AGO THAT HE’S INSTRUCTED SECRETARY STEVE MNUCHIN TO
SECRETARY STEVE MNUCHIN TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SANCTIONS
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SANCTIONS ON IRAN.
ON IRAN. WE’RE GOING TO GET TO ALL OF
WE’RE GOING TO GET TO ALL OF THAT IN A MOMENT
THAT IN A MOMENT BUT FIRST THIS MORNING, WE ARE
BUT FIRST THIS MORNING, WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
ALSO SEEING THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF WHERE THE 2020 RACE STANDS AFTER
WHERE THE 2020 RACE STANDS AFTER LAST WEEK’S DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IN
LAST WEEK’S DEMOCRATIC DEBATE IN HOUSTON, AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE
HOUSTON, AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE FRONT-RUNNERS HAVE SOLIDIFIED
FRONT-RUNNERS HAVE SOLIDIFIED THEIR SPOT AT THE TOP.
THEIR SPOT AT THE TOP. A NEW POLL FROM NBC NEWS AND THE
A NEW POLL FROM NBC NEWS AND THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL" SHOWS JOE
"WALL STREET JOURNAL" SHOWS JOE BIDEN AND ELIZABETH WARREN BOTH
BIDEN AND ELIZABETH WARREN BOTH UP SINCE JULY, WHILE BERNIE
UP SINCE JULY, WHILE BERNIE SANDERS HOLDING STEADY IN THIRD.
SANDERS HOLDING STEADY IN THIRD. BUT MAYBE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT,
BUT MAYBE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT, THE POLL PAINTS THE PICTURE OF
THE POLL PAINTS THE PICTURE OF AN ELECTORATE THAT’S ACTUALLY
AN ELECTORATE THAT’S ACTUALLY PRETTY UNDECIDED AND HUNGRY FOR
PRETTY UNDECIDED AND HUNGRY FOR CHANGE
CHANGE LESS THAN FIVE MONTHS BEFORE THE
LESS THAN FIVE MONTHS BEFORE THE FIRST VOTES ARE CAST, JUST 9% OF
FIRST VOTES ARE CAST, JUST 9% OF VOTERS SAY THEY HAVE MADE UP
VOTERS SAY THEY HAVE MADE UP THEIR MINDS, AND 56% SAY THEY
THEIR MINDS, AND 56% SAY THEY PREFER A CANDIDATE WHO WILL
PREFER A CANDIDATE WHO WILL PROPOSE LARGE-SCALE POLICIES
PROPOSE LARGE-SCALE POLICIES THAT MIGHT BE MORE EXPENSIVE AND
THAT MIGHT BE MORE EXPENSIVE AND HARDER TO PASS, BUT THEY WILL
HARDER TO PASS, BUT THEY WILL LEAD TO GREATER CHANGE
LEAD TO GREATER CHANGE NBC NEWS NATIONAL POLITICAL
NBC NEWS NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT AND ONE OF MY
CORRESPONDENT AND ONE OF MY ALL-TIME FAVORITES, STEVE
ALL-TIME FAVORITES, STEVE KORNACKI IS HERE TO DIG DEEPER
KORNACKI IS HERE TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE NUMBERS
INTO THE NUMBERS WHAT STICKS OUT TO YOU, STEVE?
WHAT STICKS OUT TO YOU, STEVE? >> A COUPLE THINGS, STEPHANIE.
>> A COUPLE THINGS, STEPHANIE. YOU MENTIONED IT, IT IS THE FACT
YOU MENTIONED IT, IT IS THE FACT THAT ELIZABETH WARREN -- WE’VE
THAT ELIZABETH WARREN -- WE’VE BEEN TALKING FOR A LONG TIME
BEEN TALKING FOR A LONG TIME ABOUT IS IT WARREN OR SANDERS IN
ABOUT IS IT WARREN OR SANDERS IN SECOND PLACE
SECOND PLACE BIDEN CLEARLY IN FIRST
BIDEN CLEARLY IN FIRST WELL, HERE IN OUR POLL, YOU SEE
WELL, HERE IN OUR POLL, YOU SEE ELIZABETH WARREN CLEARLY IN
ELIZABETH WARREN CLEARLY IN SECOND PLACE AND NOTABLY
SECOND PLACE AND NOTABLY DO THE MATH HERE
DO THE MATH HERE ELIZABETH WARREN CLOSER TO FIRST
ELIZABETH WARREN CLOSER TO FIRST PLACE IN THIS POLL, CLOSER TO
PLACE IN THIS POLL, CLOSER TO BIDEN THAN SHE IS TO SANDERS
BIDEN THAN SHE IS TO SANDERS SO WE HAVE WARREN ATTAINING SOME
SO WE HAVE WARREN ATTAINING SOME SEPARATION FROM SANDERS.
SEPARATION FROM SANDERS. LET’S SEE IF THAT KEEPS UP IN
LET’S SEE IF THAT KEEPS UP IN OTHER POLLS THAT COME OUT.
OTHER POLLS THAT COME OUT. ALSO, WHY IS WARREN SURGING
ALSO, WHY IS WARREN SURGING RIGHT NOW?
