so you were here a number of years ago
July in 2015 it's not that long ago I
guess two years ago and had a discussion
like this with Mike Suffredini and a lot
of things have happened since 2015
for SpaceX so can you can you talk about
how things have gone how how they
progressed how you feeling about how the
industry and SpaceX particularly
progressed sure what I think we are
entering a new era of space exploration
which is extremely exciting and it's
it's not just SpaceX but there's a
number of other companies that have
developed new approaches NASA is taking
your purchase things which is really
exciting in the way that the the
contracting is done for space station
resupply I think is a great model that
frankly should be adopted throughout
government I spoke a little bit about
this at the governor's conference and
was actually using the gnash the NASA
cargo resupply contracting process as a
really great model for government in
general you know it's where you have two
competitors fixed-price milestone based
where the hot mile sensor are primarily
Hardware oriented and then if one of the
two companies that's competing does not
reach their milestones then the
remainder of the milestones are competed
to another company and that's what
happened with cargo resupply start off
with SpaceX and Kistler kisses were made
some progress but wasn't going to get
cross the finishing line and then a
little sciences was competed for the
second slot and they did get a class the
finishing line and I both SpaceX and
Orbital while providing out that NASA
with cargo services to the space station
and having that competitive dynamic is I
think it's a very powerful function for
getting a great outcome for the NASA as
the customer and I think that's just a
great that was a great model really well
executed
and to degree that's applicable in other
areas of NASA the government I think
that's the potential for revolutionary
progress on that front so from it from a
technical standpoint the the the biggest
thing that's happened in the last couple
of years which I'm really excited about
and I think makes a difference
for access to space is the landing of
the Falcon 9 rocket booster and in the
and if you ever get a chance to go out
to the Cape Oh found a burg to see that
I'd really recommend it it's really
pretty fun and it'll be a lot of those
flights in the remainder of the year
I've got about a dozen flights still to
go this year and then after landing reef
lying that same booster with minimal
work to the booster and and we believe
we can get to the point where in the
not-too-distant future in fact probably
by by next year where the that the
balcony groups that can be read loan
within 24 hours so
and and and the key the key to that is
that all you do is inspections and no
hardware has changed not even the paint
this is very important so that that's
our aspiration for for next year
obviously while paying very close
attention to mission assurance and
reliability but we think we've got at
least a technical path to to achieving
that and then the I think we're quite
close to being able to recover the the
fairing so to keep the huge nose cone on
the front of Falcon 9 which is a five
point two meter diameter nose cone you
can fit a basically a whole sort of city
bus in there and and that just that that
fairing alone with all of its systems
and the acoustic damping and
qualification all that in separation
system that's about a five or six
million dollar piece of equipment and
the analogy I use with my team is like
guys imagine we had you know six million
dollars in a pallet of cash and that was
you know six million dollars is falling
through this guy and would we try to
catch it I say we do I say we give it a
shot
you know worst case it ends up at the
bottom of the ocean but maybe we do
catch it and then pay six million
dollars let me know when ad pallet of
cash is coming back yeah
I'd like to give it a shot you know it
might as well be a pallet of cash
because it cost 6 million dollars so and
but I think we got a decent shot of
recovering the faring by the end of the
year and possibly reef light by either
late this year or early next and that
just leaves the the upper stage of the
rocket upper stage is about 20% of the
costs of the mission so if we get
through stage and and fairing were right
around 80 percent reasonable and then I
think well I think we for a lot of
missions so we can even bring the second
stage back so we're gonna try to do that
although our primary focus will be on
the dragon over the next particular over
the next year or so dragon to spacecraft
which is what we'll wait which is the
crew crew dragon next generation dragon
spacecraft which has got all of the
ecosystems and the but it will later do
a launch aboard all the way to orbit and
and do an automated docking maneuver so
it's not it does it doesn't need to be
both with the aid of the arm it can do a
direct docking maneuver and then that
will be the once that's operational the
new method of taking both cargo and crew
to the space station so if I say what's
what's our primary focus it's making
sure we stay on track for getting
getting crew to station as we promised
NASA around middle of next year it's
gonna be real exciting I think it's
gonna be great for getting the public
fired up you know that's really been a
while since we launched astronauts from
US soil yeah we're all looking forward
to that
yeah and I just like to thank people at
NASA for giving space extra chance to to
do this and just want a word of
appreciation for the working
relationship with NASA which is great in
fact I told the governors last week that
you know
Tom my password was I love NASA but that
is actually true you know you've just
given you've given all the hackers
around the world yeah hopefully I don't
have like some little email account
somewhere say okay you know like yeah I
think I've had to change this we're
gonna cut it on very good so how you
talk a little bit at Commercial Crew
how's that going I know it's you know
flying flying humans there's more
systems involved of course the risk is
higher yeah how is that progressing um
you know it's it's been way more
difficult than cargo for sure yeah
misses as soon as sort of people into
the picture it's it's really a giant
step up in making sure things go right
you know and and for sure the the
oversight the oversight from NASA is
much tougher it was thought that it
wasn't tough with cargo but it's really
intense for crew so I come from the
right motivations but yeah it's a you
know can be a bit tough them on my guys
kind of SpaceX but but but I you know I
know where it's coming from it's the
right right motivation and and there'll
be some debates you know going into next
year about some of the detailed
technical
but I think we really want to do
everything humanly possible to make sure
it goes well and you know triple check
everything and overall I think it's
going you know really well you know
there's get it's like these little small
technical bones of tension which no
we're working through those or engineers
