>> John Harris: HELLO AND
WELCOME TO PRAIRIE PULSE.
COMING UP LATER ON PRAIRIE PULSE, WE'LL
TAKE A TOUR OF MINNESOTA'S BEAUTIFUL ITASCA
STATE PARK, BUT FIRST JOINING
US TO TALK ABOUT THE ELECTION
SEASON, LOCALLY, REGIONALLY AND
NATIONALLY, IS DR. NICHOLAS
BAUROTH, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR
AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY.
>> HELLO.
>> John Harris: THANKS
FOR JOINING US TODAY.
FIRST OFF DR. BAUROTH, TELL FOLKS A BIT ABOUT YOURSELF,
YOUR BACKGROUND, WHERE YOU'RE FROM ORIGINALLY.
>> I HAVE BEEN IN
NDSU SINCE 2005.
>> John Harris: WHAT GOT YOU
INTERESTED IN POLITICAL SCIENCE?
>> OH, MY GOODNESS, I TELL
MY STUDENTS ALL ABOUT IT.
I WORKED AT A SMALL NEIGHBORHOOD NEWSPAPER
IN SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, BACK IN THE EARLY
'90s AND I COVERED A WHOLE
BUNCH OF CITY COUNCIL MEETINGS
AND I STARTED TO SEE WHAT EFFECT
IT DID HAD ON MY NEIGHBORHOOD IN
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE AND
DECIDED TO GO WITH IT.
THAT'S THE GENESIS OF IT.
I TELL MY STUDENTS A WHOLE LOT
MORE BUT LEVI
LEIPHEIMER IT FOR NOW.
>> John Harris: CERTAINLY AN
INTERESTING ELECTION SEASON.
WE CAN TALK ABOUT AT IN
NORTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA
AND NATIONALLY.
WHAT ARE SOME THINGS YOU ARE
NOTICING SO FAR IN TERMS OF WHAT
THE ELECTORATE IS LOOKING FOR
OR IS THINKING OUT THERE?
>> IN TERMS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, IT'S
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD IN MINNESOTA AND
NORTH DAKOTA, I THINK WHAT'S
MAKING NORTH DAKOTA THE CENTER
OF THE UNIVERSE WILL BE
THE SENATORIAL ELECTION.
BY THE HEITKAMP-BERG FIGHT COULD
LEAD TO THE CONTROL OF THE U.S..
SENATE AND THAT HAS
HUGE IMPLICATIONS.
>> John Harris: ARE THINGS AS
POLARIZING OUT THERE BETWEEN THE
TWO PARTIES AS THEY SEEM TO BE?
>> CERTAINLY THE RHETORIC IS
VERY POLARIZING.
THERE IS A LOT OF
BACK AND FORTH.
THIS ELECTION SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSLATED
OVER TO THE POPULATION AS WELL.
IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS WHEN YOU
HAD INCUMBENTS RUNNING FOR
OFFICE AGAIN, YOU WOULD HAVE A
MAJORITY O SUPPORTING THE
CANDIDATE, BUT 10 OR 20% WOULD
SAY, I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THIS
GUY, I'LL GO WITH SOMEONE ELSE.
RIGHT NOW, YOU HAVE POLLING AT 80% OF
DEMOCRATS ARE FOR OBAMA, NO MATTER WHAT.
80% OF REPUBLICANS ARE FOR
MITT ROMNEY, NO MATTER WHAT.
SO IT'S NOT JUST A POLARIZATION AMONG THE
PUNDITS AND POLITICIANS, PEOPLE ARE REALLY
FEELING IT AND THAT'S A BIG
CHANGE FROM 20 YEARS AGO.
>> John Harris: INDEPENDENT VOTERS, YOU
HAVE THE TWO PARTIES, WHAT ABOUT THE
INDEPENDENT VOTERS, SOME REFER
TO THEM AS WISHY-WASHY OR
MALLEABLE, CAN THEY DECIDE ELECTIONS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN IT'S THIS CLOSE?
>> THE THING ABOUT INDEPENDENT
VOTERS, IF YOU'RE INTO POLITICAL
SCIENCE OR POLITICS, INDEPENDENT
VOTERS ARE GIVEN A LOT MORE
CREDIBILITY THAN
PERHAPS THEY DESERVE.
A ROA LOT OF PEOPLE THEY SAY'RET
DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN, BUT IF
YOU LOOK AT THEIR VOTING
BEHAVIOR, WHO THEY PREFER, MOST
INDEPENDENTS WILL SAY I'M NOT
A DEMOCRAT BUT I VOTE FOR
DEMOCRATS ALMOST ALWAYS, OR I'M NOT A REPUBLICAN
BUT I VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS MOST OF THE TIME.
