 
Scourge Book II:

Belief Orientations behind the Great Recession

Newton Fortuin

Copyright ©Newton Fortuin 2008, 1012

Published at Smashwords

Previously

Mammon II: Belief Orientations behind the Great Recession

Scourge

Book I

The Demise of Critical Thinking in the Age of "The Secret"

Book II

Belief Orientations behind the Great Recession

Book III

Thriving in the Age of Austerity

These books are available in most eBook reader formats

at

Smashwords.com

Please Note

This is a continuation of the previous book which provides the necessary context for this instalment.
Forward

With the exception of Conservative Religion and the Economic Crisis, Freedom and Responsibility and Contemplations on the Economy, all writing in the main text was written before 15 August 2008.

If you follow the argument in the book, you will note that similar new age prosperity views proliferated in the 1920's, and that an underlying unquestioning faith in prosperity is what ultimately derailed the economic system at the time. The issue again is not that of The Secret per se, but that there is a ubiquitous unquestioning belief in prosperity in the US at this time, but also in South Africa where I live, but it appears, globally as well.

Although these events have now transpired, it is important to take note of the underlying argument which predicted them, as well as what the consequences may be if it is not heeded. In this regard the events were predicted not purely from an economic perspective, but based on what I perceived as the prevalence of a greater Consumerist Psychosis driving the underlying attitudes which resulted in the financial calamity, and which The Secret in particular, is emblematic of. In this regard The Secret is symptomatic of the greater mindset that had led to the economic crisis, but moreover, the book discusses a philosophy which I believe can aid one in one's personal recovery from the psychological and existential effects of the continuing downturn.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

SPIRITUAL CONSUMERISM

THE UNCONSCIOUS RELIGION

THE LORD OF MIND

SHACKLING IMAGERY

VOLUNTARY ENSLAVEMENT

CONSUMERIST NIRVANA

CONSCIOUS MALICE

THE WRITING ON THE WALL

NEO TYRANNY

DESCENT TO INANITY

TROUBLED WATERS

SOBER REFLECTIONS

PARADISE FORECLOSED

THE FINAL STRAW

ON A KNIFE'S EDGE

INTO THE ABYSS

OMINOUS PARALLEL

THE GOD OF MAMMON

THE DAWN OF DOOM

VANQUISHED TRUTH

DECLINE OF REASON

SUFFERING WITH GRACE

CONSERVATIVE RELIGION AND THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

RELIGIOUS IDENTITY AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR

UNCERTAINTY AVOIDANCE AND FAITH

PROTESTANTISM AND SOCIAL JUSTICE

Orthodoxy and Autocrats

THE PRIMACY OF WORK

THE CARDINAL TRUTH

FREEDOM AND RESPONSIBILITY

SHORT-TERM THINKING IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

GOVERNMENT IS THE ENEMY?

BROKEN DREAM

FORGING A NEW FUTURE

CONCLUSION

CONTEMPLATIONS ON THE ECONOMY

ADDENDUM

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE ROLE OF AMERICA

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE ROLE OF CHINA

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: SOUTH AFRICA'S RESPONSE

COPYRIGHTS ISSUES PERTAINING TO USE OF EXTRACTS

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Introduction

I started writing this work in October 2007 after watching an airing of a The Secret panel on Oprah, and then realising the extent of the consumerist psychosis alluded to in this text.

All the chapters with the exception of Chapter Four (Conservative Religion and the Economic Crisis) and Contemplations on the Economy were written before August 2008—that is before the economic crash of September 15. It was not meant to be about the economy per se, but rather about the dangers of an insatiable mentality that exists particularly in the United States, and the potential dangers it holds for society. As discussed in this instalment of Scourge, one of these being its impact on the economy.

I hence wanted to point out that the events which culminated in the dire economic circumstances we are now finding ourselves in, was a product of a psycho-spiritual malaise (i.e. greed), as much as it was economic. In this regard the makers of The Secret simply cached in on the prevailing mentality during this time and did not necessarily create it, albeit that they definitely exacerbated it by proliferating its insatiable belief system.
Chapter One

Spiritual Consumerism

The Unconscious Religion

Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from a religious conviction. – [Blaise Pascal]

This section examines how instilling a pseudo-religious ideology in the minds of one's prospects, allows for a level of suggestibility which can readily be exploited for financial, political or any other gain. In order to acquire some insight into this it's again useful to refer to the views of that informed Hitler, i.e. that of Le Bon. Specifically the following extracts are from a subchapter of The Crowd called A Religious Shape Assumed by All the Convictions of Crowds.

...

When these convictions are closely examined, whether at epochs marked by fervent religious faith, or by great political upheavals such as those of the last century, it is apparent that they always assume a peculiar form which I cannot better define than by giving it the name of a religious sentiment.

This sentiment has very simple characteristics, such as worship of a being supposed superior, fear of the power with which the being is credited, blind submission to its commands, inability to discuss its dogmas, the desire to spread them, and a tendency to consider as enemies all by whom they are not accepted. Whether such a sentiment apply to an invisible God, to a wooden or stone idol, to a hero or to a political conception, provided that it presents the preceding characteristics, its essence always remains religious. The supernatural and the miraculous are found to be present to the same extent. Crowds unconsciously accord a mysterious power to the political formula or the victorious leader that for the moment arouses their enthusiasm.

A person is not religious solely when he worships a divinity, but when he puts all the resources of his mind, the complete submission of his will, and the whole-souled ardor of fanaticism at the service of a cause or an individual who becomes the goal and guide of his thoughts and actions.

Intolerance and fanaticism are the necessary accompaniments of the religious sentiment. They are inevitably displayed by those who believe themselves in the possession of The Secret of earthly or eternal happiness. These two characteristics are to be found in all men grouped together when they are inspired by a conviction of any kind.

To-day the majority of the great men who have swayed men's minds no longer have altars, but they have statues, or their portraits are in the hands of their admirers, and the cult of which they are the object is not notably different from that accorded to their predecessors. An understanding of the philosophy of history is only to be got by a thorough appreciation of this fundamental point of the psychology of crowds. The crowd demands a god before everything else.

It must not be supposed that these are the superstitions of a bygone age which reason has definitely banished. Sentiment has never been vanquished in its eternal conflict with reason. Crowds will hear no more of the words divinity and religion, in whose name they were so long enslaved; but they have never possessed so many fetishes as in the last hundred years (even more so in the following century), and the old divinities have never had so many statues and altars raised in their honor.

It is thus a very useless commonplace to assert that a religion is necessary for the masses, because all political, divine, and social creeds only take root among them on the condition of always assuming the religious shape—a shape which obviates the danger of discussion. Were it possible to induce the masses to adopt atheism, this belief would exhibit all the intolerant ardor of a religious sentiment, and in its exterior forms would soon become a cult.

The Lord of Mind

In truth that which you call freedom is the strongest of these chains, though its links glitter in the sun and dazzle your eyes. — [Kahlil Gibran]

The danger of religion is very real, primarily because a great many major wars and a great deal of inhumanity until now have been perpetrated in the name of some or other religious view. This includes atheism as had been the case in Stalinist Russia and the killing fields of the Khmer Rouge, but currently in North Korea as well.

The aforementioned dangers associated with religious thinking, ironically, was also highlighted by one of the world's major religions, Buddhism. In Buddhism this aspect is referred to as The Lord of Mind. This is one of the Three Lords of Materialism coined by Buddha to describe the controlling power of the ego.

In the seventies Tibetan Buddhist Chögyam Trungpa in his book Cutting Through Spiritual Materialism specifically referred to The Lord of Mind as Spiritual Materialism. It suggests that the ego tends to subvert spiritual concepts and 'spirituality' for its own egocentric ends.

Spiritual Materialism in this instance has to do with the individual's subversion of spirituality in their own mind. In other words it is not necessarily as a consequence of outside manipulation as is the case with spiritual con artists such as Byrne et al as discussed in Book I.

Interestingly Trungpa points out that Spiritual Materialism, as opposed to the conventional notion of materialism, is most powerful in subverting spiritual growth. He points out that it's even more spiritually and psychologically destructive than Physical Materialism. In other words, the real danger is in fooling oneself that one is 'spiritual', but that this identity is a largely self-serving one.

In the book Trungpa warns that American Spirituality in particular was largely succumbing to spiritual materialism. And in this regard he warned that fledgling groups, particular those incorporating Eastern religious notions, was in great danger of being subverted by fraudsters and con artists.

This chapter, therefore, is not strictly about Spiritual Materialism, but rather about this subversion, and how 'spirituality' can very easily be commercially exploited; hence the overriding reference to Spiritual Consumerism.

As such, spiritual consumerism is about how 'spiritual' goods are purveyed, and not necessarily about how we as individuals may psychologically attach to any particular spiritual dogma for our own egocentric or other psychological reasons.

Shackling Imagery

The mirror of Erised (Desire) shows us nothing more or less than the deepest, more desperate desire of our hearts... However, this mirror will give us neither knowledge nor truth. Men have wasted away before it, entranced by what they have seen, or been driven mad, not knowing if what it shows is real or even possible...It does not do to dwell on dreams and forget to live, remember that... — [J. K. Rawlings]

The way The Secret has formulated its action plan – that is to ask, believe and receive as per "The Secret" – for all intents and purposes is an antithesis to actually achieving one's goals. This one can conclude only when one explores its deeper more malicious intent.

To understand why it is so one must be cognizant that the ability to get people to unquestioningly believe their visions will materialize by its own accord, is a very powerful weapon in the greater armory of the mass hypnotist.

It is once again from Le Bon's ponderings that we can gain some insight into the methodology of the mass deceiver.

...

Whatever the ideas suggested to crowds they can only exercise effective influence on condition that they assume a very absolute, compromising, and simple shape. They present themselves in the guise of images, and are only accessible to the masses under this form.

Whatever strikes the imagination of crowds presents itself under the shape of a startling and very clear image, freed from all accessory information, or merely having as accompaniment a few marvelous or mysterious facts: examples in point are a great victory, a great miracle, a great crime, or a great hope (or isolated grand sounding claims about Quantum Physics). Things must be laid before the crowd as a whole, and their genesis must never be indicated (it must be overtly positive, and the potential pitfalls, the negative, must never be presented).

These imagelike ideas are not connected by any logical bond of analogy or succession, and may take each other's place like the slides of a magic-lantern which the operator withdraws from the groove in which they were placed. This explains how it is that the most contradictory ideas may be seen to be simultaneously current in crowds.

According to the chances of the moment, a crowd will come under the influence of one of the various ideas stored up in its understanding, and is capable, in consequence, of committing the most dissimilar acts. Its complete lack of the critical spirit does not allow of its perceiving these contradictions.

Such is always the case with the collective hallucination so frequent in history—hallucinations which seem to have all the recognized characteristics of authenticity, since they are phenomena observed by thousands of persons.

It is not, then, the facts in themselves that strike the popular imagination, but the way in which they take place and are brought under notice. It is necessary that by their condensation they should produce a startling image which fills and besets the mind. To know the art of impressing the imagination of crowds is to know at the same time the art of governing them.

...

Thus, as much as it is absolutely not true that visualizing an end will of itself make it happen, what is important to draw from the above is that nurturing such a belief in one's prospect, is all important if one is to mentally control them.

In other words: the ability to conjure up such illusory visions in the mind of one's prospects is all important to mentally entrapping them, and for them to unconsciously do one's bidding.

Voluntary Enslavement

Who covets more, is evermore a slave. — [Robert Herrick]

Most importantly, what must be borne in mind with regard to spiritual consumerism, is that there in truth is no 'goods' or any other meaningful value exchange taking place, but rather, as with the fable of The Emperor's New Clothes, the mere purveyance of the suggestion that something of value is being offered.

Linking this to Shackling Imagery and The Unconscious Religion, we see that powerful imagery accompanied with an unconscious belief orientation can be a very powerful cocktail used by the mass hypnotist to entice their chosen victims. The real danger with attaching a concerted consumerist agenda to 'spiritual' innuendo as is the case with The Secret, is that the consumerist visual imagery of today is unmatched and far more subliminally compelling to anything that has gone before. We are constantly bombarded by visuals suggesting stuff we cannot live without, and how we are lesser humans for not having them. Thus we have to contend with a never ending onslaught on our consciousness which we are obliged to constantly ward off for our sanity to prevail.

While this state of affairs in itself is untenable, what is apparent is that The Secret deliberately exploits this unfortunate reality by purposefully implanting consumerist mental hallucinations. We are literally persuaded to actively load our imaginations with the images of the things we want, such as Vitale's BMW Z3 Roadsters for example.

It however must be borne in mind that, evoking such overt vivid visual imagery, is part of a concerted effort to entrap those enamored by such views into a particular brand of unconscious consumerist religion. Though instead of heaven after death that is being concocted, the belief being purveyed is that one can attain one's dreams and desires merely by maintaining the illusion of it in one's head. Then, to immerse oneself in the hallucinatory feelings as if one has already attained it.

In other words the implanted suggestion is that we can attain our stuff merely by wanting it badly enough. The specific means to materialize it being is simple as immersing oneself in vivid mental images of it. And as an aside, to intend good things for others to further assist with its certain miraculous manifestation. And let's not forget, to also attend expensive seminars or form part of a new age worship group to further expedite this magical acquisition.

All along, while engaging our pleasant hallucination, the reality outside our imagination — aside from the pleasant illusion — usually having the nasty side-effect of sneaking up on us if we do not pay it the due attention it demands.

However while one is engulfed in one's fantasy, blissfully unbeknownst, one would be fully under the hypnotists binding spell.

Consumerist Nirvana

He who loves wisdom loves his own best interest and will be a success. –– [Proverbs 19:8]

To put it bluntly, The Secret is unabashed spiritual consumerism, proliferating exaggerated new age 'spiritual' paraphernalia intended for sale to those foolish enough to buy into the associated delusion.

Though, as The Secret literally amounts to the propagation of a bunch of carefully selected half-truths, its overall societal impact cannot readily be discerned. Perhaps the best way to understand its innate danger is by way of the Parable of the Sower.

This is iterated by the following quote by Andrew Paterson from a critique of Brandon Bays' The Journey titled Hijacking Natural Enlightenment. It was written in March 2005, a few months before The Secret's release.

So the whole thing comes down to authenticity. When we are living authentically, we plant the seed of natural enlightenment in the soil of our soul. When we focus on techniques and teachers, that seed is never planted, or if it has been, any shoots will quickly wither and die. It is not that teachers and techniques cannot be useful, but we must always make our own inner lives the focus of our spiritual work. Unfortunately, there are many commercially minded men and women out there who are desperate for us to focus on them and their technique so that they can sell us their workshops, retreats, books and CDs. These are the hijackers of enlightenment; and these are the individuals we must run a mile from if we want any chance to taste the true inner freedom that is our birthright.

Essentially The Secret is a regurgitation of John Kehoe's Mind Power techniques (though many other similar techniques before), but significantly less grounded and with unprecedented commercialism. In basic marketing speak the way it is packaged is as the prototypical example of "how to sell snow to an Eskimo".

Again referencing John Demartini, it is interesting that his latest workshop is called How to Make One Hell of a Profit and Still Get to Heaven. While it might sound catchy, this in my opinion flagrantly promoting his consistent consumerist agenda and he may very well have called it "How to have your cake and eat it too".

As much as Demartini professes to be a spiritualist, his idea of heaven became apparent to me some time before The Secret when a friend asked me to attend a book signing by someone she referred to as a great philosopher and scientist. I nevertheless was not impressed, particularly with Demartini's umpteenth reference to his five houses dotted around the world, his luxury yacht with its resort community he circumvents the globe annually; and how we all could live his fabulous life if we just attends his very expensive workshops.

It's not that making a helluva profit and going to heaven is of necessity mutually exclusive. No doubt being rich can be heavenly, but for others having too much money also appears to be a literal hell on earth as well. The latest case in point being the  death of one of Britain's richest woman, 48 year old Eva Rausing, due to a suspected drug overdose. At her death she and her husband had severely degenerated due to drug addiction. An affliction which they, with all the resources at their disposal, were powerless to overcome. Rather the point to grasp is how such references to becoming instantly wealthy are consistently reflective of The Secret's consumerist message and how achieving commercial success has become intertwined with popular new age spirituality.

Furthermore when one understands the methods used by propagandists one can further gain insight into this unprecedented appeal. Though irrespective of its seeming attractiveness, one must constantly be vigilant of the consumerist motive that drives such views.

It simply comes down to this:

It is not that they (the spiritual marketers) wish us to become rich, but rather that the advocates of these views want our money... as such diminishing our true chances in this regard.

This is very strongly worded in an article titled Oprah's Ugly Secret by Peter Birkenhead who puts it as follows.

Steve Martin used to do a routine that went like this: "You too can be a millionaire! It's easy: First, get a million dollars. Now... If you put that routine between hard covers, you'd have "The Secret", the self-help manifesto and bottle of minty-fresh snake oil currently topping the bestseller lists.

I suppose when looking at it from the predominant commercial paradigm of our time, in having elevated their particular brand of self-help psychology to the level of a pop religious faith, the producers cunning should in a manner of speaking be lauded. As such they perhaps are not truly the evil one's in this regard. For as evil is often defined in the new age world, it is considered to be the denial of self. And it is patently obvious that Byrne and her team certainly had been incredibly sober-minded about their incredibly profitable undertaking.

They therefore may very well not be new ageists at all, but that they saw the market opportunity in the prevailing new age mindset. In this manner cunningly disguising themselves as the proverbial wolves in sheep's clothing and so to seize upon their unsuspecting prey.

While laughing all the way to the bank I'm sure they in their wildest imaginings could not have envisaged the abandoned appeal their concoction would have had. Particularly since the scale of its acceptance must have been significantly beyond what even they in their wildest dreams could have imagined.

Conscious Malice

The world is a dangerous place, not because of those who do evil, but because of those who look on and do nothing. – [Albert Einstein]

Ultimately, the failure to take responsibility if one is responsible for the consequences of our actions, certainly is evil notwithstanding our intent. Hence the association between ignorance and evil in Book I.

Yet what sets The Secret apart from any other professed self-help means that preceded it, is that it more than any other, unashamedly feeds into these unconscious proclivities – in particular, wantonness and greed – by disseminating falsehood through gross omission of the facts, while actively encouraging a delusional denialist mentality.

One of its greatest omissions being the failure to convey that in most cases the truly great people of history were particularly sober-minded about their magnificent undertakings. In most cases they were prepared to sacrifice potential poverty and humiliation in order to persevere with their endeavors, often without even a hope of success or recognition in their lifetime.

And to bring this to the previous discussion, were completely aware of the potential personal costs associated with their endeavors. Frequently these great spirits were willing to face losing their life without any promise of greatness, only for society to adjudge them great in posterity. Nevertheless most of the truly great individuals of history are nameless as they had not sought any recognition to begin with.

In fact most of the truly great men and woman of all time became great primarily because they were prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice. This includes losing everything, and even their life such as Socrates, Jesus, Alexander, Joan of Ark, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X...

But also because they were prepared to suffer whatever discomfort they deemed necessary to eventually achieve their goals. Examples include Galileo, Darwin, Einstein, Planck, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, Aung San Suu Kyi...

History also shows that most of the great scientific pioneers over the ages have only achieved acclaim in posterity, having been considered mavericks for having endeavored in the areas in which they did.

Thus even though I have somewhat excused the makers of The Secret in the previous section, I now want to fully retract this defense. I'm doing so primarily because of such omissions which deliberately seek to convince that achieving one's goals is easy and that one can do so merely by thinking wishfully.

For this reason spiritual consumerism must be regarded as an evil against humanity as opposed to the material kind. This is primarily because it is a concerted and deliberate manipulation of the deepest fiber of what makes us human.

What else do these carefully selected half-truths' amount to but blatant indoctrination for financial gain without any regard for the spiritual and psychological wellbeing of those targeted?

This clearly is contrary to what it professes to do. As such it is unscrupulous and unconscionable, and as the common definition is understood, is true evil—not mere unconsciousness as Jung defined it as.

Thus, apart from the unintended harmful consequences our unconscious actions or inactions may have on ourselves and others, our inadvertent ineptitude is yet not evil. At least as we ordinarily interpret it. According to the usual definition, the association we have with those who commit evil, are that they do their callous deeds with clear conscious intent, regardless of the consequences on others.

Though rather than condemning The Secret for the blatant sacrilege it is, for some obscure reason even some of the most learned and influential members of society also appear to have become completely infatuated by this outrageous deceit.
Chapter Two

The Writing on The Wall

Neo Tyranny

I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man. –– [Thomas Jefferson]

When contemplating Le Bon's words in The Unconscious Religion one must grasp that Nazism first and fore mostly emanated from a religious cult. In fact the fervor that ensued resulted from Hitler seizing on the knowledge that the masses can more easily be manipulated in this way. Hence what essentially transpired was that he formulated his own self-styled religious doctrine as a vehicle to drive and promote his devious political ends.

This is further intimated in the following extract from University of Calgary professors Irving Hexham and Karla Poewe's New Religions as Global Culture: The Sacralization of the Human.

To most people outside of Germany the Nazi movement is an example of a political ideology gone mad. It was that. But, as George Mosse pointed out in the early 1960's the Nazi movement was inspired by various new religions and, at its core, was deeply religious, but violently anti-Christian. Of course, for most Germans, National Socialism was a political movement that claimed to be able to solve the problem of unemployment and end the Great Depression. But, the SS were almost totally adherents to a new German neo-paganism...

The Arian race concept was specifically derived from Hindu mythology, in particular the Aryan invasion of India by northern tribes a few thousand years ago. The conclusion we therefore can reasonably draw from the above is that, at the core, religiosity – and specifically New Age 'spirituality', albeit a devious perversion of the original form – was largely responsible for World War II and the ideology that fuelled the madness that led to the Holocaust.

Furthermore, other than having aided the dictators and despots of the early 20th century, the main application of Le Bon's work had been in the field of marketing.

The question this raises is: what distinguishes marketing from indoctrination?

What is evident is that the marketing industry's emphasis is specifically on the visual aspects referred to in Shackling Imagery. Belief on the other hand tended to be a far more subtle matter. The eventual belief in a product or service usually becoming entrenched in the brand image which develops over time. Thus there is not an overt attempt at instilling a belief orientation per se.

Belief consequently becomes entrenched in the quality perception of the product itself, though this at times can border on a form of virtual worship. Nevertheless whatever the belief perception may be, it usually is an essential element of the quality of the offering itself. For this reason, given that business can at times be cut-throat, in this regard there always tended to be an implicit ethical line which seldom is overtly crossed.

