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What’s up guys?
Jared here.
With the final season of Game of Thrones right around the corner, there’s one thing everyone’s
talking about--
Who will end up on the Iron Throne?
Heck, there are even betting sites setting
the odds —
Bran Stark’s in the lead at 3 to 1; while
in last-- it’s a four way tie between The
Mountain, Tormund Giantsbane, Yara & Theon Greyjoy at 150 to 1 (which seems like a bit
of a steal for Theon, just saying).
Look, we can’t count cards or rig the roulette table, but we can do something even better
-- read.
The mind needs books like a sword needs
a whetstone
And not just Game of Thrones, but also all
the sources that inspired George R.R. Martin’s
UNFINISHED opus.
After delving into Game of Thrones’ predecessors, we’ve come up with our own method -- using
literature, history, and classical myths --to
determine who has the best shot to rule Westeros!
So, Vegas here we come!!?
Well…
Maybe.
Honestly, we’re really just taking educated
guesses - but hey, the more you know!
For the purposes of this video, we’re limiting the options to characters that are actually
on the show, not just in the books.
Which means -- sorry Aegon Targaryen, Patchface, Edric Storm, Jon Connington, Dick Crabb, Arianne
Martell, Harry the Heir, Willas Tyrell, Garlan
Tyrell, Victarion Greyjoy, Strong Belwas,
Tyrek Lannister, and all the other characters deemed not quite HBO worthy…
But hey, there’s always a chance you could
come out on top in the books… if they’re
ever written.
Now, recently twenty posters were released
for the new season, showing each main character
sitting on the Iron Throne.
So it’s a good bet one of these characters
will ultimately reign supreme.
So unless there’s some deliberate misinformation, we’re going to assume Gilly, Podrick, and
Gendry are out of luck…
Now, our twenty contenders in the running
for the Iron Throne are--
Bran Stark, Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow,
Arya Stark, Sansa Stark, Davos Seaworth, Theon
Greyjoy, Jaime Lannister, Tyrion Lannister,
Samwell Tarly, Cersei Lannister, Brienne of
Tarth, Lord Varys, Euron Greyjoy, Melisandre, Grey Worm, Jorah Mormont, Missandei, Sandor
Clegane, and The Night King.
So let’s winnow down this competition, Game of Thrones style.
Welcome to this Wisecrack Edition on the end of Game Of Thrones, and spoilers are kind
of the whole point so yeah, spoilers ahead.
But before we get into that, I want to give
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And now, back to the show.
CRITERIA #1 - The Fantasy Precedent
The first filter we can use is Martin’s
relationship to the fantasy genre.
As many have pointed out, Game of Thrones constantly subverts the tropes of fantasy
films and novels - like the chivalrous knight,
the charming prince, good inevitably conquering
evil, and so on.
In Game of Thrones, the heroic do gooders
get beheaded, stabbed, and stabbed again.
Prince Charming is revealed to be a sociopathic dick . And there’s no magical object that’ll
solve every problem…
But to say that Martin is just trying to turn
fantasy on it head is kind of missing the
point.
He’s deconstructing fantasy in order to
reconstruct it.
Now what do I mean by that?
Well let’s look at what Martin has to say
about one of his biggest influences: JRR Tolkien.
“Ruling is hard.
This was maybe my answer to Tolkien, whom, as much as I admire him, I do quibble with.
Lord of the Rings had a very medieval philosophy: that if the king was a good man, the land
would prosper.
We look at real history and it’s not that
simple.
Tolkien can say that Aragorn became king and reigned for a hundred years, and he was wise
and good.
But Tolkien doesn’t ask the question: What
was Aragorn’s tax policy??”
In a classic fantasy story, a banished princess, like say Danerys, would fly in on a dragon
and triumphantly reclaim her throne and fix
all the realm’s problems.
But Game of Thrones complicates this narrative at every turn.
Even acts as unilaterally “good” as freeing
slaves aren’t instantly rewarded.
Some of the former slaves WANT to go back to the fighting pits, nearby cities declare
war, and she has to deal with insurrection
from former slave owners.
Essentially, Danerys has to learn the hard
work of ruling.
