>> ALL OF A SUDDEN HILLARY
CLINTON IS BEHIND.
THAT IS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
WASHINGTON POST/ABC POLL, IT HAS
DONALD TRUMP AT 46 AND HILLARY
CLINTON AT 44.
THAT THERE HAS
BEEN A SLATE OF POLLS, ANOTHER
POLL HAD HER LOSING BUT AT THE
TIME EVERYBODY SCREAMED, DON'T
BE RIDICULOUS, DON'T PANIC.
I
WILL GET TO THAT KIND OF TALK IN
A SECOND, THAT I WANT TO GIVE
YOU CONTEXT BECAUSE THAT IS NOT
THE ONLY POLL.
IN THIS ONE SHE
IS LEADING BY A LITTLE BIT, THIS
IS THE NBC NEWS/WALL STREET
JOURNAL POLL, BOTH OF THOSE
POLLS, THE ONE SHOWING TRUMP UP
AND THE ONE SHOWING HILLARY UP,
I WAS IN THE MARGIN OF ERROR,
WHICH LEADS YOU TO BELIEVE THIS
IS A STATISTICAL TIE.
LET'S LOOK
AT THE TREND --
>>OOPS, SHE NO LONGER DOES --
>> BRILLIANT IDEA BY THE
DEMOCRATS TO NOMINATE A
HISTORICALLY UNPOPULAR
CANDIDATE.
WELL PLAYED.
WE'LL
GET TO THAT IN A SECOND TOO --
>> 
THE WASHINGTON POST HAD IT AT
-16 FOR HILLARY, HERE SHE IS
-20.
THAT IS AN UPTICK FROM HER
-24 LAST MONTH.
WE'RE MAKING
PROGRESS.
ALSO --
>> THAT IS 
A VAST IMPROVEMENT
FROM HIS -41 IN APRIL.
AS
UNPOPULAR AS HE IS, HE IS
GAINING.
THEN AGAIN, AS ALWAYS,
AT THE VERY END OF THE ARTICLE
NBC NEWS SAYS --
>> 
SHE IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF
ERROR, BERNIE LEADS HIM BY 18
POINTS.
I WONDER WHO WOULD DO
BETTER AGAINST TRUMP?
SO YOU
HAVE THESE POLLS, BUT THE
MAINSTREAM MEDIA CAN'T HAVE IT.
SO THE WASHINGTON POST PUTS UP A
HEADLINE OF HOW THEY BOTH HAVE
NEGATIVE RATINGS.
THEY DON'T SAY
DONALD TRUMP HAS CLOSED NEEDS.
NPR GOES FURTHER.
I HAVE SEEN A
COUPLE OF THESE WORDS IN THE
ARTICLE BUT THEN I TRIED TO
COMPILE MY LIST.
I THOUGHT, WHAT
WILL BE IN THIS ARTICLE ABOUT
HILLARY'S TURBO POLL NUMBERS
THAT BANK I THOUGHT THEY WILL
SAY HYPERVENTILATION, CALLED
DOWN, DON'T PANIC, THIS IS A
SNAPSHOT -- THE REASON I SAY ALL
THIS IS BECAUSE WHEN THE FIRST
POLLS STARTED SHOWING THEY WERE
TIRED, THIS IS VERBATIM WHAT
ABOUT A DOZEN ARTICLES FROM THE
MAINSTREAM PRESS ALL SET. AND BY
THE WAY, I WROTE ONE OTHER THING
DOWN -- THEY WILL BLAME BERNIE.
SO LET'S FIND OUT IF NPR DID
THAT.
AND THIS IS THE SAME NPR
WHO RECENTLY ADMITTED WE
SHOULDN'T HAVE SAID THAT BERNIE
SUPPORTERS IN NEVADA WERE
VIOLENT BECAUSE THEY WEREN'T.
OOPS.
HERE IS THE HEADLINE FOR
NPR --
>>OF COURSE.
DON'T
HYPERVENTILATE, TAKE A DEEP
BREATH.
DON'T WORRY, EVERYBODY.
THE ESTABLISHMENT WILL BE GREAT,
HILLARY WILL WIN AND EVERYTHING
WILL BE FANTASTIC.
THEN THEY GO
ON TO EXPLAIN --
>>DING, DING.
HERE WE GO.
CONTINUING --
>> THEN THEY HAVE A HEADLINE
WITHIN THE ARTICLE THAT SAYS,
LET'S COUNT GRAINS OF SALT.
IF
HILLARY IS WINNING BY 11 POINTS
AS THE POLLS SHOWED MONTHS AGO,
THEN YOU ARE NOT DOING GRAINS OF
SALT.
YOU ARE NOT WRITING
HEADLINES ABOUT
HYPERVENTILATING, ETC., THAT IS
HER WINNING BY DOUBLE DIGITS.
NOW THAT SHE IS TIRED OR LOSING,
JUST CALM DOWN, NO NEED TO
PANIC.
