TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. >> COLONEL, I WANT TO ASK YOU
>> COLONEL, I WANT TO ASK YOU WHAT YOUR THINKING, WHAT YOU’RE
WHAT YOUR THINKING, WHAT YOU’RE EXPECTING HERE.
EXPECTING HERE. YOU HEARD THAT REPORT FROM ALI
YOU HEARD THAT REPORT FROM ALI AROUZI IN TEHRAN, SAYING HIS
AROUZI IN TEHRAN, SAYING HIS EXPECTATION FROM WHAT HE’S
EXPECTATION FROM WHAT HE’S PICKING UP OVER THERE IS NOT
PICKING UP OVER THERE IS NOT JUST A RESPONSE BUT I THINK HE
JUST A RESPONSE BUT I THINK HE SAID A STRONG RESPONSE FROM
SAID A STRONG RESPONSE FROM IRAN.
IRAN. DO YOU THINK THAT THAT IS WHAT’S
DO YOU THINK THAT THAT IS WHAT’S LIKELY TO HAPPEN HERE?
LIKELY TO HAPPEN HERE? WHAT MIGHT A STRONG RESPONSE
WHAT MIGHT A STRONG RESPONSE LOOK LIKE?
LOOK LIKE? AND I THINK THE THIRD PART OF
AND I THINK THE THIRD PART OF THE QUESTION, NOT TO MAKE THIS
THE QUESTION, NOT TO MAKE THIS TOO COMPLICATED, DOES THE DEGREE
TOO COMPLICATED, DOES THE DEGREE OF WHAT THE UNITED STATES JUST
OF WHAT THE UNITED STATES JUST DID, WHICH I THINK SURPRISED
DID, WHICH I THINK SURPRISED EVERYBODY INCLUDING APPARENTLY
EVERYBODY INCLUDING APPARENTLY IRANIANS, DOES THAT RAISE THE
IRANIANS, DOES THAT RAISE THE POSSIBILITY AT ALL THAT IRAN
POSSIBILITY AT ALL THAT IRAN MIGHT THINK TWICE BEFORE
MIGHT THINK TWICE BEFORE LAUNCHING A STRONG RESPONSE?
LAUNCHING A STRONG RESPONSE? >> THE LAST PART IS VERY
>> THE LAST PART IS VERY INTERESTING, BECAUSE THEY’VE
INTERESTING, BECAUSE THEY’VE BEEN PUSHING, IRAN HAS BEEN
BEEN PUSHING, IRAN HAS BEEN PUSHING THE ENVELOPE QUITE
PUSHING THE ENVELOPE QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE TRUMP TOOK
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE TRUMP TOOK OFFICE, ADMITTEDLY AT LEAST
OFFICE, ADMITTEDLY AT LEAST PARTIALLY BECAUSE TRUMP STARTED
PARTIALLY BECAUSE TRUMP STARTED OFF HIS ADMINISTRATION BY
OFF HIS ADMINISTRATION BY TALKING ABOUT HOW WE WERE GOING
TALKING ABOUT HOW WE WERE GOING TO WITHDRAW FROM THE WORLD
TO WITHDRAW FROM THE WORLD STAGE, WE WERE GOING TO BE
STAGE, WE WERE GOING TO BE ISOLATIONISTS, WE HAD NO
ISOLATIONISTS, WE HAD NO BUSINESS BEING IN THE MIDDLE
BUSINESS BEING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SO ON.
EAST AND SO ON. AND SO THEY STARTED TO PUSH THE
AND SO THEY STARTED TO PUSH THE ENVELOPE PROPERLY TO ACHIEVE
ENVELOPE PROPERLY TO ACHIEVE WHAT THEIR LONGER TERM
WHAT THEIR LONGER TERM OBJECTIVES WERE IN THE MIDDLE
OBJECTIVES WERE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, TO INFLUENCE IT MORE
EAST, TO INFLUENCE IT MORE CLEARLY AND SO ON.
CLEARLY AND SO ON. THE TROUBLE IS THEY DIDN’T
THE TROUBLE IS THEY DIDN’T EXPECT A DISPROPORTIONATE
EXPECT A DISPROPORTIONATE RESPONSE FROM THEIR ATTACKS.
RESPONSE FROM THEIR ATTACKS. NOW THEY DO HAVE TO THINK A
NOW THEY DO HAVE TO THINK A LITTLE MORE CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT
LITTLE MORE CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
HAPPENS NEXT. THEY’RE GONNA ATTACK, THERE’S NO
THEY’RE GONNA ATTACK, THERE’S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.
DOUBT ABOUT IT. THAT CAN TAKE A LOT OF DIFFERENT
THAT CAN TAKE A LOT OF DIFFERENT FORMS.
FORMS. A CYBERATTACK, FOR EXAMPLE, MANY
A CYBERATTACK, FOR EXAMPLE, MANY CYBER ATTACKS.
CYBER ATTACKS. THEY’RE VERY GOOD AT IT AND
THEY’RE VERY GOOD AT IT AND WE’RE NOT VERY GOOD AT DEFENDING
WE’RE NOT VERY GOOD AT DEFENDING AGAINST IT.
AGAINST IT. ATTACKS ON OUR LOCATIONS IN THE
ATTACKS ON OUR LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ALLIED LOCATIONS.
