On November 9th, 2016, around 2:30am Eastern
Time, Donald Trump won enough electoral votes
to become the President-elect of the United
States of America.
Trump’s victory was unprecedented, unexpected,
and for many on both sides of the political
spectrum, unbelievable.
Seemingly everything we thought we knew about
polling, the media, and the population itself
was wrong.
So how did Donald Trump win the 2016 Election?
Well, one major upset was the inability to
predict which candidate each demographic would
prefer.
According to preliminary exit polls, Trump
carried mostly white, male voters, while Clinton
carried minority female voters.
But a smaller proportion of white, black,
hispanic, and asian-american voters cast their
ballots for the Democratic candidate in 2016
than in 2012, something polls were unable
to predict.
Minority voters were expected to make up for
Clinton’s lower performance among white
male voters, especially following xenophobic,
and arguably racist rhetoric from Trump.
Clinton’s inability to garner enough votes
from these demographics is part of the reason
Clinton narrowly lost in key states such as
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Since 1992 these states have been Democratic
presidential strongholds, but they have large
populations of rural and working class white
voters, who make up a majority of Trump’s
base.
In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in
Wisconsin by seven points, whereas this year,
Clinton lost by just a single point.
Clinton’s problem in 2016 was that she simply
did not gather the democratic support she
needed, while Trump’s base stayed consistent.
Between 2012 and 2016 nearly an identical
number of Wisconsin voters, 1.4 million, voted
Republican, while roughly a quarter of a million
fewer people voted Democrat.
 When more people vote, Democrats tend to
win, and in this election, more people didn’t
vote Democrat.
In 2008, nearly ten million more voted democrat
than Republican, in 2012 that number was down
to six million, and in 2016 the two parties
had nearly the same number of voters, and
Clinton even won the popular vote by about
a quarter of a million.
All the while, Republican votes have remained
consistent throughout all three elections.
It may be more accurate to say that Trump
didn’t win this election, so much as Clinton
lost it.
One of the big reasons proposed for this low
Democratic turnout is that Clinton simply
did not widely appeal to Democrat voters following
the defeat of Bernie Sanders.
Many of those who did not support her in the
primaries reported feeling coerced into voting
for her on the basis that she simply wasn’t
Trump.
States where Sanders won the primary, such
as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, didn’t see
the support Clinton needed to win in the general
election.
 Many of the same rural, working class voters
who cast their vote for Sanders may have been
more inclined to vote for any outsider candidate
rather than necessarily any Democrat.
Those who voted for Bernie Sanders: white
men, and millennials, went for Trump at higher
rates than in previous elections.
Exit polls even show that more Democrats voted
for Trump than Republicans voted Clinton.
And while Clinton got more votes overall from
minorities, millennials, and those making
under $50,000 annually Trump was able to secure
a larger portion of those demographics than
in previous elections.
The 2016 election was almost marked by extreme
voter apathy, despite the volume of rhetoric
in the lead up.
According to some reports, voter turnout was
the lowest it has been since the 2000 election
with nearly half of all eligible voters abstaining.
This election has proved wrong nearly every
political model used to predict the winner.
Hillary Clinton put up a strong campaign,
raised 1.3 billion dollars, and had some of
the best media organization in history.
But in the face of a growing global populist
movement, many have pointed to this election
as a referendum on change.
Unlike Obama, Clinton was unable to win over
the support she needed, despite gaining more
votes overall.
Ultimately, this election reflects a growing
voice in the United States, whether it be
those disillusioned with the political system,
those who feel disenfranchised within their
own party, and even the alt-right, which has
devastated the GOP and longtime members such
as the Bush family.
But it also shows a change in the way presidential
campaigns can be run.
Although Trump’s win is a surprise, it’s
the reality we all now live in.
As this reality sets in for the U.S. and beyond,
millions are still shocked and asking how
this year’s election predictions were so
off.
Should we really be trusting polls as much
as we have?
Why has polling accuracy declined so much?
Find out more in this video.
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