LOTS OF GRAINS OF SALT.
CONTINUING --
>> SNAPSHOT, DING DING.
>> WE ALL UNDERSTAND THAT,
NOBODY THINKS THE ELECTION IS
TOMORROW.
WE KNOW IT IS IN
NOVEMBER, YOU ARE NOT DOING
GROUNDBREAKING JOURNALISM BY
TELLING US THAT.
WHAT THIS SHOWS
YOU AS, RIGHT NOW THINGS ARE NOT
DOING WELL SO IF YOU DON'T
ADJUST MAYBE THESE NUMBERS GET
WORSE, WHICH IS AN IDEA THEY
DON'T EVEN CONTEMPLATE.
OF
COURSE IT WILL GET BETTER.
EVERY
ASSUMPTION IN HERE IS THAT IT
WILL GET BETTER.
I HOPE IT DOES
BECAUSE I CAN'T STAND DONALD
TRUMP, I THINK HE IS A MANIAC.
BUT ASSUMING THAT IN THE FACE OF
EVIDENCE GOING IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION IS JUST HUBRIS, THAT
IS THE STATUS QUO BIAS.
THE
SECOND PROBLEM I HAVE IS, IT IS
NOT A SNAPSHOT.
IN THEIR OWN
ARTICLE BUT HAVE THIS GRAPH, A
COMBINATION OF POLLS -- THAT IS
FROM JANUARY TO NOW.
THE CLEAR
TREND IS CLINTON GOING DOWN,
TRUMP COMING UP.
NOW THEY HAVE
MET IN THE MIDDLE.
THAT APPEARS
TO BE A TREND, THAT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A SNAPSHOT TO ME.
BUT
HEAR NO EVIL, SEE NO EVIL,
REPORT NO EVIL.
LOOK AT THE
FRAMING EVEN THOUGH IS THE
KNOWLEDGE THAT THE COMBINATION
OF POLLS HAS HER TIED WITH HIM
--
>> THEY CAN'T BRING THEMSELVES
TO SAY HE IS LEADING.
THAT IS
ALMOST A TIE SO IT IS NOT LIKE
HE IS LEADING.
I AGREE TRUMP IS
A BUFFOON BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN
YOU SHOULD WRITE IT
DISMISSIVELY.
ACCORDING TO THE
POLLS, WHICH BY THE WAY ARE A
REALITY OF WHAT AMERICANS ARE
THINKING TODAY, THE CHANCES ARE
PRETTY GOOD STANDING AT ABOUT
50-50 NO MATTER HOW MUCH YOU
DON'T WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT.
SO
HERE COMES THE EXCUSES.
MORE
EXCUSES --
>> BLAME BERNIE.
THIS PART I HAD
NOT READ, YOU KNEW THEY WOULD
BLAME BERNIE AT SOME POINT, THEY
WROTE IT IN THE TEXT OF THE
ARTICLE AND THEN THEY QUOTE AN
EXPERT, WHO SAYS BERNIE IS
BEATING HER UP, EVERYTHING WILL
BE FINE WHEN WE GET RID OF THAT
PESKY GUY.
MORE HEADLINES FROM
THAT SAME ARTICLE, THE BIG STUFF
HASN'T HAPPENED YET.
SOPHISTICATED THINKING AT NPR.
ANALYSIS, THESE ARE ALL SUB
HEADLINES IN THE ARTICLE, LATE
MAY POLLING IS HISTORICALLY BAD.
EVERYBODY KNOWS.
NORMALLY WE ARE
ON THE SIDE OF LOGIC AND REASON
AND NUMBERS AND FACTS, EXCEPT IN
MAY.
EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU SHOULD
NOT ACT RATIONALLY IN MAY.
HISTORICALLY BAD NUMBERS.
THEN
THEY GET ANOTHER EXPERT IN
POLLING --
>> IF THIS IS THE ONLY THING
THEY MENTION IN THE CONTEXT OF
AN ARTICLE SAYING THIS IS SUPER
INTERESTING, THIS GUY DOWN TRUMP
WHO HAS NEGATIVE NUMBERS, WHO
HAS ATTACKED SO MANY DIFFERENT
ETHNIC GROUPS, BUT AT THIS POINT
HE IS BASICALLY TIED WITH
HILLARY, THAT IS AMAZING, BUT
LET'S TEMPER IT BY SAYING HERE
IS THE HISTORICAL DATA ON MAY
POLLING, I WOULD SAY THAT IS
CONTEXT, I NEED THAT CONTEXT.
BUT THE CONTEXT IS, DON'T WORRY
ABOUT IT, DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO
POLLING.
WHEN IT IS INCONVENIENT
TO THE ESTABLISHMENT WE WILL
PRETEND IT DOESN'T HAPPEN.
THIS
IS NOT THE FIRST ROUND OF THIS,
THIS IS THE SECOND ROUND.