we're late for that exactly yeah it and
some of these things were really like
esoteric I mean unless somebody's really
in the weeds on the rocket and
spacecraft design it'll just sound like
you're talking Greek but ancient Greek
you know but yeah but there's you know I
think it's good to have these debates
and overall I'm confident that it's
gonna be a system that that NASA feels
good about and just basically feels good
about and I look forward to continuing
the partnership into next year and doing
a great job for NASA excellent thank you
and of course we're looking forward to
we're excited about it and as you
mentioned we're NASA is working hard
with you yep oh yeah and and yeah and we
were also all down in the weeds on those
yep let's see you lead down to the
little ball to the whole thing oh yeah
where's garrus garrus is here somewhere
that's ghosts great to first if you
can't have a if you can't have a dry
lube bolt pitch discussion with yours
you know it's not a good day just many
sort of in Louie's technical discussions
I actually love I love talking
terrorists with my favorite people in
the world actually
mine too but but he's my boss hey let's
see so you talked we talked a little bit
about Commercial Crew we have cargo
supply resupply one at which you have
the dragon which of course dragon one
which is birthed and in fact you've done
a reef light recently with thanks for
bringing it up
you know because that's kind of
important and again thanks for the
massive support on that god we really
should you know we should have made a
slightly bigger deal out of it because
it was the first reflow and spacecraft
since the shuttle and we kind of forgot
to make you know let people know - I
mean I guess it was there in the details
but we forgot to you know with I don't
think the public even realizes that it's
the first reef light of a spacecraft of
an overall spacecraft since the shuttle
which I've formed very well - very good
a clean mission yes solid I mean that
now that was a case where it's in full
disclosure say that it costs us almost
as much - if I probably about as much
maybe more - reef we're not negotiating
contract you know I know I know I just I
just been totally honest here
the SpaceX internal accounting said that
it costs us almost as much as building
it dragon one from scratch I suspect our
internal accounting was probably being
wasn't counting good and things there
were some circumstances unusual about
this one right this one versions and
things like that so yeah the amount of
rework on this beside a lot of rework
yeah but the next one we think there's a
decent shot of being maybe sort of 50%
the cost of a new one and keep going my
contract negotiated gates myself yes and
but yeah no I mean we would have opted
for the you know a best possible deal
deal for NASA and it's always to have to
get that top-line budget to increase
hope it is
and I think so much good B could be
accomplished if the NASA top-line budget
was increased that people have no idea
so talk a little best we talked about
CRS one and and birthing in CRS - yeah
are we talk about Commercial Crew CRS -
the dragon is going to its cargo dragon
cred it's it's a similar Adam old line
is it's very dragon yeah but it's gonna
dock and talk about the then we'll have
good commonality between synergism and
things so the I mean the only thing
cargo dragon won't have is the launch
escape system all it'll still have the
logic associated with separating from
the vehicle so I think most likely even
even cargo dragon - would be able to
supply survive booster anomaly but like
I wouldn't normally the the we don't
like this yeah I guess I like the the it
one of the Lord it'll everything else on
the dragon crew dragon - has except the
the thrusters but I think in most cases
actually it would still be able to
survive reentry and and if the cargo
safe but but having a commonality is
great yeah yeah I mean going forward it
seems like you know docking itself and
if you know even beyond testing of
systems evolutions and things that might
be beneficial to test on on the cargo
version yeah absolutely and I know
you've already done some things on on
CRS one to prepare for CRS - and the
testing some TPS repair capability and
things like that
exactly actually I really you know just
like to you know express some
appreciation for the whole CRS team
because they've really allowed us to
update the rocket and you know add quit
crazy things like landing legs and I've
been really fair I think in long as to
iterate with the booster for for the CRS
contract and then and and then as you
pointed out dragon 2 being used for both
cargo and crew allows us to iterate with
them just a slight little more risk on
the cargo version and prove it out for
this crew on board yeah it's really
helpful
excellent say let's let's talk about I
know we got a few more minutes here and
then we'll open it up to questions but
you know the theme here is for the
conferences innovation and and of course
we talked already about some innovations
in the launch business but what do you
think needs to be where are the areas
are the thrusts for innovation that we
really need both you know not not
excluding the launch but but also
looking at low-earth orbit what are in
low-earth orbit where do we where do you
think we as a as a you know space
industry need to go and look for our
innovation yeah
well you know I I think I feel even I
think maybe people do the really the key
to opening up space space was orbit you
know Elliot Leo and beyond is rapid and
complete reusability or near complete
reusability
like we have add aircraft or cars or
NOAA say for transport that's it's super
hard with space because this is you know
develop on a planet with pretty high
gravity so so be pretty easy to learn
Mars or something like that but but
Earth's gravity is really pretty pretty
high and we're gonna thick atmosphere
and so reusability is tough and you're
going through you know high sort of you
had operating vacuum
hypersonic supersonic transonic subsonic
that's just a lot of regimes for any
sort of flying object to go through
but breweries ability I think is
absolutely fundamental to right through
in access to overt and beyond Leo and
Leo and beyond anything that can be done
and in that direction I think is good
mm-hmm
truly change the economics of
transportation to low-earth orbit right
really fundamental you get quick
reusability the economic equation it
becomes easier to get to low-earth orbit
and do more things yeah yeah I mean it's
kind of like there are just any mode of
transport it's like an ER before there
was a Union Pacific going across the
u.s. to California and there's like
hardly any people in California people
thought holding the Union Pacific was
just crazy because you got like nobody
there so why are we pulling a railroad
to nowhere
now you know California's most populous
state in the country so people stopped
in Texas along the way yeah yeah the
suburb I the way I left Texas you know
we do a huge part of our R&D in Texas in