SO YOU HAVE THIS BIG CHUNK OF THE
POPULATION WHO SAY THEY'RE I
WANT BUT YOU CAN TELL QUICKLY THEY LEAN
HEAVILY FOR ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER.
SO A TRUE INDEPENDENT IS TRUE
PEOPLE WHO SAY I DON'T KNOW, I
PICK BASED ON MY OWN CRITERIA
AND I'M NOT SURE AS WHICH ONE
I'M SHOEING, THAT CAN BE AS
LOW AS 10% IN AN ELECTION.
SO IN SOME WAYS, INDEPENDENT
VOTERS GET A LOT OF ATTENTION
BUT THE TRUE INDEPENDENTS ARE A
RARE BREED, WE'VE FOUND, SO FAR.
>> John Harris: LET'S TURN TO THE
SENATE RACE IN NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH HEITKAMP AND BERG, OF COURSE, GETTING A
LOT OF NATIONAL ATTENTION AS YOU MENTIONED.
WHAT ARE THE DYNAMICS OF THE
RACE AND I GUESS POLLING RIGHT
NOW SHOWS IT'S RIGHT PRETTY TIG.
>> YEAH, POLLING IS
UNUSUAL IN NORTH DAKOTA.
WE GET A FEW GOOD POLLS
BUT NOT TOO MANY.
WE'VE GOTTEN A COUPLE MORE THAN USUAL
BECAUSE IT'S SEEN AS A PIVOTAL RACE.
DEMOCRATS IN SOME WAYS HAVE LOCKED INTO
THE RACE, IT'S A REPUBLICAN STATE, UNTHE
REPUBLICAN DELEGATION TILL
RECENTLY WAS ALL DEMOCRATS.
IF YOU WERE AN OUTSIDER, YOU WOULD SAY
CLEARLY THIS IS THE REPUBLICANS TO LOSE.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE HEIDI
HEITKAMP, WHO IS ONE OF THE FEW
DEMOCRATS STILL IN POLITICS WHO
HAVE WON A STATEWIDE ELECTION
AND SHE HAS NAME RECOGNITION,
A WELL-KNOWN FIGURE.
BERG IS WELL-KNOWN, TOO.
AND IN ONE STATE-WIDE ELECTION,
HE'S NOT THE INCUMBENT.
HE'S IN AN OPEN SEAT.
HE'S ONLY SERVED ONE TERM IN THE
HOUSE, SO HE HASN'T ESTABLISHED HIMSELF AS
NORTH DAKOTA'S PERSON IN WASHINGTON, D.C. YET.
SO WHAT SHOULD BE A BOIL-OUT FOR
THE REPUBLICANS HAS BEEN QUITE
TIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
TIGHT IF THE FEW POLLS WE HAVE
ARE RELIABLE, UNTIL
WE HAVE THE DEBATES.
SO, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, THE
DEMOCRATS HAVE LUCKED OUT.
IF IT WASN'T HEIDI HEITKAMP,
IT'S HARD TO SEE THIS ELECTION
AS BEING ANYWHERE NEAR AS CLOSE.
>> John Harris: OF COURSE, NOT
TOO MANY YEARS AGO, NORTH DAKOTA
HAD THREE DEMOCRATS IN WASHINGTON SERVING AND,
OF COURSE, NOW, IT COULD FLIP-FLOP. >> YEAH.
I MEAN, THIS USED TO BE -- WELL,
IT'S ALWAYS BEEN A PRETTY
REPUBLICAN, PRETTY CONSERVATIVE
STATE, BUT ALSO A STATE THAT,
UNTIL THIS LAST DECADE, WAS MORE
THAN WILLING TO HAVE STATEWIDE
OFFICERS WHO WERE DEMOCRAT, SO
THAT, FOR WHATEVER REASON, HAS
FADED AWAY, WHICH MEANS THE
DEMOCRAT'S BENCH FOR FEDERAL
OFFICE HAS GOTTEN QUITE SMALL.
BUT IT EJUST SORT OF HAS GONE TO THE REPUBLICAN
WAY IN THIS STATE, PRESIDENTIAL AND OTHERWISE.
>> LET'S GO TO THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES BETWEEN CRAMER
AND GULLESON. CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT THAT RACE?
>> THERE IS EVEN LESS POLLING
DATA THAN THE HIGH
CAMP-BERG RACE.
WHAT THERE IS SEEMS TO INDICATE
CRAMER HAS THE UPPER HAND BUT
THERE IS A LOT OF UNDECIDED PEOPLE, THAT
CRAMER IS NOT A KNOWN QUALITY FOR EVERYONE.
GULLESON IS EVEN LESS SO.
