It's 1:39 my time.
And I'll write for one minute,  
and
 hopefully we'll see  something 
come
 across the screen screen.
This is a test.
Captioning test.
This is a test.
Now is the time for all good men
to
 come to the aid of their  
country.
This is a test of the captioning
stream.
This is a captioning test.
Now is the time for all good men
to
come to the aid of their  
country.
Today is the first day of the  
rest
of my life.
Now is the time for all good men
to
 come to the aid of their  
country.
It looks like it's just been 30 
seconds.
So... now is the time for all  
good
men to come to the aid of  their
 country.
Now is the time for all good men
to
come to the aid of their  
country.
This is a captioning test.
This is a captioning test.
This is a captioning test.
This is a captioning test.
This is a captioning test.
This is a captioning test.
Dr. Jennifer Strauss.
UC Berkeley.
Earthquake
Gast
lyGast
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Ph.D
>> 
[  Singing  ]
Seismology
Size
>> For those watching online, we
will
start in about five minutes  to 
give
those who are coming  from their
 last appointment time  to 
arrive.
Thank you.
You
>> We got a thumb's up.
Hello, and welcome to UC  
Berkeley's
summer staff  appreciation week 
keynote,
my  name is Kate Lewis, and I'm 
an
associate director in the  
industry
alliance office, also  currently
 the co-chair of this  advisory 
committee
 known as CP a a.
C.
Advocateing for the creation of 
appreciation
 and recognition  events for 
staff
 which include  summer fest and 
include
 staff  appreciation week in the
summer,
  fall and spring.
I hope you can stop by tomorrow 
during
summer fest.
The keynote today, we will hear 
from
 Dr. General Jen Strauss which 
is
  from the Berkeley seismology 
lab lab.
Tomorrow, we hope to see you at 
our
 annual summer fest event,  
enjoying
 the food, games, visit visiting
our
 staff work tables,  music and 
much
 more.
On Friday, join us for UC walk, 
great
prizes of the flash mob.
Check out the staff appreciation
week
 Web page for all of these  
events.
I would also like to introduce  
James,
 our campus --
[ Applause ]
Our campus employee experience  
lead.
If you have any questions or  
suggestions
 or recommendations  for staff 
appreciation,
 or staff  appreciation week, 
you
 can reach  out to James.
He can be reached at JDUDE EK@ 
EK@berkeley.EDU.
Joining Berkeley in 2012, Dr.  
Dr. Jen
Strauss served as the  
scientifically
a asson for the  Berkeley seismo
logical
laboratory.
Regional Coordinator, and the  
vice
 chair of the joint  Committee 
for
 Communication,  education and 
outreach
 for the  early earthquake 
warning
 system.
She recently wrote the early  
earthquake
warning chapter for  haywireed, 
the
fault scenario  which is an 
earthquake
prepared preparedness initiative
.
And ensure that everyone is  
prepared.
And that was released earlier  
this
year.
I encourage you to check that  
out
 if you haven't already.
As the staff member at UC  
Berkeley,
Jen has collaborateed  with 
staff,
faculty and students  to further
 the study of science  behind 
earthquakes,
 foster  innovation, and further
the
  development of novel 
technology
  for gee physical research.
For more information about GSL, 
check
out their website at  earthquake
s.Berkeley.EDU.
Without further ado, I'm pleased
to
introduce Dr. Jennifer  Strauss.
[ Applause ]
>> Strauss: Thank you, Kate,  
thank
you to everyone joining in  
person
and online.
We're going to have a bit of fun
for
 this presentation.
I hope it's a little interactive
interactive.
I hope you all will participate 
later.
I'm going to be here discussing 
earthquake
hazards in the bay  area, what 
you
need to know  about living in 
earthquake
country, address some of the  
science
that we study at the  seismology
 lab to learn more  about this 
earthquake
 hazard and  put products and 
initiatives
 in  place so that we can better
bounce
 back from earthquake  hazards.
We're also going to spend a  
little
bit of time at the end  dispel
ling
some common myths  about 
earthquakes,
so I hope you  find this talk 
enjoyable
and not  just scarey
.
[ Laughter ]
When you talk about California, 
you
talk about earthquakes.
We have earthquake hazards in  
this
 area, it's one of the most  
active
 places in the United  States 
for
 earthquakes.
This map is on the left is from 
the
uniform California  earthquake 
rupture
forecast and  what it does is it
 looks at  movement  movements 
on
 the fault that have  happened 
in
 the past, with the  ruptures 
that
 have happened on  different 
faults
 in the past and  then tries to 
decide
 on a set of  probabilities, the
likelihood
  that that piece of the fault 
is
  going to rep church, and they 
do
  this on a time frame, right?
You have to associate  
probabilities
with some time  frame.
So what they chose to do is do  
it
 based on a 30-year plan.
What happens over the course of 
30
years that you might have to  
worry
about in terms of  earthquakes?
The mortgage on your house,  
right?
So this is a good tool for  
people
 to look at if you're  about to 
to
 become a homeowner so  you know
what
 is the likelihood  that your 
residence
 will  experience a damaging 
earthquake
  above magnitude 6.7 in the 
next
  30 years.
So you can see, well, we got two
main
problems in the bay area.
We have a northern part of the  
San
 Andreas fault which has  about 
a
 33% probability of  having that
size
 of a rupture  and then we also 
have
 the  consist hey
Hayward fault.
So people have been working to  
try
 to understand how these  
ruptures --
 this doesn't mean  that for 
sure
 this is going to  happen.
This is an estimate of what the 
probability
is.
And so a lot of people have been
working
 very hard on campus to  
increase
 our resilientcy to  earthquakes
because
 this is such  a hazard for our 
area.
Okay.
That sort of sets the stage.
Now, as Kate mentioned, I helped
work
 on the Haywired scenario,  
which
 is an imagination of what  
could
 happen.
