Let's begin an in-depth discussion with experts
from around the world. Today we connect with
an economist in the United States.
The world's richest countries have poured
unprecedented sums of money into the global
economy as the growing number of COVID-19
cases have shuttered production, broken supply
chains, disrupted travel and quarantined millions
of workers and consumers.
As businesses across the world have been paralyzed
amid the ongoing pandemic,...
Economists now say a recession is no longer
a matter of "if" but "when." Some say it is
already reality in the U.S., Europe and other
major economies.
So the question is now how bad will it be.
We have Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of
Economics at Yale University joining us today.
Thank you for joining the program
The Bank of America forecasts the U.S. economy
to slump as much as 12 percent in the second
quarter some have been more pessimistic, estimating
as much as 14 percent. AND it's not just the
U.S. that's expected to suffer from the COVID-19
fallout. Global growth is expected to fall
to the lowest level since the 2008 crisis.
Do you agree with this view and do you think
a
global recession 
is something we could
have anticipated?
Recessions in the past began in the manufacturing
sector but this time around, it's displacing
a massive number of service workers. How does
that change the situation 
and how we should respond to it?
The 
economic effects of COVID-19 caused by reduced
spending will be just as large, if not larger
than those coming from disruptions to supply
chains and reductions in the workforce.
Policymakers in the United States, Europe
and Asia have slashed interest rates and opened
liquidity taps to encourage people to buy
more and take out bigger loans. But what are
these measures' limitations?
Corporate debt is said to
be at its peak. It seems we need a comprehensive
safety net to prevent firms from going bankrupt
and long-term financial damage. South Korea,
Singapore, and a number of European countries
have drawn up aid packages worth billions
of dollars to support businesses and of course
the U.S. has been working on a trillion-dollar
stimulus plan. What are the key measures that
should be taken?
What do we need to do differently
from the 2008 financial crisis?
Many are hoping for a strong rebound or a
V-shaped recovery, as opposed to a U-shaped
one with an extended low. But that would require
a strong resurgence in confidence for businesses
and consumers. Does this look likely?
How do you think this recession will change
the global economy in the long-run?
The hardest hit will
be
people who work paycheck to paycheck. Can
they ever recover from this?
What are further risks that we should
look out for 
as we try to safeguard our economies?
Do you see any room for global action would
an internationally coordinated economic stimulus
program would be more effective than actions
by individual countries?
That's all
we have for today. Thank you for your insights,
Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of Economics
at Yale University.