What therefore distinguishes The Secret from being mere marketing is that it most certainly had crossed this implicit line. Firstly it does not offer a product or anything else of true value, but specifically purveys a belief it deviously purports to be based on science. But more crucially, that this belief itself feeds into the prevailing consumerist milieu which it deliberately seeks to exploit.

To discern the fundamental difference between a marketer and what can otherwise be referred to as a spiritual marketer, is this.

A marketer will usually ask: "how can I bring attention to my offering in order to maximize its sales?"

This would include emphasizing the special features of the product or improving the quality perception of the offering in whatever way the market demands. Thus despite the marketer's inducements to purchase, the consumer ultimately is still in control of the overall process.

On the other hand the spiritual marketer would be motivated by the question: "How can I instill a belief orientation in the mind of my prospect that I may program them into giving me ongoing revenue without having to provide any meaningful value exchange in return?"

The following 2006 Time.com article emphasizing exactly how blatant this emphasis had been.

The film's backers say they deliberately aimed to make "wealth enhancement" a major element of the project. "We desired to hit the masses, and money is the number one thing on the masses' minds," says Bob Rainone, a former IBM salesman and telecom exec who now serves as Byrne's U.S. business partner. Wealth enhancement is also part of The Secret's business plan.

This in itself should be the dead giveaway. That The Secret was conceived as a business idea, particularly targeting it at the greedy ("money is the number one thing on the masses mind") and not a spontaneous act of inspiration with the intent being to enlighten.

As such they've use methods of indoctrination in the same way a Napoleon, Hitler and a Mussolini had done. So while Hitler evoked the imagery of the blond-haired blue-eyed (notably not his own characteristics) superior 'Aryan' race, The Secret evokes vivid images of the stuff we desire, accompanied with the belief that one can effortlessly manifest them by using The Secret's 'secret' methods. Thus instead of doing it for political expediency, The Secret's tyrants were motivated by unadulterated commercial gain.

Again, if you had become a devotee of The Secret, the question I'm obliged to ask you is: how do you feel about it now that you know you had been deliberately targeted? That you were previously deemed likely to abdicate your conscious reason to these unscrupulous marketer's inducements, in doing so, to have become part of Rainone and co's select psychographic as had been predicted by their carefully crafted business plan?

_______________________________

As will be discussed in Formula for Disaster in Book III, it should be noted that Hinduism has nothing to do with Nazism, except that Hitler had maliciously subverted Indian mythology, the associated symbolism – such as the Swastika which is a Hindu Symbol for Good luck – had been used as a particular method of indoctrination as per the advocacy of Le Bon. Himmler however indicated that it was the ideal religion to support his idea of a superior race, particularly given the notion of reincarnation as well as the associated rigid enforcement of the caste system entrenched in its name. Himmler also carried a Bhagavad-Gita in his possession. This melding of diverse religious notions with a perverse political ideology led to the greatest evil of all time.

For a more in-depth study into the relationships between Nazism and the New Religions of 20's and 30's, Karla Poewe's New Religions and the Nazi's provide substantial documentary corroboration. Also refer to the Discovery World documentary  Nazis: The Occult Conspiracy as well as Esoteric Nazism.

Descent to Inanity

Men become civilized, not in proportion to their willingness to believe, but in their readiness to doubt. – [H. L. Mencken]

It might sound melodramatic fearing that a simple DVD and book is a great evil threatening the soul of humankind. Though the real danger is in the subtlety of the deception. It has become really problematic arguing against any aspect of it without being labeled a negative spirit or one who is anti-love and human brotherhood.

On the other hand how can one sit back when such an inane philosophy is as readily accepted? How for instance can we reasonably reconcile views as the one below by Lisa Nichols with our oftentimes harsh daily reality?

Everytime you look inside your mail expecting to see a bill, guess what—it'll be there. Each day you go out dreading the bill! You're never expecting anything great. You're thinking debt, you're expecting debt. So debt must show up so you won't think you're crazy. And every day you confirm your thought: Is debt going to be there? Yes, debt's there. Why? Because you expected debt to be there. So it showed up, because the law of attraction is always obedient to your thoughts. Do yourself a favor—expect a check!

On reading that you might ask: but what's wrong with it, she's not saying we should not pay our bills? She's merely suggesting we look at our debt differently, rather to look towards what we want and not what we don't want and towards the future instead of being stuck in the past.

This extract should however be viewed within the greater context of the book where all aspects such as health, weight loss, potential accidents, are to be remedied with a similar notion—by merely shifting our focus away from the problem, as if in doing so, the problem will go away by its own accord. Thus my vehement criticism is in the consistent idea that one should only perceive the positive while completely dismissing the negative.

I also am convinced that most people are not sitting around dreading the bill, and then as a consequence of this dread are not expecting anything great. The reality today is that we are expecting far too much and thus that the exact opposite is true. It is that most people tend to be in denial about the state of their debt, a great many not even opening the bills when it does arrive. And the main reason for this denial is that confronting it soberly will unavoidably impact on their ever growing list of unfulfilled expectations.

That this is in fact what is being conveyed is iterated by the following reference by Bob Proctor found immediately after Nichols quote.

Desire connects you with the thing you desired and expectation draws it into your life.

What they in fact are communicating is this.

To get more of what you want, you merely need become more expectant of life.

One therefore can reasonably conclude that the associated expectant mindset had been responsible for accumulating the substantial debt in the first place. As such the only reason one would dread the bill is that it is an unwelcome reminder that one's expectations may have to be significantly curtailed.

The danger with accepting sweeping remarks as Nichols' in the context of The Secret's philosophy is that, when the bill does arrive, one is inclined to become complacent about it. The sense of ease deriving from the belief that one does not need to worry about such matters as the imaginary check will indeed be arriving soon to rescue one from one's already dealt with and consequently nonexistent predicament.

The resulting distorted view of reality directly following from The Secret's three step action plan—which in fact is credited to Nichols. As step one proposes: "Place an order with the Universe..." Then onto step two: "How the universe will bring it to you, is not your concern or job... When you are trying to work out how it will happen, you are emitting a frequency that contains a lack of faith..."

And step three: "It's important to feel good, to be happy, because when you're feeling good you're putting yourself in the frequency of what you want... It could be you wake up and it's just there. It's manifested..."

Paraphrasing the above, what in truth is being conveyed is that, facing the reality of the bill will not make one feel good in the moment, which in turn will nullify "The Universe's" assistance in getting one out of one's 'temporary' tight spot.

It is furthermore inane because thinking a check in the mail, will not make it happen of its own accord, no matter how hard one intends. This is not a statement of belief, but one grounded on absolute cause-and-effect scientific fact. I suppose it must be a lottery check she is referring to which our weekly cash investments and positive mental vibrations would have scientifically assisted us with.

The inanity of it aside, the suggestion that one ignores one's debt is tantamount to proclaiming that taking responsibility for the actions that brought it about, is irresponsible.

To put it another way, being in the moment in this case requires one fully accept the burden of one's debt that it ceases to be an unconscious sword constantly hovering over one's head. The reality is that debt in most cases is a painful consequence of not curtailing our spending when we did not truly have the finances at our disposal.

As financial expert Suze Orman indicated, most Americans cannot get out of debt simply because they have no idea about how much they owe, and how much their debt is costing them. This being no different to an overweight person not wanting to look at themselves in the mirror, and therefore to come face to face with the reality that their eating may well be out of control.

In fact this denial is exactly what Byrne is relying on when targeting her victims. But more importantly, is actively fostering. This is very evident from the following concluding extract taken from the chapter on wealth creation.

I never opened my bills until I had got myself into the feeling that they were checks. If I opened my bills before convincing myself they were checks, my stomach would churn when I opened them. I knew that the emotion of the churning in my stomach was powerfully bringing more bills. I knew I had to erase that feeling, and replace it with joyful feelings, so I could bring more money into my life. In the face of a pile of bills, that game worked for me, and it changed my life. There are so many games you can create, and you will know what works best for you by the way you feel inside. When you make-believe, the results come fast!

With this Byrne has taken the notion of living in the land of make-believe to a dangerous next level: that one completely immerses oneself in one's fantasies, and that in merely doing so, to expect that one can miraculously manifest any reality one desires.

However our debt is a reality we cannot afford to ignore or wish away, and certainly is one we most definitely should not willingly choose to as it inevitably will only be to our much greater future detriment.

And it is not karma that will bring this future suffering to you. Rather it is the simple cause-and-and-effect principle of the psychological universe known as consequence you will be attracting.

And it usually builds up considerable momentum if it is to be ignored. It is almost the only psychodynamic one can bank on. Indeed it is so reliable in its outworking it may well be called "The Law of Attraction".

Thus if we are in severe debt, the recommended recourse would be to first feel every ounce of that pain, that your stomach churns is yet a sign that you are living in reality and not insane, but not to be crippled by its specter either as there almost always is a way out—albeit that it more than likely will be very painful in the short term.

In this way, by taking responsibility for the actions that had brought it about, to devise a clear plan of action to get us out of our dire circumstance. And while feeling every bit of the agony our irresponsible actions had brought about (though often it merely is the result of unfortunate timing of uncontrollable events as the current financial crisis is), to vow never to unconsciously bury ourselves into such a debilitating hole again.

_______________________________

Related to Nichol's remark "Do yourself a favor—expect a check (that is through the mail)!" it is noteworthy that the number one method with which American's are scammed every year, is through  bogus checks which are received through the mail. This information came to my knowledge courtesy of The Oprah Winfrey Show.

Troubled Waters

The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. – [Theodore Roosevelt]

As an adjunct to the previous discussion on debt, it is also pertinent to ponder the current state of the global economy in relation to the timing of the release of the DVD. This was more or less 2005/2006, a time when the world economy was booming and banks were urging consumers to take on substantial debt. Now just over two years on we are facing one of the bleakest recessions for many a decade.

According to those who have been around long enough, we are facing the first significant bear market for more than two decades, with a 20% drop in value in Wall Street during June 2008 (though far worse during September/October 2008). But ominously, that the economic environment has never been as confusing. And unlike bear markets since the great depression, where the effects emanated from emerging markets, America is at the epicenter of the current economic turmoil.

Factors influencing this are: America's spiraling budget deficit; the perilous drop in dollar value over the past 5 years having lost more than 50% of its value to the euro; the oil price being at previously inconceivable highs; prices of basic foods such as rice and wheat doubling over the past year; threats to US employment with the seventh consecutive month of job losses by the end of July 2008, a 21% increase in a single year (that is considering that the war in Iraq and Afghanistan should have had an artificial decreasing effect); U.S. consumer confidence has dropped to the lowest levels in 30 years; and the unprecedented home-foreclosure rate and lending crisis—more so than during any other time.

The home foreclosure crisis is also not only an American occurrence as more or less the same scenario is being played out in most economies. For instance in South Africa the interest rate has almost doubled over the past two years with even more rate hikes expected because of the prevailing economic conditions. After his tenth increase in this period, the reserve bank governor indicated that "untenable high demand for bank credit emanating from the private sector is pushing up interest rates in the market place", hence he is obliged to respond with rate hikes.

Because of this additional burden over and above rising food and oil prices, it is predicted that the home foreclosure rate will triple within the next year, yet the demand for credit continued unabated. At the end of July 2008, two months after the last rate hike, statistics have shown that demand for credit had significantly increased compared to previous periods, not decreasing as expected. Because of this economist are now predicting further rate hikes to compensate for this anomalous occurrence.

The increased demand for credit having been the main reason the lending rate was increased to begin with, and under normal circumstances would've sufficed as an adequate economic measure to slow down credit demand. The problem being that debtors were financing their debt burden with new debt in order to maintain their lifestyles instead of adapting to the economic conditions.

This scenario in a country where the lending rate is already six times that of the United States (the prime rate was 12% at the time compared to 2% in the US). Because of the relatively low interest rates, financing debt with more debt is far more extensive in the US. Notably American interest rates have been stable or decreasing during this time as the Federal Reserve is more concerned about maintaining current economic activity. The irony therefore is that, while the rest of the world is attempting to ward off the crisis by increasing lending rates, the US is decreasing their already low rates. The motivation being to prevent the escalation of unemployment and further exacerbating their already tenuous credit crisis.

To get a sense of what these indicators spell, it is useful to consider the following extract from an article titled Another World Depression? by Indian academic Dr. Jayati Gosh.

Many years ago, the economist Charles Kindleberger had identified the pattern of a financial crisis in his classic work, "Manias, Panics and Crashes". The crisis is the last phase of a cycle which begins with an initial boom. The upswing usually starts with some change, such as new markets, new technologies or political transformations. It proceeds via credit expansion, rising prices, particularly of assets, and euphoria. Overtrading and then speculative mania emerge, "as a larger and larger group of people seek to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved". Ultimately, the markets cease rising and, as a consequence, some highly borrowed players find themselves overstretched. This is the "distress" stage. Distress generates other failures, including some unexpected ones, and this is followed by a stage of "revulsion" or "discredit". The final phase is a self-feeding panic, involving a downward free fall.

The above article was written in 1998, most of which we have witnessed over the past number of years and we can reasonably assume we are entering the 'distress' stage—though thankfully not, as yet, the 'revulsion' stage.

These ominous indicators definitely spelling gloomy economic times for the foreseeable future. But it is apparent that those who believe in views such as The Secret who are facing possible foreclosures, rather than dealing with the issue in a practical way, would take Nichols advice and spend the little they have to remedy the situation on expensive workshops or lottery tickets, in the hope that a check will magically manifest itself in the mail.

In this way praying and believing that The Secret and its 'methods' will somehow save them from their impending doom.

_______________________________

Note that these were factors before the Lehman Brothers collapse after which these indicators plummeted dramatically.

________________

At the end of July 2008, two months after the last rate hike in South Africa, statistics had revealed that demand for credit had significantly increased compared to previous periods, and had not decreased as was expected. Because of this economist predicted further rate hikes to compensate for this anomalous occurrence.

Sober Reflections

We learn from history that we do not learn from history. – [George Wilhelm Hegel]

To get some sense of the period before the Great Depression, it's useful to again reflect on Hall's writing. The following extract is also from The Secret Teachings of all Ages, describing attitudes three years before the 1929 economic meltdown.

My fleeting contact with high finance resulted in serious doubts concerning business as it was being conducted at that time. It was apparent that materialism was in complete control of the economic structure, the final objective of which was for the individual to become part of a system providing an economic security at the expense of the human soul, mind, and body.

This gives an eyewitness impression of the mindset of the time. Though this period cannot in any way be compared to the unprecedented technological materialism of today, considering the most prized material possession then other than one's house had to have been a Model-T Ford. That is considering the trappings of today such as 3D TV's (let alone TV), computers, smart phones, air travel, the Internet. And not basic everyday necessities such as electric stoves, washing machines, refrigerators and electric irons were available either. Let alone practically a billion times greater assortment of meaningless stuff to acquire, were even contemplated back then.

A Pew Research Survey conducted in 2006 found that the number of things Americans now consider as necessities as opposed to mere luxuries has "multiplied over the past decade."

Even with this it is important to be cognizant that rampant materialism on its own is not the most ominous indicator signaling the beginning of a dramatic economic decline.

Within the context of this work and considering the scale of uncritical acceptance of delusive offerings such as The Secret, it is useful to consider the views of Charles P. Kindleberger mentioned in a previous extract. Before his death he was MIT Professor of Economic History and author the 1973 book The World in Depression 1929-1939 and the most eminent analyst on the events that led to the Great Depression. The following extract is from a subsequent book titled Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises.

The object of speculation may vary widely from one mania or bubble to the next... At a late stage, speculation tends to detach itself from really valuable objects and turn to delusive ones. A larger and larger group of people seek to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved. Not surprisingly, swindlers and catchpenny schemes flourish.

Clearly the extent of the proliferation of such swindlers and the grandiose nature of their delusive schemes today is probably the most ominous indicator that we currently are at such a cataclysmic economic stage. This is because the acceptance of such delusion is reflective of the greater uncritical milieu they thrive in.

Why it furthermore is the true danger is because a rational mindset which reacts to the objective facts – in particular, having the ability to make a rational distinction between a luxury and a necessity – may yet remedy what potentially can become an unprecedented economic catastrophe from occurring.

Paradise Foreclosed

The pleasures of the world are deceitful; they promise more than they give. They trouble us in seeking them, they do not satisfy us when possessing them and they make us despair in losing them. – [Madame de Lambert ]

When examining Kindleberger's remarks, he was specifically referring to the attitudes that contribute to the collapse of money markets. Thus his reference was directed at fraudster and delusive products pertaining to this. However the attitudes of those who engage the money market is representative of the greater societal milieu the money market operate in. For this reason the following observation by Kindleberger is very revealing about the associated mindset responsible for economic meltdowns, but which is also reflective of the greater society as a whole.

As firms or households see others making profits from speculative purchases and resales, they tend to follow: "Monkey see, monkey do." In my talks about financial crisis over the last decades, I have polished one line that always gets a nervous laugh: "There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich."

To put it another way: "The inability to keep up with the Jones's has the tendency to drive one positively green with envy. In fact, it is downright depressing."

When assessing the conditions necessary for the complete collapse of an economic system, it is apparent that a critical mass of the populous appears not to respond timeously to the prevailing economic status quo. In particular economic measures put in place to curtail spending such as increasing the lending rate, become wholly ineffective at such times. These individuals then would also be the ones who would eventually bear the brunt of the economic pressures that are applied during normal economic down turns.

Let us assume this critical mass is around 5% of the population and that during ordinary recessions this mass is not even remotely exceeded. However when this hypothetical mass is surpassed the chances of economic decay becomes greatly enhanced. That is in terms of duration as well as the eventual extent, but that the economic spill over would also affect those who otherwise would have been reasonably insulated during ordinary economic fluctuations.

The cause of this extraordinary state of affairs is that the aforementioned critical mass of individuals would usually continue their consumptive behavior irrespective of the economic circumstances. As such they become the straw that ends up breaking the proverbial camel's back. In effect they would've been the ones who had caused the oversized bubble to begin with.

The process starts off with an economic boom where, as Kindleberger previously intimated, a number of individuals make initial killings on speculative acquisitions. This is particularly in real estate purchases but also on investments on the open market. Jumping on the economic bandwagon by making similar speculative investments in real estate or the stock market, many would indebt themselves in the belief that the money they invested, would similarly soon be recouped. Accompanying this belief they in all likelihood would increase their standard of living to reflect their newly assumed economic status.

This is even though their investments are yet to bare the promised dividend. In their desperate attempt to maintain the prosperous and successful image they as a result wish to portray, they are likely to further increase their already considerable debt. Their existing properties or investments usually serving as surety.

As the economic circumstances worsen, their first priority tends to be to maintain their newly acquired standard of living. As a consequence their response would be to finance their existing debt with even more debt. This in the belief that it merely is a temporary storm that must be weathered in this way, and therefore that the good times does not have to be curtailed. Indeed because of the gloomy circumstances, to avoid the onset of depression, many increase their lavishness to prove to themselves and others that all is still well.

This aside from the fact that the principal reason for the economic downturn was that an unsustainable level of economic activity was reached and that an inevitable economic slowdown is required. This consequently affects the value of all fixed assets because of the more expensive mortgages which results from the increased lending rates at such times. As a further consequence of the economic slowdown, the increased lending rate results in a decrease in the demand for property.

Thus, once the value of the asset base that sustained the lavish lifestyle becomes depleted, the perilous house of cards begins to collapse.

However as a parallel, banks also tend to be very bullish with their debt during the initial period of euphoria that started all the hype. Regardless of their general frugality, they too tend to throw caution to the wind at such times, also wanting to reap the economic spin offs. This is because banks also tend to have an unavoidable short to medium-term focus. This is so since the respective CEO's and managers performances are usually measured by their annual bottom line that dictates their bonus checks paid at the end of the economic year.

In normal economic circumstances the usual measures would yet suffice as banks as a rule have more than enough reserves to fully recover their investment. They also have sufficient asset guarantees that could be ceded as a result, oftentimes making significant profits because of it.

The dilemma during times of dire economic crisis is that, because they are so heavily borrowed, and because so many are unable to meet their obligations, mass foreclosures now begin to have a draining effect. This is because their asset acquisitions literally become gigantic white elephants which banks are unable to sell at the prices they require.

Once again, if the critical mass is exceeded, the property market would've gone beyond the saturation point, making it very difficult to find willing buyers to liquefy their increasingly burdensome asset base.

Because of the domino effect, property prices dramatically plummet. As a result many smaller banks struggling to liquefy their assets would be forced to foreclose. Because of the associated disinvestment, it then would have a ripple effect throughout the entire economy. The end result being that the usual fast economic recovery is near impossible to affect.

Thus when considering the above scenario, the most ominous economic indicator is that a number of major international banks have already foreclosed or would've but for the fact that they are being buoyed by their respective government's fiscus. The latest (1 July 2008) statistic provided by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the federal agency that backs bank deposits, reported the biggest jump in "problem institutions" it has seen since the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s, a 52% increase from a year ago.

But because borrowers are not able or unwilling to repay their debt, coupled with the increasing numbers who now have to dig into their savings, it is a scenario that is completely unsustainable if it is to continue for very long.

_______________________________

This was my view months before the Lehman Brothers collapse. It has since turned out that major American banks were far more reckless and complicit in the events that led to the crash than indicated in this section.

The Final Straw

No country can squander itself to prosperity on the ruin of its taxpayers. – [Herbert Hoover]

The previous discussion portrays an incredibly bleak scenario but is based on a very real phenomenon called "the debtor's death spiral", and which is exacerbated by the American budget deficit. The fact that low interest rates had been artificially maintained in the US for such a sustained period merely is intensifying what will be its ensuing vortex.

However what is most concerning about the previous indicators, is that month-on-month analysts are commenting that the indicators are almost always worse than predictions. And what makes the scenario far worse, is that the home foreclosure crisis happened without increasing interest rates, but merely that a great many Americans cannot afford their existing debt because of the extent of their indebtedness. Any rate hike at this critical time would immediately overload the already overstretched economy. The result would be that a very rapid economic meltdown will almost immediately ensue which will have far more dramatic consequences than the one discussed before.

To reiterate this, a 31 July 2008 CNNMoney article titled The Fed's Rate Dilemma, starts off with the following caption: "Interest rates likely on hold for a while as worries about economic weakness and inflation leave central bank with few good options."

The article further quotes Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, who said "I think the Fed is not really part of the equation anymore because of the corner they've painted themselves into".

