HERE WE GO, PARLIAMENTARY
GRIDLOCK.
DAVID: ASHLEY, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
JOINING US NOW IS STEVE HILTON,
HOST OF THE NEXT REVOLUTION
FORMER STRATEGY DIRECTOR FOR
DAVID CAMERON.
FIRST OF ALL, NOBODY EXPECTED A
DEFEAT THIS BIG.
IT WAS A HUGE MARGIN.
I'M JUST WONDERING EVERYBODY IS
SAYING OKAY SHE'S NOT GOING TO
LOSE THE NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE
TOMORROW, BUT HER DEFEAT WAS SO
BIG, MAYBE SHE WILL?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I AGREE WITH ASHLEY.
I DON'T THINK THAT SHE WILL.
IN THE END, THE CONSERVATIVES
WHO VOTED AGAINST HER PLAN ON
BREXIT, WHAT THEY DON'T WANT,
THEY MAY NOT WANT HER PLAN, BUT
THEY CERTAINLY DON'T WANT A
GENERAL ELECTION.
IF SHE'S VOTED DOWN IN THE
CONFIDENCE VOTE, THAT MEANS
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL
ELECTION.
AND THEY'RE RISKING HAVING A
LABOUR GOVERNMENT UNDER JEREMY
CORBIN WHICH THEY DON'T WANT
EITHER.
THE REAL PROBLEM HERE IS A
STRUCTURAL PROBLEM.
IT IS A LITTLE BIT LIKE THE
DIVIDED GOVERNMENT SITUATION
HERE IN AMERICA THAT WE'RE
SEEING.
ONLY MUCH MORE INTENSE.
YOU SEE, THE PROBLEM IS YOU HAD
A DIRECT VOTE ON BREXIT, BUT IN
PARLIAMENT, YOU HAVE A MAJORITY
AGAINST BREXIT.
AND THAT'S BASICALLY THE
DIVISION, THE STRUCTURAL
DIVISION WHICH MEANS THAT THE
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PEOPLE
WHO VOTED FOR BREXIT ACTUALLY
DISAGREE WITH THE PEOPLE ON
BREXIT, AND SO YOU'RE NEVER
GOING TO GET A VOTE IN
PARLIAMENT IN FAVOR OF ANYTHING
POSITIVE.
THAT'S WHY YOU'RE STUCK.
>> OH, STEVE, SO COMPLICATED.
STEVE, YOU KNOW, I WAS TAUGHT IN
SCHOOL THAT IF YOU'RE GOING TO
SAY NO, YOU COME UP WITH A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION, SO THEY
VOTED NO HERE, WHAT'S THE
SOLUTION?
DAVID: GOOD QUESTION.
>> THERE'S BASICALLY TWO
SOLUTIONS HERE.
THERE'S NO DEAL, WHICH MEANS
THAT ON THE OFFICIAL DATE,
CURRENTLY THE LAW, THE BRITISH
LAW PASSED BY THE BRITISH
PARLIAMENT IS THAT ON MARCH THE
29TH OF THIS YEAR, THE U.K. WILL
LEAVE THE EU, REGARDLESS OF WHAT
ANYTHING ELSE HAPPENS,
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE EU DOES,
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE'S A
NEGOTIATED DEAL OR NOT.
THAT'S CALLED NO DEAL.
IF YOU GET TO THAT POINT WITHOUT
ANY KIND OF DEAL, IT STILL
HAPPENS.
BREXIT HAPPENS.
IT'S JUST THAT YOU DON'T HAVE A
NEGOTIATED OUTCOME.
BY THE WAY, I FAVOR THAT.
THE REASON THAT'S GOOD IS
BECAUSE THAT IS THE ONLY OPTION
THAT ACTUALLY DELIVERS WHAT
PEOPLE VOTED FOR.
ACTUAL BREXIT.
THE ALTERNATIVE, WHICH IS
PARLIAMENT, THE MAJORITY OF
PARLIAMENT, CROSS PARTY, LABOUR
AND CONSERVATIVE, THEY GET
TOGETHER, THEY GET CONTROL OF
THE PROCESS, AND THEY EITHER
DELAY THAT, THEY PASS
LEGISLATION TO DELAY THE EXIT
DATE OR THEY PASS SOME OTHER
VERSION OF BREXIT, WHICH TURNS
OUT NOT TO BE BREXIT AT ALL
BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT EUROPEAN
LAW AND EUROPEAN REGULATIONS
STILL APPLY IN BRITAIN.