RIGHT NOW? TWO THINGS
TWO THINGS THERE IS, IF YOU DID SORT OF A
THERE IS, IF YOU DID SORT OF A INVENTORY
INVENTORY VEN DIAGRAM OF WARREN AND
VEN DIAGRAM OF WARREN AND SANDERS SUPPORT, THERE’S BEEN
SANDERS SUPPORT, THERE’S BEEN SOME OVERLAP TO THE EXTENT THAT
SOME OVERLAP TO THE EXTENT THAT OVERLAP EXISTS, WARREN NOW SEEMS
OVERLAP EXISTS, WARREN NOW SEEMS TO BE GETTING THE BETTER OF IT
TO BE GETTING THE BETTER OF IT FROM SANDERS
FROM SANDERS ALSO THIS, KAMALA HARRIS,
ALSO THIS, KAMALA HARRIS, REMEMBER EARLIER THIS SUMMER
REMEMBER EARLIER THIS SUMMER POLLS HAD HER MOVING UP CLOSER
POLLS HAD HER MOVING UP CLOSER TO 20% AFTER THAT FIRST DEBATE,
TO 20% AFTER THAT FIRST DEBATE, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO JUST 5% IN
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO JUST 5% IN OUR NEW POLL
OUR NEW POLL AND WARREN SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
AND WARREN SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN BENEFICIARY OF KAMALA HARRIS’
BENEFICIARY OF KAMALA HARRIS’ SLIDE.
SLIDE. SO THAT’S WHY SHE’S AT 25%
SO THAT’S WHY SHE’S AT 25% THERE.
THERE. THIS, I THINK, AN IMPORTANT
THIS, I THINK, AN IMPORTANT DIVIDE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
DIVIDE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WE TALK ABOUT THIS A LOT
WE TALK ABOUT THIS A LOT WHITE VOTERS, LOOK AT THIS
WHITE VOTERS, LOOK AT THIS ELIZABETH WARREN NOW LEADING,
ELIZABETH WARREN NOW LEADING, 28%-27% OVER BIDEN AMONG WHITE
28%-27% OVER BIDEN AMONG WHITE VOTERS
VOTERS BLACK VOTERS, DIFFERENT STORY.
BLACK VOTERS, DIFFERENT STORY. AGAIN, BIDEN CONTINUES TO BE FAR
AGAIN, BIDEN CONTINUES TO BE FAR AHEAD HERE
AHEAD HERE WARREN NOW ACTUALLY MOVING INTO
WARREN NOW ACTUALLY MOVING INTO DOUBLE DIGITS.
DOUBLE DIGITS. WE HAVEN’T SEEN HER BEFORE
WE HAVEN’T SEEN HER BEFORE GETTING DOUBLE DIGITS AMONG
GETTING DOUBLE DIGITS AMONG BLACK VOTERS
BLACK VOTERS BUT WHY THIS DIVIDE IS SO
BUT WHY THIS DIVIDE IS SO CRUCIAL, THINK ABOUT THIS.
CRUCIAL, THINK ABOUT THIS. THE FIRST TWO STATES THAT VOTE,
THE FIRST TWO STATES THAT VOTE, IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE,
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE STATES.
OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE STATES. IF WARREN WERE TO WIN THOSE TWO
IF WARREN WERE TO WIN THOSE TWO STATES, IT DOES RAISE THE
STATES, IT DOES RAISE THE QUESTION OF BIDEN’S BLACK
QUESTION OF BIDEN’S BLACK SUPPORT, WHICH WOULD START TO
SUPPORT, WHICH WOULD START TO COME INTO PLAY WHEN YOU GET DOWN
COME INTO PLAY WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO SOUTH CAROLINA.
TO SOUTH CAROLINA. WOULD THAT SUPPORT HOLD IF JOE
WOULD THAT SUPPORT HOLD IF JOE BIDEN CAN’T HOLD OFF ELIZABETH
BIDEN CAN’T HOLD OFF ELIZABETH WARREN IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
WARREN IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAMPSHIRE?
HAMPSHIRE? THAT’S A FORMULA WE’VE SEEN
THAT’S A FORMULA WE’VE SEEN BEFORE
BEFORE THAT’S HOW JOHN KERRY GOT THE
THAT’S HOW JOHN KERRY GOT THE NOMINATION IN 2004
NOMINATION IN 2004 YOU WIN IOWA, YOU WIN NEW
YOU WIN IOWA, YOU WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND THEN YOU BUILD
HAMPSHIRE, AND THEN YOU BUILD SUPPORT AMONG AFRICAN-AMERICANS
SUPPORT AMONG AFRICAN-AMERICANS AND OTHER CONSTITUENCIES AFTER
AND OTHER CONSTITUENCIES AFTER THAT
THAT THAT’S HAPPENED BEFORE, RAISES
THAT’S HAPPENED BEFORE, RAISES THE QUESTION, STEPHANIE, IF
THE QUESTION, STEPHANIE, IF ELIZABETH WARREN MIGHT BE
ELIZABETH WARREN MIGHT BE SETTING HERSELF UP FOR SOMETHING
SETTING HERSELF UP FOR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
LIKE THAT. AND THEN THE AGE DIVIDE.
AND THEN THE AGE DIVIDE. WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS
WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS ONE ALL CAMPAIGN
ONE ALL CAMPAIGN IT CAN BE ENORMOUS
IT CAN BE ENORMOUS BERNIE SANDERS LEADING AMONG
BERNIE SANDERS LEADING AMONG VOTERS UNDER 35.
VOTERS UNDER 35. JOE BIDEN TRAILING ANDREW YANG
JOE BIDEN TRAILING ANDREW YANG AMONG VOTERS UNDER 35.
