(air whooshing)
(chimes)
- Hey, everyone, this is Uri Peleg
and today I'm going to be talking about
a high stakes hand
history where both players
are making fairly big
theoretical mistakes.
So, let's start by going through the hand.
Bit2easy raises button.
FourSixFour three bets the big blind.
And five, six, eight flop.
FourSixFour checks.
And we have a stab, a call.
Check, call the turn.
River, check.
Bit2easy shoves, FourSixFour calls.
And they turn up pocket
threes and pocket aces.
Now if I were to see
this hand back in 2012,
when we were all naive and
didn't know about solvers
I'd say that Bit2easy was a spewy,
agro guy making a terrible bluff.
And FourSixFour was
making a good adjustment
of recognizing he's against
a very aggressive player,
and just slow playing aces.
But these days, in 2020,
mostly when people see these hands
they just think this is
something the solver would do,
the guys are doing it at a low frequency,
and everything's okay
and they just move on.
So, we're gonna take a look at the
PioSolver sim and actually show that
this is not the case.
So we'll start out with a flop play
where aces checks, threes
is an okay hand to bet,
aces is an okay hand to call.
And moving on to the turn,
this is the first place
you'd see solver disagreeing
with the players.
Where threes is never checking,
but its not a small mistake,
threes betting is a three
hundred and thirty dollar mistake
and there's no hand type
similar to threes betting
deuces, fours, five X,
pocket sevens, eight nine,
ace queen, ace jack, all the similar
hand strenght hands to threes never bet.
So this is really something that
solver would just never do
its not a low-frequency play.
And in fact, its the biggest EV mistake
you could possibly make
when we look at how much solver
prefers checking hand threes.
Threes and deuces are actually
the two hands it prefers
checking the most.
Followed by, you know, ace
five fours and ace queen
the hands right around them.
So a very, very big mistake by Pio.
The reason for this is
that threes before betting
has 40% equity when you bet.
Villain folds, ace queen, he calls it.
He calls five X so
folding every worse hand
calling every better hand.
After he calls your equity drops to 11%.
So really kind of an old-school logic.
When you bet, you want to
either fold out better or
get called by worse and this
hand is right in the spot
where its doing neither of that.
You get called by every better hand.
You fold out every worse hand.
Just a very, very bad play in a vacuum.
Similar on the river,
threes is not the hand
to bluff river with.
It has too much value
showdown value still.
The 10% equity still holds so this is a
three hundred and fifty
dollar river mistake.
On the turn FourSixFour,
who check called with aces,
solver considers this
a mistake as well and
would always check raise aces, actually
check shove aces, I think.
I think this mistake,
in air quotes "mistake",
is more understandable
given how aggressive
Bit2easy was playing.
Trapping more is a good
adjustment against that.
We could stop here and say, you know,
"Bit2easy made a mistake, mistakes happen"
and leave it at that.
But I think there's a
deeper lesson to be learned
in this hand,
about,
imitating solvers
without understanding them.
And I don't blame Bit2easy
for betting turn with threes
because these type of bets happen often.
There are a lot of sims where
the under pairs of the board,
will be turned into bluffs.
And if you understand why better,
you would've understood that
this is not the spot for it.
But it's definitely a play that happens
and it happens quite often and
you guys can see it on the
eight of diamonds for example.
Where threes is okay to
bet at a low-frequency
but then fours and five X always bet.
And of course the difference here
is gonna be that when
you bet on the eight,
you are actually getting called by quite
a decent amount of worse
hands and your also getting
more protection since the board is paired.
This is why it's so important
when you're using a solver
to make sure you know why
you're doing what you're doing.
That's it for today,
hope you guys enjoyed the video
and I'll see you next time.
