- Hey everybody, Ian Bremmer here.
I've got your World in
More Than 60 Seconds.
Coronavirus, lots of crises still with us,
you get more seconds,
just kind of the way it works.
Little contract informally
between you and me.
Let's get started, here
are your questions.
That the country is incredibly divided,
that if you are pro-Trump, and
you were watching that RNC,
you thought it was very powerful.
You thought it was a strong message.
It reflected interests that
you have in the country.
And if you can't stand Trump,
then you thought it was a dumpster fire,
and it solidified your preexisting belief.
There is a, I mean...
I accept that the RNC is
more of a cult of personality
around Trump who occupies
all the oxygen in the room,
but also just has a far
greater reach and following
in media than we've
seen from other leaders
of Republican or Democratic
parties in recent history,
but I also recognize that there are
a lot of people out there.
Senator Scott, certainly Nikki
Haley, Steve Scalise, others.
I wouldn't say it's a
broad demographic tent,
but I do think it is
a broad political tent
in terms of the ideological orientations
of the people that are represented there,
as well as the fact that if it wasn't,
if Trump wasn't president,
you would say that there would be a lot
of infighting among that group,
but there isn't in this environment.
There were a couple of
disastrous speeches, certainly,
and everyone's making
fun of Kimberly Guilfoyle
who really shouldn't be public speaking
about issues that matter.
But you know, she's with Don Trump Jr,
and the family is a
very big piece of this.
I will say I'm a little
surprised Jared Kushner
has not been announced
as giving a speech yet.
Maybe he will show up over
the course of the week,
given that every member
of the Trump family
that likes the president is speaking,
but you know, that's where you have it.
Well, the amusing thing I suppose,
is that they're doing
so much more of it live,
and so while the production
quality isn't as high,
the potential for there to be
something of interest, gaffs,
something that's more sort
of newsworthy and watchable
does go up a bit, but
again, completely divided,
and it's not like there
are a lot of people
that are watching both.
Okay, that's it.
Well, you know, if you're a
Russian opposition member,
that has to be one of the
most physically dangerous
occupations in the world,
and the fact that he was
poisoned but was not killed,
and looks like he was poisoned
with the same kind of agent
that other Russian, you know,
double agents and others have been,
the Skripal poisoning, for example,
a few years ago in the UK
there, same kind of thing.
The Russians of course denied it.
The Russian government said
that there was no such poisoning.
The doctors in Omsk that
were spoken to by the Kremlin
said, no, he definitely wasn't poisoned.
Of course, they get him to Germany,
and the truth actually comes out.
What's extraordinary
is that there's almost
complete impunity.
President Putin and Russia
feels like there is nothing
that can be done against him,
irrespective of what he
does to Russian citizens.
There is no rule of law.
There are no constraints on his power,
and it's deeply disturbing that one
of the most important
countries in the world
has a leader that feels
like he can act that way.
Of course, in China, Xi Jinping,
the way that the Uighurs are treated,
the way that they've acted
in Hong Kong recently,
same kind of the thing.
In the case of Navalny,
the German government, both the chancellor
and the foreign minister,
Merkel and Heiko Maas,
had very strong statement saying
that they would not tolerate this,
that they demanded a full investigation,
that the people responsible
must be held to account,
but not supported by the EU as a whole,
and President Trump is
saying no such thing.
So I mean, the Germans are
kind of talking themselves,
almost voices in the wilderness,
and it increases the sense of impunity
that President Putin actually has.
It's depressing from a
global and human perspective,
but boy, it sends a message.
I mean, Navalny, on this
plane and crying out in pain,
and then in a coma, and
probably isn't going to die,
but you know, certainly dangerous
for the rest of his life
in terms of, you know, the
ongoing health that he has.
It's hard to imagine
he's gonna wanna go back
to Russia anytime soon.
It's gonna give you second,
third, fourth thoughts.
If you're a member of
the opposition in Russia,
or you're a journalist that
wants to write about truth,
there is no challenging
President Putin at this point,
or any time in the foreseeable future.
And for those that see
what's happening in Belarus
and say the Russians, you're next,
even with the demonstrations we've seen
in Siberia and the far
East, I just don't see it.
Well, we have a few
hundred cases a day now,
which in South Korea is a lot.
The South Koreans have had
a sort of zero tolerance
in terms of trying to ensure
that they can control the virus,
and therefore lots of contact tracing,
extensive testing, and
quarantine shutting things down,
and even though they have
almost complete compliance
in mask wearing and social
distancing in their schools,
now that they've seen a few hundred cases
coming out of these schools,
they're shutting the schools down.
Not everything, not higher ed kids
that are about to take their big exams,
to high schoolers to get into college,
but younger kids,
they are all gonna be
virtual for the coming month.
And on the one hand, that has improved
the popularity of President Moon,
who is seen as handling
this very effectively
by the South Korean people.
So for those of you watching,
South Korea, as a country,
that's significant.
In the United States,
it certainly tells you
that as we try to get
kids to go back to schools
in areas where you have hot zones,
where you have lots of cases,
likely you're gonna have a lot
of schools closing down again.
I think it's hard to imagine that schools
are gonna be able to open
feasibly and across the board,
at least until next year,
that's my view right now.
And for all of you parents
out there that are like,
please God, get my kids out of the house,
I can't take this, I'm also working,
so is my husband, so
is my wife, I'm sorry,
but I think that's where we're going.
It's going to be challenging.
I've only seen them come out
of one news source so far.
I don't find them very credible.
It's not the first time.
Last time around a couple of months ago,
reported widely by the AP and CNN,
and it turned out there was no such thing.
We have very little information
on what's happening inside North Korea.
And you know, you don't have
intelligence that's coming out.
You don't have journalists on the ground
that have sources that are off the record.
So, you basically have
to deal with accounts
that come from people
that have left North Korea
who certainly have political agendas
and can't really be trusted
about what they do and don't know,
and whatever you can find,
the tea leaves you can read
from watching North
Korean state television,
state media, satellite imagery,
that gives you a lot of
information when they're preparing,
say, nuclear ballistic missile tests,
it gives you very little information
when you're talking
about whether Kim Jong-un
is alive or dead.
The fact that they
thought he was in a coma
a couple of months ago, and
now they're saying it again,
I don't have any particular
reason to believe it,
nor do I have any reason to believe
that North Korea is
gonna cause much trouble,
especially in the run up to US elections.
I think they, at the very least, wanna see
what's going to happen out of the US
before they decide how
much they want to orient
towards more friendly engagement,
see if they can shake some cash loose,
or a tougher policy to see if
they can shake some cash lose.
Either way, the outcome
they're looking for
is shaking some cash loose.
That's it for me.
I will talk to you all soon.
Be good, avoid people.
