>>> JUST A SHORT TIME FROM NOW,
>>> JUST A SHORT TIME FROM NOW, THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT IS SET TO
THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT IS SET TO BEGIN A KEY BREXIT VOTE,
BEGIN A KEY BREXIT VOTE, DECIDING IF IT’LL ACCEPT THE
DECIDING IF IT’LL ACCEPT THE AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED BY PRIME
AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED BY PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY’S
MINISTER THERESA MAY’S GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN
GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN UNION.
UNION. EARL
EARL EARLIER, THE BRITISH PRIME
EARLIER, THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER WARNED THAT WITHOUT
MINISTER WARNED THAT WITHOUT SUPPORT FOR HER DEAL, BREXIT
SUPPORT FOR HER DEAL, BREXIT COULD BE LOST.
COULD BE LOST. AND THE PRESSURE IS ON.
AND THE PRESSURE IS ON. THERE ARE ONLY 17 DAYS LEFT
THERE ARE ONLY 17 DAYS LEFT UNTIL THE TRANSITION PERIOD
UNTIL THE TRANSITION PERIOD BEGINS WITH OR WITHOUT A DEAL.
BEGINS WITH OR WITHOUT A DEAL. THE UK TRIGGERED A TWO-YEAR
THE UK TRIGGERED A TWO-YEAR CLOCK WHEN IT INVOKED THE EU
CLOCK WHEN IT INVOKED THE EU EXIT CLAUSE, AND THERE’S NO SIGN
EXIT CLAUSE, AND THERE’S NO SIGN THE EUROPEAN UNION IS INTERESTED
THE EUROPEAN UNION IS INTERESTED IN EXTENDING THAT DEADLINE.
IN EXTENDING THAT DEADLINE. ONE KEY ISSUE IN THIS WHOLE
ONE KEY ISSUE IN THIS WHOLE THING IS THIS.
THING IS THIS. THIS IS THE BORDER ALONG
THIS IS THE BORDER ALONG NORTHERN IRELAND, THIS PART
NORTHERN IRELAND, THIS PART HERE, WHICH IS PART OF THE
HERE, WHICH IS PART OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, AND THE REPUBLIC
UNITED KINGDOM, AND THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, WHICH IS A SEPARATE
OF IRELAND, WHICH IS A SEPARATE COUNTRY THEY THAT WILL REMAIN
COUNTRY THEY THAT WILL REMAIN PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. LAWMAKERS CREATED THE SO-CALLED
LAWMAKERS CREATED THE SO-CALLED BACKSTOP PROVISION, ENSURING
BACKSTOP PROVISION, ENSURING THERE WOULD BE NO HARD BORDER
THERE WOULD BE NO HARD BORDER BETWEEN THE IRELANDS, BUT
BETWEEN THE IRELANDS, BUT PRO-BREXIT POLITICIANS DON’T
PRO-BREXIT POLITICIANS DON’T WANT THIS TO BECOME A PERMANENT
WANT THIS TO BECOME A PERMANENT THING.
THING. IN MOST OTHER SITUATIONS, A
IN MOST OTHER SITUATIONS, A PHYSICAL BARRIER OF SOME TYPE AT
PHYSICAL BARRIER OF SOME TYPE AT BORDER CHECK POINTS WOULD BE PUT
BORDER CHECK POINTS WOULD BE PUT IN PLACE TO REGULATE THE FLOW OF
IN PLACE TO REGULATE THE FLOW OF GOOD AND PEOPLE.
GOOD AND PEOPLE. BUT IN IRELAND, THINGS ARE
BUT IN IRELAND, THINGS ARE DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF HISTORY.
DIFFERENT BECAUSE OF HISTORY. A PHYSICAL BARRIER DEFINES SOME
A PHYSICAL BARRIER DEFINES SOME OF THE MOST PAINFUL AND DEADLY
OF THE MOST PAINFUL AND DEADLY PARTS OF THE 20th CENTURY ON THE
PARTS OF THE 20th CENTURY ON THE ISLAND.