SHE'S NOT SOMEBODY UNTIL THE
LAST YEAR OR TWO THAT PEOPLE
HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY
FAMILIAR WITH.
THAT BEING STAYED, SHE'S DONE
PRETTY WELL IN TERMS OF RAISING
MONEY FOR HER OWN CAMPAIGN.
IF YOU LOOK AT HOW MUCH EACH HAVE
RAISED, IT'S BEEN FAIRLY EQUAL.
SO GULLESON HAS A SHOT.
IF I WAS A BETTING MAN, I
WOULD SAY I WOULD THINK THE
REPUBLICANS WOULD WIN ACROSS
THE BOARD HERE, BUT IT'S OPEN.
IT'S STILL A LEAN RATHER THAN A
SHORT THING FOR THE REPUBLICANS.
AGAIN, AS WE GET CLOSER TO
ELECTION DAY AND THERE IS MORE
FLURRY OF CAMPAIGN ADS, DEBATES
AND PEOPLE FOCUS ON THE
ELECTION, THE DYNAMIC MAY CHANGE
POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE FOR GULLESON.
SO FAR, CONSIDERING SHE HASN'T
WON STATEWIDE OFFICE, SHE SEEMS
TO BE DOING QUITE WELL.
>> John Harris: AND THEN
GOVERNOR, LET'S TURN TO THAT
ONE, NORTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR
WITH DALRYMPLE AND TAYLOR.
CAN YOU -- WHAT ARE
YOU SEEING THERE?
>> I WELL, THIS IS GOING TO BE A RACE THAT
LOOKS PRETTY DIFFICULT FOR TAYLOR TO WIN.
THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH POLLING,
ONE OR TWO POLLS, AND THEY SHOW
DALRYMPLE IS WAY AHEAD.
DALRYMPLE IS THE INCUMBENT, PRETTY WELL-KNOWN
TO MOST PEOPLE, I SHOULD EXPECT, WHILE
TAYLOR IS NOT.
AND THE MONEY DOESN'T SEEM TO
BE THERE FOR TAYLOR AS WELL.
SO WE HAVE THE DEBATES, THERE IS
STILL STUFF TO HAPPEN, BUT HE'S
GOT A LONG WAY TO MAKE UP JUST IN
GETTING THE NAME RECOGNITION OUT THERE.
THEN, YOU KNOW, THE ECONOMY IN
NORTH DAKOTA IS DOING QUITE
WELL, AND IT'S -- SUBSEQUENTLY, THERE PROBABLY
WON'T BE A STRONG INCUMBENT BACKLASH.
SO IF YOU'RE AN INCUMBENT
RUNNING IN A GOOD ECONOMY, HAVE
MORE MONEY AND NAME REC NATION,
THAT'S A WINNING COMBINATION,
VERY DIFFICULT TO BEAT.
>> John Harris: HOW DOES THE
OIL INDUSTRY IN NORTH DAKOTA
FIGURE IN, IFT AT ALL, IN THE ELECTIONS
AND THEIR POSSIBLE OUTCOMES?
>> WELL, IN A COUPLE OF WAYS.
THE ECONOMY IS BOOMING AND EVERYBODY KNOWS
IT'S BOOMING AND THIS HAS HAPPENED UNDER
REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION,
WHETHER BECAUSE OF THEM OR NOT,
YOU COULD HAVE THAT DEBATE, BUT THEY ARE
DEFINITELY ASSOCIATING THEMSELVES WITH IT.
SO THAT IN AND OF ITSELF MAKES OUT A
BETTER PLAYING GROUND FOR THE REPUBLICANS.
ALSO, THERE IS MORE MONEY SLOSHING THROUGH
THE POLITICAL SYSTEM THAN BEFORE.
YOU WILL HAVE COMPANIES THAT
WANT TO SORT OF GET THEIR NAME
OUT THERE, GET FRIENDLY
WITH POLITICIANS.
SO THAT'S GOING TO BE
IMPORTANT AS WELL.
AND CERTAIN THINGS THAT MIGHT
NOT HAVE ONCE BEEN CONSIDERED A
BIG ISSUE BECOME MORE IMPORTANT
COMING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE DEBATE ABOUT THE KEYSTONE
PIPELINE IS SOMETHING THAT'S HAD
NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, PRESIDENT
OBAMA HAD TO RESPOND TO IT.
HEIDI HEITKAMP HAD TO SAY I'M IN FAVOR
OF THIS PIPELINE, I WANT MORE OF IT.
