
English: 
Does using the Fibonacci Series for estimating
improve the accuracy of those estimates? That's
the question we're gonna be looking at today
and stick around to the end to get your hands
on this free agile estimating cheat sheet.
My name is Gary Straughan. Welcome to Development
That Pays, the channel dedicated to profitable
software development. If we're meeting for
the first time please consider subscribing
and hit that bell icon so that you don't miss
a thing. If you've been following along with
this series on agile estimating you'll have
got the message by now that estimating is
hard, but some estimates re much easier then
others. We've talked previously about estimates
of absolute size versus estimates off relative
size.
How heavy is this is a hard question. Which

Chinese: 
使用費式數列進行估算是否會提高估算的準確度？
Subtitle Contributor: Roger Chou, CSP, CLP
中文字幕貢獻：周龍鴻, CSP, CLP
這是我們今天要探討的問題，請觀看到尾聲，
以獲得免費的敏捷估算備忘單。
我是 Gary Straughan。
歡迎來到 Development That Pays，
這個頻道致力於可獲利的軟體開發。
如果我們是第一次見面，請打開訂閱，
並點擊小鈴鐺圖示，這樣你就不會錯過任何影片。
如果你一直有追蹤此系列的敏捷估算影片，
你現在應該已經得到了這個資訊 -- 估算是困難的，
但有些估算比其他的估算要容易許多。
我們先前已經探討過絕對尺寸估算與
相對尺寸估算的比較。
一個東西到底有多重，是一個很難的問題。
但這當中哪一個較重，是一個較簡單的問題。

Chinese: 
為什麼它是簡單的問題？
好吧，這是因為你認為
這兩者的重量有很大的差異。
當我說差異時，
是絕對差異還是相對差異？
這兩個硬幣，哪一個較重？
這兩座橋，哪一座較重？
我希望這有回答到此問題。
重要的不是絕對差異；而是相對差異。
等等，這一集不是應該談談費式數列嗎？
我想是時候把它拉進來了。
讓我們從零開始說明它。
前兩個數字是 0, 1, 1。
為了得到第三個數字，我們把前兩個加起來。
0 加 1 等於 1。
我們繼續對這些數字進行加法。
1 加 1 等於 2。
1 加 2 等於 3。
2 加 3 等於 5，依此類推。
8

English: 
of these is heavier is an easy question. Why
is it an easy question? Well, it's because
there's a large difference you assume in the
weight of these two. When I say difference
is that the absolute difference or the relative
difference?
Which of these two coins is heavier? Which
of these two bridges is heavier? I hope that
answers the question. It's not the absolute
difference that's important, it's the relative
difference.
Hold on a second wasn't this supposed to be
an episode on the Fibonacci Series. I think
it's time we rolled it in. Actually, let's
build it from scratch. The first two numbers
are zero, one, one. To get the third we add
the first two together. Zero plus one is one.
We carry on adding pairs of numbers. One plus
one gives us two. One plus two gives us three.
Two plus three gives us five and so on. Eight.

English: 
Thirteen, twenty-one, thirty-four, fifty-five,
eighty-nine. What's interesting in this series
is the gaps between the numbers. Not the absolute
gaps the relative gaps. The relative gap between
these two is, oh, that's infinite. Yeah. That
ones a little bit large. Let's move on. The
relative gap between these two is 100%. Okay.
50%. 66.6 recurring percent. 60%. 62.5%. 61
and a bit percent. Almost 62%. 61.8. 61.8.
After some craziness at the beginning of the

Chinese: 
13
21
34
55
89
在這串數字中，有趣的是數字之間的差距。
不是絕對差距，而是相對差距。
這兩個數字之間的相對差距是，
喔，是無限大。
是的。那有點太大。
讓我們繼續下去。
這兩個的相對差距是 100%。
好的。 50% 、
66.66% 循環小數、
60%、
62.5%、
百分之 61 點多、
幾乎接近 62%、
61.8%、
61.8% ...

Chinese: 
在數列開始時的一陣高低起伏之後，
數列成員之間的相對差距會穩定在 61% 左右。
讓我看看是否能以
更視覺化的方式向你示範。
這是前幾個。0、1、1、2、3、5、
噢 … ，我們現在空間不夠了。
我要把它縮小到差不多 60%。
這是 8。
再次縮小 60%， 這是 13。
再縮小，21。
再縮小一次，34。
再縮小，55。
最後再縮小一次，89。
我希望你能看出，雖然這些長條圖會隨著我們
更進一步的縮小而變得越來越窄，

English: 
series the relative gap between he member
of the series settles down to around 61 and
a bit percent. Let me see if I can demonstrate
that to you a little more visually. Here are
the first few. Zero, one, one, two, three,
five, ah, yeah now we're up to space. I'm
going to zoom out around about 60%. There's
the eight. Zoom out another 60% there's the
13. Zoom out again, 21. Zoom out once more,
34. Zoom out again, 55. Zoom out one last
time, 89.
I hope you can see that although the bars
are getting skinnier as we zoom further and
further out the relative size between this

English: 
one and this one stays pretty well constant.
The reason that this scale works so well for
estimating is that it encourages us to stay
in the realm of easy estimates. It encourages
us to stay with relative estimates. To say
in slightly different terms if we are estimating
two things and their sizes, their relative
sizes are not sufficiently different then
we consider that they both have the same size,
which brings us right back to the question
that we started with today. Does the Fibonacci
Series lead to more accurate estimates?
I think the answer has to be no. If anything
what it does is protect us from attempting
to make accurate estimates. It keeps us in
a realm of making rough or broad estimates.
I'm curious, do you use the Fibonacci Series
for your estimates. I'd love to know. Let

Chinese: 
但是這個和這個之間的
相對尺寸保持得相當穩定。
這個比例在估算上能如此好用的原因是
它鼓勵我們保持在簡單估算的境界裡。
它鼓勵我們保持相對估算。
換句話說，如果我們要估算兩件物品及他們的大小，
當他們的相對尺寸差異不大時，
那麼我們就會認為
它們有相同的尺寸。
這讓我們回到今天開始時的問題：
「使用費式數列是否會帶來更準確的估算？」
我認為這個答案必須是否定的。
如果有的話，那就是防止我們
嘗試去做準確估算。
它讓我們留在進行粗略或廣泛估算的境界裡。
我很好奇，你是否使用費式數列進行估算？

Chinese: 
我很想知道。
請在下方的留言欄中讓我知道。
最後，有一件我在開始時就提到的備忘單 -
敏捷估算備忘單 -
你可在下方留言處找到連結。
點擊該連結，依照指示操作，那它就是你的了。
感謝你的觀看。
如果你喜歡這影集，請按個讚。
和你的人際網路分享它，然後點擊這個標誌，
以在每週三獲得全新的影集。
期待下次見到你。
再會。
Subtitle Contributor: Roger Chou, CSP, CLP
中文字幕貢獻：周龍鴻, CSP, CLP

English: 
me know in the comments below and finally
today there's the small matter of the cheat
sheet that I mentioned at the beginning. The
agile estimating cheat sheet. You'll find
a link in the comments below. Click the link,
follow the instructions and it's all yours.
Thank you very much for watching. If you enjoyed
this episode please give it a thumb sup. Share
it with your network and hi the logo right
here for a brand new episode each and every
Wednesday. Look forward to seeing you next
time. Cheers for now.