This indicating the extent of the current crisis in that the once powerful American Reserve cannot even respond to save itself, simply because it and the current administration has completely dug themselves into a very deep and debilitating economic hole from which they are now powerless to get themselves out of. That is considering that Americans collectively are $9.5 trillion in debt.

The CNNMoney article was published on 31 July 2008, and was about why the US Federal Reserve meeting on 5 August most likely would keep interest rates unchanged, and not increase it to curb mounting inflationary pressures as other reserves around the world had done. The article was correct in its prediction in that, despite the need for an increase to curb the level of debt, the Fed maintained interest rates at 2%. That is compared to European interest rates which currently are at 4.25%.

Because of this, the real danger for Americans are that they are used to incredibly low lending rates, while nations such as South African can withstand interest rates in excess of 25% if need be. In America's case, even a small correction very well could be the straw that will break the economic camel's back.

Because of the size of the US economy, the resulting aftermath will cause a ripple effect that will invariably cause a global economic disaster unlike anything experienced before. As the expression goes, when America sneezes, the whole world catches the flue.

_______________________________

By December 2008, the fed lowered the interest rate to 0.25%, the lowest it has even been, even lower than before or during the great depression.

On a Knife's Edge

Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body – the producers and consumers themselves. – [Herbert Hoover]

After writing this section on the economy I felt rather uneasy about painting as gloomy a picture as I did. However as timing would have it, America's debt crisis and debt obsession is now being highlighted in an unprecedented manner in a new documentary titled I.O.U.S.A, featuring prominent investor Warren Buffett which was released on 21 August 2008. The documentary's central message is that "America must mend its spendthrift ways or face an economic disaster of epic proportions."

The Seattle Times in their review of the movie describes it as follows.

A private-equity billionaire, a former federal government official and a Baltimore newsletter editor have made a documentary film that they hope can do what an endless parade of policy papers has not: Convince Americans that debt has created a looming economic crisis that would make the Great Depression look like a market correction.

What makes the scenario far bleaker than it otherwise would have been is that, apart from the depressing global economic state of affairs, because America also has to additionally contend with financing a costly war, has even less to spend on remedying this predicament. Here the greater economic tragedy is that a select group of large companies are currently reaping the rewards of high oil prices in Iraq. This despite the enormous cost on the already struggling American taxpayer who ultimately is charged with footing the final bill for their continued excesses.

The further irony being that, while the men and women who are laying down their lives may be doing so out of genuine patriotism, those who started it invariably could not have been as all the facts reflect their motivation could only have been unadulterated greed.

But moreover, and an aspect Americans prefer to remain absolutely in the dark over, is that China is increasingly financing their continued spending. In a 2005 article, consultant David Hale writes about the burgeoning US current account deficit.

The outlook for the dollar in 2005 will depend upon whether China has a continuing boom which sustains the income of the commodity-producing nations or a slump which sets the stage for renewed central bank intervention. The resilience of the dollar in the face of massive external deficits demonstrates there always will be a buyer for the currency. But in the current global environment, it is China that will determine who the buyers are.

Putting it another way, the reason interest rates are not much higher in the US today is because the Chinese have decided for whatever reason to keep the US economy afloat by buying dollars, yet they are not receiving a very good return at all. This is tantamount to China being America's bank, and in a manner of speaking may well hold the power to foreclose on the world's largest economy. This was recently iterated in a The New Yorker article.

More than any other nation in history, the United States depends, economically, on the kindness of strangers. Right now, Asian investors appear very kind... As long as it's in their self-interest to keep America afloat, the dollar will not crash.

This is from an article titled In Yun We Trust. Fortunately for America a tenuous quad pro quo relationship exists between the two, China being the producer and America the primary consumer of its goods—China set to become the world's leading manufacturer by 2009. The article further discusses the consequences of such a possible foreclosure and why it has not happened to date.

Of course, the Chinese and the Japanese could decide that the costs of the falling dollar are too great, and suddenly stop (or, at least, cut back sharply) their lending to the United States. This would lead to a so-called "hard landing" for the U.S. economy: high inflation, punitive interest rates, collapsing stock prices and housing prices. It would also lead to bedlam for China and Japan. Their best customers would effectively be unable to afford their wares. To paraphrase John Paul Getty: If you owe the bank a hundred dollars, you've got a problem. If you owe the bank three trillion dollars, the bank's got a problem.

The irony of this is that the only saving grace for Americans at the moment is that the problem is as big as it currently is—it being that China cannot afford not to indulge US insatiability at this time. But apart from the ominous economic prospects, this conundrum places China in an incredibly powerful political bargaining position, in particular that much of China's human rights abuses are being overlooked. This being a situation that otherwise would've been untenable for the average American sensibilities, except that at the present they are enjoying paradise a bit too much to be bothered with the fact that they are indeed enjoying borrowed time.

Referring back to Lisa Nichols quote on expecting the bill, it certainly appears that the greater American society is in denial of their collective bill which they too seem disinclined to open. Perhaps the current administration is leaving this bowl of rotten eggs for the next presidential hopeful to contend with.

As the heading of a The Secret critique I read captions: that Americans are too busy "Creating a Culture of Cheerfulness as Rome Burns" to even remotely be bothered by the quagmire that is sustaining their current cheer.

_______________________________

See Addendum Global Economic Crisis: The Role of America, The Role of China and South Africa's Response.

Chapter Three

Into The Abyss

Ominous Parallel

Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true. – [Diane Arbus]

An interesting fact is that new ageism is not new at all, having surfaced in the late 19th century until its decline in the early nineteen thirties, with a revival again in the seventies. Moreover at its core, it is based on Vedic philosophy, one of the most ancient worldviews. Its eventual decline coinciding with events associated with the great depression.

To bring this discussion back to the thesis of this book, that is the decline of critical thinking and the prevalence of ideologies as The Secret, while the economic indicators on their own are disconcerting, the most ominous parallel we can draw to the great depression of 1929 is the proliferation of new age wealth gurus at the time.

The specific one's whose biographies are listed in the back of the book and who were still alive at that time are: Charles Haanel (1866-1949); Genevieve Behrend (1881-1960) and Robert Collier (1885-1950). At the time of the great depression their ages were 63, 48 and 44 respectively. The other two being Wallace Wattles (1860-1911) and Prentace Mullford (1834-1891).

To paraphrase Byrne's claims, they were preaching the very same prosperity message back then as she and her cohorts are doing today. Why the three is noted in particular is that, as much as The Secret claims to have based its philosophy on their proposed methods of achieving financial success, they had been around at one of the most economically depressing times in history.

That is from 1929 to the end of World War II in 1945. The timing of the Great Depression in relation to their ages therefore ought to completely discredit the efficacy of their proposed money making methods and means. In retrospect, some of them may very well have been of the swindlers at the time which Kindleberger referred to. As such they may have been responsible for creating the insatiable mindset that directly contributed to the system's collapse.

To put it another way, prosperity ideologies created the critical mass who did not respond to the economic circumstances. And who as a result of overstretching the system's capacity, were directly responsible for the resultant economic meltdown.

For this reason, when one assesses this period one may very well conclude that it was not necessarily bad macro-economic planning that crippled the world economy at the time, but rather that it was brought down by a prevailing insatiable consumerist religion fostering the belief that the good times were never going to end.

As such it is reflective of a prevailing psycho-spiritual crisis, the economic collapse being the outer manifestation of a much deeper societal malaise.

This does not necessarily mean that a particular religious orientation or worldview was responsible, but that a general belief orientation about the nature of reality had pervaded pre-depression American society. In a 1999 lecture titled Crashing Hopes: The Great Depression, Stanley K. Schultz, Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin gives six reasons for the extent to which American's invested in stock markets at the time, but which can also be regarded as the direct cause of the events that transpired. The first five being, rising stock dividends, increase in personal savings, relatively easy money policy, companies invested their over-production profits in new production, and lack of stock market regulation.

It is noteworthy that, with the exception of the last one, all the former most definitely applies to today. Though despite relatively more stringent stock market controls and the efficiency introduced by computerization, the extent of speculator activity today coupled with complicated derivative mechanisms, has all but negated advances that were made over the past eight decades. The weak monetary policy by the Bush regime is also very ominous, particularly in the face of the looming bear market.

In my assessment, the sixth one should be considered as the primary underlying cause which fuelled the reckless spirit that led to the others. Schultz describes it as the Psychology of Consumption.

The Psychology of Consumption fed the optimism of investors and gave them unquestioning faith in prosperity. When the Crash did come, it was even more devastating because of this unquestioned faith.

This is very much in line with the "Monkey see, monkey do" mindset described by Kindleberger and appears to be the very mentality of the CEO's responsible for the collapse of a number of American commercial banks. This consumerist mentality also exhibiting all the fervor of a religious sentiment as described by Le Bon, with a pervasive air of invincibility deriving from an underlying belief that one somehow is cosmically insulated from all potential economic calamity, and that the general state of prosperity is here to stay. Thus instead of being weary of the economic signs ahead, this subconscious consumerist religion fostered the notion of faith in the power of the god of Mammon, who would indefinitely ensure sustained riches. In particular, that having such faith would bring riches in spite of the circumstances.

When contemplating Schultz's remarks, it is opportune to again consider Step Two of the Secret.

How the universe will bring it to you, is not your concern or job... When you are trying to work out how it will happen, you are emitting a frequency that contains a lack of faith.

Here the danger is inherent in Emperor's New Clothes Syndrome in that one's unquestioned belief in prosperity would filter out any information which would prove the contrary. As such an individual with this belief orientation will do whatever is in their power to maintain the illusion associated with the belief—in this case, that there is not a financial problem.

This merely feeding into, and further exacerbating, the existing "unquestioned faith" that already is prevailing without The Secret's tantalizing doctrine still adding even more fuel to this fire.

_______________________________

The "wealth gurus" referred to in this section should not be confused with financial experts and counselors who give sound financial advice. Note that certain financial counselors have a more holistic approach in that they also look at the psychosocial, emotional, and even spiritual, reasons which may cause financial crisis. The 'gurus' referred to usually can be identified by their emphasis on esoteric – or delusive – means to manifest wealth, and particularly emphasize unquestioning belief and faith in the means being advocated.

The God of Mammon

Mammon: The god of the world's leading religion. – [Ambrose Bierce]

It's important to realize that I'm not inferring that: The Secret, or prosperity religions in general, are the cause of such economic crises'.

Rather that their prevalence in-and-of-its-own is indicative of the greater societal milieu that fraudsters find fertile ground in. In particular that the rate of acceptance of these ideologies today is proof positive of the extent of the Consumerist Psychosis that is feeding the economic decay.

In The Secret's case, this is evidenced by the fact that, in spite of its banality (and excluding the sale of the DVD), it has become the fastest bestselling book of all time.

A useful analogy to consider is the Exodus story of the Jews who after many years of devotion worshipped the golden calf of Mammon and thereby incurring God's wrath. This is not merely a story citing a particular incident in history. Rather, it is about a perennial psychological phenomenon that regularly repeats itself through periods of scarcity and abundance.

It is that the pendulum tends to swing between the worship of external affluence and pleasure (represented by the golden calf, and in particular, by 'religions' as The Secret) during periods of opulence and that of traditional values and intrinsic worth (represented by traditional religions).

It is so that during times of abundance the notion that the opulence of the time will be indefinitely sustained, informs a virtual insatiable mentality, and which in itself is unsustainable—this is indicative of the uncritical faith in prosperity Schultz referred to.

And once society has virtually consumed the essence that once was the source of their former cheer, a prolonged period of hardship and struggle inevitably ensues. At this time society, of necessity, reverts back to the solidity of time trusted values and traditions that had been responsible for their affluence in the first place.

Now, however, allowing the society to persevere through the harsher circumstances which coming to pass because of their previous reckless behavior.

It is important to note that the above reference is not necessarily confined to religious views, but more broadly to time tested values and codes of behavior—and hence the bible reference was a useful comparison.

Specifically, the real reason for the current day crisis in American financial institutions (but in corporate America in general), is that conventional wisdom had been put aside for illusive and delusive risky business practices, on the mere hope (or belief) that they would become profitable, regardless.

It also is not necessarily a criticism of the overt behavior during times of affluence, but in the pervasive belief in the sustainability of the state of affluence.

Consequently the primary indicator of times of impending crisis is associated with increasing hedonism. To reiterate the discussion in Happiness Delirium, it being that affluence and what it can buy is directly or indirectly being worshiped. That is directly as in The Secret or indirectly as a consequence of the pervasive belief that one's future affluence is guaranteed irrespective of one's actions, i.e. by investing in clearly fraudulent investment schemes as Bernie Madoff's.

Wanting to engage in pleasurable activities when so afforded in itself is not the root problem as the pleasures of one's labor after all is our due in as much as we indeed can afford it for our self. The issue is the virtual worship of the god of Mammon.

What this comes down to: is that overt pleasure seeking in such times becomes the object of one's humanly pursuits. It being diametrically opposed to it being the reward of our labors.

Or as Fankl put it: it should ensue, and not be pursued.

In other words: pleasure seeking becomes the object of one's exploits, not that we can occasionally indulge in pleasurable pursuits (which could include our labor itself) as the reward for our labors.

_______________________________

Exodus chronicling the Israelites journey out of Egyptian slavery. The early stages told of forty years of incredible hardship and starvation followed by years of receiving God's favor for which the Israelites glorified their Lord (this period of opulence is represented by the manna falling from heaven) followed by the worship of their good fortune itself which led to a dramatic decline (indicated by God's wrath on the Israelites for their worship of the golden calf of Mammon).

Again, my own worldview being agnostic and thus do not ascribe to any religious faith. However acknowledging the important role religious institutions can play in the moral and social development of society, though are neutral to any worldview except through critical assessment – as a social anthropologist might, and that religious texts mostly is such an endeavor, but written with religious symbolism – of the social implications of its doctrine and behavior.

The Dawn of Doom

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. – [Albert Einstein]

When analyzing the events of history it is apparent that after such periods of religious liberation during these more prosperous periods, there always tends to be a reversion back to more austere religious ideologies once the economic circumstances have dramatically made a turn for the worse.

As an ominous corollary to this trend, it is apparent that in Germany the Nazi movement seized on the depressing circumstances of the time and established their own new age religious ideology. Thus as was previously intimated, beside it being a political movement, National Socialism was a direct offshoot of the then new age thinking.

Notably until then Germany had been particularly fertile ground for countercultural beliefs and organizations. A particular example is an organization known as Der Wandervogel (the migratory bird) which emerged in 1905 that had been the ideological forerunner of the Hippie movement of the sixties. In fact German society at the time was particularly influenced by Romantic Idealism, the ideological forerunner of American Transcendentalism of the turn of the 20th century.

Though conspicuously, like Christianity during the Great Depression, the underlying belief orientation of the Nazi's was also very austere. The severity of the code being as a direct consequence of the prevailing economic hardships which Hitler had methodically sought to exploit.

What the above points towards is that the overly optimistic mentality of the 1920's with its overwhelming consumerist mindset had directly led to the events culminating in World War II and the Holocaust. As such the greater consumerist religion that was fostered in the early 1900's was indirectly responsible for the ensuing devastation. This is based on the contention that the insatiable belief orientation of the twenties – that is whether as a result of neo spirituality, or merely that there was a pervasive belief that the state of abundance would last indefinitely – was the primary reason for the general absence of economic common sense that led to the economic collapse.

It was also the primary driver of the mass psychology in the subsequent years which were incapable of proactively reacting to the objective conditions. The backlash of this mentality perpetuated the somber economic conditions which provided the fertile ground for Hitler's propaganda, which eventuality led to the even greater devastation of the forties.

All in all, the legacy of five years of unprecedented prosperity in the twenties, led to more than two decades of the bleakest and most devastating years in human history.

When considering the stresses the economic system is undergoing today, we should well ponder the following words of Agnes Meyer, a journalist during the period of the depression.

The chief lesson of the Depression should never be forgotten. Even our liberty-loving American people will sacrifice their freedom and their democratic principles if their security and their very lives are threatened by another breakdown of our free enterprise system. We can no more afford another general depression than we can afford another total war, if democracy is to survive.

If all things are considered, we have come full circle as we are facing the same social specter as before and that history seems intent on repeating itself, but that we have so much more to lose.

_______________________________

Because of their history a significant anti-cult weariness has developed in Germany. This is also reflective in institutions where in a particular a Berlin Senate report of 1997 titled Cults: Risks and Side-effects: Information on selected new religious and world-view espousing Movements and Psycho-offerings suggested that many neo religions, including paganism, the Hare Krishna movement and various Charismatic Churches as considered potentially socially dangerous.

What is also noteworthy is that the current global crisis has hit the USA and the UK particularly badly, both regions where The Secret has found particular fertile ground in, and where a very high level of consumer optimism had ensued, hence their respective high levels of consumer debt. This is in contrast to Germany where a relatively high level of consumer caution has prevailed, this now putting them in good stead to weather the crisis. This is a notable contrast to the years of the great depression where the crisis in fact began with the collapse of Austrian banking institutions.

Vanquished Truth

If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth, only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair. – [C. S. Lewis]

Notwithstanding that we should be concerned about the precarious state the world economy is in, this section is not necessarily about the inevitability of an impending great economic depression and therefore that one should dig oneself into a proverbial hole. Rather, it is about perceiving the objective circumstances for what they are that one is capable of choosing an appropriate course of action.

I'm certain if the biblical Joseph were to give a prophecy today he would advise that the seven years of plenty is all but over and that we must stock up our proverbial silos for the leaner seven years that are to lie ahead. Though in having foreseen the negative future circumstance, Joseph's prophecy allowed the Egyptian's to prepare in advance for the years of drought which otherwise would've been particularly bitter to endure.

Am I consequently also predicting such a bleak economic outlook in the foreseeable future?

I must confess that my powers are very limited in this regard. I merely am reporting on the facts as they are presenting themselves to me at present and attempting to gauge what it may spell by examining historical precedent.

Though to give you a definite answer, the best I can come up with is: not necessarily.

As much as we are definitely experiencing the beginnings of a great recession, it does not automatically imply a bleak time lies ahead. After all how we feel despite our predicament largely has to do with choice than mere circumstance. As Socrates once intimated: "Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity, or undue depression in adversity."

What this requires in our modern times, particularly facing a looming recession/depression, is that a radical consumer mind shift is required. Though that such a changed perspective indeed will take place, is completely against what I understand human nature to be, particularly when the main driver of the resultant behavior is the current levels of mindless insatiability and greed.

I also do not know what the aforementioned critical mass is, but moreover whether it in fact had already been exceeded. The latter may very well already be the case and we are yet to see how our financial institutions would hold up to such an approaching flood—usually there is an 18 month delay before the full affect is realized. If anything though, prosperity religion certainly has increased the critical mass, while economic factors such as rising food and fuel prices definitely is diminishing the global economy's capacity to withstand any significant pressures.

For the Americans the bigger issue is whether they can sleep comfortably knowing that the capacity to live their current lives is wholly dependent on the generosity of a former foe, and who because of this unwholesome state of affairs, are holding all the cards.

Irrespective of whether we are to be hit by an unprecedented economic crisis, what we should be mindful of is this. If we do not approach this time with realistic caution but rather with reckless abandon, as individuals we are likely to sooner rather than later experience a very real economic depression. This is because the convergence of negative factors is unlike anything that has gone before, least of which that the literal fuel sustaining our globalize world we have become accustomed to, is all but consumed.

What there is no shadow of a doubt about, is that the current economic crisis had resulted because of one thing. It is not necessarily American excesses, but the excesses of the Bush regime. Interestingly, while the democratic candidate Barrack Obama is calling for unpopular austere measures such as tax hikes to steer America out of this crisis, John McCain is promising that even less restrictive times will lie ahead.

And when one looks at the current economic devastation, what is patently obvious is that America had indeed lost the war in Iraq, and that every day they are maintaining their significant military presence, this loss is exacerbated.

Here one should very well consider a previous comment of Le Bon's.

It is only by obtaining some sort of insight into the psychology of crowds that it can be understood how slight is the action upon them of laws and institutions, how powerless they are to hold opinions other than those which are imposed upon them, and that it is not with rules based on theories of pure equity that they are to be led, but by seeking what produces an impression on them and what seduces them.

In practice the most unjust may be the best for the masses. Should it at the same time be the least obvious, and apparently the least burdensome, it will be the most tolerated.

This begs the question: is the average American that gullible, and as hedonistic in their collective psychological make-up, to fall as easily for the same old bag of tricks?

If recent history is anything to go by, it certainly appears so: it suggesting they are more than willing to trade their hard earned freedoms for the mere promise of future bliss, no matter how groundless it may actually be.

_______________________________

Also refer to Government is the Enemy

Decline of Reason

To every complex question there is a simple answer, and it is wrong... –– [H. L. Mencken]

The above failure is perhaps best summed up by the sentiments of the former head of the government accountability office David Walker when plugging I.O.U.S.A.

What we have to do is to recognize and reward elected officials – Democrats, Republicans, independents, whatever who tell the truth and who stand up and try to help make tough choices sooner rather than later to make sure that America's future is better than its past, and reject the BS and the nothing types of solutions and platitudes that we hear from so many politicians today.

The parallel we can draw from this and the state of the US nation, is that the same motivation for choosing a political party to govern one also applies to the religion we choose as the higher arbiter of our life. Hence that one may want an elusive government to run our stately affairs, or a delusive religion to shield one from reality, amounts to one and the same thing. The issue no longer being what Americans are prepared to stand for, but rather what they are willing to fall for.

What this state of affairs comes down to is this: that a government can wreak as much havoc – in the process jeopardizing its future stability – and yet for it to be condoned by its people; and that there is as wholesale an acceptance of a nonsensical doctrine as The Secret; is symptomatic of one and the same thing.

This is because the same uncritical mentality had equally gullibly fallen hook line and sinker for both.

Why it therefore is paramount to guard against mass indoctrination as The Secret which promises one too can become fabulously rich by using delusive as opposed to time proven and sober means, is that the scourge of our times is not the mere escalation of insatiability.

Nor is it famine, or war, or commercial exploitation, or environmental degradation, or the slaying of children in school-grounds by mere children, or sexual profanity, or pedophilia. Nor is it the violence in the eyes of the increasing multitudes possessed by Wrestlemania. Nor is it genocide.

Rather, the root cause of modern societal decay is inherent in the growing uncritical cult of happiness now, at whatever cost.

The prevailing hedonism being the most significant contributing factor responsible for the decay of basic societal values. Though more alarmingly, is that critical thinking is increasingly abdicated in favor of wholesale commercial conformity.

What the associated spiritual consumerism calls for is that value-driven ideals be replaced with self-serving valueless spirituality; with the likes of Madonna and Tom Cruise increasingly becoming our new-styled spiritual leaders.