IF YOU'RE A CANDIDATE, DEMOCRAT
OR REPUBLICAN, WHO WANTS TO WIN
STATEWIDE OFFICE, YOU'RE GOING
TO HAVE TO SAY HOW MUCH YOU LOVE
THE OIL INDUSTRY AND WANT TO
PROMOTE IT, AND THE IDEA YOU
SHOULD REGULATE OR SLOW IT DOWN,
WHICH MAY BE GOOD POLICY, IS NOT
GOING TO WASH VERY WELL
WITH THE VOTERS, I EXPECT.
SO IT'S NOT A
DOMINATING FEATURE.
IT WAS STILL RELATIVELY NEW TO
THE POLITICAL SCENE BUT YOU CAN
ALREADY SEE AN EFFECT.
IF THE OIL PRODUCTION CONTINUES
FOR ANOTHER DECADE OR TWO, AS
THEY SAY, I SHOULD EXPECT THAT IT'S INFLUENCE
SHOULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN BEFORE.
>> OKAY.
>> John Harris: THE MINNESOTA
RACE BETWEEN
KLOBUCHAR AND BILLS.
>> KLOBUCHAR HASN'T
HAD STANDINGS.
SHE IS THE INCUMBENT.
SHE HAS THE NAME RECOGNITION,
HER OPPONENT DOESN'T.
IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SEE
THIS AS COMPETITIVE LET ALONE
ANOTHER REPUBLICAN WINNING.
SHE'S SET UP FOR ANOTHER TERM.
>> John Harris: WHEN YOU TALK
ABOUT CONGRESS, WELL, CONGRESS
CONTINUES TO HAVE AN
ABYSMAL APPROVAL RATING.
TWO YEARS AGO, THE TEA PARTY
SORT OF VAULTED REPUBLICANS BACK
INTO CONTROL OF THE HOUSE, BUT
THAT MIGHT BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME.
I GUESS YOU CAN QUESTION THAT.
SO WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON HOW
THINGS MIGHT SHAKE OUT IN THE HOUSE?
>> IT'S KIND OF INTERESTING
BECAUSE AFTER THE ELECTION 2010
AND THE TEA PARTY HAVING SUCH
A STRONG INFLUENCE, A LOT OF
PEOPLE WOULD SAY, WELL, YOU
KNOW, THERE WILL BE FALLBACK, A
BACKLASH, SO TO SPEAK, AND THE
DEMOCRATS SHOULD COME
ON STRONG IN 2012.
ALTHOUGH THAT'S STILL POSSIBLE,
IT'S UNLIKELY THAT THE DEMOCRATS
WILL GET ANYWHERE NEAR CLOSE
TO TAKING OVER THE HOUSE.
IT'S STILL POSSIBLE THEY
COULD TAKE ONE OR TWO SEATS.
WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO.
IT WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINING
THE STATUS QUO MORE OR LESS.
THERE WILL BE SOME FACES
ADDED AND SUBTRACTED.
RON PAUL IS GOING TO BE
GONE, HE'S RETIRING.
BUT I DON'T SEE A RADICAL CHANGE.
THE ECONOMY IS BAD.
WE JUST HAD A SWING ELECTION IN
2010, AND I DON'T THINK THAT THE
VOTERS SEE A REASON
TO SWITCH OVER.
THAT BEING SAID, ALSO, 2010 WAS
A REDISTRICTING YEAR, AND A
NUMBER OF STATES HAD,
UNEXPECTEDLY, REPUBLICAN
GOVERNORS, REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATURES AND
YOU HAD THE REDISTRICTING EFFORTS SO IT
TENDS TO PROTECT THE INCUMBENT,
SO IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT, THAT'S
ANOTHER WAY TO SWIM AGAIN.
EVEN THE BARACK OBAMA DOES VERY
WELL AND THE ELECTION DOESN'T
OUT AS CLOSE AS WE EXPECT.
IT'S HARD TO SEE DEMOCRATS COMING ANYWHERE NEAR
TO A TAKEOVER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
>> John Harris: WHAT ABOUT
ON THE SENATE SIDE?
OF COURSE, THE DEMOCRATS
HAVE SLIDE CONTROL THERE.
HOW DO YOU SEE THAT PLAYING
OUT IN THIS ELECTION YEAR?
>> THAT WILL BE A LOT MORE
CUTTING EDGE AND SUSPENSEFUL
BECAUSE THE DEMOCRAT THE DEMOCRL
IS ONLY BY A FEW SEATS.
THERE IS MORE DEMOCRAT SENATORS
UP FOR ELECTION THAN REPUBLICANS
SO THERE IS NOR CHANCE TO LOSE AND MORE
VULNERABLE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS.
SO IT'S GOING TO BE A REAL
SQUEAKER OF A TIME, I THINK, FOR
ONE PARTY OVER THE OTHER
TO WIN THIS DOMINATION.
WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IS
WHETHER ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER
GETS 50 VOTES IN THE SENATE.
THAT WOULD BE SORT
OF SEEN AS CONTROL.
50 VOTES AND THE REPUBLICANS OR
ROMNEY WINS, HIS VICE PRESIDENT
NOMINEE WOULD BE CASTING THE
VOTES, VICE VERSA
FOR THE AS MANY AS.
SO WE'RE SEEING 50/50, 51/49,
SO IT COULD GO EITHER WAY.
AGAIN, SEEMS AS IF THE ADVANTAGE IS MORE ON
THE REPUBLICANS THAN WITH THE DEMOCRATS.
UP UNTIL RECENTLY, THE SMART
MONEY WAS ON THE REPUBLICANS
TAKING CONTROL BARELY, MORE OR LESS, YOU
KNOW, IF EVERYTHING GOES THEIR WAY.
BUT THE EVENTS IN MISSOURI
WHERE YOU HAD THE REPUBLICAN
CHALLENGER SAY HIS STATEMENTS
ABOUT ABORTION SORT OF
RESHUFFLED THE DECK AND IT COULD
BE AN EVEN SPLIT, IT COULD BE
EVEN WITH THE DEMOCRATS GETTING
CONTROL OR MAINTAINING CONTROL
AND THAT'S WHY THE RACE IN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN BEFORE.
IT'S CONSIDERED IMPORTANT, BUT
IT COULD MAKE OR BREAK THE
CONTROL OF ONE PARTY OR
THE OTHER OF THE SENATE.
SO NORTH DAKOTA IS THE CENTER
OF THE UNIVERSE AGAIN.
>> John Harris: COULD BE.
ALL RIGHT.
WE'LL SWITCH TO THE
PRESIDENCY, I GUESS.
POLLS SHOWING A TIGHT RACE,
I GUESS, FOR RIGHT NOW.
>> YES.
>> John Harris: AND WITH OBAMA
AND ROMNEY, WHERE DO YOU THINK
IT'S AT AND WHAT ARE
THE KEY STATES?
WHERE'S THE PLAYOUT?
>> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S BEEN SORT
OF A NAIL-BITER BECAUSE YOU
HAVEN'T HAD ANY RADICAL
SWINGS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
ONCE ROMNEY GOT THE NOMINATION,
IT'S BEEN PRETTY MUCH EACH
CANDIDATE HAS BEEN WITHIN TWO OR THREE
PERCENTAGE POINTS IN THE NATIONAL POLLS.
YOU LOOK AT ONE ONE DAY, ONE
PERSON IS UP THE OTHER DAY.
THE OTHER PERSON SEEMS UP.
OBAMA SEEMS TO HAVE THE EDGE
LONG-TERM, BUT WE'RE TALKING 1%
OR 2%, AND IF YOU START TALKING
ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY'RE
REGISTERED, LIKELY VOTERS AND
SUCH, WELL, ROMNEY MIGHT
HAVE THE UPPER HAND.
SO IT'S A TIGHT RACE NATIONALLY.
THAT BEING SAID, WE DON'T
HAVE NATIONAL ELECTIONS WITH
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, IT'S
BY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
SO YOU COULD HAVE A TIGHT
ELECTION IN TERMS OF POPULAR
VOTE BUT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
COULD LEAN FOR ONE CANDIDATE
OVER THE OTHER AND RIGHT NOW IT HAS
BEEN LEANING TOWARDS PRESIDENT OBAMA.
HE SEEMS TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND
IN TERMS OF STATES THAT SEEM TO
BE HIS, LEANING HIS WAY, VERSUS
THOSE GOING WITH ROMNEY.
SO IN THAT SENSE, IT SEEMS IT'S
LEANING OBAMA'S WAY, BUT HE HAS
TO STILL WIN SWING STATES IF HE WANTS
TO GET TO THE MAGIC NUMBER, 270.
IN SOME SWING STATES, HE SEEMS
TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND, BUT IT
COULD GO THE OTHER WAY.
OHIO AND FLORIDA SEEM TO BE LEANING
TOWARD OBAMA MORE, VIRGINIA AS WELL.
IF YOU'RE MITT ROMNEY, THAT'S
NOT THE NEWS YOU WANT TO HEAR.
YOU'RE STILL WELL POSITIONED TO
WIN IN THE END, YOU HAVE THE
DEBATES AND A WHOLE
SERIES OF ADS.
AND STATES THAT SEEMED TO BE
RELATIVELY SAFELY OBAMA ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO BEING TOSS-UP
STATES LIKE MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.
