WHAT KIND OF RESPONSE CAN THE U.S. EXPECT?
U.S. EXPECT? >> YOU WERE AN IRANIAN EXPERT.
>> YOU WERE AN IRANIAN EXPERT. WHAT ARE YOUR TOPLINE ITEMS
WHAT ARE YOUR TOPLINE ITEMS YOU’RE TAKING AWAY FROM THIS?
YOU’RE TAKING AWAY FROM THIS? >> IN MY VIEW THE MOST SERIOUS
>> IN MY VIEW THE MOST SERIOUS INCLINATION OF THE ARSENAL
INCLINATION OF THE ARSENAL HIDDEN SOMETIMES OPEN CONFLICT
HIDDEN SOMETIMES OPEN CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN.
BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. >> DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF WHY
>> DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF WHY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DID
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DID THIS NOW?
THIS NOW? >> THEY SAY HE WAS INVOLVED IN
>> THEY SAY HE WAS INVOLVED IN ANTI-AMERICAN ABILITY.
ANTI-AMERICAN ABILITY. THAT WAS HIS PORTFOLIO.
THAT WAS HIS PORTFOLIO. THAT WAS HIS JOB FOR THE THE
THAT WAS HIS JOB FOR THE THE LAST 20 YEARS.
LAST 20 YEARS. SO, HE’S BEEN DOING THIS.
SO, HE’S BEEN DOING THIS. WHY IS IT THAT NOW HE HAS
WHY IS IT THAT NOW HE HAS SUDDENLY BECOME SO NEEDED.
SUDDENLY BECOME SO NEEDED. >> IS THERE A LOGIC TO PURSUING
>> IS THERE A LOGIC TO PURSUING THIS STRIKE RIGHT NOW
THIS STRIKE RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING WHAT’S GOING ON WITH
CONSIDERING WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE ECONOMY IN IRAN AND WHETHER
THE ECONOMY IN IRAN AND WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FIX THAT?
THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO FIX THAT? >> IT SEEMS TO BE THAT PUSHED
>> IT SEEMS TO BE THAT PUSHED THEM A LITTLE BIT MORE THE
THEM A LITTLE BIT MORE THE PEOPLE WILL RISE UP AGAINST THIS
PEOPLE WILL RISE UP AGAINST THIS REGIME.
REGIME. I DON’T BELIEVE THAT WILL WORK.
I DON’T BELIEVE THAT WILL WORK. MY SENSE IS THAT THE REGIME AT
MY SENSE IS THAT THE REGIME AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME WILL GET
LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME WILL GET KIND OF A STRENGTHENING.
KIND OF A STRENGTHENING. >> CAN YOU EXPAND A LITTLE BIT
>> CAN YOU EXPAND A LITTLE BIT ON WHERE THE PEOPLE STAND AS IT
ON WHERE THE PEOPLE STAND AS IT RELATES TO THE REGIME?
RELATES TO THE REGIME? >> FOR THE THE FIRST TIME WE’VE
>> FOR THE THE FIRST TIME WE’VE HAD IMPERIALEMPIRICAL DATA.
HAD IMPERIALEMPIRICAL DATA. PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE
PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE REGIME.
REGIME. LESS THAN 10% OF THE PEOPLE ARE
LESS THAN 10% OF THE PEOPLE ARE HAPPY WITH THE STATUS.
HAPPY WITH THE STATUS. SO, ISOLATED AND THE REGIME IS
SO, ISOLATED AND THE REGIME IS BY THE PEOPLE, BY THE GREAT,
BY THE PEOPLE, BY THE GREAT, GREAT MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE.
GREAT MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE. I THINK 10% ACTED.
I THINK 10% ACTED. IF YOU HAVE 10% OF THE
IF YOU HAVE 10% OF THE POPULATION AND YOU HAVE SOME
POPULATION AND YOU HAVE SOME MONEY AND YOU HAVE THE POWER OF
MONEY AND YOU HAVE THE POWER OF IDEOLOGY AND FAITH BEHIND IT,
IDEOLOGY AND FAITH BEHIND IT, YOU CAN STILL DO A LOT OF
YOU CAN STILL DO A LOT OF DAMAGE.