Central Texas love people don't know
about that near Waco we don't so central
Central Texas we do you don't boast a
chica down and the south there that's
right yeah yeah exactly so a lot of
activity throughout Texas we're building
yeah third launch site in South Texas
near Brownsville
I think that'll that'll give us good you
know contingency capability if there's a
hurricane coming through the Cape and we
still need to get the station we could
you know launch out of South Texas and
that'll ensure continuity of service and
yeah I really spend a lot of time Texas
yeah it's great
all right traffic's not as bad as in
Southern California oh man Treach so
that's the biggest issue with suncast
more traffic health I mean it's like
it's like which level of hell are you in
if you're in hell yeah Washington's
trying to catch up I mean this is I mean
they were digging a tunnel and I feared
about that yeah yeah so it's like and
the tunnel starts right across from
SpaceX HQ so if you ever out you want to
see our tunnel as long as you close it
in after it yeah we're digging the
tunnel and it's kind of like a sort of
it's like a look actually oddly enough
it's like a little low stress activity
because like everyone expects it to fail
and I mean the sort of
groan worthy joke that I make about
tunnels is that they have low
expectations listen nowhere to go but
down
yes I keep going you involved in space
you involved in tunnels you kind of
covered yeah they used to call me
interact guy when I was in started open
space and this eccentric guy I was Ling
space
he's probably gonna fail it's another
stuff saying Internet guy I think that's
because I transport guy
so talk speaking of transports you know
so today ISS is up there and really the
conference is focused a lot on on some
of the research and developments going
on there but and commercialization too
by the way but what and
commercialization at least NASA
strategies commercialization will be
fostered on ISS and then it's a point in
the future is a go away and and
we expect we hope for a vibrant low
Earth orbit economy at that point in
time that's cool and I'm kind of curious
what what you see in terms of SpaceX and
your transportation relative to that of
that economy what's next for Commercial
Crew after after ISS sure well I don't
think the public realizes how cool is s
is you know that is an awesome thing
that's up there you know like I told a
lot of people first of all some people
don't realize we have a space station
like you can't you can't be serious
like we have a gigantic space station as
huge that's really gigantic I mean it's
a pretty incredible structure that we
have orbiting over the earth and I think
just I
I'd recommend like man I better do
something to educate the public about
the awesomeness of the space station
because this is pretty amazing and and
big like people just lose sight of like
they think oh there's like a little
thing it was big that's real big and
yeah so and now it's finally getting
into sort of real operational youth and
I was great it's like an amazing
technological achievement so but then
yeah I I think the the in terms of low
Earth orbit stuff on the commercial side
I think there's a lot of opportunities
in there kind of a global internet
capability so providing internet so posh
the world that either don't have it or
where it's very expensive and not very
good and like that the space is really
good for providing Internet activity for
sparsely populated or low populated
regions so so it's not really a threat
to telcos actually going to take I think
telcos life is easier because a lot of
customers that are very hard to serve
where like you're digging a fiber cable
for two miles they'll never pay off the
investment to you know to get to one
house to everything but but for space
you can really so
so those customers at so Eddie
economically sensible rates
there's observation
you're getting better understanding of
crops and climate and natural is sort of
not any or any natural disaster you know
information and no but I think the if
you want to get the public real fired up
I think we got a we gotta have a base on
the moon you know like every pretty cool
and then going beyond that getting
people to Mars yeah certainly sitting
further we've ever sent them before I
think yeah captivating for the people so
yeah it's nice captivating for me I know
that yeah exactly
so yeah just you know having some inner
presence on another heavenly body to be
the kind of main base and then the you
know getting getting people to to Mars
and beyond and you know sort of the
context that that's the continuance of
the dream of Apollo that like people are
really looking for excellent you know
this might be a good time to to go ahead
and open it up for a few questions from
the audience
weird where the where there on the side
I think microphones on the side I can't
tell if people are other lights are so
bright it's hard to tell I know if this
is a risk asking people to ask questions
but any any questions looks like there's
a few people signed up lined up over
here so the head hi you Don over here
from the UK pleasure to ask a question
to you my question is how are you
managing the risks associated with the
Falcon Heavy and particularly the
recently announced private launch around
the moon thank you for your time
sure so the but first of all I should
say Falcon heavy
that requires the simultaneous ignition
of 27 / class engines this is like you
know a lot that could go wrong there and
I encourage people to come down to the
Cape and see the first developing heavy
mission it's guaranteed to be exciting
but it but it's one of those things it's
really difficult to test on the ground I
mean we can fire the engines in the
ground but and we try to simulate the
the diamond at the dynamics of having 27
instead of 920 ins and the you know the
airflow as it goes through transonic
it's like it's gonna see heavy transonic
buffett then it max Q warehouse behave
on a max Q there's a lot of risk
associated with Falcon have a real good
chance that that vehicle does not make
it to a but when I make sure set
expectations accordingly I hope I hope
it makes it pass you know far enough
away from the pad that it does not
course pad damage I would consider even
that of 1/3 honest
and yeah very excite major pucker factor
really yeah that's like another way to
describe it yeah that Wendell that
dwindles the amount of people who want
to ride on that the first time yeah well
people just Waller can't there's still
people say and disclosure here man full
disclosure I you know I think Falcon
Heavy is gonna be a great vehicle just
just like so much that's really
impossible to test on the ground and
we'll do our best and it actually ended
up being way way harder do Falcon Heavy
than we thought because at first it
sounds real easy you just stick to first
stages on it strap-on boosters yeah how
hard can that be
but then everything changes all the
loads change aerodynamics totally change
you've tripled the vibration and
acoustics so if you sort of break the