What could happen if there's a  
magnitude
7 earthquake under  Oakland on 
April 18th,
2018,  at around 4:00 in the 
afternoon?
What would happen?
What does that look like?
How are our various industries  
affected?
How are our people affected?
You start propagateing that out 
into
 the two years after that  event
,
 and see what happens.
So what has happened according  
to
the scenario?
411,000 people displaced from  
their
 homes.
We have six weeks of water out 
outages
in some areas in certain  really
 fragile area, you have up  to 
six
 months of water loss.
You have fire.
Fire following earthquake is one
of
 the most destructive pegss of  
after
 pieces  of after-earthquake 
events.
A lot of our fire capabilities.
You have an estimate of 800  
deaths.
1800 injuries, and all of this  
totals
up into a two-year cost  of $82 
billion.
Okay.
Those are pretty sobering  
numbers,
 and you may be thinking  all of
a
 sudden, gosh, this is  summer 
fest,
 why did you bring  me here?
[ Laughter ]
Terrible.
I was going to get some lunch.
But my friend told me to come  
here,
 and now this is awful.
Okay.
[ Laughter ]
We're the University, right?
So knowledge is power.
As I said before, the Hay wired 
scenario
is a make believe  scenario of 
what
could happen  with the way 
things
are right  now.
You think about those  
probabilities
 I showed on the  previous slide
.
Those are 30% chances over the  
course
 of 40 years.
We can do a whole lot to change 
these
numbers.
And that's the entire purpose of
this
 scenario is to give people  
tools
 to actually do an analysis  of 
what
 their vulnerabilityies  are, 
what
 their fragileityies are,  so 
they
 can then address those  
problems.
A lot of times if you talk about
big
 massive earthquakes that are  
going
 to cause calamityies,  
sometimes
 it's just too hard.
Why even bother?
There's nothing I can do.
If you break it up into little  
chunks
and actually look at,  okay, 
which
water pipes cross  the fault?
Which ones are there?
Maybe we prioritize fixing those
ones
first and that can do a lot  to 
increase
your resilientcy and  your 
ability
to cope with the  after math.
And I just lost my clicker.
Here we government we knowHere 
we
go.
We know there's going to be  
infrastructure
 damage and fires.
We know there's going to be  
buildings
that don't stand up to  the 
earthquakes.
What can we do about it?
Talk to your landlord.
If you're a homeowner, look at  
your
house, is there retro 
retrofitting
that can be done?
Sometimes there's grants we can 
get
 from the state to finance  said
retrofits.
So there you go.
Win for everybody.
You can look at fire  
infrastructure,
 having water  available to put 
out
 fires,  perhaps use things like
early
  warning.
We'reWe're going to talk about 
later
to reduce ignition hazards, if  
you're
going to turn off a gas  line, 
gas
can't start a fire.
We know that loss of power,  
Internet
 and cell service is  going to 
be
 something we have to  face.
It happens after a lot of  
different
calamityies.
So how do we build our ourselves
resilientcy
 so that we're not all  just 
compelled
 to our cell phone phone, right?
Like, we had to live outside of 
that
technology bubble a little  bit.
And then workplace disruption.
The UC Berkeley campus puts on  
almost
every two years a  disaster 
exercise,
and for the  past two of those 
exercises,
for  sure, they've been about  
earthquakes.
And different subject matter  
experts
from transportation,  from the P
ang
center, from the  Emergency 
Management
groups have  gotten together and
 started map mapping out 
responses
 for the  campus.
So number one, if you're  
interested
in that sort of thing thing, see
 how you can get  involved.
Number two, that's a good time  
of
year to be sitting and  thinking
 well, have I talked to  my 
superviseor,
 or if I'm a  superviseor, have 
I
 talked to my  employees about 
what
 they're  supposed to do?
Can they work remotely?
If they're allowed to work  
remotely,
 have they ever done  that?
Do they have a VPN set up on  
their
computer to do that?
Do they know what to do if they 
can't
 get to campus?
Are they a key personnel that  
needs
to get to campus?
These are things that you can  
work
 out before the disaster and  
give
 everybody a bit of  empowerment
to
 feel a little  more able to 
tackle
 these sort  of issues.
Okay.
So we know those are going to be
problems.
So what can we do about it?
Well, normally, we learn about  
earthquakes
by seeing everything  that 
happens
after it.
We can see the landscape  
changing.
We can see things breaking.
We can see things needing to be 
rebuilt.
But these scenarios give us an  
opportunity
to imagine that  happening 
without
having to live  it.
And then to change what we're go
going
 through.
So here at the Berkeley  
seismology
lab, we are not only  working on
 these scenarios to  help 
imagine
 what happened, but  also try to
put
 together  scientific tools so 
that
 we can  understand the 
earthquake
  problem a little bit better, 
and
  have people be able to take  
actions
 in response to that.
And we do this because we have  
super
awesome staff.
Okay?
So our mission is sound science 
serving
society.
We put out earthquake  
information.
When you hear stuff that the USG
USGS
 puts out.
Earthquake magnitudes, location.
A lot of the work that goes  
behind
 that sort of notification  
comes
 from the staff at UC  Berkeley.
And so we all work together to  
make
living in earthquake  country 
not
so bad.
So just wanted to recognize a  
really
 great staff at the BSL  and 
give
 them all a shoutout,  because 
they're
 super awesome.
Okay.
So what is one of the projects  
that
 staff, researches researchers, 
faculty
  ant students  and students all
work
 on  together?
Earthquake early warning.
Some of you may have heard about
the
 shake alert project.
It's been over the news.
Its goal is to provide  
earthquake-early
 warning.
This is not earthquake  
prediction.
This is not a probability  
forecast.
This is information that an  
earthquake
has happened and the  shaking is
 headed your way, and  hopefully
we
 get that message to  you before
the
 shaking gets to  you.
We have senseorred all of the  
west
coast of the United States,  
when
an earthquake happens, the  
fault
brakes breaks.
