We do want to get to, I don't know what we
want to go to here. Since we have limited
time, I think I want to talk about the...
well, how would we even describe this? Population
changes.
Louis: Right.
David: That are going to affect the 2012 election.
Now, right after the midterm election, I had
a whole, I have to say, not to pat myself
on the back, but we prepared a pretty good
discussion of how population changes could
affect Democrats' chances in 2012, and now
that we're actually getting some census numbers
in, it turns out that we were pretty accurate
in our predictions, were we not?
Louis: I think so.
David: And this was opening the door to a
number of different discussions. Now, what
we are seeing is that yes, it is true that
many blue states are losing electoral votes.
Massachusetts, where we do the show, is one
of them. We're going from, it's 11 to 10,
I think. We're losing one. I don't remember
if it's 12 to 11 or 11 to 10. Anybody back
there know? 11 to 10? I think it's...
Natan Pakman: 10 to 9, I think.
David: 10 to 9, maybe. All right. Well, this
is the case with some other blue states as
well. And of course Republicans are jumping
all over this thing, frothing at the mouth,
'Oh, everybody's leaving the blue states!
Taxes are too high! It's all because taxes
are too high!' And if you actually look at
the numbers, you'll see that the population
comparatively has gone down in a lot of these
states, which means, hey, I'm not denying
that it means blue states will lose electoral
votes, but the reality is the population in
Massachusetts, for example, did go up, it
went up 3%, it just didn't go up as fast as
it did elsewhere. So I think versus a 9% average,
the population only went up 3% in Massachusetts.
So number one, people should be aware of that.
Now, the reality is, are people leaving because
taxes are too high, or is that just typical
Republican anti-progress rhetoric that's not
going to get us anywhere? Well, which do you
think it is?
Louis: Rhetoric.
David: You think it's rhetoric. Well, it turns
out, in many states, it is. In some states,
this actually may not help Republicans. You
would think if everybody who doesn't like
taxes leaves a blue state, goes to a red state,
they're going to vote Republican, it would
only be logical to assume that. Of course,
like with many of the conventional-- like
conventional wisdom often leads you to do,
you would be flat wrong in that assumption.
In some states, it could actually go the other
direction. A perfect example is Texas. Texas
is a red state, traditionally a red state.
I want to say maybe 60-40, when Barack Obama
was elected in 2008, so it's significantly
red, but it is not... it's not Utah, right?
Louis: Right.
David: If you actually look at the population
of white people in Texas, it's basically flat
from the last census, which begs the obvious
question: well, if the population went up
in Texas and they actually gained, I think
it's one seat, one electoral vote, where did
it come from? And it came from Hispanics.
And as we know, Louis, with the exception
of Cubans, Hispanics tend to be pretty liberal.
And my-- I'm from Argentina, my family is
from Argentina. I'm conservative compared
to the majority of my family. That's just
the way it is. So the fact that the non-Cuban
Hispanic population in Texas has gone up,
we might actually see 55-45 in Texas in 2012.
Maybe it won't be that dramatic.
So the conventional wisdom here, as I always
like to warn our audience, is not really going
to get you where you want to be if critical
thinking, logic, and reason are your target.
Now, if your target is GOP talking points,
then yes, conventional wisdom will get you
where you want to go. Where is it that you
prefer to be, Louis? Logic and reason or GOP
talking points? It's not clear to the audience
sometimes.
Louis: I think I'm going to have to go with
logic and reason.
David: Overall, I'm not denying the population
changes will be a problem for Democrats in
2012. As I said months ago, this is going
to be an issue. The idea that people are leaving
blue states because taxes are too high and
that this is going to shift unmistakably towards
the red, the vote in 2012, is wrong, though.
And we have to look at where is the population
growth coming from? There's just a lot of
questions we need to ask.
Transcript provided by Alex Wickersham. For
transcription, translation, captions, and
subtitles, contact Alex at directtranslation@gmail.com.