ISLAND. MANY IN NORTHERN OOIR LANE AND
MANY IN NORTHERN OOIR LANE AND THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SAY ANY
THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND SAY ANY BORDER CHECK POINTS COULD
BORDER CHECK POINTS COULD REIGNITE TENSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
REIGNITE TENSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN DORMANT SINCE THE 1998 GOOD
DORMANT SINCE THE 1998 GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT.
FRIDAY AGREEMENT. TO HEAD OFF THAT POSSIBILITY,
TO HEAD OFF THAT POSSIBILITY, THE BRITISH AND THE EUROPEAN
THE BRITISH AND THE EUROPEAN UNION NEGOTIATORS CREATED A
UNION NEGOTIATORS CREATED A BACKSTOP PROVISION.
BACKSTOP PROVISION. IT KEEPS BRITAIN IN THE EUROPEAN
IT KEEPS BRITAIN IN THE EUROPEAN CUSTOMS UNION SO THERE WOULD BE
CUSTOMS UNION SO THERE WOULD BE NO BORDER CHECKS BETWEEN
NO BORDER CHECKS BETWEEN NORTHERN IRELAND AND IRELAND,
NORTHERN IRELAND AND IRELAND, BUT BRITAIN WOULDN’T BE PART OF
BUT BRITAIN WOULDN’T BE PART OF THE LARGER EU IN TERMS OF TRADE
THE LARGER EU IN TERMS OF TRADE POLICY.
POLICY. SO THAT UNDERCUTS SOME OF THE
SO THAT UNDERCUTS SOME OF THE KEY ARGUMENTS FOR LEAVING THE
KEY ARGUMENTS FOR LEAVING THE EU.
EU. AND WHILE SOME EUROPEAN
AND WHILE SOME EUROPEAN OFFICIALS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
OFFICIALS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT ONLY NORTHERN IRELAND
ONLY NORTHERN IRELAND PARTICIPATE IN THE BACKSTOP,
PARTICIPATE IN THE BACKSTOP, BRITISH POLITICIANS HAVE
BRITISH POLITICIANS HAVE REJECTED THAT BECAUSE IT WOULD
REJECTED THAT BECAUSE IT WOULD EFFECTIVELY CREATE A BORDER
EFFECTIVELY CREATE A BORDER BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND
BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE IRISH
NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE IRISH SEA, ISOLATING NORTHERN IRELAND
SEA, ISOLATING NORTHERN IRELAND AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING IT
AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING IT CLOSER TO REUNIFICATION WITH THE
CLOSER TO REUNIFICATION WITH THE REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN IRELAND,
REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN IRELAND, WHICH IS PART OF THE EUROPEAN
WHICH IS PART OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
UNION. JOINING ME NOW FROM LONDON, NBC
JOINING ME NOW FROM LONDON, NBC NEWS CHIEF GLOBAL CORRESPONDENT
NEWS CHIEF GLOBAL CORRESPONDENT BILL NEELY.
BILL NEELY. TO TODAY’S VOTE, ANY
TO TODAY’S VOTE, ANY EXPECTATIONS HOW THIS IS GOING
EXPECTATIONS HOW THIS IS GOING TO GO?
TO GO? IS THERESA MAY FINALLY GOING TO
IS THERESA MAY FINALLY GOING TO WIN A VOTE?
WIN A VOTE? >> Reporter: I THINK THE SHORT
>> Reporter: I THINK THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO.
ANSWER IS NO. REMEMBER, JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO
REMEMBER, JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO IN JANUARY, SHE LOST A VOTE ON
IN JANUARY, SHE LOST A VOTE ON THE DEAL, EXACTLY THE SAME THING
THE DEAL, EXACTLY THE SAME THING IS GOING TO BE PUT TO THE HOUSE
IS GOING TO BE PUT TO THE HOUSE TONIGHT BY 230 VOTES.
TONIGHT BY 230 VOTES. THAT WAS THE BIGGEST DEFEAT IN A
THAT WAS THE BIGGEST DEFEAT IN A HUNDRED YEARS.
