- Greetings, Pokefans!
Michael here, and
a few months ago,
I made a video talking about
what the rarest Pokemon
in every main series
Pokemon game was.
That video did not include
Pokemon Sword and Shield,
because, obviously,
it wasn't out yet.
But now that the games
have been released,
I figured, they
should be covered.
However, determining the rarest
Pokemon in Sword and Shield
is, well, it's pretty
freaking complicated.
In the older games, it was
pretty easy to figure out.
You got Pokemon by
random grass encounters,
and that was basically it,
since the other encounter
and obtaining methods
of breeding or static
encounters or gift Pokemon
don't really have a rarity
associated with them.
So figuring out
the rarest Pokemon
was as simple as figuring
out which Pokemon
had the lowest
encounter percentage
in the fewest number of places.
But Sword and Shield make things
a heck of a lot
more complicated.
You've got random
grass encounters,
you've got overworld encounters,
you've got overworld
strong spawns,
you've got Max Raid battles.
The encounter tables
change every day
depending on the weather.
It's a mess!
However, despite the complexity,
I think I've succeeded in
coming up with a numerical way
to figure out what
the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield are.
It's not gonna be perfect,
and it's gonna get
a little bit mathy,
and I've probably made some
mistakes at some point,
but I tried my
best to figure out
what the rarest Sword
and Shield Pokemon are,
in the most numerical and
objective way possible.
Before I get started, there are
going to be some exclusions,
just like there was
in the first video.
One of those is Pokemon
that have no chance
associated with obtaining them.
So, static encounter legendaries
or gift starters or fossils.
You do a certain thing, and
then you get the Pokemon.
There's no randomness involved,
other than trying to hunt
for the specific type
of fossil that you want,
but we don't have the
percentages for those,
and you're hunting for
the item, not the Pokemon.
I will also be
excluding shiny Pokemon,
because obviously the
shiny version of a Pokemon
is more rare than
the normal version,
so it would be redundant to
just say the shiny version
of this particular species.
I'm just focusing
on the plain old regular
species in this video.
Speaking of species,
individual members of
an evolutionary line
are different species,
so they will be counted
totally separately.
Also, I'm gonna be
figuring this out
as if no exploits were possible.
So in other words, I'm
gonna pretend as if
changing your Switch
clock to impact
the weather in the
game is not impossible.
It'd get way too messy
to factor that in.
All right, I think that
covers all of the exclusions,
so before we get started,
be sure sure to
subscribe to my channel.
You know, in case you haven't,
I'm almost at a million subs,
so it'd be cool
to hit that soon.
But now we can start
with what exactly
are the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield,
and I say "what are"
rather than "what is"
because it's not really
easy to determine
the definitive single
Pokemon that's the rarest,
because of the layer
of complexity added
due to Max Raid battles.
Now, we do have data for
the exact encounter rates
for Max Raid battles.
If you use a wishing
piece on a particular den,
we can know the exact chance
of a certain Pokemon
showing up, to a degree.
Assuming we know whether
the den has spawned
a common red beam or
a rare purple beam,
and we also know the star level
of the raid that shows up,
we know the exact odds of a
certain species showing up.
But that's it.
We don't know the chance
of the beam being
red versus purple,
and we also don't the
individual chances
for what star level
of raid will show up,
which is also impacted by how
far into the game you are.
So there's a lot we don't know.
Additionally, we don't know
the odds of any particular den
spawning a raid on its own
without a wishing piece,
and there's the added layer
of complexity of being able
to get Pokemon from raids
from other people's games
that you normally
wouldn't be able to.
I have caught Shield
exclusives in my Sword version
because I joined someone's
raid who was playing Shield.
Max Raids clearly make rarity
calculations too complicated
so I'm gonna keep 'em separate.
I'm gonna figure out the
rarest Max Raid boss Pokemon
assuming you stand a den and
throw a wishing piece in.
That's it, they're
their own thing,
it would be too
messy to combine them
with all the other stuff.
Without a doubt, the rarest
Max Raid boss Pokemon
are some of the
Gigantamax Pokemon.
And I say "some" for a reason
that I'll explain
in a little bit.
But before I dive in,
there's another exclusion
that I have to go over
that I didn't mention earlier,
those being event dens.
If you didn't know, there is
currently an ongoing event
in the wild area that is
dramatically boosting the
spawn rate for certain Pokemon,
including several
Gigantamax Pokemon.
Those are Gigantamax
Butterfree in both games,
Gigantamax Drednaw and
Sandaconda in Sword,
and Gigantamax Corviknight
and Centiskorch in Shield.