That big huge piece of rock  
moving
 against that whole other  big 
piece
 of rock makes a lot of  energy 
release.
Okay?
And the energy and different  
types
of energy move at  different 
rates,
so you have  some wave fronts, 
like
the P  wave in this very lovely 
diagram
here, that's in yellow.
The compressional wave front,  
and
 it travels at about twice  the 
speed
 of what we call the X  wave 
which
 is a more translation 
translational
 wave which is more  of the 
damaging
 shaking.
Okay?
So if you can look at the P wave
wave,
 if you can measure that on  
your
 sensors, if you can  
characterize
 something about  that P wave 
quick
 enough, then  you can send 
communications
 that  travel close to the speed
of
  limit, faster than that S wave
that
 gets to you.
We are not talking about very  
large
prediction times like for  
hurricanes
where you get days or  tornadoes
 or where you get 30  minutes, 
we're
 talking about  zero seconds or 
seconds
 or tens  of seconds.
This is all very fast.
Nobody is getting a house retro 
retrofitted
 or or any of those  things in 
that
 amount of time.
[ Laughter ]
You need to focus and go, okay?
But this is the thing that we're
working
on all together.
So this video, already playing, 
good,
 is a little demonstration  of 
how
 that could possibly  happen, 
and
 this is very thanks  to staff 
over
 the public affairs  who helped 
put
together this for  us.
>> Once there was a bill named  
bill.
Each time he fought the China  
shop.
He couldn't help to cry out for 
(indiscernible)
 earthquake, drop drop, cover 
and
 roll.
>> Earthquake, drop, cover, hold
on.
Strong shaking expected.
Earthquake, drop, cover, hold  
...
[ Thunder  ]
[  Singing  ]
  Are we ready?
  Yes, we're
ready.
>> Strauss: Nothing gets one's  
message
 across like adoreable  
preschoolers,
 we milk that video  for all we 
can.
This is not pie in the sky,  
maybe
 one day we could do  earthquake
warning.
This is happening.
We are about to launch a limited
rollout
this year.
We work together with University
of
 Oregon, University of  
Washington,
 Caltech, the United  States 
geological
 survey, the  Moore foundation 
to
 bring  earthquake early 
warnings
 to  California, this is proveen
technology.
Being worked on by 27 different 
pilots
 around the west coast of  the 
United
 States.
These include greats like Bay  
Area
Rapid Transit, Chevron, LA  
Metro.
Emergency Management, utilities,
healthcare,
transportation, and  education, 
and
we're trying to  brings this to 
the
west coast of  the United States
,
we have  support from congress 
who
is  funding us.
We have support from the states 
that
 are funding us to make this  a 
reality.
So people can use those precious
seconds
 to try to take  protective 
action,
 so that,  again, we can change 
these
  numbers that are in the 
scenario scenarios.
And so this has been a long-time
coming,
 we've been working on  this, 
man,
 since about 2006.
Started working with external  
shakeholders
in 2012.
The full public rollout is not  
going
 to be happening in 2018.
That is because we do not have  
infrastructure
in the United  States to get an 
alert
out to  every single person in 
sub
one- one-second time frames.
So we're having to build this  
from
 the ground up.
But it won't be just useful for 
earthquake
early warning.
You can use it for all other  
scenarios
 once we get this thing  done.
So that is just proveen  
technology
piece that we're  working toward
 to bring more  resilientcy to 
places
 like the  Bay Area.
But we also don't stop there.
We have new research initiatives
that
 are looking at how can we  take
this
 a step farther?
How can we learn more?
And one of those things is the  
my
 shake project.
The my shake project is pretty  
similar
to what we're trying to  do with
 shake alert, except that  this 
is
 the research side of  things.
So this is a citizen science  
initiative
instead of using all  of the 
sensors
in the ground,  these very high 
quality
instruments that could even feel
  your heart Wall Street beat if
you're
  standing a few feet away from 
the
 device, instead we're using  
devices
 that probably most  people in 
this
 room have in  their pocket, and
it's
 a  SmartPhone.
There's a little accelerometer  
in
your cell phone that thoughs  if
 you're playing some sort of  
crazy
 game, it knows that you've  
tilted
 it this way or the other.
This same sensor can be moved to
measure
earthquakes, not as well  as the
 high quality sensor, but  
enough
 that we can use it, and  
because
 there's a lot more of  you than
there
 are sensors, we  can add an 
aggregate
 an and aggregate all of  this 
information
 together to get  only  not only
a
 better idea but also  to get 
much
 more coverage.
The way this works as it has
has an
  artificial neuro network on 
the
  phone that looks at a certain 
set
 of features and decides is  
that
 feature more indicative of  an 
earthquake
 or is that feature  more 
indicative
 of a human  activity.
When we think about shaking, we 
think
about violent shaking,  things 
moving,
things falling.
Human activities can get more  
crazy
 than earthquake shaking.
How easy you is it for me to do 
one
G?
I lifted off the ground.
I overcame gravity for a  
Sheriff's
Deputy period of time.
These types of features can be  
tracked.
Human emotions kind of end up in
a
 different part of the graph  
than
 all of the earthquake  motions 
and
 this is very much  true if you 
use
 more than just  two features.
You start stacking these things.
You start learning what human  
activities
 look like, what  earthquakes 
looks
 like, and then  the phone can 
decide
 itself was  this an earthquake,
or
 was it  just Jane walking down 
the
  street?
So we take that information, you
can
send it up to the cloud.
You aggregate it with all of the
other
 phones in the area, with  the 
hope
 that one day, we can  use that 
to
 provide earthquake- 
earthquake-early
 warning.
Now, why is that important?
Jen, you just told me, we have  
this
 lovely rollout of the  system 
happening
 in 2018, why  are you wasteing 
your
 time?
Well, because California is not 
the
only place that is  earthquake 
country,
right?
