- Yes, we are on the bed.
You could call it an
homage to old YouTube.
I call it
comfortable for my butt.
(Sabrina laughs)
Conspiracy theories.
So, as somebody who has lost many a night
tumbling down Wikipedia rabbit holes.
I love a good conspiracy theory.
It's like, "Ooh aliens!"
"Ooh! How do people make
such big triangles?"
I think that it is just
fun imagining the world
to be more interesting
than what I was taught.
But then, something weird happened.
A couple weeks ago,
I found myself in the middle
of a conspiracy theory.
And then all of the fun
was replaced with just
pure confusion.
The conspiracy itself is, like,
weird and fun and innocuous.
However, what I really
cared about is, like,
how do you get to that point?
How do you start seeing signs
that were never there to begin with?
That's what I wanna know.
And I also want to, like, disapprove
this whole conspiracy theory.
'Cause it's wack.
However, as the person in
the middle of all of this,
I can imagine, why I'd
be seen as unreliable.
So, I'm calling on a friend!
I don't know how to put
this. How do you put this?
People think that I am
part of the Illuminati.
- Well, are you?
(Sabrina laughs)
- This is just one of the comments,
but I think it really
summarizes the issue.
"I find this channel to
be highly disingenuous."
"Clearly a corporate product
masked to have the appearance
of an independently run YouTube channel."
"There's no way a single
person is that skilled
at animation, editing-"
"Everything is too professional."
Research for that topic of
animation takes decades."
"There's no way this girl is that-"
"Production company
put this video together
with you just as a host."
- So now- Now-
Now what?
- Why am I calling you, right?
- Yeah, I'm like, "How do
you want me to prove this?"
- I
am wondering
if you could explain
to me and the viewers of this video,
how could somebody see
something so mundane,
that's just, like, a
part of my life, I guess.
How can somebody see that and think, like,
there must be more?
- I'm interested. I'm fascinated.
'Cause I'm like-
I'm not only interested
in your conspiracy,
as interesting as it is.
I think conspiracies
have a- Have a knack for,
especially nowadays, to just-
Just ruin people's lives, you know?
I'm gonna solve this mystery!
♪ Scooby dooby doo ♪
- Thank you!
- [Sabrina] We don't have
the copyright on that.
- We're going to
investigate this conundrum.
- You're doubling down on it, I see.
- Hello, I'm Taha.
I'm apparently Sabrina's
only British friend.
I've been given free rein
over this part of the video.
So, welcome to my chaos.
Sabrina has asked me
to get into the mind of
a Sabrina Cruz truther
and figure out what's going on.
Okay. Hold on.
(keyboard typing)
- It needs pictures.
Let's read some conspiracy theories.
"This is a fake channel."
"A propaganda channel paid by others."
"Why the spotty uploads?"
Maybe because it's- It's just one person.
I love this one!
"Who do you work for?"
"We all know this isn't your channel."
"Who's script are you reading?"
"I think she works for the government."
Oh, this is the best one.
"Her main channel is crash
course with 10 million subs."
John and Hank Green, eat your hearts out.
Okay, so, basically people think
that Sabrina doesn't make her own videos,
that she's a presenter,
that maybe she works for the government.
How did people get here?
Let's figure it out.
(upbeat techno music)
- Okay, so, here's what I found out.
There are loads of ways to
define conspiracy theories
but they all kind of boil
down to the same thing.
It's basically the belief
that a group of people
are secretly working
together to do something bad.
But, here's the thing.
When we talk about conspiracy theories,
we aren't talking about every time
anyone has gotten together
to secretly do bad things.
So, what are people talking about
when they say conspiracy theory,
or when they talk about conspiracy
theories on the internet?
They're talking about a specific
type of conspiracy theory.
It's the type of conspiracy theory
that Sabrina is in the
middle of right now.
These conspiracy theories
seem to be unlikely by design.
Here's the really interesting
thing that I found.
These theories have pretty
distinctive features
that you can spot.
And these features make them
not only unlikely to be true,
but also difficult to argue against.
These features
are that they are speculative,
based on educated or not
so educated guess work
rather than solid evidence.
The rationale being that if
a conspiracy was successful,
then it wouldn't have left a trace.
They can become contrarian.
They form in opposition
to the obvious or official explanation.