These spawns are boosted
by the use of an event den
that has its own
encounter table,
and this event den can
spawn at any location
in the entire wild area.
This makes these event den
Pokemon so much easier to find
than they would be otherwise.
However, when the event
is over in January 2020,
these Gigantamax forms
are going to become
super freaking rare,
like so many of the
other Gigantamax forms.
But, in exchange, some
other Gigantamax Pokemon
will probably take their place,
and become far easier to find.
Because of the temporary
nature of the events,
I didn't think it made
sense to include event dens
in my discussion of what
the rarest Max Raid
boss Pokemon is,
because something
that's rare right now
may not be in a couple months.
And something that is
not rare right now,
will be substantially
rarer in a couple months.
The events make things
too complicated,
so we're gonna act as if
the events don't exist.
So the rarest Max
Raid boss Pokemon
are, as I said some of
the Gigantamax forms.
And more specifically, it's
the ones that are only found
in one den, and only
in five star raids,
and only have a 5%
chance of showing up.
And that 5% is if the
raid is determined
to be a five star raid,
of all the possible
five star Pokemon,
there's only a 5% chance of
it being the Gigantamax form.
As I mentioned earlier,
we don't have the exact data
for what the chances are
for a rare purple
beam to show up,
since all Gigantamax
forms outside of events
only show up in purple beams,
and we don't have
the percentage chance
for what the different
star levels will be
any time a particular
raid is generated.
But we do know that they're
extremely freaking rare!
And you basically only see
the rare Gigantamax forms
if someone's doing the exploit.
The Gigantamax
Pokemon that are found
under this extremely
rare criteria
differ depending on what
version you're playing.
In Sword, they are
Charizard, Machamp, Garbodor,
Corviknight, Drednaw, Coalossal,
Centiskorch, Hatterene,
Copperajah, and Duraludon.
In Shield, the list is the same,
except replace Machamp
and Coalossal with
Gengar and Lapras.
The other Gigantamax forms
that are currently available
are certainly very rare,
but they can be found
in more than one den
or at more than one star level.
So that covers the rarest
Max Raid boss Pokemon,
but now that I
have covered that,
from here on out, I'm
not taking into account
Max Raid battles at all.
As I said, they're
super complicated,
so adding that when
figuring out the rarity
of all the other Pokemon,
it's just gonna be too much.
So Max Raid battles,
we're done discussing.
However, there's another
method of obtaining Pokemon
that's not as complicated
as Max Raid battles,
but still kinda weird.
But before we dive into that,
I want to let guys you know
that I am doing a Black
Friday/Cyber Monday sale
on my merch store!
Several old limited designs
are back and available,
also you can get 10%
off the entire store
if you use code
GRAPPLOCT at checkout.
My Patrons actually get an
even better discount code,
so if you're a Patron,
check your Patreon feed.
This sale will only last
until the end of the day
on Tuesday, December 3rd,
so if you want one of
these limited designs,
and you want to save
some money on some merch,
go get it right now,
link's in the description.
Anyways back to what
I was discussing.
The other kinda weird
method are strong spawns.
You may have noticed
in the wild area
that there are several
Pokemon wandering around
separate from the
other wild Pokemon.
They're not in the grass,
and they don't despawn
unless you encounter them
or wait until the next day.
These are widely known
as strong spawn Pokemon,
and they have much higher levels
than the other wild
Pokemon you find.
We have the data on which
strong spawn Pokemon
can show up in which
parts of the wild area,
and under which
types of weather.
However, we don't have the
data on the percentage chance
of each certain spawn point
generating a certain
species of Pokemon.
We know Milotic's a heck of
a lot rarer than Gyarados,
but we don't know
how much rarer.
Therefore, I had to come
up with another method
of determining what the rarest
strong spawn Pokemon were.
First, I looked at a list of
all the strong spawn Pokemon
and eliminated all of the
ones that do not show up
anywhere else in the wild area
as a strong spawn specifically.
Then, I looked to see if
that particular species
can show up anywhere
else in the Galar region
via any other method
other than Max Raids.
If they can be
found anywhere else,
they are again, eliminated.
Then of the remaining Pokemon,
I looked to see how
many different weathers
they can show up under.
As a result of all
this elimination,
the rarest strong spawn Pokemon
are those that only show up
in one area of the wild area,
show up nowhere
else in the game,
and only show up during
one weather pattern.
Those Pokemon are Clefable,
Bellossom, Kirlia,
Vespiquen, Mime Jr., Lucario,
Weavile, Chandelure, Aegislash,
and all the Eeveelutions
except Glaceon,
since Glaceon can show up
in both snow and snowstorm.