Similarly, Jon does the right thing by taking
in the free folk who are about to be turned
into zombies, and he gets caesar’ed
So, Martin wants Lord of the Rings, with a
little more realism.
So how does that get us closer to knowing
who wins the Iron Throne?
Well, Martin’s goal is portraying the hard
work of leadership and the difficulty of heroism,
which is only a theme worth pursuing if you
think leadership and heroism are important.
As much as Robb Stark getting stabbed might make us thinks that Martin is a sadist who
wants to make us sad,
we think he’s trying to give us a story where victory is hard-won
and achieved with lots of sacrifice.
So will the Night King win?
We don’t think so.
It wouldn’t make sense with the themes,
and it would contradict a central tenet of
Tolkien’s work, The Eucatastrophe- something we’ve talked about before.
Tolkien, who also loved killing off beloved
characters, coined the term eucatastrophe
to describe the intervention of the divine
or an inexplicable force that lets our heroes
do what appears impossible.
We’re putting our money on Game of Thrones having a eucatastrophic ending.
Per Tolkien, “The eucatastrophic ...is a
sudden and miraculous grace: never to be counted
on to recur.
It does not deny the existence of sorrow and failure: the possibility of these is necessary
to the joy of deliverance; it denies ...universal final defeat”
Eucatastrophe is when something good comes out of something very negative: so, when Dany
steps on a funeral pyre and comes out unburnt with three new born dragons.
It’s hard to see the joy in the entirety
of Westeros being turned into an army of undead
ice zombies.
That, and Martin has chafed against people
calling him a nihilist - and that ending sounds
pretty nihilistic.
The same is true for the political ‘villains’
of Game of Thrones.
If they win, where is the joy, what did the
lost lives of our heroes mean?
Cersei or Euron winning would only convey
the message that all heroism is hopeless,
which is at odds with Martin’s distaste
for nihilism.
That leaves us with JUST seventeen potential rulers left....
So, on to Criteria #2 - The Historical Precedent
It’s important to note that Game of Thrones
is preoccupied not just with who rules on
the throne, but who can legitimately do so.
The first novel and the first season of Game of Thrones is about the lead up to the war
of the five kings, which comes about because of differing claims to the throne.
In Martin’s most recent book, Fire and Blood, he places a large emphasis on The Dance Of
Dragons, a Targaryen war for legitimacy.
Westeros is also highly influenced by a historical war of legitimacy - the English War of the
Roses - which was catalyzed as two factions laid claim to succeed Henry VI.
Not everyone can just raise their hand up
and suddenly become king.
No, you need our aforementioned legitimacy.
Ruben Martinez, a law professor at the University of Valencia, argues that Game Of Thrones explores
three kinds of legitimacy.
One) Genealogical - this refers to the biologically inherited right of kings and queens to rule.
So after King Robert Baratheon dies, his successor is his son, Joffrey - it’s biological.
But if Joffrey was proven to be, say, the
incestual offspring of Jaime & Cersei…
Well, then suddenly he has no genealogical
claim to the throne.
Second) Divine legitimacy -- This type of
legitimacy relies on God’s will, presenting
the ruler as heavenly ordained.
So think of how Melissandre extols Stannis
as the rightful king because The Lord of Light
deemed it so - allegedly.
Third) Human Legitimacy.
This refers to Machiavelli’s notion of simultaneously being loved and feared by the people.
There’s no one who better embodies this
than Daenerys, who claims her legitimacy as
ruler of Meereen through the love of the common man --
But when that isn’t enough…
Good old fashioned fear!
And hey - we did a video about that too
Human legitimacy also means that in order
to be an effective leader you can’t simply
destroy everyone that gets in your way.
There needs to be diplomatic and military
prowess.
A leader that trusts people around him too
much ends up like Jon but at the other extreme:
a leader who burns all their enemies tends
to spawn lots of new enemies.
There has to be a mix of diplomacy and military might.
Nowhere is this more clear than the difference between the Starks and Lannisters.
Tywin uses force and deception to cement his legacy - he’s got a big army because he’s
got lots of money.
But, because he’s a jerk, his allies aren’t
loyal, so when he dies-- lannister power wanes,
and claims to geneological legitimacy get
messy - with the incest and what not - so
everything goes to shit.