HUNDRED YEARS. I DON’T THINK SHE’LL BE DEFEATED
I DON’T THINK SHE’LL BE DEFEATED BY THAT MARGIN TONIGHT, BUT
BY THAT MARGIN TONIGHT, BUT WE’LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THREE
WE’LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THREE FIGURES.
FIGURES. IT WOULD TAKE AN ABSOLUTE
IT WOULD TAKE AN ABSOLUTE MIRACLE FOR HER TO WIN.
MIRACLE FOR HER TO WIN. THE ARITHMETIC SIMPLY DOESN’T
THE ARITHMETIC SIMPLY DOESN’T ADD UP.
ADD UP. IT WAS ALL LOOKING QUITE GOOD
IT WAS ALL LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR HER THIS MORNING.
FOR HER THIS MORNING. SHE CAME BACK FROM STRAUSBURG,
SHE CAME BACK FROM STRAUSBURG, HAVING NEGOTIATED LATE LAST
HAVING NEGOTIATED LATE LAST NIGHT WITH EUROPEAN LEADERS, AND
NIGHT WITH EUROPEAN LEADERS, AND HAD GOT TO WHAT SEEMED TO BE A
HAD GOT TO WHAT SEEMED TO BE A CONCESSION, SOME KIND OF LEGAL
CONCESSION, SOME KIND OF LEGAL ASSURANCE THAT THE UK WOULDN’T
ASSURANCE THAT THE UK WOULDN’T BE TRAPPED FOREVER IN THIS
BE TRAPPED FOREVER IN THIS ARRANGEMENT, THE BACKSTOP A
ARRANGEMENT, THE BACKSTOP A CUSTOMS UNION.
CUSTOMS UNION. BUT CRUCIALLY, HER ATTORNEY
BUT CRUCIALLY, HER ATTORNEY GENERAL SAID MIDMORNING THAT
GENERAL SAID MIDMORNING THAT WHILE THE ASSURANCES HAD REDUCED
WHILE THE ASSURANCES HAD REDUCED THE RISK THAT THE UK WOULD BE
THE RISK THAT THE UK WOULD BE PERMANENTLY TRAPPED IN A CUSTOMS
PERMANENTLY TRAPPED IN A CUSTOMS UNION, IT HADN’T GOT RID OF THE
UNION, IT HADN’T GOT RID OF THE RISK ALTOGETHER.
RISK ALTOGETHER. SO SUDDENLY, THE FANCY WRAPPING
SO SUDDENLY, THE FANCY WRAPPING PAPER AND THE NEW RED RIBBON
PAPER AND THE NEW RED RIBBON THAT SHE PUT AROUND THE DEAL
THAT SHE PUT AROUND THE DEAL SIMPLY FELL AWAY.
SIMPLY FELL AWAY. AS A RESULT, A FEW HOURS AGO HER
AS A RESULT, A FEW HOURS AGO HER MAIN POLITICAL ALLIES IN
MAIN POLITICAL ALLIES IN PARLIAMENT, THE NORTHERN IRELAND
PARLIAMENT, THE NORTHERN IRELAND UNIONS, SAID THEY WOULDN’T
UNIONS, SAID THEY WOULDN’T SUPPORT THE DEAL, AND MANY
SUPPORT THE DEAL, AND MANY CONSERVATIVES WITHIN THE
CONSERVATIVES WITHIN THE HARDLINE BREXITEER BLOC WILL
HARDLINE BREXITEER BLOC WILL EITHER VOTE AGAINST OR ABSTAIN.
EITHER VOTE AGAINST OR ABSTAIN. I THINK PROBABLY, AND I’M NOT
I THINK PROBABLY, AND I’M NOT ONE TO PREDICT ANYTHING CAN
ONE TO PREDICT ANYTHING CAN GREAT CERTAINTY, BUT PROBABLY
GREAT CERTAINTY, BUT PROBABLY THIS -- THE VOTE IS LOST AND THE
THIS -- THE VOTE IS LOST AND THE DEAL, AS IT STANDS AT THE
DEAL, AS IT STANDS AT THE MOMENT, IS DEAD.
