Hey guys, hope everything is fine with you.
I was here taking care of my plants and thinking about the video I am going to shoot for you soon.
But before starting the video, I need to tell you a very important thing.
Dani, Ana, and I are not COVID-19 experts. We know how scientific method and science work.
But we do not understand properly about COVID. So you may be thinking why we decided to talk about COVID-19, right? Well, I will explain to you why.
This is a great didactic opportunity to use the scientific method for something that is happening nowadays.
How science can help in solving problems that affect other aspects, e.g., the economy.
Besides not being COVID-19 experts or doctors, we searched for trustable information on trustable sources, such as the WHO website and papers that are on the description of this video.
Another important aspect is that we will not go deeper into the topic of COVID-19.
We will just use COVID-19 to explain the scientific method.
Of course, we will use some scientific information about COVID-19, e.g., through Dani who is a biologist.
But in general, we will use COVID-19 just as an example to explain the scientific method.
Also important! Search daily trustable information about COVID-19 to be updated and to know what is going on. Deal?
Let's start!
Today we will explain the importance of scientific method by using the trending topic of the moment, which are pandemics, epidemics, and diseases that cause trouble in society.
And of course, we will talk about COVID-19 and other pandemics and epidemics that have happened around the world.
And how those epidemics and pandemics are important to unveil the current COVID-19 crisis and other pandemics that may happen.
Before starting, we will explain what outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics are.
An outbreak is a type of disease that shows several cases in one single region, e.g., dengue.
An epidemic can be considered as an outbreak that spread over to other regions, e.g., people can get infected in a Municipal, Estadual/Provincial, or National level.
To be considered as a pandemic, the disease needs to spread to all continents. Such is the case of COVID-19.
Less than 2 months after the virus appeared in China, it had already spread to all continents over the globe.
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus.
Nowadays, we are aware of seven different types of coronavirus that can lead to diseases in human beings. We will focus on three types.
The first one is the SARS COV. It was discovered in China in 2002 and lead to an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
The second type of coronavirus we will talk about is the MERS COV. This virus was identified in the Middle East in 2012.
The SARS COV 2 is the third one and is the virus that is causing the pandemic of nowadays. It was first identified in the city of Wuhan in China in 2019.
But why do we talk about the  two diseases preceding COVID-19? Because we need to understand all the consequences we have been seen in case of the COVID-19.
But Dani, you said those previous diseases are from 2002 and 2012, right? Depending on your age, you can say that you do not remember a pandemic during those years.
Indeed SARS and MERS outbreaks did not reach the same level of the pandemic of COVID-19.
But then you can ask yourself. If the coronavirus was already known, why COVID-19 is in this situation that we see nowadays?
There are several aspects we need to consider.
Firstly, when the SAR COV appeared in China, the first doctor that said it could be a type of coronavirus, based his argument in previous researches.
He verified that the symptoms of SARS COV was similar to the ones from MERS and SARS, and thus said that this new virus was possibly a type of coronavirus.
However, some people took a while to listen and to take into account what this doctor said.
Ok, fine. But after it was discovered that it was indeed a type of coronavirus. Why was this new virus not controlled as the previous two?
The first factor that needs to be considered is the contamination rate. In the three cases, the contagious and the contamination rates are extremely different.
The viruses are from the same family, but not the same. They suffer mutation, which leads to different adaptation and properties.
When we talk about MERS, we need to consider some aspects.
MERS is a zoonotic virus, but what does it mean?
This means that most contagious were from direct contact with animals, and the contamination between people to people happened mainly inside of hospitals.
Besides MERS being more lethal than COVID-19, its reproduction and transmission rates are smaller than the COVID-19 ones.
SARS is also a disease that possibly came from a bat, from were the contagious started.
It also had a high transmission rate, and by studying this virus, it was possible to control better the MERS when it appeared in the Middle East in 2012.
So, if SARS also has a high transmission rate, and it spreads through the same means as the COVID-19. So why SARS didn’t turn into a pandemic such as COVID-19?
SARS symptoms can be seen before the transmission stage of the disease.