What therefore is most worrisome about the increasing proliferation and uncritical acceptance of such opportunistic views, is the potential impact it will have on future humanity. This is particularly since the ethic of "contribution above all else" once espoused as the bedrock of conventional religion, is rapidly being replaced by the worship of the golden calf of Mammon.

And without a doubt the needy and the greedy are the preferred target market of such purveyors of mass delirium. Their mindless insatiability making them far more likely to be the seed that will succumb.

_______________________________

Though not discussed and its veracity is not considered in the general argument, further dynamics associated with the retirement of the baby-boomer generation in 2009 known as the age wave theory, also predicts economic slowdown by 2009 because of it. Certainly aspects associated with the baby-boomer generation – both good and bad – have significantly impacted societal values today.

Suffering with Grace

Deep unspeakable suffering may well be called a baptism, a regeneration, the initiation into a new state.—[George Elliot]

In the next installment, Thriving in the Great Recession, I will link the general discussion about suffering one's existential reality if so required, to our current very tumultuous times. In particular, to reflect on the apparent mentality of the United States during a time when many nations in the West are suffering severe government imposed austerity. This while America, one of the most indebted nations, appear completely hamstrung to even begin dealing with it.

To this end I will reflect on the events that led to the Second World War and the holocaust, and to ask the question: how did the Germans get themselves into the horrible mess they did?

This is a question Karla Poewe posed in the forward of New Religions and the Nazis.

This book was written to answer the question that has been burning in my mind for several decades, namely, how Germans came to support the Nationalist Socialist worldview that ended in the Holocaust and the loss of countless lives. How could Germans of the time think themselves into such a dead end?

And continuing in the introduction to the book, she greatly answered her question.

It took thirteen years to make National Socialism a major political and religious force in Germany. How it became a political force is well understood and brilliantly analyzed by historians; how it became a religious force is not. Religion is the weapon par excellence of revolutionaries, and how else can we explain the abject moral failure and dead end that Nazism represents? And just as religion represents the failure of Nazism, religion also tells the story of how its leaders captured the imagination of millions of young Germans for National Socialism.

This book is about gifted intellectuals who simply would not accept, as Bonhoeffer had, "that the world had come of age," meaning that Germans, like all suffering humankind, had to recognize their true situation and manage their lives in weakness and grace. Instead these self-appointed intellectual guardians of the defeated saw themselves as an elite determined not only to shape and usher in new myths and religions, but to use these to underpin National Socialism—indeed, to be its sacred, religious center.

What is apparent about Germany today, is that that they eventually had  learnt the lessons of the 20th century, but only after they inflicted great harm on the Jews, the German people and a great proportion of the globe at large. The issue for this century, like Germany was confronted after the Great Depression, is whether Americans in their current existential turmoil, too, are prepared to come of age by recognizing the gravity of their predicament; to unlike the Nazi's did, indeed manage their present state of weakness with humility and grace.

Alas, only time will tell, whilst there does not appear to be much time to do anything about it.

_______________________________

One can view Donald Trump's mantra, "Make America Great again", as a similar appeal to that made to the Germans by Hitler. This despite the fact that America had regained its esteem under Obama after the devastating legacy of the Bush administration.
Chapter Four

Conservative Religion and the Economic Crisis

Religious Identity and Economic Behaviour

History shows that where ethics and economics come in conflict, victory is always with economics. Vested interests have never been known to have willingly divested themselves unless there was sufficient force to compel them. – [B. R. Ambedkar]

When analyzing nations' economic behavior it is important to consider how belief systems inform the behavior of the respective society. It can often usurp the ne norms and values which founded them and or made them great. Greece being a prominent example. It went from the most significant contributor to Western civilization, to hardly any significant contribution in many a millennia. The same can also be said for Iran, formerly Persia, where its current values and culture had almost entirely been usurped by Islamic values and culture which essentially are Arabic in character, and thus are largely foreign to its founding roots.

In this chapter I want to explore what the underlying root cause for such dramatic social declines may be. And given that all the countries with the exception of Greece now experiencing the worst effects of the four year economic recession are overwhelmingly Catholic (Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and Ireland), and that that there is a very insignificant difference between Greek Orthodoxy and Catholicism, it is reasonable to ask the following question.

Is there is an underlying connection between these religious views and the ongoing European economic status quo?

While it is a very difficult and contentious proposition to prove such a theological causal link, there however is enough documented evidence that it indeed could be a root cause. For instance Professor Susan Schneider from the University of Geneva and Jean-Louis Barsoux of INSEAD in France describes the Catholic worldview as follows.

In the Catholic Church, profit was sanctioned for the benefit of the community, not for individual enhancement. The role of the (social and clerical) hierarchy was to intervene on behalf of the people to ensure collective well-being (the masses), to mediate in upholding the word of God, and to negotiate redemption

They juxtapose this with the Protestant worldview.

For protestants, access to God was more direct (no intermediary was necessary). Work, rather than a necessary evil (as viewed in Catholicism), was considered to be the means to redemption. It was this work ethic... that promoted capitalism.

The following is important in order to appreciate why this may influence increased productivity in communities who adopted the ethic.

This Protestant work ethic is based on underlying assumptions regarding individual achievement, perceived control over the environment, an instrumental approach, and the belief of a just world (equity). The profile of the PWE believer then is of an independently minded, competitive, hard-working individual who is prepared to persevere at a task to achieve desirable ends.

To get a sense get a sense of the influence of the social hierarchy, the authors go on to say.

In France, making money has long been viewed with some suspicion. Status and prestige came from family lineage and relationships—better to be an endebted aristocrat (ancien pauvre) than nouveau riche. Your personal value is derived from what you are rather than what you do or earn (ascription versus achievement). i

The influential researcher in the field of cultural economics, Geert Hofstede, additionally found that the Protestant work ethic was considered to drive GNP in the countries where it prevailed. ii

What is ironic is that as much as Catholicism emphasizes "profit was sanctioned for the benefit of the community, not for individual enhancement", the outworking may in fact not be according to that ideal. In a 2010 social experiment titled Religious Identity and Economic Behavior by the National Bureau of Economic Development (NBED) in Massachusetts in the US, found that.

Protestantism increases contributions to public goods. Catholicism decreases contributions to public goods, decreases expectations of others' contribution to public goods. iii

In other words the study suggests that those with Protestant views are more likely to contribute to society and the environment than Catholics. Catholics also have less of an expectation from others to be active in this sense.

While this finding cannot conclusively be considered outside the particular sample group, it nevertheless is in line with Schneider and Barsoux's view.

[That in the in the Protestant Work Ethic] the doctrine of corporate social responsibility can in part be understood as the ongoing effort to reconcile making money for individual benefit and the common good.

An article by the International Business Center titled  How do Hofstede's Dimensions correlate with the World's Religions?, further indicates that.

Predominantly non-Catholic] Christian countries have a strong belief in individuality, with individual's rights being paramount within the society. [iv

Thus, notwithstanding the commonly held view that the Protestant work ethic fosters rugged individualism, actually focuses on and fosters human rights. It thus is noteworthy that some of the most egalitarian societies such as Denmark and the Scandinavian countries are overwhelmingly Protestant, all rank very high in individualism. They too are of the most productive. And linking it to the discussion in the connection between religiosity and mental health, these factors could also provide a reason for the relative increased mental health of liberal Protestants as well.

_____________________

The views expressed were before the inauguration of Pope Francis who is proving to be one of the most prominent change agents in the church for many a decade.

_________________

Hofstede refers to the issue of social hierarchy as Power Distance indicating the extent to which a society accepts unequal authority. It also is an indirect indicator of the level of paternalism in a respective society.

The former Yugoslavia, Russia, France (considering the French revolution which had as an ideal the breakdown of entrenched social hierarchy) and Poland indicating high levels in Europe (that is considering the 53 countries on the list)—these being either Orthodox or Catholic nations. Austria on the other end is an overwhelmingly Catholic country displaying the lowest PDI. This is followed by Israel, while Arab countries in general having very high rankings. Countries with of the highest levels of PDI, Guatemala, Venezuela, Panama, the Philippines, and Mexico are indeed predominantly Catholic. This, however, is contrasted with Costa Rica which has one of the lowest PDI's.

What is interesting in the case of Austria and Costa Rica is their particular historical context and very low levels of strict religious adherence. In the case of Austria there are very few practicing members with a particular history where Austria was primarily Protestant before the Habsburg Empire. Costa Rica on the other hand had historically always been more secular than its neighbours.

Although in Europe Catholic nations on average have a much higher Power Distance Index than Protestant nations, Orthodox nations by far have the highest levels.

What is revealing, is that Belgium share strong cultural dimensions with Spain than The Netherlands with whom it has strong historical relations with, indicates that religion strongly influences the cultural orientation of a nation.

_________________

The IBC article summarizes the influences of various worldviews on cultural dimensions as follows: Atheist-=Power Distance, Hindu=Power Distance; Muslim=Power Distance; Buddhist=Uncertainty Avoidance; Catholic=Uncertainty Avoidance; Jewish=Uncertainty Avoidance; Non-Catholic Christian=Individualism.

Uncertainty Avoidance and Faith

The modern history of economic theory is a tale of evasions of reality. – [Thomas Balogh]

Another interesting finding from the NBED study is that Catholicism also decreases risk aversion. This however completely contradicts Hofstede's global study.

He refers to the avoidance of risk as Uncertainty Avoidance. Cultures high in Uncertainty Avoidance are risk averse, minimizing their exposure to risk through mechanisms such as laws, religion or customs. As Hofstede points out, cultures with high Uncertainty Avoidance have the attitude that "There can only be one Truth and we have it". This attitude being the very antithesis of one required for critical thinking.

What is apparent is that Uncertainty Avoidance seems to be overwhelmingly religiously influenced.

Of the 53 countries studied globally, Greece has the highest Uncertainty Avoidance followed by Portugal. Other European countries in the top ten in order of ranking are Belgium, the former Yugoslavia, Spain and France. Notably these are overwhelmingly either Catholic or Orthodox nations. With the exception of one, Japan, the remaining countries in the top 15—Guatemala, Peru, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica—are all Catholic. No Protestant country is in the top thirty (the date I referenced did not include any nations of the former Soviet Union). While France and Belgium are secular, what is revealing is that its culture is still significantly informed by a residual religious mentality. v

Muslim countries also have a reasonably lower level of Uncertainty Avoidance than Catholic nations, though considerably higher than Protestant nations. This being in line with the Muslim view on faith encapsulated by the Arab saying.

Pray to Allah, but tie your camel anyway.

It indicating that, notwithstanding the all-important role prayer plays in Muslim practice, that a premium is placed on personal responsibility and action.

What cannot be argued away is that a distinct link is evident by the incidence of Catholic and Orthodox countries in the highest end of the scale—93%. In other words, based on the practical unfolding, Catholics should in truth be the most risk averse demographic on the planet.

How does one reconcile this paradox as Uncertainty Avoidance is ordinarily synonymous with risk averseness?

Firstly, the extent of the debt accumulated by the countries at the center of the European Crisis, by implication, certainly does indicate a low aversion to risk. So this in itself backs up the NBER contention despite Hofstede's findings of Uncertainty Avoidance on the ground. And thus if the common thread is a religious one, the propensity for risk must have some religious origin. My view is that it likely emanates from the general Christian view of faith encapsulated in the verse in below.

Faith is the confident assurance that something we want is going to happen. It is the certainty that what we hope for is waiting for us, even though we cannot see it up ahead. [Hebrews 11 verse 1]

As discussed in A Question of Faith, in this view faith and hope stands on their own, no personal intervention is required. If you have such a worldview, you do not need anything more than deep unquestioning faith and a longing hope to achieve your wants and desires.

This is contrasted to the Hindu view which views faith as follows.

Everyone has a particular type of faith, regardless of what he is. But his faith is considered good, passionate, or ignorant, according to the nature he has acquired... Faith originally comes out of the mode of goodness. One's faith may be in a demigod, or in some created God or some mental concoction. One's strong faith is supposed to be productive of works of material goodness... We find different types of faith in this world, and there are different types of religions due to different types of faith. The real principle of religious faith is situated in the mode of pure goodness, but because the heart is tainted we find different types of religious principles. [Bhagavad-Gita as it is, Chapter 17, verse 3]

This pragmatic and less esoteric view of faith perhaps also indicates why India has a relatively low Uncertainty Avoidance index. What is important to reflect on is that "one's strong faith is supposed to be productive of works of material goodness". From this one can infer that faith is connected to our respective acts of goodness, and certaintly not in a esoteric force or mental creation who are to orchastrate positive circumstances in our lives. In the verse, the influence of illusion on one's faith is considered synonomous with darkness. Thus that faith derived from illusion is considered as a signficant contaminent on faith that is "productive of material goodness".

To make sense of how a nation's perspective on faith can influence its social and economic behavior, one should look at Uncertainty Avoidance from another perspective. It is that another way to view a low level of risk avoidance or risk averseness, is that it is reflective of having abundant unconditional faith. This being in line with the previous Christian view. This is because having such unconditional faith is associated with a ubiquitous belief that a future outcome somehow is esoterically assured. And in the case of the religious, it is accomplished by some or other esoteric as opposed to practical means.

Thus it may well be that the decreased risk aversion observed by the NBED group may only be psychological. To put it another way, one's risk averseness may not necessarily be reflective of objective circumstances, but rather a factor of religiously instilled hope as discussed in The Pathology of Hope.

However, in the actual confronting of uncertainty there may indeed be a reluctance to act on the part of a person having such a strong faith. Particularly if the action required is contrary to one's strong religiously inspired hopes for a brighter ideal. This is because in their worldview there is no such thing as uncertainty to begin with as everything is in God's control. But what is more, that man has relatively little power to intervene in the divine scheme. Thus that the enduring belief in the desired outcome and actions that would appease or entice the esoteric power, is more likely to ensure the desired ideal, than any proactive human intervention is likely to do.

It is important to bear in mind that this is not a mutually exclusive proposition. For instance Ireland—the only noticeable outlier—is a Catholic country with reasonably low Uncertainty Avoidance. To appreciate this distinction one must yet again look at the particular historical context of Irish Catholicism which had largely been influenced by Irish Protestantism. For this reason all their cultural dimensions are closely related to the UK as a whole.

Italy too has a somewhat lower Uncertainty Avoidance ranking than the average Catholic nation albeit significantly more than others. One must be cognizant thought that it is not a linear proposition as too low a Power Distance index can be socially detrimental as well. Incidentally Jamaica, a country with a great many socio-economic problems, is the 2nd lowest Uncertainty Avoidance nation. However, Singapore, one of the worlds most advanced and socially advanced nations, is the lowest.

In the context of this discussion, what Uncertainty Avoidance is indicative of is a developed (not innate) incapacity by individuals or a nation to decisively deal with situations of distress and uncertainty. For instance in the case of the economic crisis a country such as Ireland is more likely to swallow the bitter medicine of austerity and reform in order to transform for the better or to deal with impending distress. On the other hand a country with very high Uncertainty Avoidance is likely to oust the person or party attempting to do so as Greece had done.

The latest example being an  Irish referendum endorsing the European Union Fiscal Pact, in other words the Irish people voting in favor of continued austerity. Again, this juxtaposing  the Greek election where the electorate voted in a party without a single member ever being in government. This at such a crucial juncture where the consequence in all likelihood would be that they had chosen to exacerbate their considerable troubles even further.

What it therefore suggests is that countries with a high level of Uncertainty Avoidance also appear to have a low tolerance for collective social pain, and that this intolerance appears to be a factor of the peculiar brand of religion practiced in the respective society.

Because views such as The Secret does not have the same social and moral philosophical foundation Catholicism and Orthodoxy have, it cannot in any way be compared to them. However, with regards to the issue of unconditional faith and the esoteric manifestation of the object of our faith, there clearly is a significant convergence.

In other words, when faced with uncertainty, those with such views may feel it sufficient merely to pray to God or to evoke the powers of "The Universe", than to act in a practical and concerted manner. That is, in circumstances of crisis or uncertainty, those in very high uncertainty avoiding countries are more likely to have a subliminal and ubiquitous belief that God or some or other esoteric force will come to save the day. And that it is this unconscious belief system—the hope that a miracle of some sorts will somehow come to one's rescue—that results in social paralysis during such times.

Consequently one can translate Uncertainty Avoidance quite literally to imply a diminished capacity to take responsibility when circumstances or prospects are indeterminate. Thus that Uncertainty Avoidance may very well be an indicator of a person's or a nation's propensity for delusion and denial when confronted with a difficult and prolonged challenge.

If anything, this reinforces the initial assertion that religious belief may well be at the heart of the current intractable economic crisis.

_______________________________

The only other nation in the top ten for high Uncertainty Avoidance is Japan—incidentally the most indebted nation ahead of Greece. This incidentally is a factor attributed for their great success up to now, specifically the Japanese propensity for hard work, but has become problematic as it is also an indicator of their ability to adapt. Japan's index of 92 (7th on the scale) is contrasted with that of Italy (75), Germany (65), South Africa (49), the United States (46), India (40), Great Britain (35), China (30), Denmark (23) and Singapore (8, the lowest index). As indicated before, the highest is Greece at 112.

While Japan, an incredibly stoic nation, cannot in any way be viewed as a nation that cannot tolerate pain, what is apparent is that they do appear to have propensity for bungling crises.

The particular cases in point firstly is the manner with which they dealt with the Fukushima crisis, where there was a continued failure to act decisively which exacerbated the extent of the eventual outfall of the disaster.

Another is the failure to address the fallout of the  Japanese Economic Crisis in the 90's. This is coupled with the  perpetual political morass they appear to have remained in since the crisis ensued. Japan has had 7 prime ministers in 7 years, none of them lasting long enough to make a meaningful difference.

The other is the number of high profile  corporate crises' over the past two years. The main ones being the Toyota safety crisis, the  Olympus accounting fraud crisis and the difficulty  Sony has had in adapting to the changing technology landscape.

The  International Business Center article referred to before points to a very high correlation in Uncertainty Avoidance dimensions between the Shinto and Buddhist views practiced in Japan, and Catholicism. With regard to Buddhism and Shintoism it found that: "Due to the close approximation of Buddhist and Shinto societies, these have been combined for this study. These countries have the closest correlation with Hofstede's Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI), which is the same with Catholic countries. In the countries that have over 50% of their populations practicing the Catholic religion we found the primary correlating Dimension to be Uncertainty Avoidance (UAI). There were only two countries out of twenty-three that did diverge from this correlation, Ireland and the Philippines".

Protestantism and Social Justice

We might come closer to balancing the Budget if all of us lived closer to the Commandments and the Golden Rule. – [Ronald Reagan]

Another interesting anomalous observation from Hofstede's data is that Power Distance (the extent to which a society accepts unequal authority) is highest in former as well as current communist countries. This is against countries scoring high in individualism such as the Scandinavian countries, Britain, New Zealand, Canada and Australia (with the highest individualism index) notwithstanding having a very high egalitarian social ethos. In practice it turns out that high individualism is associated with lower levels of nepotism and greater respect for political freedom and civil rights. vi

The abstract from an article titled The Role of Protestantism in Democratic Consolidation Among Transitional States is useful to consider in this regard.

Previous studies have examined the causal link between Protestantism and democratization, primarily in shaping a nation-state's cultural ethos and its tendency to affect the outcome of democratic politics. Historically, Protestantism has also been linked to generating a political culture that promotes individualism, tolerance, the pluralism of ideas, and civic associationalism. Recent empirical evidence also shows how Protestant countries are more likely to be democratic compared to largely Islamic and Catholic states. Drawing from established cultural theories, the author empirically tests the argument whether or not transitional states with larger Protestant populations are more likely to strengthen their democracies. Findings indicate that transitional states that have higher Protestant populations are more likely to have higher levels of voice and accountability, political stability, citizenship empowerment, and civil society pluralism. The author contends that transitional states with higher Protestant populations are more likely to consolidate their democracies. vii

Thus contrary to what one may expect, communism appears to foster a sense of social inequality which is in complete contrast to its ideal. What has evolved is that Protestantism in Europe, Canada and Australia has become largely secularized. This, however, is contrasted with the United States which, as mentioned before, is one of the most unequal societies in the world. The distinct difference being that in these societies there is a high level of trust in government and a strong willingness by the wealthy to pay relatively high levels of tax. This being the very opposite in the United States.

Clearly, therefore, there is a distinct difference in the social psychology of the US that has gone on a very different religious path. This is because their Protestantism is indeed significantly different from the more liberal practice in Europe, Australia, and Canada. In large part it is represented by the Bible Belt variety, Prosperity Theology and Evangelical Christianity. European Protestantism being more in-line with mainline American Protestantism which stresses social justice and personal salvation through endeavors that contributes to society as its primary tenets.

Other views such Jehovah's Witness, Scientology, New Ageism, Seventh Day Adventists, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints have also become part of the greater American religious fabric. Many Christian views indeed developed in reaction to this evolution to increasing Liberalization of Protestantism in the 19th century. New Age views on the other hand have emerged in the mid-20th century largely in reaction to increasing secularization in the West. Again New Ageism found traction in the US while largely waning in other Western nations. The Survivalists is another grouping which advocates for preparation of the end of the existing social order. Atheism (as opposed to secularization) also took a peculiar path through rightwing Libertarianism which advocates for the reduction of the state.

The religious smorgasbord has also led to the proliferation of cults. Many merely being money making or political schemes headed by some or other charismatic charlatan or fanatic in the name of a professed religion or political cause. It has also led a degeneration of religious thinking where a significant percentage of the US population hold the disturbing view that  rape is an act of God.

Thus unlike the transition towards greater social liberalization and secularization outside the United States, fundamentalist religious views have become entrenched, and oftentimes militantly so. One of the consequences is that the 18th century Quaker interpretation of the 2nd Amendment and the "right to bear arms" is very different from that viewed through the 21st century Evangelical Christian lens. That is aside from the fact that folks at the time would not have foreseen that a single handheld weapon could fire almost three hundred bone crushing rounds per minute compared to only a single not very lethal round back then. In other words America had become a fundamentally different place from that envisioned by its founding fathers. For this reason this proliferation of religious ideologies has become a largely politically and socially destabilizing factor in the US.

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For more on the Evangelical worldview see the Christiane Amanpour interview with Jerry Falwell.

Orthodoxy and Autocrats

You don't need religion to have morals. If you can't determine right from wrong, then you lack empathy, not religion. — [anonymous]

I know the claim that there may a link between religion and the economic crisis would be a contentious one, and particularly the emphasis on Catholicism and Orthodoxy. As an agnostic I don't have a vested interest in promoting the one view over the other, however, I merely am reporting on the data I've gathered.