Conspiracy theories will
dismiss this explanation,
citing, "That's what
they want you to think."
Because of this, theories
can become esoteric.
If the obvious explanation isn't true,
then a theory is based on speculation.
The conspiracy theory can run wild.
Explanations can become
increasingly detached from reality.
Theories are also amateurish.
Now, that isn't a comment on
a theorist's intelligence.
That's a comment on how
qualified these theorists are.
In most cases,
they don't have the relevant expertise
to be conclusively analyzing evidence.
Even when they do, they're
in the small minority,
and the professional consensus
doesn't agree with them.
And is it more likely that
all experts are lying,
or that most informed and qualified people
are coming to the same conclusion?
Conspiracies can also become premodern.
These conspiracies believe
that incredibly complex
events can be controlled
by a small number of
people acting in secret.
Nothing is a coincidence
or a series of uncorrelated events
that are coordinated conspiracy.
And lastly, these
conspiracies are self sealing.
What this means
is that the conspiracy is
difficult to argue against.
If a conspiracy is based on speculation,
it dismisses the obvious explanation
in favor of a more obscure one.
If it ignores expo-consensus,
and believes that a small group of people
can control complex events,
any explanation against the conspiracy
is just what they want you to think.
Now, that doesn't mean
that every time you hear
the words conspiracy theory,
you should just dismiss it.
Because we know that throughout history
there are well documented conspiracies.
I found this really interesting concept
that distinguished
between conspiracy theory
and conspiracy fact.
Essentially, when you have
a bunch of solid evidence
that supports the fact
that a conspiracy occurred,
you can consider it fact.
But, it isn't sensible to
believe conspiracy theories.
The ones that tick all of the boxes
that make them unbelievable.
And, not unbelievable in a way, like,
"Oh, that's unbelievable!"
In a way that's like,
"I don't believe you."
And, even if conspiracy
theories aren't true,
they still have a function.
Not a good function, but still a function.
So, what is it?
People believe conspiracies
that reinforce their
political or ideological bias.
Nobody is believing a conspiracy theory
that goes against what they
think the world is like.
We see patterns and theories
that reinforce our ideology,
and we're happy to get on board.
In this way, conspiracy theories
are a type of ideological propaganda.
By spreading the theory,
you also end up spreading
your own world view.
In order to believe a theory,
you have to believe that
the world is a certain way.
So, by convincing people
of your conspiracy theory,
you are also implicitly convincing them
that the world is the way
that you believe it to be.
Okay, so, in the process
of researching this video,
I ended up going down
a lot of conspiracy theory rabbit holes.
Some of them I obviously knew were untrue.
But, others, I thought
maybe they could be true.
That was kind of scary to me.
And I wanted to find out
what it was about conspiracy theories
that made them so
attractive.
And that's when I got into the psychology
of conspiracy theories.
There are 2 key psychological phenomena
that drive a natural inclination
towards conspiracy theories.
First, is pattern perception.
We're bad at recognizing randomness.
Instead, we are more
likely to see a pattern
when there is none.
And, secondly, is agency detection.
We tend to think that events occur
due to agents acting intentionally,
rather than recognizing neutral
or coincidental occurrences.
These two phenomena
are compounded by cognitive biases
that make conspiracy theories believable.
These include the proportionality bias,
which leads to thinking
that the cause of an event
has to be as big as it's consequences,
when the explanation is not
as grand as the event itself,
people can find it difficult to believe.
This means we assume
things happen on purpose,
rather than by accident.
When the conspiracy explains
how something was intentional,
believing that is was an
accident becomes difficult.
Confirmation bias means that
once we believe a conspiracy,
we tend to only pay attention
to evidence that supports our conclusion.
So, now I know why my brain
thinks they way it does,
but that doesn't
necessarily change the fact
that I still felt like
those conspiracy theories
were true.
So, now what?
Here is where it gets interesting.
One of the books that I ended
up reading for this video
was written by a professor
that I had last year at university.
So, I just asked him.
This is Quassim Cassam,
a professor of philosophy at
the University of Warwick.
His main research interest are knowledge,
perception,
intellectual vices,
and conspiracy theories.
I also owe him an essay.
So, yeah, my sort of,
like, initial question
that I didn't know how
to tackle myself was just
how do you think about
being healthily skeptical
verus unnecessarily conspiratorial?