Thus it is easier to isolate sick people before they start transmitting the disease to another person.
This is not the case on the COVID-19, as it can be transmitted to people before the symptoms show up. This is the biggest issue!
A lot of people are asymptomatic or take up to 15 days to show any symptoms of the disease.
During this period, they continue to circulate among places, even without knowing if he/she is already infected.
This is why social distancing is so important.
Several times the person is already infected, and it is spreading around the virus, even without noticing it.
This is a new virus, and we still do not have a vaccine for it.
The two previous diseases were mentioned to exemplify how the scientific method, studies, and knowledge can provide solutions for future problems.
Due to previous knowledge on SARS and MERS, the first doctor in China pointed out correctly that the COVID-19 was possibly a type of coronavirus.
This was possible by studies on previous papers of SARS and MERS, the doctor could understand from where similar symptoms to the COVID-19 came.
Thus, we can see how important it is to have studies and scientific knowledge about the issues around us, which can help in solving future problems.
As Dani pointed out before, we need to learn about the pandemics from the past and learn from them.
History helps us to see what had already happened and move forward.
And science always needs to gather information in the past to help us to move to a better future.
So come with me to study a bit about the pandemics that have happened in the past.
But how to do that?
Is the floor shaking here at home?
What is going on? What is happening with the books?
Who is moving it? Is It a phantom?
Will we have to prove that phantoms exist?
Oh, I am gone. What is that story about the king’s clothes?
Just smart people can really see me, right?
Just kidding!
Yes, I am here, and I am going to travel trough time. Let’s go?
So let’s study the big pandemics from history.
The first is the famous black plague or bubonic plague. This one has the famous spout bird mask. And happened between 1333 and 1351.
This pandemic affected Europe and Asia and had more than 50 million deaths.
The contamination was through the Yersinia pestis bacteria that are common in rats and rodents.
It is transmitted to humans by fleas that are in those animals.
The disease was reduced when the hygiene and the sanitation of the cities improved. Thus decreasing the number of rats and rodents in the cities.
The next pandemic we will talk about is cholera that had its first global epidemic between 1817 and 1824.
The vibrio cholerae had several mutations, which lead to several epidemic cycles and hundreds of thousands of deaths.
The contamination was through contaminated food or water.
The bacteria multiply in the intestine, producing a toxin that leads to intense diarrhea.
The next disease is variola, which had the biggest peak between 1896 and 1980 and led to the death of 300 million people.
The variola virus was transmitted person to person and usually by the respiratory means.
It caused fever, followed by eruptions on the mouth, the throat, and the face.
The next and more recent pandemic happened between 1918 and 1919.
The Spanish flu virus killed around 20 million people around the world.
The contamination was via air, trough saliva droplets, and sneezes of infected people.
The virus is always mutating, and this is why human beings are never immune.
Thus, it was necessary to vaccinate every year to make people immune.
Who would say one year ago that we would be living now with this pandemic, right?
In mine’s, Dani’s, and Carol’s generation, I don’t remember having lived through anything similar.
It was really nice that Dani and Carol showed us that epidemics and pandemics are not something new, and we need to adapt and learn with them.
Today I will use something that we learned in other videos about scientific method. Do you remember we talked about scientific method, right?
So, we came up with a nice idea! We will use the scientific method to explain how the COVID-19 situation was dealt with.
For that, we need to remember something we discussed in another video on how to find trustable information.
We used a timeline from the World Health Organization (WHO) that you can find on the description of this video, for a very interesting exercise.
We checked for the moment when the first case of COVID-19 appeared and when WHO considered it as a pandemic.
I will relate those facts with the scientific method steps. So, let’s go? It will be great!
It is important to highlight that this exercise that we are proposing here is something we created based on the WHO data. This is not a study by WHO.
We just used information from the WHO website, and we relocated them to the steps of scientific method for educational purposes.
By making use of my virtual blackboard, you will be able to see the steps and the timeline of the COVID-19 since it was discovered.
Observation: On 31st December 2019 in Wuhan, some cases of pneumonia from a different type of coronavirus were found.
