Magazine, great
to talk to you, and we'll have you back again
soon.
Campbell: Thank you, David, enjoyed it.
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