Hi everyone, this is Dr. Nitin Chhoda with
Ignition Time and welcome to my channel.
In this video i'm going to go over the
FIVE possibilities
in terms of the outcome of the stimulus
negotiations. Now I have talked about a
timeline and at this point it looks like the most
reasonable timeline would be before the
end of September. Hopefully,
this doesn't go beyond that but you know
what at this point in time anything's
possible because I wouldn't take
anything off the table. But there are
five broad possibilities
about what could happen in terms of the
stimulus negotiations in the coming days
and weeks. Keep in mind the house and the
senate at the time i'm recording this video are
on recess but they could be called back
at any time to vote on something. And at
the point i'm recording this video
the the republicans in the senate are
planning on getting together and doing a
skinny bill or a targeted bill but
without any support or traction from the house
it's going to be largely a symbolic
gesture. So I want my viewers to know
that. So there are five possibilities. The
first possibility is that
a relief bill could indeed pass.
A relief bill could indeed pass, maybe
Steven Mnuchin and house
speaker Pelosi wake up,
they meet for breakfast um you know they
have a couple mimosas
and they strike a deal and
President Trump
signs it and the world is one big happy
place. So you know anything's possible i'm
just you know i'm hoping
but but basically there could be a
chance that the two sides
come to a consensus. The democrats are
definitely pressuring speaker Pelosi.
Republicans and President Trump are
pressuring the US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin
who's a lead negotiator.
Mark Meadows is standing firm but it's
quite possible that the two could strike
a deal with speaker Pelosi. Anything's
possible but this will require a bipartisan
agreement. This will require both of them
agreeing on several things.
Agreeing on the top line number which
they are far apart right now. One side's
at 1.3 trillion - the administration. The democrats are at
2.2 trillion. It requires them agreeing
on something comprehensive.
The republicans wanted a piecemeal
approach, the democrats want a much much
more comprehensive large
legislation. It requires them on agreeing
on state on local aid,
the democrats wanted $900 billion.
The republicans wanted significantly less.
It requires them to agree on funding for
schools and education and a whole bunch
of other things. It requires them to
agree on the stimulus check, it requires
them to agree on
enhanced unemployment benefits. So you
know, again the first
possibility is that a relief
bill could pass. Now keep in mind that
the senate is in recess
until the 8th of September and the
house of representatives has continued
to meet in short pro forma sessions
since passing the USPS bill. So
you know um the the house they have been
working. House speaker Pelosi and Treasury
Secretary Mnuchin and Mark Meadows have been
speaking on the phone
and basically depending on when the
house and the senate vote
the President could sign the bill as
soon as you know 4 or 5 days later.
Because remember step one
is the house and the senate both have to
vote and both have to agree on the framework
of the bill then it goes to the
President then the President signs it.
So first they need to come to an agreement
then they need to vote then the
President needs to sign. This whole
process will take
a minimum of 4 or 5 days from the
point an agreement is reached. So I want
you folks to be aware of that
the second possibility is there could be
a smaller piecemeal approach
a smaller bill or a series of smaller
bills could indeed be passed
the house tried to pass the united
states postal service legislation
which went nowhere in the senate the
senate is coming up with a skinny bill
or a targeted bill which is likely to go
nowhere in the house so i wouldn't
really
i wouldn't really expect this to happen
but again you know
senate majority leader mitch mcconnell
did say that the republican led senate
will not pass stand-alone
legislation for the postal service and
house speaker nancy pelosi has said the
house will not
accept any standalone stimulus package
so again
anything's possible but it does look
very unlikely
that a skinny stimulus package that the
republicans are planning which they call
a delivering immediate relief to
america's family schools and small
businesses act
that's a mouthful when they come up with
an abbreviation like all these guys have
been coming up heroes and heals and
cares
again it's called delivering immediate
relief to america's families schools and
small businesses act i'm not even going
to try and see if that is
some sort of an abbreviation so the
draft of this package at this moment in
time
does not include a second round of
stimulus checks but you know the bill
could restart negotiations and you never
know
so that's a second possibility a series
of small
individual pieces of piecemeal
legislations instead of
one large bill now let's move on to the
third possibility which is
that the president could initiate more
executive orders so the president could
initiate more executive orders just like
he did
with the suggestion on eviction with the
lost wages assistance program
which has been quite quite a challenge
for states to implement
only a small number of states at this
time are paying out less than 10 at the
point at the time i'm recording this
video a majority of states are still
working their way through the creation
of the program including alaska that
said that they could take as long as two
months so
it's it's it's unlikely that the
president
will be able to create effective
executive orders i mean he could do an
executive order which is a political
talking point
which is a public relations success i
would imagine but
it doesn't seem likely to me that
executive orders will be useful but
but the white house chief of staff mark
meadows did say
that the president would be introducing
more executive orders if
the deadlock would cont if the gridlock
would continue now possibility number
four
is that no action is taken until after
the election
now this would be gosh this would be
terrible keep in mind with 470 seats
in congress that is 35 seats and 435
house seats
are up for election in november so let
me repeat that 470 seats which is a
total of 35 senate seats not all the
senate seats
but 35 out of the senate seats and 435
house seats
are up for election in november any
change in majority in the house or the
senate
and to the presidency itself will shift
the balance of power
in terms of you know what's likely to
happen in terms of stimulus and
unemployment benefits
and basically uh you know it uh
that could that should change everything
because once the once the whole
the balance of power and the house the
senate and the presidency changes
after the november election it's quite
possible that we could see stimulus
right after that so um and and at that
point
talks may resume uh i i also think this
is highly unlikely i think it would be
terrible
if people are made to wait for that long
but in this environment
to be honest nothing surprises me
anymore and the fifth possibility is
that
absolutely nothing happens no stimulus
build no second stimulus check
no extension of federal enhanced
unemployment benefits like the 600
federal boost so just this sort of
patchwork lost wages assistance program
the 300
a week which by the way is going to run
out very quickly before you know it it's
going to be gone
because it's a very limited amount of
money it was never really meant to be a
replacement
of the six hundred dollars a week it's
just three hundred dollars a week for a
few weeks so if you really think about
it
three hundred dollars a week for let's
just say five weeks if you happen to get
it
is fifteen hundred dollars spread out
over several weeks
with additional requirements like having
to certify
like having work search requirements uh
you you know the
the loss of your employment needs to be
through no fault of your own
needs to be related to the pandemic i
mean it's a whole bunch of
things that were not really a part of
the 600 week booster so
the lost wages assistance program when
you really look at it
uh is a maximum of fifteen hundred
dollars extra
uh over several weeks which you may or
may not get
um depending on how you certified
depending on your qualifications which a
lot of people won't get
if they don't get at least 100 or more
in benefits
which a lot of states aren't even yet
paying out and a lot of states could
take
weeks to pay out and by that time the
money is already gone so
the fifth possibility is that there is
no stimulus package
and this would really hurt those who
need it the most
and i really don't want that to happen
and neither do my viewers or subscribers
but this video was about the five
likely outcomes the five likely outcomes
of the state of stimulus negotiations
based on everything that is happening
today thank you so much for watching
everyone
i appreciate you my name is dr nitin
choda me and my team work
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