SO THE CHOICES ARE VERY SIMPLE,
NO DEAL OR NO BREXIT.
>> STEVE, YOU SAY YOU FAVOR THE
HARD BREXIT BECAUSE IT'S WHAT
PEOPLE VOTED FOR.
BUT I HAVE TO ASK YOU, DO YOU
THINK THAT WHEN PEOPLE VOTED FOR
BREXIT THEY KNEW THAT THEY WERE
VOTING FOR A HARD BORDER ONCE
AGAIN BETWEEN NORTHERN IRELAND
AND IRELAND AND ALL THE PAIN
THAT HISTORICALLY HAS COME WITH
THAT?
DID THEY KNOW THAT THEY WERE
DOING AWAY WITH FRICTIONLESS
TRADE BETWEEN ENGLAND AND THE
U.K. AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN
THE EU?
DID THEY KNOW THAT THEY WERE
GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE
LIVING IN THE U.K. FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES AND U.K. CITIZENS IN
OTHER COUNTRIES THAT INSTANTLY
WOULD HAVE TO LEAVE THE
COUNTRIES?
I DON'T THINK THEY REALLY
THOUGHT ABOUT ALL THIS STUFF
BECAUSE I'M NOT SURE THEY WERE
EVER TOLD ALL THIS STUFF.
>> THEY DID.
THEY WERE TOLD.
IT WAS VERY CLEAR.
IN FACT -- I WILL TELL YOU WHO
TOLD THEM, BOTH THE GOVERNMENT
WHO ARGUING TO STAY IN THE EU.
THEY DID A CAMPAIGN WHICH WAS
KNOWN AS PROJECT FEAR, AND
PROJECT FEAR WAS CONJURING UP
THE WORST POSSIBLE CASE THEIR
SCENARIO, AND ALL OF THOSE
ARGUMENTS WERE PUT TO THE
BRITISH PEOPLE IN THE CAMPAIGN.
THEY SAID YOU DO REALIZE, DON'T
YOU, IF YOU VOTE FOR THIS
BREXIT, THAT'S THE END OF BEING
IN THE SINGLE MARKET, THAT'S THE
END OF FRICTIONLESS TRADE,
THAT'S THE END OF THE SITUATION
IN IRELAND, THAT WE'VE HAD FOR
ALL THOSE YEARS, ALL THOSE
POINTS WERE PUT IN THE CAMPAIGN,
AND STILL PEOPLE VOTED FOR
BREXIT.
AND SO IT'S RIDICULOUS FOR THE
PEOPLE WHO NOW DON'T WANT BREXIT
TO SAY OH, WELL, NO ONE KNEW
ABOUT ALL THESE POTENTIAL
CONSEQUENCES.
THEY WERE THE ONES MAKING THOSE
POINTS IN THE CAMPAIGN.
>> STEVE -- IS THE SURVIVAL OF
THE EU AT STAKE ITSELF BECAUSE
IT SEEMS TO ME ITALY CAN'T GET
ITS DEBT UNDER CONTROL, IF THE
U.K. IS ALLOWED TO DROP OUT OR
DROPS OUT, WHATEVER HAPPENS, IT
SEEMS THAT ITALY COULD BE NEXT.
IT SEEMS LIKE A CASCADING EFFECT
COULD HAPPEN.
IF THAT HAPPENS IT SEEMS THE EU
BREAKS UP.
IS THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THE EU
AT STAKE HERE WITH WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THIS BREXIT?
>> THAT'S VERY QUESTION IS WHY
THIS PROCESS IS SUCH A
NIGHTMARE.
THE EU WANTS TO MAKE SURE THAT
IT ISN'T.
IT WANTS TO SEND A MESSAGE TO
ANY OTHER COUNTRY THINKING ABOUT
DOING THIS THAT IT WILL BE AN
ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE FOR YOU, AND
YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE REAL PAIN.