Whereas, when the Starks have nothing, they are able to call on loyalty to muster new
armies and alliances, or resort to persuasion when loyalty starts to falter.
It’s the difference between manufactured
and legitimate rule.
The King in the North! The King in the North!
Jorah Mormont, former SLAVER, commands no army and has no claims to legitimacy.
Brienne at best may be related to Duncan the Tall, a former Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.
She also has no claim or army.
And while Sam may come from a good family (that's now barbecued) he also has no army
and no claim.
If Martin wants to make the politics of Westeros a realistic depiction of battling claims to
the throne, as he’s spent so much time focusing on in the books and show - it doesn’t really
fit the mold for some rando to sit on the
iron throne.
What would be the take away?
That politics is bad so don’t even try?
So it seems that the person that would sit
on the iron throne at the end would have some
sort of genealogical claim, maybe an added divine claim, and would foster fear and love
through the appropriate use of force.
That would disqualify anyone that is needlessly cruel and anyone that doesn’t inspire fear
because they have no military force.
So sorry Sandor Clegane, Missandei, Grey Worm, Lord Varys, Melisandre, and Davos Seaworth
-- none of you have a genealogical, divine
or human claim to the throne.
Also, they just don’t have the screen time
to justify sitting on the throne.
The whole “surprise ending”... little
bit too Scooby Doo.
This leaves us with just eight still in the
running:
CRITERIA #3 - The Mythological Precedent
Aside from cribbing from Lord of the Rings
and English History, Martin loves him some
Mythology, especially the Norse variety.
We’re not the first ones to point out this
similarity either -- there’s a whole blog
dedicated to the parallels between Norse myths and Game of Thrones - and it hasn’t evaded
the watchful eye of reddit either.
Now, the problem with Norse Myth is that there isn’t one uniformed telling: it isn’t
a consolidated story.
There are variations on the numerous Norse characters and their exploits.
But the basic function of these myths is always the same: to valorize and demonize certain
traits within society.
So positive traits like bravery, fertility,
and luck are upheld, whereas negative traits
like jealousy, dishonesty, cowardice, and
greed are vilified.
An important note: When doing mythic analysis, you’re comparing structures, archetypes,
and symbols.
Often, things can be mapped onto stories in various ways, but these are the parallels
that make the most sense to us.
In Game of Thrones, some elements of Norse Myth are paralleled in entire houses- the
Baratheans, Targareans, etc.
But there’s also specific character parallels,
and all of this can help us narrow down who
has the best shot at the throne.
It isn’t always a one-to-one ratio, but
it’s preeetttttyyy close.
So let’s take one of the most famous Norse
myths: Ragnarok.
Ragnarok is the OG conflict of ice and fire:
Ice Giants and A Fire Giant with a huge flaming
sword, and his fire giant friends, run roughshod all over the world, spelling the end of most
of the gods and the world as we know it.
But for clarification, these giants aren’t
even necessarily big, they’re more elementals,
like say, a zombie ice wizard .
Ragnorak, which is the end of the world as
we know it, is preceded by a period of intense
wars, famine, disease and corruption.
But that chaos is just the prelude to Ragnorak itself, where things get even crazier, and
more magical.
In Game of Thrones, we can see that parallel in the instability and wars in the seven Kingdoms,
followed by hoards of ice zombies invading
the world and a woman showing up with dragons.
One easy parallel to make is between House Baratheon and Thor.
The most famous, Robert Baratheon, wielded a big hammer.
Thor is the God of thunder, lightning and
storms - and the Baratheon’s ancestral castle
is called Storm’s End, where it’s always
raining and thundering.
In Norse Myth, Thor strikes down the world
serpent with his hammer, whereas Robert strikes
down Rhaegar Targaryen with a hammer - the Targaryen house sigil bearing the serpent-like
dragon.
During Ragnorak - Thor fights the world serpent once again, and they kill each other.
So if we impose this on to the show - it’s
not looking good for the Boratheon’s or
the Targareon’s.
Will Robert’s bastard Gendry kill Daenerys
Targaryon, or the ice dragon in a blaze of
glory?
Maybe.
Then there’s Odin and his resemblance to
the three eyed raven.
Odin gets power from magical trees and has two ravens that see and know everything.