There are earthquakes happening 
all
 over the globe and there are  
also
 earthquakes happening in  place
s
 that have very high  seismic 
risk,
 but very low  infrastructure to
deal
 with  things like having a 
world-class
  seismic network with 24/7  
monitoring
 and a world-class  research 
institution
 behind it.
We've identified 496 earthquakes
globally
with the my shake app.
Go to a very small earthquake,  
very
 large earthquake, very  shallow
quakes
 to the very deep  quakes, and 
this
 gives you the  opportunity to 
not
 only perhaps  one day bring 
earthquake-early
  warning to underserved country
ies
  in the world, but it also 
gives
  us the ability to harness a  
global
 seismic network that is  the 
largeest
 on the planet.
You start talking about millions
and
millions of phones  contributing
 to one network, to  one vision,
imagine
 the amount  of science that you
could
 do  with that.
Imagine the difference in the  
amount
of data.
You know, we can't predict  
earthquakes
 right now.
One of those reasons is because 
we
don't have a lot of  information
 on a lot of  earthquakes, you 
know?
We just don't have them, these  
large
 events even globally don't  rap
on
 a repeatable scale where  you 
can
 get great Dia De Los  Muertos 
to
 data to run  every scenario 
that
 your mind  can gin up.
So that's why we're working on  
the
my shake project, and the  shake
 alert project, and this is  
just
 part and parcel of the  science
that
 we do in the  seismology lab 
including
 things  like tomography studies
and
  Vulcanism studies to better  
understand
 earthquake science as  it's 
happening
 around.
Okay, so why is this important?
Why do we love this?
Because it's not a matter of if 
but
when, I can cannot give a  quote
 attribution to this,  because 
pretty
 much everyone  everywhere says 
this.
This is just something that  
happens.
What can you do?
What can you take away from this
talk
today?
Many of you might be super  
interested
 in tomography or P  wave versus
S
 wave wave  propagation speed.
You might have this burning  
desire
to come work at the BSL,  but 
maybe
you could do a little  bit to 
make
your resilientcy plan  a little 
bit
better.
So I'm giving you all home work.
I know it's summer time, summer 
school
here, your home work  assignment
 is to complete the  next seven 
steps
 I'm going to  take you through 
which
 are the  seven steps to 
earthquake
  resilience put together by  
earthquake
 county alliance, and  you do 
not
 need to do all of  these today.
It is a long-term project, maybe
work
on one a month, so in the  next 
seven
months you will be  ready.
Okay.
Step number one, take some notes
notes.
Secure your space, right?
We do not want any giant vases  
or
 priceless piece of art hung  up
over
 your bed.
We do not want giant book cases 
that
are not strapped to the  walls, 
things
that are very,  very heavy on 
top
shelves.
This does not mean you have to  
go
 like completely crazy and  
museum
 putty like all of your  drink 
ware
 to everything.
No, be reasonable, if it looks  
like
it's here or higher on you,  it 
could
call and crush you,  strap it 
down,
if it's a pillow  on a high 
shelf,
probably fine.
Okay?
Look at your surroundings, not  
only
in your house but place of  work
.
A lot of us spend time at UC  
Berkeley.
You need your office to be as  
lovely
as your home.
So work on that.
Secure your space.
Step number two, make a plan.
So in the context of us living  
in
a wired world, a wired  
community,
we're you all on our  cell phone
s,
we all, you know,  we don't even
 know if we have  bread at home,
texting
 somebody,  did you get the 
bread,
 is the  store still open?
I don't know.
Ask Google.
If the communications go down  
like
they have gone down in  almost 
every
single calamity, we  need to 
have
a plan.
You need to not have to call  
your
 loved ones, your children,  
whoever
 is taking care of your  pets, 
and
 then have the nice 30- 
30-minute
 conversation of how  you're 
going
 to get to them,  where you're 
meeting
 them and so  on.
Many of us in the Bay Area don't
work
where we live, right?
I live on the peninsula.
My whole family is over on that 
side
of the water.
I need to have a plan to let  
them
 know am I coming to you?
Are we both meeting somewhere  
else?
What is our plan?
I don't want to have to rely on 
texting
 getting through.
When I was a kid, you went to  
the
mall.
Nobody had cell phones.
It was like your mom telling you
you,
we're meeting by the  fountain 
in
30 minutes if you go  off, right
?
It's like that.
It doesn't have to be crazy  
detailed
 but get a plan together 
together.
Organize your supplies.
The BSL has put together a  
really,
I like to think, great  video on
 building an emergency  kit.
You want to have about 72 hours 
worth
of food and drink so that  you 
can
get through those first  three 
days.
Because if the roads are crazy, 
Red
Cross is not getting to  people,
 you know, 30 minutes  after the
event.
It's just not happening.
Medicine, if you are somebody  
who
relyies on medicine to live  
your
life to the fullest, to  make 
sure
you have extra.
You want to have cash, again, 
with the power being down, cash 
is
going to be king.
You're not going to be able to  
use
 your ATM card to get some  
extra
 money because you are  hungry.
Okay.
The other thing to think about  
is
 the 17 -- 72 hours is a  
guideline.
Some people go a little bit less
less.
Some people go super crazy with 
this
 bunker in their back garage  
with,
 you know, six months worth  of 
food.
And on on the out jet,
-- outset that
 seems  simple.
That's a lot of food and water  
to
have 0 replace if food expire 
expires.
It's wasteful.
Number two, we talked about  
buildings
 and retrofit.
Do people understand that number
one,
the building code, because  it 
is
rated for life safety,  does not
 mean it is occupiable  after 
the
 event.
I will say that again:  Just  
because
your building or place  of 
business
is rated for life  safety does 
not
mean it is  immediately 
occupiable
after the  event.
That means that your life will  
be
 safe and you can exit the  
building.
Okay?
