New York City.
The afternoon of January 7th, 2020.
Breaking news: about two dozen ballistic missiles
hit United States facilities in Iraq.
More specifically, the targets were military
bases in Western Iraq where hundreds of American
soldiers are deployed.
This was the escalation of the latest tension
between Iran and the United States that had
erupted on January 3rd.
On that day, the US army launched a deadly
strike against a convoy that was leaving Baghdad
Airport.
Travelling in that convoy were two leading
figures of Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The first was Qasem Soleimani, the commander
of the Quds Force, a special operations group
within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
He was one of the most important leaders of
the Iranian theocracy.
Next to him there was Aby Mahdi al-Muhandis,
chief of Kata’ib Hezbollah or Hezbollah
Brigades, an Iraqi militia founded in 2003
in order to fight US troops deployed in the
country.
According to the Pentagon, this deadly strike
was carried out according to orders given
by Donald Trump himself, the President of
the United States.
Now the question is... who was Qasem Soleimani?
What does his loss mean to Middle Eastern
politics?
Why did Trump decide to end his life?
Why and how is Iran reacting to this?
And the most important question of all...
What could happen next?
Are we about to witness a war between The
United States and Iran?
Let’s take a look.
(INTRO)
First of all, Soleimani was not a random person
but one of the main characters in Iranian
politics.
From the perspective of the West, we could
say he is the Joker, the Darth Vader and the
Hans Landa of international politics: a world
class villain.
Yes, my dear viewers, Qasem Soleimani was
the most important military leader in Iran
and, perhaps, the second most powerful leader
in the country, only surpassed by the supreme
leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
As we’ve discussed before here on VisualPolitik,
Iran is one of the US’s arch enemies.
So, you can imagine the magnitude of this
man.
But, in order to understand who Mr. Soleimani
really was, we have to understand how the
Iranian army actually works.
Unlike most countries, Iran does not have
one army but two.
Yes: two different armies that work completely
independently of each other.
On one hand we have a regular army, that has
more than 350,000 soldiers.
According to article 143 of the Iranian Constitution,
this army has the classic tasks every army
has: protecting the land, the borders, securing
infrastructure and so on...
But then we have this other army, the so-called,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
This army was created in 1979, right after
the revolution started by Ayatollah Khomeini.
It’s main task is to defend the ideological
principles of the revolution.
So why would they need such a thing?
Well, think about it.
After the revolution, Khomeini was afraid
of a coup d’etat rising from the traditional
army that had always been loyal to the Shah
of Persia prior to the revolution.
So, in order to quash any would-be coup, he
created his own guard.
But if you thought this was just a small troop
of elite bodyguards protecting religious leaders,...
you’d better think again.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard has around
150,000 troops and they have far superior
training and weaponry than the regular army.
But hold on just a second because that is
not all!
These troops don’t answer to the government
but are under the exclusive command of the
supreme leader.
In other words, Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian
president, has no power over them.
Only the Ayatollah Khamenei does.
Having said that, within this Islamic Revolutionary
Guard there is another corps with greater
autonomy and those are the Quds Force.
The Quds Force are something similar to a
cross between the CIA and the Special Forces
in the US.
This means that they are elite troops and
an intelligence agency at the same time.
They carry out all foreign operations.
In other words, the best trained soldiers
and the smartest spies from throughout Iran
belong to this group.
The Quds Force are in charge of expanding
Iran’s influence abroad.
These, my dear viewers, were the troops led
by Mr. Soleimani.
This is why we say that this man was the architect
of Iran’s sphere of influence in the Middle
East.
And lately Iran has been gaining a huge sway
on the region.
Over time, this man came to be in charge of
all Iranian regional policy.
Add to this his intelligence network and his
closeness to the supreme leader and you can
understand why Soleimani was far more important
to Iranian politics than the president himself.
Want to see an example of this?
What do you think Khamenei called him?
General?
Commander-in-chief?
His official title translates to ‘living
martyr of the revolution’.
And the truth is... when it came to expanding
Iran’s influence and causing problems for
American troops, Soleimani knew his stuff.
Just have a look at how some high-ranking
men in Washington describe him:
(AUDIO: For two decades, Soleimani has been
the most powerful, savvy & effective terrorist
on the planet.
He’s enjoyed full backing of powerful terrorist
state.