If you are exploring
the wild area
and see one of these
Pokemon running around,
you should catch it,
because it's not gonna
be there tomorrow.
So now I've figured out the
rarest Max Raid boss Pokemon,
and the rarest
strong spawn Pokemon,
totally separate from the
other encounter methods,
'cause they kinda
needed to be separate.
So now all that's
left is determining
the rarest Pokemon in the more
traditional encounter sense,
of both overworld and random
grass encounters, and fishing.
But these I can
combine together,
it's just kinda complicated.
There are two main factors
that cause this complication.
The first is the difference
between overworld encounters
and random grass
encounters/fishing.
Overworld encounters, you can
see multiple Pokemon at once,
so the effective encounter rate
is substantially higher,
because you don't
have to enter a battle
and wait for it start to
see what the Pokemon is.
Whereas for random
grass and fishing,
you have to find an
exclamation point,
and run into and
then see what it is.
If it's not what you
want, run, try again.
It's much slower, so the
encounter rates mean more.
And the second
factor is weather.
Weather in the wild area
dramatically impacts
the spawns that will
show up in any given area
on any given day.
And it makes Pokemon more rare
than they would be otherwise.
For example, a Pokemon may
have a worst encounter rate
on a route, but you
can find it any time.
If a Pokemon has a
better encounter rate
in the wild area,
but it only shows up on one of
the nine different weathers,
and weather only
changes once per day,
if you don't change
your Switch clock,
it could take you
a really long time
to find that Pokemon.
I have taken all these
factors into account
and created a metic that I
am calling the rarity score.
Which I hope will accurately
give a good numerical indication
of how truly rare a Pokemon is
by considering the
difference between overworld
and random encounters,
and also the impacts
of the weather.
To figure out a
Pokemon's rarity score,
you first look at
its encounter rate,
for example, 2%,
5%, 50%, whatever.
If that encounter rate is done
via the random grass
encounters or fishing,
it stays the same.
However, if that rate is
for an overworld encounter,
the effective rate gets doubled,
because as I said, if you can
see multiple Pokemon at once,
you're gonna find
what you need faster.
The two times multiplier
is admittedly subjective,
but I figure just a
simple multiplier of two
is what made the most sense.
Then you take into account
how many different
places it is found.
For example, if it's found
on one route at any time,
that's a location number of one.
However, if it's only found
under a specific
type of weather,
that changes once per day,
that's an effective
location number of 1/9,
since there are nine
different weathers.
Since weather seems to
be determined randomly,
you have a one
out of nine chance
to get a particular weather
on a particular day.
So therefore, if it's only
found under one weather,
you're only gonna find
that Pokemon on average,
one out of every nine days.
So that definitely has
to be taken into account
and make the Pokemon
rarer than it would be
if it could be found
on a route at any time.
So you take the Pokemon's
effective encounter rate
and multiply it by the
effective number of locations.
If the rates are different
in different locations,
then you multiply that rate
by that location number
and then add them all together.
The math works out the same.
I know I got a little
heavy on the math there,
so I'll go into an example
that will hopefully
clarify this for you.
So I'll discuss Stonjourner,
a Pokemon widely considered
to be extremely rare
in Pokemon Sword.
Stonjourner is found on Route 10
with a 2% random grass
encounter at any time.
It is also found at
the Lake of Outrage,
but only under intense sun
at a random grass rate of 2%,
and under sandstorm at a
random grass rate of 5%.
So that works out
to two times one,
plus two times 1/9,
plus five times 1/9,
resulting in a rarity
score of 2.777.
So now that you
hopefully understand
how a rarity score works,
let's go through several Pokemon
that are considered widely
to be some of the
rarest in these games,
and figure out exactly
how rare they are.
Eiscue, the shield
counterpart for Stonjourner,
unsurprisingly has an
identical rarity score.
It is also found only via
random grass encounters
with a 2% rate on Route 10,
a 2% rate in snow at
the Lake of Outrage,
and a 5% rate in a snowstorm
at the Lake of Outrage.
The formula ends up
exactly the same,
so it also has a
rarity score of 2.777.
Feebas is a pretty rare Pokemon,
only being found by
fishing on Route two
with a 1% encounter rate.
Fishing is not overworld,
so the 1% is unchanged,
but it can be found during
any weather on any day,
so it's a full location number.
Therefore 1% times one location
means its rarity score is one.
Sizzlipede is in a near
identical situation.