AMONG VOTERS UNDER 35. YOU FLIP IT DOWN TO OVER 65,
YOU FLIP IT DOWN TO OVER 65, BIDEN FAR OUT IN FRONT
BIDEN FAR OUT IN FRONT YOU DON’T EVEN SEE BERNIE
YOU DON’T EVEN SEE BERNIE SANDERS’ NAME HERE
SANDERS’ NAME HERE HE’S AT 3% THERE
HE’S AT 3% THERE >> ALL RIGHT, STEVE.
>> ALL RIGHT, STEVE. THANK YOU SO MUCH.
THANK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING THE CONVERSATION,
JOINING THE CONVERSATION, VICTORIA DeFRANCESCO SOTO,
VICTORIA DeFRANCESCO SOTO, PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS, NOAH ROCKMAN, ASSOCIATE
TEXAS, NOAH ROCKMAN, ASSOCIATE EDITOR AT "COMMENTARY" MAGAZINE
EDITOR AT "COMMENTARY" MAGAZINE AND JOEL "HOUSE OF PAYNE,"
AND JOEL "HOUSE OF PAYNE," DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST WHO WORKED
DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST WHO WORKED ON HILLARY CLINTON’S 2016
ON HILLARY CLINTON’S 2016 CAMPAIGN
CAMPAIGN VICTORIA, LADIES FIRST
VICTORIA, LADIES FIRST BIDEN AND WARREN BOTH ON THE
BIDEN AND WARREN BOTH ON THE RISE, BUT ONE THING THAT STICKS
RISE, BUT ONE THING THAT STICKS OUT FROM THIS POLL IS THE
OUT FROM THIS POLL IS THE ENTHUSIASM AND THE MOMENTUM THAT
ENTHUSIASM AND THE MOMENTUM THAT ELIZABETH WARREN HAS
ELIZABETH WARREN HAS WHAT’S YOUR TAKE
WHAT’S YOUR TAKE >> SHE’S IN A VERY GOOD POSITION
>> SHE’S IN A VERY GOOD POSITION RIGHT NOW, STEPHANIE
RIGHT NOW, STEPHANIE SO, EVEN THOUGH BIDEN IS ON TOP
SO, EVEN THOUGH BIDEN IS ON TOP IN THE POLLS, WE SEE THAT SOUTH
IN THE POLLS, WE SEE THAT SOUTH CAROLINA, AS STEVE MENTIONED,
CAROLINA, AS STEVE MENTIONED, MIGHT BE AN ACHILLES’ HEEL
MIGHT BE AN ACHILLES’ HEEL HE’S DOING REALLY WELL NOW, BUT
HE’S DOING REALLY WELL NOW, BUT IF IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE GOES,
IF IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE GOES, HE MIGHT LOSE THAT
HE MIGHT LOSE THAT I WENT BACK TO 2007, PULLED OUT
I WENT BACK TO 2007, PULLED OUT MY POLLS, AND I SAW THAT AT
MY POLLS, AND I SAW THAT AT ABOUT THIS TIME IN 2007, HILLARY
ABOUT THIS TIME IN 2007, HILLARY CLINTON LED BARACK OBAMA IN
CLINTON LED BARACK OBAMA IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WITH BLACK
SOUTH CAROLINA AND WITH BLACK VOTERS IN GENERAL BY ABOUT 20
VOTERS IN GENERAL BY ABOUT 20 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
PERCENTAGE POINTS. BY JANUARY, THAT EVAPORATED.
BY JANUARY, THAT EVAPORATED. SO, THAT IS AN ACHILLES’ HEEL
SO, THAT IS AN ACHILLES’ HEEL FOR BIDEN.
FOR BIDEN. AND WE ALSO SEE THE FACT THAT
AND WE ALSO SEE THE FACT THAT BIDEN AND WARREN ARE NECK AND
BIDEN AND WARREN ARE NECK AND NECK WITH DELEGATES, AND
NECK WITH DELEGATES, AND DELEGATES ARE WHAT ACTUALLY
DELEGATES ARE WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS HERE IN THE CONTEST.
MATTERS HERE IN THE CONTEST. AND FINALLY, I’M GOING TO GIVE
AND FINALLY, I’M GOING TO GIVE YOU MY BUMPER STICKER COUNT.
YOU MY BUMPER STICKER COUNT. DISPATCH FROM AUSTIN, TEXAS, I
DISPATCH FROM AUSTIN, TEXAS, I HAVE BEEN SEEING MORE AND MORE
HAVE BEEN SEEING MORE AND MORE BUMPER STICKERS FOR WARREN THAN
BUMPER STICKERS FOR WARREN THAN I HAVE FOR ANY OTHER CANDIDATE
I HAVE FOR ANY OTHER CANDIDATE SO I THINK SHE IS IN A VERY GOOD
SO I THINK SHE IS IN A VERY GOOD POSITION HERE.
POSITION HERE. >> ALL RIGHT, JOEL, ELIZABETH
>> ALL RIGHT, JOEL, ELIZABETH WARREN SPOKE TO OUR COLLEAGUE,
WARREN SPOKE TO OUR COLLEAGUE, RACHEL MADDOW, LAST NIGHT.
