My head hurts drank too much last night
I was there with something that I could
take that just made me feel instantly
better Jeffrey have I got the cure for
what ails you
just your local trustworthy doctor
Obadiah Stoat coming to your aid just
three drops of my pet to rattlesnake
more than your whiskey and I promise you
my friend you will never have another
first long as you drink night or day and
just for you my friend I'm gonna make
the previous deal you long supply just
three ounces of gold yes the price of
gold us today you can drink to your
heart's content and never feel an ache
in you want a pretty little head again
well three out Wow
but my head hurts a lot after I break a
lot which I do a lot I guess I should
buy yer whole lot.
Hold your horses Geoffrey who the hell
are you I'm the closest thing you got
to a conscience! Now before you go
selling the family poppers snake oil
maybe you should ask the questions and
learn a bit about the stuff. All right,
Obadiah what is this stuff? For centuries
mystic Chinese healers that have been
using water snake oil to cure whatever ails you. Look at these affidavits from
satisfied customers: Works great, worth
its weight in gold!
See Tina, this stuff is worth its weight in
gold. So he claims but would you like to
see for yourself? Mr. Obadiah you stand
by your product right so how about you
give Geoffrey and I a two-month sample
so that we can see for ourselves how it
cures hangovers? If it really does like
you claim.
Of course if I stand by all of my
product say I'd be happy to give you a
sample but I can't just give it away.
40 days for two bits. For one bit
Oh
Okie dokie Teenie, what do we do now? Get roostered on Jolly's rock gut? hey by
the way why do we get so much of it can
we just try it out by testing it once
how long have you been drinking
Jolly's rock gut?  Oh gosh I've been going on about 7 years.
And does it always taste the same? No,
sometimes it tastes real sweet spicy
and sometimes it tastes like the inside
of a cow's mouth!  Right there's plenty of
variation the strength and quality of
Jolly's rock gut. Now let's think
about you how much you've been drinking
this week? Oh gosh, I sometimes drinks 4 shots
sometimes I have 12 shots when I'm
feeling really zesty I might drink 22
shots. Now let's imagine you got a miracle
cure wait for it that's gonna change
your drinking habits - so for the sake
of our test it's best if we got several
batches of rock gut,
you're drinking at several different
levels and it's best if you don't even
know what you're getting if you're
getting the real snake oil or a placebo.
That's a fake snake oil we use for
testing so we'll do what's called a
double-blind randomized experiment. I
don't wanna go blind! You ain't gonna go blind
double-blind is where you don't know if
you're getting snake oil a placebo I
don't know what you got when I asked you
about your hangover in the morning and
Jolly uses a random number generator to
decide on which nights are getting snake
oil and on which nice you're getting
placebo. Who you talking to?
Talkin' to them students out there in internet
land. Oh, what's the internet? Something you don't have
to worry your pretty little head about.
Okay. All right let's get to drinking.
let's get to drinking.
all right Jeffery it looks like on 15
out of 20 days with placebo you had a
hangover and on 11 out of the 20 days
with snake oil. Hot dog it worked! Not so fast
the lower proportion and hangover with
snake oil could just be due to random
chance
remember we expect every day to be a
little different so by my calculations
assuming our samples truly random
independent events, gosh darn, I wish that
salesman had given me more snake oil
then I would have used the normal model!
But this I have to do, and I'll just be
using a randomization model. A difference
at least as big as we got I here we could
expect to see approximately 15% of the
time by random chance alone.  Gosh
Geoffrey,  I just don't see this
difference to be statistically
significant. (5% or less is a special
p-value that me and statisticians agreed
to be statistically significant ) So we
ain't got no evidence that the snake oil
there's better than random chance to be
curing your hangovers. Well shoot.
Good to see you Jeffrey my man. Snake
oil worked like a charm
did it not? I heard through the grapevine
that you had a 26 percent reduction in
hangovers last month. Ready to buy a year's
supply I'm ready to provide you a 5%
discount. That's quite significant! Not so
fast
you sure know how to twist numbers, but I crunch
them myself with Miss Tina, and I figured
out that what your snake oil is do it
could just be by random chance I'm gonna
be talking to all my miner friends
around town and seeing what their
experience is like with your snake oil.
So you have a good day.
Curses, foiled again!
That's good STATISTICS!  Wild wild west. Rough Rider no you don't
wanna none of this it's gonna miss
brother running this buffalo soldier
look it's like I told you any damn fool
that st. you stretch be out of that
chest wish meet Jim West Roughnecks
we'll check them on the fire watch your
step or flex and get her holding your
side swallow your pride
