SHANAHAN WILL BRIEF THE FULL
SENATE ON TUESDAY.
SUSAN: THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
JENNIFER.
ASHLEY: WE HAVE REBECCA
HEINRICHS, MILITARY ANALYST AND
HUDSON SENIOR FELLOW.
WHAT DO YOU THINK IT COULD BE
MISCOMMUNICATION?
IRAN THINKING U.S. IS STRIKING
FIRST.
THE U.S. SEEING, THEY ARE
STARTING TO MOVE, WAS IT A
MISUNDERSTANDING.
WHAT IS YOUR TAKE?
>> NO.
I THINK THE IRANIAN REGIME IS
BEGINNING TO PANIC BECAUSE THE
WALLS ARE CLOSING IN.
SANCTIONS ARE FORCING EUROPEANS
MAKING A DECISION DO WE GO WITH
THE TERRORIST REGIME AND GOING
WITH THE UNITED STATES TO HAVE
ACCESS TO U.S. MARKET?
THEY WILL CHOOSE THE UNITED
STATES.
ALL THE IRANIANS HAVE LEFT WHO
THEY ARE SELLING OIL TO.
THE CHINESE DO NOT WANT THE
IRANIANS TO BE THREATENING OIL
TRANSITS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF
HORMUZ, 1/5 OF THE SEABORNE
TRANSSITS GO THROUGH THE STRAIT
OF HORMUZ.
THAT WOULD CRUSHING THE TO THE
CHINESE.
IRANIANS ARE CORNERED.
THE UNITED STATES DOESN'T WANT
WAR.
IT IS IN NO WAY TO U.S. INTEREST
TO MAKE THIS GO INTO A MILITARY
CONFLICT.
IRANIANS ARE TRYING TO EXERT
LEVERAGE.
USING NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL,
THREATENING TO START UP THE
NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
THEY'RE IN THEIR LAST DYING
BREATH.
I THIS.
ASHLEY: ABRAHAM LINCOLN,
AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN THE REGION.
WE HAVE BIG BOMBERS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
WE SENT A VERY STRONG MESSAGE S
THIS WHAT IS NEEDED DEALING WITH
IRAN?
DO THEY RESPOND BY BACKING DOWN,
SO TO SPEAK?
>> YES, THEY DO.
MOST REGIMES DO.
THE UNITED STATES AGAIN HAS
OBVIOUSLY THE MILITARY UPPER
HAND HERE.
AND SO, WHAT THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION IS DOING, IS,
SENDING A CLEAR DEMONSTRATION
THAT WE DO NOT WANT MILITARY
CONFLICT IF THE IRANIANS DO
SOMETHING SO FOOLISH TO USE A
PROXY GROUP LIKE THE IRGC OR
SOME OTHER PROXY GROUP THAT THE
UNITED STATES IS PREPARED TO
RETALIATE AND DEFEND U.S. FORCES
ABROAD AND OUR ALLIES.
THIS IS WHAT DETERRENCE IS.
YOU TRY TO DEMONSTRATE CREDIBLY
TO OUR ADVERSARY WHATEVER THEY
THINK IS GOING TO BE WORTH AN
ACT OF AGGRESSION WILL NOT BE
WORTH THE COST.
THAT IS ALSO WHAT AMBASSADOR
BOLTON IS REALLY GOOD FOR THERE
TOO.
HE PRESENT AS REALLY STRONG
PRESENCE IN THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION SAYING WE'RE
WILLING TO GO TO WAR BUT WE DO
NOT WANT TO GO TO WAR.
THAT IS HOW YOU HAVE A CREDIBLE
DETERRENT.
ASHLEY: YOU MENTIONED CHINA,
WHICH IS A MAJOR BUYER OF
IRANIAN OIL.
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER
REPORTEDLY ASKING CHINA TO HELP
THEM SAVE THE NUCLEAR DEAL WHICH
PRESIDENT TRUMP PULLED THE
UNITED STATES OUT OF.
WHAT, IF ANY ROLE DOES CHINA
PLAY IN THAT?
OR DOES CHINA NOT WANT TO GET
INVOLVED?
>> WELL THE CHINESE HAVE TRIED
TO HELP THE IRANIANS AS THE
UNITED STATES HAS INCREASED
SANCTIONS AGAIN, AS THE UNITED
STATES PULLED OUT OF THE IRAN
DEAL BUT THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS
NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO SAVE THE
IRANIANS.
THE IRANIANS NEED THE EUROPEAN
ECONOMIES.
WHEN THE EUROPEANS ARE BACKING
OUT, CHOOSE THE UNITED STATES
MARKET OVER THE IRANIAN MARKET.
THEY'RE REALLY STUCK.
BUT THE CHINESE HAVE ALSO BEEN
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE IRANIANS
TO SOME DEGREE.
THEY KNOW THEY ARE THERE KEEPING
THE IRANIAN RELIGION -- REGIME.
THEY CAN GET A GOOD PRICE ON
OIL.
THAT IS REALLY INTERESTING AS
THE IRANIANS AGAIN TO THREATEN
THINGS LIKE THE CLOSE THE STRAIT
OF HORMUZ.
THAT WILL HURT THE CHINESE.