the qual levels on so much of the
hardware the amount of load you're
putting through that center chorus is
crazy cuz you got two super powerful
boosters also shoving that Center core
and it's like so we had to redesign the
whole center core airframe it's not like
the Falcon iink is good take so much
look then you got separation systems and
yeah it just ended up being really way
way more difficult than we originally
thought we were pretty naive about that
but I'd better the nice thing is it's
it's a yeah we're on before he optimized
it's about two and a half times the
payload capability of a falcon 9 so you
know it's well over a hundred thousand
pounds to Tullio payload capability yeah
fifty tons even get up to a little
higher than that if you know it's
optimized and
and the nice thing is that doesn't have
the throat capability to toss a dragon
to in a loop around the moon and I've
been dragon to itself the heat shield is
designed with a huge amount of margin so
it's got enough margin to handle a lunar
re-entry and particularly if we do
initial velocity scrub do sort of at
least one pass to scrub blasty then
coming on the second pass yeah but no
question whoever's on the first flight
in brave yes
let's see this go over here to this side
here's a question from over here hey
Ilan Ted tegami with educational company
called magnitude IO I had the good
fortune of meeting you back in September
watching your five sons launch their own
Rockets Black Rock Desert oh yeah yeah
and since then we've actually been a had
the great fortune of sending students
payloads up to the International Space
Station and we're now working with cases
to extend that we'd like 50 million
students to get on the International
Space Station their experiments on the
space station by 2014 so my question to
you is more about the innovations in
education in your thoughts that same
year that I met you and your sons you
announced ad astra oh yeah and before
the advent of neural lace gets fully
implemented haha what are your thoughts
on the innovations in education today
thank you just education I think there's
definitely some good schools out there
but I think the some of the mistakes at
least in my opinion that I see being
made in education is that people the
teachers do not explain why kids are
being taught a subject you know just
sort of get dumped into math and like
well why are you letting with what's the
point of this this seems like some yeah
some people like maybe see I don't know
why I'm being asked to do these strange
problems but you know the why of things
is extremely important because you know
our brain has evolved to not to discard
information that it thinks is has a
relevance so then if on the one hand
youth you'll be asked to memorize or
learn say formulas but you don't not
know why this is the case then you have
this cognitive dissonance of it seems
irrelevant but I mean told to remember
it so I'll be punished so so I better
remember it but so the why of things is
very important and then being able to it
and then picking kind of a problem and
then using various educational tools to
solve that problem like using math or
physics or economics to to solve that
problem is far more engaging than
teaching the tools you know difference
between if you say well we're gonna take
apart this this engine and and see how
it works and put it back together again
and then in order to take the engine
apart we need you know wrenches and
screwdrivers and a winch and allen keys
and whatnot and and I said that and then
in the course of solving the problem of
taking the engine apart and putting it
back together
you learn about wrenches and
screwdrivers and all the tools that you
need and then now you understand the
relevance this is why the wrenches are
important I you know where's if you had
a class on wrenches why this not seem
that great you know so tying it to
solving a problem is I think very
powerful for establishing relevance and
getting kids excited about what they're
working on and then and and having the
knowledge stick yeah and to some extent
a lot you know building a CubeSat or
flying an experiment on ISS is like that
right you've got the yeah the Y or the
relevance
the curiosity in terms of building that
that device that experiment really is
cool it ties to the it gives you a
really a compound example of what what
you're learning in Y yeah exactly I
think like such things like cube SATs
exactly where because so like okay like
what is a solar panel
how does Roble dynamics work how do we
you know how to repair this thing you
know how to batteries work electronics
control systems and you you need to that
then you're like oh we want to make our
satellite work that's why we need to
understand all these disciplines so
think it's like like CubeSat student
huge stuffs are great like things like
design build fly for model airplanes or
Formula SAE we've got a design build a
kind of a race car and and I you know
raced out against other people that I
think those things are very powerful for
learning as learning tools yeah it's
very cool all right thank you see over
here another question hi my name is
Jacob and actually live near the Cape so
my question it's not much of a tech
question but more of what your
prediction is so about maybe a hundred
years after we develop sustainable
colonies on Mars do you think and of
course many other countries will also
try to get to Mars that there would be
like a conflict for the best resources
on Mars like in I guess you could say in
sort of like a interplanetary it's just
like a video game doesn't it
it's an idea Mars Attacks or the you
know I think it's a pretty open
territory on Mars so this I don't think
we're gonna be there's gonna be any kind
of scarcity there's like a lot of land
on Mars how many people they're hiding
on the backside yeah no I mean they're
you're pretty clever if there are people
on Mars man they are way cleverer than
us they're hiding well so yeah no
there's plenty of land on Mars so I mean
you know the history of human
civilization does contain a lot of war
so I don't think we would you know go to
Mars and that you know be war free
forever but but there's certainly not
gonna be a resource based a conflict due
to scarcity of resources on Mars I think
we're gonna go to the Mars is a
multinational effort - right so it's not
it's not one country go on in another
country going in and they're fighting
over Wars I think it's countries going
together and yeah so I think we're we're
more likely to be peaceful in that in
that scenario as well yeah you know I
actually advocate for I think it's fine
if countries get together to form teams
but I think it's actually probably
better if there are at least you know at
least two or three country coalition's
going going to Mars in a friendly way
and and competing to see who can make
the most progress and if you look at
like say the Olympics they'll be pretty
boring
if everyone just linked arms and cross
the fishing line at the same time
we've friendly better woods you know not
be like the opening ceremony yeah yeah
