A few decades ago space exploration was
spurred on by intense rivalries between
the United States and the Soviet Union
propelled by the eminent fear that if
one side ever relaxed today the other
would be launching missiles tomorrow but
nowadays it seems that space exploration
is spurred on by the ego of billionaires
tweeting at each other but hey as a
lover of space travel I'll take what I
can get so anyways massive fortunes and
egos aside let's try to figure out who's
gonna be the first to get humans to Mars
let's start with the obvious who are our
contenders as of now the only government
agency in the running is the u.s. is
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration fancy title but we're
just gonna call them NASA for short as
it stands it doesn't look like any other
countries are close India's space agency
is just getting off the ground both
literally and metaphorically the Russian
Rose cosmos and the European Space
Agency's drink plan to send a rover to
Mars next year is facing great concern
that it won't be ready in time for
launch and sending a Rover is nowhere
near the complexity of a manned mission
and the Chinese national space agency is
busy focusing on its own planned Mars
rover launch in 2020 but just because it
takes a few billion dollars to fund a
space agency doesn't mean it's got to be
limited to a bunch of bureaucrats the
biggest commercial space organizations
are Elon Musk's SpaceX Jeff Bezos Blue
Origin United Launch Alliance Boeing and
a handful of defense contractors who
don't seem very interested in peaceful
space exploration so we won't be talking
about them much so what are all their
plans well starting with the OGS NASA
plans to land astronauts in the mid
2030s after sending Rovers and base
components from 2020 to 2024 to support
the Martian landing and do a practice
launch sending four astronauts somewhere
between Earth and Mars by 2025
SpaceX the most ambitious of the bunch
hopes to land the first humans on the
red planet in 2024 using the starship
and bfr rockets currently in development
after a flyby of the moon in 2023 Blue
Origin hopes to beat SpaceX they're
aboard new Glen their first orbital
rocket
development but it isn't even scheduled
to make its opening debut until 2021
Boeing ula and all the defense
contractors aren't as concerned with
all-out personal glory and are only
making it to Mars if NASA chooses them
to carry their astronauts so why are all
these launches planned so many years in
advance well you can't just pop off to
Mars whenever you want at least not if
you want to do it efficiently at current
rocket speeds it takes about five to
seven months to make it to Mars
launching at a very specific window that
lines up the optimal orbits of Earth and
Mars launching any other time would take
a lot longer requiring more fuel and
food and increasing the risk of a cosmic
disaster like a solar flare hitting the
spacecraft the trick is that this launch
period is very specific it only comes
every two years and only lasts for about
three weeks on top of that there's only
about a one-hour period each day that
you can launch miss that window either
because of a problem with your rocket or
maybe there's just too many clouds in
the sky and you have to wait another two
years so the nix launch windows are in
2020 when NASA and the Chinese national
space agency plan on sending their
Rovers to Mars 2022 when at least two
bfr cargo vehicles are planned to make
demonstration landings on Mars and the
first real landing window in 2024 so
who's gonna get there first as the
reigning champs of space exploration
NASA has decades of experience in space
exploration and pulling off landings on
Mars let's not forget they're the only
ones to actually land humans on another
world and they did that before most
modern computer computation was even
invented but to make it to Mars first
you need determination during the Cold
War the Soviet provided the driving
force but now there's less motivation
and funding budgets can dry up with each
passing administration and be broken
down between NASA's numerous missions to
lead in space exploration you need to be
driven and while NASA has always been
driven the general public that funds it
cares a lot less so while there's a good
chance NASA can make its plans to land
in the 2030s that does open up the
window for someone to beat them their
first sadly that lowers the chance
Boeing ula and the private defense firms
will land humans first at least of those
three Boeing as the Lord
contractor for the first stage of NASA's
giant Space Launch System is in a better
position than the rest to be chosen
although Blue Origin gets a billion
dollars every year in funding from Jeff
Bezos selling Sauk and Amazon it has a
lot fewer accomplishments than most
people realize it's talked about a lot
but their first commercial orbital
rocket the new clan won't even make its
opening launch for another two years
while Blu origins new Glen will likely
be a great rocket far more advanced than
what got us to the moon in the 70s
they're basically where SpaceX was in
2008 a decade ago when they were first
developing the Falcon 9 at a certain
point it's just too much of a gap to
overcome and still be first
lastly fuelled seemingly by Musk's own
determination is SpaceX I want to show
you a graph on the y-axis we have the
cost per launch on the x-axis the
maximum payload in simple terms the
further to the right and the further
down a dot is the better and more
cost-effective that rocket is here's
every major rocket launched before 2017
and here are all the ones since 2017
here is the Delta 4
used by the United Launch Alliance and
Atlas 5 developed by Lockheed Martin
here is the Russian Soyuz rocket used by
NASA and other space agencies to get
humans and cargo to the International
Space Station now here is the reused
Falcon 9 rocket obviously being able to
reuse it lowers its launch cost it's
undeniably one of the best rockets on
this list but there's still a handful
Meerut but way out here past all the
rest is the Falcon Heavy no other rocket
even comes close SpaceX has pushed the
needle far beyond what has been done and
even what is still being done Elon Musk
has even offered to share building
details for the Falcon rockets
schematics that most aerospace companies
would guard with their lives because he
says any company trying to copy what
their rockets currently are will be left
in the dust by the fast pace of their
R&D divisions SpaceX is currently in the
development of the starship what they
hope will be the rocket to carry the
first humans to Mars and with his
motivation as CEO mixed with deep
investor pockets he seems poised to do
so and SpaceX itself is deceptively
unprofitable it makes millions on every
launch makes to send satellites into or
and restock the ISS and it is one of the
best safety records of any aerospace
company the only reason it looks
unprofitable on paper is because it
turns around and invest billions into
its R&D divisions to keep advancing its
rockets obviously it's hard to predict
the future especially for a finish line
that looks to be a decade away many
companies even high-profile ones have
run out of money long before they could
achieve their ambitions but SpaceX being
privately held shields them from
investors who don't want their money
being wasted on something like advancing
the human race so for now we get to sit
back and watch beautiful endings like
this until one day we get to see them on
Mars