Irreplaceable.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation
for Defense of Democracies)
As the Quds Force leader, Soleimani crafted
a multinational network that has become a
headache for both the US and Israel.
After the Iraq invasion of 2003, the Quds
Force trained and gave weapons to militias
that hit US targets.
For example, they trained small militias in
the use of sophisticated explosives that perforate
the shields on the armoured vehicles used
by US troops.
These kinds of explosives caused hundreds
of US soldiers to lose their lives.
Those militias now have thousands of troops
who are fighting for total control of Iraq.
And the same goes for Afghanistan.
There, Iranian troops gave training, weapons
and even direct support to the Taliban so
they could fight the international forces
led by the United States.
But if you’re not impressed by Mr. Soleimani’s
track record, hold on just a second because
there is more.
In 2006, his support to Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian
terrorist group in Lebanon, brought about
the first retreat of the Israeli army.
Later on, in Syria, his support to the Al
Assad regime was crucial for enabling the
dictator to keep his power.
But it doesn’t end there!
In Yemen, pro-Iranian militias have managed
to hold their own against the almighty Saudi
Army.
The same goes for the Gaza strip, where the
Quds Force is playing a key role in helping
Hamas.
Still not surprised?
Well... look at operations like this one:
(AUDIO: 09/14/2019 Two Major Saudi Oil Installations
Hit by Drone Strike, and U.S. Blames Iran.
NYT)
(AUDIO: 07/20/2019 Iran seizes British tanker
in Strait of Hormuz.
BBC)
In a nutshell, Soleimani’s loss has been
a huge blow to the Ayatollah regime.
The American drone not only killed a key Iranian
figure: it also brought massive humiliation
to the whole regime.
Because, let’s be honest here: if a US drone
can take out the leader of your best elite
troop... a lot of people will stop being afraid
of Iran.
(AUDIO: It is impossible to overstate the
importance of this particular action.
It is more significant than the killing of
Osama bin Laden or even the death of Islamic
State leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Gen. David Petraeus, former commander of U.S.
forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and a former
CIA director)
So, OK, I know what you are probably thinking
now... that this is a great achievement for
the US, right?
Well, yes, in a way that’s correct.
But, on the other hand, it also comes with
a huge risk.
Killing this man would not come without retaliation.
This brings us to the next question...
Why did Trump decide to carry out this attack?
Why did he want to unleash such a political
and diplomatic crisis at this point in time?
Let’s take a closer look.
(THE KEYS BEHIND TRUMP’S DECISION)
Let’s be clear here: Washington always hated
this guy and wanted to kill him.
No matter if we talk about Trump, Obama or
even Bush... all of them had Soleimani on
their hit lists.
But until now, nobody has wanted to risk so
much just for him.
So why did Trump want to then?
I know what you might be thinking now...
Good old Don doing his thing, right?
Trump just got crazy and said...
‘whatever, let’s go and kill him!’.
Of course not!
In fact, there are three reasons that explain
why Trump acted.
The first one is the Iraqi situation.
Iraq has never been stable but now it’s
getting even worse.
For several months, there has been a massive
fight between pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian
supporters.
So Iran is pushing their efforts to control
the region.
This is why the militias trained by Iran have
been harassing any opposing forces, including
US troops.
They just want every US soldier to leave the
country.
This explains the many attacks on US military
bases and the attempted assault of the US
embassy.
(Thousands of protesters attack the American
Embassy in Baghdad shouting ‘Death to USA’
- EL MUNDO)
It seemed that Soleimani had gone to Baghdad
to coordinate massive attacks against US military
presence there and to take over the Iraqi
political institutions.
But hold on just a second because there is
a second reason.
And this is related to this year...
2020, the year of the US Presidential elections!
And what would be better for Trump than taking
out one of their arch enemies?
Add to this the fact the Trump needs to divert
attention from the impeachment process and
his lack of achievements on foreign policy.
A victory in the Middle East would be a god-send
for his campaign.
And, yet, there is a third reason.
You see, ever since Trump came to the White
House, he has increased pressure on Iran.
His goal is to put the Ayatollah regime against
the wall and, hopefully, spark a change of
regime.
This explains breaking the nuclear deal and
the nuclear sanctions against
the country.
So far, neither of these has worked so he
had to take a further step.
Besides, with this operation, The United States
scares off their opponents because they flexed
their muscle in the region.