IF YOU'RE ROMNEY AND WINS THOSE
STATES, IT DOESN'T GUARANTEE
YOUR VICTORY BUT IT
MAKES IT EASIER.
IN TERMS OF THE POPULAR VOTE OR
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, I WOULD
SAY OBAMA VAS THE ADVANTAGE BUT IT'S
SO TENUOUS IT COULD SWING EITHER WAY.
IT WILL PROBABLY COME
DOWN TO THOSE DEBATES.
A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY
MADE THEIR DECISIONS AND, YOU
KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S
IRRITATING ABOUT THE SUMMER
COVERAGE OF THE ELECTIONS IS YOU
HAVE COVERAGE OF GAFF AFTER GAFF.
SOMEBODY SAYS SOMETHING SILLY,
SOMEBODY ELSE SAYS SOMETHING
SILLY, AND PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSED
TO GET OUTRAGED ABOUT IT, AND
THOSE DON'T SEEM TO
HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
IN OTHER ELECTIONS, GAFFS DO.
BUT MOST OF THE ELECTORATE SEEM
TO BE LINING UP FOR THEIR PARTY
REFERENCE AND DON'T SEEM TO
BE SWINGING VERY EASILY.
NOW, YOU KNOW, THE NO NOMINATIOF
RYAN TO BE THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE, THAT SEEMS TO HAVE
THROWN SOME STATES INTO PLAY,
BUT, AGAIN, WE'RE NOT
SEEING RADICAL SWINGS.
WE'RE SEEING ONE OR TWO PERCENTAGES
MOVING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
>> THE ELECTORAL MAP IS FASCINATING, ALMOST
LIKE A SCOREBOARD AT A SCHOOL EVENT.
>> I KNOW PEOPLE WHO AREN'T
POLITICAL SCIENTISTS OR PUNDITS,
THEY LOOK AT THAT SORT OF
COVERAGE AND DRIVES THEM CRAZY.
BUT SEEING WHICH STATES ARE GOING
TO BE RED AND BLUE AND THE
DYNAMICS ARE FASCINATING.
>> John Harris: SOMEBODY SAID IF THERE
ARE TWO GOOD JOB REPORTS, THEN OBAMA IS
REELECTED.
>> WELL, I MEAN, YOU CERTAINLY
WANT GOOD JOB REPORTS AND, YOU
KNOW, IF THE BOTTOM SUDDENLY
DROPS OUT AND WE'RE GOING UP A
COUPLE OF PERCENTAGE POINTS WITH
THE UNEMPLOYMENT, THAT CERTAINLY
WOULD BE OBAMA'S STEP, NOW.
BUT WHEN YOU HAVE SHIFTS IN THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MOST OF THE
POLLS AND THE STUDIES THAT HAVE
BEEN DONE, COMING INTO THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS OF THE ELECTION, PEOPLE
HAVE ALREADY DECIDED WHETHER THE ECONOMY IS
DOING WELL.
THEY DON'T ACCEPT NEW
INFORMATION QUICKLY.
JUST TO SAY, WELL, THE ECONOMY
IS NOT TOO WELL AND UNEMPLOYMENT
HAS BEEN SPUTTERING AT ITS
CURRENT RATE FOR A WHILE AND
SUDDENLY SAY IT'S GONE DOWN BY .1%, IT
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE MAKING DIFFERENCE.
GOOD NEWS IS BETTER FOR OBAMA
AND BAD NEWS WILL HELP ROMNEY
BUT IT'S TOO CLOSE TO TELL.
>> John Harris: YOU MENTIONED
ABOUT PAUL RYAN BEING NAMED
VICE PRESIDENT AND THE
IMPACT HE'S HAD A BIT.
BUT MORE ISSUES ARE CREEPING IN
WITH MEDICARE, AND YOU MENTIONED
MISSOURI ISSUES THAT HAVE BEEN
TALKED ABOUT ON THE ABORTION THING.
SO WHAT ARE THE KEY ISSUES THAT WILL
DECIDE THIS RACE, DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK, BY AND LARGE,
IT'S GOING TO BE ECONOMY.
CERTAINLY DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ABORTION AND
OTHER SOCIAL POLICIES ARE RELEVANT AND WILL
IMPACT PEOPLE.
BUT, BY AND LARGE, WHAT IT WILL
DO IS JUST TAKE AWAY THE PICTURE
FROM THE ECONOMY FOR
A MOMENT OR TWO.
BY AND LARGE, MOST PEOPLE WILL
SAY, WELL, YOU KNOW, SOCIAL
POLICY, MEDICARE POLICY, THAT'S
DIFFICULT TO COMPREHEND, BUT THE
ECONOMY, THEY CAN'T UNDERSTAND
AND THAT'S GOOD OR BAD.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER DO YOU
BLAME ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER,
DOES ONE SIDE OR THE
OTHER HAVE A SOLUTION.