RACHEL MADDOW, LAST NIGHT. AND ONE OF THE THINGS THEY
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THEY TALKED ABOUT WAS THE SELFIE
TALKED ABOUT WAS THE SELFIE PHOTOS
PHOTOS THE NIGHT BEFORE WHEN SHE HELD A
THE NIGHT BEFORE WHEN SHE HELD A RALLY IN WASHINGTON SQUARE PARK,
RALLY IN WASHINGTON SQUARE PARK, SHE STAYED FOR FOUR HOURS TO
SHE STAYED FOR FOUR HOURS TO TAKE SELFIES WITH SUPPORTERS
TAKE SELFIES WITH SUPPORTERS LET’S TAKE A LISTEN.
LET’S TAKE A LISTEN. >> AND YOU KNOW, YEAH, I WAS
>> AND YOU KNOW, YEAH, I WAS THERE FOUR HOURS, BUT I’LL TELL
THERE FOUR HOURS, BUT I’LL TELL YOU WHAT, SO WAS THE LAST GUY IN
YOU WHAT, SO WAS THE LAST GUY IN LINE
LINE AND HE’S IN.
AND HE’S IN. HE’S ALL THE WAY IN THIS FIGHT
HE’S ALL THE WAY IN THIS FIGHT >> WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT
>> WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT HOW SHE’S RUNNING THAT CAMPAIGN?
HOW SHE’S RUNNING THAT CAMPAIGN? BECAUSE THOSE FOUR HOURS OF
BECAUSE THOSE FOUR HOURS OF SELFIES, SHE DIDN’T NEED TO BE
SELFIES, SHE DIDN’T NEED TO BE AT FUND-RAISERS.
AT FUND-RAISERS. THAT’S THE GREATEST FREE
THAT’S THE GREATEST FREE ADVERTISING YOU COULD THINK OF,
ADVERTISING YOU COULD THINK OF, BECAUSE EVERY PERSON THERE
BECAUSE EVERY PERSON THERE TAKING A PICTURE YOU KNOW IS
TAKING A PICTURE YOU KNOW IS POSTING IT ON SOCIAL
POSTING IT ON SOCIAL >> IT ALSO KIND OF BELIES THE
>> IT ALSO KIND OF BELIES THE CENTRAL ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE OF
CENTRAL ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE OF THE WARREN BID, WHICH IS
THE WARREN BID, WHICH IS ENTHUSIASM, RIGHT?
ENTHUSIASM, RIGHT? AND IT’S EXPANDING THE BASE.
AND IT’S EXPANDING THE BASE. AND THAT’S WHAT SHE’S DOING.
AND THAT’S WHAT SHE’S DOING. SHE’S GOT PEOPLE WHO ARE WAITING
SHE’S GOT PEOPLE WHO ARE WAITING HAPPILY IN LINE FOR FOUR HOURS
HAPPILY IN LINE FOR FOUR HOURS AND BY THE WAY, IT’S A CONTRAST
AND BY THE WAY, IT’S A CONTRAST TO SOME OF THE OTHERS IN THE
TO SOME OF THE OTHERS IN THE FIELD.
FIELD. DO YOU THINK THAT JOE BIDEN
DO YOU THINK THAT JOE BIDEN COULD DO FOUR HOURS OF SELFIES
COULD DO FOUR HOURS OF SELFIES AFTER --
AFTER -- >> WE DON’T KNOW
>> WE DON’T KNOW WE DON’T KNOW.
WE DON’T KNOW. >> NO, BUT --
>> NO, BUT -- >> I MEAN, THAT’S SORT OF AN
>> I MEAN, THAT’S SORT OF AN ASSUMPTION, THE OLD GUY CAN’T DO
ASSUMPTION, THE OLD GUY CAN’T DO IT FOR FOUR HOURS.
IT FOR FOUR HOURS. WE DON’T KNOW.
WE DON’T KNOW. >> BUT I GUESS THE POINT IS,
>> BUT I GUESS THE POINT IS, IT’S UNSAID THAT SHE’S GOT THE
IT’S UNSAID THAT SHE’S GOT THE ENDURANCE, THAT SHE’S GOT THE
ENDURANCE, THAT SHE’S GOT THE ABILITY TO DO THAT
ABILITY TO DO THAT ALSO, I WOULD SAY THIS -- THE
ALSO, I WOULD SAY THIS -- THE CENTRAL QUESTION I’M ASKING
CENTRAL QUESTION I’M ASKING MYSELF NOW IS, CAN YOU SELL A
MYSELF NOW IS, CAN YOU SELL A PROGRESSIVE TO MODERATES OR CAN
PROGRESSIVE TO MODERATES OR CAN YOU SELL A MODERATE TO
YOU SELL A MODERATE TO PROGRESSIVES
PROGRESSIVES AND I THINK ELIZABETH WARREN IS
AND I THINK ELIZABETH WARREN IS DEMONSTRATING HERSELF AS
DEMONSTRATING HERSELF AS SOMEBODY WHO IS SAYING I’M THE
SOMEBODY WHO IS SAYING I’M THE PROGRESSIVE YOU CAN SELL TO
PROGRESSIVE YOU CAN SELL TO MODERATES.
MODERATES. I THINK SHE’S STARTING TO SHOW
I THINK SHE’S STARTING TO SHOW THAT SHE CAN GROW --
THAT SHE CAN GROW -- >> BUT HOLD ON --
>> BUT HOLD ON -- >> -- HER ABILITY TO BE THE TYPE
>> -- HER ABILITY TO BE THE TYPE OF CANDIDATE THAT CAN PULL
OF CANDIDATE THAT CAN PULL TOGETHER A WINNING COALITION.