exactly so yeah I think friendly
competition is a good thing yeah very
good why I think you know NASA wants to
be part of one of those carnal
coalition's with the United States and
yeah and so we're I know we're actually
trying to build such a coalition now
let's see from over here another
question I am yota Ariel founder and CEO
of Bluefield we are deploying methane
tracking micro satellites and my
question to you I hope to learn your
thoughts on advancing remote sensing
capabilities of critical gases on earth
and on Mars thank you that's a pretty
esoteric question um remote sensing of
craig asses yeah I think that that's
something that's gonna be important Mars
has a number of trace gases that are
pretty helpful it's very helpful that
that Mars has co2 and nitrogen and argon
those are those are like really helpful
gasses to have in the atmosphere it's
mostly co2 but that little bit of
nitrogen and argon really can be pretty
helpful
yeah and of again whatever other trace
gases we can get out of there I don't
know we always say Mars has just enough
atmosphere to it's not to be really
helpful in terms of aerobraking but it
sure makes it a lot harder so it's just
enough to be to be difficult so what but
in terms of inserts you research
utilization you know get there to be
able to build to get your oxygen and
that's hopefully we'll have a super
build build hot get hydrogen main for
hydrogen on the planet so yeah and fluid
enough resources it'll we don't have to
carry everything with us well the nice
thing having if you got h2 and co2 you
can build hydrocarbons of any kind you
can sing both plastics you can build you
know short chain long-chain hydrocarbons
you know the cars basics thought for
kind of a Mars transport vehicle is a
primary methane based system because you
get to have a
kind of a smaller living the tanks are
half the size with methane so and then
yeah but sand and Mars with with a co2
atmosphere and a lot of water rice is is
grateful for that go beyond Mazda has a
lot of Merit for a hydrogen because then
you only need water but that's that's
also a current thinking on that front
so speaking of that last last year in
Guadalajara at the IAC conference you
talked about plans to go to the Mars and
and and I know you guys have been
working on that since then yep you did
so you plan at some point to talk about
that work publicly yeah thinking
probably the upcoming ISC in Adelaide
might be a good opportunity to do the
updated version of the Mosel
architecture because it's it's evolved
quite a bit since that last talk yeah I
might ask for questions to be elected of
time for that is good strategy
there was some very enthusiastic people
to the mic at the IAC last time but but
that the you know the the key thing that
better be figured out is like how do you
pay for this whole you know something to
go to Mars that's pretty super expensive
and I kind of think by kind of you know
if we downsized the the Mars vehicle you
know make it capable of doing Earth
orbit activity as well as you know Mars
activity then you know maybe we could
pay for it with by using it for over
activity that's that's one that's one of
the key elements in the new architecture
it's so similar it's similar to what was
at ISC but it's a it's it's a bit a
little bit smaller still big but it's
but but I think it's I think this one's
got a shot at being real
and a bit on it on the economic front
you know that's the trick all right
let's see I think the question probably
here
hi Jane mark I mostly one important
question in one little aside oh can you
talk a little bit about your R&D
strategy for your companies and is it
all focused on short term problem
solution or how much and in what fashion
do you allocate time and money towards
R&D spending on some of the long term
goals you're working that and then just
as a little aside for the boring company
are you looking at not only as a habit
as a transportation but potentially as a
habitat company for ton of not just
tunnels with habitats on Mars mmhmm yeah
actually so I do think like getting good
at digging tunnels could be really
helpful for Mars because like once
you've got a kind of a yeah it would be
a different optimization or for you know
Mars boring machine versus a earth
boring machine but for sure there's
gonna be need to be a lot of ice mining
on Mars and mining in general to get the
raw materials and then along the way
building underground habitats where you
know you're good good radiation
shielding and you kind of have you know
as much as you can you can build a
really an entire city underground if you
wanted to I think people still gonna
want to go to the surface
you know from time to time but you you
can build a trace amount underground
with the right boring technology on Mars
so I do think that there's some overlap
in that technology development arena and
then Rd you know I try to spend as much
on R&D as we can at my companies so we
really max out our ID I mean I spend
most of my time on engineering that's
probably 80% of my week is engineering
meetings and so
it's you know any money that we get in
revenue we put that right back into our
D and some of it is longer-term yeah you
know like for example the you know bars
vehicle we'll get some drinks some bars
communication stuff potentially with
with with NASA
and yeah but one super priority it's
like it rings my most fun thing so kind
of foul that to the max over here hi my
name is Chris Lafleur
I work for Congress for representative
John Conyers a couple days ago I read
about you talking about artificial
intelligence and the dangers of it and
how as a as a businessman you are
totally against regulation and stuff
like that but as a you know a human
being you think it's critical that we
get ahead of this issue yeah can you
please elaborate on like why what are
you saying that we don't get to see and
what as a policy maker I should be
looking to do to sort of I guess protect
us all well I think it is difficult to
appreciate just how far artificial
intelligence has advanced and how far it
is advancing because we have a double
exponential at work we have an
exponential increase in hardware
capability and we have an exponential
increase in software talent that is
going into AI so whenever you have a
double exponential it's very difficult
to predict the predictions almost always
going to be too conservative in terms of
thinking it'll be further out than it is
you know you start to see things like if
you seem like the the videos where you
can sort of really quite accurately
video simulate someone and put words in
their mouth that they never spoke use
Google is it's really pretty amazing and
then they they had something called a
generative adversarial Network I had two
of them compete with one another to make
the most convincing video so one would
generate the video and then the other
one would identify where it looked fake
and then
but that would the other one would fix
that and then they'd go back and forth
to the point where can tell which one is
the real real video which one is the