BUT IF IT COMES TO ONE SINGLE
ISSUE, UNEMPLOYMENT, ARE WE
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION,
DID OBAMA SAVE US FROM A
DEPRESSION, THOSE SORT OF ISSUES
WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR.
STATE AND LOCAL LEVEL, QUESTIONS
OVER ABORTION WILL BE MUCH MORE
RELEVANT BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SEE
WHO THESE CANDIDATES ARE AND IT REMINDS
PEOPLE OF WHETHER OR NOT A
PARTICULAR CANDIDATE IS, WELL,
YOU KNOW, VERY CONSERVATIVE,
EXTREMIST OR HOWEVER YOU WANT TO
CALL IT OR NOT, YOU KNOW.
AND BEYOND THAT, EVEN, PERHAPS
THE ONLY THING THAT Y WILL BE
RELEVANT ABOUT SOCIAL ISSUES
LONG-TERM IS THEY CAN BE A
MOTIVATING FACTOR FOR SOME PEOPLE.
IF YOU ARE SOMEBODY WHO IS, YOU
KNOW, AGAINST ABORTION AND
YOU'RE FEELING WISHY-WASHY ABOUT
MITT ROMNEY, WELL, THE FACT THAT
OBAMA -- OR THAT ROMNEY IS
CLOSER TO YOUR PERSPECTIVE ON
ABORTION THAN ANYTHING ELSE
WILL BE A MOTIVATING FORCE.
IT'S SOMETHING THAT
WILL GET OUT THE VOTE.
THAT MIGHT COME DOWN TO WHAT THE
ELECTION IS ABOUT, NOT SO MUCH
WHO HAS BETTER ADS OR HAS PETTER
PROPOSALS FOR THE ECONOMY OR
PROGRAMS, IT'S WHO CAN GET OUT
THE VOTE, WHO CAN GET THEIR
PEOPLE MOTIVATED
ON ELECTION DAY.
SOME SAY PAUL RYAN, NOMINATING
HIM AS SUCH WASN'T AS OBVIOUS AS
NOMINATING THE SENATOR FROM
FLORIDA, RUBIO, WHO SOME PEOPLE
SAY WOULD HAVE HELPED
SWING FLORIDA HIS WAY.
SOME SAY THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN
MADE A CALCULATION THAT NO ONE
THING WILL SWING THE ELECTION.
BUT GETTING SOMEBODY LIKE RYAN OUT THERE IS GOING TO
BE SOMETHING CONSERVATIVE VOTERS WILL LIKE A LOT.
SO IF YOU CAN PUMP THEM UP AND GET OUT THE
VOTE, THAT CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE.
ONE OF THE THINGS THEY HAVE BEEN
PAYING ATTENTION TO THEY NEVER
USED TO BEFORE IS MOTIVATION OF
VOTERS, ARE YOU ENTHUSED
ABOUT THIS ELECTION OR NOT.
UNTIL RECENTLY, REPUBLICAN
VOTERS SEEM TO BE MORE ENTHUSED.
THAT HAS CHANGED.
IT'S GOTTEN CLOSER IN RECENT
WEEKS, BUT FOR THE LONGEST TIME,
REPUBLICANS SEEMED TO BE MUCH
MORE ENTHUSED ABOUT VOTING,
WHICH SEEMS TO IMPLY THEY'RE
MUCH MORE LIKELY TO VOTE THAN
PERHAPS DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.
>> John Harris: REAL QUICK,
WHAT ARE THE POSITIVES AND THE
NEGATIVES OF OR OBAMA AND ROMNE?
>> OH, MY GOODNESS.
THE NEGATIVE ON OBAMA
IS THE ECONOMY.
WHETHER IT'S HIS FAULT OR NOT,
YOU CAN HAVE THAT DISCUSSION,
BUT HE IS A PRESIDENT DURING A
BAD ECONOMY AND THAT USUALLY IS
A DEATH SENTENCE FOR AN INCUMBENT RUNNING
FOR REELECTION, TO HAVE UNEMPLOYMENT
AS HIGH AS IT IS IS THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS FROM POLLS,
THAT ALTHOUGH HE IS PRESIDENT
AND THE BUCK STOPS HERE, IT'S
NOT NECESSARILY SEEN AS ALL HIS
FAULT, THE ECONOMY AND SUCH, AND
HE'S SEEN, AT LEAST AS THE POLLS
I'VE SEEN, PERHAPS
SEEN AS MORABLE.
HIS LIKABILITY IS UP THERE, MORE
SYMPATHETIC TO THE AVERAGE PERSON.