TOGETHER A WINNING COALITION. >> NOAH, DO YOU BELIEVE THAT
>> NOAH, DO YOU BELIEVE THAT SHE’S THE PROGRESSIVE THAT YOU
SHE’S THE PROGRESSIVE THAT YOU COULD SELL TO MODERATES OR THAT
COULD SELL TO MODERATES OR THAT MORE PROGRESSIVES ARE POPPING
MORE PROGRESSIVES ARE POPPING UP, ESPECIALLY THE YOUTH VOTE
UP, ESPECIALLY THE YOUTH VOTE THAT WASN’T VOTING BEFORE?
THAT WASN’T VOTING BEFORE? BECAUSE I’M NOT SURE IF YOU’RE
BECAUSE I’M NOT SURE IF YOU’RE SEEING CENTRISTS SAY, YEAH, I
SEEING CENTRISTS SAY, YEAH, I CAN GET ON THIS TRAIN.
CAN GET ON THIS TRAIN. >> DEMOCRATS HAVE TO BE A LITTLE
>> DEMOCRATS HAVE TO BE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT ELIZABETH
CONCERNED ABOUT ELIZABETH WARREN’S CENTRAL ORGANIZING
WARREN’S CENTRAL ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE, WHICH I THINK WAS
PRINCIPLE, WHICH I THINK WAS STATED AMIABLY HERE, ADMIRABLEY,
STATED AMIABLY HERE, ADMIRABLEY, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THAT JOE
WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THAT JOE BIDEN WANTS TO REBUILD THE
BIDEN WANTS TO REBUILD THE BARACK OBAMA COALITION, WHICH IS
BARACK OBAMA COALITION, WHICH IS TESTED
TESTED ELIZABETH WARREN CAN CREATE A
ELIZABETH WARREN CAN CREATE A NEW COALITION FROM
NEW COALITION FROM LOW-PROPENSITY VOTERS.
LOW-PROPENSITY VOTERS. YOUNG PEOPLE ARE LOW-PROPEITY
YOUNG PEOPLE ARE LOW-PROPEITY VOTERS.
VOTERS. >> WHAT DOES THAT MEAN
>> WHAT DOES THAT MEAN >> THEY DON’T ALWAYS SHOW UP
>> THEY DON’T ALWAYS SHOW UP THEY SAY THEY’RE GOING TO SHOW
THEY SAY THEY’RE GOING TO SHOW UP, AND NOT ALWAYS DO THEY
UP, AND NOT ALWAYS DO THEY THEY DID IN 2018
THEY DID IN 2018 THEY MIGHT IN 2020
THEY MIGHT IN 2020 DONALD TRUMP IS THE ORGANIZING
DONALD TRUMP IS THE ORGANIZING PRINCIPAL THERE.
PRINCIPAL THERE. THAT MIGHT WORK.
THAT MIGHT WORK. I FEEL IN THE PRESS A SENSE THAT
I FEEL IN THE PRESS A SENSE THAT THERE IS INEVITABLE MOMENTUM FOR
THERE IS INEVITABLE MOMENTUM FOR ELIZABETH WARREN, THAT THE
ELIZABETH WARREN, THAT THE TRAJECTORY FOR HER IS
TRAJECTORY FOR HER IS PREORDAINED --
PREORDAINED -- >> WHY, BECAUSE EVERYONE’S
>> WHY, BECAUSE EVERYONE’S FOCUSING ON HER?
FOCUSING ON HER? >> I FEEL THERE’S A LOT OF FOCUS
>> I FEEL THERE’S A LOT OF FOCUS ON HER
ON HER WHEN WE HAVE A POLL OUT OF IOWA
WHEN WE HAVE A POLL OUT OF IOWA TODAY THAT SHOWS JOE BIDEN UP,
TODAY THAT SHOWS JOE BIDEN UP, EVERY POLL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN
EVERY POLL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN SEPTEMBER SHOWS JOE BIDEN UP
SEPTEMBER SHOWS JOE BIDEN UP HE IS PROHIBITIVE IN SOUTH
HE IS PROHIBITIVE IN SOUTH CAROLINA
CAROLINA HE IS DOING VERY WELL IN NEVADA.
HE IS DOING VERY WELL IN NEVADA. AND AFTER THAT IS SUPER TUESDAY,
AND AFTER THAT IS SUPER TUESDAY, WHICH IS CALIFORNIA, TEXAS,
WHICH IS CALIFORNIA, TEXAS, MASSACHUSETTS, ALL THESE PLACES
MASSACHUSETTS, ALL THESE PLACES WITH REALLY BIG MEDIA MARKETS,
WITH REALLY BIG MEDIA MARKETS, SO YOU CAN DO A LOT OF SELFIES,
SO YOU CAN DO A LOT OF SELFIES, BUT YOU HAVE TO PLAY IN HOUSTON,
BUT YOU HAVE TO PLAY IN HOUSTON, YOU HAVE TO PLAY IN LOS ANGELES,
YOU HAVE TO PLAY IN LOS ANGELES, SAN FRANCISCO, BIG MEDIA
SAN FRANCISCO, BIG MEDIA MARKETS.
