When explosions
crippled two oil tankers
in the Gulf of Oman on June 13,
the incident immediately
heightened tensions
between the U.S. and Iran
and raised alarms
about the security
of a vital passageway
for a third
of the world’s petroleum.
The U.S. blamed Iran
for unprovoked attacks
on the ship.
“— present a clear threat.”
Iran said American officials
were “warmongering.”
The main evidence the U.S.
has presented to the public
to support its claim
are these photos
and this surveillance footage
taken several hours
after the attack on
one of the tankers.
The footage has
significant gaps,
cuts out at key moments
and zooms in and out.
It does not depict
a single sequence
of events or an
explosive being planted.
Days later, the U.S.
released new images
to back up its claim.
They don’t show
definitively who is
responsible for the attacks.
But here’s what the
images do show us.
First, the tanker:
We can confirm
that this tanker,
the Kokuka Courageous,
is the same
ship that was approached
by the Iranian vessel.
These distinctive
features match.
And shipping data confirms
it was 20 miles
off the coast of Iran
when it was attacked.
Next, the patrol boat,
which does appear
to be Iranian.
It matches the model
and dimensions
of patrol boats used by the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps Navy.
The chevron pattern on the
bow of the boat matches,
and so does the
center console.
And they both have
antiaircraft guns.
An Iranian source familiar
with the country’s
military operations told us
that this clearer picture
of the same patrol boat
does show an I.R.G.C. vessel.
And the incident occurred in
Iran’s area of responsibility.
Last, the alleged mine:
A U.S. Navy ship
took this photograph
before the Iranian
patrol appeared.
It shows damage to
the ship and what
appears to be an object
protruding from the hull.
The new images released by
the U.S. Defense Department
appear to show the
outline of a limpet mine
similar to this mine
design on the right.
The dimensions
of the mine match.
These markings
match clasps used
to attach the mine to the
tanker and this remnant
matches the size and
design of those clasps.
Weapons experts say this could
resemble limpet mines that
are available to
Iran, but there’s
still no conclusive proof
that they are Iranian.
So it appears that
an Iranian boat
did remove a limpet mine
from the ship’s hull.
But importantly, the pictures
released by the U.S.
lack the crucial
piece of evidence:
The moment the
mine was placed.
Meanwhile,
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
has said that President Trump
wants to avoid war.
“President Trump
does not want war.
We will continue to
communicate that message
while doing the
things that are
necessary to protect American
interests in the region.”
Even still,
the Defense Department
decided to send 1,000
additional troops
to the region in response.
But as U.S.-Iran
relations continue
to crumble,
this slim waterway
will remain
a hotbed of tension.
