I'm skipping the cold open for
this segment of Is This Real,
because you already know
what the video is about.
You saw the title.
Anyway, now look at this
clip I found from C-span.
Then I will draw one
canister, madam vice chair
will draw a second canister--
This boring proceeding
of white people
is the final result
of a Virginia election
that caused Republican David
Yancey to defeat Democrat
Shelley Simonds and win election
to the House of Delegates
in Virginia.
In 2017!
Yeah, you're seeing this right!
They are pulling
names out of a bowl!
The winner of House
District 94 is David Yancey.
Yeah, I thought this was
democracy, not randomocracy!
The election was decided by
pulling names out of a bowl
because it was a tie.
It was the fairest way they
felt that they could decide.
So, does your vote matter?
Is this real?
OK, I sort of lied
about the cold open.
I did use it.
But look it's great.
I built it.
Well, I'm going to use it.
Elections are a tough
time for a lot of people.
We're expected to
research and listen, weigh
different options and
complicated policies,
and avoid propaganda.
And what we really
want to do is--
actually, I don't know what
people really want to do.
I'm a government nerd.
I want to be doing that.
Are we still on pizza?
I think we're on tacos now.
Are we on tacos?
OK.
What we really want
to do is eat tacos!
Am I hip now?
Am I cool?
And every election
season, another story
appears advocating that you
not vote at all, because
of your political persuasion,
your personal views, where
you live, your race,
your sexuality,
or because some of
those, plus they
say it just doesn't matter.
Which can be true, depending
on why you're voting.
Scientifically, chances
that your voting matter,
according to a paper about the
2012 election, was, at best, 1
in 10 million, and at
worst 1 in 60 million.
So I called the lead researcher
on that paper, Dr. Andrew
Gelman at Columbia, and I asked
him, does my vote not matter?
Well, if you have a race where
it's expected to be very close,
then your vote has a
bigger chance of mattering.
So sure, I mean, you have a
race for mayor, or governor,
or senator, or
wherever, which is
expected to be extremely close.
And if it's expected
to be close,
then your vote is more
likely to make a difference.
Commonly, the people
who study this
are economists or statisticians,
and they're thinking of it
mathematically, and the payoff.
When people say that
your vote doesn't matter,
the math or science
is saying that it
doesn't make a lot
of sense if you're
trying to decide the election.
Your vote always
counts, but one vote
might not matter if you're
thinking of it as decisive,
as the vote that breaks a tie.
But is that why you vote?
Do you cast a ballot
so that you are
the decisive tie breaking vote?
Because if so, that
is a shock to me.
Like I'm-- shook?
I'm shook?
Is this what shook is?
Civics isn't about winning,
it's about expression.
Obviously, somebody has to win,
but the expression of a view
is just as important
as exercising power
over that view.
Now, Dr. Gelman
did say something
that I didn't expect here.
We took time to say that
voting is like buying a lottery
ticket, but if you win, the
prize doesn't go to you,
it goes to the whole country.
The voting is not a selfish
act, because to vote
is to have a small chance
of making a big difference
in a lot of people's lives.
If you were to say,
well, I want to vote
because this candidate's
going to cut my taxes, that's
kind of silly, because your
chance of your vote making
a difference is so small.
But if you were to
say, I want to vote
because I think
this candidate will
be good for the country,
that's a big deal.
It is a big deal.
Voting is a selfless act.
You vote for you, but
you also vote for others.
That's how the
United States works.
In 1782, Congress added e
pluribus unum-- from many,
one--
to our money and to the great
seal of the United States.
It was in fact our de facto
motto until the 1950s,
until we changed because we
were afraid of communism.
But that's neither
here nor there.
The US was always
about power in numbers.
So is this real?
Yeah, it kind of is.
One vote may not always
be decisive in a national
election, but it always counts.
It always means something.
According to Gelman, the
smaller the election,
the more power your
individual vote
has, even if the reach
of that policy or person
might not be as big.
Remember, not all
elections are national.
Some are local or regional.
And if you live
in smaller states,
those are even more powerful.
And even in big states, ballot
propositions, local elections,
state legislatures-- you should
be looking at those elections
just as strongly,
even though they
aren't featured on cable news.
US elections have been
decided by coin flips,
and by drawing straws.
Ties happen.
Not often, but they do happen.
In 1977, the first black
mayor of Ann Arbor, Michigan
was elected by one
vote out of 21,000.
In 2008, Alaska
Republican Mike Kelly
kept his seat in the state
legislature by one vote.
The 19th Amendment, giving
women the right to vote,
was ratified in the
state of Tennessee,
the last state needed for
ratification, by one vote.
More Perfect tells this
story amazingly well,
so go listen to it.
But let me wrap with this--
it's the expression that's
important.
And you practice this,
even if you don't vote.
Because you watch TV, and
you talk to the characters,
and you cheer.
Come on sports!
Oh!
They can't hear you.
That's irrational.
But would you stop?
Of course you wouldn't.
Anyone can easily argue
that shouting for sports
matters way less than voting.
But in the end a single raindrop
does not create a flood.
A single photon does
not light a room.
Use whatever analogy you want.
The volume of expression
is what affects change.
And in my opinion,
if you're only
voting to prove that your vote
matters, that you're decisive,
then you're voting wrong.
Decisions are made
by those who show up.
And if you choose not
to show up because you
believe that your vote
doesn't matter, guess what?
You're right.
However, if you choose to
show up because you believe
your vote matters?
You're right.
And that's what's real.
Thank you so much for watching.
Join the nerd fam.
You can find me on Patreon,
you can subscribe here
on the channel.
And get out there and vote.
Get your friends to vote,
drive people to the polls,
do whatever you can--
[INAUDIBLE] Kind of giving
away my feelings about this
with this shirt, huh.
No matter who you
vote for, just vote.