BECAUSE A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO A
NEW BATCH OF POLLS SHOWED DONALD
TRUMP CLOSING IN, THAT IS WHEN
EVEN NATE SILVER, WHOSE ENTIRE
CAREER IS ABOUT POLLING, SAID
DON'T HYPERVENTILATE AND IGNORE
THE POLLING.
THAT IS YOUR WHOLE
CAREER.
YOU ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO
IGNORE THE POLLING.
WHAT
ICEBERG?
I DON'T SEE AN ICEBERG.
BUT THEY HAVE ONE CAVEAT, THEY
GO ALL THROUGH THESE REASONS WHY
YOU SHOULD NOT TRUST THE
NUMBERS, THEY SAY DUKAKIS WAS UP
AT THIS POINT, AND THAT WAS
DECADES AGO WHEN EVERYBODY GOT
THEIR INFORMATION FROM
TELEVISION, BUT THE KNOWLEDGE A
SMIDGEN OF THAT AND THEN THEY
SAY THIS --
>> 
THAT MEANS THAT THEIR OPINION
WILL BE VERY HARD TO MOVE.
IT IS
NOT LIKE DUKAKIS.
WE KNOW WHO
HILLARY CLINTON IS AND WHO
DONALD TRUMP IS.
SO ALL OF YOUR
HISTORICAL MAY NUMBERS ARE CRAP.
THE REALITY IS, 97% OF AMERICANS
KNOW THESE PEOPLE AND HAVE FIRM
OPINIONS ON THEM, SO THIS
POLLING IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
ACCURATE.
BUT THEY CAN'T HELP
IT, THEY WILL ADD THEIR BUT AT
THE END.
THEY EXPLAIN, BY THE
WAY, BERNIE SANDERS DOES BETTER
AGAINST TRUMP.
THEY HAVE TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT A LITTLE BIT,
BUT THEY GO --
>> IN OTHER WORDS, EVERYBODY IN
THE ESTABLISHMENT AGREES, EVEN
THOUGH HIS NUMBERS ARE MUCH
BETTER, LEAGUES BETTER ON
FAVORABILITY AND ON WHO ARE YOU
GOING TO VOTE FOR, AND AMONG
INDEPENDENTS, IT IS SUCH TRIED
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT THEY
PASS OFF AS, YOU PROBABLY
HAVEN'T THOUGHT OF THIS BUT DID
YOU KNOW THAT THE REPUBLICANS
WILL ATTACK BERNIE SANDERS?
WOW.
THAT IS SOME COGENT ANALYSIS.
I
NEVER CONSIDERED THAT.
BUT THEY
HAVE ALREADY ATTACKED HILLARY
AND HER NUMBERS ARE DISASTROUS.
WHILE PICK SOMEONE WHO IS
ALREADY DISASTROUS?
AND THEY
WERE FURTHER ATTACKED HILLARY
CLINTON ON BILL CLINTON, ON THE
CLINTON GLOBAL FUND, THERE WILL
ATTACK THAT SHE IS UNDER AN FBI
INVESTIGATION.
YOU CAN TELL ME
NOT TO SAY THAT, YOU CAN'T TELL
DONALD TRUMP NOT TO SAY THAT.
YOU THINK BERNIE SANDERS HASN'T
BEEN ATTACKED?
WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE WHAT TRUMP DOES TO HILLARY
CLINTON.
BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT
CANNOT HAVE BERNIE SANDERS, AND
IF HILLARY IS LOSING
THEY WILL DENY IT.
AND MY FAVORITE QUOTE IS THE
LAST ONE --
>> THAT IS HILARIOUS.
THEY ARE
LIKE, YES, SANDERS DOES BETTER
AGAINST DONALD TRUMP BUT TO BE
FAIR THEY ARE REALLY
UNFAVORABLE, AND PEOPLE LIKE
HIM, THEY DON'T LIKE THEM.
YES,
I THINK THAT IS THE REASON YOU
MIGHT WANT HIM AS YOUR NOMINEE.
THAT IS NOT A BUT, THAT IS A
BECAUSE.
YOU PICK SANDERS
BECAUSE THEY HAVE HIGH
UNFAVORABLE ABILITY AND SANDERS
HAS HAD HIGH FAVORABILITY.
THEY
ARE SO BLINDED BY THEIR BIAS
THEY CAN'T SEE STRAIGHT.
BUT WE
CAN, AND THE NUMBERS ARE CLEAR.
SO EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT FOR
BERNIE SANDERS, YOU ARE THE
BIGGEST HILLARY FAN THERE IS, WE
ARE TELLING YOU, BE CAREFUL.
WHETHER YOU LIKE TO ADMIT IT OR
NOT, YOU ARE LOOKING STRAIGHT AT
AN ICEBERG, AND IF YOU DENY IT
THE CHANCE OF HITTING THE
ICEBERG IS MUCH HIGHER.
DON'T
SAY WE DIDN'T WARN YOU.