WHO THAT IS SO IS A WHOLE ANOTHER DISCUSSION,
BUT THE POLLS ARE SEEING THAT IS HIS
STRENGTH OVER MITT ROMNEY.
MITT ROMNEY, THE POLLS ARE
SHOWING HE IS SEEN AS A PERSON
WHO WOULD BE BETTER AT DEALING
WITH A BAD ECONOMY AND MAYBE
BETTER DEALING WITH MEDICARE, SOCIAL
ISSUES AND THE FEDERAL DEFICIT.
BUT IN TERMS OF LIKABILITY, HE'S
SEEN AS LESS RELATABLE, SEEN AS
WEALTHY AND SO FORTH, WHICH IS
PERHAPS WHY WE HEARD SO MUCH
ABOUT BAIN CORPORATION IN THE
EARLY SUMMER, THAT THAT WON'T
HELP HIS LIKABILITY RATINGS.
>> WE'RE OUT OF TIME.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, WHERE
ARE PLACES THEY CAN GO?
>> SOME OF THE PLACES IS VOTESMART.org
WILL GIVE A LOT OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE
CANDIDATES AND WHAT'S GOING ON.
OPENSECRETS.com -- OPENSECRETS.org, I
BELIEVE, IS THE NAME, GIVES INFORMATION
ABOUT MONEY AND THAT WILL GIVE
YOU A LOT OF GOOD INFORMATION
ABOUT WHO'S RAISING
WHAT AND THE SOURCES.
WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT SUPER PACS, BUT --
>> John Harris: THANKS FOR JOINING US.
>> John Harris: A TRIP TO
ITASCA STATE PARK NEAR BEMIDJI,
MINNESOTA IS A DESTINATION
WORTH THE TIME.
THE MAJESTIC PARK IS HOME TO
THE HEAD WATERS TO HAVE THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND VISITORS
ENJOY EXPERIENCES THAT BRING
THEM BACK TIME AND TIME AGAIN.
>> IT'S A GREAT PLACE TO WORK
BUT THE HARDEST PART, EVERYONE,
WHEN THEY'RE HERE,
THEY'RE ON VACATION.
ITASCA STATE PARK IS
MINNESOTA'S OLDEST STATE PARK.
IT BEGAN IN 1891.
IT WAS SET ASIDE BY THE STATE
LEGISLATURE AFTER A BIG PUSH
FROM JACOB BROWER WHO CAME TO
THIS AREA AND FOUND IT WAS A
VERY IMPORTANT SPOT THAT SHOULD BE
PRESERVED FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS.
ONE THING IS THAT THE
PARK IS VERY LARGE.
IT'S OVER 32,000 ACRES.
SO THERE IS DEFINITELY A LOT OF
PLACES TO GET OUT AND EXPLORE.
EVERYTHING OPENS ON MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND AND GOES THROUGH FALL
COLORS WHICH IS TYPICALLY
IS ABOUT MID OCTOBER.
BUT THE PARK IS OPEN YEAR-ROUND, SO PEOPLE
CAN COME TO THE PARK ANYTIME OF THE YEAR.
EACH YEAR WE HAVE AROUND HALF A MILLION
PEOPLE THAT VISIT ITASCA STATE PARK.
WE HAVE VERY GOOD VISITOR NUMBERS THAT COME
FROM THE STATE OF MINNESOTA AS WELL AS
NORTH DAKOTA, CANADA, IOWA,
ILLINOIS, THE SURROUNDING STATES
AS WELL AS FROM ALL OVER THE UNITED STATES
AND COUNTRIES FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.
THEY COME TO THIS AREA FOR
A WIDE VARIETY OF REASONS.
SOME COME JUST TO SEE THE HEAD
WATERS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SOME COME TO BIKE, HIKE.
WE HAVE DEER SEASON.
CROSS COUNTRY SKIING
AND SNOW SHOEING.
WE HAVE YEAR-'ROUND HOUSING IN THE
PARK SO PEOPLE CAN STAY HERE.
ONE OF OUR CAMPGROUNDS IS OPEN
TO PRIMITIVE CAMPING IN THE
WINTERTIME, SO YOU COULD CAMP AND
GET INTO THE WINTER MONTHS AS WELL.
THERE IS PLENTY TO DO WHETHER IN
THE SUMMER, SPRING, FALL, WINTER
AND IT'S A GOOD REPRESENTATION
OF WHAT NORTHERN MINNESOTA USED
TO LOOK LIKE ALL THE WAY ACROSS.
>> John Harris: WELL, THAT'S ALL WE
HAVE ON PRAIRIE PULSE FOR THIS WEEK.