So it does no good if you've got
six
and a half months worth of  food
 and water in a bunker in  your 
basement
 somewhere if the  building 
inspectors
 come by and  say, "I'm very 
sorry,
 you're red  tagged".
You can also get red tagged for 
your
building even if your  building 
is
completely fine.
The building next to yours is go
going
 like this toward your  building
,
 thesh not letting you  back in 
your
 building to get  your water.
They're just not.
It's unsafe for you to be there.
You want to be nimble, you want 
to
be mobile, you want to have  
plans
and contingency plans so  that 
you
can do what you need to  do.
Okay.
Again, this is going to affect  
certain
areas, it's not going to  affect
 other areas.
May take you awhile to get other
places,
we're not talking  Armageddon.
Everything is like western part 
of
 the United States, just down  
for
 the count.
That is not what's happening.
So just have a reasonable plan  
so
 that you can chill and decide  
what
 to do next.
Okay.
Secure your affairs.  This goes 
with
 retrofitting your own place  of
residence,
 talking to your  landlord, if 
you
 do not own your  place and 
seeing
 what they have  done, getting 
your
 documents  together, making 
sure
 if you  choose to have 
earthquake
  insurance, that you have that 
filed
 before the event, because  
they're
 not going to let you  sign up 
for
 it after the event.
Right?
Okay.
When the earthquake happens,  
what
do we do?
Drop, cover, hold on.
Okay.
Every fall, there's an annual  
shakeout
 exercise that is put  together 
by
 the earthquake  county alliance
.
How many people in this room,  
and
 please audience on the  
Internet,
 participate, even  though I 
can't
 see you.
How many of you, when that  
happens,
do you actually drop,  cover and
 hold on?
That is so good.
I'm glad to see all those hands,
and
 shame on you, the other  hands.
[ Laughter ]
Okay?
The whole point of doing an  
exercise
like that is not so  that people
 can regurgitate the  words drop
,
 cover, hold on, when  asked 
that
 question.
The whole point of doing the  
exercise
is so that it is muscle  memory,
 so that when you feel  the 
shaking,
 you immediately  drop, and you 
already
 have  located the place that is
safeest
  in your office or your home or
your
 school if you're picking  
people
 up from there.
You've already figured that all 
out
and you've practiced it, so  
that
in those couple of seconds  that
 you have before the shaking  
gets
 crazy, you're not then  putting
together
 your disaster  preparedness 
plan,
 right?
Work on the five Ps, proper,  
prior,
planning prevent, seven P Ps, 
right?
Seven Ps.
Drop, cover, hold on.
Got two more.
After the event happens, we want
to
 evacuate.
You are all going to have to  
evacuate
on this campus from  your 
building.
After an earthquake.
It doesn't matter if you are in 
the
 most fancy building with all  
the
 space isolators, the  building 
people
 are going to  make you get out.
I don't care if you have a fancy
thing
that you got to do,  they're 
going
to make you get  out.
Evacuate.
Help other people who can't get 
out.
Help your community.
We all are in this together.
It is not, you know, a solo  
mission.
And finally,
restore, rebuild  better,
 we can all get through  this 
together.
There have been earthquakes that
happened
 in this area before.
There will be earthquakes that  
happen
again.
We're all still here, we're all 
still
 together.
We can do this.
Okay.
So I talked about earthquake  
hazards
and freaked you out a  little 
bit.
We talked about earthquake  
science,
and we've talked about  ways 
that
you can prepare and  get 
yourself
ready to do the  best thing you 
can
when faced  with an earthquake 
rupture.
So I gave you your home work  
assignment,
and now it's pop  quiz time.
Okay?
So I'm going to have my lovely  
assistant,
Kate and japes, James here,  and
 we're going to have five pop  
quiz
 questions, and I do hope  the 
people
 watching online  participate as
well
 and jot down  your answers and 
we'll
 see if we  get them all right.
So this is where we confirm or  
bust
some myths about earthquake 
earthquakes
that happen.
And we're going to make use of  
Hollywood
 to help us through  this 
scenario.
So first up, we have the movie, 
oh,
 my lands, where is my mouse?
How am I going to click on this?
Oh, on the screen.
Thank you, everybody gets bonus 
credit
for helping the person  who 
can't
see where everything  went.
Oh, my land.
There we go.
Here we go.
Okay.
2012, the movie was released in 
2009,
just to be super confusing 
confusing,
earthquake swallows  Los Angeles
 starring John Cusack Cusack, 
come
 on, play my video.
Okay.
So what do we think about that  
one,
 is that -- is that  confirmed 
or
 busted?
Earthquake swallows Los Angeles 
in
epic fashion.
Any confirmed?
Okay.
Y'all are all very good at this 
game.
Totally busted, right?
So earthquakes don't like  
swallow
things in like giant  camps like
 that.
Earthquakes can do some really  
like
crazy things like create  water 
falls
where there were  none to have 
existed
before.
They can cause very long lifts.
They cause -- a bunch of the  
beautiful
landscape that we have  around 
here
in the bay area, but  there's 
not
this magma-filled Ch Chasm that 
opens
up and swallows  entire cities.
Okay.
Next one, we have
the rock,  Dwayne
 Johnson, Tsunami warn warning
.
>> What's happening?
>> We've got to go.
>> Strauss: Okay.
Water being pulled out like that
is
 a Tsunami.
Tsunami warning sign.
Confirmed or busted?
We've got some confirmed.
Any busted?
Okay.
Okay.
Very good.
This is confirmed.
Okay.
If you were ever on the shore 
shoreline
 and you feel super  heavy 
shaking,
 you want to run,  right?
You want to get out, because  
that
is a Tsunami sign, but  water 
being
pulled out in a big  fashion 
like
that is also a  Tsunami warning 
sign.
Okay?
And so just keep that in mind.
Don't wait for like your  
neighbor
to say anything.
You need to tell your neighbor, 
we've
 got to go, okay?