MARKETS. AND YOU NEED A LOT OF MONEY FOR
AND YOU NEED A LOT OF MONEY FOR IT
IT SO, IF YOU’RE NOT DOING BIG
SO, IF YOU’RE NOT DOING BIG FUND-RAISERS, YOU MIGHT NOT BE
FUND-RAISERS, YOU MIGHT NOT BE COMPETITIVE.
COMPETITIVE. >> STEPHANIE, QUICKLY.
>> STEPHANIE, QUICKLY. MY ARGUMENT IS, THE PROBLEM
MY ARGUMENT IS, THE PROBLEM DEMOCRATS HAD IN 2016 IS THEY
DEMOCRATS HAD IN 2016 IS THEY COULD NOT GET THE BASIC ENOUGH
COULD NOT GET THE BASIC ENOUGH TO SHOW UP, PLACES LIKE
TO SHOW UP, PLACES LIKE MILWAUKEE, DETROIT AND
MILWAUKEE, DETROIT AND PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA IF YOU HAVE A CANDIDATE THAT IS
IF YOU HAVE A CANDIDATE THAT IS EXPANDING THAT PROGRESSIVE BASE,
EXPANDING THAT PROGRESSIVE BASE, YOU CAN CHANGE THE MAP TO THE
YOU CAN CHANGE THE MAP TO THE POINT WHERE YOU ACTUALLY AREN’T
POINT WHERE YOU ACTUALLY AREN’T GOING TO BE RELIANT UPON ANXIOUS
GOING TO BE RELIANT UPON ANXIOUS TRUMP VOTERS TO COME OVER.
TRUMP VOTERS TO COME OVER. SO, I THINK SHE IS APPROACHING
SO, I THINK SHE IS APPROACHING THIS FROM A DIFFERENT
THIS FROM A DIFFERENT STANDPOINT, AND I THINK IT’S
STANDPOINT, AND I THINK IT’S SHOWING THAT IT CAN BE
SHOWING THAT IT CAN BE SUCCESSFUL FOR HER
SUCCESSFUL FOR HER >> VICTORIA, NOAH MAKES ME THINK
>> VICTORIA, NOAH MAKES ME THINK MONEY AND KAMALA HARRIS.
MONEY AND KAMALA HARRIS. SHE’S DOWN EIGHT POINTS, NOW
SHE’S DOWN EIGHT POINTS, NOW BEHIND PETE BUTTIGIEG.
BEHIND PETE BUTTIGIEG. AND OUR REPORTERS WHO ARE
AND OUR REPORTERS WHO ARE COVERING HER HAVE SAID SHE
COVERING HER HAVE SAID SHE HASN’T HELD A PUBLIC EVENT SINCE
HASN’T HELD A PUBLIC EVENT SINCE SEPTEMBER 7th, BUT WHAT SHE HAS
SEPTEMBER 7th, BUT WHAT SHE HAS DONE IS HAS BEEN RAISING MONEY,
DONE IS HAS BEEN RAISING MONEY, QUIETLY OUT THERE RAISING,
QUIETLY OUT THERE RAISING, RAISING, RAISING
RAISING, RAISING IS THAT THE RIGHT STRATEGY,
IS THAT THE RIGHT STRATEGY, GIVEN THAT WHEN YOU WANT TO MAKE
GIVEN THAT WHEN YOU WANT TO MAKE IT ON THE BIG STAGE, YOU NEED A
IT ON THE BIG STAGE, YOU NEED A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY TO DO IT?
WHOLE LOT OF MONEY TO DO IT? >> YOU DO NEED A WHOLE LOT OF
>> YOU DO NEED A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY, BUT YOU ALSO NEED THE
MONEY, BUT YOU ALSO NEED THE PERSONAL TOUCH, YOU NEED THE
PERSONAL TOUCH, YOU NEED THE PRESSING OF THE FLESH, THE
PRESSING OF THE FLESH, THE GETTING OUT THERE, THE DOING THE
GETTING OUT THERE, THE DOING THE SELFIES.
SELFIES. IN AN IDEAL WORLD, YOU WANT
IN AN IDEAL WORLD, YOU WANT BOTH, YOU WANT A TON OF MONEY
BOTH, YOU WANT A TON OF MONEY AND YOU WANT THAT PERSONAL
AND YOU WANT THAT PERSONAL CONTACT, SOMETHING WHICH, BY THE
CONTACT, SOMETHING WHICH, BY THE WAY, BETO DID VERY WELL WHEN HE
WAY, BETO DID VERY WELL WHEN HE RAN FOR SENATE HERE IN TEXAS
RAN FOR SENATE HERE IN TEXAS SO, I THINK WHAT KAMALA, IF I
SO, I THINK WHAT KAMALA, IF I HAD A CRYSTAL BALL HERE IS DOING
HAD A CRYSTAL BALL HERE IS DOING IS SETTING HERSELF UP FOR THE
IS SETTING HERSELF UP FOR THE LONG GAME, TO SURVIVE PAST IOWA,
LONG GAME, TO SURVIVE PAST IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA,
NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA, SO SHE CAN CONTINUE ON THROUGH
SO SHE CAN CONTINUE ON THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY, AND HOPEFULLY,
SUPER TUESDAY, AND HOPEFULLY, GET ON THE SHORT LIST FOR VP,
GET ON THE SHORT LIST FOR VP, SHORT LIST FOR SOME MAJOR
SHORT LIST FOR SOME MAJOR CABINET POSITION IF THE Ds WIN
CABINET POSITION IF THE Ds WIN BUT ONE THING I WANT TO POINT
BUT ONE THING I WANT TO POINT OUT QUICKLY IN TERMS OF THE
OUT QUICKLY IN TERMS OF THE WARREN DISCUSSION WE’VE BEEN
WARREN DISCUSSION WE’VE BEEN HAVING IS, IS SHE GOING TO BE
HAVING IS, IS SHE GOING TO BE ABLE TO KNOCK BERNIE OFF
ABLE TO KNOCK BERNIE OFF BECAUSE IF BERNIE HOLDS ON LIKE
BECAUSE IF BERNIE HOLDS ON LIKE HE DID IN 2016 -- HE WOULD NOT
HE DID IN 2016 -- HE WOULD NOT LET GO, HE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
LET GO, HE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE RACE -- IF BERNIE STAYS IN THE
RACE -- IF BERNIE STAYS IN THE RACE, HE IS GOING TO KEEP THAT
RACE, HE IS GOING TO KEEP THAT SOLID BLOCK OF SUPPORTERS THAT
SOLID BLOCK OF SUPPORTERS THAT HE’S CONSISTENTLY HAD, AND
HE’S CONSISTENTLY HAD, AND THAT’S GOING TO KEEP WARREN FROM
THAT’S GOING TO KEEP WARREN FROM ULTIMATELY GETTING THE
ULTIMATELY GETTING THE NOMINATION AND IT GOING TO
NOMINATION AND IT GOING TO BIDEN.