It simply is that one cannot deny the relationship between the global incidence of high Uncertainty Avoidance and Power Distance in predominantly Orthodox and Catholic countries. It certainly also is glaring that countries with very high political instability and/or intolerance in Europe are Orthodox nations. What is apparent is that all major Orthodox countries—Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, and previously Georgia—are characterized by very high levels of political intolerance and/or instability.

One observation is that the majority of these Orthodox nations are Slavic, but that non-Orthodox Slavic nations (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia) are significantly more democratic. In fact the major difference between Croats and Serbs appears to be this as they for all-intents-and purposes are ethnically the same. It therefore suggestive that the level of intolerance and political instability may strongly be influenced by the Orthodox religious worldview.

Like Orthodox nations, Islamic nations are also characterized by very high Power Distance and even more political intolerance. An example of the associated psychosis that is planted in the worldview of its leaders is that they often perceive themselves as godlike incarnations.  Mohamed Morsi declaring himself pharaoh of Egypt being a particular case in point. The other is  Vladimir Putin behaving as if he is a tsar. What is telling however is that the general populous are not particularly perturbed by this.

It is also peculiar that outlier Catholic nations with low Power Distance such as Costa Rica and Austria, had been significantly more secular than other staunchly Catholic nations. While one can argue that Austria simply is showing cultural dimensions of its Germanic ethnicity, the same cannot be said for Costa Rica. It being the true outlier in having the second lowest Power Distance Index in the world.

Costa Rica being the one incidence strongly indicating that a differing religious perspective can make all the difference to a country's economic, social and political outlook. Why this is remarkable is that Latin American countries have historically had of the highest average Power Distance Index's in the world, but moreover, that Catholic institutions are all-pervasive throughout the region---that is both socially and politically. Costa Rica's significant deviation from the norm by virtue of its secularism is what is the true revelation, and indeed, the true hope for a better less mentally and psychologically restrictive future.

The similarity between Orthodox Christianity and Orthodox Islam can also largely explain the Srebrenica genocide in Bosnia and the genocides committed by the Islamic state—it being significantly influenced by conservative Wahhabism. This is because Orthodox religious views engender a very stringent conformity where individual exploration and critical thinking is discouraged. In other words it encourages a follower mentality.

Such individuals therefore tend to easily became enamoured by strong charismatic and persuasive individuals and ideologies. A particular example being the almost militant following of Vladimir Putin and the Iranian Ayatollah's. One also tend to loose one's objectivity while one becomes prone to conspiracy thinking.

Although Islam indeed espouses peaceful values, the rise of ISIL and other movements such as Al Shebaab and Boko Haram is in fact a uniquely Islamic problem in modern society. The problem is implicit in the strict doctrine that demands such a strict adherence. It by its nature nurtures cultic thinking. And if the cult supposedly advocates some or other Islamic Ideal promising heavenly redemption for martyring oneself, even if it is heretically so, it becomes a powerful attraction to such an individual.

Another motivator is that one believes one is implicitly better than others because of one's belief. This is generally so in most belief systems, but particularly so in Islam. In my city, Cape Town, Muslims appear duty bound to assist fellow Muslims before anyone also. I have personal experience of this having attending a mostly Muslim school. There clearly is a strong brotherhood. In the community this affinity is a very admirable trait, but does engender a subconscious superiority or promote a degree of alienation from other members of society. It also engenders the notion of "the other" or infidel.

Infidel generally applying to anyone who is not a Muslim. To some with a particular view of Islam it also applies to anyone who does not have the same interpretation of the Quran as one's own. And once such an individual is identified such, can be treated with impunity, and depending on the interpretation, can even be raped—see Wikipedia Rape in Islam.

By this I'm not attempting to demonize a particular religion. But, as many are pontificating, that the actions of the Islam State is not a reflection of Islam because it is a religion of peace, to indeed say that it is. This is just as Orthodoxy nurtures Stalin's and Putin's in Russia, and the mentality that fostered the financial crises in Greece.

This is because inherent in any cure is the taking of responsibility for the curse.

The Primacy of Work

Put your heart, mind, intellect and soul even to your smallest acts. This is the secret of success.— [Swami Sivananda]

Bringing this back to the greater discussion of the impact of views such as The Secret, it is important to go back to A Question of Faith. It is that, philosophically, the nature of faith encompasses the fundamental difference between South European (not necessarily North European) and South East Asian (South China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan) philosophies. In South Europe one's sense of good fortune is largely linked to some extraneous or esoteric entity (be it the state, the church, God, family wealth, personal connectedness, social or religious lineage), while in these countries it is primarily connected to the willingness to work.

For instance in the book Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell argues that the mathematical ability of South East Asians are largely a fact of persistence and hard work, and not at all as a consequence of superior intelligence compared to other nationalities. It is also interesting that in the Far East, the divide is the opposite of that in the West. That is, in the East, warmer southern territories have a stronger work ethic than the North.

It is important to add Mongolia to emphasize religion as a factor responsible for the general success of a nation. Before they adopted Buddhism, Mongolia was one of the most efficient enterprising societies, while today they indeed are one of the more economically unproductive in the region. This largely dispelling the idea that climate may largely be responsible for the respective attitudes in Europe, and that the pleasurable environment of the Mediterranean may largely be responsible for the disposition of the South.

He suggests that the associated work ethic is encapsulated by the following Chinese saying.

No one who can rise before dawn three hundred and sixty days a year fails to make their family rich.

Thus one's perceived worth is directly related to thrift and how hard one is prepared to work, and not necessarily the outcome of the work. This concurs with the Indian/Hindu worldview as well.

You have a right to work, but not to the results thereof. Never consider yourself to be the cause of the results of your activities, and never be attached to not doing your duty. [Bhagavad-Gita, Chapter 2, verse 47]

The Protestant Work Ethic (primarily North Western European countries) similarly is "based on the necessity for hard work as a component of a person's calling and worldly success" and is regarded as "a visible sign or result (not a cause) of personal salvation".

It therefore may also give an indication of the relative economic success of these nations. The phenomenal growth of the United States over the past century is also attributable to this, albeit that the central premise of the ethic may well be in decline in modern times. This is evidenced by an increasing emphasis on reward which is synonymous with greed. One reason for this is the increasing influence of views espoused by The Secret and in particular the increasing prominence of Prosperity Theology teaching that "financial blessings is the will of God for Christians". The doctrine teaches that "faith, positive speech, and donations to Christian ministries will always increase one's material wealth". Interestingly, these views are also associated with the more  extreme right-wing fringes of the Republican Party.

What is apparent from the above is that The Secret's gospel is fundamentally no different from that of Prosperity Theology, be it that there is "the Universe" at the center of the former, and God in the latter. Because of the emphasis on the reward and a shift from the implied holiness of the work itself, it must be a consequence that the proliferation and popularization of these views must be responsible for escalating levels of greed, particularly in the United States where these views have emanated. That is regardless of the overall belief orientation of the individual, but that it appears that these views are usurping the Protestant work ethic, which had largely been responsible for their social and economic success.

What is important to take cognizance of is that all prosperity orientated theologies fosters short-term thinking in that the goal of any endeavor inevitably is for the final reward. In other words, money becomes the overwhelming end.

For instance, Germany and the US, the epicenters of the 1929 Depression, had tended towards more prosperity orientated theological views at the turn of the century—New Ageism in the US, and Romantic Idealism in Germany. As suggested in Crashing Hopes: The Great depression, it was the Psychology of Consumption with its unquestioning faith in prosperity that exacerbated the crisis in the 1920's. Again, the essential problem with this orientation is that it fosters short-term thinking, and that the primary purpose of labor, therefore, becomes its outcome.

Existential views on the other hand, such as the Protestant work ethic, fosters finding meaning through work, though in finding meaning in one's existential struggles in general (refer to  Christian Existentialism). Thus it is not necessarily about the salary you bring home at the end of the month. The irony now is that countries where the Protestant work ethic had been the driving force are in fact working fewer hours than others where it had not been a driving influence.

An interesting fact, however, is that the majority grouping in many of the societies indicate no allegiance to any belief orientation, and that the majority of Germans and Swiss are Catholic. It thus is apparent that, while the work ethic of these communities had been influenced by the Protestant work ethic, it had developed to become the national character of the respective country.

The Cardinal Truth

"In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension and also a deep desire for respectability." – [J. K. Galbraith]

Unlike the Protestant view that seeks salvation through one's virtuous deeds, whether it be work or right action, the principal Catholic tenet is that salvation is secured through prayer and faith alone in Jesus Christ.

Nevertheless seeking meaning through one's endeavors is also a principal requirement of Catholic faith and is encapsulated by the four Cardinal virtues of prudence, justice, restraint or temperance, and courage or fortitude. These were first penned by the Greek philosophers, Aristotle and Plato. From a religious point of view, however, these virtues had not been given as much "spiritual" significance as the Protestants had done in encapsulating their work ethic.

Specifically, Catholicism indicates that the  Theological virtues of faith, hope, and love or charity, are paramount, and that these cannot be attained by practicing the cardinal virtues alone. That is, it does not assert the relationship between one's virtuous actions and the potential of receiving heavenly redemption, and therefore, elevating such a requirement to being an all-important spiritual pursuit.

What this emphasis therefore asserts is that love in particular, exists in a vacuum, and that it does not need our directed action. In other words, it is not considered an act of will in which we extend ourselves to another, and that the action in itself is the sincerest expression of that love, and that love not be relegated to just a mere emotion or feeling.

Because of the implicit emphasis Protestantism places on the cardinal virtues, it can generally be equated to Confucianism where similar values have become secularized into South East Asian culture.

 Confucius five virtues for a healthy, harmonious life are:

Ren – the virtue of benevolence, charity, and humanity;

Yi – of honesty and uprightness which can be broken down into:-

Zhong – doing one's best, conscientiousness, loyalty; and

Shù – reciprocity, altruism, consideration for others, and Confucius' early version of the Golden Rule, "what you don't want yourself, don't do to others";

Zhi – knowledge;

Xin – the virtue of faithfulness and integrity; and

Li – correct behavior, or propriety, good manners, politeness, ceremony, worship.

The Catholic Church's emphasis on the theological virtues on the other hand equates it more closely to Buddhism. This, therefore, could also explain the similarities in Uncertainty Avoidance between Catholic and Buddhist nations.

It is because the Church and the Temple had been declared the holders of these "holy" virtues, and by virtue of the power bestowed on the respective institutions, they become the "devine" domain of the principles of these respective faiths to bestow on the faithful flock. For this reason faith, hope, and love are held virtual captive by institutions who advocate that access to God (or good fortune in the case of Japanese Buddhism) can only be gained through it.

The de facto de-emphasis of the cardinal virtues is also crucial in the development of the mindset of the worshiper as the religious tend to respond collectively based on religious decree by their respective anointed leaders. This is particularly the case with Catholics who afford their clerical elders—the Pope in particular—with far greater reverence than Protestants do to theirs. Thus, while the cardinal virtues are deemed of relatively high social importance but not necessarily worthy of heavenly redemption, that is in the mind of the Catholic adherent, it would nevertheless not be regarded as being of any great significance at all in the greater heavenly scheme of things.

However, while the relationship on the virtues of work is implicit in the Catholic tradition, it had received a significant boost from Pope John Paul II. This is encapsulated in a paper by George E. Garvey of the Columbus School of Law titled Work as Key to the Social Question.

Catholic teaching has always placed great emphasis on the value of work and of workers. Particularly since Pope John Paul II published Laborem Exercens, the philosophical and theological foundation for work's exalted position in Catholic thought is quite clear. Work is the way that humans' participate in the Divine task of creation and contribute to the common good. In doing so, the worker enhances his dignity, he becomes more fully human. Work, then, is both a right and a duty. viii

This emphasis on the spiritual importance of work is a controversial view as many Catholics indeed equate it to the Protestant work ethic which is mistakenly touted as being primarily responsible for the rotten underbelly of capitalism, greed. The conventional Catholic view described by Schneider and Barsoux could also explain the tendency by Latin American countries towards Communism. ix And perhaps the pronouncements by Pope John Paul could give some insight into the phenomenal economic rise in recent years by Latin American countries and Poland (the pope's homeland). x

Regardless of whether this may or may not have influenced Brazil's (in particular) or Poland's success, or regardless of whether one's orientation is socialism or capitalism, what is important here in the context of this discussion is the concerted attempt at elevating the role of work by a principal of the Catholic Church. This is opposed to the more traditionally espoused view that unconditional faith be regarded as the preferred means to attain earthly and heavenly outcomes for both the individuals and society as a whole.

How we view reality, ultimately, affects our perception of our respective power to affect the ever-changing ebb-and-flow of the events of our lives. This perception then also affects our respective psychological makeup as well. And crucial in the development to this understanding, is how we view the nature of God. To help one resolve this predicament, consider the following by the last of the Five Good Roman Emperors, Marcus Aurelius.

Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, then they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones.

The  Virtues of Markus Aurelius being:

1. Auctoritas - "Spiritual Authority" - The sense of one's social standing, built up through experience, Pietas, and Industria.

2. Comitas - "Humour" - Ease of manner, courtesy, openness, and friendliness.

3. Clementia - "Mercy" - Mildness and gentleness.

4. Dignitas - "Dignity" - A sense of self-worth, personal pride.

5. Firmitas - "Tenacity" \- Strength of mind, the ability to stick to one's purpose.

6. Frugalitas - "Frugalness" - Economy and simplicity of style, without being miserly.

7. Gravitas - "Gravity" - A sense of the importance of the matter at hand, responsibility and earnestness.

8. Honestas - "Respectability" - The image that one presents as a respectable member of society.

9. Humanitas - "Humanity" \- Refinement, civilization, learning, and being cultured.

10. Industria - "Industriousness" - Hard work.

11. Pietas - "Dutifulness" - More than religious piety; a respect for the natural order socially, politically, and religiously. Includes the ideas of patriotism and devotion to others.

12. Prudentia - "Prudence" - Foresight, wisdom, and personal discretion.

13. Salubritas - "Wholesomeness" - Health and cleanliness.

14. Severitas - "Sternness" - Gravity, self-control.

15. Veritas - "Truthfulness" - Honesty in dealing with others.

When looking at it from a twenty-first century perspective, it is ironic how the Germanic nations—Aurelius' great foe at the time, and who eventually plunged Europe into the  Dark Ages—had become the inheritors of these ancient Roman ethics of greatness. But moreover, that the Roman worldview had for all-intents-and-purposes been reduced to a dependence on faith, hope, and love as their primary foundation for individual and societal success. None of these having even been viewed as being of any great significance, and indeed independent virtues, by Aurelius.

But beyond clearing the all-important philosophical conundrum about the nature and role of God in your own mind, or getting into a debate about which virtues are more important, what is imperative is to realize the following. It is that the Cardinal and Theological virtues should not be viewed as a mutually exclusive proposition.

Perhaps they are of equal importance?

To understand how one's emphasis plays out socially it must be appreciated that in Greece—as in Catholic nations—there would be a greater premium placed on the Theological Virtues. As such a wealthy oil magnate would perceive his riches as being a direct reward from God. Consequently such an individual would not be particularly compelled to pay his taxes or contribute to social causes as one's opulence then is perceived as one's heavenly due. xi

In the final analysis, what other purpose would one's faith and hope serve than to create an unconscious expectation that God would somehow create good fortune in our lives? And if it appears that one is particularly blessed, particularly if one has acquired significant financial means, that it had been as a consequence of one's supposed virtuous conduct, and that one's good fortune had been divinely bestowed? Isn't it simply that hope is a desire for a future outcome, and faith (at least in the Christian tradition,) that this outcome somehow is a fait accompli if one leaves it in the hands of God?

On the other hand if one places a high value on prudence, justice, temperance, and fortitude, one's attitude would be that "I and those that contributed to my success am responsible". One one's sense of codependence also then would have a greater compunction to reasonably contribute to the society which had contributed to that success.

What is paramount for successful living is that the cardinal virtues tend to have a greater impact on social and economic accomplishment. It may well be that the overemphasis on this aspect in secular Western societies may bring, or indeed had brought, their own set of problems as is particularly evident with the increasing levels of greed in corporate America in particular. What, however, is clear to me is that one cannot build anything of great significance if it does not have a solid foundation of concerted disciplined endeavor.

And certainly as much as it may be the foundation of any successful society, that the degree of prudence, justice, temperance and courage with which it engages its affairs are greatly demonstrable of the faith, hope, and love it holds in its heart.
Chapter Five

Freedom and Responsibility

Short-term thinking in Western Democracies

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. – [Thomas Sowell]

While this manuscript started off as a critique of The Secret, now almost four years after the Lehman Brothers collapse, it is apparent is that it ultimately is in large part an analysis of the psycho-philosophical triggers that led to it. And clearly, with the chaos in the Greek elections and JP Morgan Chase losing more than $2 billion in derivative trading the week I wrote this section (20 May 2012), it appears far from being resolved.

The question that I now want to answer is: what truly is at the heart of it?

An economist would readily give an unequivocal economic answer. However, what is clear is that, as much as the cause was economic, what truly resulted in the extent of the decline was a lack of discipline. And specifically, fiscal discipline.

But what any kind of discipline ultimately comes down to is the development of an inner capacity or will to make short-term sacrifices in order to reap long-term rewards. Relating this to the existential theme of this work, it's a capacity to momentary suffer to achieve the ends we want. But moreover, to suffer the existential consequences of our actions. Though for that matter, to suffer any circumstance which may have befallen us even though we may not have brought upon ourselves by our direct or indirect actions.

Interestingly discipline does not necessarily relate to hard work, but rather a state of mind which results in the proverbial "a stitch in time saves nine". For instance the average  Greek may in fact work harder — or in the very least, longer — than the average German, but that a German worker certainly is more productive. In fact statistics show some European countries with the highest growth rates in 2012 such as Finland work the least amount of hours per week. Interestingly the average American  work much longer hours than the average German as well.

What must be born in mind given the dire economic status quo in Europe is that a recession is not a time for austerity, but rather, that government austerity is required during times of an economic boom. Then, since there is no significant associated pain, it is more appropriately referred to as fiscal discipline. By having such an approach, to proverbially fill up the government silos during the seven years of plenty, the excess can by utilized during the lean years which invariably will follow. This is an example followed by Germany in the years leading up to the economic crisis in 2008, and who since then had reaped significant rewards as a result.

In other words, to stimulate the economy, in particular by engaging large scale infrastructure spending projects such as the Hoover Dam and the commissioning of Mount Rushmore in the United States. Consequently governments can become the employer of last resort during times of inevitable recession. In this way ensuring that economic activity is not completely stifled, while at the same time the respective nation—through improved infrastructure—can advance its position during the next phase of growth.

This approach of government saving during boom-times and increased spending during downturns derives from Keynesian Economics. The general principle being that Economic Growth periods are time for government austerity, and that recessionary years are times for stimulus. The approach requires that government use its accumulated reserves to grow an economy back to health during a recession.

It now is argued that this approach is needed to get struggling economies such as Greece back to health and that German taxpayers should foot the bill. This is an approach the then incumbent French president Francois Hollande promised to use to nurse the ailing French economy back to health. However, because of the state of public finances, the new French government had to backtrack and revise their growth prospects, thus indicating that the approach is very difficult to follow through on if there are not sufficient reserves to do so. And in the case of France, they are facing a severe deficit, and their planned increase in taxes to fund this growth appears not to be forthcoming.

France's example shows that armchair economists can easily prescribe cures. For instance it does make economic sense that rich countries in the European Union spread the load in order to make sure the entire Eurozone does not go under. However these governments cannot make unilateral decisions as they are obliged to pander to their respective electorate who feel aggrieved that nations who managed their finances irresponsibly during the growth years now want their citizens to foot the bill. As indicated before, this is the great advantage of the United States that is a fiscal as well as a political Union. The tragedy of Europe is that, unless they indeed accede to bail out their struggling compatriots in a more assertive manner, their respective economies are also at a grave risk as well. Unfortunately such a scenario is highly unlikely unless the rot has spread to them as well, and that they have no other choice but to relent. This, however, may prove to be far too little too late.

Germany being the prime example of this required discipline as they had indeed  engaged a program of austerity during the boom time. This at a time when many of their southernmost neighbors were enjoying the economic party of the previous decade. Consequently their capacity to thrive and even bail out other nations during this time. The important lesson here is that the German electorate had willingly — albeit with some opposition — chosen to go along this part, to rather choose relative temporary hardship, for even greater future prosperity. To use an expression that characterizes Europe's failure to decisively deal with their current crisis: they chose not to "kick the can down the road".

China too is a very good example where their actions tend to be guided by five to twenty year plans. The important distinction between the two, however, is that these plans are imposed by a dictatorial regime, while the German populous had willingly elected to sacrifice in favor of a long-term vision for their society.

On the other hand Greece—ironically the birthplace of democracy—being the ultimate example of how the political process had failed to deliver for its people and how wealth was squandered during times of relative "plenty". It must be stressed that the plenty in the case of Greece was not based on true wealth, but borrowed money, specifically from France and that this in large part is the cause of Frances current economic woes due to their exposure to Greek debt.

This attitude of enjoying the spoils of prosperity—albeit perceived prosperity—though is no different to that currently prevalent in America. However the US's main reprieve is that the Dollar is currently the world reserve currency, so they could literally print their way out of their own crisis. That is bearing in mind that the genesis of the European crisis was in the US. This temporary reprieve though being at a significant future tradeoff, mounting national debt with the increasing economic and political influence of China, the de facto lender, being a direct consequence.

This is because, when considering the economics of stimulus, China for all-intents-and-purposes had indeed bailed out the US. By this action the US essentially selling their soul for a handful of silver coins, albeit that they had absolutely no choice to do otherwise. This is because America, and for that matter the rest of the world, would still have wallowed in a very severe and desperate depression if they hadn't done so.

Printing money, unfortunately, being a luxury the Greeks do not have. Notwithstanding whether they could've, they would truly not have been able to do so even if they had their own currency (previously the Drachma) as this would cause escalating inflation. This in turn would lead to even greater debt and far greater uncertainty, and certainly without the option of a future German bailout.

The inevitable consequence of previous bad political decisions, however, is that Greeks are now obliged to face the dire consequences of their actions, but moreover, their government's inaction to stock up for leaner years. Notably this is a position the  Germans too had found themselves in during The Great Depression and perhaps explains the Germans' current resolve.

