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So, when we go back to the Green Revolution, Green Revolution was a technologically based
transformation whose proximate outcome was
transformation of agricultural
productivity and farm systems, but when
you think about it the
Green Revolution was successful because
of its ability to engage greater
economic systems and to facilitate
structural transformation of the economies
including the non-agricultural part of
economies.  Since the Green Revolution we
have become more complex in our
agricultural systems, food chains are
longer.  There are globalization effects,
staple crop prices are lower, the
proportion of the consumer food dollar that
goes back to the farm gate price is much
smaller.
There are unique components of the
Feed the Future countries in which we work.  So
there are different youth demographics from what
we saw during the Green Revolution.
There are political issues.  There are
finance issues.  There's a number of
distinct issues about Feed the Future.  So with
the changes over time when the change is
across countries we want to ask what are
we transforming?  And, the basis of it is
still the same.  The underlying basis is we see a
subsistence farming system that is based
on solitary farming.  An individual or household
farms, mostly their own farm in little connection
with markets to feed themselves.  We want to
change it to a system that is more
market-based.  Where there is more interaction
among agents of the economy and more
opportunity for each agent to improve
their incomes, to end poverty, to end
their own food insecurity and by doing so
contribute to a broader economic growth.
Well, what are we going to and how are we going
to get there?  A little bit of it, the
answer to this question is...in the eye of the
beholder.  So what is it that the beholder
believes is a successful transformation?  If
you believe that the overriding problem
that we will face in the next 35 years
is to produce enough food to feed a
hungry world then you may want to invest
in a highly mechanized, large-scale,
commercial, staple crop farming system.  If
you believe that the biggest sin of
mankind are those who are left behind
in poverty in rural areas then you may want to
transform the system into something with
sustainable, income-generating, rural
communities.  David Beckmann from Bread for
the World, Andrew Youn from One Acre Fund and
Bono from U2 and ONE. (laughter)
I hesitate to put U2 in there, but Bono from U2 and ONE
have all expressed similar sentiments
about those left behind.  If you believe that the
greatest threat facing us today is the
sixth great extinction and the loss of
biodiversity then you may want to think
about ways of transforming ecological
systems to preserve biodiversity.  So at
minimum you will need ecological
corridors and buffer strips within
farming systems and more likely you'll
want to move out of monocrop systems
entirely.  If you believe that the greatest
threat to your children's well-being is
the global climate change that we are
starting to see the impacts of then you
may want to transform ecologies into
integrated sustainable world
agroforestry systems that can produce
food but a number of other ecological
amenities as well.  If you are alarmed
that one of the biggest problems that we
face today is the growth of urban slums,
the inability of large cities to provide
sufficient public services, the
unemployment of youth in urban areas
then you may want to have a vision of planned
green communities in rural areas.  If you
believe that gender equity is both a goal
in itself and a key to unlocking
agricultural and structural tranformation
then you may want to change the
social systems that help define the
construct of gender and gender equality.
If you believe that the the big medical
threat to us is food-based,
non-communicable diseases then you may
want to have a vision where we actually
achieve a transition from a system of
caloric undersupply to a nutritional
system that has sufficient calories, not
oversupply of calories and sufficient
nutrient content for all individuals.  And, there
are many other systems that you can put
on this list as well.
Transforming employment systems.
Transforming behavioral systems,
How do you migrate from rural to urban
areas?  The value chain development.  Rural
non-farm employment opportunities and
even a transformation to systems that
are not based entirely on agricultural
commodities but may have some new
farming opportunities such as solar
farming or wind farming associated with them.  So
there are multiple drivers, policy levers
and indicators associated with these
multiple types of and concepts of
transformation.
How do you define success in a complex
system with a simple set of indicators?  It
is not by declaring victory on a single
indicator.  It's by trying to move a set of
issues forward maybe not achieving a
hundred percent on any issue but
advancing across the wide range of indicators.  (applause)
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