Now, what you probably don't  
want
to do if you see Tsunami  
warning
is drive your boat  toward the 
Tsunami.
So continuing on in this same  
scene
from San Andreas, I really  
wanted
to get this --
okay, this  is what
 we call a title bore.
So mega Tsunami in San Francisco
Bay,
confirmed or busted?
Got any confirmed?
Got a couple of confirmed.
This one is a little trickier,  
right,
because you've seen movie  
features
about this, you've seen  on the 
news
about tideal bores,  these 
really
big things, let's  raise some 
concerns
and say this  one, mega Tsunami 
in
the Bay is  actually busted, for
 a couple of  reasons.
Okay?
First reason is
San Francisco  Bay
 doesn't have that enough  water
--
  much water.
We just don't.
It's not going to make this huge
tideal
 bore in the Pacific ocean.
That is not reasonable.
Okay.
Number two, the type of  
earthquakes
that we get in the  San 
Francisco
Bay area are  called strike slip
 earthquakes  for the most part.
The plates move side to side  
past
each other.
Okay?
If you've ever taking any box  
inside
water.
What does a whole lot?
Up and down motion.
If you have uplift of plates,  
you
 have big events happening,  
that's
 what causes the Tsunami,  the 
ocean
 floor rises up, and  then that 
water
 has to go  somewhere.
Okay?
So generally speaking, you're  
going
 to get tideal bore effects  for
near
 shore events.
So Japan during a large event  
could
get something resembleing  that,
 though they usually get  what 
is
 thought of as a normal  Tsunami
where
 it floods of water  and water 
and
 water coming all  after the 
other.
So we don't have that kind of  
scenario
 here in the Bay Area.
So we're not likely to get  
anything
resembleing this, but  still 
take-home
measures do not  gravitate 
toward
a Tsunami.
Okay.
Next one.
We have
leks Luther here.
>> It occurs to me a bomb would 
destroy
 most of California.
Innocent people would be killed.
The west coast as we know it  
would...
>> Fall into the sea
.
>> Strauss: Okay.
So bomb induced mega quake, is  
this
plausible?
Can we confirm if somebody was  
nefarious
 enough to drop some  bombs on a
fault
 line that they  could induce a 
big
 giant  earthquake.
Busted.
Any confirms?
One confirmed.
Okay.
The busteds win.
Okay.
So a couple of things here.
Number one, it would be -- it  
would
 be a calamity unknown past  all
calamityies
 that anybody has  observed over
earth
 to have  California just fall 
into
 the  ocean like that.
Okay, number one, number two, as
we
said again, strike slip plate 
plates,
big movements would have  L.A. 
become
a suburb of San  Francisco, not 
that
it's going  to crash into the 
ocean
much to  the chagrin of Lex 
Luther.
We spoke about before the amount
of
energy that it takes to move  
two
huge massive pieces of rock  
past
each other, right?
And how compression waves can  
move
 faster than transverse wave 
waves
 because all of that motion  is 
it's
 huge, think about  lifting a 
normal
 rock you find  in your back 
yard,
 that is  really heavy.
We're talking about hundreds of 
miles
of rock.
Like, no, we do not have  
anything
 man made that is going  to make
that
 big of an energy  release.
We just don't have it.
And so that is not feasible mega
bomb,
 and somebody knowledgeable  in 
the
 audience might say, but,  but, 
but,
 Jen, I hear all the  time 
people
 talking about if we  can just 
induce
 a whole bunch of  little tiny 
earthquakes,
 right,  that would be the same 
thing
 as  one giant one, right?
No, that is also a myth, because
the
earthquake magnitude scale  is 
not
a linear scale, okay?
A magnitude four quake is not  
twice
 as big as a magnitude two  
quake.
Each one is an exponential scale
scale.
You need 32 magnitude 2s to  
equal
 one magnitude 3.
You need another 32 magnitude 3 
3s,
which is 900 didn't  something 
--
you keep going up  that list to 
where
we're talking  about a mega 
quake
of like  magnitude 9.5, that 
hypeed
in  Chile in the '60s, it's just
  absurd.
You can't do it.
We do not need to fear Lex  
Luther
 and his terrible minions  
dropping
 everything into Los  Angeles 
and
 building a new  subdivision.
Okay.
So
we put on high budget movies.
The next one is a made-for-TV  
movie,
 I had to yank it off of  video 
clips,
 the video quality  is not so 
great,
 but it was  wonderful, so I had
to
 show it.
Come back here.
Okay.
So this is from the made-for-TV 
movie,
the big one, the great  Los 
Angeles
earthquake which was  in 1990.
Come back here.
>> Video:
In golden, Colorado,  to
 determine the exact magnitude  
of
 each earthquake.
>> Okay.
When is it going to end?
>> Already comment on science.
>> Strauss: Okay.
So earthquake prediction, is  
your
guess as good as mine?
[ Laughter ]
This is when people stop wanting
to
answer questions, right?
Okay.
So earthquake pre-dictions, your
guess
is as good as mine, is  that 
confirmed
or not?
>> Audience: (indiscernible).
>> Strauss: Very good.
Very good.
So we're talking prediction, not
just
forecasting, like saying,  on 
April 16th
of 2030, there's  going to be a 
magnitude
6  earthquake in Chile at 4:00 
in
the morning.
No, we can't do that.
So it is confirmed that  
earthquake
prediction is your  guess is as 
good
as mine.
I really like this clip for a  
couple
 of reasons.
Number one, this movie was set  
at
this fictitious seismology  lab 
that
sounded a whole lot  like 
Caltech,
okay?
And so it's very much true that 
number
 one Caltech, UC Berkeley,  and 
the
 USGS coordinate together  to 
provide
 earthquake  information to all 
of
 the people  around here.
That's how it's happened.
That's how we work.
The other cool thing about this 
clip
is this is kind of like my  life
.
You know, people walk around, oh
oh,
can you answer some  questions 
about
earthquake  science?