Notably it's not necessarily ordinary Greeks who had lived lavishly during the more affluent years, but rather, the political and social elite. That it indeed was allowed to happen is nonetheless indicative of the greater psyche of the nation in that the greater populous had been far too eager to elect candidates promising the world, than to collectively resolve to create a better future reality for themselves and their children. Thus to sooner and more willingly swallow the bitter pill of austerity, rather than to be forced to do so by bitter circumstance as they are now obliged to do. This too having been the case in Italy for many years and the legacy left by Silvio Berlusconi, albeit that Italy in very quick time managed to get its financial house in  reasonable repair under the unelected leadership of Mario Monti.

Perhaps I'm being far too harsh on the average Greek as a great many have accepted a very unenviable situation with great resolve and dignity. However, despite their apparent willingness to make the necessary sacrifices, their predicament will yet be perpetuated by a new crisis which now certainly will engulf them as a consequence of the inconclusiveness of their latest round of elections and the potential consequences of a far-leftist government taking office.

It all points to Greece, yet again, scoring a massive collective own goal at a time when the whole world can ill afford more bad news.

_______________________________

Also refer to Fareed Zakaria's take on Austerity:  Is democracy part of Europe's economic problems?

Government is the Enemy?

And so, my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world, ask not what America will do for you, but what, together, we can do for the freedom of man. – [John F. Kennedy]

As an outside observer of the 2012 US elections I found some of the rhetoric on the right incredibly muddied and confusing. Or at least what their constituency appear to buy from their politicians.

For example the Romney campaign kept on harping on the unemployment rate and that the current US recovery had been a weak one. That is while ignoring the fact that unemployment had been reversed and that the economy is indeed growing. That is besides the fact that there was an ongoing recession, in fact a state of economic crisis, in the world's largest economic block, the European Union.

Another slogan was for decreased taxation and less government regulation. That is while ignoring that weak monetary policy and ineffective regulation had been at the heart of the initial crisis in the first place. Weak tax policy having led to a $1.2 trillion dollar budget deficit which made it far more difficult to implement the necessary fiscal stimulus required during downturns without plummeting a nation further into debt.

To help stimulate economic activity Obama introduced tax cuts to the middle class as well, that is in addition the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy. However these extra tax cuts are considered to be the primary reason for America's current level of debt. The Republican view is that tax cuts would stimulate growth, and thus that this growth would offset the debt. What, however, is ignored is that the debt crisis is systemic, and that the government is the best vehicle to stimulate the economy during deep recessionary periods. This is as iterated by  Keynesian Economics referred to in the previous section.

The GOP's plans for government cut-backs and increased growth by creating conducive conditions for the private sector was more-or-less similar to that attempted by the UK's Conservative Government. This policy, however, did exactly the opposite, driving the UK economy into the deepest recession of all its major partners. This view also completely ignoring Keynes' proven model, that the private sector is not the vehicle for growth during deep economic downturns. This is primarily because investors usually are averse to investing during these times.

Then again, as in the case of the UK, a new government experimenting with and attempting to implement new untested policies may have had far more dire economic consequences than allowing the current programs to run their course.

A more prudent approach to blanket tax cuts and less government would be if one was able to motivate investment in economic activity that results in job creation, perhaps by reducing taxation for such initiatives. A plan that the Republicans had thwarted. That is instead of the morally reprehensible act of blanket tax deductions for the rich in the hope that they will invest meaningfully in the economy. Why this is morally reprehensible is that it reduces those with significant financial means to being mere sociopathic moneygrubbers motivated only to eke out every morsel for themselves; having no moral responsibility to contribute to the greater social good.

But more importantly from a purely economic point of view, it is that those with significant resources tend to be disinterested in investing during recessionary times. Rather, preferring to put their money in gold and other less risky investments. This is as opposed to the state which is obliged to be more concerted and directed with every dollar spent to resurrect the greater society's economic prospects. .

Tax cuts, however, being the Republican mantra. By this it is assumed that the economy will magically restart itself by putting even more money in the hands of the rich. That is aside from ignoring other interrelated factors such as the crisis in Europe. This view also ignores that the greatest contributors to productive investment are not the rich but the middle class and the blue-collar work-force who, through their pension and 41K contributions, invest in businesses. That is while the rich more-often-than-not spends their money on supporting lavish lifestyles. Here the issue is that of wealth creation by investing in productive social and commercial ventures as exemplified by Warren Buffet versus wealth accumulation which appears to be the motivation of a great many others. And in particular, it appears, those who are heavily invested in banking. That is aside from the fact that banks do indeed serve a significant social purpose but because of recent practices have become the very symbol of greed, and the very cause of the great recession.

The reason the view on decreasing taxation has such traction (given that close the population voted for the GOP using it as their primary election ticket), however, is because there exists a prevailing irrational belief amongst a great many social conservatives in the United States that the government is the enemy. A view that appears to be unique to the US where unadulterated capitalism is regarded as the ideal where money or capital is the end in itself, not the means lubricating the greater commercial machine. And underlying this view is the notion of the American dream which in modern times promotes the myth that every citizen, too, can become fabulously rich.

In the final analysis a comment by a political analyst I heard on a television debate sums the government conundrum up best.

It's not the size of government that is the problem, but who it serves—vested commercial intests andselctive political interest groups, or the society at large.

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An example of the power of ordinary investors to influence society is how the  California State Teachers' Retirement System persuaded their investment company to divest the 41K contributions from the company who made the Bushmaster assault weapon that was used in the Sandy Hook Massacre.

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To get a perspective on the anti-government sentiment in the US see Piers Morgan interview with Alex Jones. Also refer to  The US has Tax Cut its way into Debt and  Fareed's Take: What will grow the Economy.

Broken Dream

Freedom is in danger of degenerating to mere arbitrariness unless it is lived in terms of responsible-ness.— [Viktor E. Frankl]

What is interesting in the context of the previous section is that research has found that the US in the days of the founding fathers was once considered the most egalitarian society, and that its foundation was built on egalitarian ideals. This is contrasted with today, where America indeed is now  one of the most unequal. Incidentally, Obama being a redistributor being one of Romney's critical touts.

What is misleading about egalitarianism is not that there is no rich or poor. Rather that there is a reasonable attempt at leveling the playing fields to ensure that relatively equal opportunity to a good education, healthcare and basic social services. This, though, is only possible when a well-structured tax and social contribution ethic exists. It requires citizens have a sense of duty to contribute a greater share to the wellbeing of their society. In doing so enabling their government acts as a social leveler of sorts.

Having a sense of equality and fairness has always been an aspired to virtue by great religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam in particular, but also through the virtues of Aurelius and Confucius—refer to Cardinal Truth). And since the French revolution with "liberté (freedom), égalité (equality), fraternité (brotherhood)" having been the logo of the French Republic, by nations, and by the US founding fathers in particular. xii

Why this ethic had been reversed in the United States to be replaced by an apparently pervasive greed, while the opposite development had taken place in Europe, is a great social mystery. A New York Times article perhaps sheds some light on why this may be so.

Unlike Europeans, the thinking goes, most Americans are confident that they are "soon to be rich." As a result, the conventional wisdom has it, Americans in the middle look up to their 1 percent and are loath to tax them.xiii

This is at the core of this manuscript and the reference to Mammon (previous name).

Perhaps, then, the American Dream is the real problem?

That somehow a great many, if not the majority, of Americans hold the subliminal belief that they too can acquire ostentatious wealth. That is instead of having nobler ideals such as a dream of a society where everyone indeed has an equal chance at success; and that the definition thereof be significantly altered from that of mere accumulation or other vain and egoistic pursuits.

Therefore the real problem with the dream is not the notion itself, but that has degenerated to an infantile hope or desire they, by some miracle, too will live the life of a rock star, or to achieve celebrity fame and fortune, or to be a billionaire businessman. Instead of having a deep sense of conviction driving one to live ones best life in all the areas one is reasonably endowed with. And that may well include striving to earn the best income one can to affect good in one's own life as well as in others. Perhaps, since it is no different to their interpretation of one of the primary slogans of the nation, there had been such an attraction to the ideology of The Secret. It, perhaps, also explains why the electorate may yet vote for a candidate who clearly expressed that he views half of the nation as pariahs feeding off the other half.

What is very revealing about US society nowadays is that it's most vociferous about an outdated right, the right to bear arms. That is instead of striving to establish a fair and socially responsible society; one that has become the ideal of most other first world and aspiring nations. And certainly at the time of the nation's founding an egalitarian society not based on aristocracy, but enabled by a socially responsible government was the true revolutionary American idea that is as opposed to a government that promotes narrow vested economic interests as had been the case in the recent past, and one that the far-right threatens to return the US to.

Instead these interests appear intent on indefinitely endorsing a primitive "right" to carry arms. By this I'm not arguing against anyone acquiring a firearm if an individual meets the necessary legal and psychological criteria and can prove they are able to use it responsibly. Rather that it in good conscience should not be viewed as an inalienable right as the right to human dignity, for instance, is. Moreover such a right certainly had been appropriate in the dangerous frontier existence of the eighteenth century when it was formulated, but one that definitely ought to be an outdated one for modern American times. Indeed most societies who used to have a similar need for such protection—Australia, Canada, South Africa, Argentina, Guatemala, Turkey, and indeed, with the exception of Yemen, Afghanistan, Syria and a few others—have significantly evolved in this regard.

Ironically, it is also so that most people in the US are  killed either by their own weapon or because they or their loved ones possess one. That is because of suicides or accidents or by the hands of a loved one, than killing someone else in self-defense.

The popular rhetoric used by those promoting the proliferation of guns being "It's not guns that kill people, people kill people". What is ignored by this simplistic catchphrase is that a gun—once acquired—is so simple and effective at killing, and indeed can be used at a mere impulse. That is as opposed to a bomb which requires knowledge and forethought to make. Or stabbing which needs some significant physical exertion, and because of the gruesome action required in itself being a deterrent. Actioning a gun merely requiring a mere flick of a finger.

This brief interlude on American gun culture is done not to debate the issue but to emphasize the overall point. It being that the right to carry arms; the tolerance of social inequality; and that government is the enemy; predominates amongst a significant sector of American society, and specifically the right. These views being some of the many irrational views these communities vociferously appear to support with an almost irrational religious passion.

It also is suggestive that: if the zeal with which the members of a particular society wishes to arm itself in self-defense is an indicator of its lack of civilization (or civility), then the US—despite its technological sophistication— must be ranked the most socially primitive society on earth.

And based on such a metric, tribal Yemen would follow a very distant second.

Alarmingly, the zeal with which these counter-logical views have exclusively manifested in one supposedly advanced nation—and indeed the most militarily powerful one in the world—is very disconcerting for me watching this unfold from a distance. This leads back the greater discussion on belief and mass indoctrination in Scourge I, and how it is possible that individuals are persuaded to defend views that for all intents and purposes are against their own best interest.

But moreover, how prevailing subconscious religious beliefs additionally shapes the economic and social landscape of a society as a collective.

That is aside from the fact that the majority of Americans do not directly have these attitudes, but as it was with Hitler's Germany, that the considerably more vocal zealous minority seems bent on having it all their own way.

Fortunately this time around they didn't. And that there indeed is great hope that the most powerful democracy on earth will emerge from this crisis—it is hoped—a profoundly enriched nation.

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Also refer to  The Reproduction of Privilege, nytimes.com.

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Although I'm critical of Romney in this section, the fact that Romney had been selected as a GOP candidate is a positive indicator for America's future. This is primarily because Romney probably was the most centrist candidate the Republican Party could have chosen. The implication is that the Tea Party and right wing politics in the final analysis does not hold much sway in the minds of the US electorate. Indeed my view is that, given the demographics of the electorate and the preference of young voters in particular, the GOP needs to become considerably more moderate for it to have a chance in future elections. That is bar the economic and geopolitical changes dramatically to favor the hawks in the next election. The 2012 elections therefore may well prove to be a watershed election for the US, and the world as a whole.

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A gruesome case in point of those killed by their own guns being the massacre at Sandy Hook in Connecticut, where Adam Lanza shot his own mother as well as 26 others with her own arsenal of lethal weaponry. Also refer to  Carrying a gun increases risk of getting shot and killed.

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The  US government census shows that two-thirds of murders in the US were committed with guns. This is five times more than homicides committed with knives or other sharp objects. US stabbings are in line with that in the UK but gun deaths are  forty times higher in the US. The  murder rate in the US on the whole is 4 times higher than the UK, the difference being almost exclusively attributed to guns. Of the  more than thirty thousand gun deaths in the US, only 36% were homicides, with a significant percentage of that being perpetrated by a close acquaintance or loved one or some someone you may know.

Also refer to  Mythbusting: Israel and Switzerland are not gun toting utopias.

Forging a New Future

It turns out that advancing equal opportunity and economic empowerment is both morally right and good economics, because discrimination, poverty and ignorance restrict growth, while investments in education, infrastructure and scientific and technological research increase it, creating more good jobs and new wealth for all of us.— [William J. Clinton]

While the National Bureau of Economic Development findings and Hofstede cultural dimensions strongly suggests potential religious influences on economic and social behavior, and indeed can allude to the underlying causes of the European economic crisis, one however cannot make any definitive conclusions. Nevertheless the distinct correlation between high Uncertainty Avoidance and nations such as Greece, Portugal and Spain's continuing to struggle with a perpetual economic crisis, cannot be ignored.

What is important here is not that mainline Protestantism is better than Catholicism or otherwise. For instance I'm vehemently opposed to rigidly applied puritan Calvinism as I had personally experienced in Apartheid South Africa.

Rather, what must be emphasized is the connection between work and meaning which is apparent in the Protestant work ethic, and how this appear to have aided nations with this view. What is important, therefore, is that the ethic evolve beyond its religious prescriptiveness. In other words, that it be secularized as indeed is the case in societies where it originally emanated. What is also important to consider is that, even in secular states that previously were dominated by Catholicism, vestiges of the religious mindset had become largely entrenched. For instance Power Distance and Uncertainty Avoidance in Belgium and France still remain strong. It therefore is indicative of how the basic tenets of any society's belief have a consequence on their effectiveness, but moreover, on their respective mentalities as well.

By now you must be thinking that I'm advocating a very a harsh stoic philosophy. What should however be appreciated is that a positive work ethic should not necessarily be about hard work or the amount of time one dedicates to doing one's chores. Rather, it should be about one's attitude towards work and the ability to make sacrifices towards long-term goals. And indeed, that one's future becomes less demanding on our time and energy.

Again, what it comes down to is discipline. Specifically, it has to do with the meaning derived from one's chosen vocation. For instance one may spend many hours at work to accrue a wage and thus that the motivation is to provide a mere means to survive. In this case one's motivation would be rather basic on  Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. This certainly appearing to be the case in Greece with the statistics indicate the great many hours the average Greek work. Again, in an OECD report Greece is only surpassed by Korea on the most hours worked per year.

This though is in line with the profile of nations with high levels of Uncertainty Avoidance. According to Hofstede a peculiar feature is that nations with high ratings have an inner need to be busy and have a greater propensity for hard work. This being one strategy they employ to avoid uncertainty. The other being a strong reliance on religious and state institutions.

On the other hand if the quality of the outcome of one's labor is the prerogative, efficiency in the case of Germany, one may indeed spend less time on the actual labor, but more an aspect that would ensure its optimal conclusion. Again, to juxtapose Greece, the average German works considerably fewer hours per week, but is significantly more productive.

Considering Maslow's Hierarchy, when one finds one's work meaningful, the level of motivation is akin to the highest level of the human experience, that of self-actualization. Work itself then becomes the end of this actualization, not the vehicle to derive at a destination. As Pope John Paul indicated.

Work is the way that humans' participate in the Divine task of creation and contribute to the common good. In doing so, the worker enhances his dignity, he becomes more fully human.

Thus, depending on one's attitude towards what one does for a living, one can have a sense of fulfillment regardless of whether one is responsible for sweeping the streets or whether one is responsible for sending a rocket into outer space. What gets us there is deriving a sense of meaning in our chosen vocation.

Given the dramatic changing economic landscape and the phenomenal rise of Eastern nations, it is imperative that the West come to terms with the not so obvious underlying cause of their ongoing debilitating crisis. And again, as much as it appears to be economic, it well may be about essential belief, and specifically about the primacy of work in the mind of a great many Europeans. One can almost conclude—at least based on this analysis—that the European economic crisis may be more one of faith than economics per se. The alternative to dealing with its underlying cause being a resignation that many European economies is just not vital enough to be competitive on the new global economic stage. And that ultimately, as a collective, Europe will also struggle to maintain its current global prominence.

Having delved into some social pathologies resulting from religious thinking, it is useful for one's own development to delve into the factors that may be behind the success of many far Eastern nations. Specifically Hofstede indicates that the growth of the "South Eastern Tigers" can be ascribed to Confucian Dynamism which includes values of persistence, thrift, well-defined social roles, and a long-term, future orientation (refer to Cultural Dimensions of China). xiv

These then inform their peculiar notion of faith as well. Amongst successful East Asian nations it is that faith is intrinsically linked to that view that one's dedicated action and concerted endeavor informs success, and that the quality of one's attempt or action is what one must have faith in, not the outcome is guaranteed. What is required is not to throw the baby out with the bath water as many Eastern values are incongruent with the West. Rather, what is required is a critical assessment of what works, and what doesn't. And in particular, to become aware of limited belief systems, and limited ways of thinking.

From a Western perspective what is apparent is that the nature of their faith may in fact be at the heart of the problem among a great many nations. This is as evidenced in Western nations with very high Uncertainty Avoidance, and that there may be too high a reliance on esoteric powers to do their bidding. To overcome this, these nations are obliged to come to terms with and to resolve their orientation towards work. In other words their work ethic must become the all-important focus for their future economic competitiveness and survival. This comes down to reevaluating what is truly the most virtuous virtue that will ensure their social survival in our complex and competitive times.

And as mentioned previously, it is not about how hard or how much we work, but our motivation behind why we do what we do.

This is because the nations of the East clearly have an even stronger, well-constructed, a-religious and socially internalized one. This is evidenced by an even stronger resolve to make long-term sacrifices to achieve social and economic goals than any Western nation had previously done—China being the particular case in point.

Given the prognosis, the fate of the entire Western world is dependent on a changed orientation towards what motivates them. What must be guarded against, therefore, is that prayer and faith become a mere passive pursuit. Thus to have the deluded conviction that no action is required as our wants and desires are fully taken care of by God or some otherworldly force. One's faith then becomes nothing more than an infantile expectation that some or other obscure power is to deliver your ends for you, and that wishful thinking is the only determinant of the "assured" outcome of your fancy.

In the final analysis what it comes down to is having a profound sense of knowing what calls one to action.

In other words, our underlying philosophical view about the importance of work influences the subliminal reasons behind our motivation to do so.

But moreover, the theological primacy of work can be directly equated to non-religious notions of existential suffering, and therefore, one's willingness to sacrifice to achieve a higher end.

It is an acceptance that we do have the power to affect our world for the betterment of ourselves and those around us.

It is in having the faith that, even though we often cannot see or experience the end, and indeed never may, that in our mere attempt to make a difference, we already are changing our world for the better.

That is regardless of what may actually result, and that this attempt is the holiest thing we can ever achieve.

It is a profound sense of knowing that: our ability to answer the call to action, is the reward, and not necessarily the reward itself.
Conclusion

I wrote this section on the 8th of May 2010 as part of my commentary in the Contemplations on The Economy.

From the previous comments I made you may ask why I gave such a bleak prognosis?

That is considering that the main part of the manuscript was written before the 2008 decline and that a pervasive optimism was prevalent at the time.

Well, it's merely that the objective facts were pointing to such an impending dire future, notwithstanding that it well may not come to pass. Making such a bleak prediction also doesn't mean that one should now stop any grand plans. Rather, that one should indeed pursue or plan for it regardless, but whilst doing so, to take cognizance of the very possible worst case scenario. And if you can still stomach it and get all your ducks in a row to come up with a viable plan, regardless, by all means go full steam ahead.

Thus if you can foresee the worst possible scenario, and yet have the determination and resolve to proceed, do it. For this reason simplistic positive thinking as a default cognitive approach is not the optimal or most constructive way to go as it can very well be equated with wishful or delusional thinking, it being a sure recipe for failure during uncertain times as we are experiencing at present.

Warren Buffett once remarked "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful", meaning that he gets very nervous when everyone else gets overly excited, and that he rather makes his boldest moves when everyone else are nervous.

He also said "You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right".

This brings me to the argument in The Writing on the Wall and The Final Straw, that it was simplistic positive thinking that got us into the financial mess we are in the first place. Furthermore, that the book is not about positive or negative thinking per se, rather that we be critical, and that, more often than not, seeking out the possible negatives first is the most crucial way to achieve lasting positive results.

Nurturing a critical thinking capacity, therefore, is the surest way to survive the potential storms which – given the prevailing circumstances – are more than likely yet to come.
Contemplations on the Economy

Below are my contemplations on transpiring events since the Lehman Brothers crash. The dates are not necessarily reflective of actual events that occurred on the respective day. They rather have relevance to the previous discussion as well as the greater philosophy propounded in the book.

September 17, 2008

The latest event at the time of writing this work was the filing for bankruptcy of the 158 year old Lehman Brothers Global Investment Bank on 15 September 2008, the fourth largest investment bank in the world. The other is that Merrill Lynch are under similar pressure, having had to sell a significant portion of its stock to stay afloat, thus technically they also went bankrupt.

In the same week, the world's largest insurer, American Insurance Group (AIG), was taken over by the US Federal Reserve. Other banks and major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Washington Mutual, are also facing a similar prospect.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers having been the first significant event to suggest that the American Sub-Prime Lending Crisis as the events referred to in Paradise Foreclosed became known, is not just a mere blip on the economic radar. In fact it is now regarded as the most ominous economic event since The Great Depression of the 1930's—indeed far worse than any single event that happened then.

These events have officially put the US economy in the Revulsion Stage indicated by Jayati Gosh as a feeding frenzy for liquidity has already begun, and that there now is a complete lack of faith in America's financial institutions. Because of the sheer size of the US economy, this will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the world's capitalist economies.

September 20, 2008

An example of the required attitude that could rescue the situation, is that by 17 September 2008, in order to avert an all-out collapse of the economic system, a number of the world's major central banks have pledged to collectively contribute more than $250 billion to bolster the global economy. This may however prove to be too little too late but is unprecedented as these nations, by taking money from their respective fiscus, are prepared to suffer the potential impact on their own economies. This instead of risking an essentially American made total global collapse.