DAMAGE. THIS IS NOT A REGIME THAT IS
THIS IS NOT A REGIME THAT IS BEREFT OF OPTIONS.
BEREFT OF OPTIONS. THE FACT THAT HE’S ISOLATED, THE
THE FACT THAT HE’S ISOLATED, THE FACT THAT ECONOMIC CRISIS, THAT
FACT THAT ECONOMIC CRISIS, THAT HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE
HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE TENSION WITHIN THE REGION.
TENSION WITHIN THE REGION. THIS HAS COMBINED TO CREATE A
THIS HAS COMBINED TO CREATE A VERY, VERY BIG CHALLENGE.
VERY, VERY BIG CHALLENGE. >> ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMPLAINTS
>> ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMPLAINTS THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE
THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT WHEN A POLL SHOWS
TALKING ABOUT WHEN A POLL SHOWS UP AND LESS THAN 10% ARE
UP AND LESS THAN 10% ARE SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT
SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT REGIME.
REGIME. >> I THINK THEY’RE EDUCATED OF
>> I THINK THEY’RE EDUCATED OF SO MANY UNEMPLOYED.
SO MANY UNEMPLOYED. UNEMPLOYMENT IS ABOUT 20%.
UNEMPLOYMENT IS ABOUT 20%. INFLATION IS ABOUT 50%.
INFLATION IS ABOUT 50%. CORRUPTION IS ABSOLUTELY
CORRUPTION IS ABSOLUTELY ENDEMIC.
ENDEMIC. THIS IS A PLUNDERING.
THIS IS A PLUNDERING. >> SO, AS YOU MENTIONED, IRAN IS
>> SO, AS YOU MENTIONED, IRAN IS SPECIFICALLY ECONOMICALLY WEAK
SPECIFICALLY ECONOMICALLY WEAK BUT THEY’RE NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID
BUT THEY’RE NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID OF OPTIONS HERE.
OF OPTIONS HERE. SO, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS THAT
SO, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS THAT IRAN DOES HAVE IN ORDER TO
IRAN DOES HAVE IN ORDER TO RETALIATE?
RETALIATE? >> THEY WENT AFTER SAUDI ARABIA
>> THEY WENT AFTER SAUDI ARABIA AND DID ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF
AND DID ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF DAMAGE TO SAUDI ARABIA AND THE
DAMAGE TO SAUDI ARABIA AND THE OIL MARKET.
OIL MARKET. THEY CAN ATTACK THE UNITED ARAB
THEY CAN ATTACK THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES IF THEY WANT.
EMIRATES IF THEY WANT. THEY HAVE U.S. BASES IN OTHER
THEY HAVE U.S. BASES IN OTHER PLACES IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
PLACES IN THE PERSIAN GULF. THERE ARE A LOT OF SOLDIERS
THERE ARE A LOT OF SOLDIERS THERE.
THERE. MY SENSE IS THAT VERY CALCULATED
MY SENSE IS THAT VERY CALCULATED TO RESPOND IN A WAY THAT THEY
TO RESPOND IN A WAY THAT THEY WILL SAVE FACE, THAT HARMONY
WILL SAVE FACE, THAT HARMONY WILL CONSOLIDATE THE BASE
WILL CONSOLIDATE THE BASE BECAUSE THE BASE IS CLEARLY THE
BECAUSE THE BASE IS CLEARLY THE 10% DEMANDING REVENGE.
10% DEMANDING REVENGE. IN FINDING AN OPTION THAT KEEPS
IN FINDING AN OPTION THAT KEEPS THE BASE HAPPY BUT DOESN’T LEAD
THE BASE HAPPY BUT DOESN’T LEAD TO ESCALATION IS A SENSE OF
TO ESCALATION IS A SENSE OF CAUTION WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE
CAUTION WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO TRY TO AVOID IRAN BECOMING
TO TRY TO AVOID IRAN BECOMING THE NEXT IRAQ, IRAN BECOMING