And they always ask the same  
thing,
 when is the big one  coming?
Can we predict earthquakes this 
can
I take a shot of your Healy HELI
CO HELICORDER
in the corning they  won't stop 
filming
and we saw a  couple of those in
 that scene.
This is basically what I wanted 
to
give y'all just a little  flavor
 of, this kind of short  talk, 
really
 can't do a deep  dive into any 
one
 of these topic topics, but if 
you
 want to learn  more about any 
of
 the research  we do, you can go
to
 our website website, at 
earthquakes.Berkeley 
earthquakes.Berkeley.edu.
If you want to learn more about 
the
my shake project.
Follow us on my shake app on  
Twitter,
 right now the app is  available
for
 an android.
Hopefully by the end of the Year
we
will have a brand-new version  
on
iOS as well.
If you want to learn more about 
that,
 you can send an e-mail to  us, 
ask
 to get on our mailing  list, if
you
 have any question,  you can 
always
 e-mail me.
Thank you so much.
I'm happy to answer any  
questions
 you might have.
[ Applause ]
Who has got the mic?
Thank you.
I have a question about stop or 
drop,
cover and hold.
What if you're, say, walking  
across
 memorial Glade and you're  in a
big
 open area, do you still  drop 
and
 cover.
>> Strauss: That was a really  
great
cover.
You would be what is beating me 
on
 the head here, I'm on a big  
grassy
 knoll.
The motion, Z waves is  
transverse
motion, so if you can  imagine 
walking
on a piece of  carpet and 
somebody
pulling the  carpet out from 
under
you, right right?
If you're standing up tall and  
walking,
 you're going to fall,  unless 
you're
 like some crazy  acrobat or 
whatever,
 okay?
But if you're already dropped on
the
ground, your center of  gravity 
is
lower, you might tip  over, but 
you're
less likely to  break a leg, so 
that
is the  purpose behind the drop 
prescription
is you never know  when the 
floor
is going to like  all of a 
sudden
move over here,  because you're 
not
coupled to  the floor.
You're not attached.
Even when gravity holds you down
down,
you're not attached, so if  it 
goes
that way, you're not go going 
with
it.
The other thing is drop is not  
feasible
 for all people, if  you're in a
wheelchair,
 you've  got a walker, whatever,
earthquake
 county alliance,  their website
has
 a lot of good  resources to 
where
 that applies  to you, one of 
your
 loved ones,  you can look at 
what
 some of  your suggestions are 
for
 that.
>> Audience: If it were to  
happen
this second, do we go to  door
ways,
what do we do?
>> Strauss: You definitely  want
 to drop first.
Drop is always the first thing  
you
 can do, because then you  have 
agility
 to go and make  further 
decisions.
In this room, the biggest issues
are
 these nonstructural hazard,  so
people
 in the front row,  sorry...
[ Laughter ]
... people back there, you're  
kind
 of -- I know.
This is no good.
We need them a tent or something
something.
So the most important thing is  
to
 protect is obviously the back  
of
 your head, oh, not like -- no 
no,
 you need to go down and  
protect
 it.
Okay?
Then what you can do is figure  
out,
 okay, what do I do next?
Okay.
When you come in, you can case  
around,
 okay, I'm okay here,  seats, 
pull
 a seat down, put my  head under
it,
 even if you're  not going to 
fit
 under it, you  can at least 
brace
 your head.
Generally, you don't want to  
stand
in a doorway, that is  because 
doorways
have doors,  right?
What is the last thing you need 
to
 be doing, standing in a door  
jam
 and have the door whack you  in
the
 face as soon as it moves.
Standing in these wood frame  
doorways
in beautiful Adobe  houses that 
fell
down, and they  survived because
 they were  standing in the door
way.
If this was an Adobe building,  
your
 best bet is that piece of  wood
to
 stand under.
We're not in an Adobe hut.
Let's not stand by the doors.
Please do not fight your  
neighbor
for a place, let's just  all 
Crouch
down and then when  the shaking 
is
over, you can get  out of the 
building.
If you are in a dangerous spot, 
and
you have to get out, then  again
,
drop and crawl out,  because it 
does
you no good if  you end up 
breaking
your leg  trying to walk out.
>> A question for that.
I heard the lab director talking
about
cuts, and the threat of  cuts 
and
funding for extending  the early
 warming season to  other region
s
 that have the full  deployment 
of
 sensors and you  alluded 
earlier
 to having  congressional 
funding
 for the  California portion, 
can
 you talk  about the current 
status
 of  funding?
>> Strauss: Exactly.
So twice in a row now, we've had
our
 budget zeroed out when the  
Presidential
 budget, but both  times we've 
managed
 to do some  very good work on 
Capitol
 Hill,  pleading our case, and 
congress
  has reinstated funding both  
times,
 so that's why we are  still on 
track
 for the federal  system.
California, State of California 
has
also put in money for the  
system,
so the rollout for sure  will be
 happening in California,  the 
states
 of Oregon and  Washington, that
is
 still sort  of under discussion
.
But, yeah, we've managed to eek 
out
 our federal funding the past  
two
 years, the hope is that  keeps 
continuing.
>> Audience: Cats or dogs,  
which
 ones are better at --
>> Strauss: This is another  one
 of my favorite questions.
Okay.
There's this animals predicting 
earthquakes.
You know, I'm under no delusions
that,
 yes, somebody may have a  dog 
or
 cat that is very  sensitive 
eithertor
 the P wave  shaking, sometimes 
humans
 don't  feel that because it's 
not
 a big  earthquake.
Maybe they felt the P wave.
Is there some sound that happens
at
 a frequency I can't hear?
Is there other thing we don't  
know
and animals are reacting to to?
I think it's an interesting  
thing
 to think about, and if  
somebody
 really wants to do that  as 
their
 research project, you  know, 
more
 power to them, the  more we 
know
 about things, the  better, but 
I
 just don't  understand the 
feasibility
 of  sitting down and doing a  
behavioral
 study on animals for  that sort
of
 longevity to get  enough 
statistics
 to make it  significant.
