The U.S. has been considering a range of options,
from expanded economic sanctions to military
operations, as it reaches out to allies in
confronting North Korea’s latest provocations.
North Korea has been conducting missiles tests
in open defiance of U.S and i
nternational community.
U.S has deployed massive firepower around
North Korea, with more than one Carrier Strike
Group stationed in Korean waters, but has
till now refrained from taking any military action.
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes the
scenarios, and reasons that is preventing
Trump administration from using force.
So, lets get started.
While North Korea’s massive forces are largely
primitively equipped, Pyongyang possesses
the capacity to launch a devastating artillery
strike on the city of Seoul.
The opponents' capitals are just 120 miles
apart, with Seoul within 35 miles of the border.
Most of the North’s artillery pieces—numbering
in the thousands—are already in place camouflaged
and dug in.
North Korea’s artillery pieces include the
170 mm Koksan, which has a range of about
25 miles (40 km), using conventional projectiles.
However, the Seoul is well within range of
the Korean People’s Army rocket-assisted
shells—which have a range of around 40 miles
(60 km), if the guns are stationed near the border region
Being self-propelled, 170 mm Koksan can be
easily moved close to the international border.
Even with massive preemptive strike, U.S and
South Korean forces wont be able to neutralize
them fully, a decent percentage of these will
still remain working.
Covering only about 12% of the country's area,
the Seoul Capital Area is home to more than
48.2% of the national population, and is the
world's third largest urban area.
The artillery barrage will result in huge
civilian casualty apart from loss in property
and destruction of infrastructure.
North Korea has more than 1.2 million active
soldiers, and a further 7.7 million in reserve,
making its ground force one of the largest
in the world.
Its troops are bolstered by 200,000 highly
trained special ops soldiers.
These 200000-odd special operations forces
are tasked to carry out attacks on major South
Korean and American facilities in South Korea,
as well as assassinations of government officials.
The commandos would infiltrate the South by
using underground tunnels, mini-subs and Russian
Antonov An-2 biplanes during a war.
It must me noted that North Korean army is
decently equipped.
The force consists of about 4,200 tanks and
2,200 armored vehicles.
South Korea has much smaller army of around
500,000 personnel and could be overwhelmed.
Again in this case, Seoul will be in the direct
line of fire and huge fatality is expected.
The first nuke test was conducted by North
Korea on Oct. 8, 2006.
As per the United States analysts, it had
a yield of less than 1 kiloton of TNT.
Blasts have become more powerful since then.
The device tested by the North, in January
2016, had a force equivalent of 7 kilotons of TNT.
By contrast, the device detonated on Sept
2016 looks to have had a force equivalent
of 25 kilotons of TNT, according to the most
analysis.
Let us now compare these with other known
tests & explosions.
Trinity Test in New Mexico in July 1945, which
ushered in the nuclear age, had a yield of
20 kilo tons.
Hiroshima's "Little Boy" bomb had a yield
of 13-18 kilo tons whereas Nagasaki's "Fat
Man" bomb had a yield of 20–22 kilo tons
of TNT.
Overall, it is estimated that currently North
Korea has about 15 to 20 nuclear bombs, with
a cumulative explosive power of about 50 kilo
tons.
So it can be inferred that North Korea currently
has a decent nuclear arsenal in its hand,
and looking at increasing yield of its bombs,
it can be said that it will have immense destructive
power at its disposal in coming days.
North has a fairly significant ballistic missile
capability.
Some estimates show that North Korea has over
600 short-range Scud missiles, more than 200
Nodong missiles, and about 50 Musudan and
Taepodong missiles.
Apart of from that, North is testing new intermediate
range ballistic missiles.
These weapons could be used to deliver nukes
to targets around the Korean peninsula and beyond.
As evident, it is making progress in enhancing
missile range, and optimizing its atomic weapons.
Recently US has made Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD), operational in South Korea.
THAAD is an anti-ballistic missile system,
which is designed to shoot down short, medium,
and intermediate range ballistic missiles
in their terminal phase.
U.S also has stationed Arleigh Burke class
destroyers in Korean waters.
The Arleigh Burke class of guided missile
destroyers (DDGs) is the United States Navy's
first class of destroyer built around the
Aegis Combat System.
The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System
is a United States Department of Defense Missile
Defense Agency program developed to provide
missile defense against short to intermediate-range
ballistic missiles.
Aegis BMD is designed to intercept ballistic
missiles post-boost phase and prior to reentry.
It enables Arleigh Burke class to shoot down
enemy ballistic missiles by expanding the
Aegis Combat System with the addition of the
AN/SPY-1 radar and Standard missile technologies.
But both THAAD & Aegis BMD, have their share
of hits and misses in test environment, it
can be safely assumed that not all incoming
missile will be intercepted.
As we all understand, any high explosive warhead
explosion or a nuclear explosion will be a
catastrophe in densely populated civilian
area.
North Korea has enough firepower to cause
serious damages to South Korea, especially
keeping in view that Seoul is very close to
border.
A military conflict will invariably lead to
massive death toll.
This makes the military action ‘very risky’
and has prevented the U.S from going forward with it.