MOMENT, IS DEAD. THE BIG QUESTION IS, WELL, TWO,
THE BIG QUESTION IS, WELL, TWO, NUMBER ONE, IS THERESA MAY
NUMBER ONE, IS THERESA MAY POLITICALLY DEAD?
POLITICALLY DEAD? NUMBER TWO, WHAT ON EARTH
NUMBER TWO, WHAT ON EARTH HAPPENS NEXT?
HAPPENS NEXT? >> WE’RE CLOSE TO 30 YEARS AWAY
>> WE’RE CLOSE TO 30 YEARS AWAY FROM THE WORST OF THE VIOLENCE
FROM THE WORST OF THE VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND.
IN NORTHERN IRELAND. I’VE TRIED TO EXPLAIN AS BEST I
I’VE TRIED TO EXPLAIN AS BEST I CAN.
CAN. HOW SERIOUS IS IT AN ISSUE IF
HOW SERIOUS IS IT AN ISSUE IF THEY DON’T WORK THIS OUT AND
THEY DON’T WORK THIS OUT AND THERE IS A BORDER BETWEEN
THERE IS A BORDER BETWEEN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE
NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND?
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND? >> Reporter: WELL, OPINION IN
>> Reporter: WELL, OPINION IN NORTHERN IRELAND, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN IRELAND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER, ON BOTH SIDES
ALONG THE BORDER, ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER, IS ABSOLUTELY
OF THE BORDER, IS ABSOLUTELY CLEAR.
CLEAR. THEY DO NOT WANT WHAT’S CALLED A
THEY DO NOT WANT WHAT’S CALLED A HARD BORDER.
HARD BORDER. WHAT THAT MEANS IS CUSTOMS POSTS
WHAT THAT MEANS IS CUSTOMS POSTS POSSIBLY PROTECTED BY POLICE
POSSIBLY PROTECTED BY POLICE CHECK POINTS, IF IT CAME TO IT,
CHECK POINTS, IF IT CAME TO IT, BY ARMY CHECK POINTS.
BY ARMY CHECK POINTS. THERE ARE, YOU KNOW,
THERE ARE, YOU KNOW, RECONSTRUCTED TERRORISTS OUT
RECONSTRUCTED TERRORISTS OUT THERE WHO WOULD ONLY BE TOO
THERE WHO WOULD ONLY BE TOO HAPPY TO ATTACK THOSE POSTS.
HAPPY TO ATTACK THOSE POSTS. AND YOU COULD HAVE THE BEGINNING
AND YOU COULD HAVE THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR AGAIN, THE TROUBLES.
OF THE WAR AGAIN, THE TROUBLES. AND NOBODY, NOBODY ON THE ISLAND
AND NOBODY, NOBODY ON THE ISLAND OF IRELAND WANTS THAT.
OF IRELAND WANTS THAT. IRONICALLY, A LOT OF PEOPLE IN
IRONICALLY, A LOT OF PEOPLE IN NORTHERN IRELAND ARE NOT
NORTHERN IRELAND ARE NOT REPRESENTED BY THE D.U.P., AND
REPRESENTED BY THE D.U.P., AND THEY WOULD BE PERFECTLY HAPPY TO
THEY WOULD BE PERFECTLY HAPPY TO SEE THE UK REMAIN.
SEE THE UK REMAIN. IN FACT, THEY VOTED FOR THE UK
IN FACT, THEY VOTED FOR THE UK TO REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION,
TO REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MARCH 29th IS
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MARCH 29th IS COMING FAST.
COMING FAST. SO JUST VERY BRIEFLY, THE NEXT
SO JUST VERY BRIEFLY, THE NEXT STEP, TOMORROW THEY’LL VOTE YES
STEP, TOMORROW THEY’LL VOTE YES OR NO ON NO DEAL.
OR NO ON NO DEAL. IN OTHER WORDS, WILL THE UK
IN OTHER WORDS, WILL THE UK CRASH OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?
CRASH OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION? THEN ON THURSDAY, THEY WILL VOTE