So dogs and cats, squirrels, you
know,
like they do stuff all the  time
.
[ Laughter ]
And so you have to rule out  
every
 single behavioral nuance.
Does it always predicate an  
earthquake?
Or does it not?
And when is the last time we had
a
 big huge earthquake around  
here?
Or anywhere around the world  
globally?
Like, you really have to  
document
 that, and that is why  it's 
anecdoteal.
It's interesting.
I don't think it's wrong.
But we have so many other sensor
sensors
 that can be doing this  sort of
thing
 that can look at  it without 
some
 human sitting  like -- no, okay
,
 is he smiling?
I don't know.
Does he look scareed?  There's a
bigger
 animal.
No, it's just not feasible.
>> Audience: When I finally  get
 around to doing my home work 
work,
where is the best place to  keep
 it.
You said earlier your house  
might
collapse, do you keep it  in the
 trunk of your car?
Do you keep it in a barrel in  
the
back yard.
>> Strauss: This is one of the  
most
 difficult things about  
earthquake
 preparedness because  every 
single
 answer boils down  to it 
depends,
 right?
Where should you
drop, cover and  hold
 on in your area?
It depends.
Seem people keep it in a shed in
the
 back yard, worst case share 
shareio,
 the shed -- you can  break it 
down
 and get to your  stuff.
I live in a condo, the distance 
between
my bed and my kitchen is  not 
that
far.
I just really have any go bag  
with
 all of my camping stuff  right 
next
 to my pantry, because because, 
you
 know, there's no  sense in 
putting
 it in some like  crazy place, 
you
 know?
And so you just have to look at 
there's
no right answer, right?
And even if you pick the best  
answer
 considering all of the  
circumstances
 around, it could  still mess up
.
It could be the one time this  
one
 thing fell, and who'd have  
thought,
 and you can't get get to it it.
So having maybe lots of  
different
things, maybe  something at work
,
maybe have  something in your 
car,
maybe you  have something more 
substantial
at home that you can get access
  to, maybe you have an actual 
go
  bag somewhere like in your  
garage
 that you think is the  best 
place,
 but then you also  keep in the 
back
 of your mind I  can also get to
my
 pantry, and  have stuff like 
that,
 so all my  answers are terrible
,
 but, you  know, it's that sort 
of
 thing  where you have to figure
out
  what works for you and what  
works
 for you is not going to  work 
for
 him, it's not going to  work 
for
 her, and we're all just  trying
our
 best.
>> All right.  Thanks very much.
I took one of those CERT classes
before
 about neighborhood  prepared
ness
 and such.
A couple of questions, one, does
information
about earthquakes  ever develop 
and
change over  five or ten years 
and
such?
And then, tables and hiding  
under,
 they talked about like a  gold
en
 triangle area where  something 
fell --
 but this is  years ago, right.
Wondering do those change or  
should
ever just get under  tables?
>> Strauss: So, yes, some  
earthquake
 information does  change over 
time.
Specifically for the earthquake 
like
 how big it was, where it  was, 
that
 doesn't change that  much.
It's not like you have the Nappa
earthquake
happened and it was a  magnitude
 6, ten years later,  we're go
ing
 to be like no it was  magnitude
3
 and it was in Boston Boston.
No, that doesn't happen.
But researchers going and  
getting
 the exact different  thing and 
tilting
 it this way  and that.
Now, the question about  
earthquake
actions, that does  change over 
time,
and a lot of  what is 
influencing
that is  emergency responders 
looking
at  who survived big events.
And if at first you said, okay, 
do
 this, and everybody did that,  
but
 then only people that did  that
plus
 something else  survived, then 
that
 changes, and  that is where 
this
 idea of the  triangle of life 
started
 is  because people were finding
people
 in little tiny triangles,  and 
at
 first you would think, oh oh, 
we
 should add this to our  survive
al
 tank, but that was an  issue of
not
 causation.
Right?
So of course if something falls 
over
 and you happen to be in  that 
void
 space, you're not  going to get
crushed,
 right, air er ergo you survived
.
However, all of the other people
that
 sat against a wall and  
something
 fell right on top of  them, 
they
 didn't fall.
There was no void space, and so 
there's
very, very difficult to  predict
 in the moment which way  things
are
 going to fall, right?
Am I safer standing on this side
of
the podium or this one?
In an event?
Well, depends if the podium fall
falls
this way or that way,  right?
If it falls this way and I was  
over
 here, I'm fine.
If it falls this way and I'm  
here,
I get squished.
So we do not promote triangle of
life
 because how do you locate  that
triangle?
And you have no idea where that 
triangle
 is, and so then it's  kind of 
pointless,
 however,  being under a sturdy 
table.
Sturdy table has a good chance, 
even
 if something falls on top  of 
it,
 has a good chance of  holding 
that
 up, and that is  always a void 
space,
 especially  if you hold on to 
it,
 you will  be fine.
So I think I'm getting like off 
the
stage so I'm going to stop  
there.
[ Applause ]
>> I just wanted to say what a  
wonderful,
wonderful way to kick  off sum
mer
staff appreciation.
I learned a lot.
I came in fifteen minutes late, 
but
I learned about P waves and  S 
waves
and all of the amazing  apps.
I'm not sure about the fact that
I
 know as much as you know.
That is a little worrisome, your
guess
is as good as my guess.
That is a little scarey.
I wanted to stop and say thank  
you
for being with us here today 
today.
Thank you for everything that  
you're
doing here at UC Berkeley 
Berkeley,
and also the  contradiction that
--
the huge  contradiction that 
you're
makeing  to the State of 
California,
and  the world.
[ Applause ]
And thank you to all of the UC  
Berkeley
staff.
>> Let's go home and do our home
work!