However, that it was definitely going to come to this should've been reasonably predicted by the powers that be well before it actually had happened. Again in South Africa's case, the lending problem was foreseen in 2004. This resulted in the National Credit Act of 2006 which was implemented to regulate the lending of all financial institutions. Because of this South African Banks appear to be particularly robust compared to American banks. Indeed, South Africa as well as Turkey are the only two non-centralised (as in China) emerging market economies considered to be well bolstered to endure the impact of a global market crash. Indeed no South African bank needed or came close to needing a banking bailout.

The latest development is that the Bush government had planned its own intervention. On 18 September the governor of the Fed indicated that they would guarantee a dollar for every dollar invested in the stock market. This had the obvious short-term effect of buoying financial markets. The downside to this being that it would increase the US budget deficit by $1 trillion a year.

The above being the federal government's most far-reaching intervention in the financial markets since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Again, it being a short-term solution equivalent putting duct tape over a festering wound in order to hide what is underneath. What this is likely to do is exacerbate the problem in the long-term while in the short-term creating the illusion that all is well.

Interestingly, the wording used by Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for The Economic Outlook Group, linking to the previous discussion is.

They did what they had to do... They were facing a Category 5 financial hurricane that really threatened the entire global financial architecture.

However it is important to iterate a previous quote by American President during The Great Depression, Herbert Hoover.

No country can squander itself to prosperity on the ruin of its taxpayers.

Ultimately the American Taxpayers will have to foot the bill for investors' short-sightedness and avarice. This again will only delay the eventual consequences which may very well prove to be a wholly inadequate measure.

Another aspect to Bush's proposal is that significant legislature changes are proposed to deal with the endemic problems in American investment institutions. Again, however, the following words of Herbert Hoover should well be considered.

Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body – the producers and consumers themselves.

What this actually comes down to is that the psychology that caused the problem – i.e. greed – should first be dealt with before any significant headway can be made. One of these is that Wall Street should in fact have felt the pain of their ineptitude and not ordinary American taxpayers. Nevertheless, while this should have been the ideal, the reality is that the two are so inextricably linked: that if Wall Street goes down, American society would go down with it. And so too, much of the world as well.

The dilemma in having allowed the situation to reach the current crisis point, is this. That unless there is indeed an unprecedented level of global cooperation, the only other cure to get America out of its greater morass (the credit crisis coupled with its deficit and rising unemployment) at this stage, is an all-out war that would level the economic playing fields that they again emerge as the global boss.

Interestingly this had already been publicly suggested as a plausible solution. The following quote by Joan Veon of the Woman's International Group, an outright activist against America's participation in world institution, gives an example of the associated rhetoric.

In my June Veon Financial Services, Inc. economic newsletter, I analyzed the financial markets in the United States and concluded that what was needed to get not only the U.S. but the world out of the serious economic situation that it was in was a war. I wrote.

Using debt, it has been the American consumer who has kept world economies moving. At some point our economic foundation is going to crumble. When it unravels, the US will take a very hard and serious hit as never before in our financial history. What could save it? A war. War is above all an economic stimulus. Instead of a regional war, it might be something larger because now the world economy would come to a stand-still. Could it be that this idea is not so far from the truth when you consider the massive debt load of not only the United States, but every country in the world?

This new section is not to suggest that the United States government planned or had any input in the attacks on America. I was discussing in my newsletter the only alternative that the world has to stimulate a global economy based on fiat money and debt. War. I had absolutely no idea it would be on American soil.

The above was from an article titled America at War. Notably it referred to an extract that Veon wrote before 911, long before the sub-prime crisis was even considered. And that those in the know must also have had a view on the future impact of their then already apparent indebtedness (a fraction of what it now is), and the dire circumstances America already was in.

October 10, 2008

By 29 September 2008 the US congress declined the rescue package and world markets went in free-fall taking their single biggest one day hit in over 20 years. However two days later a revised plan was adopted which did bring some initial stability to the markets. It now already is a different world as European banks are also facing the same pressures as American banks, the US bailout merely temporarily preventing the world economy from going into a complete meltdown.

It is also important to bear in mind that these events have very little to do with America's burgeoning current account deficit which now will be significantly worsened, and that this is yet to have an impact. That it will not become a significant factor is largely dependent on the international goodwill which can be maintained, and that lender nations such as China not become overly protectionist of their own national interests.

The problem with this scenario is that there are so many interrelated factors coming to play. At this time any of these potentially could become the final spark that can light an incredibly dry tinder box of circumstances, and that extremely cool unemotional heads are required to deal with it.

The larger problem is that many nations have not factored in the cyclical nature of the economy, in other words they have not planned for a possible recession as South Africa had done. As indicated before two years before the recession they gradually increased interest rates to decrease lending. In their case they purposefully slowed down growth and the availability of credit. As such the country felt the pain of an economic slowdown early, in fact before any other nation, and hence largely took unpopular painful measures to prevent an impending crash. The problem with American society in particular is that such unpleasant measures cannot be readily implemented as they tend to cause a significant level of discontent which has dramatic political repercussions.

As a converse to the South African scenario, America is likely to decrease interest rates even further to re-stimulate the economy and improve banks short-term liquidity. This to improve households' ability to pay their debt, while the exact opposite should have occurred. It being that the greater world economy should have planned for a recession instead of maintaining the incredibly long period of growth. Interest rates being an economy's virtual brakes that slows down economic activity. However now it is too late as such austere measures would virtually grind the entire world economy to a standstill (see Global Economic Crisis: South Africa's Response).

A recent comment I heard from an economic analyst about whether one should be panicking or not, is well worth bearing in mind when one considers the current economic climate.

I always said, as far as the economy is concerned, the best bet is that one should be the first to panic. Now I believe it's well and truly too late, and that we should rather stay put and weather the storm we are currently finding ourselves in.

The above comment was made after global markets, and particularly Asian stocks, took a dramatic plunge on the 9th of October. This highlights an issue which is yet to impact the global economy. That China and India is still planning on maintaining their significant growth of around 9% and more. This in fact being the greater reason a recession cannot occur in America and Europe, as China and India's growth would have a significant draining effect on American and European employment. Notwithstanding that it may still provide short term economic stimulus, given the current situation, India and China wishing to maintain their substantial growth figures is not wise as the market for their goods cannot reasonably sustain an increased level of consumption at this time, and that much greater frugality is called for. That is, unless they became greater consumers themselves.

In fact, the current economic scenario when compared to the events of 1929 is paralleled in a very interesting way. Today America's situation is more reflective of German society at the time considering the pervasive belief orientation, but also the economic circumstances visa-vie its debt resulting from a war; while China and India are more reflective of American society back then considering their increasing levels of production.

A final solution therefore would be that America and Europe do go ahead with measures to stimulate their economies, while the Chinese and Indian economy willingly slow down their own production. And in particular, that China becomes more open to world markets and less protectionistic, in other words, they become more consumptive of global goods. For this reason China and India is at a greater medium to long term risk as their unprecedented growth could implode on them as well.

Thus in the final analysis, what this discussion on the economy comes down to is this: that economic policy should not only be reflective of economics alone, but rather, should be cognisant of the deeper issues relating to the Psychology of Consumption and how it should be curtailed.

To paraphrase the message of an article titled The 'credit crunch' and the Crisis of Meaning by Frank Furedi, University of Kent Sociology Professor, is that the Western world appears to suffer from the fear of suffering. In this instance, this irrational fear making them incapable of timeously responding to potential future calamities. Furedi indicated in the caption of the article.

The key problem today is not so much the banking meltdown, as our inability to understand the threat as a prelude to managing it.

This failure to act having largely been as a consequence of the continued ignoring and/or downplaying of the extent of the problem. It nevertheless is apparent that now, as a knee-jerk reaction to the potentially catastrophic economic events, the short-term economic issues such as the prevention of an imminent recession is being focused on, specifically the lowering of interest rates to again stimulate credit flow. While in fact the avoidance of the immanency of a recession had been the primary cause of the crisis, but now, interestingly, has become the overwhelming obsession. To this Russian president Medvedev correctly intimated, that America wilfully over-inflated the economic bubble as opposed to allowing a recession to be a normal cyclical economic occurrence. Perhaps the hope by the Bush government was that it would hold until after the 2008 election, which unfortunately for him, it did not.

What is patently obvious is that there had been a pervasive reluctance to swallow the bitter pill of economic austerity. That is with the exception of a small nation that was prepared to purposefully slow down its economic growth way in advance. In doing so, to also counter the deeper scourge of wanton consumptiveness which, ultimately, is at the heart of the current crisis.

October 15, 2008

As the world becomes increasingly gripped by fear because of the economic uncertainty (as per CNN article of 14 October, As Economy sinks Officials Fear Violent Solutions and a Yahoo article of the 14th, Fear and Loathing over the Economy Spreads), one must be particularly cautious of the views of conspiracy theorists (the views of Joan Veon quoted previously being a particular example) as they more than likely would exacerbate the growing climate of fear and mistrust. Another example is the following email which I received on the 14th of October which expresses the views of New Age conspiracy theorist, David Icke (of the illuminate conspiracy fame). The heading of the article reads Those Who Ridiculed His Warnings Are Being Forced By Events To Think Again.

China has been incubating for hundreds of years being prepared for its role as a key player in these times we are now experiencing. I was told by an insider many years ago to watch for the emergence of China as an economic and military power because then the action would really start.

Well, here we are.

China's 'economic miracle', based on slave labour that undercuts production costs across the world, has produced a mountain of money which has been used to buy foreign debt. It holds in excess of one trillion dollars' worth of US Treasury bonds (debt) and debt of the US government mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, recently saved from collapse by political intervention.

But even this trillion dollars doesn't nearly tell the full story because it doesn't include Chinese investment in private US corporations and the use by the Chinese government of third parties to hide the extent of its holdings.

Put it all together and China is gaining ever more control of the US economy and it can use this power to destroy what is left of the American financial system. If it sells its massive dollar holdings the value of the 'mighty dollar' will plummet and if its debt is not repaid it can claim American assets, yes government assets, just as a bank forecloses on your house if you don't make the payments.

And the United States is now ten trillion dollars in debt with more being added by the minute. The 'superpower' is essentially bankrupt and at the mercy of its overseas creditors – not least China.

Given that the plan is for a war involving North America, Europe, Russia and China this takes on even greater significance, as does the involvement in the trillion-dollar (open chequebook) 'bail out' of US Treasury Secretary Henry 'Hank' Paulson.

Much of the above are facts with a subtle malicious lie, i.e. that a war is planned. But it is important not to get carried away by the facts either. Most importantly when contemplating the article, the views of anyone who claims that there are reptilian humanoids from outer space planning global domination, should be rejected out of hand, regardless of any grain of truth he purports. Icke too is one of those wacky theorists who also totally appears to believe in what he is advocating. Notably this is unlike The Secret's which is malicious marketing.

Incidentally, Hitler's Zionist world domination conspiracy theory also having been such a whacky theory which otherwise would've been dismissed by the usually sensible German people, but which found the troubled times of the thirties and forties particularly fertile ground to flourish in. It also is noteworthy that Icke is particularly anti-Semitic.

When assessing Icke's extract, it is imperative that we always have an extremely level headed approach. It simply is that the referred to global scenario had been caused by greed. But most notably, not just by greedy bankers and CEOs, but by the collective society as well as prominent business people and officials in elected positions of trust. And if there indeed had been a conspiracy which culminated in the current status quo, it simply was that the powers that be were devious in their wanton pursuit of power and money, in particular, the banks that engaged unscrupulous practices to make their questionable profits and politicians who wanted re-election at all cost.

It also is so that China is indeed on a very definite mission for global economic domination. They certainly making no bones about it as every Chinese has it ingrained in their psyche as a collective mission which they all unequivocally share and participate in and sacrifice for. That they wish to become a world economic powerhouse, though, is their absolute legitimate right, and they certainly have a historic pedigree for it. And without a doubt they are probably the most disciplined nation at this time, with a great majority of the 1.4 billion Chinese speaking with an apparently single collective voice. That is notwithstanding that there is great dissatisfaction amongst many about the disenfranchisement they experience.

While this in itself is something to be extremely frightened about, particularly since China is one of the most dictatorial societies on the planet, it is yet not a conspiracy, but merely a worthy ambition for any nation to strive towards whether they are democratically inclined or otherwise. But the far bigger point to grasp is that America, in their incredible short sightedness (particularly as it pertains to their unbridled consumptiveness), have all but handed over their power to the Chinese on a very convenient silver platter. This could have very well been conspired by the Chinese, and indeed over many decades. The bigger realisation for Americans, however, is that they had been as predictable as the Chinese clearly foresaw. This is because, for as much as another may conspire one's demise, one ultimately cannot take away one's power that easily without one's conscious – or as it is in this case, unconscious – consent.

With regards to the blatant misrepresentations of Icke's, I don't think a war is planned by any nation at this point in time, nor is it imminent when looking at the current political landscape. It merely is a legitimate fear we ought to have given the very dire economic forecast. The circumstances having the potential to create a very dry tinderbox of desperation, or depression, which could very well ignite tensions that could set off a string of events that could lead to what will be a calamitous global war. The precedent for this scenario, as discussed before, having been the events that culminated in the Second World War.

Within the context of the greater discussion, what these ultimately point towards, again, is the prevailing underlying consumerist psychosis, and how this is preventing rational level-headed thinking to prevail. Citing Icke, the example being how an otherwise very competent and intelligent governor of the US Reserve was not able to read the economic indicators signalling the immanency of major banks collapsing (as was done in this work), to rather only act after the fact.

To put it another way, what is transpiring is not truly an economic crisis, but rather an existential one. And at its heart is a pervasive unwillingness to suffer existentially—in other words, to suffer the consequences of the actions that led to it. This will be discussed in the next book.

To move forward the most level-headed approach would be to put short-term national interests aside for the greater global good. This therefore would go a very long way towards bringing forth a new world order of unprecedented global cooperation (an ideal the likes of Veon and Icke, as do most conspiracy theorists and right-wing Republicans, actively crusade against). And if not achieved, would result in a world of unprecedented misery, which, because of our bungling in the darkness of our continued avarice, is yet to be wreaked on humanity. And if so, would be upon us in the not too very distant future given the current prognosis.

November 6, 2008

On the 4th of November 2008, Americans in unprecedented numbers elected Barrack Obama as the 44th American President. What is abundantly apparent is that this is a watershed moment in world history. Not only because Obama is the first African American President, a very significant occurrence considering America's racist past, but that it truly is representative of a new world order that celebrates the notion of the full brotherhood of all humankind.

What is apparent is that Obama drew support from all Americans across previous race, religious, regional, but also political, divides. As such Americans have truly risen above the petty limitations of their past, and to truly embrace a path of change, not only for America alone, but the world at large.

More than anyone else, Obama's message is one of hope for the future. Though it is ironic that in his first public speech, a reflective Obama also made it clear that incredibly challenging times are yet to lie ahead in having to repair the bitter devastation of Bush's excesses. In particular, to resolve the War in Iraq, the financial crisis, and America's tattered international image.

As in The Pathology of Hope, Obama's words emphasising the importance that hope is not a hollow empty wish, but that one build's an inner resolve to face the direness of one's circumstance squarely, with clear conscious intent, and yet with an unwavering resolve that what we have consciously set out to achieve, will become so.

As the title of his memoir, The Audacity of Hope, suggests, that hope is about having a positive vision for an idealised better future notwithstanding the gravity of any circumstance—too dare to hope often in the face of utter despair. Though not merely to have hope for hope's sake, that the world will somehow magically conform to our idle wishes and desires as The Secret in particular suggests.

Interestingly the biggest challenge Obama now faces in having been elected with such expectation and hope, is that many Americans also now believe he will magically fix the severity of their current predicament. That is in merely having elected him. But soon, I'm certain, the sober reality of the challenges ahead will set in, and the gravity of the objective circumstances will again become crushingly apparent—this may very well lead to bitter disillusionment and disappointment in the human limitations of a single, albeit very competent, individual.

Despite the unrealistic wish that one man will save Americans from the consequences of their self-inflicted calamity, what is abundantly apparent is that a new more humble, more responsible, America, and with it, the prospect for a truly positive new world order for all humanity, is already in the making.

November 5, 2009

Exactly one year after his election, opinion polls show Barrack Obama's popularity at only 33%. That is the lowest for any post World War II president one year after winning the election. And this is notwithstanding him winning the Nobel Peace Prize, greatly improving the economic situation, and having turned around the tainted legacy of his predecessor.

January 22, 2010

On 20 January 2010, exactly one year after his inauguration, the Democratic Party lost its senate seat in the state of Massachusetts. What is significant is that it was in one of the democratic strongholds, and one they had held for nearly 60 years. My view is that it was due to complacency in the Obama camp. The primary effect of this being that the Democrats had lost its 60 seat majority in the Senate, now making it near impossible to affect any of its major policy decisions. Popular media reports are now declaring that this is spelling the end of Obama.

May 7, 2010

After significant recovery in world markets over the past year, stock markets around the world, again, dramatically crashed. The Dow Jones having seen its single biggest drop in history yesterday. Although the Dow's very untimely plummet was primarily due to a technical glitch, it coincided with the other more ominous cause, the virtual collapse of the Greek economy and how its failure to meet its economic obligations could potentially impact the Eurozone, and ultimately, the world economy. The primary reason for the economic jitters in the markets is the apparent unwillingness of the Greek population to accept far reaching austerity measures before being given a more than a hundred billion dollar bailout.

The irony being that hope for the future good health of the global financial system is contingent on Greece's ability to fix its financial and political mess. This contingency which will allow it to marginally be able to pay back its financial obligations, ironically, by further increasing their considerable indebtedness. Considering that Greece is notorious for its inability to do so under normal circumstances, while additionally having a history of anarchic social unrest and endemic corruption, it is a dire prospect for the European economy.

A precarious spectre indeed, that the hope of the world is pinned on the cooperation of one of the most unenthusiastic of participants.

What makes matters worse is that the only significant economic green shoots appear to be the result of government stimulus. While this means the stimulus had worked and thus prevented an all-out crash, it should be cautioned that it was financed by taxpayers, but moreover, by debt. Why the Greek crisis is important to consider in this regard, is that it is apparent that world liquidity is beginning to drain and that these packages are not indefinitely sustainable. More ominous, however, is that Britain has an even greater deficit than Greece yet are still in a recession, while they are still to do significant infrastructure building before the 2012 Olympic Games. A healthy scenario would be that the deficit should be at its peak once all infrastructure expenditure was complete. But before it even started there appears to be no room left in the British economy. This compared to South Africa, the host of this year's Football World Cup's, who's budget deficit is about half of the UK's after infrastructure completion. And this is not the end of Britain's woes, added to the mix, the UK will be facing the uncertainty and unpredictability of the first hung parliament in over thirty years.

What the overall scenario suggests is that the bailouts may just have temporarily deferred the true extent of the economic crash, and that the worst may yet come. Nevertheless my view is that this was not an all-out negative as the shock of what may have happened after the Lehman Brothers collapse, could well have left the world in a state of total paralysis and despair. Instead an unprecedented global response had resulted, and that this truly is the most important green shoot we all could've hoped for given the then prevailing circumstances

Nevertheless, a significant portion for the continuing crisis in the global economy was as a lack of a timely response by the Eurozone itself to protect its currency. To exacerbate the potential for global economic carnage, cracks in Europe are appearing as Northern Europe is becoming increasingly right-wing and nationalistic, primarily because of the increasing number of bailouts which since then has included Ireland and Portugal, and fears are that Spain may be next.

What we now have to come to terms with, is that it may well get even worse, and for quite a long time to come, before it will get any better, and that bailing out Greece, again, merely is buying some time.

Alas, suffering the momentary pain to fix its systemic problems appears to be a bitter pill Greece seems unwilling to swallow, thus potentially putting the entire future of the world financial system in dire jeopardy.

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It however is noted that the UK had voted in the Conservative Party on a ticket of austerity, and had had relatively little opposition to cut-backs from the general populace. This showing a significant difference between the attitude of the British against that of the Greeks in this regard.

November, 2010

This section initially was an additional note to the section titled Suffering with Grace.

The following from Poewe's extract is particularly poignant in this regard.

The Germans, like all suffering humankind, had to recognize their true situation and manage their lives in weakness and grace.

The important consideration in the context of this discussion is that the Obama administration had sought to address the financial crisis through financial means, and also by working through global channels in this regard. Unfortunately, because of the depth of the crisis, this has had limited effect, albeit that many of the measures such as quantitative easing (basically the concerted printing of money to increase liquidity) will have negative long-term inflationary consequences. It already has sparked a global currency war (incidentally which China started years ago). Regarding quantitative easing (referred to as QE1 and 2), however, Obama had no other choice given his inherited disposition, and that all his other tools – such as interest rates and the deficit – had been overspent by his predecessor.

Another factor of alarm is that Standard & Poor's (a rating agency monitoring the ability of state and other entities to pay their debt) have also warned that America is likely to default by 2012 on paying its debts; that is unless they act decisively to formulate a plan to do so.

Given current bipartisanship and the bitter infighting to approve a mere less than one percent cut in the deficit (and this almost resulting in the US government shutting down); that tax increases for the wealthy are being fought against; as well as many other obstacles not least of which being the upcoming election; it clearly does not appear an easy road ahead in this regard or that anything significant will be done about the economy until after the elections.

However, given his international standing, and that he has been more successful in negotiating with the Chinese and other stakeholders than his predecessors, Obama would more than likely be the best candidate to eventually steer the country out of the crisis. That is, given the time a second term would afford him to get it all right as the world is not even close to getting the economic system back to health. On the other hand possible future right wing incumbents may well choose to solve the problem by other more coercive or generally less diplomatic means. Thus a "bull in a china shop" approach (a deliberate pun) which the conservatives may favor, may indeed be the final straw that could break the camel's back.

The problem with the current status quo is that this slow pace of what essentially is jobless recovery has reversed much of the support that Obama had had. Unless this is turned around it is looking increasingly likely that he would not serve a second term in office, at least when one judged against the reactivity of the US electorate. The problem with this scenario is that the political status quo is increasingly becoming desperate, to the extent that it is opening the door for wayward radicals. This is because paranoid politics do tend to flourish during times of great uncertainty.

The danger with wayward religious views within this context is not necessarily the views themselves, but those who may seek to exploit the mindset. This is not limited to New Age religions alone as had been the case in Germany (refer to Suffering with Grace). The Tea Party Movement is as great a danger, if not greater, at the moment, though American style Prosperity Christianity of today is no different to the later New Age mentality before the great Depression. Again, it's the mindlessness of the associated worldviews (the mentality of the crowd as Le Bon alluded to) that is the real danger. But moreover, the focus on materialism and therefore the unwillingness to suffer the existential ills that are required to save the day what is absent in western materialistic societies at this time. And this is particularly so in the US at present.