BIDEN. SO FOR ME, ONE OF THE BIG
SO FOR ME, ONE OF THE BIG QUESTION MARKS IS WHAT’S GOING
QUESTION MARKS IS WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN TO BERNIE?
TO HAPPEN TO BERNIE? DOES HE STAY
DOES HE STAY OR CEDE THE WAY TO WARREN?
OR CEDE THE WAY TO WARREN? >> OKAY, WELL, PUT LOGIC ASIDE
>> OKAY, WELL, PUT LOGIC ASIDE KNOWING BERNIE, KNOWING WHO HE
KNOWING BERNIE, KNOWING WHO HE IS, KNOWING HIS CAMPAIGN AND
IS, KNOWING HIS CAMPAIGN AND WHAT HE HAS HAD IN THE PAST AND
WHAT HE HAS HAD IN THE PAST AND KNOWING THE NUMBERS, IF THEY
KNOWING THE NUMBERS, IF THEY WERE TO CONSOLIDATE THE
WERE TO CONSOLIDATE THE PROGRESSIVE BASE UNDER ONE OF
PROGRESSIVE BASE UNDER ONE OF THE TWO, AND IN THIS CASE IT
THE TWO, AND IN THIS CASE IT SEEMS MORE ELIZABETH WARREN,
SEEMS MORE ELIZABETH WARREN, WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO JOE BIDEN?
WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO JOE BIDEN? DO YOU SEE, NOAH, BERNIE SANDERS
DO YOU SEE, NOAH, BERNIE SANDERS LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND
LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT, MAYBE
SAYING, YOU KNOW WHAT, MAYBE IT’S TIME FOR ME TO STEP OUT
IT’S TIME FOR ME TO STEP OUT >> I THINK HE WOULD LOOK AT
>> I THINK HE WOULD LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS AND PROBABLY SAY
THOSE NUMBERS AND PROBABLY SAY IT’S TIME FOR ME TO BE A LITTLE
IT’S TIME FOR ME TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARDS
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARDS ELIZABETH WARREN
ELIZABETH WARREN I MEAN, IF WE’RE BEGINNING TO
I MEAN, IF WE’RE BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND -- AGAIN, THERE’S
UNDERSTAND -- AGAIN, THERE’S ANOTHER CONCRETE HERE THAT THESE
ANOTHER CONCRETE HERE THAT THESE PROGRESSIVES ARE COMPETING FOR
PROGRESSIVES ARE COMPETING FOR CERTAIN DISTINCT POOLS OF
CERTAIN DISTINCT POOLS OF VOTERS
VOTERS THERE’S SOME OVERLAP, BUT NOT A
THERE’S SOME OVERLAP, BUT NOT A LOT.
LOT. THAT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE TO
THAT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE TO ME
ME OF COURSE THEY’RE FIGHTING FOR
OF COURSE THEY’RE FIGHTING FOR THE SAME VOTERS.
THE SAME VOTERS. THERE CAN BE ONE PROGRESSIVE TO
THERE CAN BE ONE PROGRESSIVE TO JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN OR
JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN OR BERNIE SANDERS
BERNIE SANDERS BERNIE SANDERS IS A FIGHTER AND
BERNIE SANDERS IS A FIGHTER AND THINKS HE CAN STAY IN FOR THE
THINKS HE CAN STAY IN FOR THE LONG HAUL.
