BAGHDAD, STAY SAFE, THANK YOU.
MARKETS ARE BASICALLY LUGGING
OFF THE THE MID EAST TENSIONS,
WHY ARE INVESTORS TAKING IT IN
STRIDE?
>> GO BACK IN HISTORY, THIS AREA
HAS BEEN UNDER CONFLICT FOR TWO
DECADES.
WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME, IS
REAL PLAYING OUT IN GLOBAL
MARKETS, YOU ARE NOT GOING TO
SEE OIL AT 100 DOLLARS,
PRODUCTION IN U.S. IS SO
BOUNTIFUL, THE THREAT OF HAVING
CONFLICT IN OIL PRODUCING REGION
DOES NOT MATTER TO U.S. DOMESTIC
MARKETS ANY MORE, IT PLAYED
ITSELF TO ASIAN MARKETS THE SAME
WAY, I LIKE TO TALK TO THE SWISS
EVERY TIME THERE IS A CONFLICT,
THEY CONTROL SO MUCH FUND
GLOWING, I SPENT MY WEEKEND
TALKING WITH MY SOURCES THERE.
DONE EVEN MOVE THE NEEDLE.
DAVID: WOW.
>> THEY CONTINUE TO GLOW FUNDS
TO EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA,
THEY THINK WE'LL GET 8% IF WE'RE
LUCKY OUT OF THE MARKET.
THAT SUN USUAL, BECAUSE THE --
THAT IS UNUSUAL, THE SWISS ARE
REALLY CONSERVATIVE HAD.
THIS WAS A SPECIFIC STRIKE, THIS
SHOWS NEW TECHNOLOGY, NEW
MUNNITIONS, YOU CAN TAKE SOMEONE
OUT IN AN AIRPORT WITHOUT DOING
A LOT OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE, I AM
NOT SAYING IT IS PRO OR CON, BUT
THIS IS NOT 100,000 MEN ON THE
GROUND, THIS IS AN AIRCRAFT
CONTROLLED PROBABLY FROM
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA, THAT TOOK
OUT A TARGET.
AND REST OF THE WORLD
UNDERSTANDS HOW THAT WORKS, IF
THE ADMINISTRATION WILL TARGET
ON MORE UP TO 52 MORE IT WILL BE
DONE THE SAME, IT NOT THE THREAT
OF 100,000 TROOPS MOVING INTO
THE REGION.
AT LEAST AT-THIS-POINT.
THAT IS WHY THE MARK SO THE NOTE
AFFECTED.
>> WE'RE SEEING AMERICAN
COMPANIES AFFECTED CHEVRON
REMOVING AMERICAN EMPLOYEES THE
LOCATION, THEY ARE TAKING OUT
EMPLOYEES FROM IRAQ.
THERE HAS BEEN RUMORS ABOUT
STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
A NARROW PASSAGE WAY BETWEEN
IRAN AND OMAN BUT I DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WOULD BE A TARGET, IT
WAS A POINT OF CONTENTION IN MAY
AND JUNE OF LEST -- LAST YEAR.
YOUR QUESTION REGARDING WHY
MARKETS ARE SHRUGGING IT OFF, IT
HAS TO DO WITH FEDERAL RESERVE,
THE FED HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THIS
MARKET FOR SOME TIME, INTERESTS
TO SO HOW THEY PULL THEMSELVE
OUT WITHOUT -- I THINK WE'RE
IGNORING THEIR PRESENCE.
>> FEDERAL RESERVE SUPPORTED
MARKET FIRST 10 YEARS OF THE
MILL IN-- MILLENNIAL, BUT TARGET
USED TO MOVE ON WARNINGS.
WHY, IT IS EASY TO FIGURE OUT
HOW MUCH HUGOS
HOW MUCH HUGGIE WALMART WILL
SELL, AOPPOSED TO WHAT THE MOLA
IN IRAN OF GOING TO DO, EVEN
MARKET STRONG THIS IS A GREAT
OPPORTUNITY TO GET YOUR OFFICIAL
HOUSE IN ORDER.
DAVID: GOOD ADVICE.
>> IF YOUR CREDIT CARD IS PAID
OFF YOU ARE A BETTER INVESTOR
WHEN NEWS LIKE THIS HITS.
DAVID: I THINK THAT INVESTORS
MAKE A CALCULUS, THEY LOOK AT
IRANIAN ECONOMY, THAT IS IN SHAM
SHAMBLES RIGHT NOW, THEY REALIZE
IF THEY FIGHT A MINOR WAR FROM
OUR PERSPECTIVE, IT WOULD KILL
THE IRANIAN ECONOMY.
AND THE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BIN
LADEN SITUATION, HE WAS TAKEN
OUT OIL DID ACTUALLY SPIKE.
>> AND HE SAID YOU KNOW, WHAT
OIL REFINERY, BUSINESSES, THEY
ARE ACTUALLY ALREADY PLAN THIS
IN FOR Q1 AFTER THE ATTACK.
THE DYNAMICS, THE ECONOMICS
THING ARE DIFFERENT.
>> I THINK THEY ARE DISCOUNTING
THAT INVESTORS ARE DISCOUNTING
POSSIBILITY OF WAR FOR REASONS
THAT I OUTLINE WITH JOHN.
