okay so this week there's another
spaceflight news episode we hope you
forgive us but there were really some
topics that we still wanted to talk
about and that we couldn't talk about in
Monday's episode and don't worry of
course we don't forget our beloved
electric cars next week we will talk
about electric car news again
so the cargo dragon capsule now
successfully docked to the ISS on
December 8th making the CRS-19 mission to
the ISS a full success then Boeing
Starliner launch is now set for the 20th
of December and the wet-dress launch
rehearsal was already performed on the
6th of December meanwhile the crew dragon
in flight abort test might still take place
this year with a bit of luck so when can
we then finally see the Crew Dragon ferry
the first astronauts to the ISS and not
long ago we did a future space timeline
of events which admittedly got a bit out
of hand towards the end but surprisingly
many people still liked it
therefore this time we will try to do
a future timeline on when and how Mars
colonization will happen so stay tuned
for these highly interesting space news
and now this time not even so
unrealistic timeline
now last week on December 5th a falcon 9
successfully lifted off SpaceX's Cape
Canaveral LC-40 launch pad successfully
injecting the cargo Dragon capsule into
low-earth orbit the cargo dragon have
now successfully docked with the ISS on
December 8th the Falcon 9 landed not
even 10 minutes later on the drone ship
OCISLY we will now always call it OCISLY because of course I still love
you is just far too long for us making
it the 39th successful Falcon 9 landing 39th
and keep in mind Falcon 9 only exists
since 9 years and the first Falcon 9
booster landings took place astoundingly
only four years ago and now this has
already become totally routine this is
how fast reusable rocket technology has
actually progressed this is what the
aggressive engineering approach and
philosophy at SpaceX is enabling fail
often fail hard but become really really
good really fast in the process so the
cargo dragon will stay docked to the ISS
for a few weeks until re-entering the
Earth's atmosphere again around the 6th
of January marking this cargo capsule's
third successful mission to the ISS
and a funny coincidence is that only 24
hours after the Falcon 9 liftoff
a Soyuz rocket started from Baikonur
spaceport with a progress spacecraft
also to resupply the ISS now contrary to the Dragon the progress will
be docked to the ISS for a few months it
will then at some point re-enter Earth's
atmosphere and completely burn up
because it's not reusable meanwhile over
at Cape Canaveral the Starliner CST-100
capsule is now firmly mounted on top of
a ULA Atlas V rocket and the
preparations are underway for the first
uncrewed test flight for the Starliner
on the 20th of December where the
Starliner will dock to the ISS the same
way the crew Dragon already did more
than half a year ago a wet-dress launch
rehearsal was already performed on the
6th of December in that rehearsal
the Atlas V rocket was fueled the entire
launch count down was practiced and
everything went well
so the chances seem very good that we
will still see the Starliner docked to
the ISS by the end of this year
now just imagine we will see a cargo
dragon a progress cargo freighter and a
Starliner docked to the ISS by the end
of this year that will certainly be
quite a sight to behold now as you can
imagine
SpaceX is meanwhile of course not
sleeping and they want to make sure that
they will be the first ones ferrying
astronauts to the ISS by the way the
first time from US soil again since
almost a decade now in order to make
sure that this timeline holds and that
the first crewed flights to the ISS with
crew dragon take place before Starliner
will also ferry astronauts to the ISS in
2020 the very important in flight abort
test of crew dragon is scheduled to
take place as soon as possible although
we now have the latest info that the
earliest possible date will be the 4th
of January that would mean that crewed
flights to the ISS will probably already
start taking place before the mid of
2020 and that would be amazing
ok now enough of this mundane low-earth
orbit space flight stuff who cares about
the ISS right after all it's all in
large part the freaking ISS's fault that
we don't have our beloved moon bases yet
what we do care about however is how and
when we are finally going to land on
Mars and establish permanent bases there
so we already did a timeline in this
video here a few weeks ago but this time
we want to focus on Mars and not
venture into the too distant future as
then it becomes more and more wild
sci-fi and in the end it becomes really
impossible to say what might really
happen so let's start now we think we
will see the Mk3 starship prototype
reach orbit in 2020 and assembly of the
super-heavy booster by late 2020 maybe
early 2021 now sometime in 2021
we might see the first flight of
super-heavy together with starship
probably the even lighter and more
advanced Mk4 and what better way to
demonstrate the superior capabilities
of the new starship by trying to
directly land the Mk4 starship prototype
on the moon in 2021
therefore we think that the first cargo
mission to the moon will actually take
place already in that year 2021 but
still without orbital refueling now in
order to max out payload the MK4
then lands on the moon and remains there
already serving as a future moon base
shelter in itself because I mean this
