>>> THE YEAR 2019 STILL MAY, AND
THE IMF WAS IN BOTH OF THOSE, I
THINK, STILL MAY BE ONE OF THE
FASTEST GLOBAL GROWTH YEARS ON
RECORD, AND AMERICA WHICH IS A
BIG PART OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY,
IS GROWING AT 3% PLUS, AND IT'S
JUST POWERING THROUGH.
PEOPLE COMING BACK TO THE WORK
FORCE, WAGES ARE GOING UP,
COMPANIES ARE SPENDING MORE ON
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CONFIDENCE
IS VERY HIGH.
NEIL: ALL RIGHT.
THAT'S JAMIE DIMON OF JPMORGAN.
REMEMBER THAT'S THE SAME COMPANY
THAT WARREN BUFFETT'S BERKSHIRE
HATHAWAY HAS A $4 MILLION
INVESTMENT AND HE ADDED TO THAT.
LET'S GET THE READ FROM MARKET
WATCHER JIM LECAMP, A SIMILARLY
FINANCIAL ASTUTE BRAIN.
YOU'RE LOOKING AT THIS AND
HEARING JAMIE DIMON, ONE OF THE
MOST RESPECTED FINANCIAL CEOs ON
THE PLANET SAYING I DON'T KNOW,
I HEARD ALL THIS TALK ABOUT
SLOWDOWN BUT I DON'T SEE IT
HAPPENING NEXT YEAR.
DO YOU AGREE?
>> WELL, HE'S CLEARLY NOT
LOOKING AT THE SAME DATA I'M
LOOKING AT.
I HOPE HE'S RIGHT AND I'M WRONG,
BUT I DON'T THINK SO.
BECAUSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT GERMAN
GROWTH IN THE LAST GDP QUARTER,
YOU LOOK AT ITALIAN, JAPAN, ALL
THE GROWTH, THE GDP PRICE WE ARE
GETTING AROUND THE WORLD IS
ALREADY SHOWING DECELERATION.
IF YOU LOOK AT ANY OF THE GROWTH
RATES FOR THE G-7 COUNTRIES, THE
DEVELOPED MARKETS, THE EMERGING
MARKETS, THEY ARE ALL PROJECTING
AT A LITTLE LESS RATE NEXT YEAR
THAN THIS YEAR.
YOU WILL STILL HAVE GROWTH BUT
YOU ARE SEEING DECELERATION
EVERYWHERE.
NOT TO MENTION THE SOFT DATA
WHICH ARE ALL THE SURVEYS,
PURCHASING MANAGER SURVEYS,
MANUFACTURING SURVEYS AND THE
HARD DATA, BOTH OF THEM ARE
SHOWING DECELERATION AT AN
INCREASING RATE.
SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT HE'S
LOOKING AT.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING GROWTH.
I'M STILL SEEING GROWTH NOT ONLY
HERE BUT AROUND THE WORLD, BUT
WE'RE NOT ACCELERATING.
WE ARE DECELERATING AND THERE'S
REAL CONCERNS IF WE DON'T GET
THESE TRADE WARS TAKEN CARE OF,
THAT THIS DECELERATION WILL
ACCELERATE.
NEIL: I LIKE THE WAY YOU EXPLAIN
IT.
DECELERATION WILL ACCELERATE.
THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO THAT.
I'M WONDERING HOW IMPORTANT IT
IS, THEN, TO SCORE A DEAL OR AT
LEAST THE CONSTRUCT OF A DEAL
WITH CHINA, TO YOU.
>> IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT.
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, PARTICULARLY
WITH A LOT OF THE TECHNOLOGY
COMPANIES, IS THAT SO MANY
IMPORTS WE HAVE DONE IN THIS
COUNTRY HAVE BEEN FRONT-LOADING
TO AVOID THE TARIFFS.
WHAT THAT DOES IS IT LEAVES A
VOID IN THE FUTURE, AND IF WE
CONTINUE TO SEE THESE TARIFFS
BUILD UP, THESE TALKS BUILD UP,
HOPEFULLY THEY ARE GETTING
BETTER, I HOPE THEY WILL GET
SOLVED BUT THERE'S SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WE HEAR FROM THESE
BUSINESS OWNERS.
JAMIE DIMON TALKED ABOUT CORE
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES.
LOT OF THAT WAS IN THE OIL
PATCH.
I DON'T KNOW IF YOU HAVE SEEN
OIL PRICES LATELY.
IT DOESN'T SUGGEST THAT THEY ARE
GOING TO RAMP UP SPENDING FROM
HERE.
SO I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF
ISSUES THAT ARE NOT REALLY
SHOWING UP IN THE DATA YET BUT
WILL SHOW UP, AND THE
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THESE TRADE
TALKS WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS
WORSE.
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME OF IT
SHOW UP IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
IT'S NOT TERRIBLE YET, BUT IT
WILL ONLY GET WORSE IF WE DON'T
GET RESOLUTION.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, REAL QUICKLY ON
OIL, AND THE COLLAPSE IN PRICES,
I WAS LOOKING AT THE HALF FULL
GLASS, MAYBE NAIVELY, THAT THAT
FREES UP MORE MONEY FOR
CONSUMERS, FOR SHOPPERS
PARTICULARLY THIS HOLIDAY
SEASON.
THAT'S A NET-NET GOOD.
I QUITE UNDERSTAND THE IMPACT
IT'S GOING TO HAVE ON THE
INDUSTRY EVEN HERE IN THIS
COUNTRY, BUT FOR MOST OTHERS,
SAVING THAT MONEY AT THE PUMP
AND OIL PRICES AND THE REST,
THAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF
AN ECONOMIC BOOM OR AM I NAIVE?
>> NO, I THINK YOU HAVE IT
RIGHT, NEIL.
LOOK, IT'S A MUDDIER PICTURE
WITH OIL THAN IT USED TO BE
BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SOURCE OF
OUR JOB CREATION IN THIS
COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY ON THE
MINING SECTOR, BIG SOURCE OF OUR
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES.
ON THE OTHER HAND, NET-NET, IT
DOES PUT MORE MONEY IN THE
POCKETS, IT DOES MAKE INPUT
PRICES CHEAPER.
IT'S A POSITIVE FOR THE ECONOMY.
SO THE OTHER THING I WANT TO
POINT OUT HERE, I DON'T WANT TO
SOUND TOO NEGATIVE, BECAUSE WE
HAVE NEVER GONE INTO A RECESSION
WITH CONSUMPTION ON THE INCREASE
AND CONSUMPTION IS ON THE
INCREASE IN THE UNITED STATES.
WE HAVE NEVER GONE INTO A
RECESSION WITH LEADING
INDICATORS POINTING NORTH.
THEY ARE NOT POINTING AS NORTH
AS THEY WERE, BUT THEY ARE STILL
POINTING NORTH.
I'M NOT SUGGESTING WE ARE GOING
INTO A RECESSION OR ANYTHING
LIKE THIS.
I'M SAYING THE NOTION, THAT NEXT
YEAR IS GOING TO ACCELERATE
ABOVE AND BEYOND THIS YEAR, IT'S
NOT SHOWING UP IN THE DATA.
IN FACT, QUITE THE OPPOSITE.
NEIL: JIM, THANK YOU.
IF I DON'T TALK TO YOU, HAVE A
WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING, MY