>> I DON'T THAT THIS IS AN
ATTEMPT TO CHANGE REGIME.
WE'LL HAVE SAME TENSIONS ON
GOING, BUT IT WILL BE MORE
CALCULATED, I ACTUALLY ON HAVE
ENERGY AS A TOP SECTOR FOR THIS
NEXT 12 MONTHS.
DAVID: HAVE YOU BEEN HOLDING TO
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND?
>> IT HAS BEEN DEAD MONEY FOR 10
YEARS, I AM ADDING TO IT.
I DID MY QUARTER END ADJUSTMENTS
I LIKE IT I HEAR A NEW
DISCIPLINE WITH CEOs TOO
REDUCE CAPAX AND RETURN MORE
CAPITAL TO THE SHAREHOLDER.
>> KEVIN, THE MARKETS HAS BEEN
ON FIRE FOR 10 YEARS, YOU TALK
ABOUT IRANIAN THREATS, AT WHAT
POINT DO YOU THINK SOMETHING
LIKE THIS, NEWS LIKE THIS IS AN
EXCUSE FOR INVESTORS TO TAKE
PROFITS OFF THE TABLE, COULD WAR
WITH IRAN BE AN EXCUSE TO SELL
RISK --
>> IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN.
IT IS NOT ENOUGH OF AN ISSUE
YET, IF YOU DEPLOY CAPITAL.
I HAVE GOT TO PUT MONEY TO WORK,
WHERE DO I PUT IT?
RIGHT NOW U.S., DOMESTIC LARGE
CAPS LOOK GOOD.
>> I WAS AT NEW YORK STOCK
EXCHANGE REPORTING THERE, TODAY,
GIVEN THE NEWS OF THE STRIKES WE
HAD MANUFACTURING NUMBERS COME
OUT IN DECEMBER, WE'RE SEEING 5
MONTHS OF DECLINES.
AND YET NONE REALLY AFFECTED THE
MARKET, A STOCK THEY WAS LOOKING
AT WAS LUFTHANSA.
A LOT OF AIRLINE, OIL GOES UP IT
COSTS THEM MORE.
I THINK OVERALL, I WILL BRING IT
BACK TO FED, WE PUT SO MUCH
EMPHASIS ON MONETARY POLICY OVER
FISCAL POLICY, NOW THAT WE
ENTERED AN ELECTION YEAR THAT
WILL ADD TO VOLATILITY, I DO
BELIEVE AS FOR INVESTORS, AND
AGAIN, I AM NOT ONE WITH FUND OR
ANYTHING, I THINK GOING FORWARD
-- DON'T LAUGH.
GOING FORWARD YOU
TO HAVING MORE CAUTIOUS IT WILL
BE MORE VOLATILE.
>> WHATEVER THE CONFLICT IS TO
YOUR POINT, THE WAY WE FIGHT
WARS NOW IS DIFFERENT.
RIGHT, IN TERMS OF DRONE
STRIKES, NOT BOOTS ON GROUND.
BUT TO YOUR OTHER POINT, WITH
REGARD TO IRAN, THE -- THEIR.
DAVID: THERE ECONOMY IN SHAM
BOWLES.
SHAMBLES.
>> AND FORTH COMING SANCTIONS
THIS IS A DOCTORS ERA.
-- THIS IS A DIFFERENTER ATHEY
ARE THREATENING CYBER ATTACKS.
TO USE A BUSINESS TERM, BARRIERS
OF ENTRY TO WAR HAVE JUST BEEN
LOWERED.
DAVID: FOR ALL SIDES, DO YOU
REALLY THINK ONE-ON-ONE US WITH
UNITED STATES, WITH OUR TECHIES
AGAIN IRAN.
WHO'LL WIN THAT ONE.
>> YOU LOOK AT THIS, I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF IRAN JOINS
FORCES BEHIND SCENE WITH
OPERATIVES IN RUSSIA AND CHINA.
DAVID: WE DID TALK ABOUT THAT
LAST WEEK, BUT I DON'T THINK
THEY HAVE A CHANCE AGAINST OUR
FORCES TO KICKBACK.
>> U.S. MILITARY IS UNMATCHED AS
OPPOSED TO IRAN, BUT THEY ARE UP
AGAINST THE WALL, YOU SAID THEIR
ECONOMY IS IN SHAMBLES.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT A
SOCIETY OR CERTAINLY NOT AN
ADMINISTRATION IN IRAN THAT
DEALS WITH REASON, THESE PEOPLE
ARE THE ONES THAT STRAP SUICIDE
BOMBS --
>> WELL, JONATHAN, I WOULD ARGUE
WITH A LITTLE BIT.
THESE MULLAHS DON'T WANT TO LOSE
THEIR POSITION, THERE IS A PAST,
WE PUSH BACK IN THE PAST, RONALD
REAGAN DESTROYED ABOUT A THIRD
OF THEIR NAVY, THEY SHUT UP,
THEY CLAMMED UP FOR ABOUT A
DECADE, THEY DO RESPOND TO PUSH
BACK.
>> TO DAVID'S POINT, THEY
