From the mission to Mars, to what it would
be like to have it filled with people, join
me as we talk about the Elon Musk Mars City
By 2050!
Elon Musk is a man on a mission, and that
mission is to get humanity not just to Mars,
but to get them to Mars in this decade.
This is why he built his own space organization
in SpaceX, to do what NASA (at the time) couldn't
do, inspire the need to be in space again.
And he has succeeded, and now, SpaceX is not
only one of the leading places in all space
travel designs and plans, but they are indeed
looking to be the group to send a person to
Mars.
But the plans go beyond that, he doesn't just
want to land a person on the surface of Mars
and say he's done (which is what we did with
the moon if you really think about it), but
he wants to set up a colony there.
Surely you must be thinking, "well a colony
would be nice, but that'll take some time
to get up and running, right?"
And you're absolutely right.
It will take a lot of time and effort, but
some of the work is already being done because
of SpaceX via their Starship.
You see, the biggest problem with getting
to Mars...is getting to Mars.
We for the longest time barely had something
that could get us to the moon and back safely,
and even then (like Apollo 13) it was very
easy to screw up.
With SpaceX though, they've been working on
faster, stronger, and most importantly of
all, reusable craft that can operate in space,
come back to Earth, and then be outfitted
again for future missions.
And it's this Starship class of ship that
we'd be taking to Mars to go and make a colony.
Musk wrote in a message that the eventual
goal for his "Mars plan" is to launch each
Starship vehicle three times per day on average.
Each Starship will be able to carry about
100 tons of payload to orbit, so, at that
flight rate, every vehicle would loft about
100,000 tons annually, he explained.
Now, Musk may sound like he's just spouting
out a number here (and if we're being honest...he
kind of is) but in truth, he is trying to
abide by the laws of space and reality.
What do we mean by that?
Simple, when it comes to the facts of space
travel, having the right windows to travel
in are essential.
Not the least of which is trying to minimize
travel time by making sure you are in the
correct windows.
Confused?
I'll explain.
Think about the solar system we are in, ok?
Think about how every planet orbits around
the sun.
Now, if you were to look at Mercury, and its
orbit, and then compare it to Earth's orbit,
you would see quite easily that its orbit
was shorter than Earths by a very good margins.
88 days compared to 365.
So now, compare the Earth's orbit around the
sun to Mars.
365 days...to 867 days.
Yeah...that's quite a leap.
And because of that, the Earth and Mars aren't
in the same alignment most times.
Thus, Musk, NASA and others are aiming to
try and get people to Mars within certain
windows.
"Building 100 Starships/year gets to 1000
in 10 years or 100 megatons/year or maybe
around 100k people per Earth-Mars orbital
sync," he said in a tweet.
So for him, he's thinking REALLY long term
by not just trying to get to Mars, but also
trying to make it so WHEN we get there, and
we have enough time and resources to make
a true colony, we have the ships necessary
to get a full colony made in a decent amount
of time.
By "decent amount of time" I mean about 50-100
years.
Yeah, this is not a quick process, however,
the quicker we get started, the quicker we
get done, right?
And that's one of Musk's biggest goals.
Trying to do things now instead of hoping
something will develop later to make things
more speedy.
Because waiting around just isn't good when
you're trying to shape the human race towards
its future.
After hearing some of his numbers, he stated
one fan asked if he was seriously stating
that we could have a million people on Mars
by 2050.
His response?
"Yes."
Obviously that would go against his timeline
we just spelled out in part because of how
long it would take to MAKE a colony that could
house a million people and be both functional
and self-sustaining, but hey, goals!
Before we talk about whether these goals are
feasible or not, be sure to like the video
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So let's break this down, shall we?
Could we really have a full-on colony city
on Mars by 2050 that has a million or so people
on it?
Technically...yes.
If EVERYTHING goes right and we're able to
shorten the time gap on certain things, as
well as catch a couple lucky breaks and all
that.
Obviously, the first hurdle is coming into
focus: getting to Mars.
Obviously none of this matters if we don't
get to Mars.
The first mission is scheduled for the next
few years if you believe Elon Musk.
And obviously if the mission goes well it'd
be a huge milestone for humankind, but that's
just the beginning steps of it.
If not apparently obvious, you can't send
a large group of people to a planet we've
never been to before to start colonizing it.
You have to send a very small group of people,
a handful at most.
And that is indeed the plan.
The goal is to have them on Mars by 2025 or
maybe 2026 if there are delays in flight plans
and such (which is probable given recent setbacks
in the SpaceX program).
Anyway, once the people are on Mars, they'll
go to work setting up their base camp (via
supplies and dropoffs made by an unmanned
mission the year before) and then start doing
all sorts of tests on the Martian surface.
The intent, barring something unforeseen,
is for them to remain on Mars for about 9
months, and when that time is up, they return
to Earth for study and examination.
Why?
Because since we've never been to Mars in
the physical sense (not including probes,
rovers, etc.) we have no true idea if the
people living there will be affected by various
forces that people like NASA or Elon Musk
couldn't have predicted.
Hence why you send a small group of people
to the surface of Mars and not a full colony
rightoff.
They'll be studied, monitored for a while,
and then should everything go right, SpaceX
and NASA would be given permission to start
the colony preparations and the next steps
in the mission.
But this is where things get a bit tricky
in and of themselves.
Because let's look at this colonization in
the large scale, shall we?