MIDDLE EAST, ALLIED LOCATIONS. BUT THEY HAVE TO BE VERY, VERY
BUT THEY HAVE TO BE VERY, VERY CAREFUL BECAUSE THE
CAREFUL BECAUSE THE ADMINISTRATION HAS ALREADY
ADMINISTRATION HAS ALREADY DEMONSTRATED A DISPROPORTIONATE
DEMONSTRATED A DISPROPORTIONATE RESPONSE AND THEY DON’T WANT TO
RESPONSE AND THEY DON’T WANT TO ENGENDER A DISPROPORTIONATE
ENGENDER A DISPROPORTIONATE RESPONSE FROM ANYTHING THAT THEY
RESPONSE FROM ANYTHING THAT THEY DO.
DO. SO I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO SEE
SO I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO SEE ATTACKS AND YOU ARE GOING TO SEE
ATTACKS AND YOU ARE GOING TO SEE THEM PROBABLY FROM THEIR ALLIES,
THEM PROBABLY FROM THEIR ALLIES, FROM THEIR PROXIES AND SO ON.
FROM THEIR PROXIES AND SO ON. THE IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE
THE IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS TODAY SAID, HEY,
UNITED NATIONS TODAY SAID, HEY, SOMETHING’S GOING TO HAPPEN BUT
SOMETHING’S GOING TO HAPPEN BUT IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH US,
IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH US, PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY AND SO ON.
PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY AND SO ON. THERE IS SOMETHING IN THE
THERE IS SOMETHING IN THE OFFING.
OFFING. PROBABLY SEVERAL ATTACKS,
PROBABLY SEVERAL ATTACKS, HARASSMENT OF SHIPS IN THE
HARASSMENT OF SHIPS IN THE STRAITS AND SO ON AND SO FORTH.
STRAITS AND SO ON AND SO FORTH. BUT IT’S PROBABLY GOING TO BE A
BUT IT’S PROBABLY GOING TO BE A WHILE BEFORE THEY DO IT, THEY
WHILE BEFORE THEY DO IT, THEY HAVE TO FIGURE OUT THE CALCULUS.
HAVE TO FIGURE OUT THE CALCULUS. >> THE QUDS FORCES WHICH
>> THE QUDS FORCES WHICH SOLEIMANI WAS IN CHARGE OF, THE
SOLEIMANI WAS IN CHARGE OF, THE IRANIAN FORCES AS WELL AS THIS
IRANIAN FORCES AS WELL AS THIS NETWORK OF LOOSELY-AFFILIATED
NETWORK OF LOOSELY-AFFILIATED IRANIAN-BACKED MILITIAS, TAKING
IRANIAN-BACKED MILITIAS, TAKING HIM OUT OF THE PICTURE, SOMEBODY
HIM OUT OF THE PICTURE, SOMEBODY ELSE HAS NOW BEEN INSTALLED.
ELSE HAS NOW BEEN INSTALLED. IS THIS AN INTERCHANGEABLE PART
IS THIS AN INTERCHANGEABLE PART HERE, CAN YOU JUST THROW
HERE, CAN YOU JUST THROW SOMEBODY ELSE IN AND THE WHOLE
SOMEBODY ELSE IN AND THE WHOLE OPERATION KEEPS GOING?
OPERATION KEEPS GOING? OR HAVE IRAN’S CAPABILITIES HERE
OR HAVE IRAN’S CAPABILITIES HERE BEEN, FOR A PERIOD, DIMINISHED?
BEEN, FOR A PERIOD, DIMINISHED? >> IN MOST CIRCUMSTANCES AND IN
>> IN MOST CIRCUMSTANCES AND IN MOST ARMIES, THERE IS GREAT
MOST ARMIES, THERE IS GREAT INTERCHANGEABILITY AND IT ALMOST
INTERCHANGEABILITY AND IT ALMOST DOESN’T MATTER WHO YOU HAVE AS
DOESN’T MATTER WHO YOU HAVE AS THE HEAD BECAUSE HE’S GOING TO
THE HEAD BECAUSE HE’S GOING TO ROTATE OUT IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
ROTATE OUT IN TWO OR THREE YEARS IN ANY CASE TO BE REPLACED BY
IN ANY CASE TO BE REPLACED BY SOMEONE ELSE.
SOMEONE ELSE. THIS IS VERY MUCH A DIFFERENT
THIS IS VERY MUCH A DIFFERENT SITUATION.
SITUATION. DON’T FORGET SOLEIMANI HAS BEEN
DON’T FORGET SOLEIMANI HAS BEEN THERE FOR A LONG, LONG TIME, IN
THERE FOR A LONG, LONG TIME, IN EXCESS OF 20 YEARS.
EXCESS OF 20 YEARS. HIS DEPUTY, WHO HAS NOW TAKEN
HIS DEPUTY, WHO HAS NOW TAKEN HIS PLACE, QAANI, HAS BEEN WITH
HIS PLACE, QAANI, HAS BEEN WITH HIM FOR A LONG, LONG TIME.
HIM FOR A LONG, LONG TIME. SOLEIMANI WAS A SEMI INDEPENDENT
SOLEIMANI WAS A SEMI INDEPENDENT OPERATOR WHO COULD MORE OR LESS