Then again it is argued that Prosperity Theology may indeed be driving, or at least may be exploited in favor of, the political ambitions of the far conservative right. It may also explain why Republicanism may increasingly (at least in their utterances and intractability on issues such as taxation, gay issues and abortion) be representative of a religious movement than a political one.

What must be remembered, however, is that the Nazi founders did not necessarily care about the religion they propagated, but that they saw the mentality of the day could be as easily exploited. The Secret being a particular modern day case in point. And then there's David Icke and his lizard-blooded illuminate conspiracy who had also run for public office. At an even more desperate time he might well win. The general stance of the GOP (the Republican party) favoring deregulation and tax cuts is also interesting when it was clearly the lack of regulation and tax concessions to the very rich that respectively led to the 2008 economic crisis and the general debt crisis they are now finding themselves in. And then there's the backlash against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (informally referred to as Obamacare) which would bring healthcare in the US in line with other first-world nations. These knee-jerk reactions being indicative of the true danger of the current political landscape, clearly showing how easily the associated mob mentality can be exploited. That is despite the associated rhetoric making no logical sense at al.

Times of great turmoil, as the current economic crisis, is therefore the fertile ground in which radicals like Hitler are able to exploit those with vulnerable religious points of view, and the greater fuel is the mentality that these forms of mindless ideologies create. Ironically though, Obama too greatly benefited from the "A New Earth" mentality created by Oprah, and that he was suggested as the talisman that would bring the necessary 'change' that would take humanity into the prophesized—at least according to Eckard Tolle—promised land.

While I'm not certain that it was necessarily the initial intention, it may well merely have been fortuitous that the mentality Tolle fostered before the 2008 election together with Oprah's significant media influence, had greatly contributed to the success of Obama's campaign. That is particularly given the unprecedented levels of political fervor she had created. In other words, Tolle prepared the soil (the idea of a new earth or a new era for mankind) for Obama's promises (or seeds) of change, while Oprah paraded Obama as the change agent to save the day.

Finally I'm not a US citizen, and am merely attempting to view the situation objectively. I'm also of the opinion that the Liberal/Conservative dialectic (as is the case in the United Kingdom and other advanced democracies) is crucial for democracy and societal health as a whole, which can respectively be viewed as society's metaphorical accelerator/breaks of sorts. The American dialectic, unfortunately, appears to be more about protecting vested economic interest versus promoting societal interests as a whole.

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To get a sense of how the conservative religious right are manipulated/indoctrinated to further the entrenchment of economic power refer to  The Koch Brothers on Aljazeera. Also see The Global Economic Crisis: The Role of America, The George W. Bush Hypnosis File,  The Politics of Telling the Truth.

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Also refer to Joseph Stiglitz: "The Price of Inequality: How Today's Divided Society Endangers our Future.

As well as Robert Jensen: Citizens of the Empire – The Struggle to Claim Our Humanity for some insight as to the reasons why the "America is the Greatest Nation on earth" belief is very dangerous, and indeed is a poignant sign of an imminent decline.

January, 2015

By 2015 the US economy was one of the fastest growing developed economies, particularly compared to Europe, while the stock markets reached record highs despite unprecedented turmoil. China on the hand had, the primary engine of the global recovery, experienced its  worst growth rate in decades while it is ominously building its own housing bubble. This spelling impending danger for the world economy if an immediate correction is not made. Though the correction itself will impact the artificially sustained growth rate even further.

What is most revealing of the world economy today is that, despite significant employment growth in the US since the crash, average household incomes in the US have remained flat. This is contrasted by a dramatic rise of the super-rich with the  number of billionaires more than doubling since the crash. Thus clearly, the economic crash dramatically benefited the super-rich at the expense of the middle class.

Something must be wrong with the state of Rome and that a dramatic redistribution is called for. Surely the walls holding up this unsustainable state of affairs are set to crumble under the weight of such glaring inequity.

November 9, 2016

On this day, Danold Trump was announced President of the United States, the man who wants to build a gigantic wall between The US and Mexico. The greatest irony is that it is very day, 27 years ago, which marked the falling of the Berlin Wall.

And to add another ironic twist, this day – 11/9 – is numerologically related to single most tragic day in American history, the downing of the twin towers on 9/11. Not that the two events can be compared other than this evident coincidence, or that the Trump presidency may be equally devastating given his rhetoric.

Let's hope that the saying, the only thing we learn from history, is that we do not learned, does not hold true given the ominous warning signs.

May 25, 2020

On this day the video of the gratuitous murder of George Floyd at the hands of policemen became viral, revealing the scourge of racial inequalities in the US.

This death added another layer of turmoil that has hit the US in 2020: the greatest plague in the last 100 years; the greatest economic downturn since 1929; and with the death of James Floyd, the greatest civil unrest since 1968.

May 27, 2020

On this day, the US recorded more than 100,000 deaths from COVID 19.

The pandemic happens to coincide with the most ill-equipped US administration in history, having dismantled almost every safeguard necessary protect the country against a major pandemic. This resulted in a perfect storm of mismanagement, social division, and a highly undetectable virus that is incredibly confounding to scientists with its symptom formation.

It also has had a far greater impact on the world economy when compared to the 2008 Great Recession. Its long-term impact is indeterminable at this stage, other than that the world as we had known it, will not be the same again.

Ultimately, for a society that had lost its moral compass to such an extent to find in themselves to elect a man with such obvious lack of character as Trump as their leader, this profound lesson should be clear: that it is always ignorance that summons the vengeance of fate.

Addendum

Global Economic Crisis: The Role of America

(This section was written before September 2008)

Bill Clinton's greatest legacy is that he eliminated the considerable budget deficit which accumulated under the Reagan and Bush administrations. When he took office he not only turned this around but the US would have had a budget surplus in excess of 5.6 trillion dollars by 2010 if the measures introduced were to have been maintained. This while additionally increasing social spending including Medicare. Over the past 50 years the Democrats had also created  double the number of jobs that the GoP.

Notwithstanding this, his administration also was a greater global benefactor than any other US administration. Thus the current monetary crisis can also be similarly solved, but that it would require such strong decisive leadership.

The greater issue however is whether any elected government acts in the best interest of the American people, or specifically to enhance the interests of corporate America at the expense of the American taxpayer.

If the government primarily acts in the interest of corporate America, it will increase the deficit and allow spending to increase, in so doing creating the façade that all is well. This usually is done by reducing corporate tax, and reducing the interest rate, hence promoting consumer spending.

If it is for the people it will ensure the long term sustainability of the country, that is both domestically and globally, as well as ensuring that taxpayers money be used towards the greater social upliftment of all its citizens—this including business as well. How the government of the day will act to this end therefore should not necessarily be party dependent, but largely be driven by the greater social development agenda of the specific leadership of the party—in this regard I'm reasonably certain a McCain government will be more measured than the Bush government was, albeit that the Republican precedent over the past decades suggests a greater leaning towards forwarding the ends of corporate America.

Clearly the Bush government had been self-serving in this regard and is the main culprit in the current precarious economic circumstances. The issue not merely being pandering to corporate America, but specifically that of promoting the interest of large vested commercial groupings—specifically armaments and oil.

The Bush administration has also placed America in a precarious political position, partly because of the war in Iraq, but particularly because of its current indebtedness to China and the Arab world. This indebtedness resulting largely from the need to finance a costly war, but also to create the façade that all is well with the state of the American nation. In particular, while Europe and the rest of the world are taking stringent measures to protect their currencies and prevent rising inflation, the current administration is ensuring that the current high levels of spending is maintained. One of these strategies having been to allow the dollar to dramatically devalue by keeping comparatively low interest rates.

Despite the bleak economic prospects, a great economic catastrophe can be avoided if there is recognition of the potential dire nature of the current status quo; and that there is an open dialogue amongst all international role-players about how such a calamity can reasonably be averted.

Interestingly the 911 attack was a virtual-get-out-of-jail-free card for Bush. At the time his economic scorecard was dismal and that the US was facing major unemployment then already. The tragic events gave Bush an opportunity to shift the focus away from the economy and to declare "business unusual". The attack on Iraq served as a further smokescreen to continue to draw attention away from the underlying real crisis. The net effect now being that America has all but handed over its economic sovereignty to foreign nations.

What this state of "business unusual" did, was to divert congress's focus on fiscal discipline in two directions. Firstly, money was diverted to the war efforts, this also having the secondary effect of temporarily increasing employment—that is both in army personnel and the armaments industry. And secondly, the level of debt was allowed to significantly increase while it created the appearance that all was well. What however has happened is that the dollar has dramatically plummeted against the Euro, this having all but destroyed the confidence in the currency. Again, the reason for allowing this was that it sustained internal economic activity, and hence profits for American corporations. Thus, while corporates were raking profits, Americans are yet to pay for its future fallout.

What invariably should have happened was that interest rates should have been at least half a percentage higher (if not double, and should have gradually been increased from 2004 onwards when signs of the credit crisis was already apparent). This would have had an inflation curbing effect, but also have maintained the dollar at a reasonably competitive level. The further knock-on-effect is that it is increasingly making the dollar very unattractive for investors, and hence this has the potential for exacerbating the debt spiral even further.

Because of this, Jeffrey Frankel Harvard professor and one of the world's leading economists, predicts the euro could replace the dollar as the world trading currency as early as 2015. This view was given in February 2008, now in August of the same year, the situation is substantially worse.

Subsequent to 911, unemployment should have been allowed to slowly increase along its natural course, and to allow the usual compensatory measures to address it, and by now likely would have stabilised and even increased (by doing so it would not have reached the devastating 10% level). However the unnatural state that had ensued since then has created an employment bubble which now is set to burst, but likely in a way the economy and society would not readily be able to contend with were there to have been the aforementioned gradual build-up.

Coming back to the war, the Bush government has all but admitted that the premise for going to war – that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction – was a smokescreen, and that the true reason was to ensure America's strategic oil supply. This now appearing to be an acceptable reason for the American public, despite that they now are left to foot the bill for some considerable time into the future. Ironically for only a couple of years of oil supply, but for an indefinite period of hatred and resentment in the Arab world, and considerable rebuke from the rest of the world.

And if this indeed was the motivation, it is apparent that the oil price has soared since then notwithstanding. The only true benefactors being those who are commercially exploiting it.

However with all the ill will that was created and the total cost of the war, it is proving to be wholly detrimental to Americans and may well prove to be the precursor for a monumental economic decline. What should have happened was, that a small fraction of the money that was spent on the war, should have been spent on developing viable alternatives to alleviate America's total dependence on gasoline. Current technological developments already have proven that hydrogen vehicles is such a viable alternative, and that there is a limitless supply as it is converted back to its original source, water. It therefore also gives off zero harmful emissions.

Such a development would also have put the power back into American hands, particularly since they would then control the emerging technology. In their short-sightedness it appears Japan is going to be such a leader, already having made significant strides in this regard and hence may very well already hold the winning deck of cards in their hand.

The real problem however that has not resulted in such development, being the level of vested interest of American corporations in petroleum and automobiles which I believe is preventing America from making any significant inroads in pursuing such non-gasoline alternatives. It is noteworthy that the mere introduction of a viable alternative in America most likely would cause an immediate drop in the price of oil, though was a creative tactic which was not even remotely considered.

Because of the war, and because of their continued absolute reliance on fossil fuels, the Arab world has significantly strengthened their stranglehold on their American asset base. And as currently is the case, oil producing nations are sitting in the pound seat, while everyone else are finding themselves in a very tenuous American made bed of thorns.

Importantly at this time, America must take cognisance of the changing global dynamics. The most important for them to bear in mind is that the usual strong arm tactics as was often used in the past, would most likely prove ineffective into the future. This is mainly because America is not as revered and respected today as was the case in the not too distant past. This largely because the global playing field have significantly levelled with America not as dominant an economic force as it used to be.

Though it may be hard for Americans to accept, this is a far better status quo. Hence for their collective sanity, Americans ought to come to terms with the fact that they are a significantly diminished power – albeit that they are still by far the greatest economic and military one – and that they cannot strong-arm their way in the world as they use to. In fact, in order to avoid the predicted economic cataclysm, an unprecedented level of global cooperation is demanded.

To give an example of how American influence has waned since 911, one factor that could have had a disastrous impact on the world economy was the looming conflict between Russia and Georgia. As much as there may have been long-standing reasons for their hostilities, the one factor that had greatly exacerbated the tensions, is the War in Iraq—it being another of its ripple effects. This is because the world at this point has been polarized into Pro- and Anti-War factions. Notably Georgia being an American supporter in the war, so much so that President Mikhail Saakashvili announced that he expected its ally, America, to support it in its military stance against Russia.

A further problem is that America, who sent an envoy to mediate in the conflict, had very little moral legitimacy at the time because of its illegitimate war since the overwhelming world opinion was against it. Notwithstanding this, it chose arrogantly to defy world opinion.

What this and the economic situation are attesting to, is that America's questionable actions are coming to haunt them in ways they could not have anticipated. Thus notwithstanding who may be right or wrong in the standoff between Georgia and Russia, the greater issue is that America in its attempt at persuading Russia not to be the aggressor against its smaller neighbour, was hypocritical by virtue of the fact that America had also invaded a sovereign nation without any just cause and against the opinion of the international community. In the end it was France who provided the decisive leadership which ended the standoff.

The above illustrates that the requirement at this time is for unprecedented global cooperation and mutual respect if any nation – big or small – is to make any headway in the future. Thus I believe humanity has evolved as a greater global brotherhood (despite America's unilateral actions) indeed appears to increasingly be becoming a reality, albeit that the bigger boys are still throwing their toys out of the cot from time to time.

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It is noteworthy that, there is to a large extent a reversal to the conditions at the time of the great depression. Firstly it the United States that now is in considerable debt, and China is the nation it is indebted to. Also, China is the producer and that it is Chinese citizens excess savings that is being invested into a rapidly falling dollar in the hope that the American market will continue to sustain their rapidly increasing production. However it is the latter condition, the Psychology of Consumption, which places America at the greatest risk as China is psychological and socially better equipped to deal with the crisis, particularly since they are, despite their prosperity, are already used to conditions of greater austerity.

Global Economic Crisis: The Role of China

(This section was written before September 2008)

Besides America's rampant consumerism, China is in fact the other great culprit in the current unstable global state of affairs. One of the causes being China's continued insane purchasing of the undervalued dollar. The reason for this however is self-interest, it being the manipulation of its own currency in order to maintain a favourable exchange rate with the dollar to ensure their products reach world markets at a more competitive price. That is instead of letting pure market forces prevail. This would have meant a much earlier economic slowdown for China which otherwise would have impacted their phenomenal growth rate over the past decade. This rate having been so impressive that China is set to become the world's leading manufacturer by 2009.

Other protectionist practices together with incredibly high levels of pollution and the fact that China has very little regard for patent rights, are factors which has created a relatively uneven economic playing field. To put it another way, China has mastered the art of monopoly, and is on a massive buying spree, while it also is playing the game with an overloaded dice. And to ensure that there still are players to play with, is providing them with just enough cash, without which the game would come to a very abrupt halt considering the unbalanced spirit with which it currently is being played.

It is noteworthy that employing anti-competitive practices goes directly against the spirit of the Breton Woods round of agreements (concluded in 1944) on this issue. Its intent was to put into place economic practices that would reduce the chances of a great economic downturn as the great depression happening again. The idea of these interventions was to ensure that market forces regulate normal up and downswings in the economy based on the principle of Comparative Advantage and interest rates as a means of controlling the flows of capital. This resulting in far less catastrophic effects than when a local economy is bolstered by restrictive and anti-competitive trading measures such as excessive tariffs and other trade barriers. Thus one of the primary measures was to foster trade and currency liberalization, which China had blatantly disregarded in order to bolster its burgeoning growth.

A further issue which is yet to impact the American economy is the effects of the devastating Chinese earthquakes and flood disasters this year. The reason why this is an impending danger to the world economy is that — despite that China coped very well with these — is that significant capital expenditure is required for rebuilding the lost infrastructure. The reason I suspect this has not already impacted the dollar is that China cannot as yet afford a global recession by retracting its significant investment into it. That is at least not until the August 2008 Olympic games are successfully concluded (the global economic crash happened a day after the closing ceremony of the Paralympic games). The great impediment they already are facing being rising fuel prices, the general state of the world economy, and Tibetan discontent with Chinese rule.

Should China prove to be unaffected by these circumstances in the short to medium future, China's economy may in fact be in a far more robust shape than even its current very impressive showing is suggesting.

What we can conclude is that China's phenomenal growth over the past decade may indeed have been at the expense of the stability of the greater world economy, and that a global rectification will sooner than later have to take place or else the world will be left in complete economic turmoil.

However as intimated before, because of the aforementioned domestic distress as well as the current global state of affairs, China may be disinclined to invest its reserves into the Dollar in the near future and to rather focus on bolstering the burgeoning regional economy.

The knock on effect would be that either the Dollar would even more significantly reduce in value, or that the American Federal Reserve would significantly increase interest rates to attract investment into the dollar. If the former case, because of the dependence of America on foreign goods, a weaker dollar would result in rampant inflation which then can only be curbed by significantly increasing interest rates. Thus either way, this is a time-bomb waiting to happen.

The issue therefore is when rather than whether it will go off.

For America, the dilemma being that this precarious state of affairs all depends on the continued magnanimity of a 'former' foe. The only solution for them therefore appears to be a political leadership capable of bringing America back into international repute, and for Americans to come to terms with the fact that they – for better or worse – are a member of an increasingly globalized world.

The Credit Crunch as it became known did hit immediately after the Olympic games. The games concluded on 17 September 2008, Lehman brothers collapsed on 15 September 2008, the first event which signalled the beginning of the current events.

By this I'm not intimating that China caused the crisis, but rather that it did not serve China any longer to prevent the collapse of American institutions as it had its own domestic issues to contend with. To give a simple analogy of how it happened, using the previous example, once it served its purpose (i.e. a successful Olympic games) China simply decided to stop bailing out the players who were still playing at its mercy. The real culprit, therefore, having been the short-sightedness of the Bush regime, and the American banking institutions in general. I too, not an economist, could clearly see it coming based on my own, albeit unconventional, analysis.

Since then the US reserve's response, unlike that predicted above, was to reduce interest rates. By 29 October 2008 it was lowered to one percent – and eventually to zero – in order to reduce the burden on cash strapped American consumers, and so to stimulate declining economic activity. A number of world economies subsequently followed as the American credit crisis started having an immediate global impact, and in particular the manufacturing sector in China.

The paradoxical effect was that the dollar did not weaken but strengthened as investors tended to withdraw their investments from other perceived risky investments. This dramatic strengthening however being a negative factor as its immediate effect would be to make US goods less competitive, so further exacerbating unemployment pressures. Its strength was also not driven by economic fundamentals as it merely was a reaction to the extent of the impact on the global economy. As such growing dollar strength is another potential bubble that is likely to lead to a future dramatic reversal of current gains.

Within the context of the greater discussion, it should be borne in mind that, managing interest rates is a fundamental economic tool which was completely mismanaged by the US Federal Reserve. Firstly, interest rates should be about maintaining economic fundamentals and as such, needed to have been significantly higher in order to discourage the unsustainable levels of credit which had resulted in the crisis. This in itself would have prevented the eventual crisis from occurring. Secondly, in the wake of a looming recession, gradually reducing it could have significantly stimulated economic activity. The dilemma the US is now facing at this time is that they have already reduced the interest rate to one percent (since then to zero), and thus they have an incredibly thin interest rate cushion which cannot be of any further use in the near to medium future.

Global Economic Crisis: South Africa's Response

NOTE: This section was written in 2007/2008 under the Mbeki government, and doesn't consider the impact of the devastating Zuma regime.

The US eventually reduced their prime lending rate to 0.25% by December 2008. This however had no effect on stimulating the economy as consumer confidence was at an all-time low because of the culmination of a number of adverse factors—record unemployment rate, home foreclosures, bank foreclosures, impending automobile industry foreclosure.

South Africa followed the rest of the world with a 0.5% drop in their prime lending rate, lowering it to 11.5% from its previous high of 12%. This resulted in a higher retail spend in South Africa over the Christmas period compared with the previous year. Together with lower fuel and food prices South African growth is beginning to recover, even though exports will be significantly curtailed because of the growing world recession. A further expected 1% drop in the new year will have an even greater impact, though a total 3% decrease is expected for the year depending on economic indicators such as exchange rates and inflation.

The main reason for South Africa's recovery while other nations are now only beginning to experience the effects of a global recession, is because the deliberate slowing of the economy by increasing the interest rates, had the effect of maintaining the liquidity of South African banks. These banks had also not been heavily exposed to the American prime lending crisis because of exchange controls as European and other banks had—as such no bailout of any banks is foreseen or had been remotely necessary.

A further factor is that South Africa had already psychologically experienced enforced hardships of greater interest rates coupled with high fuel and food prices, and thus when food, fuel and lending prices reduced, were relatively more buoyed by these. On the other hand the rest of the world was only beginning to experience the full impact of the crisis more than a year later.

Added to the above measures, an extended public works program had the effect of bolstering the greater economy as the building and greater engineering sectors had not gone into a decline, hence bolstering the greater service economy. Such measures are now also contemplated by the Obama government, but will take some time to get off the ground.

An analogy of South Africa's early action would be to view their situation as that of someone who had experienced the loss of a loved one after a prolonged terminal illness. Because they were psychologically prepared for the loss, when the person eventually did die, there was not any great trauma. On the other hand America, Iceland and Britain, in particular, experienced the Lehman Brothers collapse and the events that followed, now referred to as the Credit Crunch, as if they had lost a loved one in a fatal accident. Because of the shock of the unexpected tragic incident, they were not prepared for the loss, hence the continued psychological haemorrhaging well after the event.

What is noteworthy is that South Africa remained conservative about their fiscal policy, rather focusing on economic fundamentals, while America presumed they could rewrite the economic handbook—notably, measures taken after The Great Depression to ensure it would never happen again. Because of this approach a relatively small economy could reasonably insulate itself from a global economic calamity, but depending on its scale and duration, may yet face the full impact of the greater fallout. The important thing, however, is that South Africans mental preparedness to deal with the difficulty, now is significantly greater. Mainly because of the measures taken well in advance, which, other than the benefit of ensuring the liquidity of financial institutions, also having had the effect of enforcing a period of hardship which in itself has somewhat bolstered the economy from the psychological effects of the fallout.
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Energy Marketing by Joe Vitale

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