- Right.
I think that lots of people
that believe conspiracy theories,
think that it's a good way
to express their skepticism
and lack of trust in
government and authority.
My own view is that, well,
of course it's a very good thing
to hold an establishment to account.
And it's very helpful
when journalists and whistle
blowers come up with evidence.
I mean, I have to conceive
that the sources that
I regard as trustworthy
are, of course, sources
that, to some extent,
tell me the things I want to hear.
It's very easy to get sucked
into the vortex, you know?
So the question to ask yourself, you know,
with respect to your own
favorite conspiracy theories,
is that, well, what would convince you
that your theory
is false?
Would anything convince you
that your theory is false?
You know, if the answer is that,
well, actually whatever
anybody comes up with,
you're going to stick to your guns,
you're going to continue to
say there was a conspiracy.
Well, then that's the point at which
you really need to kind of, you know,
pull yourself out, you know?
But, human beings are fallible, right?
We all make mistakes, you know,
we're all subject to biases
of various kinds and wishful thinking.
The recommendation I would
make is just be aware of that.
Be aware of these failings of people,
of human beings in general,
including ourselves.
- Hello, different angle.
Yeah, basically I was so stressed
trying to interview my
professor and sound intellectual
that I completely forgot
to record my thoughts
straight after my interview.
I just laid down and took a nap.
So, yeah, I feel like I
have a pretty good idea
of how conspiracy theories are formed,
how conspiracy theorists think about them,
and why we think about them.
I feel like I understand
what's going on in
Sabrina's comment section.
So, I guess the final thing
to do is to call Sabrina back
and tell her everything we found out.
(phone ringing)
- Hello! How's it going?
- [Sabrina] Hello!
- What's it like being
part of the government?
(Sabrina sighs)
- Are we doubling down on that?
Is that what ended up happening?
You're just now a conspiracy theorist.
- The fact is that, like, people do,
throughout history,
conspire
to
do bad things.
It's not like that's unheard of.
But, some of those things
are, like, verifiably true,
like, there's documented evidence,
there's whistle blowers.
Those can't be, like,
put in the same bucket
as a conspiracy theory
in the traditional sense.
You know, its important
to make that distinction.
And then, once you get into
sort of the world of conspiracy theories,
it's just a never ending bucket of chaos.
The thing that I discovered,
which you're going to
find very comforting.
So, if you're a hardcore
conspiracy theorist,
there's basically nothing
you can say to them
that they will take onboard,
because if you say anything against
any of the conspiracies they believe,
they'll just say, "That's
what they want you to think."
- That's great!
- Essentially, for whatever reason,
it's more comfortable for them
and the way that they
think about the world
to believe that you
are like sort of, like,
part of the Illuminati, you
know, a government mole,
than it is to just to believe
that you are a talented person.
And, like, what are you
supposed to do with that?
My lecturer,
he did talk about sort of,
like, being conspiracy curious.
He really emphasized the idea that
a wise man proportions his
beliefs to the evidence.
And, what he meant by that
was essentially, you know,
is there evidence that
I can, you know, rely on
to conclude the things
that I want to conclude.
Most people, like myself,
are just conspiracy curious,
and now that I understand
how conspiracies come about,
I can really quickly spot
when I am falling into these biases.
So, just by learning
about them, it's, like,
really opened my eye
into all of these ways
that I can be biased,
and all of these ways that I am vulnerable
to conspiracy thinking.
- Well, that's a good lesson!
- Thumbs up!
- Thanks, friend!
Oh! My phone landed on my
ankle and it hurts so bad!
That call was exactly what I expected
and exactly what I didn't want to hear.
I think what freaked me out the most
is just, like, how easy it seems to be
to fall for conspiracy theories.
And to think that our brain,
like, developed these tricks,
presumably to help us survive,
is now something we need
to actively fight against.
But, you can't fight against it too hard,
or else you become extremely skeptical
and believe in nothing.
It's just so hard!
And, maybe the easiest thing to do,
at least in my case,
in my very innocuous little
conspiracy theory case,
is
to make them
true.
Dun, dun, dun!
What could she possibly mean?
I'll explain next week.
But, either way, have a lovely day!
Please don't become a conspiracy theorist.
Take care of yourself
and your little brain.
Bye!