Not unlike The Three Eyed raven, who gets
his power from a magical tree, can see through
time and space, and even controls ravens.
Notably, Odin gets eaten by Fenrir a giant
wolf.
So if the original three eyed raven was Odin, maybe Bran is the wolf, which is the symbol
of house Stark.
This might be a good clue if Bran is the Night King - because Wolves in Norse Mythology just
run around killing stuff.
But even if you don’t buy Bran going bad,
his actions already killed the Odin figure,
so it checks out.
If Bran is Fenrir the wolf, he is bound by
Tyr, who we can compare to Jamie Lannister.
Similar to the binding of Fenrir, Bran is
“bound” in a different way, by getting
paralyzed.
Tyr loses a hand binding the wolf, where Jamie loses a hand in the war precipitated by him
throwing a kid out the window.
Tyr ends up getting swallowed by a different wolf so we don’t think it’s looking great
for Jamie either.
Other similarities are everywhere: There’s
the god of revenge Vidar - so maybe Aria - who
spends her time learning to become a ninja
who can kill everyone who has wronged her.
The god Heimdall, the watchmen of the gods who blows a horn to warn of Ragnorok, is a
pretty clear parallel for The Night’s Watch,
who blow a horn to warn of the Night King’s
invasion.
Cersei resembles the goddess Hel who is characterized by greed and cruelty.
While Targaryens generally resemble the world serpent, Daenerys shares similarities with
Surtr, who you might recognize from Thor Ragnorak.
Surtr kills the god of virility and prosperity,
which sounds like Dany as she sets fire to
a loot train and burns a bunch of food , as
well as her enemies, with maybe more burnination
to come.
There’s also Tyrion who is a strong parallel
for Mimir
(whose severed head you might recognize from God of War).
Mimir is a disembodied head who provides wisdom to Odin and the other gods.
He has no body to fight with so he uses his
mind.
The same way as Tyrion.
In particular, Mimir remembers the past and uses it to inform the future, the same way
Tyrion draws his knowledge from books and history.
Mimir was also once aligned with the enemies of the gods and later became their friend,
much like Tyrion abandoning the Lannisters for Daenerys.
We can see another parallel between Sansa and the Goddess Idunn.
Idunn picked the apples for the gods and represented beauty and innocence before she got kidnapped
and taken to a nightmare castle.
Sounds an awful lot like how sweet Sansa ends up married to the notably less sweet Ramsay
Bolton.
But where we can really figure out how Game of Thrones ends is by understanding the structure
of Ragnorak, rather than individual character similarities.
Real quick, let’s refresh the events of
Ragnarok.
The human world is trash and full of violence.
Baldur, beloved prince of the gods gets killed, a long winter follows, ice giants attack,
fire giants attack, huge war, and the world
restarts from the ashes.
Importantly, Baldur’s death is a harbinger
of this coming apocalypse.
So, we’ve got violent humans, a long winter,
ice enemies, a fair share of fire, and a huge
war in Game of Thrones.
But who’s Baldur in Westeros?
Well that’s probably Robb Stark.
Baldur was a beloved prince killed at a celebration through treachery.
Robb stark, a beloved prince, was also killed at a celebration through treachery.
Both of their deaths signal the transition
from the conflict of men to the conflict of
Gods.
In mythology, this is the first sign that
Ragnarok is on the way.
In Game of Thrones, the Red Wedding solidifies Lannister power, for a while.
With the Lannisters basically winning the
war in season 3, season 4 culminates in a
battle with Willdlings - who are escaping
the scary ice wizards, so we can see the narrative
focus shifting to the magical plot, rather
than the political plot.
Ragnorak happens when our ice and fire giants attack the human world, and the Gods show
up, and tons of chaotic fighting ensues.
Brothers fight brothers.
Gods square off.
A giant wolf named Fenrir breaks free and
starts eating everything.
A big tree and a giant serpent start shaking
the world.
Also a bunch of dead people set sail on a
ship made of human nail clippings.
In the end, almost no one makes it out alive.
So, long winter.
Check.
The dead rising.
Check.
An apocalyptic show-down.
More than likely.
By the end of Ragnarok – all the Gods are
dead.
Thor, Odin, Loki…
The entire world crumbles in on itself.
So is that it?