On the first days of the year, the WHO started to collect resources to study a possible virus that could appear.
Literature review: On 10th January, the WHO released a package on how to detect, manage, and test possible cases of this new coronavirus.
The two moments can be related to the steps of Observation and Literature Review.
They observed new cases of pneumonia, and based on previous cases of other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, they created this assistance package.
First studies: On 12th January, China made the first genetic sequencing of COVID-19.
First Hypothesis: On 14th January, it was said that there was no human to human transmission of the virus.
As a counterpoint to the scientific method, this can be considered as the first hypothesis being made.
On the 22nd January, specialists went to Wuhan and said that actually there was human to human transmission, however  more studies were needed.
This is an interesting point. The first hypothesis of a non human to human transmission was developed on 14th January.
But when specialists go to Wuhan, develop a  method and test, they decline the initial hypothesis once they verify that there was indeed human to human transmission.
And this is super common in research.
Another interesting aspect is that the first cases were seen on 31st December. Still, only at the end of January, initial responses were seen.
Even in cases of epidemics and pandemics, research is not immediate.
Methods and analysis always are needed in science before drawing any decision conclusions.
Between the 22nd and 23rd January, the WHO Director convened the Emergency Committee to access if the coronavirus cases out there should be considered as a public health emergency of international concern.
I know, it is a huge name!
Anyway, on this day, with the data that the Committee had, they said that no conclusion could be made. They would get together after 10 days to discuss it again.
At this moment, they were still developing their method and analyzing the data they had collected.
Thus, it can be considered as a method, test, data analysis and interpretation  steps.
On 28th January, the WHO and the Chinese government agreed that international scientists will go to China to better understand this disease, e.g., how is it, what is the context, the response.
On 30th January, the Emergency Committee gets together again and considered the situation as a public health emergency of international concern.
Here, it is interesting to see that before they couldn’t verify the disease status by the data they had.
After analyzing it more, they reached some first results saying that this disease needed to be considered as a public health emergency of international concern.
In our scientific method exercise, we can say that they analyzed some data, interpreted it, and had some first results.
Between 16th and 24th February, the first COVID-19 report was released (link for the report in the description of the video).
There they pointed out the first findings of the virus and interesting recommendations in the end.
Still, during this moment, the coronavirus was being considered an epidemic and not pandemic.
Only on 11th March, the WHO designated the COVID-19 as a pandemic.
But why? Because before making any conclusions, they needed to verify the data that they had and analyze it.
At the moment the first report was released, the data and facts showed that the disease was just an epidemic.
Afterwards, when cases started to appear in other places, and different types of transmission were confirmed, it was the moment to classify the disease as a pandemic.
Again, new hypotheses created previous were declined and new ones coming. Which is normal in science!
What we tried here was to bring a dynamic exercise of something that can be seen nowadays and connect it to the scientific method. Thus showing that scientific method is always with us.
Again it is important to highlight that we used this exercise for educational purposes.
So, if you are a teacher, an educator, make use of those ideas.
Have a look at what is happening around the world and see how you can apply the scientific method to it.
Coronavirus is trending nowadays, so it is also important to say that sometimes it is hard for us to know which information about, e.g., medicines and vaccines to believe.
In the description of the video, there is an interesting link where the WHO provides daily information about the COVID-19.
Always look for trustable information to stimulate your critical thought.
Caroline, my darling, this COVID-19 is indeed dangerous.
And yes, science is so important, right?
I still do not believe much in this story of the mango with the milk from last week.
But science, I know it is important!
Really you are still not convinced about the mango and the milk story, grandma?
Look at me! I am super healthy and drink my mango and milk smoothie every day!
But I am happy to know that you got convinced on the COVID-19 topic.
This is why we think science is incredible.
Because we just need to look around and see how science can give answers to a lot of questions!
So, what do you think about us talking on our next video about the first step of the scientific method? The observation step!
And to observe is not only related to physics, chemistry, and math, but it is in all areas!
We will take you guys through a cool trip and show how science is important and that by observing around us, we can change the world!
Do you want to join us? Come and keep changing with science!