Ignoring the guaranteed
encounter in the Motostoke gym,
it's only a 1% encounter
rate on Route 3,
randomly in the grass.
This also makes a
rarity score of one.
Another Pokemon that's
pretty rare is Rotom.
It is only found at
the Lake of Outrage
when it is either raining
or thunderstorming.
However it's an
overworld encounter,
so based on my formula,
its 2% encounter rate
gets doubled to an effective
encounter rate of 4%.
Four times 2/9 gives a
rarity score of 0.888.
Dreepy, the base form
pseudo-legendary for
generation eight,
is also quite rare, actually
being substantially rarer
than its evolution Drakloak.
It is only found via
random grass encounters,
again at the Lake of Outrage,
under three different weathers.
In rain and thunderstorms,
it's found at a 2% rate,
and when it's overcast,
it's found a 1% rate.
This creates a formula
of two times 2/9,
plus one times 1/9, giving
a rarity score of 0.555.
Hitmontop is pretty rare too,
actually being the rarest
of the Hitmon line.
It's an overworld encounter
in the Lake of Outrage,
so its 2% rate
gets bumped to 4%.
However it's only
during Overcast weather,
meaning its rarity
score is only 0.444.
Togekiss is in a
similar situation.
It's only in the Dusty
Bowl in foggy weather
with a 2% overworld
encounter rate.
It's a pre-set flying encounter
which is Braviary or
Mandibuzz 98% of the time,
but since you can still
see it in the overworld,
it gets the rate bumped to 4%,
meaning another
0.444 rarity score.
Mimikyu is also quite rare.
Excluding its potential
as a strong spawn,
which is what I've been
doing this whole time,
it can only be found
in Giants Mirror
under foggy weather.
It's a random grass encounter
with only a 3% encounter rate.
Three times 1/9 gives a
rarity score of 0.333.
But none of these are
the rarest Pokemon.
There are actually eight Pokemon
with even lower rarity scores.
In Sword, the first is Flygon.
It can spawn as a strong
spawn in the Dusty Bowl,
but in the Lake of Outrage, it
only has a 1% encounter rate
and only during
Intense Sunlight.
It is an overworld
encounter though,
so the effective rate
gets bumped to 2%.
That multiplied by 1/9th
gives a rarity score of 0.222.
In Shield, Haxorus is in the
same situation as Flygon.
It can be found in other
places as a strong spawn,
but in the Lake of Outrage,
it only shows up
during thunderstorms
with a 1% overworld
encounter rate,
giving it another
0.222 rarity score.
It should be noted
that Flygon and Haxorus
are not version exclusives,
they just have substantially
different rarities,
depending on the games.
So they're pseudo-version
exclusives.
However, there are
six other Pokemon
that also have rarity
scores of 0.222,
that I consider to be
the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield,
not Flygon or Haxorus.
The reason for that is
that these other Pokemon
can't be found anywhere else,
whereas Haxorus and Flygon
can be found as strong spawns.
I know I said I was
excluding strong spawns,
which I have been
doing this whole time,
except when you have a tie,
and some of them can be
found elsewhere some way,
excluding Max Raid
battles, and some cannot,
that's the only way.
The one where it's the only way,
those ones are rarer.
The true rarest Pokemon
are Deino, Hakamo-o,
and Turtonator in Sword,
and in Shield, they are
Goomy, Sliggoo, and Drampa.
All six of these Pokemon
can only be found
at the Lake of Outrage doing
random grass encounters
with a measly 2% encounter rate
under one weather each,
giving them all rarity
scores of 0.222.
Deino and Goomy are only
found when it's raining.
Turtonator is only found
in the intense sunlight,
and Hakamo-o,
Sliggoo, and Drampa
are only found in thunderstorms.
All of these Pokemon
can only be found
at the Lake of Outrage,
only doing random
grass encounters,
with only a 2% rate, and
only under one weather,
and they are nowhere
else in the game
other than Max Raid battles.
These are definitively
the rarest Pokemon
in Sword and Shield,
at least in regards to the
typical encounter method.
So the moral of this story is
if you have a
dragon type Pokemon,
it's probably rare
and you should breed
it for your friends.
Thank you so much for watching
and an extra special
thanks to my Patrons
for supporting me
over on Patreon
giving me some income
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If you want to help
support the channel
make my income more
stable, (laughs)
link's in the description.
Also, don't forget to
check out the merch sale
before that goes away,
and if you wanna check out
my Pokemon Sword Let's Play
that's been ongoing, you
can click right here.
All right, that's
all I have for now!
So 'til next time Pokefans,
gotta catch them all!