Ultimately -- everyone’s dead and no one
takes the throne?
Well, not quite.
Because there are a few survivors, but before we get there, let’s talk about a glaring
omission of ours: Jon Snow.
How does he fit into Ragnarok?
Well … he doesn’t.
Martin has a tendency to draw from many mythologies, and while Jon doesn’t have a correlate in
the Norse mythology, he certainly has other
mythic parallels, including King Arthur.
Both are the rightful heirs to their respective throne even though their royal past is hidden.
They both have magical swords.
They both learn honor and duty from their
less privileged upbringings, which makes them
ideal leaders.
Arthur even fought off a tribe of barbarians
who then assimilated into his kingdom, much
like Jon with the Wildlings, but here’s
the kicker.
They call Arthur The Once and Future King
for a reason.
After he was mortally wounded by his bastard son Mordred, similar to how Jon is killed
by his, quote, “brothers,” Arthur disappears,
to one day return when the land needs him
most.
Sounds an awful lot like our hero getting
stabbed up and coming back to life just in
time for Ragnarok.
So if Jon is King Arthur than he gets the
throne - right?
Well, not so fast.
After the huge confrontation in Ragnorak,
the world sinks into the seas and there’s
nothing left but the void, so who remains?
The children.
Oh, won’t somebody please think of the
children!
Because per the Norse legend, out of the ashes of Ragnarok-- a new world is born...
“A new world, green and beautiful, will
arise out of the waters…
A new sun, the daughter of the previous one, will rise in the sky.
And all of this will be presided over by a
new, almighty ruler.”
The survivors of Ragnorak are the children
of the Gods: Vidar & Vali, the sons of Odin;
and Magni & Modi, the sons of Thor, along
with many of the Goddesses.
In Game of Thrones, we think this might just be construed as “the next generation.”
What next generation, you might ask?
Well, possibly Tyrion, an outcast who resents the established order of things.
Maybe he could get an army, and there are
fan theories of a hidden genealogy.
Then there’s John Snow, also an outsider,
and one of the “children,” so to speak.
He’s got some great genealogical and divine claims, and has what we like to call
“people skills.”
Also, an army.
Arya, who we compared to Vidar, is still alive in Ragnorak too.
But as far as Bran, who we compared to Fenrir, he gets murdered by Vidar, suggesting Arya
might turn on her brother.
And of course, Daenerys, who has an army,
legitimacy, and is always trying to build
a new world out of the ashes her dragons leave behind.
So that leaves Tyrion, Dany, Jon, Arya, Sansa and Theon.
Now, that’s too many people to bet on so
let’s use narrative structures to narrow
it down.
Theon’s arc is about regretting the terrible
things he did to satisfy his own ambition.
So, no throne for him.
Arya doesn’t even care about the throne,
she just wants revenge.
Sansa is growing into the Stark in Winterfell.
And Tyrion’s story is about him reckoning
with his family and making him a secret Targarean
this late in the game ruins all of that thematic work.
That leaves Dany and Jon, the heroes of the story.
But Martin loves making heroes sacrifice themselves for the greater good, which is partly why
Stannis got his comeuppance.
So it’s likely at least one of them is going
out in a blaze of glory.
But between Jon and Dany, we think the best shot, checking every box of legitimacy, giving
us a eucatastrophe proper, and symbolizing a new world born out of Ragnorak is…
The child of Fire and Ice - aka the child
of Jon Snow and Daenerys Targaryan.
If the houses are a kind of loose stand in
for the Gods, than just as the Gods die in
Ragnorak, so will those houses.
So perhaps Westeros will be so thoroughly
pillaged that anything we would recognize
of the Starks, Targareans, Lannisters and
so on is completely destroyed - leaving just
our new tiny symbol of hope.
Or maybe the equivalent of the gods dying
means there will be no iron throne at all,
or the previous measures of legitimacy will
be entirely thrown out the window.
Obviously all we can do is take an educated guess, but for what it’s worth if you find
yourself blacked out in Vegas, we’d put
our money on Dany and Jon’s child.
But what do you think?
Did our resident Game of Thrones nerds miss something?
Let us know what you think in the comments and hey- if you’re looking to set yourself
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as always, thanks for watching peace.
