Hey, David.
I'm looking at the electoral map, and it just
doesn't seem like Trump can win.
Is it even possible for Trump to get 270 electoral
votes at this point?
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
Do not for a fraction of a second think that
there is not a path to victory for Donald
Trump.
There is a path to victory for Donald Trump.
Now, I understand the thought process.
If you start with the 2016 map and you look
at, wow, Trump lost the popular vote by three
million.
And it was really one of the narrowest scenarios
where you could lose nationally by three million
and win electorally.
And the reason Trump won was because of three
states, Michigan.
Trump won by like zero point two percent.
It was a ten thousand vote margin in Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, Trump won by under one point.
And in Wisconsin, Trump won by under one point.
It was only about 23000 votes, 22000 something
votes in Wisconsin.
So when you look at that and you say, well,
OK.
That's how it was in 2016.
Trump's losing Wisconsin.
He's losing Michigan.
He's losing Arizona, which he won.
He's losing Florida, which he won.
He's only winning by one in Georgia.
He's only winning by two in Texas.
North Carolina is basically a tie.
Ohio is basically a tie.
Iowa's barely in the Trump camp.
Right.
So when you look at it, you just say Biden's
going to flip something.
Biden's going to flip something.
And then immediately, the map becomes very
difficult for Donald Trump.
Do not fall into that line of thinking.
It is very much the case that Donald Trump
has a small margin of error.
He can't afford to lose very much and still
win.
And I think it's important to remember how
traumatized we are by 2016.
And that may make some of us find paths for
Trump in order to not get a false sense of
security.
You don't need to concoct anything outrageous.
What you have to remember is Donald Trump
is a desperate, cornered animal.
We learned earlier this week that Don Junior
reportedly fears that if Trump loses, they
all get prosecuted and indicted.
So Trump is fighting not only for his political
life here, but he's fighting at least has
done far, as Don Junior thinks, to keep himself
out of court potentially for the next however
many years.
But he lives, quite frankly, I don't necessarily
believe that.
But if you believe Don Junior believes it,
they are acting out of desperation.
So they're going to do post office.
They're going to do voter suppression.
They're going to allow foreign meddling, which
they've never tried to stop bill after bill
after bill over the last four years.
Mitch McConnell does nothing with it.
Trump never talks about, you know, OK, you
get it.
Purging voter rolls.
They're going to do all of it.
So I get it.
You look at the map from 2016 and you go,
well, if you just flip Florida, I mean, it's
already looking bad for Trump.
If you just flip Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But I get it.
Do not.
We don't need to pretend that Trump is winning
by a lot right now.
We just need to understand that you could,
again, have Joe Biden win.
Maybe Biden wins instead of by three million
votes, by four million votes.
But that extra million comes in blue states.
And Trump still pulls off an electoral victory.
That's the way we have to be thinking.
And yes, Donald Trump very much can achieve
270 electoral votes