At this point in time, let's be generous and
say 2027 (the time where the astronauts likely
will be back on Earth after their Mars mission),
the only real things on Mars is a base for
the original team, and possibly some other
items depending on what Musk sent via the
cargo ships.
That's a LONG way from having a fully housed
colony, not to mention that to get to a population
size of 1 million people...you'd need to make
sure you can house, feed, and keep safe 1
million people.
That's not as easy as people like to think
it is.
That's not to say it's impossible, we obviously
know that it's not based just on Earth and
how we've adapted to protect ourselves from
various things, but to do it on Mars will
be even harder.
So what will it take to get to 1 million people
on Mars by 2050?
A lot of starships, a lot of people, and a
lot of quick building.
Let's start with the basics, shall we?
For the second Mars mission (aka the one after
the first group comes back and proves that
there's nothing overtly harmful about living
on Mars outside of basic risks), more than
likely a larger group will be sent to the
planet to not just live there (possibly for
a much longer term depending on the mission
parameters) but to lay the groundwork for
the colony at large.
The first group that will be sent to Mars
will very much be a science team and possibly
an engineer or two to work on setting up power
generators and maybe even solar panels.
But for the most part, it'll be about studying
Mars to setup the possibility of true colonization.
For round two, there will be a lot more people
focused on the actual building of the colony,
which is both very good and very problematic.
After all...what are you going to build the
colony out of?
And just as important...where are you going
to get the materials to build said colony?
Exactly.
Now, both of these questions have many answers,
but which ones will lend itself to the goal
of the 2050 timetable for the colony?
A few, very few in fact.
Never forget that the reason we can do massive
and breathtaking buildings here on Earth is
because resources are only a few hours or
maybe even days away should we need them and
plan ahead to get them.
For Mars, they don't have that option, or
at least, not at first.
Unlike Earth, we don't know what's exactly
in the Martian soil.
We have tests that show there are various
minerals and rare-Earth metals we can use,
but getting to them, refining them and making
them useful for colony growth is a long process.
So for the vast majority of time, we'll be
relying on shipments from Earth to send us
the materials that we need to build the Martin
colony.
That's a very costly and time-consuming endeavor,
and can totally through off the timetable
should even a single shipment go wrong.
And knowing how space travel and construction
works...something will go wrong eventually.
However, there is another option.
One that is a little more creative and uses
the resources at hand.
There is a plan in place that could have various
rovers (which would be shipped in via the
Starship cargo vessels that can carry a great
deal of them at once) using 3D printing to
help setup various homes for people using
the natural soil and ground of Mars.
How this will work exactly is a little abstract,
but the idea of 3D printing things could work...in
theory.
And if we're being honest, building the housing
is just ONE of the main problems that the
Mars colony has to deal with.
Another major hurdle is food and water.
We know there's water on Mars, that's been
proven, and the SpaceX mission is even going
to go to a place where water is so that it
can be extracted much easier than having to
go and search for a good water spot or hoping
that there is water around.
However, when it comes to food?
We'll have to bring our own, and either get
continuous shipments from Earth (which again
is costly, time-consuming, and problematic)
or pull a Matt Damon (from his movie The Martian)
and find a way to grow our own food.
Which would be awesome...but problematic in
its own right.
And while we could eventually create massive
greenhouses to make our own crops on Mars,
that process will take time to now just grow,
but test to make sure they're safe for consumption,
but it'll also take time to make it possible
for it to feed 1 million people by 2050.
Ask any farmer you know and expansion of crops
and growth of plants isn't the easiest thing
in the world.
But let's be fair here.
Let's say, just for sake of argument, that
we're able to get to Mars, have many successful
missions, start setting up a home there, and
get it to where we can have reliable power
(more than likely via solar panels), consistent
food and water, and more...there's one final
problem for Elon Musk to deal with.
Mainly...can he really get 1 million people
to go to Mars?
I ask this honestly because it's a question
that isn't really brought up all too often.
Yes, many of us "dream" of being a multi-planetary
race...but dreaming that and doing that for
real is two very different things.
The colonization of Mars has to be a voluntary
thing for all sorts of reasons.
And while Elon Musk has noted that “There
will be a lot of jobs on Mars!”, that doesn't
exactly answer what life will be like on Mars.
Not in the "how will we survive?"
kind of way, but rather the, "what will do
every day?"
kind of way.
Think about it.
We'll likely have power, sure, but for the
first many years it's doubtful we'd have things
like TV, internet, access to libraries and
more.
It'd be a lot like the early colony days of
the United States.
Lots of work and restrictions on where you
can go and pass the time.
Sure, by 2050 that could be remedied in part
or in whole depending on technology, but to
be a fully stocked, fully occupied, and fully
operational city in all the forms that people
want?
That's a bit of a reach, even for Elon Musk.
Never forget that humanity loves being comfortable,
we like to know what's awaiting for us at
work, at home, with our families and more.
While some people will happily jump at the
chance to be on Mars, not everyone will.
And to say that hundreds of thousands of people
will happily jump onto Elon's ships to go
and populate Mars every year or so?
That might not be in the cards...
Thanks for watching everyone!
What did you think of this look at the goal
of Elon Musk to populate a colony on Mars
with a million people by 2050?
Do you think that it'll happen?
Would you want to live on Mars in its first
colony?
Let me know in the comments below, be sure
to subscribe, and I'll see you next time on
the channel!