But the question... the real question now
is...
What is going to happen next?
Are we really about to start a war with the
Middle East?
Let’s see.
(REVENGE)
Iran has sworn they will retaliate and we
could say the regime is in shock.
(AUDIO: “A Severe Revenge awaits the criminals
who have stained their hands with his and
the other martyrs’ blood last night.
Martyr Soleimani is an Intl figure of Resistance
and all such people will seek revenge.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)
("There is no doubt that the great nation
of Iran and the other free nations of the
region will take revenge for this gruesome
crime from criminal America," Hassan Rouhani,
President of Iran)
The first retaliation was launching at least
two dozen ballistic missiles against two US
military bases: ARBIL and AL-ASAD.
Now the question is... does this mean that
the Ayatollahs are willing to start a war
against the United States empire?
Of course we cannot predict what is in Khamenei’s
head.
But, from a strictly rational point of view,
it makes absolutely no sense.
Revenge is one thing and suicide is another.
And we are not just talking about military
capability here.
Think about it: anyone could predict that
Iran would avenge their dead general.
It was a fact.
The regime needed to respond to the US strike.
The question is how?
(AUDIO: “The Islamic Republic of Iran refuses
to take any emotional and hasty action.
We will set up a plan, patiently, to respond
to this terrorist act in a crushing and powerful
manner.
We are the ones who set the time and place
of our reciprocal response.”
Brig.
Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, a spokesman for the
armed forces)
Sure, they have sent more than two dozen ballistic
missiles and they have set off alarm bells
around the globe.
But... was it as big a deal as it seemed?
At the time of making this video, the Iranian
missiles had struck two second-tier US facilities
and no Americans had been killed.
This means that the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard chose two minor targets to save face,
as a show of power inside of Iran and to create
chaos within neighboring Iraq.
At the same time, they have reduced the risk
of a counter retaliation from the United States.
In other words: they are increasing the tension
for a moment in order to reduce it later on.
Does this mean this escalation has stopped?
Of course not!
Especially, not in Iran.
You see, Iran is famous for fighting without
declaring war.
They won’t send uniformed men, no tanks
or combat jets as you could expect in a traditional
war.
The ultimate Iranian speciality is what we
call ‘asymmetric warfare’.
This means: informal attacks carried out by
groups that, although supported by Iran, are
not Iran.
In fact, these kind of strategies were Soleimani’s
speciality.
This is something that the Ayatollah regime
has been doing forever.
For example, in 1983, Hezbollah bombed a Marine
Corps quarter in Lebanon, causing more than
200 deaths.
The same happened when Hezbollah attacked
the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires and the
biggest Jewish center in Argentina in 1992.
And we don’t even have to go back so far
in time!
The Iraqi militias that have been fighting
US soldiers in Iraq caused more than 600 deaths.
And let’s not even mention Afghanistan.
During 2019, pro-Iranian groups hit a US drone
and harassed oil tankers on the Strait of
Hormuz.
Also the Houthi Rebels attacked two of the
most important Saudi oil facilities.
This is straight from the playbook of the
Quds Force and we can expect more of this
in the future.
(AUDIO: It’s a huge threat.
The fact that we have F-16s and F-35s is not
relevant to this problem.”
retired Brig.
Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, former chief of the
research division at the Israeli Defense Force’s
Military Intelligence branch.)
And it is hard to imagine a different scenario
even if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard did
dare to launch those ballistic missiles.
Basically, they couldn’t do anything else
because they have no better weapons for it.
Here are some examples: the most powerful
tank Iran has is the Russian T-72, that started
operating in the 70s.
And this is the most powerful, because they
still use tanks from the Vietnam or even the
Korean war.
The air fleet is even older.
Of course, it all depends on what the United
States does.
But the truth is that the US wouldn’t be
interested in invading Iran either.
We are talking about a huge country, with
hundreds of thousands of soldiers ready for
battle and a high-end anti-air system.
Despite the fact that they only have short
and medium-range missiles and, therefore,
couldn’t attack US soil, they could cause
significant damage to US allies like Israel,
Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.
So, unless there is a big surprise, all we
can expect is a lot of tension and a lot of
asymmetric warfare.
But now it’s your turn.
What do you think it is going to happen?
Do you think, despite all our reasoning, there
will be a war between the United States and
Iran?
Please, leave your answer in the comments
section below.
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