paperboy and you know sleep have been
some very public things like the defeat
of alphago or to be of go by alphago the
world's best go champion people thought
defeating go was either never or 20
years away that was Wells best go player
was defeated and now that same alphago
system can defeat the top 50 players
simultaneously with zero percent of
chance of them winning and that's one
year later so the degrees of freedom to
which artificial intelligence is able to
apply itself are really increasing I
think by 10 orders of magnitude a yeah
that's really crazy
so I think and we're talking yeah and
this is on hardware that is really not
as well suited for neural nets you know
like a GPU is maybe an automatic to
better than CPU but something but a chip
that is designed optimally for neural
nets is an order of magnitude better
than a GPU and that is there are a whole
bunch of neural net optimized chips
coming out either late this year or next
year so I think
we should you know the father all the
government is to make sure the public is
safe like to take care of public safety
issues and I think so I think the right
move is to establish some government or
agency which at first is just there to
gain insight so it's not about like
shooting from the hip and just putting
in rules before anyone knows anything
but you gotta stuff agency it's got a
gain insight once that inside is gained
then start applying rules and
regulations we have that full of the you
know for aircraft if they got that for
cars good that for you know drugs for
food and I don't think anyone wants the
FAA to go away or FTA to go away or you
know any of those regulatory agencies I
think we just meet them to make sure
people do not cut corners on AI safety
it's maybe a gate it's gonna be a real
big deal and it's gonna come on like a
like a tidal wave
alright thanks to see over here question
good afternoon my name is Anna and I'm a
film director and VR producer and I'm
currently working on a film when I
documentary film about future scenarios
for Humanity which actually brought me
to this amazing conference where I can
learn and complete my research on the
space exploration area and in the
previous three days there was a lot of
talks which is I think an extremely
beautiful phenomenon about this kind of
dual philosophy behind space exploration
and space solutions about solutions that
are coming back to earth that can
benefit humankind in very very wide area
and today we've been talking about the
commercialization of the of the space
area and it brings a lot of questions to
me about social responsibility behind
gigantic companies that would actually
probably take over how the space
industry would develop in the nearest
future so I'm very curious how you see
in long term these kind of benefits for
people or social goals for for SpaceX
and especially in the context that you
are an entrepreneur that invests in
infrastructure and transport cart
solution that would probably change the
way most of us live and the way we
communicate with each other so I'm very
very curious how you see that in terms
of long term mission long term
philosophy and what would be your advice
or maybe a kind of security signal for
other of your colleagues and for all of
us
you know I'm not sure I fully understood
the question the yeah well the answer
but yes I think mainly about the
long-term benefits from the RNG and ever
stats your companies would conduct that
could actually also not only serving
building a service that can be useful
for business or the people but also
benefit societies in a wider context and
also knowing that it will probably
interest the commercial industry in
space would probably develop very
quickly and it will grow how do you see
a social responsibility of the companies
who actually do that and where are the
limits of what can be done which should
be done the same way as you think about
for example open AI mission and area of
of AI development so can you track could
be translated into space industry
endeavors well I think there's a pretty
big social benefit or civilizational
benefit to being a multi-planet
civilization you know that dramatically
increases the probable i span of human
civilization if we are a multi-planet
species versus a single planet species
sometimes that is misinterpreted as well
can we just focus everything on earth
it's like well you know but we should
focus almost everything on earth but I
think weather should be maybe 1% or 2%
of our resources that are applied to
making life multiplanetary because
there's certain irreducibly reducible
risks for here you know for on earth
it's you know it's possible in the
future that there there's some global
war that knocks us back many levels of
technology you know suddenly if it was a
major nuclear war would and there's just
so the general decay of societies over
time we see this through history we know
look at ancient Egypt
you know they had reached peak peak
technology levels and then for reasons
that aren't obvious just declined and
you know something just having being a
multi-planet civilization having human
bases throughout the solar system
I think first watching was very exciting
and inspiring and they need to be things
that are exciting and inspiring and make
you look forward to waking up in the
morning like it's like a futures
excitement
this is underappreciated you know like
tunnels sorry absolutely and you know
but there's got to be things that make
you excited about life like you can't
just be problem-solving you know one
once or miserable problem after another
it's got to be like I'm fired up about
the future again here's why and space is
one of those things that that does that
people all around the world you know
when when Apollo 11 when they landed on
the moon I mean it was that was
something for all of humanity really was
you know if you will you know if there's
like one TV for 50 miles around people
would walk you know there's 150 miles
just to go find that one TV with to what
should happen so you know sometimes
people think well what about what about
the nations of the world like you know
what it's fire inspires them to and you
know we need things like that
we don't have an awful ooh all right
thank you sir over here
hyeyeon quick question
I heard that dragon is no longer planned
to land propulsively is that true yeah
that was a tough decision
it's dragon is capable of landing
pregnant to is capable of landing
propulsively
and it technically it still it still is
although you'd have to land it on
some pretty soft landing pad because
we've deleted the little legs that pop
out of the heat shield but it's
technically still capable of doing it
the the reason we decided not to pursue
that heavily is it would have taken a
tremendous amount of effort to qualify
that for safety particularly for crew
crew transport and then there was a time
when I thought that the Dragon approach
to landing on Mars we've got a base heat
shield and side mounted thrusters would
be the right way to land on Mars but now
I've pretty confident that it's not the
