JUDY WOODRUFF: The general election season
is officially in full swing, and both presidential
campaigns are mapping their path to November.
But shifting demographics and a more diverse
electorate have changed the voting picture
in many ways since 2016.
To help walk us through some of these changes,
I'm joined by NPR's senior political editor
and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro.
Domenico, welcome back to the "NewsHour."
It's very good to see you.
So, let's start by talking about the voters.
It all hinges on them, the people who make
up the electorate. Tell us how that electorate
has changed. How does it look different from
2016?
DOMENICO MONTANARO, Political Editor, NPR:
Well, I was really curious about this, because
so many people keep talking about the 2020
election as if it is the same thing as the
2016 election.
So I talked to the demographer at Brookings,
William Frey, and he walked me through some
of the big changes. The biggest one is that
white working-class voters from 2016 to 2020
have dropped four points. They went from 45
percent in 2016 to 41 percent as a share of
eligible voters, is what we're talking about.
And, meanwhile, if you look at white voters
with a college degree and Latinos, each of
those have gained two points each overall.
If you were to combine white voters with a
college degree and Latinos, two groups that
vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and pit them
against white voters without a college degree,
who vote overwhelmingly for President Trump,
you see that the gap has almost completely
vanished from 2016, when whites voters without
a college degree had a nine-point advantage
over white voters with a college degree and
Latino.
So, really, we're seeing a big change here.
And President Trump's base is really shrinking.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So interesting.
So, let's zero in on the states that are most
competitive, the states where the candidates
are focusing most of their attention. What
are the issues on the ground? What does it
look like?
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well, if you look at our
battleground map, there are about 16 states
that are really in the competitive category.
And when we say that, we talk about states
that lean toward President Trump, toss-up
states, and states that lean toward Joe Biden.
So, you can see here, within those states,
the trend also continues.
When you look at white voters without a college
degree, in 14 of those 16 competitive states,
you see whites without a degree on the decline.
Conversely, you see Latinos on the rise in
12 of those 16 states. So, those demographics
making some big changes, big shifts.
And it's part of why you see, in a place like
Wisconsin, for example, and Arizona, where
you have two sort of differing reasons for
the states to be competitive.
In Wisconsin, a Rust Belt state that was super
close in 2016, you had whites without a college
degree down five points, and yet whites with
-- whites with a college degree up three points.
That's the real ball game there. Latinos are
down in Wisconsin, but, if you look at Arizona,
totally different story.
You have white working-class voters, whites
without a college degree down, and Latinos
up six points. And the big difference here
as far as 2016 to 2020 and why Joe Biden is
competitive is Latinos. They now make up about
a third of the overall eligible voters in
Arizona.
But a thing to keep in mind, this is not about
who's going to vote. This is just who's eligible
to vote. And, as you can see, with 31 percent
of Latinos in Arizona being eligible to vote,
that's a big difference from 2016, when only
-- they only made up 15 percent of the electorate.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, one voting bloc, Domenico,
that's getting a lot of attention this year,
suburban voters, especially suburban women.
We know President Trump won suburban voters
in 2016. But the midterms saw a change in
the suburbs. What does it look like now?
DOMENICO MONTANARO: There's been a huge shift.
In 2016, as you mentioned, President Trump
won the suburban -- won suburban voters narrowly,
47 to 45, when you look at the Pew Center's
validated voters survey. Compare that to 2020.
When you look at our poll, the "PBS NewsHour"/NPR/Marist
poll, you have Joe Biden with a 61-36 advantage
over President Trump in the suburbs.
If those numbers hold, it makes it very difficult
for the president to win reelection. And campaign
managers who we talk to, Republicans, up and
down in these competitive House races, why
would these states -- these House races continue
to be competitive, when these are Republican-leaning
suburban districts? And that's why, because
President Trump is a drag at the top of the
ticket for them.
At the same time, the group that he can try
to get out is those white voters without a
college degree. They only turned out a 58
percent rate in 2016. There's room for them
to grow, because that's only about on par
and even down from some past presidential
elections.
JUDY WOODRUFF: A lot of wild cards, but some
really important information looking hard
at the electorate.
Domenico Montanaro of NPR, thank you so much.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: You're so welcome. Thanks
for having me.
