Hey everyone unexceptional rounder here and
today I've got a video for you about
probability
payout and odds one of the most fundamental
concepts in poker
this video will lay the foundation for
much more advanced topics in the future
with that said let's get started
probability
ever answered the weather man say that
there's going to be a 70 percent chance
of rain
or rain is likely unlikely chance of fair
skies chance of clouds
everything has a chance nothing's for
certain that's where probability comes into
play
in the weather it happens all the time
and in poker we use probability
to determine winning situations and
losing situations
let's look at some different ways that
you can express probability and what it
really means
probability simply put is the chance
that a given event
will occur 
we look at this weather chart
we see that there are different
probabilities
expressed as percentages for various
wind speeds
affecting various parts of the country
this is probability
expressed as a percentage there are a
lot of other ways to express probability
let's talk about a few of them
probability
can be expressed as odds these odds would
read
three to one, five to four, twenty five to seventy five
as we discussed previously can be
expressed as a percentage
25 percent fifty percent seventy five
percent etc.
fractions which may look similar
to
odds would be said one out of four five
out of nine
25 out of 100 or five ninths
notice that 25 out of 100
means that the event will occur twenty
five times
out of a total possible 100 opportunities
whereas
when we speak of odds 25 to 75
would be the equivalent meaning it will
happen
25 times and it won't happen 75 times
the last way of expressing probability that
I'll talk about today is with words
impossible even chance unlikely likely
they're all ways of expressing probability
but they're not exact and they're not
numbers so we're going to leave them out of poker for
the most part but feel free to keep
using it in everyday conversation
so now we understand probability better
we know that it is the chance an event
will occur and it can be expressed using
words
odds percentages or fractions now
let's go ahead and talk about another
concept
Payouts
there are different forms of payouts you
may have seen payouts on
the top of blackjack tables or other
casino games
there's payouts in poker there's payouts in
poker tournaments there's payouts in cash
games
all a payout really is is how much you win
compared to the amount that you bet
so the payout is how much you get for
each bet and again just like probability
payouts can be expressed in a few different
ways as well let's talk about a few of them
first we'll go over the simple
definition a payout
which is the expected financial return
on investment pretty much what we were
talking about before
although blackjack as much an investment
the next one we'll discuss
is odds notice that we were also able to
express probability using odds
interesting so odds would be expressed
as
three to one four to three one to five 
now when we talk about odds
and payouts it's a little different than
odds and probabilities
here we're looking at the amount we win
compared to the amount we bet
so you'll see that I've got win to bet
here
so the catchy little saying I came up
with was
the amount you get to the amount you bet
awesome cause it rhymes right
so now take a look at the scorecard for
a horse race which
I know very little about but I do know
little bit about odds
so looking at this card or Pay out or
whatever it is we can see that there's
different payouts for different bets
the harder the thing is to predict the
more you win
predicting the top three gets you a huge
payoff of 477.8 to 2 dollars
so that's pretty pretty good odds but
that has nothing to do with the
probability that you actually pick those
three numbers right
so that's where you compare the odds to
the probability
and you look for mismatch you look for
somebody offering you
better pay out of odds than you have
probability odds when you get a mismatch
that's where you make money
that's how bookies make money that's how
casinos make money you have to
understand this concept to make money
playing poker
if you were talking about the stock market
than your payout would probably be
expressed as a percentage
you know here many people talk about the
stock market in the form of odds or
fractions
usually hear their gains as percentages
as well as the losses
so what this shows that depending on what
you're talking about. there are more
appropriate ways to express payouts and
probabilities based on what you're doing
the last one I'll mention really quickly is
words again
just like probability you can express
odds as words
big medium small you know you won a 10
bagger which actually relates to a
number which means that
your stock went up ten times your
original investment or 1000 percent
but again just like with probability
were not really interested in using
words
in poker like this 
were going to use actual numbers
so that covers payouts as you can see
payouts and probabilities can be
expressed in various ways
in poker payouts are best described only
as
odds so payout think pot odds
because that's really your payout in a
poker game is what's in the pot
and again remember that catchy saying
the amount you get
to the amount you bet
now I wanna try to explain why it makes
sense to use odds for everything
I mean it kinda makes sense intuitively because
you don't want to be mixing percentages
odds fractions when you're trying to do
math in your head at the table
so what we want to do is get on the same
page with our payout
and our probability in the form of odds
when we talk payout odds we'll express it
that as the win amount
to the bed amount as in the amount in
the pot
to the amount that you have to call
or the amount you're betting depending
on what we're talking about
if we talk probability odds it'll be
expressed as
will not win to will win as in
the number on the left is going to be
the times you don't win and the number
on the right
will be the times you do win this'll be
explained
or make sense a little bit more in the
future but for now
we're just going to go with it these are
called odds against
you want to match up your odds against
to the payout odds
this example should help you understand
it a little bit better
using odds for both probability and
payout is a good thing
and this example should show you why it's
so much
easier coin toss what's the probability
of coin landing on heads  I shouldn't have to
say this but I'm going to the
answer's not fifty percent because we
don't talk about percentages
when we talk about odds so what is the
probability
of a coin landing on heads got your
answer?
alright if you said the odds of landing
on heads are one to one
than you're correct now if we look at
one to one
the first one is the times that won't
happen
or the times that it comes up tales and the
second one
is the times that comes up heads so the
will knots
to the Wills are one to one
now taking this problem one step further
we can ask
what odds are needed for a profitable bet
as in what pot size do you need
to make money on a one dollar bet since there are no half pennies we'll round to the
nearest one cent
for a one dollar bet getting 1:1 odds
to make money you need the pot to be at
least a dollar
and one cent a dollar and a penny
anything less than that and you're not
going to make any money
to you take this one step further which
I didn't really plan on getting to in
this video
but is important the higher the pot size
the more money you make as in the bigger
edge you have
on that bed if there's a dollar and ten
cents in the pot
you now have a 10 percent edge because
you're actually making
10 percent more than the break-even
amount
little bit more than we need to go in
this video by it's worth mentioning
and I hope that this example really
clears up why it's so much
easier to use odds when talking about
probability
and payouts everything lines up nicely
and you can quickly determine
if the situation you're in is profitable or not
based on your probability based on your
payout
and then make the correct play
I hope that example helps you understand
probability in payouts better
it shows you why we use odds to compare
them at the table for easy
in your head calculations when you don't
have a lot of time
so what's next we're not done yet we've
got a lot left to learn
we know probability and payouts we still
have yet to learn about hand combinations
calculating draws calculating equity and
of course
expected value which is essentially what
you can use
to determine the correct play in any poker situation
so stay tuned if you enjoyed the video
please go ahead leave a comment let me
know what you thought
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for Rounder University this is unexceptional
rounder and until next time
you guys keep on grindin