right way and that there's a there's a
far better approach and and that that's
what the next generation of SpaceX
rockets to space craft it's gonna do so
yeah so just the difficulty of safely
qualifying dragon for propulsive landing
and the fact that pro technology
evolution standpoint it it was no longer
in line with or we were confident was
the the optimal way to land on Mars
that's why we are not pursuing it it
could be something that we bring back
later but it's it doesn't seem like the
right way to apply resources right now
we're high ulong my name is Elia overby
I'm a PhD student studying genomics
we've all made of evolve together and
made a lot of technological progress on
space systems my question isn't about
the technology it's about the biology
what are the principal biological
concerns you have about human health on
long-duration missions such as a mission
to Mars and have you identified any
solutions to these problems well I say
Gardo Mars is not for the faint of heart
and is risky dangerous uncomfortable and
you might die
now do you want to go yeah you know what
a lot of people answer is gonna be hell
though and force no Muscovy hell yes
so you know you know there will be
issues I don't think it's like it's
gonna be a case of like you get it
radiated to death along the way I don't
think that's capable yeah you know the
radiation levels sort of roughly you
know in worst-case now I really kind of
about equivalent to smoking on the way
there now smoking is pretty bad but but
I think with weed with some water
shielding we can cut down on a large
percentage of the incremental radiation
and that should be enough that that the
the sort of marginal risk of cancer is
not something that is gonna be a
showstopper that's that's my best
assessment to date something learning a
lot about solar winds and you know fast
particles and or not and then one of
things I learned recently that I wasn't
didn't didn't quite understand is that
the I always thought of the particles
from the Sun the sort of solar wind is
going kind of straight up from the Sun
but they they follow the magnetic field
lines so you actually can get the
particles coming at you from the side
even though it's kind of a directional
thought of all to the Sun so you do need
some kind of some amount of protection
at least on beyond kind of four four or
five sides hey but I don't think it's
it's not a showstopper but it's is it's
definitely you know if if safety is your
top goal I wouldn't go to Mars you know
there's a there's a bunch of work going
on ISS right now to understand the risk
to the humans for long-duration yeah
certainly we're in the Van Allen belts
the radiation of our
different but and all part of it is
understanding what happens to the humans
the longer you stay so so far we've had
humans stay a little bit longer than a
year and that's it so in the history of
the species they've had someone off the
planet for a little more than a year and
we're talking three years to go to Mars
well you know I think perhaps perhaps
shorter but it's in the years it's a you
know it's so potential for for things
out there that we haven't found yet
yeah and so we'll learn more as we go
along hopefully learn more before ISS is
done yeah it's they're saying that
actually the yeah you know Mars is only
the same sort of rough quadrant of the
earth six roughly six months every two
years by same I mean sort of transfer
slightly offset because it's like a
transfer quadrant but but if you can get
the ship to and from Mars in inside that
six-month window then you get to reuse
it twice as often so there's actually a
lot of Merit to being able to get to
Mars in under three months if you can
get there quick and back or skip makes a
bigger a bigger vehicle and resupply so
anyway well the interesting problem that
will I'm sure we'll work on yeah as we
go forward a lot of Earth orbit
refueling over yeah it's not really
closely oxygen but it repellent we know
they look good for word for propellant
for fuel plus oxygen prop I guess proper
pablote will have to do it will have to
invent a new word right that's it okay a
question over here
Dmitry star the performs in Los Angeles
first thank you very much for digging
those tunnels they will be really handy
during Olympics my question is like with
Tesla cars will we see you writing the
crew module to Isis and back thank you
I would like to at some point I would
like to yeah I think giving things work
out you know I know I'd like to yeah
maybe three three or four years
something yeah great
alright we'll put you on the manifest
okay next question over here
hello I'm Ana Sofia Bulgaria and I have
kind of a follow-up on the biology
question from before it is one thing to
say obviously it's not going to be a
safe experience to go to Mars but there
are some technologies essential
especially if we're looking to putting
humans there permanently that are going
to be have that are going to have to be
developed with biological capabilities
speaking of like flight suits habitats
eventual artificial biospheres for
people to live in
do you see your company playing a part
in the development of those technologies
do you see biology having a place in
SpaceX's work or will that be outsourced
to other unrelated companies and before
you answer you should know that
annasophia over here one genes and space
competition and flew on a spacex dragon
and it's a via was that that spacex 10
when was that
SpaceX eight so as though
and a very smart young lady I think in
fact I think she's smarter me in high
school then then that I am now so anyway
so good luck with your answer sure
biology UPS has a significant role to
play in any kind of permanent Mars base
or city I mean if you know we're trying
to make sure we can get people there
reliably at a cost they can afford and
get cargo there at the right cost number
you know because the business there's
kind of a threshold cost per ticket or
cost per ton to the surface of Mars
below which a self-sustaining city can
develop and above which it cannot that
that sort of critical economic in touch
technical threshold is is what we're
focused on at SpaceX and that we will
probably have to do a pivotal work on
Alec Depot basically propellant plant on
Mars but then aren't our intent is to
you know we don't want to get in the way
of what others are doing like we want to
make sure that let's say if somebody
makes an investment or wants to do
something on Mars create a you know a
business or do some scientific endeavor
that SpaceX does not compete with that
you know because they need to feel like
okay they're we're not going to just go
in and compete with them arbitrarily we
want to make sure that they feel is
gonna be a fruitful environment to be
that you know to go there and and and
and do something special so our focus is
gonna be a transport kind of the
fundamental utilities survivability and
we know and we'll do more if we need to
do more but we want to make sure that
that lots people can go and do all sorts
things on Mars or the moon and I feel
like SpaceX is gonna do anything but try