thing has a gigantic interior
pressurized volume of thousand cubic
meters this thing is already a huge moon
base shelter in itself now hopefully we
will also see some moon versions of
cybertruck being deployed along with a
few Bigelow habitat modules which would
be really nice because we think they are
very good choice for setting up a base
on the moon then in 2022 orbital
refueling is tested and perfected in
order to drastically increase payload
capacity to the surface of the moon
another starship lands there delivering
even more cargo starship and super heavy
production seriously starts to ramp up
because new giant revenue streams from
starlink start pouring in by that time
also in 2022 a Mars orbit transfer
window arises and we think that Elon
already wants to send at least one
probably even two starship towards Mars
in that time frame where they would
arrive half a year later one might fail
to land the other one might successfully aerobrake and land delivering the
first cargo to the Erebus Montes region one of the preferred future
landing sites on Mars meanwhile
the success of starship on the moon
leads to NASA embracing more and more
the idea to validate starship for crewed
Artemis missions to the moon
Yusaku Maezawa's privately funded
Dearmoon mission in 2023 further convinces NASA to charter starship for the moon
landing in 2024 Voices to scrap SLS
altogether are getting louder and louder
in the 2024 Mars time window two further unmanned cargo starships
will be sent towards Mars delivering power modules cybertruck design
based Mars rovers propellant plants
expandable habitats solar-powered drones
and 3d regolith printers to the
Erebus Montes region where said
drones already start to prepare Mars bases for the arrival of future
colonists 3d printed regolith domes
will first serve as radiation protection
against solar and cosmic rays together
with the thicker atmosphere at Erebus
offering enough protection for the
first Mars colonists now then finally in
2024 starship then lands the first
astronauts on the moon further
validating starship as the space transport
system of choice with a lunar colony
being built immediately afterwards using
also the cargo and shelter provided by
the two starships that landed in 2021 and
2022 respectively now in the 2026 window
then the first crewed flight to Mars
with a new version of specially designed
radiation shielded starships insulated
with the newest hydrogenated boron
nitride nanotubes shielding takes place
consisting of two starships being
attached to one another and rotating
around their common center of gravity in
order to create artificial gravity for
the Mars trip now this latest iteration
of starships then will also have the
capability for an earth return trip as
their mass will actually be low enough
made possible by further refining the 30
times cold rolled steel used for
starship and further decreasing the
weight because propellant generated from
the propellant plants is ready by then
the starships then being refueled and
sent back to earth in the next time
window the three cargo starships from
the 2022 and 2024 time windows then
serve as secondary bases and backup
shelters in 2028 further starships
arrive bringing more and more colonists
to the now growing Erebus Mars base
the first Mars designed Boring machine
arrives by that time in disassembled
form where after assembly work on the
first
underground rotational habitats starts
every base on Mars is now planned to have
the living quarters underground for
better radiation protection and for
overcoming detrimental low-gravity
effects by means of rotation in situ
resource utilization is being perfected
more and more ores and minerals are
being harvested for use directly on Mars
by 2030 the Erebus base has grown into
a small colony with over a hundred
inhabitants regular starship travel to
and from Earth is being established by
that time new modes of propulsion such
as starship 2.0 with nuclear thermal
engines might drastically shorten the
voyage times thus dramatically
increasing the amount of people that can
be transported to Mars by 2032 the
Erebus colony has grown beyond thousand
people new colonies are being built
spreading out from the Erebus site
an underground net of hyperloops is
established connecting the colonies now
by the end of the 2030s in this scenario
we could see the population of Mars
growing beyond ten thousand people now
granted here we get more and more into
speculative sci-fi territory and
actually everything beyond two years in
the future probably already is but
looking at how far SpaceX has actually
come in the last ten years it is not
unreasonable to assume that this
timeline might actually happen in a
similar way of course with the
possibility of a few years of delay but
still it might kind of play out like
this and of course the only relevant
vehicle the only one that will make this
happen is starship and none other so
what do you think about our future Mars
colonization timeline are we being too
optimistic or do you think it's realistic
I think it's extremely realistic and 100
percent accurate 100% of like confirmed
hundred percent approved by Elon and
who do you think will make it first to
the ISS Spacex's crew dragon or Boeing's
Starliner
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honest opinions on the latest
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will tell them right so see you next
time see you
