Hello, and welcome to the Morningstar series,
"Market Reaction." I'm Emma Wall and I'm joined
today by State Street's Michael Metcalfe to
talk about the prospects for the U.K. economy.
Hi, Michael.
Hello.
So, what's caused this unexpected spike in
inflation for August to 2.7%?
Well, firstly, it was a surprise. I think
we were expecting this gentle decline in inflation.
And I think there are a couple of things influencing
that. I think the first, obviously, is activity.
We've had a spike in activity. We're not sure
whether that will last, but we've certainly
had a spike in activity over the summer. And
then also, we've had a combination of sterling
weakness also. So, I think, there's a conglomeration
of factors that have created this. But it's
going to be really important now to see whether
it's just a one-off or whether actually the
downtrend in inflation has paused.
And if this is not a one-off, if we continue
to see this level of inflation, surely that
has an impact on interest rate decisions?
Absolutely. So, so far, the Bank of England
has been very relaxed and very gradual in
their tightening cycle. It is a tightening
cycle. Rates are expected to continue to go
up. But they've been allowed to be gradual.
And I think the risk is that with the labour
market as tight as it is, rising inflation
from the current level means they might have
to go a little bit faster and that could be
problematic for markets.
Now, inflation is higher than we'd like it
to be. And as you mentioned there, the employment
market looks good. We've got low unemployment.
Those are typically signs of an economy doing
well. But there are some concerns about the
UK economy, aren't there, because of the spectre
in the room, Brexit?
I thought we'd get to Brexit at some point.
Well, it's interesting on growth, isn't it?
Because we are growing at capacity, or we
have been growing actually even a little bit
more than capacity. That's what the labour
market is telling us. But growth has been
a little disappointing. It wasn't quite as
bad – following the Brexit vote, everyone
thought there might be an instant recession
because of the shock to animal spirits and
actually, in the end, animal spirits held
up very well, confidence was fine. It's very
different now though because actually right
now we are trying to make investment decisions,
companies are trying to figure out what they
do in 2019. And unfortunately, because of
Brexit we still don't know. And so, I think,
uncertainty, at least on the investment side,
has been a big drag and will continue to be
so until we figure out the shape of Brexit.
And how do corporations and indeed, consumers
invest in a market where there is such uncertainty?
Well, I think, from the consumer point of
view for the moment, and we have mentioned
it couple of times already, the key is the
labour market. So, you know, I think until
Brexit uncertainty begins to affect employment
prospects seriously, then actually the consumer
side at least has held up quite well and we
know it's distorted by fun things like the
World Cup. On the investment side, that's
a lot harder from the corporations' side and
here we are talking really about business
confidence. There's been a lot of open public
debate about how difficult it's been to make
investment decisions. And so, that's where
the hesitation is and that's really where
the shape of Brexit is going to matter an
awful lot.
And Brexit is a very emotive issue. There
have been some quite negative headlines, journalists,
I'm sure, have ourselves played into that,
but so have politicians, so have business
leaders. How concerned should an investor
in UK stocks be about the UK?
So, it would be very easy to look at how markets
reacted around the original referendum result
and say, well, actually, we were overly concerned
and actually, the economy did fine. I think
the reality of an actual Brexit when it comes,
particularly if it's a hard Brexit, we'll
be very different from that because a hard
Brexit would be an immediate real economic
shock. And look, as you say, it's very difficult
to predict precisely how big an economic disruption
it will be. But anything that physically disrupts
trade and supply chains, which is what we
are talking about, is akin to a natural disaster
and the impact on an economy. So, I think
that there should be concern. There's certainly
a real economic risk of activity being significantly
disrupted and that's over and above the impact
on investment spending and animal spirits.
This is a real economic disruption that we
are talking about here and it's difficult
to see given how late we are in the game is
if we have a no-deal Brexit, it's very difficult
to see how you'd escape some physical actual
economic disruption. So, I think, to that
extent, yes, there is going to be some concern.
What's the probability of a hard Brexit versus
a softer Brexit and getting a deal? I think
that's the thing right now that the market
is weighing up and it's swinging around with
all the different commentary. I would say
right now the very latest commentary, we should
date it at the bottom of the video, seems
to be actually that we might get a deal and
that's the track that we are on. But this
risk that we knocked off maybe by UK politics
more than anything else on to a different
track. So, yes, it's something that investors
really need to consider because it's could
be a real economic shock.
Michael, thank you very much. This is Emma
Wall for Morningstar. Thank you for watching.