LONG HAUL. AND WHEN THE CANDIDATES, WHEN
AND WHEN THE CANDIDATES, WHEN ONE CONCEDES OF THE FACT THAT
ONE CONCEDES OF THE FACT THAT THIS CAN BE ONLY ONE, THIS IS
THIS CAN BE ONLY ONE, THIS IS HIGHLANDER, THEY WILL HAVE TO GO
HIGHLANDER, THEY WILL HAVE TO GO AFTER EACH OTHER
AFTER EACH OTHER AND FRANKLY, NEITHER HAVE SHOWN
AND FRANKLY, NEITHER HAVE SHOWN INTEREST IN DOING SO, BUT IF
INTEREST IN DOING SO, BUT IF BERNIE SANDERS IS THE FIRST TO
BERNIE SANDERS IS THE FIRST TO HAVE THAT EPIPHANY, I CAN SEE
HAVE THAT EPIPHANY, I CAN SEE HIM GOING AFTER ELIZABETH
HIM GOING AFTER ELIZABETH WARREN’S RECORD ON HER CORPORATE
WARREN’S RECORD ON HER CORPORATE ATTORNEY WORK, HER PAST AS A
ATTORNEY WORK, HER PAST AS A REGISTERED REPUBLICAN.
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN. ALL THAT STUFF IS REALLY STILL
ALL THAT STUFF IS REALLY STILL UNCHARTED TERRITORY FOR THE
UNCHARTED TERRITORY FOR THE DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. >> THEN IS IT STILL ANYONE’S
>> THEN IS IT STILL ANYONE’S GAME
GAME AND CLEARLY FOR BERNIE SANDERS,
AND CLEARLY FOR BERNIE SANDERS, IT’S NOT A TIME TO STAND STILL,
IT’S NOT A TIME TO STAND STILL, IT’S TIME TO STAND UP OR STEP
IT’S TIME TO STAND UP OR STEP OUT.
OUT. AND I WANT TO LOOK AT HISTORY
AND I WANT TO LOOK AT HISTORY FOR A MINUTE, BECAUSE IT AMAZES
FOR A MINUTE, BECAUSE IT AMAZES ME FROM THIS POLL, ONLY 9% SAY
ME FROM THIS POLL, ONLY 9% SAY THEY’RE DECIDED, BECAUSE LET’S
THEY’RE DECIDED, BECAUSE LET’S LOOK BACK.
LOOK BACK. I THINK VICTORIA MENTIONED IT
I THINK VICTORIA MENTIONED IT EARLIER, BUT IN 2008, HILLARY
EARLIER, BUT IN 2008, HILLARY CLINTON WAS LEADING BY 18
CLINTON WAS LEADING BY 18 POINTS, RUDY GIULIANI LED BY 4
POINTS, RUDY GIULIANI LED BY 4 POINTS, RICK PERRY IN 2012 LED
POINTS, RICK PERRY IN 2012 LED BY ALMOST 8 POINTS
BY ALMOST 8 POINTS KNOWING ALL THOSE NUMBERS, WHERE
KNOWING ALL THOSE NUMBERS, WHERE WE WERE HISTORICALLY, DOES THAT
WE WERE HISTORICALLY, DOES THAT MEAN ALL THIS THAT WE’RE SAYING
MEAN ALL THIS THAT WE’RE SAYING RIGHT NOW IS NONSENSE BECAUSE
RIGHT NOW IS NONSENSE BECAUSE THIS THING, WHO KNOWS WHERE IT
THIS THING, WHO KNOWS WHERE IT GOES
GOES >> I DON’T THINK IT’S NONSENSE,
>> I DON’T THINK IT’S NONSENSE, BUT I THINK IT DOES SUGGEST THAT
BUT I THINK IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THIS IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN
THIS IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.
THE AIR. BY THE WAY, THAT IS GOING TO
BY THE WAY, THAT IS GOING TO LEND ITSELF TO LESS CANDIDATES
LEND ITSELF TO LESS CANDIDATES DECIDING I’M GOING TO JUMP OUT
DECIDING I’M GOING TO JUMP OUT NOW.
NOW. THAT MEANS THAT, WHETHER BERNIE
THAT MEANS THAT, WHETHER BERNIE SANDERS CONTINUES TO CRATER,
SANDERS CONTINUES TO CRATER, WHETHER OR NOT BUTTIGIEG OR
WHETHER OR NOT BUTTIGIEG OR HARRIS CONTINUE TO STALL OUT A
HARRIS CONTINUE TO STALL OUT A BIT, THEY’RE GOING TO BE LESS
BIT, THEY’RE GOING TO BE LESS LIKELY TO SAY I’VE GOT TO DROP
LIKELY TO SAY I’VE GOT TO DROP OUT BECAUSE THERE’S NOT A CHANCE
OUT BECAUSE THERE’S NOT A CHANCE FOR ME TO WIN THE NOMINATION
FOR ME TO WIN THE NOMINATION THERE IS STILL VERY MUCH A PATH
THERE IS STILL VERY MUCH A PATH FOR I’D SAY AT LEAST A HALF A
FOR I’D SAY AT LEAST A HALF A DOZEN OF THESE DEMOCRATS TO
DOZEN OF THESE DEMOCRATS TO STILL WIN THE NOMINATION
STILL WIN THE NOMINATION I THINK IT’S VERY WIDE OPEN, BUT
I THINK IT’S VERY WIDE OPEN, BUT I DO THINK THE TREND LINES POINT
I DO THINK THE TREND LINES POINT TO BIDEN AND WARREN BEING KIND
TO BIDEN AND WARREN BEING KIND OF THE BATTLE FOR THE SOUL OF
OF THE BATTLE FOR THE SOUL OF THE PARTY RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.
THE PARTY RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT. >> AND AS VICTORIA NOTED, THIS
>> AND AS VICTORIA NOTED, THIS IS ABOUT DELEGATES
IS ABOUT DELEGATES THE RULES OF THE NOMINATING