to help them we don't we don't interfere
or compete you know they got to feel
like the opportunities there
next question over here hi Ellen
my name is Tracey and I'm not here for
any reason related to my career or to my
area of study
I'm actually here as a very cool and
only slightly overbearing mother to my
ten-year-old daughter Harper and a
sister to my 14 year old brother Ben who
are both in the audience today and who
think of you the way that I guess I
thought of Madonna at the same age
I praise their in the spirit of that I
wanted to get your advice see that's two
kids who are very interested in space
and engineering and entrepreneurism
thank you I'm sorry the space
engineering and entrepreneurialism
what's your advice oh right
yeah well you know there's a lot of
technical problems to solve so I guess
we sort of you know started studying
kind of engineering and physics and
Biosciences and that kind of thing would
be the way to go yeah
a lot can be a lot of problems to solve
to to make a city work on Mars we were
thinking of just as a sort of a semi
joke putting a JavaScript on our website
for urban planner in brackets Mars but
you know that's gonna be just reminder
problem solve there'll be there's a lot
of building building and problem solving
so those like the right you know skills
to work on if someone's interested in
going beyond Earth or you know space in
general thank you we're glad you're glad
you're here let your kids are here to
there they're the future for all of us
so thanks for coming see over here hi my
name is Gerard VA NASA Johnson Space
Center and my question is in your quest
to colonize Mars do you foresee
utilizing expandable spacecraft modules
as a stepping stone or even a final
final utilization well I think there's
definitely gonna be inflatable things on
our Mars itself you know in the journey
there there might be some amount of play
doable but um we're not currently
baselining that on Amma's itself I think
there'd be quite a lot
yeah okay thank you inflatable and and
perhaps just building it with the
materials it's yeah exactly
local materials the key you don't have
to carry it with you yeah you got to get
that tell the boring machine there
though it's gonna be as well right now
the earth ones are really heavy like
really heavy
all right well they're not built by
aerospace engineers there you're not
worried about wait for it tunneling
machine you're like wait actually one
one that's nice and heavy but Mars one
you'd have to redesign it to be super
light that's a tricky one and I'm just
taking account the different conditions
on Mars and everything yeah I think the
you know the the Curiosity rover and the
tires being chewed up by the the
sharpness of the just of the dirt of the
gravel there it's a very very foreign
environment to us and even in very
subtle way so yeah let's see you next
question over here hi Ellen my name is
profiler Chandra I'm a regenerative
medicine scientist from Wake Forest
University my question is regarding your
company near a link that makes a brain
machine interfaces so what do you think
this technology how is it useful for
humans when they are you know going to
low-earth orbits or even deep space
explorations and do you have any plans
in that direction well the the reason
for the reason I want to create neural
link was primarily as an offset to the
existential risk associated with
artificial intelligence I think we will
hear intelligence will be not I mean
will not be able to beat AI so then you
know the saying goes we can't beat em
join em kind of thing so I think having
some you know some basic not equate up
to link you know human will on mass to
the outcome of AI having AI be an
extension of individual human well
that's really the point of neural link
now along the way
I think there'll be a lot of good that's
in addressing any brain damage that's
you know as a result of a stroke or
lesion or something congenital or just
loss of memory when you get old that
kind of thing
and you know they'll be able to happen
well before it it becomes a sort of you
know brain AI some buy out situation so
if we play it you'll see it coming
it'll be it went or what happened all of
a sudden Betty I do you think it
increases the long-term relevance of
human exploration and and yeah I think I
think it's for me it increased my
motivation long term that that it
doesn't just need to be down by robots
you know yeah but if that answers your
question
does that answer your question oh yes
all right let's see maybe were one more
question here and we'll we'll wrap it up
on the left here hey caller from space
nation as we are building the first claw
cholesterol training program for
everyone
my question relates what you earlier
said to the in about the International
Space Station and how it's a shame that
it's not better known around the world
as probably compared for example the
shuttle program so and thinking that in
the future we need thousands and more
space pioneers so how do you see the
significance of this public engagement
and especially in the time where we have
more and more tools to do that and and
do you have specific plans on that and
how you see that affecting accelerating
or does it have and that kind of effect
for the whole humanities transition to
space and under the new space era sure
well I think just getting more more
human spaceflight is gonna automatically
engage the public I just point out that
the Space Shuttle there was a lot more
engagement when the space shuttle was
launching I think if there's a public
park sees some some path even if it's
long term where they themselves may be
able to go to orbit or beyond or just
new to the Moon or Mars I think their
interest level increases dramatically
and it may not be even that that they
want to go but they have a son or a
daughter brother friend that really
wants to do it and and and so they want
to support this you know friends and
family in that in that ambition but it
really needs to be something ultimately
that looks like it's going to be
accessible to a large number of people
and then I think we'll get a large
number of people engaged and one of the
things about engagement too I think for
the u.s. anyway will be we have it
people launched from the United States
so absolutely I can't tell you how
people around the world said oh you know
oh you guys are still flying well
absolutely never stop flying yeah we've
had people in on board ISS you know for
almost 17 years and but they don't see
the smoke in the fire right I see that
they say they knew that drone TV and
there's a shuttle going and it's got
seven people on board and they see it
and nowadays at least in the u.s. it's
half a world away so here in a week a
week from Friday we'll be launching
three people yeah but it doesn't feel
the same as if it was happening in in
our backyard and yeah in Florida that's
what so so we're looking forward to to
that happening very soon here in in the
US and we wish you the best of luck
thank you thanks very much for being
here today thanks for for joining the
conference
