Why did the GDP value drop in India?   Act of God!
When will the GDP value rise again? It also depends on the Act of God!
India’s GDP value has reduced significantly in the past few weeks [ up to -23.9].
What will happen in future?
Is COVID-19 the main cause of this GDP crash?
Many speculate the V-shaped recession and recovery of the economy. Is that V, U or L-shaped?
Let’s discuss these issues.
GDP = C + I + G + NX. What does this mean?
Beloved Tamil people. Greetings from Tamil Pokkisham.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revealed data describing the GDP growth.
we shouldn’t look upward to see the growth because our GDP had a massive downfall of  -23.9.
Only the quarter stats data were revealed. Statistics of April, May, June shows the downfall in GDP.
What is this GDP?
The final value of the goods and services produced within the country.
We will discuss it superficially to understand. When we compare the first quarter for 2019-2020
with 2020-2021, the value of goods decreased by 24% in the current year 2020..
What’s the cause of the GDP crash?
Our government says because of COVID-19.
Is this the actual case? No
If we analyze the final quarter of 2019, the GDP value stands by 3.2%.
GDP value stood at 4.7%. In the 2019 Quarter, the GDP value was 5%.
India’s GDP had a downfall from the start of 2019. Now GDP stands at -23.9%.
What are the effective measures to enhance GDP? Many articles, newspapers have discussed GDP.
The main reasons for this GDP crash are GST, Depreciation,
downfall in the world economy and of the government’s economic policy.
When we study the base of GDP, we can forecast our future and predict the impact of GDP
we need to know about the revenue of our country.
It can be categorised into 3 sectors, the first one is Agriculture and Allied sector:
The activities concerning agriculture and fishery are termed as Primary sector.
During this quarantine, Agriculture had growth up to 3% while the other main occupation and
sectors have failed miserably up to -50%!!
So we can assume that Agriculture has gained some profit during this quarantine.
But the fishing sector had an entire downfall during this pandemic.
As a whole in GDP,  the agricultural sector contributes only 17%, this remains a mere when compared to the 100% GDP.
How many people depend upon agriculture?
It is nearly 53%. So 53% of our population have agriculture as their occupation.
But the agriculture sector contributes only 17% to our GDP.
So our government should take essential steps over this concern and try to improve the
agricultural sector and Fisheries to increase our GDP.
our government needs to develop other categories and occupations to improve our GDP.
The 2nd sector is Industry: This includes Mining, Manufacturing, Gas, Electricity, Construction
and Water supply. Many people in our country depend upon the construction works.
In  the Secondary sector, there are 8 core industries or the categorization in it
They are Electricity, steel, coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery, cement and Fertilisers.
The steel and cement come under the category of construction works.
But Construction has faced a massive downfall during this quarantine which has gone down up to -50.3%.
Of pandemic, many houses and industries are not set constructed.
So our government needs to reconstruct this sector to raise our GDP value.
Does our central government have sufficient funds for this reconstruction?
This remains as a million-dollar question in the minds of people.
We will discuss these issues in the next upcoming videos.
The 3rd sector is Service: It includes IT services, real estate. The 2nd sector i.e Industry which
includes steel, natural gas, crude oil contributes about 30% to our GDP value.
Agriculture contributes 17%, Industry contributes 30% and finally, the 3rd services sector
contributes 54% to our GDP value.
This service sector can be called the backbone of our GDP value. Though the service sector
includes IT services, administration and others like real estate, our government needs to focus
upon the 1st and 2nd sectors to improve our GDP value.
Many say this as a V-shaped economic growth.what are the reasons?
We had previously discussed the 8 cores in the 2nd sector.
The Industry sector was at -38% in April month. By May month  it turned back around -22% and
finally, in  June and July, it declined around -13 and -9% respectively.
So after quarantine, these 8 core industries would reform and help to increase GDP value.
When the lockdown ends, more than 20 crore people could be unemployed and nearly 2 crore
people could be affected by this issue. Unemployed people will suffer after this quarantine.
GDP depends upon the number of materials and goods the people purchase from different sources.
GDP = C + I + G + NX. ‘C’ refers to the consumers and the number of goods purchased.
According to this, our country’s GDP will rise or decline.
‘I’ refers to the Investment of foreign raw materials or goods by other countries in our nation.
‘G’ refers to the amount spent in different ways for the people by the Government.
‘N’ and ‘X’ refers to Import and Export. The GDP of India might get affected because India
imports many goods and services but exports a few goods to other countries.
So our government must increase the export and reduce the import from other countries.
This could help improve our GDP value.
GDP is the combination of consumer, investment, government and trading [ Import and Export].
The first category i.e Consumer might not be able to improve our GDP value due to COVID-19.
Second is Investment, If our government takes the necessary steps to improve foreign investment ,it will help our GDP value.
The third one is the Government. The amount spent for the people and the country.
For example, if our government gets a big sum of loan from the world bank they have to spend that
on improving our country’s resources like building Industries, dams, roads etc..
They can also help children in rural areas to get proper education etc..
Construction of buildings and industries might provide job opportunities to thousands of people.
This ensures that our GDP will gain rapid growth.
Finally, our government must focus on export and less on import. Then Our country’s GDP will improve.
When will these changes occur?
The reason is private consumption. Amount spent per person for his daily needs and the
investment of companies in our country would constitute nearly 88% of our GDP.
Now 88% is completely affected. To improve the GDP
, our government must take the necessary plans and ideas to improve these fields.
To initiate these concepts and ideas our government should support the people and not the IT
companies and other establishments.
Our Government should initiate plans to improve the standard of living.
.By Providing poor people with a loan with less interest would not be effective.
since the lower-middle-class people and poor inhabitants could not afford to pay.
So our government should help the needy people with useful plans to improve our country’s GDP value.
The higher class or rich people should not be profited by our government.
.Even in this pandemic rich people remain rich and the poor people stay poor.
We believe that our central government will take the proper steps to enhance our GDP value and the lives of people
If  our government or the ruling party says it is the Act of God for all these issues then definitely
their fate of regaining the position will also be an Act of God.
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