JUDY WOODRUFF: The evidence is mounting tonight
that an Iranian missile knocked a passenger
airliner out of the sky this week near Tehran.
Iran denies it, but the United States and
several other governments say it is highly
likely.
Foreign affairs correspondent Nick Schifrin
begins with this report.
And a warning: Some of the scenes in this
story could be disturbing to some viewers.
NICK SCHIFRIN: There were no survivors, 176
lives lost, leaving behind only family photo
scrapbooks, charred shoes, the remnants of
a plane wing.
And now Western officials say the Ukrainian
passenger jet that went down was shot down.
At 6:12 a.m. local on Wednesday, the flight
took off from Tehran's International Airport
bound for Kiev. After two minutes, it reached
about 7,300 feet, and contact was lost.
U.S. intelligence officials and a senior administration
official tell "PBS NewsHour" the U.S. assesses
Iran fired this Russian-made missile defense
system, mistaking the passenger jet for a
U.S. military jet.
Five hours before, at 1:00 a.m. local, Iran's
military launched more than a dozen ballistic
missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq. U.S. intelligence
officials assess, after this attack, Iran
was on high alert, fearing that U.S. aircraft
could attack inside Iran.
U.S. officials say their assessment that Iran
shot down the plane is based on photos, radar
data, and satellite information, including
infrared detection of the missile launch.
More than 60 passengers were Canadian, and,
today, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
blamed Iran.
JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Canadian Prime Minister: We
have intelligence from multiple sources, including
our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence
indicates that the plane was shot down by
an Iranian surface-to-air missile. This may
well have been unintentional.
NICK SCHIFRIN: President Trump hinted it was
Iran, but emphasized the human toll.
DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States:
It's a tragic thing. When I see that, it's
a tragic thing. But somebody could have made
a mistake on the other side. Could have made
a mistake.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Iran's civil aviation authority
today denied the accusation, saying it was
-- quote -- "physically impossible" for a
missile to have hit the plane.
But, tonight, video emerged of what appears
to be a missile hitting the plane, and other
videos show the plane going down, and the
impact caught on a CCTV camera.
Today, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr
Zelensky didn't blame Iran, but called for
an international investigation.
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, Ukrainian President (through
translator): Undoubtedly, the priority for
Ukraine is to identify the causes of the plane
crash. We will surely find out the truth.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And Nick joins me now, along
with our aviation correspondent, Miles O'Brien.
He is in Florida.
Hello to both of you.
So, Nick, you have been talking to experts
all day long. What are they saying about how
this could have happened?
NICK SCHIFRIN: So there are questions about
the system that Iran was using and questions
about user error.
So, first the system, Judy. The U.S. intelligence
assessment is that this was an old Russian
short-range missile defense system called
Tor or SA-15. The hardware on that system
is considered relatively reliable, but the
computer software is not as sophisticated.
And it's that software, that it's not about
targeting, but it's about knowing which plane
is in the sky. And so the experts I spoke
to -- and they are just experts. They're outside
of the government. Experts I spoke to said
maybe the software couldn't determine which
kind of plane it was.
And that's where you get user error. The time
the operator of the system had to decide what
to do was seconds. The operator is sitting
there just hours after that major Iranian
attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, fearing that
there could be U.S. jets, military jets, in
the sky.
And this is the fundamental nature of conflict,
Judy, that miscalculations can happen. And
this happened, by the way, to the U.S. 1988,
U.S.-Iran tanker war, the USS Vincennes -- it's
a warship -- was skirmishing with Iranian
boats in the Persian Gulf, and had actually
accidentally entered Iranian waters, when
it discovered or thought it had discovered
an Iranian military jet coming toward the
ship.
That was actually a civilian jet, but it didn't
know that. It didn't quite know what it was.
And so it fired; 298 people died in that mistake
that the U.S. has made in the past.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Miles, from a civilian
aviation perspective, what are the questions
that are being asked tonight about this?
MILES O'BRIEN: Well, I think an important
question, Judy, is, Iran was on high alert
in the wake of the missile attack in Iraq.
A prudent thing to do would have been to make
it a no-fly zone for civilian airliners, at
least in the immediate aftermath of that.
As Nick is pointing out, you have a system
that is old already. We don't know how well-maintained
it was. We don't know how the software was
working or what it was doing.
We don't know how well-trained that crew was.
But we do know they were on hair-trigger alert.
That civilian aircraft has a transponder,
and it would have kicked out crucial information
on what it was and what it wasn't.
But the civilian system and the military system,
wherever you go in the world, is not well-integrated.
And on a good day, that can cause trouble.
This wasn't a good day. This was a very bad
day.
JUDY WOODRUFF: No question.
So, Nick, what is Iran saying? What are they
doing about all this?
NICK SCHIFRIN: So, as we reported, Iran has
denied this accusation coming out of U.S.
intelligence officials.
The head of the Civil Aviation Organization
called them illogical rumors. That's what
he said today. They have been providing some
details. They said other civilian airliners
were in the air at the same time, and that
the plane didn't go down immediate, but it
was hit -- or some kind of mechanical failure
-- that's what Iran is saying -- and tried
to turn down, turn back to the airport.
Iran has said it was willing to work with
Ukrainian authorities. But, Judy, this is
crucial. Iran has said it is not willing to
hand over the black boxes to U.S. officials.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And so that raises the question,
Miles. Help us understand or remind why those
black boxes matter in understanding how something
like this could have happened.
MILES O'BRIEN: Well, the objective data in
those black boxes would be able to settle
that alleged dispute here.
I mean, the Iranians are saying it was impossible
for them to shoot it down. That's patently
not true. This aircraft was 4,000 feet above
the ground, 7,000 feet above sea level, well
within range of surface-to-air missiles.
So that's wrong on the face of it. The black
boxes will settle it, because the data in
there will be able to explain it. There might
be some cockpit voice recordings that would
be crucial. And that's why it's important
that those boxes end up in some sort of objective
hands, so that the world can make an assessment.
JUDY WOODRUFF: I want to just come back to
both of you on this question of no-fly zone,
both you, Nick, and you, Miles, because people
are asking, in retrospect, why were passenger
planes, civilian aircraft, still flying in
a place where basically there was war?
NICK SCHIFRIN: It's a very good question that
Miles raises.
We do know that U.S. officials were saying,
avoid that airspace. And they were saying
that in the days leading up to this accident,
because we believe this was an accident. But
we don't know why Iran had decided -- Iran
hadn't decided why not creating a no-fly zone
-- and, obviously, as Miles was saying, it
would have been a prudent effort, and it obviously
would have saved a lot of lives.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Miles, do I hear you saying
that if Iran had done that, civilian aircraft
wouldn't have been flying?
MILES O'BRIEN: Correct.
Look what happened in the United States after
9/11; 4,500 aircraft were put on the ground
in short order. There was a no-fly zone. It
is the prudent thing to do in a situation
where everybody is on hair-trigger alert.
That didn't happen in this case. And the fog
of war took over.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Just such a tragedy. Such a
tragedy.
Miles O'Brien, Nick Schifrin, thank you both.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.