THAT'S WHY WE'RE IN THIS
TERRIBLE POSITION.
I DON'T THINK IT'S A THREAT
BECAUSE AT THE HEART OF THE EU,
YOU'VE GOT FRANCE AND GERMANY,
AND YOU MAY HAVE SOME COUNTRIES
AROUND THE EDGE WHO MAY CHOOSE
TO FOLLOW BRITAIN OUT, IF IT
WORKS OUT WELL FOR BRITAIN IN
THE YEARS AHEAD, BUT AT THE
CORE, YOU HAVE GOT SOME PEOPLE
THERE WHO TRULY BELIEVE IN THE
EUROPEAN STATE, WHERE NATIONAL
IDENTITIES ARE BASICALLY ERASED
AND YOU HAVE ONE GOVERNMENT FOR
EUROPE.
THAT'S WHAT THEY ACTUALLY WANT
TO SEE.
I THINK THAT POWERHOUSE FOR
INTEGRATION WILL CONTINUE AT THE
CORE OF THE EU.
>> STEVE, IT'S CAROL ROTH.
I HAVE TO SAY, THIS IS THE WORST
DEALMAKING GAME SHOW I HAVE
PROBABLY EVER SEEN.
BUT KEEPING WITH THE GAME
THEMES, WHAT KIND OF
PROBABILITIES DO YOU ATTACH AS
OF TODAY TO THE DIFFERENT
OUTCOMES?
DO YOU HAVE SORT OF A HANDICAP
ON WHAT PROBABILITY GOES WITH
WHICH POTENTIAL OUTCOME?
>> YEAH, I THINK THE MOST LIKELY
SITUATION IS THAT PARLIAMENT
TAKES CONTROL OF THE PROCESS.
IT DELAYS THE EXIT DATE AND
PUSHES FORWARD AN ALTERNATIVE
SOLUTION, WHICH BASICALLY KEEPS
THE U.K. IN THE EU.
IN OTHER WORDS, BREXIT IS
BASICALLY OVERTURNED.
THAT I THINK IS THE MOST LIKELY.
I WOULD GIVE IT SOMETHING LIKE
60%.
AND THEN I WOULD GIVE SOMETHING
LIKE 20% CHANCE FOR A SECOND
REFERENDUM BECAUSE THEY CAN'T
FIGURE IT OUT AND THEY GO BACK
FOR ANOTHER VOTE, AND THEN 20%
CHANCE FOR LEAVING WITHOUT A
DEAL.
BUT I THINK THE MOST LIKELY
SITUATION IS THAT BREXIT DOESN'T
HAPPEN.
DAVID: STEVE, LAST QUESTION,
DOES THIS POUNDING DEFEAT THAT
THERESA MAY SUFFERED TODAY, DOES
THAT INDICATE THAT RATHER THAN
WORRYING ABOUT WHAT MIGHT
HAPPEN, IF THERE IS A BREXIT,
THEY ARE MORE WORRIED AS THEY
WERE IN THE BEGINNING ABOUT
BEING CONTROLLED BY EUROPEAN
BUREAUCRATS?
>> NO, IT'S THAT PARLIAMENT
DOESN'T WANT BREXIT, AND
REMEMBER, THAT THE PROBLEM WITH
HER DEAL IS THAT NOBODY LIKED
IT, EVEN THE PRO BREXIT PEOPLE
DIDN'T LIKE IT BECAUSE IN THEIR
VIEW, IT WASN'T REALLY SOLVING
ANY OF THE PROBLEMS.
IT WAS BASICALLY A TRANSITION
PERIOD WITH A BIG PRICE TAG
ATTACHED, 39 BILLION POUNDS PAID
TO THE EU, BUT IT DIDN'T REALLY
GET TO THE REAL ANSWERS ON WHAT
THIS FUTURE RELATIONSHIP LOOKS
LIKE, AND THAT'S WHY IT DIDN'T
SATISFY ANYONE.
SO NO ONE SHOULD BE CRYING OVER
THE DEFEAT OF THIS DEAL.
IT WAS A TERRIBLE DEAL, AND
QUITE RIGHT THAT IT WAS DEFEATED
